WEBVTT - Free Picks for EVERY Week 17 NFL Game (Ep. 414) 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:03.280 Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.320 --> 0:00:06.200 your bets. It is me, Joey Pa joe Pisapia and 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:09.399 it's week seventeen. Can you believe it? Fantasy championships will 0:00:09.400 --> 0:00:13.880 be won or lost this week, but neither matters here 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.840 because this is just about us making money on football. 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:20.520 This is about us having fun, and we're still having fun. 0:00:20.600 --> 0:00:23.320 So fantasy might be over if a betting never stops. 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:25.720 And of course neither of these two guys, because it's 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:27.920 the morning after Christmas and here we are opening a 0:00:27.960 --> 0:00:30.840 present of a show for you. Sam Hoppin right here, 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:34.360 fresh off of too many Christmas cookies, and Pat fitz Morris, 0:00:34.640 --> 0:00:38.600 fresh off of, you know, just the entire Christmas season. 0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:42.320 Just the eggnog continues to flow through Pat fitz Morris 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:45.400 in a very strong way. But regardless, we're here. I've 0:00:45.400 --> 0:00:48.760 got more lasagna to feed people. Because Christmases never end. 0:00:48.760 --> 0:00:51.320 When you're Italian, you just have every cousin that you 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:53.560 ever had in your entire life come over your house. 0:00:53.800 --> 0:00:55.640 And that's what's happening for the rest of the week. 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:57.760 But it doesn't matter. We're still here talking football. We 0:00:57.840 --> 0:00:59.520 got a great time for you today, So if you 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:02.920 haven't already subscribe to the YouTube channel, drop your comments 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:05.720 below because we're still giving away premium upgrades of betting 0:01:05.720 --> 0:01:08.200 pros want you to win all of those that are 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:10.800 possibly left here as the season comes to a close. 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:13.600 What a wacky weekend of football. We had incredible performances 0:01:13.640 --> 0:01:17.520 from Amari Cooper last week, some upsets on those Christmas 0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:20.920 Day games as well. You know, guys, I thought something 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:22.839 was gonna go sideways. If you look at these games, 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:25.320 you're like, wow, these are three heavy home favorites. Something's 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:27.840 gonna go sideways. I thought one. I didn't think two 0:01:27.840 --> 0:01:30.280 were gonna go sideways, and the one that went sideways, 0:01:30.319 --> 0:01:32.360 they didn't go sideways, is the only one that I 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:34.280 thought was going to So at the end of the day, 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:36.080 it's a hot mess, but we're gonna sort it out. 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:37.720 That's what we're gonna do. And let's jump right in 0:01:38.040 --> 0:01:39.720 feed first to some of the games we've got going 0:01:39.760 --> 0:01:42.280 on here today, and again, don't forget to subscribe because 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:45.160 we've also got the NBA Action here on the program 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:48.600 as well, which is a great time. Every Wednesday and Friday, 0:01:48.720 --> 0:01:51.320 we've got best NBA bets going on there on Fast 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:54.320 Break Bets with Matt Mody eleven AM Eastern right here 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:56.320 on the channel live, so you can ask questions, you 0:01:56.320 --> 0:01:59.280 can get involved with the NBA action. So, gentlemen, let's 0:01:59.360 --> 0:02:03.160 kick things off with the first game another Thursday night. 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:06.640 Or the New York Jets coming off an incredible performance 0:02:06.640 --> 0:02:09.399 at home when they've got eliminated for the playoffs, going 0:02:09.400 --> 0:02:12.600 against the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland's ten and five, they are 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:16.200 seven point home favorites, an incredible game for Joe Flacco. 0:02:16.280 --> 0:02:18.000 Thirty six and a half is a consensus number on 0:02:18.040 --> 0:02:21.320 betting pros right now, plus two sixty for the Jets. Upset. Sam, 0:02:21.360 --> 0:02:23.200 Let's start with you on this one here the Cleveland 0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:27.280 Browns a very convincing victory and incredible performance. Joe Flacco 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:29.840 continues to just throw a three hundred yard game after 0:02:29.840 --> 0:02:32.760 three hundred yard game. So any feelings about this line 0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:35.600 and the early value and could this one possibly even 0:02:35.639 --> 0:02:38.240 continue to grow as the week drags on. 0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:42.640 Yeah, I am about forty minutes outside of Cleveland for 0:02:42.680 --> 0:02:44.720 the holidays, and let me tell you it is buzzin' 0:02:44.760 --> 0:02:47.680 here with with how good this offense looks. I mean, 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:50.800 this offense looks probably the best it has in the 0:02:50.880 --> 0:02:54.520 last two years. It's I know. I mentioned last week 0:02:54.560 --> 0:02:57.480 that def Flacco isn't really playing as well as the 0:02:58.040 --> 0:03:00.400 results have shown, and I think that's still the case 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:03.560 to a degree, but Kevin Stefanski is dialing up some 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:06.880 incredible play calls using play action at a slightly higher 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:10.120 rate with Joe Flacco under center. They just had their 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:14.400 third positive EPA performance on the year this past week, 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:17.680 and even in the event that Flacco does turn it over, 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:22.280 this defense is still good enough to hold opposing offenses down, 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:25.760 so it doesn't really cost them that much. Seven is 0:03:26.440 --> 0:03:29.280 a lot of points, though, against this Jets defense that 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:34.480 continues to play well despite the second half blunder they 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:38.640 had against Washington this past week. So I don't have 0:03:38.680 --> 0:03:41.720 a lean on the side for this game right now. 0:03:41.800 --> 0:03:45.240 I think I would lean Cleveland. I believe it's about 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:49.200 minus seven right now. I made it minus six for Cleveland, 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:52.240 but again, not confident enough to want to back. 0:03:52.040 --> 0:03:55.920 The Jets, understandably so, and boy, you got to be 0:03:55.960 --> 0:03:58.160 loving that Cleveland to win the AFC that you had there, 0:03:58.200 --> 0:03:59.800 because that one from thirty to one to twenty to 0:03:59.840 --> 0:04:02.600 one over the last couple weeks, So Sam's loving that investment. 0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:06.800 FITZI a performance from the Jets and Breeze all that 0:04:06.840 --> 0:04:10.040 I don't think anybody really saw coming necessarily, and that 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:12.200 throws a wrinkle into this just slightly. But this one 0:04:12.240 --> 0:04:14.040 is in Cleveland, so I'm kind of where Sam is, 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:16.919 which is it feels about right your thoughts on this 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:20.039 one here as Cleveland continues to put together good performance 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:21.159 after good performance lately. 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:24.279 Well, it's funny, Joe, when you talked about things going 0:04:24.320 --> 0:04:26.720 sideways for a couple of the home favorites at the 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:28.359 top of the show, I bet you weren't even talking 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:33.080 about the Jets. And I took them last weekend and 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:36.200 was counting my money about an hour into that game 0:04:36.400 --> 0:04:40.960 and things started to get away from them. So this 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:43.919 does seem like a lot of points. But the Jets 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:45.760 have been really bad on the road this year, and 0:04:45.800 --> 0:04:48.920 they've been especially bad as big road dogs. They're one 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:51.160 in five against the spread on the road, zero and 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:53.800 three against the spread on the road when underdogs by 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:57.640 seven or more points. So they have played down to 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:00.440 expectations in some of these games where they been big 0:05:00.520 --> 0:05:03.760 road dogs. But this is a really tough matchup for 0:05:03.839 --> 0:05:07.000 Joe Flacco. I mean, the Jets have been tough on 0:05:07.080 --> 0:05:10.520 opposing passing games. You have to tip your hat to 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:13.720 him for making this Cleveland passing game go. But he 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:17.000 also has five interceptions in his last two games, and 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:21.440 that's what scares me about possibly taking the Browns here. 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:23.600 I don't really want to bet the Browns. I'm not 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:27.160 betting the Jets on the road here, so you can 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:29.640 interest me in the under though. Like I mean, the 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:32.839 Browns have an excellent defense, the Jets have a very 0:05:32.880 --> 0:05:35.960 good defense, and like I could see this one turning 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:39.120 into a total rock fight. So I'm inclined to bet 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:42.280 the under here more so than either side. 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:44.200 All right, let's go to the next one here, Detroit 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:48.080 at Dallas. Dallas again dropping another big game on the 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:50.680 road as Dallas is wont to do. The Detroit Lions 0:05:50.680 --> 0:05:52.880 have wrapped up the North. They are Kings of the 0:05:52.920 --> 0:05:55.360 North for the first time in a very long time. 0:05:55.600 --> 0:05:59.200 They are six point underdogs though going into Dallas, which 0:05:59.200 --> 0:06:02.159 is where Dallas does their best work, so this is understandable. 0:06:02.520 --> 0:06:05.680 Fifty three and a half is the number here on 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:09.560 betting pros plus two twenty four. The Lions now, Pat, 0:06:09.600 --> 0:06:12.040 I mean, I imagine you know it's week seventeen. I 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:14.320 don't think you can start sitting guys necessarily here if 0:06:14.320 --> 0:06:16.120 you're Dan Campbell, I think guys are gonna get out 0:06:16.120 --> 0:06:18.320 there and continue to work. And Jared Goff does play 0:06:18.360 --> 0:06:21.320 good and controlled environments. We know this. I'm on the 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:23.520 Detroit side of this game, and I actually kind of 0:06:23.520 --> 0:06:25.200 think that plus two twenty the money line is the 0:06:25.200 --> 0:06:27.840 most intriguing part. I think Dallas is reeling a little bit. 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:30.240 I know they've been brilliant at home, but you know what, 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:32.800 Detroit Lions right now, at least the six. To me, 0:06:32.880 --> 0:06:34.800 that's a good temptation. I want to go there. 0:06:35.680 --> 0:06:39.240 Yeah, first, Blatch, this does seem like it's too many points, Joe, and. 0:06:39.760 --> 0:06:40.440 Like the reason. 0:06:40.920 --> 0:06:42.920 The only thing that gives me pause, and you said 0:06:42.960 --> 0:06:45.719 it is how good Dallas has been at home seven 0:06:45.760 --> 0:06:48.240 and zero straight up, six and one against the spread 0:06:48.440 --> 0:06:50.479 this year for the Cowboys when they're at home. So 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:55.200 I'm not sure if I'm gonna pull the trigger on 0:06:55.320 --> 0:06:57.839 the Lions or not. Like it's it's really close, but 0:06:57.880 --> 0:06:59.480 I like, if I'm going to bet this, that's who 0:06:59.480 --> 0:06:59.919 I'm going to bet. 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:02.080 So I agree with you like that is where the 0:07:02.160 --> 0:07:03.839 lean is, and I've. 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:06.720 Already bet the under like such a tall number that 0:07:06.760 --> 0:07:08.760 you really need both teams to go up and down 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:11.960 the field on this one to get an over. And 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:15.120 the Cowboys ranked sixth in defensive DVOA and the Lions 0:07:15.160 --> 0:07:19.480 ranked thirteenth, So these are two pretty good defenses and 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:22.280 not a case where you're getting a gross mismatch where 0:07:22.400 --> 0:07:25.240 a couple of really good offenses picking on bad defenses. 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:26.560 The defenses here. 0:07:26.400 --> 0:07:29.280 Are legits, so I don't think we're likely to get 0:07:29.720 --> 0:07:31.880 a point total in the upper fifties here. 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:35.040 Sam Pott makes a great case for the under in 0:07:35.040 --> 0:07:36.680 this game with the high total of fifty three and 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:36.960 a half. 0:07:37.000 --> 0:07:40.880 Do you concur Yeah, I mean I think that's the side. Again, 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:44.840 with the total of this big, you'd need everything to 0:07:45.280 --> 0:07:48.280 go right. You can't have those long drives that in 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:51.040 in a field goal or a red zone turnover, things 0:07:51.080 --> 0:07:54.760 like that. Those will absolutely kill the chance of this 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:56.960 going over. But I'm with both of you. I think 0:07:57.000 --> 0:08:00.960 the Lions are clearly the side here. Last four games 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:04.880 Dallas has played Seattle, Philadelphia, Buffalo in Miami, so four 0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:09.520 pretty good offenses. But they are struggling on defense to 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:12.200 hold these offenses. Over the last four weeks, they are 0:08:12.280 --> 0:08:15.760 thirty second in early down EPA per play and early 0:08:15.800 --> 0:08:19.800 down success rate, and Detroit still is one of the 0:08:19.800 --> 0:08:22.720 better offenses. They're playing with one of the best offensive 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:26.440 coordinators in Ben Johnson. So I think Detroit has a 0:08:26.520 --> 0:08:31.200 chance to take this win in Dallas. I mean, there's 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:34.440 no way that Detroit is sitting anyone over the next 0:08:34.480 --> 0:08:35.840 two weeks, so they still have a chance to the 0:08:35.920 --> 0:08:39.240 number one seed with everyone at eleven and four at 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:43.480 the top of the NFC. So I really like Detroit 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:46.280 in this spot and think they could come away with 0:08:46.320 --> 0:08:46.600 the win. 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:49.160 How crazy would that be if the Lions were not 0:08:49.200 --> 0:08:51.040 only just the Kings of the North, but the number 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.920 one seed. I talked to a buddy of mine who 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:56.240 has been a long time suffering Lions fan, and he 0:08:56.320 --> 0:08:58.760 was so excited Yesterdong Christmas, which is so funny because 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:01.680 he was so miserable on thanks Giving. He was miserable 0:09:01.679 --> 0:09:03.480 on Thanksgiving. I know you two were not. You guys 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:05.600 were very happy with that day. All right, let's get 0:09:05.640 --> 0:09:07.679 to the next one. Much to my chagrin, the Newingland 0:09:07.679 --> 0:09:10.360 Patriots won again last week, jerks. All right, let's get 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:12.720 to this game that they've got coming up in Buffalo. 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:17.120 Buffalo has trounced them these last few times. Around twelve 0:09:17.120 --> 0:09:19.319 points is a lot, though, Sam, forty one is the 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:21.960 number plus five hundred four New England to win this game. 0:09:22.040 --> 0:09:24.160 I know New England found a way to squeak out 0:09:24.160 --> 0:09:27.280 of victory thanks to Sean Payton over in Denver, But 0:09:27.360 --> 0:09:28.839 what are your take on this one? I know twelve 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:32.959 is a large number. Buffalo should have smashed the Chargers 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:35.840 last week. Instead, they kind of just squeaked by. I 0:09:35.840 --> 0:09:39.120 don't know, maybe the road travel, something about that, the holidays, 0:09:39.160 --> 0:09:41.920 all that crunch, But this one's at home. Is twelve 0:09:42.000 --> 0:09:44.480 too much? Or is it just right for you? Sam? 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:48.240 Joe? I have been on the Patriots each of the 0:09:48.320 --> 0:09:50.880 last two weeks, and I have won those each of 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:54.079 the last week, so I guess pushed against the Chiefs, 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.920 but I will not be on the Patriots for a 0:09:57.000 --> 0:09:59.520 third time. But I'm not on the Bills either. I 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:03.120 think since Joe Brady took over, the Bills have been 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:07.720 much more run heavy. They are wanting to run the 0:10:07.720 --> 0:10:09.800 ball as much as they can. They're sort of I 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:12.720 don't know if they're hiding Josh Allen, but it doesn't 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:15.720 seem like he trusts him that much. And the way 0:10:15.800 --> 0:10:18.000 to beat the Patriots is through the air. Their run 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:23.120 defense continues to be exceptional, and I think if Buffalo 0:10:23.559 --> 0:10:26.760 runs as much as they want to and have over 0:10:26.800 --> 0:10:29.520 the past couple of weeks, that they're going to struggle 0:10:29.600 --> 0:10:33.160 to move the ball. James Cook has been great, especially 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:36.400 from a fantasy perspective, but you know, he hasn't been 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:40.640 the most elite rusher. He's been great in the passing game. 0:10:40.760 --> 0:10:45.160 But I think honestly that the best play here might 0:10:45.160 --> 0:10:49.320 be like parlaying the under with the Patriots, because if 0:10:49.360 --> 0:10:51.760 the Bills lean into the run, I don't think they 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:54.760 have as much success, and that keeps the total a 0:10:54.840 --> 0:10:55.920 little bit lower as well. 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:59.160 That was my thinking as well. As you have seen 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:00.800 this shift here to Jack. I don't know if it's 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:03.560 hiding Josh Allen so much as maybe it's trying to 0:11:03.559 --> 0:11:06.199 balance the offense for once and trying not to ask 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:09.040 Josh Allen to do everything all the time and make 0:11:09.080 --> 0:11:11.160 every single play, because I think that's asking a lot 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:14.319 of any quarterback, no matter how talented, but to Sam's point, 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:16.960 it is that rush defense of the Patriots, that one 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:20.040 thing that does seem to be the only thing going 0:11:20.080 --> 0:11:22.960 for the Patriots this year. So that being said, is 0:11:22.960 --> 0:11:24.240 this another underfitsy for you? 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:30.080 Yeah, I'm not petting either the side or the total 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:32.960 on this one. And like, I don't have the numbers 0:11:33.000 --> 0:11:34.400 in front of me, Joe, but I would love to 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:38.280 see what the underdog is this year. In games where 0:11:38.840 --> 0:11:42.080 the underdog is catching double digit points and the total 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:44.559 on a game is relatively low, like forty two points 0:11:44.679 --> 0:11:47.760 or less, it seems like the underdog in those matchups 0:11:47.760 --> 0:11:49.920 has been doing really well this year. 0:11:49.960 --> 0:11:51.240 So that's it. 0:11:51.320 --> 0:11:53.880 Like you see a total this low in a double 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:56.760 digit spread, and I do not want to bet the favorite, 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:59.880 so I just, yeah, I can't get behind the bells. 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:02.839 And as you said, like the one thing the Patriots 0:12:02.880 --> 0:12:06.520 do Joe really well has stop the run. And with 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:09.160 Joe Brady and the Bills leading so hard on the 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:11.240 running game, like I don't know how that's gonna work out, 0:12:11.280 --> 0:12:16.480 but yeah, and Joe condolences on that victory for the Patriots, 0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:19.959 and like that probably is going to cost them the 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:24.640 quarterback they so desperately need in the draft. But you know, 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:26.880 nice to see them show their pride. 0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:30.520 I guess in Denver U pride cometh before the fall, 0:12:30.640 --> 0:12:33.600 my friend, it was miserable. Look, I can only hope 0:12:33.640 --> 0:12:35.559 that there's gonna be more trading and things going on. 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:37.640 There's also two weeks for other teams to lose two, 0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:39.960 so I can only assume these next two games the 0:12:39.960 --> 0:12:42.960 Patriots can lose to the Bills. I'm hoping, let's go Buffalo. 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:45.880 The Baltimore Ravens twelve and three are gonna host the 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:47.839 Miami Dolphins eleven and four, who finally beat a big 0:12:47.840 --> 0:12:51.720 time opponent. That's great and Baltimore Ravens shout out to them. Look, 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:54.240 last week, I was on my high horse. You know, 0:12:54.280 --> 0:12:56.000 I thought the fort Nits were unbeatable. I thought they 0:12:56.000 --> 0:12:58.400 were gonna smash. I took the five and a half, 0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:01.840 and boyle boy, was I wrong. Purdy laid an absolute egg. 0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:06.320 Interceptions galore, four of them. Now two of them, maybe 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:08.040 we gets air question all. We talked about this before 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:10.360 the show. But still there was two that he got 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:13.199 away with two that could have been interceptions. So I'll 0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:14.679 take that four or give them a three and a half, 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.319 whatever it is. But regardless get Baltimore credit. Lamar and 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:19.680 company played a great game. The defense played very well. 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:22.400 So here you go. Ravens twelve and three, Miami eleven 0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:26.040 and four. Ravens are just three point favorites. This is 0:13:26.160 --> 0:13:28.160 a really interesting line. I thought they might get a 0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:30.920 little bit more maybe the hook or possibly even more 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:33.760 Fitsy after that performance last night, But this morning, that's 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:36.600 all your gang. Forty seven is the number Miami plus 0:13:36.600 --> 0:13:39.440 one thirty five, so fits This is a huge AFC 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:41.680 game here. That's basically going to tell you how the 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:43.920 next two weeks go for both these teams. Do you 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:47.560 think that Miami is up to the task to go 0:13:47.600 --> 0:13:50.160 into Baltimore and win this football game? Or is this 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:53.840 another spot for the Ravens to assert their dominance and 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:56.120 not let their guard down, which is something the Ravens 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:58.640 seem to do in some other games, Like they get 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:01.280 up for some games and other games they look more human. 0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:03.200 Which Ravens club do we see this week? 0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:06.360 Yeah, the Ravens were clearly up for that game against 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:08.800 the forty nine ers, and I can't imagine they have 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:12.200 a letdown game in a game of this magnitude and 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:15.720 coming home. But at the same time, I think we 0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:19.160 finally got what we wanted to see from the Dolphins, 0:14:19.200 --> 0:14:22.160 and that's a win against a quality opponents. You know, 0:14:22.240 --> 0:14:24.160 like every time we wanted to crown them, they would 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:27.720 play some strong team like the Bills or whoever, and 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.560 they would lose and we'd have to question whether the 0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:34.160 Dolphins belonged in the elite tier of the NFL. So 0:14:34.240 --> 0:14:38.840 now I think they've showed that they do belong. Another 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:40.960 case where I'm not really interested in the side, Joe, 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:45.200 but you can talk me into the under here, because 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:49.800 both of these defenses again too good for the total 0:14:49.840 --> 0:14:51.800 to be this high. The Ravens are number two in 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:54.920 defensive DVOA, and I think people realize what a good 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:57.280 defense this is. Although maybe they're going to be without 0:14:57.360 --> 0:15:00.840 Kyle Hamilton, who injured his new on Sunday night. That 0:15:00.920 --> 0:15:04.040 was kind of a bummer for the Ravens. But I'm 0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:06.560 not sure the public has a really good grasp on 0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:09.240 how good this Miami defense has been over the last 0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:11.960 two months. The only teams to score more than twenty 0:15:11.960 --> 0:15:14.480 one points against the Dolphins over their last eight games 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:19.400 were the Titans, oddly enough, but so I think this 0:15:19.520 --> 0:15:22.600 total is just too tall. I think the under is 0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:24.920 the best bet in this game, and there's really no 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:27.080 value on either side in my opinion. 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.160 All right, your thoughts on Baltimore Miami and by the way, 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:33.320 Sam too, Lamar Jackson's now gone ahead of everybody for 0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:36.920 MVP is minus one seventy on the board, Christian McCaffrey 0:15:36.920 --> 0:15:39.080 a plus four fifty, and where's Brock Purdy. He's all 0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:41.960 the way plus thirteen hundred. Now, all it took was 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:44.480 a couple of picks. Maybe that's all it took. Your 0:15:44.520 --> 0:15:46.640 thoughts here on Ravens Dolphins. 0:15:47.960 --> 0:15:51.680 Yeah, the Ravens. I still can't get a full grasp 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:57.160 on like they is scoring well, like they've scored thirty 0:15:57.160 --> 0:15:59.720 plus points in some of their last nine games, but 0:16:00.520 --> 0:16:04.840 it just doesn't it looks like a challenge at certain points. 0:16:04.880 --> 0:16:07.680 And I understand Lamar is the MVP, and I think 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:10.880 that's mostly based off of vibes and like who else 0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:12.840 are you gonna give it to? And he had to 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:16.640 win in prime time against this great forty nine ers defense. Again, 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:19.120 not trying to take anything away from Lamar, because I 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:23.800 think he has been fantastic this year, but we're giving 0:16:23.840 --> 0:16:28.400 a lot of credit to this Baltimore Ravens defense that just, 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:32.160 you know, not a couple of weeks ago got sort 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:36.240 of gashed by this the Rams for thirty one points. 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:39.720 So they're just sort of like all over the place 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:44.280 for me. So I originally was going to lean Miami 0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:46.680 in this game because to your point, I think their 0:16:46.720 --> 0:16:49.880 defense is still underrated. What they've been able to do 0:16:49.960 --> 0:16:52.920 with Jalen Ramsey and even with the loss of Jalen 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:57.640 Phillips has been incredibly impressive. Vic Vangieau is calling a 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:01.000 great defense there. So I don't have a leen on 0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:02.000 this game right now. 0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:05.520 I'll say this, I'm pretty sure we get the forty 0:17:05.600 --> 0:17:07.080 nine er game. We're all gonna agree the fort Niners 0:17:07.119 --> 0:17:09.960 are going to win if Baltimore has another hiccup here 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:13.240 this Christian McCaffrey a plus four fifty for MVP. That's 0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:15.040 the bet of the week, that's the better of the week. 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:16.320 I mean, I don't know how you don't do that 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:19.439 because he is the MVP. We're trying to give it 0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:21.840 to anybody here. But if you think about this year, 0:17:21.880 --> 0:17:24.760 who's been the most valuable asset in the National Football League? 0:17:25.200 --> 0:17:27.320 I don't think there's any doubt that at this juncture 0:17:27.320 --> 0:17:30.240 in the season, it's McCaffrey. No quarterback has really stepped 0:17:30.280 --> 0:17:32.680 up consistently. They've all had moments, but everybody's kind of 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:34.800 drifted backwards. At the end of the day. I think 0:17:34.800 --> 0:17:36.879 it's McCaffrey right now. I know we don't like to 0:17:36.920 --> 0:17:39.040 give I know it's Peterson and we got to go 0:17:39.080 --> 0:17:41.960 back to like Sean Alexander for God's sakes. But I 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:43.840 don't know, Sam, you look like you have feelings about 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:45.600 this as I'm saying, yeah, I. 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:47.760 Mean, we could do a whole nother podcast on this. 0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:53.879 But the reactionary nature of this, the awards market for 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:57.160 the MVP specifically, I mean, at the end of the day, 0:17:57.240 --> 0:17:59.280 these voters, I think are going to go back and 0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:03.960 look at the full landscape and product of their season 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:06.959 and not just react to the most recent Monday night 0:18:07.000 --> 0:18:12.000 football game. And hell yeah turned out so again, if 0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:14.280 there was any year that a running back or someone 0:18:14.280 --> 0:18:17.280 like Christian McCaffrey was going to win it, certainly this 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:20.680 is the year. But I do think that players like 0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:24.160 Lamar Jackson, I mean, if the Dolphins win this game, 0:18:24.200 --> 0:18:26.360 to us probably going to be the MVP favorite after 0:18:26.480 --> 0:18:27.800 the after the game yeah, but you know. 0:18:27.760 --> 0:18:29.640 What, he ate the MVP either, And I think when 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:32.080 you look totality of everything, I don't think that's gonna 0:18:32.080 --> 0:18:35.040 be I don't think Look, Rock Party was on by 0:18:35.040 --> 0:18:37.280 a thread and then this game happened, and this is 0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:38.800 I don't know if you can recover from this one 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:41.080 not in this race. I really don't think that. Pat, 0:18:41.080 --> 0:18:43.040 I don't know what your thoughts are here. But to 0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:45.040 Sam's point, like we could just juggle back and forth, 0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:46.880 but the one guy every single week is getting done 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:49.320 who is putting up magical stats as Christian McCaffrey. You 0:18:49.359 --> 0:18:51.640 got twenty something touchdowns. What are we doing here? 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:52.720 It's funny. 0:18:52.720 --> 0:18:57.440 At Christmas a Christmas Day gathering yesterday, my cousin's fiance 0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:02.199 has Christian McCaffrey at plus thirty eight. He has a 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:04.960 bet on Christian McCaffrey plus thirty eight hundred, and he 0:19:05.160 --> 0:19:08.239 like laid out the possibilities, like, well, the forty nine 0:19:08.320 --> 0:19:09.760 ers would probably have to lay an egg in this 0:19:09.840 --> 0:19:12.200 game against the Ravens and Purty is a really bad game. 0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:14.240 Then Lamar has to lose at Miami. 0:19:14.000 --> 0:19:16.879 And you know, McCaffrey like bounces back with some massive 0:19:16.920 --> 0:19:20.199 game against Washington, which could very easily happen. 0:19:21.640 --> 0:19:25.160 I could pree it, Like, yeah, I don't. I don't 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:27.040 hate those odds on McCaffrey right now. 0:19:27.080 --> 0:19:29.719