Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show.
Speaker 1: Now here's your host, Paul. It's Fantasy Football Weekly. I
Speaker 1: am Paul Charchy in my co host today, hardened criminal
Speaker 1: Brian Johnson. What's it like on the inside, Brian, I'm
Speaker 1: glad I didn't get get put in the clink, got
Speaker 1: pulled over on the way over here. You got pulled
Speaker 1: over on the way over here. I've driven in the
Speaker 1: last years. Was it was it a leon let size
Speaker 1: stash in the back of your car? I got I
Speaker 1: got away with a warning, thankfully, But yeah, I don't
Speaker 1: know just what got you? State? Was it a local trooper?
Speaker 1: State trooper seventy and he's like, he was precise seventy three. Great.
Speaker 1: I thought it was the sixty five and thankfully I
Speaker 1: I didn't fully accelerate to where I wanted to be at,
Speaker 1: which is like, you know, raise the speed limits. But
Speaker 1: he was he was a nice guy. Gave me a warning.
Speaker 1: You know, you got off easy. You can't really complain.
Speaker 1: I'm not complaining. Maybe he's a listener, but I was like,
Speaker 1: I know you're gonna You're gonna check in on me
Speaker 1: soon because I am very punctual when it comes to
Speaker 1: these podcasts. No, you are, And when you were ten
Speaker 1: minutes later, I'm like, this is weird, not is it?
Speaker 1: Not like the Brian Johnson I know. But the Brian
Speaker 1: Johnson I know also would never have gotten pulled over
Speaker 1: with a leon letsign stash in the back, running into
Speaker 1: bad luck left and right. Lately got I got good
Speaker 1: things on the horizon, hopefully, but yeah, like the scales
Speaker 1: will balance out, right, I'm gonna go buy like this podcast,
Speaker 1: I'll go buy some lotto tickets after this. There you go.
Speaker 1: Last week we broke down the off season winners. This
Speaker 1: week we're doing the losers. These are the guys we
Speaker 1: think have the opportunity to perform worse than hope because
Speaker 1: of things that changed in the off season. These are
Speaker 1: guys that didn't change teams, but had their situation change.
Speaker 1: Resident losers, resident evil because the bad things happen, and
Speaker 1: I can can contest I've been I'm turning into more
Speaker 1: and more of a best ball junkie every year. I've
Speaker 1: been drafting since January. I was drafting during the playoffs,
Speaker 1: and all of these guys, their ADP has slid for
Speaker 1: reasons that we will mention for each since free agency
Speaker 1: and trading in the draft and all that stuff. Let's
Speaker 1: start with the quarterbacks. We've got four quarterbacks we think
Speaker 1: have taken a hit in the off season, beginning with
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes for probably obvious reasons. He is, still, however,
Speaker 1: quarterback to going off the board in Round three right now, Yeah,
Speaker 1: obvious reason, really right, Tyreek Kill basically getting traded to
Speaker 1: Miami and um. Looking back through mahomes career, not a
Speaker 1: long career by any means. He's played five games without
Speaker 1: Tyree Hill. Eight passing touchdowns in those five games. Not great.
Speaker 1: That's terrible. I mean one point eight per It's not terrible.
Speaker 1: Even worse, four of those eight touchdowns came in one
Speaker 1: quarter against the Oakland Raiders, like when the I watched
Speaker 1: the highlights too, when the dirt was still in the
Speaker 1: field baseball season, So it was just kind of a
Speaker 1: flukey game against an awful Raiders team. Half of those
Speaker 1: eight touchtowns one quarter. So yeah, I mean his ADP
Speaker 1: is probably still too, but I've I've seen him slide
Speaker 1: now to QB three, QB four. It's really hear everyone's
Speaker 1: taking Josh Allen first, but now it's kind of like,
Speaker 1: do you want Mahomes? Are you gonna go with Herbert
Speaker 1: or even Lamar Jackson? Before it was slam dunk Mahomes
Speaker 1: number two? Some mightso even we're taking him before Alan
Speaker 1: not the vast minority were. But ever since the Hill trade,
Speaker 1: you ble are down on him, and for rightful, long
Speaker 1: term I believe mahomes value should be higher without Tyreek Hill.
Speaker 1: Here's why. One, I'm a believer in sky Moore, and
Speaker 1: he won't. He's not Tyreek kill. Nobody's Tyreek killed. Tyree
Speaker 1: kills a totally special case. But I think sky Moore
Speaker 1: can be very effective. Two. They saved one hundred million
Speaker 1: dollars that they're able to put into other places to
Speaker 1: help Patrick Mahomes and sustain his career offensive line. You know,
Speaker 1: whatever replacement tight ends, you know, whatever whatever that case is.
Speaker 1: I still think Mahomes has got tremendous long term value
Speaker 1: and justin Ross, he's got the talent if he's medically
Speaker 1: clear to you know, carry Forth in his career, arguably
Speaker 1: not a draft day steal, just a out because he
Speaker 1: wasn't drafted. He pans out Yeah, Ross and Ross more
Speaker 1: easily could replace Tyley Tyreek Hill the next quarterback Losers
Speaker 1: a name that you already mentioned. Lamar Jackson currently going
Speaker 1: off the board as quarterback four in round four. At
Speaker 1: that point, you're paying a premium on him under the
Speaker 1: assumption that his rather lackluster year last year will will
Speaker 1: proved this year. But it's not obvious to see how
Speaker 1: that's going to happen now. He's in the last year
Speaker 1: was rookie deal Brian and Lamar Jackson does not have
Speaker 1: a new contract. It's not clear that he will be
Speaker 1: paid what he wants to be paid or what he
Speaker 1: thinks he's should be paid. Normally, a quarterback is good
Speaker 1: as Lamar Jackson eight never even hits the last year
Speaker 1: of their of their contract and then be when they do,
Speaker 1: they get paid a lot. They get paid like a
Speaker 1: top five guy, even if you're not a top five quarterback.
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson has one playoff win to his credit to
Speaker 1: this point, and not that that's the only measuring stick,
Speaker 1: because it's not um, but it's not clear he's getting
Speaker 1: that he will get a new contract. And if the
Speaker 1: if the Ravens underproduced this year, if they go one
Speaker 1: and out in the playoffs or don't make the playoffs,
Speaker 1: who knows what his situation might be. But the real
Speaker 1: key here is the loss of Marquis Brown and the
Speaker 1: fact that the team replaced Marquis Brown with nobody, literally nobody.
Speaker 1: The Ravens have got I think the thinnest set of
Speaker 1: wide receivers in the league, the entire position group. Get this,
Speaker 1: the entire position group on the Ravens has one hundred
Speaker 1: thirty one NFL receptions. That's it, one thirty one. Somebody
Speaker 1: catches Mark Andrews almost had last year, probably almost season. Um,
Speaker 1: you know. I will note there is this though. Improvements
Speaker 1: the Ravens offensive line is huge. Jackson took a ton
Speaker 1: of sack In fact, I think he was He had
Speaker 1: the highest sack rate in the NFL among all quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: And they put a first round pick into center Tyler Linderbaum.
Speaker 1: They added Kevin zeitler A he was profoball focuses tenth
Speaker 1: rated guard last year, and they picked up Morgan Moses
Speaker 1: on the right hand side and on that same side,
Speaker 1: they drafted enormous rookie tackle uhla, yeah, my Daniel Falla
Speaker 1: and yeah six ft eight, three hundred sixty pounds. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's it's ridiculous. The Ravens have drafted a lot of
Speaker 1: golden Gophers, starting going way back to Ron Johnson. If
Speaker 1: you recall was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, Max Williams
Speaker 1: or Shot Bateman, there's there's been a bunch there have
Speaker 1: been forget some other ones. So um, overall, this is
Speaker 1: a it's a The receiver set is so thin here
Speaker 1: to me, it really does put some pause before I
Speaker 1: draft Lamar Jackson. Sure the running is great, but I
Speaker 1: really need him to augment that with better, more consistent
Speaker 1: passing than he had last year. And he doesn't even
Speaker 1: have the weapons he had last year. And what doesn't
Speaker 1: bode well for Jackson it bodes well for Baltimore From
Speaker 1: a reality football perspective is uh, that defense is probably
Speaker 1: gonna be one of the better defenses in the NFL.
Speaker 1: And so when it comes to fantasy, that doesn't usually
Speaker 1: equate to a lot of a ton of scoring or
Speaker 1: the need to score a lot. The next quarterback loser
Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill currently going up the board as quarterback twenty
Speaker 1: one in the fourteenth round. It feels like people have
Speaker 1: already baked in a pretty big drop for Ryan tanne Yeah,
Speaker 1: and this is another big name receiver leaving the team,
Speaker 1: A J. Brown, of course. Um In his three years
Speaker 1: with Tennessee, Tannehill has touchdown totals of two thirty three one.
Speaker 1: He had that one really good year in when we
Speaker 1: had the thirty three. A J. Brown accounted for nearly
Speaker 1: a third of all those passing scores. And of course
Speaker 1: he's in Philly now. And we can debate who Tennessee's
Speaker 1: top wide receiver is that rookie Traylon Burks. Is it
Speaker 1: Robert Woods who's looked good in O T A s.
Speaker 1: But I'm still not sure if he's gonna be ready
Speaker 1: to go come Week one. So the loss of Brown
Speaker 1: is a downgrade either way. I'm not saying I'm out
Speaker 1: out on Berks or Woods, but um, yeah, losing A. J.
Speaker 1: Brown hurts. And now Tannehill, a threat on the ground,
Speaker 1: of course, scored seven rushing touchdowns last season. Yes, six
Speaker 1: of those seven came after Derrick Henry went down with
Speaker 1: the broken foot Henry Whip should be back ready to
Speaker 1: go week one, and uh and you know who else
Speaker 1: it's a threat on the ground outside of Derrick Henry
Speaker 1: Leek Willis, who is not gonna challenge him Tannehill right away,
Speaker 1: but they get off to a slow start. They kind
Speaker 1: of probably have similar skill sets and if you know
Speaker 1: the Titans, there's no lock to take that division down.
Speaker 1: I think the Colts are the heavy favorite, and I
Speaker 1: think Jackson Gills will be much improved. And my Warriors,
Speaker 1: what if they bring in the leak Willis at the
Speaker 1: stripe like you know, like the Saints did or even
Speaker 1: with the Raiders, Marcus Mariotta took some touchdown opportunities from
Speaker 1: Derek Carr. So yeah, that's that's that's very plausible. So yeah,
Speaker 1: Tannehill's ADPs slid as a result of all those things.
Speaker 1: The last quarterback loser is justin field. Chicago might be
Speaker 1: the worst team in the league this year. I think
Speaker 1: it's I think there's a possibility that they just bottom
Speaker 1: out right here, that this is this is going to
Speaker 1: be the bottom for them. If if not, the Ravens,
Speaker 1: who I said earlier, have the thinnest reset of receivers
Speaker 1: then it's probably Chicago. Um, you've got Darnell Money in
Speaker 1: his third year, He's got a hundred forty two career receptions,
Speaker 1: which granted is more than all of the Ravens receivers combined.
Speaker 1: I guess that makes him an aged veter in here.
Speaker 1: But after Mooney, it's all third tier cast offs and
Speaker 1: long shots. Dante Pettis, Byron Pringle, Ecuonamius st. Brown, and
Speaker 1: the and then old Man Villas Jones. Old Man universally
Speaker 1: decried rookie draft pick Vellas Jones. I had never even
Speaker 1: heard of the guy until he was drafted, and I thought,
Speaker 1: I knew everything you need to know, at least about
Speaker 1: he's getting drafted in the five rounds because he went.
Speaker 1: He went about five rounds too early to put him
Speaker 1: out of any round was a round to her offensive
Speaker 1: line was bad last year, and they just didn't off
Speaker 1: didn't bring him a lot of help. They picked up
Speaker 1: Green based backup center Patrick Lucas, but then they had
Speaker 1: a Dakota dozer to sixth round picks and a seventh
Speaker 1: round pick. That's it. I mean nothing they helped. They
Speaker 1: put no help around, justin fields at all. They've taken
Speaker 1: sort of like the opposite approach to the Jets, who
Speaker 1: have done like everything possible to put Zack Wilson in
Speaker 1: a position to succeed. The Bears seemed to be doing
Speaker 1: the exact opposite for Justin Fields, despite the heavy price
Speaker 1: they paid to get him last year. Let's go to
Speaker 1: the running back position, Brian, and we've got one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
Speaker 1: eight running back losers to get through. Well, we'll be
Speaker 1: quick through. These are somewhat obvious. I think I think
Speaker 1: some are. Javonte Williams for a while was looking like
Speaker 1: one of the biggest winners of the off season, and
Speaker 1: then after um not signing for over a month, they've
Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon comes back right back to last year. Earlier
Speaker 1: in the winter, everyone was under the presumption that Melvin
Speaker 1: Gordon was gonna be gone and Williams was gonna be
Speaker 1: a bell cow. He was going late first round in
Speaker 1: Best Ball drafts. Now he's going late second, early third
Speaker 1: because Gordon is back and they both average fifteen point
Speaker 1: one opportunities targets plus carries per game last year, and
Speaker 1: it's probably gonna be the same old story this year.
Speaker 1: And it's a Shavonte Williams this week said it was
Speaker 1: going to be the same old story. He said he
Speaker 1: expects the expects the exact same thing as last year.
Speaker 1: Williams and Gordon combined for two tho in three D
Speaker 1: and fifty combo yards and seventeen total touchdowns last year,
Speaker 1: and that was supposed to be all Williams this year,
Speaker 1: and that was with the they were facing numerous stacked
Speaker 1: boxes with Teddy Bridgewater and quarterback Russell Wilson is gonna
Speaker 1: open things up. But we're looking at a platoon here,
Speaker 1: So yeah, Williams, uh. Fortunately, gonna have to wait at
Speaker 1: least one more season for full on bell couch Javonte
Speaker 1: Williams unless Gordon gets injured. The Nuts next running back
Speaker 1: loser is something that some will disagree with. He's currently
Speaker 1: going off the board at running back fourteen in the
Speaker 1: third round, and that's Leonard four Nette. Tampa Bay loses
Speaker 1: Ronald Jones, but and we're gonna in my mind that's
Speaker 1: no loss. I mean, Ronald Joe's a total non factor here.
Speaker 1: But incoming rookie Rashad White is very promising and it's
Speaker 1: got to do everything. Skill set that fits very well
Speaker 1: with Tampa and he can do up most in many
Speaker 1: of the same things that Leonard for Netken and you know,
Speaker 1: for that was the only game in town last year.
Speaker 1: But you know, White could really turn this into a
Speaker 1: one two punch potentially, And Tampa has shown a willingness
Speaker 1: to use rookies extensively. Look at Anton Winfield, Tristan Wharfs,
Speaker 1: Devin White as recent examples. Now, those are all all
Speaker 1: first first I think they're all first rounders. I think
Speaker 1: even Winfield is a first rounder or early second rounder.
Speaker 1: But you know, they drafted White in a position of
Speaker 1: real equity in the draft, and I think he's gonna
Speaker 1: be a factor here, much more than Ronald Jones has been.
Speaker 1: And I think he's gonna chisel away into some of
Speaker 1: Leonard Fournett's usage. And I will continue to maintain Land
Speaker 1: not just isn't that special of a runner. I just
Speaker 1: I just I think he's just just a guy. But Tom, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that helps a lot. And you know, he was the
Speaker 1: starting running back and they really the only game in
Speaker 1: town and the Tom Brady let offense. Um, so he
Speaker 1: still has real value. But I do think White is
Speaker 1: a is a bit of a factor. Let's go to
Speaker 1: Seattle Penny throughout his entire career has been has It's
Speaker 1: all been injury plagued and underperforming until December of last
Speaker 1: year when he berserk down the stretch. And if you
Speaker 1: listen to Fantasy Football Weekly, as I'm assuming everyone hearing
Speaker 1: this podcast does, you got the peacock button are because
Speaker 1: I told you to add Rashott Penny before his the
Speaker 1: Houston game when he went off. No, not that one.
Speaker 1: We're gonna need that one later though, bookemark the sad
Speaker 1: from Bowski, uh bar. But yeah, Penny closed the season
Speaker 1: very strong, was arguably a league winner. He had the
Speaker 1: most yards per carry of all running backs at six
Speaker 1: point three one. Nick Chubb was second with five and
Speaker 1: a half. He was second in yards created per attempt
Speaker 1: among running backs who had at least one hundred rushing attempts.
Speaker 1: Rashott Penny, that is, he looked great, but uh, like
Speaker 1: you said, Kenneth Walker in town, now you have to
Speaker 1: assume he's gonna eat into fort of those touches the
Speaker 1: down the boss of Russell Wilson is also gonna hurt
Speaker 1: Rashot Penny. They're gonna be facing those stack boxes at
Speaker 1: the Broncos facing last year. So, yeah, Rashott Penny, He's
Speaker 1: people were drafting him assuming he was gonna be RB one,
Speaker 1: but he didn't dodge the land mines on on draft
Speaker 1: day and he stepped on one of the biggest ones
Speaker 1: in Kenneth Walker. So so he's RB thirty five right now.
Speaker 1: I think that's too high. I just don't. I don't
Speaker 1: trust Penny, and I'm sure I like what I saw
Speaker 1: at the end of last year. Don't trust that offense.
Speaker 1: And they put massive draft a team that needed help everywhere,
Speaker 1: put massive draft equity into the running back position right
Speaker 1: up against Penny. Yeah, and argue you can. You can't
Speaker 1: argue that they don't trust him to stay healthy because
Speaker 1: he hasn't. We hope he does, but I'll see what happens.
Speaker 1: Going two picks before Rashade Penny at running back thirty three,
Speaker 1: Chase Edmonds in Miami. He's locked into the NFL's ugliest committee,
Speaker 1: Brian with Sony, Michelle, Raheem, Mosterd, Miles Gaskin, Salvon Ahmed
Speaker 1: and now Chase Edmonds. Edmunds going off the board at
Speaker 1: thirty three. This thing's way dicier than Rashade Penny. Even
Speaker 1: any of these guys could get carries at any moment
Speaker 1: right here. And what's more, Chase Edmonds has played fifty
Speaker 1: seven career games. You know, any goal line carries he's
Speaker 1: had inside the five yard line in fifty seven games,
Speaker 1: it's not a lot six six in fifties seven games,
Speaker 1: So one out of every nine and a half games
Speaker 1: he gets a try from inside the five nine and
Speaker 1: a half games. He just doesn't score touchdowns. I think
Speaker 1: this is one of the worst spies out there. Even
Speaker 1: to pick pick thirty three shouldn't at running back thirty three,
Speaker 1: round eight shouldn't be that important. But you could do
Speaker 1: so much better. I remember last year Miami, You're like, oh,
Speaker 1: this is a Miles gask In game, and then it
Speaker 1: was Salvin Akhmed. Then sometimes it's a Salvon Ahmed game.
Speaker 1: Been Duke Johnson goes and now it's even worse. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm totally with you. I would if I had to
Speaker 1: pick one guy from this this uh rotation in Miami,
Speaker 1: and I wouldn't at least I'm not likely to would
Speaker 1: be where he most because he goes off the board
Speaker 1: five rounds later, running around thirteen, and he's got the
Speaker 1: history with Mike McDaniel, and we've seen where he most
Speaker 1: when healthy, he can be a special back. So I
Speaker 1: would draft mostart ride him until he inevitably gets hurt,
Speaker 1: because he always does, and then move on with you.
Speaker 1: Our next loser running back, not loser in life, just
Speaker 1: off season loser. Devin Singletary going off the board at
Speaker 1: running back twenty eight, Round seven and a half eight. Yeah,
Speaker 1: another running back who powered fantasy teams to victory late
Speaker 1: in the season last year six total touchdowns from weeks
Speaker 1: fifteen through eighteen. Also posted decent receiving numbers during that
Speaker 1: stretch and into the playoffs. But here comes James Cook,
Speaker 1: who had one drop on seventy four career targets at
Speaker 1: Georgia Buffalo. Buffalo has also signed Duke Johnson's who if
Speaker 1: he makes the team, Uh, he's gonna be a third
Speaker 1: down option as well, meaning Singletary never sees a third
Speaker 1: down snap ever again most like Now that's hyper believe,
Speaker 1: of course, but it's not looking good for his uh
Speaker 1: bell cow usage that we saw late in one and yeah,
Speaker 1: that's the bottom line. We're just looking at, you know,
Speaker 1: first down, second down working of course, Josh Allen near
Speaker 1: the stripe They probably don't want to keep running him
Speaker 1: at the straight, but you will because he's Josh Allen
Speaker 1: and one can stop him and people can stop Devan
Speaker 1: single theory. So yeah, another guy a DP is on slid.
Speaker 1: The next running back off season loser, Antonio Gibson currently
Speaker 1: going after board I think way too high. Running Back
Speaker 1: thirteen Round three. Ron Very says he's planning to integrate
Speaker 1: rookie Brian Robinson into the backfield with a significant role
Speaker 1: and this week called it a one two punch and
Speaker 1: likened his backfield to the days of Jonathan Stewart and
Speaker 1: D'Angelo Williams. That would be bad for Antonio Gibson, and
Speaker 1: Robinson has built for goal line carries. He's a bigger,
Speaker 1: more of a power back and that could impact Gibson's
Speaker 1: fantasy fortune significantly in a touch and a reduced touchdown total. Here, Gibson,
Speaker 1: last year they had seventeen carries inside the five, which
Speaker 1: is a lot. Turned it into just six touchdowns. And
Speaker 1: of course J. D. McKissick is gonna see a great point.
Speaker 1: Michael Carter massive offseason loser here. Yep uh, we all
Speaker 1: know Jets drafted Reesaw at the top running back taken
Speaker 1: in the April's draft. Carter missed five games due to
Speaker 1: injury last year, who hasn't proved to be fully durable either,
Speaker 1: And when he was giving those several bell cow opportunities,
Speaker 1: he just looked kind of like a guy. And really
Speaker 1: his good games came with Mike White at quarterback on
Speaker 1: just you know, dumping off the ball to Carter out
Speaker 1: of the backfield. So yeah, Michael Carter, he was someone
Speaker 1: you would hope the Jets weren't gonna take a big
Speaker 1: name running back, but they took the biggest name right back,
Speaker 1: So big ali for Michael Carter. I want to be
Speaker 1: clear that everybody loves Austin Neckler. We love him as
Speaker 1: a player, We love the fact that he overtly plays
Speaker 1: fantasy football, loves fantasy football. We've been touting him on
Speaker 1: this show for three years and then the payoff finally
Speaker 1: hit big time last year with his twenty touchdown season.
Speaker 1: His ADP is picked two, and it's only relative to
Speaker 1: that ADP that I discuss Austin Neckler here. In his
Speaker 1: five NFL seasons et there has been a workhorse back
Speaker 1: one time, and only one and it was last year
Speaker 1: when he roughly doubled his normal rushing attempt usage um
Speaker 1: while maintaining his effectiveness through the air. But Eckler could
Speaker 1: easily lose touches to fourth round pick Isaiah Spiller. Spiller
Speaker 1: was projected as a day to second round pick but
Speaker 1: slump to the fourth round, mostly because he ran a
Speaker 1: four six forty at his pro day. But if you
Speaker 1: watch the tape, the kid can run and he's a
Speaker 1: good player. And the fact that they put even fourth
Speaker 1: round equity tells me that they must like Spiller at
Speaker 1: least some and they let Justin Jackson go. I think
Speaker 1: that's another sign as well. And I just fear that
Speaker 1: Eckler's workload is going to get cut into more significantly
Speaker 1: this year than it did last year when nobody else
Speaker 1: could be effective. Remember, Joe Lombardi only gave Alvin he's
Speaker 1: offensive coordinator for the Chargers, only gave Alvin Kamara between
Speaker 1: one seventy one and one four carries when he was
Speaker 1: the starter in New Orleans one one. That would represent
Speaker 1: about a thirty ish carry regression for Ekeler if he
Speaker 1: drops down to camera levels. And while that isn't that
Speaker 1: doesn't torpedo his his value by any means. I just
Speaker 1: it's not the end of the world, but it's not
Speaker 1: necessarily what you want from the second overall pick. And uh,
Speaker 1: you know l A, the l A Chargers, both l
Speaker 1: A teams with the Chargers, of course, in this case,
Speaker 1: they expect to make a long they're a deep playoff
Speaker 1: push this year, and they want to keep him, keep
Speaker 1: him a little pressure than they did than they did
Speaker 1: last year. We're gonna take a break when we come
Speaker 1: back the off season. Losers that wide receiver segment too.
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly Paul Charchi and Brian Johnson with you
Speaker 1: as we look at the wide receivers to whom bad
Speaker 1: things happened in the off season. We begin in Detroit.
Speaker 1: We're bad things happen. Yeah, I'm on ra st Brown.
Speaker 1: Great things were happening for him from weeks thirteen through eighteen,
Speaker 1: target totals of twelve, twelve, eleven, eleven, eleven, and ten,
Speaker 1: yet at least eight catches in every game during that stretch,
Speaker 1: totaling six touchdowns, even ran one in he was another
Speaker 1: league winner. We've mentioned a few of those, but it's
Speaker 1: gonna be tough for him to repeat, uh, those performances
Speaker 1: because he fell into the fortune of many vacated targets.
Speaker 1: T J. Hockinson missed weeks fourteen through eighteen. Uh DeAndre
Speaker 1: Swift was out weeks twelve through sixteen. Those two players
Speaker 1: should be healthy to start the season, and Detroit also
Speaker 1: brought in d J. Chark drafted Jamison Williams twelfth overall.
Speaker 1: I just he's just gonna need to be the only
Speaker 1: show in town like he was at the end of
Speaker 1: last year. So and you probably won't and I'm not.
Speaker 1: I'm not buying in. And I know it was ADP
Speaker 1: has dropped two over the last few months. But even
Speaker 1: where it's at now, it's it seems a little too
Speaker 1: high for me. I don't know who seems he's a
Speaker 1: great player, but he's not going to see those opportunities.
Speaker 1: It doesn't seem like from the same draft class Jalen
Speaker 1: Waddle offseason loser, because obviously Tyree Hill showed up. And
Speaker 1: you know, I beloved Waddles rookie season an unqualified success,
Speaker 1: but like I'm on Ross st. Brown, he benefited from
Speaker 1: a dearth of other quality receiving options in Miami. Now
Speaker 1: Here comes Tyreek Hill, who has averaged a whopping nine
Speaker 1: targets per game, nine times nine targets per game over
Speaker 1: the past two years. And Miami just invested a first round,
Speaker 1: second round and I think it was a fourth round
Speaker 1: pick and a hundred twenty million dollars in Tyreek Hill.
Speaker 1: So those nine targets per game are gonna hold up
Speaker 1: because they're highly incentivized to make sure that those nine
Speaker 1: targets per game hold up for Tyreek Hill. Yes, Davante
Speaker 1: Parker has gone and that helps a little bit. Cedric
Speaker 1: Wilson's got a absurd twenty three million dollar He'll likely
Speaker 1: slot into that spot and get similar usage to Parker. Um.
Speaker 1: The good news for Waddle, by the way, is both
Speaker 1: Hill and Wilson of a history of running from the slot,
Speaker 1: and Waddle's effectiveness was far better outside, and he will
Speaker 1: be predominantly an outside receiver this year and once see
Speaker 1: a ton of double coverage like he most likely did
Speaker 1: last year too, You'd assume not. You would assume Tyreek
Speaker 1: Hills should be drawing most of that himself. So I don't.
Speaker 1: I'd put Waddles a modest a modest off season loser,
Speaker 1: not a major offseason loser. What are your thoughts on
Speaker 1: another player that helped power people the championships and unheralded
Speaker 1: fashion Hunter Renfro. Hunter Renfro is an enigma. He looks
Speaker 1: like a banker, but when giving the opportunity, just an
Speaker 1: absolute beast. And speaking of opportunities on targets, last year
Speaker 1: he was fifth in red zone targets among all players
Speaker 1: with twenty three guest and of course, things fill in
Speaker 1: his favor to get those targets. Henry Ruggs goes to prison,
Speaker 1: Darren Waller is hurt, so yeah, they they had to
Speaker 1: lean on Renfro, but Waller should be healthy come week one.
Speaker 1: And oh yeah, if you haven't heard, Davante Adams a
Speaker 1: Raider hundred sixty five targets from it has proven to
Speaker 1: be pretty good when targeted in the red zone too,
Speaker 1: even from the one. I'm gonna talk about that in
Speaker 1: a few minutes. So yeah, Hunter Renfro. Another guy is
Speaker 1: ADPs slid since the draft and trading in the off season, signings,
Speaker 1: all that stuff, but it's still look a great player.
Speaker 1: I'm excited to watch this offense as a whole. But
Speaker 1: when you're speaking about him individually, I would not expect
Speaker 1: to repeat performance in those numbers. From last year. Another
Speaker 1: secondary receiver that may have a step back Davanta Smith
Speaker 1: because A. J. Brown is the new alpha receiver for
Speaker 1: the Eagles, and I don't think it's clear that Jalen
Speaker 1: Hurts is a good enough passer to feed two receivers
Speaker 1: in addition to Dallas gotterd. So I mean A. J.
Speaker 1: Brown and Dallas Goddard are one A and one B, right,
Speaker 1: and then where does that leave Smith? You know? And
Speaker 1: the other thing that worries me about Slith Smith is
Speaker 1: he's just so small. He's so skinny. He's not gonna
Speaker 1: get goal line looks. You feel like he needs big
Speaker 1: explosive plays to get things done. And I just don't.
Speaker 1: I worry about him being very inconsistent in year two,
Speaker 1: and he was pretty inconsistent in year one as well. Um.
Speaker 1: And the last thing I'll mention the Eagles. We're a
Speaker 1: far better team in the second half of last year
Speaker 1: when they were running the ball constantly, and I wonder
Speaker 1: if they're going to have the same run heavy emphasis
Speaker 1: this year. And I'm much improved defense too in Philly
Speaker 1: as well, be chasing points like they have been in
Speaker 1: the past. Speaking of Chason, let's segue to Chase Claypool. Yeah, brutal,
Speaker 1: Uh sophomore slump for Claypool last year, and and now
Speaker 1: this has nothing to do with Ben Roethlisberger's retirement. The
Speaker 1: whether it's whether it's said Trombo or rookie quarterback baby
Speaker 1: hands Canny pick it both are an upgrade over Roethlisberger,
Speaker 1: but uh, Claypool needs to be looking over his shoulder
Speaker 1: at a rookie wide receiver. George Pickens taking fifty two
Speaker 1: overall might have been the first wide receiver to taken
Speaker 1: in this draft if not for tearing his a c
Speaker 1: L in the spring. He did player and some character
Speaker 1: pretty legitimate sounding character concerns, but he didn't come back
Speaker 1: to play in George's final four games, including the championship,
Speaker 1: so he should be pretty much a full go uh
Speaker 1: come Week one for Pittsburgh. So yeah, Chase Claypool, this
Speaker 1: is time to put up or shut up. But uh,
Speaker 1: he's really just a guy. I would rather wait a
Speaker 1: couple rounds later and take Pickens over to Claypool because
Speaker 1: I'm just so he's going after the border wide receiver
Speaker 1: forty in round ten. I'm actually intrigued by Claypool at
Speaker 1: that point because of the upgraded quarterback and Juju Sue
Speaker 1: Smith Schuster being gone, Pickens many time to acclimate, and
Speaker 1: it's the third year for Claypool, and I I want to
Speaker 1: think he's gonna mature and get it bring it all
Speaker 1: together here at round ten, I'm actually kind of interested
Speaker 1: in clay Pool. But in he had nine touchdowns, I believe,
Speaker 1: and he was the red zone guy for Pittsburgh and
Speaker 1: then Pat fire Muth comes into town on last year,
Speaker 1: he's the red guy. Pickings muscular as Claypool, No one
Speaker 1: really is. But Pickens has good size six three six four,
Speaker 1: so could be wrong here, but still the initiative Pickings
Speaker 1: hurts a little bit. You would have liked them see
Speaker 1: a little more trust. And also Calvin Austin, but he's
Speaker 1: kind of more of a slot guy who's drafted a
Speaker 1: little later than Pickings. But your next pool could be
Speaker 1: a huge value. Like you said, your next wide receiver
Speaker 1: loser is Elijah More from the Jets wide receiver thirty
Speaker 1: one off the board round eight. You may recall last
Speaker 1: year he had a very lackluster start to his rookie
Speaker 1: year and then he had a terrific middle of the season.
Speaker 1: Then he suffered hip, groin quad injuries and then got
Speaker 1: COVID and that was at that ended his all that
Speaker 1: together basically ended his season. So Elijah Moore is now
Speaker 1: gonna have to share time with another fast, explosive downfield
Speaker 1: receiver and a bigger, taller one, Garrett Wilson. And some
Speaker 1: worry me that Wilson's bigger size is gonna make Can
Speaker 1: a better downfield target and a better goal line target
Speaker 1: than Elijah. More and the Elijah We're just gonna start
Speaker 1: getting more balls underneath and shorter stuff and try to
Speaker 1: let him do some of the electric things that he
Speaker 1: can do after the catch. But um, I would prefer
Speaker 1: to have the ball going down field of my receivers,
Speaker 1: and I'm nervous that Garris Garrett Wilson's going to take
Speaker 1: some of that. And Braxton Barrios or Barrios also, Barrios
Speaker 1: stole a lot of targets late in the season and
Speaker 1: they brought him back to a pretty sizeable or significant
Speaker 1: contract extension. So yeah, I'm with you. Let's go to
Speaker 1: the tight end. We've got two and a half tight
Speaker 1: ends to talk through. Let's start with a loser that
Speaker 1: I don't think we expected Mike KISSICKI carently going off
Speaker 1: the board is tight end eleven round eleven. Yeah, and
Speaker 1: he's a loser for the same reasons that really Uh
Speaker 1: a loser because because he us a tight end who's
Speaker 1: not really a tight end. He's a wide receiver. He
Speaker 1: ran his routes from the slaughter out wide. So really,
Speaker 1: for all the reasons that you mentioned for Jalen Wattles,
Speaker 1: why I might just think he's a loser. I think
Speaker 1: he's going for guys. I know we were kind of
Speaker 1: poop poo on the Bears will be called co commit
Speaker 1: a winner last week, and the numerous tight ends going
Speaker 1: after Kisiki. Would I'd rather take these guys because I
Speaker 1: just don't see a ton of opportunities for Kaziki this
Speaker 1: year like he saw last year. Similar story for Darren Waller, really,
Speaker 1: because we've already talked through Hunter rent renfro in the
Speaker 1: effect of Davante Adams, who has always been a target hog.
Speaker 1: He's averaged a hundred fifty three targets per season over
Speaker 1: the last four years and that probably doesn't change here
Speaker 1: given what the Raiders had to give up to get Adams.
Speaker 1: And then you've also got Hunter Renfro, though, who has
Speaker 1: established himself last year, is a totally legitimate and basically
Speaker 1: an alpha receiver. And like Waller, Renfro works over the
Speaker 1: middle of the field. That doesn't help Waller and the
Speaker 1: twenty three red zone targets too, He's very effective in
Speaker 1: the red zone. Um. And here's the other thing is
Speaker 1: Adams is an elite goal line threat. He has the
Speaker 1: most touchdowns from inside the five yard line of any
Speaker 1: receiver over the last two years. He's got one more
Speaker 1: than Adam Feeling although Thelands has uh you know, it's
Speaker 1: like six seven fewer games played over the last two years. Uh. Still, Um,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of things working against Darren Waller here
Speaker 1: currently going up the board at tight end five in
Speaker 1: round four. I you know me, Brian, I love I
Speaker 1: feel very strongly about trying to get one of the
Speaker 1: high end tight ends. I think Waller's just gonna have
Speaker 1: some games where he just doesn't get the ball. There's
Speaker 1: just only so much ball to go around, and Adams
Speaker 1: and Renfrew are gonna get fed and including near the stripe.
Speaker 1: And I'm nervous about Waller having inconsistent production. Yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: with you. Uh, it's Waller is pretty much tight end
Speaker 1: four now after pitts Uh andrews Kelsey and then Kittle
Speaker 1: kind of right after him, and then our guy Dallas
Speaker 1: got her at least my guy a couple rounds later,
Speaker 1: maybe like three rounds later than Waller. I kind of
Speaker 1: rather wait and grab got her than take Waller in
Speaker 1: the fourth round. Uh. Then let's talk about tight end
Speaker 1: thirty one going off the board in round twenty six.
Speaker 1: Who is it Brian dan Arnold who was going on
Speaker 1: He was getting drafted within the first eighteen rounds as
Speaker 1: tight end at least like twenty four. I mean, he
Speaker 1: was a great backup tight end before Jacksonville traded for
Speaker 1: Evan Ingram. Now Dan Arnold could be traded, and I
Speaker 1: kind of hope he is always traded. Dan Arnold, he's
Speaker 1: guaranteed they're not gonna cut him. I can't cut him.
Speaker 1: He's guaranteed too much money by Jacksonville. But Arnold kind
Speaker 1: of in the mold of Giski ran roughly se his
Speaker 1: routes from the slaughter outside. He's kind of more of
Speaker 1: a wide receiver. But so was Evan Ingram, who again
Speaker 1: Jacksonville signed in the off season. Um and presumably Angram
Speaker 1: will be the tight end one for Jacksonville. That said,
Speaker 1: Ingram has twenty one career drops, most by a tight
Speaker 1: end since seventeen, also known to get injured. So I'm
Speaker 1: I'm not fully convinced that Ingram like is the guy
Speaker 1: tight end for Jacksonville. Uh So, I'm not out entirely
Speaker 1: on Arnold and a new head coach Doug Peterson. Uh
Speaker 1: for Jacksonville, who previously coached the Eagles has done some
Speaker 1: damage with two tight ends in the past. Dallas Goddard
Speaker 1: ZACKERD So, yeah, Arnold was really getting drafted as a
Speaker 1: tight end two and every draft I was in. But
Speaker 1: since they signed Ingram, he's really not getting drafted right now. Unfortunately.
Speaker 1: How much does a speeding ticket cost you these days
Speaker 1: in the state of I don't I'm glad you don't know.
Speaker 1: I bet it's for a seventy three and a fifty
Speaker 1: five or a sixty. He was thinking it's sixty, seventy
Speaker 1: three and a sixty. I bet you that's a eighty
Speaker 1: dollar ticket. Really, I would be I would just like two.
Speaker 1: I think that, well, I think that's because you're think
Speaker 1: think I think you could be like twenty over to
Speaker 1: get into the two hundred range is my guess. Not
Speaker 1: positive about that, but so the fact you only got
Speaker 1: a warning in a in an in essence, you made
Speaker 1: eighty three dollars on your way here. Yeah, I should
Speaker 1: go buy eighty three lottery tickets after this, the two
Speaker 1: bucks each now yeah, half there you go, forty one
Speaker 1: and a half lottery tickets. Thank you for listening to
Speaker 1: the h this edition of Fantasy Football Weekly. We'll be
Speaker 1: back next week for more. I not positive what the
Speaker 1: topic is next week. I don't remember. I know Skyfish
Speaker 1: is pretty much pencil themselves Scott Fish Bowl talk. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they're probably gonna be true, and uh, we'll probably talk
Speaker 1: a little bit about guillotine leagues. So we should have
Speaker 1: launched at that point, so we'll uh, we'll get into
Speaker 1: the guillotine league season as well. Thanks for listening. Everybody
Speaker 1: back in one week. Fantasy Football Weekly is a production
Speaker 1: of I Heart Radio. For more podcasts from my heart Radio,
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