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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 1: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 1: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com.

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Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 1: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 1: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. I have an

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Speaker 1: amazing show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal,

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Speaker 1: Indeed we do.

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Speaker 2: John Meerscheimer going to join us this morning to talk

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Speaker 2: both about Iran. We have some new developments this morning.

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Speaker 2: President Trump says that support for Iran is a humanitarian mission.

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Speaker 2: That's the note he's founding this morning, so we'll get

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Speaker 2: his reaction everything that's developed. We also wanted to do

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Speaker 2: a deep dive again into what is going on with

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Speaker 2: Ukraine and Russia as that conflict continues to get more

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Speaker 2: dangerous with Ukraine striking more and more aggressively inside of

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Speaker 2: Russian Tia territory and really going after the oil and

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Speaker 2: gas facilities.

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Speaker 3: So interested to get his take on that.

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Speaker 2: We're also taking a look at the Republican Party how

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Speaker 2: things are going overall for the Trump administration, as Tucker

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Speaker 2: Carlson says that he has done with the Republican Party,

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Speaker 2: done voting for Republicans, So kind of an interesting moment

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Speaker 2: given that he has been one of their top backers

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Speaker 2: for years and years and years, So very interesting when

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Speaker 2: to dig into that. We also have some new numbers

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Speaker 2: on housing. It's not just the price the ticket price

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Speaker 2: of the house that is too expensive, it is everything

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Speaker 2: that comes along with that, down to the HOA fees

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Speaker 2: that has gotten astronomically more expensive over the past several years,

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Speaker 2: and analysts are saying it may never go back to

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Speaker 2: the level of affordability that we once enjoyed. And both

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Speaker 2: the guys from the Blowback Pod are going to join us.

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Speaker 2: Their latest special series is about our very special relationship

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Speaker 2: with Israel, going back to the founding of that nation

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Speaker 2: and the way that that relationship has changed and evolved

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Speaker 2: over time. So really interesting deep dive that they're doing.

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Speaker 2: Will ask of about some modern developments as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm excited to talk to them. You know, all

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Speaker 1: that history with Truman and his haberdash Tree partner and

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Speaker 1: all that we can talk about that for ages. Thank

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Speaker 1: you to everybody who's been subscribing the show Breakingpoints dot Com.

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Speaker 1: We're doing our live ama for our premium subscribers, so

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Speaker 1: get in on that Breakingpoints dot Com. You can support

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Speaker 1: our work. If you're watching this on YouTube, please hit

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Speaker 1: subscribe to our YouTube channel. Listen to this podcast, Please

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Speaker 1: But as Crystal just laid out, we've got the great

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Speaker 1: Professor John Meiherscheimer standing by to help us break down

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Speaker 1: the ongoing situation with Iron. Let's get to it. Joining

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Speaker 1: us now, our great friend of the show, Professor John

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Speaker 1: Meiherscheimer of the University of Chicago. It's good to see you, sir.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for joining us.

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Speaker 4: It's good to be here as always.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely all right, So we're going to start with some

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Speaker 1: breaking news from President Trump reacting to a lot of

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Speaker 1: the neo conservative criticism for allowing Treasury, allowing the Treasury

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Speaker 1: Department to lift sanctions on Iranian oil. We'll dig some

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Speaker 1: of that lately, but let's put a six up here

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Speaker 1: on the screen. The President's saying that despite Iranian denials

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Speaker 1: that they have agreed to the quote highest level of

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Speaker 1: nuclear inspections long into the future of infinity. He says,

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Speaker 1: I have agreed to allow the hormone straight to remain open,

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Speaker 1: and that the money in or sanctions that the Treasury

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Speaker 1: is releasing will go into escrow, will be used for

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Speaker 1: the purchase of food and medical supplies from the United States,

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Speaker 1: including corn, wheat, soybeans, because these are desperately needed by

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Speaker 1: Iran and it's a humanitarian crisis and he feels it

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Speaker 1: necessary to help them. Now, what do you make here

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Speaker 1: of the President trying to navigate many of these more

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Speaker 1: recent Iranian denials that they actually will allow nuclear inspectors

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Speaker 1: into their country despite the fact that the United States

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Speaker 1: did a significantly lift all of their sanctions on current

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Speaker 1: Iranian oil.

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Speaker 4: Well, the deal has always said that the nuclear issue

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Speaker 4: would be dealt with later rather than sooner, so there

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Speaker 4: have been no agreements on the nuclear dimension of this

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Speaker 4: memorandum that comes later. I would imagine that the Iranians

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Speaker 4: will be quite accommodating on the nuclear issue because that

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Speaker 4: will allow them to benefit on all sorts of other issues.

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Speaker 4: But I think the President Trump's comments are sort of premature,

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Speaker 4: and I think what's going on here is he's trying

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Speaker 4: to put lipstick on a pig. The fact is that

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Speaker 4: the United States has lost this war, and if you

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Speaker 4: look at the deal that's on the table and where

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Speaker 4: we're headed, it's clear that the Iranians have won, and

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Speaker 4: for President Trump to admit that is well nigh impossible.

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Speaker 4: So what he's trying to do is prove he's a

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Speaker 4: tough guy and we're going to get our way on

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Speaker 4: a lot of key issues, and we should expect more

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Speaker 4: of that moving forward. But the fact is that if

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Speaker 4: we get a deal, the outlines of that deal at

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Speaker 4: this point in time are very clear.

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Speaker 2: Professor, what are the indications that you're looking at to

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Speaker 2: determine how likely it is that we actually are able

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Speaker 2: to come to some sort of an agreement here after

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Speaker 2: the sixty day period, Well.

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Speaker 4: All you have to do is look at the state

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Speaker 4: of the international economy, and you have to look at

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Speaker 4: what's happening to our petroleum reserves in the United States.

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Speaker 4: The President has made this clear himself. He has said

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Speaker 4: that we are facing quote unquote and economic catastrophe if

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Speaker 4: we don't shut this war down. He's explicitly said that

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Speaker 4: he doesn't want to be Herbert Hoover the second he

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Speaker 4: fully understands that this war just has to be shut down.

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Speaker 4: There's a set of economic imperatives at play here. You know,

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Speaker 4: you want to ask yourself, why is it that President

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Speaker 4: Trump is willing to sign on to an agreement where

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Speaker 4: we lose on almost every count and the Iranians went

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Speaker 4: on almost every count. They come out of this agreement

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Speaker 4: much better off than they were going into the war.

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Speaker 4: Why did this happen? And the answer is the international economy.

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Speaker 4: And to take it a step further, if you look

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Speaker 4: at the conflict that's now taking place between the United

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Speaker 4: States and Israel, mainly over southern Lebanon, it's quite clear

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Speaker 4: that what has caused President Trump, for the first time

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Speaker 4: in his presidency, to play real hardball with the Israelis

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Speaker 4: is the fact that he's staring an economic catastrophe in

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Speaker 4: the face and he wants to avoid that at all costs.

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Speaker 4: And in those circumstances, he's willing to be really tough

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Speaker 4: with the Israelis.

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Speaker 1: Right and Sir, one of the interesting things is that

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Speaker 1: the Vice President and the United States is taking an

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Speaker 1: extraordinary amount, really of you know, pushback from the Iranians.

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Speaker 1: Here's the Vice President speaking yesterday on the tarmac in

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Speaker 1: Geneva about the you know, Iranians supposedly walking out and

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Speaker 1: then coming back in a lot of symbology. Let's take

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Speaker 1: a listen.

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Speaker 5: I've spent a lot of time dealing with the Iranians

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Speaker 5: over the last few months. Sometimes I find them extremely

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Speaker 5: confusing as negotiators. But look, we had a little press conference.

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Speaker 5: They obviously don't find out the same First Amendment protections

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Speaker 5: in areas that we have in the United States of America.

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Speaker 1: We talked to you guys, and then had a series

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Speaker 1: of really good meetings.

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Speaker 5: What I did find kind of funny is that after

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Speaker 5: that initial meeting, there was this, you know, sort of

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Speaker 5: social media firestorm where everybody said, the Iranians are going

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Speaker 5: to leave, and then we proceeded to talk to them

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Speaker 5: for like the next nine hours. So I would just

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Speaker 5: encourage the media mistrust a little bit. What you see

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Speaker 5: coming out of Iranian social media. They could be confusing negotiators,

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Speaker 5: but we feel like we're making progress.

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Speaker 1: There seems to be is just consistent downplaying of any

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Speaker 1: Iranian you know, pushback or any Iranian snub intended towards

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Speaker 1: the United States, which is just extraordinary and part of

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Speaker 1: what's sending many of these new conservatives into a full

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Speaker 1: bone freak out here.

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Speaker 4: Sir, Well, Vance understands much like Trump, that we just

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Speaker 4: have to get a deal. And Vance is the point

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Speaker 4: man here, and I think that we should all hope

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Speaker 4: that Vance succeeds and that Trump succeeds. I mean, we've

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Speaker 4: all been extremely critical and I'm choosing my words carefully here.

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Speaker 4: We've been extremely critical of the decision to launch this

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Speaker 4: war and wage it the way we did up to now.

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Speaker 4: It was a huge mistake. But the president and the

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Speaker 4: Vice president fully recognized the error of their ways, and

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Speaker 4: they're trying to repair the problem and fix this before

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Speaker 4: the international economy goes off a cliff. And I applaud

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Speaker 4: them for that, and I just hope that they solved

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Speaker 4: the problem. If they don't solve the problem and we

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Speaker 4: enter into a great depression like the one we had,

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Speaker 4: in the nineteen thirties. The economic consequences of this will

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Speaker 4: be huge, especially around the world in poor countries. Lots

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Speaker 4: of people will die, and it'll have devastating consequences for

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Speaker 4: the American economy, and none of us want that. So

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Speaker 4: we should hope, in my opinion, that Trump and Vance,

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Speaker 4: who have now reverse direction, are able to shut this

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Speaker 4: one down. It's obviously going to be a messy process.

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Speaker 4: How could it be otherwise When you're involved with President Trump,

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Speaker 4: who shooting off all these tweets that say outrageous things

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Speaker 4: from time to time, He'll make it as messy as

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Speaker 4: he possibly can. But I think in the end, we

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Speaker 4: have an imperative to shut this one down, and I

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Speaker 4: think the Iranians also have an imperative to shut this

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Speaker 4: one down. And I think there's a good chance. One

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Speaker 4: wouldn't want to say it's one hundred percent guaranteed by

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Speaker 4: any means, but I think we do have a good

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Speaker 4: chance of coming up with some sort of meaningful settlement

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Speaker 4: to this war.

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Speaker 2: Professor Israel is very, very, very unhappy that there are

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Speaker 2: talks going on at all, that there's even a possibility

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Speaker 2: of a negotiated settlement along the lines of what is

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Speaker 2: being contemplated. What is your response to people who would

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Speaker 2: say to you, and being to Sager, you people say

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Speaker 2: that the Israel lobby controls everything, and we're just there,

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Speaker 2: you know, their puppets. And here you have Trump going

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Speaker 2: directly against what Israeli's one over their vociferous objections, creating

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Speaker 2: a complete political crisis for Netnyahu in an existential crisis

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Speaker 2: for the Israeli state as a whole. Weren't you wrong

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Speaker 2: about your assessment of how much influence the Israel lobby

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Speaker 2: has in the United States?

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Speaker 4: Up until very recently, There's no question that the lobby

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Speaker 4: had a lat hold on US Middle East policy, There's

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Speaker 4: no question about that. But what has changed here is

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Speaker 4: that we got into this war, and it's quite clear

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Speaker 4: that as a result of the war and what Iran

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Speaker 4: has done in terms of shutting down the strait of

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Speaker 4: horror moves, that they have the ability to wreck the

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Speaker 4: international economy, and that is a threat. It is so

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Speaker 4: great that for the first time in President Trump's second

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Speaker 4: and first term in office, and for the first time

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Speaker 4: in any recent president's experience, we are seeing a president

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Speaker 4: really bring down the hammer on the Israelis and I

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Speaker 4: would imagine that as we move forward and it becomes

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Speaker 4: clearer and clearer that this one has to be shut

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Speaker 4: down for economic reasons, President Trump and Vice President Vance

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Speaker 4: will go to even greater lengths to be tough on

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Speaker 4: the Israelis. So this is an anomalous situation, and it's

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Speaker 4: caused by extraordinary circumstances, in particular the threat of a

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Speaker 4: great depression.

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Speaker 1: Something that we think is absolutely fascinating here was throughout

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Speaker 1: the war it became very clear about the role of

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Speaker 1: the US dollar throughout this petro dollar, of course, has

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Speaker 1: always been a long subject of analysis and of explanation. However,

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Speaker 1: we also saw that China and Iran, you know ya,

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Speaker 1: use of crypto or denominating these tolls that they were

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Speaker 1: charging in the middle of the war were able to

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Speaker 1: bring them some revenue. The recent clues in the US

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Speaker 1: Treasury sanctions let's put a three up here on the screen,

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Speaker 1: seem like a clawback at trying to have at least

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Speaker 1: some of the dominance that we previously had before the war.

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Speaker 1: Where the most recent interesting part of the primary sanctions

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Speaker 1: relief actually allows Iran not only to sell its oil,

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Speaker 1: but to actually allow those settlement of transactions in dollars.

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Speaker 1: It means that Chinese buyers could pay Iran in dollars.

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Speaker 1: It also even means that American refineries could buy any

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Speaker 1: Iranian petrochemical products. What do you make here of the

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Speaker 1: US attempt to try and to reverse some of the

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Speaker 1: damage to the global oil market and what Iran revealed

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Speaker 1: about US sanctions throughout this entire war.

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Speaker 4: Well, first of all, you want to remember that at

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Speaker 4: the start of this war, when the bombing campaign was

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Speaker 4: taking place, we were allowing Iranian tankers to come out

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Speaker 4: of the golf and sell their oil on global markets.

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Speaker 4: And the reason is quite straightforward. We needed all the

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Speaker 4: oil we could get on global markets and it wasn't

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Speaker 4: until President Trump put the blockade on the Strait that

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Speaker 4: we cut off in large part, the flow of Iranian

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Speaker 4: oil into global markets. Now, what's different here is that

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Speaker 4: they can sell those barrels of oil in dollars, and

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Speaker 4: that's different. And the question you want to ask yourself

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Speaker 4: is why is President Trump doing this? And the answer is,

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Speaker 4: in large part because Iran won the war and this

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Speaker 4: is one of their demands. We simply have no choice

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Speaker 4: if we want to shut this war down. The Iranians

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Speaker 4: have made a number of demands. It's quite amazing how

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Speaker 4: many demands they've made that we have agreed to, and

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Speaker 4: this is one of them. But furthermore, this works to

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Speaker 4: our advantage because it gets more oil out into global

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Speaker 4: markets and it keeps the price of oil down. So

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Speaker 4: that's a good thing.

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Speaker 2: So let's say that the negotiations proceed, that the Trump

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Speaker 2: Adminstation illustration and the Iranians are both committed to coming

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Speaker 2: to some sort of a resolution year What would that

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Speaker 2: deal mean for Israel? How would it impact their current orientation,

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Speaker 2: how would they have to change the way that they've

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Speaker 2: been operating.

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Speaker 4: Well, I would make two points here. First of all, overall,

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Speaker 4: the deal is a disaster for Israel. This is widely

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Speaker 4: recognized in Israel. And the fact is that Israel thought

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Speaker 4: that Iran was its gravest enemy and that this war

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Speaker 4: would put an end to Iran's nuclear program. It would

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Speaker 4: end nuclear and Richmond, it would greatly weaken Iran, and

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Speaker 4: it would put Israel in a catbird seat in the

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Speaker 4: Middle East. That is obviously not happened. Iran is going

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Speaker 4: to emerge from this war in much better shape than

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Speaker 4: it was on February twenty seventh, the day before the

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Speaker 4: war started. So this is overall a strategic disaster for Israel.

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Speaker 4: Then you get to the particular issue of Lebanon, and

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Speaker 4: the Israelis want the freedom to number one, keep their

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Speaker 4: forces in southern Lebanon, which they're now occupying. Number two,

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Speaker 4: have the freedom to bomb Lebanon whenever they see fit.

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Speaker 4: And the Iranians have told us, you have to get

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Speaker 4: the Israelis completely out of southern Lebanon, and you have

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Speaker 4: to put an end to their bombing of Lebanon. If

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Speaker 4: we succeed in doing that, that would be a devastating

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Speaker 4: defeat for the Israelis, and they talk about that all

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Speaker 4: the time in their press. So it's quite clear that

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Speaker 4: this war and the agreement that we reach with the

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Speaker 4: Iranians to end this war could have devastating consequences, not

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Speaker 4: just across the board, but in particular on the issue

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Speaker 4: of Lebanon.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, ZOOMI answer. You know something I really saw was

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Speaker 1: part of the reason why this seems such a disaster

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Speaker 1: for israel Is. It fundamentally just destroys their primary ambition,

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Speaker 1: which is to be the sole regional hegemon. If you

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Speaker 1: have Iran, which is unsanctioned and does receive this three

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Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars in funds, some one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: billion of which is already Theirs, in addition to tens

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Speaker 1: of billions of dollars a month from the sale of oil.

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Speaker 1: It's GDP per capita I checked in twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: a rump economy heavily sanctioned was four hundred and thirty

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Speaker 1: seven billion, only one hundred billion or so total off

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Speaker 1: of Israel. A reconstructed Iran which is allowed to sell

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Speaker 1: oil on the global market with some significant investment, ninety

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Speaker 1: million people could easily surpass Israel in a matter of

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Speaker 1: a decade, and in multiple decades could become a regional

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Speaker 1: superpower in its own right. How do you think that

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Speaker 1: that will shift the global balance of power whenever it

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Speaker 1: comes to the Middle East, let's say, with China, with India,

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Speaker 1: many of these other nations which are just balancing these

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Speaker 1: things on its face, and they don't have their own

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Speaker 1: neo conservative lobbies.

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Speaker 4: Well, if you look at the principal indicators of latent power,

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Speaker 4: and here we're talking about population size and wealth. The

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Speaker 4: Iranians have about ninety three million people, and I would

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Speaker 4: estimate that they're about seven point three million Israeli Jews.

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Speaker 4: They are also about seven point three million Palestinians inside

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Speaker 4: Greater Israel, But even if you add them into the mix,

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Speaker 4: that's still about fourteen point six million people, and that's

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Speaker 4: a lot smaller than ninety three million. And then if

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Speaker 4: you look at the human capital in Iran, which is

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Speaker 4: a really good indicator of their potential for generating wealth,

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Speaker 4: they have very impressive human capital. So there's no question

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Speaker 4: that this is a country with a very large population

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Speaker 4: and the capability to generate a lot of wealth, and

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Speaker 4: it would, in the end, I think, be much more

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Speaker 4: powerful than Israel would be I think from Israel's point

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Speaker 4: of view, And if you listen to the Israelis talk,

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Speaker 4: this is quite clear. The two countries they worry the

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Speaker 4: most about are Turkey and Iran, because they both have

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Speaker 4: large populations and they have impressive amounts of human capital.

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Speaker 4: So the idea that Israel's going to become a regional

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Speaker 4: hegemon in the Middle East begins to look like a

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Speaker 4: flawed argument when you take into account Iran and Turkey.

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Speaker 4: But I would also add to this, if you look

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Speaker 4: at what's happened to Israel since October seventh. Israel is

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Speaker 4: a big mess today. They did not defeat Hesbelah, Hesblas

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Speaker 4: really giving them fits in southern Lebanon, and Hezbola is

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Speaker 4: not going to be knocked out. It's going to be

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Speaker 4: a perennial foe. Furthermore, they did not defeat Hamas. They

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Speaker 4: inflicted enormous pain on Hamas. But Hamas is still in

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Speaker 4: the fight in a major way. They're in a mess

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Speaker 4: in the West Bank, They're in a mess in Syria.

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Speaker 4: And if you look at what's happening in terms of

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Speaker 4: all the centrifugal forces that are at play inside of Israel,

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Speaker 4: it looks like a very depressing picture from an Israeli

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Speaker 4: point of view. So Israel today is in really terrible shape.

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Speaker 4: Putting aside the whole question of the future vis a

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Speaker 4: v Iran and Turkey.

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Speaker 1: And last thing here on the Iran section with Turkey,

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Speaker 1: let's put a five up here. It does appear the

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Speaker 1: Israelis are now making it an overt threat towards the

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Speaker 1: nation of Turkey. Here's their Foreign Ministry saying just yesterday,

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Speaker 1: Hamas terrorists based in Turkey are directing attacks against Israeli's

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Speaker 1: funding terrorism recruiting operatives. The network is exposed and the

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Speaker 1: facts are clear. So it appears that Turkey will be

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Speaker 1: the new front in the greater Israel project. What is

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Speaker 1: it about their overt targeting here of Turkey? Do they

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Speaker 1: just have no disregard for NATO? Do they just not care?

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Speaker 1: Do they think ultimately the United States will come to

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Speaker 1: their defense here against Turkey? I mean, what makes them

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Speaker 1: even think that they could utter something like this when

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Speaker 1: Turkey is itself a NATO power.

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Speaker 4: Well, the Israelis, in terms of their overall grand strategy,

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Speaker 4: have a number of goals. I mean, obviously they want

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Speaker 4: a greater Israel. They obviously want to ethnically cleanse the

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Speaker 4: Palestinians from inside that greater Israel. But another one of

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Speaker 4: their goals is to weaken all of the neighbors to

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Speaker 4: the point where none of them have any meaningful capability

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Speaker 4: to attack Israel. They've already done this with Jordan and

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Speaker 4: with Egypt, and in a very important way, this is

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Speaker 4: what happened with Syria, and their hope with regard to

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Speaker 4: Iran was to do the same thing, as we've talked

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Speaker 4: about before on the show. Their overall goal in Iran

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Speaker 4: was to wreck Iran, to turn it into the second

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Speaker 4: Coming of Syria, and what they'd like to do is

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Speaker 4: the same thing with Turkey. One of the reasons these

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Speaker 4: rare have always been very interested in creating a Kurdish state.

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Speaker 4: I remember when I first used to hear the Israelis

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Speaker 4: talking about creating a Kurdish state. I couldn't understand why

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Speaker 4: they were so interested in doing that. Well, huge chunks

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Speaker 4: of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria have a large Kurdish population.

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Speaker 4: And if you create a Kurdish state, you break up Turkey, Syria,

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Speaker 4: Iraq and Iran. And that explains why the Israelis want

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Speaker 4: a Kurdish state. In other words, what I'm saying here

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Speaker 4: is they want to do everything possible to weaken all

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Speaker 4: of their neighbors, but especially countries like Turkey and Iran,

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Speaker 4: as we were saying before, which have so much latent power.

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Speaker 2: Well, since we're talking about a NATO member here, let's

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Speaker 2: go ahead and turn to some more NATO oriented conversation

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Speaker 2: with regard to Ukraine and Russia. There has been a

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Speaker 2: lot going on there. I think it's becoming very dangerous.

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Speaker 2: You've been sounding the alarms, so we wanted to get

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Speaker 2: you in to give us an update on how you

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Speaker 2: think this is all going. There were some stunning images

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Speaker 2: from last week. A Ukrainian attack in Russia. We can

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Speaker 2: put this up on.

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Speaker 3: The screen created this explosion.

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Speaker 2: Now, I think this was actually a Russian missile interceptor

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Speaker 2: that actually caused this oil tank lid to be blown

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Speaker 2: high into the sky, but it is emblematic of the

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Speaker 2: more aggressive approach that Ukraine has been taking, and also

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Speaker 2: they have been intentionally targeting Russian oil and gas infrastructure. So, professor,

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Speaker 2: could you just bring us up to speed on the

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Speaker 2: state of play here and what the Ukrainian tactics have

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Speaker 2: been aimed at.

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Speaker 4: Well, at a very general level, the Russians feel, almost

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Speaker 4: to a person, that the Ukrainians and their supporters in

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Speaker 4: Europe and even the United States don't respect Russian red lines,

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Speaker 4: they don't respect the fact that Russia is a nuclear power,

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Speaker 4: and the Ukrainian with support, especially from the Europeans, think

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Speaker 4: they can launch large scale attacks into Mother Russia and

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Speaker 4: do damage on the scale that was reflected in the

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Speaker 4: picture that you just had on the screen. And the

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Speaker 4: Russians are deeply frustrated by this. They want to establish

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Speaker 4: some red lines. And there are lots of people inside

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Speaker 4: of Russia who think that Putin has not been aggressive

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Speaker 4: enough in waging this war, and that moreover the time

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Speaker 4: has come for the Russians to put down some markers,

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Speaker 4: to make it clear to the Ukrainians and to the

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Speaker 4: Europeans that they cannot continue to bomb Mother Russia. But

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Speaker 4: more importantly, they cannot escalate the bombing. I think the

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Speaker 4: Russians are not simply worried about what's going on today.

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Speaker 4: They are worried that the scale of the attacks will

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Speaker 4: go up and up and up. And if you listen

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Speaker 4: to the Europeans and the Ukrainians talk, there is good

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Speaker 4: reason for the Russians to think that these attacks will

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Speaker 4: become more severe over time. So the Russians say enough

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Speaker 4: is enough. So there is a large amount, maybe a

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Speaker 4: huge amount of talk inside of Russia about how to

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Speaker 4: end this. And the strategy that most people talk about

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Speaker 4: is launching conventional attacks against European countries or against NATO countries,

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Speaker 4: attacking maybe the Baltic States or Romania or Poland with

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Speaker 4: conventional forces to send a very powerful signal to the

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Speaker 4: Ukrainians and to the West that this has got to stop.

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Speaker 4: And if it doesn't stop, the Russians say that maybe

439
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 4: what we have to do then is use a handful

440
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:55,119
Speaker 4: of nuclear weapons against a European country. And I've talked

441
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:57,959
Speaker 4: to a number of Russians on this issue, and they believe,

442
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 4: and I think it's quite correct, that if they were

443
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 4: to launch a nuclear weapon or two or three into

444
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 4: Eastern Europe, that NATO would not attack Russia with its

445
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,720
Speaker 4: own nuclear weapons. In other words, they think they could

446
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 4: get away with it. But the important point here is

447
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 4: that from their perspective, and here I'm talking about the

448
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 4: Russian perspective, they think that they would establish deterrence, they

449
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:28,880
Speaker 4: would deter future major attacks on Mother Russia. And they

450
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,200
Speaker 4: think if they don't do this, if they don't take

451
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:34,919
Speaker 4: these drastic measures, and when I just described they're surely

452
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 4: drastic measures, that what will happen here is that the Ukrainians,

453
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 4: with full support from the Europeans and even the Americans,

454
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 4: will continue to up the anthe in their bombing campaign

455
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 4: against Russia.

456
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,000
Speaker 1: The professor, let's stress test the Ukrainian theory. So let's

457
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 1: put B two up here on the screen. You know

458
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,439
Speaker 1: you were first and foremost with a major one to

459
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 1: highlight just the Ukrainian ability to actually thwart Russian ground

460
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 1: attacks has never really existed. It has been frozen. Now

461
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 1: on the front line, they continue to lose a war

462
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 1: of attrition. So now they've escalated to this cruise, missile

463
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 1: and drone strategy, largely attacking critical infrastructure. Lis we just

464
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,840
Speaker 1: showed you Ukrainian attacks have dropped Russian oil percent output

465
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 1: by about ten percent or so. I believe they just

466
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: hit Crimea yesterday, took out almost half the energy inside

467
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:25,679
Speaker 1: of Crimea. Their theory is to emserate the Russian population,

468
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 1: to force the Russian population to bring the Kremlin to

469
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 1: make sure that the war will end on favorable terms. Actually,

470
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 1: in somewhat ways, it's similar to how the Iranians achieved victory.

471
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 1: They attacked oil infrastructure, they drove oil prices up here

472
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 1: at home, and Americans said enough with democratic pressure. Why

473
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 1: is that theory incorrect on the Ukrainian side.

474
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 4: Well, in terms of the Iranians, their magic weapon or

475
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 4: their magic formula for victory was closing down the Strait.

476
00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 4: There's no question that their ability to use Uranian missiles

477
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 4: to hit targets in the Gulf States and in Israel,

478
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 4: and to hit American bases in the region did matter.

479
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 4: But their magic weapon was economic in nature. Here's the

480
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,800
Speaker 4: way to think about this. We've been watching the war

481
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 4: between Russia and Ukraine for over four years now, we're

482
00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,399
Speaker 4: into the fifth year of this war, and as you

483
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:29,600
Speaker 4: well know, the Russians have been pounding the Ukrainians with

484
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 4: air power at a much greater level than the Ukrainians

485
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 4: have been pounding Russia. You remember all the damage that

486
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:44,760
Speaker 4: the Russians have done to the Ukrainian grid, their electric

487
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 4: grid over the past two years, and the negative consequences

488
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 4: of that quite great. But there is no evidence that

489
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 4: that has caused the Ukrainians to throw up their hands

490
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 4: and surrender. And there is absolutely no reason, given the

491
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 4: historical record, to think that these attacks will cause the

492
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 4: Russians to surrender, or, to put it in slightly different terms,

493
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 4: will affect events on the battlefield. Where the Russians are

494
00:28:16,960 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 4: on the march and continuing to win victories slowly but steadily.

495
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 4: The bombing campaign is not going to reverse that. The

496
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 4: great danger, however, we were just talking about a minute ago,

497
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 4: is that this bombing campaign will lead the Russians to

498
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:39,720
Speaker 4: attack into Europe because they will become so desperate to

499
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 4: put an end to those attacks.

500
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about the Trump administration's approach.

501
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 2: We can put this this final tear sheet be three

502
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 2: up on the screen here. This is an analysis of

503
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,239
Speaker 2: what he had to say at the G seven with

504
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 2: regard to Russia and Ukraine. Apparently, he told a press

505
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 2: conference Russia was losing more souls the Ukraine in the war,

506
00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 2: described Moscow as the offensive party in the conflict. Zelenski's

507
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,640
Speaker 2: goal there was to convince Trump and others that Ukrainian's

508
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 2: battlefield position had improved, that they were making gains, that

509
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 2: this was not a lost cause. Trump showed a quote

510
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 2: real change in approach regarding the Ukraine War, According to

511
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 2: French President Emanuel Macron in comments earlier in the day,

512
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 2: other European leaders made similar comments. So I wonder if

513
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 2: you think anything significant came out of the G seven

514
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 2: and what you think the Trump administration might do going forward.

515
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,720
Speaker 4: Just with regard to President Trump's rhetoric, as you know,

516
00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:37,719
Speaker 4: it changes from day to day, Yes, on almost every issue,

517
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 4: So you can never put too much stock in anything

518
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 4: he says at one point in time, the biggest problem

519
00:29:43,080 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 4: that Trump faces, even if he wants to help the Iranians,

520
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:52,160
Speaker 4: is that we've expended so many munitions in fighting the

521
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 4: Iranians that we just don't have the weaponry to give

522
00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 4: to Ukraine even if we wanted to. It's quite clear

523
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 4: and the New York Times had a big peace on

524
00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 4: this that Ukraine is desperate from more Pack three missiles.

525
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 4: These are the patriot missiles to knock down incoming ballistic missiles,

526
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 4: cruise missiles and drones from Russia. And we just have

527
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 4: no patriots that we can give them. And it's true

528
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 4: of almost all of the weapons in our inventory. We

529
00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 4: just used up so many weapons in this fight against

530
00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 4: the Iranians, and we have needs all over the world,

531
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 4: especially in East Asia when you're talking about containing China.

532
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 4: So President Trump is just not in a position to

533
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 4: really help Ukraine in any meaningful way. But the more

534
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:51,120
Speaker 4: important point is Ukraine, despite the rhetoric in the West,

535
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 4: is losing on the battlefield. It won't be long before

536
00:30:56,120 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 4: the Russians control all of the Donbass, and I believe

537
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 4: they will eventually control all of those four oh blosts

538
00:31:04,560 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 4: that they have annex and I wouldn't be sure if

539
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 4: they even a next more territory. There's no question that

540
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:14,719
Speaker 4: Ukrainian drones have slowed down Russian progress on the battlefield,

541
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 4: but Russian progress is being made and the Russians are

542
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:19,760
Speaker 4: going to win this war.

543
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 1: My last question actually sticks with the munitions points, actually

544
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 1: ties in with the Iran situation as well. Ray Dalio's

545
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 1: out with a new essay this morning, and he points

546
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:32,960
Speaker 1: specifically he's just spent a month in Asia where Chinese

547
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 1: war planners, intellectuals, leaders, and others have been observing both

548
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 1: the situation in Ukraine and the situation now with happened

549
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 1: with Iran. Iran was the breaking point, but Ukraine kind

550
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 1: of showed the roadmap here to the munitions point. They

551
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: really do view now the United States, both the population

552
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 1: and its defense industrial base as a second rate in

553
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 1: its ability to produce at a level in which the

554
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 1: US population does not one hundred support one hundred percent

555
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 1: support a war. What do you think that that means

556
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 1: for both Iran and Ukraine in these two situations just

557
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:07,479
Speaker 1: in the last decade, for what the future holds in Asia.

558
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 4: Well, first of all, we learned from the Ukraine War

559
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 4: that if you're going to wage a large scale conventional

560
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:18,080
Speaker 4: war over a long period of time, you need a

561
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 4: significant industrial base. The Russians have that we do not.

562
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 4: Just very important to understand, we do not have an

563
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 4: impressive industrial base that can pump out the weaponry that's

564
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,920
Speaker 4: necessary to fight a protracted war of attrition. If you

565
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 4: go to East Asia and you look at China's capability

566
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 4: on this front versus affront, the Chinese have an impressive

567
00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 4: capability to pump out weaponry over a long period of

568
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 4: time and to wage to protracted war of attrition, and

569
00:32:50,920 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 4: we don't. So we're in deep trouble to begin with. Second,

570
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 4: as a result of the Iran War, during the course

571
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 4: of the fight, pivoted away from Asia. You remember, starting

572
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:06,959
Speaker 4: with Hillary Clinton's announcement in twenty eleven that we were

573
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,719
Speaker 4: going to pivot to Asia. We were heading in that

574
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 4: direction up until the Iran War. Well, once the Iran

575
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 4: War started, we pivoted away from Asia. We moved Patriot missiles,

576
00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 4: we moved THAD missiles, we moved a marine expeditionary unit

577
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 4: all out of East Asia to the Middle East. This

578
00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:32,680
Speaker 4: weakened their position in East Asia. So if you look

579
00:33:32,720 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 4: at arability to contain China, our ability to deter the

580
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:41,040
Speaker 4: Chinese from taking Taiwan or trying to take over the

581
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 4: South China Sea. We are not in an ideal position

582
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 4: by any means because of number one, the state of

583
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 4: our industrial base, and number two because of this foolish

584
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 4: Iranian war.

585
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 2: Last one for me, just I'd love for you to

586
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 2: play out the sort of Russian logic that is being

587
00:33:58,440 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 2: debated internally right now. Let's say that they do decide

588
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:06,240
Speaker 2: to strike within Europe using conventional weapons. How do you

589
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 2: think that will be perceived by the Europeans? How do

590
00:34:08,239 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 2: you think that they will respond? How do you think

591
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,080
Speaker 2: the West will respond. Do you buy into the Russian

592
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 2: logic that this will help to establish a deterrence or

593
00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:17,799
Speaker 2: do you think it will lead to a further and

594
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 2: even more dangerous escalation.

595
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 4: Well, you have to distinguish between the Russians using conventional

596
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,719
Speaker 4: weapons and nuclear weapons. I think if they were to

597
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 4: attack with conventional weapons, we would have a powerful incentive

598
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:38,359
Speaker 4: we meaning the West, to retaliate with conventional weapons. I'm

599
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 4: not saying we would axiomatically do that, because there would

600
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:44,919
Speaker 4: be a powerful set of incentives to just shut the

601
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 4: conflict down at that point to prevent further escalation. But

602
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 4: I think it's more likely that we would retaliate with

603
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 4: conventional weapons, which would push the Russians to use nuclear weapons.

604
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,920
Speaker 4: And I think if they use nuclear weapons, we would

605
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 4: not retaliate. Because you have to ask yourself in these

606
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 4: sorts of situations, how does this play out. People like

607
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:11,320
Speaker 4: to focus on the first move or even the second

608
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 4: move in situations like this, but you want to focus

609
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:17,240
Speaker 4: on the third move, the fourth move, and so forth

610
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:20,320
Speaker 4: and so on. And the point is, if the Russians

611
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,480
Speaker 4: were to use a small number of nuclear weapons in

612
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:28,240
Speaker 4: Eastern Europe, it would be almost impossible for the United

613
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 4: States to hit Russia with nuclear weapons, because that would

614
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 4: give the Russians a very powerful incentive to hit the

615
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 4: United States with nuclear weapons. They would not want to

616
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 4: tolerate a situation where the Russian homeland was hit with

617
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 4: nuclear weapons and the American homeland was not. So this

618
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 4: is a scenario that once it began, once of the

619
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 4: Russians used a handful of nuclear weapons, the incentives for

620
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:59,400
Speaker 4: everyone to shut this down immediately would be enormous because

621
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,400
Speaker 4: we would be there on the slippery slope to oblivion.

622
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 4: And this is why if you talk to the Russians,

623
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:09,320
Speaker 4: they think there's a serious possibility that this would work.

624
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 2: Quite chilling to be contemplating any of these scenarios, Professor,

625
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for your analysis this morning.

626
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 3: We really appreciate it.

627
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:17,880
Speaker 1: Thank you for your time, sir.

628
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:22,279
Speaker 2: So we wanted to zoom out a little bit from

629
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:24,160
Speaker 2: the Iran War and check in on how things are

630
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 2: going overall for the Trump administration of the Republican Party

631
00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 2: as a whole, and a good place to begin our

632
00:36:28,960 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 2: journey here today is with some interesting Tucker Carlson comments.

633
00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:32,840
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.

634
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,439
Speaker 6: I would not support the Republican Party. There's no chance

635
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 6: I would support the Republican Party. Not going to support

636
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 6: the Democratic Party. I don't know what I'm going to do,

637
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 6: but at this point, you know, how could you support

638
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 6: How could I or any American voter support a political

639
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 6: party that's not loyal to the United States, that puts

640
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 6: the interests of a foreign country above those of its

641
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:54,680
Speaker 6: own citizens Like that's you know, it's not possible to

642
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 6: vote for people like that, And I'm not going to

643
00:36:56,600 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 6: And I think I voted Republican my entire life worked

644
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:04,759
Speaker 6: at Fox News. I see an MSNBC. I've been a

645
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 6: consistent defender for thirty five years of the Republican Party.

646
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:11,840
Speaker 6: I mean, very consistent defender. But there's no defending this

647
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 6: because it's immoral and it's exactly the opposite of what

648
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 6: a political party in a democracy is charged with doing,

649
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 6: which is representing its own voters, its own citizens, its

650
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:26,080
Speaker 6: own nation. And they're not doing that. So no, I'm out.

651
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:28,680
Speaker 3: I'm out. Tager, he's out, you think.

652
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 1: Well, MTG backed him up. Tucker is not the only

653
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,120
Speaker 1: one done supporting the Republican Party. There's a lot of

654
00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 1: us that are absolutely fed up and will not support

655
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:38,839
Speaker 1: a party that betrays its voters in his country. That

656
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 1: does not mean we're turning into Democrats either, but we

657
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:44,720
Speaker 1: are done with the America last Republican Party. It's interesting,

658
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 1: I mean, look in Tucker's in Tucker's case, right, this

659
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 1: is a person who has quite literally been I wouldn't

660
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 1: say party line, but has been a.

661
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 3: Commandicating point for sure party line up until.

662
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 1: Let's saying, when did he become interesting? Twenty seventeen? Like, really,

663
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,879
Speaker 1: that's when I've the Tucker Show started, and that's when

664
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:03,880
Speaker 1: you started to see some of the breaks, and there

665
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 1: were some challenging interviews and all that. But so let's

666
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 1: say that's like the last nine years up until that point.

667
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 1: I mean, he'd alreadys had these private views, but really

668
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 1: he was playing the game like in public, and he

669
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,160
Speaker 1: was defending a lot. I mean, he was other Republicans. Yeah,

670
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 1: I know, to this day he says it's the worst

671
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:22,239
Speaker 1: job here, worse than MSNBC and worse than CNN. I

672
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,359
Speaker 1: don't blame it. I couldn't do it either, doing some

673
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 1: fake like concert Times Square.

674
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:28,959
Speaker 3: And morning show ships.

675
00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 4: Oh my god.

676
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's not built for it. I'm not built for

677
00:38:31,560 --> 00:38:33,080
Speaker 1: it either. I'd be like, what the fuck am I

678
00:38:33,160 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 1: doing here? We're playing a water gun game in Times Square? Anyway,

679
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 1: all right, let's let's put that aside. So I think, so, yeah, yeah,

680
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 1: now you have a better You have a better personality

681
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 1: than I do. I'm just too disagreeable. But whenever it

682
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 1: comes to Tucker, this is I think the point that

683
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 1: he's making is around Israel, and I actually do think

684
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,439
Speaker 1: this is a very important point, and I actually blame

685
00:38:55,520 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 1: myself for it as well. So let's think to the

686
00:38:57,600 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 1: calculation that was made in twenty twenty four. The calculation

687
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 1: was this. Anybody with open eyes knew Miriam Aidleson had

688
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 1: given Trump one hundred million dollars. All right, and you

689
00:39:07,040 --> 00:39:09,239
Speaker 1: can all roll the tape in the monologue that I

690
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 1: did up and before the election. It was in October,

691
00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:14,439
Speaker 1: and I said, if you're pro Israel, you should vote

692
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 1: for Trump because you're going to get some of what

693
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 1: you want. This was clear eyed. We knew this. However,

694
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 1: what we thought was, well, JD's the vice president, there's

695
00:39:23,320 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 1: all these you know, Steve Bannon, and the so called

696
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: anti war coalition seems stronger. These forces will have equal

697
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 1: weight within the coalition. Right, in some cases, the Israelis

698
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 1: will win. Everyone was clear out about this. We knew

699
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 1: that they were going to get what they wanted in Gaza.

700
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: Now did we think we would get the Iran war? No, like,

701
00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:43,280
Speaker 1: genuinely no. From we could tell you this, from Trump's comments,

702
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 1: from JD's comments, from Steven Miller's comments. I could go

703
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 1: on and on. What has happened is that actually even

704
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 1: now you know, oh, the Israelis are melting down because

705
00:39:51,719 --> 00:39:53,479
Speaker 1: they're not getting one hundred percent of what they want.

706
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,799
Speaker 1: But if we look at the long, long, network. Now

707
00:39:56,880 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 1: of Trump's actions from January twentieth to twenty four, twenty

708
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:04,239
Speaker 1: twenty five up until today, the balance of power is

709
00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:07,359
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly on behalf of the Israel lobby. So I do

710
00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 1: think Trucker's comments about saying I cannot support them while

711
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,640
Speaker 1: they're literally enslaved to a foreign power is true in

712
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 1: the sense that if the Israel lobby is in your

713
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 1: coalition whatsoever, you have to just assume that they will

714
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:24,399
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly use their money, their power, their influence, their media arm,

715
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:27,480
Speaker 1: the propaganda to take full control. And that's why it

716
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:29,760
Speaker 1: basically just has to be. This is where I'm personally

717
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:32,680
Speaker 1: at is if you are taking eight lesen money, if

718
00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:34,800
Speaker 1: these people are a part of your coalition, I cannot

719
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 1: be part of that. And it's not even just like

720
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 1: a morality thing, because now there's that to it too,

721
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:41,200
Speaker 1: But we know how that how much influence and operate

722
00:40:41,239 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 1: they have. I think the Democrats have all discovered this

723
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: as well, like there's whole you know, track Apac. We

724
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 1: have to give them credit for it. Track a Pack

725
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:49,839
Speaker 1: made it. So they're like, there's no splitting the difference here,

726
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: Guys like you're either in or you're out. The voters

727
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,239
Speaker 1: are on the outside, a lot of the establishment is

728
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 1: on the inside, the GOP. There's everybody's still trying to

729
00:40:57,680 --> 00:41:01,120
Speaker 1: play the dance, you know, the aspirational politicians. I don't

730
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 1: think politically that it can happen at this point. And

731
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 1: look already where we are the Iran deal polling that

732
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 1: came out in CBS where MAGA Republicans support the deal.

733
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 1: Eighty percent of the American people support ending the war

734
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 1: now even though they know that we lost. The political

735
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 1: constituency of neo conservatism is so tiny that I actually

736
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:25,399
Speaker 1: do think we just need either both parties or one

737
00:41:25,440 --> 00:41:27,759
Speaker 1: part whoever it is. But like I personally, and I

738
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 1: think a lot of people can as well, you cannot

739
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 1: expect to have equal weight coalitions ever, again, after what

740
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 1: has happened, we can only go off of what we

741
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:38,880
Speaker 1: see now currently currently the evidence exists. And I'm not

742
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:41,160
Speaker 1: just talking about the Iran war. How about bombing Iran

743
00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 1: back in June? How about deporting all of these you know,

744
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 1: student prote Have you seen this shit with the coffee shop?

745
00:41:46,680 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 1: What's going on right now? Okay, let's talk about it

746
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 1: right because this is important. So there's a new York

747
00:41:50,760 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 1: City coffee shop and what they did not Dan Goldman,

748
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:56,920
Speaker 1: the congressman, came in and I think they found out

749
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 1: who he was. Later they refunded him. They're like, you're

750
00:41:59,040 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 1: not welcome because you support Israel's genocide. Okay, well, guess

751
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 1: what now, this is a full blown freak out. The

752
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:10,479
Speaker 1: Department of Justice is opening an investigation into this coffee shop.

753
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 1: I've been around since Masterpiece. Okay, we have the right

754
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 1: to refuse service as long as it's not based on

755
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 1: race or you know whatever the protecting classes of the

756
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 1: Civil Rights Act is, if it's based on a disagreement

757
00:42:22,800 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 1: over Israeli policy, to me, yeah, I mean a little weird,

758
00:42:26,560 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 1: you know, to be use.

759
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 3: Some service they they rEFInd right, Okay, I.

760
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:33,959
Speaker 1: Mean whatever, right, Sorry, Like, by the way, I don't

761
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 1: give a shit. There's much bigger problems that are all around.

762
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: New York City has got a lot bigger problems for

763
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,760
Speaker 1: I think for the Department of Justice, but the Department

764
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 1: of Anti Racism stuff or Department of Anti Semitism, which

765
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:48,560
Speaker 1: I've been calling it, this Leo Terrell fanatic. This uh,

766
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 1: what with the Florida students with the IDF shirt. I

767
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 1: mean this is I can't live like this. Well that's

768
00:42:53,680 --> 00:42:54,319
Speaker 1: how I feel well.

769
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 2: And it comes to the time when Jade Vance is

770
00:42:56,160 --> 00:42:58,439
Speaker 2: out there saying if everything is jew hate, then nothing

771
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:00,799
Speaker 2: is jew hate. It's like, okay, well, where is that

772
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:03,680
Speaker 2: in terms of your administration's policy, because it's been quite

773
00:43:03,719 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 2: the opposite in terms of what we've seen.

774
00:43:05,920 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 3: I mean, it's very interesting.

775
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 2: It reminds me that going back to the Tucker comments,

776
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 2: and also, you know, the way you're explaining your position,

777
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 2: it does remind me of some of the like disaffected

778
00:43:15,800 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 2: left basically saying, Okay, we're done with the Democratic Party,

779
00:43:19,640 --> 00:43:23,800
Speaker 2: you know, for many very legitimate reasons, many of them moral,

780
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 2: also having to do at times with gen side.

781
00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 3: But then it becomes okay, well what then?

782
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 2: Yes, you know, and I guess it also comes to

783
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:35,319
Speaker 2: a question of neither of the parties is going to

784
00:43:35,320 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 2: be a perfect fit for you, So where are your

785
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,520
Speaker 2: moral priorities or are you going to try to do

786
00:43:40,560 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 2: some third party thing? Are you, Tucker Carlson going to

787
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 2: run for president? So you're going to be the one

788
00:43:44,600 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 2: to restore the Republican Party to what it should be.

789
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 1: It's said explicitly, He's like, you never would do that misinterview.

790
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 1: I mean, I could be wrong. I mean I know him.

791
00:43:51,520 --> 00:43:52,399
Speaker 1: I don't think you would run.

792
00:43:52,560 --> 00:43:54,919
Speaker 2: I kind of ye, I kind of agree with that,

793
00:43:55,080 --> 00:43:58,800
Speaker 2: not because there's not an opening available. He's very talented,

794
00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:02,680
Speaker 2: I think, and very savvy person, but I'm not sure that,

795
00:44:02,760 --> 00:44:05,280
Speaker 2: you know, lifestyle wise, like it's not fun running for president.

796
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:07,359
Speaker 3: You know, he gets to like live in Maiden, do.

797
00:44:07,320 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 2: His thing, and he's got a great life, got a door,

798
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,760
Speaker 2: make lots of money, et cetera. So in any case,

799
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 2: it does just become a question of okay, well what then,

800
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:20,879
Speaker 2: and he immediately says the Democrats are totally off the table,

801
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:22,279
Speaker 2: and it's like, okay, well, at some point you have

802
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 2: to evaluate what are my moral priorities.

803
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:26,840
Speaker 3: The Democratic Party right.

804
00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:30,879
Speaker 2: Now is still very much in the Zionist establishment Israel status.

805
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 1: Quo place, and it's a civil war too.

806
00:44:32,640 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 2: However, Yeah, however, you are much more likely at this point,

807
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 2: given where the Democratic Coalition is, to have a complete

808
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 2: change on Israel and the Democratic Party than you are

809
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 2: in the Republican Party, because the only group out there

810
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:50,760
Speaker 2: in the publics that still die hard pro Israel Israel

811
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:53,879
Speaker 2: no matter what, are boomer Republicans. And that is who

812
00:44:53,920 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 2: dominates the Republican Party based like your average Fox News

813
00:44:57,160 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 2: viewer is way more important to the Republican Party then

814
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:04,360
Speaker 2: you're like super online graper who you know. So in

815
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:07,399
Speaker 2: any case, it's interesting to me and we'll see where

816
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:10,319
Speaker 2: he goes from here. But obviously very noteworthy that he

817
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:13,480
Speaker 2: is coming on so strongly as to saying I'm done,

818
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 2: I'm not doing this anymore. And it really is in

819
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 2: a way, I don't want to overstate it's kind of

820
00:45:17,120 --> 00:45:19,520
Speaker 2: an end of an era, because Tucker Carlson has been

821
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 2: one of the most known faces of Republican Party defense

822
00:45:25,120 --> 00:45:28,520
Speaker 2: for you know, as long as I have been aware

823
00:45:29,040 --> 00:45:31,680
Speaker 2: of politics, going back to the bow tie days, I

824
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 2: mean crossfire and.

825
00:45:32,840 --> 00:45:35,120
Speaker 1: Since when I was born, Like that's what's so great,

826
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:37,200
Speaker 1: and I you know, he gave me my job just

827
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 1: to show you how long this guy's been around for

828
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:41,960
Speaker 1: I do think, I mean, the left analogy is very

829
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: interesting and I don't disagree with you, like, look, you

830
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 1: and I are not third party people. Much to the

831
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:50,760
Speaker 1: chagrin of a very online slice like sorry, it doesn't work.

832
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:54,879
Speaker 1: Trump showed the path I mean not Trump, every aspiring

833
00:45:55,320 --> 00:45:58,000
Speaker 1: great politician has shown the path you take over a

834
00:45:58,040 --> 00:46:00,840
Speaker 1: party and you make it your coalition. End of stories.

835
00:46:00,880 --> 00:46:02,720
Speaker 1: Some of us thought that's what Trump was doing. Okay.

836
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 1: And by the way, though, you know, you see now

837
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 1: even more clearly, even when Trump does pivot and use

838
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:11,479
Speaker 1: his cult of personality for good, like or at least,

839
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:14,640
Speaker 1: you know, directify his own wrong, the whole base will

840
00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 1: will come along. That's crawling for you. That's that's what

841
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 1: being a you know, very powerful leader is. That's how

842
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:23,239
Speaker 1: FDR was that. Any of the transformative politicians, Eisenhower, any

843
00:46:23,239 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 1: of these people. Actually, the Eisenhower one is a good example.

844
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 1: The GOP throughout the entire FDR Truman era was built

845
00:46:30,160 --> 00:46:32,759
Speaker 1: around opposition to the New Deal. That's where the base was.

846
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,319
Speaker 1: It was a very small like Calvin Coolidge, like, oh,

847
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:38,759
Speaker 1: the welfare communists. And Eisenhower was like, yeah, that shit's over,

848
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:40,759
Speaker 1: Like we're just gonna end that. And guess what, he

849
00:46:40,880 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 1: won the popular vote, not just in terms of who

850
00:46:43,200 --> 00:46:46,239
Speaker 1: he was, because he had enormous prestige. He transformed the

851
00:46:46,280 --> 00:46:48,920
Speaker 1: Republican Party forever and gave birth to this kind of

852
00:46:48,920 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 1: like Nixonianism, which embraced the role of government but in

853
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: a conservative form, leading to the EPA and some of

854
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:58,080
Speaker 1: the other good things that the Nixon administration did. My

855
00:46:58,160 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 1: only point is that what you can do is you

856
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 1: can use that cul to personality or leadership or whatever

857
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 1: you want to call it, to take over the Democrats,

858
00:47:05,200 --> 00:47:06,960
Speaker 1: like you said, are in the Civil War. Is he

859
00:47:07,000 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 1: going to vote Democrat? I mean, honestly, maybe it depends

860
00:47:09,920 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 1: on who the candidate is. I mean, if i'm fact

861
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 1: in May, you have to actually think about who is

862
00:47:14,160 --> 00:47:14,760
Speaker 1: the candidate.

863
00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:17,640
Speaker 2: Easier to imagine him voting for Graham Platner than Susan Collins.

864
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 1: Well, okay, did you see Susan Collins interview yesterday. I mean,

865
00:47:21,280 --> 00:47:23,799
Speaker 1: this is insanity. Like this woman is not only like

866
00:47:23,880 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 1: nearly eighty years old, but she's like, well, APAK is

867
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 1: just a bunch of Americans who love Israel And what

868
00:47:30,080 --> 00:47:31,839
Speaker 1: else did she say? She was like, and Graham, he's

869
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 1: so so anti Semitic for calling out I'm like, lady,

870
00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:36,720
Speaker 1: this shit is not going to fly anymore.

871
00:47:36,880 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 2: She said, APAK is made up of Americans who care

872
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:41,680
Speaker 2: deeply about our relationship with Israel.

873
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:42,520
Speaker 3: That's true.

874
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 2: Platiner makes it sound like this is some sort of

875
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:46,440
Speaker 2: evil foreign influence.

876
00:47:46,640 --> 00:47:48,240
Speaker 3: That is absolutely wrong.

877
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 2: She also said, I remain a very strong supporter of Israel.

878
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:55,400
Speaker 2: I think this sadly reflects rising anti Semitism in our country.

879
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:56,799
Speaker 3: The Platner is certainly part of.

880
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:59,359
Speaker 1: This is in twenty seventeen nonsense like this shit does

881
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 1: not fly period to any politically engaged person. So yeah,

882
00:48:03,800 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 1: I mean, do I think a vote for Platner, I

883
00:48:05,600 --> 00:48:07,800
Speaker 1: don't know. By the way, I still think Gramson should

884
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:10,120
Speaker 1: go on his show. I know that that was a

885
00:48:10,160 --> 00:48:12,840
Speaker 1: significant controversy I think in Maine, which I think is

886
00:48:12,920 --> 00:48:16,720
Speaker 1: ridiculous because I think very obviously it reached millions of people,

887
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:18,840
Speaker 1: and Talker as a main resident, they could actually probably

888
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 1: talk more in depth about main specific issues than any

889
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:25,279
Speaker 1: other national television host who would interview him. But like

890
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 1: you said, zooming out, it depends, And ultimately someone made

891
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,839
Speaker 1: this point, you don't vote for parties. You vote for candidates.

892
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 1: Like it's about the candidates.

893
00:48:32,800 --> 00:48:37,200
Speaker 2: So especially at the presidential level, especially at the presidential level.

894
00:48:37,239 --> 00:48:40,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're right, right, because you know Democrat Republican in

895
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 1: the House Senate ninety percent of the time, these people

896
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:43,879
Speaker 1: just vote party line.

897
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it matters more who has the majority and

898
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:48,240
Speaker 2: who's being elected Speaker of the House and the Senate

899
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:51,200
Speaker 2: majority leader than you know, if you're president. Then yes,

900
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:53,879
Speaker 2: the individual person makes more of a different Yeah.

901
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:55,800
Speaker 1: This is why in red states they often can elect

902
00:48:55,840 --> 00:48:58,880
Speaker 1: blue governors is because they're executives, so they trust, you know,

903
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,759
Speaker 1: that person to oversee things differently, even though they might

904
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:03,920
Speaker 1: vote Republican. I don't know, I mean, and I know

905
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 1: this is a bit long wait, but I do think

906
00:49:05,200 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 1: it's important to talk just about how the coalitions and

907
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:11,680
Speaker 1: all that evolved. Like, let's see who the Democratic presidential

908
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 1: nominee is, and we can all evaluate based on that

909
00:49:14,880 --> 00:49:17,520
Speaker 1: a lot of Democrats voted for Trump or former Democrats

910
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:19,600
Speaker 1: or any of these other people. A lot of Republicans

911
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:22,360
Speaker 1: may vote for a Democrat whenever it comes to twenty

912
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:24,480
Speaker 1: twenty eight. I have no idea, but that's where the

913
00:49:24,520 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 1: candidate matters more than anything.

914
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:29,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, so we will see. We also want to

915
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 2: check in on you know, my thesis is effectively that

916
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 2: the Iran war really just destroyed the Trump presidency.

917
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:38,720
Speaker 3: Like all of the grandiose goals.

918
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 2: Not to say there isn't still lots of harm being done,

919
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 2: but in terms of the most maximalist aims of the

920
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:49,440
Speaker 2: Trump administration coming out, you know, out of the gates

921
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 2: with DOJE and then they have the mass deportation. They're

922
00:49:51,520 --> 00:49:55,280
Speaker 2: buying all these warehouses, national guards invading cities, protests are getting.

923
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:55,720
Speaker 3: Shot in the streets.

924
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 2: That has all been dialed back a lot in terms

925
00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:01,879
Speaker 2: of the at least public image and the.

926
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:03,280
Speaker 3: Sort of aggressive posture.

927
00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:07,799
Speaker 2: A lot of that really happened after Minneapolis, and there

928
00:50:07,880 --> 00:50:10,280
Speaker 2: was a I think I was skeptical at the time, frankly,

929
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 2: but I think there truly was a retreat from the

930
00:50:12,560 --> 00:50:16,760
Speaker 2: Trump administration in terms of their again aggressive public posture.

931
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:19,880
Speaker 2: You brought in Mark Waynemullen, you got rid of Christy Noam.

932
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 2: And so now we've seen a few interesting things on

933
00:50:23,120 --> 00:50:25,680
Speaker 2: the immigration front, which really was the core of their

934
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:28,400
Speaker 2: promise the police where they probably did have the biggest

935
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:31,080
Speaker 2: mandate that in dealing with cost of living, which we

936
00:50:31,120 --> 00:50:32,040
Speaker 2: all know how that has gone.

937
00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:33,840
Speaker 3: In any case, let's.

938
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 2: Put C two up on the screen because this was

939
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:40,319
Speaker 2: such an emblem of the Trump administration approach, which was

940
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:44,279
Speaker 2: very showy. It was meant to be showy, cruelty, with

941
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 2: the intent of signaling two immigrants, just get out before

942
00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:52,400
Speaker 2: you find yourself in Alligator Alcatraz or you find yourself,

943
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:54,480
Speaker 2: you know, being dragged and your kids being torn apart.

944
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:58,280
Speaker 2: All of that, right, that was an intentional, intentional direction

945
00:50:58,760 --> 00:51:01,800
Speaker 2: led by Stephen Miller and Christine Oum. So now Alligator

946
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 2: Alcatraz is actually shutting down permanently. This was in Florida.

947
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:11,120
Speaker 2: Rondasantis was very gung ho. In fact, Florida taxpayers fronted

948
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:16,359
Speaker 2: the one billion dollars that went into this monstrosity. It

949
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 2: was beset by problems from the very beginning, sewage overflows,

950
00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:24,919
Speaker 2: worms in the food, you had, you know, abhorrent conditions

951
00:51:25,480 --> 00:51:28,439
Speaker 2: because it is basically in the swamp. Was never meant

952
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:31,440
Speaker 2: to have this many people being held for indefinite periods

953
00:51:31,480 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 2: of time. The federal government was supposed to reimburse Florida.

954
00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:37,760
Speaker 2: They're still holding the bag on that one. That money

955
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,520
Speaker 2: has not come through, and now the whole thing is

956
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 2: being completely shut down, which again I think is you know,

957
00:51:44,200 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 2: very emblematic of the fact that they not only on

958
00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:50,719
Speaker 2: cost of living, but really across the board, they have

959
00:51:50,840 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 2: lost their mandate on even their strongest issue coming in

960
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 2: George W.

961
00:51:55,560 --> 00:51:58,040
Speaker 1: Bush's presidency. It turns out that when you launch a

962
00:51:58,080 --> 00:52:01,320
Speaker 1: disastrous war, you have no political capital to do literally anything,

963
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:03,920
Speaker 1: and then you are one Katrina away from being you know,

964
00:52:04,000 --> 00:52:07,480
Speaker 1: twenty five percent, like twenty five percent in terms of

965
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:10,000
Speaker 1: your approval rating. You're look, you're right, and you know, whenever,

966
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 1: by the way, I hope that we don't bail out Florida,

967
00:52:12,120 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 1: and I hope that they have to raise property taxes instead.

968
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 1: Does anybody else think of bailing Florida out? All right?

969
00:52:18,880 --> 00:52:21,560
Speaker 1: Paid too much money to Florida. I know I've spoken

970
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:23,360
Speaker 1: against that type of rhetoric in the past, but you know,

971
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:26,880
Speaker 1: whenever they're considering abolishing their property tax, you know, somebody

972
00:52:26,880 --> 00:52:28,719
Speaker 1: has to draw the line. But you know, on the

973
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:32,719
Speaker 1: immigration front, let's just think about this very very like

974
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 1: logically on timeline, they came in with the mandate. The

975
00:52:36,040 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 1: mandate was against chaos at the border. Then they decided

976
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:41,920
Speaker 1: and opt They had two paths. One was alleged, I

977
00:52:41,960 --> 00:52:45,200
Speaker 1: mean reportedly pushed by Tom Homan, which is we need

978
00:52:45,400 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 1: an orderly arrest produce by the way, you know, not

979
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:50,080
Speaker 1: a shrinking violet Tom Holman. He was like, we need

980
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:53,680
Speaker 1: to launch use this new budget to target these criminals.

981
00:52:53,680 --> 00:52:57,000
Speaker 1: And instead of doing large scale civilian tile raids in

982
00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:59,640
Speaker 1: blue states. He's like, let's just launch across the nation

983
00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:02,440
Speaker 1: and do a few of those types of targeted actions

984
00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 1: where we need to be unimpeachable for the media. Christy Nome,

985
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:09,120
Speaker 1: Corey Lewandowski, Steven Miller decided in the latter to use

986
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 1: the political coalition that they had to try and to

987
00:53:13,120 --> 00:53:15,400
Speaker 1: capture the media and the public attention, and also to

988
00:53:15,480 --> 00:53:17,880
Speaker 1: use it as a strategy to get people to self deport.

989
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:20,400
Speaker 1: It did actually quite work. At that some quarter of

990
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 1: a million people did self deport. There are still tens

991
00:53:22,640 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 1: of millions of people here living illegally. So at the

992
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 1: same time you burned your entire public reputation, then Minneapolis happens.

993
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:32,759
Speaker 1: Minneapolis happens and is a full scale disaster whenever it

994
00:53:32,800 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 1: comes to public relations, which is then immediately followed by

995
00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:39,600
Speaker 1: a major international crisis. So in the interim of this,

996
00:53:39,680 --> 00:53:41,439
Speaker 1: what it's been almost one hundred and fifty days something

997
00:53:41,480 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 1: like that since Minneapolis happened, well what happens. You see,

998
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,920
Speaker 1: you're that all of the showiness of Alligator Alcatraz and

999
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:50,359
Speaker 1: the warehouse detention centers and all this stuff, which became

1000
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:54,280
Speaker 1: major political hotbed issues in the States where those were purchased.

1001
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:57,319
Speaker 1: They're like, yeah, that's over. So what are you left with.

1002
00:53:57,480 --> 00:54:00,920
Speaker 1: You're basically left with an over wing amount of money,

1003
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:04,680
Speaker 1: no strategy, and your political capital has been burned. Also

1004
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:06,640
Speaker 1: at the same time, you have come on the heels

1005
00:54:06,640 --> 00:54:09,480
Speaker 1: of this disastrous Iron War. Soon we will have the midterms.

1006
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 1: We will even have Republicans, I believe in the future

1007
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:14,960
Speaker 1: once the midterms happen and Trump is officially an actual

1008
00:54:15,040 --> 00:54:16,560
Speaker 1: lame duck. I'm not going to say they're going to

1009
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 1: speak out against him, but it will be very John

1010
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:21,240
Speaker 1: Cornyn ask like, things will start positioning for the future.

1011
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 1: Things will really start to go in a different direction.

1012
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 1: All kinds of people are going to be opening their

1013
00:54:25,520 --> 00:54:26,799
Speaker 1: mouths in a different direction.

1014
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is Marthora Taylor Green. And then I mean,

1015
00:54:29,840 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 2: already there. John Cornyn just gave a big interview where

1016
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 2: he was critical of Trump and critical of the sycophancy

1017
00:54:35,200 --> 00:54:37,160
Speaker 2: and saying they're pushing people like me out of the

1018
00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:41,359
Speaker 2: Republican Party. So sort of like the country club type Republicans,

1019
00:54:41,400 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 2: which is he the biggest emblem of You'll start to

1020
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:47,680
Speaker 2: see more of that. And you mentioned the warehouses. Put

1021
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:50,319
Speaker 2: C three up on the screen. This was another one

1022
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 2: of those big emblems of their you know, grandiose plans.

1023
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:56,759
Speaker 2: You remember who, I don't remember who it was that

1024
00:54:56,840 --> 00:55:01,319
Speaker 2: said they wanted to turn the deportation mechanism into like Amazon,

1025
00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 2: where you had vans zipping around and people being literally

1026
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 2: warehoused in these type of facilities. And if you're going

1027
00:55:07,640 --> 00:55:11,879
Speaker 2: to accomplish what Steven Miller and the rest of them

1028
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 2: want to accomplish, you would need this kind of space.

1029
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:18,280
Speaker 2: To Sager's point, so now ICE is selling a bunch

1030
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 2: of these warehouses that they had purchased. They spent seven

1031
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 2: hundred million dollars on seven warehouses. Now they're trying to

1032
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:26,239
Speaker 2: get rid of them. And to your point, it was

1033
00:55:26,320 --> 00:55:29,680
Speaker 2: a problem in most of these were located in very rural,

1034
00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:33,319
Speaker 2: very Republican areas, But it became like a nimby thing

1035
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,560
Speaker 2: where they're like, Hey, what is this going to mean

1036
00:55:36,600 --> 00:55:38,560
Speaker 2: for my water bill? What is going to mean for

1037
00:55:38,640 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 2: my wastewater treatment plant? What I'm going to have?

1038
00:55:42,160 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 3: All of these people like what does this mean for

1039
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:44,799
Speaker 3: my community?

1040
00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:48,280
Speaker 2: And so they were huge backlash in these places. And again,

1041
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:50,800
Speaker 2: if you were at a different point in the Trump

1042
00:55:50,880 --> 00:55:53,439
Speaker 2: administration where they had more of a mandate and able

1043
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:56,240
Speaker 2: to just sort of like buldoze through that local public pressure,

1044
00:55:56,320 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 2: especially from fellow Republicans, then it would be a different deal.

1045
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 2: But the the thing is, you know, all of this

1046
00:56:01,600 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 2: was half baked to begin with. Warehouses are not set

1047
00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:08,359
Speaker 2: up to be able to hold human beings for any

1048
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:10,680
Speaker 2: period of time, you know, just in terms of what

1049
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:13,480
Speaker 2: would be required in terms of renovating these things. So

1050
00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:17,759
Speaker 2: it became a complete boondoggle. And even though they have

1051
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:19,680
Speaker 2: effectively all the money in the world that they could

1052
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 2: possibly want to buy these places and rehab them to

1053
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:26,280
Speaker 2: you know, serve the purpose, et cetera, they just decided,

1054
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:28,480
Speaker 2: you know what, we're not doing this. We're getting rid

1055
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:31,320
Speaker 2: of this. And one more on this front with regard

1056
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:33,439
Speaker 2: to immigration. Put C one B up on the screen

1057
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:35,840
Speaker 2: because this just happened yesterday and we were talking about

1058
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 2: Minneapolis and the way that that genuinely did mark a

1059
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:43,080
Speaker 2: huge turning point in terms of the Trump administration's approach

1060
00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:47,240
Speaker 2: on immigration. You know how a judge blocking these DOJ

1061
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:49,840
Speaker 2: subpoenas that were aimed at Tim Walls and other I

1062
00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:52,800
Speaker 2: think that Mayor Jacob Fry and some other Democratic officials

1063
00:56:52,880 --> 00:56:57,800
Speaker 2: in the state of Minnesota, calling them blatantly unlawful, seeing

1064
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:02,520
Speaker 2: them as direct sort of political retribution. They said, Initiating

1065
00:57:02,560 --> 00:57:05,560
Speaker 2: a criminal investigation in order to harass political opponents or

1066
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 2: coerce them into taking official action, particularly official action.

1067
00:57:08,520 --> 00:57:09,839
Speaker 3: The federal government cannot.

1068
00:57:09,520 --> 00:57:12,800
Speaker 2: Directly require those political opponents to take, is a blatantly

1069
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:16,720
Speaker 2: unlawful and unethical use of the grand jury process.

1070
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:17,800
Speaker 3: This was a George W.

1071
00:57:17,960 --> 00:57:24,560
Speaker 2: Bush appointed chief judge who believed, correctly so that the

1072
00:57:24,600 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 2: subpoenas were aimed at sort of bullying and intimidating Tim Walls

1073
00:57:27,800 --> 00:57:30,080
Speaker 2: into cooperating with them on what they wanted him to

1074
00:57:30,120 --> 00:57:34,400
Speaker 2: do with regard to immigration. And you know, you may think, like, okay,

1075
00:57:34,400 --> 00:57:36,840
Speaker 2: this probably would have played out regardless of what happened

1076
00:57:36,840 --> 00:57:38,520
Speaker 2: with Minneapolis, regardless.

1077
00:57:38,040 --> 00:57:39,600
Speaker 3: Of the strength of the Trump administration.

1078
00:57:40,080 --> 00:57:43,040
Speaker 2: But judges are very political creatures, and they do also

1079
00:57:43,240 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 2: put their finger in the wind and see where the

1080
00:57:45,080 --> 00:57:47,760
Speaker 2: public mood is and see where things are shifting. And

1081
00:57:47,880 --> 00:57:49,720
Speaker 2: on that note, we could put C four up on

1082
00:57:49,720 --> 00:57:52,240
Speaker 2: the screen. We've got a scotis set to rule on

1083
00:57:52,440 --> 00:57:57,600
Speaker 2: a few different matters, including the Trump administration's opposition to

1084
00:57:57,760 --> 00:58:02,000
Speaker 2: birthright citizenship and attack on right citizenship and it looks

1085
00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:04,440
Speaker 2: like in these three key rulings, two of which have

1086
00:58:04,520 --> 00:58:06,280
Speaker 2: to do with like, you know who you can hire

1087
00:58:06,320 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 2: and fire, and the other one is the birthright citizenship thing,

1088
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:11,919
Speaker 2: it looks like in two out of the three they're

1089
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 2: going to go against Trump. Mostly throughout the administration they

1090
00:58:16,200 --> 00:58:18,080
Speaker 2: have kind of given Trump what you wanted.

1091
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:20,800
Speaker 3: The two significant.

1092
00:58:20,240 --> 00:58:23,320
Speaker 2: Rulings that went against him were on kil mar Berger Garcia,

1093
00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:25,600
Speaker 2: where they said the way you did this was not right,

1094
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 2: and the other one was on Tariff's which I think

1095
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:30,800
Speaker 2: was a huge, huge deal to treat it was very

1096
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:34,520
Speaker 2: very mad about the tariff ruling. And now you have

1097
00:58:34,680 --> 00:58:38,560
Speaker 2: this set to go, you know, two of three against him. Again,

1098
00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 2: I think these are.

1099
00:58:39,640 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 3: Highly highly political actors.

1100
00:58:42,440 --> 00:58:44,960
Speaker 2: They're not just wearing the weighing the merits of this case.

1101
00:58:45,160 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 2: They're also looking at the public mood and how strong

1102
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:50,440
Speaker 2: the president is and concerned about their own legitimacy and

1103
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:52,120
Speaker 2: whether or not there's going to be some you know,

1104
00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:57,040
Speaker 2: extraordinary actions taken by Trump to you know, to go around.

1105
00:58:56,720 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 3: Them or pack the courts or what or defy them

1106
00:58:58,880 --> 00:58:59,400
Speaker 3: out right.

1107
00:58:59,800 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 2: And so the fact that they feel comfortable to issue

1108
00:59:02,560 --> 00:59:04,560
Speaker 2: two rulings against him at this point, I think is

1109
00:59:04,600 --> 00:59:05,600
Speaker 2: also a sign of the times.

1110
00:59:05,680 --> 00:59:10,320
Speaker 1: Yep of another you know, easy historical analog is FDR

1111
00:59:10,520 --> 00:59:13,760
Speaker 1: whenever the court struck down his court packing plan, he

1112
00:59:13,880 --> 00:59:16,280
Speaker 1: never recovered. And that's actually the first time that the

1113
00:59:16,320 --> 00:59:19,600
Speaker 1: Senate and a lot of the congressional Democrats and others

1114
00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:21,920
Speaker 1: decided to defy him, and they had to look to

1115
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:25,320
Speaker 1: this public, this public pressure, and they're like, oh, we

1116
00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:28,000
Speaker 1: actually do have the ability to say no to the

1117
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:29,800
Speaker 1: man in the White House, so which they used to

1118
00:59:29,800 --> 00:59:33,000
Speaker 1: call him FDR, and that was kind of a watershed

1119
00:59:33,000 --> 00:59:35,320
Speaker 1: moment in the history of his presidency. That's also when

1120
00:59:35,360 --> 00:59:38,400
Speaker 1: foreign affairs become much more important for FDR also, you know,

1121
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:40,479
Speaker 1: for the world. But I do think you could see

1122
00:59:40,600 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 1: that not everything is one to one. I'm just pointing to,

1123
00:59:43,560 --> 00:59:46,640
Speaker 1: as you said, the political wins where things go and

1124
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:48,920
Speaker 1: when you lose here and what we're about to talk

1125
00:59:48,920 --> 00:59:52,680
Speaker 1: about here with affordability and with housing very specifically, you

1126
00:59:52,800 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 1: just cause yourself. It's like, you know, it's like it's

1127
00:59:55,400 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 1: like death by a thousand cuts, and there were so

1128
00:59:57,760 --> 01:00:01,720
Speaker 1: many over the course. Iran is definitely the turning point.

1129
01:00:01,960 --> 01:00:04,080
Speaker 1: I think the midterms are going to be a big one,

1130
01:00:04,280 --> 01:00:07,400
Speaker 1: I genuine my like modus like the way that I'm

1131
01:00:07,440 --> 01:00:10,840
Speaker 1: thinking framework wise for Trump. Two, this is the last

1132
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:14,560
Speaker 1: two years is just the Clinton presidency. Clinton from ninety

1133
01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:17,240
Speaker 1: eight to two thousand, he lived in hell, He lived

1134
01:00:17,240 --> 01:00:22,960
Speaker 1: in Lewinsky Hell. He could do nothing. Everything was just Congress,

1135
01:00:23,040 --> 01:00:25,400
Speaker 1: you know, bitching about this, Congress calling you for this

1136
01:00:25,680 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 1: press conference over this, just constant warfare with the Congressional Republicans,

1137
01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:32,520
Speaker 1: with Kennis Starr, and with all of that, people were

1138
01:00:32,520 --> 01:00:34,840
Speaker 1: going to open revolt. And Clinton still had sixty something

1139
01:00:34,920 --> 01:00:37,080
Speaker 1: percent approval rating, but it didn't matter because the whole

1140
01:00:37,080 --> 01:00:40,120
Speaker 1: political system was against him. He got literally nothing done

1141
01:00:40,320 --> 01:00:42,720
Speaker 1: in those two years. So I think that's basically what

1142
01:00:42,760 --> 01:00:43,400
Speaker 1: it's going to look like.

1143
01:00:43,480 --> 01:00:45,640
Speaker 2: You make a good point though, that presidents who are

1144
01:00:45,720 --> 01:00:48,240
Speaker 2: on the rocks with public approval and don't have political

1145
01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:51,120
Speaker 2: support remaining in Congress, what did they do? They turned

1146
01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:53,640
Speaker 2: foreign policy? I mean we already see that really with Trump.

1147
01:00:53,920 --> 01:00:57,840
Speaker 2: And so even after the Iran war, if it resolves here,

1148
01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:00,880
Speaker 2: which big question marks there obviously, what's it going to

1149
01:01:00,920 --> 01:01:02,560
Speaker 2: be next? Is it going to be Cuba? Is it

1150
01:01:02,600 --> 01:01:04,520
Speaker 2: going to be a Greenland? Is it going to be Cuba?

1151
01:01:04,560 --> 01:01:06,600
Speaker 2: And Greenland, Is it going to be something else? I mean,

1152
01:01:06,960 --> 01:01:09,120
Speaker 2: I could definitely see him continuing to go in that

1153
01:01:09,120 --> 01:01:12,560
Speaker 2: direction because that's the area where he has the most

1154
01:01:12,680 --> 01:01:16,040
Speaker 2: unilateral power. And we saw the same thing with Biden

1155
01:01:16,040 --> 01:01:18,720
Speaker 2: and his obsession with like you know, NATO and Aucus

1156
01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:21,080
Speaker 2: and all. I mean, it was partly like his declining brain,

1157
01:01:21,120 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 2: but it was also his declining power with regard to

1158
01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:25,480
Speaker 2: the public in any sort of political.

1159
01:01:25,160 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 1: Man's oldest Tyle Obama JCPOA, you know, it's like they

1160
01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:28,600
Speaker 1: all at.

1161
01:01:28,560 --> 01:01:29,360
Speaker 3: Least he did something good.

1162
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:31,440
Speaker 1: But no, I know what I'm more just saying, like

1163
01:01:31,480 --> 01:01:33,800
Speaker 1: when they lose their power in Congress, they just all

1164
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 1: look abroad, they're all, you know, egomaniacs, obsessed with their

1165
01:01:36,840 --> 01:01:39,280
Speaker 1: own legacy. So that is unfortunate, I think for us,

1166
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:51,360
Speaker 1: especially probably for Cuba.