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Speaker 1: welcome to HOOPSINAI here at the volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody hopeful,
Speaker 1: if you guys are having an incredible week. Just quick
Speaker 1: show for you guys today, We're just doing a deep
Speaker 1: dive series preview on the Pacers versus the Bucks.
Speaker 2: I also have.
Speaker 1: Seventeen clips for a little film session surrounding this matchup
Speaker 1: at the tail end of the show. You guys are
Speaker 1: the Joe for we Get Startist. Subscribe to our brand
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Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at underscore JSNLT so you guys
Speaker 1: don't miss show announcements as well as the film threads
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Speaker 1: Don't forget about a podcast feed wherever you get your
Speaker 1: podcast under Hoops Tonight. It's also super helpful if you
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Speaker 1: last but not least, keepdropping mail back questions in the
Speaker 1: YouTube comments. We're gonna hit some mailbags later on this week.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So, as I've mentioned before,
Speaker 1: as we kind of incorporate this film session kind of format.
Speaker 1: The way that I want to do this for our
Speaker 1: podcast audience is I want to do all of the
Speaker 1: audio stuff first and just kind of talk through the series.
Speaker 1: Then we'll look at the film at the tail end.
Speaker 1: So you guys listening on the podcast feed, if you
Speaker 1: guys want to see some visual examples of the concepts
Speaker 1: that I'm talking about, just make your way over to YouTube.
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into it.
Speaker 1: So Pacers won the season series four to one a
Speaker 1: fifth game there as a result of the season tournament
Speaker 1: semi final. Basically, the Pacers won the first two games,
Speaker 1: then after the n season tournament, they went to Milwaukee
Speaker 1: and got shredded by Milwaukee's offense and lost the game.
Speaker 1: But shortly after that, about a month later, the Pacers
Speaker 1: beat the Bucks in a home and home, meaning they
Speaker 1: went into Milwaukee and beat the Bucks and then came
Speaker 1: home the Bucks trying to avoid getting embarrassed and losing
Speaker 1: the season series four to one, going to Indiana and
Speaker 1: lose again. It's just a really really bad matchup for Milwaukee.
Speaker 1: In terms of the gap in foot speed, We're going
Speaker 1: to dig into it, but in terms of the season series,
Speaker 1: not a good showing for the Milwaukee Bucks. All the
Speaker 1: games were before the trade deadline, so the teams are
Speaker 1: a little bit different. Obviously, Milwaukee operating with Patrick Beverley
Speaker 1: is kind of their new backcourt defensive option. He's actually
Speaker 1: started a couple games down the stretch. Maleak Beasley over
Speaker 1: his last forty one games of the season is shooting
Speaker 1: below thirty six percent from three, so with him just
Speaker 1: not being the same level of defender and him not
Speaker 1: shooting as well as it typically does there, I think
Speaker 1: two times over the final four games, Doc Rivers went
Speaker 1: with Patrick Beverly as basically an alternative there. Patrick Beverly
Speaker 1: is a really good guard defender, but not a great,
Speaker 1: you know, bigger wing defender, and so honestly, I think
Speaker 1: he kind of fits that role nicely the job that
Speaker 1: Malik Beasley was doing. He comes with his own offensive limitations. Obviously,
Speaker 1: he's a little bit of a ball stopper. He's he's
Speaker 1: your textbook like catch pump, fake jab step guy, where
Speaker 1: like the ball just kind of sticks in his hands
Speaker 1: a little bit, and so there's some offensive limitations there.
Speaker 1: But that's a different configuration that Milwaukee can go to
Speaker 1: that they did not have in the Indiana or the
Speaker 1: Indiana season series. And Patrick Beverley actually has had some
Speaker 1: success against Tyrese Halliburton individually in that matchup over the
Speaker 1: course of his career famously, you know, obviously covering the
Speaker 1: Lakers pretty closely last year.
Speaker 2: Last year with the Lakers, he had a big.
Speaker 1: Night in Indiana where he was able to do a
Speaker 1: good job against Tyrese Haliburton down the stretch. Now context
Speaker 1: there obviously Anthony Davis on the back end and Tyres
Speaker 1: Aliburton's not the same level player in season as he
Speaker 1: is in this particular season, but different configuration they're obviously
Speaker 1: in Indiana, they're not as good at guard without Bruce Brown,
Speaker 1: but they're much better at forward with Pascal Siakam, and
Speaker 1: they have a legitimate secondary shot creator, different element to
Speaker 1: their offense that they can go to. Also, the units
Speaker 1: that have Pascal Siakam with Miles Turner and Aaron Nesmith
Speaker 1: and Andrew Empard have been pretty good defensively, so they
Speaker 1: have a different look that they can get to in
Speaker 1: terms of perimeter athleticism, including the front court that they
Speaker 1: didn't have early in the season. So both teams are
Speaker 1: a little bit different. But I'm gonna give you the
Speaker 1: information that I have from the season series. The Pacers
Speaker 1: have a one to twenty two offensive rating in this matchup.
Speaker 1: They have consistently shredded the Bucks defense. Bucks have done
Speaker 1: well offensively as well, a one eighteen offensive rating, just
Speaker 1: not nearly as well. The Pacers have won the rebounding
Speaker 1: battles slightly, although both teams have struggled a bit to
Speaker 1: clean up the defensive glass. I was surprised by this part.
Speaker 1: The gambling odds on DraftKings, the Bucks are a minus
Speaker 1: one thirty five favorite. We had a Yannis report. Weind
Speaker 1: of had a feeling coming into this series that Yannis
Speaker 1: was going to miss some time. Wojes reported this morning.
Speaker 1: Adrian Warzonowski from ESPN reported this morning that the Bucks
Speaker 1: are preparing to be without Yannis for the start of
Speaker 1: the series, but that they're hopefully having him back later
Speaker 1: in the series. Big advantage for the Pacers on two levels.
Speaker 1: One obviously no Yannis, but two early in the series
Speaker 1: the Bucks have more home games. Think of it like this.
Speaker 1: Once you get through the first two games, three of
Speaker 1: the last five are in Indiana, and so if they
Speaker 1: split one one, you just have to win your home games.
Speaker 1: If you're Indiana, you win the series. If you go
Speaker 1: up to Oho in Milwaukee, even if Jannis comes back,
Speaker 1: you just have to go two and three over the
Speaker 1: final five games, with three of those games being at home,
Speaker 1: and so a lot stacked against Milwaukee in this series.
Speaker 1: Just on the surface, before we even get into some
Speaker 1: of the some of the matchup stuff, a couple of
Speaker 1: things with the Bucks without Yanis. I wanted to share
Speaker 1: some lineup data with you just so you guys can
Speaker 1: get a feel for what the Bucks have been like
Speaker 1: this year when Jannis has been off the floor. I'm
Speaker 1: want to look at this from four different lineup groupings.
Speaker 1: First of all, just giant aggregate sample of Jannis off
Speaker 1: the floor twenty six and four possessions according to Cleaning
Speaker 1: the Glass. With Jannis off the floor, again, cleaning the
Speaker 1: glass filters out garbage time, but they have a minus
Speaker 1: five point six net rating, meaning they get outscored by
Speaker 1: five point six points per one hundred possessions. And they've
Speaker 1: been bad on both ends of the floor. Now, what
Speaker 1: if we look at the three best players for the
Speaker 1: Bucks with Janis off the floor, so Damian Lillard on
Speaker 1: Chris Middleton on Brook Lopez on Jannis off three hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty one possessions, a minus twenty point eight net rating,
Speaker 1: atrocious on both ends of the floor. Then we look
Speaker 1: at their new starting lineup, so the starting line they
Speaker 1: use for the most part after the the the Jiannis injury,
Speaker 1: not counting obviously the configurations with Patrick Beverley, they have
Speaker 1: Dame Malik Beasley, Chris Middleton, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez
Speaker 1: ninety eight possessions, minus eight point two rating atrocious on
Speaker 1: offense and bad on defense. They've been much better with
Speaker 1: Patrick Beverley on the floor in that grouping. Here's the
Speaker 1: biggest silver lining. If you just look at the big
Speaker 1: front court, So Bobby Portis at the four, Lopez at
Speaker 1: the five, with Giannis off the floor. Substantial sample size
Speaker 1: three and eighty four possessions, they are plus one in
Speaker 1: net rating, meaning they're outscoring teams by one point per
Speaker 1: one hundred posessions in a massive sample size. Mediocre on offense,
Speaker 1: but pretty good on the defensive end of the floor. Again,
Speaker 1: Bobby Portis, when he's in that backup center spot and
Speaker 1: he's constantly defending ball screens, doesn't look pretty good. It
Speaker 1: doesn't look very good defensively, right, But like if you
Speaker 1: get Lopez into ball screens and allow Portas to be
Speaker 1: the low man, or if you allow Portis to come
Speaker 1: up to the level and hedge or high drop while
Speaker 1: having Brooke Lopez on the back line, things have looked
Speaker 1: better defensively. And so I think that's the configuration we're
Speaker 1: going to see for the most part with Giannis off
Speaker 1: the floor in this series, depending on how long he's
Speaker 1: going to be out. So translation, not a lot of good,
Speaker 1: a lot of really bad data with Giannis off the floor.
Speaker 1: But your ray of sunlight you're a little bit of
Speaker 1: like kind of like optimism to cling to is that
Speaker 1: you've been positive this year with Bobby Portis and Brook
Speaker 1: Lopez on the floor together give yourself a better chance
Speaker 1: to defend the rim. The Pacers in particular, are the
Speaker 1: best paint attacking team in the league. They scored the
Speaker 1: fourth most points in transition this year, and they've scored
Speaker 1: the most points on the role in ball screens this year.
Speaker 1: That's a big part of what allowed them to be
Speaker 1: the best points in the paint team in the league
Speaker 1: this year. So let's start with the Pacers on the
Speaker 1: offensive end of the floor. What I expect from matchups.
Speaker 1: I think we'll see either Malik Beasley or Patrick Beverley
Speaker 1: on Tyrese Haliburton. That goes without saying again, we're going
Speaker 1: to talk about the difference between Patrick Beverly and Malik
Speaker 1: Beasley here in a minute. In terms of options, Damian
Speaker 1: Lillard will most likely guard Andrew Nemhard. Now, the next
Speaker 1: question is like, do you put Bobby Portis on Pascal
Speaker 1: Siakam or do you put Chris Middleton on Pascal Siakam.
Speaker 1: That's gonna be the challenge, right and honestly, you can
Speaker 1: go either way. Here's here's where I have a kind
Speaker 1: of my own little personal kind of basketball belief. I
Speaker 1: want to keep Portis in lowman situations as much as
Speaker 1: possible because he's not as fast, but he has good size. Right,
Speaker 1: I want to keep Middleton defending on the perimeter as
Speaker 1: much as possible. So if you put Middleton on Siakam,
Speaker 1: is he gonna be able to slide his feet better?
Speaker 2: Sure?
Speaker 1: Is he gonna be able to deal with some of
Speaker 1: Pascal Siakam's athleticism traits better?
Speaker 2: Sure?
Speaker 1: But do I want Bobby Portis trying to close out
Speaker 1: on Aaron E. Smith on the perimeter and not be
Speaker 1: in a low man situation as often? No? I think
Speaker 1: that limits or brings out the worst and what Bobby
Speaker 1: Portis brings to the table. So I personally would put
Speaker 1: Bobby Portis on Pascal Siakam gives him more lowman type
Speaker 1: of possessions. And again, what I mean there by lowman
Speaker 1: possessions is he's defending a guy that he's not as
Speaker 1: worried about as a shooter, so he can tag rollers
Speaker 1: and help be behind brook Lopez when brook Lopez has
Speaker 1: to show on a ball handler or leave his feet
Speaker 1: on a shot block at tempt. He can help kind
Speaker 1: of clean up the backside. I want him around the
Speaker 1: basket as much as possible. If I had him on
Speaker 1: aaron Nie Smith, who's shooting over forty percent from three
Speaker 1: this year and has been an excellent closeout attacker with
Speaker 1: really good slashing speed. Now he's closing out to the
Speaker 1: perimeter more not going to be able to help at
Speaker 1: the rim is more so, the I also think, like
Speaker 1: with a Pascal Siakam's kind of bully ball attack, Portis
Speaker 1: will be able to hold up under that reasonably well
Speaker 1: by conceding the jump shot and just trying to beat
Speaker 1: him to spots by backpedaling right. Chris Middleton. If you
Speaker 1: put Middleton on Siakam, I think Siakam has a better
Speaker 1: chance to kind of play bully ball against him. Middleton
Speaker 1: closing out and trying to contain aaron Nie Smith and
Speaker 1: close out situations. I kind of like that matchup now, right,
Speaker 1: So here's the counterpoint. What if the Pacers just go
Speaker 1: to Siakam Haliburton ball screens to try to attack Bobby Portis.
Speaker 1: I get that, and I understand the concern, and they
Speaker 1: probably have some success there. But the alternative is you
Speaker 1: have Chris Middleton in that action and you switch it right,
Speaker 1: so Middleton on Siakam and you have and you have
Speaker 1: your primary point of attack defender, whether it's Malik Beasley
Speaker 1: or Patrick Beverley on Tyrese Saliburton. Right, But if you
Speaker 1: switch it and you put Chris Middleton onto Tyrese Aliburn,
Speaker 1: now you got Moligue Beasley or Patrick Beverley trying to
Speaker 1: guard Chris Middleton and or excuse me, trying to guard
Speaker 1: Pascal Siakam. And like as I mentioned earlier, I like
Speaker 1: Patrick Beverley defending guards, but I don't particularly like him
Speaker 1: defending forwards. I know he has a bit of a
Speaker 1: reputation for that, but just as someone who was rooting
Speaker 1: for the Lakers last year, I watched him guard a
Speaker 1: lot of forwards and for the most part, it didn't
Speaker 1: go well. And he had to guard a lot of
Speaker 1: fords because the Lakers didn't have any forwards at that
Speaker 1: point in the season, so it was kind of a
Speaker 1: thing that he had to do a lot. And so
Speaker 1: in my opinion, the best way to handle that is
Speaker 1: to keep portis on Seacam. Don't switch those ball screens,
Speaker 1: just run a high drop. So essentially, imagine Tyree Sliburton
Speaker 1: has the ball, he calls Siakam into the ball screen
Speaker 1: to try to attack Bobby Portis, you bring Bobby Portis
Speaker 1: up to the level of the screen, and you have
Speaker 1: Brook Lopez basically ignore Miles Turner to handle whatever happens
Speaker 1: in the paint. This is gonna be one of the
Speaker 1: biggest kind of like themes of the series, the Brook
Speaker 1: Lopez Miles Turner kind of like battle because both of
Speaker 1: those guys are centers that can shoot threes, but that
Speaker 1: don't hit enough of them to really truly be dangerous.
Speaker 1: And so I think both teams are going to basically
Speaker 1: concede catch and shoot threes on pops and spot up
Speaker 1: situations to both of those guys, right. Brooke Miles Turner,
Speaker 1: for instance, he's below thirty six percent from three and
Speaker 1: below a point per possession on spot up possessions overall,
Speaker 1: So yeah, he can make them, but from a game
Speaker 1: plan standpoint, you almost have to ignore him to give
Speaker 1: yourself a chance to slow down Indiana. And so basically
Speaker 1: what I expect is on your Turner ball screens on SIAKAM,
Speaker 1: I think you'll see Lopez in a deep drop coverage, right,
Speaker 1: and you'll just be chasing over the top. And we'll
Speaker 1: talk about that specific a dynamic and a mini because
Speaker 1: they're gonna have to do a better job than they
Speaker 1: did in the regular season. But then when they run
Speaker 1: any ball screens with Siakam to try to bring Bobby
Speaker 1: Portis into the action, I expect him to bring Portis
Speaker 1: way out high and then have Lopez ignore Turner to
Speaker 1: sit in the paint and try to clean up anything
Speaker 1: rolling to the basket. Now, if Siakam pops, he's going
Speaker 1: to be open. But all Bobby Portis has to do
Speaker 1: is chase him off the line and funnel him into
Speaker 1: Brook Lopez and it close out after the fact. Right,
Speaker 1: And Siakam hasn't shot the three. He shot the three
Speaker 1: better since going to Indiana, but he still isn't the
Speaker 1: kind of guy that you're super, super worried about.
Speaker 2: Lighting you up from the three point line.
Speaker 1: So the main problem that I have with this particular
Speaker 1: matchup for for Milwaukee is they just don't really do
Speaker 1: a good job of making Tyrese Haliburton feel uncomfortable. Malik
Speaker 1: Beasley has had little to no success just even making
Speaker 1: applying even back pressure making him feel even remotely uncomfortable.
Speaker 1: He can get him set up. Tyree's can get him
Speaker 1: set up on the wrong side his screens and just
Speaker 1: easily get into easy fifteen footers and floaters and so on.
Speaker 1: And so he picks on Dame like crazy with guard
Speaker 1: guard screens to get Dame switched on to him, and
Speaker 1: then he'll bring Dame into the ball screen. It's been
Speaker 1: a problem, and I'll show you guys some examples on
Speaker 1: film when we get there. But the Bucks have had
Speaker 1: a nightmare time handling Tyrese Haliburton in ball screen. So
Speaker 1: that makes me wonder if this is gonna end up
Speaker 1: being more of kind of like a Patrick Beverly type
Speaker 1: of series. Obviously, as I mentioned, they started him twice
Speaker 1: there down the stretch of the year, including in that
Speaker 1: must win game against Orlando, And not only that, Orlando's
Speaker 1: not really a team that initiates from the guard position
Speaker 1: that much, and so I think that's a pretty strong
Speaker 1: indicator of where Doc Rivers is leaning with the starting
Speaker 1: group heading into the postseason. Like, they didn't even have
Speaker 1: to guard a Tyres in that must win game and
Speaker 1: they went with Patrick Beverley.
Speaker 2: And as I mentioned.
Speaker 1: Earlier, Malik Beasley just thirty six percent from three over
Speaker 1: the final half of the season. It's a forty one
Speaker 1: game sample size, so it just kind of turned into
Speaker 1: an option there where Pat made some sense. So if
Speaker 1: I was Milwaukee, I would just start Patrick Beverley and
Speaker 1: from there I would lean on that deep drop coverage
Speaker 1: because again, that heep dropped coverage. Brook Lopez is going
Speaker 1: to be back towards the rim. But they were getting
Speaker 1: killed because they were not doing a good enough job
Speaker 1: on Tyres Halliburton right on the ball, and you'll see
Speaker 1: in the video examples it's really bad. So if we
Speaker 1: kind of take this dynamic and I go from Malik
Speaker 1: Beasley to a much better perimeter defender in Patrick Beverley,
Speaker 1: and we look at the fact that Tyres Haliburton is
Speaker 1: just not the same guy that he was before his
Speaker 1: hamstring injury. He's down a level that might give you
Speaker 1: a better chance of holding up in that coverage. Just
Speaker 1: to give you guys a little bit of a perspective.
Speaker 1: Before his hamstring injury, Tyres Haliburton averaged twenty four points
Speaker 1: and thirteen assists per game on fifty percent from the
Speaker 1: field and forty percent from three. After his hamstring injury,
Speaker 1: seventeen points per game a nine assists, forty six percent
Speaker 1: from the field and thirty two percent from three, just
Speaker 1: hasn't been the same guy, even if we zoom in
Speaker 1: at the end of the season the kind of run
Speaker 1: that he's currently on last ten games, nineteen points and
Speaker 1: nine assists, forty seven percent from the field and thirty
Speaker 1: eight percent from three, So starting to get a little
Speaker 1: bit better, but still not the old Tyrese Halliburton that
Speaker 1: we've kind of that we kind of grew accustomed to
Speaker 1: early in the season. And so that's a big swing
Speaker 1: factor in the series. It's probably the second biggest swing
Speaker 1: factor behind when is Giannis gonna return? Is is tyres
Speaker 1: Halliburton gonna be the Tyresse Halliburton that we know? But again,
Speaker 1: if Patrick Beverly starts the series or plays big minutes
Speaker 1: in the series and does a much better job in
Speaker 1: their drop coverage of applying back pressure, that can kind
Speaker 1: of make that coverage hold up better. Especially if Tyrese
Speaker 1: Haliburton is not the same level player that he was
Speaker 1: earlier in the series, that could literally be Milwaukee's best
Speaker 1: pathway to victory keys for both teams. When Indiana has
Speaker 1: the ball, Haliburton has to be able to score again.
Speaker 1: That's that's that's gonna be the thing that he did
Speaker 1: early in the season that he hasn't been able to
Speaker 1: do as well here down the stretch. Has to be
Speaker 1: able to score the basketball. That's the only thing that's
Speaker 1: gonna punish that Bucks drop coverage, Siakam inverted ball screens.
Speaker 1: This is again it's gonna be really important to try
Speaker 1: to find a way to get Pascalci downhill, especially when
Speaker 1: you're gonna have Bobby Portis in all likelihood sagging pretty
Speaker 1: far off of him, and so one of the things
Speaker 1: I'd like to see them do to attack that. And
Speaker 1: I did a whole video on Siakam inverted ball screens earlier.
Speaker 1: It was like two or three weeks ago on our
Speaker 1: YouTube feed, one over a million examples, so you guys
Speaker 1: can kind of check that out on our YouTube feed
Speaker 1: a bit further back. But when they say guarde screens
Speaker 1: on Siakam, he usually is able to get downhill into
Speaker 1: the lane and get some good shots. So that's a
Speaker 1: big thing I'd like to see him go too. I
Speaker 1: think it's a great way to attack Milwaukee's guards too. Also,
Speaker 1: you'll get some switches that way where Siakam will be
Speaker 1: able to attack out of the post, and then Miles
Speaker 1: Turner's three point shooting has to knock down threes. The
Speaker 1: Bucks will almost certainly leave him open, and if he
Speaker 1: shoots forty percent, that just gives Indiana a much better
Speaker 1: chance to win the series. On the Milwaukee front, all
Speaker 1: about ball pressure and back pressure. You've got to be
Speaker 1: You've got to be able to stay in that deep
Speaker 1: drop coverage to be able to hold up against Indiana's
Speaker 1: paint attack. The only way you're gonna be able to
Speaker 1: do that is if you can keep him in that coverage,
Speaker 1: and the only way you're gonna be able to keep
Speaker 1: him in that coverage is with your back pressure. That
Speaker 1: is going to be the biggest fat for Milwaukee defensively
Speaker 1: in this series. How well do they guard Tyres Haliburton.
Speaker 1: Bobby Portis and Chris Middleton have to handle their matchups,
Speaker 1: meaning Bobby Portis has to be able to hold up
Speaker 1: in ISO against Pascal Siakam and be good and help situations.
Speaker 1: And Chris Middleton has to be able to help and
Speaker 1: recover in the Aaronie Smith matchup. And again he's a
Speaker 1: very good shooter and a very good closeout attacker, so
Speaker 1: that's going to be a tough job. And then Dame
Speaker 1: has to do his job effort over the top of
Speaker 1: screens when he does get switched onto Halliburton or TJ McConnell.
Speaker 1: T J McConnell did a number on the Bucks in
Speaker 1: this season series as well. I'll show you guys some
Speaker 1: clips when we get there. And then also in hedge
Speaker 1: and recover situations, he just needs to do his job
Speaker 1: to cut off that driving angle in the hedge and
Speaker 1: then to recover to chase the shooter off the line,
Speaker 1: and then lastly they got to get back in transition.
Speaker 1: The Bucks are one of the worst transition frequency teams
Speaker 1: in the league and the Pacers are one of the
Speaker 1: highest transition frequency teams in the league. They run as
Speaker 1: much as they can, and the Bucks are really bad
Speaker 1: at stopping teams from running. That's a matchup that they're
Speaker 1: going to have to gain control of. Moving over to
Speaker 1: Milwauke with the ball, I expect are Nemhard to guard
Speaker 1: Damian Lillard to start the series, Aaron Nesmith to guard
Speaker 1: Chris Middleton. Again, those are aeroni. Smith's kind of like
Speaker 1: a fire hydrant, lower center of gravity, really good sliding
Speaker 1: his feet will force Chris to shoot over the top.
Speaker 1: But Chris isn't over the top shooter, and he's good
Speaker 1: footwork guy. I'll show you some examples. Tyre's Aliburton will
Speaker 1: most likely be guarding Patrick Beverly or Milik Beasley again.
Speaker 1: With him, it's gonna be big, mostly a bit, mostly
Speaker 1: going to be about hedging and recovering, and this is
Speaker 1: a big swing factor in the series.
Speaker 2: Shoot.
Speaker 1: If Indiana can play Malik Beasley off the floor by
Speaker 1: attacking him when he's on defense and he's not making
Speaker 1: enough shots for whatever reason, then they'll have to go
Speaker 1: to Patrick Beverley. If they go to Patrick Beverley, it
Speaker 1: makes it a lot easier for Tyre's Haliburton to hedge
Speaker 1: and recover without leaving openings. So that's gonna be a
Speaker 1: big match up in this series as well. Pascal Siakam
Speaker 1: is most likely going to guard Bobby Portis and the
Speaker 1: Miles Turner is going to guard Brook Lopez. I don't
Speaker 1: think you can switch that around and have Turner guard
Speaker 1: Portis and Siakam guard Lopez because in that case, just
Speaker 1: because of how well Bobby Portis is shooting the ball,
Speaker 1: I don't think you can run a deep drop with
Speaker 1: Brook Lopez or excuse me with with Miles Turner against
Speaker 1: the Bobby Portis ball screens, because Bobby Portis is just
Speaker 1: shooting the shit out of the basketball is fifty three
Speaker 1: percent from three on fifteen games, and they'll just pick
Speaker 1: and pop and Bobby Portis is just gonna make all
Speaker 1: those shots. So I think you actually have to go
Speaker 1: with Siakam on Bobby Portis so that you have more
Speaker 1: athleticism athleticism to chase him off the three point line,
Speaker 1: and then you're gonna sit in a deep drop with
Speaker 1: Miles Turner. The Pacers are actually a solid defense with
Speaker 1: their core group Aeronie Smith, Andrew Nemhard, Pascal Siakam, and
Speaker 1: Miles Turner on the floor together have a one to
Speaker 1: eleven point five defensive rating, which is pretty good. As
Speaker 1: a matter of fact, both of these defenses, including Milwaukee,
Speaker 1: are better statistically than their reputations would lead you to believe.
Speaker 1: They're actually pretty solid defensive teams. I expect the Pacers,
Speaker 1: like I mentioned earlier, to do to Lopez with the
Speaker 1: Bucks will do to Turner, just ignore him at the
Speaker 1: three point line. I'll show you some examples on film
Speaker 1: of where the Pacers have had success against the Bucks
Speaker 1: this season by ignoring brook Lopez, I expect high drop
Speaker 1: with siakam on Portis and pick and rolls or Giannis
Speaker 1: in pick and Rolls when he returns. One other thing
Speaker 1: we're gonna see on film, Jiannis has to roll after
Speaker 1: he sets his screens. That was a big issue in
Speaker 1: the Pacers season series this year. I'll show you some examples.
Speaker 1: Miles Turner is going to be hawking the back line
Speaker 1: there so again, imagine siakam a in a ball screen
Speaker 1: with Portis up at the level right sprinting to chase
Speaker 1: Bobby Portis off the line on the kickback. Even if
Speaker 1: Bobby Portis drives, Miles Turner is going to be sitting
Speaker 1: in the paint, ignoring brook Lopez to kind of concede
Speaker 1: that catch and shoot three right keys for both teams
Speaker 1: when Milwaukee for Milwaukee, when Milwaukee has the ball cleared
Speaker 1: side ball screens for Portis and Giannis to have easier reads.
Speaker 1: I'll show some more film examples of that. Giannis has
Speaker 1: to roll hard after setting these screens. It's so important
Speaker 1: for creating the openings. Chris Middleton has to find a
Speaker 1: way to win the Nie Smith matchup just by scoring.
Speaker 1: He's got to find a way to get comfortable as
Speaker 1: a secondary kind of offensive creator there, especially while Giannis is out.
Speaker 1: Brook Lopez needs to make his catch and shoot three
Speaker 1: similar to the Turner situation. And then lastly, Damian Lillard
Speaker 1: just has to play like a superstar. It's got to
Speaker 1: make superstar shots and carry this team long enough for
Speaker 1: Yiannis to return. On the Indiana front, Aaron Nee Smith
Speaker 1: and Angel Nemhard consistently need to make Dame and Chris uncomfortable.
Speaker 1: Winning their defensive version of that matchup. Nie Smith does
Speaker 1: a good job with his back pressure. I'll show you
Speaker 1: guys some examples in Themhart again, Chris has gotten in
Speaker 1: with his footwork over this matchup. But if dem Hard
Speaker 1: can just stay steady, disrupt the shooting pocket, force tough
Speaker 1: over the top jump shots, he has a chance there.
Speaker 1: Game playing discipline is going to be big. Got to
Speaker 1: make sure the right guys are taking the shots. And
Speaker 1: then if you can play Moleague Beasley off the floor,
Speaker 1: Patrick Beverley is going to do a better job on
Speaker 1: Tyre's Halliburton, but he's also going to give you a
Speaker 1: much better job of holding up on the defensive end.
Speaker 2: Of the four.
Speaker 1: My prediction for this series. If Giannis was healthy, I'd
Speaker 1: take Milwaukee. I'd take him in seven games. Even though
Speaker 1: Indiana has dominated this matchup, I think that Damon Giannis
Speaker 1: would probably be the best the two best players in
Speaker 1: the series, especially with how Tyres Haliburton has been playing. Obviously,
Speaker 1: homecore advantage I think is a big factor there. I
Speaker 1: basically think the home team would win every game and
Speaker 1: Milwaukee would win in seven, especially with Tyre Salibert not
Speaker 1: being at one hundred percent, but with Giannis out, this
Speaker 1: feels like a series where Indiana goes up to one.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna split. In Milwaukee, They're gonna get
Speaker 1: one because Gianni's being out right, They're gonna go back
Speaker 1: to Indiana. Game three is gonna be an absolute buzzsaw
Speaker 1: for a playoff environment. I think Indiana goes up two
Speaker 1: to one, and then even if Jannis comes back in
Speaker 1: Game four, that's a really hard game to win under
Speaker 1: normal circumstances, and those would not be normal circumstances. Giannas
Speaker 1: would be coming back from an injury, and so with
Speaker 1: that being the case, I'm going Indiana in six. I
Speaker 1: think Milwaukee wins Game one I'll say off the strength
Speaker 1: of that home crowd, but I think Indiana steels game two.
Speaker 1: They run into a buzz so on game three. Game
Speaker 1: four is close, but I think Indiana gets a win.
Speaker 1: Even if Jannis plays Game five, I think Milwaukee wins,
Speaker 1: and I think Indiana closes him out in game six
Speaker 1: at home. Again, I would pick Milwaukee if Janis was healthy,
Speaker 1: but with him being out, I think the safest bet
Speaker 1: is Indiana. All right, let's talk some actual film, all right,
Speaker 1: So this first clip is an example of Andrew Nemhard
Speaker 1: providing back pressure. Just I can show you guys how
Speaker 1: good of a job he does in this particular matchup.
Speaker 1: So again, we got Brooke and Giannis getting ready to
Speaker 1: set a staggered pick and roll. But look at the
Speaker 1: job of Andrew just chasing over the top and applying
Speaker 1: that back pressure. He's making him uncomfortable getting that rear
Speaker 1: view contest, and he actually forces an airball.
Speaker 2: From Dame on this shot.
Speaker 1: Here's an example of the difference when you look at
Speaker 1: Tyres Haliburton working against Malik Beasley. So again, Tyres Haliburton,
Speaker 1: Malik Beasley, Brook Lopez in his deep drop, Isaiah Jackson
Speaker 1: sets the screen. Here, Tyres gets easily downhill. It doesn't
Speaker 1: have any trouble getting over the top of the screen.
Speaker 1: Look at this just easily gets downhill and sinks the floater.
Speaker 1: By the way, you're gonna see a lot of floaters
Speaker 1: from Tyres Haliburton in this film. Tyres Haliburton shoots fifty
Speaker 1: four percent on floaters. That shot goes in all the
Speaker 1: time for him. That's that's gonna be a sh shot
Speaker 1: that he's going to be comfortable taking against that drop coverage.
Speaker 2: Same thing.
Speaker 1: Another floater from Tyree's easily getting over Malik Beasley. See
Speaker 1: how it's just so easy for him to get to
Speaker 1: that about Look how comfortable he looks. He looks like
Speaker 1: he's dribbling through cones. Here's an example of TJ McConnell
Speaker 1: on the ball against Dame. They just have a lot
Speaker 1: better guard defenders to deal with Dame and make Dame
Speaker 1: uncomfortable than the reverse with Tyres Halliburton. Good back pressure,
Speaker 1: still pursuing, still pursuing, chasing over the top. Look at
Speaker 1: that back pressure, good contest force, another miss. TJ McConnell
Speaker 1: I think is going to be big swing factor in
Speaker 1: the series because of his dribble penetration. I talked about
Speaker 1: the gap and footspeed between both teams, especially with Giannis
Speaker 1: off the floor. TJ McConnell is actually one of the
Speaker 1: best dribble penetrators in the league. He can just hit
Speaker 1: guys with a high hesitation and just toast them off
Speaker 1: the dribble and make good things happen. Here, he's just
Speaker 1: going to beat Chris in a straight up dribble drive
Speaker 1: and open up a back cut for Ben Mathern at
Speaker 1: the rim. Again, a lot of these All these clips
Speaker 1: took place before the trade deadline, so obviously you're gonna see.
Speaker 2: Some different players on the floor.
Speaker 1: Here's an example of how the Pacers will use Miles
Speaker 1: Turner to ignore Brook Lopez and help their defense hold up. Again,
Speaker 1: this is a late game situation too, so again, watch
Speaker 1: Miles Turner. He's actually running a high drop here because
Speaker 1: of Dame okay, and that may be what they end
Speaker 1: up doing with Turner in this matchup, depending on how
Speaker 1: they hold up at the point of attack. But Brook
Speaker 1: Lopez is gonna pop and Turner's just not worried about it. Right,
Speaker 1: Lopez still open on the pop, Turner's not worried about it.
Speaker 1: Giannis is gonna dribble down on top end.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: Miles Turner's still not worried about it, still not worried
Speaker 1: about it. He's just gonna let brook Lopez catch and
Speaker 1: you see Tyres Haliburton throws a little little stunt at him.
Speaker 1: And that's, by the way, something that I think, especially
Speaker 1: if Patrick Beverly's out there, that they're gonna be able
Speaker 1: to do. And then Miles Turner is able to get
Speaker 1: a late contest on the brook Lopez shot and force
Speaker 1: some miss. Expect a lot of that. Expect Miles Turner
Speaker 1: to ignore brook Lopez to shut down other actions. Here's
Speaker 1: another example of Tyrese Haliburton cooking the drop coverage.
Speaker 2: Let's see here. So again we.
Speaker 1: Get a transition kind of crossmatch situation where Dame ends
Speaker 1: up on Tyrese Aliburton off of a miss, just set
Speaker 1: a ball screen. Dame doesn't apply any back pressure, just
Speaker 1: dies on the screen. Tyres Haliburton gets an easy little
Speaker 1: pull up jump shot. TJ McConnell saw food every time
Speaker 1: he saw Malik Beasley. This is a little brush screen
Speaker 1: with Tyrese Haliburton to get the switch and Malik Beasley
Speaker 1: is just squared up with TJ, and TJ just goes
Speaker 1: right through him for an easy little turnaround jump shot.
Speaker 1: Same exact sort of thing here this time, though, it
Speaker 1: is a trip to the foul line. So same little,
Speaker 1: same exact action, same exact little brush screen. Get him downhill,
Speaker 1: draws a foul, gets to the line.
Speaker 2: Again. You're gonna see a lot of that.
Speaker 1: You're gonna see a lot of Dame and Malik on
Speaker 1: their heels with pacers guards just coming down at them
Speaker 1: and getting great shots. Here's Tyres Haliburton cooking the drop
Speaker 1: coverage again. It's gonna get swinged over. He's gonna dribble
Speaker 1: over to the right side. Get Malik Beasley again. Watch
Speaker 1: Malik Beasley die on the screen and just allow an
Speaker 1: easy little pull up jump shot for Haliburton. You're not
Speaker 1: seeing things. This is the exact same action, exact same players,
Speaker 1: exact same result. Just too comfortable in this matchup again.
Speaker 1: That's why I look at this as so much of
Speaker 1: a of a Patrick Beverley series, Like it's gonna be
Speaker 1: a price to pay because they're not going to be
Speaker 1: nearly as good offensively. But you gotta you gotta find
Speaker 1: a way to make Tyres Haliburton uncomfortable, and these Malik
Speaker 1: and Dame are just completely not up to the task.
Speaker 1: Here's an example of why Yiannis rolling hard is important.
Speaker 1: There was a play I showed you guys earlier. Actually
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go back to it really quick so I
Speaker 1: can demonstrate. This was the the three with Tyre TJ
Speaker 1: McConnell on the ball. So watch as watch as TJ
Speaker 1: is fighting over the top. How Yannis doesn't roll, so
Speaker 1: this gets swung over, Dame gets his ball screen as
Speaker 1: he's coming off. Jannis just stands here on the perimeter,
Speaker 1: and if he rolls hard, he creates another option in
Speaker 1: the offense there, especially with how hard the show this
Speaker 1: is like watch Obi top and Obi Tompin is way
Speaker 1: up here. If Jannis is rolling here, Dame probably bails
Speaker 1: out of this shot and drops it off to Dame
Speaker 1: with an easy kind of lane towards the basket. Although
Speaker 1: once again you can see Miles Turner ignoring Brook Lopez
Speaker 1: to kind of help around the basket. Let's go back
Speaker 1: to see what it looks like when Jannis does roll hard.
Speaker 1: So as you can see here, when Yani sets the screen,
Speaker 1: we have aaron ne Smith guarding Chris Middleton here on
Speaker 1: the left wing. But there's a roll gravity. When Jannis
Speaker 1: goes this hard to the basket, he pulls Aaron Nesmith in.
Speaker 1: He actually pulls in. It looks like Bruce Brown or
Speaker 1: that's Miles Turning. He pulls in Bruce, Miles Turner, and
Speaker 1: Aaron Nesmith. That opens up this kickout pass to Brook
Speaker 1: Lopez in the extra pass to Chris Middleton at the
Speaker 1: top of the key. They need that role gravity from Giannis.
Speaker 1: He's got a roll every single time. Here's an example
Speaker 1: of why I love the cleared side pick and roll
Speaker 1: for the Bucks. This is something I've been preaching forever.
Speaker 1: They basically don't do it anymore now that Doc Rivers
Speaker 1: is the coach, which is something that kind of bums
Speaker 1: me out because I think it's the best configuration of
Speaker 1: this pick and roll. But you're gonna see Yana set
Speaker 1: the screen. When Giannis rolls into the short corner with
Speaker 1: nobody over here that can dig down on him, it
Speaker 1: doesn't matter how loaded up these guys are. He has
Speaker 1: a runway, a runway where he can gather on the
Speaker 1: left side of his body to protect the basketball and
Speaker 1: extend out and finish. Watch he's going against two centers here.
Speaker 1: There's two centers there with Jalen Smith and Miles Turner.
Speaker 1: He just rips through them both. That's the advantage of
Speaker 1: the clear side pick and roll. It just gives him
Speaker 1: a runway to go to the basket, an uncontested runway
Speaker 1: that he doesn't have to really face anything until he
Speaker 1: gets to the rim. Here's an example of using a
Speaker 1: double drag to create some more separation for Dame. So
Speaker 1: in this case, it's gonna be a little tougher when
Speaker 1: it's aaron Ne Smith because this one actually ends up
Speaker 1: being Ben Matherin on the ball, and Ben Mathern is
Speaker 1: not as good a defensive player. I shouldn't say on
Speaker 1: the ball, but on Chris. But I like the idea
Speaker 1: of setting this double screen action to help get some
Speaker 1: more separation from the primary on ball defender for Dame,
Speaker 1: and he gets a pretty good look here as a result.
Speaker 1: Here's another example, because this is the counter. The way
Speaker 1: most teams counter this is they'll just switch the first screen.
Speaker 1: So we're gonna get our double drag here, but on
Speaker 1: the double drag you're gonna see Ben Mathern jump out
Speaker 1: and switch. See he jumps out and switches, and then
Speaker 1: this turns into an ISO.
Speaker 2: What I like about that is what if.
Speaker 1: You bring Malik Beasley into the action and have him
Speaker 1: set the first screen, and then what if Tyre's Halliburton
Speaker 1: ends up getting caught up into the action as a result.
Speaker 1: This might be a good one to kind of get
Speaker 1: free of Andrew Nemhard. This is Brett Bruce Brown obviously,
Speaker 1: but Andrew Nemhard will be on the ball. But you
Speaker 1: get free from Andrew Nemhard and maybe get Tyre's Halliburton
Speaker 1: involved in the action. And then these last two clips
Speaker 1: are just examples of Chris Middleton working against Aaron Nesmith,
Speaker 1: which I think is gonna be one of the key
Speaker 1: matchups of the series. This is gonna be their secondary
Speaker 1: offensive creation while Yannis is out and he's just got
Speaker 1: to find a way to get to work. That's a
Speaker 1: tough lefty hook that he makes. Again, He's gonna beat
Speaker 1: him to spots. Nie Smith is, So it's gonna be
Speaker 1: so important for Chris Middleton to be able to make
Speaker 1: shots over the top and use his footwork to get
Speaker 1: him out of a position. Here's an example of him
Speaker 1: using a pump fake to get him out of position
Speaker 1: and draw foul and get to the line. So yeah,
Speaker 1: that that's gonna be a pretty key matchup for them too.
Speaker 1: Just yet the ability to get some good secondary creation
Speaker 1: from Chris Middleton. All right, so you guys get the
Speaker 1: point that point of attack defense from Milwaukee's gonna be
Speaker 1: the key. I think it's gonna be a trade off
Speaker 1: because I think they're gonna eventually lean heavily into Patrick
Speaker 1: Beverley to try to slow Halliburton down. But the trade
Speaker 1: off is I think they're gonna a lot easier guard
Speaker 1: with that being the case. They're gonna ignore Patrick Beverley,
Speaker 1: they're gonna ignore Brook Lopez, and those two specific kind
Speaker 1: of matchups are gonna allow them to kind of be
Speaker 1: super aggressive on the ball against Dame and protect the paint.
Speaker 1: And so a big part of this is just gonna
Speaker 1: be shot making on the backside for guys like Patrick
Speaker 1: Beverley and Brook Lopez as well, and then on the
Speaker 1: on the other end of the floor again just dealing
Speaker 1: with that, just packing the paint, trying to ignore Miles Turner,
Speaker 1: forcing the action towards jump shooting for guys like Pascal
Speaker 1: Siakam and Miles Turner as much as possible point of
Speaker 1: attack defense on Tyres Haliburton to make him uncomfortable as well. Again,
Speaker 1: as you guys can see from the film, different players
Speaker 1: involved in the matchup at this point. But the main
Speaker 1: thing I'm looking at here is with Giannis being out,
Speaker 1: do you trust this slow Milwaukee Bucks team? And with
Speaker 1: Dame as inconsistent as he's been facing higher level perimeter
Speaker 1: defenders than Tyres Haliburton is going to be facing. Is
Speaker 1: Dame gonna be able to keep this out of two
Speaker 1: to two series without Giannis?
Speaker 2: I don't think he can so.
Speaker 1: By the time Giannis gets back, I think the Bucks
Speaker 1: are gonna have to play perfect. And even if I
Speaker 1: do think they're capable of beating the Pacers, I don't
Speaker 1: think they can just sweep them like three or four
Speaker 1: times in a row. And so to me, the odds
Speaker 1: pretty heavily favor Indiana in that sense. I'm picking Indiana
Speaker 1: in six. All right, guys, that is all I have
Speaker 1: for today. We are going to be back tonight twice,
Speaker 1: once after Pelicans Lakers that's just going to be a
Speaker 1: YouTube upload, and then after Sacramento Kings, versus Golden State.
Speaker 2: We will be live on YouTube. I will see you
Speaker 2: guys then. As always, they appreciate you guys. Seeing a
Speaker 2: few hours
Speaker 1: The volume