1 00:00:02,920 --> 00:00:10,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:12,719 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. 3 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 2: Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay. 4 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:18,480 Speaker 1: And then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. 5 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 6 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 2: us live on YouTube. 7 00:00:25,840 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 3: Welcome to the Thursday edition of Balance of Power. It's 8 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 3: Little Friday, and we pick up in Washington right where 9 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:35,239 Speaker 3: we left off yesterday, with big questions about how this 10 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 3: is all going to work in the US House when 11 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:41,520 Speaker 3: it comes to funding for Ukraine, for Israel and Taiwan. 12 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 3: The fourth bill, by the way, did eventually drop. This 13 00:00:44,720 --> 00:00:48,120 Speaker 3: is the divest Or band TikTok bill. It's got the 14 00:00:48,200 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 3: REPO money and apparently some Iranian sanctions. 15 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 4: The question is will all of this pass? 16 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 3: And it looks like the answer maybe yes, but only 17 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,960 Speaker 3: with the help of Democrats. The headline on the terminal 18 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 3: today Eric Wasson, reporting from Capitol Hill, Ukraine is reelaid 19 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 3: on track to pass as Democrats back plan. That's not 20 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 3: going to help his standing, most likely with the Freedom 21 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,480 Speaker 3: Caucus today, but it might get the job done. With 22 00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 3: questions about his potential to be fired in the middle 23 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 3: of all this with a motion to vacate. Now two 24 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 3: lawmakers on it. We can get into that as well 25 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 3: with Eric in a moment. But I will point you 26 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,000 Speaker 3: to another headline. The White House is not waiting US 27 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 3: ready's Ukraine package that can be sent when aid bill passes. 28 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 3: Bloomberg News also reporting the Biden administration preparing a military 29 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 3: aid shipment the minute he signs the bill. So the 30 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:46,119 Speaker 3: gears are turning here. It's just a question exactly how 31 00:01:46,160 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 3: all of this is going to end. And Eric Wasson 32 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:51,760 Speaker 3: has been in the halls of Congress all day, joins 33 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 3: us right now with the latest on this. Eric, We've 34 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 3: got to pass a rule first, Right, this is the 35 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 3: hard part for Mike Johnson. 36 00:01:58,160 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 4: What's the latest? 37 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 5: You know, I just I got to emphasize to the 38 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 5: listeners this is really my base case. Is this Ukraine 39 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:06,560 Speaker 5: package is going out, is going to pass. I mean, 40 00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 5: this is really on track here. Democrats are lining up. 41 00:02:09,480 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 5: Of course they're saying we want to see the rules, 42 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,520 Speaker 5: we want to see the details. But you know, the 43 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 5: momentum is here. The die is cast. This fourth build 44 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 5: up materialized, does not have poison pills. There's some question 45 00:02:19,960 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 5: about liquid natural gas exports being put in there top 46 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:25,560 Speaker 5: priority for the speaker. He did not put that in 47 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 5: there knowing Democrats didn't like it. The stuff that is 48 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:32,239 Speaker 5: in there, the TikTok ban very popular in both parties. 49 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 5: In fact, they even made it more popular by giving 50 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 5: TikTok until after the election to be dealt with. So 51 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 5: there's no real chance that, you know, you're gonna have 52 00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 5: young people streaming to the polls to House politicians for 53 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:47,120 Speaker 5: banning their favorite social media app. I mean, this is 54 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,520 Speaker 5: really the glide path has really been set, you know, 55 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 5: as you said, the real question is too Johnson, you know, 56 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 5: face an ouster threat. I just came from extraordinary scrum 57 00:02:57,240 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 5: with Matt Gates and Lauren Bobert, who are irate. There's, 58 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 5: you know, some talk among Republicans of trying to defang 59 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,800 Speaker 5: this motion to vacate to make it more difficult, you know, 60 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 5: make sure there's more people have to be on board 61 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:13,120 Speaker 5: to raise this. And they basically told the speaker moments 62 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:15,519 Speaker 5: ago on the House floor, if you do that, we're 63 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,119 Speaker 5: going to pull the motion to vacate right now. We're 64 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,120 Speaker 5: going to fire this gun before you take it away, 65 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 5: you know. So I just think that they're they're very 66 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:26,799 Speaker 5: angry with him about that. I think he's going to 67 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 5: probably have to back off. But we'll see that's something 68 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,200 Speaker 5: going on behind the scenes. They might sert us into 69 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 5: the rule of the Ukraine bill because it's going to 70 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 5: need Democrats anyhow. 71 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 3: So that you just said a lot, Eric, just to 72 00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 3: unpack a little bit of that. The motion to vacate 73 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 3: there was a movement that would require more than one lawmaker, right, 74 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 3: that would make it more difficult to fire the speaker. 75 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:50,640 Speaker 3: It sounds like that movement might be going down in flames. 76 00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 4: Will there be a. 77 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 3: Rule though, Eric, or does the speaker have to suspend 78 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 3: rules and use Democrats to pass these? 79 00:03:57,800 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 5: Now that's going to be a rule vote, you know, 80 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:03,440 Speaker 5: It's it's an interesting combination of things. There's Democrats who 81 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 5: you know, object to the Israel bill. This is all 82 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 5: going to come up under a rule I just think 83 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 5: what's going to happen. It's very extraordinary here Democrats and 84 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 5: the Rules committee and on the floor are going to 85 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:16,080 Speaker 5: have to vote for it. I know this sounds all 86 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:20,960 Speaker 5: very procedural, but basically this is usually shirts and skins 87 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 5: type of vote, like the party in charge votes for 88 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 5: the rules sets for debate and the plready out of 89 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:28,919 Speaker 5: power votes against it. But this has there is precedent 90 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 5: for crossing the lines. In May, on the debt ceialing vote, 91 00:04:33,200 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 5: when the US was facing a payment's default, Democrats fifty 92 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 5: two of them crossed the line to make sure that 93 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 5: debate could start on that bill. So you know they've 94 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 5: done this before, and I think that's where we're headed 95 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 5: right now. 96 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:46,920 Speaker 3: There was an attempt to move a border bill through 97 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 3: the Rules Committee that. 98 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:51,719 Speaker 4: Did not work out last night. 99 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 3: Eric chip Roy, of course, a Republican from Texas Freedom 100 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 3: Caucus and thorn in the side of the speaker, wrote 101 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 3: sorry not sorry for opposing a crappy rule that is 102 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:05,719 Speaker 3: a show vote cover vote for funding Ukraine instead of 103 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,840 Speaker 3: border security. Does that mean there will be no border 104 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:10,840 Speaker 3: component here or is it up in the air. 105 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 5: Well, you know, there was not going to be a 106 00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 5: border component. There was going to be a separate vote, 107 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 5: and that was really something to sort of like, you know, 108 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 5: a distraction. Basically, I think Roy is correct if you're 109 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 5: not going to put it in the package, just holding 110 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:26,480 Speaker 5: that vote. The House has already passed a border security 111 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 5: bill that's dead in the Senate. If it's not attached 112 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 5: to Ukraine, this would be dead as well. So it's 113 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:34,040 Speaker 5: something kind of like God, you know, give me And 114 00:05:34,520 --> 00:05:36,479 Speaker 5: they were like, we're not having any part of that. 115 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:38,359 Speaker 5: We're not going to allow to do that. It's interesting 116 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 5: the Speaker puts out fact sheets on this Ukraine bill 117 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 5: and he mentions border, but if you know what's going on, 118 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 5: the border is not part of it. 119 00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:51,640 Speaker 3: Lastly, Eric, I just wonder the evolution of the speaker, 120 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 3: if you can talk about this. This Ukraine funding has 121 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 3: been very controversial. He's been talking about how we need 122 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 3: to secure our own border first. 123 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 4: But as words yesterday were powerful. 124 00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 3: As he talked to reporters and I think you were 125 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:06,440 Speaker 3: standing there, he said, I think he might go to 126 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 3: the Balkans next. Referring to Vladimir Putin, he said, I 127 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:13,040 Speaker 3: really do believe the intel and the briefings that we've gotten. 128 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 3: I believe she Putin and Iran really are an access 129 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 3: of evil. I think they're in coordination on it. Did 130 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:23,039 Speaker 3: he get an intelligence briefing recently that changed his mind. 131 00:06:23,200 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 5: He's had a bunch of them, and I've talked to 132 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:27,600 Speaker 5: him for you know, several months over this. I think 133 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 5: he's been supportive of Ukraine ad. He's just trying to 134 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 5: find the right way to do it, to be respectful 135 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:33,279 Speaker 5: of his caucus. But at the end of the day, 136 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 5: he is a man of principle, a man of strong faith. 137 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 5: He's a devout Christian, but also does a man of 138 00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 5: you know, he's been a defense office as someone who's 139 00:06:40,520 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 5: on the Arm Services Committee, and I think he's made 140 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 5: the calculation. You know, he's going to stand by his 141 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 5: principles if he gets ousted. You know, as he said 142 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 5: later in that in that press conference, you know, he 143 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 5: can't live under the threat of being ousted. It'd be 144 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:53,919 Speaker 5: like any of us living on the thread of being fired, 145 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 5: constantly panicking about it, worried. You can't really live life 146 00:06:57,040 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 5: like that. So I think he's just decided, you know, 147 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:00,919 Speaker 5: he's going to try his bat and if they do 148 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 5: ask him, you know, he's had a career, he'll find 149 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 5: something else to do. 150 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 4: He's had a career. Eric. 151 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 3: Thank you, Eric Watson live on Capitol Hill. A great reporting. 152 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 3: Eric has been a news machine, which is why you 153 00:07:12,480 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 3: see his byline all over the terminal and the website. 154 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:16,760 Speaker 4: When the news breaks, he'll have it for you. 155 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 3: He's been living outside the Speaker's office and great to 156 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 3: have him with us here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite, 157 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:23,040 Speaker 3: and on YouTube. 158 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 4: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. 159 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 3: There are questions, of course, about whether the speaker could 160 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 3: get fired here, and based on what we just heard 161 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 3: from Eric, it's not going to get any more difficult, 162 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 3: at least to fire a Speaker of the House. 163 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 4: There was a. 164 00:07:38,240 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 3: Thought that they might increase the threshold required, but that 165 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 3: doesn't appear based on what we just heard from Eric. 166 00:07:44,120 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 4: To be clearing the Rules committee. 167 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 3: We talked to Congressman Adam Smith about this yesterday, Democrat 168 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 3: from Washington about the idea of Democrats coming to potentially 169 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 3: save Mike Johnson to either leave the chamber or actually 170 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 3: vote for him to be speaker. 171 00:07:58,760 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 4: He's ready to do that. 172 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 6: Into what he said, I for one will not vote 173 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 6: to remove Speaker Johnson, and I know a number of 174 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:08,160 Speaker 6: other Democrats feel the same way that I do. There's 175 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:10,520 Speaker 6: kind of this KOI little thing back and forth as 176 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 6: to whether or not we say that publicly. I tend 177 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 6: to be more blunt and straightforward than most members, so 178 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:18,400 Speaker 6: I'm not going to be KOI about it. It doesn't 179 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 6: serve the interests of Congress or the country to remove 180 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,160 Speaker 6: the speaker at this point, and he's carried through with 181 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 6: his pledge to not abandon Ukraine, to give us a 182 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,360 Speaker 6: vote on Ukraine. And as long as he's done that, 183 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 6: I'm certainly not going to agree with Marjorie Taylor Green 184 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 6: about who the Speaker of the. 185 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 1: House should be. 186 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 4: How about it? 187 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 3: So Democrats are not just lining up to help pass 188 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,959 Speaker 3: these bills, They're maybe lining up to save his job, 189 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 3: which would answer one of the two big questions we 190 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:49,679 Speaker 3: have today. Is the Speaker going to get fired for this? 191 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:52,520 Speaker 3: And what will happen in the Senate when this legislation 192 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 3: set to pass, we're told goes next door. That's what 193 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 3: we want to talk to Bill Holdman about. Senior Vice 194 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:01,599 Speaker 3: President of the Bipartisan Policies and worked a career in 195 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:03,679 Speaker 3: the Senate before his time across the street from us 196 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 3: here in downtown Washington, Bill, it's great to have you back. 197 00:09:06,600 --> 00:09:09,080 Speaker 3: Is the Senate just ready to pass this thing? Or 198 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 3: is jd Vance, Is Rand Paul and others set to 199 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:12,640 Speaker 3: slow it down? 200 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:14,760 Speaker 7: No? 201 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,559 Speaker 8: I think first of all, if it does pass out 202 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 8: of the House, it will be the three bills that 203 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 8: will be bundled into one under the rule as we speak. 204 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 8: The Rules Committee, as course, is meeting right now to 205 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 8: deliberate the rule for consideration of the three bills. Interestingly enough, 206 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 8: normally the Democrats don't vote for the rule, the Democrats 207 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 8: on the Rules Committee, but it's my understanding that the 208 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 8: census has been worked out on a bipartisan basis, something 209 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 8: very unusual these days, of course, but to that extent 210 00:09:50,600 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 8: that the Democrats on the Rules Committee will overcome the 211 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 8: Freedom Caucus votes against reporting it out. Long story short, 212 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 8: then that those three bills will be debated individually, and 213 00:10:03,320 --> 00:10:05,840 Speaker 8: then the rule will allow for those three bills to 214 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 8: be bundled up into one and sent to the Senate. 215 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:12,320 Speaker 8: And I believe at that particular point there will be 216 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 8: more than sixty votes in the United States Senate to 217 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:19,080 Speaker 8: pass the bill, whether that's on Sunday night or Monday morning. 218 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 8: Literally the House and Senates to be out next week. 219 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:28,079 Speaker 8: But I think the Majority Leader Schumer will keep amensasion 220 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 8: to pass this bill. It should have been passed a 221 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:30,960 Speaker 8: long time ago. 222 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 4: So we have a working weekend bill. 223 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,079 Speaker 3: We've been talking about this for months, with your help, 224 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 3: what do you think it is that actually got the 225 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:42,760 Speaker 3: gears turning so quickly. Here was just the beginning of 226 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 3: this week we were told, hey, this might not be 227 00:10:44,920 --> 00:10:47,240 Speaker 3: done until June. It's just too complicated. But here we 228 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 3: are with the President who's pulling out the pen getting 229 00:10:50,280 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 3: ready to sign this. 230 00:10:52,320 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 8: Well, I think obviously the rounds missile attack on Israel 231 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 8: was a issue that created the impetus to move forward quickly. 232 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 8: I also think, to be honest with you, that well, 233 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,200 Speaker 8: the new Speaker has kind of grown into his job 234 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 8: and realizes that the only way in a very divided 235 00:11:18,880 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 8: and very narrow United States House, the only way that 236 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:24,679 Speaker 8: we can get anything done and move forward on some 237 00:11:24,720 --> 00:11:28,040 Speaker 8: of these critical issues is in a biparisan way. And 238 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 8: I think this is real credit to his leadership. Is 239 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:36,000 Speaker 8: growing into his leadership that he has moved forward with 240 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 8: this approach, which I find an interesting approach. It clearly 241 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 8: does have some a small piece of this It is 242 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 8: the top It is the same top line ninety five 243 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 8: point three billion dollars that was out of the Senate. 244 00:11:50,559 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 8: But there is a small element of that ninety five 245 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 8: point three which is a loane, non recourse loan. In 246 00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 8: the end of the day and I think that's enough 247 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 8: to get it, to get it over the hurdle in 248 00:12:01,960 --> 00:12:04,559 Speaker 8: the House and over to the Senate quickly. 249 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:12,080 Speaker 3: Well, this is pretty remarkable if Mike Johnson survives this, 250 00:12:13,040 --> 00:12:16,840 Speaker 3: even if there is or is not a a privileged 251 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,920 Speaker 3: motion to vacate, If he gets through this, and if 252 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 3: he gets this done, is he a made man? Does 253 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 3: this actually get him into the woodwork in a way 254 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 3: create support a galvanizing moment that he might not have 255 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 3: had otherwise, or are we just going to have motion 256 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,120 Speaker 3: to vacates every week for the rest of this Congress. 257 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:40,320 Speaker 8: Well, as you know, I'm a Senate staffer, a former 258 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 8: Senate staffer, not a house I don't know. I think 259 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 8: that the clock is clicking down here. We're moving into 260 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 8: clearly into the fall elections. I don't think most Republicans 261 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 8: want to go through another vacate of the speakers and 262 00:12:54,040 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 8: all that. So I think that he can get over 263 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 8: this hurdle. He shows that he has dship capability, that 264 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 8: he can negotiate and work it out. I wish that 265 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:05,200 Speaker 8: we had moved faster on it, and I think he 266 00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 8: probably does too. He's always been a supporter at the 267 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,400 Speaker 8: end of the day for Ukraine funding. So I think 268 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 8: he's had to work with a very difficult caucus, obviously 269 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 8: the Freedom Caucus. But I think he's showed him some 270 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:20,079 Speaker 8: real smril gumption here in terms of moving forward and 271 00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 8: standing up and saying the only thing that we can 272 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 8: do in this very divided Congress is to have bipartisanship. 273 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,200 Speaker 8: And of course, coming from the Bi Parson Policy Center, 274 00:13:28,960 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 8: I respect and admire him for finally getting to that 275 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:34,559 Speaker 8: position that that's the only way to govern in a 276 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 8: very divided House of Representatives. 277 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 4: I hate pulling you into the lower chamber bill. I 278 00:13:40,200 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 4: know you're better than that. 279 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,280 Speaker 3: But I'll ask you lastly, with the Senate in mind, 280 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:47,439 Speaker 3: they've been hemming and hawing about this TikTok divestor band bill, 281 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:50,720 Speaker 3: and apparently it's going to be on its way to 282 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 3: the Senate here, tied to this fourth piece of legislation. 283 00:13:54,120 --> 00:13:55,800 Speaker 3: Will senators have to just swallow it? 284 00:13:58,520 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 4: Listen. 285 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 8: I'll be honest with you. I'm not clear that that 286 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 8: fourth bill that includes the TikTok and imposing sanctions on Russia, 287 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,960 Speaker 8: I may be Eric. I missed Eric's comment so and 288 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:15,560 Speaker 8: he is great. I comment on Eric Watson. I thought 289 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 8: it was a separate I thought that the only three 290 00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:19,840 Speaker 8: bills that would be buddled into one would be the 291 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 8: Foreign Aid of bills. But you may be right. I 292 00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 8: did not realize that the TikTok bill, if it passes 293 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 8: the House, that it would be buddled with the other three. 294 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 8: I thought it was separate apart. But I apologize I don't. 295 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 4: That's quite all right. 296 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 3: The fact of the matter is, we're not exactly sure 297 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 3: how that's going to work here, Bill, but it sounds 298 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:43,400 Speaker 3: like the Senate has a problem with that legislation. We'll 299 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 3: just have to see where the narrative goes from here. 300 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 3: It's great to have you back, Bill Hoagland at the 301 00:14:47,360 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 3: Bipartisan Policy Center. Thank you, sir for being with us. 302 00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken 303 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:59,160 Speaker 1: just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play 304 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 1: and then Rodo with a Bloomberg business ad. 305 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:04,360 Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 306 00:15:04,400 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 307 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 3: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington with an eye on Pennsylvania 308 00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 3: for a third day. Right, We're on day three. Joe 309 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 3: Biden back again. Today's stumping in Pennsylvania, Philadelphia to be exact, 310 00:15:23,360 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 3: and the gosh the tire Kennedy family is with him. 311 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 3: Former Congressman Joe Kennedy the third is going to be 312 00:15:30,120 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 3: introducing him today. Of course, he is Joe Biden's special 313 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 3: envoy to Northern Ireland, as we told you here on 314 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 3: the program when we spoke a couple of weeks ago 315 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 3: in advance of Saint Patrick's day. Today, the President having 316 00:15:43,360 --> 00:15:45,880 Speaker 3: a pair of campaign events. This is the big one 317 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 3: though is the administration. The campaign, i should say, tries 318 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 3: to delineate between the Kennedys and RFK Junior Donald Trump. Meanwhile, 319 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 3: in court today, jury selection continues and it has been 320 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 3: an apps wild series of stories that we'll talk about 321 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 3: a little bit later on this hour. It brings me 322 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 3: to the latest research from the Harvard Kennedy School. Remarkable, 323 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:12,840 Speaker 3: the Institute of Politics out with its latest poll of 324 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 3: young voters. We spend so much time talking about this, 325 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 3: specifically with regard to Joe Biden, but we're going to 326 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 3: tackle both candidates in this case. In a conversation with 327 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 3: John Della Volpi, Harvard Kennedy School, Institute of Politics, director 328 00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:28,400 Speaker 3: of Polling, John, It's wonderful to have you on Bloomberg. 329 00:16:28,440 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 3: I appreciate your time today and thank you for joining 330 00:16:31,240 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 3: us today as part of our conversation. You actually found 331 00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 3: reasons to worry for both candidates, which I'd love to 332 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 3: hear about here. But the fact of the matter is 333 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:43,360 Speaker 3: Donald Trump. When you look at voters eighteen to twenty nine, 334 00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,200 Speaker 3: which I thought was the sweet spot for a Democrat, 335 00:16:46,680 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 3: Donald Trump is actually eating into Joe Biden's lead. 336 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 7: What did you learn, Well, yes, Joe, I think the 337 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 7: lesson from this survey for me is there's a significant 338 00:16:56,400 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 7: mood shift from the beginning to the end of this survey, seismic. 339 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 7: I think, you know, for example, there's a real concern 340 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 7: that young people have about the state of the nation. 341 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:08,439 Speaker 7: Only nine percent say it's on the right track. You know, 342 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 7: President Biden's approval ratings are not what he would like 343 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 7: them to be. Let's say it this way. There's concerns 344 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 7: about the economy, inflation, costs of living, of course, the 345 00:17:18,880 --> 00:17:24,440 Speaker 7: wars overseas. Despite that, Despite that, on a two person 346 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 7: race between Biden and Trump, when I look at the 347 00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 7: likeliest of likely voters, we see that Joe Biden has 348 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 7: a nineteen point lead, so that nineteen poll lead was 349 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 7: larger four years ago, So there is some degree of 350 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,480 Speaker 7: appealing away some of that lead. But we haven't seen 351 00:17:42,560 --> 00:17:45,399 Speaker 7: what a lot of other polls have been producing. We 352 00:17:45,480 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 7: haven't seen a wholesale shift from Democrats, Republicans, or from 353 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 7: Biden to Trump in this poll. 354 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 3: I just wonder if this is a conversation for you 355 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:57,920 Speaker 3: and I to have right now and for the campaign 356 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:01,959 Speaker 3: to sweat over, knowing that young people, assuming they show up, 357 00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,359 Speaker 3: are going to vote for Joe Biden because he is 358 00:18:04,400 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 3: aligned in many cases with their priorities. When he's talking 359 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 3: about forgiving student loan debt, when he's talking about bottom up, 360 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,119 Speaker 3: middle out housing initiatives, and so forth. 361 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 4: What happens in the. 362 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 3: Polls in November can frequently be a disconnected exercise. 363 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:27,639 Speaker 7: What do you think, Well, I think that's right. We 364 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:31,439 Speaker 7: need to be listening better in the polling. As I 365 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 7: just said it, right, his approval rating, his right track, 366 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:36,840 Speaker 7: wrong truck. You could look at those numbers in a vacuum, 367 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 7: Joe and say there's no way someone like that could 368 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 7: be reelected. Okay, but he is because, as you said, 369 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 7: it's about values. And I think as the campaign moves forward, 370 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 7: there will be kind of a direct comparison between life, 371 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 7: what life was like under Trump, what life was like 372 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,160 Speaker 7: under Biden, and what the future looks like. The good 373 00:18:56,200 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 7: news in this poll for all of us, in my opinion, 374 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,360 Speaker 7: is that there's been a significate shift of attitudes. Young 375 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 7: people can see the difference that engagement makes. They can 376 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:08,399 Speaker 7: they're more today than there were a couple years. I've 377 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 7: seeing the differences between the parties and are as likely 378 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:13,639 Speaker 7: to vote at this time as they were in twenty twenty, 379 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 7: And as we know, in twenty twenty there was record 380 00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,840 Speaker 7: turnout among younger people. So I'm cautious optimistic we'll see 381 00:19:20,040 --> 00:19:22,320 Speaker 7: significant turnout again in November. 382 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:26,000 Speaker 3: Well, that's remarkable and contrarian because I keep hearing that, 383 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 3: you know, young people are going to stay in betteror something. 384 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:33,560 Speaker 3: The cause for worry for Donald Trump. Here, John, as 385 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 3: he sits in the courtroom today, this could get a 386 00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,080 Speaker 3: lot worse if he's convicted. What did you learn about 387 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:39,920 Speaker 3: that in your research? 388 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:45,440 Speaker 7: That's right, So you know, and I've said for quite 389 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 7: some time that for Democrats to feel good about winning 390 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:51,520 Speaker 7: this electoral college, they need they should be around sixty 391 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 7: percent with younger people. The way that he gets there 392 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:57,159 Speaker 7: very the quickest route actually for Biden to get to 393 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 7: sixty percent in our poll is if Trump gets convicted 394 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 7: on any in one of these trials. There was roughly 395 00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 7: an eight to ten point swing based upon that information, 396 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,919 Speaker 7: so that could be a game changer. This isn't just 397 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:12,520 Speaker 7: about guilty or not guilty for Trump. This is about 398 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 7: president or not president for Trump. 399 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:20,400 Speaker 3: Fifty one percent support a permanent cease fire in Gaza. 400 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 3: Ten percent of pose at some point between now and November. 401 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,760 Speaker 3: I think most people agree this conflict in Gaza will end. 402 00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:33,120 Speaker 3: If Joe Biden can have his fingerprints on a ceasefire 403 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 3: or some sort of construct going forward that would invoke peace, 404 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,920 Speaker 3: does that help him immediately with these voters. 405 00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 7: Yeah, more than anything. More than anything, young people want peace. 406 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 7: They want peace and security, stability in their lives, and 407 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 7: for those people more vulnerable than even themselves around the world. 408 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:57,479 Speaker 7: This poll clearly shows that young people sympathize not just 409 00:20:57,520 --> 00:20:59,880 Speaker 7: with one side, but with both sides. With a sympathy 410 00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,720 Speaker 7: lies with the Palestinian people, and sympathy also lies with 411 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,639 Speaker 7: the Israeli people, not necessarily where their leaders or were 412 00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:10,959 Speaker 7: their governments. If Joe Biden can help architect an end 413 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 7: to this war, create a pathway to a state solution, 414 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:18,199 Speaker 7: that could be one of those moments again, Joe, right 415 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 7: when we're talking about going from the mid fifties to 416 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 7: sixty percent, that easily could do that. 417 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:26,119 Speaker 4: John, it's great to have you back. 418 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:27,520 Speaker 3: I'd love to stay in touch with you over the 419 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:31,440 Speaker 3: course of this campaign on your youth poll, but your 420 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 3: other research as well. Your insights are important to us. 421 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,760 Speaker 3: John Delavolfi, Harvard Kennedy School, Institute of Politics, Director of Polling. 422 00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 3: Great to see you here on Balance of Power. Want 423 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:44,119 Speaker 3: to hear some insights on the research here from Bloomberg 424 00:21:44,200 --> 00:21:48,080 Speaker 3: Politics contributor Rick Davis. Of course, no stranger to polling 425 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 3: and bringing us a slightly different view here as our 426 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:51,760 Speaker 3: Republican strategist. 427 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 4: Rick, how do you interpret the. 428 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,240 Speaker 3: Numbers here because it looks like there are causes for 429 00:21:56,320 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 3: concern on both sides. 430 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,120 Speaker 9: Yeah, there's no question that in this you know poll 431 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,520 Speaker 9: at Harvard, it shows what some of the other surveys, 432 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 9: including the Bloomberg survey of swing states, have shown, which is, 433 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 9: you know, byen underperforming his twenty twenty levels with young people, 434 00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 9: and you know, presso Volpi nailed it. He needs another 435 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,960 Speaker 9: ten percent to be able to build off of the 436 00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:27,879 Speaker 9: same winning coalition that he had before, and there are 437 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 9: ways in this survey. 438 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:29,440 Speaker 5: To do that. 439 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 9: Although I would say the sort of blinking yellow light 440 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 9: is on intensity, and this survey and others that I've 441 00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 9: seen indicate that there is just a you know, slightly 442 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 9: less intense vote, especially in certain demographics, and in this 443 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 9: case in the Harvard Pole may actually hurt Trump. He 444 00:22:51,720 --> 00:22:54,679 Speaker 9: is much more popular with those who say they're least 445 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:56,200 Speaker 9: likely to turn. 446 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:56,679 Speaker 4: Out to vote. 447 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,159 Speaker 9: But at the end of the day, Democrats have going 448 00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 9: to have their hands full to try and turn out 449 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,360 Speaker 9: the voters that are for Biden who might have issues 450 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 9: with any list of many things that they were talking about. 451 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:12,760 Speaker 9: I mean the student debt relief I thought was fascinating. 452 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 9: There are fewer people who think of Joe Biden as 453 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 9: being positive on debt relief. I think, like thirty three 454 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 9: percent in this poll, and then he had a higher 455 00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:26,400 Speaker 9: job approval than that, So like, people aren't giving him 456 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:30,920 Speaker 9: as high a positive on his job approval related to 457 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:35,320 Speaker 9: student debt as they are overall, which I was stunned by. 458 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:40,000 Speaker 3: Only nine percent trick of young Americans think that our 459 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 3: country is headed in the right direction. 460 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 4: Yeah. That's pretty terrible, isn't it? Out number? 461 00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,080 Speaker 9: Yeah? I agree, I mean about the normal fifty eight 462 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 9: percent in that poll indicated that they thought it was 463 00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 9: on the wrong track. But nine percent is less than 464 00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 9: half of that number from the same period of time 465 00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 9: in twenty and twenty twenty two. And so one of 466 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 9: the things that I think is a major theme of 467 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 9: this survey is how these young people, especially the eighteen 468 00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:15,200 Speaker 9: to twenty four year olds, think about their institutions of government. 469 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:21,119 Speaker 9: And it's less positive than it's ever been. And so 470 00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 9: I do think this is a more generic issue, less 471 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,720 Speaker 9: to do with the horse race of Biden versus Trump. 472 00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,439 Speaker 3: Yeah, honestly, I mentioned it for that very reason. I 473 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,600 Speaker 3: don't even know how that breaks. I suppose it doesn't 474 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,280 Speaker 3: health the incumbent. But to think that people eighteen to 475 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 3: twenty nine in this country think that overwhelmingly that we 476 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,160 Speaker 3: are going in the wrong direction really says a lot 477 00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 3: to us right now, Rick, and I wonder how much 478 00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:46,880 Speaker 3: it has to do with just the noise we talk 479 00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:50,679 Speaker 3: so much today every day on this program of about division, 480 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 3: about chaos or is it their their own lifestyle, their 481 00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:55,800 Speaker 3: feeling of security. 482 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:56,959 Speaker 4: What do you chalk it up to? 483 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,280 Speaker 9: You know, I think you got it. Also can consider 484 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:04,240 Speaker 9: the historical perspective. I mean, think about these people. They 485 00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 9: have come to age politically, you know, with massive economic dislocation, 486 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:15,520 Speaker 9: you know, global pandemics that such shut down governments and 487 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:20,120 Speaker 9: private sector for years at a time, education systems where 488 00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 9: they didn't attend their own graduations from college because of COVID. 489 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 9: I mean, like you think about their perspective, and and 490 00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:31,040 Speaker 9: they have to be wary, right, they have not gotten 491 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,639 Speaker 9: a particularly fair shake, you know, through their teenage years 492 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:39,439 Speaker 9: and now they're you know, in their voting age level, 493 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 9: and they have a lot of skepticism. They've been disappointed 494 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,480 Speaker 9: time and time again, probably more so than any generation 495 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 9: outside of the you know, World War two generation that 496 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 9: had to you know, deal with a world war and 497 00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 9: a depression all at the same time. This group is 498 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 9: not far off from that. 499 00:25:59,080 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 4: This is why I wanted to talk to Rick Davis 500 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,760 Speaker 4: about the poll. Thank you, Rick. 501 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,399 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. 502 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,479 Speaker 2: Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on EPO, car 503 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 2: Play and then Frounoto with the Bloomberg Business app, listen 504 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 2: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 505 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 2: live on YouTube. 506 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 10: Welcome back, or we're taking you live inside the happenings 507 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 10: in Washington on Bloomberg Television and Radio. Certainly, Joe, it 508 00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 10: has been a doozy of the last couple of days. 509 00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,199 Speaker 10: We've gone from not being sure whether or not Ukraine 510 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,360 Speaker 10: ad whatever reached the House floor to knowing that it's 511 00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 10: going to come in tandem with a B eight for 512 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:42,120 Speaker 10: Israel Taiwan and a so called sidecar bill that will 513 00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 10: include the TikTok divestit shirts, issue repo, frozen Russian assets, 514 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 10: also with Ron sanctions. All of this then going to 515 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:52,920 Speaker 10: get mashed together and sent over to the Senate. 516 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:54,240 Speaker 4: That was all off the top of her head. 517 00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:58,439 Speaker 3: That's very good, I think introducing more jargon sidecar Come on, stop, guys, 518 00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:01,240 Speaker 3: everyone's having a hard enough time. I'm following along with 519 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 3: Senator Tom Tillis who said I don't care how the 520 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:04,280 Speaker 3: sausage is made. 521 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,160 Speaker 4: Some people do care how it's made. 522 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,720 Speaker 3: And the Republican conference in the House included the Freedom 523 00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,360 Speaker 3: Caucus specifically not happy about this, and that's why it's 524 00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,280 Speaker 3: been jammed up in the rules making process. This is 525 00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 3: how it goes in Washington, where you want to talk 526 00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 3: about the sausage being made. We probably won't see an 527 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,880 Speaker 3: actual vote on the real bill until Saturday. Jonathan Tamari 528 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,399 Speaker 3: from Bloomberg Government joins us now after an attempt to 529 00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:31,520 Speaker 3: pass a rule on the so called sidecar failed last night. 530 00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:35,880 Speaker 3: Jonathan the line from the sorry not sorry statement from 531 00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 3: Chip Roy, Republican on the Rules committee. He said, sorry 532 00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 3: for opposing a crappy rule that is a show vote 533 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,120 Speaker 3: cover vote for funding Ukraine instead of border security. There 534 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,199 Speaker 3: was an attempt to fold the border into this. I 535 00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,280 Speaker 3: don't know if that's going to survive the process here, Jonathan, 536 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,080 Speaker 3: we don't know if there even will be a rule. 537 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 4: What can you tell us? 538 00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,679 Speaker 11: Yeah, it seems very unlikely at this moment at the 539 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 11: border policies are going to survive or are going to 540 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 11: be part of anything that can actually pass the House 541 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:08,600 Speaker 11: because this is going to require Democratic votes. They're strongly 542 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,760 Speaker 11: opposed to what Republicans want to do on the border. 543 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 11: And remember in their mind, the Democrats reached out and 544 00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,560 Speaker 11: made compromises back in February to do a deal that 545 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:21,680 Speaker 11: would include foreign aid and border security, and Speaker Johnson 546 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,920 Speaker 11: rejected that they're looking for a clean foreign aid bill 547 00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,360 Speaker 11: here with some of these sidecar provisions that you mentioned, 548 00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,879 Speaker 11: but nothing that goes as far as the border does. 549 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,080 Speaker 10: So obviously, those like Chip Roy are not all too 550 00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:38,200 Speaker 10: pleased with this. It's just a question of how many 551 00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,120 Speaker 10: are not pleased enough that they could potentially move to 552 00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 10: oust the speaker. Jonathan Joe and I were just talking 553 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,960 Speaker 10: about the idea that you may have Democrats coming to 554 00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,320 Speaker 10: save the day. But we also woke up this morning 555 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,760 Speaker 10: to murmurs around this idea that they may actually just 556 00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:55,080 Speaker 10: change the rules so that it's no longer one individual 557 00:28:55,120 --> 00:28:58,800 Speaker 10: member who can bring a motion to vacate. That seems though, 558 00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:01,360 Speaker 10: that it died a very very quick death right. 559 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:05,240 Speaker 11: It appears to be. There's been it's been very murky. 560 00:29:05,280 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 11: It's been back and forth all morning. But Speaker Johnson 561 00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,880 Speaker 11: was in a heated discussion with some of the more 562 00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,800 Speaker 11: far right members of his conference on the House floor 563 00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 11: this morning. They seem to think that the idea has 564 00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,600 Speaker 11: been dropped. Some of them said that listen, if you 565 00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 11: change the rules for the motion to vacate, it will 566 00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,400 Speaker 11: trigger a motion to vacate, So it's almost like a 567 00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 11: you know, heads, we win, tails, you lose situation. There. 568 00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,320 Speaker 11: It does seem like that's falling by the wayside. But 569 00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 11: as if you could tell from my discussions, your discussions, 570 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,160 Speaker 11: it's been a very fluid and fast moving situation and 571 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 11: it's still evolving right now. 572 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:42,560 Speaker 4: Well, it sure sounds like it if we cut to 573 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:43,080 Speaker 4: the chase. 574 00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 3: Though it's sometimes so hard to cut through the noise, Jonathan, 575 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,680 Speaker 3: you're very good at doing that. Our analysts on this 576 00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 3: broadcast have said that these bills, the three spending bills specifically, 577 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 3: could attract three hundred or more votes that they will pass. 578 00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 3: I know there are concerns about the way things get 579 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:03,600 Speaker 3: stick together in this Frankenstein strategy, but do you see 580 00:30:03,600 --> 00:30:06,120 Speaker 3: that being the case when we get to Saturday, we're 581 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,720 Speaker 3: going to talk about bills passing the House of Representatives. 582 00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:13,520 Speaker 11: I think, so, you know, it's sure these are issues 583 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 11: that have support from the vast majority of Democrats and 584 00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:21,680 Speaker 11: probably a significant majority of Republicans as well. It's only 585 00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 11: the process and the procedures that have allowed a small 586 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,360 Speaker 11: faction of Republicans to really jam up the works until now. 587 00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 11: And Speaker Johnson's own reluctance to actually go ahead and 588 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 11: put these things on the floor. But once the Speaker 589 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,320 Speaker 11: decides to put it up for a vote, there is 590 00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:39,120 Speaker 11: a significant majority in the House. I believe that we'll 591 00:30:39,120 --> 00:30:42,120 Speaker 11: support these things. There might be different coalitions. You might 592 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 11: see some people defect on Ukraine, more Republicans defect on Ukraine, 593 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:50,000 Speaker 11: some more Democrats defect on Israel. But I think taken together, 594 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 11: you'll see a significant majority of the House get this 595 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:53,880 Speaker 11: done by the end of the week. 596 00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 10: All right, going to be a working weekend in all likelihood. 597 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,239 Speaker 10: For Jonathan Tomari, who covers Congress, Bloomberg Government, thank you 598 00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 10: so much for working hard today as well in joining 599 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:05,840 Speaker 10: us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. And Joe like 600 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,240 Speaker 10: we've spoken into existence almost just by raising the question 601 00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:12,120 Speaker 10: of changing the rules on the motion to vacate. Congressman 602 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:16,280 Speaker 10: Dusty Johnson, a Republican, just posted a video on x 603 00:31:16,320 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 10: the platform formerly known as Twitter. Enough is enough, The 604 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 10: motion to vacate is a waste of time. We need 605 00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:23,680 Speaker 10: to change the rules. He says. He's working with a 606 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,640 Speaker 10: group to change those rules on the motion to boot 607 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,680 Speaker 10: out a speaker, So maybe the effort isn't all too dead. 608 00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:30,920 Speaker 10: It's just coming from outside the leadership ranks. 609 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:33,000 Speaker 3: Well, and of course that's chair of the main Street 610 00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:36,920 Speaker 3: Republican Caucus, right, so he's going to have that establishment 611 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,520 Speaker 3: view that might not be shared by folks like Marjorie 612 00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:41,720 Speaker 3: Taylor Green and Tom Massey and some others who were 613 00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:45,560 Speaker 3: the instigators here, but pretty remarkable. I think that we're 614 00:31:45,800 --> 00:31:48,200 Speaker 3: our mission today is to cut through the drama because 615 00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,520 Speaker 3: there's a lot. We could write tabloids all day to day. 616 00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:53,520 Speaker 3: We could tmz this thing for the rest of the afternoon, 617 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 3: but there does seem to be a prize at the 618 00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:59,640 Speaker 3: end of the road here come Saturday, whether you're talking 619 00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 3: about allies in Ukraine or in Israel, Kyley, Which is 620 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,080 Speaker 3: why this next conversation is so important. 621 00:32:06,200 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 10: Yeah, against the domestic political backdrop is a very real 622 00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,760 Speaker 10: and potentially dangerous geopolitical one. Is there a hot conflicts 623 00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:14,640 Speaker 10: all around the world, on the continent of Europe and 624 00:32:14,680 --> 00:32:16,320 Speaker 10: of course in the Middle East. And that is where 625 00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,880 Speaker 10: we begin our conversation now with retired General Ken mackenzie. 626 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 10: He is executive director of the University of South Florida's 627 00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:26,520 Speaker 10: Global and National Security Institute, but also former US Central 628 00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 10: Command Commander General, thank you so much for joining us 629 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:33,480 Speaker 10: here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. You recently penned an 630 00:32:33,520 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 10: op ed in the Wall Street Journal about how you 631 00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 10: viewed the attack we saw last weekend, Aron sending hundreds 632 00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,200 Speaker 10: of drones and missiles in Israel's direction. You say that 633 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:46,160 Speaker 10: was a show of weakness. What does Israel need to 634 00:32:46,240 --> 00:32:49,440 Speaker 10: do to not show weakness in return in its response 635 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 10: that is still calibrated to not escalate this conflict any further. 636 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:56,720 Speaker 12: Well, first of all, thanks for having me on today. 637 00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,880 Speaker 12: I believe that one of the hardest things you can 638 00:32:59,920 --> 00:33:04,400 Speaker 12: do is translate an operational victory into strategic success, and 639 00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:07,160 Speaker 12: that's the challenge ahead of Israel. Look, Iran is weakened 640 00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:09,280 Speaker 12: in every way by this attack. They're more cut off 641 00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:12,080 Speaker 12: from people in the region, more cut off internationally, and 642 00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,960 Speaker 12: they have reason to now look at their own offensive 643 00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,720 Speaker 12: capabilities with some concern. So they face their own set 644 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:20,960 Speaker 12: of problems. Israel's set of problems, though, is really not 645 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:23,720 Speaker 12: so much the technical military aspect of it, which worked 646 00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 12: quite well over the weekend, but rather how to maintain 647 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:30,520 Speaker 12: this alliance structure, this collective security approach that was so 648 00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:33,760 Speaker 12: profitable for them and they need to do that while 649 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 12: still considering whether they or not they're going to strike 650 00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,040 Speaker 12: back at Iran. And I think that's the big question. 651 00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,720 Speaker 12: How where in the scope of that potential attack. That's 652 00:33:41,720 --> 00:33:43,920 Speaker 12: the big question that lies ahead of Israel right now, 653 00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:46,320 Speaker 12: and they need to think strategically as they come to 654 00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 12: a conclusion. 655 00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:49,920 Speaker 4: Where the US support comes into play. 656 00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 3: General is what I'd love to hear you speak to 657 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:55,480 Speaker 3: We're talking about sixty billion dollars plus being invested in 658 00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:59,880 Speaker 3: hardware for Ukraine. We know that Ukraine has ammunition shortages. 659 00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 3: You know that every shell at this point matters. Israel 660 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:05,880 Speaker 3: is in a very different situation. What does it need 661 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,359 Speaker 3: that this fourteen billion dollars can buy? 662 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:11,000 Speaker 12: Well, I think the main thing Israel is going to 663 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:14,799 Speaker 12: need is continued supply of interceptors, all the systems, the 664 00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 12: defensive systems that we saw employed over the weekend, because 665 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 12: I'll tell you we fired a lot of air to 666 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:24,279 Speaker 12: air missiles shooting down those drones, and we and our 667 00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:26,840 Speaker 12: partners fired a lot of surface to air missiles and 668 00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:31,240 Speaker 12: anti ballistic missiles bringing down those other platforms that were inbound. 669 00:34:31,400 --> 00:34:34,200 Speaker 12: So they're going to need constant replenishment of that you know, 670 00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 12: the good side of the weekend's attack is we successfully 671 00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,279 Speaker 12: defended Israel. The bad side is, frankly, you're on the 672 00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:43,040 Speaker 12: wrong side of the cost and position curve. It's easier 673 00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,760 Speaker 12: to build the drones, missiles and land attack cruise missiles 674 00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,439 Speaker 12: than cheaper, I should say, than it is to build 675 00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:50,799 Speaker 12: the systems that are the Israel So you're on the 676 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:52,360 Speaker 12: wrong side of that, but we're going to need to 677 00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:53,600 Speaker 12: continue it into the future. 678 00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:57,600 Speaker 10: I think, well, okay, so you're saying basically that what 679 00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,920 Speaker 10: all Iron needs to do is do the cheaper thing 680 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,920 Speaker 10: were is. It's much more costly for Israel to do 681 00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:05,719 Speaker 10: what they need to do defensively. So I guess it 682 00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:09,200 Speaker 10: raises the wider question general of how we may need 683 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:14,200 Speaker 10: to rethink what it is that deters Iran. Is Iran 684 00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,920 Speaker 10: likely to change its behavior as a result of this 685 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,239 Speaker 10: attack that sure they called successful, but as we know, 686 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,600 Speaker 10: largely was not, as most of this incoming missile and 687 00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:28,280 Speaker 10: drone to Israel was intercepted, as you've been talking about. 688 00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 10: So is Iran likely to be more dangerous now or 689 00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:33,279 Speaker 10: less dangerous now? I guess is the question? And then 690 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,360 Speaker 10: how do you deter that level of danger? 691 00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:36,640 Speaker 6: Sure. 692 00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:38,319 Speaker 12: So let me back up a step and say why 693 00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:40,800 Speaker 12: did I Ran launch this attack. They launched this attack 694 00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:44,960 Speaker 12: because over the past many months they've been consistently out 695 00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:47,960 Speaker 12: fought by Israel in this shadow war, this dialogue of 696 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,080 Speaker 12: targets that's gone on, culminating in the one April attack 697 00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:55,520 Speaker 12: on Iranian leaders in Damascus. So I think what Iran felt, 698 00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:57,480 Speaker 12: they were in a corner. They were on the wrong 699 00:35:57,560 --> 00:35:59,799 Speaker 12: side of this equation. And so what they try to 700 00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:02,160 Speaker 12: do take a page out of the Russian playbook what 701 00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:06,560 Speaker 12: we call escalate to de escalate, do something profoundly aggressive 702 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,960 Speaker 12: that makes your opponents rock back on their heels and 703 00:36:10,040 --> 00:36:12,799 Speaker 12: realize that maybe the game getting too rich for them. 704 00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:15,920 Speaker 12: Here's the problem, though, Russia uses this because Russia has 705 00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:20,440 Speaker 12: vast resources, including nuclear capabilities. Iran tried it, but their 706 00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,759 Speaker 12: attempt was found to be hollow. It was unsuccessful. So 707 00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:28,319 Speaker 12: Iran is in a markedly weaker strategic position today than 708 00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:32,200 Speaker 12: they were last week. Because at the bottom line, the 709 00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:35,719 Speaker 12: most important priority for Iran is preservation of the theocratic 710 00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:38,759 Speaker 12: regime that runs the country, and they have viewed their 711 00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:42,359 Speaker 12: ballistic missiles, drones and land attack cruise missiles as the 712 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,920 Speaker 12: principal thing that deters others from attacking them. So that 713 00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:50,640 Speaker 12: capability now been tested and it has failed. So Iran's 714 00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:54,560 Speaker 12: in a very difficult position. Even as Israel phases difficult choices, 715 00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:58,120 Speaker 12: the harder choices are Iran's because something they viewed as 716 00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,000 Speaker 12: very powerful has been exposed. 717 00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:04,520 Speaker 3: General, we'd like to ask you about a couple of 718 00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 3: things beyond Israel, including your time as commander of US 719 00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:11,400 Speaker 3: Central Command, in which you helped to oversee the withdrawal 720 00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:15,600 Speaker 3: from Afghanistan. You testified recently on Capitol Hill about this. 721 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,440 Speaker 3: I would love for our viewers and listeners to get 722 00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,040 Speaker 3: a sense of what you said, and we'll have you 723 00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,239 Speaker 3: respond on the other side. Let's go back to that 724 00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:24,480 Speaker 3: hearing on Capitol Hill. 725 00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:25,160 Speaker 4: Here's the General. 726 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:27,080 Speaker 1: Having a plan is one thing. 727 00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:29,960 Speaker 12: Preparing the plan, vetting the plan, coordinating the plan with 728 00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:32,200 Speaker 12: the people that are going to actually carry you out 729 00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:35,480 Speaker 12: the Department of Defense, that's another set of tasks completely. 730 00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,239 Speaker 4: And that was too little, too late. 731 00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,919 Speaker 12: Was my judgment that it was far too little, far 732 00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:41,439 Speaker 12: too late. 733 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:46,160 Speaker 3: Speaking with Chairman McCall there just a couple of weeks 734 00:37:46,200 --> 00:37:49,280 Speaker 3: ago on Capitol Hill. General, I'm bringing this up because 735 00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:51,439 Speaker 3: this is going to be an issue on the campaign trail, 736 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:54,200 Speaker 3: something that we're covering very closely here as we enter 737 00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:57,480 Speaker 3: the general election cycle. And I wonder if you agree 738 00:37:57,760 --> 00:37:59,960 Speaker 3: that Joe Biden should be judged by this. 739 00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:03,839 Speaker 12: Well, the presidence of the Commander in chief, he makes 740 00:38:04,040 --> 00:38:07,040 Speaker 12: ultimate decisions for the military of the United States. He 741 00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:10,360 Speaker 12: made the ultimate decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, and that 742 00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:14,160 Speaker 12: decision was executed by US. I believe that part of 743 00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,080 Speaker 12: the decision called for trying to keep an embassy platform 744 00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,440 Speaker 12: en Kabo after we've withdrawn our military forces, and we 745 00:38:21,520 --> 00:38:24,799 Speaker 12: also chose not to bring out our citizens and at 746 00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:28,520 Speaker 12: risk Afghans as we pulled our military forces out. So 747 00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:31,040 Speaker 12: you get to the middle of August, we predicted the 748 00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:34,120 Speaker 12: government of Afghanistan's falling. You've got the embassy at risk, 749 00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:35,960 Speaker 12: you've got our citizens at risk, and you've got these 750 00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:39,120 Speaker 12: tens of thousands of Afghans that you want to bring out. Unfortunately, 751 00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:41,600 Speaker 12: you're not positioned to do that, so you have to react. 752 00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,320 Speaker 12: You have to go back in, establish a very tenuous 753 00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:50,239 Speaker 12: but ultimately effective defense of Harmed Karzi International Airfield and 754 00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,560 Speaker 12: get people out. And that was a difficult, dangerous operation 755 00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,399 Speaker 12: and it involved that large element of tragedy. Thirteen brave 756 00:38:56,440 --> 00:39:00,759 Speaker 12: Americans died trying to conduct that operation. That weighs very 757 00:39:00,760 --> 00:39:03,560 Speaker 12: heavily on me, and it will weigh heavily on me 758 00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:04,439 Speaker 12: for the rest of my life. 759 00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,200 Speaker 3: Well, I understand that, General, and I appreciate your sharing 760 00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:10,719 Speaker 3: that did you give the president advice that he did 761 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:11,200 Speaker 3: not take? 762 00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:15,399 Speaker 12: So, as you know, we prefer not to actually talk 763 00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:17,919 Speaker 12: directly about that. I think my opinion at the time 764 00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:23,680 Speaker 12: was leaving completely was a mistake. Uh And I've been 765 00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,320 Speaker 12: pretty open about that ever since my views were heard. 766 00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:29,759 Speaker 12: Present made a decision, and he is actually decision maker. 767 00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,279 Speaker 12: He gets to make that call, and my opinion then 768 00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:35,520 Speaker 12: my opinion now remains the same. We would have been 769 00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:39,920 Speaker 12: wiser to keep a small residual force in Afghanistan. Uh 770 00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:41,080 Speaker 12: and I stand by that. 771 00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:45,279 Speaker 10: Today, General, we just have a minute left with you. 772 00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:47,759 Speaker 10: But Mitch McConnell said on the Senate floor today that 773 00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,319 Speaker 10: the political reality is, if you think the fall off 774 00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:53,920 Speaker 10: Afghanistan was bad, the fall of a European capital city 775 00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,960 Speaker 10: like Kiev to Russian troops will be unimaginably worse. And 776 00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,680 Speaker 10: I wonder if you agree with that characterization, Sir, Given 777 00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:02,719 Speaker 10: what you've already seen. 778 00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:06,640 Speaker 12: Well. My position would be that I think the fall 779 00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:10,279 Speaker 12: of Kiev would be disastrous for NATO, It would be 780 00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:14,120 Speaker 12: disastrous for our credibility and the credibility of the North 781 00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:18,759 Speaker 12: Atlantic Treaty organization, and it would probably prompt further aggressive 782 00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:19,959 Speaker 12: moves from Vladimir put. 783 00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:22,359 Speaker 4: General, we thank you for the time. We would love 784 00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:23,040 Speaker 4: to have you back. 785 00:40:23,880 --> 00:40:27,200 Speaker 3: Retired General Ken McKenzie, retired four star, also former commander 786 00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:31,040 Speaker 3: US Central Command. We also want to note his forthcoming book, 787 00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:35,640 Speaker 3: The Melting Point, High Command and War in the twenty 788 00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:36,360 Speaker 3: first Century. 789 00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,680 Speaker 4: Congratulations on the book. General, come and talk to us 790 00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:40,359 Speaker 4: again on Balancing Power. 791 00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:45,440 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 792 00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:48,440 Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 793 00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:51,120 Speaker 3: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 794 00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,400 Speaker 3: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 795 00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:56,120 Speaker 3: at Bloomberg dot com.