Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news single best idea it
Speaker 1: could be a twenty thirty forty minute podcast today. What
Speaker 1: a set of insights now as we move on days
Speaker 1: from announcements in the Rose Garden a bombshell announcement. You know,
Speaker 1: you look at home. You're at home, and I'm in
Speaker 1: the coffee table that builds on my lap, and the
Speaker 1: phone's on the coffee table and I don't want to
Speaker 1: pick it up because they don't know what the news
Speaker 1: will be. So of course, well Kennel Field was on
Speaker 1: my lap last night and I picked it up at
Speaker 1: nine point fifteen and there was China saying no, we're
Speaker 1: not going to play, and the market's girad and the
Speaker 1: emerging markets went off in Japan went up. You know,
Speaker 1: you know the story. But then we get a real
Speaker 1: lift this morning, and there's still great uncertainty out there. Really,
Speaker 1: thanks to all of Bloomberg for letting us go commercial
Speaker 1: free in the nine o'clock hour. It makes a big,
Speaker 1: big difference to get the market open. We started strong
Speaker 1: with the Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, always controversial YouTube Live
Speaker 1: Jat lit up like a candle. Thanks for those constructive
Speaker 1: comments pro and con. Paul Kruman on what he won
Speaker 1: the Nobel Prize for and what it's about is nonlinear tariffs.
Speaker 2: Let's listen, the damage done by tariffs is not proportional
Speaker 2: to the tariff, is proportional to the square of the tariff.
Speaker 2: So you know, a twenty percent tariff is something like
Speaker 2: four times as bad as a ten percent tariff. Now
Speaker 2: putting numbers to it, I mean long run, it's finding
Speaker 2: the long run impact of these terraffs is probably look,
Speaker 2: it's going to be worse than Brexit. So in Brexit
Speaker 2: we tend to think it was three or four percent
Speaker 2: of British GDP. Maybe this could easily be more than that.
Speaker 2: Though there's a limit to it deep it's hard to get.
Speaker 2: It's not you know, in itself, it's a serious hit
Speaker 2: to the economy. But the funny thing is the short
Speaker 2: run it can be worse. And the reason it can
Speaker 2: be worse is that is the extreme uncertainty that we're creating.
Speaker 2: And so you know, once you know, even with these
Speaker 2: high tariffs will settle down, eventually, business will find ways
Speaker 2: to cope. Costs will be higher, GDP will be lower,
Speaker 2: But that's you know we'll make that transition.
Speaker 1: Paul Krugman, of course, on his substack, can't say enough
Speaker 1: about it. Subscribe to Paul Krugman substack. He's writing, if anything,
Speaker 1: more often than when he was with the New York Times,
Speaker 1: and it's on fire. Whatever your political beliefs, We've really
Speaker 1: enjoyed the academic debate of this. We really think all
Speaker 1: of the different heavyweights worldwide, worldwide, who weighed in. Jason Furman,
Speaker 1: writing in the Financial Times today was heated. A major
Speaker 1: shout out to Lamond in Paris, who, in Lamond English
Speaker 1: had the two economists that Peter Navarro of the White
Speaker 1: House mentioned. They wrote an essay I don't have their
Speaker 1: names in front of me. One's out of Berkeley, one's
Speaker 1: out of Mit, and they were absolutely scathing and being
Speaker 1: quoted by Navarro. Look to Lemonde in English. It's really
Speaker 1: worthwhile to get a snapshot of what's going on in France.
Speaker 1: Thank you Adam Too's fear interest in Bloomberg. I'm surveillance
Speaker 1: and always thank you to Professor Blanchard and at the
Speaker 1: Peterson Institute. Great to hear from you as well. It
Speaker 1: was great to hear from Libby Cantrell. She's a pimpco
Speaker 1: she's a great student of the parties. In the Ballet
Speaker 1: in Washington, Libby Cantrell, I'm Trump and his Republicans.
Speaker 3: This speaks to the fact that this party is the
Speaker 3: party of Trump, and many folks in the House have
Speaker 3: the President to thank for even being there in the
Speaker 3: first place. And so this is why I think there's
Speaker 3: been a real reluctance to push back in public. Again,
Speaker 3: there is some private push back, but again, I think
Speaker 3: this is a worldview that President Trump has had for
Speaker 3: forty years. This is what we keep telling our clients,
Speaker 3: and he ran on this. He believes he has a
Speaker 3: mandate to fulfill this. He believes that there's a lot
Speaker 3: of unfinished business from the first administration. And I think
Speaker 3: that the market obviously wants to maybe see through this
Speaker 3: or hope that there is something this will result in
Speaker 3: a different outcome. But our view is teriff rates are
Speaker 3: going to be going up and that will have a
Speaker 3: headwind on you know, growth and likely have implications for inflation.
Speaker 3: To the degree is going to depend on the stickiness
Speaker 3: of all this, obviously, but I think there it is
Speaker 3: naive to think that we are not going to see
Speaker 3: probably significantly higher terrorf levels.
Speaker 1: Lebby Controller of Pimkell. We talked to her as well
Speaker 1: about the path down the road, and with Mia mcguinnis
Speaker 1: yesterday as well on the budget, on the fiscal plan
Speaker 1: and of text. Lebby Control was somewhat optimistic that they
Speaker 1: could actually get through text legislation this year. We'll have
Speaker 1: to wait and see on that. We're deep into two
Speaker 1: this so he's like, you know, it's like November, second
Speaker 1: week of the year. What a long year. We're deep
Speaker 1: into April in this fractious two thousand and twenty five.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening on your commute across America on YouTube,
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