Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It is me, Joey Pa joe Pisapia and
Speaker 1: it's week seventeen. Can you believe it? Fantasy championships will
Speaker 1: be won or lost this week, but neither matters here
Speaker 1: because this is just about us making money on football.
Speaker 1: This is about us having fun, and we're still having fun.
Speaker 1: So fantasy might be over if a betting never stops.
Speaker 1: And of course neither of these two guys, because it's
Speaker 1: the morning after Christmas and here we are opening a
Speaker 1: present of a show for you. Sam Hoppin right here,
Speaker 1: fresh off of too many Christmas cookies, and Pat fitz Morris,
Speaker 1: fresh off of, you know, just the entire Christmas season.
Speaker 1: Just the eggnog continues to flow through Pat fitz Morris
Speaker 1: in a very strong way. But regardless, we're here. I've
Speaker 1: got more lasagna to feed people. Because Christmases never end.
Speaker 1: When you're Italian, you just have every cousin that you
Speaker 1: ever had in your entire life come over your house.
Speaker 1: And that's what's happening for the rest of the week.
Speaker 1: But it doesn't matter. We're still here talking football. We
Speaker 1: got a great time for you today, So if you
Speaker 1: haven't already subscribe to the YouTube channel, drop your comments
Speaker 1: below because we're still giving away premium upgrades of betting
Speaker 1: pros want you to win all of those that are
Speaker 1: possibly left here as the season comes to a close.
Speaker 1: What a wacky weekend of football. We had incredible performances
Speaker 1: from Amari Cooper last week, some upsets on those Christmas
Speaker 1: Day games as well. You know, guys, I thought something
Speaker 1: was gonna go sideways. If you look at these games,
Speaker 1: you're like, wow, these are three heavy home favorites. Something's
Speaker 1: gonna go sideways. I thought one. I didn't think two
Speaker 1: were gonna go sideways, and the one that went sideways,
Speaker 1: they didn't go sideways, is the only one that I
Speaker 1: thought was going to So at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: it's a hot mess, but we're gonna sort it out.
Speaker 1: That's what we're gonna do. And let's jump right in
Speaker 1: feed first to some of the games we've got going
Speaker 1: on here today, and again, don't forget to subscribe because
Speaker 1: we've also got the NBA Action here on the program
Speaker 1: as well, which is a great time. Every Wednesday and Friday,
Speaker 1: we've got best NBA bets going on there on Fast
Speaker 1: Break Bets with Matt Mody eleven AM Eastern right here
Speaker 1: on the channel live, so you can ask questions, you
Speaker 1: can get involved with the NBA action. So, gentlemen, let's
Speaker 1: kick things off with the first game another Thursday night.
Speaker 1: Or the New York Jets coming off an incredible performance
Speaker 1: at home when they've got eliminated for the playoffs, going
Speaker 1: against the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland's ten and five, they are
Speaker 1: seven point home favorites, an incredible game for Joe Flacco.
Speaker 1: Thirty six and a half is a consensus number on
Speaker 1: betting pros right now, plus two sixty for the Jets. Upset. Sam,
Speaker 1: Let's start with you on this one here the Cleveland
Speaker 1: Browns a very convincing victory and incredible performance. Joe Flacco
Speaker 1: continues to just throw a three hundred yard game after
Speaker 1: three hundred yard game. So any feelings about this line
Speaker 1: and the early value and could this one possibly even
Speaker 1: continue to grow as the week drags on.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am about forty minutes outside of Cleveland for
Speaker 2: the holidays, and let me tell you it is buzzin'
Speaker 2: here with with how good this offense looks. I mean,
Speaker 2: this offense looks probably the best it has in the
Speaker 2: last two years. It's I know. I mentioned last week
Speaker 2: that def Flacco isn't really playing as well as the
Speaker 2: results have shown, and I think that's still the case
Speaker 2: to a degree, but Kevin Stefanski is dialing up some
Speaker 2: incredible play calls using play action at a slightly higher
Speaker 2: rate with Joe Flacco under center. They just had their
Speaker 2: third positive EPA performance on the year this past week,
Speaker 2: and even in the event that Flacco does turn it over,
Speaker 2: this defense is still good enough to hold opposing offenses down,
Speaker 2: so it doesn't really cost them that much. Seven is
Speaker 2: a lot of points, though, against this Jets defense that
Speaker 2: continues to play well despite the second half blunder they
Speaker 2: had against Washington this past week. So I don't have
Speaker 2: a lean on the side for this game right now.
Speaker 2: I think I would lean Cleveland. I believe it's about
Speaker 2: minus seven right now. I made it minus six for Cleveland,
Speaker 2: but again, not confident enough to want to back.
Speaker 1: The Jets, understandably so, and boy, you got to be
Speaker 1: loving that Cleveland to win the AFC that you had there,
Speaker 1: because that one from thirty to one to twenty to
Speaker 1: one over the last couple weeks, So Sam's loving that investment.
Speaker 1: FITZI a performance from the Jets and Breeze all that
Speaker 1: I don't think anybody really saw coming necessarily, and that
Speaker 1: throws a wrinkle into this just slightly. But this one
Speaker 1: is in Cleveland, so I'm kind of where Sam is,
Speaker 1: which is it feels about right your thoughts on this
Speaker 1: one here as Cleveland continues to put together good performance
Speaker 1: after good performance lately.
Speaker 3: Well, it's funny, Joe, when you talked about things going
Speaker 3: sideways for a couple of the home favorites at the
Speaker 3: top of the show, I bet you weren't even talking
Speaker 3: about the Jets. And I took them last weekend and
Speaker 3: was counting my money about an hour into that game
Speaker 3: and things started to get away from them. So this
Speaker 3: does seem like a lot of points. But the Jets
Speaker 3: have been really bad on the road this year, and
Speaker 3: they've been especially bad as big road dogs. They're one
Speaker 3: in five against the spread on the road, zero and
Speaker 3: three against the spread on the road when underdogs by
Speaker 3: seven or more points. So they have played down to
Speaker 3: expectations in some of these games where they been big
Speaker 3: road dogs. But this is a really tough matchup for
Speaker 3: Joe Flacco. I mean, the Jets have been tough on
Speaker 3: opposing passing games. You have to tip your hat to
Speaker 3: him for making this Cleveland passing game go. But he
Speaker 3: also has five interceptions in his last two games, and
Speaker 3: that's what scares me about possibly taking the Browns here.
Speaker 3: I don't really want to bet the Browns. I'm not
Speaker 3: betting the Jets on the road here, so you can
Speaker 3: interest me in the under though. Like I mean, the
Speaker 3: Browns have an excellent defense, the Jets have a very
Speaker 3: good defense, and like I could see this one turning
Speaker 3: into a total rock fight. So I'm inclined to bet
Speaker 3: the under here more so than either side.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the next one here, Detroit
Speaker 1: at Dallas. Dallas again dropping another big game on the
Speaker 1: road as Dallas is wont to do. The Detroit Lions
Speaker 1: have wrapped up the North. They are Kings of the
Speaker 1: North for the first time in a very long time.
Speaker 1: They are six point underdogs though going into Dallas, which
Speaker 1: is where Dallas does their best work, so this is understandable.
Speaker 1: Fifty three and a half is the number here on
Speaker 1: betting pros plus two twenty four. The Lions now, Pat,
Speaker 1: I mean, I imagine you know it's week seventeen. I
Speaker 1: don't think you can start sitting guys necessarily here if
Speaker 1: you're Dan Campbell, I think guys are gonna get out
Speaker 1: there and continue to work. And Jared Goff does play
Speaker 1: good and controlled environments. We know this. I'm on the
Speaker 1: Detroit side of this game, and I actually kind of
Speaker 1: think that plus two twenty the money line is the
Speaker 1: most intriguing part. I think Dallas is reeling a little bit.
Speaker 1: I know they've been brilliant at home, but you know what,
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions right now, at least the six. To me,
Speaker 1: that's a good temptation. I want to go there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, first, Blatch, this does seem like it's too many points, Joe, and.
Speaker 4: Like the reason.
Speaker 3: The only thing that gives me pause, and you said
Speaker 3: it is how good Dallas has been at home seven
Speaker 3: and zero straight up, six and one against the spread
Speaker 3: this year for the Cowboys when they're at home. So
Speaker 3: I'm not sure if I'm gonna pull the trigger on
Speaker 3: the Lions or not. Like it's it's really close, but
Speaker 3: I like, if I'm going to bet this, that's who
Speaker 3: I'm going to bet.
Speaker 4: So I agree with you like that is where the
Speaker 4: lean is, and I've.
Speaker 3: Already bet the under like such a tall number that
Speaker 3: you really need both teams to go up and down
Speaker 3: the field on this one to get an over. And
Speaker 3: the Cowboys ranked sixth in defensive DVOA and the Lions
Speaker 3: ranked thirteenth, So these are two pretty good defenses and
Speaker 3: not a case where you're getting a gross mismatch where
Speaker 3: a couple of really good offenses picking on bad defenses.
Speaker 4: The defenses here.
Speaker 3: Are legits, so I don't think we're likely to get
Speaker 3: a point total in the upper fifties here.
Speaker 1: Sam Pott makes a great case for the under in
Speaker 1: this game with the high total of fifty three and
Speaker 1: a half.
Speaker 2: Do you concur Yeah, I mean I think that's the side. Again,
Speaker 2: with the total of this big, you'd need everything to
Speaker 2: go right. You can't have those long drives that in
Speaker 2: in a field goal or a red zone turnover, things
Speaker 2: like that. Those will absolutely kill the chance of this
Speaker 2: going over. But I'm with both of you. I think
Speaker 2: the Lions are clearly the side here. Last four games
Speaker 2: Dallas has played Seattle, Philadelphia, Buffalo in Miami, so four
Speaker 2: pretty good offenses. But they are struggling on defense to
Speaker 2: hold these offenses. Over the last four weeks, they are
Speaker 2: thirty second in early down EPA per play and early
Speaker 2: down success rate, and Detroit still is one of the
Speaker 2: better offenses. They're playing with one of the best offensive
Speaker 2: coordinators in Ben Johnson. So I think Detroit has a
Speaker 2: chance to take this win in Dallas. I mean, there's
Speaker 2: no way that Detroit is sitting anyone over the next
Speaker 2: two weeks, so they still have a chance to the
Speaker 2: number one seed with everyone at eleven and four at
Speaker 2: the top of the NFC. So I really like Detroit
Speaker 2: in this spot and think they could come away with
Speaker 2: the win.
Speaker 1: How crazy would that be if the Lions were not
Speaker 1: only just the Kings of the North, but the number
Speaker 1: one seed. I talked to a buddy of mine who
Speaker 1: has been a long time suffering Lions fan, and he
Speaker 1: was so excited Yesterdong Christmas, which is so funny because
Speaker 1: he was so miserable on thanks Giving. He was miserable
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. I know you two were not. You guys
Speaker 1: were very happy with that day. All right, let's get
Speaker 1: to the next one. Much to my chagrin, the Newingland
Speaker 1: Patriots won again last week, jerks. All right, let's get
Speaker 1: to this game that they've got coming up in Buffalo.
Speaker 1: Buffalo has trounced them these last few times. Around twelve
Speaker 1: points is a lot, though, Sam, forty one is the
Speaker 1: number plus five hundred four New England to win this game.
Speaker 1: I know New England found a way to squeak out
Speaker 1: of victory thanks to Sean Payton over in Denver, But
Speaker 1: what are your take on this one? I know twelve
Speaker 1: is a large number. Buffalo should have smashed the Chargers
Speaker 1: last week. Instead, they kind of just squeaked by. I
Speaker 1: don't know, maybe the road travel, something about that, the holidays,
Speaker 1: all that crunch, But this one's at home. Is twelve
Speaker 1: too much? Or is it just right for you? Sam?
Speaker 2: Joe? I have been on the Patriots each of the
Speaker 2: last two weeks, and I have won those each of
Speaker 2: the last week, so I guess pushed against the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: but I will not be on the Patriots for a
Speaker 2: third time. But I'm not on the Bills either. I
Speaker 2: think since Joe Brady took over, the Bills have been
Speaker 2: much more run heavy. They are wanting to run the
Speaker 2: ball as much as they can. They're sort of I
Speaker 2: don't know if they're hiding Josh Allen, but it doesn't
Speaker 2: seem like he trusts him that much. And the way
Speaker 2: to beat the Patriots is through the air. Their run
Speaker 2: defense continues to be exceptional, and I think if Buffalo
Speaker 2: runs as much as they want to and have over
Speaker 2: the past couple of weeks, that they're going to struggle
Speaker 2: to move the ball. James Cook has been great, especially
Speaker 2: from a fantasy perspective, but you know, he hasn't been
Speaker 2: the most elite rusher. He's been great in the passing game.
Speaker 2: But I think honestly that the best play here might
Speaker 2: be like parlaying the under with the Patriots, because if
Speaker 2: the Bills lean into the run, I don't think they
Speaker 2: have as much success, and that keeps the total a
Speaker 2: little bit lower as well.
Speaker 1: That was my thinking as well. As you have seen
Speaker 1: this shift here to Jack. I don't know if it's
Speaker 1: hiding Josh Allen so much as maybe it's trying to
Speaker 1: balance the offense for once and trying not to ask
Speaker 1: Josh Allen to do everything all the time and make
Speaker 1: every single play, because I think that's asking a lot
Speaker 1: of any quarterback, no matter how talented, but to Sam's point,
Speaker 1: it is that rush defense of the Patriots, that one
Speaker 1: thing that does seem to be the only thing going
Speaker 1: for the Patriots this year. So that being said, is
Speaker 1: this another underfitsy for you?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not petting either the side or the total
Speaker 3: on this one. And like, I don't have the numbers
Speaker 3: in front of me, Joe, but I would love to
Speaker 3: see what the underdog is this year. In games where
Speaker 3: the underdog is catching double digit points and the total
Speaker 3: on a game is relatively low, like forty two points
Speaker 3: or less, it seems like the underdog in those matchups
Speaker 3: has been doing really well this year.
Speaker 4: So that's it.
Speaker 3: Like you see a total this low in a double
Speaker 3: digit spread, and I do not want to bet the favorite,
Speaker 3: so I just, yeah, I can't get behind the bells.
Speaker 3: And as you said, like the one thing the Patriots
Speaker 3: do Joe really well has stop the run. And with
Speaker 3: Joe Brady and the Bills leading so hard on the
Speaker 3: running game, like I don't know how that's gonna work out,
Speaker 3: but yeah, and Joe condolences on that victory for the Patriots,
Speaker 3: and like that probably is going to cost them the
Speaker 3: quarterback they so desperately need in the draft. But you know,
Speaker 3: nice to see them show their pride.
Speaker 1: I guess in Denver U pride cometh before the fall,
Speaker 1: my friend, it was miserable. Look, I can only hope
Speaker 1: that there's gonna be more trading and things going on.
Speaker 1: There's also two weeks for other teams to lose two,
Speaker 1: so I can only assume these next two games the
Speaker 1: Patriots can lose to the Bills. I'm hoping, let's go Buffalo.
Speaker 1: The Baltimore Ravens twelve and three are gonna host the
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins eleven and four, who finally beat a big
Speaker 1: time opponent. That's great and Baltimore Ravens shout out to them. Look,
Speaker 1: last week, I was on my high horse. You know,
Speaker 1: I thought the fort Nits were unbeatable. I thought they
Speaker 1: were gonna smash. I took the five and a half,
Speaker 1: and boyle boy, was I wrong. Purdy laid an absolute egg.
Speaker 1: Interceptions galore, four of them. Now two of them, maybe
Speaker 1: we gets air question all. We talked about this before
Speaker 1: the show. But still there was two that he got
Speaker 1: away with two that could have been interceptions. So I'll
Speaker 1: take that four or give them a three and a half,
Speaker 1: whatever it is. But regardless get Baltimore credit. Lamar and
Speaker 1: company played a great game. The defense played very well.
Speaker 1: So here you go. Ravens twelve and three, Miami eleven
Speaker 1: and four. Ravens are just three point favorites. This is
Speaker 1: a really interesting line. I thought they might get a
Speaker 1: little bit more maybe the hook or possibly even more
Speaker 1: Fitsy after that performance last night, But this morning, that's
Speaker 1: all your gang. Forty seven is the number Miami plus
Speaker 1: one thirty five, so fits This is a huge AFC
Speaker 1: game here. That's basically going to tell you how the
Speaker 1: next two weeks go for both these teams. Do you
Speaker 1: think that Miami is up to the task to go
Speaker 1: into Baltimore and win this football game? Or is this
Speaker 1: another spot for the Ravens to assert their dominance and
Speaker 1: not let their guard down, which is something the Ravens
Speaker 1: seem to do in some other games, Like they get
Speaker 1: up for some games and other games they look more human.
Speaker 1: Which Ravens club do we see this week?
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Ravens were clearly up for that game against
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers, and I can't imagine they have
Speaker 3: a letdown game in a game of this magnitude and
Speaker 3: coming home. But at the same time, I think we
Speaker 3: finally got what we wanted to see from the Dolphins,
Speaker 3: and that's a win against a quality opponents. You know,
Speaker 3: like every time we wanted to crown them, they would
Speaker 3: play some strong team like the Bills or whoever, and
Speaker 3: they would lose and we'd have to question whether the
Speaker 3: Dolphins belonged in the elite tier of the NFL. So
Speaker 3: now I think they've showed that they do belong. Another
Speaker 3: case where I'm not really interested in the side, Joe,
Speaker 3: but you can talk me into the under here, because
Speaker 3: both of these defenses again too good for the total
Speaker 3: to be this high. The Ravens are number two in
Speaker 3: defensive DVOA, and I think people realize what a good
Speaker 3: defense this is. Although maybe they're going to be without
Speaker 3: Kyle Hamilton, who injured his new on Sunday night. That
Speaker 3: was kind of a bummer for the Ravens. But I'm
Speaker 3: not sure the public has a really good grasp on
Speaker 3: how good this Miami defense has been over the last
Speaker 3: two months. The only teams to score more than twenty
Speaker 3: one points against the Dolphins over their last eight games
Speaker 3: were the Titans, oddly enough, but so I think this
Speaker 3: total is just too tall. I think the under is
Speaker 3: the best bet in this game, and there's really no
Speaker 3: value on either side in my opinion.
Speaker 1: All right, your thoughts on Baltimore Miami and by the way,
Speaker 1: Sam too, Lamar Jackson's now gone ahead of everybody for
Speaker 1: MVP is minus one seventy on the board, Christian McCaffrey
Speaker 1: a plus four fifty, and where's Brock Purdy. He's all
Speaker 1: the way plus thirteen hundred. Now, all it took was
Speaker 1: a couple of picks. Maybe that's all it took. Your
Speaker 1: thoughts here on Ravens Dolphins.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Ravens. I still can't get a full grasp
Speaker 2: on like they is scoring well, like they've scored thirty
Speaker 2: plus points in some of their last nine games, but
Speaker 2: it just doesn't it looks like a challenge at certain points.
Speaker 2: And I understand Lamar is the MVP, and I think
Speaker 2: that's mostly based off of vibes and like who else
Speaker 2: are you gonna give it to? And he had to
Speaker 2: win in prime time against this great forty nine ers defense. Again,
Speaker 2: not trying to take anything away from Lamar, because I
Speaker 2: think he has been fantastic this year, but we're giving
Speaker 2: a lot of credit to this Baltimore Ravens defense that just,
Speaker 2: you know, not a couple of weeks ago got sort
Speaker 2: of gashed by this the Rams for thirty one points.
Speaker 2: So they're just sort of like all over the place
Speaker 2: for me. So I originally was going to lean Miami
Speaker 2: in this game because to your point, I think their
Speaker 2: defense is still underrated. What they've been able to do
Speaker 2: with Jalen Ramsey and even with the loss of Jalen
Speaker 2: Phillips has been incredibly impressive. Vic Vangieau is calling a
Speaker 2: great defense there. So I don't have a leen on
Speaker 2: this game right now.
Speaker 1: I'll say this, I'm pretty sure we get the forty
Speaker 1: nine er game. We're all gonna agree the fort Niners
Speaker 1: are going to win if Baltimore has another hiccup here
Speaker 1: this Christian McCaffrey a plus four fifty for MVP. That's
Speaker 1: the bet of the week, that's the better of the week.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how you don't do that
Speaker 1: because he is the MVP. We're trying to give it
Speaker 1: to anybody here. But if you think about this year,
Speaker 1: who's been the most valuable asset in the National Football League?
Speaker 1: I don't think there's any doubt that at this juncture
Speaker 1: in the season, it's McCaffrey. No quarterback has really stepped
Speaker 1: up consistently. They've all had moments, but everybody's kind of
Speaker 1: drifted backwards. At the end of the day. I think
Speaker 1: it's McCaffrey right now. I know we don't like to
Speaker 1: give I know it's Peterson and we got to go
Speaker 1: back to like Sean Alexander for God's sakes. But I
Speaker 1: don't know, Sam, you look like you have feelings about
Speaker 1: this as I'm saying, yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Mean, we could do a whole nother podcast on this.
Speaker 2: But the reactionary nature of this, the awards market for
Speaker 2: the MVP specifically, I mean, at the end of the day,
Speaker 2: these voters, I think are going to go back and
Speaker 2: look at the full landscape and product of their season
Speaker 2: and not just react to the most recent Monday night
Speaker 2: football game. And hell yeah turned out so again, if
Speaker 2: there was any year that a running back or someone
Speaker 2: like Christian McCaffrey was going to win it, certainly this
Speaker 2: is the year. But I do think that players like
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson, I mean, if the Dolphins win this game,
Speaker 2: to us probably going to be the MVP favorite after
Speaker 2: the after the game yeah, but you know.
Speaker 1: What, he ate the MVP either, And I think when
Speaker 1: you look totality of everything, I don't think that's gonna
Speaker 1: be I don't think Look, Rock Party was on by
Speaker 1: a thread and then this game happened, and this is
Speaker 1: I don't know if you can recover from this one
Speaker 1: not in this race. I really don't think that. Pat,
Speaker 1: I don't know what your thoughts are here. But to
Speaker 1: Sam's point, like we could just juggle back and forth,
Speaker 1: but the one guy every single week is getting done
Speaker 1: who is putting up magical stats as Christian McCaffrey. You
Speaker 1: got twenty something touchdowns. What are we doing here?
Speaker 4: It's funny.
Speaker 3: At Christmas a Christmas Day gathering yesterday, my cousin's fiance
Speaker 3: has Christian McCaffrey at plus thirty eight. He has a
Speaker 3: bet on Christian McCaffrey plus thirty eight hundred, and he
Speaker 3: like laid out the possibilities, like, well, the forty nine
Speaker 3: ers would probably have to lay an egg in this
Speaker 3: game against the Ravens and Purty is a really bad game.
Speaker 4: Then Lamar has to lose at Miami.
Speaker 3: And you know, McCaffrey like bounces back with some massive
Speaker 3: game against Washington, which could very easily happen.
Speaker 4: I could pree it, Like, yeah, I don't. I don't
Speaker 4: hate those odds on McCaffrey right now.
Speaker 3: We know it's traditionally been a quarterbacks award, but like
Speaker 3: this is setting up for those rare years where a
Speaker 3: running back could sneak through Pat.
Speaker 1: There's been one quarterback pillar to post that's really bit
Speaker 1: it this year. All right, we spent a little time
Speaker 1: on that. Let's let's fly through these games here. Vegas Indianapolis,
Speaker 1: Indianapolis three point favorites at home. Vegas huge upset, Sam.
Speaker 1: This number is forty four and a half plus one
Speaker 1: thirty five on the Vegas side. Look, the Colts have
Speaker 1: been an enigma all year in terms of betting. But
Speaker 1: you got to give credit to Antonio Pearson, the Raiders man.
Speaker 1: He has had this team from minute one of taking
Speaker 1: over that job, prepared to play and ready to play.
Speaker 1: That makes it very dangerous. Are they dangerous in this one?
Speaker 2: I think they are. I mean, I think I was
Speaker 2: actually surprised that the market wasn't more in favor of
Speaker 2: Las Vegas after their win against Kansas City. But I
Speaker 2: think there's two things. I mean, the people sort of
Speaker 2: realized that the win was fluky. They scored two defensive touchdowns,
Speaker 2: barely had over two hundred yards of offense, and we
Speaker 2: know that this Chief's offense is not what it used
Speaker 2: to be, so shutting them down is not the great
Speaker 2: feat that it once was. That said Antonio Pierce wants
Speaker 2: to establish the hell out of the run. I mean,
Speaker 2: if they get a lead, they are going to run
Speaker 2: as much as possible. Fortunately, that is not a strong
Speaker 2: spot for Indianapolis. It helps that the Raiders are fourth
Speaker 2: in EPA per rush over the last four weeks. They're
Speaker 2: doing it without Josh Jacobs as well, who seems like
Speaker 2: he might be back this next week. It sounded like
Speaker 2: he was close to playing in this game against Kansas
Speaker 2: City as well well. So I like the Raiders in
Speaker 2: this spot to pull off the upset even on a
Speaker 2: short week.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, O'Connell is not impressive. I'm sorry. I watched
Speaker 1: that game, and you know he is not the Goods
Speaker 1: And I didn't think it was the Goods when you
Speaker 1: were in college either. So whatever that pivot is, it
Speaker 1: makes you ponder like if Garoppolo was healthy enough to
Speaker 1: really play, like maybe this could be a really dangerous,
Speaker 1: A very dangerous team potentially fits. I don't have a
Speaker 1: lot of faith in O'Connell, but there's something about Antonio Pierce.
Speaker 1: It just gets this defense fired up. To get this
Speaker 1: team very focused, they find ways to win and be competitive.
Speaker 1: And Indy is, as I said before, a bit of
Speaker 1: an enigma. I know for you especially, you've mentioned it
Speaker 1: several times this year. What do you think of this
Speaker 1: game here with the early kind of here you go
Speaker 1: choose your own adventure that Vegas is laying out for us.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Raiders have been really plucky under Antonio Pierce,
Speaker 3: but I am not the Shane stike In disciple that
Speaker 3: Sam is. But I do think there's a little bit
Speaker 3: of value on the calls here. And Sam mentioned like
Speaker 3: he's surprised this line is not pointing more in the
Speaker 3: Raiders direction. But think of what this line probably would
Speaker 3: have been before last weekend's results, with the Chiefs getting
Speaker 3: upset by the Raiders and the Colts laying this egg,
Speaker 3: probably playing their worst game of the season against the Falcons,
Speaker 3: like I think had Week sixteen never happened, I think
Speaker 3: you've probably seeing Colts minus five, minus five and a
Speaker 3: half in this one, so you know you you talked
Speaker 3: about it, Joe, like the Chiefs offense or maybe it
Speaker 3: was you, Sam, Sorry, the Chiefs offense really struggling. They
Speaker 3: gift wrapped the Raiders a couple of presents with those
Speaker 3: back to back defensive scores on consecutive plays. I believe
Speaker 3: that was the Raiders just don't have much of a
Speaker 3: passing game. And well their explosion against the Chargers two
Speaker 3: weeks ago, notwithstanding, but I.
Speaker 1: Think like sixty dropped two, but that was the Chargers.
Speaker 3: You know, And like, I think we could see the
Speaker 3: Colts come out breathing fire after playing such a poor
Speaker 3: game against the Falcons last week. Like think, I think
Speaker 3: they're going to come back hard in this one. And
Speaker 3: I am leaning towards betting the Colts here. Have not
Speaker 3: done it yet, but I think I am going to
Speaker 3: bet the Coults.
Speaker 1: Speaking of the Falcons, they are going to travel to
Speaker 1: Chicago to take on the Bears. They are three point
Speaker 1: underdogs in Chicago. Thirty eight is the number plus one
Speaker 1: thirty for the Falcons fits. Again, confidence is a tricky
Speaker 1: word this time of the year in certain teams. Do
Speaker 1: you have confidence that Chicago can handle their business? And
Speaker 1: Atlanta will continue their road woes. Or do you think
Speaker 1: Atlanta somehow finds a way to pull out a victory here.
Speaker 4: Nope. I bet the Bears. They've won three of the
Speaker 4: last four.
Speaker 3: They've held opponents to an average of fourteen point eight
Speaker 3: points per game over that stretch, and the Chicago defense
Speaker 3: is just playing really well lately, and Justin Fields is
Speaker 3: generating offense. The Falcons need this game, but are we
Speaker 3: going to trust Arthur Smith in a must win game.
Speaker 4: I don't know about you, guys, but I am not.
Speaker 3: And last week's Massy Peabody rankings suggested that the Bears
Speaker 3: are about two points better than the Falcons on a
Speaker 3: neutral field. This is not going to be a new
Speaker 3: neutral field. It's a dome team from the Deep South
Speaker 3: coming up to Chicago to play an outdoor game, and
Speaker 3: temperatures that are probably going to be in the thirties
Speaker 3: next Sunday.
Speaker 4: So I like the Bears here. I'll lay the field goal.
Speaker 1: All right, Sam, your thoughts on this contest here between
Speaker 1: the Bears and the Falcons? Any value here on this line?
Speaker 2: I don't see anything on the sides, but I think
Speaker 2: the under is in play here. The Atlanta defense is
Speaker 2: legit and they have been all year. And for how
Speaker 2: good the Bears defense has played recently, their offense has
Speaker 2: continued to struggle. They rank thirty second in passing success
Speaker 2: rate over the last four weeks. And again the free
Speaker 2: agency additions that Atlanta brought in on defense, and Mcleus
Speaker 2: Campbell is playing very well for I think thirty eight
Speaker 2: years old. So I think both of these teams, again
Speaker 2: with strong defenses, less than ideal offenses. Give me down
Speaker 2: right here.
Speaker 1: Falcons are a quarterback and a co away. That's all
Speaker 1: they are. Quarterback of the coach get those two things
Speaker 1: in the off season. I think they get right in
Speaker 1: the things I know, I know, but you never know.
Speaker 1: I mean, crazy things happen sometimes coaches show up with quarterbacks.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 1: Sometimes we've seen that happen when guys leave together. All right, Carolina,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville's the next one here. Carolina is two and thirteen,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville's eight and seven. SAM minus six and a half
Speaker 1: is the number for this one. The Jags are favorite
Speaker 1: at home, as one would imagine Carolina being as poor
Speaker 1: as they are. Thirty seven and a half is the
Speaker 1: total for this game, plus two to thirty for Carolina
Speaker 1: when you're looking at this one too. I know Jacksonville
Speaker 1: has had its struggles, but is this one where they
Speaker 1: can handle their business and cover the six and a half?
Speaker 4: Sam?
Speaker 2: I think so? I think I want to buy the
Speaker 2: Jags here. Carolina just had its best offensive output, but
Speaker 2: it was against the Packers and Jill Berry's defense that
Speaker 2: had previously allowed back to back NFC Player of the
Speaker 2: Week awards. So I think this is a get right
Speaker 2: game for Jacksonville. I'm not sure the status of Trevor
Speaker 2: Lawrence at this point. I think he injured his throwing arm.
Speaker 2: But even if it is CJ. Brethlord, I think Jacksonville
Speaker 2: they wanted to run the ball a lot and have struggled,
Speaker 2: but I think Carolina gives them an opportunity to run
Speaker 2: the ball as effectively as they want. So I think,
Speaker 2: regardless of quarterback, I want the Jags here.
Speaker 1: All right, Pat, your thoughts on this game here? The
Speaker 1: Jags obviously a lot of injuries, a lot of issues
Speaker 1: the last few weeks. Is this the get right game
Speaker 1: for them?
Speaker 3: I'm not sure it is, Joe. Four straight losses and
Speaker 3: they have been stomped by the Ravens and the Buccaneers
Speaker 3: the last two weeks, and like, I don't want to
Speaker 3: bet the Panthers either, I'm just going to pass on
Speaker 3: this one.
Speaker 1: All right, fair enough, Let's get to the next one
Speaker 1: then Tampa at excuse me, Tampa hosting New Orleans. The
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers are eight and seven, Saints are seven
Speaker 1: and eight. The Bucks, as they should be, three point
Speaker 1: favorites at home. Forty two is the consensus number plus
Speaker 1: one thirty five here on the New Orleans Saints money
Speaker 1: line fits. Tampa Bay just kind of feels like, ironically,
Speaker 1: at this juncture in the season, the best team in
Speaker 1: this division, and this is the chance for them to
Speaker 1: really go out there improve it. Will they do that
Speaker 1: this weekend?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I mean the Buccaneers have really found their footing. They've
Speaker 3: won four straight, as you mentioned, and over the last
Speaker 3: two weeks they've beaten the Packers and the Jaguars, two
Speaker 3: respectable teams, by a combined thirty two points. Meanwhile, the
Speaker 3: Saints have lost for their last six, and the two
Speaker 3: wins came against the Panthers and the Giants. And back
Speaker 3: in Week four, the Buccaneers handled the Saints really easily
Speaker 3: twenty six to nine, and that was before the Bucks
Speaker 3: did find their footing. So I think they're going to
Speaker 3: take care of business and I'm happy to lay the points.
Speaker 3: The only thing that gives me slight pause is that
Speaker 3: the Saints have that extra three days of rest in
Speaker 3: prep time after playing the Thursday night game last week.
Speaker 1: Sam the Bucks were convincing thirty to twelve on Christmas
Speaker 1: Eve here against the Jags. I mean, it just kind
Speaker 1: of feels like things are going their way. They found
Speaker 1: their quarterback in Baker Mayfield. That reclamation project has worked
Speaker 1: for them the Saints. As Fitz said, it does have
Speaker 1: some extra time, but does that even matter with the
Speaker 1: Saints team at this point.
Speaker 2: I don't think it does. But I do like the
Speaker 2: over in this game. I think both offenses, the Bucks
Speaker 2: offense again, Baker Mayfield playing really great football right now.
Speaker 2: It's cool to see him sort of rejuvenate his career there.
Speaker 2: It sounds like they want to keep him past this
Speaker 2: year as well. And the Saints' offense is great at
Speaker 2: padding stats at the end of games and when they're
Speaker 2: down big, they throw the balls on and can get
Speaker 2: back into these games. And Tampa Bayed secondary is one
Speaker 2: that is going to allow you to be able to
Speaker 2: do that, So I think over forty two here is
Speaker 2: my leaning.
Speaker 1: Right now, All right, next game on the slate, the
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles at home will take on the Arizona Cardinals.
Speaker 1: Philly's favored by nine and a half on this one.
Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised it's not a little larger. I'm worried
Speaker 1: this one is going to grow as the week rolls on.
Speaker 1: Forty seven and a half is the total plus four
Speaker 1: fifty on the Arizona money line. Sam, where did you
Speaker 1: have this game just out of curiosity in your projections,
Speaker 1: because it feels like this one would have been at
Speaker 1: double digits but it hasn't quite hit there yet.
Speaker 2: Yeah. So this one was at minus twelve in favor
Speaker 2: of the Eagles before the game yesterday and now is
Speaker 2: down to minus nine and a half. And the game
Speaker 2: between the Eagles and the Giants, it felt like different
Speaker 2: parts of the Eagles team clicked at different times, Like
Speaker 2: the defense played well for a little bit and then
Speaker 2: the offense played well, but it just never all happened
Speaker 2: at once. That said, the Cardinals are not even with
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray, They're just not that great. I think Philadelphia
Speaker 2: is going to be able to take care of business here.
Speaker 2: I'm not laying either side in just this could be
Speaker 2: a just a weird game.
Speaker 1: I kind of understand that, all right. The Rams are
Speaker 1: going to travel to New York next week for Week seventeen.
Speaker 1: They are going to be six and a half point
Speaker 1: favorite when they do to face the Giants forty two
Speaker 1: with the consensus number plus two thirty five on the
Speaker 1: Giants money line, the Giants are five and ten the
Speaker 1: Rams are eight and seven. It feels like two teams,
Speaker 1: you know that have obviously gone in a different direction
Speaker 1: this season. So Sam, that being said, you've seen the
Speaker 1: early value in this line.
Speaker 2: Yeah, give me the Rams. They are one of the
Speaker 2: hottest teams on offense right now. Matthew Stafford is playing
Speaker 2: quarterback is as well as any other in the league
Speaker 2: right now. They'll get the extra rest having played on
Speaker 2: Thursday night, and the Giants are on a short week
Speaker 2: as well, having played on Monday afternoons. So I think
Speaker 2: Stafford's going to be able to take care of business
Speaker 2: against the Giants again. Kyron Williams playing extremely well, so
Speaker 2: I don't see how the Giants are able to stop
Speaker 2: this Rams offense.
Speaker 1: The two greatest waiver wire pickups of twenty twenty three,
Speaker 1: Kyron Williams and Pookin Takua on the same team. Patty,
Speaker 1: It's been quite a season for the Rams here and
Speaker 1: they are getting hot at the right time. So do
Speaker 1: you think fits that you have that same confidence that
Speaker 1: Sam does here that they can go on the road
Speaker 1: here with the six and a half and take care
Speaker 1: of business against the Giants?
Speaker 3: Not quite as much. If I were going to bet
Speaker 3: this one, that is who I would bet. But it's
Speaker 3: just a little too tall for me to do that,
Speaker 3: especially after the Giants were able to and we talked
Speaker 3: about the Eagles, like, the Giants just hung around in
Speaker 3: that game and refused to be extinguished and wound up
Speaker 3: getting the covers a double digit underdog. So like, I
Speaker 3: kind of think they can keep this one close. I
Speaker 3: just don't want to touch it. I mean, I think
Speaker 3: the offense better.
Speaker 1: Than the Eagles offense right now, because I think it
Speaker 1: is yes, yeah, okay.
Speaker 4: No question.
Speaker 3: The Eagles passing game has struggled for a couple of
Speaker 3: months now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a funny thing to ask that question, but like,
Speaker 1: I think it needed to be rhetorically asked, because I
Speaker 1: think all three of us agree that's the case. So
Speaker 1: if they kind of, you know, just kind of backdoored
Speaker 1: last week that we're only talking about six and a
Speaker 1: half here, that feels like a long day at the
Speaker 1: office maybe for the New York Giants, but I think
Speaker 1: we're all pretty confident with the Rams have done recently.
Speaker 1: What about Houston and Tennessee situation here? Always a tough
Speaker 1: one here Houston at home. We don't know the CJ.
Speaker 1: Stroud status minus three and a half their favorite against
Speaker 1: Tennessee forty two and a half is the number plus
Speaker 1: one fifty five on the money line? Fits Is this
Speaker 1: a stay away until you have clarity when it comes
Speaker 1: to the Houston Texans QB situation this week?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 3: I mean, if anything, Joe, I think, like maybe you
Speaker 3: want to get this now before we get word on
Speaker 3: C Like I have to imagine Stroud is back this week,
Speaker 3: but they.
Speaker 1: Have said it's a very it's one of the more
Speaker 1: serious quarterback concussions, is what I read that they've had
Speaker 1: all year. But to your point too, it's been a
Speaker 1: few weeks now.
Speaker 4: So yeah, very tricky situation, that's the thing.
Speaker 3: But I guess even if Stroud is back, like, I
Speaker 3: don't have the same warm and fuzzy feeling about the
Speaker 3: Texans that I had a month ago.
Speaker 4: You know what I mean?
Speaker 3: So maybe just laying off this one is the right move,
Speaker 3: because if we don't get Stroud, then all of a
Speaker 3: sudden three and a half points does not look like
Speaker 3: a bargain by any means.
Speaker 1: Are you where fits as Sam on this one where
Speaker 1: you want to take it now before you get clarity
Speaker 1: about this laming changing if Stroud does play in this
Speaker 1: one getting a little tighter, I don't.
Speaker 2: Want to touch it all because I don't even think
Speaker 2: we know who's going to be playing quarterback on the
Speaker 2: other side of the ball for three points. And while
Speaker 2: I don't think Tannehill to Levis changes the line that much,
Speaker 2: the variability in Levis's play is much wider than it
Speaker 2: is for Ryan Tannehill. So I think again, if Levis plays,
Speaker 2: then I'd want to again try to maybe target some
Speaker 2: all spreads for the Titans in favor of Tennessee. But
Speaker 2: I'm not touching this game until we know more about
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks, all.
Speaker 1: Right, San fran Washington Boy. If ever, there was a
Speaker 1: perfect opponent for a team that just came off a
Speaker 1: bad loss on a prime time holiday game, it's the
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders. That's what you want to see if you're
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. I mean, the Commander's just got
Speaker 1: their buck kicked by the Jets. I can't imagine what
Speaker 1: kind of pain they're going to be involved in. What
Speaker 1: do you think the team total is going to be
Speaker 1: for this game? Here? Sam? Forty nine ers a third
Speaker 1: even a half points favorites forty eight and a half
Speaker 1: is the number plus six hundred for the Washington Commander upset.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I know Washington sometimes shows up in weird games they
Speaker 1: have this year at certain junctures, just as the Eagles.
Speaker 1: But that being said, San fran is a lot to
Speaker 1: handle for Washington. They struggled with Breeze Hall. I can't
Speaker 1: imagine all the overs on Christian McCaffrey. Is that just
Speaker 1: the approach for this one? Sam?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think Kyle Shanahan's just going to
Speaker 2: get all of his frustration out on against his former team.
Speaker 2: I kind of want to know who's going to be
Speaker 2: starting for Washington in this game. I think if if
Speaker 2: they do go with Jacoby Bressett. I think there could
Speaker 2: be a little bit of value on the Commanders because
Speaker 2: he has not played terribly. I mean, I think he
Speaker 2: raises the floor for Washington a little bit. And again
Speaker 2: we've seen San Francisco's defense against some competent teams can
Speaker 2: can have some success and potentially keep it close. So
Speaker 2: I yeah, just look at Christian McCaffrey overs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Christian McAffrey overs. Do you think if Jacoby Brissett
Speaker 1: was the quarterback of the Jets or the Falcons all
Speaker 1: year they'd be playoff teams? Because I do with those defenses,
Speaker 1: and that just goes to you know, they sat on
Speaker 1: Brissett and they are a four win team at the
Speaker 1: trade deadline, and I didn't understand why that wasn't the
Speaker 1: piece that everybody was going for. Why maybe the Commanders
Speaker 1: didn't want to give him up. It's just so strange
Speaker 1: to me because I think those teams would have really
Speaker 1: benefited from Brissett, who is a good leader, a likable
Speaker 1: guy in the clubhouse. Everybody seems to like him in
Speaker 1: the locker room. And again another Stefanski quarterback last year
Speaker 1: that somehow found a way to win games and keep
Speaker 1: them relevant for longer than maybe the Brown should have been.
Speaker 1: Stefanski's a great coach. I don't think he gets just
Speaker 1: the thing.
Speaker 2: If Washington plays Pressett all year, they're probably a playoff team.
Speaker 2: Are They're at least in contentient for a wild car.
Speaker 1: So maybe at this point maybe it's not impossible. Fits
Speaker 1: your thoughts on this potential ugly situation here for the
Speaker 1: Commanders and forty nine.
Speaker 4: Ers, I think we do see Brissett this week.
Speaker 3: I don't think they can run on Sam Howell, who
Speaker 3: over his last three games, I'm not sure Sam Howell
Speaker 3: has completed even forty percent of his passes the last
Speaker 3: three games, he has been.
Speaker 4: A hot mess.
Speaker 3: And I don't like touching games where the road favorite
Speaker 3: is favored by like two touchdowns. It's just way too
Speaker 3: many points. As Sam said, if it is Brissett, maybe
Speaker 3: there's a little bit of value on the Commanders here,
Speaker 3: but like I just think, like, I'm not sure what's
Speaker 3: going on with brock party. I don't think we're going
Speaker 3: to get two terrible games in a row. And heaven knows,
Speaker 3: this forty nine Ers offense could just shred this paper
Speaker 3: mache Commander's defense to ribbons.
Speaker 4: But yeah, I just don't want to bet.
Speaker 3: I'm not laying the points here, and I'm not really
Speaker 3: anxious to bet the Commanders either. But by the way, Joe,
Speaker 3: like the Commanders really weren't thumped by the Jets. It
Speaker 3: took a last second field goal basically, and then they
Speaker 3: hung pretty.
Speaker 1: Tough the week. The first part of that game was
Speaker 1: just wacky, all right, Oh they were getting crushed. They
Speaker 1: were like that. There was just so much energy in
Speaker 1: that building too, which just it was so bizarre, like
Speaker 1: Roberts fall there, just poor guy.
Speaker 3: But like Washington is not laying down this season, Like
Speaker 3: they played the Rams top two weeks ago and they
Speaker 3: came back against the Jets when they could have just
Speaker 3: wave the white flag in that game. So yeah, I
Speaker 3: think a lot of people think the forty nine ers
Speaker 3: are going to be really steamed after losing this big
Speaker 3: game and everything, and they're just going to crush this
Speaker 3: overmatched opponent.
Speaker 4: But like, this is just too many points.
Speaker 1: I agree, it's to It's a lot of points. So
Speaker 1: it does make me scared. That's why I keep saying,
Speaker 1: give me the all purpose Christian McCaffrey yards and two touchdowns.
Speaker 1: What can I get at the two touchdowns for Christian McCaffrey.
Speaker 1: I'll take that those twos I want.
Speaker 3: I'm really excited about going against him in a championship
Speaker 3: game in fantasy next week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, get it that way.
Speaker 1: At least you're still alive. All my teams are dead now,
Speaker 1: all right, Let's go to Pittsburgh and Seattle. Seas eight
Speaker 1: and seven, And so the Pittsburgh Steelers talk about looking good.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers coming out strong with some energy over the
Speaker 1: Christmas holiday. They are going to go to Seattle. They're
Speaker 1: gonna be three and a half point underdogs there. Over
Speaker 1: on the consensus betting pros line, forty one and a
Speaker 1: half is the total for this game, plus one fifty
Speaker 1: for the Steelers. So Mason Rudolph has come to town.
Speaker 1: FITZI your thoughts on this Steeler Seattle contest for Week seventeen.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, the Steelers have been one of the most
Speaker 3: unpredictable teams in the league all season, and I feel
Speaker 3: very vindicated that I finally was on the right side
Speaker 3: of them this past week.
Speaker 4: Taking the money line against the Bengals.
Speaker 3: I just felt like they weren't going to lose that game.
Speaker 3: I don't know, I just had this feeling. But now
Speaker 3: we get a game between two of the most unpredictable
Speaker 3: teams in the league. So I'm not touching this one, no, thanks.
Speaker 3: Like Steelers versus Seahawks, two teams you never know what
Speaker 3: you're gonna get from game to game, like wide wide
Speaker 3: range of outcomes. For this one, I'm not betting it.
Speaker 1: It does feel like four outcome game. It's interesting too,
Speaker 1: because you look at Mason Rudolph, he had a two
Speaker 1: touchdown game. You know, the big play to Pickens early
Speaker 1: on certainly kind of set the tone of this one.
Speaker 1: But it's funny because it's as many two touchdown games
Speaker 1: as Kenny Picketts had the entire season, which is also
Speaker 1: I think sad and depressing. So four outcome games certainly
Speaker 1: exists here. But Sam, does the data point to one
Speaker 1: of these outcomes be more likely for you?
Speaker 2: No? Because to Fits's point, these are two teams that
Speaker 2: I can't get a rena on them. I mean, they're
Speaker 2: just all over the place and putting up stinkers against
Speaker 2: bad teams, putting out great performances against good teams. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think for me, this means to bet the under,
Speaker 2: because again, you don't really know what you're going to
Speaker 2: get out of these offenses. The Pittsburgh defense, I think
Speaker 2: still has some juice, and the Seahawks offense, to what
Speaker 2: I was saying, has struggled at points. The Seahawks defense
Speaker 2: has played pretty decently the last couple of weeks as well,
Speaker 2: held again what we think is an underwhelming Philadelphia offense
Speaker 2: to just twenty point. So I like to underhear I
Speaker 2: think these are two teams that just can't both figure
Speaker 2: it out. At the same time.
Speaker 1: Speaking of not being able to figure it out, I
Speaker 1: give you the Kansas City Chiefs. We are now nine
Speaker 1: and six. They're going to be under that win total,
Speaker 1: I believe for the year now right, I'm pretty sure
Speaker 1: or at least push so nine and six for them
Speaker 1: taking on Cincinnati, who maybe the Cinderella has lost their
Speaker 1: slipper here. Kansas City's seven and a half point favorites
Speaker 1: at home forty five and a half is the number
Speaker 1: plus two eighty five on the Cincinnati side of the
Speaker 1: money line. Sam, I mean, we keep sitting here every
Speaker 1: week and we think, Okay, this can't last. It can't last,
Speaker 1: it can't last. But this offense just cannot seem to work,
Speaker 1: and there were times where it was starting to look good.
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey had some big plays in that first half
Speaker 1: of that game, you know, and then the Pacheco injury
Speaker 1: happened and he came out. I don't know, It's just
Speaker 1: Kansas City might just be having one of those years,
Speaker 1: and it happens, It's happened. I mean even in the
Speaker 1: Patriot dynasty. I remember one year that that happened to
Speaker 1: It was a year after they they lost the Super
Speaker 1: Bowl and they just could not get back on track.
Speaker 1: And it kind of feels like that's where Kansas City is.
Speaker 1: No matter what they do, they can't get out of
Speaker 1: their own way. But what do you think you're seven
Speaker 1: and a half. Is that too many points for the
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs to be favored in a game, even
Speaker 1: at home?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean this weirdest this year is so weird. Man.
Speaker 2: This Cincinnati defense is terrible, but the Chiefs offense just
Speaker 2: lacks explosiveness and consistency. But man, this Chiefs defense is legit.
Speaker 2: I mean they've a lot of success rate over forty
Speaker 2: percent just once in the last six weeks to Jordan
Speaker 2: Love have my Dad. I don't like either side here.
Speaker 2: I think the under again forty five points is a lot.
Speaker 2: I think the Chiefs will be able to hold down
Speaker 2: this Bengals offense, especially if they don't have Jamar Chase again.
Speaker 2: And the Chiefs offense, to me, I want to look
Speaker 2: at the Travis Kelcey receiving props because the Bengals have
Speaker 2: been terrible against tight ends all season. But man, I
Speaker 2: can't trust this Chief's offense right now. It's crazy because
Speaker 2: if this chief Chiefs offense looks like even the worst
Speaker 2: version of itself from the last five years, this team
Speaker 2: is just a gauntlet because of how well their defense
Speaker 2: is playing. But that's not the case, So give me
Speaker 2: the under in this game.
Speaker 1: Chase is probably unlikely for this We heard he was
Speaker 1: gonna be as multiple weeks, so I don't anticipate having Chase.
Speaker 1: Is that just the difference maker in the seven and
Speaker 1: a half here?
Speaker 4: Not necessarily?
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think the Chiefs should be favored
Speaker 3: by more than a touchdown against anyone other than the
Speaker 3: dregs of the league right now. The Bengals are not
Speaker 3: the dregs of the league by any stretch of the imagination. Like, yeah,
Speaker 3: they've got problems on defense, and I think we saw
Speaker 3: that Jake Browning is not going to be, you know,
Speaker 3: someone's quarterback of the future.
Speaker 4: But I still like the.
Speaker 3: Bengals and the points here because we have seen this
Speaker 3: chief passing game struggled to such an extent, like since
Speaker 3: coming out of there by Patrick Mahomes is averaging six
Speaker 3: point four yards per pass attempt. That is Mac Jones.
Speaker 3: That is a mac Jones number. Like, this passing game
Speaker 3: is not working right now. So I'm inclined to take
Speaker 3: the Bengals, But I do agree with Sam the best
Speaker 3: bet in this game is the under far and away.
Speaker 1: Okay, the under far and away? All right? What about
Speaker 1: Denver hosting the Chargers? Denver's five and a half point
Speaker 1: favorites at home against the Chargers thirty eight and a
Speaker 1: half is number for this one plus two hundred fits.
Speaker 1: Is there any value on the Chargers here with considering
Speaker 1: the way Denver's looking in the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 3: Oh, maybe this game is just such a weird thing
Speaker 3: to say, but I just right, like, are the Chargers
Speaker 3: the team that got stuffed into a locker by the
Speaker 3: Raiders two weeks ago?
Speaker 4: Or are they the team that.
Speaker 3: Was surprisingly Plucky in Week sixteen, Like I don't know,
Speaker 3: and I don't know where the Broncos are.
Speaker 4: I just don't want to touch this game at all.
Speaker 1: These are two tough teams to invest in.
Speaker 2: Sam.
Speaker 1: That being said, is that a walk away for you?
Speaker 2: I think I slightly lean the Chargers here if this
Speaker 2: crosses six, because again to what you guys are saying,
Speaker 2: the Chargers played pretty decent against Buffalo, and Denver played
Speaker 2: about as poor as you could against New England. I
Speaker 2: know they made the game look close at the end there,
Speaker 2: but they had a negative two point one percent pass
Speaker 2: right over expectation against a Patriots defense that we know
Speaker 2: is strong against the run. Denver wants to run the ball,
Speaker 2: but they're not really good at it. They're negative point
Speaker 2: nine to eight EP per rush is sixteenth in the
Speaker 2: league this year. So I think if Denver runs the ball,
Speaker 2: you know, keeps this total lower, Chargers have enough to
Speaker 2: keep it close. So if this crosses six, then give
Speaker 2: me the Chargers, all.
Speaker 1: Right, last one here, your Green Bay Packers, gentlemen are
Speaker 1: going to travel to Minnesota. Minnesota, another heartbreaking loss for them.
Speaker 1: It's nothing but heartbreak for the seven and eight Vikings.
Speaker 1: They are two point home favorite. Sam Forty five and
Speaker 1: a half is the total on this game, plus one
Speaker 1: oh five on the green Bay Packers side. So the
Speaker 1: question is it's practically a pick, and what side do
Speaker 1: you want to be picking.
Speaker 2: I mean, I want to be picking the pack Hers
Speaker 2: because how much, he said. But the biggest concern here
Speaker 2: is the injuries on offense on both sides. It looks
Speaker 2: like Minnesota could be without both Jordan Addison and TJ. Hockinson.
Speaker 2: Green Bay is also dealing with injuries on offense. There
Speaker 2: might be without Christian Watson and Jayden Reid missed the
Speaker 2: game this past week. Jordan Love has been okay against
Speaker 2: the Blitz this year, which Brian Flores loves to do.
Speaker 2: He's ninth in PFF passing grade against the Blitz. I
Speaker 2: made this Minnesota by two, So I'm running the line
Speaker 2: and don't see any value right now?
Speaker 1: All right, FITZI any value in this practical pick him
Speaker 1: for the Monday Night contest?
Speaker 4: No, I don't think so. And part of the reason why, like.
Speaker 1: I Mars Sunday Night contest no Monday this week because
Speaker 1: of college football, pardon me.
Speaker 3: So my inclination would probably be to take the Vikings
Speaker 3: just because of how badly the Packers defense has been playing.
Speaker 3: But then again, Nick Mullins is such a wild card.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a man who truly does not
Speaker 3: have a conscience when it comes to throwing down field.
Speaker 3: Like he he threw four interceptions in that game this
Speaker 3: past weekend. He probably could have thrown eight interceptions in
Speaker 3: that game. Like I don't know how many turnover worthy
Speaker 3: plays he was great at as having by PFF. I
Speaker 3: can't wait to see what that number is because I
Speaker 3: guarantee you it's higher than four. But that makes me
Speaker 3: not want to bet either side. But I kind of
Speaker 3: like the over here despite the injuries on offense. Sam
Speaker 3: was talking about, Yes, Jordan Addison's hurt, but I think
Speaker 3: kJ Osborne can step in and torch this Packers defense
Speaker 3: just as well as Jordan Addison probably, And like with
Speaker 3: the Packers, I don't think Love has really missed a
Speaker 3: beat missing his wide receiver like he just spreads it
Speaker 3: around no matter what. So if it's not Christian Watson
Speaker 3: and Jayden Reied, it's gonna be Romeo Dobbs, Dontavian Wis,
Speaker 3: Malik Eith, whoever he needs to get it to Tucker Kraft,
Speaker 3: so give me the over here.
Speaker 4: I'm not interested in either side.
Speaker 1: There you go, and make sure you're interested, obviously in
Speaker 1: continuing to follow along here with all this line movement.
Speaker 1: Make sure that you download the Betting Pros app, that
Speaker 1: you are checking out the game notifications. You can stay
Speaker 1: on top with all the line alerts so you know
Speaker 1: exactly where the movement is happening with these games. And
Speaker 1: remember if you haven't already downloaded the app now because
Speaker 1: you get three free days of premium on iOS. Great
Speaker 1: weekend to do it. You've got all the college football
Speaker 1: bowl stuff happening, the college playoffs, NFL Action. Great time
Speaker 1: to utilize the tools of Betting Pros. And don't forget
Speaker 1: if you're watching here on the YouTube, subscribe drop the
Speaker 1: comments below and you just might win a one year
Speaker 1: free premium upgrade to the best betting tools on the planet.
Speaker 1: Speaking of the best betting tools on the planet, I
Speaker 1: love these two guys, I kid, I love you, Sam Hoppin,
Speaker 1: Papitz Morris. Great stuff as always, gentlemen, enjoy the rest
Speaker 1: of your week. That'll do it for us. But the
Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Sam and fits.
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids, Happy
Speaker 1: New Year.
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