WEBVTT - Disney and Tyson Earnings, TikTok Latest

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>with Alex Steinhl and Paul'sweenye.

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<v Speaker 2>The real app performance has been in US corporate high yield.

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<v Speaker 3>Are the companies lean enough? Have they trimmed all the fats?

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<v Speaker 2>The semiconductor business is a really cyclical business.

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<v Speaker 1>Breaking market headlines and corporate news from across the globe.

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<v Speaker 3>Do investors like the M and A that we've seen?

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<v Speaker 4>These are two.

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<v Speaker 2>Big time blue chip companies.

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<v Speaker 3>The window between the peak and cut changing super fast.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence with Alex Steinhl and Paul'sweenye on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>On Today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big

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<v Speaker 2>business story some inm Pacnew Wall Street and the global markets.

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<v Speaker 3>Each and every week we provide in depth research and

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<v Speaker 3>data on some of the two thousand companies and one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred and thirty industries our analysts cover worldwide.

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<v Speaker 2>Today, we'll take a look at why there may be

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<v Speaker 2>prolonged legal battle over whether TikTok will be banned.

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<v Speaker 3>Plus we'll discuss how and why one company thinks most

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<v Speaker 3>banker bonuses will rise in twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 2>But first we dive into the world's largest media and

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<v Speaker 2>entertainment company Walt Disney.

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<v Speaker 3>The company reported second quarter earnings that surpassed analyst expectations,

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<v Speaker 3>but this was overshadowed by the company giving a week

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<v Speaker 3>outlook for streaming subscriber growth in the current quarter.

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<v Speaker 2>For more, guest host Tim Stenovick and I were joined

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<v Speaker 2>by Githa Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts on the US media space.

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<v Speaker 2>We first asked Getha for some of her key takeaways

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<v Speaker 2>from Disney's results.

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<v Speaker 5>What the street didn't like was the outlook. The outlook

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<v Speaker 5>for the fiscal third quarter, especially for the theme park business,

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<v Speaker 5>was definitely weak and not something that the street was expecting.

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<v Speaker 5>So consensus had a twelve percent growth in operating income

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<v Speaker 5>for the park's business. What Disney said zero growth. Wow,

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<v Speaker 5>And that kind of really spooked investors. And they talked

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<v Speaker 5>about different aspects here. They said that they have, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>three new cruise ships that are basically coming on board,

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<v Speaker 5>and you know there are launch costs associated with that.

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<v Speaker 5>They're also opening this new kind of private island along

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<v Speaker 5>with their vacation club and cruise business. Of course that also,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, is contributing to that. But I think what

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<v Speaker 5>really has investors super nervous. Is that they spoke about

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<v Speaker 5>a moderation in demand, and this has been a constant,

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<v Speaker 5>constant question for Disney. You know, can that park's momentum

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<v Speaker 5>sustain and how long can it sustain? And will they

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<v Speaker 5>have pricing power? And I think people are not so

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<v Speaker 5>confident anymore.

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<v Speaker 6>Is the moderation of demand about Disney's lack of exciting

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<v Speaker 6>things to draw in people to the parks, to draw

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<v Speaker 6>people to the theaters, or is it about a story

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<v Speaker 6>that has to do with the consumer and the way

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<v Speaker 6>that the consumer feels strapped.

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<v Speaker 5>I think it's a little bit of everything. Tim So,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, definitely the consumer, the overall health of the

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<v Speaker 5>economy and the consumer for certain and you know, tremendous

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<v Speaker 5>inflationary pressures. But of course for Disney, you know, one

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<v Speaker 5>thing that they've done over over the past few years

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<v Speaker 5>is they've really raised prices in their parks pretty dramatically,

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<v Speaker 5>and it's becoming increasingly increasingly expensive for you know, affect

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<v Speaker 5>family vacations, so to the point of almost becoming prohibitive.

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<v Speaker 5>And you know, that's where kind of that whole pricing

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<v Speaker 5>power question comes in. I think they're going to have

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<v Speaker 5>to do it much more cautiously and gently in the future.

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<v Speaker 6>Paul talking to some neighbors the other day who recently

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<v Speaker 6>took their kids to Disney. Yep, they were adding up

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<v Speaker 6>how much it costs for just a couple of days

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<v Speaker 6>down there. They were saying, probably about five grand is

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<v Speaker 6>what they spent in Florida. Wow, two kids a few

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<v Speaker 6>days down there.

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<v Speaker 2>Wow, it's a lot of money. I just called I

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<v Speaker 2>just called Githa. She makes a phone call and I'm

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<v Speaker 2>like the front of the line every time. Eithan. The

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<v Speaker 2>other part of this story, And for the longest time,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the last four or five years, has been

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<v Speaker 2>their streaming business and when will that business term profitable?

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<v Speaker 2>They had some pretty good news on that front, didn't they.

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<v Speaker 7>They did, Paul.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, we're just on the cusp of a major,

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<v Speaker 5>major earning inflection point here for the first time ever

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<v Speaker 5>in the in the streaming business's history, they actually posted

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<v Speaker 5>them all this profit now again, they said fiscal third quarter,

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<v Speaker 5>which is the next quarter, is going to be a

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<v Speaker 5>little bit choppy. But then what they've said all along

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<v Speaker 5>is that expect some some really good results in the

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<v Speaker 5>fiscal fourth quarter, and then they're really going to build

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<v Speaker 5>on that starting in you know, fiscal twenty twenty five

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<v Speaker 5>and beyond. They have a lot of initiatives in the works.

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<v Speaker 5>You know, they're cracking down on password sharing a la Netflix,

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<v Speaker 5>and remember that has been a huge growth story at Netflix.

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<v Speaker 5>The Netflix aded almost thirty five million subscribers after they

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<v Speaker 5>started cracking down on password sharing, So Disney can also

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<v Speaker 5>hope to see quite a lot of success with that.

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<v Speaker 5>And then of course they also have the Hulu integration

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<v Speaker 5>as well as you know, the ad tier, all of

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<v Speaker 5>that kind of contributing. So streaming, I think is going

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<v Speaker 5>to be a considerable source of earnings upside in the

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<v Speaker 5>next few years.

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<v Speaker 6>How's Bob Ayger doing?

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<v Speaker 2>Does he have an ex successor?

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<v Speaker 5>He spoke about that actually on the call that that

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<v Speaker 5>came up, and he said that they're, you know, they're

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<v Speaker 5>kind of actively considering. They have four internal candidates, the

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<v Speaker 5>all of the division chiefs, the chiefs that are kind

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<v Speaker 5>of up for consideration, and you know, he said that

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<v Speaker 5>they're looking at them very carefully and the announcement will

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<v Speaker 5>come when the time is right.

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<v Speaker 6>Is this any replay of what happened a few years

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<v Speaker 6>ago when Jpek took over? I mean It kind of

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<v Speaker 6>sounds familiar. A number of internal candidates, the person gets picked,

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<v Speaker 6>the other one's leave, and then Bob Ager comes back

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<v Speaker 6>because it didn't work out.

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<v Speaker 8>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean we've seen this movie play out so many

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<v Speaker 5>times now at Disney. I hope and I think this

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<v Speaker 5>time it really will be different. I mean, that was

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<v Speaker 5>the whole bone of contention, you know, for the activist investors,

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<v Speaker 5>including Nelson Pals and I think having this new succession

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<v Speaker 5>planning committee suggests that this time they will do things

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<v Speaker 5>probably a little bit differently.

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<v Speaker 2>What did the companies say about their ability to potentially

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<v Speaker 2>deal with maybe weaker demand. It's been a long time

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<v Speaker 2>since we've seen them ever cut prices at the theme parks, promote,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, at the theme parks, anything that would hurt profitability.

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<v Speaker 2>It's been a long time since they've had to do that.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, the theme park business has been such

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<v Speaker 5>a consistent story for them, Paul, as you just pointed out,

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<v Speaker 5>they have twenty five percent operating margin in that business,

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<v Speaker 5>and they are really looking at this as a future

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<v Speaker 5>earnings growth driver, which is why you know they're investing

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<v Speaker 5>sixty billion dollars in the theme parks over the next

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<v Speaker 5>ten years. Over half of that is basically just adding capacity,

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<v Speaker 5>adding new attractions, and I think it's it's a really

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<v Speaker 5>timely and a good strategic move. They're also bringing on

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<v Speaker 5>those cruise ships that that's going to cost them about

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<v Speaker 5>twelve to fifteen billion dollars, so you know, they're definitely

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<v Speaker 5>adding capacity. So I think, you know, overall, definitely the

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<v Speaker 5>business is in good shape, but in the near term, obviously,

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<v Speaker 5>the sentiment has definitely soured.

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<v Speaker 2>Our Thanks to Geitha rang Andath and Bloomberg Intelligence analysts

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<v Speaker 2>on US.

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<v Speaker 3>Media, we move next to the chip maker Intel. This week,

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<v Speaker 3>the company said it now expect second quarter revenue to

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<v Speaker 3>fall below the midpoint of previously issued projections.

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<v Speaker 2>This comes as a result of the US revoking licenses

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<v Speaker 2>allowing Huawei Technologies to buy semi conductors from Qualcomm and Intel.

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<v Speaker 2>The move is aimed at preventing China from developing advanced

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<v Speaker 2>artificial intelligence.

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<v Speaker 3>For more on all of this, we were joined by

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<v Speaker 3>Michael Sheppard, Bloomberg News senior editor. We asked him first

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<v Speaker 3>to walk us through the revenue pain that Intel will

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<v Speaker 3>see from this.

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<v Speaker 9>For Intel, the company is under some pressure to produce

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<v Speaker 9>on the turnaround that Pat Gelsinger has outlined to try

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<v Speaker 9>to get the company back into the vanguard of manufacturing,

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<v Speaker 9>but here in the US in particular, So analysts are

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<v Speaker 9>out there looking for any sign of potential trouble for

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<v Speaker 9>Intel as it tries to execute this plan. And here,

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<v Speaker 9>even though we're not seeing a significant market for Intel

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<v Speaker 9>with Huahwei, nonetheless any sign of trouble is something that

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<v Speaker 9>they have to take into account.

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<v Speaker 2>So, you know, for I guess the bigger picture here

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<v Speaker 2>as you step back, it just feels like this technology

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<v Speaker 2>cold war between China and the West, China and the US,

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<v Speaker 2>it seems to we're just intensifying. Is that the feeling

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<v Speaker 2>in Washington is that where Washington really wants to take this.

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<v Speaker 9>But Paul, I'm glad you brought it up that way

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<v Speaker 9>in those terms, because we really are seeing much more

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<v Speaker 9>of a frost when it comes to technology. Settling in

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<v Speaker 9>the US has been making clear. We heard Commerce Secretary

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<v Speaker 9>Gina Raymunder just a few weeks ago say technological security

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<v Speaker 9>is national security, and they are drawing a line when

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<v Speaker 9>it comes to the more sophisticated and more advanced technology,

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<v Speaker 9>especially when it comes to computer chips. The US is

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<v Speaker 9>a leading innovator, if not a leading producer, of some

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<v Speaker 9>of the most advanced and tiniest semiconductors that are out

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<v Speaker 9>there powering technology everywhere. And one of the emerging fronts is,

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<v Speaker 9>of course, artificial intelligence. And we spoke to House Foreign

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<v Speaker 9>Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCall, who's been pushing for these

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<v Speaker 9>Quawei restrictions, and he said, the idea of the export

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<v Speaker 9>controls that we reported on yesterday was to keep the

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<v Speaker 9>most advanced AI tech out of China's hands.

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<v Speaker 3>What about tech that's already in their hands that then

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<v Speaker 3>China can adapt themselves. Wasn't there like a Huawei phone

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<v Speaker 3>that really scratched everyone's head on like what kind of

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<v Speaker 3>chips they actually used? I mean, how do you restrict

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<v Speaker 3>that kind of stuff?

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<v Speaker 9>Well, the US is actually investigating what happened with the

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<v Speaker 9>May ninety. This device was unveiled as Gina Raimondo was

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<v Speaker 9>visiting China and it was taken as a you know,

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<v Speaker 9>something that was aimed directly at her during her visit

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<v Speaker 9>to say that, look, you're trying to put these restrictions

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<v Speaker 9>in place, we will show you.

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<v Speaker 2>Now.

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<v Speaker 9>The US has launched an investigation into how Huawei was

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<v Speaker 9>able to develop it, and whether there are other companies

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<v Speaker 9>that are forming this shadow network of suppliers to Huawei,

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<v Speaker 9>in other words, creating proxies that allow the device maker

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<v Speaker 9>to obtain the chips that it otherwise can't.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's the response been from China? What can we

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<v Speaker 2>It's just gonna be a tit for tat type of thing.

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<v Speaker 2>So I'm Tim Cook, I'm paying attention here.

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<v Speaker 9>Well, American technology executives should be watching this space. China responded,

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<v Speaker 9>calling the moves economic coercion and a violation of what

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<v Speaker 9>it sees as World Trade Organization rules, and they may

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<v Speaker 9>very well decide to proceed with the case. At the

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<v Speaker 9>same time, the US is trying to draw a line

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<v Speaker 9>around the whole question of national security, and that is

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<v Speaker 9>going to be something that we see as a tension

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<v Speaker 9>point between the two countries. The US is made clear

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<v Speaker 9>that it wants to do business with China, but just

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<v Speaker 9>not that far. It is only willing to go so

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<v Speaker 9>far when it comes to trade in more advanced technologies.

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<v Speaker 9>It wants to preserve the American edge here at home.

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<v Speaker 3>How hard is it for Intel to make up that

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<v Speaker 3>revenue elsewhere?

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<v Speaker 9>You know, it's a good question It's unclear exactly how

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<v Speaker 9>much they would be losing here. It was only a

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<v Speaker 9>slight drop. If you read between the lines on it.

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<v Speaker 9>You know they're now seeing something more to the midpoint

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<v Speaker 9>of their guidance, but it is still within the revenue

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<v Speaker 9>that they projected between twelve and a half billion and

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<v Speaker 9>thirteen and a half billion.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, Michael, we've all grown up with Intel, and

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<v Speaker 2>you know kind of I guess we now consider kind

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<v Speaker 2>of the older generation of Silicon Valley of technology. It

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<v Speaker 2>appears that they just have not been able to catch

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<v Speaker 2>that AI wave, at least from investors perspective, in any way,

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<v Speaker 2>shape or form. Is there any optimism that maybe they

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<v Speaker 2>can infect pivot their company to go to where the

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<v Speaker 2>puck is going, which is for AI.

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<v Speaker 9>Well, Paul, we all remember the Intel inside jingle from

0:11:34.800 --> 0:11:37.680
<v Speaker 9>those ads years ago, and that is something that Pat

0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:42.240
<v Speaker 9>Gelsinger is really trying to recapture, and he is seizing

0:11:42.360 --> 0:11:47.559
<v Speaker 9>upon the Biden Administration's Chips Act all those investments. We're

0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:52.040
<v Speaker 9>seeing the company launch plants in Arizona and in Ohio.

0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:55.720
<v Speaker 9>We just profiled the construction of this new facility in

0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:59.640
<v Speaker 9>Ohio was really impressive. Look inside what they are trying

0:11:59.640 --> 0:12:02.400
<v Speaker 9>to build there. It's ambitious, but it will take some

0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:06.440
<v Speaker 9>time too. These plants can't be built overnight, and it

0:12:06.480 --> 0:12:08.480
<v Speaker 9>is a race against the clock when it comes to AI.

0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.679
<v Speaker 2>Our thanks to Michael Sheppard, Bloomberg News Senior editor.

0:12:11.920 --> 0:12:14.559
<v Speaker 3>Coming up, we'll break down Apple's online launch event from

0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:16.120
<v Speaker 3>this week's dubbed let Loose.

0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:19.520
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing indepth

0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:21.760
<v Speaker 2>research and data on two thousand companies and one hundred

0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:24.559
<v Speaker 2>and thirty industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via b

0:12:24.679 --> 0:12:25.600
<v Speaker 2>I go on the terminal.

0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:28.640
<v Speaker 3>I'm Paul Sweetey an Alex Steele, and this is Bloomberg.

0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:36.439
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

0:12:36.520 --> 0:12:39.160
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Play and

0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:42.240
<v Speaker 1>Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand

0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:46.600
<v Speaker 1>wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:49.800
<v Speaker 3>We moved now to big tech and Apple. Apple had

0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.520
<v Speaker 3>its online launch event Tuesday dud let Loose, and the

0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.719
<v Speaker 3>company unveiled a new artificial intelligence focused iPad pro and

0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:56.760
<v Speaker 3>larger iPad Air.

0:12:57.200 --> 0:12:59.440
<v Speaker 2>The goal is to reinvigorate a tablet lineup that has

0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:01.000
<v Speaker 2>languished the past two years.

0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:01.439
<v Speaker 10>For more.

0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:04.040
<v Speaker 2>Guest host Tim Stenevick and I were joined by Man Deep,

0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:08.000
<v Speaker 2>saying Bloomberg Intelligence senior technology analyst. We first asked man

0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:10.920
<v Speaker 2>Deep about how important the new iPads are to Apple.

0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:14.800
<v Speaker 4>iPad line is about a high single digit contributor to

0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:19.240
<v Speaker 4>their overall revenue, so not as big as the iPhone,

0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:22.840
<v Speaker 4>of course, but clearly you know they are trying to

0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:23.600
<v Speaker 4>put their.

0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:26.160
<v Speaker 10>Latest chip in the iPad.

0:13:26.640 --> 0:13:32.079
<v Speaker 4>They showcase a new keyboard for the iPad and there

0:13:32.120 --> 0:13:36.240
<v Speaker 4>were other battery announcements new all at display. So all

0:13:36.280 --> 0:13:39.520
<v Speaker 4>these are cool, but fundamentally you have to ask yourself,

0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:43.679
<v Speaker 4>is it, you know, worth to upgrade to a new

0:13:43.720 --> 0:13:46.840
<v Speaker 4>iPad with all these incremental features as I would like

0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:50.679
<v Speaker 4>to call And that's where I think the market is

0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:53.760
<v Speaker 4>anticipating more along the lines of what can you show

0:13:53.800 --> 0:13:57.760
<v Speaker 4>me in terms of AI and the wow factor around LMS?

0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:01.040
<v Speaker 10>And I think that's what was messing at the event.

0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:03.439
<v Speaker 6>Well what could they show? I mean, when we talk

0:14:03.480 --> 0:14:07.520
<v Speaker 6>about AI and Apple, what are we thinking about? Because

0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.400
<v Speaker 6>Mark German says that this is an AI focused pro model,

0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:15.560
<v Speaker 6>So I'm wondering, apart from the chip, what about it

0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:16.800
<v Speaker 6>is AI.

0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:20.720
<v Speaker 4>It's at the app level, so that's why that operating

0:14:20.760 --> 0:14:21.920
<v Speaker 4>system upgrade.

0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:24.120
<v Speaker 10>And they did talk about the iOS eighteen.

0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:28.640
<v Speaker 4>Look right now, the current version of my iPad, which

0:14:28.680 --> 0:14:32.160
<v Speaker 4>is five generations behind what they launch, can run the

0:14:32.200 --> 0:14:35.880
<v Speaker 4>latest version of the iOS operating system. So why do

0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:38.160
<v Speaker 4>I need to upgrade? They have to give me a

0:14:38.200 --> 0:14:42.040
<v Speaker 4>reason to upgrade to the latest iPad because my current

0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:45.240
<v Speaker 4>version can't run the operating system and it's got some

0:14:45.360 --> 0:14:46.200
<v Speaker 4>cool apps.

0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:48.880
<v Speaker 10>That is what was missing, Like what.

0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:52.800
<v Speaker 4>Functionality can you show me around Siri, around image editing,

0:14:52.920 --> 0:14:56.320
<v Speaker 4>around summaries, like all the cool stuff that we talk

0:14:56.400 --> 0:15:00.280
<v Speaker 4>about from Nvidia at the data center level. That's what

0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:03.400
<v Speaker 4>a small kind of version of it is what you

0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:06.360
<v Speaker 4>want to run on device instead of going to the cloud.

0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:09.600
<v Speaker 10>And that's what they got a showcase in terms of

0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:11.640
<v Speaker 10>why you need to upgrade to the latest hardware.

0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:15.960
<v Speaker 6>Okay, so Paul, this is not our first rodeo. You

0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:18.640
<v Speaker 6>and I have anchored before, and one thing that's different

0:15:19.560 --> 0:15:22.160
<v Speaker 6>than versus a few years ago. When I would walk

0:15:22.160 --> 0:15:24.360
<v Speaker 6>in here, you would have an iPad next to you.

0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:24.720
<v Speaker 1>Yep.

0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 6>And the iPad you told me was like a really

0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:29.520
<v Speaker 6>big part of how you prepared for the show, use

0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:32.160
<v Speaker 6>the Boomberg terminal on the iPad. You also have the

0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:35.320
<v Speaker 6>two screens for the terminal. You have no iPad anymore? Nope,

0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:35.720
<v Speaker 6>why not?

0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:39.000
<v Speaker 2>I still have the iPad, although it's probably the original version,

0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:40.200
<v Speaker 2>but now everything's on the phone.

0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:42.840
<v Speaker 6>So your phone has replaced your iPad absolutely.

0:15:42.920 --> 0:15:46.240
<v Speaker 2>And I have a very long train ride every day,

0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:50.200
<v Speaker 2>which I need a very engaging device, and your.

0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:52.160
<v Speaker 6>Phone is that it's not the iPad. So, man, deep,

0:15:52.200 --> 0:15:53.680
<v Speaker 6>how big of a problem is that for Apple?

0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:57.600
<v Speaker 4>I mean, look in their case some of their newer

0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:00.640
<v Speaker 4>products to cannibalize. You know, if the eye pad is

0:16:00.800 --> 0:16:03.640
<v Speaker 4>very good, it's going to cannibalize the Mac sales. And

0:16:03.680 --> 0:16:06.360
<v Speaker 4>if the iPhone is very good, it's going to cannibalize

0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:07.640
<v Speaker 4>the iPad sales.

0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:09.560
<v Speaker 10>So that's always been the case.

0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:12.600
<v Speaker 4>But it's still a very sticky operating system, and you know,

0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:17.400
<v Speaker 4>just ecosystem overall. The only problem that I think people

0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:20.200
<v Speaker 4>are trying to grapple with here is what is the

0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:23.880
<v Speaker 4>refresh cycle? Because right now, the refresh cycle continues to

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:25.000
<v Speaker 4>get longer and longer.

0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:26.440
<v Speaker 10>It's not as if, you know, people.

0:16:26.240 --> 0:16:29.440
<v Speaker 4>Are moving out of the ecosystem, but they're not gaining

0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:33.360
<v Speaker 4>more Android users because they don't have the best looking

0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:37.360
<v Speaker 4>phones or the best features that Android phones can offer,

0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:39.880
<v Speaker 4>and so that is the part that is hurting their

0:16:39.920 --> 0:16:43.360
<v Speaker 4>refresh rate and also the share gain from Android users.

0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:45.520
<v Speaker 2>Is there a chance in your June developer meeting that

0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:46.800
<v Speaker 2>they're going to come out with something that's going to

0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:49.040
<v Speaker 2>blow the street away or expectations low?

0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:53.320
<v Speaker 4>I mean, I'm expecting more emphasis on the software side

0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:57.360
<v Speaker 4>in that developer meeting, and clearly they need to showcase

0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:01.800
<v Speaker 4>what they are doing around the LM's trap, whether an

0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:05.200
<v Speaker 4>LL and large anguid model will be part of their OS,

0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:09.840
<v Speaker 4>and then how it influences the overall app ecosystem because

0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:11.960
<v Speaker 4>that those are the features. If you look at the

0:17:12.119 --> 0:17:15.920
<v Speaker 4>latest Pixel phone, they offer you a lot of those

0:17:15.960 --> 0:17:20.400
<v Speaker 4>features already on Android, and that's what the Android ecosystem

0:17:20.440 --> 0:17:22.479
<v Speaker 4>is looking to leverage more and more. Off look at

0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:26.000
<v Speaker 4>the latest Samsung phones, they are targeting a lot of

0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:29.600
<v Speaker 4>those JNAI features and Apple is really playing catch up

0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:31.800
<v Speaker 4>over there, and they need to showcase that at.

0:17:31.680 --> 0:17:35.960
<v Speaker 10>The WWDC when they have all the developers over there.

0:17:36.119 --> 0:17:37.879
<v Speaker 6>Meande, this is something you think about a lot. So

0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:40.399
<v Speaker 6>lay out the ultimate vision for us. What does Apple

0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:43.239
<v Speaker 6>want its devices to be able to do for us

0:17:43.240 --> 0:17:45.800
<v Speaker 6>from an AI perspective, like how is it going to

0:17:46.200 --> 0:17:47.920
<v Speaker 6>interact with me using AI?

0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:52.760
<v Speaker 4>I mean, the biggest kind of UI upgrade they can

0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:55.919
<v Speaker 4>offer is around this sery. You know the fact that

0:17:56.119 --> 0:17:59.720
<v Speaker 4>Siri is so underutilized right now as a voice assistant.

0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:03.560
<v Speaker 4>If it has the right set of JENNYI features, clearly

0:18:03.720 --> 0:18:06.160
<v Speaker 4>that will have a big influence and how we interact

0:18:06.240 --> 0:18:09.040
<v Speaker 4>with the next version offer of the phones they make.

0:18:09.440 --> 0:18:12.840
<v Speaker 4>And also you know some of the utility inside the app,

0:18:13.280 --> 0:18:17.399
<v Speaker 4>like you don't have to you know, kind of touch

0:18:17.520 --> 0:18:22.119
<v Speaker 4>everything or do everything manually in terms of giving instructions.

0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:25.720
<v Speaker 4>There is this concept of AI agents that has to

0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:28.760
<v Speaker 4>be front and center in the next version of software

0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:32.359
<v Speaker 4>that Apple offers within their operating system, so that AI

0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:37.119
<v Speaker 4>agent can automate a lot of the tasks, not fully,

0:18:37.280 --> 0:18:39.960
<v Speaker 4>but pieces of it. And you want to see Apple

0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:41.240
<v Speaker 4>making progress.

0:18:40.840 --> 0:18:43.600
<v Speaker 2>On that front thanks to Man Deep Seeing Bloomberg Intelligence

0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:45.080
<v Speaker 2>Senior Technology Analyst.

0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:47.159
<v Speaker 3>You move now to social media and there may be

0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:49.560
<v Speaker 3>a prolonged legal battle now on the horizon involving the

0:18:49.600 --> 0:18:51.280
<v Speaker 3>popular video sharing app TikTok.

0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:54.080
<v Speaker 2>TikTok is owned by China based Byte Dance, this week,

0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:56.720
<v Speaker 2>the company filed a legal challenge to a measure signed

0:18:56.720 --> 0:18:59.520
<v Speaker 2>by President Biden last month. That measure with ban TikTok

0:18:59.560 --> 0:19:03.000
<v Speaker 2>in the US, if ByteDance hasn't divested from the app

0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:04.919
<v Speaker 2>by January nineteenth.

0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:07.800
<v Speaker 3>The potential ban is meant to address national security concerns

0:19:07.800 --> 0:19:10.520
<v Speaker 3>that the Chinese government could access user data or influence

0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:12.200
<v Speaker 3>what's scene on the TikTok platform.

0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:15.320
<v Speaker 2>For more, we were joined by Matthew Schuttenhelm, Bloomberg Intelligence

0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:18.679
<v Speaker 2>media litigation analysts. We first asked for his take on

0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:19.560
<v Speaker 2>this week's news.

0:19:19.960 --> 0:19:23.040
<v Speaker 11>This is the first Amendment lawsuit that we expected TikTok

0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:28.520
<v Speaker 11>to bring, basically saying that Congress's action violates its First

0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:33.680
<v Speaker 11>Amendment rights, that it, like any other platform, think about

0:19:33.720 --> 0:19:37.240
<v Speaker 11>the New York Times or any other media outlet. If

0:19:37.320 --> 0:19:42.199
<v Speaker 11>Congress were to effectively ban it, that it violates the

0:19:42.200 --> 0:19:46.280
<v Speaker 11>First Amendment to do so unless Congress can pass a

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:49.600
<v Speaker 11>pretty tough test. And so I think this is a

0:19:49.600 --> 0:19:53.800
<v Speaker 11>pretty substantial First Amendment case because we've rarely seen Congress

0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:58.280
<v Speaker 11>take such drastic action with respect to such a major

0:19:58.359 --> 0:19:59.240
<v Speaker 11>media platform.

0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:03.400
<v Speaker 2>We hired Matt He was just a kid's got gray hair.

0:20:04.480 --> 0:20:07.800
<v Speaker 2>I know, I don't know what happened exactly as a

0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:11.240
<v Speaker 2>grizzled veteran there, Matt, I know it's important which court

0:20:11.320 --> 0:20:13.040
<v Speaker 2>these things go to. So tell us where you think

0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:16.080
<v Speaker 2>this case will be litigated initially and kind of how

0:20:16.119 --> 0:20:16.640
<v Speaker 2>that might play.

0:20:16.760 --> 0:20:19.640
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, So this one's pretty easy to figure that out

0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:24.359
<v Speaker 11>because Congress limited where the companies can sue, and they

0:20:24.400 --> 0:20:27.920
<v Speaker 11>said any suit can only be filed at the DC

0:20:28.119 --> 0:20:31.960
<v Speaker 11>Circuit here here in Washington, which is sometimes referred to

0:20:32.040 --> 0:20:35.520
<v Speaker 11>as the second most important court in the United States,

0:20:35.560 --> 0:20:37.440
<v Speaker 11>below the US Supreme Court. This is a court that

0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:42.560
<v Speaker 11>takes most of its cases actually involved challenges to US

0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:48.320
<v Speaker 11>government action, usually agencies the alphabet soup of agencies.

0:20:47.720 --> 0:20:50.520
<v Speaker 2>The FCC, the FAA, the E p A.

0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:55.360
<v Speaker 11>But here it's Congress actually taking the action. So this

0:20:55.480 --> 0:21:00.160
<v Speaker 11>is a pretty experienced court. This won't allow a single

0:21:00.280 --> 0:21:02.120
<v Speaker 11>judge to go out and sort of make a name

0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:05.480
<v Speaker 11>for himself with an opinion. This will be a three

0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:09.880
<v Speaker 11>judge panel of very experienced judges, and then the only

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:12.520
<v Speaker 11>appeal option would be to the Supreme Court after that.

0:21:13.240 --> 0:21:16.439
<v Speaker 3>Does it violate the First Amendment free speech rights?

0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:22.200
<v Speaker 11>So I think it's it's a strong argument that TikTok presents.

0:21:22.240 --> 0:21:26.560
<v Speaker 11>This is not an easy case on either side. What

0:21:26.760 --> 0:21:29.479
<v Speaker 11>the court is going to look at is whether there

0:21:29.560 --> 0:21:32.960
<v Speaker 11>is an important interest that Congress was trying to serve

0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:37.200
<v Speaker 11>and whether it tried to address that interest in an

0:21:37.240 --> 0:21:41.440
<v Speaker 11>appropriate and narrow way. Did it burden more speech than

0:21:41.520 --> 0:21:44.879
<v Speaker 11>is necessary to go after the interest? And one of

0:21:44.960 --> 0:21:47.440
<v Speaker 11>the things that the government has going for it here

0:21:47.640 --> 0:21:51.080
<v Speaker 11>is that this is a national security question. I think

0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:53.600
<v Speaker 11>if this were just an agency trying to do this,

0:21:54.200 --> 0:21:57.000
<v Speaker 11>I think that the DC Circuit would would have issues

0:21:57.040 --> 0:21:59.720
<v Speaker 11>with the state of the record here and require it

0:21:59.760 --> 0:22:03.119
<v Speaker 11>to do There's very little evidence in the legislative record

0:22:03.160 --> 0:22:07.639
<v Speaker 11>about what exactly is the risk and what exactly why

0:22:07.840 --> 0:22:11.359
<v Speaker 11>Congress needed to pursue this avenue versus another avenue. If

0:22:11.400 --> 0:22:13.879
<v Speaker 11>an agency did this, a court would would have issues

0:22:13.920 --> 0:22:17.280
<v Speaker 11>with it. But this is Congress. This is our biggest

0:22:17.520 --> 0:22:21.520
<v Speaker 11>policymaking body, and it's on national security, something these judges

0:22:21.680 --> 0:22:24.040
<v Speaker 11>really know nothing about, and they're going to be be

0:22:24.400 --> 0:22:27.440
<v Speaker 11>very careful about interfering. So at the end of the day,

0:22:27.840 --> 0:22:30.920
<v Speaker 11>it's a close call, but I give the United States

0:22:30.960 --> 0:22:34.720
<v Speaker 11>a slight edge because of that deference on national security

0:22:34.800 --> 0:22:37.280
<v Speaker 11>questions where judges just aren't expert.

0:22:38.000 --> 0:22:42.520
<v Speaker 2>So let's just assume that maybe this DC District rules

0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:46.280
<v Speaker 2>in favor of Congress. TikTok presumably would then take it

0:22:46.359 --> 0:22:48.479
<v Speaker 2>to the Supreme Court. Do you think the Supreme Court

0:22:48.920 --> 0:22:49.960
<v Speaker 2>would hear such a case?

0:22:50.560 --> 0:22:53.840
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, so every Supreme Court case is discretionary. They could

0:22:53.880 --> 0:22:57.840
<v Speaker 11>say no. You know, I think more likely if the

0:22:57.920 --> 0:23:01.200
<v Speaker 11>scenario were flipped, I think think the Supreme Court would

0:23:01.200 --> 0:23:04.240
<v Speaker 11>take it that. If the d C Circuit rules initially

0:23:04.440 --> 0:23:08.879
<v Speaker 11>in TikTok's favor, I think the United States would almost

0:23:08.920 --> 0:23:12.159
<v Speaker 11>certainly get a second chance at the Supreme Court. And

0:23:12.160 --> 0:23:14.159
<v Speaker 11>that's one of the reasons why I like the United

0:23:14.160 --> 0:23:17.399
<v Speaker 11>States chances here is that I see even if it

0:23:17.440 --> 0:23:20.040
<v Speaker 11>doesn't go well for the United States at the d

0:23:20.160 --> 0:23:23.320
<v Speaker 11>C Circuit, I think it might go better at the

0:23:23.359 --> 0:23:24.680
<v Speaker 11>Supreme Court. It gets two.

0:23:24.520 --> 0:23:25.600
<v Speaker 2>Shots at it.

0:23:25.720 --> 0:23:28.560
<v Speaker 11>If the d C Circuit rules for the United States,

0:23:28.600 --> 0:23:30.399
<v Speaker 11>I could see the Supreme Court saying, you know what,

0:23:30.880 --> 0:23:32.560
<v Speaker 11>the d C Circuit got it right, we don't need

0:23:32.600 --> 0:23:34.800
<v Speaker 11>to take it up and say the same thing. So

0:23:35.640 --> 0:23:37.840
<v Speaker 11>it's definitely going to be on the Supreme Court's radar,

0:23:37.920 --> 0:23:40.120
<v Speaker 11>assuming the timing fits, that's going to be the first

0:23:40.240 --> 0:23:42.560
<v Speaker 11>question is how do you squeeze all this in on

0:23:42.680 --> 0:23:46.920
<v Speaker 11>Congress's timeline by January nineteenth, we're supposed to have a divestiture.

0:23:47.480 --> 0:23:49.600
<v Speaker 11>The courts usually take much longer than that.

0:23:50.080 --> 0:23:52.959
<v Speaker 2>Who argues this case on benf of the US government?

0:23:53.480 --> 0:23:56.760
<v Speaker 11>I would think it's pretty high level attorneys in the

0:23:56.920 --> 0:24:00.960
<v Speaker 11>Attorney's General Office, potentially the Solicitor General of the United

0:24:01.000 --> 0:24:04.040
<v Speaker 11>States if this goes to the US Supreme Court. This

0:24:04.200 --> 0:24:08.119
<v Speaker 11>suit named Merrick Garland, the Attorney General, as the defendant,

0:24:08.240 --> 0:24:11.520
<v Speaker 11>so I would think he would name one of his

0:24:12.200 --> 0:24:15.560
<v Speaker 11>top attorneys to represent him and the United States in

0:24:15.560 --> 0:24:16.040
<v Speaker 11>this case.

0:24:16.560 --> 0:24:20.320
<v Speaker 2>Our thanks to Matthew Shuttenhelm, Bloomberg Intelligence media litigation analyst.

0:24:20.440 --> 0:24:21.960
<v Speaker 3>Coming up in the program, we'll look at how and

0:24:22.000 --> 0:24:25.240
<v Speaker 3>why one company thinks most banker bonuses will rise in

0:24:25.320 --> 0:24:26.120
<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty four.

0:24:26.359 --> 0:24:29.760
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing into

0:24:29.840 --> 0:24:32.120
<v Speaker 2>research and data on two thousand companies and one hundred

0:24:32.160 --> 0:24:34.840
<v Speaker 2>and thirty industries. You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via b

0:24:34.960 --> 0:24:36.880
<v Speaker 2>I go on the terminal. I'm Paul Sweeney and.

0:24:36.880 --> 0:24:38.879
<v Speaker 3>Am Alex Steele, and this is Bloomberg.

0:24:43.560 --> 0:24:47.440
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

0:24:47.480 --> 0:24:51.000
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android

0:24:51.040 --> 0:24:54.200
<v Speaker 1>Otto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also listen live

0:24:54.320 --> 0:24:57.480
<v Speaker 1>on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just

0:24:57.560 --> 0:25:00.000
<v Speaker 1>Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:25:00.840 --> 0:25:04.760
<v Speaker 3>We move now to banks and this week the financial

0:25:04.760 --> 0:25:08.520
<v Speaker 3>services compensation from Johnson Associates predicted the bonuses on Wall

0:25:08.560 --> 0:25:11.000
<v Speaker 3>Street would rebound this year, and the company said this

0:25:11.040 --> 0:25:14.000
<v Speaker 3>applies mostly to desks that help companies tap markets or

0:25:14.000 --> 0:25:14.880
<v Speaker 3>trade their bonds.

0:25:15.240 --> 0:25:16.760
<v Speaker 2>For more on all of this, I was joined by

0:25:16.760 --> 0:25:20.800
<v Speaker 2>Alison Williams, Bloomberg Intelligence senior analysts Global banks and asset managers.

0:25:21.080 --> 0:25:23.720
<v Speaker 2>I first asked, Allison, isn't May too early to be

0:25:23.760 --> 0:25:24.720
<v Speaker 2>talking about bonuses?

0:25:25.000 --> 0:25:29.600
<v Speaker 8>I think so, Although the appetite for any incremental knowledge

0:25:29.760 --> 0:25:34.080
<v Speaker 8>about compensation is insatiable, we just, you know, we've really

0:25:34.160 --> 0:25:36.720
<v Speaker 8>just gotten sort of the look back at last year.

0:25:36.880 --> 0:25:40.399
<v Speaker 8>We've had the first quarter of results. But you know,

0:25:40.480 --> 0:25:43.320
<v Speaker 8>to your point, you know, it's a long way out.

0:25:43.440 --> 0:25:45.800
<v Speaker 8>And I would say if you look at some of

0:25:45.840 --> 0:25:49.560
<v Speaker 8>the estimates, I mean, some things seem sort of reasonable, right,

0:25:49.640 --> 0:25:54.200
<v Speaker 8>So wealth and asset management, you know, the global markets

0:25:54.200 --> 0:25:57.679
<v Speaker 8>are close to record highs. Certain markets are you know,

0:25:57.760 --> 0:26:01.600
<v Speaker 8>hitting highs and obvious, so their strength all around.

0:26:01.800 --> 0:26:03.400
<v Speaker 2>But we are in early.

0:26:03.520 --> 0:26:07.680
<v Speaker 8>May, but we look at some numbers, so the story

0:26:07.720 --> 0:26:11.760
<v Speaker 8>I think, as you said, most bullish seemingly on bond

0:26:11.800 --> 0:26:17.679
<v Speaker 8>trading revenues, and it's tough for us to see. You know,

0:26:17.760 --> 0:26:20.560
<v Speaker 8>certainly it's possible to get a huge increase in fixed

0:26:20.560 --> 0:26:23.840
<v Speaker 8>income trading, but fixed income trading has been doing well

0:26:24.000 --> 0:26:26.600
<v Speaker 8>the last few years, and we do think that business

0:26:26.640 --> 0:26:30.280
<v Speaker 8>is resilient. But when we say resilient, we say, you know,

0:26:30.359 --> 0:26:34.480
<v Speaker 8>about in the range of last year. Similarly, equities again

0:26:34.640 --> 0:26:37.960
<v Speaker 8>about in the range. I mean where we think things

0:26:38.000 --> 0:26:41.960
<v Speaker 8>are going to be much better than last year is that,

0:26:42.240 --> 0:26:46.040
<v Speaker 8>you know, debt underwriting, equity underwriting. I mean, those are

0:26:46.040 --> 0:26:49.199
<v Speaker 8>the businesses really strong in this quarter. But keep in

0:26:49.200 --> 0:26:52.600
<v Speaker 8>mind they're coming off of a very low base. So

0:26:53.240 --> 0:26:57.760
<v Speaker 8>you know, twenty twenty one was just an incredibly strong year.

0:26:58.760 --> 0:27:03.920
<v Speaker 8>We've had really two really bad years, and compensation has

0:27:03.960 --> 0:27:08.320
<v Speaker 8>not really gone down to reflect that. It's gone down,

0:27:08.359 --> 0:27:11.280
<v Speaker 8>but not as much as you would think, just because

0:27:11.920 --> 0:27:13.760
<v Speaker 8>there was such a scramble in twenty twenty one for

0:27:13.880 --> 0:27:16.840
<v Speaker 8>talent of the banks that we talked to you know,

0:27:16.880 --> 0:27:19.760
<v Speaker 8>are cognizant of that, and they don't want to they

0:27:19.760 --> 0:27:21.520
<v Speaker 8>don't want to go back to that. And we did

0:27:21.560 --> 0:27:24.480
<v Speaker 8>hear a lot of encouraging things about the pipelines. As

0:27:24.520 --> 0:27:27.919
<v Speaker 8>I said, one Q strength, so you know, out of

0:27:27.960 --> 0:27:30.800
<v Speaker 8>all the numbers, maybe that is the most optimistic. But

0:27:30.920 --> 0:27:32.040
<v Speaker 8>we are early in the year.

0:27:32.240 --> 0:27:35.160
<v Speaker 2>Hey Elison, on a typical bond desk or equity desk,

0:27:35.200 --> 0:27:37.639
<v Speaker 2>how much principal risk of any do they take? Do

0:27:37.720 --> 0:27:40.480
<v Speaker 2>their traders get to take positions or is most of

0:27:40.520 --> 0:27:43.600
<v Speaker 2>the commissions that they report just kind of you know,

0:27:43.680 --> 0:27:45.400
<v Speaker 2>agency trading on behalf of their clients.

0:27:45.920 --> 0:27:48.720
<v Speaker 8>So it's it's always a big mystery from the outside

0:27:49.480 --> 0:27:53.320
<v Speaker 8>in terms of, you know, the types of risks and

0:27:54.520 --> 0:27:57.880
<v Speaker 8>traders and banks will say since the global financial crisis

0:27:57.880 --> 0:28:00.800
<v Speaker 8>that it's really hard to define and separate. I would

0:28:00.840 --> 0:28:05.240
<v Speaker 8>say that certainly the proprietary trading that really fueled a

0:28:05.280 --> 0:28:07.800
<v Speaker 8>lot of the banks around the time of the global

0:28:07.840 --> 0:28:12.480
<v Speaker 8>financial crisis as certainly something that the regulators have attempted

0:28:12.520 --> 0:28:16.440
<v Speaker 8>to scale back, and you can see in different business

0:28:16.520 --> 0:28:20.520
<v Speaker 8>models those that really do focus on the flows. I

0:28:20.560 --> 0:28:23.119
<v Speaker 8>would also note that there are certain businesses that are

0:28:23.200 --> 0:28:27.320
<v Speaker 8>really much more geared towards flows. So if we look

0:28:27.359 --> 0:28:31.800
<v Speaker 8>at something like currency trading, very high turnover, high flow

0:28:31.880 --> 0:28:36.239
<v Speaker 8>business versus something like asset back trading where it is

0:28:36.320 --> 0:28:38.960
<v Speaker 8>much more specialized and you are using the balad sheet.

0:28:39.640 --> 0:28:42.200
<v Speaker 2>So for a typical trader out there these days, do

0:28:42.240 --> 0:28:44.160
<v Speaker 2>we have a sense of what percentage of their compensation

0:28:44.360 --> 0:28:48.120
<v Speaker 2>is really variable kind of year end bonus versus fixed salary.

0:28:48.200 --> 0:28:51.120
<v Speaker 2>Like when I was on the street many years, in

0:28:51.160 --> 0:28:53.880
<v Speaker 2>my total compensation, ninety percent of that would be bonus.

0:28:54.240 --> 0:28:56.640
<v Speaker 2>And I understand it's changed a little bit as they've

0:28:56.680 --> 0:28:59.440
<v Speaker 2>kind of try to increase the percentage of base salary,

0:29:00.000 --> 0:29:01.160
<v Speaker 2>so it has changed.

0:29:01.160 --> 0:29:03.440
<v Speaker 8>I mean, that was sort of one of the interesting

0:29:04.080 --> 0:29:08.680
<v Speaker 8>developments and perhaps unintended consequences that as we moved out

0:29:08.720 --> 0:29:12.840
<v Speaker 8>of the financial crisis, regulators really wanted to limit that

0:29:12.920 --> 0:29:16.360
<v Speaker 8>portion that was a bonus, and what ended up happening

0:29:16.520 --> 0:29:21.240
<v Speaker 8>was salaries ended up going up. So to your point,

0:29:21.400 --> 0:29:24.840
<v Speaker 8>back in the day before the global financial crisis, you know,

0:29:24.920 --> 0:29:29.480
<v Speaker 8>you could see salaries roughly equivalent across the board, but

0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:32.800
<v Speaker 8>for someone on the lower end, their bonus was, you know,

0:29:32.920 --> 0:29:35.720
<v Speaker 8>a fraction of their salary, whereas for someone on the

0:29:35.760 --> 0:29:39.880
<v Speaker 8>higher end, their salary was a fraction of their total

0:29:40.080 --> 0:29:44.240
<v Speaker 8>comp and so actually what that did for investment banks

0:29:44.760 --> 0:29:49.320
<v Speaker 8>was really increased the volatility of the headcount, especially towards

0:29:49.360 --> 0:29:54.080
<v Speaker 8>your end, because if it was a bad year, investment banks,

0:29:54.280 --> 0:29:57.480
<v Speaker 8>you know, could cut people, and since the majority of

0:29:57.520 --> 0:30:01.520
<v Speaker 8>the payout was the bonus, it really kept that sort

0:30:01.520 --> 0:30:07.400
<v Speaker 8>of higher correlation costs with revenues. But since then, because

0:30:07.760 --> 0:30:10.600
<v Speaker 8>banks have tried to even that at a little bit,

0:30:11.080 --> 0:30:15.240
<v Speaker 8>and certainly it is still a sizeable portion I think

0:30:15.360 --> 0:30:18.840
<v Speaker 8>for the higher end, as I said, not as skewed

0:30:18.880 --> 0:30:22.520
<v Speaker 8>as in the past, but certainly still can be skewed.

0:30:22.720 --> 0:30:25.200
<v Speaker 8>And I think I sort of grown into that over time,

0:30:25.360 --> 0:30:28.520
<v Speaker 8>just because as I said, it can be so variable

0:30:29.240 --> 0:30:32.480
<v Speaker 8>and so at least you know, if it is a

0:30:32.480 --> 0:30:36.200
<v Speaker 8>bad year, there is some kind of floor that people

0:30:36.240 --> 0:30:39.240
<v Speaker 8>can count on. But as we discussed, people reading these

0:30:39.240 --> 0:30:42.800
<v Speaker 8>stories still thinking about the year and comp it really

0:30:43.400 --> 0:30:46.600
<v Speaker 8>is something that is variable with the revenue. So to

0:30:46.640 --> 0:30:50.800
<v Speaker 8>the extent that bonuses are looking good, the underlying thought

0:30:50.840 --> 0:30:53.000
<v Speaker 8>would be that you are pretty bullish on the revenue

0:30:53.000 --> 0:30:53.680
<v Speaker 8>for these banks.

0:30:54.160 --> 0:30:57.160
<v Speaker 3>Thanks to Alison Williams, Boombrig Intelligence senior analysts for global

0:30:57.160 --> 0:30:58.320
<v Speaker 3>banks and asset managers.

0:30:58.640 --> 0:31:01.640
<v Speaker 2>We turned out to the largest US meat supplier, Tyson Foods.

0:31:01.720 --> 0:31:04.240
<v Speaker 3>This week, the company reported second quarter results that beat

0:31:04.240 --> 0:31:08.440
<v Speaker 3>analyst expectations. Tyson also raised its adjusted operating profit outlook,

0:31:08.480 --> 0:31:11.480
<v Speaker 3>citing improved performance of its chicken business, but this was

0:31:11.560 --> 0:31:14.600
<v Speaker 3>way overshadowed by the company's CEO, Donnie King, saying that

0:31:14.640 --> 0:31:17.240
<v Speaker 3>Tyson is quote not immune to the macro environment.

0:31:17.480 --> 0:31:20.360
<v Speaker 2>For more guestos, Tim Stenovic and I were joined by

0:31:20.520 --> 0:31:25.080
<v Speaker 2>Jennifer Bartasha's Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Retail, staples and packaged Foods.

0:31:25.160 --> 0:31:27.760
<v Speaker 2>We first asked Jennifer for her key takeaways from the

0:31:27.800 --> 0:31:28.640
<v Speaker 2>company's earnings.

0:31:29.080 --> 0:31:31.520
<v Speaker 7>By all accounts, they had a pretty decent quarter. They

0:31:31.520 --> 0:31:33.920
<v Speaker 7>did raise their full year outlook for adjusted operating income

0:31:34.600 --> 0:31:37.760
<v Speaker 7>off of strengthen the chicken segment, which has been long awaited.

0:31:38.440 --> 0:31:41.720
<v Speaker 7>But they may see third quarter be weaker than fourth quarter,

0:31:41.960 --> 0:31:44.920
<v Speaker 7>which would buck historical trends. And so a little bit

0:31:44.920 --> 0:31:47.440
<v Speaker 7>of a mixed report coming out of Tyson's. But generally

0:31:47.520 --> 0:31:48.480
<v Speaker 7>a pretty solid quarter.

0:31:48.760 --> 0:31:52.320
<v Speaker 6>Is the current quarter usually strong because we're getting into summer.

0:31:52.400 --> 0:31:55.120
<v Speaker 6>We got Memorial Day coming up. We buy the meat

0:31:55.120 --> 0:31:58.280
<v Speaker 6>for the barbecue. I mean why is it typically stronger?

0:31:59.280 --> 0:32:03.360
<v Speaker 7>So only stronger for meats like you like your chicken,

0:32:03.440 --> 0:32:08.080
<v Speaker 7>or you're in historically for beef specifically because a grilling season.

0:32:08.120 --> 0:32:11.880
<v Speaker 7>But that does translate into a weakness for prepared foods

0:32:11.920 --> 0:32:15.680
<v Speaker 7>and for the pork segment generally. And so they're saying

0:32:15.720 --> 0:32:18.880
<v Speaker 7>that the weakness in prepared foods and pork may outweigh

0:32:19.320 --> 0:32:22.160
<v Speaker 7>the strength coming for the grilling season for chicken and

0:32:22.240 --> 0:32:22.920
<v Speaker 7>for beef.

0:32:23.120 --> 0:32:27.040
<v Speaker 2>All right, I'm looking at the PGeo function for Tyson

0:32:27.080 --> 0:32:30.440
<v Speaker 2>Food TSN. Is the ticker percentage of revenue thirty seven

0:32:30.480 --> 0:32:34.560
<v Speaker 2>percent beef, thirty three percent chicken, nineteen percent prepared foods

0:32:34.600 --> 0:32:38.320
<v Speaker 2>and nine percent pork. Which business do you like? Which

0:32:38.360 --> 0:32:40.840
<v Speaker 2>business does the street like? Is one better than the other?

0:32:40.880 --> 0:32:43.040
<v Speaker 2>Better margins, better growth? How do we think about that?

0:32:43.960 --> 0:32:47.280
<v Speaker 7>So, historically speaking, prepared foods is a much higher margin

0:32:47.680 --> 0:32:50.400
<v Speaker 7>business within the company, and there were intents from Tyson

0:32:50.440 --> 0:32:53.840
<v Speaker 7>to grow that considerably. That has great long term potential,

0:32:54.440 --> 0:32:56.840
<v Speaker 7>but they are going through a little bit of short

0:32:56.920 --> 0:33:01.200
<v Speaker 7>term turbulence with regards to additional startup costs associated with

0:33:01.320 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 7>new plant lines and things like that. The chicken segment,

0:33:04.440 --> 0:33:07.280
<v Speaker 7>which is a big part of the company's business has

0:33:07.320 --> 0:33:10.800
<v Speaker 7>been underperforming for years, and so what's encouraging coming out

0:33:10.840 --> 0:33:14.800
<v Speaker 7>of earnings is that the chicken segment is finally showing improvement.

0:33:15.400 --> 0:33:18.520
<v Speaker 7>Margins are up, they're doing better with efficiencies, and even

0:33:18.520 --> 0:33:22.840
<v Speaker 7>though overall volume is down, it's a much healthier margin

0:33:22.880 --> 0:33:25.720
<v Speaker 7>that they're achieving out of that chicken business. Now, remember

0:33:25.760 --> 0:33:29.360
<v Speaker 7>they've closed a bunch of plants recently, they've been resizing

0:33:29.400 --> 0:33:33.160
<v Speaker 7>their processing footprint, so all the things that they need

0:33:33.200 --> 0:33:35.120
<v Speaker 7>to do seem to be underway to help make that

0:33:35.200 --> 0:33:38.480
<v Speaker 7>a much more profitable and bigger contributor to the overall company.

0:33:38.640 --> 0:33:42.040
<v Speaker 6>We had kind of an interesting conversation about Tyson Foods

0:33:42.160 --> 0:33:44.640
<v Speaker 6>and we all were all talking, well, we don't necessarily

0:33:44.680 --> 0:33:48.520
<v Speaker 6>know necessarily the brand of whatever we're buying when we're

0:33:48.560 --> 0:33:51.240
<v Speaker 6>in the store, and Tyson has much more than just

0:33:51.320 --> 0:33:56.840
<v Speaker 6>Tyson Foods. Is this at its core a commodity company?

0:33:57.240 --> 0:34:01.600
<v Speaker 6>Or do the brands Sarah le ballpark hillshar Arm, Jimmy Dean, Tyson,

0:34:02.160 --> 0:34:05.959
<v Speaker 6>Bossco's Gallo Salami do these matter to consumers?

0:34:07.080 --> 0:34:10.360
<v Speaker 7>The brands do matter, and it depends on which consumer

0:34:10.400 --> 0:34:14.560
<v Speaker 7>demographic you're talking about. But Tyson has intentionally over the

0:34:14.600 --> 0:34:17.280
<v Speaker 7>past several years, moved away from being a strictly commodity

0:34:17.320 --> 0:34:20.640
<v Speaker 7>driven company. That has helped smooth out earnings volatility. That

0:34:20.680 --> 0:34:24.880
<v Speaker 7>helps make it a much healthier margin profile overall, and

0:34:25.000 --> 0:34:27.600
<v Speaker 7>so that progress I think is going to continue. So

0:34:27.640 --> 0:34:31.880
<v Speaker 7>those brands are very central to that long term plan.

0:34:32.400 --> 0:34:34.920
<v Speaker 7>That side. You're right, there is a lot of Tyson

0:34:34.960 --> 0:34:36.279
<v Speaker 7>meat out there that you eat and you don't even

0:34:36.320 --> 0:34:39.480
<v Speaker 7>realize it's Tyson. They you know, obviously will supply retailers

0:34:39.560 --> 0:34:41.920
<v Speaker 7>that then have that as their private label brand. There

0:34:41.920 --> 0:34:45.040
<v Speaker 7>are things like that that happen. But overall, what we're

0:34:45.080 --> 0:34:49.560
<v Speaker 7>seeing is with the consumer, especially lower income households, have

0:34:49.600 --> 0:34:51.840
<v Speaker 7>been trading more into private label and that has left

0:34:51.920 --> 0:34:54.960
<v Speaker 7>these brands a little bit lower in terms of overall

0:34:55.040 --> 0:34:58.040
<v Speaker 7>volumes that's being sold. So that's where we're seeing a

0:34:58.040 --> 0:35:00.400
<v Speaker 7>little bit a little bit of that brand volatile in

0:35:00.440 --> 0:35:01.480
<v Speaker 7>the last few quarters.

0:35:02.040 --> 0:35:04.280
<v Speaker 2>Jen, you need to talk to investors in this company.

0:35:04.360 --> 0:35:06.319
<v Speaker 2>What's the call here? I mean, are they do they

0:35:06.360 --> 0:35:08.520
<v Speaker 2>own it for the dividend? Did they own it because

0:35:08.560 --> 0:35:12.000
<v Speaker 2>they're bullush on chicken? I mean, what's the investment call

0:35:12.080 --> 0:35:14.080
<v Speaker 2>for owning a food company like this?

0:35:15.160 --> 0:35:18.600
<v Speaker 7>Well, the dividend has been something that's been of appeal

0:35:18.719 --> 0:35:22.000
<v Speaker 7>in recent years. The good news is that Tyson is

0:35:22.040 --> 0:35:24.439
<v Speaker 7>back to where their free cash flower generation will cover

0:35:24.520 --> 0:35:28.000
<v Speaker 7>the dividend. That also appeases some concern that the dividend

0:35:28.080 --> 0:35:32.400
<v Speaker 7>might be cut. So generally it's been along those lines.

0:35:32.719 --> 0:35:36.240
<v Speaker 7>There is also long term growth. Tyson has been slowly

0:35:36.280 --> 0:35:40.640
<v Speaker 7>expanding international operations. When they get the formula right, meaning

0:35:40.680 --> 0:35:42.719
<v Speaker 7>they get the right productivity in the plants that they've

0:35:42.760 --> 0:35:46.160
<v Speaker 7>opened up overseas, there's a long runway for potential growth

0:35:46.520 --> 0:35:49.000
<v Speaker 7>for Tyson outside the United States as well as within

0:35:49.040 --> 0:35:51.320
<v Speaker 7>the United States. So that's a little bit of the

0:35:51.360 --> 0:35:54.719
<v Speaker 7>appeal as well if you're a longer term perspective investor.

0:35:54.880 --> 0:35:56.799
<v Speaker 6>Anything that investors have to keep their eyes on when

0:35:56.840 --> 0:35:59.919
<v Speaker 6>it comes to supply issues out there, any bird flu

0:36:00.040 --> 0:36:03.520
<v Speaker 6>avian flu type stuff that's getting into their production line

0:36:03.560 --> 0:36:05.880
<v Speaker 6>that we've seen hit other types of companies.

0:36:06.239 --> 0:36:08.800
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, so the bird flu or avian flu is certainly

0:36:08.800 --> 0:36:11.040
<v Speaker 7>something that's in the headlines lately. You know, we've seen

0:36:11.080 --> 0:36:14.040
<v Speaker 7>outbreaks in very specific areas. Thus far hasn't really had

0:36:14.040 --> 0:36:17.239
<v Speaker 7>a major impact on Tyson this year, but we are

0:36:17.280 --> 0:36:21.000
<v Speaker 7>watching that very carefully. One of the longer term issues

0:36:21.280 --> 0:36:23.720
<v Speaker 7>Tyson's going to face is just the beef cattle cycle.

0:36:24.120 --> 0:36:26.720
<v Speaker 7>We're at the bottom of a cycle. There's very limited

0:36:27.120 --> 0:36:31.400
<v Speaker 7>animal availability, and once that starts to rebuild, things are

0:36:31.440 --> 0:36:33.080
<v Speaker 7>going to get a little bit worse before they get

0:36:33.120 --> 0:36:37.200
<v Speaker 7>better with regards to supply. That means that the profitability

0:36:37.239 --> 0:36:40.080
<v Speaker 7>of the cattle, of the beef segment within Tyson is

0:36:40.080 --> 0:36:42.680
<v Speaker 7>going to remain pressured well into twenty twenty five.

0:36:43.160 --> 0:36:46.360
<v Speaker 3>Our thanks to Jen Bartash's Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst, retail

0:36:46.360 --> 0:36:47.840
<v Speaker 3>stables and packaged.

0:36:47.440 --> 0:36:53.040
<v Speaker 1>Boot This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apples, Spotter, Pye,

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