1 00:00:01,760 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm 2 00:00:04,440 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 3 00:00:07,280 --> 00:00:09,800 Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 4 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 1: clus technology, politics, economics, all partnising the power of Business 5 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 6 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,600 Speaker 1: analyst in more than one and twenty countries. 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Over the summer, the blockchain 11 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: ecosystem Topple raising fifteen million dollars in a series a 12 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: funding round that's on top of a five million dollar 13 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 1: seed round which happened back in so we want to 14 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: talk a little about the business and what they're up to. 15 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: Chris Georgia and the founder and managing director of Topple, 16 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 1: joining us from Houston, Texas. Chris, how are you? You're great? 17 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: It's happy to be on today. Yeah, thanks so much 18 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,520 Speaker 1: for joining us. I I coinker a show called Crypto 19 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 1: I r L and I still think there's so much 20 00:00:56,600 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 1: confusion over what exactly the blockchain is is and what 21 00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: it can do. And in a recent episode actually talked 22 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: about this. I said that, you know, we've been hearing 23 00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,479 Speaker 1: about the promises the blockchain for over a decade at 24 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: this point, and consumers have yet to see a point 25 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: in their lives it has actually gotten better as a 26 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:16,400 Speaker 1: result of this technology. Uh would you disagree with that 27 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 1: or would you agree with that? Well, I would definitely 28 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 1: agree with that. Um, you know, for a lot of people, 29 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 1: it hasn't become apparent yet. You know, we're starting to 30 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 1: have some small use cases, you know, supply chain traceability, 31 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: carbon credits, you know, starting to be tracked this way. 32 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: But I think we all need to remember that blockchain 33 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 1: came onto the scene from a retail perspective very early 34 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,399 Speaker 1: in its lifespan. You know, a I got started in 35 00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: the sixties, but I think none of us really heard 36 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 1: about it until fifteen years ago. So blockchain is kind 37 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:49,520 Speaker 1: of had its coming out party in a very public way. 38 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: So remind our world, Chris, what you are doing specifically, 39 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: and what kind of companies are you working with, and 40 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 1: maybe who are your biggest partners or customers. Is at 41 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: this point absolutely. So the way that we think about 42 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: TOPPLE is we think of it as blockchain for sustainability, 43 00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 1: for positive impact or you know, to use an acronym 44 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: for for e s G. And what that means is 45 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:16,080 Speaker 1: we're doing everything from tracking and tracing conflict free diamonds 46 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:19,679 Speaker 1: moving around the world or fair wage agriculture. We work 47 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: with energy companies and you know, big project developers to issue, track, 48 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 1: buy and sell carbon credits. So we do a lot 49 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: with powering the energy transition, and we do a lot 50 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:33,960 Speaker 1: to help clean up supply chains, you know, making sure 51 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 1: that they're properly environmentally sustainable and also you know, following 52 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,359 Speaker 1: good labor practices as well. So dig a little bit deeper. 53 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 1: How do you do that? Because the big part, you know, 54 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 1: you say es G and kind of the hairs in 55 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 1: my neck perk up because I think we keep saying, 56 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 1: or I certainly keep saying that E s G feels 57 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: like it's going through a reckoning after years and years 58 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:56,600 Speaker 1: of good performance in an upbeat market, a bullush market. Um, 59 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: it's going through a reckoning where people want visibility, transparency 60 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:04,120 Speaker 1: and at our understanding, uh, and so tell us, how 61 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:08,079 Speaker 1: what are you what's your proprietary technology that helps customers 62 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 1: make sure that they are complying by real E s 63 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:15,360 Speaker 1: G means if you will, absolutely, And the way that 64 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 1: we think about how blockchain fits into this is blockchain 65 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: can be open, blockchain can be decentralized. And really one 66 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:22,919 Speaker 1: of the biggest problems with a lot of E s 67 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: G claims is they're being assembled after the fact that 68 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 1: a main corporate office months after something supposedly or hopefully 69 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,040 Speaker 1: happened somewhere out in a plant or out in the field. Well, 70 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: blockchain technology and what we're able to do is get 71 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 1: data directly from when it's happening. So maybe that's taking 72 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: inputs directly from SMS information from that what's SMS text 73 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: messages for everyone, um, so you know, maybe farmers are 74 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 1: text interacting with the system, or there's IoT or satellite 75 00:03:56,400 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: information that's being fed directly into technology. So you don't 76 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 1: have kind of like an after the fact report being assembled, 77 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:08,040 Speaker 1: but you've got data being sourced directly from on the 78 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 1: ground or where that impact is supposed to be happening, 79 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 1: and that's being able to you know, relay direct to 80 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:17,039 Speaker 1: investors get more transparent access to it, or consumers get 81 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,359 Speaker 1: more transparent access to it. Chris, this conversation reminds me 82 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 1: of the way that we've seen Google Glass develop and 83 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,720 Speaker 1: the technology and heads up displays develop over the last 84 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: well only in the sense of, you know, when this 85 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:31,480 Speaker 1: came out that Google had this video of you know, 86 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 1: everyday people wearing these glasses and you know, a heads 87 00:04:34,800 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 1: up display saying, you know, walking down a subway into 88 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 1: a into a subway station underground and it's like, oh, 89 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: you know something pops up, subways closed, better go use 90 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 1: another one, that sort of thing. But what ended up 91 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: happening was, you know, consumers didn't want that type of technology, 92 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:49,480 Speaker 1: didn't like the way that they interacted with it. The 93 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:52,240 Speaker 1: technology was then used in warehouses and it's like caught 94 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: up on the industrial side of things. Do you see 95 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: that happening with with blockchain, Like, you know, something was 96 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,320 Speaker 1: promised to consumers, but it's actually more applica bull in 97 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:05,160 Speaker 1: an industrial in an industrial space. I think the earliest 98 00:05:05,240 --> 00:05:08,320 Speaker 1: use cases absolutely, you know, will fall into that pattern. 99 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:10,520 Speaker 1: And you know that's really the pattern that we're following 100 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: as well. You know, it's it's right now, it's behind 101 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 1: the scenes technology, it's powering applications and platforms that are 102 00:05:18,200 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: all being built on top of it. UM. There's still 103 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,480 Speaker 1: probably a long way that innovation that can go. And 104 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: so you know, just like we might see Google lots 105 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:28,520 Speaker 1: or you know, a competitor make a reemergence once the 106 00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:32,560 Speaker 1: technology is you know, ready to come back out of industry. 107 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 1: You know, i'd say in the next two to four years, 108 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 1: we'll see that on the consumer side or the blockchain 109 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 1: as well. Hey listen, just get about forty five seconds 110 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: left here, R Bloomberg. We care about this kind of stuff. 111 00:05:42,400 --> 00:05:44,880 Speaker 1: You guys are raising money from investors, So what's been 112 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: the growth in your business top line? And I'm assuming 113 00:05:47,400 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 1: you're not profitable yet, but you can clarify so some 114 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: of this is kind of uh, you know still you know, 115 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: private information. But you know, over the last year, we've 116 00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:00,479 Speaker 1: on boarded about thirty different projects UM all across the 117 00:06:00,520 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 1: world onto the platform. I think we're active with projects 118 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:08,080 Speaker 1: across five continents right now. Team is growing healthily. I 119 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:10,679 Speaker 1: think we've just on boarded our thirty five person UM. 120 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:12,599 Speaker 1: So it's also a great time to be hiring in 121 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,159 Speaker 1: the tech space. So I've been really enjoying that as well. 122 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,680 Speaker 1: All right, Well, no slowdown? So that is it like 123 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 1: double did you grass? Yeah? I didn't hear it? Pretty 124 00:06:20,800 --> 00:06:24,560 Speaker 1: close that okay, well listen, good to know and uh, 125 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:27,680 Speaker 1: it's definitely a world that we're interested. Tim is all 126 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 1: over it on his shoe. Watch our new show Crypto 127 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: I r L Tonight eight thirty Bloomberg TV. Little Little Love. 128 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,640 Speaker 1: I like that. That's the that's the like fifth of 129 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: more plugs. Okay, I love it. Um our. Thanks to 130 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:45,919 Speaker 1: Chris of Course, founder imaging director of Topple here on Bloomberg. 131 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg 132 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:54,000 Speaker 1: Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Do you want 133 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: to get back to something we just talked about with 134 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: our Mike mckeean. We're talking about this morning's jobs report. 135 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: Just a reminder the US labor markets staying strong. In September, 136 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate unexpectedly returned to an historic low, leaving 137 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 1: the Fed on course to deliver yet another aggressive interest 138 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:13,400 Speaker 1: rate hike. Non Farm payrolls increased two hundred sixty three 139 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 1: thousand in September after three gain in August. Unemployment rate 140 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: dropped to three and a half percent. That matched a 141 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: five decade low average. Really earnings rising firmly. Tim Well, 142 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 1: we like to turn to on days like this. Becky 143 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,520 Speaker 1: frank Witz, chief commercial Officer, President North America for Manpower Group. 144 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 1: Becky joining us this afternoon on the phone from Chicago. 145 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: Manpower Group, of course, a placement firm that works around 146 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: the globe and has a really good understanding of what 147 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:40,880 Speaker 1: exactly is happening when it comes to jobs in this 148 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 1: economy and more. Becky, good, good to have you back 149 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 1: with us. How are you hi, Tim Well? Thank you good? Good? So. Um, 150 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:48,920 Speaker 1: any surprises in the jobs report that we got, we 151 00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 1: know for the equity market, it's another good news is 152 00:07:50,800 --> 00:07:54,240 Speaker 1: bad news scenario. Yes, I'd say, you know, first, we 153 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: saw some softening, gradual softening month over month, which is 154 00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: actually good for employers. Tim. I know it sounds cow 155 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 1: are intuitive, but a little bit of release of pressure 156 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: in this really tight labor market is actually encouraging because 157 00:08:06,640 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: employers are hoping they can actually you know, fill some roles. Now. Um, 158 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:12,920 Speaker 1: A surprise earlier in the week is it quit rates. 159 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: Quit rates prove that your job openings, you know, haven't 160 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: dissuaded people from resigning. Um, even if we go into 161 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 1: this holiday. So I would say that was a surprise 162 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:22,880 Speaker 1: at bit earlier in the week, and I think that 163 00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 1: you know, the no news is the news around wages. 164 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: UM also was clear in the reports this morning. So 165 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: what are you guys seeing at Manpower Group when it 166 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 1: comes to what companies need? Are they finding their need? 167 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: Give us some color behind these numbers that we got 168 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:38,600 Speaker 1: from the government and what you guys are seeing in 169 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: real time. Yeah, Carol, I'm so glad you asked that, 170 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: because you know, the job's report is is a backward 171 00:08:43,280 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 1: looking view. And so if you say, hey, what's going 172 00:08:45,280 --> 00:08:47,400 Speaker 1: on today, Banky, what's going on the labor market today? 173 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 1: I would say two big headlines. One is hybrid holiday. 174 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: So we are seeing retailers start to hire for what 175 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 1: I call hybrid and my kids make fun of me 176 00:08:56,920 --> 00:08:58,680 Speaker 1: because I said, it's it's I R L, you know, 177 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 1: in real life. So we're seeing people want to shop 178 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: in store, and therefore we're seeing roles associated store managers, 179 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:08,199 Speaker 1: service people in the inside retail. We're starting to see 180 00:09:08,280 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 1: some some pick up there as well as continuing growth 181 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:15,400 Speaker 1: around you know, logistics, delivery drivers, etcetera, which really didn't 182 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:17,160 Speaker 1: show up in the report today, and so it's a 183 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 1: it's a bit more delayed. Um, so that would be 184 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:21,679 Speaker 1: one big thing that we're seeing. And the second thing 185 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 1: we're seeing that it wasn't the report today is tech hiring. 186 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 1: Carroll continues to robust, aggressive and apparently slow down proof. 187 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 1: Really that's so weird because okay, because we get so 188 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: much anecdotal evidence, whether that's you know, Meta platforms, the 189 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,559 Speaker 1: parent company of Facebook, or you know, you just go 190 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,480 Speaker 1: and type in what ni job cuts in the Bloomberg 191 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 1: terminal and there's headline after headlines, so much of them 192 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 1: based in Silicon Valley. Are are you just using the 193 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: term tech differently? Is more a more encompassing term. Well, 194 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:52,680 Speaker 1: it's about tech skills, it's not about tech companies. And 195 00:09:52,720 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 1: so you're absolutely right. The headlines are front of the 196 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:59,320 Speaker 1: big tech companies. Yet every company today is in some 197 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:03,000 Speaker 1: part of tech company, and so anything anyone who might 198 00:10:03,040 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: have been impacted by Silicon Valley layoffs was rapidly picked 199 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,160 Speaker 1: up in either another industry or in a smaller company. 200 00:10:10,200 --> 00:10:13,520 Speaker 1: And tchech Unemployment is still under one percent in our country, 201 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 1: under one percent. You know, it's interesting. What was the 202 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 1: thing of labor hoarding. We were talking about where companies 203 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:21,520 Speaker 1: are afraid to let go of workers even if they're 204 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 1: a little nervous about the outlook, because they just maybe 205 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 1: they don't think they if we get a recession, it 206 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: won't be deep. And so they don't want to let 207 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:30,839 Speaker 1: go of workers because they know how tight the labor 208 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:33,040 Speaker 1: market is and they don't want to have to scramble 209 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 1: on the other side of it. What what can you 210 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 1: tell us about what you are seeing when it comes 211 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: to companies and doing labor labor hoarding. Yeah, so, so 212 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,840 Speaker 1: I'd say that we're still in a post pandemic labor recovery. 213 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:46,240 Speaker 1: And I know, you know, we like to think the 214 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 1: pandemic is roll over. Just now, supply chains are normalizing. 215 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 1: You've seen the headlines around freight costs going down, containers 216 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:57,040 Speaker 1: you know, now being readily available, lumber going down, and 217 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: so we're still in this post pandemic recovery. And in employers, 218 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 1: memories are long and they remember for the last eighteen 219 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 1: months they've not been able to find talent. And so, yes, Carrol, 220 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 1: we are seeing I love that term, by the way, 221 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,439 Speaker 1: labor hoarding. Um, we are seeing labor hoarding in some 222 00:11:11,480 --> 00:11:13,600 Speaker 1: places because you know, employers are afraid if I let 223 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: these people go, I may not be able to get 224 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:17,800 Speaker 1: them back in a few months when we all hope 225 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 1: the economy rebounds. Uh, can you give us some indication 226 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: on I don't know how you're looking forward a little 227 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 1: bit becky to understand what comes during the fourth quarter 228 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:30,280 Speaker 1: of the year and in Q one, because the excuse 229 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 1: me him getting a little ahead of myself. The FED 230 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:34,960 Speaker 1: is certainly trying to figure out what happens there, and 231 00:11:35,000 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 1: investors are as well. Yes, so I would say, you know, 232 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 1: holiday hiring is the weather vane. It's going to tell 233 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:41,840 Speaker 1: us what we're going to see for the rest of 234 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:43,960 Speaker 1: you know, at least the rest of this year, and 235 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: also into the very first part of three. So that 236 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:48,560 Speaker 1: would be one, you know, one thing. So if we 237 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:49,959 Speaker 1: see so okay, so let me just make sure I 238 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 1: understand this. If we see softness when it comes to 239 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: holiday hiring, that could be a bad sign. It could 240 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 1: be a concern. You know, so far we're seeing I 241 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 1: know you saw Amazon just announcer hiring a hundred and 242 00:11:58,720 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 1: fifty people for the holl Day and so you know 243 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: we'd see early signs of promise. But it's still early 244 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:05,200 Speaker 1: in the season, but that that is the weather vein 245 00:12:05,280 --> 00:12:07,640 Speaker 1: that we should all keep our our eyes on. Um. 246 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: I think the other is, you know, just the FED 247 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 1: take action again and what impact does that have on 248 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 1: the job market? And that's well outside of you know, 249 00:12:14,120 --> 00:12:17,520 Speaker 1: my control. Are you concerned the Fed over does it. 250 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 1: They've talked about where the unemployment rate needs to be 251 00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 1: potentially in order to bring down inflationary pressures. Are you 252 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 1: concerned that we will see maybe it's six months from now, 253 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:30,440 Speaker 1: maybe it's twelve months, maybe it's three months that we 254 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:34,280 Speaker 1: will see those unemployment claims to hire and a significant 255 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:36,680 Speaker 1: amount of people might be out of work. And just 256 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 1: got about thirty seconds, Becky, Yeah, so I would say, Carol, 257 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 1: I hope it's not significant. The labor market traditionally lags 258 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:44,959 Speaker 1: the economy. It's lagging it a bit more. So I'm 259 00:12:45,000 --> 00:12:47,520 Speaker 1: hoping the economy rebounds and the labor market has a 260 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 1: short and shallow decline. Okay, I'm gonna leave it there. Hey, listen, Becky, 261 00:12:52,240 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 1: have a great weekend. Good to check in with you, 262 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 1: Becky Frankoments. She's Chief commercial Officer, President of Manpower Group 263 00:12:58,520 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 1: North America and of Chris johan Elsa, she typically does 264 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,599 Speaker 1: on these monthly jobs data days, joining us on the 265 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: phone from Chicago. You know it's funny. I just I 266 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 1: was looking at an eye job cuts and there's just 267 00:13:08,559 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 1: so many stories. It's like, wait a minute, I don't understand. Um, 268 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 1: the job market is so good. Why does so many 269 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 1: people talk about layoffs? But the distinction that Becky made 270 00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:20,559 Speaker 1: is so important? Right, tech jobs versus tech companies? Yes, yes, 271 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 1: really important. Yeah. I think that could be a quick 272 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: take video. Sounds good, you want to do it. You're 273 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:31,239 Speaker 1: listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg 274 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Let's get to 275 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:37,840 Speaker 1: Julia Pollock, chief economists for Zipp recruiter. She joins us 276 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:39,559 Speaker 1: once again on the phone from Los Angeles. We like 277 00:13:39,679 --> 00:13:41,520 Speaker 1: checking in with her at least once a month when 278 00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 1: it comes to what she's seeing on her platform. Julia, 279 00:13:43,960 --> 00:13:46,320 Speaker 1: how are you very well? Thanks? And how are you 280 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 1: We're doing okay. It's good to have you with us 281 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 1: once again this afternoon. So when you saw these numbers 282 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: this morning, wasn't any surprise to you? After all, you 283 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 1: see what recruiters are looking for, and you see what 284 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,200 Speaker 1: job seekers are looking for on ZIP recruiters, so you 285 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: have a good, you know, good idea of what's how 286 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: opening in the economy. Was this a surprise to you? 287 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 1: Not at all. This is right in line with what 288 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 1: economists we're expecting, and vice line with what we've been 289 00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 1: seeing on our website. While employers are becoming a little 290 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 1: bit concerned about the future, outlook a bit more cautious, 291 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:16,600 Speaker 1: a bit more conservative, and they're hirings while they're reducing 292 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 1: job openings somewhat, they are still hiring when push comes 293 00:14:20,440 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 1: to shove because business conditions are still good and the 294 00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 1: consumer is still spending. So how do you cross this 295 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 1: with um all of the talk about recession. Obviously, the 296 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 1: financial markets tell a very different story. Uh. And we 297 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 1: did have a market guest who joined us earlier about 298 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 1: I think what's going on in terms of corporate earnings 299 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 1: that we've already had a corporate earnings recession, but we 300 00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 1: haven't had necessarily, yes, an economic recession. So companies who 301 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 1: have had to maybe cost because of inflationary pressures are 302 00:14:49,440 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 1: shown and so forth. You're saying they're reducing job openings, 303 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 1: but they're not letting folks go. Bottom line, that's that's 304 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 1: what it's going to be, UM, and we'll continue to 305 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:02,160 Speaker 1: be that way. Yes, because though companies are reducing headcount 306 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:05,440 Speaker 1: growth but not reducing headcount, and that is sort of 307 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: exactly I think what the said would like to see. 308 00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: They want to see that gap between job openings, the 309 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: number of unemployed people seeking them close. It was more 310 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 1: than five million a month ago. It's uh, it's shrank 311 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:20,280 Speaker 1: to four million in the most recent ULTS report earlier 312 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:24,240 Speaker 1: this this week. Uh. And if that gap narrows, you 313 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 1: will see people becoming a bit more reluctant to quit 314 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 1: their jobs, a little bit less confident in the availability 315 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 1: of alternatives, and that will reduce wage growth pressure a 316 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: little bit and also with its equation. UM. Want to 317 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: ask you, though, do we get to a point where 318 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: it's not just about reducing headcount growth but actually you 319 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: say they're not reducing headcount now, but do we get 320 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 1: to a point where companies are reducing headcount in your conversations, 321 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 1: do we start to see that? Well? We I mean, 322 00:15:50,800 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 1: we are seeing the lave market split into two groups now, 323 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: one group that's still adding jobs very rapidly and another 324 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:03,040 Speaker 1: group set of industries that are disproportionately affected by high 325 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:07,040 Speaker 1: interest rates. Uh. Those are industries like finance and insurance 326 00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 1: that lost thirteen thousand jobs in this report. UM building, 327 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 1: material and garden supply stores lost six thousand jobs. Car 328 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: dealerships lost almost two thousand jobs. You know, the US 329 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,600 Speaker 1: consumers are not able to tap into their houses and 330 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: use them as tiggy banks anymore the way they were 331 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 1: last year. They can't just refinance their house to buy 332 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: a new car or do some renovations on their home 333 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 1: because they're they're two thirds of US mortgages are now 334 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 1: below four percent, and two percent of mortgages only two 335 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 1: percent are adjustable rate mortgages. No one wants to jump 336 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: out of that into a much much much higher mortgage rate, 337 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:41,480 Speaker 1: which we're a and we're seeing that play out in 338 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 1: the housing market, Like you don't want to leave that 339 00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: that mortgage rate that sub four percent to buy something new. 340 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 1: So it's essentially at a standstill right now. Hey, Julia, 341 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 1: help us understand what this looks like in Q one 342 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 1: three and what it looks like for the year the 343 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: new year. You know, and typically in situations like this, 344 00:16:57,080 --> 00:16:59,320 Speaker 1: like how should we expect things to start looking when 345 00:16:59,360 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: it comes to the layment front. Sure, so this job 346 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,119 Speaker 1: gain that we just saw two sixty three thousand is 347 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,120 Speaker 1: about five times what we would need to keep pace 348 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 1: with population growth right now. So we uh could see 349 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 1: job gains slow gradually and continue to slow a little 350 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:21,439 Speaker 1: bit while the economy continues to add jobs across a 351 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,000 Speaker 1: broad set of industries and not just you know, low 352 00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,359 Speaker 1: wage jobs, not just minimum wage jobs, but good jobs 353 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 1: as well. Um, we will see some sexual pain. I 354 00:17:29,520 --> 00:17:31,240 Speaker 1: mean there there are parts of the economies that are 355 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 1: hard hit by rising interest rates and low stock prices 356 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 1: and a very strong dollar. Big tech, major enterprise companies, UM, 357 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 1: many of them earn the majority of their revenue abroad, 358 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:46,639 Speaker 1: and so uh those non dollar denominated sales are hurting 359 00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:50,160 Speaker 1: their margins. UM. But you know, the typical like main 360 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:54,439 Speaker 1: street business that buys inputs from abroad cheaply now and 361 00:17:54,520 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 1: is getting all of its revenue here at home. Those 362 00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,679 Speaker 1: companies are still, by and large doing quite well. So, Julie, 363 00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 1: if I go to your website, I have the option 364 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: of saying, there's a question what brings you here today? 365 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: I'm looking for a job right now, I'm looking for 366 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,639 Speaker 1: a job, but no, Rush, I'm just browsing. Next. What 367 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:14,640 Speaker 1: do most people hit? Do you know? Yes? So, Um, 368 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: you know, about half of people are looking for a 369 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 1: job right away and they know exactly what they want 370 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:22,919 Speaker 1: to look for. But there is a huge set of 371 00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:25,240 Speaker 1: people who come to the website and don't know what 372 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:27,359 Speaker 1: they're looking for. They're they're just looking for a job, 373 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:29,640 Speaker 1: and that's why they come to us, because we can 374 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,919 Speaker 1: help match them two jobs that match their skills and 375 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 1: experience levels. Um. Many people have no idea. Um. Uh, 376 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,200 Speaker 1: you know, the most common search on our website is 377 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,880 Speaker 1: a blank search and that that is exactly I think. 378 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 1: Why mean a blank search where they just hit search 379 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:47,160 Speaker 1: but they don't fill anything in. They don't they don't 380 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 1: know what job titles they're looking for. Um, they're looking 381 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: for a job, but they don't even know what's out there. 382 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:54,920 Speaker 1: They don't know the possibilities. Uh. You know, no one 383 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 1: trains you to to search for a job. It's something 384 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: you don't learn school. Many people also leave learning about 385 00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 1: looking at the lave market until it's kind of too 386 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 1: late to match to get the skills that they would 387 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 1: actually need to get a great job. Julia, When we 388 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,160 Speaker 1: have twenty seconds left here. But what about employers are 389 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: they are not looking for jobs to the same extent 390 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 1: that they were, you know, just six months ago. Employers 391 00:19:18,760 --> 00:19:21,879 Speaker 1: are are worried about the future outlooks. But business is 392 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,719 Speaker 1: still good and so they're still hiring and uh and 393 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 1: that means they're great opportunity still. This is where we 394 00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: scratched our heads. It's just a crazy environment. Hey, Julia, 395 00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 1: thanks so much, Julia Pollock. She's chief economists ZIP recruiter 396 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 1: with us on the phone from Los Angeles. You get 397 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,120 Speaker 1: a job, you get a job, You get a job. 398 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:46,360 Speaker 1: That's what it feels like. I'm row a journal. Yeah, 399 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 1: I bet you let me drive. Oh no, no, no no, no, please, 400 00:19:51,520 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 1: I want to drive. It's a good question. Drive. This 401 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:08,159 Speaker 1: is good. Drive to the clothes on blue Bird Radio. 402 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,560 Speaker 1: All right, everybody, just about eleven minutes left in today's 403 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 1: trading session, getting ready to wrap up what has been 404 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 1: a wild, vaulatile week here in the trade. Having said that, 405 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:18,840 Speaker 1: I do want to point out, as we see stock 406 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,360 Speaker 1: selling off in a big way today, we're off our 407 00:20:21,359 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 1: worst levels of the session, and we are still up 408 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 1: nearly two percent on the Dow Jones Industrial average this week, 409 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 1: up about one point three percent for the SNP for 410 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: the week overall, and just holding onto about a six 411 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 1: tenths of one percent gain in the past five days, 412 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 1: but again seeing some significant selling in today's session, and 413 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 1: I will say that one reduced volume I think in 414 00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 1: particular for the SNP. Let's get into it with Brian Jacobson, 415 00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:47,399 Speaker 1: senior investment strategies at all Spring Global Investments. They've got 416 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 1: a little bit shy of five billion dollars in assets 417 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:51,920 Speaker 1: under management. Brian joins us once again on the phone 418 00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:56,080 Speaker 1: from Milwaukee. Brian, how you doing? I have ye better 419 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 1: than the markets. Okay, that's good that we don't tie 420 00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,160 Speaker 1: you know how you're doing to markets, because that can be, 421 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,680 Speaker 1: as we all know, a fool's errand um. But but 422 00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:05,360 Speaker 1: how do you weigh in on what's going on here? 423 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,320 Speaker 1: Because at the start of the week we saw the 424 00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:09,159 Speaker 1: two day rally that you know, it was the biggest 425 00:21:09,160 --> 00:21:12,439 Speaker 1: two day rally that we've seen in two years, leading 426 00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:14,639 Speaker 1: many to say, wait a second, Perhaps there was some 427 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:17,920 Speaker 1: short covering there, but also echoes of maybe a FED pivot. 428 00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:21,000 Speaker 1: We can throw that out the window now, right, Yeah, 429 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,520 Speaker 1: I think the FED pivot that's not going to happen 430 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: until they take the blinders off, right, and I don't 431 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 1: think that they really want to even contemplate changing their 432 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 1: tune until they get the four and a half percent 433 00:21:31,400 --> 00:21:34,560 Speaker 1: with the FED funds rate. So here at all spring 434 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,040 Speaker 1: my Systematic Edge multi asset team. We had our one 435 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,679 Speaker 1: of our many tactical calls this morning discussing kind of 436 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 1: doing a little debrief about what was going on. And 437 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: I think that you know, Ned Davis was famous for 438 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,959 Speaker 1: a lot of his wisdom, the trend is your friend, 439 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 1: and don't fight the Fed. But now you can kind 440 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:57,119 Speaker 1: of paraphrase that by saying, don't fight the trend because 441 00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 1: the Fed isn't your friend and the trend, unfortunately, is 442 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 1: towards weakness. Okay, in terms of the meeting you talked 443 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:09,120 Speaker 1: about having with your team, how much did coming how 444 00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 1: much did finding a bottom kind of come up in 445 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 1: that discussion or nearing a bottom because the market was very, 446 00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:19,400 Speaker 1: very oversold prior to the rally earlier this week. Yeah, 447 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 1: and we agree that there was generally over sold in 448 00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:26,280 Speaker 1: we're expecting some bear market bounces. One of the challenges 449 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:31,359 Speaker 1: is just looking back at history and recognizing that most 450 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:36,959 Speaker 1: bear markets don't really end until recessions begin, right, And 451 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,520 Speaker 1: you know that's just been the history going back to 452 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 1: the eleven bearer markets that we've had around recessions, and 453 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 1: they typically and within a month or two of the 454 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 1: recession starting now, I think you could look at earning 455 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:55,680 Speaker 1: season and quarterly earnings. We've actually had two sequential quarters 456 00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:59,520 Speaker 1: in a row of declines in SMP as reported an 457 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 1: opera the in earnings. So maybe we already have a 458 00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,679 Speaker 1: profit recession in the books. But the problem is is 459 00:23:05,720 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 1: that we probably don't have the economic recession but broader 460 00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:11,679 Speaker 1: one until some time in two thousand twenty three. So 461 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,720 Speaker 1: you're saying probably already an earnings recession, but not necessarily 462 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,960 Speaker 1: an economic recession yet exactly. And we think that maybe 463 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 1: this that's kind of what makes this time somewhat unique, 464 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:26,160 Speaker 1: is that the earnings recession maybe happened before the economic recession. 465 00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: And so then the question for us becomes one of 466 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 1: how do you build a portfolio that's most resilient to 467 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,800 Speaker 1: an economic recession. And that's where there's all sorts of 468 00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:40,120 Speaker 1: wonderful divergences within the market, small cat and value Emerging 469 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 1: markets from a valuation perspective look like they've already experienced 470 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 1: those recessionary conditions, whereas other parts maybe not so much. 471 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 1: And let me ask you, so, if it's an earnings 472 00:23:49,320 --> 00:23:54,400 Speaker 1: recession already, why aren't companies letting go of more workers 473 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:59,200 Speaker 1: that ultimately would show up in the labor numbers. Yeah, 474 00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 1: you know, I think the guys of how challenging it 475 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 1: was to fill those vacancies, they might be a little 476 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 1: hesitant to let them out exactly. So it's kind of 477 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 1: the economic theory of labor hoarding, where it's one of 478 00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 1: the reasons why the labor market is a lagging economic indicator. 479 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,200 Speaker 1: You don't you really look at it for an indicator 480 00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,840 Speaker 1: about where the economy is going, because you know it's 481 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:25,439 Speaker 1: costly to find someone trained them, and companies, you know, 482 00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,760 Speaker 1: they don't necessarily just want to let those people go. Um. 483 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: And it's one of the reasons why it's a little 484 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:35,959 Speaker 1: uncomfortable to hear the FED talks so much about wanting 485 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,959 Speaker 1: to see more labor market weakness, because you're not going 486 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 1: to see the labor market weakness until it's too late 487 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,120 Speaker 1: for the rest of the economy. That just means that 488 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,879 Speaker 1: you're already in the midst of the draw down of 489 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:53,040 Speaker 1: broader economic activity. What kind of scenario Brian is priced 490 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 1: into equity markets right now? You know, the way that 491 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:58,800 Speaker 1: we're looking at it is that the market is pricing 492 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:03,600 Speaker 1: in a fairly mile recession, one where maybe you know, 493 00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 1: there's a little bit more downside. Uh, We're expecting to 494 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:11,119 Speaker 1: see some more bear market rallies, some choppy trading, probably 495 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:15,520 Speaker 1: until the FED actually does begin to pivot, which isn't 496 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 1: likely going to be until maybe third quarter of two 497 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 1: thousand twenty three. So perhaps for the full next year 498 00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 1: we can expect to have this type of choppy trading 499 00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 1: ahead of US. UH. And so we think that the 500 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:30,399 Speaker 1: market is well choppy all year. It's been tabu a year. 501 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,119 Speaker 1: But how much chopping this happens though? As again you 502 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 1: try to find a bottom. And I guess I keep 503 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 1: pushing this a little bit because if I look at 504 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,879 Speaker 1: you know, we're still on track for the best weekend stocks. 505 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:43,000 Speaker 1: If I look at the spire in the past month, 506 00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 1: is that a significant trade? Essentially? Yeah? Isn't that interesting 507 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 1: that it's one of the best weeks but also one 508 00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:53,639 Speaker 1: of the worst days? And yeah, And and that is 509 00:25:53,760 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 1: I think one of the characteristics of the finding a bottom, 510 00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 1: but it doesn't Just because you find a bottom doesn't 511 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:01,760 Speaker 1: mean that you have to rise from that bottom. And 512 00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: I think that's the position that we're in right now. Okay, 513 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 1: that's interesting towards that bottom, and it's just going to 514 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 1: be that choppy trading until we do get a whiff 515 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 1: of a FED pivot, which isn't likely going to happen 516 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,320 Speaker 1: until you know, they get up to four and a 517 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,800 Speaker 1: half percent and hold it for a while, in which 518 00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:24,040 Speaker 1: you know is good for active traders and active managers 519 00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 1: like on my team, we do a lot of tactical 520 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 1: traits and so it's a fun way to try to 521 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:31,159 Speaker 1: add value, but it's not necessarily the most comfortable ride 522 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 1: for strategic one term investors. So when do we start 523 00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,280 Speaker 1: to see uh? I mean, it's it's interesting because it's 524 00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 1: if you say that, you know, if the FED pivot 525 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,160 Speaker 1: could be unlikely until we get up to four point 526 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,439 Speaker 1: five percent, when do we get there? Because as Mike 527 00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,440 Speaker 1: McKie has talked about on our air a lot, it's 528 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,920 Speaker 1: you know, as important as how long it stays at 529 00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:56,040 Speaker 1: you know, the terminal rate true exactly, it's the entire 530 00:26:56,160 --> 00:27:00,440 Speaker 1: contour of the path of rate Hypes and I think 531 00:27:00,440 --> 00:27:02,920 Speaker 1: that's why the market maybe got a little excited on 532 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,959 Speaker 1: Monday and Tuesday, the idea that oh maybe we can 533 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:07,480 Speaker 1: only have to go up to four and a quarter 534 00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 1: and maybe they can begin to pivot mid two thousand 535 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:13,439 Speaker 1: twenty three. But looking at FED funds futures today, now 536 00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:15,680 Speaker 1: it's pricing in well, then maybe they want to get 537 00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:19,439 Speaker 1: up to an upper end of about four point seven five, right, 538 00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:22,440 Speaker 1: and hold it until towards the end of two thousand 539 00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 1: twenty three, And that seems reasonable. And it's that change 540 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:28,400 Speaker 1: in the expectation which you might see that as far 541 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,120 Speaker 1: as some more descents from some of the more devish 542 00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,920 Speaker 1: members of the FED that maybe they've pushed things too far, 543 00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,399 Speaker 1: too fast and they really need to take a little breather. 544 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:38,520 Speaker 1: Just got about forty seconds left here, so you we 545 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:40,920 Speaker 1: can talk all the macro that we want, but ultimately 546 00:27:41,000 --> 00:27:42,560 Speaker 1: the end of the day, right, you've got to do 547 00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:45,359 Speaker 1: something for your investors, and they don't always love to 548 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 1: just throw things in cash, although in this environment we 549 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,920 Speaker 1: know cash has been more interesting than as of late. 550 00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:53,200 Speaker 1: So what do we do with money right now? Brian? Yeah, well, 551 00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:55,399 Speaker 1: cash is a wonderful investments as far as what the 552 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,080 Speaker 1: yield that you can get on it, and so our 553 00:27:57,080 --> 00:28:00,679 Speaker 1: short duration strategies are doing quite well as a result 554 00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,120 Speaker 1: of this increase in yields. But we're finding some really 555 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:09,360 Speaker 1: good opportunities longer term consumer staples, small camp value, emerging markets, 556 00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 1: especially those on the emerging market side with the focus 557 00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 1: on equity income. Uh and even just adding some of them. 558 00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,119 Speaker 1: Are worried about the strong dollar on the emerging markets 559 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,119 Speaker 1: just quickly, Uh, not really all that worried about it, 560 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,120 Speaker 1: because maybe we might be closer to the peak of 561 00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:26,399 Speaker 1: the dollar as opposed to the trough for the dollars. 562 00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 1: So a lot of the pain is hopefully mostly behind us. 563 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 1: All Right, we gotta run. Hey, listen, have a great weekend. 564 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,640 Speaker 1: Brian Jacobson, he's senior investment Strategies at all Spring Global Investments, 565 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 1: four seventies six billion dollars in assets under management, on 566 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 1: the phone from Milwaukee. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. 567 00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:46,440 Speaker 1: Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com, 568 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,160 Speaker 1: and you can also listen to our radio show at 569 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 1: two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on YouTube. 570 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 1: Sarah to Bloomberg Global News