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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest Betting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go. We're growing in job spectator.

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Speaker 3: I'm setting it to cash. We'll see most gamblers when

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Speaker 3: they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull.

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Speaker 4: And we are hooked away and welcome to the Action

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Speaker 4: Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybaun, and this is

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Speaker 4: your Super Bowl betting preview, joined as always by my

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Speaker 4: Action Network Kywigen, a prime Minister of Degenerate Nation.

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Speaker 3: Stucky stuff.

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Speaker 2: What's going on sight of the last one of the season,

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Speaker 2: I can honestly say, for the first time in my life,

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Speaker 2: people not gonna like to hear this, but I'm I

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Speaker 2: think I only have energy for like one more football

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Speaker 2: game between college football and NFL this year. And look,

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Speaker 2: I love football. I love the grind. I'm so happy

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Speaker 2: we had full seasons, but like just tracking the COVID news,

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Speaker 2: it's been such a grind, and then throwing college basketball too,

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Speaker 2: so it feels like it's been the perfect length because

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Speaker 2: I have enthusiasm for like one more week and then

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Speaker 2: it'll be nice to get a break we won the

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Speaker 2: college basketball and then be nice and refreshed for next year.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, let's do this.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I'm excited for Sunday looking back at the

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Speaker 2: anfcnice chamionship been. It was two weeks ago. I know

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Speaker 2: you had big days. I feel like my four props

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Speaker 2: that I had I went one in three, but I

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Speaker 2: feel like I had them handicapped, right, But who cares

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Speaker 2: if you get the win or not. I had god

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Speaker 2: win over catches and over reception yards. He came up

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Speaker 2: a half yard a half catch short, and then he

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Speaker 2: has a run to seal the game, but a dropper

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Speaker 2: A couple drops that was frustrating at five and a half.

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Speaker 2: And then I had Singletary and uh tj Yelden vulture

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Speaker 2: made because Singletary dropped one early and the angle was right.

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Speaker 2: A tat table attack the cheeks, but Singletary drop one

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Speaker 2: and he got a bandit. He got dropped. So, Bob,

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Speaker 2: I'm really excited to talk props today and dive into

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Speaker 2: this game and try to close the season with a

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Speaker 2: on the high note.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, man, it's been it's been a grind and it

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Speaker 4: kind of the one thing about this game is, you know,

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Speaker 4: for some of the props, I've had a hold off

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Speaker 4: on on some of them because IM usually betting all

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Speaker 4: types of you know, receiver props. But you know, we

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Speaker 4: don't know exactly what's going on with ab and Watkins

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Speaker 4: and DeMarcus Robinson. So it's been a little bit weird.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, excited to get into it this week. Before

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Speaker 4: we kick things off to very quick reminders. Number One,

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Speaker 4: if you plan to have been on any sport ever

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Speaker 4: and still haven't downloaded the free, award winning Action Network app,

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Speaker 4: what are you doing. It's got betting tools, analysis for

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Speaker 4: me stucky in the whole Action Network crew, and it

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Speaker 4: has to track every bet that you make. And Number two,

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Speaker 4: even though the football season is almost over, the Action

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Speaker 4: Network podcast will still have lots of great episodes every

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Speaker 4: single week.

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Speaker 3: NBA PGA to our college basketball MLB previews.

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Speaker 4: There's lots of great stuff coming in the weeks ahead,

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Speaker 4: So don't go anywhere, all right, let's get into it, Stut,

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Speaker 4: We'll talk some live strategy.

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Speaker 2: Let's first start talking about the spread in total and

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Speaker 2: live approach, like what do you have it at? And

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Speaker 2: then we'll get into maybe first touchdown super Bowl MVP,

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Speaker 2: and then we'll finish off with our profits.

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Speaker 4: And for Super Bowl fifty five, we have the Kansas

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Speaker 4: City Chiefs three and a half point favorites at bet MGM,

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Speaker 4: the official odds provider of the podcast, the total fifty

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Speaker 4: six and a half.

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Speaker 2: So what would you little maniacs like to do first?

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Speaker 4: Well, we'll keep the six pack on hold because, yeah,

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Speaker 4: I know everyone wants to hear about the spread total

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Speaker 4: and you know how we're kind of projecting it. So

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Speaker 4: I mean, I'll just I'll start off by saying the

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Speaker 4: way I think this game is going to go, just

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Speaker 4: from a kind of big picture perspective is I think

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Speaker 4: Kansas City is going to come out past heavy. I

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Speaker 4: think that that's what they have been won't to do

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Speaker 4: over the second half of the season, at least early

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Speaker 4: in games. And I think that continues in homes through

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Speaker 4: forty nine times against the Bucks in the first match

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Speaker 4: and completed thirty seven.

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Speaker 3: For four hundred and sixty two yards.

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Speaker 4: And on the other side, I think the Bucks, they

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Speaker 4: they they have more I think for the Bucks kind

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Speaker 4: of the decisions they make.

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Speaker 3: In terms of how they play.

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Speaker 4: This is going to affect the outcome a little bit

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Speaker 4: more because I think they're a team that kind of

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Speaker 4: goes predictably run heavy on first down, and then they

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Speaker 4: get themselves into these you know, third and medium, third

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Speaker 4: and long situations. The Chiefs have been pretty good on

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Speaker 4: third down, but you know, their run defense has been

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Speaker 4: shaky kind of throughout, so it's kind of, you know, what,

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Speaker 4: what's the bucks poison here? But I think that the Chiefs,

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Speaker 4: if they if they come out and play pass heavy,

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Speaker 4: I think, you know, they're the better team in this game.

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Speaker 3: I don't.

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Speaker 4: I think the number on the market is pretty much

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Speaker 4: in line with what it should be.

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Speaker 3: I have it at two and a half.

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Speaker 4: You know the market usually he's going to have a

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Speaker 4: tiny bit inflated to the favorite. So they have it

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Speaker 4: at three. But I can't complain there. I take I

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Speaker 4: took the Bucks at three and a half. I don't

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Speaker 4: really see much value at three here. But which what

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Speaker 4: are your thoughts on a game?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I make it like right around three. I gave

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Speaker 2: Tampa like a very small home field boost. Yeah, I

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Speaker 2: mean that there's there's gonna be a crowd, but it's

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Speaker 2: not gonna be like a pro Bucks crowd, so you

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Speaker 2: don't worry about official bias. There's two weeks in between here.

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Speaker 2: The Chiefs already played here, played in Tampa earlier this year.

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Speaker 2: But I mean they do have to travel, and they're

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Speaker 2: traveling like later than usual, so that's worth something. And

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Speaker 2: then the Bucks still are more familiar with their environment.

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Speaker 2: So I gave it like a quarter of a point.

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Speaker 2: You could argue at zero, you could argue it to

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Speaker 2: a half point. I don't know if that's what I

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Speaker 2: gave it, but I make this line three. I make

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Speaker 2: a total. Originally made a fifty seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: Went back, look at I'm at like fifty seven. I

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Speaker 2: was a fifty five and a half. So I see

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Speaker 2: some a tad bit of value on the over, but

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Speaker 2: I'd rather wait to see if I can get alive over.

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Speaker 2: Talked about this last week slow starts in conference championships

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Speaker 2: and Super Bowls over the past fifteen twenty years, and

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Speaker 2: what is the reasoning there, Well, sometimes teams come out,

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Speaker 2: you know, quarterbacks can be a little nervous early. You

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Speaker 2: don't want to make a mistake. We might not see

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Speaker 2: that with Brady and Mahomes who have been there before.

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Speaker 2: But also some offenses come out a little conservative. They

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Speaker 2: want to get a feel for what defenses are doing.

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Speaker 2: This is the Super Bowl, right Like you draw up

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Speaker 2: your plays, you have just everything's open in the playbook.

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Speaker 2: You probably have a number of different approaches based on

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Speaker 2: what the other team's.

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Speaker 5: Going to do.

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Speaker 2: But this is when teams may drastically change what they

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Speaker 2: do defensively, right Like, they could come out with a

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Speaker 2: completely different scheme for the Super Bowl. So offenses a

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Speaker 2: lot of times are trying to get a feel for

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Speaker 2: what the defenses are doing, and then the game's kind

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Speaker 2: of slow early and then it opens up. You go

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Speaker 2: back since nineteen ninety nine, six point four one average

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Speaker 2: points per first quarter in the Super Bowl six point

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Speaker 2: four to one. Over that same span, all first quarters

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Speaker 2: average of about eight point eight nine, so it's over

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Speaker 2: two points fewer. All the other quarters in the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 2: by the way, average more points than their respective averages

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Speaker 2: over that span. So like super bowls over that time,

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Speaker 2: spance is like t of nine average about thirteen point

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Speaker 2: five points in the second quarter. That's higher than their

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Speaker 2: normal average, you know, close to eleven in the third quarter.

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Speaker 2: That's almost two points higher than the normal average fourth quarter.

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Speaker 2: It's closed to seventeen points per game on average, that's

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Speaker 2: like four points higher than the average. So I'm going

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Speaker 2: to try and see if I can, you know, if

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Speaker 2: we get a slow start and I can come in

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Speaker 2: on a live over, especially if have I mean the

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Speaker 2: dream live over is when the when the Chiefs are behind.

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Speaker 2: You know, over those twenty two Super Bowls, throw only

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Speaker 2: three had more than ten points over the in the

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Speaker 2: first quarter, which is crazy. Brady's nine Super Bowls, this

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Speaker 2: could be random. And look, he didn't have he's never

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Speaker 2: had these webs, and he's not normally playing against my

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Speaker 2: homes and the Chiefs offense, and the Chiefs defense is

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Speaker 2: usually it's probably worse than the average Super Bowl defense,

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Speaker 2: I would assume so. And look, it's only a sample

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Speaker 2: size of nine, but Brady's nine Super Bowl appearances three

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Speaker 2: points in the first quarter total or fewer seven of

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Speaker 2: the nine times average over those nine first quarters three points.

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Speaker 2: That's so only one and more than ten. So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna try and see if I can get a slow start. Look,

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Speaker 2: and it's a no risk script strategy. If it blows

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Speaker 2: up early whatever. I didn't see a ton of value

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Speaker 2: on the over, and it's a high total. A lot

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Speaker 2: can go wrong here, so I'll try and see if

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Speaker 2: I can get a live or the dream would be

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Speaker 2: to try to get like a live over fifty and

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Speaker 2: a half. I can get this under fifty one after

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Speaker 2: a really slow start, that would be great. Follow the

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Speaker 2: action app to see what I play there. From a

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Speaker 2: spread perspective, I make it three. Would get the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: live if they go down double digits. Might probably take

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Speaker 2: the Bucks live, but definitely the Chiefs if they go

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Speaker 2: down big early. We've seen that script play out a

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Speaker 2: million times. The other good thing about the live over

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Speaker 2: is the Bucks run defense is e laite. I don't

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Speaker 2: know how much the Chiefs are going to be able

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Speaker 2: to run if they have a big lead, or how

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Speaker 2: much they actually will try to run. You know, it's

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Speaker 2: hard to envision like this game ever getting into a

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Speaker 2: state where someone is just running it up the middle

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Speaker 2: and running the clock out, which could kill a higher

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Speaker 2: total late. It'll be interesting to see if the Bucks.

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Speaker 2: By the way, what does the Bucks defensive coordinator doing

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Speaker 2: his free time for fun Todd Bowls? I don't know

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Speaker 2: what does he do he bowls Todd Bowles, So I

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Speaker 2: had to get a dad joke out there.

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Speaker 5: I think we're getting into a weird area here.

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Speaker 2: So it'll be interesting to see how aggressive Bowls is.

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Speaker 2: This is a normal normally an aggressive defense that likes

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Speaker 2: the blitz. You know, they got crushed in the first

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Speaker 2: quarter in the last game, and they just went down

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Speaker 2: big early. They were missing some pieces. They were missing Dean,

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Speaker 2: They're missing their left tackle and he'll just kill them

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Speaker 2: it over two hundred yards in the first quarter. The

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Speaker 2: Bucks didn't blitz that much that game. It'll be interesting

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Speaker 2: to see how they approach this or that. Are they

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Speaker 2: just playing way off trying to prevent the big player.

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Speaker 2: They doubling Hill, are they doubling Kelsey both? And then

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Speaker 2: on the other side. I think what this comes down

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Speaker 2: to is you have Mahomes in his turf toe could

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Speaker 2: always flare up. How mobile is he With a banged

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Speaker 2: up offensive line. You're missing almost like the entire starting

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Speaker 2: offensive line from the beginning of the year. Eric Fisher

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Speaker 2: is now out against a really good defensive line that

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Speaker 2: presumably has a much healthier and ready to roll Vida

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Speaker 2: veya now back. How much pressure can the Bucks get

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Speaker 2: how effective can they be on the flip side, you know,

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Speaker 2: their defensive line against the Chiefs off the line, big

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Speaker 2: advantage Bucks, especially if Mahomes is not one hundred percent mobile.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure they're going to shoot them up, but it's

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Speaker 2: a question worth asking. But on the flip side, the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs no this, So how are they going to scheme

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Speaker 2: to maybe compensate for that weakness? Are they going to

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Speaker 2: and especially that they're not going be able to run

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Speaker 2: the ball, are they going to use more you know,

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Speaker 2: trick plays? Are they going to run with the receivers

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Speaker 2: wide receiver screens? I'll get into some of that, but

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Speaker 2: the the I think the chess match between Reid and

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Speaker 2: that offense with two weeks prepare we all know Reid

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Speaker 2: is great off of buye against balls and how he

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Speaker 2: plays that defensively, and then just up and front the

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Speaker 2: Bucks defensive line against the Chiefs offensive line. How much

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Speaker 2: pressure can they get? How much can they impact Mahomes?

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Speaker 2: Because generally if you butz Mahomes, it's a death wish.

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Speaker 2: But maybe with this defensive line and Mahomes not one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent mobile, you can have some success there. It's risky,

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Speaker 2: so yeah. And on the other side, it's the Chiefs

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Speaker 2: are you know their defense. They stink against the run,

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Speaker 2: they stink in the red zone, they stink covering running backs.

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Speaker 2: But they just find ways. And Spagnole's had two weeks

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Speaker 2: to prepare. He usually comes up with a great plane.

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Speaker 2: He's been great against Brady in the past. They're gonna

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Speaker 2: try and take away the receivers. They're gonna play a

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Speaker 2: lot of cover two looks. So I don't have a

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Speaker 2: huge feel for Oh, I think this team, you know

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Speaker 2: sub games, I do have this field like, this team's

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Speaker 2: gonna do this and it's gonna work the perfection. I

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Speaker 2: just think it's a great chess match. The line is

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Speaker 2: about right, the total is about right. I'll look for

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Speaker 2: live over. I'll look for Live's chief position. Tommy old

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Speaker 2: now older than the trees, bigger than the mountains, taller

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Speaker 2: than trees. Pap take hold to the past. We below

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Speaker 2: can't sit.

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Speaker 4: I think the Mahomes question is really interesting because he

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Speaker 4: wasn't even on the injury report. I think they took

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Speaker 4: him off weading or he practicing full weading up to

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Speaker 4: even the championship game. So I wonder if it's not

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Speaker 4: really affecting him as much as we think because he

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Speaker 4: wasn't scrambling much over the like from I think it

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Speaker 4: was the Buffalo game.

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Speaker 3: In the Buffalo game, he scrambled seven times.

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Speaker 4: In the Raiders game the week before that, he scrambled

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Speaker 4: five times, and same thing in the Patriots game. Since

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Speaker 4: week number seven, Patrick Mahomes, after averaging four and a

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Speaker 4: half scrambles per game over the first six weeks, he's

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Speaker 4: averaged just one and a half over the remaining games

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Speaker 4: and he had no no scrambles against the Bills two

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Speaker 4: against the Browns. Hasn't had more than three at a game,

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Speaker 4: so he is staying in the pocket more. The Bucks

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Speaker 4: played eighty percent zone against him in that in that

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Speaker 4: first matchup. That was I believe one of I think

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Speaker 4: that was their highest of the year overall. That's a

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Speaker 4: lot of his own, but it's like, what what do

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Speaker 4: you do? You know, because Patrick Mahomes has been better

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Speaker 4: against man coverage this year, so you know, playing zone

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Speaker 4: probably the right move, but they still ripped it up.

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Speaker 3: I think that it's going to be interesting to see.

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Speaker 4: Whether they play you know, kind of you know, the

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Speaker 4: Bucks can play quarters coverage. I think that might be

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Speaker 4: an option for them, you know, just playing quarters coverage

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Speaker 4: even more, letting them get you know, the over the

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Speaker 4: short and intermediate area and just trying not to let them,

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Speaker 4: you know, Tyreek Hill.

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Speaker 3: Kill him beat.

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Speaker 4: But I mean, I don't know the exact answer for

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Speaker 4: Todd Bowles, whereas yes, Steve Speck No, I mean we say,

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Speaker 4: you know, they stink against running backs. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 4: they've had problems here and there, but really it's kind

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Speaker 4: of schemed, like they schemed them. They invite the invite

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Speaker 4: it right, And that's a big difference because that does

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Speaker 4: kind of, I guess, skew some of the chiefs numbers

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Speaker 4: and make them look more extreme than they are in

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Speaker 4: certain instances where it's like, ah, you look up and

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Speaker 4: they're like, you know, bad it against you know, one

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Speaker 4: of the worst the DVO against running backs and tight ends.

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Speaker 4: But it's generally because the average team, if you're they're running,

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Speaker 4: you know, the average running back catch is going for

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Speaker 4: about seven eight yards. The average you know, tight end

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Speaker 4: catch is going for about ten. So most teams don't

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Speaker 4: have the type of weapons to if you take away

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Speaker 4: their wide receivers and make them drive the wink to

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Speaker 4: the field. And they're and they have to only throw

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Speaker 4: to their running backs and tight ends. Uh, you're you're

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Speaker 4: not going They're not gonna have much success. And the

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Speaker 4: Chus have been top two in yard fewest yards allowed

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Speaker 4: to wide receivers in each of the two years now

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Speaker 4: under Steve Spagnola. So they I think that their their

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Speaker 4: numbers are kind of a little bit deceiving. I just

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Speaker 4: think that, Uh, the Bucks, it's like, it's will they

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Speaker 4: be willing to kind of go short with a shorter

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Speaker 4: passing game because I think the deep drops and the

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Speaker 4: and the deep routes and the long developing routes to

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Speaker 4: get them in trouble. I mean, we saw, you know,

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Speaker 4: Brady going downfield. You know, bad things happen. Guys tip passes,

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Speaker 4: guys drop passes. Uh, he just throws bad passes. They

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Speaker 4: get picked off. And then you know, you can also

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Speaker 4: get into those situations where he has to ground the ball,

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Speaker 4: he has to take a sack. Like I think the

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Speaker 4: Bucks need to go to like a quicker drop passing

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Speaker 4: game because the Chiefs are great at getting pressure across

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Speaker 4: the across downs too. That's another thing they do decently well.

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Speaker 4: So for me, it's like how do the Bucks. I

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Speaker 4: think the Bucks, like the chiefs they are, they are

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Speaker 4: known to kind of adjust. I don't think they're gonna

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Speaker 4: come out and try to run it. I think that they'll,

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Speaker 4: you know, they they'll have a game plan depending on

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Speaker 4: how much Mahomes can run.

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Speaker 3: Either way, I don't think it will affect them as much.

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Speaker 3: But I do think that.

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Speaker 4: If the Bucks like do what they always do, that

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Speaker 4: could be dangerous because if they get down, they're gonna

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Speaker 4: they're gonna find themselves in trouble.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the only thing with that, like, I'm

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Speaker 2: sure he'll get shot up. And I mean because his

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Speaker 2: running ability and his mobile His mobility is why he's

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Speaker 2: so great against the Blitz. It's one of the reasons

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Speaker 2: why he could just run backwards forever and he could

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Speaker 2: just he just buys time. But he also his running

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Speaker 2: ability would be very beneficial in this game, in particular,

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Speaker 2: especially the Bucks, to bring pressure and he does like

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Speaker 2: last year in that Super Bowl run he ran a

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Speaker 2: bunch and he was running for forty fifty yards a

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Speaker 2: game that the only the only worry for me would

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Speaker 2: be with a turf with turf toe is it's one

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Speaker 2: of those things where you just need time and maybe

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Speaker 2: two weeks help. So usually it's like it's longer than that.

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Speaker 2: It's something that lingers, and it's something that just you'll

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Speaker 2: see it with like cornerbacks and wide receivers that just

358
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Speaker 2: suddenly they'll on a on a cut, it'll flare up

359
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Speaker 2: on them and then they're just kind of hobbled for

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Speaker 2: the rest of the game and then they come out. Now,

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Speaker 2: Mahomes wouldn't have to come out, but like a receiver

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Speaker 2: does because they just they can't plant and it just

363
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Speaker 2: hurts too much. Now that just mean would mean Mahomes

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Speaker 2: just to sit in the pocket more and and be

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Speaker 2: less nobile. That's the only concern there. But yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: a it's a fascinating chest match. Yeah, I mean who, ultimately,

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Speaker 2: who are you rooting for.

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Speaker 4: It's tough because I mean I took the bucks early,

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Speaker 4: but I think I'm going to try to get it

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Speaker 4: on some Chiefs live because ultimately I do still I

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Speaker 4: do still think they win the game. I just didn't

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Speaker 4: think the spread should be more than three either way

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Speaker 4: as it was when it opened.

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Speaker 3: So I want to see.

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Speaker 4: Brady kind of remind everybody why he still got it,

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Speaker 4: you know.

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Speaker 3: First year on the Bucks.

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Speaker 4: But I also love Patrick Mahomes and you know, for

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Speaker 4: him to win a second Super Bowl in three years,

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Speaker 4: and you know, really you should have may have had

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Speaker 4: three if D four doesn't jump off sides, you know,

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Speaker 4: it's I don't.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, like it's tough.

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Speaker 4: It's I don't think I'm rooting for anybody as much

385
00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:36,280
Speaker 4: as I'm just gonna be rooting for all the different

386
00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:39,760
Speaker 4: bets I'm making, because this is kind of one like

387
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Speaker 4: this is kind of a truck super Bowl in a way.

388
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Speaker 4: It's one that I think a lot of people were

389
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Speaker 4: excited to see.

390
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Speaker 2: So yeah, and I'll be reading for my bets and

391
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Speaker 2: then if I live, I'll be rooting for them. But

392
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Speaker 2: if I have to pick, I'll go Team AFC. So

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Speaker 2: I'll go Chiefs. Let's get into first touchdown. What are

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Speaker 2: your thoughts there?

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Speaker 4: So the way I look at this, and we have

396
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Speaker 4: a piece up at Action Network dot Com. We all

397
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Speaker 4: had we had a little value draft, and so the

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Speaker 4: way I look at first Touchdown is it's kind of

399
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Speaker 4: like a future in terms of the pricing, right you have,

400
00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:14,040
Speaker 4: like the you know, the lowest odds are still like

401
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,280
Speaker 4: plus you know, plus six hundred. So I think a

402
00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:18,159
Speaker 4: lot of people feel like, Okay, I gotta take this,

403
00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:19,240
Speaker 4: I gotta take a long shot.

404
00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:20,480
Speaker 3: This is a great opportunity.

405
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Speaker 4: But the way I look at it is if the

406
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Speaker 4: if the odds are pretty much in line with what

407
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 4: I think the true touchdown odds should be for the players,

408
00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 4: then I'm just gonna skew toward Okay, who's the most

409
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Speaker 4: likely to score a touchdown? Because it's still a bet

410
00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:36,280
Speaker 4: over a shorter horizon time where you kind of know

411
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Speaker 4: like these odds aren't going to change much. Unlike if

412
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Speaker 4: you were betting like a future and you got a

413
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,879
Speaker 4: team at like, you know, plus plus three thousand, they

414
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:45,800
Speaker 4: would have now, you know, four or five months to

415
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Speaker 4: improve their team, and that that ticket might the value

416
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:50,560
Speaker 4: that ticket might improve, or it's first touchdowns first touchdown.

417
00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:55,399
Speaker 4: So I still think that the best guys to go

418
00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 4: within this game are Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelcey. I

419
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 4: think Mike Evans there some value there as well, but

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Speaker 4: I like Tyreek in particular. He was actually the guy

421
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Speaker 4: took of the draft. I like him at six to

422
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Speaker 4: one or anything above.

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00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:08,280
Speaker 2: You look at him.

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Speaker 4: Since twenty eighteen, he has he's tied for the most

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Speaker 4: first quarter touchdowns in the league this year. He was

426
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Speaker 4: second in first quarter targets and touchdowns during the regular season.

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Speaker 3: And you know, we saw what he did to the

428
00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:23,680
Speaker 3: Bucks in that first matchup.

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Speaker 4: He scored two touchdowns before anyone else did in that game.

430
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Speaker 4: So I think I do think there's some value still

431
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Speaker 4: on Tyreek Hill. If I had to go to a

432
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Speaker 4: long shot, and I know we're going to talk about

433
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Speaker 4: him more in our six pack or eight pack, but

434
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Speaker 4: I think if I had to go to a long shot,

435
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,640
Speaker 4: I would go Ronald Jones because he's been getting double

436
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:41,400
Speaker 4: digit carries.

437
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:43,679
Speaker 3: He's the guy that I think skewed his usage skews

438
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 3: toward earlier in the game.

439
00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:47,920
Speaker 4: He's been the running back without without the rushing back,

440
00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,959
Speaker 4: I should say, without much pass game involvement lately, and

441
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 4: so I think, you know, against his chief defense, if

442
00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 4: the Bucks may want to get both backs involved early,

443
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,600
Speaker 4: and you know, Jones has the ability and makes some

444
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 4: big plays, and I do think that it wouldn't be

445
00:20:01,560 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 4: inconceivable to see like the Bucks start off with opening

446
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,600
Speaker 4: drive for Net you know, maybe starts the game, but

447
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:08,439
Speaker 4: Jones comes in near the end of the driving ends

448
00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:10,800
Speaker 4: up banging went in. So I like Tyreek as the

449
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 4: chalk Ronald Jones is the long shot.

450
00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, I went, and I'm gonna talk about him more.

451
00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 2: My long shot is Sammy Watkins. I'm curious to get

452
00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 2: your opinion on him. I've found some twenty to one.

453
00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,119
Speaker 2: See if you can find twenty five thirty to one

454
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:32,040
Speaker 2: and remember props. It's a decentralized market, inefficient, it's and

455
00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:36,400
Speaker 2: we have tools for this on Action Network actionwork dot Com.

456
00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,639
Speaker 2: We have great tools where you can prop, line shop

457
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 2: and you can see some drastically different props. It's not

458
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 2: like a line or a total where it could be

459
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 2: just a little off, but you could see from MVP

460
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:52,679
Speaker 2: odds even yardage in the props that we're gonna get,

461
00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 2: so you can see dress at the different so you

462
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 2: know between fan duel and draftings or points at wherever.

463
00:20:58,240 --> 00:20:59,919
Speaker 2: So I took a shot Watkins. I think he's going

464
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,240
Speaker 2: to be healthy from everything that I've seen. He hasn't

465
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:05,720
Speaker 2: played in the last past two playoff games. He took

466
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,840
Speaker 2: a pay cut to stay with Kansas City. From a

467
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:13,640
Speaker 2: narrative perspective, I could see them drawing up something for him,

468
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 2: and then from it would make sense strategically. If the

469
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 2: Bucks try and take the Patriots approach and they double hill,

470
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:23,439
Speaker 2: you know they have someone try and follow him with

471
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:25,600
Speaker 2: his safety over top, and they bracket Kelsey. I mean,

472
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 2: that's got to be their focus, right. Their run defense

473
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 2: is already good. You got to try and take away Kelsero.

474
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 2: I don't know if you can, but that's what you

475
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,159
Speaker 2: have to try to do. So if Watkins is healthy

476
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 2: and he's when he is, he's clearly their best number two.

477
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,200
Speaker 2: He could have a big day not getting a lot

478
00:21:41,200 --> 00:21:45,000
Speaker 2: of attention, whether it's underneath some longer passes, and when

479
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 2: he's been in the lineup in the playoffs, he's been super,

480
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,959
Speaker 2: super productive for the Chiefs. Five playoff games in Kansas

481
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 2: City with Mahomes, Watkins has twenty four catches on thirty

482
00:21:56,800 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 2: four targets for four hundred and sixty four yards, So

483
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 2: he's averaging about five catches and one hundred yards, which

484
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 2: was almost his exact statline in last year's Super Bowl.

485
00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 2: I had five for ninety eight, So I took a

486
00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:14,680
Speaker 2: long shot on Watkins, and then my other one was

487
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 2: I went with Mike Evans. There's I think a greater

488
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 2: than fifty percent chance the Bucks start with the ball. Now,

489
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 2: I think that ultimately both teams would defer. It's the

490
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 2: strategically smart thing to do. But and the Chiefs always defer.

491
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 2: But the Bucks, I think they've lost every coin toss

492
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:32,359
Speaker 2: in the playoffs. Last few weeks of the regular season,

493
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 2: they did elect to receive. So I think there's a

494
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,960
Speaker 2: non zero chance that the Bucks do elect to receive.

495
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,880
Speaker 2: And I don't see the Chiefs electing to receive. Yeah,

496
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 2: so I think there's a greater than fifty percent chance

497
00:22:47,600 --> 00:22:49,639
Speaker 2: that Tampa would start with the ball. Whatever. I have

498
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,879
Speaker 2: Watkins on the Chiefs, I have Evans. I'm just taking

499
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 2: Brady's favorite red zone target. I'm not a huge fan

500
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 2: of this market. I really only bet this market in

501
00:22:57,119 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 2: the National Championship college football and in this Super Bowl.

502
00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 2: It's more for fun entertainment. So those are my two.

503
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:05,960
Speaker 4: I like that average called I like Watkins just real quick.

504
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 4: So one thing I think to keep in mind, and

505
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 4: this kind of goes throughout props, and you know this

506
00:23:11,200 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 4: obviously has to do with the game too, But if

507
00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,760
Speaker 4: you're betting Props and the Chiefs, you know, I know

508
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 4: when you're normally projecting when you're setting lines. We kind

509
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 4: of talked about this on the pod with with Sean

510
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 4: and Matt. But you're gonna you're gonna apply some regression

511
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:25,640
Speaker 4: to the mean, right, Like you're like, even if Tyreek

512
00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:27,960
Speaker 4: Hill averages, you know, one hundred and thirty yards per game,

513
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 4: you're not necessarily gonna put the prop line there, you know,

514
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 4: or project him there. But what we've seen in these playoffs,

515
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 4: and it's particularly with the Chiefs, is that you know there,

516
00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 4: you know, because it's for all the marbles, because you're

517
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:41,640
Speaker 4: not really you're you're not taking out a guy. Wait

518
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 4: if you get if you get a big or anything

519
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 4: like that. You know that regression is not necessarily like

520
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:48,160
Speaker 4: the regression you use for pretty much any other time

521
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:51,400
Speaker 4: in the season doesn't necessarily apply in the playoffs, especially

522
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 4: in these in these big games, and so like, look

523
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 4: at the Super Bowl last year, for example, we saw

524
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 4: the Chiefs. First of all, we saw Watkins weed the

525
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:03,560
Speaker 4: team in routes run even more than Hill. But you look,

526
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,520
Speaker 4: you look at the how the targets are spread out.

527
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:11,200
Speaker 4: Last Super Bowl, Tyreek kill fifteen, Sammy Watkins six, Travis

528
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 4: Kelcey six, Damian William six, Blake Bell, Darwin Thompson and

529
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,320
Speaker 4: mcole Hartmon had won each and that's it. So the

530
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 4: Chiefs will spread the like will concentrate the ball, and

531
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 4: like that's what that's what you get with their game plans.

532
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 4: They'll have a set idea of where they want to

533
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,640
Speaker 4: go with the ball, and their players are so good,

534
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 4: whether it's Hill, Kelsey, Watkins, you know, and obviously Mahomes

535
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 4: that they'll get the ball to those options. So I

536
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 4: think that generally speaking, like if there's a question of

537
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 4: like should I go over under with a player prop

538
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 4: outside of those four and that's why I think Watkins

539
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:42,720
Speaker 4: is included there, and I think he will be a

540
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:43,360
Speaker 4: part of the game plan.

541
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:44,239
Speaker 3: So that's why I like the call.

542
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 4: But you know, guys like DeMarcus Robinson, if he plays,

543
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,679
Speaker 4: you know, Hardman I think is the wild card. Like

544
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 4: you know, he went down to forty percent routes run

545
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 4: last game and Pringle actually was the guy that ran

546
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:54,959
Speaker 4: eighty percent.

547
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,560
Speaker 3: So you know, if if Watkins.

548
00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:02,719
Speaker 4: Is back, it is are Hardman and Robinson just kind

549
00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 4: of in that same bucket where they're gonna be like

550
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:08,400
Speaker 4: minor parts of the game plan. I would think probably yes,

551
00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 4: But Hardman because of his speed, He's kind of the

552
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,440
Speaker 4: wild card that could throw it off. But generally speaking,

553
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 4: I would say if they're not like like, I would

554
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 4: still go over got a guy like Hill or Kelsey

555
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 4: if forced. And even though, like you know, maybe the

556
00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 4: projections don't line up exactly. So that's why I think

557
00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 4: like Watkins, he's in that top three, and I think

558
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 4: Clyde Edward Hilaire is going to be that guy over

559
00:25:29,800 --> 00:25:32,000
Speaker 4: Daryl Williams. Even the last week, you know, we saw

560
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:33,440
Speaker 4: Williams near the end of the game kind of run

561
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:33,880
Speaker 4: out the clock.

562
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 3: So that's my thoughts there.

563
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:38,440
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573
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 4: physically located in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, or West Virginia.

574
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:10,679
Speaker 3: Please gamble responsibly.

575
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 4: Gambling problem called one eight hundred to five two two

576
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:14,960
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577
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 4: hundred gambler in New Jersey and West Virginia, or one

578
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,639
Speaker 4: eight hundred and nine with it in Indiana. Promo offer

579
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 4: not available in the Vauder of Pennsylvania. As far as MVP,

580
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 4: for me, it's if it's a Bucks player, it's easy

581
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 4: for me. I would go Brady because, first of all,

582
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 4: two to one, I just really like he didn't get

583
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 4: it last MVPI.

584
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:35,400
Speaker 3: We actually did the draft.

585
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 4: In twenty eighteen and Edelman was one of my long

586
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 4: shot picks. He ended up getting it.

587
00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:40,680
Speaker 3: So let's see if I can kind of reproduce that luck.

588
00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 4: My long shot this year is not as good, I

589
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 4: don't think, but I think Brady's a great pick on

590
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:49,040
Speaker 4: the Bucks. I think I would stay away from defensive

591
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 4: players more or less because it's just you have Brady

592
00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 4: versus Mahomes. I think that, first of it's just very

593
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,440
Speaker 4: unlikely that like a defensive player is going to be

594
00:26:57,480 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 4: able to have the kind of game that like, like,

595
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 4: for example, let's say somebody on the Bucks plays really well,

596
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 4: like uh gets like a fumble.

597
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,280
Speaker 3: Return or pick return or whatever.

598
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,199
Speaker 4: It's like, well, now you're just giving them ball right

599
00:27:08,240 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 4: back to Mahomes with another possession. So it's kind of

600
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 4: I just think it's not like one. It doesn't have

601
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:14,640
Speaker 4: the potential to be one sided enough. And it's too

602
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 4: there're too many good offensive players for a defensive player

603
00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:19,920
Speaker 4: to actually win one, even maybe if maybe they should.

604
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 4: I just think that it's gonna kind of skew toward

605
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:26,360
Speaker 4: Brady or Mahomes in like a close call. So it's

606
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 4: hands off for me. I do like the value on Brady,

607
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:31,680
Speaker 4: uh for the for the Bucks, and then I think

608
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:33,840
Speaker 4: for the Chiefs, you're just kind of looking You're kind

609
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:37,040
Speaker 4: of looking at Okay, well, the Mahomes is the obvious choice.

610
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 4: But if he doesn't win, you know what, what do

611
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:41,400
Speaker 4: we think would happen?

612
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:41,720
Speaker 2: Would it?

613
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 3: Because a running back is gonna win instead? Doubtful?

614
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 4: So I would probably I would probably look at again

615
00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,080
Speaker 4: just Riek or Kelsey or maybe a long shot with

616
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,600
Speaker 4: with Watkins. But yeah, I think that's that's how kind

617
00:27:54,600 --> 00:27:56,119
Speaker 4: of looking at it. I think Brady to me is

618
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 4: like the best value you know, just.

619
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 2: To kind of recap, we haven't seen a running back

620
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 2: win it since nineteen ninety eight when Terrell Davis won it.

621
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 2: Since then, it's been dominated by quarterbacks. Fourteen of the

622
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 2: twenty two have been won by quarterbacks Brady one four

623
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:13,679
Speaker 2: of those. The other eight have been evenly split between

624
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 2: defenders and wide receivers. It's hard to envision this game

625
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 2: where a defender wins it with a total of fifty

626
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,240
Speaker 2: six and quarter you know, Bradium Homes. It's very hard

627
00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 2: to envision anyone other than Bradium Homes win it with

628
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 2: two marque quarterbacks in which should be a higher scoring game.

629
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 2: I just don't see one defense completely dominating this game

630
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 2: with a star that's the clear choice. Like the Ravens

631
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 2: against the Giants, right like ray Lewis won it because

632
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 2: their defense dominated. That just can't see that playing out now.

633
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 2: Defender could win it if it's a little lower scoring

634
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 2: and they just happen to get like a pick six

635
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 2: and two fumble recoveries and ten tac like still be hard,

636
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,640
Speaker 2: but you're trying to guess like where an obong ball

637
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:56,560
Speaker 2: is going to go. I think overall it's like less

638
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 2: than a five percent chance the defensive player wins it,

639
00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:02,400
Speaker 2: and any one share of that. Trying to guess, like

640
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 2: I need like two hundred to one on I would

641
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 2: need literally like two hundred to one on maybe Pierre

642
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 2: Paul or something, and maybe I would throw a couple

643
00:29:12,040 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 2: of dollars on that, but he's I think one hundred

644
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 2: and fifty to one. In order to get me to

645
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 2: do it, I need like five hundred and one on

646
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 2: one of the key defenders. No thank you, And a

647
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 2: lot of the defenders that have won it, they're not

648
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 2: like like Dexter Jackson, Malcolm Smith. They just randomly the

649
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,959
Speaker 2: balls found them a couple of times. So I've crossed

650
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 2: out defenders. The only player I think the Chiefs are

651
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 2: ultimately going to win this game. Again, this is just

652
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 2: like first touchdown bet. It's just an action for action

653
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 2: fun bet for me. I did take a long shot

654
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 2: on Watkins. It's hard for me to say it, but

655
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,960
Speaker 2: I've found some eighty to one. I threw a couple

656
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 2: of dollars on it, and the only one that I

657
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 2: legitimately the only player that can legitimately see winning it

658
00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,080
Speaker 2: on the Chiefs if the Chiefs win, other than Mahomes,

659
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 2: you know, Besides, if it's a complete fluky game or

660
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 2: fluke defensive performance, is Tyreek kill. And so I did

661
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 2: play some Tyregon. The reason that is, you know, like

662
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 2: say Kelsey has a big day, and this even applies

663
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:09,000
Speaker 2: to Watkins. I just played the number. You know, say

664
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 2: Kelsey has a big day, a huge day, he's one

665
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty yards and a couple of touchdowns. Like

666
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 2: that's also Mahomes. He's probably gonna have other numbers of

667
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:22,160
Speaker 2: somewhere else. Why I played Tyreek Hill we had our draft.

668
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 2: Why I chose him first overall is I think that

669
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 2: the the Chiefs are not gonna be able to run

670
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 2: the ball. I don't even think they're gonna try to

671
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 2: run the ball. They threw it forty three times over

672
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 2: the first three quarters in the first meeting with Tampa,

673
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 2: and you just really can't run against the Bucks. Maybe

674
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 2: four Net has like four touchdowns, he vultures four touchdowns.

675
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:45,120
Speaker 2: That's like, and the Bucks win. That's like a back

676
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 2: that could win it. I don't see it. But with

677
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 2: the Chiefs, the Chiefs win. Hill, he could have a

678
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 2: big day through the air. You know, he had over

679
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 2: two hundred yards in the first quarter. He always can

680
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 2: do that, but again those are mahomes yards. But where

681
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 2: the where Hill comes in is he also could have

682
00:31:01,360 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 2: a big day in a modified running game. So I

683
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:06,640
Speaker 2: think that the way that they're going to try and

684
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 2: run the ball quote unquote is through screens, through end

685
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 2: to rounds, through you know, shovel passes, reverses, and a

686
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 2: couple of trick plays and like just use their receivers.

687
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 2: They could use Hardman in this way too in the

688
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 2: running game, just to get him more touches. They could,

689
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 2: you know, he could break a long run and then

690
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 2: on top of that and this is a really long shot,

691
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 2: but again this is the fun a fun bet is

692
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 2: you never know. Andy Reid could put Tyreek kill back

693
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 2: for a big punt return. And if Hill is having

694
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:41,040
Speaker 2: a big day offensively and then returns a punt for

695
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: a touchdown that like wins the game or you know

696
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,240
Speaker 2: is a key punt return for a touchdown, he would

697
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 2: have a really good shot to win it. If he

698
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,239
Speaker 2: adds a special teams touchdown. He hasn't really return punchs yet,

699
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:52,040
Speaker 2: but the Chiefs have not been good returning punts. The

700
00:31:52,040 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 2: Bucks are not good at covering punts, So who knows,

701
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:56,960
Speaker 2: maybe he throws them back there. So that's who I

702
00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 2: rolled with for MVP couple for fun bets.

703
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, I think Yeah, Tyreek J just stands out

704
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 4: is and I think he also just has more of

705
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 4: the wow factor in general if you're if you're voting

706
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 4: it like it comes down to a close call, like

707
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 4: Tyreek K with the backflip in the first game and

708
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 4: the like you know, the two hundred yards quarter like

709
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 4: he just had, Like where Kelsey, It's probably gonna just

710
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 4: be like twelve yeard past telve year past twelve paths.

711
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's that's kind of I agree with that.

712
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 3: I like Tyreek and I do think and we could.

713
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:26,120
Speaker 4: Kind of get into this along with the with the

714
00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 4: with the six pack picks. But I do think that

715
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 4: modified run game is gonna come into play. We saw

716
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 4: Kelsey get a carry ast super Bowl, we saw Hardman

717
00:32:33,120 --> 00:32:34,640
Speaker 4: with the big run last week.

718
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 3: I do think we see a couple of those.

719
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 6: I hope you're enjoying this great Action network podcast. I

720
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 6: want to make sure you know about the locked On

721
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 6: podcast network. Locked On has a daily podcast on your

722
00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 6: favorite team.

723
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,320
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

724
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 2: own of the Dallas marriage. We can everybody for the

725
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:51,360
Speaker 2: Lockdown Lakers podcast.

726
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 3: Let's go.

727
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 6: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

728
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:57,600
Speaker 6: know your team better than anyone and give you the

729
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,959
Speaker 6: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app, search locked

730
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 6: On your favorite team, subscribe to your locked on podcast.

731
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 4: All right, let's get into it, stut. Let's crack open

732
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 4: the super Bowl six.

733
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 5: Pack Thursday for action.

734
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 1: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

735
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,560
Speaker 4: You're you have a weed and I essentially need to

736
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 4: run the table with these. We're gonna do props for

737
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:28,680
Speaker 4: the past the six pack this week since there's only

738
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 4: one game, so it should be fun. But if you

739
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 4: want to tell the people exactly what that's going on

740
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 4: at the score, I'm not even Yeah, you're up.

741
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 2: I'm up to. I gave you a chance to get

742
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 2: back in it and you did, just like you gave

743
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 2: me a chance to sweep in the Super Bowl last year.

744
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, we're gonna go with four props each, and

745
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,120
Speaker 2: then we could do kind of a live We'll put

746
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 2: it on our phones or piece of paper. We'll do

747
00:33:51,640 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 2: a lot. At the end, we'll do a we'll talk

748
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 2: about how we take the game plays out, yeah, and

749
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 2: we'll do a live reveal. We can each put on

750
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 2: our phone the toe. There's some game theory about the

751
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 2: total number of points that'll be scored in the game.

752
00:34:04,120 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 2: That'll be the tie breaker in case, you know, you

753
00:34:06,720 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 2: sweep and I get too, and we end up tied.

754
00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:12,360
Speaker 2: Whoever gets closest will win that. So we'll go four props.

755
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:12,800
Speaker 2: Let's go.

756
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 3: Let's get at You're up first, all right.

757
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 2: For my first pick in the Super Bowl Sunday six pack,

758
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:24,800
Speaker 2: which will end up being an eight pack, I'm going with, well,

759
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 2: I'll just finish this off. I'll go with Sammy Watkins'

760
00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 2: longest reception over seventeen and a half yards. I also

761
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 2: played some over thirty six and a half receiving yards.

762
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 2: I like that up to forty. I've already talked about Watkins.

763
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna be healthy. It's a risk that

764
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 2: he's not, that he's a decoy, that maybe he doesn't

765
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 2: even play, but I'm assuming that he is. Plus DeMarcus Robinson,

766
00:34:46,800 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 2: he's on the COVID list for close contact. Probably will play,

767
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 2: but he hasn't been practicing this week, so add that

768
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 2: in as well. But when Watkins is healthy, is clearly

769
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 2: their best. Number two. He's had huge playoff games with

770
00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 2: Kansas City longest catch over seventeen and a half. Here's

771
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 2: in his five playoff games. Already talked about how great

772
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 2: he's been, averaging one hundred yards and five catches. Here's

773
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 2: his longest catches in all five of those games. Thirty fifty,

774
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:15,439
Speaker 2: thirty eight, sixty and forty eight cleared them with ease.

775
00:35:15,520 --> 00:35:18,320
Speaker 2: What he would have went over his receiving yards total

776
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 2: with just those longest catches in four of the five games.

777
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 2: And uh, like I said, I think that the Chiefs

778
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:27,760
Speaker 2: are going to be focused on taking away Hill and Kelsey.

779
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:31,280
Speaker 2: I think he can get behind the defense, as number

780
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:36,239
Speaker 2: two receivers have done against the Bucks all playoffs. Number

781
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 2: two receivers have had a field day against Tampa in

782
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 2: the playoffs. V As Scantling four for one fifteen in

783
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 2: a touch long fifty yards, tray Que Smith three for

784
00:35:48,120 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 2: eighty five, two touchdowns long fifty six. Sims for Washington

785
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 2: seven for one oh four in a touchdown long thirty six.

786
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 2: So everything lines up here. The only risk, well, I

787
00:36:02,239 --> 00:36:03,719
Speaker 2: think you're getting a lot of value in a lot

788
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 2: of the Watkins numbers is his health. We don't really

789
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 2: know what we're gonna get, but I'll close out my

790
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 2: Watkins love with over longest catchover seventeen and a half yards.

791
00:36:13,920 --> 00:36:14,839
Speaker 3: I think he will play.

792
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 4: And I think that's kind of the way you beat

793
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 4: the Bucks too, if you look at them.

794
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,359
Speaker 3: And Warren Sharp actually broke this down in his right up.

795
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 4: But you know, when you're looking at them, especially on

796
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 4: second downs, from like nine to fifteen yard average depth

797
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 4: of target, they're giving up, you know, nine point one

798
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 4: yards per attempt, sixteen to twenty nine, they're given up

799
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 4: fifteen point five seventy three percent success rate their success

800
00:36:37,000 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 4: rate on everything over a three yard pass in terms

801
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 4: of average you know, average depth is you know, in

802
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 4: the sixties and seventies, and then it's thirty five percent

803
00:36:44,680 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 4: you know, near the line of scrimmage and zero percent

804
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:51,239
Speaker 4: over thirty yards. So like that intermediate area I think

805
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 4: is where you're gonna really do some damage because that

806
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 4: front seven is so good if you just you know,

807
00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 4: dump it off to the running backer or anything like that.

808
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 4: So I do think will be used in that area.

809
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 4: And that's you know, generally, you know he's gonna be

810
00:37:05,000 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 4: single covered if we saw Alan Wizard. I think it

811
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 4: was also catch like a fifty yard bomb against the

812
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:15,360
Speaker 4: Bucks and last week in addition to all that Valdez scalting.

813
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,920
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think Watkins definitely has some value that only,

814
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 4: like you said, the only reason his number his lines

815
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 4: are higher is because of the of the injuries.

816
00:37:23,440 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 2: Many you had a cheeseburger in celebration of the AFC

817
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:28,399
Speaker 2: Championship game?

818
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 5: Is that true?

819
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,920
Speaker 2: I did good one just one Pambados thick.

820
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:35,239
Speaker 4: For my first pick and the second overall pick in

821
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 4: the Super Bowl six pack. I am going with under

822
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:43,880
Speaker 4: forty five and a half rushing and receiving yards total.

823
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 4: And I like Williams unders for a couple of reasons.

824
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 3: This is not the only one.

825
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:51,399
Speaker 4: But last week against the Bills or two weeks ago,

826
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,400
Speaker 4: I should say against the Bills, we saw Williams kind

827
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 4: of quote be the closer to close out the game. Uh,

828
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,200
Speaker 4: this week, I think in this kind of game, I

829
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:01,799
Speaker 4: just don't think the the Chiefs are going to run

830
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 4: the football, even if they are in a situation wait

831
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:06,399
Speaker 4: in the game where they're trying to close it out.

832
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 4: I don't think that you're gonna see a ton a

833
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 4: ton of actor for these backs. I think they'll continue

834
00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 4: to kind of throw it short and do some things.

835
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,840
Speaker 4: And you look at that first matchup, even with the

836
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 4: Chiefs going up twenty seven to ten in the first matchup,

837
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 4: we still have their running backs combined get just sixteen

838
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:32,240
Speaker 4: total carries and just three total catches. Now, Williams missed

839
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:35,600
Speaker 4: that game, but it was Edwards Aware and Le'Veon Bell.

840
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 4: You had just thirty nine yards on twelve touches for

841
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 4: Edwards Dulaire and then twenty four yards on seven touches

842
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 4: for Bell. Now, I think in a normal game, Edwards

843
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 4: Aware still sees more of the work. I think that

844
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,680
Speaker 4: Williams was kind of the game script last week, so

845
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 4: you'd kind of put you put Williams into that wayveon

846
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:59,960
Speaker 4: belt role where again just five carries twenty two yard,

847
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 4: two catches for ten yards. And you look at Williams

848
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 4: and he ran just thirty one percent of the routes

849
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,919
Speaker 4: against Buffalo compared to forty nine percent for Edwards the ware.

850
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 4: And I think against this Bucks run defense, you know, GARYL.

851
00:39:12,200 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 4: Williams is kind of the grinder, the between the tackles downhill.

852
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:18,319
Speaker 4: You know, if you need a couple of yards you

853
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,919
Speaker 4: go to Williams. I don't think they're gonna use him

854
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 4: that much, even if when they do run the ball,

855
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:25,560
Speaker 4: because I think you're gonna want to have some more

856
00:39:26,320 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 4: of that Edwards alair juice, maybe get on the edge,

857
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:30,800
Speaker 4: maybe make a guy miss, the same reason that you

858
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:33,360
Speaker 4: would kind of you kind of suggested Stuck that you

859
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 4: think you're gonna we're gonna see some some some modified

860
00:39:36,440 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 4: run games, some Tyreek Hill, some hardman. That's the same

861
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,920
Speaker 4: reason I think you see more Edwards Alaire than Williams

862
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 4: in this game, even though you saw more Williams than

863
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,200
Speaker 4: Edwards a Laire in the first matchup. So I like

864
00:39:46,280 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 4: there there's another Williams prop I like as well. But

865
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 4: first of all, I'm going under with the forty five

866
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 4: and a half yards because I think rushing wise, you

867
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,880
Speaker 4: have Tampa Bay number one run defense averaging.

868
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 3: Along well for four yards per carry, but you also

869
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:57,399
Speaker 3: have Williams not.

870
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 4: Really running many pass routes, and Tampa Bay has been

871
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:03,840
Speaker 4: efficient in stopping in stopping those past close to the

872
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 4: line of scrimmage.

873
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:06,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree with you, and you're gone with

874
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 2: another Williams prope in this six pack, right, So I'll

875
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 2: save my thoughts for that when you mentioned that. For

876
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 2: my second pick of the Super Bowl Sunday six pack,

877
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 2: I'm going with Scotty Miller under twenty and a half

878
00:40:21,239 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 2: receiving yards. This number, by the way, you could find

879
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 2: it at fourteen and a half, seventeen and a half,

880
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:32,120
Speaker 2: nineteen and a half, twenty and a half obviously really important,

881
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,200
Speaker 2: and it's obviously this bet is not for the faint

882
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 2: of art. It could lose it on one play at

883
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:38,960
Speaker 2: any time. I also played some under one and a

884
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 2: half heavily juiced receptions. I just think this number is

885
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 2: too high, and the reason it is because of recency

886
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 2: buyas we've seen Scotty lower at that long touchdown at

887
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,640
Speaker 2: the end of the first half, inexcusable by pree Bay's defense.

888
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 2: I mean, I still am shocked by it. And he's

889
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:55,240
Speaker 2: had some good games in the postseason, but he's played

890
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 2: in nineteen games this year, including the playoffs. He would

891
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 2: have gone under twenty and a half eleven of those

892
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 2: nineteen times, and that includes a number of games in

893
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:09,319
Speaker 2: Tampa didn't have its full arsenal receivers. And I'm making

894
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 2: the assumtion that Antonio Brown is going to play. Based

895
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 2: on what I've read today. He was doubtful five days ago,

896
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 2: but I think he's s treading towards being able to play.

897
00:41:17,280 --> 00:41:20,680
Speaker 2: Don't forget also about Tyler Johnson. For what it's worth,

898
00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:24,800
Speaker 2: Miller had zero catches and one target on eleven snaps

899
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 2: the first time these teams met, and that was from

900
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 2: in a game game script where Brady threw the ball

901
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 2: forty one times and they were behind by three scores

902
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,359
Speaker 2: in the first quarter. There could be a scenario where

903
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 2: the Bucks come out, they control the clock early, it's

904
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:43,280
Speaker 2: lower scoring, and Brady has a lot fewer pass attempts

905
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,520
Speaker 2: than he did in that first meeting and Miller did nothing.

906
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,919
Speaker 2: So I think that this is just way too high

907
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 2: based on a couple recent postseason performances, and if you

908
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:58,399
Speaker 2: go back and look at the entire body of work,

909
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 2: I think there's value in this number. Again, I could

910
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:03,000
Speaker 2: lose on one play at any point in time, But

911
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 2: I played Scotty Miller under twenty and a half receiving yards,

912
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:09,279
Speaker 2: I would I would play the under seventeen and a

913
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 2: half and under fourteen and a half smaller, and definitely

914
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:13,680
Speaker 2: under one and a half catches.

915
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:16,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, a lot of times with these guys,

916
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:18,440
Speaker 4: I I'll even I know people don't like to do

917
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 4: it because the juice is higher, but I would atways

918
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 4: get like hedged a little bit with the one and

919
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,000
Speaker 4: a half catches because so Miller ran twenty routes last week,

920
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 4: and yeah, he had that one big catch you know

921
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 4: for the but outside that, he just had one other catch.

922
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 3: And that's kind of been the story with him.

923
00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 4: It's he's not going to be a high volume guy

924
00:42:35,719 --> 00:42:37,200
Speaker 4: if he's on even if he's on the field, and

925
00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:39,399
Speaker 4: you know, he ran fifty four percent of the routes

926
00:42:39,480 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 4: last week, I think there is a good chance that

927
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,879
Speaker 4: Brown's back so that that like we decreases. So yeah,

928
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 4: I think Miller and and it just kind of goes

929
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:48,320
Speaker 4: into the theme of I think some of these lower

930
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 4: end guys, even you know with the bucks, you know,

931
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 4: you know, you're not probably going to get overs with

932
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 4: some of these guys on the you know, like the

933
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 4: fourth fifth receiver. I think these are the guys to

934
00:42:58,040 --> 00:43:00,399
Speaker 4: fade in moments like this. I think, you know, Tom

935
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:01,800
Speaker 4: Brady's gonna we saw.

936
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:03,399
Speaker 3: How much he likes to go. Mike Evans even maybe

937
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 3: when he shouldn't.

938
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 4: And I think Godwin is going to be it's gonna

939
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 4: be a you know, somewhat heavily targeted once again, even

940
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:12,520
Speaker 4: though I think Kansas City can match up a little

941
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 4: better than than Green Bay. But yeah, I like I

942
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:19,280
Speaker 4: like Scotty Miller and kind of all those those types

943
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 4: under in this game.

944
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 2: I think there's a good chance you hit both and then.

945
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 2: But also if you play both, you're kind of hedged

946
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 2: against just that one random long catch that he could have. Yeah,

947
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,399
Speaker 2: and also he's had a couple of games where he's

948
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:35,120
Speaker 2: had like two catches for six yards just on you know,

949
00:43:35,120 --> 00:43:37,279
Speaker 2: if they're running the clock out late or just a

950
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 2: quick hitch if Kansas City's blitzing. So you're kind of

951
00:43:40,440 --> 00:43:43,360
Speaker 2: hedged against, you know, both of those scenarios where you

952
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:44,640
Speaker 2: can go one in one. But I think there's a

953
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:45,520
Speaker 2: good shot you hit both.

954
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:47,840
Speaker 3: Yes, they're all right.

955
00:43:47,880 --> 00:43:51,360
Speaker 4: For my second pick and the fourth overall pick of

956
00:43:51,400 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 4: the six pack, I am going with Wonard Fournette. Over

957
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:57,879
Speaker 4: three and a half receptions, you see a juiced up

958
00:43:58,000 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 4: maybe one fifty at some books. I think it's worth

959
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 4: that I haven't projected at four and a half receptions

960
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 4: and I think that this number may be coming from

961
00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:09,560
Speaker 4: using his season long usage a little more heavily and

962
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 4: win setting the line. But if you look at the playoffs,

963
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,520
Speaker 4: in the three games, and granted Ronald Jones didn't play

964
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:18,959
Speaker 4: in one of them, he had zero percent routes run,

965
00:44:19,080 --> 00:44:23,000
Speaker 4: but Fournette seventy nine percent routes run per dropback in

966
00:44:23,000 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 4: that game, then sixty eight to twelve in the two

967
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:29,360
Speaker 4: games in the Saints game, and then sixty five for

968
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 4: Fournette routes run per drop back, sixteen percent for Jones,

969
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:36,200
Speaker 4: three percent for the Sean McCoy last week. So Fournette

970
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 4: has been sixty five percent or higher in each of

971
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:43,520
Speaker 4: the past three games. And remember he's he's the guy

972
00:44:43,520 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 4: that they specifically said Arian's like around mid season, was like, hey,

973
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:49,000
Speaker 4: Fourette is our passing game down back now, and that

974
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:53,320
Speaker 4: really hasn't changed Before that. He had seven percent thirty

975
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,480
Speaker 4: one to thirty seven, zero percent in terms of routes

976
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 4: run per drop back since that comment. Fifty six, sixty four,

977
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:02,080
Speaker 4: fifty nine, thirty nine, fifty three, forty four thirty forty

978
00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 4: seventy nine, sixty eight, sixty five. So uh, he's been

979
00:45:05,560 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 4: He's been one of the kind of the most consistent

980
00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 4: UH pass catching threats for Tom Brady. And they they

981
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:14,400
Speaker 4: also I heard it talk about on the telecast. I

982
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 4: didn't know this, but they said that half around the

983
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,600
Speaker 4: bye week, you know, Brady kind of came to the

984
00:45:19,640 --> 00:45:22,560
Speaker 4: Arians and they got more of those running back outlet

985
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 4: passes installed.

986
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:25,920
Speaker 2: And so I think from the from his from the

987
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 2: New England Playbook basically right right.

988
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:30,600
Speaker 4: And you know, and that's that's something that if you

989
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:32,759
Speaker 4: watch Tom Brady over the course of his career, you

990
00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 4: know that that's huge for him. You know, the deep routes.

991
00:45:35,840 --> 00:45:37,920
Speaker 4: It's not that he has a problem with arm strength

992
00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 4: or anything like that. It's just that he's such a

993
00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 4: smart quarterback that he instinctively knows sometimes before the ball

994
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:46,239
Speaker 4: is even snapped whether he's going to have to you know,

995
00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 4: trying to check out and go underneath or or that

996
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:51,680
Speaker 4: or receiver is going to be opened downfield. And so

997
00:45:51,719 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 4: that's why I think those are really important. And you know,

998
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:58,799
Speaker 4: in the playoffs for Nette, four catches against Washington, five

999
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:02,759
Speaker 4: against this five against the Packers. He did have a

1000
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 4: couple of drops in a couple of those games, but

1001
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,800
Speaker 4: he's gone over three in each of the playoff games,

1002
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 4: didn't really do it much in the regular season, only

1003
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,319
Speaker 4: think it was three times. But I think that's this

1004
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:16,759
Speaker 4: number is a little short because of that using that

1005
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 4: full season sample when it's obvious, like when they get

1006
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,640
Speaker 4: in the passing situations, now he is going to be

1007
00:46:21,680 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 4: the guy. And I think his receiving numbers are a

1008
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 4: little more safe than his rushing numbers, even because I

1009
00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:29,160
Speaker 4: think those are more gamescript dependent. And I know you're

1010
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:30,480
Speaker 4: going to talk about a guy who you like, who

1011
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 4: I think could cut into those rushing numbers, But like,

1012
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:36,200
Speaker 4: I don't think Fournett's necessarily he had nineteen, seventeen and

1013
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 4: twelve rushing attempts. I don't know if he gets there

1014
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 4: against Kansas City, even with their shaky run defense, but

1015
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 4: if those go down, his routes will only go up.

1016
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,680
Speaker 4: So yeah, like Fournette over three and a half receptions.

1017
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 4: I would even play it at four at if you

1018
00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 4: have like the one, ten, one fifteen juice nothing over that.

1019
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 4: But I have it at four and a half, So

1020
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:56,759
Speaker 4: I think there's a good chance that he gets to

1021
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 4: five catches.

1022
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:01,279
Speaker 2: Yep, I agree. Look, we didn't even talk about I'll

1023
00:47:01,280 --> 00:47:03,279
Speaker 2: be on this as well. I'll my right up on

1024
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:05,880
Speaker 2: my favorite props while you're listening to this, all have

1025
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 2: that up on Thursday or Friday. Yeah, and we haven't

1026
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:12,000
Speaker 2: talked about the matchup. I mean, the Chiefs stay invited,

1027
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:14,879
Speaker 2: and they their linebackers aren't great in coverage, they also

1028
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 2: invite you to throw to running backs. I think they're good.

1029
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:19,359
Speaker 2: Spec is gonna bring the blitz. He likes to bring

1030
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,839
Speaker 2: the blitz. He's gonna blitz at times. The checkdowns. There's

1031
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 2: gonna be times where Brady's gonna chuck it down. And

1032
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 2: I think the Chiefs were dead last in the NFL

1033
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:31,479
Speaker 2: at defending running backs. It's one of the reasons why

1034
00:47:32,120 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 2: I was on Singletary, who I assumed would get eighty

1035
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 2: five percent of the snaps and catch all the balls

1036
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 2: that he didn't end up catching but someone else did.

1037
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:44,520
Speaker 2: And as long as Purnett doesn't like drop the first two,

1038
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 2: I think he'll be in good shape here. So I

1039
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 2: comp betiely agree. I'm on this as well. They are

1040
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 2: what we thought they were all right. For my third

1041
00:47:54,680 --> 00:47:59,400
Speaker 2: pick of this Sunday six pack and fifth overall you

1042
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:02,280
Speaker 2: already ellude to it, I'm going with Ronald Jones over

1043
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:06,480
Speaker 2: eight and a half rush attempts minus one oh five

1044
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:12,360
Speaker 2: at bet MGM ificialts provider the action of our podcast. Look, Leonard,

1045
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 2: this is again a recency bias, which is what I'm

1046
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 2: trying to plan to. Leonard Furnett is getting all the

1047
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 2: love because he's had huge playoff games. He's averaging one

1048
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:22,319
Speaker 2: hundred yards from over one hundred yards from scrimmage and

1049
00:48:22,400 --> 00:48:25,440
Speaker 2: a touchdown in the three playoff games that the Bucks

1050
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 2: have played. Playoff Lenny, Lenny, it's Leonard. Like I told

1051
00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 2: you before, I must have forgot playoff Lenny. It's all

1052
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 2: everyone's talking about. So I think Ronald Jones is just

1053
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:41,359
Speaker 2: not getting enough love in the market. And I think

1054
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 2: I've heard people say like in DFS too. I don't

1055
00:48:43,120 --> 00:48:44,640
Speaker 2: really know much about it, but he's like priced to

1056
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:45,880
Speaker 2: like two thousand.

1057
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's like twenty two hundred.

1058
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 4: He's like the play he's like, I mean, he's been

1059
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:51,839
Speaker 4: getting doubleed to touch his last four games anyway, So yeah,

1060
00:48:51,880 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 4: he's a.

1061
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:59,440
Speaker 2: Great fac Despite the emergence and flash of Leonard Fournette

1062
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:03,479
Speaker 2: during the playof you said it, he had he missed

1063
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:05,839
Speaker 2: the Wilker under an injury, but he had twenty one

1064
00:49:05,880 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 2: snaps in the divisional round. They had eighteen snaps in

1065
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:11,879
Speaker 2: the conference championship round. He had at least ten rush

1066
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:15,960
Speaker 2: attempts in both games, ten and one, thirteen in the other.

1067
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:19,920
Speaker 2: And this is, you know, we know a week Chiefs

1068
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:22,879
Speaker 2: run defense. I think that Tampa there's a chance they

1069
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:25,799
Speaker 2: come out here and they try and establish the run

1070
00:49:25,840 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 2: early on. We've seen that a couple times throughout the year,

1071
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:31,799
Speaker 2: trying to keep the ball to Mahomes's hands. Regardless, Look,

1072
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 2: he had nine carries in the regular season meeting with

1073
00:49:34,440 --> 00:49:37,240
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. In that game they were down three scores

1074
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:39,239
Speaker 2: in the first quarter, like they had there was from

1075
00:49:39,480 --> 00:49:43,960
Speaker 2: a complete come from behind script the entire time. So

1076
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 2: I think this line should be at ten ish. And

1077
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 2: he's still getting the snaps, he's still getting his carries,

1078
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:55,719
Speaker 2: not getting any of the receptions, which we louse to

1079
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 2: which is why I like for net over receptions. But

1080
00:49:57,880 --> 00:49:59,839
Speaker 2: I think this should be closer to ten. So give

1081
00:49:59,840 --> 00:50:02,400
Speaker 2: me Jones over eight and a half rush attempts.

1082
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, Jones, It's it's exactly true.

1083
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 4: It's just the what's happened with Fournette is kind of

1084
00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 4: depressing his value, I think, and I think he's he's

1085
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 4: great only like not for just like carries, but just

1086
00:50:13,960 --> 00:50:16,720
Speaker 4: any kind of long shot prop just because you're getting

1087
00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:19,560
Speaker 4: the books are setting his odds essentially based on these

1088
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:22,319
Speaker 4: you know, eight and a half carries, right, So, uh,

1089
00:50:22,360 --> 00:50:24,479
Speaker 4: you're seeing value just all over the board for Jones.

1090
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:25,799
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like it.

1091
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 2: First touchdown ye yeah, yeah.

1092
00:50:28,120 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 4: And and really you know the Bucks like to run

1093
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:33,799
Speaker 4: the ball in first down, so you know if if

1094
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 4: they're going to continue to do that, like Jones is

1095
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:38,360
Speaker 4: going to be a part of that, I think regardless.

1096
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:40,560
Speaker 3: So I think the only way, the only way.

1097
00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:42,960
Speaker 4: You this probably doesn't come through is if there's just

1098
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:46,880
Speaker 4: massive Chiefs uh, you know, offense in the first quarter

1099
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 4: and you know they get the ball first, they go

1100
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 4: downscore touchdown. Maybe Tampa Bay has like a three an

1101
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 4: hour or quick out and then Kansas City gets up

1102
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 4: like big, Like that's that's the only way. But I

1103
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:58,319
Speaker 4: mean generally you're seeing close, closer games, uh in the

1104
00:50:58,360 --> 00:51:00,359
Speaker 4: Super Bowl. So I think it's a good I think

1105
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:02,720
Speaker 4: it's a good point. I think, yeah, Jones's undervalue throughout

1106
00:51:02,719 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 4: the market, But.

1107
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 2: We saw it. We did see that in the first meeting.

1108
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 2: The Chief swept seventeen to nothing right away, and Joan

1109
00:51:10,320 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 2: still got nine carries.

1110
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:14,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, but that was before that was when Fournette was

1111
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:16,840
Speaker 4: still like not the he wasn't getting like yeah.

1112
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:19,480
Speaker 2: For net only had three. But I'm just saying someone

1113
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:22,680
Speaker 2: had nine carries and that was a complete blowout from

1114
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:24,359
Speaker 2: the very beginning, which I don't think we're going to see.

1115
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 2: As you said, where are you going next?

1116
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 4: So for my last one, I kind of alluded to this,

1117
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:30,120
Speaker 4: but I'm going Daryl Williams under eight and a half

1118
00:51:30,320 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 4: carries as well.

1119
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:33,319
Speaker 3: And this is another one. It's a little bit tied

1120
00:51:33,360 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 3: to game script.

1121
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:37,360
Speaker 4: But if you look at what happened in Chiefs Bills,

1122
00:51:37,680 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 4: Daryl Williams had thirteen carries for fifty two yards. He

1123
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 4: cried ed Dulaier had six carries for seven yards. Now

1124
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:50,439
Speaker 4: you look at that and say, oh, Darrel Williams took over.

1125
00:51:50,640 --> 00:51:53,400
Speaker 4: He's the number one back. But so there are nineteen

1126
00:51:53,480 --> 00:51:58,880
Speaker 4: running back carries Daryl Williams. Of his thirteen carries, eleven

1127
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 4: were the last eleven running back carries of the game

1128
00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:05,640
Speaker 4: for Kansas City. So ten of Williams carries came in

1129
00:52:05,680 --> 00:52:09,400
Speaker 4: the fourth quarter, when we know the game was already

1130
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:11,839
Speaker 4: well out of hand. Now, could this game get well

1131
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 4: out of hand? Yeah, but we're talking about thirty eight

1132
00:52:14,880 --> 00:52:17,840
Speaker 4: to fifteen. The Chiefs were leading, and so Edwards Alaire

1133
00:52:17,840 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 4: doesn't get another carry in that game. If you look

1134
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:21,759
Speaker 4: at the first match between these two teams, the Chiefs

1135
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 4: got up big against the Bucks in that one, and

1136
00:52:25,000 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 4: Williams didn't play, but you had waveon Bell and you

1137
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:30,839
Speaker 4: had Edwards Aware eleven carries Bell five. I think you're

1138
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 4: still gonna see Edwards Aware deeper into this game even

1139
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:34,839
Speaker 4: if the Chiefs get up big. But I also don't

1140
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 4: think they're likely to get like a thirty eight to

1141
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 4: fifteen leader or anything like that. But I think you

1142
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 4: do even if you're trying to run out the quack

1143
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:43,239
Speaker 4: I've set up before, and I'll say it again, I

1144
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 4: think you need Edwards Aware and his speed and his

1145
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:51,160
Speaker 4: tackle breaking ability versus Williams, you know, straight north south efficiency,

1146
00:52:51,760 --> 00:52:53,080
Speaker 4: even when you're trying to run out the game where

1147
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:54,440
Speaker 4: you're just gonna go three it out, because Williams is

1148
00:52:54,480 --> 00:52:57,440
Speaker 4: gonna get two yards every time against this Bucks run defense,

1149
00:52:57,680 --> 00:53:01,399
Speaker 4: especially if it's in predictable run situations. So I don't

1150
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:05,320
Speaker 4: think that the Williams volume from last week was predictive.

1151
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:07,920
Speaker 4: You're literally talking about a twenty plus point game that

1152
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:10,040
Speaker 4: just got a little closer at the end. But I

1153
00:53:10,200 --> 00:53:13,200
Speaker 4: just remember that even in that game, Edwards Dulaire had

1154
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 4: seventy five percent of the carries going into the you know,

1155
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:21,080
Speaker 4: late late third quarter with the Chiefs up twenty by

1156
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:23,879
Speaker 4: twenty three points, and then Darrel Williams gets the last

1157
00:53:23,920 --> 00:53:26,399
Speaker 4: eleven of the game to finish with thirteen and double

1158
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:28,600
Speaker 4: up Edwards Alaire. So I just I think that's completely

1159
00:53:28,600 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 4: out of the realm of the you know, probably you know,

1160
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:34,879
Speaker 4: ninety fifth percentile confidence outcomes in this one.

1161
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 3: So give me Williams under eight and a half carries.

1162
00:53:38,640 --> 00:53:40,480
Speaker 4: And I think you can also go under the yardage

1163
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:44,280
Speaker 4: to hedge it as well, because I think that you're

1164
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:46,799
Speaker 4: gonna get some lack of efficiency here too. But I'm

1165
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:48,840
Speaker 4: going with the volume under eight and a half for Williams.

1166
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:50,759
Speaker 2: I'm with you on this, So I coump really agree

1167
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:54,120
Speaker 2: with you. I don't think and look, those the Bills

1168
00:53:54,200 --> 00:53:57,839
Speaker 2: and the Browns have much worse run defenses than tap

1169
00:53:58,120 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 2: number one in the NFL. Do you away I rush defense.

1170
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:02,720
Speaker 2: It's hard to run them I don't think the Chiefs

1171
00:54:02,719 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 2: are gonna try to run much. I agree with you

1172
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 2: that Hlaire's the better matchup back here instead of just

1173
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 2: trying to ram it up the middle. He also did

1174
00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:13,680
Speaker 2: have thirty and I look, this is recentcy bias again,

1175
00:54:13,719 --> 00:54:15,719
Speaker 2: which I think is driving this market. He had thirteen

1176
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 2: carries against the Browns as well, but I think seven

1177
00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:21,560
Speaker 2: of them came after Mahomes got hurt, and again they

1178
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:23,800
Speaker 2: were up big. They were running the clock out against

1179
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:29,120
Speaker 2: a weak run defense. I think that look, it's this

1180
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 2: is a three point spread. I think it's gonna be close,

1181
00:54:32,000 --> 00:54:33,520
Speaker 2: and I think a layer matches are better. I don't

1182
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:35,480
Speaker 2: think it's gonna get much work at all early. I

1183
00:54:35,480 --> 00:54:38,279
Speaker 2: think they're gonna run the ball other ways. If you

1184
00:54:38,280 --> 00:54:40,839
Speaker 2: look in the regular season, maybe Leve Bell gets some

1185
00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 2: carries too.

1186
00:54:41,480 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, that was the kind of the wild card.

1187
00:54:43,120 --> 00:54:45,279
Speaker 4: I was gonna say that, like, if Bell plays like

1188
00:54:45,440 --> 00:54:48,280
Speaker 4: I'm projecting Bell, like if he plays to only get

1189
00:54:48,320 --> 00:54:49,759
Speaker 4: like a half a carry is and it's kind of

1190
00:54:49,800 --> 00:54:52,360
Speaker 4: like a fifty to fifty bet whether he does get carries.

1191
00:54:52,400 --> 00:54:55,520
Speaker 4: But like, let's not forget that there's every possibility that

1192
00:54:55,719 --> 00:54:58,480
Speaker 4: Bell could be involved in this game, so you have

1193
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:01,280
Speaker 4: like another kind of out there with Williams.

1194
00:55:01,560 --> 00:55:04,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, but if you look during the regular season, he

1195
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:06,719
Speaker 2: only had more than eight and a half rush attempts

1196
00:55:06,840 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 2: in three of the sixteen regular season games. I think

1197
00:55:09,480 --> 00:55:11,279
Speaker 2: he actually did play in that Bucks game. He just

1198
00:55:11,400 --> 00:55:13,640
Speaker 2: think he played eight snaps in the backfield and he did.

1199
00:55:13,719 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 2: I don't think he got to carry though. There you go,

1200
00:55:15,719 --> 00:55:19,880
Speaker 2: and so this would have hit what thirteen out of

1201
00:55:19,880 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 2: sixteen times during the regular season, I completely agree with

1202
00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 2: the year all right. For my fourth and final pick

1203
00:55:28,640 --> 00:55:32,240
Speaker 2: of the Sunday Super Bowl six pack eight pack this week,

1204
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 2: I am going with let's go have a fun one here,

1205
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:41,319
Speaker 2: I'm going with under eleven and a half penalties. I

1206
00:55:41,360 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 2: would play the smaller ten and a half, but I

1207
00:55:44,200 --> 00:55:47,440
Speaker 2: really like an eleven and a half. Penalties were down

1208
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 2: across the NFL this year. They were about eleven per game,

1209
00:55:51,440 --> 00:55:53,839
Speaker 2: and I think it's down about one and a half

1210
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:56,520
Speaker 2: to two per game. It's been even more drastic during

1211
00:55:56,560 --> 00:55:59,360
Speaker 2: the playoffs, where we usually see a reduction in flags. Overall,

1212
00:55:59,640 --> 00:56:02,000
Speaker 2: official don't want to just they don't want to and

1213
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:04,399
Speaker 2: it's happened before, but they generally will be a little

1214
00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 2: more cautious to throw a flag. They don't want to,

1215
00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:09,840
Speaker 2: you know, change the outcome of a game, especially the

1216
00:56:09,840 --> 00:56:13,800
Speaker 2: Super Bowl. Historically, there's been about ten point three penalties

1217
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:17,080
Speaker 2: per game in the Super Bowl if you look back historically.

1218
00:56:17,600 --> 00:56:21,440
Speaker 2: But this year, look, holding is down. You know it's

1219
00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:23,239
Speaker 2: going to be quiet. I don't have to worry about

1220
00:56:23,239 --> 00:56:25,759
Speaker 2: the false starts and things like that. By the way,

1221
00:56:25,800 --> 00:56:28,279
Speaker 2: one thing to keep in mind, Tampa Bay was one

1222
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:32,080
Speaker 2: of the most fortunate teams in NFL history on pass

1223
00:56:32,120 --> 00:56:34,960
Speaker 2: interference calls this year, as far as four and against

1224
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:38,280
Speaker 2: now they throw the ball downfield of ton. The Chiefs

1225
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:41,239
Speaker 2: were one of the least fortunate this year. A lot

1226
00:56:41,239 --> 00:56:43,440
Speaker 2: of that is the Chiefs don't really throw jump balls.

1227
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 2: Mames is really throwing it into the tight windows. They're scheming

1228
00:56:47,680 --> 00:56:50,560
Speaker 2: guys wide open. But the Bucks were extremely fortunate when

1229
00:56:50,560 --> 00:56:54,400
Speaker 2: it comes to pass interference net pass interference penalties. Carl Chaffers,

1230
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:59,160
Speaker 2: who's the ref here, he does call slightly more penalties

1231
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:03,359
Speaker 2: than average historically. He's been better in the past couple

1232
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:07,000
Speaker 2: of years. He's done a Super Bowl before. If you

1233
00:57:07,040 --> 00:57:08,520
Speaker 2: were call Chiefs fans, I know you don't want to

1234
00:57:08,520 --> 00:57:11,279
Speaker 2: hear this. He called that hold in the steel when

1235
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:12,920
Speaker 2: the Steelers beat you by two, he called. When you

1236
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:14,920
Speaker 2: got the two point version, he called the hold. I

1237
00:57:14,960 --> 00:57:18,280
Speaker 2: think on Eric Fisher, very controversial call. He's kind of

1238
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 2: calmed down the past couple of years. His crew is

1239
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 2: pretty flag heavy this year, and pass interference calls, he'd

1240
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 2: either like fourteen or either decline or offset, which is

1241
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:29,640
Speaker 2: way more than the next crew. But again, this is

1242
00:57:29,680 --> 00:57:31,640
Speaker 2: a different crew. Seeither I have a different back judge,

1243
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:34,200
Speaker 2: different line judge. It's not the head official that's calling

1244
00:57:35,200 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 2: the pass interference calls, but I think that they'll be

1245
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:40,520
Speaker 2: cautious here. And I think part of the reason why

1246
00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:43,720
Speaker 2: I made this bet is look this year, if you

1247
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:49,880
Speaker 2: go based on the projected penalties eleven in games, it

1248
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:51,880
Speaker 2: would be about right. Because this is a higher total.

1249
00:57:52,520 --> 00:57:54,880
Speaker 2: You probably project the total number of plays in this

1250
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 2: game to be like one hundred and sixty that's including

1251
00:57:58,000 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 2: all special teams plays like there's probably could be like

1252
00:58:01,040 --> 00:58:02,680
Speaker 2: I don't one hundred and thirty one hundred and thirty

1253
00:58:02,680 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 2: five plays offensive places. But then you have kickoffs, extra points, punts,

1254
00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:13,920
Speaker 2: all your non offensive plays, which there could be I

1255
00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:17,040
Speaker 2: don't know, twenty twenty five of those in a game

1256
00:58:17,080 --> 00:58:20,680
Speaker 2: that is pretty high scoring. And the reason I bring

1257
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:22,520
Speaker 2: those up is those aren't plays for offense, but you

1258
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:27,400
Speaker 2: can have penalties on those on those plays, and so

1259
00:58:27,560 --> 00:58:29,080
Speaker 2: you know the number of the fair number would be

1260
00:58:29,160 --> 00:58:33,120
Speaker 2: around eleven eleven and a half. And if you go

1261
00:58:33,200 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 2: based on these two teams, they are at about eight penalties.

1262
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 2: The Chiefs are more penalized than the Bucks this year,

1263
00:58:42,480 --> 00:58:44,560
Speaker 2: but the overall, if you look at their opponents and

1264
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:47,840
Speaker 2: how much they've been penalized, it's about eight per hundred plays,

1265
00:58:48,440 --> 00:58:50,840
Speaker 2: So you're right around eleven eleven. That's But if that's

1266
00:58:50,960 --> 00:58:55,200
Speaker 2: using the regular season numbers, if you look at the playoffs,

1267
00:58:55,760 --> 00:59:00,280
Speaker 2: it's been insane how few penalties they're calling so far

1268
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 2: this year in the postseason average of eight point one

1269
00:59:03,240 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 2: penalties per game in total eight penalties per game. There's

1270
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:10,080
Speaker 2: only been more than eleven and a half penalties called

1271
00:59:10,120 --> 00:59:13,480
Speaker 2: in one of the twelve playoff games. One. That's it.

1272
00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:17,040
Speaker 2: And what I think, look, this is a guest, is

1273
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:19,680
Speaker 2: a complete guess. What I think is there is a

1274
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:24,040
Speaker 2: kind of a mandator suggestion from the league to kind

1275
00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:26,800
Speaker 2: of hold your flags, and I'm going to base on

1276
00:59:26,840 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 2: my eye test. The numbers show it you watch that

1277
00:59:29,560 --> 00:59:33,880
Speaker 2: Packers Bucks game, if that was a regular season game,

1278
00:59:33,920 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 2: there are significantly more illegal contacts and past interferences called

1279
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:42,480
Speaker 2: throughout that game. We know holding are down across the board.

1280
00:59:42,680 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 2: On the offensive side, I don't think we have to

1281
00:59:44,360 --> 00:59:48,000
Speaker 2: worry too much about false starts. So it's really like

1282
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:50,520
Speaker 2: how many defensive penalties are we going to get? And

1283
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:52,480
Speaker 2: I think the league has said looks big. Well, now

1284
00:59:52,480 --> 00:59:53,600
Speaker 2: I could be wrong and they could come out and

1285
00:59:53,640 --> 00:59:55,800
Speaker 2: they could call everything. And the fun thing is if

1286
00:59:55,800 --> 00:59:58,720
Speaker 2: we lose this prop that we can yell and scream

1287
00:59:58,760 --> 01:00:02,920
Speaker 2: about how much we hate a fit, but using past

1288
01:00:03,400 --> 01:00:08,560
Speaker 2: playoff projections, this year's playoff numbers so far, and just

1289
01:00:08,600 --> 01:00:10,440
Speaker 2: a narrative, and then sometimes I've bet props based in

1290
01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:12,480
Speaker 2: the narrative alone. I'm going to take a shot in

1291
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:15,640
Speaker 2: eleven under eleven and a half at bet MGM. I

1292
01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:18,920
Speaker 2: prefer this to the yardage. I think the yardage I

1293
01:00:18,920 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 2: swore I saw one hundred yards in my dream. If

1294
01:00:22,120 --> 01:00:25,160
Speaker 2: it was one hundred and something, I don't know. Sometime

1295
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:27,640
Speaker 2: as a dream of props, I guess Super Bowl props

1296
01:00:27,640 --> 01:00:29,240
Speaker 2: I would play under one hundred yards. But I think

1297
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:30,520
Speaker 2: that the number that you see out there is like

1298
01:00:30,520 --> 01:00:33,840
Speaker 2: eighty eighty and a half. Average penalty yards in Super

1299
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:38,160
Speaker 2: Bowl history is like eighty five. I think that's a

1300
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:41,400
Speaker 2: pretty fair number for this game. Now. I think there's

1301
01:00:41,440 --> 01:00:45,560
Speaker 2: going to be fewer penalties, but remember these two teams

1302
01:00:45,600 --> 01:00:50,160
Speaker 2: throw it downfield a lot and past interference calls. You

1303
01:00:50,200 --> 01:00:53,120
Speaker 2: could have one pass interference call for forty five yards

1304
01:00:53,480 --> 01:00:56,200
Speaker 2: and then you're in trouble. So I prefer the under

1305
01:00:56,240 --> 01:00:59,600
Speaker 2: eleven and a half penalties to the under penalty yardage.

1306
01:01:00,200 --> 01:01:01,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's generally the way to go.

1307
01:01:01,400 --> 01:01:02,840
Speaker 4: It's kind of it kind of goes back to like

1308
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:05,160
Speaker 4: the you know, it's a little different with the receivers

1309
01:01:05,320 --> 01:01:07,240
Speaker 4: because a lot of times if they're not getting usage,

1310
01:01:07,240 --> 01:01:08,640
Speaker 4: they're not gonna get over their yards. But yeah, it

1311
01:01:08,680 --> 01:01:11,400
Speaker 4: just kind of protects you from the fact that, like,

1312
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:13,440
Speaker 4: you know, you can have like one or two penalties

1313
01:01:13,480 --> 01:01:16,960
Speaker 4: kind of throw you over the yardage, whereas, uh, you know,

1314
01:01:17,520 --> 01:01:19,400
Speaker 4: just not having a ton of penalties is going to

1315
01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:22,000
Speaker 4: only you know, it's going to keep that number down.

1316
01:01:22,000 --> 01:01:23,840
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like the I like the underpens. I

1317
01:01:23,880 --> 01:01:25,120
Speaker 3: mean I think, yeah, you're.

1318
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:26,640
Speaker 4: Getting at eleven and a half, Like I've seen the

1319
01:01:26,680 --> 01:01:27,920
Speaker 4: number at ten and a half and I would still

1320
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:28,400
Speaker 4: go under.

1321
01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:30,600
Speaker 3: Uh there, So yeah, I like that one too.

1322
01:01:30,720 --> 01:01:33,920
Speaker 2: Yeah bet MGM under eleven and a half. And look,

1323
01:01:34,080 --> 01:01:35,640
Speaker 2: I think there's been an hour from league and especially

1324
01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 2: it's like, hey, Brady versus Mahomes, let's let them decide it.

1325
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:40,840
Speaker 2: Maybe this is the kind of the suggestion from the

1326
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:43,040
Speaker 2: league if you look at it. A lot of things

1327
01:01:43,040 --> 01:01:45,320
Speaker 2: like this in sports, in the biggest leagues NHL game

1328
01:01:45,440 --> 01:01:48,480
Speaker 2: seven unders, especially like in the Stanley Cup, but just

1329
01:01:48,520 --> 01:01:51,640
Speaker 2: in general and pluff unders historically are really great and

1330
01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:54,439
Speaker 2: the primary reason, you know, teams play a little tight

1331
01:01:54,800 --> 01:01:56,800
Speaker 2: early at times they don't want to make a mistake

1332
01:01:56,840 --> 01:02:00,040
Speaker 2: in such a big game. But penalties, the penalty on

1333
01:02:00,120 --> 01:02:05,280
Speaker 2: lead minutes are statistically significantly lower than they all in

1334
01:02:05,360 --> 01:02:08,360
Speaker 2: all the games. And that's because you just it's human nature.

1335
01:02:08,400 --> 01:02:10,760
Speaker 2: You don't want to just make the call and be incorrect,

1336
01:02:10,760 --> 01:02:12,440
Speaker 2: so you say, all right, I'm just gonna let that go.

1337
01:02:12,640 --> 01:02:13,960
Speaker 2: I'm gonna let it go, and you let a few

1338
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:16,840
Speaker 2: more things go. So that's the human nature element, and

1339
01:02:16,840 --> 01:02:19,880
Speaker 2: that if there's been a suggestion to the league, I

1340
01:02:19,880 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 2: think this is a good shot of hitting.

1341
01:02:21,520 --> 01:02:24,560
Speaker 4: Absolutely for my last one, I'll I'll go with the

1342
01:02:24,600 --> 01:02:28,840
Speaker 4: team one as well. I'll go Chiefs over twenty two

1343
01:02:28,840 --> 01:02:32,760
Speaker 4: and a half first downs. And I think the reason

1344
01:02:32,760 --> 01:02:34,600
Speaker 4: this is like I think this should be I'll go

1345
01:02:34,640 --> 01:02:36,640
Speaker 4: over twenty three and a half as well. But you

1346
01:02:36,640 --> 01:02:38,480
Speaker 4: look at the Bucks and because the Bucks play such

1347
01:02:38,480 --> 01:02:41,880
Speaker 4: a good run defense, they have held a bunch of

1348
01:02:41,920 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 4: teams that can't throw the ball to minuscule first down numbers.

1349
01:02:46,200 --> 01:02:48,920
Speaker 4: I mean, at one point this season they went on

1350
01:02:48,960 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 4: a streak where they didn't even allow twenty first downs.

1351
01:02:51,360 --> 01:02:56,920
Speaker 4: Between Week three and week number seven, they played five games.

1352
01:02:56,920 --> 01:03:01,280
Speaker 4: It was thirteen fifteen, eighteen, thirteen, nineteen. But the Chiefs

1353
01:03:01,280 --> 01:03:05,240
Speaker 4: have gotten over this number in all but five games.

1354
01:03:05,320 --> 01:03:07,680
Speaker 4: And you look at the last eight games for the

1355
01:03:07,720 --> 01:03:10,280
Speaker 4: Bucks and they've given up at least twenty three first

1356
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:12,800
Speaker 4: downs and six of those eight and even the Packers

1357
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:15,560
Speaker 4: last week, you know, they they got to twenty three

1358
01:03:15,760 --> 01:03:19,240
Speaker 4: and Washington got to twenty three a couple of weeks ago.

1359
01:03:19,280 --> 01:03:21,320
Speaker 4: So I think when you're playing a team like Kansas City,

1360
01:03:21,320 --> 01:03:24,200
Speaker 4: which again Mahomes had four hundred and sixty plus yards

1361
01:03:24,720 --> 01:03:27,120
Speaker 4: on thirty seven and forty nine passing in the first matchup,

1362
01:03:27,280 --> 01:03:31,080
Speaker 4: Kansas City gets twenty six first downs. I think that's

1363
01:03:31,320 --> 01:03:33,520
Speaker 4: that's what is going to kind of take you out

1364
01:03:33,560 --> 01:03:34,680
Speaker 4: of that normal.

1365
01:03:35,880 --> 01:03:36,920
Speaker 3: Projection for the Bucks.

1366
01:03:36,920 --> 01:03:40,000
Speaker 4: It's that against yeah, like twenty like against like half

1367
01:03:40,120 --> 01:03:42,640
Speaker 4: or even two thirds of the league offense. You're not

1368
01:03:42,640 --> 01:03:44,640
Speaker 4: going to be able to pass on this team, especially

1369
01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:47,240
Speaker 4: getting in third and you know, third and medium, third

1370
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:49,480
Speaker 4: and long after the shutting down your run game.

1371
01:03:49,520 --> 01:03:52,640
Speaker 3: But the Chiefs whole different beast I think on offense.

1372
01:03:52,640 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 4: So yeah, going over twenty two and a half first

1373
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:57,040
Speaker 4: downs for the Kansas City Chiefs like.

1374
01:03:57,080 --> 01:03:59,120
Speaker 2: It, which is good. We'll either have a really good.

1375
01:03:59,280 --> 01:04:02,680
Speaker 4: Right, Yes, Douck and I think this is a good

1376
01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:05,040
Speaker 4: time for the pep talk. Today's pep talk comes to

1377
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:08,320
Speaker 4: us from Alpacino in the nineteen ninety two film Glengarry

1378
01:04:08,400 --> 01:04:11,280
Speaker 4: Glenn Ross, and I think we should dedicate it to

1379
01:04:11,320 --> 01:04:12,080
Speaker 4: the officials.

1380
01:04:12,440 --> 01:04:15,760
Speaker 2: I think so perfect fit. Don't mess us up. Just

1381
01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 2: let the players play.

1382
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 5: You stupid fucking now I'm talking to you.

1383
01:04:21,080 --> 01:04:23,880
Speaker 2: Shit, you just cost me six thousand dollars.

1384
01:04:24,520 --> 01:04:25,440
Speaker 5: What are you gonna do about it?

1385
01:04:26,440 --> 01:04:30,120
Speaker 2: What are you going to do about it? Asshole? Where

1386
01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:32,080
Speaker 2: did you learn yet? Trade? You idiot?

1387
01:04:32,800 --> 01:04:36,400
Speaker 4: What you're hired for is to help us, to help

1388
01:04:36,600 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 4: men who are going out there to try to earn

1389
01:04:39,320 --> 01:04:39,960
Speaker 4: a living.

1390
01:04:40,520 --> 01:04:43,600
Speaker 2: Does that seem clear to you, to help.

1391
01:04:43,400 --> 01:04:46,280
Speaker 5: Us, not to fuck us up?

1392
01:04:47,200 --> 01:04:49,080
Speaker 3: All right, that is going to do it.

1393
01:04:49,160 --> 01:04:53,360
Speaker 4: And remember we have a couple of live shows coming

1394
01:04:53,440 --> 01:04:56,240
Speaker 4: up on this week for the Super Bowls that be

1395
01:04:56,320 --> 01:04:58,520
Speaker 4: sure to check out the Action Network ageq Twitter handle.

1396
01:04:58,920 --> 01:05:01,040
Speaker 4: We'll have all our content up as well. We'll be

1397
01:05:01,120 --> 01:05:04,200
Speaker 4: writing up what we're betting on. You can, of course

1398
01:05:04,240 --> 01:05:06,000
Speaker 4: go to the Action Network app and follow all of

1399
01:05:06,040 --> 01:05:08,680
Speaker 4: our picks there. Stucky's at Stucky too, I'm at Chris

1400
01:05:08,880 --> 01:05:11,400
Speaker 4: Raybon and you can find us on Twitter at those

1401
01:05:11,400 --> 01:05:12,200
Speaker 4: same handles.

1402
01:05:12,960 --> 01:05:15,560
Speaker 3: Let's get this money for the Super Bowl. Good luck

1403
01:05:15,600 --> 01:05:15,920
Speaker 3: out there.

1404
01:05:16,920 --> 01:05:35,160
Speaker 5: What's up a day? We're finished talking