1 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome back everybody. 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:08,959 Speaker 2: It's the College Football Betting Pro Show with Scott Bagman 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:12,400 Speaker 2: and Thorn and Eystrom. Sorry about last week, there was 4 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:16,239 Speaker 2: a miscommunication, but we are back to talk about some 5 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 2: college football this week. 6 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: Hey, would have been a good week for a show through. 7 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 2: I was eight and two last week, my best week 8 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 2: for my article so far, it's been pretty strong. Texas won, 9 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 2: so I enjoyed last week. How was week five for you? 10 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:35,680 Speaker 3: I was good? Good, another another Kansas victory. My chance 11 00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 3: are still on. 12 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 1: The ranked Kansas Jayhawks. 13 00:00:39,000 --> 00:00:41,919 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I found that one of the books I 14 00:00:42,040 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 3: was on was was dropping a mistake line which I 15 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:47,959 Speaker 3: hit for like four units and they paid the bet 16 00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 3: out anyway, which you get like one or two Christmases 17 00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 3: per year of like college football betting where the book 18 00:00:56,080 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 3: just gives you a gift. So that was cool as well. 19 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:02,360 Speaker 2: Hey, we'll take and remember you can follow us on 20 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:06,759 Speaker 2: the Twitter at Bogman Sports for myself at thor Ku 21 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:09,400 Speaker 2: on the Twitter. And we're going to talk about some 22 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 2: of these Week six games. We've got the Friday games, 23 00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:16,440 Speaker 2: we've got the top five games, and then Thor's picks 24 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:19,800 Speaker 2: plus where the cash is of course, so let's start 25 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 2: out with these Friday games thore We've got Nebraska minus 26 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 2: three at Rutgers, the overs forty eight and a half 27 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 2: in that one. We have Houston minus three at Memphis 28 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:31,839 Speaker 2: with the total of fifty seven and a half. 29 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: Colorado the State is at Nevada. 30 00:01:33,760 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 2: Nevada is three and a half point home favorites with 31 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 2: forty four as the over there, and you and o 32 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 2: V at San Jose State. San Jose State is a 33 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 2: seven point favorite with a fifty two and a half 34 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 2: point over. 35 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: What do you think of these games? 36 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:52,000 Speaker 2: Do you have a big lean on any of these 37 00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 2: ones for Friday thor Yeah? 38 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 3: So I have one bet on a game on Friday 39 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 3: and then one of these season I'm betting the game. 40 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 3: It's one of my favorite future bets on the board 41 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 3: right now, which I should probably mention. I'm not betting 42 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:08,880 Speaker 3: the San Jose State UNLV game, but I do expect 43 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 3: San Jose State to win that game and winning if 44 00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 3: they do, they're going to be two to zero in 45 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 3: their division with the tiebreaker over UNLV, who right now 46 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:21,320 Speaker 3: is in sole possession of that division. After that point, 47 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 3: uh uh, San Jose State gets Fresno State without j 48 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,519 Speaker 3: can Er Fresno State lost to Yukon last week in 49 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 3: the first game that j Caner was out. John Lobb, 50 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 3: Fresno State is going to be way way is way 51 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 3: way down with without Haner, and then after that San 52 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:42,639 Speaker 3: Jose State. Of their last six games, five of them 53 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 3: are against teams that I rank in the bottom twenty 54 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:47,160 Speaker 3: of the country. The only team that does in is 55 00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:49,959 Speaker 3: San Diego State. I ranked them in the bottom thirty 56 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 3: one because I rank them one hundredths in. San Diego 57 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:54,639 Speaker 3: State is way down and they've been dropping like a 58 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 3: rock in my POW ratings. So San Jose State has 59 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 3: one of the easiest upcoming schedules for any Power five team, 60 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 3: and yet they are still being listed by sports books 61 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:05,639 Speaker 3: at six to one to win the Mountain West. That 62 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 3: was just on my budds. Someone else told me it's 63 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 3: Caesars that it's six and a half to one, So 64 00:03:10,280 --> 00:03:13,519 Speaker 3: plus six fifty for San Jose State. Yeah, I don't 65 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:15,560 Speaker 3: see how San Jose State does not at least make 66 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 3: the conference title game, which makes the bet worth making 67 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 3: one way or the other, because then you can just 68 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 3: hedge to guarantee yourself a profit once they play either 69 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 3: you would assume Boise State or air Force. So I 70 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 3: thought i'd mentioned that one first. Not betting the side 71 00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 3: of that one, just because with the minus seven or 72 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 3: minus seven and a half, I think the margins are 73 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 3: too close. One bet I do like on that game 74 00:03:35,640 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 3: or on Friday for an individual game. It's a stinky game. 75 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 3: You're gonna have to hold your nose on this one. 76 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 3: But I like Colorado State to win their first game 77 00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 3: of the year. Why upsetting Nevada. Yeah, there's a lot 78 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 3: of things going on in that game. No one wants 79 00:03:50,880 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 3: to bet on Colorado State because they're zero to four, 80 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,560 Speaker 3: and I don't They haven't even gotten within fifteen points. 81 00:03:56,600 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 3: At least. 82 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 1: They looked really terrible the whole year too, so that's yeah. 83 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, even Morse haven't come within fifteen points of an opponent. 84 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 3: And then last time they lost to an FCS team 85 00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 3: forty one to ten. So that's on the Colorado State side, 86 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 3: and then on the Nevada side, they've won two games 87 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 3: against FBS teams, so I understand why Nevada's favored. But 88 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 3: there's a lot of context to bake in here, a 89 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 3: whole lot, So bear with me for a second. Number one, 90 00:04:21,960 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 3: This is a huge game for Jane Orvel, the Colorado 91 00:04:24,320 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 3: State head coach who came over from Nevada. This has 92 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 3: been the you know, sort of the circle game, sort 93 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 3: of similar to a couple of weeks ago when TCU 94 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 3: played SMU right with Sonny Dikes. That was a game 95 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 3: that he prioritized. A lot of sharps from were on 96 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 3: TCU in that game, and TCU ended up of course 97 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 3: winning by margin in that one. The other thing was Norvell. 98 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 3: It's not just Norvell has a lot of knowledge about 99 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:50,120 Speaker 3: the Nevada roster because he recruited most of them. It's 100 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 3: also that basically all of his assistants do as well, 101 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 3: because he basically rated the entire coaching staff, brought bottom 102 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 3: all over with him, and then he also brought eleven 103 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:03,960 Speaker 3: players from Novada to Colorado State, and so a lot 104 00:05:03,960 --> 00:05:05,880 Speaker 3: of the players that are playing in the game as 105 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:09,359 Speaker 3: well for Colorado State have intimate knowledge of the Nevada 106 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 3: personnel as well. The other thing is Colorado State's really 107 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 3: bad start. Most of it came down to how bad 108 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,720 Speaker 3: their offensive line was. Colorado State right now as we 109 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 3: sit here, they lead the nation in sacks allowed with 110 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 3: twenty six. Where that gets even crazier is they've played 111 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 3: one less game than most of the team. They only 112 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 3: played four games, so they're allowing more than six sacks 113 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 3: a game in the first four games of the norvel Era, 114 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 3: but they had multiple offensive linemen that were out in 115 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 3: each of those games. In fact, in the first four games, 116 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:46,919 Speaker 3: Colorado State not once has started the same configuration of 117 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,119 Speaker 3: players in their offensive each time they've had a different 118 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:51,560 Speaker 3: one because of all the injuries. Well, they had these 119 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 3: two tackles that were out last week. They're both coming 120 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 3: back in this one. And it's not just that they're 121 00:05:56,880 --> 00:05:59,080 Speaker 3: getting both their tackle I'm talking about Colorado State in 122 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:01,719 Speaker 3: both the tackles back. They also think that they're going 123 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 3: to get four defensive starters back in this game that 124 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 3: missed the last game the car the lost to Sacramento State, 125 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 3: So you're potentially getting back six or maybe even seven 126 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 3: starters for Colorado State. And and again a problematic areas 127 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 3: as well. Three of the guys coming back are in 128 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:21,720 Speaker 3: the secondary, so that's going to be greatly fortified as well. 129 00:06:21,839 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 3: So they're going to be the Colorado State is going 130 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 3: to be the health healthiest they've been all year. They've 131 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 3: the guys coming back have addressed the biggest problem, which 132 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 3: is it's a pass. It's a it's an air rate 133 00:06:31,760 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 3: pass first offense where the quarterback was getting hit right 134 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:36,479 Speaker 3: after he got the ball. That should not be the 135 00:06:36,520 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 3: case this week, especially going against Nevada who has a 136 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,800 Speaker 3: really bad defensive front. And then well, Nevada is getting 137 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 3: this credit for having beaten these two FBS teams. Those 138 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 3: were the very first two games of the season, if 139 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:50,839 Speaker 3: you remember. One of them was a week zero against 140 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:53,320 Speaker 3: New Mexico State, and then the next week they beat 141 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 3: Texas State. Well, since then, Nevada has lost to an 142 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 3: FCS team as well, So he can't make fun of 143 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,680 Speaker 3: coloraud of State too much because their opponent did it too. 144 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 3: And then they lost their other two games by margin 145 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:06,719 Speaker 3: is what they lost to Iowa by twenty seven. That 146 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:08,760 Speaker 3: would have been worse if that game hadn't been delayed 147 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,360 Speaker 3: for half a day because of US. Because of that 148 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:13,559 Speaker 3: lightning delay late at night, and when they finally started 149 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:15,640 Speaker 3: playing again like midnight, both teams just wanted to get 150 00:07:15,640 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 3: out of there. And then they lost the air Force 151 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,320 Speaker 3: last week by twenty eight. Air Force way down this year. 152 00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 3: So anyhow, I think on the field Colora States certainly 153 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 3: is going to be the more talented team. With the 154 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 3: guys that they have coming back. They know Nevada as 155 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 3: well as any singular college team could know another one 156 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:36,680 Speaker 3: in terms of the personnel on the coach and everything 157 00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 3: like that, and I think they match up here as well. 158 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 3: I expect Colora to State to get this win. 159 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 2: I think the most famous example of this ever was 160 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 2: when John Gruden left from Oakland and went to Tampa 161 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 2: Bay and then ended up playing the Raiders in the 162 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 2: Super Bowl. And John Lynch I remember at halftime saying 163 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 2: to one of his teammates, I have never seen a 164 00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 2: coach that was more prepared for a game in my 165 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 2: life because he, you know, uh, practice and coach that 166 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 2: team for five or six years, and then he goes 167 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 2: over to Tampa Bay and they end up playing that 168 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:09,760 Speaker 2: team in the Super Bowl. He knew every single weekness 169 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 2: that they had in Tampa Bay ends up dominating that game. 170 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 2: So if you're just looking for historical examples, there's way 171 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 2: more in college football. I'm just talking about the most 172 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 2: famous one that I can remember was that one. So 173 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 2: an interesting game for sure, And if you want to 174 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:27,239 Speaker 2: talk about ugly games, I won money on the FIU 175 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 2: New Mexico State under nights last week, so you know, 176 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 2: I went to go try to watch it on Flow 177 00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 2: Sports and I was like, I don't want to pay 178 00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:37,679 Speaker 2: one hundred fifty bucks to watch New Mexico State versus time. 179 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:42,199 Speaker 2: But you know, if they want me some more money, 180 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 2: maybe I'll be able to afford it. 181 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:45,280 Speaker 3: So we like, now we got we got FIU and 182 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 3: Yukon this week, so we got we got some trash balls. 183 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:49,720 Speaker 2: I don't even know where to go in that game 184 00:08:49,760 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 2: thor because that one's like, you know, fa FIU scored 185 00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 2: twenty one points, so they started to move the ball 186 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 2: a little bit. I don't like Yukon as a favorite though, 187 00:08:58,120 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 2: especially on the road. 188 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:01,720 Speaker 3: On the road, yeah, I would mean FIU in that game. 189 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 3: It's not one of my picks this week, but I 190 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:07,719 Speaker 3: Yukon's got a bunch of injuries too. Yeah, like if 191 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 3: I used probably it's either them or Hawaii if you're 192 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 3: talking about, like objectively, who's the worst team in the FBS. 193 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 3: But like you mentioned, FIU won their last sort of Yukon, 194 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 3: but you know whatever, but you know FIU did as well, 195 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 3: and again Yukon's roster way down. They just caught Fresno 196 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,080 Speaker 3: State in like an all time spot first game without Haner. 197 00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 3: The backup's not very good. And then Fresno was going 198 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 3: from California all the way out to the East coast 199 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,440 Speaker 3: in that one and they were able to ambush them. 200 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it was. 201 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 2: It was a good game for those that actually sat 202 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 2: through and watched it. Let's talk about the games that 203 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 2: have ninety five percent cash on one side, and I'll 204 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 2: just give you the spreads. I have I believe six 205 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:52,840 Speaker 2: spreads in three totals that have a ninety five percent 206 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 2: better of the public cash on one side. The first 207 00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 2: one is Buffalo minus two a bowling green. Ohio State 208 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:03,880 Speaker 2: minus twenty six and a half against Michigan State is 209 00:10:03,920 --> 00:10:06,839 Speaker 2: also on that one at ninety seven percent. Georgia State 210 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 2: minus two and a half at home against Georgia Southern, 211 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:14,080 Speaker 2: Tulsa minus six at Navy, Louisiana Tech minus three versus UTEP, 212 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 2: and UNC plus three and a half at Miami. 213 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 1: Because Miami has just been disappointing everybody recently. So when you. 214 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 2: Look at these games, store Buffalo, Ohio State, Georgia State, Tulsa, 215 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:30,640 Speaker 2: Louisiana Tech, North Carolina. Is there one that stands out 216 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,079 Speaker 2: here that you like? Is there one that you're saying, 217 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 2: What the hell is the public thinking about this? 218 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: What is it that sticks out to you here? 219 00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 3: Well? I looked into that Bowling Green Buffalo game quite 220 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 3: a bit. I was thinking about bets both on the 221 00:10:44,240 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 3: side and also on the over. So I handicapped that 222 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 3: one kind of hard. But every time I felt like 223 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 3: I had a beat on it, I would come across 224 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 3: a different piece of information that had me going the 225 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 3: other way, and I eventually just you know. 226 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 2: My whole thing with that game was I bet on 227 00:11:00,640 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 2: Minnesota last year and Bowling Green beat them at home, 228 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,360 Speaker 2: so that kind of I mean, you know that that's 229 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 2: a you know what, maybe I'll just leave Bowling Green 230 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 2: alone for the rest of my betting history here. I'm 231 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:15,680 Speaker 2: not gonna mess with them anymore, especially at home. So 232 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,440 Speaker 2: that was my thought process because I do like Buffalo 233 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 2: in that game, but I've been bit by Bowling Green 234 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 2: before nothing. 235 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, and that would have been the way that that 236 00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 3: I think I would have leaned as well. My my number, certainly, 237 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 3: my number on that game is actually Buffalo minus five 238 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,120 Speaker 3: point two. That was a part of the reason why 239 00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:37,360 Speaker 3: I handicapped it so hard. It was trying to see 240 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 3: you know, if if I was on the same line 241 00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 3: with with the Buffalo love. But like I said, there 242 00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 3: are certain things where it'll it'll point to them. One 243 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 3: of them is, uh, Buffalo is probably gonna win that game. 244 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:52,320 Speaker 3: Up front. I think you know that their defensive line 245 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,079 Speaker 3: is better than Bowling Green's offensive line, but they're not 246 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 3: gonna put a lot of pressure on the quarterback that 247 00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,520 Speaker 3: they don't get out to the quarterback very good. Bowling 248 00:11:59,559 --> 00:12:02,559 Speaker 3: Green can throw a little bit. I made fun of 249 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,839 Speaker 3: that Matt McDonald kid in the past, but like their offenses, 250 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:10,720 Speaker 3: their passing offense has gotten more decent and Buffalo's Buffalo's 251 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 3: pass defense is really really bad. So yeah, I mean, 252 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:16,719 Speaker 3: my numbers would say to bet on Buffalo, but I 253 00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 3: couldn't end up getting there because of some of these 254 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 3: different mostly because I'm afraid of their secondary against Bawling 255 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 3: Green's passing. So I'm just gonna end up staying away 256 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:28,560 Speaker 3: from that one. And then as far as the other ones, 257 00:12:31,200 --> 00:12:36,439 Speaker 3: the I'm not touching that Ohio State Michigan game line's. 258 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:38,960 Speaker 2: Too big, right, Like the line on that one is 259 00:12:39,040 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 2: just a little bit too big twenty six and a half. 260 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 2: Although Michigan State looks bad, Ohio State looks good. I 261 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 2: understand the reason why the majority of the money is 262 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 2: on Ohio State. 263 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:51,120 Speaker 1: I get it. 264 00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 2: I'm with you, though. You know, there was not a 265 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 2: ton that I loved this week. There's a lot that 266 00:12:57,080 --> 00:13:00,560 Speaker 2: I like. I like Ohio State, but I don't love him. 267 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 2: So that's kind of for me. With college, it's I 268 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:07,840 Speaker 2: gotta love, love, love to take a game. So yeah, 269 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 2: I'm not on that one either. All right, so we're 270 00:13:09,840 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 2: not on Ohio State. Do you like any of these 271 00:13:11,920 --> 00:13:14,880 Speaker 2: other four games? We've got Georgia State minus two and 272 00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:17,480 Speaker 2: a half, Tulso minus six, LA Tech minus three, or 273 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 2: UNC plus three and a half. 274 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 3: Yeah. I looked into both Georgia Southern and Louisiana Tech 275 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 3: Utah pretty deeply. You know, I've been thinking that Georgia 276 00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 3: Southern's punching a little bit above his weight class. You know, 277 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 3: when Clay Helton took over that triple option roster, I 278 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 3: thought they were gonna go like two and ten. Clay Hilton, 279 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 3: that guy that wasn't known for schematics at all, no 280 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:42,360 Speaker 3: more for spread offenses. Then he takes over this triple 281 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 3: option roster, and they've been playing awesome so far, you 282 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 3: wonder when they're gonna run out of steam. And then meanwhile, 283 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:52,880 Speaker 3: Georgia State is probably undervalued at this point because they've 284 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 3: been playing they haven't been playing up to what we 285 00:13:57,040 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 3: expected them to be coming into the season. So you know, 286 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 3: I was sort of coming into the week that this 287 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,080 Speaker 3: was one of the games that I looked into as 288 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 3: far as, like, you know, it might be a Cell 289 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:08,839 Speaker 3: High against a by Low kind of a thing, but 290 00:14:09,080 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 3: it was one where that it was another one of 291 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 3: those where every time I found a piece of information 292 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,080 Speaker 3: that would support a play in Georgia State, I found 293 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 3: another one that would support a play on Georgia Southern. 294 00:14:19,560 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 1: For me that I hate those games. 295 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 2: That was, like most of the games, it took me 296 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 2: forever to get my article done this week because because 297 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 2: it I mean, I'm like, okay, I feel good about 298 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 2: this one, and then exactly what you said, no thanks, 299 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:34,600 Speaker 2: I feel good about this one, dig a little deeper 300 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:35,240 Speaker 2: in no thanks. 301 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: So I had a couple of those this week as well. 302 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 3: Another one for me it was Louisiana Tech and UTEP. 303 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,160 Speaker 3: Louisiana Tech is absolutely going to be able to throw 304 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 3: on utub that that team does not cover receiver very well. 305 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 3: But on the other side of the ball, utup is 306 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 3: going to be able to grind out the four or 307 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 3: five yard runs sort of a will because Louisiana Tech's 308 00:14:56,720 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 3: their defensive front is their weakness. So it's it's I 309 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,440 Speaker 3: was I was sort of leaning towards Louisiana Tech heading 310 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 3: into that that handicap, but I think both those offense 311 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 3: are gonna be able to do what they want, so 312 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 3: I couldn't take that one as well. 313 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 2: Norday Ute quarterback leads the country in big time throws too, 314 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 2: according to PFF, so harder for that. Yeah, I think 315 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:18,960 Speaker 2: Artison does so, which is surprising. I was just looking 316 00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 2: up Emery Jones has like three big time throws but 317 00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 2: only five turnover worthy plays as well. It's weird like 318 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 2: Asus is not doing anything and I just saw Hardiston 319 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 2: was up at the top while I was looking for 320 00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 2: that stat early. 321 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 3: Okay, Yeah, I mean with with o Jacob Khan, they 322 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 3: gotta do something. They're passing. Attack is way down though, 323 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 3: I'd be curious to see what, you know, where what 324 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 3: those are getting toggled on. But they you know, either way, 325 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:46,320 Speaker 3: they don't have any playmakers there on the outside. The 326 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 3: the other one, the Tulsa Navy game. I don't have 327 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,360 Speaker 3: a good feel on either of those teams, especially because 328 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,400 Speaker 3: Navy started out the season so poorly coming off the 329 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 3: rule changes to all lot of the couple act, and 330 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 3: we've talked about that in the past how much that 331 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 3: hurt triple option teams came out and was awful to 332 00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:03,880 Speaker 3: start the season. They lost to Delaware, amongst others. But 333 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:06,240 Speaker 3: they've been playing better in recent weeks and maybe they've 334 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 3: figured it out. Tulis has been a little bit better 335 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 3: than I thought, in part because they got Keelon Stokes back, 336 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 3: who had missed all of last season. He was playing awesome. 337 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 3: And Davis Brin last week. I didn't know if he 338 00:16:18,320 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 3: was gonna play, he ended up playing. That's again, just 339 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 3: another team I can't get my finger on. I do 340 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,280 Speaker 3: have a bet on one of those, though it's not 341 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 3: on the side though the Miami and You went c game. 342 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 3: You were mentioning ninety six percent of the money's coming 343 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 3: in on UNC, eighty four percent of the tickets on Miami. 344 00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:39,640 Speaker 3: I'm not gonna bet on the side of that game 345 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 3: because I think mostly because I think the it's just 346 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,320 Speaker 3: gonna be it's gonna be a freaking shootout if the 347 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 3: weather doesn't totally Uh, just come in and become the 348 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 3: third team on the field, that shit. But you wouldn't 349 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 3: see scores against anyone. And they've scored thirty five points 350 00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 3: or more in all five of their games so far, 351 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 3: and then I'm not going to have a problem against Miami. 352 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,439 Speaker 2: This is because Miami lost to Middle Tennessee, isn't it. 353 00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,200 Speaker 2: I mean, you know we can well, you know you don't. 354 00:17:08,440 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 2: I think the public number, I think that's absolutely not 355 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:14,720 Speaker 2: anything you like. But yeah, I think the public number 356 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:16,879 Speaker 2: is because Miami looked bad against sexas A and m 357 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,520 Speaker 2: who has looked bad. Uh, they look bad against Southern 358 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 2: miss They straight up lost to Middle Tennessee. Like they're 359 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 2: still gaining a little bit of identity I feel like 360 00:17:24,760 --> 00:17:27,159 Speaker 2: in Miami, and it makes the public just completely off. 361 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 3: Of them two thousand percent. Yeah, And in terms of 362 00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:32,560 Speaker 3: the total getting back to that, I think, you know, 363 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 3: maybe the I mean, you know, you lost them t 364 00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 3: issue of course, But also there was the benching of 365 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:41,159 Speaker 3: Tyler van Dyke. There was initially a question whether they 366 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 3: were going to return to Tyler Van Dyke. You're going 367 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 3: to go with the car seea kid going forward, stuff 368 00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 3: like that. They are going to go with Vandyke. But people, 369 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:50,360 Speaker 3: people do not believe in the Miami offense right now, 370 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 3: and perhaps justifiably so. But the one thing that Miami 371 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 3: has done well so far, their offensive line is actually good. 372 00:17:56,359 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 3: It actually asks they're going to be. They're not going 373 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 3: to be. They will blow Unc off the ball on 374 00:18:02,119 --> 00:18:04,639 Speaker 3: him staying near every single play, and UNC is not 375 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 3: going to be putting any heat in Tyler Van Dyke's face. 376 00:18:08,080 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 3: Miami's also starting to figure out their receiving corps a 377 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 3: little bit more. Initially in the season, you know, they 378 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 3: started trying to work through it, and then Restrepo is 379 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:17,679 Speaker 3: a guy that Van Dyke liked, and Restreppo gets injured. 380 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 3: They weren't playing some guys like Lads and some other 381 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 3: guys lats and now it looks like maybe he'll get 382 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,120 Speaker 3: established going forward. I know that Miami will be able 383 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 3: to grind out the yards on the ground if nothing else, 384 00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 3: and I think that that should open up the shots 385 00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 3: for Tyler Van Dyke, who actually has a big time arm, 386 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 3: you know, so I think he's going to have success. 387 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 3: And then again, Miami's pass defense not very good. Miami 388 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 3: gives up a whole bunch of explosive plays plays right 389 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:45,000 Speaker 3: into the hands of the unc offense. The one caveat 390 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 3: I will give on this is and maybe this is 391 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 3: a reason why there hasn't been more money on the 392 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:53,879 Speaker 3: over is right now, the forecast for this game or 393 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:56,679 Speaker 3: cal HM for sixty miles per hour wins. Almost always 394 00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:00,080 Speaker 3: I stay away from games with wins that high in 395 00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 3: terms of going over. But my system in this game 396 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:06,440 Speaker 3: gave me an over under of eighty four and a 397 00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,959 Speaker 3: half points, which is dang near twenty points above what 398 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 3: the Vegas total is. I think I think it's that's 399 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 3: the biggest number I got this week, and it makes 400 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 3: a whole lot of sense when you start digging into 401 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,760 Speaker 3: the matchups on either side. Again, if the weather doesn't 402 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 3: get worse at sixteen, it's going to affect it a 403 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,239 Speaker 3: little bit, but not to that degree where you can 404 00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:31,800 Speaker 3: sort of justify a nineteen point discrepancy. I like the 405 00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 3: matchup for both offenses and expect it to go over. 406 00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:37,159 Speaker 2: Let me ask, just because we'll get to the totals 407 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 2: with all the cash right after this. I just want 408 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:42,640 Speaker 2: to know what your number is on UTSAWKU because if 409 00:19:42,680 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 2: that's not the highest, I would be a little surprised 410 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 2: because the over in that game, I believe is seventy 411 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 2: and a half or seventy. It's been kind of fluttering. 412 00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:53,040 Speaker 2: It's been flirting with that seventy line the whole week, 413 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 2: so I would be surprised that's not higher than Miami UNC. 414 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:00,080 Speaker 2: I mean, both those games are very high, of course. 415 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 3: It's not, but Bogman that that is. The other total 416 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 3: that I'm holding a ticket for right now is the 417 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:10,000 Speaker 3: so good call by you Western Kentucky UTSA. I think 418 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:14,560 Speaker 3: it was seventy one that I got my system's total. 419 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,199 Speaker 3: Dang close to eighty nine. Didn't quite get there, but 420 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,960 Speaker 3: seventy eight and a half. And that game is it's 421 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:22,359 Speaker 3: going to be an offensive bonanza. 422 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 2: I mean, I hope it goes into overtime and we 423 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 2: get one fifty like that would be amazing. 424 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 3: It actually cut Yeah, I mean, you're talking about two really, 425 00:20:29,560 --> 00:20:35,959 Speaker 3: really bad pass defenses. Utsa's defense has gotten objectionably awful 426 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 3: over the offseason. They were decent last year, but they're 427 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:43,480 Speaker 3: crazy down on defense. Their past defense is horrific. Western 428 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:45,320 Speaker 3: Kentucky's going to be able to do whatever they want 429 00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,720 Speaker 3: passing the ball, Utsa is going to be able to 430 00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:50,520 Speaker 3: as well. Utsa's running game is down because they lost 431 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 3: sincere McCormick, and there hasn't been one dude who like 432 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 3: steps up unless you want to count Frank Harris and 433 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,480 Speaker 3: the three receivers who have been absolutely awesome so far. 434 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,399 Speaker 2: Frank Kers leads the country in first downs. I mean 435 00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:04,120 Speaker 2: he does it passing and with his legs. 436 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 3: He's incredible, and just as a passer, I think he's 437 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 3: averaging three hundred and thirty five passing yards a game. 438 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:11,320 Speaker 3: And all three of those starting receivers, I'll tell you this, 439 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 3: they're all going to get a long look by the NFL. 440 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 3: They all three might hang around in the NFL. And 441 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 3: all of them are averaging either over one hundred yards 442 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 3: of game receiving or just under it. So like those 443 00:21:21,520 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 3: three kids are stuff. Western Kentucky ain't gonna be able 444 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,360 Speaker 3: to cover those guys across the formation. So this one 445 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 3: it's going to be pass pat pap half pass, and 446 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 3: I do expect it to go over for sure. 447 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 1: The totals that we have with over ninety five percent 448 00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:33,800 Speaker 1: of cash. 449 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,840 Speaker 2: Is only three this week, Kentucky versus South Carolina over 450 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 2: forty nine, Northern Illinois verus Toledo under fifty nine and 451 00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,480 Speaker 2: a half, and Bandy versus All miss under sixty one 452 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 2: and a half. I like that last one a lot, 453 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:49,199 Speaker 2: so much that I wrote it up in my article 454 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 2: this week. The other two I don't really have a 455 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 2: good feel for. Is there anything you like here out 456 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 2: of these three totals store. 457 00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:58,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, So the one that you're on that you like 458 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:04,479 Speaker 3: is Vandy and the under Yeah, yeah, my. 459 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,480 Speaker 2: Run first team's Uh, Vandy had an extra week to 460 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 2: prep for this game. Maybe that makes him a little 461 00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,959 Speaker 2: tougher in the first half. That's kind of how I 462 00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:15,040 Speaker 2: feel about this game, because just Jackson Dart has not 463 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 2: got uh, he has not got under control yet. He 464 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:23,400 Speaker 2: is still off, I would say, So, you know, even 465 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,880 Speaker 2: though Vandy puts no pressure, my my one fear is that, 466 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,919 Speaker 2: like you know, this is the old Western Kentucky game 467 00:22:29,960 --> 00:22:31,840 Speaker 2: from a couple weeks ago, where it's sixty six zip 468 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 2: something like that, you know against fy you right, Yeah, 469 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,159 Speaker 2: So that's my one fear in this game is that 470 00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:41,360 Speaker 2: it's completely lopsided. Mandy looks like crap again and ol 471 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,200 Speaker 2: Miss just rolls him. But being a run first team, 472 00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 2: both these teams being run first, Vandy getting the extra 473 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:48,919 Speaker 2: week makes me think there's gonna be a lot of 474 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,919 Speaker 2: bleeding the clock and running in this game. And uh, 475 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:55,919 Speaker 2: you know, I think it'll end as like a you know, uh, 476 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 2: forty nine fourteen, you know, something like that, or I 477 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,960 Speaker 2: mean forty to ten or something like that, you know, 478 00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:04,000 Speaker 2: just a lower scoring game. 479 00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 3: So yeah, and my, my, my system's total on that 480 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:11,120 Speaker 3: game is fifty six to your points. So system would 481 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:15,520 Speaker 3: definitely be leaning that way. The other two I'm not 482 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,720 Speaker 3: I'm not betting those games. The Kentucky South Carolina one 483 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:22,119 Speaker 3: is the most interesting to me because the market seems 484 00:23:22,119 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 3: to be getting behind South Carolina for the first time 485 00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 3: all season. That line has I think it, you know, 486 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 3: it's like eleven twelve for Kentucky to open and now 487 00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,359 Speaker 3: it's either at ten or even toggling down into the 488 00:23:34,400 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 3: single digits. So I mean people have gotten behind South 489 00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 3: Carolina a little bit. We'll have to see about Will 490 00:23:40,400 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 3: Levis how he plays in this game. South Carolina does 491 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 3: not have a very good defensive front, so I do 492 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 3: expect Chris Rodriguez, who returned last week and looked really 493 00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 3: good after he'd been suspended the first four games. You 494 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 3: never know a kick coming off of that, Like how 495 00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,239 Speaker 3: was he gonna look in his first game? But he 496 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,119 Speaker 3: was doing the same old thing of breaking tackles in 497 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 3: the first half. He looked like the vintage Chris Rodriguez. 498 00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 3: In the second half, you know, whether it's because you know, 499 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 3: Ole miss hits harder, almost is better on defense now. 500 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:06,879 Speaker 3: But like whether it's that or whether it was not 501 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 3: the rust but not being in the game condition, you 502 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,880 Speaker 3: know that, you know, coming off of that, that absence whatever, 503 00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 3: didn't play as well in the second half. But that's 504 00:24:16,520 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 3: gonna be something to watch for there. I have not 505 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 3: been impressed at all with Spencer Ratler this year. Every 506 00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,280 Speaker 3: time he plays a competent defense, he plays like crap. 507 00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 3: When he's played the bad defenses, he can do stuff. 508 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,360 Speaker 3: But Kentucky's gonna give him a bigger challenge in that regard. 509 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:31,639 Speaker 3: So it'll be an interesting game. 510 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, that one is gonna be a fun one for sure. 511 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 2: Let's go over to the top five games, the games 512 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 2: that everyone is going to be watching this week. We 513 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,800 Speaker 2: have a couple of good ones first off is number 514 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 2: one Alabama. There twenty four point home favorites against Texas. 515 00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,399 Speaker 2: A and M fifty one and a half is the over. 516 00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:50,800 Speaker 2: A lot of back and forth between Jimbo and Nick Saban. 517 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,000 Speaker 2: Of course, A and M was the first team in 518 00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:56,679 Speaker 2: one hundred tries that was unranked to beat Alabama last season, 519 00:24:56,800 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 2: So I don't know thor. I feel like Saban's gonna 520 00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 2: be out for blood. I'm just gonna take BAM in 521 00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,719 Speaker 2: this game. But I'm not actually putting anything on this 522 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 2: one because I don't know what we're getting from A 523 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 2: and M. On a week to week basis. They look great, 524 00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 2: they looked terrible. You know, they lost to ap State, 525 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:14,639 Speaker 2: they beat Miami. I just don't know what to expect 526 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,359 Speaker 2: from these guys. Bama we know is gonna be great 527 00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:20,520 Speaker 2: on defense. We're not sure about what's going on with 528 00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 2: Bryce Young quite yet. Uh So, I don't know this 529 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:24,480 Speaker 2: is to stay away from me? 530 00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:27,840 Speaker 3: How do you? How do you see it probably staying away? 531 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,160 Speaker 3: If my my leans on both the bets, it would 532 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,159 Speaker 3: be I would lean A and M plus the points 533 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,000 Speaker 3: and lean the under. But like I said, I don't 534 00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,520 Speaker 3: think I'm gonna bet them that this line is, this 535 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 3: is what you would expect a line to be if 536 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,560 Speaker 3: Bryce Young was healthy. So it's it's weird that like 537 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 3: Milroe is going to start, like Bryce Young is not 538 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,879 Speaker 3: going to start with the spring ac joint and his 539 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,840 Speaker 3: shoulder from last week because uh, same injury for instance, 540 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:58,200 Speaker 3: that Quinn you Weers had. Uh there are other guys 541 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,479 Speaker 3: that this year as well. I couldn't speak to one 542 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:02,159 Speaker 3: of them because I'm not supposed to say. But anyway, 543 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 3: that that's an injury that always keeps the quarterback out 544 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:06,439 Speaker 3: the next week. It just does. I don't care what 545 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,439 Speaker 3: Drew Brees said. He was telling Quinn Ears to go 546 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:10,520 Speaker 3: and get a shot in his shoulder, whatever, but what 547 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:14,720 Speaker 3: is come back out? But especially in college, one week 548 00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 3: after an ac joints brain, you're you're not gonna play. 549 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,920 Speaker 3: So we're gonna see Milrose. Uh. That kid is raw 550 00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 3: as a passer, I think is putting it kindly. But 551 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,600 Speaker 3: what he The advantage that he has over Young is 552 00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 3: he's crazy athletic. He that one run was absolutely insaneeah 553 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,760 Speaker 3: last week and he makes people miss. He has athleticism, 554 00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,320 Speaker 3: he has bursts. I think you're gonna see a lot 555 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,919 Speaker 3: more running by Alabama in this game. If you're Nick Saban, 556 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 3: why why would you have mill Rose putting the ball 557 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 3: up in the air against You know, you can say 558 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:49,920 Speaker 3: what you want about A and M, but A and 559 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 3: M's defense is really, really, really good. You do not 560 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:57,320 Speaker 3: want Milroe throwing into that defense when Alabama has We 561 00:26:57,560 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 3: talked about this in recent episodes, but Alabama's offensive line 562 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:02,720 Speaker 3: his way down comparison to the last few years. Their 563 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:05,760 Speaker 3: receiving corps is way down as well. You don't want 564 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,359 Speaker 3: a quarterback who right now you can't trust in the 565 00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,120 Speaker 3: pocket doing that, They're gonna go to the running game 566 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 3: a whole lot more so, so expect that you got 567 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,640 Speaker 3: the two backs, you got Milroe, who is gonna give 568 00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:18,920 Speaker 3: you more of the the mobile element that than Bryce 569 00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 3: Young did. And then on the A and M side, 570 00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 3: they want to do what they do. It's it's just 571 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:26,240 Speaker 3: you know that they're gonna run the ball and then 572 00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,400 Speaker 3: they're gonna meander back up to the line. They're gonna 573 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,399 Speaker 3: snap the ball with three seconds left. They're gonna do 574 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:32,920 Speaker 3: it again. It's good every game that they want to 575 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,400 Speaker 3: have the lesser possessions. And whereas I think Saban would 576 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:39,399 Speaker 3: have fought Jimbo on the game script and game flow. 577 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 3: With the healthy Bryce Young, Alabama would have been running more, uh, 578 00:27:43,720 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 3: running more up to the line. I should say, you know, 579 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 3: tempo in with with Milrae, I don't think that's gonna 580 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,520 Speaker 3: be his prerogative. You don't want to put that kid 581 00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,440 Speaker 3: into a stitture away from where he's rushing back to 582 00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 3: the line and in order to get the snap off first. 583 00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,000 Speaker 3: He's not completely set with Oh, I haven't completely read 584 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,439 Speaker 3: the defense. I don't completely know what everyone you know, 585 00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:05,680 Speaker 3: it's whatever who's even on the field because they love 586 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,480 Speaker 3: to this year, especially rotating the receiver stuff like that. 587 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 3: So I think you're gonna see them place lower as well. 588 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,720 Speaker 3: Definitely go more run. That's why I would lean the under. 589 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:16,120 Speaker 3: And again for me, this line is what you said. 590 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 3: If Bryce Young is healthy, you need to de duct 591 00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 3: points from Alabama with Melroe starting. So that's the reason 592 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:23,879 Speaker 3: I take A and M. But you know, also the 593 00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:25,880 Speaker 3: caveat of A and M hasn't looked that great, and. 594 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, that's also true. 595 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 2: The other four games I feel like are the biggest 596 00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 2: ones of this week are Number eight Tennessee at three 597 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,800 Speaker 2: point Road favorites at LSU, who's ranked number twenty five. 598 00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 2: Sixty four and a half is a total in that 599 00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 2: one Utah number eleven at number eighteen UCLA, Utah is 600 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 2: a three and a half point favorite. Sixty four and 601 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 2: a half is the total in that one. UCLA coming 602 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,280 Speaker 2: off that big win against Washington. Number sixteen BYU at 603 00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 2: Notre Dame. Notre Dame is unranked and three and a 604 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,760 Speaker 2: half point home favorites against BYU fifteen one and a 605 00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 2: half is the number there. And then number seventeen TCU 606 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 2: seven point road favorites at your number nineteen Kansas Jayhawks 607 00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 2: with a total of sixty eight and a half. I 608 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,760 Speaker 2: didn't even put my Red River rivalry in there because 609 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:11,480 Speaker 2: neither one of those teams are ranked or so. 610 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,040 Speaker 1: Do you have a good lean on any of these 611 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 1: other games? 612 00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 3: The yeah, Probably the strongest one would be to Notre Dame. 613 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:22,920 Speaker 3: My line on that game is like Notre Dame like 614 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 3: minus like eight point five something like that. I you know, 615 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 3: I think Notre Dame is clearly the better team in that. 616 00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 3: You know, of course, the offensive played down. You know, 617 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 3: you've got concerns about the offense, Buckner being out, and 618 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,280 Speaker 3: then and then Pines start and whatever. But we you know, 619 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,840 Speaker 3: they were playing UNC's defense. You got to give that 620 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:44,680 Speaker 3: caveat because UNCS defense is a SIV. But we see 621 00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:47,280 Speaker 3: Notre Dame at least start to figure things out, and 622 00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 3: really all they have to do is keep heat off 623 00:29:49,400 --> 00:29:52,000 Speaker 3: of Pine's face and get the freaking ball to Mayor 624 00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:55,560 Speaker 3: and then hopefully the running game is doing something, but 625 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,760 Speaker 3: like it's not. We're not talking rocket scientists as far 626 00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:01,520 Speaker 3: as the personnel, it's on the the Notre Dame side whatever. 627 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:04,360 Speaker 3: And then b Yu, I I got questions about BYU. 628 00:30:04,520 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 3: They've had, They've had, you know, key guys that have 629 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,240 Speaker 3: been in and out of the line. If the receiving 630 00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:12,040 Speaker 3: corps has specifically, you know, been been badly compromised. We've 631 00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,200 Speaker 3: already seen them sort of whether you want to say no, 632 00:30:14,280 --> 00:30:17,400 Speaker 3: show a Marquee game or just get their butts kicked 633 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 3: even when they with full ever you know, against Oregon 634 00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:22,080 Speaker 3: and stuff like that. I think Notre Dame could do 635 00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 3: things that give them a lot of problems. I don't 636 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,520 Speaker 3: know who on the BYU roster gonna be covering Mayor 637 00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,800 Speaker 3: for instance, just being one of them. So I think 638 00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,440 Speaker 3: that line is probably artificially suppressed just because people have 639 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:36,400 Speaker 3: in their mind the martial loss or you know, different 640 00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:40,600 Speaker 3: stuff like that. On the Notre Dame side, Yeah, Tennessee LSU, 641 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:44,320 Speaker 3: I I looked into it. I would me personally, I 642 00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:47,640 Speaker 3: would lean Tennessee my numbers leading LSU and I couldn't 643 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:51,200 Speaker 3: find enough supporting evidence on either side of it to break. 644 00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 1: Then tope of yea of a strong lead. 645 00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 3: So we're, yeah, we're staying away from that. Tennessee's run 646 00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,840 Speaker 3: defense can be had. But is Daniels on the other 647 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 3: side to see one hundred percent? Is he gonna be 648 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 3: frolicking around in the open field with the injury as 649 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:06,160 Speaker 3: if he even plays, you know, obviously nuss Meyer had 650 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 3: had to finish that that last one out. Tennessee should 651 00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,560 Speaker 3: be able to move the ball, okay, But yeah, well 652 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:14,320 Speaker 3: we'll see how that one goes. That hooker against that 653 00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:17,520 Speaker 3: that L s U secondary is the matchup to watch. 654 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 3: Tennessee's receiving course obviously very good you Utah and U 655 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,000 Speaker 3: c l A probably another stay away from me, although 656 00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:28,600 Speaker 3: I'm gonna keep handicapping that one because it's a it's 657 00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,800 Speaker 3: a really fascinating matchup. But U C l A obviously 658 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:34,719 Speaker 3: they got no respect from the market. Last week against 659 00:31:34,760 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 3: Washington ended up upsetting a team that had become everyone's dart. 660 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 3: Like everybody was holding a Washington ticket last week. 661 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 2: Michael Pennix look like the same guy that we thought 662 00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,560 Speaker 2: Indiana not this new we've been seeing. 663 00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:48,200 Speaker 1: So yeah, they were great. 664 00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:52,320 Speaker 3: So yeah, But on the other side of it, like I, 665 00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:55,280 Speaker 3: I really like Utah. I didn't jump out on Utah 666 00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 3: because they lost to Florida and ever since then they've 667 00:31:57,360 --> 00:32:00,160 Speaker 3: been who I expected them to be in Embogman, Like 668 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 3: we talked about after that very first one, had it 669 00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:06,440 Speaker 3: not been for Anthony Richardson making an impossible play and 670 00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,360 Speaker 3: then you know, and down the stretch and then that 671 00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:13,240 Speaker 3: the Passerer fance and what Yeah, that whole thing could 672 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 3: have gone the other way. But you know, again, Utah's 673 00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 3: bounced back, probably an informational game for me. And then 674 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:22,360 Speaker 3: to touch on the Kansas TCU one quick, I can't 675 00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:26,520 Speaker 3: touch the side of this one or give a recommendation. 676 00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 3: When when Thomas and I did our our Sunday show, 677 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 3: this line had opened at it's like TCU minus four 678 00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 3: or four and a half like some like d and 679 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,880 Speaker 3: on that show, I said, at that price, you can 680 00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 3: bet on TCU. Because my line was like TCU minus seven. Well, 681 00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 3: the market quickly batted it up to seven. So like, 682 00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,440 Speaker 3: I don't think there's any value to be had on 683 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 3: the side I do. I am considering one bet on 684 00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:55,720 Speaker 3: it though, which is although I'd be going against my 685 00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:57,280 Speaker 3: system if I do this, I. 686 00:32:57,920 --> 00:33:00,120 Speaker 2: Think, you know, sometimes you have a gut feeling that 687 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,440 Speaker 2: you have to roll with. I understand that for sure. 688 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 3: My system so it's the total Bogman, what is it 689 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,120 Speaker 3: live right now? It's in the mid sixties somewhere I. 690 00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:12,960 Speaker 1: Know, Yeah, it is, has moved up. 691 00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:17,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, So my my system total on that is seventy 692 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,200 Speaker 3: four and a half. But when I was handicapping that game, 693 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:23,760 Speaker 3: I was sort of like in the the under To 694 00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 3: be honest, these teams play there's a couple of different 695 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 3: reasons why. First of all, both these teams play slow. 696 00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,200 Speaker 3: I don't think maybe people realize that, but they're both 697 00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:37,760 Speaker 3: beneath a hundredth in adjusted tempo, so they let clock 698 00:33:37,840 --> 00:33:40,040 Speaker 3: tick off every single time, you know, they they run 699 00:33:40,040 --> 00:33:45,120 Speaker 3: an offensive play whatever. And then Kansas, like Kansas's defense 700 00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 3: has got I'm sorry, Kansas offense has gotten a lot 701 00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,600 Speaker 3: of the the ink because of Jalen Daniels and it's 702 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,920 Speaker 3: a great star and everything like that. The reason that 703 00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:57,360 Speaker 3: they're and justifiably so. But they've done some things on 704 00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 3: defense I think that are at least worth talking about. 705 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:04,280 Speaker 3: Number one is and the biggest thing is tackling efficiency. 706 00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 3: They don't miss tackles and they're excuse me, they don't 707 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:13,759 Speaker 3: miss tackles and they're never out of position, so it's 708 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,880 Speaker 3: hard to break the explosive plays off against them. Both 709 00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:20,200 Speaker 3: Kansas and TCU are in the top ten of the 710 00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:24,040 Speaker 3: nation in tackling efficiency. So you have two teams that run, 711 00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,759 Speaker 3: you know that that plays slow on offense. Both the 712 00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:31,120 Speaker 3: defenses tackled well, we'll have to see if Kansas is secondary, 713 00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:35,080 Speaker 3: which to this point has been opportunistic. But maybe they're 714 00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,520 Speaker 3: not the most talented unit in the nation. If they're 715 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:42,719 Speaker 3: able to stay with TCU's receivers in space, that that's 716 00:34:42,760 --> 00:34:46,080 Speaker 3: the big question there. The Kansas defensive backs have shown 717 00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:49,400 Speaker 3: a knack for ball skills, making plays on the ball, 718 00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,520 Speaker 3: but if and Max Dugan, as you know bagman, accuracy 719 00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:55,080 Speaker 3: and decision making has been a bugaboo of his. 720 00:34:55,400 --> 00:35:00,399 Speaker 1: But else, yeah, exactly, this year Max Dugan. 721 00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 3: They gave the job to somebody else, but then that dude, 722 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 3: Chandler Martin's got injured, you know, around halfway through that 723 00:35:06,600 --> 00:35:08,960 Speaker 3: that Colorado game. Ever since then, Dugan's come back in 724 00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:12,200 Speaker 3: and been a different quarterback. Depending on how he throws 725 00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:15,040 Speaker 3: the ball is gonna go a lot long way towards 726 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:19,600 Speaker 3: this whatever. But there there is that. I just the 727 00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:21,879 Speaker 3: way that I see it, I think it's gonna go under. 728 00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:23,440 Speaker 3: There's a lot of nerves on both sides too. 729 00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:27,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's rank. Yeah, I understand that. All right. 730 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:30,320 Speaker 2: So let's wrap it up with a couple of games 731 00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,680 Speaker 2: that you like thor Is there anything that you have, 732 00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,120 Speaker 2: you know, whether it's a total or spread that you 733 00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:39,520 Speaker 2: have a massive lean on that you were telling everybody 734 00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,880 Speaker 2: that you like this week and you are super into. 735 00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:43,520 Speaker 2: Is there anything there? 736 00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:48,759 Speaker 3: Yeah? One of the favorites I like is U A 737 00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:52,840 Speaker 3: B against Middle Tennessee State. Middle Tennessee State's still getting 738 00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,279 Speaker 3: some shine from upset in Miami. We talked a little 739 00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:59,280 Speaker 3: bit about that before, whereas UA B is is definitely 740 00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:03,560 Speaker 3: being downgrade the market for having gotten upset by by Rice. 741 00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:08,359 Speaker 3: But that was a flukey game. UAB finished that game 742 00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,960 Speaker 3: with a win expectancy of ninety two percent. 743 00:36:11,760 --> 00:36:15,040 Speaker 2: You know, bes, it's it's offense, right though. It's it's 744 00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:17,360 Speaker 2: that has been because they're great on defense, isn't it 745 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,960 Speaker 2: the offense that's kind of been wishy washy uh to 746 00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:23,399 Speaker 2: say the least for them for sure. 747 00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, up and down because the passing game, you 748 00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 3: wonder if you can rely on it, et cetera. But 749 00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:30,520 Speaker 3: one thing they can they can still grind out the 750 00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:32,919 Speaker 3: yardage on the ground. I think that's where they match 751 00:36:33,000 --> 00:36:35,600 Speaker 3: up really well against this Middle Tennan Middle Tennessee state. 752 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,799 Speaker 3: They're more they they they can't get the size, so 753 00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:41,880 Speaker 3: they defer to trying to get athleticism or shifting as 754 00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:43,560 Speaker 3: it's the same thing on their defense as it is 755 00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,640 Speaker 3: on their offense. You can push that team around up front. 756 00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,040 Speaker 3: So that's how I like UA B is not gonna 757 00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:52,799 Speaker 3: score a gazillion points, but I expect their offense to 758 00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,240 Speaker 3: be on schedule at the entire game because I expect 759 00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:59,000 Speaker 3: UA b's offensive line to dominate the defensive line of 760 00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:01,359 Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee. And then on the other side, and this 761 00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:06,000 Speaker 3: is probably the key of this handicap is Middle Tennessee Bogman. 762 00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,120 Speaker 3: As you know they can't run the ball at all. 763 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,360 Speaker 3: That when they're moving, when they're clicking on offense, it's 764 00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,319 Speaker 3: they have an air raid offense. Now they've steered even 765 00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:18,560 Speaker 3: further into that air raid pass first past first pass tacks. 766 00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:22,120 Speaker 2: The Miami all those huge passing plays those they had, 767 00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:24,279 Speaker 2: like a ninety eight yard touchdown is ridiculous. 768 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:28,400 Speaker 3: Exactly, it's the passing offense and it's hitting on explosive plays. Yeah, 769 00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,920 Speaker 3: those are two things that the UAB defense happens to 770 00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:34,680 Speaker 3: be elite at stopping. The uab's defense is in the 771 00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:38,000 Speaker 3: top ten sp plus in pass defense, and I believe 772 00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:41,719 Speaker 3: they are also top ten in preventing explosive plays for 773 00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:45,319 Speaker 3: the opposition. I think UAB matches up really well. I 774 00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:47,520 Speaker 3: think that the reason that the only reason that this 775 00:37:47,600 --> 00:37:49,560 Speaker 3: line is in the single my line on this game 776 00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:52,200 Speaker 3: is UAB minus thirteen. I think the only reason that 777 00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:54,440 Speaker 3: in the marketplace it's still in the single digits is 778 00:37:54,480 --> 00:37:59,200 Speaker 3: again circumstantial uab's loss, which on the field they actually 779 00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,560 Speaker 3: suddenly outplayed Rice and Flukey circumstances happened to cause them 780 00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:04,800 Speaker 3: to lose, and then MTSU is still getting the shine 781 00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,279 Speaker 3: from the Miami game. But we saw more what MTSHU was, 782 00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,520 Speaker 3: for instance last week when they lost to a one 783 00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:12,359 Speaker 3: dimensional UTSA team and the opener that got blown up 784 00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:16,640 Speaker 3: by James Madison. So like, I mean, it's you know, 785 00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:18,839 Speaker 3: you can't just only think about the Miami game and 786 00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,160 Speaker 3: forget about the other ones. Middle Tennessee is a very 787 00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:24,240 Speaker 3: matchup specific team. They happened to match up well against 788 00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:26,839 Speaker 3: Miami and that was the day where the dog had 789 00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,120 Speaker 3: its day for them. This game, they do not match 790 00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:32,000 Speaker 3: up well whatsoever against u A B. So I expect 791 00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:34,560 Speaker 3: you UA B to run away with it all right? 792 00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:37,520 Speaker 2: Anything else? Or is that it was that your favorite 793 00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:39,440 Speaker 2: one by kind of a wide margin. 794 00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:42,520 Speaker 3: There that that might be that that might be my 795 00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:46,160 Speaker 3: favorite bet of the week. Yeah, that's I mean, there's 796 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:48,200 Speaker 3: certainly other games that I'm on, but I feel like 797 00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:50,160 Speaker 3: that's a pretty good match. I also like those two 798 00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:54,719 Speaker 3: totals that we had talked about before, both those going 799 00:38:54,800 --> 00:38:58,560 Speaker 3: up Miami un C and Western Kentucky ut SA. I 800 00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:01,560 Speaker 3: expect both those to be offensive explosion games. But yeah, 801 00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:03,879 Speaker 3: I think UAB is going to control US one against 802 00:39:03,880 --> 00:39:06,279 Speaker 3: Middle Tennessee's. 803 00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:08,160 Speaker 2: Gonna be a lot of fun, another fun week of betting, 804 00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:11,960 Speaker 2: So Please check out all of our friends over here 805 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,200 Speaker 2: on Betting Pros and you can find myself at Bogman 806 00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:16,400 Speaker 2: Sports on the Twitter. 807 00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:17,640 Speaker 1: I have this show. 808 00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:20,080 Speaker 2: Of course, I have CPY Winning Edge with my buddies 809 00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,279 Speaker 2: Nick and Xavier as well, so check out out if 810 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:25,400 Speaker 2: you would and Thor at thor Ku on the Twitter. 811 00:39:25,560 --> 00:39:30,760 Speaker 2: Please tell everyone the the pod schedule and the article schedule. 812 00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:32,600 Speaker 2: What have you got coming out here at betting pros 813 00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:34,320 Speaker 2: for us tomorrow. 814 00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,120 Speaker 3: You can check out my best bets of the week 815 00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:39,520 Speaker 3: on Betting Pros. On Saturday, I do my hour nap 816 00:39:39,560 --> 00:39:44,439 Speaker 3: show with Mike Farrell starting at ten am Eastern Time, 817 00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:47,160 Speaker 3: and we go all the way up until eleven thirty 818 00:39:47,320 --> 00:39:50,160 Speaker 3: Eastern half an hour before the kickoffs, ninety minutes of 819 00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,640 Speaker 3: just running through every game or as many games as 820 00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:55,399 Speaker 3: we can get to sides totals props. We also take 821 00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:58,520 Speaker 3: audience questions, so please tune in live on that It's 822 00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:00,880 Speaker 3: even better to watch live because we we will literally 823 00:40:00,920 --> 00:40:02,880 Speaker 3: answer every question that we get in the room. I 824 00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,319 Speaker 3: promise you're out here listening. You put a question in 825 00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,600 Speaker 3: that's that's relevant to college football game on on Saturday, 826 00:40:07,760 --> 00:40:10,759 Speaker 3: we will answer it. So check that out and Yeah, 827 00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:12,120 Speaker 3: that's the rest of the week. 828 00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:14,680 Speaker 2: All right, gonna be a fun one. Hey, I'm looking 829 00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:18,240 Speaker 2: forward to a Texas and Oklahoma again. Texas finally favored 830 00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:20,759 Speaker 2: in that game for the first time a little bit, 831 00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:22,480 Speaker 2: so I'm excited for it. 832 00:40:22,520 --> 00:40:24,400 Speaker 3: We're all going, Gabriel don't play in that game. We 833 00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:25,480 Speaker 3: could have a blood bath. 834 00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:28,400 Speaker 2: Well let's hope, you know, fingers crossed. I want to 835 00:40:28,920 --> 00:40:29,879 Speaker 2: watch it either way. 836 00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:32,080 Speaker 3: You know, Gabriel get hit last week. I don't know 837 00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,239 Speaker 3: how he could play this week. But we'll see it. 838 00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:38,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you never know, so we'll see how 839 00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:39,879 Speaker 2: it plays out. But it's going to be a fun 840 00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,239 Speaker 2: one regardless. But I thank you all for listening and 841 00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:43,880 Speaker 2: we will catch you all next week. Take it easy, 842 00:40:43,880 --> 00:41:01,120 Speaker 2: everybody es