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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 2: As the President tries to swing attention to domestic affairs,

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Speaker 2: here with an event yesterday yeared towards the battle against inflation.

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Speaker 2: This is interesting because Israel is not helping him in

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Speaker 2: the polls, his foreign policy is not certainly his economic

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Speaker 2: policies or not. Here's the President yesterday at the White House.

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Speaker 3: Well, this past week, as America has gathered around their

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Speaker 3: own kitchen tables for Thanksgiving dinner, that was our goal

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Speaker 3: to get him a little more breathing room, and together

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Speaker 3: we made progress. You know, from Turkey to air travel

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Speaker 3: to tank of gas costs went down. They went down

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Speaker 3: out of people making a lot of money. That doesn't

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Speaker 3: matter a whole lot, because the costs are relatively small

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Speaker 3: compared to wealthy incomes. In fact, as a share of

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Speaker 3: n is this nice Giving dinner was the fourth cheapest

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Speaker 3: ever on record. I want you'all know that.

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Speaker 2: But of course, as we've told you here as well,

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Speaker 2: it was still twenty five percent more than it was

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Speaker 2: in twenty nineteen, and that is why we find the

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Speaker 2: headline here at IPSOS, Biden's problem is an inflation problem.

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Speaker 2: It's just out today and Cliff Young, the president of

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Speaker 2: Public Affairs at IPSOS, joins us to talk about it. Cliff,

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Speaker 2: it's great to have you, Thanks for joining. This is

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Speaker 2: obviously not a new problem for Joe Biden. But you're

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Speaker 2: looking at an approval number in this poll south of

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Speaker 2: forty percent, which is pretty close to the lowest that

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Speaker 2: we have seen for him. How does this keep getting worse?

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Speaker 4: It's inflation, and it's sort of the dragon of inflation.

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Speaker 4: It affects people Americans in general or thoroughly at this point,

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Speaker 4: especially the younger, the less educated Blacks and Hispanic Americans,

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Speaker 4: and they cite the economy and inflation as the number

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Speaker 4: one issue.

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Speaker 2: You would think at some point, though, if inflation is

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Speaker 2: easy following an historic series of interest rate hikes that

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Speaker 2: have created, of course, a whole different problem for consumers

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Speaker 2: if you look at mortgage rates, if you look at

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Speaker 2: credit cards. Right now, we've seen an easing and inflation,

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Speaker 2: but his numbers don't seem to be responding to that.

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Speaker 2: Is there a lag effect with this economic condition?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, first and foremost, there is a lag effect in

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Speaker 4: when it comes to economics, public opinion typically is a

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Speaker 4: lagging indicator, not a leading indicator. But the other issue

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Speaker 4: is that it's not about rates, Joe. It's about the

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Speaker 4: level of prices. And as you were saying before, things

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Speaker 4: are still more expensive than a few years ago, and

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Speaker 4: Americans feel the pinch, they can't make ends meet. When

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Speaker 4: you look at specific demographics, like younger Americans, they feel

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Speaker 4: that especially. So so, yes, there's a lag effect on

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Speaker 4: the one hand, and it's about price levels on the other.

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Speaker 2: President talking about supply chain yesterday at this event, and

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Speaker 2: they had, of all people, the Secretary of Homeland Security

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Speaker 2: making media rounds to try to make the point. I

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Speaker 2: know they had Pee Boodha Jeddge, the Transportation Secretary around

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Speaker 2: the Thanksgiving holiday and everybody gets their turn, but supply chain, Cliff,

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Speaker 2: And maybe you've pulled this is not exactly a household conversation,

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Speaker 2: a kitchen table conversation. Things are either more expensive or

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Speaker 2: they're not. Is the White House just reaching for the

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Speaker 2: wrong narrative.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they're trying to connect with Americans. They're trying to

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Speaker 4: explain things, but in a context of that is difficult.

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Speaker 4: At this point, Americans are not ready to listen right Obviously,

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Speaker 4: supply chain. Talking about the supply chain is super abstract

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Speaker 4: and the average American is not going to understand what

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Speaker 4: it is specifically. But more importantly, people are not willing

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Speaker 4: to listen right now because they're not feeling.

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Speaker 2: You're right in your piece. What can be done? Need

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Speaker 2: to be patient. The President, I guess, has time on

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Speaker 2: his side here. There is another year for these numbers

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Speaker 2: to improve before peace people vote. Defend the policy agenda, though,

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Speaker 2: jumps off the page here. If he's going to get

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Speaker 2: above forty percent before the election, how does he do

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Speaker 2: that If it's not supply chain?

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Speaker 1: Is it?

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Speaker 2: I feel your pain? What's the approach from the commander?

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Speaker 5: Now?

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Speaker 4: I think he needs to be patient. He's going to

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Speaker 4: have to wait. This inflationary inertia is going to have

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Speaker 4: to work itself out in public opinion, and it will.

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Speaker 4: It typically does. And he hasn't doubled in on his message,

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Speaker 4: a message of economic growth, a message of economic vitality.

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Speaker 4: Talk about those programs that he's like initiated over the

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Speaker 4: last few years. Maybe today people are not willing to listen,

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Speaker 4: But that doesn't mean half a year, a year from now,

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Speaker 4: they won't be.

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Speaker 2: The time to drop the Bidenomics thing, get rid of

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Speaker 2: this brand.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, their branding has been a suboptimal at best. They

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Speaker 4: need to go and talk about the benefits and the

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Speaker 4: specific you know, reality that people are living in. That's

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Speaker 4: the best way to connect with with with anyone, including

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Speaker 4: the American opulus.

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Speaker 2: For spending time with Cliff Young from ipso's Cliff, I

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Speaker 2: know you had run numbers on the president's foreign policy

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Speaker 2: as well, and we're seeing a lot of pushback really

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Speaker 2: from progressives and in some cases the same people who

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Speaker 2: are being singled out in your new poll on inflation. Here,

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Speaker 2: it's in many cases people with lower incomes, it's many

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Speaker 2: in many cases people of color who this president needs

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Speaker 2: to get re elected. How much of a problem is

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Speaker 2: that when you add the layer of foreign policy here

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Speaker 2: with what's happening specifically between Israel and Hamas.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, foreign policy is an important issue, it's not a

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Speaker 4: determinate issue when it comes to the election. Really, once again,

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Speaker 4: if you put inflation versus foreign policy, inflation wins out,

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Speaker 4: and that's you know, that's tinging a more negative way.

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Speaker 4: If we look at Ukraine as well, there are weak

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Speaker 4: numbers there. The American populace in general when it comes

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Speaker 4: to foreign policy is more is more isolationist, more inward

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Speaker 4: looking than let's say a generation or two a go. Again,

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Speaker 4: the real problem with the numbers is an economic problem,

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Speaker 4: more specifically an inflation problem.

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Speaker 2: Sure, when you add you know what some people see

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Speaker 2: as funding violent wars or endless wars, I guess that

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Speaker 2: can have a corrosive effect, Cliff, But I you know,

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Speaker 2: there's no doubt about this being an economic issue and

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Speaker 2: something that voters are going to be weighing their decisions

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Speaker 2: on here. I just I wonder if there's anything more

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Speaker 2: than be patient. If you're essentially saying the president needs

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Speaker 2: to wait for things to get better.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's the economic context. It's difficult. Obviously, they need

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Speaker 4: to double down on their message. They need to need

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Speaker 4: to be on message. What are those things that they

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Speaker 4: are doing to improve people's lives, whether that be on

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Speaker 4: the economic front, or on the healthcare front, or transportation

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Speaker 4: or whatever it might be infrastructure as an example. They

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Speaker 4: need to but they need to be patient because the

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Speaker 4: context is more negative at this point. What we know

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Speaker 4: ultimately is that as inflation is guides, the numbers probably

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Speaker 4: will tick back up, not to the levels that they

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Speaker 4: were before. It never improves as much as as it declines.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, it's it's a moment to be patient. And

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Speaker 4: one of the points that I was making when it

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Speaker 4: comes to patients is that the Democrats shouldn't overreact. Indeed,

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Speaker 4: a sitting president like Biden, even with the numbers he has,

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Speaker 4: has better than a fifty to fifty chance of winning

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Speaker 4: the next election. Maybe it's not eighty percent, but at

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Speaker 4: least fifty percent, fifty to fifty. Let's say a successor,

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Speaker 4: and a successor could be Newsome as an example, or

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Speaker 4: Harris as another another one only has about a sixty

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Speaker 4: ten percent chance at the present approval ratings. So once again,

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Speaker 4: be patient, Democrats, be patient, This too will pass. Economic context,

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Speaker 4: the negative economic content, and ultimately this is you know,

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Speaker 4: the explanation as to Biden's numbers today.

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Speaker 2: That's great Cliff Young's message to the Biden reelection team,

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Speaker 2: have patients, this too shall pass. How about in the

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Speaker 2: Republican primary fields, Cliff, I know that's not what you're

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Speaker 2: looking at in these data, but Nicki Haley is sure

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Speaker 2: getting a lot of talk, larger crowds, certainly an uptick

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Speaker 2: in pulling in New Hampshire if not Iowa, and I

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Speaker 2: wonder your feel here is we're starting to get close

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Speaker 2: enough that the whole it's too early narrative doesn't really

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Speaker 2: seem to be working any longer. Is Donald Trump going

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Speaker 2: to run the board in these early states or not?

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Speaker 4: Maybe not in the first couple of states because they're

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Speaker 4: very controlled elections Iowa and New Hampshire, but definitely public opinion.

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Speaker 4: More specifically, the Republican base is a Trump base. Really,

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Speaker 4: Nicky Haley is feeling a vacuum left by Dessants and others.

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Speaker 4: There's no real change. Is changing the names, you're not

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Speaker 4: changing the levels. Ultimately, what we know is that the

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Speaker 4: indictments really didn't have an electoral effect. If anything, they

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Speaker 4: strengthened Trump and they're really baked into the numbers right now. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: if there's a conviction at one point, could that sway

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Speaker 4: things perhaps in the general election. But I really think

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Speaker 4: that the favorite, if not the absolute favorite, is Trump

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Speaker 4: at this point, and everything else is kind of rearranging

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Speaker 4: chairs on the deck of the Titanic.

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Speaker 2: Oh man, that's just depressing if you're in the race

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Speaker 2: for a second. Cliff, it's good to see you. I

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Speaker 2: appreciate the time today. Come back and talk to us

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Speaker 2: again on Bloomberg, Cliff Young President Public Affairs at ipso's

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Speaker 2: constantly running numbers as we are here at Bloomberg. We'll

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Speaker 2: be talking in another week or two about our next

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Speaker 2: dive on polling from the campaign trail, but I do

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Speaker 2: want to stick with this bead on inflation and the

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Speaker 2: findings from IPSOS as we layer that on top of

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Speaker 2: a very complicated time for this president, canceling his trip

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Speaker 2: this week to COP twenty eight to try to deal

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Speaker 2: with what's happening in the war between Israel and Hamas.

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Speaker 2: And to that end, we assemble our panel with us

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Speaker 2: today Genie Shanzeno, of course, Democratic analyst, Bloomberg politic contributor,

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Speaker 2: joined by Republican strategist Lisa Camuso Miller, former RNC communications

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Speaker 2: director and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. It's great

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Speaker 2: to see both of you here. Genie, your thoughts on

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Speaker 2: what IPSOS is telling us, because it's not the first time.

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Speaker 2: In fact, it's getting to be a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a broken record. Inflation is Joe Biden's problem, and he's

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Speaker 2: out beating the drum on supply chain. If you're trying

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Speaker 2: to get Joe Biden reelected here, do you take Cliff

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Speaker 2: Young's advice and just wait it out.

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Speaker 6: You know, they have no choice but to wait it out.

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Speaker 6: But in the meantime, I think there needs to be

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Speaker 6: recognition on they and the part of the administration as

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Speaker 6: to why Americans are in such a sour mood. And

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Speaker 6: they truly are, to Cliff's point and to ipsos's data

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Speaker 6: and all the data we've talked about. And you look

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Speaker 6: at these eighteen to thirty four year olds, This inflation

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Speaker 6: is devastating to their lives. Just look at the issue

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Speaker 6: of anybody who wants a mortgage or wants to rent.

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Speaker 6: This disproportionately in young people who didn't have the benefit

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Speaker 6: of getting into the system and buying or renting years ago,

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Speaker 6: when they may have got for buyers a lower interest rate.

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Speaker 6: So now they're stuck with this seven to eight percent.

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Speaker 6: It's devastating to them. So then you flip that over

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Speaker 6: and people say, do you think your children will be

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Speaker 6: better off than you? You're getting numbers like two out

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Speaker 6: of ten Americans only say their children will be better.

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Speaker 6: Seventy three percent say we're in the bad direction, misdirection

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Speaker 6: and part of the American public. And so you look

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Speaker 6: at those numbers and what the administration has to do

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Speaker 6: forcefully is to show this it needs to be countered

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Speaker 6: versus what the Republicans are proposing, things like cutting Social Security,

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Speaker 6: cutting medicare, cutting Medicaid, giving tax breaks to the wealthy. Yes,

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Speaker 6: we are not perfect, but juxtapose that to the alternative.

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Speaker 6: That alternative is going to be the story for them.

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Speaker 6: They haven't been able to make it yet, and if

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Speaker 6: they don't make it, it's all going to be about them,

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Speaker 6: and those numbers are never going to be as good

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Speaker 6: as they need them to be.

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Speaker 2: For Joe Biden, it certainly reminds us of how important

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Speaker 2: timing is here. You can be the smartest campaign in

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Speaker 2: the world, but his fortunes are going to lie in

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Speaker 2: the trajectory of the economy, whether or not he can

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Speaker 2: affect it. Whatever the lag effect is of FED interest

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Speaker 2: rate hikes, whether we're in a recession or not, the

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Speaker 2: second half of next year, whether he'll be able to

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Speaker 2: take credit for beating inflation, It's pretty tough to plan

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Speaker 2: around that, isn't.

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Speaker 7: It absolutely is Joe and the thing. I like what

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Speaker 7: Jeanie said about offering them some alternative, but also too,

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Speaker 7: I think the electorate and what we're hearing in the

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Speaker 7: IPSOS poll in a lot of other places that we're

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Speaker 7: seeing sentiment is that people feel unstable. And that's sort

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Speaker 7: of that goes back to your question about whether or

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Speaker 7: not foreign excuse me, foreign policy plays a role in

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Speaker 7: the election. I don't necessarily think that people go to

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Speaker 7: the polls based on what's happening overseas, but I do

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Speaker 7: think that that the unrest oversees the unrest in the

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Speaker 7: economy and the unrest in the government is making people

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Speaker 7: feel really concerned about who their leaders are and wanting

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Speaker 7: perhaps a better change in something that's going to give

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Speaker 7: them more stability.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 2: Thirty, then brings, of course, the matter of funding for Israel,

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Speaker 2: which has Congress in a bit of a standoff here

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Speaker 2: between the House the Senate, between even Republicans and other

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Speaker 2: Republicans in the House. The new speaker, though, Mike Johnson,

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Speaker 2: says he has spoken with Chuck Schumer, remembering that they

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Speaker 2: wanted to do Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, the border and at

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Speaker 2: this point getting that done by the end of the

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Speaker 2: year seems incredibly unlikely. But here's the new Speaker, Mike Johnson.

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Speaker 8: Israel is a top priority for the United States, and

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Speaker 8: supporting our ally there is critical. It's one of the

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Speaker 8: first things we did. In fact, we passed the bipartisan

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Speaker 8: Israel support package out of the House a while ago,

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Speaker 8: right not long after I took the gabble about a

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Speaker 8: month ago. It's been sitting in the Senate and on

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Speaker 8: Chuck Schumer's desk, and so we are encouraging him to

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Speaker 8: get that done.

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Speaker 2: We are encouraging him to get that done, knowing that

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Speaker 2: that House bill can't pass the Senate, and knowing that

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Speaker 2: this really apparently is going to come down to a

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Speaker 2: conversation about border security. Certainly the Ukraine portion will and

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Speaker 2: if it's all going to move together. There's going to

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Speaker 2: have to be a deal on the border. Spent some

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Speaker 2: time on this yesterday, very unclear how that would actually happen,

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Speaker 2: and so we reassemble our panel. Genie Schanzano was with us,

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Speaker 2: along with Lisa Camuso Miller. An important event last evening, Lisa,

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Speaker 2: Senator Tammy Duckworth pulled together a meeting you probably saw

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Speaker 2: this to bring in officials from the IDF, including an

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Speaker 2: Israeli major general, sat them down with Democratic senators who

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Speaker 2: have been very critical of Israel's handling of the war

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Speaker 2: here in the civilian deaths in Gaza. It took place

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Speaker 2: in a room just off the Senate floor, and apparently

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Speaker 2: it was a very frank conversation. According to Brian Shatz,

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Speaker 2: is that the kind of activity that will accelerate potentially

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Speaker 2: funding for Israel or is this all going to lead

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Speaker 2: to a deal potentially or not on the border, And

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Speaker 2: that's what this is in fact, writing on.

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Speaker 7: Well, I think we have to do everything we can

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Speaker 7: to get this done, Joe, I think, I mean your

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Speaker 7: point is so right. The end of the year is

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Speaker 7: upon us, It's happening, and they have got to get

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Speaker 7: this done. There is no time to wait. I'm old

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Speaker 7: enough to remember that Congress used to do things. Congress

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Speaker 7: and the Senate, when they work together, they used to

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Speaker 7: do comprehensive. But comprehensive doesn't seem to work anymore. So

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Speaker 7: I think we need to learn how to walk in

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Speaker 7: chew gum. We need to make sure that we're supporting Israel.

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Speaker 7: We need to make sure that we're introducing people that

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Speaker 7: maybe aren't in favor of giving them more funding to

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Speaker 7: understand that's smart on the Senator's part to bring them

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Speaker 7: in and to have a conversation about what's happening on

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Speaker 7: the ground. There's a lot of people that have forgotten

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Speaker 7: that long relationship that we have with Israel and how

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Speaker 7: we have to be supportive of them over and over again,

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Speaker 7: regardless of what they need. They're our biggest ally in

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Speaker 7: the Middle East. We need to continue to do everything

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Speaker 7: we can to support them. But we also need to

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Speaker 7: move quickly in Congress, and we need to stop waiting

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Speaker 7: around and fighting over the airwaves and over the social

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Speaker 7: media platforms. We need to get back to work, and

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Speaker 7: that's something that I think everyone would like to see

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Speaker 7: happen as quickly as possible.

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Speaker 2: Geini. We talked about this idea of tying Israel funding

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Speaker 2: to humanitarian international humanitarian law. Bernie Sanders out with an

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Speaker 2: aped in the New York Times, underscoring that he writes,

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Speaker 2: I do not support simply giving fourteen billion dollars to

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Speaker 2: Israel without any conditions at all. And he's at odds

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Speaker 2: with the Foreign Relations Committee Chair Ben Cardon on this.

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Speaker 2: Not a surprise, I guess to see IDF officials sitting

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Speaker 2: down with senators last evening. Can they change minds like

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Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, not a surprise, But you know, really think about

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Speaker 6: the idea that you send over high level officials at

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Speaker 6: a time when Israel, probably in its history, is in

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Speaker 6: the midst of a crisis, and they take the time

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Speaker 6: to come over and to speak to Democratic senators about funding.

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Speaker 6: I think that shows us how important the debate going

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Speaker 6: on in Congress is, not just in the US, but

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Speaker 6: in Israel. I think Duckworth I agree with Lisa it

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Speaker 6: was the right move. They do need to reassure not

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Speaker 6: just Democratic progressives but the American public overall. Because you know,

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Speaker 6: I'm sitting here in New York. The Manhattan Bridge was

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Speaker 6: closed over the holidays due to pro Palestinian protesters. We

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Speaker 6: at a school in New York where there was a

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Speaker 6: violent riot because a teacher went to a pro Israeli demonstration.

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Speaker 6: This is the kind of outpouring on the ground we

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Speaker 6: are seeing. This is what progressive Democrats and many others

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Speaker 6: our responding to. And so I think even beyond these

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Speaker 6: democrats in the Senate and Congress people overall, I think

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Speaker 6: we have an obligation to let the American public know

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Speaker 6: and be reassured that these billions of dollars in aid

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Speaker 6: are not going to go to a use in any country,

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Speaker 6: let alone Israel. That's in violation of law. Now that said,

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Speaker 6: isn't that the reality of all the aid we give?

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Speaker 6: And if it's not, because you know, a lot of

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Speaker 6: people scratch their head and say, are you telling me

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Speaker 6: we're getting money in violation of international law? No we

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Speaker 6: are not. So that's another part of this story. So, yes,

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Speaker 6: this is critically important, but a lot of this needs

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Speaker 6: to reach beyond Congress and to the ground in the

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Speaker 6: US where we're seeing this demonstration because it is public

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Speaker 6: money we're talking about.

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Speaker 2: Well, I do find it incredible the criticism from both

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Speaker 2: sides of the Aisle actually that the president is hearing. Lisa,

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Speaker 2: and I wonder your thoughts. I just read the line

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Speaker 2: from Bernie Sanders and others on the progressive left are

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Speaker 2: very upset with Joe Biden's support of a war that

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Speaker 2: they think has not been careful enough at a strategy

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Speaker 2: on behalf of the Israelis that has not been careful

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Speaker 2: enough to protect civilian lives. We've seen letters written from lawmakers.

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Speaker 2: We've even seen one lawmaker centered on the House floor

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Speaker 2: for what she said about it. Then there's Senator Ted Cruz,

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Speaker 2: for instance, and other Republicans who are bashing Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: for what they say is coddling for lack of a

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Speaker 2: better term Iran, and not being strong enough on Israel.

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Speaker 2: Here's Ted Cruz last evening on Fox News. Listen to this.

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Speaker 5: Joe Biden has been the most anti Israel president the

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Speaker 5: United States has ever had. There you go from the

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Speaker 5: very beginning of the Biden administration. This administration has undermined

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Speaker 5: the government of Israel at every step. They've done so systematically,

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Speaker 5: they've done so at a granular level.

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Speaker 2: How do you rationalize the criticism from both sides? Lisa,

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Speaker 2: and does it suggest that the President might be doing

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Speaker 2: something right.

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Speaker 7: You know, I'm reflecting on that, but also on something

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Speaker 7: that Genie said, and I think it just keeps coming

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Speaker 7: back to the fact that we're so divided in this

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Speaker 7: country that we find ourselves, yes, in a place where

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Speaker 7: if both sides are unhappy, then something good is probably

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Speaker 7: happening here. And that's the difficulty, right, is that when

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Speaker 7: we're communicating out to our various groups of people that

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Speaker 7: are listening to us, we're communicating to a Republican audience

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Speaker 7: on Fox News, and we're contributing to a Democratic office audience.

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Speaker 7: If we're listening to Bernie Sanders, and both sides of

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Speaker 7: the aisle are really unhappy about what's happening over there.

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Speaker 7: But the truth is that the US has to follow

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Speaker 7: policy and follow history, and follow the experts and do

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Speaker 7: what's right. So to me, if that's the case, if

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Speaker 7: the rs are mad and the d's are mad, then

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Speaker 7: the President is probably somewhere in the right spot. But

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Speaker 7: you know, look, I'm not a foreign policy expert. What

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Speaker 7: I do know is that unrest in the Middle East

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Speaker 7: makes everyone in the US feel uncomfortable. And that's where

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Speaker 7: we come back to the fact that the White House

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Speaker 7: and the administration has a responsibility to communicate out as

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Speaker 7: much as possible through the voice of the President more

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Speaker 7: than from the voices of other people that maybe audiences

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Speaker 7: aren't listening to. And that's where I think the White

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Speaker 7: Houses really need a misstep here and not letting the

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Speaker 7: President talk a little bit more freely and more openly

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Speaker 7: in front of an audience about what it is the

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Speaker 7: White House and the administration has chosen to do so

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Speaker 7: far in this case.

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Speaker 2: Just a minute to the news here, Jenny. If the

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Speaker 2: President has Bernie Sanders on one shoulder and Ted Cruz

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Speaker 2: on the other, what does he do in the middle.

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Speaker 6: Oh, I think he runs away at that point, Joe.

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Speaker 6: That's part of the thing. Who you want on either shoulder.

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Speaker 6: But the reality is is that the White House feels

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Speaker 6: very good about where they are vis a vis this issue.

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Speaker 6: We've got the Secretary of State visiting Israel for the

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Speaker 6: third time. The President has been in close touch with

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Speaker 6: all Israeli officials, and he, as he always says, watch me,

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Speaker 6: we've gotten hostages home, including at least three Americans, but

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Speaker 6: many more. In this pause, he did get a pause.

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Speaker 6: More humanitarian aid go in a lot more to do, arguably,

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Speaker 6: but they really do feel that he has had more

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Speaker 6: success in the last fifty days than anybody could have

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Speaker 6: predicted in a very very difficult situation. And so, you know,

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Speaker 6: let Ted Cruz go on Fox and say whatever he wants.

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Speaker 6: The reality is watch what has happened on the ground,

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Speaker 6: and it is, you know, the Biden administration that has

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Speaker 6: made this happen. They've been able to work with Qatar

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Speaker 6: and others in making this happen, and they do need

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Speaker 6: to be tough on around, no question, but they have

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Speaker 6: seen results in the last several weeks and they're happy

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Speaker 6: about that, with a lot more to do. Certainly, not

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Speaker 6: a success story at this point, but a good start

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Speaker 6: to where we need to be.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: The truce is intact and the Secretary of State is

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Speaker 2: on his way. Another important development Atsony Blinket, making I

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Speaker 2: believe the third trip since October seventh, and it follows

435
00:23:04,520 --> 00:23:07,400
Speaker 2: this meeting last night in the Senate I'm fascinated by

436
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,199
Speaker 2: this and I want to ask the ambassador about it.

437
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 2: Tammy Duckworth put this together with senior officials from the

438
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 2: IDF in a room with Democratic senators who've been critical

439
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,399
Speaker 2: of the way Israel has been conducting the war. They

440
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 2: crossed the ocean in the middle of a war to

441
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,199
Speaker 2: talk to senators here in Washington about this funding battle.

442
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,160
Speaker 2: And that's where we start our conversation with the ambassador,

443
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 2: former US Ambassador to Morocco, and you've heard him with

444
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,119
Speaker 2: us here on sound on Mark Ginsburg. It's great to

445
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:38,119
Speaker 2: see you, welcome back. Is that the right way to

446
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,639
Speaker 2: do this, to have military officials in a room with

447
00:23:40,720 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 2: politicians here in Washington? Does that make you feel comfortable?

448
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 2: And might it unlock a funding deal?

449
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 9: Indeed, that's the expectation at a will. But the issue

450
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:53,880
Speaker 9: here is that there has been increasing calls by more

451
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 9: progressive members of the Senate as well as in a House,

452
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:04,120
Speaker 9: to condition paid Israel AID on extending a ceasefire into

453
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 9: a more durable ceasefire. So obviously Israel Israel's government is

454
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 9: deeply concerned about the fact because all of these calls

455
00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:18,439
Speaker 9: for a ceasefire, which would in addition condition, additional assistance

456
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 9: to Israel is going to put a damper on Israel's

457
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 9: ability to have the supported needs from the Biden administration

458
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:31,240
Speaker 9: to continue to eradicate Hamas's leadership. And how you thread

459
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 9: that needle between extending a ceasefire and having Hamas decimated

460
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 9: is really one of the unanswered questions.

461
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,400
Speaker 10: Well, ambassador to that exact point, if you're the Israeli

462
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 10: military right now, how long strategically can you allow this

463
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 10: truth to extend before it really works against the objective

464
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:52,120
Speaker 10: you are trying to achieve.

465
00:24:53,680 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 9: Well, that's of course the greatest question that anyone going

466
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 9: to ask right now, and I mean that without patronizing

467
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 9: uk Kayley, but how does Israel eradicate forty five thousand

468
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 9: hardcore Hamas fighters that are now either sheltered in their

469
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 9: tunnels in the northern part of the Strip or have

470
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 9: taken refuge behind the human shields of Gazans who have

471
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 9: fled to the south. And how do you do that

472
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 9: in a way that doesn't cause what we would call

473
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 9: in a military collateral damage to civilians. I mean, that's

474
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 9: a question that the Israeli military I don't think has

475
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 9: a good answer to.

476
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:35,760
Speaker 2: Well, So what's it going to look like then, assuming

477
00:25:35,760 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 2: this truth comes to an end tomorrow, days or even

478
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,560
Speaker 2: weeks from now, what's it going to look like when

479
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 2: that first salvo is fired into Gaza, when the first

480
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 2: tanks roll in, the first explosions. The pr battle is

481
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,040
Speaker 2: going to start getting a lot more difficult for Benjamin Netanyahu,

482
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:54,479
Speaker 2: will it not.

483
00:25:56,160 --> 00:26:00,040
Speaker 9: It will not only be difficult for now, but it

484
00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 9: will be far more difficult for the Biden administration to

485
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 9: continue to provide unbridled support for Israel, even though it's spokesman,

486
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:12,400
Speaker 9: including the National Security Advisor, just said the Sunday that

487
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 9: Israel has every right to do what is necessary to

488
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 9: decimate Amas as a threat to Israel. But let's try

489
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 9: to put this a bit more in some perspective. Bill Burns,

490
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:29,120
Speaker 9: the CIA director, as in Cutter, right now to try

491
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 9: to negotiate an extension of the ceasefire with Israeli counterpart

492
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,679
Speaker 9: as well as with the Egyptians. Why in order to

493
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 9: facilitate more aid. Why Because the Israelis don't have a

494
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 9: good end game that they can share with the United States.

495
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 9: And Number three hamas to all what we've been able

496
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 9: to see so far, has only lost several thousand out

497
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,679
Speaker 9: of the forty five thousand hard core terrorists that are

498
00:26:54,840 --> 00:27:02,120
Speaker 9: part of the organization and its collateral terrorist organizations in Gaza. Well,

499
00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 9: to your.

500
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,360
Speaker 10: Point on the conversations that were happening in Doha, it's

501
00:27:05,400 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 10: the US involved here and Egypt and cutter. Do any

502
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 10: of them have enough leverage over either the Israelis or

503
00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,920
Speaker 10: Hamas to push for a continued ceasefire or ultimately is

504
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 10: this going to be up to these two groups. I

505
00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,119
Speaker 10: just wonder how those kind of conversations are going with

506
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:24,880
Speaker 10: the other countries that are involved here.

507
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:30,120
Speaker 9: Well, let's just assume for the record that HAMAS wants

508
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 9: as many cease fire extensions as possible and dribble out

509
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:39,720
Speaker 9: as few hostages as possible. On the contrary, Israel wants

510
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:44,880
Speaker 9: its hostages back and is prepared probably to see if

511
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,919
Speaker 9: Hamas will release more hostages in a way that gives

512
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 9: the Israeli public what it wants, which is at least

513
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,239
Speaker 9: an end to the hostage side of this equation. And

514
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 9: I don't think that the Israeli military is sitting anxious

515
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,640
Speaker 9: to pull a trigger again at this point until they're

516
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 9: able to figure out an end strategy. Once any cease

517
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:13,919
Speaker 9: fire or durable extension of the current pauses comes to

518
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,880
Speaker 9: an end. We're playing, in effect, almost an hourly game here.

519
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 2: Ambassador Kayley asked you about Hamasa's ability to rebuild and

520
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 2: regroup in the middle of a pause like this. How about,

521
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,880
Speaker 2: on the other side, how long can the IDF reasonably

522
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,719
Speaker 2: remain crouched if days or even weeks go by and

523
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 2: still be ready.

524
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 9: I'm not worried about the IDF being ready. The incentive

525
00:28:44,480 --> 00:28:46,960
Speaker 9: for the IDF and the one hundred and twenty thousand

526
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 9: reservists have been called up is they're itching to get

527
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 9: back into the fight. I'm not worried about. What I'm

528
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 9: more concerned about is the impact on Israel's economy. Israel

529
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 9: was humming along until October seventh, and when you pull

530
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 9: that many people out of the economy, that begins to

531
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 9: have a significant impact on Israel's budget and Israel's I guess,

532
00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 9: domestic morale. But let's also not forget that there's another

533
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 9: front in the North that is sapping Israel's energy as well.

534
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 9: And as long as the conflict with Gaza continues, Israel

535
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 9: faces an enormous challenge in the North, which, after all,

536
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 9: is the real threat for a broader conflict, and that

537
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 9: is between hesbal Iran on the way in the United

538
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 9: States and Israel on the other.

539
00:29:38,520 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 10: Ambassador, I'm glad you brought that up, because, as Joe mentioned,

540
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 10: Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln is going to make another

541
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 10: trip to the region, and in addition to expressing US support

542
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 10: for Israel, in addition to pushing for greater humanitarian relief,

543
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 10: we do expect that a lot of his effort is

544
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 10: going to be focused on preventing this conflict from expanding

545
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 10: any further. How great do you think the risk is

546
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,480
Speaker 10: right now of this bag coming wider regionally?

547
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,000
Speaker 9: I think it's already pretty wide. The fact is that

548
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 9: although Hesbella and Israel have an effect respected what is

549
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 9: taking place in Gaza, and so there's been somewhat of

550
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 9: a truce between Hesbelah and Israel, Hesbella's leader has made

551
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 9: it very clear that as long as there are hostilities

552
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:31,479
Speaker 9: that are continuing in Gaza, Hesbela will continue to do

553
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:35,960
Speaker 9: what it can to divert idf attention away to in

554
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 9: effect make Israel's life and the Israeli population's life in

555
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:44,640
Speaker 9: the North miserable, as well as Israel doing the same

556
00:30:44,960 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 9: for southern Lebanon. You have a massive, massive dislocation now

557
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 9: on both sides of the border of inhabitants that have

558
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 9: lived on both sides of the border as a result

559
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 9: of the fear factor that it's at work that at

560
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 9: any hour, any day, there can be a significant resumption

561
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 9: of hostilities between Israel on the one hand and Hesbal

562
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:05,880
Speaker 9: on the other.

563
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 2: Well, we've talked about Anthony Blincoln, you mentioned Bill Burns.

564
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,080
Speaker 2: How about Joe Biden? Does he go back?

565
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 9: I don't think so at this point in time. I

566
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 9: think the President at this point in time, has made

567
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 9: it very clear that he too is trying to figure

568
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 9: out how does he maintain this outright support that is

569
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 9: in his heart and soul for Israel's need to protect

570
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 9: itself against the pressure and his understandable loan concern that

571
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 9: he has for the fate of Gosens who are victimized

572
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 9: by Hamas's terrorist imprisonment of of citizens inside Gaza. You

573
00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 9: can't hold all Guysans responsible for Hamas, notwithstanding the fact

574
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 9: that they did elect Hamas in the first place.

575
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 10: Well, that again comes back to the humanitarian concern. We

576
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 10: just got a headline out from the Pentagon that the

577
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 10: US has airlifted fifty four thousand pounds of relief supplies

578
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 10: for Gaza, And yet we've heard consistently in recent days,

579
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 10: Ambassador that it's nowhere near enough. How close are we

580
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 10: to an inflection point where the tide of public sentiment

581
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,960
Speaker 10: turns in a more material way, given the extent of

582
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 10: the humanitarian crisis we are seeing in Gaza.

583
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 9: Listen, I think in the end that most Americans, and

584
00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 9: by far the poll show that support Israel's right to

585
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 9: defend itself. And I don't think that, notwithstanding all of

586
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 9: the demonstrations that they've taken place, and government publicity here

587
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 9: and the expressions of concern on the White House staff,

588
00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 9: that Americans are prepared to throw in the tunnel. Congress

589
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 9: so far has seemed willing to give bipartisan support to

590
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 9: Israel and not condition aid. There's always going to be

591
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 9: a few fringe senators, whether they be Bernie Sanders or

592
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 9: Chris Murphy or even my senator from Maryland, Chris van Holland,

593
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 9: oh seem to be a far more concerned. But I

594
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 9: ask you the following question, if they're more concerned than

595
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 9: the Palestinians on the West Bank. What does that say

596
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 9: a lot to you? It says a lot to.

597
00:33:17,240 --> 00:33:21,120
Speaker 2: Me when it gets your reflections before you leave us

598
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:25,479
Speaker 2: Ambassador about what's happening today in Atlanta for folks who

599
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,440
Speaker 2: don't know, you started your career essentially as a diplomat

600
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:31,520
Speaker 2: in the Carter administration. And we've got the President and

601
00:33:31,560 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 2: First Lady in Atlanta today, We've got every living First

602
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 2: Lady gathering as well to say farewell. It's Roslynd Carter,

603
00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,320
Speaker 2: and I'm wondering what we should know. What people should

604
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:46,480
Speaker 2: know about the legacy that the Carter administration left in

605
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 2: terms of establishing ties in the Middle East.

606
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 9: Well, I worked on this issue almost for three and

607
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 9: a half years during the Carter administration as Deputy Advisor

608
00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,680
Speaker 9: to the President for Middle East Policy. I spoke had

609
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,240
Speaker 9: the privilege of speaking with Rosalind and the President when

610
00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 9: I was ambassad of Morocco, and they came and stayed

611
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:08,840
Speaker 9: with me to reflect on this period of time, because

612
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 9: he was truly dedicated to trying to forge more than

613
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:15,799
Speaker 9: just a peace between Egypt and Israel and the Camp

614
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:19,840
Speaker 9: David negotiations, but he came across the tame same type

615
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 9: of a government in Israel that currently exists right now,

616
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:27,479
Speaker 9: a right wing government led by Monoch and Began, who

617
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:31,880
Speaker 9: was determined to prevent President Carter from fulfilling his aspirations

618
00:34:31,920 --> 00:34:37,120
Speaker 9: to bring about a first stage autonomy for Palestinians, which

619
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:40,240
Speaker 9: we all believed in, and then secondly to help produce

620
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 9: a Palestinian two state solutions with Israel. The right wing

621
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,399
Speaker 9: government in Israel would have nothing of it, and as

622
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 9: a result, there was an enormous amount of friction to

623
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 9: develop between what essentially should have been closer ties between

624
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 9: President Carter and Israel because of his enduring commitment to

625
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 9: peace between Israel and Egypt. Thanks of course to Presidents of.

626
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 2: Dot It's good to have you back, Ambassador. He's now

627
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:10,799
Speaker 2: president of Coalition for a Safer Web. Maybe we'll talk

628
00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 2: cybersecurity next time, because that's actually a pretty big part

629
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:16,600
Speaker 2: of all of this. Mark Ginsburg, the former US Ambassador

630
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 2: to Morocco. Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast.

631
00:35:24,040 --> 00:35:26,480
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already had Apple,

632
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 2: Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you

633
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 2: can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at

634
00:35:32,520 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 2: one pm Eastern time at Bloomberg dot com