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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller.

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Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,

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Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news.

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Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever

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Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast.

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Speaker 3: The Israel Hamas war does seem to be broadening out

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Speaker 3: the US and the UK striking back against Houthi rebels

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Speaker 3: who've been targeting shipping in the Red Sea, and now

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Speaker 3: the Huti are vowing to strike back oil hire as

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Speaker 3: a result, Let's take a deeper dive into the story,

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Speaker 3: look also at the political fallout. Wendy Schiller, professor at

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Speaker 3: Brown University, joins us. Now, Wendy, thanks for being with us.

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Speaker 3: We appreciate it. Did the Biden admonstration have much of

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Speaker 3: a choice in its response? And what's the worry about

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Speaker 3: how deeply we may or may not get involved in

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Speaker 3: a broader conflict?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, I don't think the Biden decision had

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Speaker 4: any choice. I mean, obviously we are a major superpower,

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Speaker 4: but we also have very strong commercial interests in making

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Speaker 4: sure that commercial carriers can use shipping lanes unaccosted. You know,

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Speaker 4: we've had issues with piracy in the past and other

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Speaker 4: parts of the world, but this is you know, reminiscent

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Speaker 4: of a conflicts that we've had over the years, the

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Speaker 4: last fifty sixty years, and it reminds voters of our

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Speaker 4: dependence on foreign oil and the globalization of the energy market.

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Speaker 4: And so I think that's where Biden has to sort

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Speaker 4: of figure out how to sell this to the American

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Speaker 4: people as important to the United States, but also to

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Speaker 4: the environmentalists, talk about where we are in terms of

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Speaker 4: our energy independence.

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Speaker 5: Now, when you the Houthi rebels, they said they have

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Speaker 5: no issue launching more attacks after this, So how much

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Speaker 5: of a thread of that and are the our only

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Speaker 5: point of concern right now?

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean the biggest concern I think to the

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Speaker 4: United States directly is that we do have carriers in golf,

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Speaker 4: We have personnel all over the Middle East, and we

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Speaker 4: want to make sure that they are safe. I think

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Speaker 4: that's the biggest fear the Biden decision has currently. But

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Speaker 4: there are also lots of civilians who are in commercial shipping,

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Speaker 4: and you know, the United States feels some obligation to

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Speaker 4: protect that kind of commerce. So I think these are

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Speaker 4: the pressures on the Biden administration. I think we're fully

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Speaker 4: equipped militarily to really deal with any and all of

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Speaker 4: the attacks. But I think they're trying to show fairly

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Speaker 4: massive force early. And want to say massive, I mean

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Speaker 4: joining with the UK and doing it all at once,

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Speaker 4: doing a number of different strikes to limit civilian casualties,

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Speaker 4: but also make sure that those that would attack the

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Speaker 4: United States know that there will be a response every

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Speaker 4: time they do, and that's been I think Obama, Trump,

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Speaker 4: and Biden. I don't see a lot of daylight across

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Speaker 4: any of the three presidents in that regard.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's shift gears a bit. I would imagine Wendy,

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Speaker 3: if you live in Iowa a year of a different stock,

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Speaker 3: you're kind of a heartier breed. Is the weather going

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Speaker 3: to matter for the Caucus?

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Speaker 4: I think the weather doesn't matter as much as maybe

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Speaker 4: those of us on the East Coast or West Coast

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Speaker 4: who are experience in bad weather might be deterred from

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Speaker 4: getting out the door. I think that the caucuses are

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Speaker 4: locally held, and so I think they are prepared for it.

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Speaker 4: I think that Trump supporters, and Trump himself has an

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Speaker 4: advantage in that way because there's generally more enthusiasm consistently

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Speaker 4: among Trump voters in the nomination process so far, particularly

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Speaker 4: in Iowa, than there are the Dysantis or Haley voters.

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Speaker 4: So that's the big challenge for Nikki Haley. Can she

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Speaker 4: draw close enough? She'll probably lose Iowa. I think most

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Speaker 4: of us agree on that, But can she actually draw

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Speaker 4: close enough to say I'm viable going into New Hampshire

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Speaker 4: and really put DeSantis on the sidelines. And if she

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Speaker 4: can do that with some percentage of the vote, maybe

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Speaker 4: more than the fifteen percent or twenty percent, maybe twenty

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Speaker 4: five percent, something like in that range, I think it

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Speaker 4: makes her more viable as a candidate going into New Hampshire.

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Speaker 4: As I just said. Also, the broader primary season becomes

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Speaker 4: more attractive for donors for Nikka Haley if she can

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Speaker 4: slice out a bigger coalition for her in Ireland.

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Speaker 3: Remind me how that the caucuses work. That the local

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Speaker 3: it's not winner take all, right, No.

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Speaker 4: No, it's basically people people. It's yeah, it's in terms

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Speaker 4: of the precincts, so people actually go to their precinct.

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Speaker 4: It can be a school, it can be a library,

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Speaker 4: it can be somebody's home, and people vote in that

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Speaker 4: area for their choice. Right, But you know, the Republicans

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Speaker 4: have proportional representation in their primaries at least going till

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Speaker 4: March fifteenth, So this is an interesting thing people are forgetting.

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Speaker 4: You can pick up delegates throughout this contest until the

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Speaker 4: middle of March, So even though Trump looks like the

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Speaker 4: big front runner, we don't get to winter take off

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Speaker 4: for a couple more months. So that means people like

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Speaker 4: Haley and the Santis can pick off or collect delegates,

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Speaker 4: and I think that makes a difference at least in

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Speaker 4: the next couple of weeks.

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Speaker 5: So if you can, we'll dig into the economics a

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Speaker 5: little bit of this. So like we do, we have

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Speaker 5: the electioneer, we have the Warren Ukraine, we have the

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Speaker 5: Warren Gaza. How is this affecting the markets? If you

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Speaker 5: can just dig deeper into the market reaction from all

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Speaker 5: of this put together, well, I mean.

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Speaker 4: I think, you know, I think the question is consumer

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Speaker 4: confidence in both government but also in market predictions. Because

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Speaker 4: you know, there was supposed to be a recession didn't

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Speaker 4: really turn out that way. We have maybe a soft lanning.

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Speaker 4: Maybe they'll be a little bit more of a slow down,

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Speaker 4: but we've seen a very healthy job market just last month.

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Speaker 4: So the question is who are we going to believe

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Speaker 4: the same kinds of forces that have infiltrated politics in

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Speaker 4: terms of misinformation, perception, you know, partisanship, the lens of

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Speaker 4: looking at the economy through partisanship will start to affect

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Speaker 4: people's trusting of economic reditions and the market at the

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Speaker 4: very high elite levels. Not but for people who are thinking,

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Speaker 4: do I put my money in a savings account in

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Speaker 4: a bank that I know, or do I put it

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Speaker 4: in the stock market? You know, the bank that you

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Speaker 4: know is becoming far more attractive given interest rates than

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Speaker 4: the amorphous stock market. So I think that people who

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Speaker 4: do watch consumer behavior in terms of the stock market

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Speaker 4: have to pay attention to what's happening in politics now

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Speaker 4: in terms of credibility to figure out where people will

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Speaker 4: actually end up putting their money as we go forward

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Speaker 4: this year.

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Speaker 3: One of his cases, Donald Trump showed up yesterday kind

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Speaker 3: of turned it into a political rally of sorts. Is

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Speaker 3: there any degree that you can sense of maybe as

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Speaker 3: it makes all of these appearances in court, usually that

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Speaker 3: there's some Trump fatigue.

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Speaker 4: I think we're seeing the opposite, and I have been

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Speaker 4: surprised by that that trend, but the opposite in terms

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Speaker 4: of his core supporters. There is no bad publicity in

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Speaker 4: Trump's world. In Trump's mind, every single opportunity to present

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Speaker 4: himself and make his case he takes, and he takes

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Speaker 4: with vigor and energy. And these are the kinds of

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Speaker 4: things that are frustrating to the Biden campaign. So he

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Speaker 4: will now get the kind of free press, even if

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Speaker 4: we all think maybe it's press, but he thinks it's

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Speaker 4: good press, good opportunity, and I'll get the same kind

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Speaker 4: of free press he got in twenty sixteen when everybody

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Speaker 4: covered him, and I think that's what he's looking for.

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Speaker 4: Will will be Trump fatigue three or four months from

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Speaker 4: now among independence and suburban voters who have not yet

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Speaker 4: committed in their choice for twenty twenty four, that's the

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Speaker 4: big question mark. The more we see it here from

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump in what we call the mainstream media, do

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Speaker 4: we get more tired of Donald Trump? He's betting the opposite,

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Speaker 4: at least for the primaries to show up his base

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Speaker 4: once we get to the summer. I think that's where

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Speaker 4: we really have to take a look at whether people

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Speaker 4: are going to choose Trump and all that Trump brings

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Speaker 4: versus right now Biden. And that's where if we're going

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Speaker 4: to see Trump fatigue, we'll start to see it.

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Speaker 3: Then, Okay, what's the gap between undecided versus his core supporters.

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Speaker 4: So let's just say maybe there's you know, the public party,

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Speaker 4: you know, you'll do polls and people say they'll vote

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Speaker 4: for Trump, will vote for Trump. But essentially there's about

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Speaker 4: thirty eight to forty percent as we saw in the

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Speaker 4: primaries in twenty sixteen and might see again of support

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Speaker 4: for Donald Trump that's unwaiverable that they will not budge.

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Speaker 4: So it does leave open the possibility of winning the nomination.

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Speaker 4: But those people are Trumpers and they're never going to

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Speaker 4: sway and they're never going to affect from Trump. But

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Speaker 4: there's still a lot of open GOP people. And also

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Speaker 4: there are primaries that are open to independence to register,

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Speaker 4: like New Hampshire where you can register to vote in

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Speaker 4: the Republican primary. So a lot of states have that opportunity.

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Speaker 4: That's what could swing these Republican primaries, not the closed

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Speaker 4: primaries of the type that are typically in place like

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Speaker 4: South Carolina. But the open primaries are semi open where

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Speaker 4: you can register as a Republican and then vote in

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Speaker 4: that primary if independents choose to do that. That is

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Speaker 4: what the Haley campaign is counting on to make her competitive.

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Speaker 4: As we move forward, and before.

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Speaker 5: You go really quickly Biden's running meete. There's been different talk.

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Speaker 5: I know you Mind mentioned it too, Kamala Harris still

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Speaker 5: still sticking with them on the side or is he

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Speaker 5: going somewhere else?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I've said before that picking somebody like Raphael Warnock,

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Speaker 4: who won in Georgia four times technically and who certainly

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Speaker 4: in terms of making sure that you stay loyal to

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Speaker 4: your promise to the African American community, to pick an

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Speaker 4: African American candidate, Biden said, woman candidate. But nonetheless, that's

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Speaker 4: somebody who can make Georgia competitive. Right now, Georgia won't

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Speaker 4: be competitive. I don't think in twenty twenty four there's

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Speaker 4: nobody on the bout that really will generate Democrat turnout.

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Speaker 4: So my proposal has been that if he is faltering

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Speaker 4: generally in ways that are sort of systemic against Trump

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Speaker 4: by the summer, by the convention, there could be a

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Speaker 4: shift in who he selects as his VP.

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Speaker 3: Wendy, always a pleasure, appreciate it. Thanks for the Updaid,

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Speaker 3: Wendy Shilder, Professor at Brown University.

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Speaker 6: You're listening to the Team Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg

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Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 6: the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen

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Speaker 6: on demand wherever you get your podcast.

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Speaker 3: What stands out to me right now, Lisa? The two

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Speaker 3: year treasury which is more policy reactive. That's seven basis

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Speaker 3: points lower four sixteen. That would be just around the

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Speaker 3: lowest since May, an unexpected decline and producer prices reinforcing bets.

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Speaker 3: The Federal Reserve cuts rates this year. Of course, it

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Speaker 3: comes after the hotter that expected CPI figures we got yesterday.

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Speaker 3: Let's get the MAC review now. Phil Orlando, chief equity

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Speaker 3: strategists with Federated Hermes, joins us. Phil, good to talk

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Speaker 3: to you. Take your pick. What narrative have you latched onto?

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Speaker 7: There are many from which to choose. I'm less inclined

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Speaker 7: to look at the PPI, the wholesale inflation this morning.

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Speaker 7: Yesterday's CPI critically important, and then the personal Consumption Expenditure

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Speaker 7: Index coming up later in the month. So looking at

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Speaker 7: yesterday's CPI, that number was just much hotter than expected.

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Speaker 7: November year on year nominal was up three point one percent,

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Speaker 7: December three point four percent, and that was a couple

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Speaker 7: of tecks higher than expected. So what you look at

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Speaker 7: what the Federal Reserve has been doing. You've got some

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Speaker 7: investors out there. Frankly, I think the consensus is expecting

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Speaker 7: the Fed to cut rate six times over the course

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Speaker 7: of this year, with that first cut coming in the

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Speaker 7: month of March. We just don't see that. Given how

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Speaker 7: hot inflation still is, we think the Fed is going

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Speaker 7: to be patient, vigilant, try to make sure that inflation

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Speaker 7: is heading down to their two percent core PCEE target.

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Speaker 7: So we're looking at a couple of rate cuts in

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Speaker 7: the back half of the year, not six that are,

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Speaker 7: you know, starting in the month of March.

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Speaker 5: And what about recession thoughts? Are they on the back burner?

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Speaker 7: We are officially in the soft landing camp. That said,

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Speaker 7: we still expect the economy to slow materially over the

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Speaker 7: course of the next year or so. So you look

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Speaker 7: at this fourth quarter that's gonna get flashed in about

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Speaker 7: two weeks, we're at one point five percent GDP growth.

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Speaker 7: That compares to the third quarter at four point nine percent.

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Speaker 7: That's a pretty significant decline. And then as you look

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Speaker 7: at say the first three quarters of this year, we're

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Speaker 7: gonna be limping along, we think at about a one

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Speaker 7: percent run rate. So the Federal Reserve, in our view,

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Speaker 7: has done exactly what it intended to do over the

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Speaker 7: last two years. They took the funds rate from zero

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Speaker 7: to five and a half percent, They cut their balance

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Speaker 7: sheet from nine trillion dollars to you know, seven point

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Speaker 7: seven trillion dollars. They were hoping to see the economy slow,

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Speaker 7: the rate of unemployment increase a little bit, inflation come

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Speaker 7: down materially, and all of that's playing out at this point.

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Speaker 7: I think they just want to be you know, very careful,

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Speaker 7: very cautious, very patient to make sure that inflation is

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Speaker 7: sustainably moving down to their target. I think they'll come

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Speaker 7: to that conclusion by the time we get to say

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Speaker 7: the July FMC meeting.

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Speaker 3: I don't want to get two wonky, but I'm still

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Speaker 3: having a little trouble wrapping my thoughts around the sheltered

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Speaker 3: component and how that specifically is measured in whether it

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Speaker 3: really is accurate at this point, well.

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Speaker 7: We can discuss or debate whether or not it's accurate

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Speaker 7: or not. But here's the big picture. That inflation peaked

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Speaker 7: last year and is coming down, no question, full stop.

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Speaker 7: But you look at the housing market, and in calendar

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Speaker 7: twenty one and calendar twenty two, housing prices in the

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Speaker 7: United States went up by fifty percent five zero percent.

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Speaker 7: So while it's absolutely true that inflation is generally coming

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Speaker 7: down and that housing prices have sort of peaked here,

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Speaker 7: we're not seeing a fifty percent decline in housing prices.

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Speaker 7: And the investment that we make as individuals in our

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Speaker 7: homes for a lot of us is the most significant

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Speaker 7: investment that we have in our personal portfolios. I think

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Speaker 7: that's weighing on consumer attitude and consumer mentality, and then

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Speaker 7: that translates back into the rental component of the CPI calculation,

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Speaker 7: which accounts for about forty percent of that number. So

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Speaker 7: it will come down and wash itself out over time,

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Speaker 7: but it's not going to happen tomorrow, and to some

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Speaker 7: degree that's creating some of the noise and some of

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Speaker 7: the stickiness in the data.

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Speaker 5: So with all that said, felt CPI PPI, How are

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Speaker 5: you changing your strategy moving into twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 7: So we sort of made that change back in late

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Speaker 7: October when the S and P five hundred got to

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Speaker 7: that forty one hundred level, we felt that that was

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Speaker 7: dramatically oversold, and we felt that we could get to

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Speaker 7: the forty eight hundred level by the end of this year,

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Speaker 7: the fifty two hundred level by the end of calendar

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Speaker 7: twenty four. And we felt that the rally last year

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Speaker 7: was disproportionately driven by the mag seven and we felt

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Speaker 7: that there was going to be reverse the mean there.

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Speaker 7: So what we wanted to do and we're maintaining that

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Speaker 7: strategy now is look at the sectors of the market

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Speaker 7: that had been left for dead that we felt would

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Speaker 7: finally find some love. So domestic small cap growth, domestic

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Speaker 7: large cap value, and international the areas that we think

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Speaker 7: are going to be the winners in the fourth quarter

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Speaker 7: of last year and over the course of calendar twenty four.

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Speaker 3: All right, your view overall of technology in the new year,

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Speaker 3: and then since we got their earnings today, the financials.

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Speaker 7: So you know, growth stocks, technology stocks are still great companies.

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Speaker 7: I'm not going to tell you that Google or Softy

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Speaker 7: or Nvidio or bad companies. They're not. The question is

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Speaker 7: that valuations may have gotten a little bit ahead of

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Speaker 7: themselves in terms of all of the AI FOMO that

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Speaker 7: we experienced over the course of last year. So at

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Speaker 7: this point we are slightly underweight growth and technology, but

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Speaker 7: we're not zero. We're maintaining a slight underweight position. Financials

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Speaker 7: are one of the areas that we really like, along

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Speaker 7: with energy and healthcare. Those were areas you look at

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Speaker 7: financials for example, this time last year, first quarter of

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Speaker 7: last year, those stocks were absolutely obliterated based upon the

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Speaker 7: problems with the commercial real estate market. A lot of

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Speaker 7: those stocks were down fifty percent. They sort of double

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Speaker 7: bottomed in the fall and then have started to come

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Speaker 7: back up. So there's a lot of catch up that

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Speaker 7: has to happen there. And you look at some of

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Speaker 7: the quality numbers, for example, that came out of JP

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Speaker 7: Morgan this morning. We think financials are a sector that

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Speaker 7: that's probably going to do pretty well over the course

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Speaker 7: of this year as they sort of get back on

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Speaker 7: trend in terms of evaluation.

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Speaker 5: Felt disinflation good for markets or not good for markets?

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Speaker 7: I think everyone would be happy to see the FED

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Speaker 7: hit their core PCE number at two percent. But here's

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Speaker 7: sort of the interesting thing. We're rapidly approaching that number,

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Speaker 7: and by our account, we could be there by the

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Speaker 7: end of this year at the beginning of next year.

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Speaker 7: But you look at the fed's latest SEP, the Summary

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Speaker 7: of Economic Projections that they publish just in the middle

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Speaker 7: of December, they're telling us that they're not confident that

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Speaker 7: we're going to get to that two percent level until

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Speaker 7: the end of calendar twenty twenty six. That's three years

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Speaker 7: from now. So where's the disconnect here? Is the FED

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Speaker 7: being too conservative or do they know something that we

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Speaker 7: don't know that this last mile, so to speak, I'm

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Speaker 7: getting to that two percent target is going to be

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Speaker 7: like hand to hand combat, and they're taking a very prudent,

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Speaker 7: very patient approach, just to make sure that things are

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Speaker 7: moving in the right direction.

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Speaker 3: All right, unfair question time year ENDO S and P

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Speaker 3: five hundred target.

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Speaker 7: Not unfair. Fifty two hundred's our number.

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Speaker 3: Okay, we're right now forty seven to seventy six. Also,

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Speaker 3: you know, still we.

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Speaker 7: Think we're going to be up eight or nine percent

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Speaker 7: over the course of this year, which is a very

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Speaker 7: modest year compared to the twenty four percent game we

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Speaker 7: saw last year.

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Speaker 3: Phil, always a pleasure, appreciate it. Happy Friday, have a

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Speaker 3: great weekend. Phil Orlando, Chief Equity Strategists with Federated Hermes.

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Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape Can's our live program Bloomberg

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Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 6: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 6: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Well, we all know about geopolitical risk lease. We saw

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Speaker 3: oil pop hire after US and allies launched air strikes

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Speaker 3: against Houthi rebels and Yemen. As an investor, can you

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Speaker 3: mitigate risks like that? Or should even try? Let's get

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Speaker 3: some answers this morning Global Macro View with Jeffrey klentz Up,

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Speaker 3: the Global Strategist, Chief Global Strategists at Charles Schwab. Thanks

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Speaker 3: for being with us. We call risk assets for a reason.

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Speaker 3: Should I be losing sleep over events over which I

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Speaker 3: have no control?

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Speaker 8: Well, these types of events are gosh, you know, just

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Speaker 8: an ever present risk.

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Speaker 9: When it comes to investing.

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Speaker 8: We've seen backups a chow point at the Panama Canal

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Speaker 8: for months now. It's only getting worse as we head

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Speaker 8: into February, as the cargo traffic through that particular vital

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Speaker 8: global supply chain link is really cutting back to less

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Speaker 8: than fifty percent of capacity. By February, forty percent of

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Speaker 8: the world's freight traffic moves to the Panama Canal.

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Speaker 9: That's an issue.

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Speaker 8: The Red Sea certainly moves a lot of energy, yet

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Speaker 8: the world is oversupplied right now, and so I think

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Speaker 8: that's one of the reasons. Yes, we're seeing a balance

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Speaker 8: and energy prices, but we are not in a deficit situation,

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Speaker 8: and as a result of that, I think this is

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Speaker 8: something that can be probably absorbed. We're not likely to

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Speaker 8: see the type of surge to input prices that we

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Speaker 8: saw during the pandemic tied to supply chain issues related

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Speaker 8: to these particular their threats at these two vital supply

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Speaker 8: chain choke points. That could be different were they to

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Speaker 8: linger into the latter part of this year, where maybe

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Speaker 8: we run into an undersupply situation with energy.

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Speaker 9: But for right now now, I.

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Speaker 8: Don't think you need to lose sleep over this just

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Speaker 8: expecting this is part of one of those risks when

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Speaker 8: it comes to investing.

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Speaker 5: Now something else people might lose some sleepover interest rates.

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Speaker 5: I want to talk give a little economic outlook yesterday

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Speaker 5: where Cleveland FED President Loretta Mester, she said Central Brankos

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Speaker 5: probably will have to wait past March before they can

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Speaker 5: start cutting interest rates. What's your take on this.

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Speaker 8: I think that the market has gotten a little carried

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Speaker 8: away with the magnitude of rate cuts likely in twenty

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Speaker 8: twenty four.

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Speaker 9: I think it's.

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Speaker 8: Probably something closer to what the FIT has been telling us,

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Speaker 8: maybe three or four rate cuts rather than five or six.

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Speaker 8: And some of the reasons for that is the potential

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Speaker 8: volatility in the path of inflation. We know inflation rarely

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Speaker 8: subsides in a straight line, and we're now beginning to

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Speaker 8: see this. As we get closer to the Fed's target,

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Speaker 8: it's getting harder and harder to push those numbers down.

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Speaker 8: We know housing remains very challenging in the US to

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Speaker 8: try and push those housing rental rates down, and the.

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Speaker 9: Result is that, yes, it may take a little bit longer.

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Speaker 8: So I think the rally we saw in the market

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Speaker 8: at the end of last year, enthusiasm around a soft

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Speaker 8: landing and a flood of rate cuts might need to

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Speaker 8: be tempered early this year, as maybe we see a

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Speaker 8: push out in the beginning and the magnitude of the

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Speaker 8: number of cuts we expect from the Fed.

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Speaker 3: Hey, Jeff, is disinflation good for markets or not?

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Speaker 8: Well, it's generally good in that it lowers borrowing costs

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Speaker 8: and we generally see a little bit more investment by businesses.

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Speaker 8: But we've really yet to see that pick up, right,

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Speaker 8: So we're still in an environment of much higher rates

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Speaker 8: than businesses have been used to a few years ago,

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Speaker 8: and so we're not seeing the type of capital expenditures

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Speaker 8: or hiring that would normally go along with lower rates

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Speaker 8: and the disinflation. So in general it's a good thing,

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Speaker 8: but it takes some time for that begin to show

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Speaker 8: up in economic activity.

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Speaker 5: Ajef's big bank earnings out today. That's been the big talk.

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Speaker 5: If rates go lower, what's the impact of margins? I mean,

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Speaker 5: is that still a place to invest?

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Speaker 8: I do think financials are our favorite sector for twenty

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Speaker 8: twenty four, and there's a variety of reasons.

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Speaker 9: One is that you've got this balance of you.

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Speaker 8: Know, what, what are banks going to earn in the

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Speaker 8: short term on their cash, balanced by the fact that

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Speaker 8: they hold a lot of maybe longer data fixed income

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Speaker 8: because of that's how.

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Speaker 9: They hold their reserves.

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Speaker 8: And of course we all know the challenges that caused

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Speaker 8: last year with the route in some of those banking

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Speaker 8: stocks on that big surgeon interest rate. So there's that

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Speaker 8: balance in terms of what the yield curve does this year.

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Speaker 8: But maybe even more importantly is the credit outlook. And

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Speaker 8: looking at the credit picture, it looks relatively bright. Usually

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Speaker 8: we're going to see soaring bankruptcies through a deeper downturn

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Speaker 8: in the economy.

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Speaker 9: In the economy, we didn't get that this time, and

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00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 9: we may not.

438
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,240
Speaker 8: Businesses seem to have been holding more cash. The economy

439
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 8: seems to be managing its way through this downturn and

440
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,720
Speaker 8: manufacturing with a bit more strength and services, and the

441
00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,400
Speaker 8: result of that is that we may see much less

442
00:22:57,400 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 8: in terms of losses and provisioning for losses bank So

443
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,199
Speaker 8: are actually pretty bright outlook for the banks, given how

444
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 8: they are raced on a valuation basis for a more

445
00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:06,119
Speaker 8: difficult environment.

446
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,680
Speaker 3: What's the outlook for the consumer? You mentioned loan loss

447
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 3: provisions and credit cards. Probably not as high as we

448
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:15,439
Speaker 3: would have expected, But what is the outlook there for

449
00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 3: the consumer?

450
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 8: So much is going to be dependent. I think upon

451
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 8: the job market. We've seen some signs of layoffs last year,

452
00:23:25,840 --> 00:23:28,400
Speaker 8: but really it's not much of a follow through. Businesses

453
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:31,919
Speaker 8: sening to be hoarding labor, and we know that a

454
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 8: lot of consumer spending really comes down to confidence in

455
00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:37,879
Speaker 8: the employment situation and wages, and as long as that

456
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 8: remains fairly high, I think you can see a consumer

457
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 8: that continues to spend.

458
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,400
Speaker 5: And what about your twenty twenty four, your whole global outlook,

459
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:45,560
Speaker 5: what are you liking right now?

460
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 8: So I'm actually looking outside the US overall, what we've

461
00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 8: seen is a pivot, but not less of a pivot

462
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:58,200
Speaker 8: towards ray cuts and more of a pivot to international outperformance.

463
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 8: After years of the US market lead the way. Sure,

464
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 8: last year on a cap weighted basis, the S and

465
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 8: P five hundred beat the rest of the world. But

466
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,720
Speaker 8: if you look at what the average stock did using

467
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 8: the equal weighted benchmarks, we actually saw the EFI index

468
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 8: outperformed the S and P five hundred, The average international

469
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:17,199
Speaker 8: stock beat the average US stock really eclipsed by just

470
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 8: those seven magnificent stocks in the AI universe that really

471
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 8: led the US cap weighted into CES downperform. I think

472
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 8: that broader performance is going to be revealed this year

473
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 8: in a period where we're going to see some volatility

474
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 8: in the economic data and the inflation picture. I think

475
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:35,880
Speaker 8: those stocks outside the US lower valuations, maybe a better

476
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 8: earnings environment. As a manufacturing sector recovers, that looks.

477
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:39,919
Speaker 9: Brighter to me.

478
00:24:40,400 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 8: I think we'll see the first year in a long

479
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 8: time of international market out performance.

480
00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 3: I looked to Charles Schwab when I want to know

481
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,840
Speaker 3: about the fund flows. What are you seeing on that front?

482
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 8: Investors are still favoring fixed income. Money is flowing into

483
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 8: the bond market after many years where it was just

484
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,919
Speaker 8: unattractive to be there, So that's where we're seeing money go.

485
00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 8: But at the margin, we're also seeing money flow into

486
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,640
Speaker 8: international equities. Perhaps that's a little bit of rebalancing after

487
00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 8: last year where the US out performed. But it is

488
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 8: interesting to note this has been several months now we've

489
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 8: seen more money flowing into international markets than the US markets,

490
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 8: and I'm speaking broadly for the industry as a whole,

491
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 8: and that's encouraging to me as well as investors maybe

492
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 8: reconsider their portfolios and broaden that diversification.

493
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 5: Hey, Jeff, before we go quickly, we started this segment

494
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,719
Speaker 5: here talking about risk. I want to bring it back

495
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,520
Speaker 5: full circle here, so you can hedge risk, but is

496
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 5: hedging worth it because it's not cheap.

497
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:35,200
Speaker 9: It really is not cheap.

498
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 8: And I think that's the one of the challenges here

499
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,720
Speaker 8: and one of the benefits of having a diversified portfolio

500
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 8: right now we just talked about is.

501
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 9: The fact that bonds are actually paying you.

502
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 8: They offer some interest now and are offering a little

503
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 8: bit of an offset when we go through these periods

504
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 8: of volatility. Just this morning, you know, a rally in

505
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 8: the bond market on this you know, revelation of these

506
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 8: attacks on the Hoofy rebels, and so you get a

507
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,880
Speaker 8: little bit of that volatility dampening effect in your portfolio

508
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:04,120
Speaker 8: with that classic sixty to forty mix. That maybe that's

509
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:07,120
Speaker 8: back as a dampening factor after so many years where

510
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 8: fixed income really didn't act as an effective hedge tequity volatility,

511
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 8: maybe we're beginning to see that now.

512
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:16,199
Speaker 3: Yeah, I missed out on five percent is what is

513
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 3: it three ninety three right now on a ten years

514
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 3: that still a screaming buy.

515
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 8: We still think that's attractive in a reason to extend duration.

516
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 8: We think that the around year end yields maybe around

517
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 8: that same level. So we don't see a big rally

518
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 8: in the fixed income markets, but we don't see a

519
00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 8: further sell off either, and that means you can pocket

520
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 8: some of that yield and benefit from the volatility damping effects.

521
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 3: Jeff always a pleasure, Appreciate it. Jeffrey Klinop, the chief

522
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 3: Global Strategist, joining us from Charles Schwab.

523
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:51,919
Speaker 6: You're listening to the tape Can's our live program, Bloomberg

524
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 6: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

525
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 6: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

526
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 6: You can also listen Love I have on Amazon Alexa

527
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 6: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play

528
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 6: Bloomberg eleven thirty.

529
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 3: Lisa, here's a question for you. Yeah, what is it

530
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:11,640
Speaker 3: that keeps you up at night?

531
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 4: Probably sleep?

532
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 5: I'm always worried about him. That keeps me up at night.

533
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 3: I know it's pretty much everything. Well, the folks at

534
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 3: the conference board put that question. The global CEOs Dana

535
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 3: Peterson's chief account of it is at the conference board

536
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 3: with the results of their survey, So Dana welcome. First

537
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 3: of all, are the big wigs in the C suite gloomy,

538
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:35,959
Speaker 3: happy or what?

539
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 10: It's kind of a mix. They're very worried about recessions

540
00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 10: and slow downs, as well as high inflation and geopolitics.

541
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,960
Speaker 10: But they are looking forward to growth and they certainly

542
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 10: have plans in terms of expansion and also investments and

543
00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 10: innovation to make sure that they do grow over the

544
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:54,120
Speaker 10: next year.

545
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 5: Now are what are their biggest worries? I know, recession, inflation,

546
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,160
Speaker 5: I mean, are they ready for worried? How are they preparing?

547
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 10: Well? The interesting thing is that given those two things

548
00:28:05,600 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 10: that they're very very worried about, they are not prepared

549
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:11,159
Speaker 10: to deal with another crisis having to do with a

550
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,119
Speaker 10: recession or high inflation. They're also very worried about labor

551
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 10: shortages and geopolitical risks, including wars, and for most of

552
00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 10: those things they are not really ready, but they are

553
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 10: thinking about, well, how do we push through despite these

554
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,919
Speaker 10: very high risks. And certainly when it comes to labor shortages,

555
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:33,120
Speaker 10: they're looking at attracting and retaining top talent, So that

556
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:39,120
Speaker 10: includes things like investing in their talent AI upskilling and retraining.

557
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 10: So they're certainly trying to find their way through the fog.

558
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 3: What is it that backs up those views? Is it

559
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 3: anecdotal evidence? Is it sales figures? I mean, they have

560
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 3: to be gloomy for reason, right.

561
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:56,320
Speaker 10: Well, CEOs are notorious for looking ahead and looking down

562
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 10: the road, and certainly it's also going to be colored

563
00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 10: by recently experience. Certainly, in recent experience, they've seen major

564
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 10: increases and input costs, and certainly that includes higher interest rates.

565
00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,360
Speaker 10: The cost of capital is elevated, and all that feeds

566
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 10: into inflation. They've seen around the world China slowing, Europe

567
00:29:14,840 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 10: is slowing. A number of conflicts are causing disruptions and

568
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 10: production and trade and investments, and all those things have

569
00:29:21,400 --> 00:29:22,680
Speaker 10: gotten them very worried.

570
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 5: So with all these negative things that we're hearing, how

571
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 5: did they even plan to grow profits in twenty twenty four.

572
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 10: Well, they're looking at expansion. So expansion means looking at

573
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 10: new regions and countries to investment new lines of business,

574
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 10: looking at new products and new services, and also using

575
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 10: tools like AI to really enhance the performance of their

576
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 10: businesses and also their workers. And they think all of

577
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 10: this is going to be great for not only cutting

578
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 10: costs and driving the bottom line, but also increasing profits.

579
00:29:55,800 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 3: Well wait a second. If they're worried about labor and

580
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 3: they want to hold on to their workers and top talent,

581
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:06,640
Speaker 3: are they paying them more? I mean, is it an

582
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 3: inflationary picture we're looking in.

583
00:30:09,720 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 10: Well, certainly when we look at the BLS data, Yes,

584
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 10: in those industries that are suffering from labor shortages, they

585
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 10: are paying their workers more. And also those industries where

586
00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 10: they're worried about people quitting or a lot of people

587
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 10: are retiring, they are raising wages. But again that's very costly,

588
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 10: so businesses are trying to find ways around that, and

589
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 10: a lot of that's through digital transformation and technology.

590
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 5: Now you're talking about the workers getting paid, but where

591
00:30:35,560 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 5: are they working? That's the big question. This whole battle

592
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:40,720
Speaker 5: back and forth between are you in the office, are

593
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 5: you at home?

594
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:42,160
Speaker 9: Where are you going?

595
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 5: Are CEOs? Are they just throwing in the towel and

596
00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 5: saying you know what you guys, do what you want

597
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 5: to do? Or are they going to try and try

598
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 5: and get more people in the office.

599
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 9: Well, it's interesting.

600
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:54,600
Speaker 10: We did ask about the imperative to bring people back

601
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 10: to the office, and it was really low. CEOs are

602
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:01,520
Speaker 10: not that focused on it. They're on flexibility and making

603
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 10: sure that their workers are having a good experience, that

604
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 10: they're collaborating, that the culture is very important, that there's

605
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 10: a right culture to keep their workers and also to

606
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 10: attract new workers. So again, you know, I think they're

607
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 10: recognizing that remote work is here to stay in some form,

608
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:20,719
Speaker 10: but they're really trying to enhance the culture to make

609
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 10: sure that people do when they come into the office,

610
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 10: they have a good experience and they're productive.

611
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 3: Is this survey broken down by region and industry and

612
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 3: if so, what, if anything does that tell you.

613
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 10: Yes, it's definitely broken down by region, and so that

614
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 10: includes the US, Europe, Japan, Latin America, and then the

615
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 10: rest of the world. When we look at those regions,

616
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 10: there's really not much of a big difference in terms

617
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:49,160
Speaker 10: of how CEOs think in terms of the big issues,

618
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 10: though I would note that Japan was very much worried

619
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 10: about labor shortages and also US China relations. When it

620
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 10: comes to industry, we looked at finance, manufacturing, and then

621
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 10: everyone else, and certainly there's not there's a big focus

622
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 10: in terms of finance on the cost of capital and

623
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 10: higher interest rates. But for the most part, there's a

624
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:14,040
Speaker 10: lot of synergies, a lot of commonality in the way

625
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 10: that CEOs around the world are viewing business, the business environment.

626
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, with manufacturing, since it's been in recession, I would

627
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 3: imagine they're a little a little more pessimistic than the

628
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 3: mode than most.

629
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 10: Yeah, they definitely are, And you're right, there has been

630
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 10: this manufacturing recession, and a lot of that reflects the

631
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 10: fact that manufacturing was one of the pandemic darlings. It

632
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,959
Speaker 10: did extremely well when everyone was stuck at home and

633
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:40,200
Speaker 10: buying things, but certainly as we shifted more towards a

634
00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 10: better balance between goods and services consumption, manufacturing experience a slump.

635
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 10: And certainly when you look around the world, you see

636
00:32:48,760 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 10: that there's very weak growth in China, also very weak

637
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 10: growth in Europe in and out of recession. UK Germany

638
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 10: may go back into recession. And these are areas that

639
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,840
Speaker 10: you tend to be big manufactoring hubs and also big

640
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 10: consumers of goods, and so if you have weak demand

641
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:08,320
Speaker 10: in those areas, that's certainly going to impact the manufacturing

642
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 10: sector as well.

643
00:33:09,360 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 5: Hey, Danna, we have about probably a minute left. You

644
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 5: had mentioned Ai so I want to kind of bring

645
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:16,680
Speaker 5: it back there because this has been another problem in

646
00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:19,920
Speaker 5: the workplace too. Our CEOs are they embracing it? You

647
00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 5: had mentioned they have to do some more training. How

648
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 5: are they tackling AI in twenty twenty four.

649
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 10: Well, it's interesting they're welcoming AI with open arms. Most

650
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 10: CEOs that we canvas said they have already adopted AI

651
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 10: or have plans to do so. So they're overwhelmingly for it.

652
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 10: They think that it's going to enhance profitability, it's going

653
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 10: to make their workers more productive. But they are wary.

654
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 10: They are aware that there are some risk and responsibilities.

655
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 10: There may be more regulation. You have to think about

656
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 10: how to make sure the AI is not going to

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Speaker 10: compromise your intellectual property or even that there will be

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Speaker 10: an unethical use. But for the most part, companies are

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Speaker 10: very welcoming. They're did about.

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Speaker 3: AI all right, Dana, Always a pleasure, appreciate it. Dana Peterson,

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Speaker 3: the chief account of is at the Conference Board.

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Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can

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Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever

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Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter

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Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three and I'm fall Sweeney.

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Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You

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Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio