WEBVTT - The Blockchain Built for Good 0:00:01.760 --> 0:00:04.400 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.800 you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 0:00:09.800 --> 0:00:13.640 clus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.600 analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 0:00:19.600 --> 0:00:23.200 download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:25.160 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.840 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:32.000 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Over the summer, the blockchain 0:00:32.080 --> 0:00:35.280 ecosystem Topple raising fifteen million dollars in a series a 0:00:35.360 --> 0:00:37.440 funding round that's on top of a five million dollar 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:40.519 seed round which happened back in so we want to 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:42.280 talk a little about the business and what they're up to. 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:44.800 Chris Georgia and the founder and managing director of Topple, 0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:48.600 joining us from Houston, Texas. Chris, how are you? You're great? 0:00:48.640 --> 0:00:50.680 It's happy to be on today. Yeah, thanks so much 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:54.520 for joining us. I I coinker a show called Crypto 0:00:54.560 --> 0:00:56.600 I r L and I still think there's so much 0:00:56.600 --> 0:01:00.520 confusion over what exactly the blockchain is is and what 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:02.920 it can do. And in a recent episode actually talked 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:04.480 about this. I said that, you know, we've been hearing 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:07.479 about the promises the blockchain for over a decade at 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:11.160 this point, and consumers have yet to see a point 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:13.000 in their lives it has actually gotten better as a 0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:16.400 result of this technology. Uh would you disagree with that 0:01:16.480 --> 0:01:19.319 or would you agree with that? Well, I would definitely 0:01:19.360 --> 0:01:21.840 agree with that. Um, you know, for a lot of people, 0:01:21.959 --> 0:01:24.360 it hasn't become apparent yet. You know, we're starting to 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:27.880 have some small use cases, you know, supply chain traceability, 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:30.640 carbon credits, you know, starting to be tracked this way. 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:34.440 But I think we all need to remember that blockchain 0:01:34.560 --> 0:01:37.679 came onto the scene from a retail perspective very early 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:40.399 in its lifespan. You know, a I got started in 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:42.440 the sixties, but I think none of us really heard 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:45.640 about it until fifteen years ago. So blockchain is kind 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:49.520 of had its coming out party in a very public way. 0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:54.800 So remind our world, Chris, what you are doing specifically, 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:57.960 and what kind of companies are you working with, and 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:00.240 maybe who are your biggest partners or customers. Is at 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:03.640 this point absolutely. So the way that we think about 0:02:03.720 --> 0:02:07.200 TOPPLE is we think of it as blockchain for sustainability, 0:02:07.200 --> 0:02:09.640 for positive impact or you know, to use an acronym 0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:12.160 for for e s G. And what that means is 0:02:12.160 --> 0:02:16.080 we're doing everything from tracking and tracing conflict free diamonds 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:19.679 moving around the world or fair wage agriculture. We work 0:02:19.800 --> 0:02:25.680 with energy companies and you know, big project developers to issue, track, 0:02:25.800 --> 0:02:28.200 buy and sell carbon credits. So we do a lot 0:02:28.240 --> 0:02:31.000 with powering the energy transition, and we do a lot 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:33.960 to help clean up supply chains, you know, making sure 0:02:34.000 --> 0:02:37.840 that they're properly environmentally sustainable and also you know, following 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:40.359 good labor practices as well. So dig a little bit deeper. 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:42.880 How do you do that? Because the big part, you know, 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:44.640 you say es G and kind of the hairs in 0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:48.520 my neck perk up because I think we keep saying, 0:02:48.600 --> 0:02:50.160 or I certainly keep saying that E s G feels 0:02:50.160 --> 0:02:52.280 like it's going through a reckoning after years and years 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:56.600 of good performance in an upbeat market, a bullush market. Um, 0:02:56.680 --> 0:02:59.760 it's going through a reckoning where people want visibility, transparency 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:04.120 and at our understanding, uh, and so tell us, how 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:08.079 what are you what's your proprietary technology that helps customers 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:11.880 make sure that they are complying by real E s 0:03:11.919 --> 0:03:15.360 G means if you will, absolutely, And the way that 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:17.720 we think about how blockchain fits into this is blockchain 0:03:17.840 --> 0:03:21.480 can be open, blockchain can be decentralized. And really one 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:22.919 of the biggest problems with a lot of E s 0:03:22.960 --> 0:03:26.880 G claims is they're being assembled after the fact that 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:31.639 a main corporate office months after something supposedly or hopefully 0:03:31.720 --> 0:03:35.040 happened somewhere out in a plant or out in the field. Well, 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:38.160 blockchain technology and what we're able to do is get 0:03:38.240 --> 0:03:41.920 data directly from when it's happening. So maybe that's taking 0:03:41.960 --> 0:03:48.520 inputs directly from SMS information from that what's SMS text 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:52.400 messages for everyone, um, so you know, maybe farmers are 0:03:52.400 --> 0:03:56.280 text interacting with the system, or there's IoT or satellite 0:03:56.400 --> 0:04:01.520 information that's being fed directly into technology. So you don't 0:04:01.520 --> 0:04:04.400 have kind of like an after the fact report being assembled, 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:08.040 but you've got data being sourced directly from on the 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:10.840 ground or where that impact is supposed to be happening, 0:04:11.080 --> 0:04:13.280 and that's being able to you know, relay direct to 0:04:13.400 --> 0:04:17.039 investors get more transparent access to it, or consumers get 0:04:17.040 --> 0:04:20.359 more transparent access to it. Chris, this conversation reminds me 0:04:20.440 --> 0:04:23.279 of the way that we've seen Google Glass develop and 0:04:23.320 --> 0:04:25.720 the technology and heads up displays develop over the last 0:04:26.720 --> 0:04:29.200 well only in the sense of, you know, when this 0:04:29.279 --> 0:04:31.480 came out that Google had this video of you know, 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:34.760 everyday people wearing these glasses and you know, a heads 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:37.000 up display saying, you know, walking down a subway into 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:39.040 a into a subway station underground and it's like, oh, 0:04:39.160 --> 0:04:41.520 you know something pops up, subways closed, better go use 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:43.520 another one, that sort of thing. But what ended up 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:46.719 happening was, you know, consumers didn't want that type of technology, 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:49.480 didn't like the way that they interacted with it. The 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:52.240 technology was then used in warehouses and it's like caught 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:54.680 up on the industrial side of things. Do you see 0:04:54.680 --> 0:04:57.599 that happening with with blockchain, Like, you know, something was 0:04:57.640 --> 0:05:00.320 promised to consumers, but it's actually more applica bull in 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:05.160 an industrial in an industrial space. I think the earliest 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:08.320 use cases absolutely, you know, will fall into that pattern. 0:05:08.320 --> 0:05:10.520 And you know that's really the pattern that we're following 0:05:11.080 --> 0:05:13.839 as well. You know, it's it's right now, it's behind 0:05:13.839 --> 0:05:18.160 the scenes technology, it's powering applications and platforms that are 0:05:18.200 --> 0:05:21.080 all being built on top of it. UM. There's still 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:23.480 probably a long way that innovation that can go. And 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:25.960 so you know, just like we might see Google lots 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:28.520 or you know, a competitor make a reemergence once the 0:05:28.560 --> 0:05:32.560 technology is you know, ready to come back out of industry. 0:05:32.880 --> 0:05:35.080 You know, i'd say in the next two to four years, 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:37.800 we'll see that on the consumer side or the blockchain 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:40.279 as well. Hey listen, just get about forty five seconds 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:42.400 left here, R Bloomberg. We care about this kind of stuff. 0:05:42.400 --> 0:05:44.880 You guys are raising money from investors, So what's been 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:47.360 the growth in your business top line? And I'm assuming 0:05:47.400 --> 0:05:51.479 you're not profitable yet, but you can clarify so some 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:54.200 of this is kind of uh, you know still you know, 0:05:54.400 --> 0:05:56.680 private information. But you know, over the last year, we've 0:05:56.680 --> 0:06:00.479 on boarded about thirty different projects UM all across the 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:03.599 world onto the platform. I think we're active with projects 0:06:03.640 --> 0:06:08.080 across five continents right now. Team is growing healthily. I 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:10.679 think we've just on boarded our thirty five person UM. 0:06:10.720 --> 0:06:12.599 So it's also a great time to be hiring in 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:15.159 the tech space. So I've been really enjoying that as well. 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:17.680 All right, Well, no slowdown? So that is it like 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:20.800 double did you grass? Yeah? I didn't hear it? Pretty 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:24.560 close that okay, well listen, good to know and uh, 0:06:24.920 --> 0:06:27.680 it's definitely a world that we're interested. Tim is all 0:06:27.720 --> 0:06:30.880 over it on his shoe. Watch our new show Crypto 0:06:30.920 --> 0:06:34.880 I r L Tonight eight thirty Bloomberg TV. Little Little Love. 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:37.640 I like that. That's the that's the like fifth of 0:06:37.800 --> 0:06:41.640 more plugs. Okay, I love it. Um our. Thanks to 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:45.919 Chris of Course, founder imaging director of Topple here on Bloomberg. 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:50.160 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:54.000 Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Do you want 0:06:54.000 --> 0:06:55.760 to get back to something we just talked about with 0:06:55.760 --> 0:06:59.080 our Mike mckeean. We're talking about this morning's jobs report. 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:02.880 Just a reminder the US labor markets staying strong. In September, 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:06.920 the unemployment rate unexpectedly returned to an historic low, leaving 0:07:06.920 --> 0:07:09.880 the Fed on course to deliver yet another aggressive interest 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:13.400 rate hike. Non Farm payrolls increased two hundred sixty three 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:18.160 thousand in September after three gain in August. Unemployment rate 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:20.200 dropped to three and a half percent. That matched a 0:07:20.320 --> 0:07:24.000 five decade low average. Really earnings rising firmly. Tim Well, 0:07:24.040 --> 0:07:25.960 we like to turn to on days like this. Becky 0:07:26.000 --> 0:07:29.520 frank Witz, chief commercial Officer, President North America for Manpower Group. 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:32.240 Becky joining us this afternoon on the phone from Chicago. 0:07:32.600 --> 0:07:35.800 Manpower Group, of course, a placement firm that works around 0:07:35.800 --> 0:07:38.320 the globe and has a really good understanding of what 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:40.880 exactly is happening when it comes to jobs in this 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:43.000 economy and more. Becky, good, good to have you back 0:07:43.000 --> 0:07:46.320 with us. How are you hi, Tim Well? Thank you good? Good? So. Um, 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:48.920 any surprises in the jobs report that we got, we 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:50.760 know for the equity market, it's another good news is 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:54.240 bad news scenario. Yes, I'd say, you know, first, we 0:07:54.280 --> 0:07:57.080 saw some softening, gradual softening month over month, which is 0:07:57.160 --> 0:07:59.960 actually good for employers. Tim. I know it sounds cow 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:03.080 are intuitive, but a little bit of release of pressure 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:06.640 in this really tight labor market is actually encouraging because 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:10.200 employers are hoping they can actually you know, fill some roles. Now. Um, 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:12.920 A surprise earlier in the week is it quit rates. 0:08:13.080 --> 0:08:16.000 Quit rates prove that your job openings, you know, haven't 0:08:16.040 --> 0:08:19.400 dissuaded people from resigning. Um, even if we go into 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:21.120 this holiday. So I would say that was a surprise 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:22.880 at bit earlier in the week, and I think that 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:25.560 you know, the no news is the news around wages. 0:08:26.000 --> 0:08:28.280 UM also was clear in the reports this morning. So 0:08:28.320 --> 0:08:30.440 what are you guys seeing at Manpower Group when it 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:33.720 comes to what companies need? Are they finding their need? 0:08:33.840 --> 0:08:36.520 Give us some color behind these numbers that we got 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:38.600 from the government and what you guys are seeing in 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:40.760 real time. Yeah, Carol, I'm so glad you asked that, 0:08:40.800 --> 0:08:43.240 because you know, the job's report is is a backward 0:08:43.280 --> 0:08:45.280 looking view. And so if you say, hey, what's going 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:47.400 on today, Banky, what's going on the labor market today? 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.880 I would say two big headlines. One is hybrid holiday. 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:54.640 So we are seeing retailers start to hire for what 0:08:54.720 --> 0:08:56.880 I call hybrid and my kids make fun of me 0:08:56.920 --> 0:08:58.680 because I said, it's it's I R L, you know, 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:00.920 in real life. So we're seeing people want to shop 0:09:00.960 --> 0:09:04.760 in store, and therefore we're seeing roles associated store managers, 0:09:04.880 --> 0:09:08.199 service people in the inside retail. We're starting to see 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:11.800 some some pick up there as well as continuing growth 0:09:11.800 --> 0:09:15.400 around you know, logistics, delivery drivers, etcetera, which really didn't 0:09:15.400 --> 0:09:17.160 show up in the report today, and so it's a 0:09:17.200 --> 0:09:19.560 it's a bit more delayed. Um, so that would be 0:09:19.679 --> 0:09:21.679 one big thing that we're seeing. And the second thing 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:24.400 we're seeing that it wasn't the report today is tech hiring. 0:09:24.600 --> 0:09:29.760 Carroll continues to robust, aggressive and apparently slow down proof. 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:33.480 Really that's so weird because okay, because we get so 0:09:33.559 --> 0:09:36.360 much anecdotal evidence, whether that's you know, Meta platforms, the 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:39.559 parent company of Facebook, or you know, you just go 0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:42.480 and type in what ni job cuts in the Bloomberg 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:44.640 terminal and there's headline after headlines, so much of them 0:09:44.640 --> 0:09:46.840 based in Silicon Valley. Are are you just using the 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:50.400 term tech differently? Is more a more encompassing term. Well, 0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:52.680 it's about tech skills, it's not about tech companies. And 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:54.920 so you're absolutely right. The headlines are front of the 0:09:54.960 --> 0:09:59.320 big tech companies. Yet every company today is in some 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:03.000 part of tech company, and so anything anyone who might 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:07.280 have been impacted by Silicon Valley layoffs was rapidly picked 0:10:07.360 --> 0:10:10.160 up in either another industry or in a smaller company. 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:13.520 And tchech Unemployment is still under one percent in our country, 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:17.000 under one percent. You know, it's interesting. What was the 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:19.640 thing of labor hoarding. We were talking about where companies 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:21.520 are afraid to let go of workers even if they're 0:10:21.520 --> 0:10:25.160 a little nervous about the outlook, because they just maybe 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:27.080 they don't think they if we get a recession, it 0:10:27.120 --> 0:10:28.760 won't be deep. And so they don't want to let 0:10:28.800 --> 0:10:30.839 go of workers because they know how tight the labor 0:10:30.880 --> 0:10:33.040 market is and they don't want to have to scramble 0:10:33.640 --> 0:10:35.960 on the other side of it. What what can you 0:10:35.960 --> 0:10:37.720 tell us about what you are seeing when it comes 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:41.400 to companies and doing labor labor hoarding. Yeah, so, so 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:44.840 I'd say that we're still in a post pandemic labor recovery. 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:46.240 And I know, you know, we like to think the 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:49.720 pandemic is roll over. Just now, supply chains are normalizing. 0:10:50.040 --> 0:10:53.680 You've seen the headlines around freight costs going down, containers 0:10:53.760 --> 0:10:57.040 you know, now being readily available, lumber going down, and 0:10:57.080 --> 0:11:00.480 so we're still in this post pandemic recovery. And in employers, 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:03.920 memories are long and they remember for the last eighteen 0:11:03.920 --> 0:11:06.680 months they've not been able to find talent. And so, yes, Carrol, 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:08.440 we are seeing I love that term, by the way, 0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:11.439 labor hoarding. Um, we are seeing labor hoarding in some 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:13.600 places because you know, employers are afraid if I let 0:11:13.600 --> 0:11:15.040 these people go, I may not be able to get 0:11:15.040 --> 0:11:17.800 them back in a few months when we all hope 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:21.880 the economy rebounds. Uh, can you give us some indication 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:24.120 on I don't know how you're looking forward a little 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:26.480 bit becky to understand what comes during the fourth quarter 0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:30.280 of the year and in Q one, because the excuse 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:32.720 me him getting a little ahead of myself. The FED 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:34.960 is certainly trying to figure out what happens there, and 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:37.840 investors are as well. Yes, so I would say, you know, 0:11:37.880 --> 0:11:40.120 holiday hiring is the weather vane. It's going to tell 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:41.840 us what we're going to see for the rest of 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:43.960 you know, at least the rest of this year, and 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:46.920 also into the very first part of three. So that 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:48.560 would be one, you know, one thing. So if we 0:11:48.559 --> 0:11:49.959 see so okay, so let me just make sure I 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:51.760 understand this. If we see softness when it comes to 0:11:51.800 --> 0:11:54.040 holiday hiring, that could be a bad sign. It could 0:11:54.040 --> 0:11:56.600 be a concern. You know, so far we're seeing I 0:11:56.640 --> 0:11:58.679 know you saw Amazon just announcer hiring a hundred and 0:11:58.720 --> 0:12:01.080 fifty people for the holl Day and so you know 0:12:01.120 --> 0:12:03.280 we'd see early signs of promise. But it's still early 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:05.200 in the season, but that that is the weather vein 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:07.640 that we should all keep our our eyes on. Um. 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:09.800 I think the other is, you know, just the FED 0:12:09.840 --> 0:12:11.800 take action again and what impact does that have on 0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:13.720 the job market? And that's well outside of you know, 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:17.520 my control. Are you concerned the Fed over does it. 0:12:18.000 --> 0:12:21.360 They've talked about where the unemployment rate needs to be 0:12:21.720 --> 0:12:25.840 potentially in order to bring down inflationary pressures. Are you 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:28.560 concerned that we will see maybe it's six months from now, 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:30.440 maybe it's twelve months, maybe it's three months that we 0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:34.280 will see those unemployment claims to hire and a significant 0:12:34.760 --> 0:12:36.680 amount of people might be out of work. And just 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:39.440 got about thirty seconds, Becky, Yeah, so I would say, Carol, 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:42.720 I hope it's not significant. The labor market traditionally lags 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:44.959 the economy. It's lagging it a bit more. So I'm 0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:47.520 hoping the economy rebounds and the labor market has a 0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:52.200 short and shallow decline. Okay, I'm gonna leave it there. Hey, listen, Becky, 0:12:52.240 --> 0:12:54.040 have a great weekend. Good to check in with you, 0:12:54.080 --> 0:12:58.480 Becky Frankoments. She's Chief commercial Officer, President of Manpower Group 0:12:58.520 --> 0:13:01.120 North America and of Chris johan Elsa, she typically does 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:04.599 on these monthly jobs data days, joining us on the 0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:06.920 phone from Chicago. You know it's funny. I just I 0:13:07.000 --> 0:13:08.520 was looking at an eye job cuts and there's just 0:13:08.559 --> 0:13:12.040 so many stories. It's like, wait a minute, I don't understand. Um, 0:13:12.200 --> 0:13:13.880 the job market is so good. Why does so many 0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:16.360 people talk about layoffs? But the distinction that Becky made 0:13:16.400 --> 0:13:20.559 is so important? Right, tech jobs versus tech companies? Yes, yes, 0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:23.800 really important. Yeah. I think that could be a quick 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:27.240 take video. Sounds good, you want to do it. You're 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:31.239 listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg 0:13:31.320 --> 0:13:35.240 Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Let's get to 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:37.840 Julia Pollock, chief economists for Zipp recruiter. She joins us 0:13:37.840 --> 0:13:39.559 once again on the phone from Los Angeles. We like 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:41.520 checking in with her at least once a month when 0:13:41.559 --> 0:13:43.920 it comes to what she's seeing on her platform. Julia, 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:46.320 how are you very well? Thanks? And how are you 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:48.200 We're doing okay. It's good to have you with us 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:51.160 once again this afternoon. So when you saw these numbers 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:53.160 this morning, wasn't any surprise to you? After all, you 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.800 see what recruiters are looking for, and you see what 0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:58.200 job seekers are looking for on ZIP recruiters, so you 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:00.000 have a good, you know, good idea of what's how 0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:01.880 opening in the economy. Was this a surprise to you? 0:14:02.720 --> 0:14:04.680 Not at all. This is right in line with what 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:06.800 economists we're expecting, and vice line with what we've been 0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:10.600 seeing on our website. While employers are becoming a little 0:14:10.600 --> 0:14:13.560 bit concerned about the future, outlook a bit more cautious, 0:14:13.559 --> 0:14:16.600 a bit more conservative, and they're hirings while they're reducing 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:20.400 job openings somewhat, they are still hiring when push comes 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:22.600 to shove because business conditions are still good and the 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:26.240 consumer is still spending. So how do you cross this 0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:30.480 with um all of the talk about recession. Obviously, the 0:14:30.520 --> 0:14:33.800 financial markets tell a very different story. Uh. And we 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:35.840 did have a market guest who joined us earlier about 0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:38.120 I think what's going on in terms of corporate earnings 0:14:38.120 --> 0:14:40.520 that we've already had a corporate earnings recession, but we 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:46.200 haven't had necessarily, yes, an economic recession. So companies who 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:49.440 have had to maybe cost because of inflationary pressures are 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:52.800 shown and so forth. You're saying they're reducing job openings, 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:55.280 but they're not letting folks go. Bottom line, that's that's 0:14:55.280 --> 0:14:58.120 what it's going to be, UM, and we'll continue to 0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:02.160 be that way. Yes, because though companies are reducing headcount 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:05.440 growth but not reducing headcount, and that is sort of 0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:07.680 exactly I think what the said would like to see. 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:10.000 They want to see that gap between job openings, the 0:15:10.040 --> 0:15:13.280 number of unemployed people seeking them close. It was more 0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:16.920 than five million a month ago. It's uh, it's shrank 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:20.280 to four million in the most recent ULTS report earlier 0:15:20.320 --> 0:15:24.240 this this week. Uh. And if that gap narrows, you 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:27.120 will see people becoming a bit more reluctant to quit 0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:30.840 their jobs, a little bit less confident in the availability 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:33.920 of alternatives, and that will reduce wage growth pressure a 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:37.280 little bit and also with its equation. UM. Want to 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:39.080 ask you, though, do we get to a point where 0:15:39.080 --> 0:15:42.520 it's not just about reducing headcount growth but actually you 0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:44.560 say they're not reducing headcount now, but do we get 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:48.240 to a point where companies are reducing headcount in your conversations, 0:15:48.280 --> 0:15:50.800 do we start to see that? Well? We I mean, 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:54.560 we are seeing the lave market split into two groups now, 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:59.360 one group that's still adding jobs very rapidly and another 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:03.040 group set of industries that are disproportionately affected by high 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:07.040 interest rates. Uh. Those are industries like finance and insurance 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:10.920 that lost thirteen thousand jobs in this report. UM building, 0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:14.480 material and garden supply stores lost six thousand jobs. Car 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:17.920 dealerships lost almost two thousand jobs. You know, the US 0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:20.600 consumers are not able to tap into their houses and 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:22.800 use them as tiggy banks anymore the way they were 0:16:22.920 --> 0:16:25.040 last year. They can't just refinance their house to buy 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:27.720 a new car or do some renovations on their home 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:30.720 because they're they're two thirds of US mortgages are now 0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:34.920 below four percent, and two percent of mortgages only two 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:37.440 percent are adjustable rate mortgages. No one wants to jump 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:40.000 out of that into a much much much higher mortgage rate, 0:16:40.040 --> 0:16:41.480 which we're a and we're seeing that play out in 0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:43.360 the housing market, Like you don't want to leave that 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:45.960 that mortgage rate that sub four percent to buy something new. 0:16:46.040 --> 0:16:49.240 So it's essentially at a standstill right now. Hey, Julia, 0:16:49.240 --> 0:16:50.920 help us understand what this looks like in Q one 0:16:51.800 --> 0:16:54.080 three and what it looks like for the year the 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:56.960 new year. You know, and typically in situations like this, 0:16:57.080 --> 0:16:59.320 like how should we expect things to start looking when 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:03.640 it comes to the layment front. Sure, so this job 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:06.119 gain that we just saw two sixty three thousand is 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:09.120 about five times what we would need to keep pace 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:13.119 with population growth right now. So we uh could see 0:17:13.359 --> 0:17:17.240 job gains slow gradually and continue to slow a little 0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:21.439 bit while the economy continues to add jobs across a 0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:24.000 broad set of industries and not just you know, low 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:26.359 wage jobs, not just minimum wage jobs, but good jobs 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:29.520 as well. Um, we will see some sexual pain. I 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:31.240 mean there there are parts of the economies that are 0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:34.920 hard hit by rising interest rates and low stock prices 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:39.240 and a very strong dollar. Big tech, major enterprise companies, UM, 0:17:39.280 --> 0:17:42.160 many of them earn the majority of their revenue abroad, 0:17:42.560 --> 0:17:46.639 and so uh those non dollar denominated sales are hurting 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:50.160 their margins. UM. But you know, the typical like main 0:17:50.200 --> 0:17:54.439 street business that buys inputs from abroad cheaply now and 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:56.880 is getting all of its revenue here at home. Those 0:17:56.880 --> 0:17:59.679 companies are still, by and large doing quite well. So, Julie, 0:17:59.720 --> 0:18:01.960 if I go to your website, I have the option 0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:04.840 of saying, there's a question what brings you here today? 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:06.760 I'm looking for a job right now, I'm looking for 0:18:06.760 --> 0:18:09.639 a job, but no, Rush, I'm just browsing. Next. What 0:18:09.720 --> 0:18:14.640 do most people hit? Do you know? Yes? So, Um, 0:18:14.680 --> 0:18:16.840 you know, about half of people are looking for a 0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:20.280 job right away and they know exactly what they want 0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:22.919 to look for. But there is a huge set of 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:25.240 people who come to the website and don't know what 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:27.359 they're looking for. They're they're just looking for a job, 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:29.640 and that's why they come to us, because we can 0:18:29.680 --> 0:18:32.919 help match them two jobs that match their skills and 0:18:32.960 --> 0:18:36.840 experience levels. Um. Many people have no idea. Um. Uh, 0:18:36.920 --> 0:18:39.200 you know, the most common search on our website is 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:41.880 a blank search and that that is exactly I think. 0:18:42.000 --> 0:18:45.480 Why mean a blank search where they just hit search 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:47.160 but they don't fill anything in. They don't they don't 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:50.399 know what job titles they're looking for. Um, they're looking 0:18:50.400 --> 0:18:52.480 for a job, but they don't even know what's out there. 0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:54.920 They don't know the possibilities. Uh. You know, no one 0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:57.520 trains you to to search for a job. It's something 0:18:57.640 --> 0:19:02.560 you don't learn school. Many people also leave learning about 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:04.879 looking at the lave market until it's kind of too 0:19:04.960 --> 0:19:07.840 late to match to get the skills that they would 0:19:07.840 --> 0:19:09.560 actually need to get a great job. Julia, When we 0:19:09.600 --> 0:19:12.160 have twenty seconds left here. But what about employers are 0:19:12.200 --> 0:19:14.760 they are not looking for jobs to the same extent 0:19:14.800 --> 0:19:18.800 that they were, you know, just six months ago. Employers 0:19:18.760 --> 0:19:21.879 are are worried about the future outlooks. But business is 0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:24.719 still good and so they're still hiring and uh and 0:19:24.760 --> 0:19:26.879 that means they're great opportunity still. This is where we 0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:29.600 scratched our heads. It's just a crazy environment. Hey, Julia, 0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:32.359 thanks so much, Julia Pollock. She's chief economists ZIP recruiter 0:19:32.440 --> 0:19:35.440 with us on the phone from Los Angeles. You get 0:19:35.480 --> 0:19:37.120 a job, you get a job, You get a job. 0:19:39.040 --> 0:19:46.360 That's what it feels like. I'm row a journal. Yeah, 0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:51.399 I bet you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, please, 0:19:51.520 --> 0:20:01.960 I want to drive. It's a good question. Drive. This 0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:08.159