1
00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:07,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:09,760 --> 00:00:13,280
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

3
00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:16,400
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

4
00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,920
Speaker 2: Proud with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever

5
00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:28,040
Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

6
00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,760
Speaker 3: On Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite radio and on YouTube,

7
00:00:28,760 --> 00:00:31,400
Speaker 3: where you can search Bloomberg Business News Live. Find us.

8
00:00:31,520 --> 00:00:35,040
Speaker 3: Our live stream awaits you with news from the campaign

9
00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:40,040
Speaker 3: trail today and from Chicago. We were just talking to

10
00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:42,640
Speaker 3: Nathan Dean about what's going to take place next week

11
00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:44,599
Speaker 3: at the DNC, and we do have news on the

12
00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:48,240
Speaker 3: lineup this morning. Pretty interesting to think about the way

13
00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,160
Speaker 3: this is all going to work. Knowing of course Tim

14
00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,479
Speaker 3: Walls will be speaking on Wednesday night, and Kamala Harris

15
00:00:54,160 --> 00:00:57,400
Speaker 3: we'll speak on Thursday. We're filling in the blanks. Joe

16
00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:00,280
Speaker 3: Biden is going to open this thing on Monday. Talked

17
00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:02,240
Speaker 3: about that with Rick and Jenie already. They're kind of

18
00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:04,520
Speaker 3: ripping off the band aid check the box. Get Joe

19
00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,759
Speaker 3: Biden done Monday night so we can look to the future.

20
00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:13,480
Speaker 3: Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. It turns out as

21
00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,640
Speaker 3: also being held on Monday Night, gets more interesting from

22
00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:22,080
Speaker 3: there Tuesday Barack Obama. It is his hometown after all,

23
00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:25,319
Speaker 3: and a big reason, big part of the reason why

24
00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:29,080
Speaker 3: Joe Biden is not in this race anymore. Then it's

25
00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:34,360
Speaker 3: Bill Clinton. Isn't this interesting? On Wednesday Night? Introducing Tim Walls,

26
00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:36,840
Speaker 3: not Hillary Clinton. They're going to the former president for

27
00:01:36,880 --> 00:01:41,200
Speaker 3: this one, presumably for some kind of a folksy presentation.

28
00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:43,520
Speaker 3: And this is where we start with our panel today.

29
00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:47,640
Speaker 3: They're both back with us. Bloomberg Politics contributor Genie Shanzano,

30
00:01:48,480 --> 00:01:52,240
Speaker 3: a political science professor iona University and senior Democracy Fellow

31
00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,840
Speaker 3: at the Center for the Study of the Presidency in Congress,

32
00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,800
Speaker 3: Rick Davis partner Stone Court Capital, of course, and longtime

33
00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:02,520
Speaker 3: Republican strategists. What do you make of the lineup here, Genie?

34
00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:04,560
Speaker 3: I know I'm probably reading into all this stuff, but

35
00:02:05,120 --> 00:02:07,440
Speaker 3: you get Hillary and Joe Biden out of the way

36
00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:12,200
Speaker 3: on Monday nights so you can feature Bill Clinton on

37
00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:16,400
Speaker 3: what will be a very well watched night on Wednesday

38
00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,160
Speaker 3: with the Vice President. Why these decisions?

39
00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,480
Speaker 4: I do think it makes sense. You know, obviously, both

40
00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:27,000
Speaker 4: Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton have run, and of course

41
00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:32,799
Speaker 4: he won. She did not. They serve together in Obama's administration,

42
00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:34,960
Speaker 4: So I do think that makes sense.

43
00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:36,320
Speaker 1: And then to your.

44
00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:39,720
Speaker 4: Point, you have Barack Obama, a great speaker, and it's

45
00:02:39,760 --> 00:02:44,120
Speaker 4: its home, his hometown and still widely beloved. I'm curious

46
00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:47,360
Speaker 4: to see if we hear anything from Michelle Obama. Haven't

47
00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:50,560
Speaker 4: heard her name yet. And Bill Clinton, he's known as

48
00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:53,040
Speaker 4: one of the people who really does a great job

49
00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:57,200
Speaker 4: introducing somebody like Walt I keep wondering, does he pull

50
00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:58,639
Speaker 4: out the old saxophone?

51
00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:01,680
Speaker 1: Who knows what happened? But they do have.

52
00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:05,640
Speaker 4: A similar sort of background in terms of being from

53
00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:10,240
Speaker 4: the Midwest and you know, having served as governors and

54
00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:12,919
Speaker 4: that kind of thing. So I do think that makes sense.

55
00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:17,360
Speaker 4: And then of course the question becomes who introduces Kamala Harris.

56
00:03:17,400 --> 00:03:19,359
Speaker 4: I am curious to see as well. I don't think we.

57
00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:23,040
Speaker 3: Know that yet, No, we don't. And Rick, you've run

58
00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:26,760
Speaker 3: a convention, so talk to me about the process that

59
00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,240
Speaker 3: goes into decisions like these when you're figuring out the

60
00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,760
Speaker 3: speaking schedule and how to best capture the media coverage

61
00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:33,440
Speaker 3: that'll come with it.

62
00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:37,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, you can imagine the monkey runch. It was thrown

63
00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:40,360
Speaker 5: into this three weeks ago when the top of the

64
00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:44,760
Speaker 5: ticket flipped and all the focus, all the agenda was

65
00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:51,440
Speaker 5: built around showcasing Joe Biden's accomplishments as president and his

66
00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:56,200
Speaker 5: vision for the next presidency. And that includes the kinds

67
00:03:56,200 --> 00:04:00,000
Speaker 5: of people who are speaking the stories of Joe Biden's

68
00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,000
Speaker 5: you know, growing up and you know his uh sort

69
00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,600
Speaker 5: of you know, middle class roots and you know, working

70
00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,640
Speaker 5: hard for the working man. And now all that has

71
00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:11,880
Speaker 5: been turned upside down. So there's a lot of rewriting

72
00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:13,800
Speaker 5: that's going on and a lot of new recruitment of

73
00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,240
Speaker 5: new faces. And as you've described, you know, these are

74
00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,320
Speaker 5: the standards, right when you've got former presidents and former

75
00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:24,400
Speaker 5: nominees a plenty who were willing actually to come to

76
00:04:24,480 --> 00:04:28,239
Speaker 5: the convention, unlike the Republican convention where George W. Bush

77
00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,400
Speaker 5: wasn't willing to be anywhere near that zip code when

78
00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:34,760
Speaker 5: Donald Trump was doing his victory lap. You have ready

79
00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,520
Speaker 5: and willing participants, and so how do you then juggle

80
00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,720
Speaker 5: them around? And I do think that that part of

81
00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:44,760
Speaker 5: the Biden burden for the convention managers was talking about

82
00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:48,200
Speaker 5: his legacy without standing like he's been around forever, right

83
00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:51,800
Speaker 5: and playing to the age issue here you don't have

84
00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:55,800
Speaker 5: that problem. It's all going to be new, almost as if, uh,

85
00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:59,480
Speaker 5: you know, Harris wasn't even part of the Biden administration.

86
00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:03,160
Speaker 5: You know, we'll get credit for that to Joe Biden

87
00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:05,880
Speaker 5: and all the accomplishments, and then she'll peel off and say,

88
00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:08,600
Speaker 5: and for the future, here's my act, and that's where

89
00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,880
Speaker 5: the new economic policy comes in. That's where the new

90
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,640
Speaker 5: optics come in with my new Vice president Walls, and

91
00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:17,160
Speaker 5: so I think that will be the handoff. You know

92
00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:19,520
Speaker 5: that Bill Clinton gives the Walls and then they peel

93
00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:23,799
Speaker 5: into it. You know on Thursday, Wednesday and Thursday Night, Genie.

94
00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:27,440
Speaker 3: Bill Clinton is seventy seven years old. He's one year

95
00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,880
Speaker 3: younger than Donald Trump. This is who's been chosen now

96
00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:36,400
Speaker 3: to introduce Tim Walls on Wednesday Night. This is an

97
00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:40,520
Speaker 3: individual who was almost canceled. I don't think that's possible

98
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,080
Speaker 3: with a former president. Certainly. Donald Trump has proven that,

99
00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:47,560
Speaker 3: but was not seen as a helping hand to the

100
00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,599
Speaker 3: Democratic Party during the Me Too movement. It looked like

101
00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:54,000
Speaker 3: he was being moved to the sidelines. Here Are you

102
00:05:54,040 --> 00:05:56,159
Speaker 3: surprised to see him with such a prominent role in

103
00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:57,200
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four.

104
00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:02,040
Speaker 4: I'm not. You know, he is a former president who

105
00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:06,440
Speaker 4: is living healthy, able to speak to your point. Obviously,

106
00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,320
Speaker 4: there is a lot there and we saw that in

107
00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:13,040
Speaker 4: the Me Too movement rightly so, and I think that

108
00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:15,440
Speaker 4: may be one of the many reasons why you don't

109
00:06:15,480 --> 00:06:19,359
Speaker 4: see him on a Thursday Night introducing Kamala Harris. But again,

110
00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:24,520
Speaker 4: he's proven to be over several decades, really really good

111
00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:28,840
Speaker 4: at getting out there speaking to Democrats, particularly the kind

112
00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:33,800
Speaker 4: of Democrats that Hillar, sorry, Kamala Harris and Tim Waltz

113
00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,520
Speaker 4: want to appeal to, which are from the Midwest, from

114
00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:40,880
Speaker 4: these Rusta Belt states. I mean, after all, that's how

115
00:06:40,960 --> 00:06:45,040
Speaker 4: Bill Clinton made his name as a very very moderate

116
00:06:45,680 --> 00:06:49,920
Speaker 4: Democrat who went out there and showed that the Democrats

117
00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:53,400
Speaker 4: were not so liberal that they should, you know, just

118
00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:56,920
Speaker 4: be washed away in an election that he ended up winning.

119
00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:59,840
Speaker 4: So you know, he does have that appeal on so

120
00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:04,119
Speaker 4: andly obviously it comes with downsides, and I think again

121
00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,120
Speaker 4: in my mind, one of the big questions is what

122
00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:10,280
Speaker 4: do they do in terms of a direction on the

123
00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,400
Speaker 4: Thursday Night for Kamala Harris. I think there's a lot

124
00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:17,560
Speaker 4: of really really attractive possibilities. I'm going to put my

125
00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:22,040
Speaker 4: vote in for Michelle Obama and Beyonce charity as well.

126
00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:23,400
Speaker 4: But there's a lot of others.

127
00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:25,080
Speaker 1: There's a lot of others.

128
00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:27,960
Speaker 4: But I do think it showcases that difference from that

129
00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:32,200
Speaker 4: Wednesday to Thursday night in terms of generation big time.

130
00:07:32,280 --> 00:07:35,320
Speaker 3: It's a big turning of the page here, unless, of course,

131
00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:39,720
Speaker 3: the uncommitteds cause a problem. Rick. I don't think they'll

132
00:07:39,760 --> 00:07:41,960
Speaker 3: disrupt the whole flow here, but it could be part

133
00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:46,840
Speaker 3: of the story. They're calling them cease fire delegates up

134
00:07:46,880 --> 00:07:49,559
Speaker 3: in Boston this morning, Rick. According to Politico, they're about

135
00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:54,520
Speaker 3: thirty uncommitted delegates representing the Democratic primary voters who opposed

136
00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,800
Speaker 3: Joe Biden. This of course brings us to the matter

137
00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:01,080
Speaker 3: of Israel and the many uncommitted votes that we saw

138
00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:03,840
Speaker 3: in some of the swing states during the primaries that

139
00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:06,840
Speaker 3: we talked about, Rick, if you were running this convention,

140
00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,040
Speaker 3: as you have done in your career, what would you

141
00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:13,520
Speaker 3: be doing right now to try to meet with these

142
00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:16,640
Speaker 3: people to try to diffuse the situation before everybody shows

143
00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:17,440
Speaker 3: up in Chicago.

144
00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:20,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean we talked about this the other day,

145
00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:22,960
Speaker 5: Joe and I suggested that, you know, you'd want to

146
00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:26,800
Speaker 5: put a group together that would start literally handholding these folks,

147
00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:30,000
Speaker 5: trying to resolve issues and you know, find things of

148
00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:33,479
Speaker 5: interest that they have in the platform and other options

149
00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:37,920
Speaker 5: future administration points of view, and also you know, work

150
00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:39,880
Speaker 5: them over hard on the fact that you know, Donald

151
00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:42,600
Speaker 5: Trump's not their kind of person. They shouldn't do anything

152
00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:47,959
Speaker 5: to enhance his appeal. And then I would make sure

153
00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,839
Speaker 5: that I surrounded them with my best political operatives when

154
00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:53,720
Speaker 5: they're inside the convention, so that at least I got

155
00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:55,760
Speaker 5: a heads up. But for sure, I mean most of

156
00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,760
Speaker 5: them are in Michigan delegation, and that Michigan delegation would

157
00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:03,360
Speaker 5: probab I'd be sitting in the rafters, you know, where

158
00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,600
Speaker 5: there would be literally no ability for a camera crew

159
00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:08,000
Speaker 5: to take a picture of them.

160
00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:11,040
Speaker 3: All. Right now, we're getting warmer, Genie, how do you

161
00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:14,520
Speaker 3: think Kamala Harris and her campaign handle this. We talked

162
00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:18,200
Speaker 3: yesterday about the potential for thousands of protesters outside. What

163
00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:20,600
Speaker 3: about the couple a dozen inside?

164
00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:24,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, and those couple a dozen are arguably even more

165
00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:28,240
Speaker 4: potentially problematic for the DNC and the Democrats then the

166
00:09:28,320 --> 00:09:32,960
Speaker 4: thousands outside. In addition to Michigan, we've also got some

167
00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:36,400
Speaker 4: from Minnesota, and that creates a dilemma in terms of

168
00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,839
Speaker 4: what Rick's talking about. I don't know if you can

169
00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,720
Speaker 4: put the Minnesota delegates in the rafters because they have

170
00:09:43,000 --> 00:09:46,880
Speaker 4: a vice presidential nominee there and so that I think

171
00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,000
Speaker 4: is where the issue is. But I do think the

172
00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:53,840
Speaker 4: Democrats are exercising good risk management here. They have, you know,

173
00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,840
Speaker 4: been meeting with these folks. They've been talking to them.

174
00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:59,920
Speaker 4: They have a list of demands. Certainly some of the

175
00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,480
Speaker 4: they're never going to meet. But if they can start

176
00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:07,240
Speaker 4: to meet these people halfway or a quarter of the way,

177
00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:09,760
Speaker 4: if you will, they may be able to get them

178
00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:13,480
Speaker 4: to hold off on doing anything with shows dissension and

179
00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:17,040
Speaker 4: does what none of them want, which is showing support

180
00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,480
Speaker 4: for Donald Trump. So I do think this is the

181
00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:21,680
Speaker 4: way to proceed. But of course this is going to

182
00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:23,400
Speaker 4: be one of the big things that the media are

183
00:10:23,440 --> 00:10:25,160
Speaker 4: watching for the entire week.

184
00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:30,640
Speaker 3: To what extent should Democrats be leveraging celebrity in this convention? Rick,

185
00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:33,800
Speaker 3: you just heard Genie mentioned Beyonce. That's the caliber we

186
00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,760
Speaker 3: could be talking about here. Everything we hear coming out

187
00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:40,040
Speaker 3: of the DNC is big surprises, lots of entertainment. We've

188
00:10:40,040 --> 00:10:43,800
Speaker 3: seen a lot of musicians and entertainers showing up for

189
00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:47,000
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris on the campaign trail. Is there a point

190
00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:52,120
Speaker 3: of diminishing returns for Democrats on this, Yeah? I think so.

191
00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:54,480
Speaker 5: I mean, look, I mean, voters are going to look

192
00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:57,760
Speaker 5: in and they want to see something that they can

193
00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:00,600
Speaker 5: vote on, right, and it's not an a down boat

194
00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:02,559
Speaker 5: on Beyonce and her latest outfit.

195
00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:03,840
Speaker 4: Uh.

196
00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:06,800
Speaker 5: That stuff is entertaining to the delegates, it's entertaining to

197
00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,440
Speaker 5: the media. We'll have a blast watching and listening to

198
00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,680
Speaker 5: it when we're there. Most of it does not get

199
00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:18,160
Speaker 5: broadcasts on network television or on cable, So it's the

200
00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,719
Speaker 5: kind of thing that has a diminishing return. But at

201
00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:24,400
Speaker 5: the end of the day, you know, uh, Donald Trump

202
00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:29,120
Speaker 5: brought the world wrestling championship types to his convention. You

203
00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,760
Speaker 5: can expect Hollywood to show up at the Democratic convention

204
00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:33,680
Speaker 5: and you know, pick your poison.

205
00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,560
Speaker 3: One of the highlights of Milwaukee for me was the

206
00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:41,080
Speaker 3: split screen with Rick, Genie and Kid Rock as part

207
00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,640
Speaker 3: of our live coverage. Genie, how do you counter Kid Rock?

208
00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:45,920
Speaker 3: Is it's Beyonce that you just said it? Right?

209
00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,360
Speaker 4: It could be Beyonce, it could be Charlie X. What

210
00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:53,760
Speaker 4: is it, Joe CSXXCX you correct.

211
00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:54,480
Speaker 3: Whatever you say.

212
00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:58,240
Speaker 4: Sure, And well, one thing we do know is they

213
00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:01,839
Speaker 4: have a they have a really really at the Democratic side,

214
00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:05,800
Speaker 4: well developed streaming output that's going to go out. They

215
00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:10,200
Speaker 4: have been targeting gen Z like no tomorrow. And also

216
00:12:10,280 --> 00:12:14,320
Speaker 4: we're hearing that they are moving away, as the Republicans did,

217
00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:18,920
Speaker 4: from a list celebrities to more targeted folks, so you know,

218
00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,600
Speaker 4: people who can really target those groups that they want

219
00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:23,800
Speaker 4: to get out. So, you know, as much as we

220
00:12:23,840 --> 00:12:26,800
Speaker 4: all love Beyonce, she may just be too a list

221
00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:31,000
Speaker 4: this kind of voter targeting activities. So it's a really

222
00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:35,440
Speaker 4: way in which they're doing. Yeah, she's too mainstream Joe.

223
00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:39,400
Speaker 4: So you know, Donald Trump wants gamers. You know, the

224
00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,120
Speaker 4: Democrats want somebody else. So I think we're going to

225
00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:45,520
Speaker 4: see some targeted names that have you know, can really

226
00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:48,679
Speaker 4: move the needle with this group and Joe. The vibe

227
00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:52,640
Speaker 4: very very important this year, so happy good vibes is

228
00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:53,520
Speaker 4: what they're going for.

229
00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:56,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I listen, I know how brat you are, Genie

230
00:12:56,880 --> 00:13:02,480
Speaker 3: and X see X from producer James. They're listening to

231
00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:05,079
Speaker 3: Brat in the control room right now making fun of us.

232
00:13:05,200 --> 00:13:07,559
Speaker 3: Rick you're saved by the bell. I'm not going to

233
00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:13,480
Speaker 3: ask you about any of the performers in Chicago. That's

234
00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:19,200
Speaker 3: a no comment from Rick Davis. It's quite all right.

235
00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,440
Speaker 3: They're going to be back with us in our second hour,

236
00:13:21,720 --> 00:13:23,800
Speaker 3: the best panel in the business, Rick Davis and Genie

237
00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:27,280
Speaker 3: Shanzeo here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio. We'll

238
00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:31,000
Speaker 3: invite our global television audience to our little talk here

239
00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:32,800
Speaker 3: coming up. Aren't we lucky we get to do this

240
00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:35,559
Speaker 3: every day in the midst of one of the most

241
00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:40,079
Speaker 3: historic presidential campaign cycles of our lives. Coming up next hour,

242
00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,439
Speaker 3: Kayley's back from New York too. She'll be here with

243
00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,520
Speaker 3: us on Balance of Power and a conversation coming up

244
00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:51,480
Speaker 3: with Michael Allen from Beacon Global Strategies and the news

245
00:13:51,520 --> 00:13:53,360
Speaker 3: that we haven't even had a chance to touch yet

246
00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:56,079
Speaker 3: from Israel today and from Ukraine. We've got a lot cooking.

247
00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:57,880
Speaker 3: You want to stay with us here on Bloomberg.

248
00:14:01,240 --> 00:14:04,560
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

249
00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,800
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

250
00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:10,480
Speaker 2: royd Oto with the Bloomberg Business ap. You can also

251
00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:14,040
Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

252
00:14:14,440 --> 00:14:20,040
Speaker 2: Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

253
00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:21,920
Speaker 6: Right here on Bloomberg TV and radio, where you can

254
00:14:21,960 --> 00:14:25,160
Speaker 6: find us every day at this time without fail. We

255
00:14:25,200 --> 00:14:27,400
Speaker 6: always will start at one pm.

256
00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:28,640
Speaker 3: Stog, I know where you're going.

257
00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,840
Speaker 6: Wasn't necessarily the case with the promised eight pm start.

258
00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,440
Speaker 6: Last night of the X Space between Elon Musk and

259
00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:38,160
Speaker 6: Donald Trump started a little bit behind schedule, and we're

260
00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:41,160
Speaker 6: blaming technical difficulties or if Elon Muskus to be believed

261
00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:42,320
Speaker 6: a denial of service.

262
00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:46,960
Speaker 3: Yeah right, that's correct. It was forty minutes late, just

263
00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:49,400
Speaker 3: to bring everyone in for one second, because we're always honest.

264
00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:51,240
Speaker 3: It's just us here. Kayley and I were on the

265
00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:54,080
Speaker 3: train back from New York, so we were the captive audience.

266
00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:57,800
Speaker 3: We had nothing left, nothing else to do, and you

267
00:14:57,840 --> 00:14:58,720
Speaker 3: got in pretty quick.

268
00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:00,160
Speaker 7: I pad it day about a half now.

269
00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:02,920
Speaker 6: No one else could. I couldn't tell if I was honored.

270
00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:04,960
Speaker 3: Or well, I don't know. I felt like you had

271
00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:06,880
Speaker 3: an invitation, but you got to listen to that great

272
00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:09,760
Speaker 3: music for forty minutes while finally got in, and then

273
00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:12,200
Speaker 3: we sat there for two hours listening to what sounded

274
00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:13,960
Speaker 3: like a couple of guys talking on the phone.

275
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,720
Speaker 6: Yeah. Oh, it was just a and it was, as promised,

276
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:19,680
Speaker 6: an unscripted conversation Elon Musk said it would be, and

277
00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:21,920
Speaker 6: that there were no limits to the subject matter. But frankly,

278
00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,680
Speaker 6: the subject matter did stray often back to what we

279
00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:27,920
Speaker 6: hear repeatedly from Donald Trump, who true spoke a lot

280
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:30,280
Speaker 6: and not all of it attacks aimed at his opponent com.

281
00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:33,600
Speaker 3: You know, Stephanie Laie, it was her job to listen

282
00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:35,880
Speaker 3: to it as well. She was listening, so you don't

283
00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,640
Speaker 3: have too Bloomberg, White House and a politics reporter with

284
00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,680
Speaker 3: us now at the table. Stephanie, thank you for being

285
00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:45,040
Speaker 3: here as always. I'm sure you're still recovering from this

286
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:50,200
Speaker 3: whole episode as well. How do we refer to this?

287
00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:54,920
Speaker 3: It was essentially a two hour live political advertisement, and

288
00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,760
Speaker 3: the Trump campaign was actually running ads on it was

289
00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:02,640
Speaker 3: sponsoring the space. So was this basically a Trump campaign

290
00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:03,160
Speaker 3: ad by?

291
00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:06,320
Speaker 8: I mean, we have to remember that this was a conversation,

292
00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:08,720
Speaker 8: you know. I think at some points during the day

293
00:16:08,720 --> 00:16:11,160
Speaker 8: before some media outlets were naming it an interview with

294
00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 8: Elon Musk, and that really wasn't the case. You know,

295
00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,560
Speaker 8: it was very much Elon Musk giving his opinion on

296
00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:18,920
Speaker 8: some topic and asking Trump, you know, how do you

297
00:16:18,960 --> 00:16:21,200
Speaker 8: feel about this? Or you know, is this what you

298
00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:24,840
Speaker 8: think as well? And so, you know, this entire event

299
00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:27,880
Speaker 8: felt like a rally, but there was some you know,

300
00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:29,640
Speaker 8: some conversation between.

301
00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:31,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, a digital one perhaps. I have to say when

302
00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:33,760
Speaker 6: I was taking part in the space, I was one

303
00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:35,960
Speaker 6: of the what I saw at maximum a one point

304
00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,160
Speaker 6: three million that were tuned in at that time. But

305
00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,480
Speaker 6: I know Donald Trump on it last night said something

306
00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:44,640
Speaker 6: closer to sixty million. Ex itself said the engagement levels

307
00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,400
Speaker 6: beyond that, we're far higher. So I guess the question,

308
00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,600
Speaker 6: Stephanie is is that all they were trying to achieve

309
00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,160
Speaker 6: To point out as Donald Trump has been very concerned

310
00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:54,400
Speaker 6: with the crowd size that Kamala Harris has been drawing

311
00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:57,080
Speaker 6: in that he has the ability to get that many

312
00:16:57,080 --> 00:17:00,120
Speaker 6: people to listen to him on whatever elon Musk and

313
00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 6: he decided to talk about.

314
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:02,920
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean they were looking for some sort of

315
00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:05,920
Speaker 8: splashy event to make headlines, to bring the attention back

316
00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:08,640
Speaker 8: to the campaign. Because the last three weeks we've really

317
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,800
Speaker 8: seen the focus on Kamala Harris and Tim Walls. There's

318
00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,080
Speaker 8: been so much momentum behind them, just given the fact

319
00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:16,760
Speaker 8: that we're in this news cycle where we're figuring out

320
00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 8: what the Democratic ticket is going to look like, what

321
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:20,600
Speaker 8: the agenda is going to look like. And so this

322
00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,199
Speaker 8: was really the moment for the Trump campaign to regain

323
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:26,200
Speaker 8: the narrative and to maybe make some news. But from

324
00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,720
Speaker 8: what I was hearing, there was no newsmade. It was

325
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,879
Speaker 8: very much just Trump rehashing what he said in his

326
00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,359
Speaker 8: past proposals. I think one thing that stuck out to

327
00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,439
Speaker 8: me was that he mentioned that he was worried of

328
00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:39,919
Speaker 8: nuclear warming, which was not a phrase that I had

329
00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 8: heard before. But essentially the idea is, you know, we

330
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,119
Speaker 8: have to be worried about our national security. A lot

331
00:17:45,160 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 8: of countries have access to nuclear weapons. But that wasn't

332
00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:51,919
Speaker 8: anything that I quite heard of, or that term specific.

333
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,520
Speaker 3: Different version on a refrain from Donald Trump. By the way,

334
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 3: you know, it was Elon Musco I think first called

335
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,760
Speaker 3: it an interview, and then the Trump campaign called it,

336
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,919
Speaker 3: I think think the most important interview of all time.

337
00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:05,719
Speaker 3: As it was getting ready to get started. But so

338
00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:09,000
Speaker 3: you know, picture us there, we're clacking down the tracks

339
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:10,960
Speaker 3: on It's forty minutes into this and we've got the

340
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:14,360
Speaker 3: earbuds in and then the music stops and we hear this.

341
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:21,880
Speaker 9: We unfortunately had a massive Distributednihledge service attack against our servers.

342
00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 9: As this massive attack illustrates, there's a lot of opposition

343
00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:34,240
Speaker 9: to people just hearing what President Trump has to say.

344
00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 3: There was a question about whether this invitation would be

345
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:40,719
Speaker 3: extended to Kamala Harris. Elon Musk has suggested as much.

346
00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:43,440
Speaker 3: He referred to her as Kamala as opposed to President

347
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:49,800
Speaker 3: Trump in his tweet, Well, the Harris campaign indulge such

348
00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:50,400
Speaker 3: an invitation.

349
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,800
Speaker 8: I've not seen any signals just yet, but you know,

350
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:58,040
Speaker 8: even last week when Trump was interviewed by a video gamer,

351
00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:03,400
Speaker 8: Aiden Ross also extended an invitation to the Vice president Harris.

352
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,520
Speaker 8: And so it's not entirely clear if that's really the

353
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:06,440
Speaker 8: audience that they're looking.

354
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:07,800
Speaker 3: Does she get a cyber truck too?

355
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 8: If she does it, maybe see yeah, that's the question

356
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,520
Speaker 8: in a watch, right, Yeah, yeah.

357
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:17,080
Speaker 6: Fancy watch at that. It is worth noting that you

358
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:19,720
Speaker 6: obviously are on the campaign trail a lot. Donald Trump

359
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,680
Speaker 6: is going to be in North Carolina this week outlining

360
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,880
Speaker 6: his economic policy. We expect now that Kamala Harris will

361
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:28,560
Speaker 6: also be in North Carolina on Friday to outline hers

362
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:30,800
Speaker 6: This is after we heard her float the idea of

363
00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:34,000
Speaker 6: no taxes on tips, which Donald Trump had floated. Jadie

364
00:19:34,080 --> 00:19:36,880
Speaker 6: Vance is talking about an expanded child tax credit, something

365
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,760
Speaker 6: that Democrats like Harris have long been in favor of.

366
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,600
Speaker 6: So when we get these economic policies fully outlined, are

367
00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:44,639
Speaker 6: we going to come to find that there's actually not

368
00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:47,160
Speaker 6: that much difference between them?

369
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:49,400
Speaker 8: I mean, I think that's the most interesting thing about

370
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:51,879
Speaker 8: this election cycle so far. There's been so many areas

371
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,199
Speaker 8: where it actually seems like Democrats and Republicans agree. You know,

372
00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,320
Speaker 8: even just looking at the last year, Democrats in the

373
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,920
Speaker 8: House and Senate decided to up an immigration bill, right,

374
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,200
Speaker 8: and obviously it didn't go through. But just the fact

375
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,680
Speaker 8: that these issues are things that everyone is talking about,

376
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,679
Speaker 8: everyone cares about, shows a lot more agreement than disagreement

377
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 8: among the two parties.

378
00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:11,400
Speaker 5: Yeah.

379
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 6: Absolutely, Stephanie Lai, thank you so much as always covering

380
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:16,879
Speaker 6: politics for us here at Bloomberg. We appreciate it. And

381
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,680
Speaker 6: as Stephanie brings up that border agreement that obviously did

382
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:23,240
Speaker 6: not make it through Congress. Donald Trump also pointed out

383
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 6: on the call last night that she seems to be

384
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:29,920
Speaker 6: trying to be Trump when it comes to stricter border measures.

385
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:33,560
Speaker 6: At least that was his suggestion. She too, has started

386
00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 6: singing a different tune than she was when she ran

387
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:36,840
Speaker 6: for president of the first time around in twenty nine.

388
00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 3: We talked a little bit yesterday about some of the

389
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,239
Speaker 3: overlap on other issues. Expanded child tax credit promoted by

390
00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 3: j d Vance, no taxes on tips promoted by Kamala Harris.

391
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 3: Maybe things get a little mushy on some of these issues.

392
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 3: Then there's the matter, of course of geopolitics. Knowing that

393
00:20:50,600 --> 00:20:53,639
Speaker 3: we could have a significant number of protesters and even

394
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:58,640
Speaker 3: uncommitted delegates at the Chicago convention next week. Kaylee, We're

395
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,199
Speaker 3: still waiting to find out what Iran will do to

396
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 3: retaliate against Israel.

397
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,439
Speaker 6: And this is actually something that came up on this

398
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,359
Speaker 6: X space between Donald Trump and Elon Musk last night.

399
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 6: Here's what the former president had to say on this matter.

400
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,360
Speaker 3: They're all waiting for an attack from Iran. Iran would

401
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 3: not be attacking believe me, you know what. I was there,

402
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 3: and I say it with respect because I think we

403
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 3: would have been good with Iran. I don't want to

404
00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:25,239
Speaker 3: do anything bad to Iran, but they knew not to

405
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 3: mess around.

406
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,320
Speaker 6: So for more on what's happening in the Middle East,

407
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,479
Speaker 6: and I guess what would have happened if there were

408
00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 6: a different president in the office or not. Michael Allen

409
00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 6: is with us now. He is former special assistant to

410
00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 6: the President during the Bush administration, now managing director and

411
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 6: partner at Beacon Global Strategies. Mike, always good to see

412
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 6: you here in studio on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Appreciate

413
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 6: you joining us. So Donald Trump has said this about

414
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:53,119
Speaker 6: a number of hot geopolitical conflicts in the world, that

415
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 6: Russia never would have gone into Ukraine, that what's happening

416
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,000
Speaker 6: in the Middle East October seventh wouldn't have happened. Obviously

417
00:21:58,080 --> 00:21:59,640
Speaker 6: they both happened now. I don't know if you really

418
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 6: believe that to be true. But his suggestion that Aron

419
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:08,639
Speaker 6: wouldn't be going after Israel, considering the contentious nature of

420
00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:11,440
Speaker 6: Israel's role in the Middle East that has been there

421
00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:16,200
Speaker 6: pretty much perpetually, is this being intellectually honest.

422
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 7: It's hard to just throw out a counterfactual and make

423
00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,880
Speaker 7: an assertion. There's no way to test it. Of course,

424
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 7: I think what he's trying to do is premise everything

425
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:31,440
Speaker 7: on what most people agree was a bad call from

426
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 7: President Biden, and that was the way that he got

427
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:37,679
Speaker 7: out of Afghanistan. And the narrative starts there, which is

428
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 7: that because of the way you did it, you were

429
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 7: weak and perceived it is weak, and therefore everybody moved

430
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 7: against you. I think that's a fair criticism that people

431
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,639
Speaker 7: can make. But I mean, can we discern either way

432
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:54,640
Speaker 7: these counterfactuals. It's too hard to do. But it's politics.

433
00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 7: We're in a presidential election year, and I understand people

434
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 7: are going to make those arguments.

435
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,920
Speaker 3: It's been almost two weeks. Tomorrow is two weeks since

436
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:05,040
Speaker 3: the killing of the political leader of Hamas in Tehran.

437
00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 3: What is Iran waiting for or is this part of

438
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,560
Speaker 3: the retaliation as has been suggested the weight.

439
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 7: Yeah, I've seen a little bit about that. Maybe they're

440
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 7: trying to do psychological mind games on the Israelis, but

441
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,639
Speaker 7: I don't really think so. I think it's one like

442
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 7: we've talked about, they need to land a punch this time,

443
00:23:22,840 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 7: so they need to figure out the combination of cruise

444
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 7: missiles and or ballistic missiles and drones, some of which

445
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,600
Speaker 7: need to get through. But the hard part. The other

446
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 7: thing they need to balance is is that they don't

447
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 7: want to be extraordinarily successful, and they don't want to

448
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 7: kill too many civilians because then that might risk a

449
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 7: total war with the Israelis, and I don't think the

450
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 7: Iranians really want to get into a complete and total war.

451
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:53,440
Speaker 7: They benefit by having their proxies operate. And that leads

452
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 7: to the sort of the second thing that they're weighing,

453
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:58,920
Speaker 7: which is Hesbeal is going to take some shots. But

454
00:23:59,440 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 7: are they going to go at them in a total

455
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 7: war type fashion or is it going to be just

456
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 7: enough to make them look credible, to make them look strong,

457
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:13,199
Speaker 7: but not provoke a multi week contest with the stronger Israelis.

458
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 6: Well, surely they're also weighing the fact that currently another proxy,

459
00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 6: Hamas and Israel and other mediators are at least talking

460
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 6: about talking again when it comes to a ceasefire. I

461
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 6: believe Hamas still hasn't firmly committed to joining those talks

462
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 6: that have been suggested for Thursday. How did the ceasefire

463
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 6: negotiations factor into this calculation? Can both of these things

464
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 6: happen around retaliates and a proxy find some kind of

465
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:38,159
Speaker 6: deal with Israel.

466
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,360
Speaker 7: I think you're onto something. I didn't think it made

467
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 7: sense to put all these things and try and cram

468
00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 7: them together. I understand the Biden administration is trying to

469
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 7: do all that they can to get a ceasefire, but

470
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,199
Speaker 7: more importantly to get these hostages home, especially since at

471
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 7: least five of them are Americans. But I didn't think

472
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,680
Speaker 7: it just sort of suited what was on the international

473
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,520
Speaker 7: agenda for the week, which is Esplas trying to take

474
00:25:00,560 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 7: a shot it Israel Iran, the so called head of

475
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 7: the octopus, and I didn't think that Hamas was going

476
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 7: to just step up and say, hey, you know what,

477
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,399
Speaker 7: it's time for us to make this deal now. I

478
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:15,240
Speaker 7: think it would look weak if Sinwar were to make

479
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 7: it now, because it would have made them seem afraid

480
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,159
Speaker 7: of what the Israelis were about to do. So I

481
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 7: know how badly everybody wants it, but it didn't seem

482
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:25,840
Speaker 7: like the week to advance the ball on it.

483
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,359
Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, in the meantime, the Pentagon's busy sending a

484
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 3: guided missile submarine to the theater the USS Georgia. One

485
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 3: hundred and fifty Tomahawks on board the USS Abraham Lincoln

486
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 3: Aircraft Carrier Strike Group is speeding its way there. Now

487
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 3: there's a question about whether this is deterrence or whether

488
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:48,880
Speaker 3: we're girding for something more substantive than what we saw

489
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 3: in April.

490
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 7: So I totally agree it's to terrence. But there's another factor,

491
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 7: and that is what is the status of the Iranian

492
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 7: nuclear program. I don't put this at a high probability,

493
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 7: but a couple of things have happened lately, and that one,

494
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 7: the US intelligence community has backed away from its pronouncement

495
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:14,159
Speaker 7: that Iran is no longer working on the weaponization of

496
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:17,480
Speaker 7: a nuclear weapon. By that, they mean putting the fissile

497
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,719
Speaker 7: material together and putting it on a ballistic missile or something.

498
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,199
Speaker 7: So that's significant. People have noticed that, And at the

499
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 7: same time, the Iranians are thinking to themselves, if we

500
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 7: go into a total war situation, what's to stop these Raelies?

501
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 7: And maybe the United States. I wouldn't put it over

502
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,439
Speaker 7: fifty percent, but you've got to think about it. What

503
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 7: if the United States says, you know what, I didn't

504
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 7: really want Iran to go nuclear on my watch anyway,

505
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 7: says President Biden. So maybe we'll go for it now.

506
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 7: Don't think that's it, but you have to consider it

507
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 7: when you think about how much progress Iran has made

508
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 7: on fissile material and now perhaps have restarted the weaponization

509
00:26:57,720 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 7: part of a bomb.

510
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 6: Well, you allude to this side that Biden maybe going

511
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 6: for things he once was not. Can we also call

512
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 6: that true now in the conflict in Ukraine? Considering the

513
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 6: US policy for a very long time in this war

514
00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:13,239
Speaker 6: was not to support offensive action against Russia, and now

515
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:17,000
Speaker 6: Ukraine has seized one thousand kilometers of territory in the

516
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,480
Speaker 6: Curse region in Russia, and you're seeing one hundred thousand

517
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 6: more of Russian's fleet there. What is your read on

518
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 6: what's happening there? Is this something that the US is

519
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 6: really behind?

520
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 7: I think that the US probably wasn't consulted because they

521
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 7: didn't want to know what the answer would be. I

522
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 7: think the Ukrainians kept it a big secret. It sounded

523
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 7: like many of the top figures in Ukraine didn't even

524
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 7: know what they were doing, even those that were in

525
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 7: the officer corps that got moved into the line of fire.

526
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 7: I do, however, believe that this is great that the A.

527
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 7: Biden administration is apparently not fighting it. I think that

528
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,359
Speaker 7: they are allowing it to happen. Allowing it to happen,

529
00:27:56,600 --> 00:28:00,399
Speaker 7: not hectoring the Ukrainians about what they're up to to me,

530
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 7: and we'll have to see how it works out. It's

531
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 7: inn a genious move. It's put Putin on the defensive.

532
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 7: It's caused apparently. We're starting to see news reports that

533
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 7: the Russians are moving troops out of the south of

534
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 7: Ukraine to reinforce where the Ukrainians are running and making

535
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 7: incursions into Kursks. So that's good news. I'm not ready

536
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:26,240
Speaker 7: to declare this a victory or that the course of

537
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 7: the war has changed, but I'm really glad to see

538
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 7: that Ukrainians are mixing it up well.

539
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 3: You're seeing tens of thousands of Russians also as civilians,

540
00:28:34,480 --> 00:28:38,520
Speaker 3: be evacuated from that area. Could we be talking days

541
00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,840
Speaker 3: from now about something awful that Vladimir Putin is going

542
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 3: to do to the troops in that region. He's clearing

543
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:45,719
Speaker 3: out civilians to do something.

544
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 7: I think it's very, very possible. It's you almost can't

545
00:28:50,200 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 7: put anything past what Putin might be up to. I

546
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 7: think he is absolutely trying his best to think of

547
00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 7: something new to penalize the Ukrainians with and they better

548
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 7: look out. Something's coming at them. But I think they're

549
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 7: largely fearless. I think they're glad that they're on the

550
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 7: offensive for once, that their military has come up with

551
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:13,240
Speaker 7: something ingenious and new, so that they're not always sitting

552
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:18,840
Speaker 7: in a trench having positional warfare with the Russian the

553
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 7: Russian troops coming across.

554
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 3: It's good to have you back with us, Michael. Thank you.

555
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 3: Michael Allent with insights from Beacon Global Strategies, his perch

556
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 3: now former Special Assistant to the President in the Bush administration.

557
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington, where we

558
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 3: have a lot more to cover. We start today with geopolitics.

559
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 3: We turned back to the campaign trail ahead with our

560
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 3: signature panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are on board.

561
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 3: Tim Walls making his big solo debut on the campaign

562
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 3: trail today. We'll have a lot more next. This is

563
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 3: Bloomberg TV and Radio.

564
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

565
00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:59,400
Speaker 2: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecar Play and

566
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 2: then oh with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand

567
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

568
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 6: This is Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

569
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 6: Or of course, we bring you all of the political

570
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 6: coverage you need to know, and we do it as

571
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 6: a team. And Tim Walls and Kamala Harris are a

572
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 6: pretty new team now. We just learned officially that they

573
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 6: have become a team on the Democratic ticket as of

574
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 6: last week, and to this point we've seen them on

575
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,200
Speaker 6: the campaign trail together. That changes today though for Tim Walls,

576
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 6: who will be making his first solo campaign stop in

577
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 6: Los Angeles, and of all things, Joe, this is happening

578
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 6: with a union. He is speaking at the diennial convention

579
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 6: of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

580
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:46,959
Speaker 6: And of course we know that the selection of Walls

581
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 6: was welcomed by many unions, considering he is seen to

582
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 6: be a very pro labor governor.

583
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,840
Speaker 3: Especially Yeah, unions snapped to attention as soon as Kamala

584
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 3: Harris got to the top of the ticket, and they

585
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 3: loved the idea. I think we can argue had quite

586
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 3: a bit to do with the election of Tim Walls

587
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 3: over Josh Shapiro, remembering the concern over school vouchers and

588
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 3: so forth for the governor of Pennsylvania. So yeah, this

589
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 3: has asked me and he's going to be going to

590
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 3: a fundraiser afterwards in Newport Beach, California, which is where

591
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 3: we start with our signature panel. Rick Davis and Genie

592
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 3: Shanzano are with A. S. Bloomberg Politics contributors. Rick of

593
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 3: course partner at Stone Court Capital, and Genie political science

594
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 3: professor at Iona University. It's great to see you both.

595
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 3: Welcome aboard here, Genie. The battle for organized labor is pronounced.

596
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 3: And I wonder how well Tim Walls has to perform

597
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 3: on his first outing, his first solo outing on the

598
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: campaign trail, or if that vote is already built in

599
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 3: for this campaign.

600
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 4: No, you know, he has to perform well. He also

601
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,440
Speaker 4: has the advantage of being a former union member himself,

602
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 4: famously as a teacher. He also has a really strong

603
00:31:55,720 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 4: union record. As governor in Minnesota, when the Democrats took

604
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 4: over the state legislature, he signed into law legislation that

605
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,560
Speaker 4: protected some of the most vulnerable workers there. So these

606
00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 4: would be like nursing home workers and others. They also

607
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 4: get to earn paid sick leave, which is not something

608
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 4: that is common across the country, and there will be

609
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 4: a time in the future where they will get family

610
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 4: and medical leaves. So he's got a really solid record himself.

611
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,680
Speaker 4: And what he needs to do today, obviously, is he

612
00:32:30,840 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 4: needs to get them riled up to support Kamala Harris

613
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 4: by talking about what the Biden Harris administration has done

614
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 4: for workers and what she wants to do next when

615
00:32:42,520 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 4: she is elected, hopefully from their perspective president.

616
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 5: Well.

617
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 6: As we consider the appeal to labor and unions, of course,

618
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 6: we've seen a lot of this on the Republican side too,

619
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 6: as JD. Vance especially has talked about the working man.

620
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 6: Donald Trump, we know himself, has courted unions too, maybe

621
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:02,800
Speaker 6: more so members than actual union leadership. But on the

622
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 6: subject of unions, it is worth pointing out the United

623
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 6: Autoworkers Union filed an unfair labor practice charge against former

624
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 6: President Trump and Elon Musk after their X spaces last night,

625
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 6: Wrick accusing them of illegally intimidating workers after Trump was

626
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 6: talking about how employers could fire workers for going on

627
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 6: strike with Elon Musk, how does this play with the unions.

628
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 6: The kind of conversation we saw between these two yesterday evening.

629
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's mutually exclusive. I mean, the Musk

630
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 5: interview was just a rally around the MAGA world. Musk

631
00:33:41,600 --> 00:33:44,560
Speaker 5: is well known for his anti union views. Didn't take

632
00:33:44,600 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 5: a interview with Donald Trump to know that. And of

633
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,680
Speaker 5: course Donald Trump never saw a union and he didn't

634
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:55,720
Speaker 5: want to break even though he has some decent relationships

635
00:33:55,760 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 5: with a few notable union executives. The bottom line is,

636
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 5: you know, the table is set on that as far

637
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 5: as who's best for the unions, and this clash I

638
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 5: think is just sort of electioneering another way to sort

639
00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 5: show the difference. But I think the mistake Democrats tend

640
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 5: to make is that they they basically try to lump

641
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 5: every working class individual in the United States as a

642
00:34:22,080 --> 00:34:26,359
Speaker 5: union worker. And sure, you can love unions as they do,

643
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 5: but it leaves out the vast majority of working people

644
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 5: in America. If that's all you talk about, and so

645
00:34:32,400 --> 00:34:36,040
Speaker 5: great that you know the vice presidential nominee Walls is

646
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 5: doing this in California, and you know these are obviously

647
00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 5: unions that he worked with directly, you know, as governor.

648
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:45,279
Speaker 5: But like, if they don't expand that class in that

649
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 5: conversation to non union working class voters. Then they're not

650
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 5: talking to the right people, especially in the sun Belt.

651
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 3: I want to just listen to what Donald Trump and

652
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,239
Speaker 3: Elon Musk were saying in that moment where he talked

653
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:03,479
Speaker 3: about this idea. Will continue our conversation. This is from

654
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 3: the X space's convo between Elon Musk, who you will

655
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 3: hear as well as Donald Trump.

656
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 9: I think it would be great to just have a

657
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 9: government efficiency commission that takes a look at these things

658
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:19,640
Speaker 9: and just ensures that the taxpayer money, the taxpayers are

659
00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 9: harder money is spent in a good way. And I'd

660
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 9: be happy to help out on such a commission.

661
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 3: I well, you you're the greatest cutter. Okay, so Elon

662
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 3: Musk pitching himself for a possible role somehow there it

663
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 3: sounded like a in a potential Trump administration, a two

664
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 3: point zero. But Donald Trump went on after you're the

665
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,000
Speaker 3: greatest cutter. He said, I won't mention the name of

666
00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 3: the company. But they go on strike, and you say,

667
00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:50,879
Speaker 3: that's okay, you're all gone. You're all gone, So every

668
00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 3: one of you is gone. You want to quit, They

669
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 3: go on strike and he gets rid of them. Genie,

670
00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 3: we keep talking about the fact that EA W rank

671
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,440
Speaker 3: and file I've been voting for Trump over the Democrats

672
00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 3: in the last two elections, depending on which state you're

673
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 3: looking at. How could that be the case with a conversation.

674
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 4: Like this, Yeah, I mean, I think when people start

675
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 4: to focus on these kinds of statements, and that's what

676
00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 4: the Democrats are trying to do, is to say, great,

677
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 4: you have two you know, million billionaires talking to each other,

678
00:36:22,840 --> 00:36:26,200
Speaker 4: and this is where they come down. Fire workers. That's

679
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 4: what Democrats are going to be saying. Another thing they're

680
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:32,160
Speaker 4: going to be saying is, look at what Project twenty

681
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 4: twenty five says about firing civil servants, the very union

682
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:39,879
Speaker 4: that Kim Wats is going to be talking to, placing them,

683
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 4: potentially replacing them with political appointees, maybe banning public employee

684
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 4: unions altogether, which is in keeping with some kind of

685
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:52,279
Speaker 4: commission I guess that Elon Musk wants to join. But

686
00:36:52,440 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 4: not just for public employee unions, I guess, but for unions,

687
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:59,719
Speaker 4: particularly in the automobile sector. This is a disaster for

688
00:36:59,800 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 4: Republicans if this is the message. Donald Trump was much

689
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 4: better off when he was appealing to white blue collar workers,

690
00:37:07,520 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 4: both union and to Rich' point, nonunion talking about firing people,

691
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 4: and particularly billionaires firing people is not a message you

692
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 4: want to send out right now, and I think this

693
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 4: works to the Democrats' advantage.

694
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 6: I want to go back to this whole notion that

695
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 6: it kind of felt like Elon Musk was asking Donald

696
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 6: Trump for a job last night.

697
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 2: Rick.

698
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 6: I'm not sure if that was kind of the point

699
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 6: of this whole exercise for Elon, but I wonder what

700
00:37:32,960 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 6: the point of the exercise really was for the Trump campaign.

701
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:38,800
Speaker 6: Was this just about getting attention or was this about

702
00:37:38,800 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 6: trying to reset the messaging? And if so, considering he

703
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:44,200
Speaker 6: didn't even really seem to be able to recall the

704
00:37:44,280 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 6: name of the vice presidential nominee on the Democratic ticket,

705
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,919
Speaker 6: Tim Wall specifically, was this a success for Donald Trump

706
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:50,400
Speaker 6: last night?

707
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 5: Yeah, Anything that's not been an abject failure would be

708
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 5: considered a success for Donald Trump.

709
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 3: In this last month, most.

710
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:02,439
Speaker 5: Of his outings have been a an epic failure. Here

711
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 5: he could sit at his desk and read notes, He

712
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 5: could you know, be organized around some of the themes

713
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 5: his campaign has been begging him to please return to

714
00:38:12,000 --> 00:38:15,120
Speaker 5: some level of normalcy with his talking points. You know,

715
00:38:15,200 --> 00:38:18,280
Speaker 5: there is an argument for you know, what he did

716
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:22,040
Speaker 5: for you know, in his administration economically, and of course

717
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 5: that's the appeal. What the platform at X gives him

718
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 5: is a whole lot more people than the sort of

719
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 5: quiet little crowd that has been assembled around you know,

720
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 5: his own social media outlet truth you know it's I

721
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 5: think last night was over a million people who tuned

722
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 5: in that That is significantly more than he's ever going

723
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 5: to get, you know, on true social So so that

724
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,720
Speaker 5: was a success to be able to expand his group,

725
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:51,719
Speaker 5: find listeners who are interested in him. My guess is

726
00:38:51,719 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 5: the people who made up that audience were the media

727
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 5: and his own hardcore supporters, so reassuring them that he's

728
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 5: on a track to win, reassuring that he's got a plan,

729
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 5: not going off the rails on a lot of conspiracy theories,

730
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 5: and frankly, I think Musk kept him from doing that.

731
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 5: He sort of kept it along a chatty way. So

732
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 5: I'd have to say they're probably all thankful that it

733
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 5: went as well as it did, but I don't think

734
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:19,920
Speaker 5: it moves the numbers at all. I think these are

735
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 5: people who are already supporting Donald Trump. He's not communicating

736
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 5: with swing voters on X.

737
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 3: Interesting response from the Harris campaign on this, referring to

738
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:34,840
Speaker 3: the fact that these two rich guys cannot actually serve

739
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:38,280
Speaker 3: a live stream in the year twenty twenty four. Genny,

740
00:39:38,360 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 3: I don't know if Elon Musk actually wants a role

741
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:44,720
Speaker 3: in another Trump White House if Donald Trump wins this election.

742
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 3: Does this have more to do with working with the

743
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 3: government as the leader of SpaceX, dealing with regulations, maybe

744
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 3: getting a foot in the door for evs in a

745
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:56,520
Speaker 3: Trump administration.

746
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think all of the above, I think. And

747
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 4: he would also, as an aside, like to keep energizing

748
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 4: the X platform. You know, advertisements are still way down.

749
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:10,960
Speaker 4: He has been able to play with some of the

750
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 4: reporting on the election so far. I mean, Joe Biden

751
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 4: announced him that he was leaving the race on X,

752
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,400
Speaker 4: so I think he would like to attract more people

753
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:24,600
Speaker 4: to X as well. But you know, to the point

754
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 4: about these two, you know, you're sitting there listening and

755
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:31,360
Speaker 4: I did after the elevator music for forty five minutes,

756
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 4: and when Donald Trump is talking about the biggest threat

757
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 4: is not from global warming and we don't really have

758
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 4: to worry about that because we're going to have more

759
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:44,239
Speaker 4: ocean front property. I mean, this is the kind of

760
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:47,799
Speaker 4: statement he's sending out to people. You've got to be

761
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 4: an extremely wealthy person to be thinking that global warming

762
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:53,200
Speaker 4: is not a threat because we're going to have more

763
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 4: ocean front property. I mean, it was my numbing to

764
00:40:56,280 --> 00:41:00,320
Speaker 4: listen to. It was not disciplined, and he was pretty

765
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:03,080
Speaker 4: much all over the map. So I don't think this

766
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 4: was the win his team wanted. He needs to be disciplined.

767
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 4: On Kamala Harris and what she will do to the economy, immigration,

768
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:14,280
Speaker 4: and security. That did not happen, you know, to borrow

769
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 4: a used phrase, It was a very weird conversation between

770
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 4: these two for two hours.

771
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:23,920
Speaker 6: All right, we'll leave it on that note. Jeanie Schanzeno

772
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 6: and Rick Davis, Gloomberg Politics contributors, thank you both so much.

773
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 6: As always, it was certainly a long conversation. I think

774
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 6: we can call it that. And of course, the first

775
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 6: portion of it, Joe was really dominated by Trump's recounting

776
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 6: of the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania last month, which he

777
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,400
Speaker 6: said in his RNC speech when he was accepting the

778
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:44,400
Speaker 6: nomination he was only going to tell that story once. Yeah,

779
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,799
Speaker 6: but we heard it several times.

780
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:49,120
Speaker 3: It seemed last night, so it wasn't very nice, and

781
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 3: Elon Musk suggested that he was inspired by what he

782
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 3: saw that that's why hed the statement from the Harris

783
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 3: campaign that I refer to Trump's entire campaign is in

784
00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 3: service of people like Elon Musk and himself, what they

785
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,759
Speaker 3: describe as self obsessed, rich guys who can't run a

786
00:42:03,800 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 3: live stream. In twenty twenty four.

787
00:42:09,080 --> 00:42:12,439
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

788
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 2: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then

789
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,279
Speaker 2: ron Oo with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also

790
00:42:18,360 --> 00:42:21,839
Speaker 2: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

791
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:25,719
Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

792
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:29,480
Speaker 3: So much happening in the world of politics. This is

793
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:32,320
Speaker 3: Balance of Power Live from Washington on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

794
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines in Washington. An important

795
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 3: day and important week when it comes to the economy.

796
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:40,720
Speaker 3: Kaylee PPI, today we're going to look ahead to CPI

797
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 3: in a moment with breaking news now that has to

798
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:45,600
Speaker 3: do with the conversation we were having earlier this hour,

799
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:49,360
Speaker 3: the wait for a possible cease fire deal in Israel

800
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 3: or a possible retaliatory strike by Iran against Israel, both

801
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 3: up in the air right now, Kaylee. And news from

802
00:42:56,760 --> 00:43:00,000
Speaker 3: Axios that the Secretary of State is changing his way

803
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:00,800
Speaker 3: travel plans.

804
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:01,080
Speaker 9: Yeah.

805
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,360
Speaker 6: Of course, Axios had reported that Blinken was going to

806
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,800
Speaker 6: be heading to the Middle East this week as we

807
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 6: await both news on Iran retaliation and also news on

808
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 6: a ceasefire agreement. Now Axios is reporting that BLNCN has

809
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 6: postponed that trip will not be traveling to the region

810
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 6: tonight due to uncertainty around the situation. Axios here citing

811
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:22,480
Speaker 6: two sources, and it just speaks to the very uncertain

812
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 6: nature of what's happening in the Middle East right now,

813
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 6: which of course does factor into the markets. Amy they're

814
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 6: talking about impact potentially on oil prices, and what we

815
00:43:30,480 --> 00:43:33,319
Speaker 6: do know is that geopolitical conflict in the Middle East

816
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 6: could actually have economic ramifications for that very reason. If

817
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 6: it did lead to the disruption of the way crude

818
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:41,000
Speaker 6: oil starts to move throughout the world.

819
00:43:40,760 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 3: Well, that's for sure. It's been pretty resilience so far,

820
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 3: but of course, with so many questions about what would

821
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:49,279
Speaker 3: happen next imagine if in fact Iran does land a

822
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:52,720
Speaker 3: punch with the words that Michael Allen used on Israel,

823
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 3: we could be having a really different conversation.

824
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 6: Certainly, and it may lead to a different conversation than

825
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:01,400
Speaker 6: the one we're having now on the subject of inflation. Ultimately,

826
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 6: of course, there is no predicting at this point that

827
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:07,439
Speaker 6: actually a war of that size and scale is going

828
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 6: to erupt, just that the risk is out there. Should

829
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 6: Ron not calibrate this properly or Israel not calibrate its

830
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 6: response accordingly. But the narrative right now is that inflation

831
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 6: is on the way down, and that was born out

832
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:20,280
Speaker 6: once again today in the PPI data. We got softer

833
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:23,279
Speaker 6: than expected. If you look at PPI X food and

834
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 6: energy month over month, flat zero percent is what we're

835
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,320
Speaker 6: talking about, and of course this tease up the CPI

836
00:44:30,440 --> 00:44:32,879
Speaker 6: report we're going to get tomorrow. So here to talk

837
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:34,440
Speaker 6: about all of this is Laura Raim, who is with

838
00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:37,440
Speaker 6: US now. She's Chief US Economists over at FS Investments.

839
00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:39,879
Speaker 6: Welcome to Balance of Power, Laur here on Bloomberg TV

840
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:43,279
Speaker 6: and Radio. Great to have you. We obviously have been

841
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 6: seeing now what to me feels like we could maybe

842
00:44:46,000 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 6: call a trend in softer than expected inflation data. I'm

843
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:51,320
Speaker 6: not sure the Fed is going to feel quite ready

844
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 6: to call it that yet, unless you think differently, or

845
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:57,399
Speaker 6: do we have to wait until CPI tomorrow to say

846
00:44:57,440 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 6: that for sure?

847
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 1: We do to wait for CPI tomorrow simply because you know,

848
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 1: the household is really the big engine both driving the economy,

849
00:45:07,600 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 1: and that's the biggest sector when we think of inflation

850
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 1: and that sort of loop to wages and then again

851
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:18,280
Speaker 1: back to inflation. So when we look at the trend,

852
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,360
Speaker 1: it certainly has been really positive and moving in the

853
00:45:21,400 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 1: right direction. Over the last two months. We saw after

854
00:45:25,440 --> 00:45:30,160
Speaker 1: four really tough months where inflation spiked January to April,

855
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 1: then two months where we really got a much more

856
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:37,240
Speaker 1: benign reading. And I think everyone's looking to tomorrow's data

857
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 1: to reinforce that trend, and I think to open the

858
00:45:41,040 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 1: door wide for the FED ratout that everyone's expecting on

859
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:45,360
Speaker 1: September eighteen.

860
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:50,719
Speaker 3: Well, how about reinforcing the idea that the Fed might

861
00:45:50,760 --> 00:45:55,800
Speaker 3: have waited too long here, Laura, the Personal consumption Expenditures

862
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 3: price index, which we all obsess over the PCE said

863
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:02,800
Speaker 3: to be the Fed's preferred inflation measure. All the components

864
00:46:02,840 --> 00:46:07,279
Speaker 3: from PPI that feed the PCE were tame. Should the

865
00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:09,760
Speaker 3: FED have cut in July when it had the chance.

866
00:46:10,880 --> 00:46:13,640
Speaker 1: You know, I'm not terribly worried that the FED is

867
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:18,399
Speaker 1: meaningfully behind the curve. The reality is that the economy

868
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:24,279
Speaker 1: remains healthy and on solid footing. My forecast is really

869
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 1: for an incremental slowdown. The reality is the pace of

870
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 1: growth has been so strong one might argue it has

871
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:36,360
Speaker 1: been unsustainably strong. Moving from two and a half percent

872
00:46:36,440 --> 00:46:40,080
Speaker 1: growth to two percent is a slowdown, and I think

873
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 1: markets were just really caught wrong footed because expectations had

874
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 1: been really i would say, at volume eleven maximum optimism.

875
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 1: So I think it's a mistake to read an incremental

876
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 1: slowdown is weakness. And let me put it in another way,

877
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:01,640
Speaker 1: if the FED is behind the curve, they have room

878
00:47:02,000 --> 00:47:05,759
Speaker 1: to cut rates more significantly. But I'm going to look

879
00:47:05,760 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 1: beyond the ism manufacturing data for that.

880
00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:12,880
Speaker 6: Well. Just as we're having this conversation, Laura, Raphael Bostic

881
00:47:12,920 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 6: of the Atlanta FED is participating in a moderated Q

882
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:18,880
Speaker 6: and A. He says he's hopeful in the next several

883
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 6: months of normalized economy. He also says a rate cut

884
00:47:21,480 --> 00:47:24,640
Speaker 6: is coming, but he wants to see a little more data. Obviously,

885
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:26,359
Speaker 6: we're going to get more of that data this week,

886
00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:29,200
Speaker 6: and if a rate cut comes, the expectation is it

887
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:31,400
Speaker 6: won't be until September, when we're going to be just

888
00:47:31,440 --> 00:47:34,120
Speaker 6: around the corner from a presidential election, Laura, which Joe

889
00:47:34,160 --> 00:47:37,600
Speaker 6: and I spend the great chunk of our time, the

890
00:47:37,640 --> 00:47:40,920
Speaker 6: biggest chunk of our time covering, and we're hearing more

891
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:43,720
Speaker 6: and more about the economic policies that each of these candidates,

892
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 6: Donald Trump and Kamala Harris may put forward. We'll hear

893
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:48,920
Speaker 6: even more from Harris later on this week. She's expected

894
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:51,439
Speaker 6: to outline it in North Carolina. But it does seem

895
00:47:51,480 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 6: like we're getting similar things, be it related to the

896
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:57,319
Speaker 6: child tax credit or this notion of perhaps no taxes

897
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:01,399
Speaker 6: on tipped income. From your views an economists, we've heard

898
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:03,080
Speaker 6: a lot about what that would do to the actual

899
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 6: US balance sheet, if you will, the kind of revenue

900
00:48:06,320 --> 00:48:08,279
Speaker 6: laps that may result from that. But what would that

901
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:11,799
Speaker 6: actually do to a labor market that is maybe just

902
00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 6: now starting to feel the effects of tighter policy. What

903
00:48:14,280 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 6: would that do to wages and the way that things

904
00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:20,280
Speaker 6: literally just work in the US labor market.

905
00:48:21,040 --> 00:48:25,280
Speaker 1: I think that particular policy may be more popular because

906
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:29,280
Speaker 1: it's a way of helping that lower cohort of workers

907
00:48:29,320 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: without putting the burden on the employer, because you know,

908
00:48:32,960 --> 00:48:37,319
Speaker 1: things like the minimum wage increases I think, you know,

909
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 1: have been mixed in popularity because the employers feel that

910
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 1: burden in a more pronounced way. And I think maybe

911
00:48:46,280 --> 00:48:50,359
Speaker 1: underlying this there is another issue, which is that we're

912
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:54,799
Speaker 1: starting to see delinquency rates from you know, creep up

913
00:48:54,880 --> 00:48:58,359
Speaker 1: and credit card loans and auto loans. That is that

914
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:02,439
Speaker 1: sort of lower cohort of income that has obviously also

915
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:07,200
Speaker 1: felt inflation most acutely. So you know, it's a question

916
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 1: of paying for these tax cuts. I think, unfortunately, that's

917
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 1: what it always comes down to. And we'll see as

918
00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 1: these policies develop. Certainly, I think it's something that hopefully

919
00:49:17,200 --> 00:49:19,400
Speaker 1: will be you know, I would expect to be popular

920
00:49:20,160 --> 00:49:23,080
Speaker 1: across the board, and I think this is an area

921
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:25,680
Speaker 1: that we're watching closely because cracks are forming in the

922
00:49:25,719 --> 00:49:29,319
Speaker 1: balance sheet of that cohort of employee.

923
00:49:29,719 --> 00:49:32,239
Speaker 3: Well, as we speak now, Laura, we still don't have

924
00:49:32,360 --> 00:49:37,040
Speaker 3: plans from either campaign, detailed plans on how they would

925
00:49:37,080 --> 00:49:40,759
Speaker 3: work to lower prices both are promising to do, so

926
00:49:40,800 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 3: we just don't know how. In the case of Vice

927
00:49:44,120 --> 00:49:46,680
Speaker 3: President Harris, we've been reporting that she's going to be

928
00:49:47,320 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 3: fleshing out her whole economic plan in Raleigh on Friday.

929
00:49:52,280 --> 00:49:55,680
Speaker 3: What does she need to say to be different than

930
00:49:55,719 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 3: so called Bidenomics. Is there such a thing as kamalonomics.

931
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:03,880
Speaker 1: So we're going to find that out together. But I

932
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 1: think when it comes to the FED and the way

933
00:50:06,760 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 1: that they think about their policy changes, they really wait

934
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:16,480
Speaker 1: until actual policy has been enacted or announced. They're definitely

935
00:50:16,680 --> 00:50:21,200
Speaker 1: not making policy changes based on campaign rhetoric. So I

936
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 1: think it's something to keep in mind as we move

937
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:27,120
Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five, because on the one hand, you

938
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:32,400
Speaker 1: have some policy proposals to lower costs and lower prices,

939
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 1: and on the other hand, things like tariffs are inflationary,

940
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 1: so we need to really, I think keep in mind

941
00:50:39,719 --> 00:50:44,400
Speaker 1: that different policy proposals impact both sides of the inflation equation,

942
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:48,960
Speaker 1: and when we look at in particular, as the campaign

943
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:51,799
Speaker 1: rhetoric heats up, the FED is really going to keep

944
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 1: its eye on the ball of the data that it's

945
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,480
Speaker 1: right in front of them, and not think too far

946
00:50:55,560 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 1: ahead about what inflation could do in coming quarters.

947
00:51:01,560 --> 00:51:04,320
Speaker 6: Well, yeah, we consistently hear the FED is data dependent.

948
00:51:04,480 --> 00:51:07,479
Speaker 6: It is not going to operate with political factors in mind.

949
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,080
Speaker 6: Hen's why we could see them cut in September, despite

950
00:51:10,080 --> 00:51:14,000
Speaker 6: perhaps some Republicans suggesting that that would be perceived politically.

951
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 6: We've also heard from both of these candidates about the

952
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:19,160
Speaker 6: independence of the FED just within the last week. Donald Trump,

953
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:22,000
Speaker 6: at a news conference in mar A Lago last Thursday,

954
00:51:22,080 --> 00:51:24,120
Speaker 6: was talking about this notion that he actually thinks the

955
00:51:24,120 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 6: president should have input into monetary policy. Kamala Harris bikes

956
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 6: to differ on that. We heard her say so this

957
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 6: past weekend. When we actually think about that notion of

958
00:51:33,239 --> 00:51:38,520
Speaker 6: FED independence, though, what mechanisms are realistically in place to

959
00:51:38,560 --> 00:51:41,760
Speaker 6: prevent that kind of political interference? Is this literally entirely

960
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 6: up to the given FED chair and whether or not

961
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 6: he is he or she is willing to consider what

962
00:51:47,040 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 6: the president wants in policy decisions.

963
00:51:50,960 --> 00:51:54,280
Speaker 1: I think we have now four and a half five

964
00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 1: decades of evidence that it really does work well when

965
00:51:59,680 --> 00:52:03,640
Speaker 1: the FED is truly independent. And let's face it, higher

966
00:52:03,680 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 1: interest rates rate hikes have never been popular with the

967
00:52:07,040 --> 00:52:11,400
Speaker 1: sitting administration. We saw that under Clinton. We just didn't

968
00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 1: have you know, Twitter at that time, and we let

969
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:19,399
Speaker 1: sort of a more back channel pressure get applied by

970
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:22,719
Speaker 1: maybe the Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin at the time sort

971
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:25,920
Speaker 1: of you know, saying some rhetoric to that effect. But

972
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:28,959
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, you know, it's never

973
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:33,239
Speaker 1: popular when rate hikes happen, and the reality is we

974
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:37,000
Speaker 1: do often need them as a policy response. The FED

975
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 1: needs to have that latitude. I think there is another

976
00:52:40,000 --> 00:52:43,920
Speaker 1: layer to this as well, where we may see and

977
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:47,080
Speaker 1: the reality is it would probably take Congress to make

978
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:51,160
Speaker 1: some of these changes to the Federal Reserve Act. There

979
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 1: is another layer to this, which is in emergency situations,

980
00:52:54,800 --> 00:52:59,280
Speaker 1: the FED has come through in very heavy handed terms

981
00:52:59,640 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 1: with some of their you know, financial market provisions and facilities.

982
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:08,920
Speaker 1: That may be an area where also politicians over time

983
00:53:09,400 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 1: try to claw back some FED independence, But I think

984
00:53:12,920 --> 00:53:15,839
Speaker 1: that that is very low on the list of priorities,

985
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 1: and certainly, you know, when we look at the way

986
00:53:18,640 --> 00:53:21,840
Speaker 1: the FEDS handle policy over five decades, it's hard to

987
00:53:21,880 --> 00:53:26,040
Speaker 1: point to independence as being a problem.

988
00:53:26,239 --> 00:53:28,560
Speaker 3: Well, in our last moment here, I asked you abou

989
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris's plan to lower prices or I guess plan

990
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:33,600
Speaker 3: to be unveiled. So I should ask you about Donald

991
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:38,000
Speaker 3: Trump's He says, drill, baby, drill. If you increase production

992
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 3: enough to unlock lower oil and gas prices, that filters

993
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,279
Speaker 3: through the system and does the job. Is that a plan.

994
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 1: I clearly oil and gas is going to be central

995
00:53:51,239 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 1: to both parties economic plans in terms of, you know,

996
00:53:55,760 --> 00:53:59,000
Speaker 1: keeping prices lower, and I think, you know, keeping gasoline

997
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:02,880
Speaker 1: prices lower, because this is a huge psychological pain point

998
00:54:02,960 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 1: for households when gas prices get above five percent five

999
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 1: dollars a gallon, households really find that psychologically challenging. However,

1000
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:15,279
Speaker 1: that has not been a key source of inflation. And

1001
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:17,960
Speaker 1: really I think we see spikes in gas, but they

1002
00:54:18,000 --> 00:54:23,799
Speaker 1: come back down again. The US energy industry today is

1003
00:54:23,920 --> 00:54:27,080
Speaker 1: much more mature, and I think much more rational about

1004
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:32,040
Speaker 1: their ability and their productivity to create and supply gas.

1005
00:54:32,320 --> 00:54:34,880
Speaker 1: I don't think that necessarily more drilling is actually a

1006
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 1: magic bullet for other problems that may be more related

1007
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:42,440
Speaker 1: to distribution, refinery, and other areas which may at the

1008
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 1: end of the day, impact inflation for households.

1009
00:54:45,040 --> 00:54:50,120
Speaker 10: More specifically, as we continue producing at record levels here

1010
00:54:50,120 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 10: in the US, Laura Raim, Thanks for joining a great

1011
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:55,839
Speaker 10: conversation with the chief US economist managing director on the

1012
00:54:55,880 --> 00:54:57,160
Speaker 10: investment research team.

1013
00:54:57,000 --> 00:55:03,440
Speaker 3: At FS Investment. Thanks for listening to the Balance of

1014
00:55:03,520 --> 00:55:07,040
Speaker 3: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already,

1015
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:10,360
Speaker 3: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and

1016
00:55:10,400 --> 00:55:13,040
Speaker 3: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC

1017
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:15,960
Speaker 3: at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.