WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2018 NFL MegaPod Week 11 Preview 0:00:03.400 --> 0:00:12.480 Check it down man now down Now. Thursday morning, November 0:00:12.560 --> 0:00:17.120 fift is the Beating the Book podcast Kill Alexander Megapod 0:00:17.239 --> 0:00:21.079 time for week eleven in the NFL. Ace hasn't said 0:00:21.079 --> 0:00:22.560 it yet this year, so I'll go ahead and say it. 0:00:22.680 --> 0:00:25.480 Where has the time gone? How are we at week eleven? Already? 0:00:25.720 --> 0:00:28.319 The show has always brought you by the score x 0:00:28.400 --> 0:00:30.840 dot com th h E s c O r e 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:33.879 x dot com. It's that secret football stock market thing 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:36.320 I've been talking about for years on the show. Again 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:40.120 the best, the number one, the top, Beating the Book 0:00:40.240 --> 0:00:43.120 score extra. At the end of the regular season, we 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:45.960 will have you on the megapod for wild Card week 0:00:46.000 --> 0:00:48.519 to discuss your NFL trading success and of course go 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:51.479 through the wild card games with you. So that is 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:55.120 the entire goal for beating the book listeners. There's a 0:00:55.120 --> 0:00:57.200 bigger five thousand dollar pot, but if you have an 0:00:57.280 --> 0:00:59.520 enter jet, probably not gonna win that. But you can 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:02.560 still in the Beating the Book pool again, that's the 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:05.520 score x dot com. Just enter the promo code GIL. 0:01:05.840 --> 0:01:08.440 Got to do that promo code Gil with two l's. 0:01:08.680 --> 0:01:10.399 That's how you get into the Beating the Book pool. 0:01:10.600 --> 0:01:13.080 And again you win it all. You're on the Megapod 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:16.160 wild Card weekend. I update the stats on my Twitter 0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:17.840 at beating the book from time to time, so check 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:20.080 it out. Give you the top five courtesy of the 0:01:20.080 --> 0:01:22.480 score X. That's the score x dot com defined all 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:25.400 the download links. It is week leven, the one week 0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:29.200 where all the primetime games are the best games, best matchups, 0:01:29.200 --> 0:01:31.360 at least from a fan's perspective. We'll get to all 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:34.240 of those Sunday daytime picks, and of course the final 0:01:34.280 --> 0:01:36.880 two questions as always on the show. The staples from 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:39.640 wager Talk dot Com thirty nine years into business, Marco 0:01:39.680 --> 0:01:43.160 to Angelo Goo Morning Marco today. I am doing fine 0:01:43.200 --> 0:01:46.039 out that the technology of the podcast is working. I 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:49.200 am ready to go feeling good. You know you should 0:01:49.240 --> 0:01:55.040 get your own show because you're you're a wizard at this. Yeah, 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:57.680 technology proving to be hurdles everywhere. Let me just put 0:01:57.720 --> 0:02:00.320 it that way. And all my left lads and Eelman 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:03.320 treating the Kansas City Chiefs like he treated the Seattle 0:02:03.360 --> 0:02:08.320 Seahawks back in still fading the chiefs, ladies and gentlemen. 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:12.000 It's Ace, good morning, Ace, all right, good morning. That's all. 0:02:12.040 --> 0:02:15.200 We may be wrong once for this decade, so Chief 0:02:15.200 --> 0:02:17.800 Fans doesn't look good. I don't think I'll be wrong twice, 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:20.200 but yeah, you're right. It does move so quickly. Can't 0:02:20.200 --> 0:02:23.520 believe we're already been in college basketball, man, and then 0:02:23.560 --> 0:02:27.359 Thanksgiving is next week? Does go too quickly, way too fast. 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:30.000 Thanksgiving show up a little too early for everybody this 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:32.799 year I have. I couldn't believe it's next week. When 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:35.480 my wife said, you know, planning for Thanksgiving, I'm like, 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:37.359 what are you talking about? What do you get already? 0:02:37.440 --> 0:02:39.840 And it's like, already it's next week. I can't believe it. 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:43.440 The twenty second, that's an early Thanksgiving. And by the way, 0:02:43.520 --> 0:02:45.760 let me just say this, we do not do a 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:50.080 megapod on Thanksgiving week, so everybody with the grown I 0:02:50.200 --> 0:02:53.160 get it. Yeah, we could try to get the group 0:02:53.200 --> 0:02:56.120 together on Wednesday, it just doesn't work out Thanksgiving week. 0:02:56.160 --> 0:02:59.440 We've tried it before. People are traveling, so we just 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.519 take Thursday off Thanksgiving. We take the week off of 0:03:02.560 --> 0:03:05.079 the megapod. We will have guessing lines at the beginning 0:03:05.080 --> 0:03:07.880 of the week, but no megapod next week, so we 0:03:07.960 --> 0:03:10.639 apologize in advance for that. We'll be back the following week. 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:14.040 For Week thirteen. That has always been a megapod tradition. 0:03:14.080 --> 0:03:16.680 If you will returning to the show, We Love Them 0:03:16.680 --> 0:03:19.680 back for the first time this season. The creator of 0:03:19.720 --> 0:03:22.480 the Power Rank dot Com. It's our friend Ed Faye. 0:03:22.480 --> 0:03:24.639 Good morning Ed, Good morning Gil. Thanks so much for 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:27.040 having me on. I appreciate it. Ed is in snowy 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:31.880 an arbor, braving the weather conditions. You think Michigan is 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:34.560 getting to the college football playoffs? By the way, I 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:36.960 believe there's a good chance. Last week I checked, I 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:39.839 think it was about fifty fifty. But this Michigan team 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:43.880 is on the rise. Ohio State's not quite the same program, 0:03:43.920 --> 0:03:47.800 so I'm pretty optimistic about their chances. Here's the thing. If, 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:51.080 in fact, the old scenario that everybody's talking about now 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:53.160 I was talking about on the Vicent Show Numbers Game 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:57.120 a few weeks back, if Alabama runs the table but 0:03:57.160 --> 0:04:00.840 then loses to Georgia, Let's say a field goal in 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:05.800 the SEC Championship, should Alabama be in and Michigan out 0:04:06.080 --> 0:04:10.720 ed um No, But obviously I'm biased, so everyone can 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:12.480 make their own judgment about this. But what I have 0:04:12.640 --> 0:04:15.080 them meaning to do is figure out the probability that 0:04:15.160 --> 0:04:18.160 this scenario happens because you need Notre Dame to win 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:21.279 these next two games. You need Michigan beat Ohio State, 0:04:21.440 --> 0:04:23.720 and I mean they're a pretty good chance to beat Northwestern. 0:04:24.080 --> 0:04:26.000 The chance of that scenario happens has got to be 0:04:26.040 --> 0:04:29.560 like five. So it's fun to talk about. Probably not 0:04:29.560 --> 0:04:31.360 gonna happen. At the end of the day, Marco, I 0:04:31.400 --> 0:04:33.360 went around town, as you were even witnessed to me 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:35.760 doing this last year. I went around town before the 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:39.159 playoff was elected, betting people saying Alabama will be in 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:42.440 the final four, just getting a hundred dollar bills from everybody. 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:47.920 It's awesome. There'll be one loss Alabama over Michigan. Absolutely, 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:51.480 they'll be in. Yeah, they're they're Alabama is not left 0:04:51.520 --> 0:04:54.800 off the ticket. You got a sad part. What do 0:04:54.839 --> 0:04:58.480 you do with Georgia. Georgia will be into Georgia, into 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:02.120 Georgia wins the SEC I ran, So you know, then 0:05:02.200 --> 0:05:04.320 Michigan is gonna be the odd man out because if 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.719 Notre Dame runs the table, they're gonna they're in automatically 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:10.680 because of the name. I just you know, they're the schedule. 0:05:10.760 --> 0:05:14.120 Strength doesn't is not going to apply, and Michigan will 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:17.320 get to they will get to feel how Penn State 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:22.360 felt a couple of years ago, Jack, same scenario. This committee, 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:25.840 this committee has has moved conference champs that win a 0:05:25.880 --> 0:05:29.080 conference championship game over idle teams. So why does the 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:31.000 Notre Dame the one left out? They're gonna be sitting 0:05:31.000 --> 0:05:34.920 at three will soon Clemson's in. Michigan jumps Notre Dame 0:05:34.960 --> 0:05:38.120 because they win a game. Georgia jump Notre Dame. Here's 0:05:38.160 --> 0:05:41.119 the answer to your question, ed because their Notre Dame, 0:05:43.080 --> 0:05:46.080 because they're Michigan. That's why they're getting in right now. No, 0:05:46.880 --> 0:05:51.119 college football is not a meritocracy, right, It's just completely 0:05:51.320 --> 0:05:54.839 bullshit and it's that And I'm not trying to be 0:05:54.839 --> 0:05:57.039 flip about it, but Marco saw me do this last 0:05:57.120 --> 0:05:59.960 year with some folks. I was so convinced Alabama we 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:01.919 be in because I know how these people are in 0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:05.400 college football. Right, it's all about the money in the end, 0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:08.160 and it's such utter bullshit in the end who they 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:11.479 put in. And so because it's not a meritocracy, there's 0:06:11.520 --> 0:06:13.880 obviously going to be a school or schools that just 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:17.679 get absolutely shafted. But if it's all about the money, 0:06:17.680 --> 0:06:20.640 that that's in favor of Michigan, because Michigan will bring 0:06:20.680 --> 0:06:23.880 the eyeballs wherever they go in that semifinal game, not 0:06:23.960 --> 0:06:28.520 more than Notre Dame Alabama. The only teams got their 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:32.040 own their own TV station, you know, they get their 0:06:32.040 --> 0:06:35.039 own contract for all of their games with NBC. Notre 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:37.440 Dame's the lock if they if they run the table, 0:06:37.440 --> 0:06:39.880 there's no no way that they let Notre Dame out. 0:06:39.880 --> 0:06:45.080 I would be absolutely shocked. Um, if that scenario happens 0:06:45.680 --> 0:06:49.440 with the George Alabama game, it's gonna be unfortunately, Michigan 0:06:49.480 --> 0:06:52.240 odd man out. It's gonna be the exact same thing 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:55.920 as Penn State was. The same situation. They're gonna win 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:59.880 the conference championship and all of that in and gets 0:07:00.040 --> 0:07:03.000 route in the end because of somebody else being up there. 0:07:03.200 --> 0:07:07.440 And I'll bet you a hundred dollars. Oh yeah, first 0:07:07.440 --> 0:07:10.640 of all, so so I'm happy to do that. You're 0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:12.560 on gil, But but first of all, I mean, I 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:14.360 gotta check what the number is. But there's about a 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:16.679 thirty percent chance, probably a little bit less, that Georgia 0:07:16.680 --> 0:07:19.920 actually pulls that upside off. Yeah, we will revisited. Only 0:07:19.960 --> 0:07:22.640 in that scenario we obviously we got a long way 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:25.120 to go. Yes, sir, that is the biggest topic of 0:07:25.240 --> 0:07:28.240 conversation in ann Arbor. I'm sure it is. I'm sure 0:07:28.240 --> 0:07:31.320 it is. Well before the basketball game last night. We Yeah, 0:07:31.360 --> 0:07:34.360 that's kind of taking up the airspace this morning. I understand. 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:37.120 And it's no disrespect, by the way, to Michigan and 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:39.000 the alumni, because I grew up in d C. For 0:07:39.040 --> 0:07:41.320 whatever reason, when I grew up in d C, and 0:07:41.320 --> 0:07:43.880 maybe it's still the case now, but Michigan is a 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:47.120 huge school for d C high school graduates. So I 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:49.240 have a bunch of friends who went to Michigan, and 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:52.280 let me just say this to a man, they still, 0:07:52.560 --> 0:07:57.560 decades later, love everything Michigan like they hold Michigan above 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:00.560 everything else in their lives, over any pros forwards team. 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:04.160 So I respect Michigan. It's just how college football works. 0:08:04.600 --> 0:08:08.520 We'll see how it happens if in fact that scenario materializes. 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:13.400 Let's talk NFL, gentlemen. This is one unbelievable series of 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:17.440 primetime games beginning and let's do it from reverse Monday night, 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:20.760 not only the best game, the Markee Game of the weekend, 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:24.840 but the markete game of the NFL schedule from maybe 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:27.760 the outset of the NFL schedule. It's the Chiefs and 0:08:27.800 --> 0:08:30.480 the Rams now. The biggest story in the league this week, 0:08:30.520 --> 0:08:34.200 of course, was the fact that this was originally intended 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:36.880 to be played at Estadio a Steca in Mexico City. 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:41.360 The field conditions were such that even the National Football League, 0:08:41.720 --> 0:08:45.719 led by Roger Goodell, who is hell bent on absolutely 0:08:45.800 --> 0:08:49.560 proliferating this sport globally, hell bent on having the three 0:08:49.600 --> 0:08:52.320 games in London and the game in Mexico City for 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:55.120 his international series, they would have done anything not to 0:08:55.160 --> 0:08:58.000 move this game, but even they had to when the 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:01.600 field was such caused by concerts, caused by soccer games, 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:06.280 and weather just unplayable. Players on both teams threatened that 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:09.160 not to play if in fact they kept it as Stadiosteca, 0:09:09.520 --> 0:09:11.640 and so they had no choice. The NFL didn't, and 0:09:11.720 --> 0:09:14.240 the game is now in l A. The number moves 0:09:14.520 --> 0:09:16.600 from two and a half to three and a half 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:18.880 on that move to l A and favor of the 0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:21.760 home standing Rams. No Cooper Cup for the Rams. He's 0:09:21.760 --> 0:09:24.560 out for the season, and you have too high octane 0:09:24.600 --> 0:09:28.080 offenses to even in the Rams case, two very sort 0:09:28.120 --> 0:09:33.559 of beatable defenses suspect defenses. The total therefore informed by 0:09:33.559 --> 0:09:36.679 that six the three and a half. It is the 0:09:36.760 --> 0:09:40.679 highest total in the National Football League since as far 0:09:40.760 --> 0:09:43.679 back as six at least that's as far back as 0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:49.160 a reliable database goes. Uh. For some who have investigated 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:52.520 this passionately sixty three and a half right now at 0:09:52.559 --> 0:09:54.640 sixty three or sixty three and a half, depending on 0:09:54.640 --> 0:09:59.080 where you're shopping. The total did not move once it 0:09:59.160 --> 0:10:02.360 went from Mexico City to Los Angeles. That's somewhat curious. 0:10:02.720 --> 0:10:05.200 We begin, as always with our guests, Mr Fang from 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:07.760 the Power Rank. What you got here, Agil, You got 0:10:07.760 --> 0:10:09.440 to make sure that next time I'm at your house 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:11.480 to build you a statue. Roger Goodell, I know how 0:10:11.520 --> 0:10:13.760 much you love the guys. I'm a big fan. Are 0:10:13.800 --> 0:10:15.720 you always on when I go on a Goodell rant? 0:10:15.760 --> 0:10:17.679 Is that always you that happens to be on? Maybe? 0:10:17.720 --> 0:10:19.680 I don't know. I mean I listened to you otherwise. 0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:22.400 I appreciate what the show. I appreciate. I know you 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:27.599 love the man not um, yeah, you know, I I think. Uh. 0:10:27.760 --> 0:10:29.800 This is obviously the super Bowl of the regular season, 0:10:30.160 --> 0:10:34.360 very exciting game. Um. The thing my number has ramps 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:36.800 by five point two and that's adjusted for now they're 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:39.600 playing in their their home field. UM. Surprised the markets 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:41.960 have only moved to point with that. You know, when 0:10:41.960 --> 0:10:43.679 I do home field, it's about two and a half 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:46.640 points over the last five years. Sorry two and a 0:10:46.679 --> 0:10:49.400 half points, I said that, right, yeah, UM. But the 0:10:49.480 --> 0:10:53.120 thing that really strikes me about this game are the defenses. 0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:54.560 I mean, we know that we need that. We know 0:10:54.640 --> 0:10:56.640 these offenses can score, we know that they can move 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:58.920 the ball, and it's really a story of the defense. 0:10:59.280 --> 0:11:02.760 And when I, UH do my numbers, I have the 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:07.319 RAMS is about a league average UH defense and um, 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:10.439 for Kansas City, that's really not the case. When I 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:12.720 look at I look at defense in two different ways. 0:11:12.720 --> 0:11:15.160 I look at yours for past attempt adjusted for strength 0:11:15.160 --> 0:11:18.200 of schedule, and their twelve in that category, which makes 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:21.040 you think that maybe the Chief's defense is okay. But 0:11:21.080 --> 0:11:23.040 what I've been doing this year, and this is new 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:26.160 for me, is looking at success rate. So success rate 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:29.040 is uh, you know, an offense that succeeds if if 0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:32.280 you get half of the yards on first down, on 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:34.840 second down and all the necessary yards on third and 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:37.080 fourth down. Uh. And then what I do is I 0:11:37.080 --> 0:11:39.000 take that raw success rate and I adjust for strength 0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:41.720 of schedule in Kansas City is thirty feet out of 0:11:41.720 --> 0:11:45.720 thirty two NFL teams on defense by that metric. So 0:11:46.360 --> 0:11:50.040 the I mean, I see here two leade offenses, a 0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:52.640 Rams defense that's about the middle of the league could 0:11:52.640 --> 0:11:55.240 be better. Uh kind of have you gotta have some 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:58.120 faith uh in that unit because because they've been good, 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:00.360 and and then the Kansas City defense that's really going. 0:12:00.440 --> 0:12:02.440 So I really I like the Rams in this game. 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:06.000 I would definitely towards them on the side. And UM 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:08.920 six series a pretty high total. It wasn't didn't that 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.920 Super Bowl between Atlanta and New England get into the sixties? 0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:15.079 Did it? I can't remember offhand. I want to say 0:12:15.080 --> 0:12:17.480 it was like sixty one or sixty two. And whenever 0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:19.320 you see a number like that in the NFL, I 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:21.920 mean you almost always want to lean the under. My 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:25.480 numbers like the under a little bit. But again that's 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:29.000 that's always an effort proposition with with just such explosive offenses. 0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:32.120 I am efforting the Falcons Patriots super Bowl total at 0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:34.120 that time, New England was favored by three that much. 0:12:34.160 --> 0:12:37.160 I remember as far as what the total was the 0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:40.240 total in that game was. I know I had an 0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:43.280 under bed in that and uh saw that blow up 0:12:43.320 --> 0:12:46.880 with the beltdown, Yeah exactly, and plus like you know, 0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:49.160 Tom Brady throws a pick six in that game too, 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:51.800 and I think it would have gone under without that play, right, 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.360 I'm saying, yeah, I'm seeing fifty eight and a half, 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:56.719 but I don't know if that's where it closed. You 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:00.240 know that one and a half was the highest total, uh, 0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:02.720 that we've ever had in the NFL prior to this. 0:13:02.800 --> 0:13:04.760 And I don't remember which game it was, but I 0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:10.199 ms the Rams. I think wasn't in a couple of 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:12.920 years when they had that Greatest Show on Turf team. 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:18.480 What about that um that Packers Falcons playoff game that 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:20.439 same year that the Falcons went to the Super Bowl. 0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:22.400 I remember that one being in the close to the 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:25.920 sixties as well, but not sixty three that I think 0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:29.520 is uh, that's the high water mark, sixty three and 0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:31.760 a half. As we do this on Thursday morning between 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:33.600 the Chiefs and the Rams, I was talking about this 0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:37.280 game with the producer of my Behind the Book video 0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:39.160 series that I do with j rud the Vice president 0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:43.760 and MGM Racing Sports every week Matt Brown is his name, 0:13:43.760 --> 0:13:45.679 and Matt and I were talking about this Chiefs Rams 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:47.720 game and we were saying, Okay, well, you know both 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:51.800 coaches are going to go in with this attitude on offense. 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.400 At first, I think one thought for Sean McVan Andy 0:13:54.400 --> 0:13:56.760 Reid will be, well, look, we want to keep the 0:13:56.800 --> 0:13:59.960 other offense off the field, so let's run the ball. 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:01.880 Let's try to make a concerted effort to run the 0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:05.520 ball with Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley, respectively. But then 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:08.360 the sort of second thought would would probably be Okay, 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:10.520 even if they start that way, they're going to realize 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:13.320 that they can just destroy the opposing defense so much 0:14:13.480 --> 0:14:15.360 that why are they even bothering with that if they 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:17.800 can just matriculate quickly down the field. So I don't 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:20.480 even know if that's a strategy that even is sustainable 0:14:20.640 --> 0:14:22.880 or even is something that will hold any water for 0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:26.640 more than five minutes. It's interesting game to even think about, 0:14:26.720 --> 0:14:28.880 and I have no real feel as to how it's 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.880 going to go. Marco, what do you think? Well, for me, uh, 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:34.520 you know, I agree with the Rams being the side 0:14:34.760 --> 0:14:37.920 in this one. And because I know Kansas City, we're 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.080 getting a little bit of false hope with Kansas City. 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:42.720 People are talking the last you know, four weeks. You know, look, 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:45.040 their defense is playing better all of a sudden. Now 0:14:45.120 --> 0:14:49.440 you know they only gave up ten and fourteen, and 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:51.960 you know the Rams are given up in thirties. They 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:55.440 give up forty five to the Saints. Let's just stop 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:59.000 for a second and look at what Kansas City has 0:14:59.040 --> 0:15:01.760 played and the city in the last four games. They 0:15:01.840 --> 0:15:05.400 played a Cincinnati team the week after they were beat 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:08.400 up by the Steelers physically, and then that last second loss. 0:15:09.040 --> 0:15:12.920 Then they played Denver, who has just you know, shot 0:15:12.960 --> 0:15:16.880 themselves in the foot all year. They played Cleveland in Arizona, 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.720 two of the you know, worst teams in the league. 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:23.280 You know, offensive not a threat. You flip that over 0:15:23.320 --> 0:15:25.080 and you look at the Rams and if you look, like, 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:27.760 just what points they're giving up? Yeah, the Rams are 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.760 given up more points per game. But look at the 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:34.880 rundown of offenses and quarterbacks that they have faced. They 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:39.600 faced Philip Rivers, they faced Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson twice. 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:43.120 They faced Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees. Come on, you 0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:46.200 can't even compare the lineups of what the two defenses 0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:49.000 have faced in this one. I'm gonna go ahead. I'm 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:51.440 gonna take the Rams in this game. I'm also going 0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:53.880 to take the the over. I know it's the squarest 0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:57.480 bet on the board. But guys, we're having a changing 0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:00.520 of the guard, and until Vegas five is with that 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:05.120 new you know high watermark is, I'm gonna go to 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:07.560 the over and I know that. You know the Sharks 0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:10.160 are gonna come in. They're gonna bet the under because 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:12.480 that's what they do, because they don't they just don't 0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:16.520 see teams scoring as many points. But guys, we've seen 0:16:16.560 --> 0:16:19.280 it move on the bottom end. You know, you don't 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:22.280 see thirty seven and thirty eights in the NFL anymore. 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:25.400 You don't see forty ones that often anymore. They're they're 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:28.120 moving the lines up. But yet, you know, when you 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:30.520 get to the top end, there's that ceiling. Where do 0:16:30.600 --> 0:16:32.720 we stop at? I don't think this is high enough. 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:36.800 I I see this game both teams getting into the thirties. Um. 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:40.520 I actually have the Rams getting to forty in this one. 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:43.440 And I was hoping this game was gonna stay in 0:16:43.480 --> 0:16:46.320 Mexico because uh, I would have liked it even more. 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:49.000 I know the field conditions wouldn't have been conducive. But 0:16:49.120 --> 0:16:51.760 I was looking forward to seeing these two teams play 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:56.600 the fourth quarter with both defenses gas from going up 0:16:56.600 --> 0:16:59.280 and down the field, watching each other trying to, you know, 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:02.520 stop each other, and then playing that fourth quarter. Uh, 0:17:02.560 --> 0:17:04.639 you know, with the fatigue factor, guys would just be 0:17:04.720 --> 0:17:07.400 breaking and plays open left and right. But I'm still 0:17:07.440 --> 0:17:09.639 going over the total, and I like the Rams not 0:17:09.680 --> 0:17:12.360 to mention sixty seven or sixty eight yard field goal 0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:15.639 attempts down in the elevation of Mexico City. It should 0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:19.200 be noted that the Rams are practicing in Colorado Springs. 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.760 They were practicing in the elevation of Colorado in preparation 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:25.119 for the game in Mexico City. They decided to hang 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:27.480 out there practice the rest of the week before they 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:30.679 head back to Los Angeles for this one murderers row 0:17:30.720 --> 0:17:33.399 of opposing quarterbacks. Though it's an excellent point from you, Marco, 0:17:33.960 --> 0:17:36.240 the Rams do want to clean up the penalties though, 0:17:36.280 --> 0:17:39.840 that's for sure. Ten penalties last week against the Seahawks 0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:43.080 for a hundred and two yards, many of which were 0:17:43.200 --> 0:17:49.320 just ridiculous, stupid defensive penalties that kept Seahawks drive sustained. 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:51.960 So they can clean that up. That's another sort of 0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:56.040 check in the Rams box. Ace. Hey, you know what's 0:17:56.080 --> 0:17:59.520 really surprising with this matchup that I mean, and here's 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:01.720 the bottom line with these two teams. They're both sitting 0:18:01.760 --> 0:18:04.960 at nine and one. And there's a simple reason why 0:18:05.119 --> 0:18:07.159 Kansas Cities eight and two against the spread and the 0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:09.800 Rams are only four and six against the spread. And 0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:12.400 the reason for that is because coming into the season, 0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:15.399 everyone was well aware that the Rams were going to 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:17.960 be one of the elite teams in the NFL. Um, 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:21.360 you looked at future ons, you looked at season win totals, 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:24.160 and they were in the top three of the NFL. 0:18:24.359 --> 0:18:28.480 And any time that's already established, um, they're gonna put 0:18:28.480 --> 0:18:32.280 out a very difficult line, meaning you're not gonna really 0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:34.800 be able to turn a profit off those top tier 0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:38.280 teams when we go into the season knowing about them, 0:18:38.520 --> 0:18:41.080 and we touch on it on the podcast all the time. 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:44.240 The one team that's been able to do that consistently, 0:18:44.280 --> 0:18:47.040 there's only been one. That's the New England Patriots, where 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:50.639 even though every year going in, you know, the market 0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:55.160 concludes they will be competitive and elite, uh, they're still 0:18:55.200 --> 0:18:59.480 able to outperform the betting market. UM. Usually you can't. 0:18:59.640 --> 0:19:02.200 And the Rams are a perfect example of that. UM 0:19:02.560 --> 0:19:04.879 nine and one straight up, four and six against the spread. 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:07.399 Like I say, the spread becomes a great equalis or 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:10.040 embetting sports, we usually know whether team MAY or Team 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:13.480 B is better. In most cases. Now, Kansas City there 0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:16.639 ain't into for the simple reason nobody saw them coming. 0:19:16.920 --> 0:19:20.520 Look what their season win total was coming into the season, UM, 0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:24.520 and they called most by surprise UM. And I think 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:26.399 that's why you're looking at such a great a t 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:31.000 S record. UM. I think there's there's value here on 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:33.800 the Rams. UM. The fact that they're playing at home 0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:37.399 now and getting almost no respect as far as that 0:19:37.480 --> 0:19:41.199 the line goes for that adjustment from Mexico City to 0:19:41.720 --> 0:19:45.080 l A, that alone, I think gives you some line value. 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:49.680 I don't think they adjusted enough. UM. But I also 0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:52.200 liked the total here. But real quickly I wanted to 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:55.080 add what surprises me? And I wanted to know what 0:19:55.160 --> 0:19:58.520 you guys saw prior to the season. This line for 0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:01.639 this game, and and granted is in Mexico City was 0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:06.200 three Rams minus three UM. And and like I said, 0:20:06.240 --> 0:20:09.439 coming in, everyone no one's surprised that the rams are 0:20:09.480 --> 0:20:12.119 nine in one. But I think a lot of people 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:15.359 are surprised case's nine in one and yet the lines 0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:17.840 pretty much right where it would have been prior to 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:20.919 the season. That to me is a little bit surprising. Um, 0:20:21.040 --> 0:20:23.040 but I want to get to the total real quickly, 0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:26.080 and for me, I think it's it's again if you 0:20:26.119 --> 0:20:28.000 bet the younger, you're gonna be holding your breadth. I 0:20:28.119 --> 0:20:30.800 understand that these are two high profile offenses, and that's 0:20:30.880 --> 0:20:34.400 usually the case. Um, but real quickly. I always say, 0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:37.000 when you've got two great defenses, are two great offenses, 0:20:37.040 --> 0:20:39.639 it usually creates the perfect storm for the opposite to happen. 0:20:40.000 --> 0:20:42.159