Speaker 1: Check it down man now down Now. Thursday morning, November
Speaker 1: fift is the Beating the Book podcast Kill Alexander Megapod
Speaker 1: time for week eleven in the NFL. Ace hasn't said
Speaker 1: it yet this year, so I'll go ahead and say it.
Speaker 1: Where has the time gone? How are we at week eleven? Already?
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Speaker 1: score extra. At the end of the regular season, we
Speaker 1: will have you on the megapod for wild Card week
Speaker 1: to discuss your NFL trading success and of course go
Speaker 1: through the wild card games with you. So that is
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Speaker 1: And again you win it all. You're on the Megapod
Speaker 1: wild Card weekend. I update the stats on my Twitter
Speaker 1: at beating the book from time to time, so check
Speaker 1: it out. Give you the top five courtesy of the
Speaker 1: score X. That's the score x dot com defined all
Speaker 1: the download links. It is week leven, the one week
Speaker 1: where all the primetime games are the best games, best matchups,
Speaker 1: at least from a fan's perspective. We'll get to all
Speaker 1: of those Sunday daytime picks, and of course the final
Speaker 1: two questions as always on the show. The staples from
Speaker 1: wager Talk dot Com thirty nine years into business, Marco
Speaker 1: to Angelo Goo Morning Marco today. I am doing fine
Speaker 1: out that the technology of the podcast is working. I
Speaker 1: am ready to go feeling good. You know you should
Speaker 1: get your own show because you're you're a wizard at this. Yeah,
Speaker 1: technology proving to be hurdles everywhere. Let me just put
Speaker 1: it that way. And all my left lads and Eelman
Speaker 1: treating the Kansas City Chiefs like he treated the Seattle
Speaker 1: Seahawks back in still fading the chiefs, ladies and gentlemen.
Speaker 1: It's Ace, good morning, Ace, all right, good morning. That's all.
Speaker 1: We may be wrong once for this decade, so Chief
Speaker 1: Fans doesn't look good. I don't think I'll be wrong twice,
Speaker 1: but yeah, you're right. It does move so quickly. Can't
Speaker 1: believe we're already been in college basketball, man, and then
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving is next week? Does go too quickly, way too fast.
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving show up a little too early for everybody this
Speaker 1: year I have. I couldn't believe it's next week. When
Speaker 1: my wife said, you know, planning for Thanksgiving, I'm like,
Speaker 1: what are you talking about? What do you get already?
Speaker 1: And it's like, already it's next week. I can't believe it.
Speaker 1: The twenty second, that's an early Thanksgiving. And by the way,
Speaker 1: let me just say this, we do not do a
Speaker 1: megapod on Thanksgiving week, so everybody with the grown I
Speaker 1: get it. Yeah, we could try to get the group
Speaker 1: together on Wednesday, it just doesn't work out Thanksgiving week.
Speaker 1: We've tried it before. People are traveling, so we just
Speaker 1: take Thursday off Thanksgiving. We take the week off of
Speaker 1: the megapod. We will have guessing lines at the beginning
Speaker 1: of the week, but no megapod next week, so we
Speaker 1: apologize in advance for that. We'll be back the following week.
Speaker 1: For Week thirteen. That has always been a megapod tradition.
Speaker 1: If you will returning to the show, We Love Them
Speaker 1: back for the first time this season. The creator of
Speaker 1: the Power Rank dot Com. It's our friend Ed Faye.
Speaker 1: Good morning Ed, Good morning Gil. Thanks so much for
Speaker 1: having me on. I appreciate it. Ed is in snowy
Speaker 1: an arbor, braving the weather conditions. You think Michigan is
Speaker 1: getting to the college football playoffs? By the way, I
Speaker 1: believe there's a good chance. Last week I checked, I
Speaker 1: think it was about fifty fifty. But this Michigan team
Speaker 1: is on the rise. Ohio State's not quite the same program,
Speaker 1: so I'm pretty optimistic about their chances. Here's the thing. If,
Speaker 1: in fact, the old scenario that everybody's talking about now
Speaker 1: I was talking about on the Vicent Show Numbers Game
Speaker 1: a few weeks back, if Alabama runs the table but
Speaker 1: then loses to Georgia, Let's say a field goal in
Speaker 1: the SEC Championship, should Alabama be in and Michigan out
Speaker 1: ed um No, But obviously I'm biased, so everyone can
Speaker 1: make their own judgment about this. But what I have
Speaker 1: them meaning to do is figure out the probability that
Speaker 1: this scenario happens because you need Notre Dame to win
Speaker 1: these next two games. You need Michigan beat Ohio State,
Speaker 1: and I mean they're a pretty good chance to beat Northwestern.
Speaker 1: The chance of that scenario happens has got to be
Speaker 1: like five. So it's fun to talk about. Probably not
Speaker 1: gonna happen. At the end of the day, Marco, I
Speaker 1: went around town, as you were even witnessed to me
Speaker 1: doing this last year. I went around town before the
Speaker 1: playoff was elected, betting people saying Alabama will be in
Speaker 1: the final four, just getting a hundred dollar bills from everybody.
Speaker 1: It's awesome. There'll be one loss Alabama over Michigan. Absolutely,
Speaker 1: they'll be in. Yeah, they're they're Alabama is not left
Speaker 1: off the ticket. You got a sad part. What do
Speaker 1: you do with Georgia. Georgia will be into Georgia, into
Speaker 1: Georgia wins the SEC I ran, So you know, then
Speaker 1: Michigan is gonna be the odd man out because if
Speaker 1: Notre Dame runs the table, they're gonna they're in automatically
Speaker 1: because of the name. I just you know, they're the schedule.
Speaker 1: Strength doesn't is not going to apply, and Michigan will
Speaker 1: get to they will get to feel how Penn State
Speaker 1: felt a couple of years ago, Jack, same scenario. This committee,
Speaker 1: this committee has has moved conference champs that win a
Speaker 1: conference championship game over idle teams. So why does the
Speaker 1: Notre Dame the one left out? They're gonna be sitting
Speaker 1: at three will soon Clemson's in. Michigan jumps Notre Dame
Speaker 1: because they win a game. Georgia jump Notre Dame. Here's
Speaker 1: the answer to your question, ed because their Notre Dame,
Speaker 1: because they're Michigan. That's why they're getting in right now. No,
Speaker 1: college football is not a meritocracy, right, It's just completely
Speaker 1: bullshit and it's that And I'm not trying to be
Speaker 1: flip about it, but Marco saw me do this last
Speaker 1: year with some folks. I was so convinced Alabama we
Speaker 1: be in because I know how these people are in
Speaker 1: college football. Right, it's all about the money in the end,
Speaker 1: and it's such utter bullshit in the end who they
Speaker 1: put in. And so because it's not a meritocracy, there's
Speaker 1: obviously going to be a school or schools that just
Speaker 1: get absolutely shafted. But if it's all about the money,
Speaker 1: that that's in favor of Michigan, because Michigan will bring
Speaker 1: the eyeballs wherever they go in that semifinal game, not
Speaker 1: more than Notre Dame Alabama. The only teams got their
Speaker 1: own their own TV station, you know, they get their
Speaker 1: own contract for all of their games with NBC. Notre
Speaker 1: Dame's the lock if they if they run the table,
Speaker 1: there's no no way that they let Notre Dame out.
Speaker 1: I would be absolutely shocked. Um, if that scenario happens
Speaker 1: with the George Alabama game, it's gonna be unfortunately, Michigan
Speaker 1: odd man out. It's gonna be the exact same thing
Speaker 1: as Penn State was. The same situation. They're gonna win
Speaker 1: the conference championship and all of that in and gets
Speaker 1: route in the end because of somebody else being up there.
Speaker 1: And I'll bet you a hundred dollars. Oh yeah, first
Speaker 1: of all, so so I'm happy to do that. You're
Speaker 1: on gil, But but first of all, I mean, I
Speaker 1: gotta check what the number is. But there's about a
Speaker 1: thirty percent chance, probably a little bit less, that Georgia
Speaker 1: actually pulls that upside off. Yeah, we will revisited. Only
Speaker 1: in that scenario we obviously we got a long way
Speaker 1: to go. Yes, sir, that is the biggest topic of
Speaker 1: conversation in ann Arbor. I'm sure it is. I'm sure
Speaker 1: it is. Well before the basketball game last night. We Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's kind of taking up the airspace this morning. I understand.
Speaker 1: And it's no disrespect, by the way, to Michigan and
Speaker 1: the alumni, because I grew up in d C. For
Speaker 1: whatever reason, when I grew up in d C, and
Speaker 1: maybe it's still the case now, but Michigan is a
Speaker 1: huge school for d C high school graduates. So I
Speaker 1: have a bunch of friends who went to Michigan, and
Speaker 1: let me just say this to a man, they still,
Speaker 1: decades later, love everything Michigan like they hold Michigan above
Speaker 1: everything else in their lives, over any pros forwards team.
Speaker 1: So I respect Michigan. It's just how college football works.
Speaker 1: We'll see how it happens if in fact that scenario materializes.
Speaker 1: Let's talk NFL, gentlemen. This is one unbelievable series of
Speaker 1: primetime games beginning and let's do it from reverse Monday night,
Speaker 1: not only the best game, the Markee Game of the weekend,
Speaker 1: but the markete game of the NFL schedule from maybe
Speaker 1: the outset of the NFL schedule. It's the Chiefs and
Speaker 1: the Rams now. The biggest story in the league this week,
Speaker 1: of course, was the fact that this was originally intended
Speaker 1: to be played at Estadio a Steca in Mexico City.
Speaker 1: The field conditions were such that even the National Football League,
Speaker 1: led by Roger Goodell, who is hell bent on absolutely
Speaker 1: proliferating this sport globally, hell bent on having the three
Speaker 1: games in London and the game in Mexico City for
Speaker 1: his international series, they would have done anything not to
Speaker 1: move this game, but even they had to when the
Speaker 1: field was such caused by concerts, caused by soccer games,
Speaker 1: and weather just unplayable. Players on both teams threatened that
Speaker 1: not to play if in fact they kept it as Stadiosteca,
Speaker 1: and so they had no choice. The NFL didn't, and
Speaker 1: the game is now in l A. The number moves
Speaker 1: from two and a half to three and a half
Speaker 1: on that move to l A and favor of the
Speaker 1: home standing Rams. No Cooper Cup for the Rams. He's
Speaker 1: out for the season, and you have too high octane
Speaker 1: offenses to even in the Rams case, two very sort
Speaker 1: of beatable defenses suspect defenses. The total therefore informed by
Speaker 1: that six the three and a half. It is the
Speaker 1: highest total in the National Football League since as far
Speaker 1: back as six at least that's as far back as
Speaker 1: a reliable database goes. Uh. For some who have investigated
Speaker 1: this passionately sixty three and a half right now at
Speaker 1: sixty three or sixty three and a half, depending on
Speaker 1: where you're shopping. The total did not move once it
Speaker 1: went from Mexico City to Los Angeles. That's somewhat curious.
Speaker 1: We begin, as always with our guests, Mr Fang from
Speaker 1: the Power Rank. What you got here, Agil, You got
Speaker 1: to make sure that next time I'm at your house
Speaker 1: to build you a statue. Roger Goodell, I know how
Speaker 1: much you love the guys. I'm a big fan. Are
Speaker 1: you always on when I go on a Goodell rant?
Speaker 1: Is that always you that happens to be on? Maybe?
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean I listened to you otherwise.
Speaker 1: I appreciate what the show. I appreciate. I know you
Speaker 1: love the man not um, yeah, you know, I I think. Uh.
Speaker 1: This is obviously the super Bowl of the regular season,
Speaker 1: very exciting game. Um. The thing my number has ramps
Speaker 1: by five point two and that's adjusted for now they're
Speaker 1: playing in their their home field. UM. Surprised the markets
Speaker 1: have only moved to point with that. You know, when
Speaker 1: I do home field, it's about two and a half
Speaker 1: points over the last five years. Sorry two and a
Speaker 1: half points, I said that, right, yeah, UM. But the
Speaker 1: thing that really strikes me about this game are the defenses.
Speaker 1: I mean, we know that we need that. We know
Speaker 1: these offenses can score, we know that they can move
Speaker 1: the ball, and it's really a story of the defense.
Speaker 1: And when I, UH do my numbers, I have the
Speaker 1: RAMS is about a league average UH defense and um,
Speaker 1: for Kansas City, that's really not the case. When I
Speaker 1: look at I look at defense in two different ways.
Speaker 1: I look at yours for past attempt adjusted for strength
Speaker 1: of schedule, and their twelve in that category, which makes
Speaker 1: you think that maybe the Chief's defense is okay. But
Speaker 1: what I've been doing this year, and this is new
Speaker 1: for me, is looking at success rate. So success rate
Speaker 1: is uh, you know, an offense that succeeds if if
Speaker 1: you get half of the yards on first down, on
Speaker 1: second down and all the necessary yards on third and
Speaker 1: fourth down. Uh. And then what I do is I
Speaker 1: take that raw success rate and I adjust for strength
Speaker 1: of schedule in Kansas City is thirty feet out of
Speaker 1: thirty two NFL teams on defense by that metric. So
Speaker 1: the I mean, I see here two leade offenses, a
Speaker 1: Rams defense that's about the middle of the league could
Speaker 1: be better. Uh kind of have you gotta have some
Speaker 1: faith uh in that unit because because they've been good,
Speaker 1: and and then the Kansas City defense that's really going.
Speaker 1: So I really I like the Rams in this game.
Speaker 1: I would definitely towards them on the side. And UM
Speaker 1: six series a pretty high total. It wasn't didn't that
Speaker 1: Super Bowl between Atlanta and New England get into the sixties?
Speaker 1: Did it? I can't remember offhand. I want to say
Speaker 1: it was like sixty one or sixty two. And whenever
Speaker 1: you see a number like that in the NFL, I
Speaker 1: mean you almost always want to lean the under. My
Speaker 1: numbers like the under a little bit. But again that's
Speaker 1: that's always an effort proposition with with just such explosive offenses.
Speaker 1: I am efforting the Falcons Patriots super Bowl total at
Speaker 1: that time, New England was favored by three that much.
Speaker 1: I remember as far as what the total was the
Speaker 1: total in that game was. I know I had an
Speaker 1: under bed in that and uh saw that blow up
Speaker 1: with the beltdown, Yeah exactly, and plus like you know,
Speaker 1: Tom Brady throws a pick six in that game too,
Speaker 1: and I think it would have gone under without that play, right,
Speaker 1: I'm saying, yeah, I'm seeing fifty eight and a half,
Speaker 1: but I don't know if that's where it closed. You
Speaker 1: know that one and a half was the highest total, uh,
Speaker 1: that we've ever had in the NFL prior to this.
Speaker 1: And I don't remember which game it was, but I
Speaker 1: ms the Rams. I think wasn't in a couple of
Speaker 1: years when they had that Greatest Show on Turf team.
Speaker 1: What about that um that Packers Falcons playoff game that
Speaker 1: same year that the Falcons went to the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: I remember that one being in the close to the
Speaker 1: sixties as well, but not sixty three that I think
Speaker 1: is uh, that's the high water mark, sixty three and
Speaker 1: a half. As we do this on Thursday morning between
Speaker 1: the Chiefs and the Rams, I was talking about this
Speaker 1: game with the producer of my Behind the Book video
Speaker 1: series that I do with j rud the Vice president
Speaker 1: and MGM Racing Sports every week Matt Brown is his name,
Speaker 1: and Matt and I were talking about this Chiefs Rams
Speaker 1: game and we were saying, Okay, well, you know both
Speaker 1: coaches are going to go in with this attitude on offense.
Speaker 1: At first, I think one thought for Sean McVan Andy
Speaker 1: Reid will be, well, look, we want to keep the
Speaker 1: other offense off the field, so let's run the ball.
Speaker 1: Let's try to make a concerted effort to run the
Speaker 1: ball with Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley, respectively. But then
Speaker 1: the sort of second thought would would probably be Okay,
Speaker 1: even if they start that way, they're going to realize
Speaker 1: that they can just destroy the opposing defense so much
Speaker 1: that why are they even bothering with that if they
Speaker 1: can just matriculate quickly down the field. So I don't
Speaker 1: even know if that's a strategy that even is sustainable
Speaker 1: or even is something that will hold any water for
Speaker 1: more than five minutes. It's interesting game to even think about,
Speaker 1: and I have no real feel as to how it's
Speaker 1: going to go. Marco, what do you think? Well, for me, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I agree with the Rams being the side
Speaker 1: in this one. And because I know Kansas City, we're
Speaker 1: getting a little bit of false hope with Kansas City.
Speaker 1: People are talking the last you know, four weeks. You know, look,
Speaker 1: their defense is playing better all of a sudden. Now
Speaker 1: you know they only gave up ten and fourteen, and
Speaker 1: you know the Rams are given up in thirties. They
Speaker 1: give up forty five to the Saints. Let's just stop
Speaker 1: for a second and look at what Kansas City has
Speaker 1: played and the city in the last four games. They
Speaker 1: played a Cincinnati team the week after they were beat
Speaker 1: up by the Steelers physically, and then that last second loss.
Speaker 1: Then they played Denver, who has just you know, shot
Speaker 1: themselves in the foot all year. They played Cleveland in Arizona,
Speaker 1: two of the you know, worst teams in the league.
Speaker 1: You know, offensive not a threat. You flip that over
Speaker 1: and you look at the Rams and if you look, like,
Speaker 1: just what points they're giving up? Yeah, the Rams are
Speaker 1: given up more points per game. But look at the
Speaker 1: rundown of offenses and quarterbacks that they have faced. They
Speaker 1: faced Philip Rivers, they faced Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson twice.
Speaker 1: They faced Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Come on, you
Speaker 1: can't even compare the lineups of what the two defenses
Speaker 1: have faced in this one. I'm gonna go ahead. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna take the Rams in this game. I'm also going
Speaker 1: to take the the over. I know it's the squarest
Speaker 1: bet on the board. But guys, we're having a changing
Speaker 1: of the guard, and until Vegas five is with that
Speaker 1: new you know high watermark is, I'm gonna go to
Speaker 1: the over and I know that. You know the Sharks
Speaker 1: are gonna come in. They're gonna bet the under because
Speaker 1: that's what they do, because they don't they just don't
Speaker 1: see teams scoring as many points. But guys, we've seen
Speaker 1: it move on the bottom end. You know, you don't
Speaker 1: see thirty seven and thirty eights in the NFL anymore.
Speaker 1: You don't see forty ones that often anymore. They're they're
Speaker 1: moving the lines up. But yet, you know, when you
Speaker 1: get to the top end, there's that ceiling. Where do
Speaker 1: we stop at? I don't think this is high enough.
Speaker 1: I I see this game both teams getting into the thirties. Um.
Speaker 1: I actually have the Rams getting to forty in this one.
Speaker 1: And I was hoping this game was gonna stay in
Speaker 1: Mexico because uh, I would have liked it even more.
Speaker 1: I know the field conditions wouldn't have been conducive. But
Speaker 1: I was looking forward to seeing these two teams play
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter with both defenses gas from going up
Speaker 1: and down the field, watching each other trying to, you know,
Speaker 1: stop each other, and then playing that fourth quarter. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, with the fatigue factor, guys would just be
Speaker 1: breaking and plays open left and right. But I'm still
Speaker 1: going over the total, and I like the Rams not
Speaker 1: to mention sixty seven or sixty eight yard field goal
Speaker 1: attempts down in the elevation of Mexico City. It should
Speaker 1: be noted that the Rams are practicing in Colorado Springs.
Speaker 1: They were practicing in the elevation of Colorado in preparation
Speaker 1: for the game in Mexico City. They decided to hang
Speaker 1: out there practice the rest of the week before they
Speaker 1: head back to Los Angeles for this one murderers row
Speaker 1: of opposing quarterbacks. Though it's an excellent point from you, Marco,
Speaker 1: the Rams do want to clean up the penalties though,
Speaker 1: that's for sure. Ten penalties last week against the Seahawks
Speaker 1: for a hundred and two yards, many of which were
Speaker 1: just ridiculous, stupid defensive penalties that kept Seahawks drive sustained.
Speaker 1: So they can clean that up. That's another sort of
Speaker 1: check in the Rams box. Ace. Hey, you know what's
Speaker 1: really surprising with this matchup that I mean, and here's
Speaker 1: the bottom line with these two teams. They're both sitting
Speaker 1: at nine and one. And there's a simple reason why
Speaker 1: Kansas Cities eight and two against the spread and the
Speaker 1: Rams are only four and six against the spread. And
Speaker 1: the reason for that is because coming into the season,
Speaker 1: everyone was well aware that the Rams were going to
Speaker 1: be one of the elite teams in the NFL. Um,
Speaker 1: you looked at future ons, you looked at season win totals,
Speaker 1: and they were in the top three of the NFL.
Speaker 1: And any time that's already established, um, they're gonna put
Speaker 1: out a very difficult line, meaning you're not gonna really
Speaker 1: be able to turn a profit off those top tier
Speaker 1: teams when we go into the season knowing about them,
Speaker 1: and we touch on it on the podcast all the time.
Speaker 1: The one team that's been able to do that consistently,
Speaker 1: there's only been one. That's the New England Patriots, where
Speaker 1: even though every year going in, you know, the market
Speaker 1: concludes they will be competitive and elite, uh, they're still
Speaker 1: able to outperform the betting market. UM. Usually you can't.
Speaker 1: And the Rams are a perfect example of that. UM
Speaker 1: nine and one straight up, four and six against the spread.
Speaker 1: Like I say, the spread becomes a great equalis or
Speaker 1: embetting sports, we usually know whether team MAY or Team
Speaker 1: B is better. In most cases. Now, Kansas City there
Speaker 1: ain't into for the simple reason nobody saw them coming.
Speaker 1: Look what their season win total was coming into the season, UM,
Speaker 1: and they called most by surprise UM. And I think
Speaker 1: that's why you're looking at such a great a t
Speaker 1: S record. UM. I think there's there's value here on
Speaker 1: the Rams. UM. The fact that they're playing at home
Speaker 1: now and getting almost no respect as far as that
Speaker 1: the line goes for that adjustment from Mexico City to
Speaker 1: l A, that alone, I think gives you some line value.
Speaker 1: I don't think they adjusted enough. UM. But I also
Speaker 1: liked the total here. But real quickly I wanted to
Speaker 1: add what surprises me? And I wanted to know what
Speaker 1: you guys saw prior to the season. This line for
Speaker 1: this game, and and granted is in Mexico City was
Speaker 1: three Rams minus three UM. And and like I said,
Speaker 1: coming in, everyone no one's surprised that the rams are
Speaker 1: nine in one. But I think a lot of people
Speaker 1: are surprised case's nine in one and yet the lines
Speaker 1: pretty much right where it would have been prior to
Speaker 1: the season. That to me is a little bit surprising. Um,
Speaker 1: but I want to get to the total real quickly,
Speaker 1: and for me, I think it's it's again if you
Speaker 1: bet the younger, you're gonna be holding your breadth. I
Speaker 1: understand that these are two high profile offenses, and that's
Speaker 1: usually the case. Um, but real quickly. I always say,
Speaker 1: when you've got two great defenses, are two great offenses,
Speaker 1: it usually creates the perfect storm for the opposite to happen.
Speaker 1: You know, when you've got two great defenses, it's the
Speaker 1: perfect storm for and over because more times than not,
Speaker 1: the line shaded towards the bias of a low scoring game. Um,
Speaker 1: so you got line value. I think you couple that
Speaker 1: with two good defenses and and defense turns. It gets turnovers. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, some some three and ounce and then short
Speaker 1: drives and up and down the field could happen. It
Speaker 1: doesn't necessarily mean uh, no score or low scoring game.
Speaker 1: And I think it's the same with with the the
Speaker 1: high scoring, high profile offenses. I mean, I don't think
Speaker 1: a shootouts what you go in there wanting to happen.
Speaker 1: If anything, you want to see that other team's offense
Speaker 1: on the sideline, if that's the strongest part of their team. Um.
Speaker 1: So I got to give the Rams a little advantage
Speaker 1: there on the game planning. But it's finally for the total. Listen,
Speaker 1: this is the highest we've ever seen. So for me,
Speaker 1: it's it's an under or you've gotta pretty much leave
Speaker 1: it alone. And I agree with Marco, it's the changing
Speaker 1: of the guard and it's a different NFL. Um But
Speaker 1: the fact that they didn't adjust this total when it
Speaker 1: moved locations from a field we already know was terrible
Speaker 1: tells you that they're not really even sure where to
Speaker 1: put this total. They're waiting for the market to tell them.
Speaker 1: And none of the betting syndicates that I provide accounts
Speaker 1: for have touched the side or the total yet in
Speaker 1: this game, So they're just leaving it where it is
Speaker 1: and see what's gonna happen the as they expect the
Speaker 1: market to bet the over. But remember when you're going
Speaker 1: over sixty three, and if you look at Kansas City,
Speaker 1: only four of their ten games have gone over sixty three,
Speaker 1: and you look at the Rams, only four their ten
Speaker 1: games have gone over the sixty three. Um, I mean
Speaker 1: combine their ten overs, nine unders and a push. You know,
Speaker 1: it's not like they've been flying over in their games.
Speaker 1: If you bet the over for both these teams, you
Speaker 1: haven't made any money. And again, when you go over
Speaker 1: sixty three, nothing can go wrong, meaning they have to
Speaker 1: score more than two touchdowns every quarter, one eight minute drive,
Speaker 1: and your probability of catching that ticket just dropped significantly.
Speaker 1: Now again, they could score real quickly in bunches. I
Speaker 1: get it, but until I see it happen on the field,
Speaker 1: I just can't go over a number like sixty three.
Speaker 1: It's unprecedented. So for me it's it's under. And I
Speaker 1: like the Rams a little disagreement on the on the total,
Speaker 1: but I get It's. Like I said my conversation with
Speaker 1: my buddy Mett, it's like you think they'd come in
Speaker 1: wanting to keep the other offense off the field for
Speaker 1: long sustained drives, and then I think they'll quickly realize
Speaker 1: they can just torch the opposing defenses. But it's a
Speaker 1: good point ace when you have a total that high,
Speaker 1: it does bear saying. At least once one long drive
Speaker 1: can really put you behind the eight ball on and
Speaker 1: over I I hear both sides or you know, a
Speaker 1: seven minute drive, that's right, that's right. And I missed
Speaker 1: field goals, I was at a field goal in this
Speaker 1: game with a total like that is sort of like
Speaker 1: a turnover, right, A missed field goal, for sure is
Speaker 1: a turnover, but even a field goal is sort of
Speaker 1: a notch against going over that number. All that said,
Speaker 1: I'm not betting the under either. I'm with you, Marco,
Speaker 1: your breath, man. I don't know those bets, those bets
Speaker 1: that are the hardest to make usually cash the easiest,
Speaker 1: and the ones you're most confident with a like me
Speaker 1: last week you know what I uh or what was
Speaker 1: it two weeks ago? My most confident and you know
Speaker 1: they end up losing by thirties. So yeah, such a
Speaker 1: such a fun game to watch, this is gonna be
Speaker 1: and uh, I don't know. I like the ram side
Speaker 1: as well myself. Ace one thing, so you had that
Speaker 1: that preseason at three. That's got to be a neutral
Speaker 1: site spread, right, two and a half three, so it's
Speaker 1: probably like six, you know, at the beginning of the season,
Speaker 1: I would have made the seven and a half of
Speaker 1: the Rams. So that's in l A. But prior to
Speaker 1: the season, we knew it was in Mexico, right, I
Speaker 1: would have made it in l A seven and a
Speaker 1: half in Mexico City prior to the season in in
Speaker 1: l A. In l A seven and a half and
Speaker 1: you make their home field what two two and a
Speaker 1: half and okay, so in Mexico City it would have
Speaker 1: been five. Yeah, okay, that makes sense to me, that
Speaker 1: makes sense. It was three day thought Kansas City was
Speaker 1: league average ish. We thought Rams were a Super Bowl contender,
Speaker 1: and I mean it shows exactly shows you what Kansas
Speaker 1: City has done. Let's move on, gentlemen. Sunday Night flexed
Speaker 1: in the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears flexed out
Speaker 1: by the way, Pittsburgh Jacksonville, you can credit Jacksonville for
Speaker 1: that credit in quotes Minnesota at Chicago, NFC North battle
Speaker 1: between the six and three Bears and the five three
Speaker 1: and one Vikings. Interesting that when we talk about you know,
Speaker 1: and I've talked about it for months now, that it's
Speaker 1: Saints a Ram's in the NFC, it's Patriots chiefs in
Speaker 1: the a f C, though the Chargers and the Steelers
Speaker 1: will have something to say about that, especially after seeing
Speaker 1: the Patriots played last week. But the team that no
Speaker 1: one sort of talks about anymore, and this was the
Speaker 1: team that before the season started some people were already
Speaker 1: not even penciling in, but they were doing it more permanent,
Speaker 1: inc putting the Minnesota Vikings, exalting the Vikings to the
Speaker 1: top of the conference five three and one. They still
Speaker 1: have an outstanding defense, a defense that is tops on
Speaker 1: third downs. Uh, quitting new my buddies over an onside sports,
Speaker 1: Posing offenses are averaging eight point six yards to go
Speaker 1: on third downs against the Vikings, which is the equivalent
Speaker 1: of the Vikings basically turning opposing offenses into the Buffalo
Speaker 1: Bill's offense, because that's exactly what the Bills average yards
Speaker 1: to go on third downs on offense. So the Vikings
Speaker 1: have been unbelievable. By the way, the opposing offense third
Speaker 1: down rate as a result, it follows, is by far
Speaker 1: the lowest in the league, right at around twenty five percent.
Speaker 1: If memory serves me correctly, it's twenty something, mid twenties.
Speaker 1: But here's the thing, Mitch Drobiski last week three fifty
Speaker 1: five yards passing, three touchdowns note picks on forty eight
Speaker 1: point six passer rating out of a total of one
Speaker 1: fifty eight point three. Great game, and everybody's going crazy
Speaker 1: about Drabiski all of a sudden, But I'm not buying
Speaker 1: him for a second. He's a dinker and a dunker,
Speaker 1: and here now he faces the Vikings defense. Bears did
Speaker 1: snap that division drought, their first victory over division opponents
Speaker 1: since Halloween of ten in a row. They had lost
Speaker 1: against division opponents, so that snapped. But it's the Vikings here,
Speaker 1: and the Bears are the home team giving right now
Speaker 1: as we do this Thursday morning, it's two and a
Speaker 1: half consensus, Mark, how do you feel about this one? Well,
Speaker 1: one of the things I thought you were going to
Speaker 1: point out is because of the flax in Chicago's uh,
Speaker 1: you know, Jacksonville's inepness in Chicago becoming a you know,
Speaker 1: a player in the playoffs. Uh, this gets moved in
Speaker 1: and it is actually a huge disadvantage to Chicago. They're
Speaker 1: in a quandary here where they played Detroit last week.
Speaker 1: Guess they get to stay home two weeks in a row.
Speaker 1: So that helps. But they're gonna turn around off of
Speaker 1: this Sunday night game, which you know is gonna be
Speaker 1: finishing late, and turn around and play on a Thursday,
Speaker 1: not a Thursday night like most teams turn around, but
Speaker 1: Thursday at noon on the road. So tough, you know,
Speaker 1: problem for them after this and this is such a
Speaker 1: big game. And to complicate that, Minnesota's coming off of
Speaker 1: by so all of the advantages as far as intangibles
Speaker 1: go or in Minnesota's favor um add to the scheduling problems.
Speaker 1: You know, figure Minnesota's You've talked about their defense has
Speaker 1: been getting better and better, and they've now had two
Speaker 1: weeks to prepare their defense. Minnesota during the last five
Speaker 1: games their four and one straight up, four and one
Speaker 1: against the spread, and they've held four of those five
Speaker 1: opponents to twenty one points or less. The only team
Speaker 1: that scored more than that on Minnesota during that recent
Speaker 1: run was the Saints. Who is the team right now
Speaker 1: that is at the top of the heap as far
Speaker 1: as flavor of the week goes, because they've aren't it,
Speaker 1: They've done nothing wrong and his teams are scoring machine.
Speaker 1: But if you do go back to that game, and
Speaker 1: remember it, Minnesota was up thirteen to ten and driving
Speaker 1: right before the half with an opportunity to take a
Speaker 1: ten lead. That would have changed the whole complexion of
Speaker 1: that game. But the theeling fumble consequently gave Minnesota the
Speaker 1: turner excuse me, New Orleans the turnover, and they punched
Speaker 1: it in for a touchdown went the other directions. It
Speaker 1: was a fourteen point swinging that game. I think Minnesota's
Speaker 1: the side here. I'm taking Minnesota. I've got to winning
Speaker 1: the game. But where I'm gonna be even more kill
Speaker 1: And you know thousand and eight, pull up two thousand
Speaker 1: eight call and man, they're they're calling me, this is
Speaker 1: a low over under a forty four and a half
Speaker 1: because we've got defensive teams here, I'm hitting two and
Speaker 1: a half. I'm taking the six on top of it,
Speaker 1: going through the numbers of three, four or six and
Speaker 1: seven like you're supposed to do in a traditional teaser.
Speaker 1: And that's me. And uh, if you look at the
Speaker 1: Bears the last two weeks, and this is what scares
Speaker 1: me with the Bears, that they've won the games, they're
Speaker 1: putting up big numbers, but you cannot continue to live
Speaker 1: in the NFL rushing the football for sixty four and
Speaker 1: fifty four yards. Drabinski needs more balance against the good defense,
Speaker 1: and uh, if they can't find the running game this week,
Speaker 1: they'll be in big trouble. I am all about the
Speaker 1: Minnesota tease. I'm with you, and that is an interesting,
Speaker 1: uh point. Obviously the main point of the Bears here
Speaker 1: when you look at it from the Bears perspective, it
Speaker 1: will be about I'm gonna say, around eighty four hours
Speaker 1: between when they leave the field against the Vikings and
Speaker 1: take the field early Thursday morning on Thanksgiving. So that
Speaker 1: is an amazingly quick turnaround for an NFL football team.
Speaker 1: And in previous years, let's say they were playing some
Speaker 1: kind of patsy team here, we would talk about it
Speaker 1: being a total look ahead and that if they had
Speaker 1: a big number, you know, you should never play the
Speaker 1: favorite here because obviously they're gonna be thinking about that
Speaker 1: Thursday game. Maybe they rest players late and don't cover
Speaker 1: a big spread, but that's not the case. Here. They're
Speaker 1: playing the Minnesota Vikings arguably their biggest game of the
Speaker 1: year today. So tough position for the Chicago Bears to
Speaker 1: be in here. Cody Parkey by the way of the
Speaker 1: Bears that should be mentioned hit four consecutive uprights on
Speaker 1: two extra points and two field goals last week. I
Speaker 1: don't know that that means anything. In fact, I know
Speaker 1: it doesn't mean anything, but that's pretty damn incredible. The
Speaker 1: Bears defense sacked Matt Stafford last week six times. Khalil
Speaker 1: Mack had two of them. Kalil Mack back from his
Speaker 1: ankle injury, of course he'll be in the lineup for
Speaker 1: the Bears as well. Yeah, thisen, this game is huge.
Speaker 1: I mean, you got first place implications and absolutely right.
Speaker 1: I mean, Minnesota is that team that nobody's really talking
Speaker 1: about right now because they haven't been all that impressive.
Speaker 1: I mean, remember losing that game the sixteen seventeen point
Speaker 1: favorites against Buffalo, and it was kind of forget about Minnesota,
Speaker 1: look elsewhere. But they're sitting at five and three and
Speaker 1: coming off of buy and this is as big of
Speaker 1: a game for them as possible. Um. I couldn't agree
Speaker 1: with you more. This would be the perfect letdown spot
Speaker 1: with what Chicago has on deck, but they're not going
Speaker 1: to overlook um Minnesota. The problem with Chicago simple, it's
Speaker 1: not a team you really want to back UM as
Speaker 1: a favorite. I mean they've done well this year four
Speaker 1: and oh against the spread, but coming into this year,
Speaker 1: I think they've covered once as a home favorite and
Speaker 1: like their last seven or eight games, UM so not
Speaker 1: a team you really want to be given points more.
Speaker 1: You want to be getting points with a team like Chicago. UM,
Speaker 1: and Minnesota's owned them. I mean, this is a series
Speaker 1: that's been one sided of late. UM So, I like
Speaker 1: that Minnesota side for sure, and I can tell you
Speaker 1: with certainty, UM, Minnesota plus three and on their forty
Speaker 1: five is the hot sides. You know that that every
Speaker 1: group that I give accounts to race to get that,
Speaker 1: to get the plus three even at juice, and to
Speaker 1: get the under forty five, UM multiple hit it. So.
Speaker 1: I mean that's a legit move and I agree with it. UM.
Speaker 1: You're gonna see uh of of one dimension and I
Speaker 1: Marco nailed it. UM in today's NFL, you just can't
Speaker 1: do that. You need more balance. I hope Minnesota comes
Speaker 1: out and runs the football UM and slows it down
Speaker 1: for us, because I think this has a good shot
Speaker 1: of cash in side and total. Minnesota plus the three
Speaker 1: now two and a half and the Yonder for sure,
Speaker 1: So I agree with both those hot signs. Alan Robinson
Speaker 1: last week for the Bears six catches a hundred thirty
Speaker 1: three yards, two touchdowns. Anthony Miller for the Bears five catches,
Speaker 1: a hundred twenty two yards and a touchdown. But the
Speaker 1: Bears coming off two romps for nine over Buffalo at Buffalo,
Speaker 1: and then they scored on their first four possessions to
Speaker 1: grab a twenty six and nothing lead against the Lions
Speaker 1: last week before holding on. This ain't the Bills or
Speaker 1: the Lions. And yeah, so Chicago's a team that I've
Speaker 1: been watching all season with with Mr Drubiski and um,
Speaker 1: I've been kind of contrasting my adjusted yards per play
Speaker 1: with my Justice success rate, and earlier in the season,
Speaker 1: you know, they were top eight in terms of passing
Speaker 1: success rate, but in the lower half of the NFL
Speaker 1: in terms of yards per times. And this is exactly
Speaker 1: the dink and dunk stuff that you were talking about, Gil,
Speaker 1: And the game I'd like to point to is the
Speaker 1: I think it was a Monday night game against Seattle
Speaker 1: where I mean Seattle's defense couldn't stop them. Nothing explosive,
Speaker 1: but just like just grinding up first downs on then
Speaker 1: when they came pretty handily, Trabiski's completion rate was up
Speaker 1: near everything is kind of regress to the mean since
Speaker 1: then he's down to six completion I'm looking at their
Speaker 1: success rate now you know, it's still respect the ball nine.
Speaker 1: So like, yeah, everything you said Gil about about their
Speaker 1: their offense and um, you know when I when I
Speaker 1: run the numbers, I think inevitably the markets are gonna
Speaker 1: be a little bit too far in Chicago side. Just
Speaker 1: with the two results that you've talked about. UM, my
Speaker 1: numbers definitely leaned towards Minnesota. Um, I don't really love
Speaker 1: the side, just because I just don't know what's going
Speaker 1: on with this Minnesota team. Came in as a Super
Speaker 1: Bowl contender. They look kind of mediocre both on the
Speaker 1: offensive and defense of the ball. Um by my numbers,
Speaker 1: so um, and you know my number has it right
Speaker 1: at fourty four and a half for for the total.
Speaker 1: So this is this is why I would lean Minnesota side.
Speaker 1: But otherwise I would stay away from all Right, everybody's
Speaker 1: sort of leaning in even stronger conviction than leading onto
Speaker 1: the vikings. Myself included let's go to Sunday Day games. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I do like a lot. This week, I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: on something different. I have been given a total off season,
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna go with a total this week. You know,
Speaker 1: I have some sides jumping out. Let's go Carolina and Detroit. Um.
Speaker 1: You can't look worse than Carolina did, uh last Thursday
Speaker 1: against the Pittsburgh Steelers, at least defensively, and in fact,
Speaker 1: all the quotes coming out of Carolina was just how
Speaker 1: humbled they got UM by the Pittsburgh Steelers. UM in
Speaker 1: that game, allowing you know, three nineteen yards, but more
Speaker 1: importantly twenty three or twenty seven passing for the Steelers,
Speaker 1: I mean, pretty much perfect and just ran the ball
Speaker 1: down their throats as well, thirty times for a hundred
Speaker 1: thirty eight yards. So I think that defense is really
Speaker 1: being called out this week. UM. And I think they're
Speaker 1: much better than what they showed and against the Detroit
Speaker 1: team that their trajectory has just been downhill. UM since
Speaker 1: that win against my Ammy in mid October. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's a team that's lost the Seattle Minnesota Chicago back
Speaker 1: to back divisional games on the road, and they have
Speaker 1: Chicago up next on a short week, UM, and again
Speaker 1: The problem with Detroit is they can't run the football.
Speaker 1: And if you can't run the football and you're just
Speaker 1: dropping back the pass, you make it really easy for defense.
Speaker 1: So I see Carolina running it down their throats, UM killing,
Speaker 1: eating up a lot of clock, and Detroit having problems
Speaker 1: putting up points, kind of like against Minnesota against Seattle
Speaker 1: where they were able to put up nine and fourteen
Speaker 1: respectively in both those games. UM, it's got that kind
Speaker 1: of matchup written all over it. But then you look
Speaker 1: on the flip side quickly on Detroit team, it's the
Speaker 1: defense that isn't great. But other than that Chicago thirty four,
Speaker 1: they haven't given up all that many points, you know,
Speaker 1: keeping teams belowd at thirty UM. And if they could
Speaker 1: do that, this game will stay under that forty nine
Speaker 1: and a half fifty wherever it sits right now, we
Speaker 1: bet it under fifty one UM. As soon as the
Speaker 1: line came out. There is a race that had under,
Speaker 1: and I agree with that move immediately I got down.
Speaker 1: I still think there's value at under. Just get it
Speaker 1: before it drops even lower under on the Carolina Detroit game.
Speaker 1: That total right now, it's called forty nine and a
Speaker 1: half right now across the board. Lions at home early
Speaker 1: on Sunday. What's your game? Yeah, you know, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with the Thursday night game here. Um, we're looking
Speaker 1: at green Bay at Seattle, and I don't really know
Speaker 1: why Seattle is such a favorite. Well, I guess we
Speaker 1: should start with green Bay. I know this team has
Speaker 1: some issues, uh, I mean, they haven't been great on
Speaker 1: defense and offense given the fact that they have Aaron
Speaker 1: Rodgers hasn't really impressed and everyone wants Mike McCarthy out,
Speaker 1: Lisa and the Packers fan base and and I kind
Speaker 1: of get it. It's kind of one of these relationships
Speaker 1: that's gone on too long and everyone could use a
Speaker 1: fresh start. But on the other side of the ball,
Speaker 1: I mean I thought of Seattle as uh slightly below
Speaker 1: average NFL team before the season started, and the numbers
Speaker 1: completely confirmed that. So they're about a half a point
Speaker 1: below NFL average by the numbers that I saved for
Speaker 1: members of my site, And um, you know, I would
Speaker 1: actually make green Bay one point favorite on the road here.
Speaker 1: I don't really see any injury situation that makes me
Speaker 1: change my mind. I don't, I don't. I don't know
Speaker 1: if it's Seattle just getting credit for staying close with
Speaker 1: the Rams last week. I mean they've lost their last
Speaker 1: two games. Um so green Bay side. I think it's
Speaker 1: plus two and a half right now at at Seattle
Speaker 1: as plus three. Definitely like plus three uh in this
Speaker 1: Thursday night game, green Bay over tease for me, Marco
Speaker 1: green Bay over. By the way, all five of Seattle's
Speaker 1: losses have come by one score this year. Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: seventeen touchdown passes, one pick despite playing with the spring knee,
Speaker 1: and the Packers have definitely found something in Aaron Jones.
Speaker 1: They knew it was coming. It was only a matter
Speaker 1: of time. But Aaron Jones hundred forty five yards rushing
Speaker 1: two touchdowns last week against the Dolphins in the Packers
Speaker 1: to twelve win. He leads the NFL with six point
Speaker 1: eight yards per carry. Back to back losses to the
Speaker 1: Chargers in the and the Rams and the Seahawks have
Speaker 1: allowed seven point three yards per carrying six point five
Speaker 1: yards per carry, so expect a healthy dose of Aaron
Speaker 1: Jones tonight. On the other hand, by the way, Seattle
Speaker 1: they have found their running game. They lead the NFL
Speaker 1: and rushing in yards per game even found Rashad Petty
Speaker 1: last week. Uh they're never ending turnstyle of running backs
Speaker 1: in Seattle Seahawks favored by three ed is on Green
Speaker 1: Bay Marco. Yeah, I agree with the old Green Bay
Speaker 1: Minnesota teaser, the Black and Blue Division time teaser. To
Speaker 1: take it, as they would say, it's free money, printing money.
Speaker 1: Take it. I'm gonna go to uh team. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go opposite a team that I've been writing for a
Speaker 1: while and been you know, popping off about their wind record.
Speaker 1: Now all of a sudden, everybody's putting the stat up
Speaker 1: on the Chargers that since week blah blah blah they
Speaker 1: got the best record. Well, we talked about that three
Speaker 1: weeks go here on the show, and they're now seventeen
Speaker 1: and four straight up their last games. You look at it.
Speaker 1: But now I'm gonna go the other way. Now everybody's
Speaker 1: talking about the Chargers and they're the fashionable sleeper and
Speaker 1: look out for them because here they come. Well, let's
Speaker 1: break them down a little bit further. I always pointed
Speaker 1: out that that seventeen and four mark the four losses
Speaker 1: came to New England Casey last year in the Rams
Speaker 1: and KC this year. Four very good teams obviously, uh
Speaker 1: with their four losses. So this is a team that
Speaker 1: you know, you take those four out. Man, there's seventeen
Speaker 1: and oh but let's look at the wins this year,
Speaker 1: and people are just overlooking the fact that the Chargers
Speaker 1: right now, they're at a pretty soft schedule that they've
Speaker 1: run through with this winning streak, they've won six in
Speaker 1: a row. In that six game streak, you have San Francisco,
Speaker 1: you had Oakland that I can't even call a football
Speaker 1: team right now, You had Cleenland, you beat your best
Speaker 1: winning team that you beat with Tennessee, and that way
Speaker 1: was in London on a bonehead decision to go for
Speaker 1: two when that game should have went the overtime. Tennessee
Speaker 1: at all the momentum in the second half of that game,
Speaker 1: and then a deep Seattle who's barely a winning team,
Speaker 1: and then Oakland again. I think Denver has a great
Speaker 1: shot here. Nobody's talking about. This line is too high
Speaker 1: in my opinion, because San next, the Rams and Sanity
Speaker 1: I'd still called San Diego. The two l A teams
Speaker 1: have the least home field advantage of any of the
Speaker 1: NFL teams, and right now the Chargers have the least
Speaker 1: because you go to you know, nobody's going to the games. Uh,
Speaker 1: Denver is coming off thereby they're the better defense. Right now,
Speaker 1: I gotta take the points. You give me the points
Speaker 1: with the better defense. And given the schedule that the
Speaker 1: Chargers have faced, when you say that in recent weeks,
Speaker 1: case team is going to be the cup of quarterback
Speaker 1: that you've you've faced they did face Russell Wilson, I'll
Speaker 1: retract that. That's not saying a big statement. I'm going
Speaker 1: with Denver plus the points. And uh, you'll be hearing
Speaker 1: me say Denver a second time when you ask me
Speaker 1: another question. Denver catching seven here at Los Angeles at
Speaker 1: Stubub Center. It's not a stadium, it's not an arena,
Speaker 1: it's a center. Chargers though, for everybody who says, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, they don't have home field, they tend to
Speaker 1: win there quite often, but they tend to win everywhere.
Speaker 1: As you point out, Marco, Uh, and the Chargers do
Speaker 1: get the Cardinals at home next week. So the Chargers
Speaker 1: on the CUSP, if they can get by the Broncos
Speaker 1: and the Cardinals of being nine and two, the team
Speaker 1: that that move from Mexico City to Los Angeles. Potentially
Speaker 1: benefited the most is the l A Chargers, who makes
Speaker 1: it that much more likely the Chiefs lose that game,
Speaker 1: as they have to now actually play at the Rams
Speaker 1: home field. And if that's the case, if the Chiefs lose,
Speaker 1: their Chargers win Chargers one game back. Eaves do have
Speaker 1: the tiebreaker though, having beaten the Chargers earlier this season,
Speaker 1: and they have the second head to head at home.
Speaker 1: But just saying the Chargers will only be one game
Speaker 1: back in the standings, it is not fated accompli that,
Speaker 1: as great as the Chiefs have been that they win
Speaker 1: this division still in the driver's seat. But I'm just
Speaker 1: saying that move from Stadi O Steca in Mexico City
Speaker 1: to Los Angeles could potentially have helped the Chargers more
Speaker 1: than anybody. All Right, gentlemen, before we get to the
Speaker 1: Thursday night thoughts, and Ed's already given his Thursday Night thoughts,
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Speaker 1: You like the Packers, Marco, Yeah, read the Packers in
Speaker 1: the game. This is one where, uh where I really
Speaker 1: like more though I tease the Packers, but I like
Speaker 1: the under in this game. Short week, I think you're
Speaker 1: gonna see both teams try to run the football a
Speaker 1: little bit. I'm taking under as we see these primetime
Speaker 1: games get pumped up on the total, and I think
Speaker 1: it's too high based on RAM Seattle. This is not
Speaker 1: Ram Seattle. Hey, so this is a really good Thursday
Speaker 1: night game because both teams needed the proverbial must win
Speaker 1: situation Packers four four and one and the Seahawks four
Speaker 1: and five. I would argue that the Packers schedule moving
Speaker 1: forward is a little easier. Seahawks still have a gauntlet
Speaker 1: here the rest of the way. Seahawks caught a huge
Speaker 1: break that Jimmy Garoppolo got hurt, because if he was
Speaker 1: still playing for the Niners, it would be a horrific
Speaker 1: nine game stretch to close the season. Or maybe they
Speaker 1: have an easy game late, but basically a really tough schedule.
Speaker 1: They had to play the Chargers in the Rams. They
Speaker 1: got the Packers here. They got another tough game at
Speaker 1: Carolina next week. Huge in terms of playoff possibilities. The
Speaker 1: outcome of this one, how do you see it? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I agree with Marco. I like the under in this game. Also,
Speaker 1: I think it's one of those matchups where you're gonna
Speaker 1: see just a of running the football from both of
Speaker 1: these teams, even though you have two great quarterbacks. I
Speaker 1: think you're going to see a lot of trying to
Speaker 1: establish the run, not just come out throwing the football,
Speaker 1: because both have had success doing that. Um. You look
Speaker 1: both of these teams, especially over the last four weeks.
Speaker 1: Seattle's really run the football well. Um. And you look
Speaker 1: at I mean green Bay the last four weeks. In
Speaker 1: Seattle the entire season pretty much, um, except for that
Speaker 1: game against Chicago where they lost by a touchdown. They
Speaker 1: they've been running the football really well. So I think
Speaker 1: you're gonna see more of that tonight, and hopefully that
Speaker 1: clock keeps ticking and we could get a lower scoring game.
Speaker 1: I agree with Marco. Let's go under green Bay Seattle, alright,
Speaker 1: totally at forty nine right now in this ball game tonight.
Speaker 1: All right, gentlemen, final two questions. I've had to uh
Speaker 1: doctor this first one because there are just not that
Speaker 1: many candidates. The big favorite most likely to lose outright,
Speaker 1: I gotta drop this down to five and a half
Speaker 1: as a parameter to include four games. So there's New
Speaker 1: Orleans ed. New Orleans eight and a half point favorites
Speaker 1: at home against the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
Speaker 1: New Orleans Marco teaser alert. Uh, the Chargers seven point
Speaker 1: favorites at home against the Broncos. Teaser alert Chargers Arizona.
Speaker 1: How bad are the Raiders that? The Arizona Cardinals are
Speaker 1: five and a half point favorites at home against Oakland
Speaker 1: and then um the game that was flexed out, Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: five and a half point favorites on the road against
Speaker 1: three and six Jacksonville and a f C Divisional playoff
Speaker 1: rematch if you will at Jacksonville. Which are those big
Speaker 1: favorites the biggest on the board anyway, is the most
Speaker 1: likely to lose out right? In your opinion? Ed? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with New Orleans losing to Philly. Uh.
Speaker 1: Philly's clearly been a disappointment, a little bit of Super
Speaker 1: Bowl hangover, kind of look average on both sides of
Speaker 1: the ball. When you look at New Orleans. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: they can definitely move the ball. But after a brief
Speaker 1: blip last year of having an average defense, they're back
Speaker 1: to the bottom of the league the thirtie in when
Speaker 1: I look at adjusted yards per play their twenty nine
Speaker 1: and adjusted success rate for the defense. Um, I don't
Speaker 1: know what's going on. Marshall Latimer is not playing as well.
Speaker 1: I mean he was kind of the rookie that came
Speaker 1: in last year at cornerback, and uh, you know, my
Speaker 1: my numbers, uh make New Orleans about a five point
Speaker 1: favorite here. So uh and I just you know, I
Speaker 1: just can just see this as a game that Philly
Speaker 1: goes in and and and wins this game. Out right, Um,
Speaker 1: going with the Saints is the team most likely lose.
Speaker 1: Out right. Should be pointed out that the Eagles, Saints, Broncos, Chargers,
Speaker 1: and Raiders Cardinals three games that we just mentioned. Among
Speaker 1: those four are the three afternoon games. So every game
Speaker 1: this weekend of the early games, every game Sunday morning
Speaker 1: four points spreads or lower. Every single game, with the
Speaker 1: exception of the game that got flexed out. The other
Speaker 1: one in this equation Pittsburgh at Jacksonville, which is now
Speaker 1: an early game Marco, which is the favorite of the
Speaker 1: biggest ones most likely to lose out right. Well, as
Speaker 1: I said, I like Denver od I think they have
Speaker 1: a good chance to go in there and pull the
Speaker 1: upset off of the bye week. You know, I like
Speaker 1: to take teams that went into the bye week ugly.
Speaker 1: You can't go into the bye week any uglier than
Speaker 1: Denver did. And you know, so you know they should
Speaker 1: be focused and prepared to give their best effort in
Speaker 1: being a division game. And really, um, as far as
Speaker 1: the coach goes, I really think Evans Joseph is uh
Speaker 1: coaching for his job here if there's no seat hotter
Speaker 1: than his in the NFL right now, and uh, you
Speaker 1: know they lose this one out of the break and
Speaker 1: that I don't know if Denver is a team that
Speaker 1: franchise it likes to fire mid season, but this would
Speaker 1: be the candidate for it to happen. Geez, how many
Speaker 1: coaching openings are there gonna be the day after this
Speaker 1: season ends. You might even get an offer that there
Speaker 1: might be ten openings. Literally, they might be ten, because
Speaker 1: there's gonna be some teams that you don't expect like
Speaker 1: maybe a Dallas or a Seattle, or a Baltimore or
Speaker 1: a Washington if they don't make the playoffs. More Yeah,
Speaker 1: John Harbon rumored to be on the on the hot
Speaker 1: seat as well. We'll see. Hey, same question, which are
Speaker 1: the big favorites of the biggest anyway those four is
Speaker 1: the most likely to lose that right, I'm going with
Speaker 1: the Chargers too. I think Denver's live in this game.
Speaker 1: UM Charges look great obviously, excuse me, winning sixth grade
Speaker 1: games covering for their last five. But if you look
Speaker 1: at Denver UM even in their losses, if you look
Speaker 1: over the last few I mean throw out the Jets
Speaker 1: game UM and at the road at Baltimore, but they've
Speaker 1: lost close games, meaning against Houston that was a game
Speaker 1: they only lost by two against the Zone, and they
Speaker 1: beat them against the Rams at home, only lost that
Speaker 1: one by three. UM even against Kansas City only by
Speaker 1: a touchdown. So they're able to hang in the games.
Speaker 1: And if you're able to do that, you're obviously able
Speaker 1: to win a game. And I think Denver is that
Speaker 1: one that could throw a wrench and ruin a lot
Speaker 1: of teasers. On Sunday we saw last week, right out
Speaker 1: of the gate, a couple of those favorites went down
Speaker 1: and eliminated all the exotics for the books. Um, this
Speaker 1: one I think has the makings of of helping them
Speaker 1: out too. I could see Denver winning this one. Let's
Speaker 1: not forget they got embarrassed last time winning the San
Speaker 1: Diego lost that game twenty one. Nothing got shut out.
Speaker 1: Never want that to happen. So maybe a little extra incentive,
Speaker 1: I'll take Denver in this one. Alright, thirteen games in
Speaker 1: the NFL this week, gentlemen, six teams on by of
Speaker 1: those thirteen games, Let's say we lived in a world
Speaker 1: now Cincinnati and Baltimore does not have a line. I
Speaker 1: should point that out. The reason there is no line
Speaker 1: for the Cincinnati Baltimore games because we don't know if
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco is gonna play. Joe Flacco with hip injuries,
Speaker 1: uh so, no decision on whether he will be behind
Speaker 1: center for the Ravens or if it will be Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 1: the Ravens first round pick from this year, if he
Speaker 1: will be behind center, or Ladies and gentlemen party like
Speaker 1: it's could it gay? Could it be Robert Griffin the
Speaker 1: third behind center for the Baltimore Ravens. And if it's
Speaker 1: r G three, you know that this spread is gonna
Speaker 1: be like minus twenty four or something in favor of
Speaker 1: the Ravens, something like that. I'm thinking, no, no, not
Speaker 1: minus Donny More. All right, maybe I got that part whatever.
Speaker 1: I'm on steroids from my arm by the way right now,
Speaker 1: so maybe maybe that was Maybe I was wrong about
Speaker 1: that anyway, So there's no line for that. But of
Speaker 1: the other games, the other twelve, if you had to
Speaker 1: pick a side in every one of them, but you
Speaker 1: were allowed one pass, maybe maybe it is Cincinnati Baltimore,
Speaker 1: if it was Lamar or Robert Griffin, I don't know.
Speaker 1: Maybe we throw that into the mix. Which would it
Speaker 1: be though, ed, Yeah, thanks for asking me that. First.
Speaker 1: You're welcome, probably welcome. I want no part of Oakland
Speaker 1: at Arizona. So if Rams versus Chiefs is like me
Speaker 1: Weather versus Pacio, this game is Chloe versus Kim Kardashian.
Speaker 1: I mean, seriously, Arizona is a five point favorite in
Speaker 1: this game? Would they be a five point favorite against Alabama?
Speaker 1: Like this team is not good and but yet I
Speaker 1: mean the narrative with Oakland is oh, they're tanking, and
Speaker 1: you know, Gruden's in there and it's first year, and
Speaker 1: you know, I've just done some interesting things with getting
Speaker 1: all these first round picks for next year and um,
Speaker 1: and you know, there's some underlying metrics that suggests Oakland
Speaker 1: isn't as bad as as they appeared to be on
Speaker 1: the scoreboard. But I mean, I want no part of
Speaker 1: this game. We got into that conversation this week on
Speaker 1: on a numbers game on Visa, and I think we
Speaker 1: did throughout the whole network because Jeff Sherman at the
Speaker 1: West Gate, uh, and John Murray at the Westgate got
Speaker 1: into this whole hypothetical and this happens about once a year.
Speaker 1: What happens if the best team in college football played
Speaker 1: the worst team in the pros. And before this past weekend,
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills were the target. Right before h you
Speaker 1: knew that it was gonna be a route of the Jets,
Speaker 1: So it was Alabama versus the Bills. What would be
Speaker 1: that line? And John Murray came out with thirty five,
Speaker 1: to which Jeff Sherman responded, Uh no, I'd go twenty
Speaker 1: eight and a half as as if as Chrissie Andrews
Speaker 1: heard the twenty and a half and we're at the
Speaker 1: south point. He goes, really a half, like you've got it,
Speaker 1: You've got it calib rated that much that you put
Speaker 1: a half on it. Anyway, it's it's a ridiculous conversation
Speaker 1: as always, you know, but that, but that's kind of fun, right,
Speaker 1: because like Alabama's got the better quarterback and not by
Speaker 1: a little bit. Well, well, we always say, here's the
Speaker 1: thing that we always say. I always preface it by saying, listen,
Speaker 1: it's a hypothetical. It's never gonna happen. So with that respect,
Speaker 1: it's dumb. But I I am the one person who
Speaker 1: does say after that, at least at our network, who says,
Speaker 1: but it is a fascinating It is fascinating to note
Speaker 1: that if that game, let's say, did happen, that the handle,
Speaker 1: just like Mayweather McGregor, would be through the roof. People
Speaker 1: would bet on it like crazy, And it's a reflection
Speaker 1: of how our brains are wired, right, It's part of
Speaker 1: the human condition. We love that conversation. We love two
Speaker 1: things from two different disciplines pitted against each other. That
Speaker 1: fascinates us. By the way, he went on to say,
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Cavaliers versus Duke the Duke Blue Devils, who
Speaker 1: have played at that time just one basketball game against Kentucky.
Speaker 1: And he said, and he said, Cavaliers minus twenty two
Speaker 1: and a half. I love, I love, I love the
Speaker 1: number minus twenty two and a half. I'll think plus
Speaker 1: twenty two and a half. Will you really? Oh yeah, man,
Speaker 1: Zion is good. R J. Barrett is great. To my goodness,
Speaker 1: that dude Blue Devil's team. Literally, I saw one game
Speaker 1: against Kentucky and I was like, the college basketball season
Speaker 1: is over. I don't need to see any more. It
Speaker 1: was really that impressive. I mean it really was. Never
Speaker 1: want to make, never want to make too much of
Speaker 1: one game, but man, they were impressive. It's all I
Speaker 1: need to see the it's it's all an exhibition from
Speaker 1: here on now. By the way, William Hill offering will
Speaker 1: they go undefeated at twenty one? Not nearly high enough
Speaker 1: for me? Not nearly high enough. Alright, Marco, same question,
Speaker 1: which of these games you want no part of it's
Speaker 1: it is probably gonna be a sweep. You can't play
Speaker 1: a game like this where you know what Oakland's intentions
Speaker 1: aren't And that's the tank I mean, it's clear what
Speaker 1: they're doing, But do you want to lay this number
Speaker 1: with Arizona? You just can't with an offense. How can
Speaker 1: you play points with the team that has scored fourteen,
Speaker 1: eighteen seventeen the last four games and ask them to
Speaker 1: cover a number. Well, I guess you could do it
Speaker 1: against the team that scored six and three in their
Speaker 1: last two games. But I can't do it if Oakland
Speaker 1: has any pride, if I'm a player on that team,
Speaker 1: and you know you, everybody's got to hear because it's
Speaker 1: there's not one single talk show that has not talked about.
Speaker 1: This is the one game Openen definitely has to lose
Speaker 1: if they want to secure the number one. You know,
Speaker 1: uh draft pick blah blah blah. It ain't hard dead stuff.
Speaker 1: You know what's gonna end up happening. They're gonna lose.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be on a late field goal and it'll
Speaker 1: probably sneak in under the number. I'm not I'm not
Speaker 1: there for. I won't even watch this game. I do
Speaker 1: not buy. First of all, I how many times will
Speaker 1: red Zones show this game? I wonder in the course
Speaker 1: of the entire game. I wonder how many times they'll
Speaker 1: flip to it. I was all over Gorden being a
Speaker 1: clown before the season. I never bought into it. And
Speaker 1: this whole thing where they're like, oh, this was the
Speaker 1: plan to trade all these players and accumulate these draft picks.
Speaker 1: That's a hunk of bullshit too, because that wasn't their plan.
Speaker 1: Their plan was to be competitive. They traded for Jordy Nelson,
Speaker 1: their season win total was eight and a half. And
Speaker 1: then when they started sucking and they made the ridiculous
Speaker 1: decision to trade Khalil mac that's when their planned quickly
Speaker 1: became Oh my god, it's like a slippery hope to hell. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's been our plan all the way. Yeah, we just
Speaker 1: want to accumulate draft picks. Here's the other thing about
Speaker 1: accumulating draft picks. You actually have to have people who
Speaker 1: know how to pick players by the time they By
Speaker 1: the time they get here to Vegas, they are going
Speaker 1: to be a skeleton of crap. Like it's just gonna
Speaker 1: be miserable. Once they get to Vegas. They will not
Speaker 1: have Derek Carr by that time either, Ace, which game
Speaker 1: you want no part of. And that one is actually
Speaker 1: more bettable to me than than Tampa Bay in the
Speaker 1: New York Giants. I mean, that's a game I want
Speaker 1: no parts of. I mean, the Giants won their Super
Speaker 1: Bowl last Monday Night. That that's the only game that
Speaker 1: that matters. I mean, they got Philly in Washington left
Speaker 1: on their schedule, but they're playing for nothing. They won
Speaker 1: Monday night football. That's a moral victory for them. Um.
Speaker 1: And then you got Tampa Bay. There's a team that's
Speaker 1: minus twenty one in turnovers over the last seven weeks.
Speaker 1: Just think about that, minus twenty one in turnovers four
Speaker 1: those last seven games, they've had turned the bowl over
Speaker 1: at four times per game four the seven. You can't
Speaker 1: win football games like that, you can. I mean we
Speaker 1: know just going in if you could foresee who's gonna
Speaker 1: win the turnover battle, you'll cash six out of tend tickets. Um.
Speaker 1: And this team turns it over three or four times
Speaker 1: a game. So I can't bet Tampa Bay at a
Speaker 1: pick them pretty much. And I can't bet the Giants
Speaker 1: either after last week getting their win and more get Finally,
Speaker 1: the last fact last year these two teams played, Tampa
Speaker 1: was minus two and a half. They won by two.
Speaker 1: Landed right there on the number this is a game
Speaker 1: I want nothing to do with. To stay away from me.
Speaker 1: Giants on the short week after beating the Niners in
Speaker 1: the final minute on Monday Night for their second win
Speaker 1: of the year, Tampa Bay. If you see that Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay Redskins box score from last week, Tampa Bay gained
Speaker 1: four hundred and nine nine yards of offense, scored three points.
Speaker 1: We have not seen that in our lifetime. Turnover margin,
Speaker 1: as you point out, Ace minus four, that's all mattered.
Speaker 1: Six two three Redskins Paper Tiger week. They're three or
Speaker 1: four turnovers every week from that team. Skins six three
Speaker 1: win Paper Tiger atop the NFC East by two games.
Speaker 1: Two games Skins. By the way, do you think the
Speaker 1: Skins get there? I'm not so sure. I'm not so sure.
Speaker 1: They got to play the Eagles twice. That ain't good.
Speaker 1: We shall see. Man, what an interesting week because again,
Speaker 1: as you look down this slate, we just we just
Speaker 1: mentioned all the games that were above four points, Green
Speaker 1: Bay Seattle Thursday night three points, Carolina Detroit is four,
Speaker 1: Dallas Atlanta three with extra juice, Cincinnati both the more
Speaker 1: we don't know, Minnesota, Chicago. We talked about two and
Speaker 1: a half Tennessee, Indianapolis one and a half in favor
Speaker 1: of the Colts Houston Washington, Houston by three on the road,
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay and the Giants Giants by one at home,
Speaker 1: on and on and on, and then of course the
Speaker 1: Monday Night or the Rams three and a half by
Speaker 1: favorites there. It's just a man, it is a field
Speaker 1: goal league. It is a game of plink Oh. I
Speaker 1: hope the plinko lands in the slot that you needed
Speaker 1: to this weekend. Good luck with all your bets in
Speaker 1: the NFL. And as always for Ace and Marco and Ed,
Speaker 1: thank you so much, man, appreciate it. Thank you so
Speaker 1: much for listening.