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Speaker 1: Welcome in, everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me, Joey Pa joe Pisapia and

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Speaker 1: it's week seventeen. Can you believe it? Fantasy championships will

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Speaker 1: be won or lost this week, but neither matters here

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Speaker 1: because this is just about us making money on football.

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Speaker 1: This is about us having fun, and we're still having fun.

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Speaker 1: So fantasy might be over if a betting never stops.

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Speaker 1: And of course neither of these two guys, because it's

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Speaker 1: the morning after Christmas and here we are opening a

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Speaker 1: present of a show for you. Sam Hoppin right here,

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Speaker 1: fresh off of too many Christmas cookies, and Pat fitz Morris,

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Speaker 1: fresh off of, you know, just the entire Christmas season.

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Speaker 1: Just the eggnog continues to flow through Pat fitz Morris

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Speaker 1: in a very strong way. But regardless, we're here. I've

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Speaker 1: got more lasagna to feed people. Because Christmases never end.

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Speaker 1: When you're Italian, you just have every cousin that you

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Speaker 1: ever had in your entire life come over your house.

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Speaker 1: And that's what's happening for the rest of the week.

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Speaker 1: But it doesn't matter. We're still here talking football. We

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Speaker 1: got a great time for you today, So if you

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Speaker 1: haven't already subscribe to the YouTube channel, drop your comments

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Speaker 1: below because we're still giving away premium upgrades of betting

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Speaker 1: pros want you to win all of those that are

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Speaker 1: possibly left here as the season comes to a close.

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Speaker 1: What a wacky weekend of football. We had incredible performances

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Speaker 1: from Amari Cooper last week, some upsets on those Christmas

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Speaker 1: Day games as well. You know, guys, I thought something

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Speaker 1: was gonna go sideways. If you look at these games,

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Speaker 1: you're like, wow, these are three heavy home favorites. Something's

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Speaker 1: gonna go sideways. I thought one. I didn't think two

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Speaker 1: were gonna go sideways, and the one that went sideways,

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Speaker 1: they didn't go sideways, is the only one that I

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Speaker 1: thought was going to So at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: it's a hot mess, but we're gonna sort it out.

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Speaker 1: That's what we're gonna do. And let's jump right in

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Speaker 1: feed first to some of the games we've got going

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Speaker 1: on here today, and again, don't forget to subscribe because

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Speaker 1: we've also got the NBA Action here on the program

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Speaker 1: as well, which is a great time. Every Wednesday and Friday,

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Speaker 1: we've got best NBA bets going on there on Fast

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Speaker 1: Break Bets with Matt Mody eleven AM Eastern right here

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Speaker 1: on the channel live, so you can ask questions, you

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Speaker 1: can get involved with the NBA action. So, gentlemen, let's

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Speaker 1: kick things off with the first game another Thursday night.

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Speaker 1: Or the New York Jets coming off an incredible performance

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Speaker 1: at home when they've got eliminated for the playoffs, going

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Speaker 1: against the Cleveland Browns. Cleveland's ten and five, they are

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Speaker 1: seven point home favorites, an incredible game for Joe Flacco.

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Speaker 1: Thirty six and a half is a consensus number on

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Speaker 1: betting pros right now, plus two sixty for the Jets. Upset. Sam,

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Speaker 1: Let's start with you on this one here the Cleveland

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Speaker 1: Browns a very convincing victory and incredible performance. Joe Flacco

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Speaker 1: continues to just throw a three hundred yard game after

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Speaker 1: three hundred yard game. So any feelings about this line

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Speaker 1: and the early value and could this one possibly even

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Speaker 1: continue to grow as the week drags on.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I am about forty minutes outside of Cleveland for

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Speaker 2: the holidays, and let me tell you it is buzzin'

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Speaker 2: here with with how good this offense looks. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this offense looks probably the best it has in the

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Speaker 2: last two years. It's I know. I mentioned last week

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Speaker 2: that def Flacco isn't really playing as well as the

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Speaker 2: results have shown, and I think that's still the case

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Speaker 2: to a degree, but Kevin Stefanski is dialing up some

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Speaker 2: incredible play calls using play action at a slightly higher

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Speaker 2: rate with Joe Flacco under center. They just had their

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Speaker 2: third positive EPA performance on the year this past week,

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Speaker 2: and even in the event that Flacco does turn it over,

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Speaker 2: this defense is still good enough to hold opposing offenses down,

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Speaker 2: so it doesn't really cost them that much. Seven is

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Speaker 2: a lot of points, though, against this Jets defense that

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Speaker 2: continues to play well despite the second half blunder they

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Speaker 2: had against Washington this past week. So I don't have

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Speaker 2: a lean on the side for this game right now.

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Speaker 2: I think I would lean Cleveland. I believe it's about

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Speaker 2: minus seven right now. I made it minus six for Cleveland,

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Speaker 2: but again, not confident enough to want to back.

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Speaker 1: The Jets, understandably so, and boy, you got to be

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Speaker 1: loving that Cleveland to win the AFC that you had there,

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Speaker 1: because that one from thirty to one to twenty to

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Speaker 1: one over the last couple weeks, So Sam's loving that investment.

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Speaker 1: FITZI a performance from the Jets and Breeze all that

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Speaker 1: I don't think anybody really saw coming necessarily, and that

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Speaker 1: throws a wrinkle into this just slightly. But this one

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Speaker 1: is in Cleveland, so I'm kind of where Sam is,

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Speaker 1: which is it feels about right your thoughts on this

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Speaker 1: one here as Cleveland continues to put together good performance

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Speaker 1: after good performance lately.

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Speaker 3: Well, it's funny, Joe, when you talked about things going

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Speaker 3: sideways for a couple of the home favorites at the

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Speaker 3: top of the show, I bet you weren't even talking

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Speaker 3: about the Jets. And I took them last weekend and

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Speaker 3: was counting my money about an hour into that game

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Speaker 3: and things started to get away from them. So this

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Speaker 3: does seem like a lot of points. But the Jets

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Speaker 3: have been really bad on the road this year, and

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Speaker 3: they've been especially bad as big road dogs. They're one

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Speaker 3: in five against the spread on the road, zero and

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Speaker 3: three against the spread on the road when underdogs by

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Speaker 3: seven or more points. So they have played down to

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Speaker 3: expectations in some of these games where they been big

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Speaker 3: road dogs. But this is a really tough matchup for

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Speaker 3: Joe Flacco. I mean, the Jets have been tough on

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Speaker 3: opposing passing games. You have to tip your hat to

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Speaker 3: him for making this Cleveland passing game go. But he

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Speaker 3: also has five interceptions in his last two games, and

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Speaker 3: that's what scares me about possibly taking the Browns here.

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Speaker 3: I don't really want to bet the Browns. I'm not

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Speaker 3: betting the Jets on the road here, so you can

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Speaker 3: interest me in the under though. Like I mean, the

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Speaker 3: Browns have an excellent defense, the Jets have a very

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Speaker 3: good defense, and like I could see this one turning

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Speaker 3: into a total rock fight. So I'm inclined to bet

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Speaker 3: the under here more so than either side.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's go to the next one here, Detroit

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Speaker 1: at Dallas. Dallas again dropping another big game on the

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Speaker 1: road as Dallas is wont to do. The Detroit Lions

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Speaker 1: have wrapped up the North. They are Kings of the

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Speaker 1: North for the first time in a very long time.

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Speaker 1: They are six point underdogs though going into Dallas, which

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Speaker 1: is where Dallas does their best work, so this is understandable.

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Speaker 1: Fifty three and a half is the number here on

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Speaker 1: betting pros plus two twenty four. The Lions now, Pat,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I imagine you know it's week seventeen. I

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Speaker 1: don't think you can start sitting guys necessarily here if

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Speaker 1: you're Dan Campbell, I think guys are gonna get out

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Speaker 1: there and continue to work. And Jared Goff does play

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Speaker 1: good and controlled environments. We know this. I'm on the

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Speaker 1: Detroit side of this game, and I actually kind of

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Speaker 1: think that plus two twenty the money line is the

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Speaker 1: most intriguing part. I think Dallas is reeling a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I know they've been brilliant at home, but you know what,

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Speaker 1: Detroit Lions right now, at least the six. To me,

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Speaker 1: that's a good temptation. I want to go there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, first, Blatch, this does seem like it's too many points, Joe, and.

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Speaker 4: Like the reason.

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Speaker 3: The only thing that gives me pause, and you said

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Speaker 3: it is how good Dallas has been at home seven

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Speaker 3: and zero straight up, six and one against the spread

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Speaker 3: this year for the Cowboys when they're at home. So

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure if I'm gonna pull the trigger on

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Speaker 3: the Lions or not. Like it's it's really close, but

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Speaker 3: I like, if I'm going to bet this, that's who

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Speaker 3: I'm going to bet.

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Speaker 4: So I agree with you like that is where the

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Speaker 4: lean is, and I've.

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Speaker 3: Already bet the under like such a tall number that

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Speaker 3: you really need both teams to go up and down

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Speaker 3: the field on this one to get an over. And

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys ranked sixth in defensive DVOA and the Lions

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Speaker 3: ranked thirteenth, So these are two pretty good defenses and

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Speaker 3: not a case where you're getting a gross mismatch where

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Speaker 3: a couple of really good offenses picking on bad defenses.

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Speaker 4: The defenses here.

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Speaker 3: Are legits, so I don't think we're likely to get

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Speaker 3: a point total in the upper fifties here.

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Speaker 1: Sam Pott makes a great case for the under in

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Speaker 1: this game with the high total of fifty three and

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Speaker 1: a half.

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Speaker 2: Do you concur Yeah, I mean I think that's the side. Again,

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Speaker 2: with the total of this big, you'd need everything to

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Speaker 2: go right. You can't have those long drives that in

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Speaker 2: in a field goal or a red zone turnover, things

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Speaker 2: like that. Those will absolutely kill the chance of this

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Speaker 2: going over. But I'm with both of you. I think

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Speaker 2: the Lions are clearly the side here. Last four games

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Speaker 2: Dallas has played Seattle, Philadelphia, Buffalo in Miami, so four

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Speaker 2: pretty good offenses. But they are struggling on defense to

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Speaker 2: hold these offenses. Over the last four weeks, they are

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Speaker 2: thirty second in early down EPA per play and early

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Speaker 2: down success rate, and Detroit still is one of the

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Speaker 2: better offenses. They're playing with one of the best offensive

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Speaker 2: coordinators in Ben Johnson. So I think Detroit has a

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Speaker 2: chance to take this win in Dallas. I mean, there's

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Speaker 2: no way that Detroit is sitting anyone over the next

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Speaker 2: two weeks, so they still have a chance to the

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Speaker 2: number one seed with everyone at eleven and four at

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Speaker 2: the top of the NFC. So I really like Detroit

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Speaker 2: in this spot and think they could come away with

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Speaker 2: the win.

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Speaker 1: How crazy would that be if the Lions were not

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Speaker 1: only just the Kings of the North, but the number

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Speaker 1: one seed. I talked to a buddy of mine who

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Speaker 1: has been a long time suffering Lions fan, and he

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Speaker 1: was so excited Yesterdong Christmas, which is so funny because

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Speaker 1: he was so miserable on thanks Giving. He was miserable

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Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. I know you two were not. You guys

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Speaker 1: were very happy with that day. All right, let's get

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Speaker 1: to the next one. Much to my chagrin, the Newingland

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Speaker 1: Patriots won again last week, jerks. All right, let's get

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Speaker 1: to this game that they've got coming up in Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: Buffalo has trounced them these last few times. Around twelve

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Speaker 1: points is a lot, though, Sam, forty one is the

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Speaker 1: number plus five hundred four New England to win this game.

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Speaker 1: I know New England found a way to squeak out

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Speaker 1: of victory thanks to Sean Payton over in Denver, But

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Speaker 1: what are your take on this one? I know twelve

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Speaker 1: is a large number. Buffalo should have smashed the Chargers

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Speaker 1: last week. Instead, they kind of just squeaked by. I

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Speaker 1: don't know, maybe the road travel, something about that, the holidays,

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Speaker 1: all that crunch, But this one's at home. Is twelve

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Speaker 1: too much? Or is it just right for you? Sam?

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Speaker 2: Joe? I have been on the Patriots each of the

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Speaker 2: last two weeks, and I have won those each of

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Speaker 2: the last week, so I guess pushed against the Chiefs,

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Speaker 2: but I will not be on the Patriots for a

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Speaker 2: third time. But I'm not on the Bills either. I

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Speaker 2: think since Joe Brady took over, the Bills have been

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Speaker 2: much more run heavy. They are wanting to run the

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Speaker 2: ball as much as they can. They're sort of I

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Speaker 2: don't know if they're hiding Josh Allen, but it doesn't

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Speaker 2: seem like he trusts him that much. And the way

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Speaker 2: to beat the Patriots is through the air. Their run

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Speaker 2: defense continues to be exceptional, and I think if Buffalo

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Speaker 2: runs as much as they want to and have over

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Speaker 2: the past couple of weeks, that they're going to struggle

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Speaker 2: to move the ball. James Cook has been great, especially

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Speaker 2: from a fantasy perspective, but you know, he hasn't been

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Speaker 2: the most elite rusher. He's been great in the passing game.

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Speaker 2: But I think honestly that the best play here might

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Speaker 2: be like parlaying the under with the Patriots, because if

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Speaker 2: the Bills lean into the run, I don't think they

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Speaker 2: have as much success, and that keeps the total a

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Speaker 2: little bit lower as well.

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Speaker 1: That was my thinking as well. As you have seen

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Speaker 1: this shift here to Jack. I don't know if it's

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Speaker 1: hiding Josh Allen so much as maybe it's trying to

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Speaker 1: balance the offense for once and trying not to ask

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen to do everything all the time and make

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Speaker 1: every single play, because I think that's asking a lot

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Speaker 1: of any quarterback, no matter how talented, but to Sam's point,

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Speaker 1: it is that rush defense of the Patriots, that one

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Speaker 1: thing that does seem to be the only thing going

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Speaker 1: for the Patriots this year. So that being said, is

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Speaker 1: this another underfitsy for you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not petting either the side or the total

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Speaker 3: on this one. And like, I don't have the numbers

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Speaker 3: in front of me, Joe, but I would love to

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Speaker 3: see what the underdog is this year. In games where

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Speaker 3: the underdog is catching double digit points and the total

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Speaker 3: on a game is relatively low, like forty two points

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Speaker 3: or less, it seems like the underdog in those matchups

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Speaker 3: has been doing really well this year.

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Speaker 4: So that's it.

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Speaker 3: Like you see a total this low in a double

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Speaker 3: digit spread, and I do not want to bet the favorite,

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Speaker 3: so I just, yeah, I can't get behind the bells.

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Speaker 3: And as you said, like the one thing the Patriots

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Speaker 3: do Joe really well has stop the run. And with

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Speaker 3: Joe Brady and the Bills leading so hard on the

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Speaker 3: running game, like I don't know how that's gonna work out,

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Speaker 3: but yeah, and Joe condolences on that victory for the Patriots,

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Speaker 3: and like that probably is going to cost them the

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Speaker 3: quarterback they so desperately need in the draft. But you know,

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Speaker 3: nice to see them show their pride.

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Speaker 1: I guess in Denver U pride cometh before the fall,

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Speaker 1: my friend, it was miserable. Look, I can only hope

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Speaker 1: that there's gonna be more trading and things going on.

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Speaker 1: There's also two weeks for other teams to lose two,

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Speaker 1: so I can only assume these next two games the

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Speaker 1: Patriots can lose to the Bills. I'm hoping, let's go Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: The Baltimore Ravens twelve and three are gonna host the

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Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins eleven and four, who finally beat a big

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Speaker 1: time opponent. That's great and Baltimore Ravens shout out to them. Look,

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Speaker 1: last week, I was on my high horse. You know,

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Speaker 1: I thought the fort Nits were unbeatable. I thought they

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Speaker 1: were gonna smash. I took the five and a half,

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Speaker 1: and boyle boy, was I wrong. Purdy laid an absolute egg.

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Speaker 1: Interceptions galore, four of them. Now two of them, maybe

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Speaker 1: we gets air question all. We talked about this before

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Speaker 1: the show. But still there was two that he got

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Speaker 1: away with two that could have been interceptions. So I'll

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Speaker 1: take that four or give them a three and a half,

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Speaker 1: whatever it is. But regardless get Baltimore credit. Lamar and

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Speaker 1: company played a great game. The defense played very well.

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Speaker 1: So here you go. Ravens twelve and three, Miami eleven

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Speaker 1: and four. Ravens are just three point favorites. This is

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Speaker 1: a really interesting line. I thought they might get a

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Speaker 1: little bit more maybe the hook or possibly even more

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Speaker 1: Fitsy after that performance last night, But this morning, that's

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Speaker 1: all your gang. Forty seven is the number Miami plus

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Speaker 1: one thirty five, so fits This is a huge AFC

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Speaker 1: game here. That's basically going to tell you how the

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Speaker 1: next two weeks go for both these teams. Do you

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Speaker 1: think that Miami is up to the task to go

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Speaker 1: into Baltimore and win this football game? Or is this

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Speaker 1: another spot for the Ravens to assert their dominance and

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Speaker 1: not let their guard down, which is something the Ravens

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Speaker 1: seem to do in some other games, Like they get

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Speaker 1: up for some games and other games they look more human.

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Speaker 1: Which Ravens club do we see this week?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Ravens were clearly up for that game against

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Speaker 3: the forty nine ers, and I can't imagine they have

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Speaker 3: a letdown game in a game of this magnitude and

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Speaker 3: coming home. But at the same time, I think we

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Speaker 3: finally got what we wanted to see from the Dolphins,

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Speaker 3: and that's a win against a quality opponents. You know,

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Speaker 3: like every time we wanted to crown them, they would

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Speaker 3: play some strong team like the Bills or whoever, and

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Speaker 3: they would lose and we'd have to question whether the

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Speaker 3: Dolphins belonged in the elite tier of the NFL. So

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Speaker 3: now I think they've showed that they do belong. Another

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Speaker 3: case where I'm not really interested in the side, Joe,

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Speaker 3: but you can talk me into the under here, because

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Speaker 3: both of these defenses again too good for the total

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Speaker 3: to be this high. The Ravens are number two in

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Speaker 3: defensive DVOA, and I think people realize what a good

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Speaker 3: defense this is. Although maybe they're going to be without

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Speaker 3: Kyle Hamilton, who injured his new on Sunday night. That

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Speaker 3: was kind of a bummer for the Ravens. But I'm

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Speaker 3: not sure the public has a really good grasp on

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Speaker 3: how good this Miami defense has been over the last

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Speaker 3: two months. The only teams to score more than twenty

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Speaker 3: one points against the Dolphins over their last eight games

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Speaker 3: were the Titans, oddly enough, but so I think this

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Speaker 3: total is just too tall. I think the under is

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Speaker 3: the best bet in this game, and there's really no

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Speaker 3: value on either side in my opinion.

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Speaker 1: All right, your thoughts on Baltimore Miami and by the way,

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Speaker 1: Sam too, Lamar Jackson's now gone ahead of everybody for

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Speaker 1: MVP is minus one seventy on the board, Christian McCaffrey

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Speaker 1: a plus four fifty, and where's Brock Purdy. He's all

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Speaker 1: the way plus thirteen hundred. Now, all it took was

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Speaker 1: a couple of picks. Maybe that's all it took. Your

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Speaker 1: thoughts here on Ravens Dolphins.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the Ravens. I still can't get a full grasp

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Speaker 2: on like they is scoring well, like they've scored thirty

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Speaker 2: plus points in some of their last nine games, but

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Speaker 2: it just doesn't it looks like a challenge at certain points.

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Speaker 2: And I understand Lamar is the MVP, and I think

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Speaker 2: that's mostly based off of vibes and like who else

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Speaker 2: are you gonna give it to? And he had to

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Speaker 2: win in prime time against this great forty nine ers defense. Again,

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Speaker 2: not trying to take anything away from Lamar, because I

335
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Speaker 2: think he has been fantastic this year, but we're giving

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Speaker 2: a lot of credit to this Baltimore Ravens defense that just,

337
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Speaker 2: you know, not a couple of weeks ago got sort

338
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Speaker 2: of gashed by this the Rams for thirty one points.

339
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Speaker 2: So they're just sort of like all over the place

340
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Speaker 2: for me. So I originally was going to lean Miami

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Speaker 2: in this game because to your point, I think their

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Speaker 2: defense is still underrated. What they've been able to do

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Speaker 2: with Jalen Ramsey and even with the loss of Jalen

344
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Speaker 2: Phillips has been incredibly impressive. Vic Vangieau is calling a

345
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Speaker 2: great defense there. So I don't have a leen on

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Speaker 2: this game right now.

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Speaker 1: I'll say this, I'm pretty sure we get the forty

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Speaker 1: nine er game. We're all gonna agree the fort Niners

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Speaker 1: are going to win if Baltimore has another hiccup here

350
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Speaker 1: this Christian McCaffrey a plus four fifty for MVP. That's

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Speaker 1: the bet of the week, that's the better of the week.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how you don't do that

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Speaker 1: because he is the MVP. We're trying to give it

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Speaker 1: to anybody here. But if you think about this year,

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Speaker 1: who's been the most valuable asset in the National Football League?

356
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Speaker 1: I don't think there's any doubt that at this juncture

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Speaker 1: in the season, it's McCaffrey. No quarterback has really stepped

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Speaker 1: up consistently. They've all had moments, but everybody's kind of

359
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Speaker 1: drifted backwards. At the end of the day. I think

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Speaker 1: it's McCaffrey right now. I know we don't like to

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Speaker 1: give I know it's Peterson and we got to go

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Speaker 1: back to like Sean Alexander for God's sakes. But I

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Speaker 1: don't know, Sam, you look like you have feelings about

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Speaker 1: this as I'm saying, yeah, I.

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Speaker 2: Mean, we could do a whole nother podcast on this.

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Speaker 2: But the reactionary nature of this, the awards market for

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Speaker 2: the MVP specifically, I mean, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 2: these voters, I think are going to go back and

369
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Speaker 2: look at the full landscape and product of their season

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Speaker 2: and not just react to the most recent Monday night

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Speaker 2: football game. And hell yeah turned out so again, if

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Speaker 2: there was any year that a running back or someone

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Speaker 2: like Christian McCaffrey was going to win it, certainly this

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Speaker 2: is the year. But I do think that players like

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Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson, I mean, if the Dolphins win this game,

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Speaker 2: to us probably going to be the MVP favorite after

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Speaker 2: the after the game yeah, but you know.

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Speaker 1: What, he ate the MVP either, And I think when

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Speaker 1: you look totality of everything, I don't think that's gonna

380
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Speaker 1: be I don't think Look, Rock Party was on by

381
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Speaker 1: a thread and then this game happened, and this is

382
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Speaker 1: I don't know if you can recover from this one

383
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,080
Speaker 1: not in this race. I really don't think that. Pat,

384
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Speaker 1: I don't know what your thoughts are here. But to

385
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Speaker 1: Sam's point, like we could just juggle back and forth,

386
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Speaker 1: but the one guy every single week is getting done

387
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Speaker 1: who is putting up magical stats as Christian McCaffrey. You

388
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Speaker 1: got twenty something touchdowns. What are we doing here?

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Speaker 4: It's funny.

390
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Speaker 3: At Christmas a Christmas Day gathering yesterday, my cousin's fiance

391
00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:02,199
Speaker 3: has Christian McCaffrey at plus thirty eight. He has a

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Speaker 3: bet on Christian McCaffrey plus thirty eight hundred, and he

393
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Speaker 3: like laid out the possibilities, like, well, the forty nine

394
00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:09,760
Speaker 3: ers would probably have to lay an egg in this

395
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Speaker 3: game against the Ravens and Purty is a really bad game.

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Speaker 4: Then Lamar has to lose at Miami.

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Speaker 3: And you know, McCaffrey like bounces back with some massive

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Speaker 3: game against Washington, which could very easily happen.

399
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Speaker 4: I could pree it, Like, yeah, I don't. I don't

400
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Speaker 4: hate those odds on McCaffrey right now.

401
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Speaker 3: We know it's traditionally been a quarterbacks award, but like

402
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Speaker 3: this is setting up for those rare years where a

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Speaker 3: running back could sneak through Pat.

404
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Speaker 1: There's been one quarterback pillar to post that's really bit

405
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Speaker 1: it this year. All right, we spent a little time

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Speaker 1: on that. Let's let's fly through these games here. Vegas Indianapolis,

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Speaker 1: Indianapolis three point favorites at home. Vegas huge upset, Sam.

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Speaker 1: This number is forty four and a half plus one

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Speaker 1: thirty five on the Vegas side. Look, the Colts have

410
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Speaker 1: been an enigma all year in terms of betting. But

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Speaker 1: you got to give credit to Antonio Pearson, the Raiders man.

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Speaker 1: He has had this team from minute one of taking

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Speaker 1: over that job, prepared to play and ready to play.

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Speaker 1: That makes it very dangerous. Are they dangerous in this one?

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Speaker 2: I think they are. I mean, I think I was

416
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Speaker 2: actually surprised that the market wasn't more in favor of

417
00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:15,639
Speaker 2: Las Vegas after their win against Kansas City. But I

418
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:18,119
Speaker 2: think there's two things. I mean, the people sort of

419
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 2: realized that the win was fluky. They scored two defensive touchdowns,

420
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,399
Speaker 2: barely had over two hundred yards of offense, and we

421
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Speaker 2: know that this Chief's offense is not what it used

422
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Speaker 2: to be, so shutting them down is not the great

423
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Speaker 2: feat that it once was. That said Antonio Pierce wants

424
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Speaker 2: to establish the hell out of the run. I mean,

425
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Speaker 2: if they get a lead, they are going to run

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Speaker 2: as much as possible. Fortunately, that is not a strong

427
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Speaker 2: spot for Indianapolis. It helps that the Raiders are fourth

428
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Speaker 2: in EPA per rush over the last four weeks. They're

429
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Speaker 2: doing it without Josh Jacobs as well, who seems like

430
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Speaker 2: he might be back this next week. It sounded like

431
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Speaker 2: he was close to playing in this game against Kansas

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Speaker 2: City as well well. So I like the Raiders in

433
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,199
Speaker 2: this spot to pull off the upset even on a

434
00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:04,680
Speaker 2: short week.

435
00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,199
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, O'Connell is not impressive. I'm sorry. I watched

436
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 1: that game, and you know he is not the Goods

437
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:12,000
Speaker 1: And I didn't think it was the Goods when you

438
00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,879
Speaker 1: were in college either. So whatever that pivot is, it

439
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 1: makes you ponder like if Garoppolo was healthy enough to

440
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,119
Speaker 1: really play, like maybe this could be a really dangerous,

441
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,800
Speaker 1: A very dangerous team potentially fits. I don't have a

442
00:21:23,800 --> 00:21:26,359
Speaker 1: lot of faith in O'Connell, but there's something about Antonio Pierce.

443
00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 1: It just gets this defense fired up. To get this

444
00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 1: team very focused, they find ways to win and be competitive.

445
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 1: And Indy is, as I said before, a bit of

446
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:35,960
Speaker 1: an enigma. I know for you especially, you've mentioned it

447
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:37,439
Speaker 1: several times this year. What do you think of this

448
00:21:37,520 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 1: game here with the early kind of here you go

449
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 1: choose your own adventure that Vegas is laying out for us.

450
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Raiders have been really plucky under Antonio Pierce,

451
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 3: but I am not the Shane stike In disciple that

452
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 3: Sam is. But I do think there's a little bit

453
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 3: of value on the calls here. And Sam mentioned like

454
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 3: he's surprised this line is not pointing more in the

455
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 3: Raiders direction. But think of what this line probably would

456
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 3: have been before last weekend's results, with the Chiefs getting

457
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 3: upset by the Raiders and the Colts laying this egg,

458
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,359
Speaker 3: probably playing their worst game of the season against the Falcons,

459
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 3: like I think had Week sixteen never happened, I think

460
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,960
Speaker 3: you've probably seeing Colts minus five, minus five and a

461
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 3: half in this one, so you know you you talked

462
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 3: about it, Joe, like the Chiefs offense or maybe it

463
00:22:25,119 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 3: was you, Sam, Sorry, the Chiefs offense really struggling. They

464
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 3: gift wrapped the Raiders a couple of presents with those

465
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 3: back to back defensive scores on consecutive plays. I believe

466
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 3: that was the Raiders just don't have much of a

467
00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 3: passing game. And well their explosion against the Chargers two

468
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 3: weeks ago, notwithstanding, but I.

469
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 1: Think like sixty dropped two, but that was the Chargers.

470
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,240
Speaker 3: You know, And like, I think we could see the

471
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 3: Colts come out breathing fire after playing such a poor

472
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,639
Speaker 3: game against the Falcons last week. Like think, I think

473
00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 3: they're going to come back hard in this one. And

474
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:02,760
Speaker 3: I am leaning towards betting the Colts here. Have not

475
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 3: done it yet, but I think I am going to

476
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 3: bet the Coults.

477
00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 1: Speaking of the Falcons, they are going to travel to

478
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 1: Chicago to take on the Bears. They are three point

479
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:14,000
Speaker 1: underdogs in Chicago. Thirty eight is the number plus one

480
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 1: thirty for the Falcons fits. Again, confidence is a tricky

481
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 1: word this time of the year in certain teams. Do

482
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 1: you have confidence that Chicago can handle their business? And

483
00:23:24,440 --> 00:23:26,640
Speaker 1: Atlanta will continue their road woes. Or do you think

484
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 1: Atlanta somehow finds a way to pull out a victory here.

485
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 4: Nope. I bet the Bears. They've won three of the

486
00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 4: last four.

487
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 3: They've held opponents to an average of fourteen point eight

488
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 3: points per game over that stretch, and the Chicago defense

489
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 3: is just playing really well lately, and Justin Fields is

490
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 3: generating offense. The Falcons need this game, but are we

491
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 3: going to trust Arthur Smith in a must win game.

492
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:50,639
Speaker 4: I don't know about you, guys, but I am not.

493
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 3: And last week's Massy Peabody rankings suggested that the Bears

494
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 3: are about two points better than the Falcons on a

495
00:23:57,800 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 3: neutral field. This is not going to be a new

496
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,439
Speaker 3: neutral field. It's a dome team from the Deep South

497
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,719
Speaker 3: coming up to Chicago to play an outdoor game, and

498
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 3: temperatures that are probably going to be in the thirties

499
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 3: next Sunday.

500
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,160
Speaker 4: So I like the Bears here. I'll lay the field goal.

501
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 1: All right, Sam, your thoughts on this contest here between

502
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 1: the Bears and the Falcons? Any value here on this line?

503
00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 2: I don't see anything on the sides, but I think

504
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 2: the under is in play here. The Atlanta defense is

505
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 2: legit and they have been all year. And for how

506
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 2: good the Bears defense has played recently, their offense has

507
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:37,040
Speaker 2: continued to struggle. They rank thirty second in passing success

508
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 2: rate over the last four weeks. And again the free

509
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:44,600
Speaker 2: agency additions that Atlanta brought in on defense, and Mcleus

510
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,880
Speaker 2: Campbell is playing very well for I think thirty eight

511
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 2: years old. So I think both of these teams, again

512
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 2: with strong defenses, less than ideal offenses. Give me down

513
00:24:56,920 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 2: right here.

514
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 1: Falcons are a quarterback and a co away. That's all

515
00:25:00,840 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 1: they are. Quarterback of the coach get those two things

516
00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:04,879
Speaker 1: in the off season. I think they get right in

517
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:09,199
Speaker 1: the things I know, I know, but you never know.

518
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,760
Speaker 1: I mean, crazy things happen sometimes coaches show up with quarterbacks.

519
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:13,439
Speaker 5: You know.

520
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 1: Sometimes we've seen that happen when guys leave together. All right, Carolina,

521
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 1: Jacksonville's the next one here. Carolina is two and thirteen,

522
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 1: Jacksonville's eight and seven. SAM minus six and a half

523
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 1: is the number for this one. The Jags are favorite

524
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: at home, as one would imagine Carolina being as poor

525
00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 1: as they are. Thirty seven and a half is the

526
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 1: total for this game, plus two to thirty for Carolina

527
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: when you're looking at this one too. I know Jacksonville

528
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 1: has had its struggles, but is this one where they

529
00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:37,960
Speaker 1: can handle their business and cover the six and a half?

530
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 4: Sam?

531
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 2: I think so? I think I want to buy the

532
00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 2: Jags here. Carolina just had its best offensive output, but

533
00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 2: it was against the Packers and Jill Berry's defense that

534
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 2: had previously allowed back to back NFC Player of the

535
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 2: Week awards. So I think this is a get right

536
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:58,159
Speaker 2: game for Jacksonville. I'm not sure the status of Trevor

537
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 2: Lawrence at this point. I think he injured his throwing arm.

538
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 2: But even if it is CJ. Brethlord, I think Jacksonville

539
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:09,960
Speaker 2: they wanted to run the ball a lot and have struggled,

540
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 2: but I think Carolina gives them an opportunity to run

541
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,400
Speaker 2: the ball as effectively as they want. So I think,

542
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 2: regardless of quarterback, I want the Jags here.

543
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 1: All right, Pat, your thoughts on this game here? The

544
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,160
Speaker 1: Jags obviously a lot of injuries, a lot of issues

545
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 1: the last few weeks. Is this the get right game

546
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 1: for them?

547
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 3: I'm not sure it is, Joe. Four straight losses and

548
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 3: they have been stomped by the Ravens and the Buccaneers

549
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 3: the last two weeks, and like, I don't want to

550
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 3: bet the Panthers either, I'm just going to pass on

551
00:26:37,160 --> 00:26:37,919
Speaker 3: this one.

552
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 1: All right, fair enough, Let's get to the next one

553
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 1: then Tampa at excuse me, Tampa hosting New Orleans. The

554
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers are eight and seven, Saints are seven

555
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 1: and eight. The Bucks, as they should be, three point

556
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 1: favorites at home. Forty two is the consensus number plus

557
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,800
Speaker 1: one thirty five here on the New Orleans Saints money

558
00:26:55,840 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 1: line fits. Tampa Bay just kind of feels like, ironically,

559
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:02,639
Speaker 1: at this juncture in the season, the best team in

560
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 1: this division, and this is the chance for them to

561
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,159
Speaker 1: really go out there improve it. Will they do that

562
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 1: this weekend?

563
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 4: Yeah?

564
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 3: I mean the Buccaneers have really found their footing. They've

565
00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 3: won four straight, as you mentioned, and over the last

566
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 3: two weeks they've beaten the Packers and the Jaguars, two

567
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:22,679
Speaker 3: respectable teams, by a combined thirty two points. Meanwhile, the

568
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 3: Saints have lost for their last six, and the two

569
00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 3: wins came against the Panthers and the Giants. And back

570
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:32,640
Speaker 3: in Week four, the Buccaneers handled the Saints really easily

571
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,119
Speaker 3: twenty six to nine, and that was before the Bucks

572
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:37,840
Speaker 3: did find their footing. So I think they're going to

573
00:27:37,880 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 3: take care of business and I'm happy to lay the points.

574
00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,159
Speaker 3: The only thing that gives me slight pause is that

575
00:27:43,200 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 3: the Saints have that extra three days of rest in

576
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 3: prep time after playing the Thursday night game last week.

577
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 1: Sam the Bucks were convincing thirty to twelve on Christmas

578
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 1: Eve here against the Jags. I mean, it just kind

579
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,200
Speaker 1: of feels like things are going their way. They found

580
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: their quarterback in Baker Mayfield. That reclamation project has worked

581
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 1: for them the Saints. As Fitz said, it does have

582
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 1: some extra time, but does that even matter with the

583
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 1: Saints team at this point.

584
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 2: I don't think it does. But I do like the

585
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 2: over in this game. I think both offenses, the Bucks

586
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: offense again, Baker Mayfield playing really great football right now.

587
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 2: It's cool to see him sort of rejuvenate his career there.

588
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 2: It sounds like they want to keep him past this

589
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 2: year as well. And the Saints' offense is great at

590
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,400
Speaker 2: padding stats at the end of games and when they're

591
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 2: down big, they throw the balls on and can get

592
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: back into these games. And Tampa Bayed secondary is one

593
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 2: that is going to allow you to be able to

594
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 2: do that, So I think over forty two here is

595
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 2: my leaning.

596
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,640
Speaker 1: Right now, All right, next game on the slate, the

597
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles at home will take on the Arizona Cardinals.

598
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 1: Philly's favored by nine and a half on this one.

599
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised it's not a little larger. I'm worried

600
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,480
Speaker 1: this one is going to grow as the week rolls on.

601
00:28:57,640 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 1: Forty seven and a half is the total plus four

602
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: fifty on the Arizona money line. Sam, where did you

603
00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 1: have this game just out of curiosity in your projections,

604
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 1: because it feels like this one would have been at

605
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 1: double digits but it hasn't quite hit there yet.

606
00:29:11,320 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. So this one was at minus twelve in favor

607
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: of the Eagles before the game yesterday and now is

608
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 2: down to minus nine and a half. And the game

609
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:27,320
Speaker 2: between the Eagles and the Giants, it felt like different

610
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 2: parts of the Eagles team clicked at different times, Like

611
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 2: the defense played well for a little bit and then

612
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 2: the offense played well, but it just never all happened

613
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 2: at once. That said, the Cardinals are not even with

614
00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray, They're just not that great. I think Philadelphia

615
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 2: is going to be able to take care of business here.

616
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 2: I'm not laying either side in just this could be

617
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 2: a just a weird game.

618
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 1: I kind of understand that, all right. The Rams are

619
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 1: going to travel to New York next week for Week seventeen.

620
00:29:58,480 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: They are going to be six and a half point

621
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: favorite when they do to face the Giants forty two

622
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: with the consensus number plus two thirty five on the

623
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: Giants money line, the Giants are five and ten the

624
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 1: Rams are eight and seven. It feels like two teams,

625
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 1: you know that have obviously gone in a different direction

626
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 1: this season. So Sam, that being said, you've seen the

627
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 1: early value in this line.

628
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, give me the Rams. They are one of the

629
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 2: hottest teams on offense right now. Matthew Stafford is playing

630
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 2: quarterback is as well as any other in the league

631
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 2: right now. They'll get the extra rest having played on

632
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,160
Speaker 2: Thursday night, and the Giants are on a short week

633
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 2: as well, having played on Monday afternoons. So I think

634
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 2: Stafford's going to be able to take care of business

635
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:38,760
Speaker 2: against the Giants again. Kyron Williams playing extremely well, so

636
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: I don't see how the Giants are able to stop

637
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 2: this Rams offense.

638
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 1: The two greatest waiver wire pickups of twenty twenty three,

639
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,560
Speaker 1: Kyron Williams and Pookin Takua on the same team. Patty,

640
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:51,000
Speaker 1: It's been quite a season for the Rams here and

641
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 1: they are getting hot at the right time. So do

642
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,840
Speaker 1: you think fits that you have that same confidence that

643
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 1: Sam does here that they can go on the road

644
00:30:57,720 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: here with the six and a half and take care

645
00:30:59,000 --> 00:31:00,160
Speaker 1: of business against the Giants?

646
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 3: Not quite as much. If I were going to bet

647
00:31:03,160 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 3: this one, that is who I would bet. But it's

648
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 3: just a little too tall for me to do that,

649
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,560
Speaker 3: especially after the Giants were able to and we talked

650
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 3: about the Eagles, like, the Giants just hung around in

651
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 3: that game and refused to be extinguished and wound up

652
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 3: getting the covers a double digit underdog. So like, I

653
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 3: kind of think they can keep this one close. I

654
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 3: just don't want to touch it. I mean, I think

655
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 3: the offense better.

656
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: Than the Eagles offense right now, because I think it

657
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 1: is yes, yeah, okay.

658
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 4: No question.

659
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 3: The Eagles passing game has struggled for a couple of

660
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 3: months now.

661
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a funny thing to ask that question, but like,

662
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 1: I think it needed to be rhetorically asked, because I

663
00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 1: think all three of us agree that's the case. So

664
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: if they kind of, you know, just kind of backdoored

665
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 1: last week that we're only talking about six and a

666
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 1: half here, that feels like a long day at the

667
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: office maybe for the New York Giants, but I think

668
00:31:55,480 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 1: we're all pretty confident with the Rams have done recently.

669
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 1: What about Houston and Tennessee situation here? Always a tough

670
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 1: one here Houston at home. We don't know the CJ.

671
00:32:04,720 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 1: Stroud status minus three and a half their favorite against

672
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: Tennessee forty two and a half is the number plus

673
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 1: one fifty five on the money line? Fits Is this

674
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 1: a stay away until you have clarity when it comes

675
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 1: to the Houston Texans QB situation this week?

676
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:17,800
Speaker 5: Yeah?

677
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 3: I mean, if anything, Joe, I think, like maybe you

678
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 3: want to get this now before we get word on

679
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 3: C Like I have to imagine Stroud is back this week,

680
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 3: but they.

681
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 1: Have said it's a very it's one of the more

682
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 1: serious quarterback concussions, is what I read that they've had

683
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 1: all year. But to your point too, it's been a

684
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:35,640
Speaker 1: few weeks now.

685
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 4: So yeah, very tricky situation, that's the thing.

686
00:32:38,720 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 3: But I guess even if Stroud is back, like, I

687
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 3: don't have the same warm and fuzzy feeling about the

688
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 3: Texans that I had a month ago.

689
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 4: You know what I mean?

690
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 3: So maybe just laying off this one is the right move,

691
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 3: because if we don't get Stroud, then all of a

692
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 3: sudden three and a half points does not look like

693
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 3: a bargain by any means.

694
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,160
Speaker 1: Are you where fits as Sam on this one where

695
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 1: you want to take it now before you get clarity

696
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 1: about this laming changing if Stroud does play in this

697
00:33:02,280 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: one getting a little tighter, I don't.

698
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 2: Want to touch it all because I don't even think

699
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 2: we know who's going to be playing quarterback on the

700
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 2: other side of the ball for three points. And while

701
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 2: I don't think Tannehill to Levis changes the line that much,

702
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 2: the variability in Levis's play is much wider than it

703
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 2: is for Ryan Tannehill. So I think again, if Levis plays,

704
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 2: then I'd want to again try to maybe target some

705
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 2: all spreads for the Titans in favor of Tennessee. But

706
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,480
Speaker 2: I'm not touching this game until we know more about

707
00:33:37,480 --> 00:33:39,040
Speaker 2: the quarterbacks, all.

708
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:41,480
Speaker 1: Right, San fran Washington Boy. If ever, there was a

709
00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 1: perfect opponent for a team that just came off a

710
00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 1: bad loss on a prime time holiday game, it's the

711
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders. That's what you want to see if you're

712
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 1: the forty nine ers. I mean, the Commander's just got

713
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 1: their buck kicked by the Jets. I can't imagine what

714
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 1: kind of pain they're going to be involved in. What

715
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 1: do you think the team total is going to be

716
00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 1: for this game? Here? Sam? Forty nine ers a third

717
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 1: even a half points favorites forty eight and a half

718
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: is the number plus six hundred for the Washington Commander upset.

719
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 2: Now.

720
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 1: I know Washington sometimes shows up in weird games they

721
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 1: have this year at certain junctures, just as the Eagles.

722
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 1: But that being said, San fran is a lot to

723
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 1: handle for Washington. They struggled with Breeze Hall. I can't

724
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 1: imagine all the overs on Christian McCaffrey. Is that just

725
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 1: the approach for this one? Sam?

726
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think Kyle Shanahan's just going to

727
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 2: get all of his frustration out on against his former team.

728
00:34:29,880 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 2: I kind of want to know who's going to be

729
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 2: starting for Washington in this game. I think if if

730
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 2: they do go with Jacoby Bressett. I think there could

731
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:41,600
Speaker 2: be a little bit of value on the Commanders because

732
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 2: he has not played terribly. I mean, I think he

733
00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 2: raises the floor for Washington a little bit. And again

734
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:54,400
Speaker 2: we've seen San Francisco's defense against some competent teams can

735
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 2: can have some success and potentially keep it close. So

736
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 2: I yeah, just look at Christian McCaffrey overs.

737
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:05,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, Christian McAffrey overs. Do you think if Jacoby Brissett

738
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 1: was the quarterback of the Jets or the Falcons all

739
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: year they'd be playoff teams? Because I do with those defenses,

740
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,799
Speaker 1: and that just goes to you know, they sat on

741
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 1: Brissett and they are a four win team at the

742
00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 1: trade deadline, and I didn't understand why that wasn't the

743
00:35:19,400 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 1: piece that everybody was going for. Why maybe the Commanders

744
00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,360
Speaker 1: didn't want to give him up. It's just so strange

745
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 1: to me because I think those teams would have really

746
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:29,320
Speaker 1: benefited from Brissett, who is a good leader, a likable

747
00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:31,320
Speaker 1: guy in the clubhouse. Everybody seems to like him in

748
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:35,439
Speaker 1: the locker room. And again another Stefanski quarterback last year

749
00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: that somehow found a way to win games and keep

750
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 1: them relevant for longer than maybe the Brown should have been.

751
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:41,800
Speaker 1: Stefanski's a great coach. I don't think he gets just

752
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 1: the thing.

753
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 2: If Washington plays Pressett all year, they're probably a playoff team.

754
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:47,759
Speaker 2: Are They're at least in contentient for a wild car.

755
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 1: So maybe at this point maybe it's not impossible. Fits

756
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 1: your thoughts on this potential ugly situation here for the

757
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:56,479
Speaker 1: Commanders and forty nine.

758
00:35:56,480 --> 00:35:58,959
Speaker 4: Ers, I think we do see Brissett this week.

759
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 3: I don't think they can run on Sam Howell, who

760
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 3: over his last three games, I'm not sure Sam Howell

761
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:06,879
Speaker 3: has completed even forty percent of his passes the last

762
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 3: three games, he has been.

763
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:08,880
Speaker 4: A hot mess.

764
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 3: And I don't like touching games where the road favorite

765
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 3: is favored by like two touchdowns. It's just way too

766
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 3: many points. As Sam said, if it is Brissett, maybe

767
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 3: there's a little bit of value on the Commanders here,

768
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 3: but like I just think, like, I'm not sure what's

769
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 3: going on with brock party. I don't think we're going

770
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 3: to get two terrible games in a row. And heaven knows,

771
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 3: this forty nine Ers offense could just shred this paper

772
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 3: mache Commander's defense to ribbons.

773
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 4: But yeah, I just don't want to bet.

774
00:36:45,719 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 3: I'm not laying the points here, and I'm not really

775
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 3: anxious to bet the Commanders either. But by the way, Joe,

776
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:55,840
Speaker 3: like the Commanders really weren't thumped by the Jets. It

777
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 3: took a last second field goal basically, and then they

778
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:00,040
Speaker 3: hung pretty.

779
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 1: Tough the week. The first part of that game was

780
00:37:02,760 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: just wacky, all right, Oh they were getting crushed. They

781
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 1: were like that. There was just so much energy in

782
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 1: that building too, which just it was so bizarre, like

783
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 1: Roberts fall there, just poor guy.

784
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 3: But like Washington is not laying down this season, Like

785
00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 3: they played the Rams top two weeks ago and they

786
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 3: came back against the Jets when they could have just

787
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 3: wave the white flag in that game. So yeah, I

788
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 3: think a lot of people think the forty nine ers

789
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:28,479
Speaker 3: are going to be really steamed after losing this big

790
00:37:28,520 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 3: game and everything, and they're just going to crush this

791
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 3: overmatched opponent.

792
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,320
Speaker 4: But like, this is just too many points.

793
00:37:33,480 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 1: I agree, it's to It's a lot of points. So

794
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 1: it does make me scared. That's why I keep saying,

795
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 1: give me the all purpose Christian McCaffrey yards and two touchdowns.

796
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 1: What can I get at the two touchdowns for Christian McCaffrey.

797
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 1: I'll take that those twos I want.

798
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:49,440
Speaker 3: I'm really excited about going against him in a championship

799
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 3: game in fantasy next week.

800
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, get it that way.

801
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 1: At least you're still alive. All my teams are dead now,

802
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 1: all right, Let's go to Pittsburgh and Seattle. Seas eight

803
00:37:57,120 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 1: and seven, And so the Pittsburgh Steelers talk about looking good.

804
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers coming out strong with some energy over the

805
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,439
Speaker 1: Christmas holiday. They are going to go to Seattle. They're

806
00:38:06,440 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 1: gonna be three and a half point underdogs there. Over

807
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 1: on the consensus betting pros line, forty one and a

808
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 1: half is the total for this game, plus one fifty

809
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 1: for the Steelers. So Mason Rudolph has come to town.

810
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 1: FITZI your thoughts on this Steeler Seattle contest for Week seventeen.

811
00:38:21,840 --> 00:38:23,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, the Steelers have been one of the most

812
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 3: unpredictable teams in the league all season, and I feel

813
00:38:27,160 --> 00:38:29,359
Speaker 3: very vindicated that I finally was on the right side

814
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 3: of them this past week.

815
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,440
Speaker 4: Taking the money line against the Bengals.

816
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 3: I just felt like they weren't going to lose that game.

817
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,759
Speaker 3: I don't know, I just had this feeling. But now

818
00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 3: we get a game between two of the most unpredictable

819
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 3: teams in the league. So I'm not touching this one, no, thanks.

820
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 3: Like Steelers versus Seahawks, two teams you never know what

821
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 3: you're gonna get from game to game, like wide wide

822
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 3: range of outcomes. For this one, I'm not betting it.

823
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 1: It does feel like four outcome game. It's interesting too,

824
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 1: because you look at Mason Rudolph, he had a two

825
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 1: touchdown game. You know, the big play to Pickens early

826
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 1: on certainly kind of set the tone of this one.

827
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 1: But it's funny because it's as many two touchdown games

828
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 1: as Kenny Picketts had the entire season, which is also

829
00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 1: I think sad and depressing. So four outcome games certainly

830
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 1: exists here. But Sam, does the data point to one

831
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 1: of these outcomes be more likely for you?

832
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:25,919
Speaker 2: No? Because to Fits's point, these are two teams that

833
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 2: I can't get a rena on them. I mean, they're

834
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 2: just all over the place and putting up stinkers against

835
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:36,040
Speaker 2: bad teams, putting out great performances against good teams. I mean,

836
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 2: I think for me, this means to bet the under,

837
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 2: because again, you don't really know what you're going to

838
00:39:41,080 --> 00:39:43,720
Speaker 2: get out of these offenses. The Pittsburgh defense, I think

839
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 2: still has some juice, and the Seahawks offense, to what

840
00:39:47,239 --> 00:39:50,320
Speaker 2: I was saying, has struggled at points. The Seahawks defense

841
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:54,160
Speaker 2: has played pretty decently the last couple of weeks as well,

842
00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 2: held again what we think is an underwhelming Philadelphia offense

843
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 2: to just twenty point. So I like to underhear I

844
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 2: think these are two teams that just can't both figure

845
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:07,319
Speaker 2: it out. At the same time.

846
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 1: Speaking of not being able to figure it out, I

847
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 1: give you the Kansas City Chiefs. We are now nine

848
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,319
Speaker 1: and six. They're going to be under that win total,

849
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:15,279
Speaker 1: I believe for the year now right, I'm pretty sure

850
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:19,399
Speaker 1: or at least push so nine and six for them

851
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,359
Speaker 1: taking on Cincinnati, who maybe the Cinderella has lost their

852
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 1: slipper here. Kansas City's seven and a half point favorites

853
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:27,919
Speaker 1: at home forty five and a half is the number

854
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:29,960
Speaker 1: plus two eighty five on the Cincinnati side of the

855
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 1: money line. Sam, I mean, we keep sitting here every

856
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 1: week and we think, Okay, this can't last. It can't last,

857
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 1: it can't last. But this offense just cannot seem to work,

858
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 1: and there were times where it was starting to look good.

859
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey had some big plays in that first half

860
00:40:42,640 --> 00:40:44,760
Speaker 1: of that game, you know, and then the Pacheco injury

861
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:46,840
Speaker 1: happened and he came out. I don't know, It's just

862
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,160
Speaker 1: Kansas City might just be having one of those years,

863
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 1: and it happens, It's happened. I mean even in the

864
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:54,360
Speaker 1: Patriot dynasty. I remember one year that that happened to

865
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:56,839
Speaker 1: It was a year after they they lost the Super

866
00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 1: Bowl and they just could not get back on track.

867
00:41:00,000 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 1: And it kind of feels like that's where Kansas City is.

868
00:41:01,719 --> 00:41:03,120
Speaker 1: No matter what they do, they can't get out of

869
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:04,680
Speaker 1: their own way. But what do you think you're seven

870
00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 1: and a half. Is that too many points for the

871
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:08,879
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs to be favored in a game, even

872
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 1: at home?

873
00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean this weirdest this year is so weird. Man.

874
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:18,840
Speaker 2: This Cincinnati defense is terrible, but the Chiefs offense just

875
00:41:19,360 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 2: lacks explosiveness and consistency. But man, this Chiefs defense is legit.

876
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,160
Speaker 2: I mean they've a lot of success rate over forty

877
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 2: percent just once in the last six weeks to Jordan

878
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 2: Love have my Dad. I don't like either side here.

879
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 2: I think the under again forty five points is a lot.

880
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:40,600
Speaker 2: I think the Chiefs will be able to hold down

881
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 2: this Bengals offense, especially if they don't have Jamar Chase again.

882
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:47,879
Speaker 2: And the Chiefs offense, to me, I want to look

883
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:51,640
Speaker 2: at the Travis Kelcey receiving props because the Bengals have

884
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:56,440
Speaker 2: been terrible against tight ends all season. But man, I

885
00:41:56,480 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 2: can't trust this Chief's offense right now. It's crazy because

886
00:42:01,120 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 2: if this chief Chiefs offense looks like even the worst

887
00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 2: version of itself from the last five years, this team

888
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 2: is just a gauntlet because of how well their defense

889
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 2: is playing. But that's not the case, So give me

890
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 2: the under in this game.

891
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 1: Chase is probably unlikely for this We heard he was

892
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: gonna be as multiple weeks, so I don't anticipate having Chase.

893
00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 1: Is that just the difference maker in the seven and

894
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 1: a half here?

895
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 4: Not necessarily?

896
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't think the Chiefs should be favored

897
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 3: by more than a touchdown against anyone other than the

898
00:42:31,600 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 3: dregs of the league right now. The Bengals are not

899
00:42:34,200 --> 00:42:37,759
Speaker 3: the dregs of the league by any stretch of the imagination. Like, yeah,

900
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,680
Speaker 3: they've got problems on defense, and I think we saw

901
00:42:40,719 --> 00:42:42,839
Speaker 3: that Jake Browning is not going to be, you know,

902
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 3: someone's quarterback of the future.

903
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 4: But I still like the.

904
00:42:47,840 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 3: Bengals and the points here because we have seen this

905
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 3: chief passing game struggled to such an extent, like since

906
00:42:53,760 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 3: coming out of there by Patrick Mahomes is averaging six

907
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 3: point four yards per pass attempt. That is Mac Jones.

908
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 3: That is a mac Jones number. Like, this passing game

909
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 3: is not working right now. So I'm inclined to take

910
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 3: the Bengals, But I do agree with Sam the best

911
00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,399
Speaker 3: bet in this game is the under far and away.

912
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 1: Okay, the under far and away? All right? What about

913
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 1: Denver hosting the Chargers? Denver's five and a half point

914
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:20,719
Speaker 1: favorites at home against the Chargers thirty eight and a

915
00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: half is number for this one plus two hundred fits.

916
00:43:23,040 --> 00:43:25,360
Speaker 1: Is there any value on the Chargers here with considering

917
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 1: the way Denver's looking in the last couple of weeks.

918
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 3: Oh, maybe this game is just such a weird thing

919
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:35,040
Speaker 3: to say, but I just right, like, are the Chargers

920
00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:37,120
Speaker 3: the team that got stuffed into a locker by the

921
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:38,279
Speaker 3: Raiders two weeks ago?

922
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 4: Or are they the team that.

923
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 3: Was surprisingly Plucky in Week sixteen, Like I don't know,

924
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 3: and I don't know where the Broncos are.

925
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:46,319
Speaker 4: I just don't want to touch this game at all.

926
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 1: These are two tough teams to invest in.

927
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:48,279
Speaker 2: Sam.

928
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 1: That being said, is that a walk away for you?

929
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 2: I think I slightly lean the Chargers here if this

930
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 2: crosses six, because again to what you guys are saying,

931
00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 2: the Chargers played pretty decent against Buffalo, and Denver played

932
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 2: about as poor as you could against New England. I

933
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:07,919
Speaker 2: know they made the game look close at the end there,

934
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:09,959
Speaker 2: but they had a negative two point one percent pass

935
00:44:10,040 --> 00:44:14,920
Speaker 2: right over expectation against a Patriots defense that we know

936
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,600
Speaker 2: is strong against the run. Denver wants to run the ball,

937
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 2: but they're not really good at it. They're negative point

938
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,560
Speaker 2: nine to eight EP per rush is sixteenth in the

939
00:44:24,640 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 2: league this year. So I think if Denver runs the ball,

940
00:44:28,440 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 2: you know, keeps this total lower, Chargers have enough to

941
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:35,759
Speaker 2: keep it close. So if this crosses six, then give

942
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:37,839
Speaker 2: me the Chargers, all.

943
00:44:37,800 --> 00:44:41,000
Speaker 1: Right, last one here, your Green Bay Packers, gentlemen are

944
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 1: going to travel to Minnesota. Minnesota, another heartbreaking loss for them.

945
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:47,320
Speaker 1: It's nothing but heartbreak for the seven and eight Vikings.

946
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 1: They are two point home favorite. Sam Forty five and

947
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 1: a half is the total on this game, plus one

948
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:53,480
Speaker 1: oh five on the green Bay Packers side. So the

949
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 1: question is it's practically a pick, and what side do

950
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 1: you want to be picking.

951
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 2: I mean, I want to be picking the pack Hers

952
00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 2: because how much, he said. But the biggest concern here

953
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 2: is the injuries on offense on both sides. It looks

954
00:45:06,640 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 2: like Minnesota could be without both Jordan Addison and TJ. Hockinson.

955
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:13,879
Speaker 2: Green Bay is also dealing with injuries on offense. There

956
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:16,719
Speaker 2: might be without Christian Watson and Jayden Reid missed the

957
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 2: game this past week. Jordan Love has been okay against

958
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 2: the Blitz this year, which Brian Flores loves to do.

959
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 2: He's ninth in PFF passing grade against the Blitz. I

960
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:31,239
Speaker 2: made this Minnesota by two, So I'm running the line

961
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:32,879
Speaker 2: and don't see any value right now?

962
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:36,239
Speaker 1: All right, FITZI any value in this practical pick him

963
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:37,840
Speaker 1: for the Monday Night contest?

964
00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,399
Speaker 4: No, I don't think so. And part of the reason why, like.

965
00:45:41,400 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 1: I Mars Sunday Night contest no Monday this week because

966
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:45,800
Speaker 1: of college football, pardon me.

967
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:49,240
Speaker 3: So my inclination would probably be to take the Vikings

968
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 3: just because of how badly the Packers defense has been playing.

969
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 3: But then again, Nick Mullins is such a wild card.

970
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:57,400
Speaker 3: I mean, this is a man who truly does not

971
00:45:57,520 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 3: have a conscience when it comes to throwing down field.

972
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 3: Like he he threw four interceptions in that game this

973
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:08,080
Speaker 3: past weekend. He probably could have thrown eight interceptions in

974
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,240
Speaker 3: that game. Like I don't know how many turnover worthy

975
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:12,799
Speaker 3: plays he was great at as having by PFF. I

976
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 3: can't wait to see what that number is because I

977
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 3: guarantee you it's higher than four. But that makes me

978
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 3: not want to bet either side. But I kind of

979
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:26,280
Speaker 3: like the over here despite the injuries on offense. Sam

980
00:46:26,400 --> 00:46:28,560
Speaker 3: was talking about, Yes, Jordan Addison's hurt, but I think

981
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:31,640
Speaker 3: kJ Osborne can step in and torch this Packers defense

982
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 3: just as well as Jordan Addison probably, And like with

983
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 3: the Packers, I don't think Love has really missed a

984
00:46:39,560 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 3: beat missing his wide receiver like he just spreads it

985
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,240
Speaker 3: around no matter what. So if it's not Christian Watson

986
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 3: and Jayden Reied, it's gonna be Romeo Dobbs, Dontavian Wis,

987
00:46:48,280 --> 00:46:51,800
Speaker 3: Malik Eith, whoever he needs to get it to Tucker Kraft,

988
00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 3: so give me the over here.

989
00:46:54,400 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 4: I'm not interested in either side.

990
00:46:56,239 --> 00:46:58,799
Speaker 1: There you go, and make sure you're interested, obviously in

991
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:02,000
Speaker 1: continuing to follow along here with all this line movement.

992
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: Make sure that you download the Betting Pros app, that

993
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 1: you are checking out the game notifications. You can stay

994
00:47:07,360 --> 00:47:08,920
Speaker 1: on top with all the line alerts so you know

995
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 1: exactly where the movement is happening with these games. And

996
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:14,320
Speaker 1: remember if you haven't already downloaded the app now because

997
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 1: you get three free days of premium on iOS. Great

998
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 1: weekend to do it. You've got all the college football

999
00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 1: bowl stuff happening, the college playoffs, NFL Action. Great time

1000
00:47:23,160 --> 00:47:25,040
Speaker 1: to utilize the tools of Betting Pros. And don't forget

1001
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:27,279
Speaker 1: if you're watching here on the YouTube, subscribe drop the

1002
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 1: comments below and you just might win a one year

1003
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 1: free premium upgrade to the best betting tools on the planet.

1004
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 1: Speaking of the best betting tools on the planet, I

1005
00:47:35,160 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 1: love these two guys, I kid, I love you, Sam Hoppin,

1006
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:41,000
Speaker 1: Papitz Morris. Great stuff as always, gentlemen, enjoy the rest

1007
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 1: of your week. That'll do it for us. But the

1008
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:45,360
Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for Sam and fits.

1009
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:48,280
Speaker 1: I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids, Happy

1010
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 1: New Year.

1011
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

1012
00:47:52,000 --> 00:47:54,360
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1013
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1014
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1015
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:00,759
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1016
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1017
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:07,040
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