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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 1: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 1: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 1: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 1: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 1: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. He's out

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Speaker 1: of the University of Virginia and the Dardens School, and

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Speaker 1: both Paul and I agree that Leland Miller owns a

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Speaker 1: high ground on analysis of China. His claim to fame

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Speaker 1: is micro analysis away from the macro blah blah blah.

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Speaker 1: He is with China Beige book. Leland, You've got some

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Speaker 1: great slides that say they're working on this. What does

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Speaker 1: the Leland Miller jump start to clear their property market disaster.

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Speaker 2: Well, I don't think they're going to clear the property

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Speaker 2: market disaster at least for not years and years and years.

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Speaker 2: And part of that is because this isn't just chaos.

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Speaker 2: This isn't just the economy unwinding. This is an intentional

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Speaker 2: effort by the government to de leverage the property sector

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Speaker 2: in a big way so that property will no longer

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Speaker 2: be this powerful driving force for growth going forward because

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Speaker 2: they're worried about the credit angle. They're worried about nonperforming loans,

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Speaker 2: so they're not worried about growth. They're worried about having

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Speaker 2: a more secure and state of economy.

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Speaker 1: I used to be there twice a year, sometimes even

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Speaker 1: three times a year at a damn plaque at the

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Speaker 1: Demandrain Hotel in Hong Kong, Leland.

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Speaker 3: That world is gone and the new world.

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Speaker 1: The one thing that stayed the same is their effort

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Speaker 1: to come over to a consumer society. Have they even

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Speaker 1: begun to make the shift toward a more Western market

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Speaker 1: society from what we knew twenty years ago?

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Speaker 2: Now not even closed and they're actually on a treadmill

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Speaker 2: walking backwards. And here's why you can talk about shifting

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Speaker 2: from investment to consumption. And they have been talking about

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Speaker 2: shifting from investment to consumption. But investment has gone down

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Speaker 2: and consumption has not improved. It hasn't grown. The consumption

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Speaker 2: incentives in society have not increased whatsoever. In fact, they've

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Speaker 2: gone the other way, because what you have to do

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Speaker 2: in order to empower consumer is to give consumers more

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Speaker 2: spending power, to stop financially suppressing the consumer, financially suppressing households.

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Speaker 2: The entire system is based around guiding advantages to the

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Speaker 2: state to making sure that that the consumer is not

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Speaker 2: better off. And so they have actually haven't moved in

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Speaker 2: any way in this one direction. It's been a marketing

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Speaker 2: campaign for about twenty years now.

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Speaker 4: So Leland, realistically, what can the government do here? I mean,

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Speaker 4: we've seen the US government and other Western governments they

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Speaker 4: can have a material impact on an economy through monetary policy,

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Speaker 4: fiscal policy. What can the Chinese government effectively do there

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Speaker 4: for the economy.

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Speaker 2: I'm going to say something that's gonna surprise you guys

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Speaker 2: and probably everyone else. They don't think they're doing that

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Speaker 2: bad a job. And here's why I say this. They

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Speaker 2: don't really care about the stock market. Wall Street cares

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Speaker 2: about the stock market, so they write a lot of

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Speaker 2: notes about how important the stock market is. Chechimpain doesn't

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Speaker 2: care about the stock market when it looks at when

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Speaker 2: you look at the economy, they used to prioritize high

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Speaker 2: levels of growth.

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Speaker 5: They're not doing that anymore.

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Speaker 2: They're worried about national security priorities, like creating a chip ecosystem,

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Speaker 2: domestic hip ecosystem, finding ways around the US dollar payment

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Speaker 2: system in the future. That's what keeps them up at night.

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Speaker 2: They're not worried about high levels of growth. So the

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Speaker 2: fact that their economy is slowing quite dramatically, that isn't

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Speaker 2: a major problem. What they have to make sure they

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Speaker 2: don't do is have too precipitous, a sudden fall off

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Speaker 2: in any of these areas of the economy that creates

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Speaker 2: a doom loop of confidence that gets them into trouble.

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Speaker 2: But significantly slowing growth, significantly slowing stock market, none of

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Speaker 2: these things are party one for them anymore.

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Speaker 4: So President g is there any I mean, to the

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Speaker 4: extent that this economic you know, unease continues. Is there

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Speaker 4: any threat to him or his position in the government

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Speaker 4: that could have I guess wider ramifications.

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Speaker 5: It's hard to imagine.

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Speaker 2: So obviously there's a point at which so many things

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Speaker 2: get so bad that that there's probably is a danger line.

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Speaker 2: But I think it's impossible to see that from outside

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Speaker 2: the country. It's probably impossible to see that from one

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Speaker 2: hundred feet away. So yeah, of course that's that's in

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Speaker 2: the distance, but it's it's very unlikely we see any

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Speaker 2: of this affecting Chijan Pig.

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Speaker 5: Like I said, the.

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Speaker 2: Party thinks it's doing a good job. It thinks it's

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Speaker 2: steering it towards a healthier course going forward, even though

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Speaker 2: foreign investors aren't very happy right now, one of.

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Speaker 1: Your slides pervades the gloom that's out there, and you

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Speaker 1: use loan demand as an example. Away from what Paul

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Speaker 1: and I know, away from Hong Kong, maybe six blocks

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Speaker 1: of Beijing, maybe down the bund in shanga Hi, away

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Speaker 1: from all that is China distressed.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that the confidence was shattered under COVID

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Speaker 2: zero and it has never returned. So you know, last

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Speaker 2: year we didn't see this. You know, there was never

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Speaker 2: the big rally and then there were but there's never

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Speaker 2: the catastrophic you know, collapse panic that none of that

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Speaker 2: was real in the middle of the year. But China's

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Speaker 2: weakening and firms don't want to invest, and they don't

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Speaker 2: want to borrow, and they don't want to hire, and

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Speaker 2: they don't want to do that because they don't like

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Speaker 2: the future that they're seeing.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So you know, John Taylor's out at Stanford dressed

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Speaker 1: like a raisin, and he's saying, Okay, this is what

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Speaker 1: you do in a recession, a slow down, et cetera.

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Speaker 1: Did they have those tools available that America had in

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Speaker 1: nineteen seventy four or nineteen eighty one. Do they have

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Speaker 1: the same tools we have?

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Speaker 2: They do, But there's some sort of dogmatic resistance against

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Speaker 2: consumer sid side stimulus.

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Speaker 5: You know, they don't seem to want to do that. Okay,

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Speaker 5: it's come on, Leland, it's a totalitarian regime.

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Speaker 1: They have to survive. I believe you lectured me that

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Speaker 1: they have to keep people employed, right, So don't they

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Speaker 1: lose the dogmatic at some.

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Speaker 5: Point, one would think.

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Speaker 2: But this would be a pretty good time to lose

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Speaker 2: that dogmatic right now. You know, they just keep pumping

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Speaker 2: more money into the supply side, try to, you know,

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Speaker 2: juice up more exports to get them out of the

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Speaker 2: president the problem.

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Speaker 5: It just doesn't work.

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Speaker 2: But they haven't reversed course, at least not yet.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Leland, you know, certainly here in the US the

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Speaker 4: economy is driven by the consumer. Seventy percent of the

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Speaker 4: US economy's consumer driven. Give us a feel for how

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Speaker 4: it is in China, consumer versus manufacturing slash industrial. How

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Speaker 4: tough is it on the consumer there in China?

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Speaker 2: It's terrible because you know, the consumer doesn't you know,

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Speaker 2: the consumer has been disadvantaged due to the way that

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Speaker 2: China's economic system is set up. You know, one of

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Speaker 2: the ways that we've always talked about, you know, chijinping moving.

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Speaker 2: If you really truly wanted to incentivise, you know, the

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Speaker 2: rise of consumption, then you know, you shift assets from

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Speaker 2: the state to the private sector to households. You you, you,

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Speaker 2: you know, you improve the you you know, you strengthen

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Speaker 2: the currency so there's more persing power. You create this

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Speaker 2: a much more robust social safety that all those things

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Speaker 2: would give some comfort to the consumer to be able

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Speaker 2: to spend more if they if they liked what they

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Speaker 2: saw down the road. Right, none of those things are

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Speaker 2: really being done, and so you know, you seeing a

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Speaker 2: consumer that just hapless and hiding from the world.

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Speaker 1: So what's your macro GDP call. I mean, you're the

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Speaker 1: king of micro You look at the electric grid outside

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Speaker 1: Shanghai down the industrial corridor. Forget about that what's your

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Speaker 1: GDP call.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, I think that for political reasons, they they

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Speaker 2: haven't been able to get away from the GDP target,

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Speaker 2: which they want to put in a four to five

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Speaker 2: percent range so that they're not shocking markets they're sliding down.

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Speaker 2: There's about a three year period in which I think

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Speaker 2: they're politically sensitive about having two precipitous a fall of GDP,

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Speaker 2: so they want to stick it somewhere in that four

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Speaker 2: percent range. For four to five percent range. I think

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Speaker 2: when we go beyond three years or so, we're gonna

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Speaker 2: see me seeing a much more precipitous fall off in growth,

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Speaker 2: and maybe the leadership doesn't care about faked it.

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Speaker 1: Any Leland, thank you for the brief. Leilany Miller the

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Speaker 1: best with us here with China of Asia. We're in

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Speaker 1: the middle of a great experiment and this guest is

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Speaker 1: the number one guest on the experiment we're doing worldwide

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg surveillance. Paul Suanian, Tom Keener committed to the

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Speaker 1: new distribution, which is YouTube. It's YouTube Bloomberg podcasts. They

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Speaker 1: gave me the numbers yesterday. I'm humbled at how it's growing.

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Speaker 1: We're starting from you know, it's a brand new nascent

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Speaker 1: Google YouTube thing. And this guy is the expert on

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Speaker 1: saying we're gonna watch TV, but this is the way

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Speaker 1: we're gonna watch it. This is the guy that goes

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Speaker 1: back to Madison Avenue and mad Men and all the

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Speaker 1: rest of it. And what Brian Weezer says, Paul, I'm sorry,

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Speaker 1: I know it's possiful on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely been reading his stuff, following his work for a

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Speaker 4: very long time. Brian Weezer, Madison Wall He's a principal there. Hey, Brian,

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Speaker 4: thanks so much for joining us here. I think last

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Speaker 4: night our good friends at Walt Disney Company had a

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Speaker 4: pretty solid quarter here. They laid out a path to

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Speaker 4: profitability for the streaming business. They announced a bunch of

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Speaker 4: new kind of deals with some sports streaming stuff.

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Speaker 6: What did you take away from Disney over the last

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Speaker 6: twelve hours.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, well, thanks for having me.

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Speaker 8: First of all, I don't really know fully what to

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Speaker 8: take away from that call yesterday, because there is a

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Speaker 8: bit of a bet the business approach that they might

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Speaker 8: be taking or not. It's hard to tell on this

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Speaker 8: sports app that they're trying to develop, And really I

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Speaker 8: think that's it can't be understand how potentially important it is.

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Speaker 8: It could be a nothing burger, so to speak, or

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Speaker 8: it could be an everything burger, because it's not clear

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Speaker 8: to me how exactly they're going to thread this needle

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Speaker 8: to figure out how they're going to find an elusive

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Speaker 8: group of people who both love sports enough that they're

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Speaker 8: willing to pay probably largish number for that service per month,

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Speaker 8: but they don't currently have pay TV. Yeah, I don't

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Speaker 8: know if this elusive creature exists. To get that person

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Speaker 8: to subscribe, they may have to reduce the price so

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Speaker 8: much that they accelerate the demise of their linear services.

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Speaker 4: It feels like, Brian, if you look across the media

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Speaker 4: landscape that you know it's just a matter of time

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Speaker 4: before the linear business as we know it, as we everybody,

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Speaker 4: all listeners and viewers grew up with that really is a.

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Speaker 6: Thing in the past. It has gone.

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Speaker 4: And it just feels like listening to the call the

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Speaker 4: last night from Disney that they've made that call and

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Speaker 4: they're going to go all in on this streaming business.

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Speaker 4: And I guess this deal with Paramount and Fox is

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Speaker 4: kind of an interview.

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Speaker 1: Who's the guy the activist going after Disney pelts and Pelts.

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Speaker 1: Pelts is saying there's a regulatory issue. I agree. I'm

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Speaker 1: an amateur in this, but I'm sorry the government's gonna

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Speaker 1: let all these people merge into one sports comedy fuck combine.

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Speaker 3: Poll.

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Speaker 6: What do you think, Brian?

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Speaker 4: I mean, I think do you think there is any

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Speaker 4: regulatory risks for some of these media companies coming together

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Speaker 4: with their sports programming at the very least?

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Speaker 8: I mean, this is one of the many, many unknowns

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Speaker 8: if in twenty eighteen, Let's remember the reason why Fox

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Speaker 8: sold this entertainment business to Disney, yep, was because of

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Speaker 8: their fear of Facebook investing in sports rights in India

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Speaker 8: initially and eventually everywhere else. That was the catalyst for

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Speaker 8: that transaction. And then Disney could not actually consummate the

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Speaker 8: transaction including all the rsns and the other sports properties,

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Speaker 8: right like, they couldn't because of this issue. And that

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Speaker 8: was in a Trump administration. It's not like the competition

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Speaker 8: is that much different than it was dead except Facebook's out,

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Speaker 8: Amazon's then much more, right, Well, so just settled.

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Speaker 1: Just because of time, Brian, some up here do you

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Speaker 1: think we are going to see this combination?

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Speaker 8: I have no idea. The fact that they didn't have.

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Speaker 8: We haven't really heard much from the distributors yet, right,

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Speaker 8: I see from the Well Journal that the sports leagues

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Speaker 8: were in the dark.

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Speaker 7: I really don't know how to take it.

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Speaker 1: Brian, I gotta rip up the script here. All my management,

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Speaker 1: all the people around me are saying, just shut up,

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Speaker 1: Tom and ask Brian about YouTube. Okay, Like here's you know,

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Speaker 1: Coco Melon. Okay, kids watch Coco Melan. I know this.

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Speaker 7: You know.

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Speaker 1: It's how I babysit. It's how I babysit. The grandchildren,

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Speaker 1: we watch Coco Melon. They used to watch Coco Melon

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Speaker 1: on Netflix. Now they watch Coco Melan on YouTube. I

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Speaker 1: got kids. Brian Weezer addicted to YouTube. We're doing YouTube

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Speaker 1: here at Bloomberg Surveillance. In five years, Brian Weezer was

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Speaker 1: the only game left in town.

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Speaker 7: YouTube no, but a big share of it.

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Speaker 8: I mean, I estimated this past week they spent maybe

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Speaker 8: twenty three billion dollars on content last year.

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Speaker 7: So you're getting a good chunk of that.

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Speaker 1: Well, I am. I mean, what do the streamers do?

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Speaker 1: What does Paul Sweeney's World do about YouTube?

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Speaker 8: I think it's an important let's call it. It's a

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Speaker 8: tenth of the media industry by itself, right, Like I

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Speaker 8: think it's just it's a really important compliment and for

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Speaker 8: a lot of people it's a primary way.

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Speaker 1: To gets like gun smoke, you know, I it's like

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Speaker 1: CBS and gun smoke.

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Speaker 4: Okay, Brian, You know, if I'm a Disney investor, am

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Speaker 4: I really primarily a theme park investor?

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Speaker 8: I don't think that's the catalyst right now. I think

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Speaker 8: that theme parks and I haven't really looked close to

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Speaker 8: the theme park business since I was nanamals covering the stock.

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Speaker 8: But it's it's an important part, but it's not the

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Speaker 8: story that's really driving it right now because so much

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Speaker 8: of their cash flows dependent on the TV business, which

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Speaker 8: goes back to your view and what exactly is this

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Speaker 8: inniche of going to be? Is it going to actually

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Speaker 8: take off? How much risk are they putting on themselves.

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Speaker 8: It's the right long term strategy to your point earlier,

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Speaker 8: and if you believe in like a fifty year business investment,

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Speaker 8: absolutely they should be doing this, but it doesn't mean

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Speaker 8: their economics are going to work out very well, which

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Speaker 8: was the issue with Disney.

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Speaker 1: Plus your thoughts on Super Bowl advertising, I mean, it

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Speaker 1: is a thing peaked out. I mean, Brian, what was

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Speaker 1: a seven I thought it was seven.

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Speaker 3: Million for a one minute, million a minute?

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Speaker 1: Brian, your thoughts as we go to the.

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Speaker 8: It's still an incredibly effective medium. It's still there is

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Speaker 8: nothing like it in terms of the reach capacity, the

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Speaker 8: water cool effect. It's really important that the campaigns around

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Speaker 8: the commercials are really strong and they're not just celebrity spectacles.

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Speaker 1: Brian, will you watch U on youtubet podcast? We need

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Speaker 1: one more person?

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Speaker 7: Absolutely, thank you because.

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Speaker 1: You know we're working on it.

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Speaker 3: Brian Weezer there, Netflix before the reh she's a.

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Speaker 1: Very big Yeah. That's actually wicked true. Yeah, yeah, Brian

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Speaker 1: Weezer there, Medicine Wall just just outstanding on all this

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Speaker 1: confluence of what we're living with each and every day.

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Speaker 1: Joining us now on radio, it's a sight to behold,

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Speaker 1: even better on YouTube. Wearing the garb of the Great

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Speaker 1: Willis of the San Francisco forty nine ers, The retiring

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Speaker 1: Christopher Allman joins us now from Kelsters. And what's important

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Speaker 1: here is with that ginormous hunk of money, he's delivered

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Speaker 1: a total return. Christopher, you have been instrumental in common

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Speaker 1: sense with big piles of money what's your number one

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Speaker 1: advice to the team that replaces you at Kelster's in June.

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Speaker 1: How do you handle those gazillions of dollars?

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Speaker 9: Well, Tom, first off, it's an incredible pleasure to speak

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Speaker 9: to you again, and thank you for letting me join

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Speaker 9: the show. I'm glad to be part of it. Thank

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Speaker 9: you for that kind of introduction. Number one piece of advice,

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Speaker 9: it's simple what you've always said, don't fight the Fed,

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Speaker 9: follow the Fed. And you know, I got to say

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Speaker 9: in here, Tom, the markets seem to be fine with

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Speaker 9: five percent.

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Speaker 10: They did stay there for a while.

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Speaker 6: So I mean, and Chris, that kind of goes to it.

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Speaker 4: I mean, we saw that performance that just amazed a

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Speaker 4: lot of people in November and December, and we've kind

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Speaker 4: of had a pretty solid January to start the year.

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Speaker 1: Here.

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Speaker 6: Did we take some of the twenty four performance late

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Speaker 6: last year?

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Speaker 7: Oh?

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Speaker 9: I got to think so, I mean, goodness, we got

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Speaker 9: way too far ahead, Paul. You saw that you know

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Speaker 9: we're expecting six cuts. I mean that basically implied that

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Speaker 9: we're gonna have a recession at twenty four.

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Speaker 10: Way too far ahead.

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Speaker 9: Market's got to be choppy in here, But I think

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Speaker 9: we realistically.

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Speaker 10: This week people are.

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Speaker 9: Asking themselves, Gee, could the Fed stay at five for

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Speaker 9: a good chunk of this year? And maybe that's okay.

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Speaker 9: We're hitting record highs, earnings are okay.

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Speaker 1: You started in the trenches at Sacramento, you went to

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Speaker 1: Washington State. Now you're running Kelster's with what's a total portfolio?

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Speaker 1: Got Chris.

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Speaker 6: Seven six billion times that's trillion, that's a billion. That's

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Speaker 6: all the state teachers. Yeah, I mean, so he's managing

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Speaker 6: the state teachers retirement money.

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Speaker 1: What do you do with the magnificent four, five and

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Speaker 1: six including the asterisk that it's the culture of your California.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you got to own them because it's what

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Speaker 1: your people are living out in California. What do you

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Speaker 1: do with a magnificent six?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, Tom, we're the market. I gave up on active

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Speaker 9: management a long time ago. We're active in small caps,

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Speaker 9: but in the US we're mostly passive.

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Speaker 10: We own the market, so we own.

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Speaker 1: Them, so you you own them? I mean, right now,

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Speaker 1: in active management, this is a huge issue folks, where

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Speaker 1: they're under own on Microsoft and Video, they're all moving

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Speaker 1: so fast. Can you keep up with? Correct ownership is

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Speaker 1: a passive investor Chris, are you always.

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Speaker 9: Behind No, we're right on spot on. I run it internally.

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Speaker 9: I have my own team, so they are one hundred

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Speaker 9: percent focused on it. They don't have to run ten

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Speaker 9: or twenty indexes. They've got their own accounts and we

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Speaker 9: nail it every day and they're right on top.

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Speaker 1: So important.

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Speaker 10: I'm worried.

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Speaker 9: So this feels a lot like the nifty to fifty

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Speaker 9: all the way back in the sixties seventies. It feels like, oh,

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Speaker 9: one oh two, But the earnings are real this time,

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Speaker 9: so it could stay this way for a while.

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Speaker 4: Hey, Chris, one of the concerns out there, one of

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Speaker 4: the headwinds out there, and I don't think people have

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Speaker 4: a real good handle on it.

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Speaker 6: It's commercial real estate and what it.

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Speaker 4: Means for the economy, what it means for the banks.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you've got some issues in some of your

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Speaker 4: markets out there in California, as we do here on

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Speaker 4: the East Coast. How do you and your team kind

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Speaker 4: of frame out commercial real estate? Is it big enough

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Speaker 4: to be material?

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Speaker 7: Oh?

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Speaker 10: Absolutely.

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Speaker 9: In fact, yesterday we ran at our risk Allocation Committee.

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Speaker 9: We talked about the mid center and mid size banks

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Speaker 9: that are heavily exposed to commercial real estate. But even

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Speaker 9: within commercial real estate, Paul, you got to think about it.

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Speaker 9: If they've got warehouses and apartments, they're okay. If it's

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Speaker 9: an office portfolio, then you've got to be very worried.

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Speaker 9: But I said last year on the radio, on your

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Speaker 9: show that I thought real estate would be down, commercial

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Speaker 9: office would be down about twenty percent. It's been about

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Speaker 9: that range.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 9: Downs have been slow. It's been dropping about five percent

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Speaker 9: a quarter. Our office portfolio has gotten hurt as well.

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Speaker 9: But in turn, real estate, while it was saft last year,

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Speaker 9: you have other parts of the four food groups, as

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Speaker 9: we like to say, that have done really, really well.

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Speaker 9: So you've really got to dig down within those banks

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Speaker 9: that are exposed to commercial real estate and figure out

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Speaker 9: what type and who's really exposed to office in the

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Speaker 9: B and the C city locations.

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Speaker 10: Those people are getting hurt.

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Speaker 1: Yep.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely so you and your team Chris based in Sacramento,

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Speaker 4: of course, the state capital, but you're awfully close to

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Speaker 4: Silicon Valley and a lot of folks are saying, boy,

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Speaker 4: those guys been kind of quiet in terms of venture capital,

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Speaker 4: private equity. You know, it's we talk a lot about AI.

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Speaker 4: Do you think We're going to see your friends down

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Speaker 4: in Silicon Valley get a little bit more active in

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Speaker 4: twenty four.

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Speaker 9: I think so I'm starting to see the private equity

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Speaker 9: market unfree so the first time, partly because they want

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Speaker 9: to raise money, so they've got to kick back some

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Speaker 9: distributions and not.

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Speaker 10: A few IPOs.

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Speaker 9: We had a little bit of merger Monday start up

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Speaker 9: in the fall. It needs to come back in here

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Speaker 9: for that market to really open up. But I think

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Speaker 9: you're going to continue to see innovation out of Silicon

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Speaker 9: Valley it is an amazing place, but innovation in Brooklyn

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Speaker 9: and in other spots of the USA as well. So

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Speaker 9: you're going to see some new ideas. But unfortunately, particularly

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Speaker 9: with AI, the biggest firms that can make the investment

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Speaker 9: are the ones that are going to dominate. So these

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Speaker 9: six seven, as Tom said, ARENA are going to continue

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Speaker 9: to grow and be the leaders.

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Speaker 1: Chris Salmon, I want you to talk about the greater

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Speaker 1: retirement failure of America from the Employment Retirement Income Security

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Speaker 1: Act of nineteen seventy four. As you know Roger Ferguson

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Speaker 1: at TIAT craft he has providing great leadership on this. If

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Speaker 1: you could amend the American retirement failure. What's the first

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Speaker 1: thing you'd.

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Speaker 9: Do, boy, I would try to aggregate either the assets

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Speaker 9: or the liabilities. I think that's really been the thing

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Speaker 9: that a defined benefit provides is where we lump together

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Speaker 9: the liabilities, spread it over people who live a really

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Speaker 9: long time and people who live in a short time.

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Speaker 9: The asset management side, you know, the four to one

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Speaker 9: K market generally trails us by a full percent.

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Speaker 10: By one hundred business points, mostly the fees.

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Speaker 1: Okay, but this is critical. Are you telling me to

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Speaker 1: find contribution is a failure and we've got to get

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Speaker 1: back to some hybrid contribution to find benefit program? Or

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Speaker 1: do we go back to what our parents knew?

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Speaker 9: Tom, we go back to a hybrid, we go back

440
00:21:58,840 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 9: to a mix. You know, the problem with the four

441
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 9: one K and Rogers spot on, and I've been saying

442
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:07,600
Speaker 9: it for years is people don't invest early enough. The

443
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 9: time value of money is powerful. Define benefit forces you

444
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,720
Speaker 9: to put money away the first day you start working.

445
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:14,640
Speaker 10: A four to one K.

446
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 9: An average kid starts with a minimum and doesn't start

447
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 9: putting money away until they're fifty and it's too late.

448
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,440
Speaker 9: The power of investing, and you know it is the time,

449
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 9: value of money. It's the eighth wonder of the world,

450
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 9: compounding of interest. So that's what we have on our side.

451
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 9: Professional management, aggregation of the liabilities. I've got over four

452
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,560
Speaker 9: hundred and fifty teachers that are over one hundred years.

453
00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 10: Old getting a pension.

454
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 9: Wow, and four one k Tom, like I said, you

455
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:44,639
Speaker 9: can outlive your money.

456
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 1: I got one minute left rock perty Could he do it?

457
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 1: You got to be kidding me. Last guy drafted in

458
00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 1: the NFL. You got to be rooting for the forty

459
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 1: nine ers.

460
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:53,640
Speaker 10: I mean, he's been amazing.

461
00:22:53,760 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 9: I don't know, Tom, the last two games have I'm

462
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,680
Speaker 9: still stressed from the last two games. We'll see which

463
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:01,959
Speaker 9: team shows up. It's I think it's gonna come down

464
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:07,240
Speaker 9: to the coaches. I'll take Shanahan over Spagnola. He's pretty good,

465
00:23:07,280 --> 00:23:10,920
Speaker 9: but I'm worried about Steve wilkeson our defense against Andy Reid.

466
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 10: Chris Alman, Patrick Mahomes.

467
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,239
Speaker 3: With William Gross rooting for the forty nine ers.

468
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 1: Chris Saleman, thank you so much for wisdom on America's

469
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 1: retirement at Kelster's today's front page headlines. She knows the

470
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 1: rock She's looking at under armour Lisa Matteo, what do

471
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 1: you go?

472
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 11: All right, we're talking about the Super Bowl?

473
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 6: What else?

474
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 10: Right?

475
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 6: Okay, so the.

476
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 1: Walks the Rock is in a box in the fifty

477
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:42,640
Speaker 1: yard line.

478
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,040
Speaker 6: Oh, most definitely.

479
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 3: I mean he's in one of those like Taylor boxes.

480
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:46,879
Speaker 10: I know.

481
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:48,680
Speaker 11: I'm waiting for the cutaway shots.

482
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 7: I'm just.

483
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 9: Too.

484
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 11: So here's the question for you I have for both

485
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 11: of you. Would you pay to watch a Super Bowl?

486
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:01,200
Speaker 11: They're talking about possible pay proof you options. Would you pay?

487
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,440
Speaker 4: It's just like peacock is yeah yeah, And I mean

488
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 4: Jason gay Uh at the Wall Street Journal has this

489
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:10,240
Speaker 4: article and it's he's plugged in.

490
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 6: But I don't know. I don't think it's a national treasure.

491
00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 6: You can't put it behind.

492
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 5: A paper like like like boxing.

493
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 3: Box six dollars.

494
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 11: Yes, you don't know.

495
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 1: Trust me. I know who Manipaccio is because there's a

496
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:29,360
Speaker 1: case of.

497
00:24:29,320 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 3: The beer from Manila that I have to drink.

498
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's right.

499
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:33,960
Speaker 10: I forgot get that.

500
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 4: But I can't imagine they would put this national pastime

501
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 4: of the super But they're.

502
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 11: Saying, you know what, it has the ability to reach

503
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 11: one hundred, it does.

504
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,159
Speaker 5: People super Well, oh my god, it.

505
00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 4: I don't know he should be given up all that

506
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 4: advertising one hundred and something.

507
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 6: They would probably.

508
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,400
Speaker 11: Keep the commercial because that's what people watch.

509
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is a beautiful business right here. The way

510
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:57,880
Speaker 6: it is don't necessas in my.

511
00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: Bedroom when the Western light comes in and it glances

512
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 1: off the portrait of Mannipecchio. It's just great. But I

513
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:05,119
Speaker 1: got next.

514
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 11: Okay, we talked about this yesterday. We had it was

515
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 11: Andrew Murphy from Jean Munster on about the Apple Vision Pro.

516
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 6: Okay, the headset.

517
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,640
Speaker 11: Now it went on sale, right he was talking about

518
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 11: how much it was, about thirty five hundred dollars. But

519
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 11: here's the thing. It's created a resale market. So now

520
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 11: you have Vision Pro showing up on some Asian marketplaces

521
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 11: asking prices as high as six thousand, three hundred dollars.

522
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 6: What do you think, I don't. I mean, it's this

523
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 6: scarcity value.

524
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 4: It's the early adopters, correct, you know, it's all the

525
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,120
Speaker 4: tech geeks out there that have to have the latest thing,

526
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 4: and God love them. And you know, if you're into

527
00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 4: that kind of stuff, this is going to be big

528
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,800
Speaker 4: because anytime Apple gets into a product category, whether it's the.

529
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:47,840
Speaker 6: Phone or the watch, you know, it's going to be

530
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 6: a step above. And I think a lot of people.

531
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 1: And I said, yesterday I got the iPod.

532
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:54,360
Speaker 6: Yeah, the little thing.

533
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 1: I got that wrong. But Andrew with Gene Munster, Colgate

534
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,119
Speaker 1: guy put it between the watch and the iPad.

535
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 6: Right, that's a big, big market next one.

536
00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 10: I know.

537
00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:07,400
Speaker 11: Matter of fact, I forgot.

538
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:07,920
Speaker 1: That's great.

539
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:10,360
Speaker 11: I forgot to ask them if it leaves a mark

540
00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:13,880
Speaker 11: on your face that I want to know. All right,

541
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:15,880
Speaker 11: So we're going on to the New York Times right now.

542
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 11: They have a story out with about the record heat

543
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 11: like today, we have a stretch of fifty degree weather

544
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 11: in Awmerican February. I mean, it's crazy, but we're talking worldwide. Okay,

545
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 11: So this is from the European Union Climate Monitor. January

546
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:33,360
Speaker 11: the eighth month in a row global temperatures blue pass records,

547
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 11: the hottest January on record. And this is coming off

548
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,360
Speaker 11: of last year, which the Earth's warmest year in over

549
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 11: a century and a half. So you see the trend

550
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 11: kind of here.

551
00:26:43,359 --> 00:26:44,960
Speaker 6: Even the hottest january for.

552
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 11: The oceans, which is a big thing because those sea

553
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 11: surface temperatures warmer oceans.

554
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,679
Speaker 4: Well, I just did the polar plunge down in Seacret,

555
00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 4: New Jersey, West Saturday, it was forty one degree. So

556
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,600
Speaker 4: I don't know where they're getting their their water, but yeah,

557
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 4: I know I've seen the data. It's just it's incredible,

558
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,000
Speaker 4: you know, I don't know. I'm gonna leave it for

559
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:02,640
Speaker 4: the smarter people.

560
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: Guys, here's the one person, whether you're four against is

561
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 1: this is the guy working his heart on this is

562
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 1: anybody else. His name is Michael Man. He's so an

563
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 1: academic depending Man. I think he's been at like ten

564
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 1: schools at last eight years or so. He's out of

565
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 1: Berkeley and Yale University. And Michael Man owns a high

566
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,640
Speaker 1: ground and he just says, Lisa, to your good point

567
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,320
Speaker 1: of bringing this up, the fact is there's no snow

568
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,159
Speaker 1: in Central Park that you know, where we get a

569
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:35,919
Speaker 1: dusting this year.

570
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:36,400
Speaker 5: Nothing.

571
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 10: Yeah.

572
00:27:36,920 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 1: What'd you see out in the climbs the mountains of

573
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:39,840
Speaker 1: New Jersey.

574
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean nothing. I mean, if if you want

575
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 4: to ski, you have to go. I mean, there's they're

576
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 4: making snow up up in New England. But you know,

577
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 4: the real snow is out west because they're getting those

578
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,880
Speaker 4: huge storms out on the west coast and it's been

579
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 4: you know, we saw the flooding coming in southern California.

580
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,400
Speaker 4: But it's just feet after feet after feet of snow

581
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 4: up in up in the Sierra and getting that out west.

582
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 6: So it's climate change, I guess, is how I've come

583
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 6: to understand, as opposed to you know, global warming, it's

584
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 6: climate change. Stuff's changing. Well, yeah, the data is the data.

585
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:08,399
Speaker 6: I don't know.

586
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 1: Again, I'm going to look at Michael Mann's work and

587
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:13,760
Speaker 1: I'll put something out on LinkedIn on it, and I

588
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 1: think he's done some great things. And there's a great

589
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: premer on this from Oxford University, a real short read

590
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 1: that really gives you some focus, and I get it.

591
00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 1: It's a really contest it could you know it's a

592
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 1: contested issue.

593
00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:27,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, I don't know.

594
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,040
Speaker 4: I guess kind of Bloomberg fifteen years so I think

595
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 4: I finally understand it's just the data. Don't just show

596
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,120
Speaker 4: the data then you decided, And the data I look

597
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,160
Speaker 4: at says, you know, tempts are going up and things

598
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 4: are going not to.

599
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 1: Sell his worship. I was at Paris with Mike Bloomberg

600
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: with the esteem people, Francine laqual leading our coverage and

601
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:48,960
Speaker 1: what Mike and others folks are doing and they're saying,

602
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: look all this big macro stuff China US, nobody's getting together.

603
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: If we're going to solve this and control this and

604
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 1: manage it, we're going to do it on a smaller

605
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 1: city by city. The cities you know, I'm sorry, are

606
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,640
Speaker 1: the Rooss White you know what, it works, that kind

607
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 1: of thing. And I think it's going to be open

608
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 1: to debate, and of course I'm not going to inswuence.

609
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 1: We got a rocket scientice with Bloomberg Green in London, yep.

610
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: And I was name in front of me right now,

611
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 1: but you know, I'm Cole and I'm the rest of

612
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,479
Speaker 1: it as well, and you know, I gotta be honest.

613
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: It devolves back right now to China, to Leland Miller's

614
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 1: China and what they're doing there. Thank you Lisa greatly.

615
00:29:26,000 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 1: I appreciate the headlines today. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast,

616
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:35,120
Speaker 1: bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

617
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 1: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit

618
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show

619
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 1: weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our

620
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 1: global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast

621
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 1: on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, and always

622
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.