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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: You can just about that action all right here, we

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Speaker 2: all probably throwing out.

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Speaker 3: We're sitting up a cash touchtop. We'll see most gamble

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Speaker 3: is ships. When they go to gamble, they go to win.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate combining and you want to fall

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Speaker 3: and we are under way. What's up? Everybody? Welcome to

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Speaker 3: the Action Network Podcast presented by Draft Kings. I'm your host,

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Speaker 3: Chris Raybond. This is our NFL we can betting preview.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna talk side totals, props, money line dogs, anytime touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: Of course you will build our Sunday six back against

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Speaker 3: the spread bets to help with my co host, a

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Speaker 3: prime Minister of degenerate Nation. Stucky, stuck, what's going on?

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Speaker 3: You continue to have an excellent year. I thought I

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Speaker 3: was gonna do a little better than I did, but

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Speaker 3: just lost over for the pod with the ridiculous fourth quarter.

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Speaker 3: I had the under excuse me with the ridiculous fourth

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Speaker 3: quarter for the Raiders game. But how you failing? Heading

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Speaker 3: into Week ten?

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Speaker 5: Good Good should have been a clean sweep again, but

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Speaker 5: c J. Strow got hurt off at the Lindman got hurt.

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Speaker 5: They couldn't punch it in from the one. So that

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Speaker 5: was unfortunate to lose that bet because it looked like

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Speaker 5: they were gonna run away with it early. Yeah, so

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Speaker 5: that was unfortunate, but that's what happened.

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Speaker 6: Sometimes your quarterback it's hurt.

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Speaker 5: Obviously, if I knew it was David Smills, I wouldn't

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Speaker 5: have bet them moneyline against the Broncos. But it is

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Speaker 5: what it is. Yeah, it's good week with who cares?

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Speaker 5: We're on the next let's get to Week ten.

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Speaker 3: Any thoughts on the Thursday night football game before we

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Speaker 3: jump into the six pack? You got the Broncos hosting Raiders,

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Speaker 3: who were just very weird last week with their like

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Speaker 3: they just benched all their rookie receivers and just kind

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Speaker 3: of like it was like they're in must wind mode

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Speaker 3: or something. But it's no, You're You're not good. So

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Speaker 3: I don't know, I don't know what to think of

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Speaker 3: the Raiders. Any thoughts on this on this matchup?

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Speaker 5: Endeavor, it's a I mean, the Broncos are probably the

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Speaker 5: luckiest team in the NFL. I mean, if you think

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Speaker 5: about their wins over the last month, like they beat

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Speaker 5: Davis Mills. They beat the Jets by two in London

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Speaker 5: when they score when they had negative ten passing yards.

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Speaker 5: They had a crazy comeback against Jackson Dart when they

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Speaker 5: were getting blown out at home, crazy comeback against the Eagles.

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Speaker 5: Like this team is just running so good in fourth

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Speaker 5: quarters and who they're getting and when the injuries happened

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Speaker 5: on other teams. Bow Knicks has been bad except for

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Speaker 5: like a couple of fourth quarter drives, like all of

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Speaker 5: his epas against two teams. It's like against the Bengals

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Speaker 5: and the Cowboys, the two worst defenses in the league,

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Speaker 5: and there's no certain the defense is certainly different without him.

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Speaker 5: We saw that early with Stroud and the Texans were

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Speaker 5: moving the ball.

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Speaker 6: I don't know.

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Speaker 5: I mean, the problem is Nicks looks good against horrific defenses.

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Speaker 5: The Raiders have a horrific defense. They blew them out

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Speaker 5: twice last year, won by double digits in both meetings.

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Speaker 5: And this is a horrendous spot. So I think the

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Speaker 5: numbers too high, but I don't know exactly how to

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Speaker 5: quantify the spot. The Raiders are on short week after

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Speaker 5: OT and they played a full OT game, and their

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Speaker 5: defense is on the field the entire second half, the

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Speaker 5: entire overtime, and they wore down. Now they got to

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Speaker 5: go to altitude in a short week on a Thursday.

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Speaker 5: It's only happened one other time teams got blown out

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Speaker 5: teams in this spot, short week after OT game, playing

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Speaker 5: on Thursday or Friday six excuse me, five and twenty

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Speaker 5: five against the spread five and twenty five.

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Speaker 6: So it's a nightmare spot.

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Speaker 5: The Raiders without Miller and their offensive line issues against

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Speaker 5: that Denver pass rush could be problematic as well.

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Speaker 6: So I don't know numbers.

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Speaker 5: I would say if it gets to ten, I'm gonna

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Speaker 5: have to play the Raiders.

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Speaker 6: Hopefully it doesn't, and this is probably a.

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Speaker 3: Past Yeah, It's one of those things where it's just

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Speaker 3: I think there's more going on with this Raider team

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Speaker 3: that I can't really quantify because it's it's coaching wise,

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Speaker 3: behind the scenes. But I just I just am really

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Speaker 3: confused with what they're doing. And I don't know how much.

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Speaker 3: You know, brock Powers makes an impact in dismatchup versus

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Speaker 3: the last one where it was kind of just a

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Speaker 3: lot more set up for him. You know this this

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Speaker 3: could be a tougher matchup, Sir ten doesn't factor in

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Speaker 3: as much with that, and you traded Byers, so yeah,

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Speaker 3: this is a team. I had three first downs a

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Speaker 3: few weeks ago. Yeah, passed for.

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Speaker 1: Me Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 3: Let's get into the week ten Sunday six pack rough

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Speaker 3: thirty five twenty two. Still got some work to do. Uh,

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Speaker 3: you've just been I mean, no breaks all year pretty much,

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Speaker 3: and you've been hitting the money line, dogs and touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: So good stuff. You're up first where you go in

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Speaker 3: for week ten?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I actually think it's I think it's thirty five

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Speaker 5: to twenty one. I give you a point for the total.

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Speaker 5: I thought you hit your total, but.

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Speaker 3: No, no, no, that was it was the the oh

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Speaker 3: that's the forty forty three points in the fourth quarter

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Speaker 3: and yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I got fortunate.

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Speaker 5: With my total with the Chargers. The Titan scoring a

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Speaker 5: couple non offensive touchdowns.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, DJ, like a week late or two.

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Speaker 5: Weeks Yeah, yeah, of course DK scored.

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Speaker 3: The first touchdown too, I think.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and then we couldn't hit our touchdown partlant I got,

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Speaker 5: I got mine, and but then Kraft got hurt, which was.

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Speaker 3: I Fitzpatrick I had Fitzpatrick too, and he he had

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Speaker 3: like the perfect opportunity.

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Speaker 5: But of course, yeah, I was thinking of I was

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Speaker 5: rooting for you after Craft went down.

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Speaker 6: Am I first? Yeah, yeah, Okay.

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Speaker 5: For my first pick of the week ten Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 5: we're getting ugly. I'm going with the Washington Commanders plus

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Speaker 5: eight and a half at home against the Detroit Lions. Listen,

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Speaker 5: the Commanders are horrendous. I get it, they've lost four straight,

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Speaker 5: they've been blown out in three straight. But I can't

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Speaker 5: get to this number in any world. So I was

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Speaker 5: anticipating this number to be like three and a half,

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Speaker 5: and then obviously Daniels gets hurt, probably out for the year.

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Speaker 5: This is assuming the difference between Daniels and Mariota is

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Speaker 5: like six points. No, I mean I have it at

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Speaker 5: like three. I mean, Daniels has not been playing great

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Speaker 5: this year. I mean, if you just look at PFF grade,

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Speaker 5: he's like a tenth or eleventh Mariota's eighth. You look

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Speaker 5: at EPA plus completion percentage over expectation, Mariota's twenty first

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Speaker 5: this year. Daniels is twenty third over the past two seasons.

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Speaker 5: Somemon Quarterbacks at least one hundred fifty snaps. Mariota's eighth

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Speaker 5: in that department, Daniels's fourteenth. Mariota is a higher success rate,

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Speaker 5: higher completion percentage, more air yards, same exact adjusted EPA

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Speaker 5: for play. Now, I'm not saying Mariota is better than Daniels.

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Speaker 5: I'm just saying this isn't you know? This line is

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Speaker 5: like the Rams coming to Baltimore and facing Cooper Rush

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Speaker 5: with a JV defense. Mariota is a serviceable backup where

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Speaker 5: I think the drop off to this version of Daniels

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Speaker 5: what we've seen this year and that hasn't been a

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Speaker 5: rhythm with his receivers, is only like three points. So

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Speaker 5: I'm getting to like six and a half, six seven,

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Speaker 5: So obviously anything over a touchdown I'm willing to bat. Now,

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Speaker 5: you could say Washington's defensive injuries McLaurin all, all those

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Speaker 5: are fair points. Now Latimore being out, I don't care. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: they might have better options. Lulu's gonna play, he got

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Speaker 5: his suspension repealed. There's some other injuries, but like the

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Speaker 5: Washington defense have been so bad, I don't like. None

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Speaker 5: of these losses are huge. They can they still have

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Speaker 5: they still aren't able to generate consistent pressure off the

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Speaker 5: edge of due to injuries. That's a problem here, but

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Speaker 5: they can get pressure up the middle, and that stat

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Speaker 5: can be problematic for GoF who, by the way, is

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Speaker 5: going to be outdoors here could be some wind conditions

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Speaker 5: probably very helpful to Washington slowing down that Lion's offense.

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Speaker 5: The field conditions and this. People aren't talking enough about

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Speaker 5: how broken the Lions offenses since October. First, you know,

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Speaker 5: they faced the Bengals over that stretch twenty fourth and

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Speaker 5: success rate seventeen ppa per play, twenty ninth in rush

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Speaker 5: success rate, you know, it was number one over that

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Speaker 5: stretch Bears. So I think that's two things they missed.

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Speaker 5: Ben Johnson and the offensive line. The offensive line is

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Speaker 5: significantly worse than last year as we thought it might

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Speaker 5: be in the interior, and now there are significant injuries,

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Speaker 5: so you know they downgraded. The drop off from Ragnow

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Speaker 5: to Glasgow is enormous at center, and now you lost

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Speaker 5: Mahogany at guard.

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Speaker 6: It's not great, but you're back up now. I was sick,

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Speaker 6: not good.

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Speaker 5: Your tackles both might miss Decker and Sewell.

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Speaker 6: Decker has not.

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Speaker 5: Been the same he's been He's just been banged up

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Speaker 5: all year, and Sewell is one of the top two

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Speaker 5: or three tackles in all football. They don't think they

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Speaker 5: either are going to practice this week. We don't know

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Speaker 5: if either are going to go. Sewel's probably more likely

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Speaker 5: than Decker, but if they can, If they both can't go,

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Speaker 5: I mean Skipper didn't even practice that, I don't even

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Speaker 5: know what tackles they have. They have like Manu who

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Speaker 5: they had to start earl these years on IR. They

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Speaker 5: have like sores Allan Jones, They're both on IR. Like

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Speaker 5: if they can't go, I don't even know who the

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Speaker 5: tackles are. So and the Washington has some interior they

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Speaker 5: can they have some guys and get some interior pressure.

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Speaker 5: On Golf, They're probably gonna bring some pressure up there.

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Speaker 5: They saw the formula that the Vikings used last week

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Speaker 5: to just expose that beat up offensive line. Assuming we're

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Speaker 5: gonna see some similar stuff there, and this is still

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Speaker 5: a functional Washington offensive line. It's still a decent run game.

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Speaker 5: There's seventh in rush success rate. Mariota can still move

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Speaker 5: the Lions rund thee this year seventeenth and success rate.

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Speaker 5: So I think Washington what they're gonna do here. Klorin's

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Speaker 5: not gonna play mccafie and I are. I think they're

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Speaker 5: gonna go like more twelve personnel, heavy, run the ball,

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Speaker 5: use Mariota's legs ball control, and I think they can

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Speaker 5: move it that way against this Lion's defense, who, by

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Speaker 5: the way, also isn't fully healthy in the secondary, So

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Speaker 5: like this isn't nowhere close to a fully healthy Lion's team.

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Speaker 5: The offensive line is a mess, the secondary is still

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Speaker 5: beat up. So I just can't get over a touchdown here.

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Speaker 5: And for what it's worth, dogs of three or more

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Speaker 5: on a current losing streak with an average cover margin

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Speaker 5: of more than negative two touchdowns over their past four games.

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Speaker 5: So think about that teams lost bunch in a row

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Speaker 5: over the last four games. Their average cover margin is

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Speaker 5: negative fourteen and a half or more. That means they

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Speaker 5: haven't even close. No one wants to bet this, one

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Speaker 5: wants to come near this teams. You're usually getting some

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Speaker 5: value those teams fifty seven thirty four to three against

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Speaker 5: the spread, sixty three percent, covering by about two and

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Speaker 5: a half points per game. I think that this line

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Speaker 5: is like one and a half two points too high,

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Speaker 5: So I'm gonna take I'm gonna hold my nose here.

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Speaker 5: Take the Commanders against the Lions. This line's offense is

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Speaker 5: not firing on all cylinders. And think about it.

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Speaker 6: I could give you.

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Speaker 5: I could also give you a ton of Dan Campbell stats.

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Speaker 5: I think he's twelve to zero against the spread after losses.

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Speaker 5: I could have done the same last week off the

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Speaker 5: by at home. This is not the same Lions team

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Speaker 5: right now, due to the injuries, due to the state

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Speaker 5: of the offensive line. I mean losing at home to

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Speaker 5: JJ McCarthy went.

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Speaker 3: Through for like one hundred and forty yards too. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: red flag.

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Speaker 5: So I mean the Lions and if you look back

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Speaker 5: their most impressive performances this year, it's like against the

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Speaker 5: beat up Bucks team at home when Baker Mayfield was

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Speaker 5: completely off. They went into Baltimore when Baltimore's defense was

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Speaker 5: in shambles. But this is not the same Lions team.

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Speaker 5: Commanders are a mess. I get it, But that'd bee.

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Speaker 5: I'm getting eight and a half at home, so give

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Speaker 5: me the gimme.

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Speaker 3: Washington, Yeah, I mean that was just a bad It

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Speaker 3: left a bad taste in my house. Last week better

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Speaker 3: in Washington. I thought they would I thought they would

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Speaker 3: show up uh more than they did against Donold. And

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Speaker 3: at one point I think Donald was averaging seventeen point

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Speaker 3: six yards per pass attempt. He's like thirteen of thirteen.

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Speaker 3: I don't think I've ever seen a higher uh wise, Yeah, astronomical. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it was just absurd. Uh So, you know, at some point,

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Speaker 3: these teams, you know, we talk about these trends all

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Speaker 3: the time. You know, these teams that get blown out,

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Speaker 3: at some point they tend to just it tends to overcorrect. Now,

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Speaker 3: this could be the week. You know, the Lions might

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Speaker 3: have no offensive linemen and their defense is still shake

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Speaker 3: even though the numbers tend to be good. And you're

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Speaker 3: outdoors and it's golf, so yeah.

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Speaker 5: Outdoor golf with no offensive line, it's gonna be a

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Speaker 5: pillow fight up front. Who can win the Washington defensive

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Speaker 5: line or the Detroit backup if Washington backups or the

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Speaker 5: Detroit backups.

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Speaker 6: But yeah, I just think it's too high.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we're gonna keep it ugly. So for my

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Speaker 3: first pick, the second overall of the Week ten six pack,

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Speaker 3: I'm going with the Houston Texas plus one and a

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Speaker 3: half at home against the Jaguars C j Stroud. You know,

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Speaker 3: we knew he was gonna miss. There is a nine

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Speaker 3: day median between concussion in the new protocol, so most

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Speaker 3: guys are gonna miss in that spot. So I was, yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's it's it's kind of at the tails like it's

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Speaker 3: so I was projecting the Texas to have Davis Mills

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Speaker 3: at quarterback the entire time, and I think this number

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Speaker 3: is just getting out of hand down. You know, at first,

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Speaker 3: I was like, Okay, you know it's gonna be like

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Speaker 3: a pick them.

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Speaker 6: Now roll out one seacond. What it's worth.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I saw, Yeah, we knew that. So listen, it's

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Speaker 3: kind of what you're saying, like, Davis Mills is not good.

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Speaker 3: But we look at the other side of this matchup,

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Speaker 3: and Jakobe Myers is not just gonna fix the Jaguars offense.

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Speaker 3: First of all, d Kobe Myers has been the most

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Speaker 3: like average receiver, not making really a ton of impact

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Speaker 3: even though he's a high volume guy. He just happened

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Speaker 3: to be a high volume guy and a bad team.

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Speaker 3: But if you look at his numbers and just watch

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Speaker 3: him play like he's I don't think he's gonna add

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Speaker 3: another element to this offense. Now, Travis Hunter on IR,

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Speaker 3: Brian Thomas has banged up, Dianie Brown has banged up.

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Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence just continues to sink in under the advanced metrics. Now,

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Speaker 3: in a EPA per play completetion percentage over expected composite,

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Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence is bottom three. He's ahead of only cam

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Speaker 3: Ward and doing Gabriel. That's where we're at. So now

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Speaker 3: you're telling me the Jags are supposed to be a

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Speaker 3: road favor here, the real difference in this game is

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Speaker 3: going to be the defense. It's it's going to be

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Speaker 3: the defense for Houston because the Jaguars offense with Lawrence

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Speaker 3: is no guarantee, especially with all these guys banged up,

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Speaker 3: to be significantly better than the Texas at home with

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Speaker 3: Davis Mills. You know, the receiving court should be healthy,

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Speaker 3: Nico should be in there, and this Jags team is

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Speaker 3: you know, adjusted Zacharrate, they're terrible. That there a lot

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Speaker 3: of turnover look early in the year. But and you

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Speaker 3: know Mills could give you one of those. But this

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Speaker 3: Jags defense is nothing special. They're not getting a ton

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Speaker 3: of pressure. Houston's at home where they always play better.

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Speaker 3: The skill players are still there, they'll have time to

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Speaker 3: prepare for a Stroud absence. And the Jaguars are banged

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Speaker 3: up on offense too, and their offensive numbers are equally

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Speaker 3: terrible as a Davis Mills where offense could be. So

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Speaker 3: I still make Houston a favorite. I just think Jacksonville.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how much Myers is going to be

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Speaker 3: able to, you know, contribute here. We'll see they might

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Speaker 3: need him to. But Strange is still on IR. I mean,

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Speaker 3: this team is just a little more decimated than I

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Speaker 3: think people think, and the defense was never as good

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Speaker 3: as people think, So I just don't know how much

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Speaker 3: King Kolin is gonna be able to do in this

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Speaker 3: spot when Houston's defense has been so dominant to the

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Speaker 3: point where you know Houston is the better team in

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Speaker 3: uh in like net E p A per play that's

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Speaker 3: offense and defense uh dv o A. And they're at home,

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Speaker 3: So yeah, Stroud is is worse. Probably have it around

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Speaker 3: a little over a field goal, But h this Jags

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Speaker 3: team trending down for me, So give me. Houston might

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Speaker 3: plus now plus one and a half. It might You

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Speaker 3: think it. You think it gets to like above, We

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Speaker 3: think it got to three. No, right, no, yeah, it's

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Speaker 3: got it.

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Speaker 5: I mean, so a couple a couple of things I

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Speaker 5: kind of agree with you. I mean, Jack's coming off

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Speaker 5: an OT game, secondary road game, right like, that's not

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Speaker 5: ideal either. And Jordan Lewis, who's important, didn't practice today.

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Speaker 5: He's banged up, uh, and he's been very good for them.

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Speaker 5: Devin Lloyd banged up, Ezra Cleveland didn't practice today, Brian

325
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Speaker 5: Thomas didn't practice day Hunter Long, they're backup tight end

326
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Speaker 5: didn't practice today. Yeah, so and then they're I don't

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Speaker 5: know how they consistently moved the ball here. The one

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Speaker 5: thing that I'm worried about is also Devin Lloyd. He's

329
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Speaker 5: worth it, I don't I don't know his status, but

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Speaker 5: he's a little banged up. The one thing I'm worried

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Speaker 5: about here with the Texans is number.

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Speaker 6: I mean, they're.

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Speaker 5: Just figure out how to sneak the ball. They did

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Speaker 5: it two weeks ago against the Niners. They kept they

335
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Speaker 5: were doing the touch push and they didn't do it

336
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Speaker 5: last week.

337
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Speaker 3: But they're British Brooks. Why is British Brooks getting carries gone.

338
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Speaker 5: Their goal line is unbelievable. But Titus Howard as a concussion,

339
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Speaker 5: and the Texans have fixed some of their offensive line

340
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Speaker 5: issues in protection, like last week that the Broncos had

341
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Speaker 5: the second lowest pressure rate of the year, and part

342
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Speaker 5: of that has to do with they're using more six

343
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Speaker 5: offensive linemen, using more jumbo. So if Howard can't go,

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Speaker 5: I mean, it's tough because then you're probably starting. Blake

345
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Speaker 5: Fisher is really bad, and I don't know you used

346
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Speaker 5: Trent Brown.

347
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Speaker 6: Is Trent Brown even played this year? I don't.

348
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Speaker 5: I think he's still in the roster. That's what concerns me.

349
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Speaker 5: Blake Fisher cannot pass protect at all, and the Jags

350
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Speaker 5: do have some good dead rushers, so that worries me

351
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Speaker 5: a bit. But I do think that ultimately the Texans

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Speaker 5: defense probably gets this done. My approach to this game,

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Speaker 5: though I haven't bet it yet. I don't know if

354
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Speaker 5: I maybe just want to bet the Jags team total

355
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Speaker 5: under or or tease like at one and a half.

356
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Speaker 5: Teasing the Texans I think makes a ton of sense.

357
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Speaker 5: Maybe pair it with like the Jets, which I'll get

358
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Speaker 5: to in a bit. So yeah, I don't hate your

359
00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,959
Speaker 5: look here, it's either Texans or nothing. But for my

360
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Speaker 5: second pick, and the third overall of the Week ten

361
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Speaker 5: Sunday six pack. I'm going with the Arizona Cardinals plus

362
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Speaker 5: six and a half at the Seattle Syhawks. Have not

363
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Speaker 5: bet this yet, doesn't matter for the contest because pushes

364
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Speaker 5: their losses weight on a seven. Even if it's this

365
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:40,720
Speaker 5: plus seven one minus one twenty, that's what I'm doing.

366
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Speaker 5: If it never pops, I'm still playing the Cardinals plus

367
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Speaker 5: six and a half. I think the Cardinals are the

368
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Speaker 5: most underrated team in the NFL right now, even after

369
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Speaker 5: what they did in Dallas, completely shutting down that Dallas

370
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Speaker 5: offense which goes off every time they play at home.

371
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Speaker 5: And there's a couple of reasons for that. Number One,

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Speaker 5: the offense is better with Persett since he took over

373
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Speaker 5: in week six, eleventh in EPA per play nineteenth or

374
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Speaker 5: ninth in success rate, eleventh in rush EPA twelfth and

375
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Speaker 5: dropback EPA. And by the way, weeks one through five

376
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Speaker 5: they were worse than all those stats. I mean they

377
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Speaker 5: were twenty third in success rate compared to ninth with Perset,

378
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Speaker 5: twentieth in rush EPA over the first five weeks. Eleventh

379
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Speaker 5: since and that's without Murray's legs and without their backs,

380
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Speaker 5: the whole offense is a much smoother operation. I mean,

381
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Speaker 5: Marvin Harrison now looks good. He's involved in the offense,

382
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Speaker 5: and everything is better. With Persett, he doesn't his lowest

383
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Speaker 5: turnover worthy play rate in the league. He doesn't take

384
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Speaker 5: the bad sacks. And by the way, that has what's

385
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Speaker 5: killed Kyler Murray against the Seahawks team. The Seahawks have

386
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Speaker 5: owned the Cardinals under McDonald because they own Kyler Murray,

387
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Speaker 5: own him. He can do nothing against them over the

388
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Speaker 5: past three games. Over the past two seasons, he's averaging

389
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Speaker 5: about six yards per attempt. He has five interceptions and

390
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Speaker 5: thirteen sacks. Just killer neglig plays.

391
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Speaker 3: So that's just Kyler Murray though it's just not no that.

392
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Speaker 5: But it's even war I mean it. So the Arizon

393
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Speaker 5: has changed some of its offense, some of the play

394
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Speaker 5: action usage, and Bersett just has a better command of

395
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Speaker 5: this offense right now. There's a reason they just told

396
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Speaker 5: Murray to go away. Don't think that has anything to

397
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Speaker 5: do with his injury. And then the defense, the Cardinals

398
00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,439
Speaker 5: defense is I think one of the most underappreciated units

399
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,360
Speaker 5: in the league. And by the way, in the first matchup,

400
00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:29,159
Speaker 5: the Cardinals in cardinal fashion, lost twenty three to twenty.

401
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 5: They held the Seattle offense down as well as anyone

402
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Speaker 5: we've seen.

403
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,679
Speaker 3: Jason had like no catches through three quarters or something like,

404
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,120
Speaker 3: or two and a half quarters like or one catch

405
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:38,719
Speaker 3: something like that.

406
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Speaker 5: And Will Johnson and Gary Williams didn't even play in

407
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Speaker 5: that game. They were without their all their corners. And

408
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Speaker 5: here's the thing, here's what Seattle is doing right now.

409
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Speaker 5: And I'm a believer in Seattle. Have him as a

410
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Speaker 5: top five team, tough five power of a team right now. Also,

411
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Speaker 5: Walter Nolan made his debut. He was amazing. Gives him

412
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:59,240
Speaker 5: more juice on the defensive line. And Narnie Jones might

413
00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 5: miss for Seattle. That's a big especially against the run.

414
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Speaker 6: And like that.

415
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Speaker 5: Seattle doesn't have depth there so he like that that

416
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:13,479
Speaker 5: could be a big loss. So this defense which Will

417
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:14,879
Speaker 5: have now, I have Will Johnson's been one of the

418
00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:16,800
Speaker 5: best corners in the NFL this year as a rookie,

419
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,399
Speaker 5: Garay Williams, le back Walter no one in there. So

420
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Speaker 5: this defense just has much many more pieces than it does.

421
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 5: But with all their three high safety looks, they don't blitz,

422
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Speaker 5: they don't take the bait. So like Seattle, Sam Donald

423
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 5: has been arguably the best quarterback. I think you could

424
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,120
Speaker 5: say that he's been the best quarterback in the NFL here,

425
00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 5: and he's been unbelievable. He's been amazing, and he's been

426
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,600
Speaker 5: incredible against the blitz. Well, the Cardinals don't blitz. Been

427
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 5: incredible on play action. Cardinals are pretty good in that department,

428
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 5: and he's been awesome with explosive passes. Well, Arizona's elite

429
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 5: in that aspect and preventing explosive plays. They're gonna keep

430
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Speaker 5: everything in front of him and they're not gonna blitz.

431
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Speaker 5: And here's the thing what Seattle is doing. They can't

432
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 5: really run the ball efficiently, but they do it because

433
00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 5: it sets up everything.

434
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 6: Thing.

435
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 5: You know, they go heavy a lot, and it sets

436
00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 5: up all the play acts, and it sets up all

437
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 5: the deep shots. And jes M's are even the best receiver.

438
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 5: But Arizona's defense and everyone's been biting for it, and

439
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 5: they're playing Arizona's defense. Won't They can play the run

440
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 5: here without bringing safeties down, without you know, compromising their

441
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 5: back end. So I think that they're set up to

442
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:26,399
Speaker 5: actually contain this. Seattle offense. So I think we're at

443
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 5: the very peak of the Seahawks in the market. Could

444
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 5: be wrong, but you know now that they're in the

445
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 5: top five, and I still think Arizona is undervalued. And

446
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,560
Speaker 5: by the way, this Arizona team, I mean, they've lost

447
00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:41,119
Speaker 5: three games at the at the buzzer. They have not

448
00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 5: lost by more than four all year, and two of

449
00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 5: those were with Brissette at Indianapolis and against the Packers.

450
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:53,120
Speaker 5: It's not like Brissette hasn't played anybody, and this team

451
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 5: will be in every game. So uh in Seattle, for

452
00:23:56,200 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 5: whatever reason, on the McDonald they just go on the

453
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:00,159
Speaker 5: road and destroy everyone. But they haven't been great. It's

454
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 5: the number at home divisional game. Home field isn't as much.

455
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:10,919
Speaker 5: So yeah, I like Arizona here to hold this explosive

456
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 5: Seattle offense and check and keep it close enough with

457
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 5: an improved offense with percent at the helm and cover

458
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:20,920
Speaker 5: this number. But it's at six and a half weight.

459
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 5: See if you can get a seven. But I'll be

460
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 5: on it regardless to give me Arizona.

461
00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Seattle. I mean, I thought the peak

462
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 3: of the market was last week and silly me, but

463
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 3: I do, I do like the move they made for Shahi,

464
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 3: you know, familiar with the offense. That's gonna help.

465
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 6: But how much different is shahe than Horton though, like probably.

466
00:24:40,040 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 3: Like it's better than Kevin just like having to rely

467
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 3: on Cup, you know, like now they have Juis, but

468
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 3: they don't use.

469
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:46,399
Speaker 6: A ton of lone.

470
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 5: You think they're gonna use more eleven person, I don't

471
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 5: know that kind of like if defeats how affected their offense?

472
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean yes and no, because I was like

473
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 3: part of my cap coming into that Commander's game is okay,

474
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 3: the Commanders you know, defense not good, but they do

475
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 3: man up play some single high you tend to need

476
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,159
Speaker 3: to beat that with you know more uh, you know,

477
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 3: wide receiver centric schemes and Seattle just wasn't in a

478
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 3: position to do that last week with everyone hurt. So

479
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 3: it's a good move for them going forward. Does it

480
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:16,399
Speaker 3: make a big impact in this game? Maybe maybe not?

481
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 3: But I agree with Arizona. I mean Arizona is just

482
00:25:19,359 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 3: they're gonna sit They're gonna just kind of sit back in. Yeah. Yeah,

483
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 3: And that's the kind of you know, that's what you

484
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 3: need to do. Just flow Seattle down. Let you know,

485
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 3: drag things out longer drives more likely Donald makes some

486
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:35,639
Speaker 3: mistakes kind of like you know the Colts like you

487
00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:39,160
Speaker 3: gotta gotta just chill out and just let Daniel Jones

488
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 3: screw up. You can't like over feel aggressive. So I

489
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 3: think the good spot for Arizona like short week, but uh,

490
00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 3: they're a lot better withs like big Bride scores touchdowns. Harrison,

491
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 3: like you said, is present, They didn't. I don't think

492
00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 3: the targeted z dro Yeah, I don't think they targeted

493
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 3: Zay Jones, which good. So yeah, I think this team

494
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 3: is just getting a lot smarter. And you know, quarterback

495
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 3: has a lot you know, dictates that to a large extent,

496
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 3: and Verssette ran for a touchdown last week, So what

497
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 3: is he giving? What is Kyle're giving you? At this point?

498
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 3: That verse camp. The Action Network podcast is sponsored by

499
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524
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Speaker 3: All right, for my second pick, the fourth overall of

525
00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:54,520
Speaker 3: the week ten Sunday six pack, I'm rolling with San

526
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 3: Francisco forty nine ers plus four and a half at

527
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:02,560
Speaker 3: home against the Rams. Now, the Rams are great. They

528
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,919
Speaker 3: they're right there. Dem and Seattle I think are the

529
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,160
Speaker 3: cream of the crop right now in the NFC, probably

530
00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 3: better than the you know, Lions and Eagles, who everyone

531
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 3: I think has has up there. But number one, this

532
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 3: is always going to be a Niner spot for me.

533
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:23,160
Speaker 3: You know, home dog first of all, four and a half.

534
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:24,760
Speaker 3: I mean this number was just three and a half.

535
00:28:24,760 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 3: It's it's continuing to grow. They played early. Now the

536
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 3: worst thing about this is that they played earlier and

537
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 3: in the season and the Niners escape with that win

538
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,720
Speaker 3: after Kyron fumbled and you know, so this is a

539
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 3: revenge spot for the Rams. But Shanahan tends to have

540
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 3: McVay mcveagh's number in these spots. The Niners defense is

541
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 3: still decimated. But Matthew staff it's not like Matthew Stafford

542
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:53,239
Speaker 3: is scrambling. He's just gonna throw, you know, he's just

543
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 3: gonna throw his touchdowns. But like this, this Nier offense,

544
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 3: I think it can put up points on the Rams too.

545
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 3: At home. You know the Rams won't be as good

546
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 3: I think outdoors. And what I mean, the Rams have

547
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 3: played the the Saints like this Jaguars offense who's done nothing.

548
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 3: So you know, the Niners offense won't be any less

549
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 3: healthy really than it was in the Week five when

550
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 3: Mac Jones went off. I think it's gonna be Mac

551
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 3: Jones again. But either way, you might get pearsall back

552
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 3: find me this week. I don't know. He might be

553
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 3: a figurment of our imagination. But for the Rams, you know,

554
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 3: Hooka Nakua could be banged up. He seems to be

555
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 3: getting knocked out of every game at this point. He

556
00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 3: still puts up you know, top ten numbers. But I

557
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 3: just think this, you know, this coaching matchup is kind

558
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 3: of the equalizer here, and now you're getting you know,

559
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 3: four and a half at home for this Niners team.

560
00:29:49,480 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 3: I don't I just think this is more of a

561
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 3: you know, two inside of a field goal type of

562
00:29:55,080 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 3: situation here. If you look at the Shanahan McVeigh matchup

563
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:09,320
Speaker 3: money line, Shanahan has a thirty seven percent ROI against McVeigh,

564
00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 3: a sixty one percent straight up winning percentage. So if

565
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 3: you had just blind me back every one of these

566
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 3: spots on the money line, you would be making a killing. Now,

567
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:23,959
Speaker 3: same record spread in money line, so I'll probably have

568
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 3: some money line here to McVeigh off a multi game

569
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 3: winning streak. This Brams team could come back down and

570
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 3: earth the little uh seventeen and twenty eight against the

571
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 3: spread just thirty eight percent. We'll see what happens with

572
00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 3: the kicker. But remember road game outdoors in San Francisco,

573
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 3: so that kicker would come into into play. And if

574
00:30:48,040 --> 00:30:51,959
Speaker 3: for some reason Cardy isn't the kicker, then you know, Dan,

575
00:30:52,000 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 3: you lose some of the kickoff stuff that he does well.

576
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 3: But you know mcvay's kind of getting fed up with

577
00:30:56,360 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 3: the field goals. So either way, I think that works

578
00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:03,719
Speaker 3: in the niners favor. And yeah, this is just this

579
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 3: is just a coach and mashup game for me. Four

580
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 3: and a half. I think this number is too big.

581
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 3: I can't get there, kit. I don't expect the Rams.

582
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 3: I think the Rams. This might be a field goal

583
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 3: type of game for the Rams, So give me anything

584
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 3: over a field goal forty nine ers.

585
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 5: I'll have more on this game later, but I will

586
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:25,280
Speaker 5: say Since twenty nineteen, these teams have faced each other

587
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 5: fourteen times, including the playoffs. Underdog thirteen and one against

588
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 5: the spread ridiculous ten out of fourteen dog one out right.

589
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:37,640
Speaker 5: For my third pick and the fifth overall of the

590
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,600
Speaker 5: week ten Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Baltimore

591
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 5: Ravens first half minus two and a half at the

592
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 5: Minnesota Vikings. Going back to Overlive, We're I mean. I

593
00:31:47,280 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 5: can give you the stats Harbo Extra Prep first half

594
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 5: against the spread sixty two, twelve and five against the

595
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 5: spread on the road in the first half ten and

596
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,240
Speaker 5: three against the spread has a road favorite in the

597
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 5: first half with Extra Preps seventy seven percent covering by

598
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 5: a field goal per game, which is insane. And I

599
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 5: need to get to Lamar, who's the goat in the

600
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 5: first half sixty one to thirty six and two against

601
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 5: the spread sixty three percent covering by a field goal

602
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 5: per game as a favorite, fifty three thirty and two

603
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:17,440
Speaker 5: covering by over a field goal per game, which is

604
00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:19,479
Speaker 5: insane as a favorite covering by over a field goal

605
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 5: per game. How about it as a road favorite twenty

606
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 5: eight to ten to one against the spread seventy four percent,

607
00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 5: covering by five points per game. Extra time for Lamar

608
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 5: to prep extra time for Harball, I mean, excuse me,

609
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 5: extra time for Lamar to heal up get even healthier.

610
00:32:37,560 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 5: I think his mobility will be better here. The offense

611
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 5: is one hundred percent healthy. They can run how they

612
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 5: ran last year, all all the personnel groupings that they

613
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,959
Speaker 5: want to run. This offense now is at full strength.

614
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 5: And by the way, the defense now is as healthy

615
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 5: as it's going to be all year. The defensive line

616
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 5: still the biggest question mark on the team. I wish

617
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 5: they added someone they had it Raymond Jones, But the

618
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 5: Vikings aren't really an efficient rushing attack like they are

619
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 5: what I think they're bottom ten epa per rush rushed

620
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:13,400
Speaker 5: success rate.

621
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 3: Jones banged up too, yep.

622
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,600
Speaker 5: Jones banged up, so I don't think they can fully

623
00:33:18,640 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 5: take advantage and the Ravens in order to generate pressure,

624
00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 5: they're blitzing more. McCarthy has looked lost against the blitz

625
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:26,920
Speaker 5: so far, but Lamar against these NFC teams early on

626
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 5: in games, they're usually well prepared and it just takes

627
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 5: some time for these teams, especially when they see Lamar

628
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 5: for the first time, to adjust and what are the

629
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 5: Vikings like to do? They like the blitz Lamar. You

630
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 5: don't want to blitz Lamar this year Against the blitz

631
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 5: He's which he's seen at the seventh highest rate, which

632
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 5: is insane. I don't know why teams are blitzing that high.

633
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 5: He has a seventy nine percent completion percentage, which is

634
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 5: the highest in the NFL by far. I think the

635
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 5: next is like seventy two seven touchdowns, one interception, and

636
00:33:56,200 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 5: with a seventy nine percent completion percentage, he has the

637
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 5: second highest yards per attempt at the four highest ay

638
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 5: DOT last year he ripped apart the blitz as well.

639
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 5: Raven's also number one and explosive run percentage of Vikings

640
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:11,399
Speaker 5: struggle in that department. So yeah, I think Raven's sense

641
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,399
Speaker 5: of urgency. Everything I'm hearing around the team is good.

642
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,759
Speaker 5: Just ride with Lamar in the first half. I thought

643
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 5: McCarthy made some nice throws last week, but didn't have

644
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 5: to do much. I think that was more about goth

645
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,760
Speaker 5: the offensive line injuries, not being able to handle the blitz,

646
00:34:25,600 --> 00:34:29,320
Speaker 5: and his Vikings offense I think is still going to

647
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:31,959
Speaker 5: be limited. Ravens trending up on both sides of the ball.

648
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 5: I like the Ravens to jump out here.

649
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean you're probably the best Ravens Andndy caapper

650
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 3: I no period, So I always trust you with the Ravens.

651
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 3: They're kind of a hard team to back because the

652
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 3: was favored by so much. But yeah, lamar against NFC

653
00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 3: and now I was all the Vikings last.

654
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 6: Week and start I joined you.

655
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 3: Yeah it started out well, but yeah McCarthy wasn't as

656
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:58,160
Speaker 3: impressive as maybe the final score would have looked if

657
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 3: you just didn't really see the game. I mean a

658
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 3: lot of it was. Vikings were just healthier last week.

659
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:07,840
Speaker 3: And you know, now, I think it's getting a little obsessive.

660
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 3: You know, the Vikings were what where they get to

661
00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 3: like nine to nine and a half last week and

662
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:14,960
Speaker 3: and now they're sitting here. I know they're at home,

663
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:17,919
Speaker 3: but still, you know, talking about I saw the number

664
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 3: get down to three and a half earlier today and

665
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 3: like this Vikings. This Ravens team, to your point, offensively

666
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 3: as healthy as they've been all year. And that's significant

667
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,040
Speaker 3: because this is a team that runs so many different

668
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 3: heavy personnel group because it's not like most teams are

669
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 3: just you know, one one on pass downs and you

670
00:35:39,520 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 3: know whatever their go to is on you know an

671
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,919
Speaker 3: early downs heavy like you know one two tight ends

672
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 3: for most teams. Some some teams do a fullback, but

673
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 3: the Ravens mix it up and I think and they

674
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 3: have the element of Lamar running, So I think that's

675
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 3: that helps. Henry. You can't blitz Lamr, so that just

676
00:35:55,400 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 3: takes a whole it's and you're going from actually GoF

677
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:05,000
Speaker 3: to the speed of Lamar in one week. So yeah,

678
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 3: it's it's just a tough spot. And we've seen this

679
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 3: Vikings team just unravel on both sides of the ball

680
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 3: at different points. So yeah, I think this it makes

681
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:17,000
Speaker 3: sense for the Ravens to get it done here. Yeah.

682
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 5: I think extra prep helps too because I do remember

683
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 5: what I think Lamars faced Floras twice once. I think

684
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,080
Speaker 5: once they won fifty nine to ten, but there was

685
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:30,040
Speaker 5: a short there was a short week game when Flora

686
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 5: is on a Thursday night in Miami.

687
00:36:32,680 --> 00:36:34,720
Speaker 6: Do you remember this and the Mark.

688
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:36,359
Speaker 3: Yes, he couldn't do nothing.

689
00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, against the Blitz on a short week, he

690
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:42,640
Speaker 5: was lok. They blitzed Uh, they ran the same blitz

691
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:43,879
Speaker 5: thirty seven times in the game.

692
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 6: Who Vikings.

693
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 3: Who's the I remember I'm seeing an image of I

694
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 3: think it was a dolphin player like flipped up in

695
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:56,000
Speaker 3: the air and did like the craziest like just landed

696
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 3: on his head like, but didn't get in the end zone.

697
00:36:57,840 --> 00:36:59,799
Speaker 3: Do you remember who that was that same game?

698
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,600
Speaker 5: I forget that that was I remember, But yeah, they

699
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 5: blitzed like a million times and so but I think

700
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:10,799
Speaker 5: having the extra prep here and generally for the past

701
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:12,800
Speaker 5: couple of years, especially as his career has gone on

702
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 5: La Mars, like basically unblitzable. So yeah, I like the

703
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 5: Ravens to get a get a lead here.

704
00:37:19,360 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 6: Where are you going? For the final pick?

705
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 3: For my third pick, final pick and the final pick

706
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:27,839
Speaker 3: of the week ten Sunday six pack going with the

707
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 3: New York Football Giants plus four and a half at

708
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:36,120
Speaker 3: the Chicago Bears, now number one. There is a rare

709
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 3: a rated luck rankings game. The Giants have been one

710
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 3: of the most unlucky teams this season. Now it looks

711
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 3: like they're just horrible with Jackson tyret, but if you

712
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:54,760
Speaker 3: peak under the hood, they're about point oh four epa

713
00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:55,320
Speaker 3: per play.

714
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:56,719
Speaker 6: I think dark and good.

715
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 3: Yeah I did too, but it has always shown up

716
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,239
Speaker 3: up in the final scores. So if you look at

717
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 3: the offense compared to their season long numbers, they're about

718
00:38:05,520 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 3: about to zero point four EPA play better, which that

719
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:13,399
Speaker 3: essentially takes this from you know what would be you know,

720
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 3: Bears favored by what they are two more inside of

721
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:21,959
Speaker 3: field goal, and I think this Bears team, it's hard

722
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 3: to fully handicap them, especially in a spot like this

723
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:29,360
Speaker 3: against the Giants, because the schedules, I mean, the Bears

724
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 3: schedule this year, they faced one of the easiest third

725
00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 3: easiest according to DVOA. Only New England and Buffalo have

726
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 3: faced easier schedules. And you look at the Bears and

727
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 3: they needed a second touchdown from their number from a

728
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 3: guy who entered the game essentially as their number two

729
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:54,880
Speaker 3: tight end, you know, to win that game. Their defense

730
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 3: is not good. The Giants defense is not good either,

731
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:02,319
Speaker 3: but that's priced in four and a half. Now you're

732
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:04,600
Speaker 3: talking about over a field goal, over a hook even

733
00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:09,919
Speaker 3: and this Bears defense, what is it? I mean everyone yeah,

734
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 3: and everyone wants to kind of knock the Giants defense.

735
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 3: It's not good. But you know, guys have been missing.

736
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:17,800
Speaker 3: Maybe we'll get some guys back this week.

737
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 5: Who's also their own line, like are Schmid's Illumini.

738
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 6: I know that they're not great.

739
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 3: But helps it.

740
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 6: Yeah yeah, he helps there. But like Holland.

741
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 3: Flaw, uh yeah, all like thet Yeah.

742
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:36,800
Speaker 6: They're gonna play that's the major.

743
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 3: There's a chance. I mean, I'm just kind of banking on.

744
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 3: It's early in the week. I want to play this

745
00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:44,680
Speaker 3: number now because I make this number. I mean, my

746
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 3: doubts is closing in on a field goal here. I

747
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 3: just think these are two bad teams of bad defenses,

748
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 3: and I think Caleb Williams is more likely to make

749
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 3: a costly mistake than they even dart in this spot.

750
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:00,759
Speaker 3: And you know, the Bears, I'm I mean, they're they're

751
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 3: not super healthy on defense. I know they've made a trade,

752
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 3: but uh, you know, they lost their Gordon they like this,

753
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:11,880
Speaker 3: this is just a defense that got shredded by Joe Flacco.

754
00:40:12,160 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 3: Who Yeah, and.

755
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:17,600
Speaker 6: That's you know, they can't get a pass rush.

756
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,279
Speaker 3: They can't get a pass ruch. Giants have Slayton back,

757
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 3: which usually doesn't it's not as a non factor, but

758
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 3: I mean they're just they're just throwing everything at the

759
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 3: wall now at a receiver, and I think it's actually

760
00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:30,520
Speaker 3: benefiting them because now they're at the point where they

761
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 3: don't play highatt like you know eighty percent of the

762
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:35,919
Speaker 3: time when they need a third receiver, like we saw

763
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 3: Chefski make a play last week. H they were get

764
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 3: they were mixing it. Bo Collins more Bellinger, Uh, if

765
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 3: he's back, I don't think he is, but they Fidoni

766
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 3: that number two tight end. He can he can do

767
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:50,439
Speaker 3: some things. So I think the Giants are trending up offensively,

768
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 3: I think, and I think they've just been super unlucky

769
00:40:53,960 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 3: with Jackson Dart, who has been excellent compared to Russell Wilson.

770
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 3: I mean, when you're when you're adding close to like

771
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 3: zero point oh five epa per play, that that coulds

772
00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 3: definitely changed an offense over the course of you know,

773
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 3: sixty plays. And the reason Dart has so much impact

774
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 3: is because he's running the ball. A nice call on

775
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:17,359
Speaker 3: the touchdown last week. But there's just nothing. I don't

776
00:41:17,360 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 3: expect this Bears defense to get stops and the Giants

777
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,880
Speaker 3: still do have a pass rush here the Bears, we

778
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:27,879
Speaker 3: know what they're gonna do. They're probably gonna go run heavy,

779
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 3: I know.

780
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 6: I mean they're over New York.

781
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, don't have some still have success doing it.

782
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,879
Speaker 5: But this is the best rushing offensive for the past

783
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 5: month versus is the worst rushing defense in the league.

784
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 5: So they're gonna have success running. But I do think

785
00:41:39,000 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 5: the Giants can keep up back. So like and I

786
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,399
Speaker 5: think this line at four and a half has gone

787
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:46,880
Speaker 5: a little too high because the Bears defense, it's been

788
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 5: so turned over over line and uh, without that, they

789
00:41:51,000 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 5: they can't stop anything. For what it's worth, Schmid's was

790
00:41:53,680 --> 00:41:57,160
Speaker 5: didn't practice Luminar, didn't practice Gano. That's anothering I'm working

791
00:41:57,160 --> 00:42:00,760
Speaker 5: about the Giants, Like who's gonna be kicking? Uh Adebo

792
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 5: was on the side with trainers Bellinger, Flat and Holland

793
00:42:03,920 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 5: were participating in the brief open.

794
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 3: That's that's really good. So question So, yeah, he's probably missing,

795
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 3: but if I can get like a Holland and Ballander

796
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 3: is actually big for their offense because that just gives

797
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,839
Speaker 3: him another option now with and you have Slaton back.

798
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 3: So like dark, I think he's he knows where to

799
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,720
Speaker 3: go to the ball, he knows when to scramble. Hopefully

800
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:26,160
Speaker 3: he just doesn't throw the ball on the ground like

801
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 3: he did against the Saints a few weeks ago. But

802
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 3: I've been impressed with Dart and if you like a

803
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 3: lot of the metrics for the Bears, I mean, how

804
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 3: good because look at the you know, I don't even

805
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 3: mentioned the Giants schedule because the Bears, we know, they

806
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:41,399
Speaker 3: faced their Raiders, and they face the Bengals, and they

807
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 3: faced all these Commanders, all these atrocious defenses. Giants are

808
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:49,360
Speaker 3: are one, but probably a little better, especially if they

809
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 3: get a couple of guys back. But Jackson Dart is

810
00:42:54,200 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 3: number twelve in adjusted EPA per play, Caleb Williams is

811
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 3: number twenty one. And that's with like that, all these

812
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 3: terrible defenses, you know, so facing all these terrible defenses,

813
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 3: and the Giants have faced the Niners, who yeah they're bad,

814
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 3: but Eagles, Broncos, like the Giants have faced some formidable

815
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:23,880
Speaker 3: just opponents period. So I think that's kind of the

816
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 3: equalizer for me, is that there could be some unrealized

817
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 3: schedule adjustment. Like it's always tricky, but we are at

818
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:32,760
Speaker 3: the point in the season where we know the teams

819
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:34,360
Speaker 3: that are bad, and they happen to be all the

820
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:37,920
Speaker 3: teams that the Bears have faced. I mean the Raiders,

821
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 3: the Raiders, the commanders the Bengals. It's just it's just

822
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:48,839
Speaker 3: like a comedy of terrible, terrible defenses. So I could

823
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:51,640
Speaker 3: see the Bears kind of struggling a little bit here.

824
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 3: And now you know the Giants, like if they get

825
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 3: guys in the secondary back at all, do they play

826
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 3: more aggressive? Like do they try to devote more resources

827
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 3: to the run because we saw a Roman dunes that

828
00:44:03,600 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 3: could go missing? Uh, you know so? And how much?

829
00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:08,960
Speaker 3: You know? What is the what are the Bears going

830
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:12,680
Speaker 3: to do with the menan drive versus Swift? Like is

831
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,560
Speaker 3: it just his backfield now? Because he looked great? But

832
00:44:16,480 --> 00:44:18,400
Speaker 3: they're just so for me, I think this might be

833
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:21,399
Speaker 3: the top of the market. It sounds crazy, but you know,

834
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 3: this Bears team that I think is just still a

835
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 3: bottom bottom third team favored by four and a half

836
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 3: against this similar team. Give me the Giants and eight

837
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:38,759
Speaker 3: rated luck game that usually means a cover rate over

838
00:44:39,280 --> 00:44:43,399
Speaker 3: ad er over sixty percent historically, So so you don't

839
00:44:43,400 --> 00:44:46,879
Speaker 3: get one of the two annual Giants kicker, oh my god,

840
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:48,359
Speaker 3: good in practice today.

841
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 6: I don't even know who they would sign.

842
00:44:50,520 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 3: Just not the not the what is it the international guy?

843
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:55,080
Speaker 6: He's not?

844
00:44:55,120 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, but I mean, you know how they break

845
00:44:57,080 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 3: they cannot. Don't they have a young old hole? Don't

846
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 3: they have an old hole.

847
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:05,800
Speaker 6: I don't know what he might be on the practice squad.

848
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:12,040
Speaker 3: Anyone, Just make sure if good has any type of

849
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 3: questionable just elevate a second kicker, because that it's always

850
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:18,879
Speaker 3: ridiculous how it's happened like three or four times, and

851
00:45:19,239 --> 00:45:21,760
Speaker 3: yeah that it would be terrible. But four and a half,

852
00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:25,080
Speaker 3: I mean it's probably just gonna come down to sid Bears.

853
00:45:25,320 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 6: Uh.

854
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, like they give him there's four and a half

855
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 3: because they won by five last week. A guy very

856
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 3: bear should have got the bear should watch that game.

857
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 3: But I digress. Let's see what we got. I know

858
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 3: it's gonna be ugly here. We got jats in Dark,

859
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:48,920
Speaker 3: Matt Jones or a turf Toed rock Porty.

860
00:45:50,160 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 2: Davis Mills, Kobe Brissette, Uh, Mariota Mariota and at least

861
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 2: yeah he's but that's kind of how you do on

862
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:02,839
Speaker 2: the six pack.

863
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, like five five, five shaky one dark has a

864
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:12,200
Speaker 3: good futures, but yeah, five shaky and one elit. That's

865
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 3: that's how we do it. So that was our week

866
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:17,080
Speaker 3: ten Sunday six pack. If you'd like to tail some

867
00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:19,840
Speaker 3: of these picks, just look for the quick slip link

868
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 3: in the podcast and video description and make sure to

869
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:25,759
Speaker 3: sign up for Action Pro for instant notifications when all

870
00:46:25,840 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 3: of our bets are tracked. Now it's time for our

871
00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 3: favorite totals. I'll start us off here stuck. Since you

872
00:46:32,200 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 3: started us on the six pack, I'm gonna go with

873
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 3: the Patriots Bucks over forty eight and a half. Some

874
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 3: forty eight's out there, but it doesn't matter for the contest,

875
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:46,560
Speaker 3: but see if you can get the the clean forty eight.

876
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:50,160
Speaker 3: But either way, I think this should be a high

877
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:54,600
Speaker 3: scoring game for a couple of reasons. Number one, Yes,

878
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 3: these defenses have you know, made plays at certain times,

879
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 3: but this is not This does not set up as

880
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 3: a running type of game.

881
00:47:04,160 --> 00:47:06,319
Speaker 6: Yeah, this is two pass funnels.

882
00:47:06,200 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 3: Two pass funnel bs, and two passers that can move

883
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:14,799
Speaker 3: around in the pocket that tend to just have some

884
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:19,239
Speaker 3: of the best like inexplicable luck when they let it

885
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:23,919
Speaker 3: let it rip. So a lot of explosive passing because

886
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 3: you're gonna get blitzes which take guys out of coverage

887
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 3: on both sides. Uh, You're gonna get single high coverages,

888
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:33,920
Speaker 3: especially from the Patriots probably in the spot that's what

889
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:38,400
Speaker 3: we want for points. And yeah, the Bucks are still

890
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 3: banged up offensively. They're not gonna be at peak format

891
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:45,080
Speaker 3: receiver probably for the rest of the year. But they're

892
00:47:45,120 --> 00:47:49,840
Speaker 3: coming off a buye they and I thought there was

893
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:52,320
Speaker 3: I mean, they just keep churning guys out. It hasn't

894
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:58,240
Speaker 3: really mattered too much in terms of their production. Teded Johnson.

895
00:47:59,280 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 6: Name but yeah, you can't really run against the Patriots anyway.

896
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:06,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's and so and the Patriots. Because the Lion

897
00:48:06,520 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 3: and the Lions matchup, you started to get worried because

898
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, we think the Lions have exploitable d

899
00:48:12,840 --> 00:48:16,879
Speaker 3: but they do rank highly in in uh in the

900
00:48:17,000 --> 00:48:19,880
Speaker 3: in the advanced metrics, and you know, they have some

901
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:20,919
Speaker 3: some studs on that.

902
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:23,440
Speaker 5: Defense off though too, Like he missed a wide up

903
00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:26,319
Speaker 5: and touchdown. He was missing throws and he's always doing

904
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:28,399
Speaker 5: with some injuries. Like yeah, so I think the Bible

905
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:30,400
Speaker 5: we probably served him well, right.

906
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 3: And so this Patriots defense trending up a little bit.

907
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:36,840
Speaker 3: They're kind of making moves and you know, you figured

908
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:40,080
Speaker 3: Vrabel was gonna kind of, uh, you know, get the

909
00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:43,239
Speaker 3: guys that he wants on the roster. But it's not

910
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 3: a good defense statistically against the past. And that's all

911
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:48,760
Speaker 3: I really need here because it looks like Bucky Irvings

912
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,239
Speaker 3: is still not I mean, it's just unfortunate. Looks like

913
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 3: he's still not gonna be a go here. Probably not,

914
00:48:57,160 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, And that was kind of predictable even

915
00:48:59,520 --> 00:49:02,520
Speaker 3: coming into it, just God would had that wasn't a

916
00:49:02,560 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 3: normal injury. I mean, it was a really rough rehab

917
00:49:04,960 --> 00:49:07,840
Speaker 3: process for him. It just sounded like they weren't expecting

918
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:11,879
Speaker 3: him to be back. But you still have the buy

919
00:49:12,400 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 3: and remember Mayfield's already done this. We already saw him

920
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:19,799
Speaker 3: throw touchdowns to Ryan Miller, Cam Johnson, Kez Johnson. I mean,

921
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:22,280
Speaker 3: who hasn't put a touchdown from Baker at wide receiver

922
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:24,880
Speaker 3: for the Bucks. I mean, it just doesn't matter. And

923
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:27,279
Speaker 3: then Abuca, really I think is the key should be

924
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:32,840
Speaker 3: a lot healthier. Christigan Zales. I think he's gonna probably

925
00:49:32,920 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 3: end up going because it wasn't a concussion. Initially thought

926
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,839
Speaker 3: it was a concussion with him, which would have made

927
00:49:38,840 --> 00:49:42,759
Speaker 3: the over even more attractive. But just give me two

928
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:45,640
Speaker 3: quarterbacks that can scramble around, two teams that are probably smart

929
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 3: enough not to try to run it on the other Uh.

930
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 3: And you know, the Patriots are coming off a game

931
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,399
Speaker 3: where they were able to run the ball, two games

932
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:56,239
Speaker 3: really where they were able to run the ball. You

933
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:58,800
Speaker 3: can't run on the Bucks, so I think that's a barrage.

934
00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 3: And you know Bucks went super run heavy, super run

935
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:09,400
Speaker 3: heavy against the Saints. Now this defense kind of dictates

936
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:13,720
Speaker 3: the opposite. So you could get here in the first

937
00:50:13,760 --> 00:50:15,880
Speaker 3: half if things you know, if you get like a

938
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:19,360
Speaker 3: turnover or anything crazy and special teams. So give me

939
00:50:19,400 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 3: the over forty eight and a half Patriots and Bucks,

940
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 3: where are you going?

941
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:27,920
Speaker 6: Yeah, I don't mind that.

942
00:50:28,040 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 5: Also, because of the injuries of wide receiver, Buck's been

943
00:50:30,040 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 5: using more heavy personnel and the Patriots have really really

944
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:37,920
Speaker 5: struggled in past defense against heavy personnel.

945
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:38,800
Speaker 6: Weather.

946
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 5: It looks like it should be okay, we's got to

947
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:41,880
Speaker 5: check that.

948
00:50:43,040 --> 00:50:44,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, outdoor games in November.

949
00:50:45,560 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 3: But it's in It's in Florida though, so that's general.

950
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:53,640
Speaker 5: No, But I mean like storms and wind like there.

951
00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 5: It doesn't look like it's going to be bad. Yeah,

952
00:50:57,239 --> 00:51:01,279
Speaker 5: win's fine, it does. I think Gonzales is going to

953
00:51:01,320 --> 00:51:04,839
Speaker 5: go for it's worth all right for my total. I'm

954
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 5: gonna go with the forty nine ers Rams over forty

955
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:09,799
Speaker 5: nine and a half. A couple of reasons here. I

956
00:51:09,840 --> 00:51:12,600
Speaker 5: think that the Rams right now are the most overrated

957
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:16,399
Speaker 5: defense in the NFL. Like they're they're like number one

958
00:51:16,400 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 5: in EPA per play, like they're like number look at

959
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:21,160
Speaker 5: a lot of the advanced metrics, they're like number one. Well,

960
00:51:22,200 --> 00:51:26,040
Speaker 5: they played the Jags in London. They played the Saints

961
00:51:26,120 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 5: last week with Shuck and whatever they were doing. They

962
00:51:29,160 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 5: played the Ravens with Cooper Rush. You know, they played

963
00:51:33,640 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 5: the that beat up forty nine Ers offense and they

964
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:41,160
Speaker 5: gave up six lost in overtime. You know, they played

965
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 5: the Eagles and they let the Eagles come all the

966
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 5: way back somehow, scoring like twenty eight points on them.

967
00:51:46,080 --> 00:51:48,360
Speaker 5: But they also played the Titans. They played the Texans

968
00:51:48,400 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 5: offense like their schedule, and they did play the Colts,

969
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 5: and the Colts dropped the ball at the end zone

970
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:58,600
Speaker 5: or they probably would have gotten too the thirties. So this,

971
00:51:58,600 --> 00:52:01,440
Speaker 5: this defense, I think is extremely overrated. And I just

972
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:05,880
Speaker 5: don't think we know how bad this forty nine Ers

973
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:08,239
Speaker 5: defense might be with all the injuries I mean they are,

974
00:52:08,280 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 5: I mean, they just lose more guys every week. I mean,

975
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:12,040
Speaker 5: now you're talking like we already talked about Bosaid Warner,

976
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:15,319
Speaker 5: but now you've got guys like Gross Mattos and Williams

977
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 5: and like it's it's insane. So and and by the way,

978
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:21,920
Speaker 5: this forty nine Ers shellion the defense which got carved

979
00:52:22,000 --> 00:52:26,919
Speaker 5: up by Houston. They also let the Giants get twenty four.

980
00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:31,360
Speaker 5: But this is not and this is not those offenses.

981
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:34,719
Speaker 5: This is the Rams offense with Nicola back. It's huge

982
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,680
Speaker 5: against their zones and the Rams offense is arguably the

983
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 5: best in the league at the moment. They're gonna score here.

984
00:52:41,760 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 5: I think the forty nine is gonna score. And this

985
00:52:43,120 --> 00:52:45,000
Speaker 5: a couple other things, like the forty nine Ers are

986
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:51,640
Speaker 5: faster this year. They're passing more and the Rams are fast.

987
00:52:51,680 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 5: The Rams are gonna throw a lot, and the Rams

988
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:56,800
Speaker 5: also that the kicker issue.

989
00:52:57,120 --> 00:52:59,080
Speaker 3: Maybe one thing about the Rams I was gonna say

990
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 3: is do you think they continue to go with the

991
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:07,160
Speaker 3: super high uptick in in heavy and because they had

992
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:09,640
Speaker 3: they I think they were in one three like thirty

993
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:11,920
Speaker 3: percent of the time last week, So that does make

994
00:53:11,960 --> 00:53:13,600
Speaker 3: them a whittal sooler, But they still have fast tight

995
00:53:13,680 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 3: ends outside of oside of Higbee, but any thoughts on that.

996
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:18,719
Speaker 6: I'm not even worried about the Ram Like the Rams

997
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:19,279
Speaker 6: are going to score.

998
00:53:19,480 --> 00:53:22,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, but the forty nine ers are not like your slow,

999
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 5: dead last that we've seen in the past, and I

1000
00:53:27,200 --> 00:53:28,879
Speaker 5: think that they want to throw her now. A couple

1001
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:31,320
Speaker 5: of other things, the Rams kicker issues. I think I

1002
00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:33,440
Speaker 5: saw they signed me this today. They might be a

1003
00:53:33,440 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 5: little bit more aggressive on fourth downs. Additionally, last time

1004
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:42,920
Speaker 5: mac Jones just carved them up underneath. I would imagine

1005
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:45,160
Speaker 5: they're going to make some adjustments. So I think the

1006
00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:47,880
Speaker 5: fort Niners will have some more opportunities at some explosive

1007
00:53:48,320 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 5: passing plays down the field. And I do think that

1008
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 5: this Rams secondary is still the weak point on their

1009
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:57,880
Speaker 5: team by far. They just haven't really been tested. So yeah,

1010
00:53:58,000 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 5: I think that the like this can set up is

1011
00:54:00,880 --> 00:54:04,120
Speaker 5: like a easily like a twenty seven to twenty four

1012
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:08,880
Speaker 5: type of game. You're thirty twenty seven wouldn't surprise me,

1013
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 5: uh So, Yeah, I think there's a lots of avenues

1014
00:54:11,960 --> 00:54:16,399
Speaker 5: for offense here, So give me forty nine ers Rams over.

1015
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:22,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think something like the Niners defense is

1016
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:26,360
Speaker 3: definitely not good, and you know, I mean they probably

1017
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,319
Speaker 3: should have gave up more points than they even have.

1018
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 3: I mean, remember earlier in the year, they I don't know,

1019
00:54:30,800 --> 00:54:33,400
Speaker 3: like their metrics. It's hard to kind of factor everything

1020
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:35,359
Speaker 3: in because they just keep losing more and more guys.

1021
00:54:35,360 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 3: But they were playing in these like sixteen thirteen type

1022
00:54:37,600 --> 00:54:40,359
Speaker 3: of games that are probably still you know, factoring into

1023
00:54:40,360 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 3: their their totals. So yeah, I think this is this

1024
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:45,680
Speaker 3: should This is another one that it could get over

1025
00:54:46,520 --> 00:54:50,600
Speaker 3: first half, early third quarter. Just two really good offensive

1026
00:54:50,600 --> 00:54:53,719
Speaker 3: coaches and the Rams well schemed defense. But you're right,

1027
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:56,759
Speaker 3: I mean, this is not a defense where you're like,

1028
00:54:56,960 --> 00:54:59,840
Speaker 3: you're scared of it, especially when you didn't have Kittle

1029
00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:03,760
Speaker 3: in the first matchup, if I remember correctly, and you also,

1030
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:06,759
Speaker 3: I mean, now you get Jennings back into the flow

1031
00:55:06,800 --> 00:55:10,840
Speaker 3: of things, You're you're getting Jennings born like you're getting

1032
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:14,040
Speaker 3: You're getting your top four guys, and that's really all

1033
00:55:14,080 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 3: that matters, because then use check is gonna play a lot,

1034
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:18,480
Speaker 3: so you know, whether it's DeMarcus Robinson, I mean, pearsall

1035
00:55:18,480 --> 00:55:21,920
Speaker 3: would obviously help with the explosives, but just having Kittle,

1036
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 3: McCaffrey and then two you know, respectable wide receivers for

1037
00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 3: the other two spots and and Jennings and uh and

1038
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:31,440
Speaker 3: Born like that. You can do a lot with that

1039
00:55:31,600 --> 00:55:34,360
Speaker 3: and that, and they've been passing a ton overexpected with

1040
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 3: mac Jones, so yeah, this could be this could be

1041
00:55:37,600 --> 00:55:42,239
Speaker 3: a barn burner uh and and I will say rams

1042
00:55:42,840 --> 00:55:45,760
Speaker 3: if they continue to play more heavy person now probably

1043
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:48,000
Speaker 3: makes them better in the red zone, right because you

1044
00:55:48,040 --> 00:55:50,760
Speaker 3: know to two athlos On I R and uh Waddington

1045
00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:53,440
Speaker 3: hasn't been a touchdown guys, So yeah, I think you

1046
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 3: can see a lot of points in this one. Like it,

1047
00:55:55,080 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 3: it's time for our money line underdog parley.

1048
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 1: In good weekends, in two great weekends, It's time for

1049
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 1: the money line parlay.

1050
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:09,560
Speaker 3: All right, stuck, you what are you eating to one

1051
00:56:09,640 --> 00:56:15,480
Speaker 3: of your eight and two outstanding stuff? So tell us

1052
00:56:15,480 --> 00:56:17,000
Speaker 3: where you're at for this week.

1053
00:56:18,480 --> 00:56:22,160
Speaker 5: Let's go with the New York Jets. I mean it's

1054
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:23,080
Speaker 5: Dylan Gabriel.

1055
00:56:26,040 --> 00:56:27,840
Speaker 3: I hate it. I hate it and I agree at

1056
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:30,319
Speaker 3: the same time. Like all week, I've been hoping that

1057
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 3: like the Jets would could stay favored. I could just

1058
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:35,480
Speaker 3: back the grounds against like a Jet team that traded

1059
00:56:35,520 --> 00:56:38,279
Speaker 3: everyone and then lo and behold. Now the Browns are

1060
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:40,120
Speaker 3: somehow like four points better than the Jets and the

1061
00:56:40,120 --> 00:56:43,200
Speaker 3: neutral field or something like that. It's ridiculous. Yeah.

1062
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:45,239
Speaker 6: I mean like, if you.

1063
00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:49,839
Speaker 5: Like Dylan Gabriel, if you look at like success rate,

1064
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:55,000
Speaker 5: he is the worst the NFL by far. It's like

1065
00:56:55,080 --> 00:56:58,920
Speaker 5: thirty four percent success rate. So there's no Sauce Gardner.

1066
00:56:59,640 --> 00:57:02,759
Speaker 5: But who cares against? I mean that it's this. If

1067
00:57:02,760 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 5: there's one game where you can survive without Sauce Gardner,

1068
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:08,320
Speaker 5: it's against the Browns passing attack outdoors in a rain storm.

1069
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:14,160
Speaker 5: H Garrel Wilson practice that I fields did look better

1070
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 5: last game, should have a little bit more confidence.

1071
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:17,280
Speaker 6: I don't know.

1072
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:19,120
Speaker 5: This game is is just that Dylan Gabriel is the

1073
00:57:19,160 --> 00:57:21,280
Speaker 5: road favorite. Give me and the Browns defense is the

1074
00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:25,640
Speaker 5: same on the road. They never are ah, so yeah,

1075
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:27,160
Speaker 5: give me the Jets.

1076
00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:32,360
Speaker 3: It'd be like if like somebody's grandparents and great grandparents,

1077
00:57:32,640 --> 00:57:36,440
Speaker 3: uh played a game of football. It's like, okay, you

1078
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:39,120
Speaker 3: guys still take the grandparents. They're old as fuck. They're

1079
00:57:39,440 --> 00:57:41,680
Speaker 3: like the Jets. I like, it's just two bad teams

1080
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:42,480
Speaker 3: and the Browns.

1081
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:44,040
Speaker 6: They both want to lose to this game. They both

1082
00:57:44,840 --> 00:57:45,280
Speaker 6: they lose.

1083
00:57:45,840 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 3: I mean, but I was just I wish I I mean,

1084
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:49,920
Speaker 3: it's not as much value if you don't if you're

1085
00:57:49,920 --> 00:57:51,840
Speaker 3: not getting the threes either way. But I was, I

1086
00:57:51,880 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 3: was really hoping to be able to bet on the

1087
00:57:54,680 --> 00:57:58,600
Speaker 3: against the Jets, like, uh, you know, just knowing they

1088
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 3: were going to trade like everybody. But then and now

1089
00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:04,920
Speaker 3: this line is equally ridiculous. I actually agree.

1090
00:58:05,520 --> 00:58:09,200
Speaker 5: I mean, it's the thirty six point seven Gabriel.

1091
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:11,040
Speaker 6: Would you say it's you think it?

1092
00:58:11,120 --> 00:58:13,400
Speaker 3: I mean, if we get to three with the narrative

1093
00:58:13,480 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 3: like the won't get you don't think so, I mean.

1094
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 6: Not with it totally.

1095
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:21,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean not with the one minusappening. But yeah, sorry,

1096
00:58:21,120 --> 00:58:21,640
Speaker 3: what were you saying?

1097
00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 4: Uh?

1098
00:58:23,000 --> 00:58:27,280
Speaker 5: Bottom five quarterback success rate? You got to forty three percent,

1099
00:58:27,520 --> 00:58:30,960
Speaker 5: Knicks forty two and a half percent, Russ forty one

1100
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:35,120
Speaker 5: and a half percent, Ward forty point one percent, Gabriel

1101
00:58:35,480 --> 00:58:41,120
Speaker 5: thirty six point seven percent, Like significantly worse than the

1102
00:58:41,120 --> 00:58:42,439
Speaker 5: rest of that bottom five group.

1103
00:58:43,560 --> 00:58:47,840
Speaker 3: What was completion right over expected? Of thirty five qualifiers.

1104
00:58:47,080 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 6: He's been.

1105
00:58:51,560 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 3: The worst resented. The expectation when you're freaking dinking and

1106
00:58:57,760 --> 00:58:59,200
Speaker 3: dug it old like ridiculous.

1107
00:58:59,320 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 5: And by the way, the Jets defense not as bad

1108
00:59:02,560 --> 00:59:04,919
Speaker 5: as their numbers now they traded away Williams.

1109
00:59:04,920 --> 00:59:06,720
Speaker 6: Probably they're gonna get worse.

1110
00:59:07,120 --> 00:59:09,560
Speaker 5: But the reason that they've been worse than their numbers,

1111
00:59:09,560 --> 00:59:11,880
Speaker 5: like their success rates are going bad. They give up exposes,

1112
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:15,720
Speaker 5: they don't tackle, but no turnovers. They've got no turnovers.

1113
00:59:16,080 --> 00:59:19,160
Speaker 5: So if I had a bet without Sauce Garner, that's

1114
00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:20,920
Speaker 5: still in Gabriel. This is probably when they get their

1115
00:59:20,960 --> 00:59:22,840
Speaker 5: first interception. And that's basically what this game is gonna

1116
00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:24,720
Speaker 5: come down to some stupid turnovers.

1117
00:59:25,520 --> 00:59:26,560
Speaker 3: Is j Justins even healthy.

1118
00:59:27,560 --> 00:59:29,520
Speaker 5: I think he's gonna fly, but he's got a shoulder injury.

1119
00:59:29,600 --> 00:59:31,480
Speaker 5: So and that's their entire offense.

1120
00:59:31,240 --> 00:59:33,280
Speaker 3: Big drop off. Yeah with the other I mean, Ford

1121
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:37,600
Speaker 3: is a jag and Sampson really hasn't lived up to

1122
00:59:37,640 --> 00:59:40,360
Speaker 3: expectation in the run game. He's had that one game

1123
00:59:40,600 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 3: where he was catching a lot of passes, but they

1124
00:59:42,440 --> 00:59:45,000
Speaker 3: they've hesitated to use him, which tells me that like

1125
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:49,240
Speaker 3: the difference between those guys in practice is probably even

1126
00:59:49,280 --> 00:59:51,120
Speaker 3: more drastic than we see on Sundays.

1127
00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:52,520
Speaker 6: So yeah, yeah, Justins not listening.

1128
00:59:52,520 --> 00:59:56,320
Speaker 5: He's gonna play Bond and Schweschinger probably don't play for

1129
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:56,919
Speaker 5: what it's worth.

1130
00:59:57,240 --> 01:00:00,960
Speaker 3: My guy Gage Larvadan those e might be back for

1131
01:00:01,000 --> 01:00:03,760
Speaker 3: the brother I don't know, yeah, but I kind of

1132
01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:06,480
Speaker 3: wanted to see more Larvadan. He was he was balling

1133
01:00:06,480 --> 01:00:10,360
Speaker 3: in the preseason, all right. So we got Jets plus

1134
01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:14,640
Speaker 3: one fourteen. I'm gonna roll with the Pittsburgh I like

1135
01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:15,960
Speaker 3: to just too, but I'm gona roll with the Pittsburgh

1136
01:00:15,960 --> 01:00:20,440
Speaker 3: Steelers here at plus one point. There's a lot of

1137
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:23,360
Speaker 3: options this week. I think they're a lot of live dogs.

1138
01:00:23,720 --> 01:00:27,320
Speaker 3: But the Steelers, this is the kind of kind of

1139
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:29,680
Speaker 3: the spot that I want them again. I know, they

1140
01:00:30,160 --> 01:00:33,360
Speaker 3: came off two straight Tomlin spots at home. They won

1141
01:00:33,400 --> 01:00:37,480
Speaker 3: one of them, well lost one of them, but the

1142
01:00:37,600 --> 01:00:41,840
Speaker 3: Chargers like this. This offense is just so touch and

1143
01:00:41,920 --> 01:00:45,920
Speaker 3: go the Steelers, I mean, being able to shut down

1144
01:00:45,960 --> 01:00:51,560
Speaker 3: the Coats like that is you know, it's it provides

1145
01:00:51,600 --> 01:00:53,280
Speaker 3: some hope because we knew the talent was there.

1146
01:00:53,320 --> 01:00:56,200
Speaker 6: They did some of the things I talked about last week.

1147
01:00:56,240 --> 01:00:56,760
Speaker 3: Yep, yep.

1148
01:00:56,840 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 5: They went more too high Ramsey to say key, and

1149
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:04,600
Speaker 5: a lot of those things helped. I think the biggest

1150
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:07,640
Speaker 5: your case here is that if you look on off

1151
01:01:07,640 --> 01:01:11,600
Speaker 5: splits with Joe, all the charters are basically a top

1152
01:01:11,640 --> 01:01:14,240
Speaker 5: five offense and these sample size is it's probably not

1153
01:01:14,240 --> 01:01:16,640
Speaker 5: this drastic, but the numbers say this their top five

1154
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:18,840
Speaker 5: offense with him and a bottom five offense without them.

1155
01:01:19,360 --> 01:01:21,480
Speaker 5: It's the drop off and the trickle down effect on

1156
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:25,000
Speaker 5: that offensive line is massive. And the Steelers obviously have

1157
01:01:25,040 --> 01:01:27,920
Speaker 5: edge rushers who can take advantage and like so that

1158
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:33,440
Speaker 5: you could have just like last week, what Hi Smith

1159
01:01:33,960 --> 01:01:36,479
Speaker 5: for some turnovers, you know, some strips that could change

1160
01:01:36,520 --> 01:01:40,720
Speaker 5: this game. But because the old injury is just devastating Blower.

1161
01:01:40,880 --> 01:01:44,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, and you've got Rogers indoors, You've got Austin, so

1162
01:01:44,960 --> 01:01:47,400
Speaker 3: you got like a decent you got decent receiving corps.

1163
01:01:47,440 --> 01:01:49,920
Speaker 3: They you know, they're they're using war and more like

1164
01:01:49,960 --> 01:01:51,720
Speaker 3: I just I think the Steers are just kind of

1165
01:01:51,760 --> 01:01:54,560
Speaker 3: rounding into shape. Uh, And you do have a lot

1166
01:01:54,600 --> 01:01:56,720
Speaker 3: of talent. Like remember, this is a team that we

1167
01:01:56,840 --> 01:01:58,600
Speaker 3: might have laughed at them and thought they were like, oh,

1168
01:01:58,720 --> 01:02:01,600
Speaker 3: there's it's another eight, eight, nine and nine and eight

1169
01:02:01,640 --> 01:02:04,120
Speaker 3: ton of team, But they were they were thinking Super

1170
01:02:04,120 --> 01:02:05,760
Speaker 3: Bowl with busts, you know, That's why they kind of

1171
01:02:06,000 --> 01:02:08,360
Speaker 3: went all in. And they're aggressed in the trade market.

1172
01:02:08,480 --> 01:02:11,880
Speaker 3: So the town is there and this Charger team, you know,

1173
01:02:11,920 --> 01:02:16,240
Speaker 3: they were running the ball better with Theodal than Hampton

1174
01:02:17,000 --> 01:02:18,680
Speaker 3: for you know, a couple of games. But then lo

1175
01:02:18,800 --> 01:02:20,840
Speaker 3: and behold they go against the Titans, who can't stop

1176
01:02:20,880 --> 01:02:26,520
Speaker 3: anyone on the ground and it stopped and so her

1177
01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:28,960
Speaker 3: that it just kind of increases the variance. And I

1178
01:02:28,960 --> 01:02:31,160
Speaker 3: think that's what you want when you know the Chargers.

1179
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:34,120
Speaker 3: Chargers get no a lot of respect here. Uh I

1180
01:02:34,160 --> 01:02:36,400
Speaker 3: think this, you know, not really much home field advantage.

1181
01:02:36,440 --> 01:02:40,880
Speaker 3: I think yeah, and benefits Rogers to be indoors at

1182
01:02:40,920 --> 01:02:45,280
Speaker 3: this point in his career. And yeah, the offensive and

1183
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:47,600
Speaker 3: that's not even the only offense. Like I saw Beckton

1184
01:02:47,680 --> 01:02:49,840
Speaker 3: on the injury report, like there's just this Charger O

1185
01:02:50,040 --> 01:02:54,520
Speaker 3: line is just shambles, and and you trade for god

1186
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:57,720
Speaker 3: the Saints like yeah, it's uh they could get ugly here.

1187
01:02:57,760 --> 01:03:00,360
Speaker 3: So the Chargers this could you know, what was it

1188
01:03:00,400 --> 01:03:03,040
Speaker 3: a couple it was like week four, I think they

1189
01:03:03,480 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 3: they were favorites against the Coats and they ended up

1190
01:03:05,560 --> 01:03:08,520
Speaker 3: getting blown out by two three scores, Like I could

1191
01:03:08,760 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 3: I could see that happening. I mean the Steelers also

1192
01:03:10,760 --> 01:03:14,960
Speaker 3: beat the coach by uh what was it multiple scores?

1193
01:03:15,000 --> 01:03:18,520
Speaker 3: Yeah right, yeah, yeah, a couple late, Oh yeah, yeah,

1194
01:03:18,520 --> 01:03:20,919
Speaker 3: oh no, it was one score, but sorry, it felt

1195
01:03:20,920 --> 01:03:23,600
Speaker 3: like multiple scores most of that game. It was. But

1196
01:03:23,840 --> 01:03:27,840
Speaker 3: you know, Steelers still kind of have some unrealized upside

1197
01:03:28,920 --> 01:03:31,320
Speaker 3: on both sides of the ball. I mean last week,

1198
01:03:31,400 --> 01:03:33,080
Speaker 3: you know, they only gained two hundred and twenty five

1199
01:03:33,200 --> 01:03:37,760
Speaker 3: yards and they were just dominating. But I think there

1200
01:03:37,760 --> 01:03:40,160
Speaker 3: hasn't really been a game where their offensive defense has

1201
01:03:40,200 --> 01:03:43,760
Speaker 3: both been in sync. I think the talent is there,

1202
01:03:43,800 --> 01:03:47,320
Speaker 3: So yeah, give me the Steelers at plus one forty.

1203
01:03:47,560 --> 01:03:51,360
Speaker 3: Partway Steelers and Jets plus one fourteen and plus one

1204
01:03:51,440 --> 01:03:58,880
Speaker 3: forty you get plus four thirteen. Now it's time for

1205
01:03:59,160 --> 01:04:05,000
Speaker 3: any time Touchdown Parlay presented by DraftKings Stuck. You've been

1206
01:04:05,040 --> 01:04:07,880
Speaker 3: hot on these two. Where are you going for Week ten?

1207
01:04:08,640 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 5: Let's go to Isaiah Likely. I think he's got a

1208
01:04:10,880 --> 01:04:13,000
Speaker 5: good matchup here. And I think you're getting some doubt

1209
01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:15,720
Speaker 5: here because Andrews scored two touchdowns. But from everything I'm hearing,

1210
01:04:16,080 --> 01:04:17,560
Speaker 5: Likely is going to be more the more featured died

1211
01:04:17,640 --> 01:04:19,240
Speaker 5: end in the passing attack moving forward.

1212
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:21,880
Speaker 6: Vikings blitz Happy.

1213
01:04:21,640 --> 01:04:23,760
Speaker 5: Think there's going to be some opportunities for Lamar to

1214
01:04:23,800 --> 01:04:26,800
Speaker 5: get the ball out to him if they're in the

1215
01:04:26,800 --> 01:04:28,920
Speaker 5: red zone, and I think Likely it's gonna have a

1216
01:04:28,920 --> 01:04:29,840
Speaker 5: big second half the year.

1217
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:34,800
Speaker 3: Okay, that's actually a good little tidbit because I was

1218
01:04:36,160 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 3: so right. Now I have for a route participation, I

1219
01:04:40,800 --> 01:04:45,160
Speaker 3: have Andrew's sixty seven point five percent, Likely, sixty seven

1220
01:04:45,200 --> 01:04:48,960
Speaker 3: point five percent, Polar fifteen percent. Does that sound about right?

1221
01:04:50,320 --> 01:04:52,120
Speaker 5: I think Andrews is probably gonna go down a little

1222
01:04:52,120 --> 01:04:54,520
Speaker 5: bit and Likely's going to go up a little. Andrews

1223
01:04:54,520 --> 01:04:59,560
Speaker 5: also blocks better pass blocking, which is crazy. Yeah, it's

1224
01:04:59,600 --> 01:05:04,040
Speaker 5: not like specialty. So yeah, I would probably lower Andrews

1225
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:06,640
Speaker 5: and raise Likely a bit from what I'm.

1226
01:05:06,560 --> 01:05:10,880
Speaker 3: Okay, because yeah, it was it was eighty five percent

1227
01:05:11,080 --> 01:05:13,160
Speaker 3: of the game before the bye for Likely, and then

1228
01:05:13,160 --> 01:05:16,120
Speaker 3: it went to sixty percent and forty eight. But that

1229
01:05:16,240 --> 01:05:21,120
Speaker 3: was a blowout. But yeah, his his past snaps eighty

1230
01:05:21,160 --> 01:05:23,240
Speaker 3: eight seventy to fifty five over the last three that's

1231
01:05:23,280 --> 01:05:25,320
Speaker 3: seventy one percent, and he's usually not going to block

1232
01:05:25,680 --> 01:05:28,560
Speaker 3: at all, So you could get above seventy and Andrews

1233
01:05:28,560 --> 01:05:31,120
Speaker 3: will be yeah, like seventy sixty I could see or

1234
01:05:31,160 --> 01:05:33,720
Speaker 3: something like that. But that would make a big difference

1235
01:05:33,720 --> 01:05:36,840
Speaker 3: in Likely's projection more so than Andrews. So yeah, that's

1236
01:05:36,880 --> 01:05:40,160
Speaker 3: a good call. I am going to go with it.

1237
01:05:40,240 --> 01:05:42,680
Speaker 3: Might be a little bit of a contrarian play, but

1238
01:05:44,320 --> 01:05:47,400
Speaker 3: I think it's it's certainly doable regardless of the situation.

1239
01:05:48,000 --> 01:05:52,440
Speaker 3: Jamison Williams plus one seventy five. Now, a couple of

1240
01:05:52,480 --> 01:05:58,160
Speaker 3: things work in Jamo's favor here, even though Detroit might

1241
01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:01,520
Speaker 3: not have any offensive line. The first thing is the

1242
01:06:01,560 --> 01:06:04,200
Speaker 3: coordinator came out and said I have failed him, Like

1243
01:06:04,280 --> 01:06:07,360
Speaker 3: he's the guy that I I'm sick about, Like I

1244
01:06:07,400 --> 01:06:09,280
Speaker 3: need to get him into the end zone. I need

1245
01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:12,280
Speaker 3: to get him more. Uh, you know targets that that

1246
01:06:12,440 --> 01:06:17,640
Speaker 3: usually means you're gonna have a squeaky wheel situation. Now, yes,

1247
01:06:17,800 --> 01:06:21,320
Speaker 3: Detroit decimated on the offensive line, but they don't even

1248
01:06:21,320 --> 01:06:26,440
Speaker 3: is Washington. Washington is a terrible defense store. Yeah, and

1249
01:06:27,360 --> 01:06:31,520
Speaker 3: Washington just put marsh on the laddim More, who they

1250
01:06:31,560 --> 01:06:33,720
Speaker 3: thought was their you know, top corner room. I don't know.

1251
01:06:33,760 --> 01:06:36,920
Speaker 3: He was definitely not anything close to it. But uh,

1252
01:06:37,040 --> 01:06:41,080
Speaker 3: you know, does that mean now they dedicate more resources

1253
01:06:41,080 --> 01:06:45,960
Speaker 3: to you know, slowing down a manrah. They still play

1254
01:06:46,000 --> 01:06:50,360
Speaker 3: a lot of single high that helps Jamo, and they

1255
01:06:50,400 --> 01:06:55,600
Speaker 3: played man coverage, so Jame's gonna have opportunities and I

1256
01:06:55,600 --> 01:06:57,560
Speaker 3: think the Commanders are the right side of the bet.

1257
01:06:58,000 --> 01:07:01,919
Speaker 3: That means the Lions probably gonna be more trailing game

1258
01:07:01,960 --> 01:07:05,400
Speaker 3: script or neutral game script then they've been. You know,

1259
01:07:05,440 --> 01:07:07,640
Speaker 3: they've still been very good most of the year. So

1260
01:07:08,120 --> 01:07:11,400
Speaker 3: all these things just helped Jamo, who you know, we

1261
01:07:11,440 --> 01:07:13,240
Speaker 3: could be kind of at the bottom of his market

1262
01:07:13,320 --> 01:07:18,280
Speaker 3: with you know, him just having multiple duds, like just

1263
01:07:18,560 --> 01:07:21,040
Speaker 3: ugly ugly like you know, no catches, one catch type

1264
01:07:21,080 --> 01:07:24,680
Speaker 3: of games. But I will say I bet this already.

1265
01:07:27,040 --> 01:07:30,080
Speaker 3: I would wait, there's a chance his odds could go

1266
01:07:30,160 --> 01:07:33,560
Speaker 3: even higher, because what's gonna happen is this spread could

1267
01:07:33,600 --> 01:07:35,960
Speaker 3: come down, so that would shift more of the even

1268
01:07:35,960 --> 01:07:38,320
Speaker 3: if the total stays the same, that would shift more

1269
01:07:38,320 --> 01:07:42,880
Speaker 3: of the scoring to Washington side and make the odds

1270
01:07:42,920 --> 01:07:45,160
Speaker 3: longer for some of the Detroit players. So there's a

1271
01:07:45,240 --> 01:07:47,600
Speaker 3: chance we could get back into the plus two hundred range.

1272
01:07:47,640 --> 01:07:49,280
Speaker 3: But I think this is kind of you got to

1273
01:07:49,320 --> 01:07:52,160
Speaker 3: kind of pick your spots with Jamo, And this just

1274
01:07:52,200 --> 01:07:57,920
Speaker 3: streams game O touchdown, passing touchdown even though you know,

1275
01:07:58,000 --> 01:08:00,280
Speaker 3: and because everyone's kind of down on golf outdoors tran

1276
01:08:00,320 --> 01:08:05,240
Speaker 3: it's still nineteen passing touchdowns allowed just seven rushing touchdowns.

1277
01:08:05,240 --> 01:08:07,720
Speaker 3: That's one of the highest passing to rushing ratios in

1278
01:08:07,720 --> 01:08:10,720
Speaker 3: the week. So yeah, give me Jamo at plus one

1279
01:08:10,720 --> 01:08:16,519
Speaker 3: seventy five on DraftKings Likely at plus two eighty at

1280
01:08:16,800 --> 01:08:22,200
Speaker 3: the parway. Together Likely and Jmo plus ninety five, it's

1281
01:08:22,240 --> 01:08:25,160
Speaker 3: about nine and a half to one. That was our

1282
01:08:25,240 --> 01:08:32,720
Speaker 3: anytime touchdown parlay resented by DraftKings. All right, stuck any

1283
01:08:32,760 --> 01:08:33,840
Speaker 3: games we did it here?

1284
01:08:33,880 --> 01:08:39,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, quick, quickly. Panthers Saints. I mean Panthers zero and

1285
01:08:39,880 --> 01:08:42,680
Speaker 5: ten against the spread, its favorite last ten games. Can

1286
01:08:42,720 --> 01:08:44,760
Speaker 5: I lay five and a half? I mean, what are

1287
01:08:44,760 --> 01:08:50,400
Speaker 5: the Saints can do? Yeah, it's Panthers are nothing there,

1288
01:08:51,880 --> 01:08:53,360
Speaker 5: but who I mean that game they're at home.

1289
01:08:53,360 --> 01:08:55,439
Speaker 3: Though they're at home, they've been a kind of jeck

1290
01:08:55,439 --> 01:08:57,479
Speaker 3: going to hive, So I thought I was that was

1291
01:08:57,520 --> 01:09:02,040
Speaker 3: probably the Panthers most impressed to win, uh, you know,

1292
01:09:02,160 --> 01:09:05,400
Speaker 3: last week in a while, just because they're usually terrible

1293
01:09:05,400 --> 01:09:09,200
Speaker 3: on the road, and they like they just said, hey,

1294
01:09:09,439 --> 01:09:12,519
Speaker 3: fuck it, we gave Hubbard a big contract. Dabto's been

1295
01:09:14,200 --> 01:09:17,320
Speaker 3: much better player, turned the turned the game over to him,

1296
01:09:17,400 --> 01:09:19,040
Speaker 3: and he just took him to the promised Land, and

1297
01:09:19,080 --> 01:09:21,600
Speaker 3: their defense hung in there. That you know, we like

1298
01:09:21,680 --> 01:09:25,240
Speaker 3: the coordinator and the talent is. They're not great, but

1299
01:09:25,280 --> 01:09:27,439
Speaker 3: it's trending up. I think on both sides of the ball.

1300
01:09:27,600 --> 01:09:28,719
Speaker 3: Young is playing better too.

1301
01:09:28,840 --> 01:09:30,120
Speaker 6: And the Saints are just a mess.

1302
01:09:30,320 --> 01:09:35,240
Speaker 5: Uh and Bill's Dolphins. It's hard to see the Bill's

1303
01:09:35,280 --> 01:09:36,599
Speaker 5: not plowing out the Dolphins. But it's not a great

1304
01:09:36,640 --> 01:09:38,040
Speaker 5: spot you're under.

1305
01:09:38,880 --> 01:09:41,680
Speaker 3: Could be an under game if both teams want to run.

1306
01:09:41,840 --> 01:09:44,600
Speaker 3: But if it's like a little just Miami kind of sloggish.

1307
01:09:44,680 --> 01:09:46,360
Speaker 3: We've seen the Bill struggle on those spots.

1308
01:09:46,560 --> 01:09:49,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean the Dolphins hung in there the first

1309
01:09:49,400 --> 01:09:52,720
Speaker 5: time around. They've but this this who knows where this

1310
01:09:52,760 --> 01:09:55,839
Speaker 5: team is at mentally. But the Bill's defense is potentially

1311
01:09:55,880 --> 01:10:00,559
Speaker 5: trending up because how Bishop has been playing, and Hairston

1312
01:10:01,120 --> 01:10:03,880
Speaker 5: could be what they really need to get over the

1313
01:10:03,920 --> 01:10:06,200
Speaker 5: hop with their secondary play. I thought he played outstanding.

1314
01:10:06,280 --> 01:10:08,559
Speaker 5: The rookie out of Kentucky last week, the last one

1315
01:10:08,840 --> 01:10:11,280
Speaker 5: really interesting one. So I've played the Falcons. I played

1316
01:10:11,280 --> 01:10:13,680
Speaker 5: some six six and a half early in the week,

1317
01:10:13,720 --> 01:10:14,800
Speaker 5: and I really shouldn't have.

1318
01:10:16,560 --> 01:10:16,600
Speaker 4: It.

1319
01:10:16,680 --> 01:10:19,519
Speaker 5: Should never play early in the week during trade deadline.

1320
01:10:19,800 --> 01:10:21,240
Speaker 5: But I didn't think either one of these teams is

1321
01:10:21,240 --> 01:10:23,680
Speaker 5: going to make a huge splash. I was wrong, So

1322
01:10:23,840 --> 01:10:26,840
Speaker 5: it's a really tricky one. Everything went against me here.

1323
01:10:27,000 --> 01:10:28,880
Speaker 5: I don't love it as much now. I just got

1324
01:10:28,880 --> 01:10:31,639
Speaker 5: to hope that it's a Daniel Jones pumpkin game. Falcons

1325
01:10:31,680 --> 01:10:35,720
Speaker 5: should be healthier on defense, like I think Harrison's gonna

1326
01:10:35,760 --> 01:10:38,439
Speaker 5: be back, Bowman's gonna be back. Everyone else should be

1327
01:10:38,479 --> 01:10:41,040
Speaker 5: playing this week. And when their defense silly, they can

1328
01:10:41,160 --> 01:10:45,040
Speaker 5: get pressured. The problem there's two major problems here the

1329
01:10:45,120 --> 01:10:47,639
Speaker 5: O line, both because I thought, like I didn't think

1330
01:10:47,640 --> 01:10:49,719
Speaker 5: Bergeron and Lichtman would both be out, and it looks

1331
01:10:49,720 --> 01:10:51,000
Speaker 5: like they might both be out.

1332
01:10:51,520 --> 01:10:54,080
Speaker 6: Just devastating game.

1333
01:10:54,200 --> 01:10:56,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's hard. It's hard to like those big guys

1334
01:10:56,880 --> 01:10:58,679
Speaker 3: on that with those long trips if you're hurt.

1335
01:10:59,320 --> 01:11:02,799
Speaker 5: Yeah, So their offensive line is they're already down McGarry

1336
01:11:02,800 --> 01:11:06,840
Speaker 5: at the right tackle spot. So their offensive lines and shambles.

1337
01:11:07,360 --> 01:11:09,920
Speaker 5: That's not great. You also have Sauce go on or

1338
01:11:09,920 --> 01:11:12,559
Speaker 5: how much is he gonna play? I think he's gonna start,

1339
01:11:12,600 --> 01:11:14,720
Speaker 5: but it's he like how up to speed is he is?

1340
01:11:14,720 --> 01:11:19,000
Speaker 5: He gonna just get some packages because having him for

1341
01:11:19,080 --> 01:11:20,280
Speaker 5: London is obviously huge.

1342
01:11:20,680 --> 01:11:21,599
Speaker 3: Didn't get a protocol.

1343
01:11:24,160 --> 01:11:25,680
Speaker 5: He practiced it, so he should be good, but I

1344
01:11:25,720 --> 01:11:27,680
Speaker 5: don't know how many snaps is gonna get. And then

1345
01:11:27,720 --> 01:11:31,719
Speaker 5: the other thing the Falcons be like their biggest weakness

1346
01:11:31,720 --> 01:11:33,679
Speaker 5: on defense, like they can get pressure. Now their past

1347
01:11:33,680 --> 01:11:36,040
Speaker 5: these really good. They don't allow exposed to passing plays,

1348
01:11:36,479 --> 01:11:40,559
Speaker 5: but they can be run on. Can't run the ball right.

1349
01:11:40,640 --> 01:11:42,120
Speaker 5: That was one of the reasons I like the Falcons.

1350
01:11:42,200 --> 01:11:44,680
Speaker 5: Last week Stike and talked about how they didn't give

1351
01:11:44,680 --> 01:11:48,559
Speaker 5: the ball to Taylor enough last week. Oh, I feel

1352
01:11:48,600 --> 01:11:50,519
Speaker 5: that like Taylor is just gonna run all over them.

1353
01:11:51,320 --> 01:11:53,800
Speaker 5: And then this is when you you really missed Diablo.

1354
01:11:55,360 --> 01:11:58,080
Speaker 5: So I don't love it as much. I mean, I

1355
01:11:58,160 --> 01:12:01,519
Speaker 5: played it. I have a bet on it. I had, Uh, Robbie,

1356
01:12:01,520 --> 01:12:03,240
Speaker 5: if you try to get out of it, if Falcons

1357
01:12:03,280 --> 01:12:05,880
Speaker 5: start hot, my numbers still say the Falcons are a player.

1358
01:12:05,960 --> 01:12:10,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you got some things potentially also working in

1359
01:12:10,800 --> 01:12:13,040
Speaker 3: your favorite I don't now it's Wednesday, so keep that

1360
01:12:13,080 --> 01:12:15,960
Speaker 3: in mind. But Michael Pittman d MP with a lower

1361
01:12:16,040 --> 01:12:21,559
Speaker 3: body at it. Uh, And then you know Ebukam mc

1362
01:12:21,720 --> 01:12:23,479
Speaker 3: l d n P Buckner. So I don't know if

1363
01:12:23,479 --> 01:12:25,640
Speaker 3: they're just resting like their best guys. I gotta go

1364
01:12:25,680 --> 01:12:27,840
Speaker 3: back and look at but Kenny Moore, like it seems

1365
01:12:27,880 --> 01:12:30,000
Speaker 3: like they're just giving like all their best players the

1366
01:12:30,040 --> 01:12:34,080
Speaker 3: Wednesday off. But uh, you know, pavement would be a

1367
01:12:34,080 --> 01:12:36,080
Speaker 3: big loss and make them a little more one dimensional

1368
01:12:36,120 --> 01:12:38,719
Speaker 3: and be easier to find. In the past game, he's

1369
01:12:39,000 --> 01:12:41,559
Speaker 3: he's been kind of banged up on and off, so

1370
01:12:41,600 --> 01:12:44,679
Speaker 3: that that's something to watch, but yeah, probably is nothing.

1371
01:12:45,120 --> 01:12:47,519
Speaker 3: And then you know sauce they're with, so it's probably

1372
01:12:47,520 --> 01:12:50,719
Speaker 3: just injury report shenanigans. They could go into the game

1373
01:12:50,800 --> 01:12:54,120
Speaker 3: like entirely healthy as well, so that that that would

1374
01:12:54,240 --> 01:12:54,559
Speaker 3: be the idea.

1375
01:12:54,600 --> 01:12:58,240
Speaker 6: But yes, you haven't played this yet. I wouldn't play

1376
01:12:58,240 --> 01:12:58,559
Speaker 6: it now.

1377
01:12:59,120 --> 01:13:06,360
Speaker 3: He probably gets like seven regardless. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, this.

1378
01:13:06,360 --> 01:13:09,080
Speaker 5: Was trending to like five, five and a half, and

1379
01:13:09,120 --> 01:13:12,240
Speaker 5: then the Gardener news and then the Falcons offensive line news.

1380
01:13:14,240 --> 01:13:17,040
Speaker 5: Everything went against the Falcons this week, and then matchup wise,

1381
01:13:17,080 --> 01:13:19,719
Speaker 5: it's not as good as last week. Because the Colts

1382
01:13:19,720 --> 01:13:22,080
Speaker 5: can run the ball. They've been talking about it, but

1383
01:13:22,320 --> 01:13:24,280
Speaker 5: this is like the conditions here could slow up the

1384
01:13:24,280 --> 01:13:29,240
Speaker 5: Colts offense a bit grass field, right and like they've

1385
01:13:29,240 --> 01:13:31,960
Speaker 5: been playing then last week their offense into anything, but

1386
01:13:32,040 --> 01:13:35,280
Speaker 5: Daniel Jones could also just pumpkin this game away, so

1387
01:13:35,400 --> 01:13:36,120
Speaker 5: that could happen.

1388
01:13:36,960 --> 01:13:40,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's just the thing about the grass field, like,

1389
01:13:40,520 --> 01:13:43,679
Speaker 3: how do you think that impacts the Falcons offense because

1390
01:13:43,840 --> 01:13:47,160
Speaker 3: it's tough because they've been better at home, especially with Panics,

1391
01:13:47,200 --> 01:13:49,680
Speaker 3: you know, indoors and the track. But this is not

1392
01:13:49,720 --> 01:13:51,559
Speaker 3: like a true road game. But it is a road game.

1393
01:13:51,680 --> 01:13:54,080
Speaker 3: It's just not in the home field of the opponent.

1394
01:13:54,160 --> 01:13:56,640
Speaker 3: Like any any thugs on the Falcons offense in the.

1395
01:13:56,640 --> 01:13:59,800
Speaker 5: Spot, I had no idea. I had no idea. What

1396
01:13:59,800 --> 01:14:02,320
Speaker 5: the because of the offensive line.

1397
01:14:02,040 --> 01:14:02,599
Speaker 3: I don't know.

1398
01:14:03,360 --> 01:14:06,280
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't know how they Now the Colts don't

1399
01:14:06,280 --> 01:14:09,320
Speaker 5: get elite pressure, but are they going to be able

1400
01:14:09,320 --> 01:14:09,639
Speaker 5: to hear?

1401
01:14:09,800 --> 01:14:11,479
Speaker 6: I don't know what their approach is going to be.

1402
01:14:11,680 --> 01:14:14,080
Speaker 3: It can blitz more with the Gardner back there too,

1403
01:14:14,120 --> 01:14:17,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's I see what you mean. It's it's

1404
01:14:17,120 --> 01:14:19,360
Speaker 3: it is. It's like on a slippery slope that could

1405
01:14:19,360 --> 01:14:21,760
Speaker 3: mean the line just goes up and it's still a play.

1406
01:14:21,800 --> 01:14:23,720
Speaker 6: So seven is a play regardless.

1407
01:14:23,720 --> 01:14:26,519
Speaker 5: But I wouldn't have played what I played obviously now

1408
01:14:26,600 --> 01:14:29,679
Speaker 5: because Gardner could. But there's also a Gardener on certainly

1409
01:14:29,720 --> 01:14:30,960
Speaker 5: does he played the whole game? Is there like a

1410
01:14:31,000 --> 01:14:34,400
Speaker 5: blown does he like blow some assignments because he's not

1411
01:14:34,479 --> 01:14:38,200
Speaker 5: like in tune with the calls And I don't know.

1412
01:14:38,200 --> 01:14:40,920
Speaker 5: I mean, anyone who says Gardner is not elite is crazy.

1413
01:14:41,600 --> 01:14:43,400
Speaker 5: He guards the number one every week and is like

1414
01:14:43,439 --> 01:14:48,519
Speaker 5: allowing the the He forces the highest type throw rate

1415
01:14:48,680 --> 01:14:52,960
Speaker 5: in the league. It's Timmins certain or I think the

1416
01:14:53,000 --> 01:14:56,000
Speaker 5: two best. So uh, it's obviously a huge upgrade for

1417
01:14:56,040 --> 01:14:57,639
Speaker 5: that because one of the reason also play the Falcons

1418
01:14:57,720 --> 01:15:01,479
Speaker 5: is everyone's back on the Falcons receiving corps and that

1419
01:15:01,680 --> 01:15:04,280
Speaker 5: there's no ward who's been so good and the Colts

1420
01:15:04,280 --> 01:15:06,559
Speaker 5: have been deficient on the back end because of that

1421
01:15:06,600 --> 01:15:07,240
Speaker 5: on the outside.

1422
01:15:07,240 --> 01:15:08,240
Speaker 6: But now you have Garner.

1423
01:15:08,720 --> 01:15:11,120
Speaker 5: It's a big difference, huge difference.

1424
01:15:11,120 --> 01:15:14,240
Speaker 3: I mean, Drake London, it was the entire offense. Like

1425
01:15:14,520 --> 01:15:15,600
Speaker 3: last game, he.

1426
01:15:15,600 --> 01:15:16,280
Speaker 6: Could still go off.

1427
01:15:16,280 --> 01:15:19,400
Speaker 5: I mean he went off against Gonzales, but this is

1428
01:15:19,439 --> 01:15:22,360
Speaker 5: a much tougher task. And then the Falcons aren't like

1429
01:15:22,360 --> 01:15:25,760
Speaker 5: a tight end heavy team and that's how you be Yeah,

1430
01:15:25,800 --> 01:15:27,240
Speaker 5: that's I think that's what they have to do here,

1431
01:15:27,360 --> 01:15:29,839
Speaker 5: Like you got to use like Werner more.

1432
01:15:32,240 --> 01:15:35,120
Speaker 3: Because I don't think Michael Pennix is at advanced to

1433
01:15:35,120 --> 01:15:38,880
Speaker 3: get to the Warner portion of the progression. Does he

1434
01:15:38,920 --> 01:15:40,040
Speaker 3: have a target this year?

1435
01:15:40,360 --> 01:15:43,040
Speaker 5: I don't know, but like because the Colts cannot I

1436
01:15:43,080 --> 01:15:45,120
Speaker 5: said this last week, the Colts can't defend tight ends.

1437
01:15:45,120 --> 01:15:47,080
Speaker 5: What did the Steelers do all day? They just threw

1438
01:15:47,160 --> 01:15:49,640
Speaker 5: to all their tight ends? What did all the like

1439
01:15:49,680 --> 01:15:50,400
Speaker 5: eighteen targets?

1440
01:15:51,120 --> 01:15:54,559
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like them. And then the Rams last week

1441
01:15:54,640 --> 01:15:56,760
Speaker 3: was like it was just it's been. It's been just

1442
01:15:57,640 --> 01:16:01,040
Speaker 3: like some of the craziest ship end wise all century.

1443
01:16:01,080 --> 01:16:03,240
Speaker 3: With the amount of tight ends. I'm actually now I'm

1444
01:16:03,280 --> 01:16:11,800
Speaker 3: interested in let's see what uh warners touchdown anytime? Is

1445
01:16:13,080 --> 01:16:15,639
Speaker 3: it's tender on the books and that's that's that's kind

1446
01:16:15,640 --> 01:16:18,600
Speaker 3: of sharp. Yeah, okay, you don't want that, but no,

1447
01:16:18,760 --> 01:16:21,400
Speaker 3: you're right. The facts are four tight ends after every week.

1448
01:16:21,640 --> 01:16:25,640
Speaker 6: Every week they have your guy call Quittriano or whatever.

1449
01:16:25,439 --> 01:16:28,000
Speaker 3: He can Quittriano, who I believe caught a touchdown in

1450
01:16:28,000 --> 01:16:30,040
Speaker 3: his first NFL reception. I don't know if he's made

1451
01:16:30,040 --> 01:16:33,240
Speaker 3: a catch since. And uh and Felipe Franks, the former

1452
01:16:33,320 --> 01:16:34,919
Speaker 3: quarterback quarterbacks quarterback.

1453
01:16:35,000 --> 01:16:38,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, it's very good tight ends. This isn't like the Steelers.

1454
01:16:38,280 --> 01:16:41,839
Speaker 3: Your preseason your favorite preseason quarterbacks favorite preseason quarterback.

1455
01:16:42,200 --> 01:16:43,880
Speaker 5: But that's what they should do. They should go more

1456
01:16:43,880 --> 01:16:44,720
Speaker 5: tight ends every year.

1457
01:16:45,960 --> 01:16:49,439
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, it's not like the receivers are already

1458
01:16:49,680 --> 01:16:54,360
Speaker 3: invisible like David Sills, Cardio King, Mooney, Cardio King. Yeah,

1459
01:16:54,400 --> 01:16:58,120
Speaker 3: they should just our Jon and Algiers just do it

1460
01:16:58,160 --> 01:16:59,920
Speaker 3: that way. But then it's all the worst place for

1461
01:17:00,040 --> 01:17:01,800
Speaker 3: Algier with it when they try to do the two

1462
01:17:01,800 --> 01:17:05,200
Speaker 3: back thing. It's like, oh, obvious run situation. Let's hand

1463
01:17:05,240 --> 01:17:07,120
Speaker 3: it to Algier straight up the middle.

1464
01:17:07,439 --> 01:17:14,919
Speaker 5: Yeah okay, so uh hopefully Jones as a game all right, that.

1465
01:17:15,120 --> 01:17:18,719
Speaker 3: Is now gonna do it For week ten. Action Network

1466
01:17:18,920 --> 01:17:24,400
Speaker 3: podcast presented by DraftKings, be sure to check out Stucky

1467
01:17:24,520 --> 01:17:30,400
Speaker 3: on the Favorites Big Bets on Campus as well drawn X.

1468
01:17:30,960 --> 01:17:34,439
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1469
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1470
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1472
01:17:45,200 --> 01:17:47,080
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1473
01:17:47,160 --> 01:17:58,760
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1474
01:18:03,760 --> 01:18:08,320
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1475
01:18:08,320 --> 01:18:11,639
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1476
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