Speaker 1: Welcome to the solid verbal hell that for me. I'm
Speaker 1: a man, I'm for it.
Speaker 2: I've heard so many players say, well, I want to
Speaker 2: be happy. You want to be happy for a day
Speaker 2: at the steak?
Speaker 1: Is that woo woof? And Dan and tie welcome back
Speaker 1: to the solid verbol, boys and girls. My name is
Speaker 1: Ti Hildebrand. That fine gentleman over there in a quasi
Speaker 1: matching quarter zip is Dan Rubenstein. We did not do
Speaker 1: this on purpose if you're watching the video, but alast
Speaker 1: we are not changing because we're comfortable. Frankly, Dan, how
Speaker 1: are you? I'm good.
Speaker 2: I am a company man because Roeback sponsor can continue
Speaker 2: to be I think we're both a weaaring Roeback. So
Speaker 2: you know, shout out to these quarter zips. They're very
Speaker 2: comfortable as the is it. The weather's turned a little bit.
Speaker 2: I know you're on the East coast and you got
Speaker 2: some storms along the seaboard. You're not on the seaboard,
Speaker 2: but uh weather's turning. It's fall correct that that is correct.
Speaker 2: The house is getting a little chillier at night. The
Speaker 2: snow dog that is downstairs that you may hear barking
Speaker 2: at some point during this broadcast is enjoying it much
Speaker 2: more than anybody else. But alas it is the end
Speaker 2: of September, it has been a September to remember in
Speaker 2: many respects. On today's show, we're going to talk through
Speaker 2: what it looks like moving forward for some teams. We've
Speaker 2: got this term called LOR luck running out.
Speaker 1: You just said lor What did I say LR?
Speaker 2: You just said l R, which is how I screwed
Speaker 2: it up because I'm dumb on our previous show.
Speaker 1: Excuse me, yeah, LRO luck running out teams We're going
Speaker 1: to talk through. We're going to try to figure out
Speaker 1: is it a luck thing, is it not a luck thing,
Speaker 1: Who's good luck, who's bad? Luck? Is set to run
Speaker 1: out the ro or not or not correct? I was
Speaker 1: going to talk through some of the news of the
Speaker 1: past couple of days, most notably Jeff Collins getting fired
Speaker 1: at Georgia Tech. Todd Stansbury, the director, also out go
Speaker 1: through some of those candidates. This episode, all of our
Speaker 1: episodes driven by our good friends over at Geico. Don't
Speaker 1: forget You've only got about what nine ten days now? Yeah,
Speaker 1: Solid Verbolive dot Com, Smell tieshair dot Com. We started
Speaker 1: posting graphics. You and I had a long internal production
Speaker 1: call yesterday. Yeah, it's called work tie, It's called work
Speaker 1: cald work, cald work. We started figuring this thing out.
Speaker 1: It's got a high degree of difficulty, but I think
Speaker 1: the upside, the upside is there for this concept that
Speaker 1: we are going to do the Solid Verbal Presents College
Speaker 1: Football Call in the Game Show, Live, New York City,
Speaker 1: eight pm, Chelsea Music Hall, October the seventh, Not this Friday,
Speaker 1: next Friday.
Speaker 2: It's like it's mere feet away from the best tacos
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Speaker 2: one to two that you're interested in college football fun
Speaker 2: on a Friday night, Friday, October seventh, and delicious handmade
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Speaker 1: It's the best. Let's talk us number one not a
Speaker 1: sponsor could be. Shall we get to news? Let's let's
Speaker 1: but I saved my voice these days for the true
Speaker 1: breaking news. It's hard to do in an on demand
Speaker 1: ecosystem such as podcasting, so we'll save it, use it
Speaker 1: when we need to the news. I mentioned it at
Speaker 1: the top. Jeff Collins fired at Georgia Tech. It is
Speaker 1: now the third consecutive week that we've had a coach
Speaker 1: get fired after dismal results. Jeff Collins, of course was
Speaker 1: rumored to be fired for a while. We kind of
Speaker 1: knew this was coming. It does catch me off guard
Speaker 1: every time it happens after like week four or week
Speaker 1: three or week two. That's just where we are now
Speaker 1: as a sport. Todd Stansbury, the athletic director, also out
Speaker 1: it is of note that Jeff Collins was his first
Speaker 1: big hire, so did not go swimmingly for either of
Speaker 1: those two gentlemen. Per our friend Bruce Felman, here are
Speaker 1: some of the names. Dan, we can talk through which
Speaker 1: ones we like, which ones we don't like. But Deon
Speaker 1: Sanders getting some love here. Yeah, Deon Sanders a name
Speaker 1: that Bruce lists first in his coaching candidates to watch.
Speaker 1: Also Jeff Monkin as well as Todd Monkin, the Monkin brothers.
Speaker 1: Jeff of course, the head coach at Army, Todd the
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator at Georgia, Charles Huff from Marshall, Sean Lewis
Speaker 1: from Kent Right, Caine Wollmack from South Alabama, Bill O'Brien,
Speaker 1: the current offensive coordinator for the Alabama Crimson Tide, and
Speaker 1: Alex Atkins, currently the offensive coordinator at Florida State. Dan.
Speaker 1: Another name that I didn't list here in that initial
Speaker 1: batch was Jamie Chadwell because if only based on the
Speaker 1: feedback we have gotten, the early feedback we've gotten on
Speaker 1: our discord server, which you could find overballards dot com.
Speaker 1: Jamie Chadwell, current coach at to Carolina. I'm also a
Speaker 1: name I think very much going to be pursued here
Speaker 1: in this next batch of coach hires. Jamie Chadwell another
Speaker 1: name that could be very interesting given his proximity to
Speaker 1: the job, given what he's done at Coastal, given the
Speaker 1: fact that he's young and innovative, got a hybrid offensive system,
Speaker 1: fun to watch. There's a lot to like about Jamie Chadwell.
Speaker 1: So if I were to say to you, your option
Speaker 1: is Jamie Chadwell or one of the other names on
Speaker 1: this list, oh man phrasing with option continue, Jamie Chadwell
Speaker 1: or one of these other what eight names that I listed? Yeah?
Speaker 1: Which direction would you go? I would go a different direction? Okay? Why?
Speaker 2: I think Jamie Chadwell will succeed on the Power five level.
Speaker 2: But I think Georgia Tech is so specific in that
Speaker 2: it is not a football powerhouse. Right when Georgia Tech
Speaker 2: succeeds in football, which they do and have had stretches
Speaker 2: of doing, it almost seems like it's right before Clemson pops,
Speaker 2: right right before, like they're filling a vacuum, right when
Speaker 2: the ACC was crazy down and Georgia Tech found itself
Speaker 2: in the AEC championship game against I believe wake Forest
Speaker 2: maybe a Riley Skinner Reggie Ball situation. It's that they're
Speaker 2: an opportunity truck program, that they'll run a system, or
Speaker 2: that they will be pretty good in a year when
Speaker 2: other teams that are traditionally better are not as much.
Speaker 2: And so you factor in the academics, you factor in
Speaker 2: do kids want to play college football in a major
Speaker 2: American city as opposed to a college town? Right, if
Speaker 2: you're good enough in Atlanta to play for a major
Speaker 2: power five program, how many do you have within a
Speaker 2: four hour drive, five hour drive, five hour flight, right
Speaker 2: that everybody that Atlanta metro area has become an increasing hotbed.
Speaker 2: And so do you want to play for a power
Speaker 2: in a traditional college town or do you want to
Speaker 2: stay home? And that's that challenge I think, and I
Speaker 2: think Jeff Collins did an admirable job in terms of
Speaker 2: trying to transition this program away from the baggage fair
Speaker 2: or not, of the triple of the triple auction, the flexbone, whatever.
Speaker 2: And it was always going to be a struggle on
Speaker 2: a certain level with how deeply entrenched that recruiting was
Speaker 2: and that system was within the roster to move to
Speaker 2: a different system, to move to a more modern slash
Speaker 2: traditional power pro style not option. So it's just going
Speaker 2: to be a challenge for whoever. And now you look
Speaker 2: at some of the other schools that are more academically rigorous,
Speaker 2: they're all like in when they succeed Stanford, Northwestern, Duke
Speaker 2: and Duke maybe is not the best example, but like
Speaker 2: Stanford and Northwestern, Vanderbilt did with James Franklin, but he
Speaker 2: was expert recruiter, and you can find quarterbacks to run
Speaker 2: a system like James Franklin wants to run. But Stanford
Speaker 2: leans on the offensive lineman thing. Northwestern leaned on three
Speaker 2: stars academics defense right that the offense was never there,
Speaker 2: but they hit with some really strong defensive coaching hires,
Speaker 2: namely my Hankuets. And so the question for Georgia Tech
Speaker 2: is not how do we become a program that competes
Speaker 2: to win nine or ten games a season, it's how
Speaker 2: do we become a program that wins eight games in
Speaker 2: a very specific way. Does it have to be the
Speaker 2: triple option? You mentioned Jeff Monkin's name, and they succeeded
Speaker 2: under Paul Johnson, But then people got sick of what
Speaker 2: appeared to be a ceiling. And yes, we'll be a
Speaker 2: ball team, Yes we'll beat a good team here and there.
Speaker 2: Yes we will run for a kajillion yards, but we
Speaker 2: can't really develop defenses running the triple and recruit to
Speaker 2: a good defense running the triple. And we want to
Speaker 2: appear to be more modern and attractive to quarterbacks who
Speaker 2: could potentially fit in with Georgia Tech. And so Jeff
Speaker 2: Collins did a good job also of marketing Atlanta as
Speaker 2: like the team of Atlanta, as you know, fraught and futile,
Speaker 2: as that may be at times with Georgia owning that
Speaker 2: territory to the degree that it does. So, Yeah, Todd
Speaker 2: Munkin's an interesting name. I saw what Dell McGee I
Speaker 2: think is the Rams running coach. I saw Richard Johnson
Speaker 2: wrote a longer piece that's worth your time at si
Speaker 2: dot com about the Georgia Tech opening, Charles Huff you
Speaker 2: mentioned is interesting because of his experience recruiting in the
Speaker 2: South and the success he had at Alabama and recruiting there.
Speaker 2: It's it's ultimately going to be somebody who embraces what
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech is instead of what it isn't. And that's
Speaker 2: true of a lot of jobs, and which is why
Speaker 2: I think Paul Johnson succeeded. You're like, this is a
Speaker 2: place where you need to be very specific. His brand
Speaker 2: of specificity was that offense, that option offense, and you
Speaker 2: own a Georgia Tech Orange Bowl Champion's hat, do you not?
Speaker 1: I do? It's it's yeah, it's somewhere around here.
Speaker 2: So it's leaning into that specificity. And if it's the option,
Speaker 2: if it's you know, defense and blitzing and just going
Speaker 2: all in on defense and having an offense that serves
Speaker 2: the defense, fine, whatever, I just think it's going. It's
Speaker 2: basically impossible to say we're gonna do what Tennessee did
Speaker 2: right a long down, dormant program. But it's in a
Speaker 2: college town. There's a history there. I just don't think
Speaker 2: you can if you really want to make Georgia Tech
Speaker 2: a nine win ACC, a ten win ACC type program.
Speaker 2: It's gonna take twenty years, right, a twenty years of
Speaker 2: it doing it correctly. So let me ask you about
Speaker 2: Deon Sanders them. Okay, the Deon Sanders angle is.
Speaker 1: Very interesting because there's an obvious connection with it Atlanta,
Speaker 1: their legend icon. Yeah. Given his professional career, he has
Speaker 1: clearly burst onto the college football scene with what he's
Speaker 1: done at Jackson State, notably what he did with Travis Hunter,
Speaker 1: recruiting Travis Hunter away from Florida State last second, big deal,
Speaker 1: big deal in our parts here earlier this year. So
Speaker 1: let's talk through Deon Sanders and what that looks like.
Speaker 1: Because if Dion comes to Georgia Tech, you would imagine
Speaker 1: there would be something of a boon with recruiting. You'd
Speaker 1: imagine that the folks who are willing to give money
Speaker 1: to that program would be energized and perhaps want to
Speaker 1: give more money. Georgia Tech has shown, at least on
Speaker 1: some level, an ongoing commitment to the football program. They
Speaker 1: want to make this thing better, They want to make
Speaker 1: facilities better. There was a like a nine figure renovation
Speaker 1: project that I had read about. So this is not
Speaker 1: a program that is I think, content to just collect dust.
Speaker 1: They clearly want to move things forward. In the fact
Speaker 1: that Dion is out there, given his connection to Atlanta
Speaker 1: is really interesting. I also think there will be other
Speaker 1: jobs that will want to try and court Deon Sanders.
Speaker 1: We're talking about week five now, there's a chance that
Speaker 1: Auburn is next. I'm not rooting for that for Brian Harson,
Speaker 1: but there's a chance that depending on how things go
Speaker 1: against LSU this week in Harson could be the next
Speaker 1: man up. Auburn you would think would also be interested
Speaker 1: in a guy like Dion, So any thoughts on Dion
Speaker 1: Sanders and where he might go next.
Speaker 2: So you have to separate Dion Sanders from the big,
Speaker 2: outsize personality who has recruited really well and won a
Speaker 2: ton of games by the way, at Jackson State. Not
Speaker 2: eligible I don't believe for the FCS playoffs, but won
Speaker 2: a ton of games and has done a crazy impressive
Speaker 2: job that I think has surprised a lot of people
Speaker 2: given his lack of college football coaching background. So if
Speaker 2: you remove Dion and you're just saying very successful Jackson
Speaker 2: State coach, that leap is unprecedented to go from an
Speaker 2: FCS school to a Power five program, especially one in
Speaker 2: a big city with the history that Georgia Tech football
Speaker 2: kind of does. Anyway, that even I remember when at
Speaker 2: a certain point when the Oregon job opened. Maybe it
Speaker 2: was when Willie Taggart took the job, when PJ. Fleck
Speaker 2: was floated by some people in the Oregon universe or
Speaker 2: like Oregon fan universe, and what I had heard in
Speaker 2: coaching circles and hiring circles, and it's too big a
Speaker 2: leap to go from Western Michigan to Oregon is too big,
Speaker 2: that Oregon's too major a program, and that when he
Speaker 2: made that move to Minnesota it probably made more sense.
Speaker 2: Georgia Tech is not where Oregon is. But to go
Speaker 2: from FCS too well, not the not just ACS, HBCU, right, HBCU.
Speaker 2: It's an inn jump, that's, like you said, unprecedented that
Speaker 2: I think would be a great story. It'd be a
Speaker 2: great story. And if there were anybody equipped to handle
Speaker 2: the increase in pressure and attention and shaking hands and
Speaker 2: being that sort of major figurehead for a Power five program,
Speaker 2: it does seem like it would be Deon. Sandyon could
Speaker 2: handle that. Yeah, Now, Dion Sanders. If we're going to
Speaker 2: talk about his presence, his personality, he's already in commercials
Speaker 2: and he was on the NFL network, and he's primetime.
Speaker 1: Right, primetime coach Prime. There's not a.
Speaker 2: Lot that's cool about Georgia Tech. There's not as much
Speaker 2: college football cultural cachet that surrounds Georgia Tech in the
Speaker 2: way that it surrounds schools in Texas, schools in the SEC,
Speaker 2: schools elsewhere in the ACC, schools in the Big Ten,
Speaker 2: some schools in the PAC twelve, right, that there is
Speaker 2: a certain fit of like this major personality is now
Speaker 2: fitting in with this place that he can fully be
Speaker 2: himself and recruit to sensically, sensibly, sensically sense whatever. That Again,
Speaker 2: I think you have to lean into what Georgia Tech
Speaker 2: is rather than what they're not.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, look, let's put it this way. The
Speaker 1: first thing that they need to figure out is what
Speaker 1: is the administrative structure. Yeah, there's no idea in place
Speaker 1: of that, but is the administrative structure, who's making the
Speaker 1: higher what does that look like? What is the landing spot,
Speaker 1: the true administrative landing spot for whichever coach they decide
Speaker 1: to go out after But I think Georgia Tech, even
Speaker 1: by virtue of getting Paul Johnson when they did, they
Speaker 1: prove that they are willing to zag a little bit.
Speaker 1: The institution is willing to take a risk to zag
Speaker 1: a little bit. They didn't do that as much with
Speaker 1: Jeff Collins, who were trying to get away from that
Speaker 1: very specific system. But this could be another opportunity where
Speaker 1: they decide to just fully steer into a personality driven
Speaker 1: program with the Deion Sanders, someone who, by the way,
Speaker 1: to your point, has done really well. He's done really well,
Speaker 1: he's recruited well, he's obviously won games. It's a huge
Speaker 1: jump to go from Jackson State to Georgia Tech. But
Speaker 1: I just think it's an interesting example. I really think
Speaker 1: it's an interesting example, and I would love to see
Speaker 1: it for Georgia Tech. I'd loved I don't know if
Speaker 1: it would work, but I'd much rather see a guy
Speaker 1: like a Dion Sanders try to take coach Prime and
Speaker 1: all the swagger that comes with to Atlanta place he's
Speaker 1: very familiar with, to a program that is desperate to
Speaker 1: have a better football program than a place like Auburn.
Speaker 1: No disrespect to Auburn, but It's just more interesting to
Speaker 1: me to have a guy like that go to Georgia
Speaker 1: Tech and see what he can do with the program.
Speaker 1: So we'll seems certainly more to come on this.
Speaker 2: I might go Huff depending on what his season looks
Speaker 2: like and how general how different parts of Marshall's program improves,
Speaker 2: obviously as they navigate a new conference. But he's I
Speaker 2: think he's a morehead guy, right, isn't he a joemo
Speaker 2: guy like he was Penn State's running backs coach that
Speaker 2: I think he went to Mississippi State. He was obviously
Speaker 2: at Alabama. I think he had a year or two
Speaker 2: in the NFL. Bruce Felman did write I think a
Speaker 2: feature on Charles Huff and so now having that head
Speaker 2: coaching experience, I think that's interesting. None as a good
Speaker 2: recruiter known as somebody who inspired, like he has a
Speaker 2: really strong seeming reputation, and yeah, that's going to get
Speaker 2: a game.
Speaker 1: Resident, He's going to get a game before long, and
Speaker 1: you should. You should. Totally very interesting. It's only going
Speaker 1: to continue to get more interesting as we go through
Speaker 1: here Week five. Who knows what Week five will bring
Speaker 1: on the coaching front. Two other very quick notes A
Speaker 1: Naias Smith done for the rest of the year at
Speaker 1: Texas A reportedly a leg fracture. They did not come
Speaker 1: out and say it. They just said it was a
Speaker 1: lower Well we're body injury, but leg fracture. Out for
Speaker 1: the rest of the season. Not cool, not cool. Feel
Speaker 1: bad for him, Definitely feel bad for the Texas A
Speaker 1: and m offense. He was a key component of that,
Speaker 1: especially when it goes to when it comes to downfield
Speaker 1: stuff going downfield. So Nya Smith done the rest of
Speaker 1: the year. Bummer for him. Hank Bachmeyer on a different note,
Speaker 1: for Boise State, it has not been a good run
Speaker 1: for him in the early going so far this season
Speaker 1: for the Broncos. He has decided the transfer out of
Speaker 1: Boise State. Have not seen where he might go next.
Speaker 1: He's got a year of eligibility left and presumably somebody
Speaker 1: will want Hank Bachmeyer. He's had a pretty good run
Speaker 1: at Boise but not in the early going. Here and
Speaker 1: Andy and Alos. Yeah, he's got to figure out something
Speaker 1: on offense because ten points against UTEP is not going
Speaker 1: to cut it.
Speaker 2: No, I think he's got to figure out something in
Speaker 2: terms of Monster dot Com because I just when you
Speaker 2: look at trends, and when you look at offense careening
Speaker 2: off a cliff quarterback highest profile. I don't know if
Speaker 2: he's the highest profile or the highest rated. I know
Speaker 2: he was a four star quarterback YE two. Boise State,
Speaker 2: of which they do not have a history of finding
Speaker 2: four star developed a ton of good quarterbacks, but attracting
Speaker 2: a top level recruits to Boise State was a great
Speaker 2: job done by I think it was harsonaire, of course,
Speaker 2: but things seem acrimonious on the offensive side of the ball.
Speaker 2: They bring in dirt Cutter and I don't know, man,
Speaker 2: this type of momentum with how Oregon State season started
Speaker 2: against Oregon State with all the turnovers in the first
Speaker 2: half and the offense just looking like a mess, and
Speaker 2: Andy Ablos, you know, obviously fires his offensive coordinator. But
Speaker 2: it's hard to reverse course, not impossible, but tough to
Speaker 2: reverse course because as we know, and as we're all
Speaker 2: aware this, the bar is pretty high in Boise for
Speaker 2: college football. Like we can talk about the expectations at
Speaker 2: certain places and coaches being let go in Nebraska and
Speaker 2: Tennessee wherever over these past few years, Boise State is
Speaker 2: not an eight win expectation job it just isn't, and
Speaker 2: so Boise expects rightfully so given the resources and the
Speaker 2: growth of that program, Boise expects to be in the
Speaker 2: mix more often than not for that New Year's six
Speaker 2: Bowl game.
Speaker 1: I think that's totally fair. And by the way, if
Speaker 1: it does go south at Auburn for Brian Harrison, if
Speaker 1: it does continue to go south for Andy Avelos at Boyse,
Speaker 1: perhaps Brian Harson ends up back at Boise next season.
Speaker 1: That is not so possible. That is that is not
Speaker 1: out of the realm of possibility.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's uh yeah, I didn't mind the higher obviously
Speaker 2: quite familiar with Andy Avlos from his time at Oregon.
Speaker 2: It made sense given he played there and coached there
Speaker 2: and has the West Coast ties. I think he's from California.
Speaker 2: But this is it's that weird crossover of Boise both
Speaker 2: seen being seen forever and ever as cute little Boyse.
Speaker 2: It's cute that they win all these games, and the
Speaker 2: fun crispy they expect to win a lot of games
Speaker 2: in that treasure Valley.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: By the way, a couple other news items I just
Speaker 2: scan across, and then we'll get into our lucky game.
Speaker 2: Brandt Keithy the tight end for you, like all American
Speaker 2: caliber tight end. He's out for the season, which is
Speaker 2: a major blow to cam Rising in that passing attack.
Speaker 2: But they recruited tight end pretty well and it's they
Speaker 2: run a lot of two tight ends. That's the other
Speaker 2: thing is South Carolina moved their game to Thursday because
Speaker 2: of the incomings and Hurricane Ians, So you might see
Speaker 2: more either precautionary cancelations, postponements, or hey let's play Friday,
Speaker 2: Hey let's play Thursday. That's somebody keep your eye on.
Speaker 2: And I think it's South Carolina. South Carolina State, I believe,
Speaker 2: is who they're playing this week. That's correct, not a major,
Speaker 2: major matchup, but something that they felt was worth doing.
Speaker 1: So keep an eye peel. Okay, play then play the game.
Speaker 1: Little Brittany here to alcow you to the college Football podcast.
Speaker 1: So sphere Dan, what is this game?
Speaker 2: So we've been talking about luck and a team, but
Speaker 2: not the only team that I think in the early
Speaker 2: going that's been associated with some degree of luck has
Speaker 2: been because of the turnover different wrencheal USC.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 2: Now, let me be clear as somebody who has doubted
Speaker 2: a USC at least in the short term their defense.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that hype machine continue.
Speaker 2: Lucky does not mean bad. You can be lucky and good.
Speaker 2: They can be occurring at the same time. And you're
Speaker 2: not only good because of luck, but sometimes you might
Speaker 2: be three and one instead of four and oh because
Speaker 2: of some luck. And so luck can take its form
Speaker 2: in a number of ways. It's not just turnover march.
Speaker 2: And this is what I have here that I think
Speaker 2: in some ways can be considered lucky. So we have
Speaker 2: what tip balls on passes right, that it's a skill
Speaker 2: to tip a ball, but you're not necessarily You're not
Speaker 2: Wilt Chamberlain or Bill Russell tipping it and getting it
Speaker 2: to a teammate all in the same motion. It's a
Speaker 2: little different with a rifled pass of doinks right can
Speaker 2: be involved with luck? We have I have brutally bad
Speaker 2: game changing referee calls yes like a and that's it's
Speaker 2: a moment. And so a lot of these games don't
Speaker 2: necessarily come down to a moment. There are opportunities in
Speaker 2: both directions. But yeah, that you can be just flat
Speaker 2: unlucky that your star edg rusher is called for targeting
Speaker 2: and it upon replay, it wasn't or flat unlucky that
Speaker 2: a pass interference was missed or something like that. That
Speaker 2: is unlucky. Sure, you can be lucky, especially in the
Speaker 2: early going, that teams on your schedule are way worse
Speaker 2: than anticipated or way better on unluckiness, like, oh my god,
Speaker 2: I didn't see all these.
Speaker 1: Teams being this good. Damn it.
Speaker 2: You can be I mean, you got the fumble recovery.
Speaker 1: Go either way.
Speaker 2: You can be lucky with fumble recoveries and unlucky with
Speaker 2: fumble recoveries that the ball just bounces the wrong way.
Speaker 2: You be unlucky with weather. They're like, we should be
Speaker 2: way better, but this team, you know, was hosting us
Speaker 2: in a monsoon situation. That is flat unlucky. That is
Speaker 2: act of God that you have nothing to do with.
Speaker 2: And then of course injury luck either way, some teams
Speaker 2: get fantastic injury luck, and some teams are just snake bitten,
Speaker 2: sometimes literally, and somebody's kept out of a game because
Speaker 2: of venom in there in their body venom.
Speaker 1: So yeah, there's all sorts of.
Speaker 2: Ways, especially a few weeks in where you're like, man,
Speaker 2: I am just flat lucky as a SO and SO fan,
Speaker 2: or I am flat unlucky as a SO and SO fan. Sure,
Speaker 2: So that's where I come down with luck and the sport.
Speaker 1: You can be.
Speaker 2: Bad and lucky. You can be good and lucky, you
Speaker 2: be bad and unlucky, you can be bad, you can
Speaker 2: be good and unlucky. It all happens, It all fits
Speaker 2: in the spectrum. So what we want to do is
Speaker 2: evaluate the luck. We want to evaluate the luck thus
Speaker 2: far through four weeks of the college football season. When
Speaker 2: things kick off in week five, if you can believe.
Speaker 1: It will be October oh Man September football effectively over,
Speaker 1: though there will be a couple games before we get
Speaker 1: the Saturday. But for all intents and purposes, we've made
Speaker 1: it through excuse me, one month of the season, and
Speaker 1: so we have a pretty good set of data that
Speaker 1: we can go on with respect to law. Give me
Speaker 1: a couple teams here. I know you mentioned USC, but
Speaker 1: let's let's let's pick a different team. We can come
Speaker 1: back to USC later.
Speaker 2: I have some teams that you could consider to be
Speaker 2: both lucky and unlucky. Okay, I think Notre Dame could
Speaker 2: be both lucky and unlucky. Unlucky because of the status
Speaker 2: of their starting quarterback shoulder, just an unlucky literal break
Speaker 2: right that they with their schedule, getting Ohio State as
Speaker 2: early as they did. And even though Tyler Buckner was
Speaker 2: not an immediate All American, let's phrase it, he probably
Speaker 2: very kind of you, thank you. He probably has a
Speaker 2: better and would have had a better chance of developing
Speaker 2: into something more dangerous than Notre Dame's backups, because I
Speaker 2: think the raw talent he's perceived to have.
Speaker 1: Does that make sense, It makes sense. I will say that,
Speaker 1: you know, Drew Pine against North Carolina completed pretty much
Speaker 1: any pass he wanted to thus far. His completion percentage
Speaker 1: is sixty nine percent. Hey, nice, something like that. So
Speaker 1: he's done a good job against a team like in
Speaker 1: North Carolina, did enough to win against Cal. You know,
Speaker 1: Notre Dame is in a weird spot with that quarterback position.
Speaker 1: And I can't tell if it's a matter of Buckner
Speaker 1: playing against two really good teams in Ohio State and
Speaker 1: Marshall back to back weeks one and two, or if
Speaker 1: it is just a Buckner problem. Because you know, as
Speaker 1: well as I, we talked to plenty of people here
Speaker 1: in the off season that were like, maybe think again
Speaker 1: about Tyler Buckner. Maybe maybe like don't don't go all
Speaker 1: in on Tyler Buckner as the answer at quarterback at
Speaker 1: Notre Dame. So what I'm dancing around here is I'm
Speaker 1: just not sure Buckner's that good. That's okay, And it
Speaker 1: is still unlucky that Notre Dame would have this circumstance
Speaker 1: where they got to start Drew Pine, a ninety five
Speaker 1: pound quarterback the rest of the way against the schedule
Speaker 1: that is not particularly like super easy. So definitely a
Speaker 1: stroke of bad luck for Notre Dame. Quarterback depth is
Speaker 1: going to be an issue moving forward, at least for
Speaker 1: the entirety of this season. Who knows what it looks
Speaker 1: like next season. And you know, looking ahead at some
Speaker 1: of these other teams in the schedule, they've got a
Speaker 1: bye week now, but then they've got BYU right a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks after that, they go on the road
Speaker 1: to Syracuse, they got Clemson, They've got usc Like, they
Speaker 1: got to get their their offense squared away here with
Speaker 1: their quarterback situation before long, otherwise we could be looking
Speaker 1: at a few more l's in the schedule.
Speaker 2: I should point out all legit programs worth rooting for
Speaker 2: BT BYU that's all.
Speaker 1: Now, that's all. I'm fair enough.
Speaker 2: The reason I said Notre Dame both that they are
Speaker 2: all so lucky is that col game featured a postgame
Speaker 2: referee apology about an offsides call that extended a Notre
Speaker 2: Dame drive got them a touchdown and they win by
Speaker 2: a touchdown. That game also featured I believe by their
Speaker 2: skin of the teeth hail Mary drop that is right
Speaker 2: at the end.
Speaker 1: That is correct.
Speaker 2: Again, you can be good and lucky, but Notre Dame
Speaker 2: walking away from that game, I think now that we
Speaker 2: have all of the facts, a bit lucky, that's okay.
Speaker 2: I have Minnesota lucky and also good. But you look
Speaker 2: at their schedule, it's been pretty good through the first
Speaker 2: few weeks of the season. I didn't see the Michigan
Speaker 2: State thing coming. I was I was in on Minnesota.
Speaker 2: I bet Minnesota with.
Speaker 1: Hard earned dollars, hardered Americans. I was in on Minnesota
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. I did not feel that
Speaker 1: confident about it. But to win thirty four to seven,
Speaker 1: I believe was the final, and to look as good
Speaker 1: as they did against a team in Michigan State that again,
Speaker 1: I wasn't sure they were going to be as good
Speaker 1: as they were a year ago. But I didn't think
Speaker 1: it's bad. It was really bad against Minnesota. That is
Speaker 1: a result they did not expect. So I do believe
Speaker 1: that Minnesota is good, though I do have scar tissue
Speaker 1: from last year and even the year before going in
Speaker 1: on Minnesota and having them burn.
Speaker 2: Me corolary slash a dendum. I should probably learn what
Speaker 2: either of those words mean. Any team who has played
Speaker 2: Colorado or Nebraska is extremely lucky to have them on
Speaker 2: the schedule this season, if not seasons moving forward. Who's
Speaker 2: to say, but yeah, that Minnesota has Colorado is it's a.
Speaker 1: Nice, little, nice little fluff.
Speaker 2: I suppose in a number of ways, I didn't mean
Speaker 2: fluff the way that some people might be understanding that
Speaker 2: term to me.
Speaker 1: But here we are. It's too late. I think.
Speaker 2: I don't think it's necessarily the worst thing in the
Speaker 2: world if you're a program like Minnesota with expectations of
Speaker 2: being good but not necessarily excellent in playoff caliber, to
Speaker 2: have the preseason schedule or the non conference schedule that
Speaker 2: they do. But it is it is lucky that they
Speaker 2: have this year's iteration of what Michigan State's looking like
Speaker 2: and what Colorado's is looking like not their fault, and
Speaker 2: I think I'm sure their turnover margin is out of
Speaker 2: this world it is it's well, no it's not, it's
Speaker 2: plus three. It's fine, But that they had those games
Speaker 2: and also that I guess Kirk Sharaka became available.
Speaker 1: Kirk the sound is back on the board now forevermore continue.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I think their number one most efficient defense
Speaker 2: in the nation number is probably based on a little
Speaker 2: bit more than just an incredible defense.
Speaker 1: So I mean, they're definitely lucky to some extent because
Speaker 1: of the schedule. But we said it at the very
Speaker 1: like the very beginning of the season, we said this
Speaker 1: about Minnesota that because of the schedule, because of just
Speaker 1: what they had coming back, it seems somewhat probably that
Speaker 1: they're undefeated going into their game what mid October, second
Speaker 1: to last week of October at Penn State. And that's
Speaker 1: a game for Penn State that's really really tender because
Speaker 1: that's like a very let down, look aheady situation for
Speaker 1: Penn State in between Michigan and Ohio State. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: plus there's history there at Minnesota. Yeah, I don't know,
Speaker 1: do not be surprised if Minnesota goes to Penn State
Speaker 1: and knocks them off. Right now, looking at projections, that's
Speaker 1: about to pick them. Okay, Vegas has that as about
Speaker 1: to pick them. Maybe Penn State favored by a few,
Speaker 1: but Vegas views these teams very very similarly. I like that.
Speaker 2: I like that, you know what, And I know Minnesota
Speaker 2: has a rival of course in Wisconsin, but Penn State
Speaker 2: to me still without that obvious rival, the personalities of
Speaker 2: both James Franklin and PJ. Fleck would make for like
Speaker 2: a fun let's look forward to this game a little
Speaker 2: bit more. We had the game where Minnesota upsets and
Speaker 2: they hang on to upset Penn State. I think in
Speaker 2: twenty nineteen, like I'd say, budding rivalry.
Speaker 1: Not necessarily, they're kind of the same, dude. There's a
Speaker 1: lot a lot of overlap there. Yeah, yeah, okay, Okay.
Speaker 2: By the way, imagine if in like nineteen ninety three,
Speaker 2: we were like fast forward twenty years, thirty years, whatever
Speaker 2: it is since then, Jesus World teams are going to
Speaker 2: feel so incredible about seeing Nebraska and Colorado on their schedule.
Speaker 2: Be unfathomable. But wo yeah, that's it's a crazy conversation
Speaker 2: for another day. How about Ohio State a little bit lucky?
Speaker 2: You think Ohio State is a little bit lucky, And
Speaker 2: this isn't because of what they've done thus far, but
Speaker 2: a little bit lucky in that when you look at
Speaker 2: the rest of Ohio State's schedule and the Big Ten
Speaker 2: that it's sort of an opposite whatever the opposite is
Speaker 2: of Hurricane Ian. The skies are opening up. It's Hurricane
Speaker 2: Ryan day, because it's Rutgers, it's whatever Michigan State is,
Speaker 2: It's Iowa without an offense. Penn State on the road
Speaker 2: is going to be challenging. Northwestern seems to have fully collapse.
Speaker 2: Not that a good Northwestern was going to beat Ohio State,
Speaker 2: but it could have been a challenge like it was
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty. Indiana looks like they're not going to
Speaker 2: be a lot. Maryland looks decent but have a pretty
Speaker 2: low ceiling, and Michigan was maryland Ish this past weekend.
Speaker 2: I'm just speaking. In this moment, Ohio State appears to
Speaker 2: be full on excellent and fortunate that the rest of
Speaker 2: their schedule, which at one point seemed pretty rough, now
Speaker 2: is seeming pretty great. See, I thought you were going
Speaker 2: to stay lucky because of their receiver depth. No, no,
Speaker 2: they amassed that with skill.
Speaker 1: To me, I mean they are just so loaded at
Speaker 1: the skill positions that it is increasingly difficult to figure
Speaker 1: out who can go toe to toe with this team. Honestly,
Speaker 1: it's going to be Bama, It's going to be Georgia,
Speaker 1: one of those teams. That's the only team. I stand
Speaker 1: by it. I said at the top, Michigan fans can
Speaker 1: can yell at me if you want, but I still
Speaker 1: believe it. Nobody's beating this team. Nobody's beating this team,
Speaker 1: at least on their schedule in the regular season. With
Speaker 1: the offense that they have a mass because you know, CJ.
Speaker 1: Stroud is awesome at quarterback, still underrated in my view,
Speaker 1: perpetually underrated. Somehow. They've got a great running two great
Speaker 1: running backs led by Trey Henderson. Even when you're not
Speaker 1: starting Jackson Smith and Jigba still got a mechag Buca,
Speaker 1: still got Marvin Harrison Junior. You still got Julian Fleming,
Speaker 1: all these guys that can just plug and play out wide.
Speaker 1: Put that behind a good line like there really are
Speaker 1: no weak spots on that offense, and with a defense
Speaker 1: that's going to continue to get better under Jim Knowles, Like,
Speaker 1: I just don't see it. So yeah, I mean, I
Speaker 1: guess they're lucky to some extent with the schedule they've
Speaker 1: gotten in front of them. But for me, this feels
Speaker 1: a lot less lucky and more just raw skill and
Speaker 1: coach and development over the years now with Ryan Day,
Speaker 1: because yeah, it's they're so good.
Speaker 2: It's luck in the way that Ana, maybe you're this
Speaker 2: kid that in fifth grade you're like lucky you have
Speaker 2: a super Nintendo and a second Genesis. Lucky in fact,
Speaker 2: you were just an only child who loved video games
Speaker 2: and got lots of presents. I think Ohio State and
Speaker 2: again one if you want to offline about what it's
Speaker 2: like to root for a program that can beat CJ. Stroud,
Speaker 2: Garrett Wilson, Chris o'lave and Jackson Smith and Jig but
Speaker 2: we can offline about it and I can walk.
Speaker 1: You through that experience. Yeah, things are looking great for
Speaker 1: Ohio State.
Speaker 2: Next next, I just have Kansas that Jalen Daniels was
Speaker 2: slept on as a recruit.
Speaker 1: Man, He's he's an impressive kid. I don't know if
Speaker 1: you've had a chance to listen to any of his
Speaker 1: postgame stuff. But I mean, he's got a confidence about him.
Speaker 1: He believes that they're going to go out there, they're
Speaker 1: going to compete, they're going to win again, and whoever
Speaker 1: their competition is. From week to week, the offense has
Speaker 1: been objectively one of the best in the country so far. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't know if it continues, that might be a
Speaker 1: lot to ask, but it's getting to the point now
Speaker 1: where you look at Kansas and you're like, you know,
Speaker 1: pretty good they can score forty against these teams on
Speaker 1: their schedule. Yeah, there's not a lot on that schedule
Speaker 1: that that worries me about being able to hold Kansas down.
Speaker 1: So Jalen Daniels, with what he's done with the with
Speaker 1: the way that Lance Liphold has kind of built that
Speaker 1: offense around him, it doesn't what strikes me the most
Speaker 1: about it. And I was trying to put my finger
Speaker 1: on it when we went through and looked at the
Speaker 1: Duke Kansas game from a week ago. We've seen teams
Speaker 1: before that rise from the ashes and they get a
Speaker 1: couple wins and everybody feels good about it, and it
Speaker 1: feels like it's duct tape and chicken wire. Yeah, this
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like that. This feels like legitimately they're a
Speaker 1: very good offense, and that in and of itself is
Speaker 1: one of the best stories in college football.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it turns out when you hire an apt athletic
Speaker 2: director and a head coach who are legit it makes
Speaker 2: a difference. And you're not hiring less miles right sorry,
Speaker 2: like they're just when when as a university you're making
Speaker 2: decisions that's continually set the program back, and then you
Speaker 2: hire actual professionals and jobs that demand it, it makes
Speaker 2: a difference. Who could have seen that coming? And by
Speaker 2: the way, not unlucky in their results. Not that Duke
Speaker 2: is a team with a pronounced heartbeat, but West Virginia
Speaker 2: and Houston those are teams. Those are squads. Those guys
Speaker 2: have players. Those teams have players. So I'm I'm just
Speaker 2: thoroughly impressed. But yes, lucky that Jalen Daniels was not
Speaker 2: like in the last second, Oh my gosh, Texas Tech
Speaker 2: offered him, Oh my gosh, Cal offered him. Like didn't
Speaker 2: to my knowledge, receive other last minute, bigger Power five
Speaker 2: program offers because they whiffed on another quarterback target.
Speaker 1: No, Well, and so here's the question. Then if we're
Speaker 1: truly playing a game with this. A question is done
Speaker 1: the luck run out? Does the luck run out for Kansas?
Speaker 1: Because I mean, thus far see, I'm inclined to say no.
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to say no because it feels like a
Speaker 1: legitimately good offense. We also have decent data at this
Speaker 1: point on Kansas. We're getting better data on most of
Speaker 1: these other teams. But Kansas in particular played West Virginia
Speaker 1: and Houston on the road. In addition, they played Duke
Speaker 1: last week. Those are actually teams that have played, you know,
Speaker 1: decently well in some capacities so far this season. Sure,
Speaker 1: and you look at what they've done from an offensive standpoint,
Speaker 1: they've been very good. They've been very good. Now Still,
Speaker 1: I don't feel like the numbers have caught up to
Speaker 1: Kansas yet. So if you look at projections moving forward,
Speaker 1: Kansas is projected to lose every game it plays. The
Speaker 1: schedule does get harder, so it still is on the
Speaker 1: table that they could lose every game that they play
Speaker 1: and finish four and eight. I don't think that's likely.
Speaker 1: When you've got an offense like this, you'll catch teams.
Speaker 1: So Kansas potentially on the drive to six here. You
Speaker 1: know their luck might run out from the standpoint of
Speaker 1: being undefeated, but in terms of qualifying for a ball
Speaker 1: at some point between now in the end of the season.
Speaker 1: To me, with this offense, that feels totally feels likely.
Speaker 1: The first step to doing to becoming a good team
Speaker 1: is to do something well. To do something well, and
Speaker 1: what Kansas is doing through the air on offense, obviously
Speaker 1: led by Jalen Daniels. Look, if they are scoring on
Speaker 1: average and they're not going to be scoring how many
Speaker 1: points are they averaging right now? Forty some odd forty
Speaker 1: five points or something. If they're scoring thirty three points
Speaker 1: thirty seven points the rest of the way on average,
Speaker 1: which of these teams do you feel confident? Do you
Speaker 1: think Iowa State is going to be scoring well enough
Speaker 1: with Kansas again, Iowa State has a defense that's going
Speaker 1: to limit Kansas. But Texas Tech, We'll see what happens
Speaker 1: with their quarterback situation Texas. I mean, Kansas kind of
Speaker 1: owns Texas and that's not when Jalen Daniels was peaking
Speaker 1: like he seems to be doing this season. Kansas State
Speaker 1: is scoring a number of points. Good defense once again,
Speaker 1: But can you get to six wins with a pretty
Speaker 1: electric offense. I think I think he can. I think
Speaker 1: he can. All right, give me another team.
Speaker 2: All right, I have In terms of luck, I have
Speaker 2: Florida State in here now. Florida State's luck is that
Speaker 2: one LSU did not have its act together in Week
Speaker 2: one at all to do very basic things correctly i e.
Speaker 2: Catch punts, I e. Block kick kick balls without them getting.
Speaker 1: Block people trying to block the punts.
Speaker 2: Yes, right, And so it was fortunate in that they
Speaker 2: let jen Jaden Daniels excuse me an LSU back into
Speaker 2: that game and were able to win the game the
Speaker 2: man or that they did. And then also Florida State
Speaker 2: lucky in that Jordan Travis's injury wasn't worse against Louisville,
Speaker 2: that they were able to pull out that game with
Speaker 2: Tate Roamaker roda maker, Yes, and then have Jordan Travis
Speaker 2: return against a pretty woeful Boston College and the rest
Speaker 2: of their schedule. In terms of what Florida State's doing, uh,
Speaker 2: pretty decent in terms of defenses. I'm not going to
Speaker 2: say it's lucky because there are some challenges ahead, but
Speaker 2: lucky both in terms of the LSU game and the
Speaker 2: stroke of injury fortune here.
Speaker 1: I don't know here is why, and I don't think
Speaker 1: this is so much luck, but this is definitely, at best,
Speaker 1: at worst fortuitous. Let's say, yeah, okay, kind of the
Speaker 1: same thing. But the schedule before the season, when we
Speaker 1: previewed Florida State, the schedule before the season, We've looked
Speaker 1: at this and we said, we think Florida State's gonna
Speaker 1: better than they were a year ago. The schedule looks tough.
Speaker 1: Schedule looks tough for a team that was inconsistent and
Speaker 1: still growing and still almost transitioning into the Mike Norvel Era.
Speaker 1: Looks like a tough schedule where you can see four
Speaker 1: or five losses. Right. I don't think that was out
Speaker 1: of the ordinary. Things have changed very quickly. Not only
Speaker 1: did they beat LSU in week one, not only did
Speaker 1: they show a lot of fight in knocking off Louisville
Speaker 1: in the manner that they did on the road backup quarterback,
Speaker 1: but now look at the teams that they've got in
Speaker 1: front of it, particularly over the next three weeks, which
Speaker 1: is really going to be the make or break time
Speaker 1: for Florida State. Wake Forest this week, I don't know
Speaker 1: what the weather situation is going to be.
Speaker 2: Like and a letdown spot wake Forest ot lost to Clemson. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I don't know if weather's going to factor in.
Speaker 1: It looks like the Southeast is going to be a
Speaker 1: mess over the next few days. But Wake Forest at
Speaker 1: home letdown spot potentially a weird weather game that's going
Speaker 1: to be dictated on the ground. I like Florida State's
Speaker 1: chances there. I will up there. At NC State, we
Speaker 1: could talk about NC State. NC State has has I
Speaker 1: think been generally unimpressive this year compared to where we
Speaker 1: thought they might be at this point in time. NC
Speaker 1: State what a top ten team now great, by the way,
Speaker 1: after that ECU game. A lucky record right now, I
Speaker 1: mean huge, hugely lucky based in the ECU result. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you can go to n c State win. That
Speaker 1: doesn't feel as difficult. It's still a good team, doesn't
Speaker 1: feel as difficult Clemson. You could score on Clemson, you
Speaker 1: can move the you can move the ball on Clemson
Speaker 1: in a way that we did not expect.
Speaker 2: I have Clemson as lucky, lucky to get out of
Speaker 2: Winston Salem with a win with how that defense was
Speaker 2: absolutely torched. You look at Clemson you're like, all right,
Speaker 2: this is a team that is far more fallible than
Speaker 2: we expected. They've got Georgia Tech, they've got Miami on here,
Speaker 2: they've got Syracuse on here, They've got Florida on here.
Speaker 2: I can't even tell if you're saying that's a lucky
Speaker 2: thing and an unlucky thing.
Speaker 1: I'm saying, I feel like this is much more advantageous
Speaker 1: to Florida State than we initially thought. So I don't
Speaker 1: know if luck is the word. Luck feels almost like
Speaker 1: as a pejorative if I use it in conjunction with
Speaker 1: Florida State and their schedules, since they have no control
Speaker 1: over it. But things have turned in such a manner
Speaker 1: here with the schedule that it feels a lot more gettable,
Speaker 1: and I like that for Florida State. I'm feeling actually
Speaker 1: quite good about saying ten and two Florida State, Okay,
Speaker 1: fair enough.
Speaker 2: I think it's a stretch still, but yeah, for the
Speaker 2: LSU and Jordan Travis reasons, I'm in Florida State being
Speaker 2: having a stroke of luck. Also good stroke of luck Clemson.
Speaker 2: I mentioned why just getting out of Winston Salem with
Speaker 2: a win. Any other teams I'm trying to I have
Speaker 2: a list here.
Speaker 1: I think that's sort of it for me. Beyond the
Speaker 1: USC very quickly. On Clemson, I do think the luck
Speaker 1: will run out. I do think the luck will run
Speaker 1: out for Clemson before long. The fact that Clemson gave
Speaker 1: up points the way they did the wake Forest wake
Speaker 1: Forest to get a good team, legitimate capitol g good team,
Speaker 1: good offense. At least, I do think that the luck
Speaker 1: runs out for him. And I still harken back to
Speaker 1: what I've been saying the last couple of weeks. If
Speaker 1: receivers cannot get open, that's a problem. Against better defenses,
Speaker 1: that's a problem, and especially if defenses aren't going to
Speaker 1: create havoc. The way that if the Clemson defense, excuse me,
Speaker 1: is not going to create havoc, play is the way
Speaker 1: we expected, especially in that front seven. You give teams
Speaker 1: time to pick you apart against the better squads on
Speaker 1: you on your schedule, and somebody's gonna get you. Somebody
Speaker 1: is going to get you. Wake Forest came close. Wake
Speaker 1: Forest could have been that team. But there are plenty
Speaker 1: of other opportunities here on this Clemson slate where somebody
Speaker 1: could take him down. And it doesn't seem like a
Speaker 1: stretch to me, like I think, I think, really that
Speaker 1: will happen. If I had a bet on one team's
Speaker 1: luck running out, it's Clemson, because it's just you know,
Speaker 1: I like Will Shipley, I like a lot of the
Speaker 1: pieces on this team, and I'm not rooting for it openly.
Speaker 1: I don't hate Clemson. I kind of like this team.
Speaker 1: I really like Will Shipley, But I just think of
Speaker 1: receivers aren't getting open, and if the defense is not
Speaker 1: creating the kind of pressure that we had expected, that's
Speaker 1: a problem.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it might fit more under you take the good,
Speaker 2: you take the bad with Dabbo, but the Dabbo experience
Speaker 2: might be fraught with some luck and Unluckiness. That lucky
Speaker 2: that a position coach turned out to be a dominant
Speaker 2: all time modern head coach for Clemson once Tommy Bowden
Speaker 2: and that era didn't clearly weren't working out and they
Speaker 2: needed to make a change. Lucky that he was the
Speaker 2: type of coach who could make pretty great hires that
Speaker 2: both within the Clemson loop and outside of it, like
Speaker 2: Brent Vennables, and a little bit unlucky that man he's
Speaker 2: going to be loyal forever. Cool that he's loyal forever
Speaker 2: because guys want to stay there for a longer period
Speaker 2: of time. Quality assistance, and it's very attractive to recruits
Speaker 2: unlucky in that Oh another internal higher, Oh, another internal
Speaker 2: another internal higher, and so that sort of you take
Speaker 2: the good in the bat. But that's not really anything
Speaker 2: to do with this season unless it doesn't work on
Speaker 2: either side of the ball with those internal hires. You
Speaker 2: want to talk about USC and the luck factor. Explain
Speaker 2: the luck factor to me. With USC so number one
Speaker 2: in the country in terms of turnover margin, they're plus
Speaker 2: fourteen at the moment, which is well ahead of basically
Speaker 2: everybody as far as I could tell. A lot of
Speaker 2: that comes from the interceptions that have bailed out less
Speaker 2: than stellar defensive drives, especially in the red zone. They
Speaker 2: had four picks I believe against Oregon State this pack
Speaker 2: past weekend. And I also want to be quick to
Speaker 2: say interceptions are not all luck. Like, yes, it's lucky
Speaker 2: if a quarterback throws a bad pass and you're there
Speaker 2: to catch it. But also, I'm a big believer in
Speaker 2: right place, right time, and so if you are able
Speaker 2: to find yourself as a defensive back or a linebacker
Speaker 2: or whatever doing your job in the lane you're supposed
Speaker 2: to be in in the passing lane, and you pick
Speaker 2: off a quarterback that's not fully luck that it is
Speaker 2: a skill to be have situational awareness. And so USC
Speaker 2: though the manner in which that they in the manner
Speaker 2: in which they've won, they've had to rely on those turnovers.
Speaker 2: And if those are dropped passes or overthrown passes or
Speaker 2: tipped balls that fall innocently to the grass, and a
Speaker 2: team lives to play another down, we might be talking
Speaker 2: about a three on one USC or a two and
Speaker 2: two USC. Fresno State was able to move the ball
Speaker 2: against USC. Oregon State was able to fully stop basically
Speaker 2: USC's offense. And so you say Oregon State has basically
Speaker 2: the same game on offense but only throws one pick,
Speaker 2: we're probably talking about a Beaver win. But once again,
Speaker 2: USC is drafting off of the opportunity truck. I think
Speaker 2: they are a good team who is probably the seventeenth
Speaker 2: best team in the country, not the sixth best team
Speaker 2: in the country, And I think that jump has to
Speaker 2: do with luck.
Speaker 1: Do you agree?
Speaker 2: Do you think?
Speaker 1: Do you like?
Speaker 2: The other thing, though, is we're now talking about a
Speaker 2: schedule that features Utah and maybe UCLA on a great
Speaker 2: day like what is on this regular season schedule for
Speaker 2: USC that they just can't get by with maybe not
Speaker 2: as much luck, but some luck.
Speaker 1: Yeah, man, I see plus fourteen. Yeah yeah, I mean
Speaker 1: they've definitely been bullied by by by some of the turnovers, right,
Speaker 1: I mean I tend to think that teams with new
Speaker 1: coaches off and see this right there, there are these
Speaker 1: areas in the margins where you just you have some
Speaker 1: oddities that occur early on, and it's how a new
Speaker 1: coach either harnesses it or or doesn't harness it that
Speaker 1: can teach you a lot about how how their coaching
Speaker 1: style is, how the team feels about the coach. Like,
Speaker 1: you know, we saw some unlucky stuff with Brian Kelly
Speaker 1: at LSU, like it. I feel like you see this
Speaker 1: type of thing all the time with new coaches, and
Speaker 1: USC has been able to use this type of stuff
Speaker 1: to its advantage. I believe that as the season goes on,
Speaker 1: we will be talking less about luck with USC. I
Speaker 1: think as this team settles into what it will eventually
Speaker 1: become by the time we get to like the Notre
Speaker 1: Dame game Thanksgiving weekend, there will less, there will less
Speaker 1: be a luck component involved here. The question is they've
Speaker 1: got Utah in a couple of weeks on the road,
Speaker 1: and if there is any luck that is buoying USC
Speaker 1: come out, then yeah, it's gonna come out then, because
Speaker 1: Utah does not need luck to win. Utah will beat
Speaker 1: your brains in They didn't do it effectively against Florida,
Speaker 1: but they will beat your brains and they will run
Speaker 1: you to death. And they will hear brains and running
Speaker 1: you to death. That's what you talk, That's what Utah does.
Speaker 1: So what I think I'm saying here is we'll find
Speaker 1: out soon enough. If you're right. It may even be
Speaker 1: a game like a Washington State potential look ahead game
Speaker 1: the week before Utah game is in USC. But at
Speaker 1: the same time, that's a team of the good defense
Speaker 1: you saw last week, right, or at least can play
Speaker 1: good defense. So I'm I'm I'm mixed on the USC
Speaker 1: luck thing. They just have such good players that not
Speaker 1: to say that they are immune from the whole luck thing,
Speaker 1: but gosh, I.
Speaker 2: Situated Williams and Jordan Addison. It's I don't know, No,
Speaker 2: there's no luck involved with those talents. The problem is
Speaker 2: if we're talking about a top eight five type team
Speaker 2: for USC, which is where they're ranking, I think they're
Speaker 2: six in the eight. People don't have I don't memorize
Speaker 2: these things. I'm old and washed up. USC has one
Speaker 2: of the absolute worst rush defenses in the country, and
Speaker 2: they've played Fresno, Oregon State like Rice, and they haven't
Speaker 2: been protecting Caleb Williams. So we're saying, do you believe
Speaker 2: in USC as a top ten team with an abysmal
Speaker 2: rush defense and an offensive line, but pf an offensive
Speaker 2: line who in practice has not protected Caleb Williams all
Speaker 2: that effectively. They are one of the worst tackling teams
Speaker 2: in the country. Again, USC good team, not excellent team,
Speaker 2: not excellent team. And I don't know if it's Washington
Speaker 2: State because they absolutely did get gashed by Oregon. I mean,
Speaker 2: bon Nicks through for an all time high, the running
Speaker 2: backs running for seven yards of carry.
Speaker 1: They stood up in the red zone impressively.
Speaker 2: Yes, Washington State could beat USC if that game were
Speaker 2: in Pullman, I'd feel better about that potential. But no,
Speaker 2: USC still feels like a nine or ten win program,
Speaker 2: if not more. But if they have to put up
Speaker 2: against a playoff team, Like, what is Trey Henderson going
Speaker 2: to do on the ground against USC? What is Jamiir
Speaker 2: Gibbs gonna do? What is Kendall Milton gonna do? Like
Speaker 2: I've seen it up close, it's not pretty. Again, we
Speaker 2: can offline about what it's like to beat Ohio State,
Speaker 2: but I just think they are prime LRO. I just
Speaker 2: don't know when the l is going to ro. That's
Speaker 2: the question, all right, Well right in, let us know your.
Speaker 1: Thoughts and any other luck teams we missed out on.
Speaker 1: Do you want me to go through unlucky? Real quick,
Speaker 1: very quickly? Here we're coming on the edge of our time.
Speaker 2: Arkansas is the weirdest fumble and touchdown return away from
Speaker 2: A and M. I don't think they're fully unlucky because
Speaker 2: that is a play and they had opportunities. It's a play,
Speaker 2: and they had opportunities to make up for it against
Speaker 2: A and M from being you know, number seven, number
Speaker 2: six in the country. I mentioned cal with Notre Dame
Speaker 2: with the off sides call, Florida might be a little
Speaker 2: bit of both. Yeah, Florida might be a little bit
Speaker 2: lucky and unlucky lucky to get out of that Utah
Speaker 2: game with a win. Unlucky that you know, expectations were
Speaker 2: hoisted on them, and to have Tennessee and Kentucky be
Speaker 2: good in the same year doesn't happen often.
Speaker 1: No, doesn't happen often.
Speaker 2: That good LSU a little bit of both with the
Speaker 2: guys that they were able to pick up in the
Speaker 2: portal and what their SEC schedule looks like moving forward, which,
Speaker 2: by the way, a lot of SEC teams on LSU's
Speaker 2: Brian Kelly Year one slate do not look as dangerous
Speaker 2: as they did over the summer. No, I have Houston,
Speaker 2: what the hell we were supposed to expect Kansas to
Speaker 2: be lightning on offense, Texas Tech to come through with
Speaker 2: a backup quarterback like just unlucky the way that Houston
Speaker 2: has had to open up their season with. Still I
Speaker 2: believe to be a good team.
Speaker 1: A very good to you. We were talking about Houston
Speaker 1: as potentially one of those group of five teams. It
Speaker 1: sneaks into the playoff before the year, uh, Northwestern fans.
Speaker 1: The unluckiness of opening the season with, hey, maybe we're
Speaker 1: pretty decent kind of and then to lose to Miami
Speaker 1: of Ohio in southern Illinois, that is a bad beat
Speaker 1: in terms of fandom to be suddenly assured that you're
Speaker 1: going to have a pretty good team.
Speaker 2: And immediately immediately have the universe say no, well yes,
Speaker 2: are you gonna mention Miszoo and the way they lost
Speaker 2: to Auburn?
Speaker 1: That's bad?
Speaker 2: That that is a bad That is an unlucky way
Speaker 2: to lose a game. Opportunities to win elsewhere, but to
Speaker 2: miss the field goal and have Nathaniel Pete fumble millimeters
Speaker 2: it was the right call millimeters from the goal line.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that is an.
Speaker 2: Unluck But like I also don't think Missou is a
Speaker 2: program who would otherwise be seen as good if they
Speaker 2: beat Auburn. But better sure, I think that all right,
Speaker 2: I would add my team as being unlucky because when
Speaker 2: Oregon scheduled Georgia, which I presume was in like two
Speaker 2: thousand and eight, I joked with all my friends, let's.
Speaker 1: Take our kids. We're gonna be old.
Speaker 2: Let's go to Atlanta. And then to have Georgia go
Speaker 2: from being talented but disappointing to death star, that is unlucky.
Speaker 1: That is not fun. There's nothing unlucky about Georgia.
Speaker 2: Georgia is full un skilled but unlucky to have that
Speaker 2: in game one of a new coach.
Speaker 1: That's all We've had some folks watching a long courtesy
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Speaker 1: We also offer a bonus episode every Thursday morning, which
Speaker 1: you can watch live. We call it the Bruined A.
Speaker 1: We also have a Spot five live show tomorrow evening
Speaker 1: college football Thursdays. People jump up on stage with us.
Speaker 1: They talk all things college football. They pick against me
Speaker 1: last week did a little bit better than they had
Speaker 1: the previous week, So awesome for you. Rough It was
Speaker 1: a rough week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we came tie dissipated before coming ashore.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Hurricane Tie definitely took a different track last week.
Speaker 2: Yeah to say the lead downgraded to tropical storm. Now
Speaker 2: we joke about this. We hope Hurricanean is a complete
Speaker 2: disappointment for all weatherheads and it's just rainy and windy.
Speaker 1: And everybody's fine. That's all. That's what we hope. Absolutely
Speaker 1: more to come on that more to come for sure
Speaker 1: as we progress through the course of the week. Tomorrow
Speaker 1: is our week five previous show. We're into our picks,
Speaker 1: going to give our predictions, obviously going to give as
Speaker 1: much personality as we can here in the soul Uble.
Speaker 1: But yeah, tune back in, don't forget to tell your ends,
Speaker 1: make sure you subscribe to the show. And last would
Speaker 1: certainly not least if you made it this far. Solid
Speaker 1: giveaway dot com. You've got about two weeks left before
Speaker 1: we give out the c J. Stroud Mini Mini helmet.
Speaker 1: Do you think we could get and the answer is
Speaker 1: definitely yes.
Speaker 2: What was the Fordums receiver's name? Do we think we
Speaker 2: can get a Photus signed Fordam Photus Coco. I'm gonna
Speaker 2: get it wrong. I don't want to get it wrong
Speaker 2: because he was obviously excellent against Ohio. We have it
Speaker 2: somewhere in our.
Speaker 1: Chat Cocosciolas Cocoa, Ciolas coco sulis.
Speaker 2: I think Motus cocosulus I would put that right here.
Speaker 2: You see, if you're watching this live on Forballers dot
Speaker 2: com I would put a mini helmet right I got
Speaker 2: the little d'ad de loos Morito skulls from Trader Joe's.
Speaker 2: I'd put it right there. Prominently featured assigned for a
Speaker 2: mini helmet from Focus. Coco soulis happy to pay.
Speaker 1: I'll see how I can find it. I'll see if
Speaker 1: I can find it. I don't see it yet, I
Speaker 1: we'll look. Yeah. Fun show. Thank you to one and
Speaker 1: all for downloading, for listening, for playing along at home.
Speaker 1: Will be back again tomorrow talk about all things week five.
Speaker 1: In the meantime for that guy over there, Dan Rubinstein
Speaker 1: from myself, Tie Hildon Brandt. As per usual, Stay solid, Peace,