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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go, we're throwing.

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Speaker 2: In, so we're sitting up to cash to stop. We

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Speaker 2: see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go

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Speaker 2: to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible being bank, small bank, I like to make money.

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Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate kabine.

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Speaker 3: You want to pass.

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Speaker 1: And we are under way. Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 4: We are back for week three Best Bets from the

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Speaker 4: one and only Brandon Anderson.

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Speaker 1: If this is your first week tuning in, welcome.

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Speaker 4: The structure of these Best Bets episodes are very simple.

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Speaker 4: Each week Brandon will bring his best bets for the

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Speaker 4: upcoming slate. You can find Brandon and the free award

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Speaker 4: winning Action Network app. We're he'll track his picks from

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Speaker 4: this podcast, any futures, award bets, et cetera. You can

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Speaker 4: find all of his article there as well actionnetwork dot Com.

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Speaker 4: We encourage you to get the app a lot easier

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Speaker 4: to track picks and read content. Brendan glas Sheen in

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Speaker 4: the host chair. All right, Brandon, this is the week.

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Speaker 4: There's a theme of the week. Last week's theme, Uh,

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Speaker 4: we're gonna throw that away and move on to this

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Speaker 4: week's theme, which is what.

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Speaker 3: It is, kitchen sink week, Brandon, and this is one

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Speaker 3: of my favorite weeks to bet in the NFL. So

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Speaker 3: kitchen sink is about the teams are zero and two.

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Speaker 3: We got nine teams that are oh and two. I

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Speaker 3: have an article up and Action Network looking at the futures.

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Speaker 3: If you're oh and two, you're only about eleven percent

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Speaker 3: to make the playoffs. So that's effectively one and nine.

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Speaker 3: We probably get one of those nine teams to get in.

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Speaker 3: You're about da if you go to on three. So

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Speaker 3: that is a kitchen sink week. You gotta do everything

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Speaker 3: you can to get this win. By the way I

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Speaker 3: rank those teams most likely to make the playoffs, I

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Speaker 3: like Titans fifteen to one to make the to win

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Speaker 3: the division and maybe be the team that comes back

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Speaker 3: from h to two. So here's the thing. You play

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Speaker 3: them in the future, but you especially play them week three.

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Speaker 3: This is the kitchen sink spot where they've got to

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Speaker 3: pull out all the stops over the last Since twenty ten,

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Speaker 3: teams are zero and two straight up against a team

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Speaker 3: that has won at least one game, So just not

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Speaker 3: another to two team fifty three thirty two and two

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Speaker 3: against the spread sixty two percent. It's even a little

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Speaker 3: bit higher, close to two out of three over the

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Speaker 3: last decade. And then within that, I've got a lot

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Speaker 3: of other kind of subtrends. I'm like, Okay, well, what

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Speaker 3: makes the trend even stronger. Turns out, it's better if

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Speaker 3: the oh and two team was favor last game, or

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Speaker 3: if the team they're facing was an underdog last game.

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Speaker 3: It's better with low totals. It's better if you're facing

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Speaker 3: a one to one team, not a two and oh team.

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Speaker 3: So I got a bunch of those things. I ranked them.

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Speaker 3: I ranked the team of who fits the trend best.

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Speaker 3: So here are the nine teams in the order that

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Speaker 3: I ranked them on who best fits the kitchen sink trend,

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Speaker 3: and I we'll get to some of the picks I'm doing.

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Speaker 3: So the best fit to me is the Rams, oh

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Speaker 3: and two. Then Ravens, Giants, Colts, Panthers, Titans, Bengals, Jaguars,

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Speaker 3: and Broncos. Those are in nine. They are all none

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Speaker 3: of them are facing each other. So those are the

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Speaker 3: kitchen sink teams. And for the first half of the

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Speaker 3: pod today, I've got some kitchen sink bets that I

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Speaker 3: will be making.

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Speaker 1: Okay, very good, very good.

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Speaker 4: So with that in mind and knowing how you feel

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Speaker 4: about those zero and two's, and then of course you

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Speaker 4: got to evaluate the line.

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Speaker 1: And one team you mentioned, the Rams.

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Speaker 4: Their spot's fascinating because of the injuries on both sides,

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Speaker 4: and I think some folks are thinking, do I even want.

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Speaker 1: To go near that game? But you've got an angle

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Speaker 1: that you want to loop in.

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Speaker 4: So let's go pick one best bets under the kitchen sink.

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Speaker 1: What do we got?

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Speaker 3: This is your best bet? Yeah, I'm gonna play the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: I'll take the money line. It's at minus one away

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Speaker 3: against the Cowboys in Dallas. This is my favorite kitchen

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Speaker 3: sink game on the slate. I had to actually keep

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Speaker 3: reminding myself this week this is a kitchen week game

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Speaker 3: because it doesn't seem like the Ravens should be going

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Speaker 3: to It's like the first time in a decade for them.

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Speaker 3: And I had this at circles evenfore the season. This

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Speaker 3: is a classic late afternoon Cowboys letdown spot against the

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Speaker 3: top team. Like, how many times have we seen this

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Speaker 3: game now in the last year alone. Here's some Cowboys

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Speaker 3: scores for you Niners. Forty two to ten, Bill's thirty

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Speaker 3: one to ten, Packers forty eight to sixteen in the

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Speaker 3: playoffs for a couple of garbage time touchdowns Saints forty

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Speaker 3: four to nineteen. Last week we said blowout. Whoops, wrong

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Speaker 3: side of that one. Cowboys did get blown Now they

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Speaker 3: keep doing that. Dallas does not run the football that well,

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Speaker 3: So this is going to be on really dak against

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Speaker 3: a pretty good defense, a sophisticated defense with really only

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Speaker 3: one weapon. Ceedee Lamb's banged up. We expect him to play,

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Speaker 3: but he and Trayvon Diggs are both kind of they're

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Speaker 3: not practicing much. Go forget Durun Bland is already out.

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Speaker 3: So that's both the top two corners for Dallas. This

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Speaker 3: is a top heavy team and that just the stars

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Speaker 3: and scrubs approach is not looking so hot right now.

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Speaker 3: On the other side, Lamar Jackson, I think that's a

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Speaker 3: real test for this Mike Zimmer defense that quite frankly

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Speaker 3: failed the test the most fail way you could against

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Speaker 3: the Saints last week. Dallas's second to last in run

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Speaker 3: defense DVOA. So I think Lamar should be able to

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Speaker 3: run and Derrick Henry should be able to run and

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Speaker 3: then kitchen sink. Some of the spots here, sixty five

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Speaker 3: percent of the best right now are on the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: You like a public team here with the kitchen sink

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Speaker 3: seventy percent against the spread. Seventy three percent ATS of

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Speaker 3: a kitchen sink team is favored in the previous game,

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Speaker 3: which the Ravens were seventy nine percent against the spread

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Speaker 3: if they scored at least seventeen both of their games.

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Speaker 3: Ravens are getting on the board. They've just got a

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Speaker 3: little unlucky in these games. And then my single best

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Speaker 3: kitchen sink indicator if the opponent is on a one

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Speaker 3: game losing streak, so it's a one on one team

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Speaker 3: they just lost. That's the Cowboys twenty three four and

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Speaker 3: a one ATS for the Ravens in the spot eighty

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Speaker 3: five percent, So that would these are all ATS trends.

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Speaker 3: Ravens are minus one. Why I am going to take

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Speaker 3: the minus one if I just play the money line

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Speaker 3: at minus one a wait, effectively almost the same price.

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Speaker 3: So I don't mind the ATS, but I will play

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Speaker 3: the money line Ravens to get the win. That's my

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Speaker 3: top kitchen sink play of the week.

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Speaker 1: That's fascinating.

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Speaker 4: I would think if Dallas had won against New Orleans,

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Speaker 4: you're probably getting a better number with Baltimore as an

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Speaker 4: zero to two team. But then again, we start playing

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Speaker 4: that game Baltimore. Should it be the Raiders last week?

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Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson twenty and one in his career against the

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Speaker 4: NFC too. I mean, remember the game last year against

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Speaker 4: the Lions that was in Baltimore. But this is a

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Speaker 4: road spot the NFC. Their eyes widen when they have

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Speaker 4: to face Lamar Jackson, historically your second pick.

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Speaker 3: It's kind of smelly, very smelly.

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Speaker 1: The New York Giants, So what now? Look, I get

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Speaker 1: the kitchen sync theme, but what what do they even

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Speaker 1: have in their kitchen? The Giants? Like, do they have

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Speaker 1: anything available? Dish, soap, any of it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, honestly, this is as much about the opponent as

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Speaker 3: it is about the Giants. Me the Giants plus six

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Speaker 3: and a half at the Browns. Look, we played this

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Speaker 3: game already on the hot reed. We took the under,

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Speaker 3: I had the under forty. So that's the first start.

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Speaker 3: We're catching a touchdown with a total we're expecting under forty.

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Speaker 3: That's already a good spot for us. And really, this

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Speaker 3: is less about the Giants. It's more about the Browns,

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Speaker 3: and it's really entirely a systems play. The Browns just

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Speaker 3: I don't think I've played well enough to being a

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Speaker 3: touchdown favored here. The defense we like. That's part of

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Speaker 3: why I like the under Only twelve in DVA so far,

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Speaker 3: so not much after two weeks, but that includes bottom

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Speaker 3: quarter of the league against their run. I think the

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Speaker 3: Giants can find a little bit of footing enough to

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Speaker 3: move the ball some. The one thing that the Giants

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Speaker 3: are pretty good at is their defensive front. The Browns

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Speaker 3: old line has not played that well so far. The

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Speaker 3: tackles are been banged up and not doing well. Deshaun

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Speaker 3: Watson outdoors looks like a windy game. That's usually a

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Speaker 3: spot we like to play against. So back to the

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Speaker 3: trends here, this is really just a trends play more

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Speaker 3: than anything. Kitchen Sink Giants are another public side we

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Speaker 3: like that seventy one percent ats Kitchen Sink teams with

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Speaker 3: the total forty two or below. This is one about

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Speaker 3: the Browns. Here. If the opponent in a Kitchen Sink

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Speaker 3: game was the underdog the last game, seventy two percent

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Speaker 3: ats here if the opponent is averaging eighteen points or

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Speaker 3: less like the Browns seventy nine percent ATS. And then

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Speaker 3: the thing is, too the Giants are not just owing

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Speaker 3: too straight up, they're own to ats. I gotta hold

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Speaker 3: buch trends for that too, so I'm gonna list them

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Speaker 3: all off. I just have like a slew of trends

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Speaker 3: outside of the Week three stuff. Brian Dable and Danny Dimes.

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Speaker 3: We like them as underdogs, we like them after they lose.

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Speaker 3: We like Danny Dimes as a road underdog sixty eight

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Speaker 3: percent ATS. It just all lines up here. And then

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Speaker 3: last week we talked about the six and six and

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Speaker 3: a half point underdogs for the road teams. This is

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Speaker 3: that one again too. We actually saw these big underdogs

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Speaker 3: keep on winning these games. So you thought it was

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Speaker 3: ugly before, Brandon, I'm gonna want up you here. That

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Speaker 3: BAT is Giants plus six and a half. But those teams,

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Speaker 3: the six to six and a half point road dogs

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Speaker 3: money line money line ROI when the total is forty

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Speaker 3: two or below is thirty five percent on the ROI.

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Speaker 3: Eight of the nine wins since twenty ten have actually

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Speaker 3: been by six or more points. So you think you're

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Speaker 3: gonna eke out this ugly, low scoring win because the

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Speaker 3: totals low. Actually that's not true. Normally these ugly games

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Speaker 3: have a somewhat comfortable winner. So it's gross, it's disgusting.

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Speaker 3: But we are sprinkling Brandon money with the money line. No, no, no, no,

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Speaker 3: We're gonna make it worth our time. Giants minus five

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Speaker 3: and a half. Giants win by six, are better plus

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Speaker 3: six thirty and a little bonus sprinkle for you. Same

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Speaker 3: pick on the Broncos kitchen sink. Broncos minus five and

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Speaker 3: a half plus six hundred, just a little sprinkle on

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Speaker 3: an ugly, nasty win against two teams the Bucks in

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Speaker 3: the in the Denver's case and the Browns here that

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Speaker 3: I think are just a little bit overrated by the books.

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Speaker 4: Wow, I was wrong on guessing your uh your sprinkle

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Speaker 4: all right?

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Speaker 1: Very good. So Giants plus six and a half.

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Speaker 4: Sprinkle on the minus five and a half in the

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Speaker 4: same case for Denver this week against Tampa Bay in

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Speaker 4: Tampa last one, going back to the Well despite injuries

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Speaker 4: to Deebo, Samuel and Christian McCaffrey, who was placed on IR. Technically,

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Speaker 4: Deebo is listed as doubtful, but the forty nine Ers

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Speaker 4: can bounce back and send the Rams to zero to three.

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Speaker 4: There's history here, of course, between Shanahana McVay.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna play the Niners team total again. We

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Speaker 3: played this exact bet last week. It did not hit

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Speaker 3: for us. But I'm gonna tell you why we like

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Speaker 3: it again. It's over twenty six and a half at

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Speaker 3: the Rams. Now. Look, the Rams are a bulls eye

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Speaker 3: on the kitchen sink trends. They were the first team

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Speaker 3: I said when I listed off in order it's a

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Speaker 3: division game. They love that one. The Niners lost last week,

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Speaker 3: so that's the l one streak. The Rams got blown out.

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Speaker 3: That's eighty seven percent ats for those kitchen sink teams.

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Speaker 3: If you just want to stop and say, okay, I

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Speaker 3: got it, I'm in on the Ram. Forget the rest

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Speaker 3: of this. I don't blame you. I can't do it

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Speaker 3: because the Rams are in the hospital right now. Like

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Speaker 3: both receivers are out, Pukinakua and Cooper Cup. The offensive

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Speaker 3: line is in shambles. The defense we know is not

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Speaker 3: great like that has been. That's been the cap on

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Speaker 3: the Rams all before the season started, even and like

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Speaker 3: you said, Kyle Shanahan has dominated Sean McVay. This has

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Speaker 3: been a matchup that you keep playing the Niners. We've

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Speaker 3: done this for years on this podcast. So I can't

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Speaker 3: play the Niners either. That's the great kitchen sing spot

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Speaker 3: for the Rams, and the Niners are missing CMC and Debo.

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Speaker 3: So I'm back to the spot where we were last week.

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Speaker 3: If I think the Niners are going to win the game,

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Speaker 3: I think that they have to score also, like that's

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Speaker 3: how this team goes. So the Rams defense of the

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Speaker 3: week the week link here. When the Niners win last season,

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Speaker 3: they scored twenty four or more every single win. Now

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Speaker 3: it didn't work for us last week? Why not? They

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Speaker 3: didn't win, So that already shot the gonna go for

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Speaker 3: us anyway. And if you look at it, the Niners

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Speaker 3: scored seventeen against the Vikings. They turned the ball over

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Speaker 3: four times, three times in Minnesota territory. One of those

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Speaker 3: would turnover on downs on a fifteen play eighty eight

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Speaker 3: yard drive. They got nothing out of it. In fact,

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Speaker 3: they gave up a ninety seven yard score to Justin

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Speaker 3: Jefferson right after that cost them the game. Basically, so

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Speaker 3: maybe this team is just not hitting normally, if you

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Speaker 3: do that sort of mistakes, it probably is just kind

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Speaker 3: of a fluke week. And that's the Brian Flores Vikings defense.

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Speaker 3: These are the Rams, a lot less talent to deal

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Speaker 3: with here. The Niners win. They won last year fourteen wins,

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Speaker 3: twenty seven or more points, all but one of those

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Speaker 3: wins almost thirty three points a game when they win.

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Speaker 3: So no escalator this time. We're trying to get some

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Speaker 3: wins this week, Brendan. Unless you think the Niners lose

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Speaker 3: like they did last week, they're gonna win. The way

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Speaker 3: to play the proxy win is skip the minus seven,

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Speaker 3: just take the team total over the twenty six and

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Speaker 3: a half.

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Speaker 1: Okay, very good.

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Speaker 4: Kyle Shanahan and ten and five in his career against

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Speaker 4: Sean McVay, so he tends to have success head to head.

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Speaker 1: In division play.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned Denver as a spot that you want to

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Speaker 4: come back in on Denver, not taking the Denver plus

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Speaker 4: six and a half, but actually going to Denver minus

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Speaker 4: five and a half against Tampa in a kitchen sink

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Speaker 4: spot for Sean Peyton and bow Nix. Any other quick

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Speaker 4: thoughts before we move.

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Speaker 3: On, Yeah, just the kitchen sink spots I'm looking at

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Speaker 3: if the Broncos get to seven and a half, the

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Speaker 3: Jaguars Monday Night get to six, those would be bets

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Speaker 3: for now, their leans for me, Colt's money line another lean. Again,

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Speaker 3: these are kitchen sink spots, so you want to just

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Speaker 3: kind of play the trend if it's there. Panthers and

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Speaker 3: Titans are teams I mentioned. I've already invested futures in

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Speaker 3: those teams. I need to win anyway, so I don't

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Speaker 3: need to play those extra I cannot beg you to

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Speaker 3: invest in the Panthers one more time. We've already done it.

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Speaker 3: So let's see if we can just get a win

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Speaker 3: on the table. That's it for kitchen sink this year.

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Speaker 1: You know what I'm saying.

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Speaker 4: Okay, next round of bets here from Brandon, Rapid Fire, Lightning.

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Speaker 3: Round the.

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Speaker 4: Best bets Brandon outside of the kitchen, sink, the pantry, dishwasher, whatever.

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Speaker 4: Keep the household theme going here, but explain to the

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Speaker 4: audience why these particular picks kind of segue off of

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Speaker 4: the kitchen sink theme. There's a reason why that these

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Speaker 4: fit under another umbrella, but they transition nicely here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So the first one is we're gonna go to

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Speaker 3: Sunday Night We'll take the Chiefs minus three at the Falcons,

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Speaker 3: and look, the Chiefs actually avoided a kitchen sink game

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Speaker 3: from the Falcons here thanks to that late Monday night comeback. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: for the against the Eagles, and I think interestingly here,

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Speaker 3: so this was our look ahead a week ago. We

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Speaker 3: got the Chiefs minus three and a half. That's the

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Speaker 3: prevailing line available everywhere. So you might to think, oh,

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Speaker 3: that one we didn't get well, we didn't do well

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Speaker 3: in the look at it. Well, I beg to differ.

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Speaker 3: The Chiefs almost lost, probably should have. The Falcons won

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Speaker 3: and looked much better, and it's still at the same

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Speaker 3: line that tells me that we were already on the

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Speaker 3: right side. This was moving that way, and I think

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Speaker 3: it's buying us value that the Falcons got that late comeback,

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Speaker 3: even though they probably should have lost the game. So

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Speaker 3: Kirk Cousins obviously looks a lot better Monday night, much

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Speaker 3: much better than week one. Did that against an underperforming

336
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Speaker 3: Eagles defensive front, not much pass rush, a pretty vanilla

337
00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:34,320
Speaker 3: Vic Fangios scheme help out against Steve Spagnello and all

338
00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:37,280
Speaker 3: that pressure helpout against Chris Jones up front. This is

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Speaker 3: a very different sort of test for the Falcons, and

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Speaker 3: I think Kansas City is going to make sure that

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Speaker 3: Kirk shows he's ready more than Philadelphia did. Falcons defense

342
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Speaker 3: really doesn't stopped Pittsburgh or Philadelphia's offenses that much. They've

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Speaker 3: gotten some stops in the red zone, but both of

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00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:55,360
Speaker 3: those teams have moved the ball. And if Pittsburgh's moving

345
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Speaker 3: the ball and you're like they scored six times against

346
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Speaker 3: the Falcons all field goals, you don't want just and

347
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Speaker 3: fields and the Steelers and move the ball in you,

348
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Speaker 3: that's not great. Up next, Patrick Mahomes. Now, look, Isaiah

349
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Speaker 3: Pacheco is out. I don't mind. You can't run the

350
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Speaker 3: football all right? How about we give it to the

351
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Speaker 3: god playing quarterback and let him beat us instead against

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Speaker 3: a week pass defense. I actually feel like that could

353
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Speaker 3: fit the game script a little bit better. Come on,

354
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Speaker 3: we're really getting get two Kirk Cousins primetime wins in

355
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Speaker 3: a row in six days within each other against Patrick Mahomes.

356
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Speaker 3: I don't see it. So I mentioned the prevailing line

357
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Speaker 3: is a minus three and a half. You can play

358
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Speaker 3: that at like a minus one oh five. We can

359
00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:36,359
Speaker 3: play Chiefs minus three at minus one point fifteen that's

360
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,040
Speaker 3: ten cents to get down to the key number. There's

361
00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:40,880
Speaker 3: a couple of those out there. He doesn't make sense.

362
00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 3: Mahomes in his career as twelve wins by exactly a

363
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Speaker 3: field goal. I am happy to sacrifice ten cents on

364
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Speaker 3: the dollar to get that one and give us a

365
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Speaker 3: push if we need to. It is a road game,

366
00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,719
Speaker 3: it's tough. The Chiefs aren't playing that great, but I

367
00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:55,919
Speaker 3: think that they're the better team here. I think they

368
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Speaker 3: should win comfortably. We need to get some wins. Let's

369
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Speaker 3: be honest, it's been a rough couples. Let's get on

370
00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:03,159
Speaker 3: the board. So I'll sacrifice a little bit here and

371
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,199
Speaker 3: lock in that Chiefs minus three minus one fifteen. But

372
00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:07,679
Speaker 3: I don't mind the three and a half if you

373
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Speaker 3: need it.

374
00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:11,960
Speaker 4: Again not these are not kitchen sink games. But man,

375
00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,439
Speaker 4: it feels like the Lions had a missed opportunity with

376
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Speaker 4: the amount of scoring opportunities in that game against Tampa Bay,

377
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Speaker 4: and they're now laying a short number against the Cardinals team. Look,

378
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Speaker 4: I mean, they're one in one, but I was impressed

379
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Speaker 4: with how they played against Buffalo and then they.

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Speaker 1: Steamroll the Rams. W were banged up. We just talked

381
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Speaker 1: about the Rams earlier.

382
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Speaker 3: You like Detroit, I do, And I'm realizing this second

383
00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:35,439
Speaker 3: section here is really like a by low Sell high section.

384
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:37,959
Speaker 3: So I like Detroit minus two and a half at

385
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Speaker 3: the Cardinals. This was almost a hot repick for me.

386
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,200
Speaker 3: But the market is so high on the Cardinals that

387
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,800
Speaker 3: it's kept the line here. It actually is still teetering

388
00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 3: on the edge of just getting the two and a

389
00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:50,840
Speaker 3: half after that Rams win. But look, the Rams aren't

390
00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,199
Speaker 3: very good. The defense is not very good. I'm not

391
00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,720
Speaker 3: all that excited about the Cardinals beating them. I expected

392
00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,000
Speaker 3: the Cardinals to beat them. That is what I figured

393
00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 3: would come. Cardinals' best thing they do offensively has been

394
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:04,160
Speaker 3: the running game. They were number one DVA back half

395
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,040
Speaker 3: of last season once they got healthy. Lions are the

396
00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,399
Speaker 3: number one run defense last year, their top five so

397
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:11,879
Speaker 3: this year that has held up well for them, So

398
00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,719
Speaker 3: I think that offsets pretty well. Meanwhile, the Lions offense

399
00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,119
Speaker 3: is a little bit stuck. Let's be honest, one of

400
00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:19,920
Speaker 3: seven in the red zone. It'd be nice to get

401
00:19:19,920 --> 00:19:22,159
Speaker 3: some points on the board. But I'm gonna be a

402
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,080
Speaker 3: little less afraid of the one and a little more

403
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:26,600
Speaker 3: encouraged by the seven they made the red zone against

404
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,160
Speaker 3: a quality Bucks defense seven times. They're running the ball

405
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,959
Speaker 3: super well. I still think the Cardinals are among the

406
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 3: worst defenses in the league, maybe the worst defense in

407
00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:38,600
Speaker 3: the league. So I like the Lions offense better. I

408
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:42,240
Speaker 3: like the Lions defense better. Dan Campbell eight and three

409
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,119
Speaker 3: against the spread first three weeks of the season, sixty

410
00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 3: three percent ats as a favorite, sixty five percent ats

411
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,159
Speaker 3: after a loss with the Lions, and look the totals

412
00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:54,679
Speaker 3: fifty two. So there's a lot of points out there.

413
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,520
Speaker 3: We're probably just gonna win by a field goal. Detroit

414
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 3: has won four of their last nineteen Lions wins, though

415
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,760
Speaker 3: are by field goal in overtime. So again, the line

416
00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,399
Speaker 3: out there most books is minus three, but there's a

417
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,120
Speaker 3: minus three at a minus one oh two. I'm gonna

418
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:12,359
Speaker 3: play Lions minus two and a half. Let's get a

419
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:14,960
Speaker 3: win if we win by a field goal. That's at

420
00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,760
Speaker 3: minus one twelve ten cents. To get off a key

421
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,359
Speaker 3: number or get to a key number that is worth

422
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 3: it every single time we need some wins. Lions minus

423
00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 3: two and a half at the Cardinals.

424
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 4: Okay, Now there's an opposite of the kitchen sink there's

425
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 4: a two to zero team that I think, Hey, congrats

426
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:32,399
Speaker 4: off to a good start.

427
00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:33,919
Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara is back.

428
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Speaker 4: It seems one of the good stories I think really

429
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:38,720
Speaker 4: in the league. But the Saints, like, what do we

430
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 4: make of the Saints? And they host the Eagles, Brandon,

431
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 4: who are underdogs in this game, And I'm sorry, like,

432
00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 4: I know it's a week to week league, but can't

433
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:48,639
Speaker 4: get that Monday night.

434
00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:49,440
Speaker 1: Finish out of my head.

435
00:20:49,480 --> 00:20:53,000
Speaker 4: Never mind the play call, whatevert Barkley catches it, no

436
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:57,120
Speaker 4: one says anything, but then the soft defense coming back

437
00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 4: the other way. I don't know if the Eagles are

438
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,080
Speaker 4: fully listened to Nixon Arioti these days.

439
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 3: But you like Philadelphia, Yeah, Brandon. You know what I

440
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:06,719
Speaker 3: like about a great feel good story. I like betting

441
00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,439
Speaker 3: against it because we get to bet the narrative on

442
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:12,520
Speaker 3: the other side. The line move on this game is wild.

443
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 3: I'm on Eagles plus three here. The look ahead at

444
00:21:15,800 --> 00:21:18,199
Speaker 3: some books was Eagles minus three and a half on

445
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:21,760
Speaker 3: the road, so the Saints obviously looked really good. The

446
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,000
Speaker 3: Eagles choke at the end but probably should have won

447
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 3: the game. We're moving this six points across two key numbers.

448
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 3: That's crazy, like I don't remember very many lines like this.

449
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 3: That's like, oh, Jalen hurts us out for the game

450
00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,359
Speaker 3: sort of line movement. No, that's just now. We kind

451
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 3: of don't think the Eagles are very good anymore, and

452
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 3: the Saints look really great. Saints stock is an all

453
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 3: time high. They're scoring every Derek car possession. They're top

454
00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:47,359
Speaker 3: five passing, top five running. The Eagles defense has stunk.

455
00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 3: That's the case for the Saints. Duh, that's what everybody

456
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,440
Speaker 3: thinks is gonna happen. By low sell, high trust our

457
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:57,080
Speaker 3: priors here. Eagles are moving the ball pretty well, and

458
00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,280
Speaker 3: I think this is a pretty the first real big

459
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 3: test for the Saints defense. The Cowboys didn't give them

460
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 3: much of a test last week and really only have

461
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 3: one main weapon. This is different, even with AJ Brown out,

462
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 3: I think it was a different test for the Saints.

463
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 3: Saints offensive line getting a lot of love this week.

464
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,320
Speaker 3: Saints coach is getting a lot of love this Weekacha, Yep, yeah,

465
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 3: you know how. I like Philadelphia coaches an offensive line.

466
00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 3: That's why I like Dennis Allen thirty six percent against

467
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 3: the spread as a favorite, Derek Carr thirty seven percent

468
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 3: against the spreads, A favorite Dennis Allen after a win

469
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 3: twenty seven percent against the spread as a favorite. Come on,

470
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 3: you know I'm always betting against Dennis Allen and Derek

471
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 3: Carr is a favorite. I love that the Saints are

472
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 3: winning these games. They just gave us more chances to

473
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 3: bet against the Saints as favorites. Now, couple trends for you.

474
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 3: Here Week three, teams that are two to zero favored

475
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 3: by four or less. This is the spot where you're like, hmm,

476
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,960
Speaker 3: you're good, but we're not totally sure you're that good

477
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 3: thirty seven percent against the spread. And here's another one,

478
00:22:56,359 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 3: not just Week three. Since twenty ten, teams that one

479
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 3: by seventeen or more is underdogs underdogs of seven or

480
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 3: last so they were shortish underdogs they won huge. Those

481
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 3: teams are only thirty five percent against the spread the

482
00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 3: following week. That's the Saints this week, including if you

483
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,159
Speaker 3: fade those teams the first five weeks of the season,

484
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:21,399
Speaker 3: forty twelve and one against the spread seventy seven percent

485
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 3: ATS So I like the Eagles here, I'm insulted by

486
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,160
Speaker 3: this line move. Be sure to get the plus three

487
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 3: while it is their Eagles plus three at the Saints

488
00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 3: all right, by.

489
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 4: The way, I was just looking up quickly as you

490
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,800
Speaker 4: were finishing up there where Dennis Allen is on the

491
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:40,160
Speaker 4: next coach or first coach fired, and he's dropped down

492
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 4: the list. He's not the favorite. It's Brian Dayball in

493
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 4: New York. So Dennis Allen has saved face for now.

494
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,760
Speaker 3: Well, Daveil won't be the favorite anymore either after they

495
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,000
Speaker 3: win by six or more this week. And Ugly Kitchen,

496
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:52,800
Speaker 3: think game.

497
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:55,439
Speaker 4: This last one real quick before we get to the

498
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 4: look ahead. It's actually a player prop look.

499
00:23:57,920 --> 00:23:59,719
Speaker 3: It is, Yeah, Jamar Chase. I like him to get

500
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 3: a touch down Monday night against the Commanders. It's plus

501
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:05,400
Speaker 3: one twenty. We'll talk about this game brandan on Sunday night.

502
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:07,520
Speaker 3: So I'm just gonna keep that real brief here, but

503
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,120
Speaker 3: I think the number drops a little bit. Washington's defense

504
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,640
Speaker 3: has been tobable, especially against receivers. Get the best line

505
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 3: you can. We'll talk more about that one on Sunday.

506
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 4: Excellent look ahead from last week, we spoke about the

507
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 4: Chiefs minus three and a half at Atlanta. You're playing

508
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,400
Speaker 4: it again at minus three. Look ahead to week four?

509
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 4: What jumps out to you?

510
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 3: Let's look ahead just give it a shot.

511
00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:29,880
Speaker 2: How about next week?

512
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 1: I got my mind set, my mind set.

513
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a little sound familiar. I'm gonna take a

514
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,160
Speaker 3: Steelers road under. It's Steelers at Colts under forty one.

515
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 3: Despite my terrible start to the season, undefeated on totals

516
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 3: so far as let's do a total, let's go under.

517
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 3: Steelers are two and out of the under. That's been

518
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 3: our easiest money wins of the year. Tomlin Road under

519
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 3: is continuing to be an absolute wagon, especially early in

520
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 3: the season. September October fifty and twenty seven to the

521
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 3: under sixty seven percent, including twice already this year, games

522
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 3: that had a total of nineteen and twenty eight points

523
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 3: with two touchdowns. Between the two games, the Steelers are

524
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 3: two to zero with one touchdown. Right now, that's all

525
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 3: This is not justin the fields. Is not the offense.

526
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 3: This is the defense. Obviously. Colts offense really all not

527
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,680
Speaker 3: so bad by yards per play. They're just the home

528
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 3: runner bust offense right now. They've only had about twenty

529
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 3: minutes of possession each game. That is going to be

530
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:33,680
Speaker 3: a way to beat a bad defense. I don't think

531
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 3: that's going to go well against a discipline defense like Pittsburgh.

532
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 3: This sits. This kind of looks like another game where

533
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:42,919
Speaker 3: the Colts have a couple of goods drives where they

534
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 3: get a long strike. Otherwise the Steelers are sitting the

535
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 3: ball for forty minutes, just running the ball like Arthur

536
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:51,440
Speaker 3: Smith loves chew up the clock. The look aheader was

537
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 3: forty four and a half. We're already down to forty

538
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 3: one here, forty and a half at some books, forty

539
00:25:56,240 --> 00:25:57,719
Speaker 3: and forty one our keys, So this is the one

540
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 3: you want to grab now. Having this keeps dropping, you know,

541
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 3: we like this. It gets below forty, we've got all

542
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 3: those trends Steelers road unders. If it ain't broke, don't

543
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,919
Speaker 3: fix it. Under forty one for a week four.

544
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:10,320
Speaker 1: That's the greatest of all time.

545
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 3: Look at your work.

546
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: This freaking team two and oh one touchdowns for two games.

547
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,159
Speaker 1: They get the two and oh Chargers two and o harball.

548
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 1: I could see with.

549
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 4: Vegas and Carolina on the schedule, and but Pittsburgh, get

550
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 4: out of my face.

551
00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 1: Man.

552
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 4: I wonder would you have rather that game be in

553
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh because then you'd have to get But it's not

554
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 4: weather time yet.

555
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 1: But it's an indoor spot. I know it's justin fields.

556
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 1: It might not matter, just curious.

557
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,359
Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't have a good sense of

558
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 3: Anthony Richardson on the road yet. But you know, Tomlin

559
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,400
Speaker 3: road Unders. The trend hasn't been as strong at home,

560
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 3: so we'll stick with the road under trend and we'll

561
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 3: take what we got.

562
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:48,879
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff as always from Brandon Anderson.

563
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 4: Again, don't forget to find him in the free award

564
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:54,919
Speaker 4: winning Action Network app. You can find our other contributors

565
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,720
Speaker 4: as well, so you can find their picks and track

566
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 4: your own. Check out our Action Network discord server to

567
00:27:01,960 --> 00:27:04,240
Speaker 4: chop it up with our experts and fellow gamblers during

568
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:04,920
Speaker 4: these games.

569
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 1: There's a link to the.

570
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:11,120
Speaker 4: Discord in the description of this podcast. If you missed

571
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 4: the Sunday six pack with Raybond and Stucky, that episode

572
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:17,439
Speaker 4: is out now. Also our new NFL Roundtable episode Stucky

573
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 4: stop by this week as well as Evan Abrams. We'll

574
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 4: be back next week. Week four best bets for Brandon

575
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 4: Anderson Brendan Glasheet thanks for tuning in NFL week free

576
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 4: best Bets here on the Action Network podcast best of Welcome.

577
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

578
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,959
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

579
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

580
00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler