1 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: On this episode of news World, the government shut down 2 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,360 Speaker 1: looms over Washington and people wonder if Congress will ever 3 00:00:11,400 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: come to an agreement to reopen the government. Here to 4 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:16,920 Speaker 1: talk about the government shutdown in the current economic forecast, 5 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 1: I'm really pleased to welcome my guest, doctor Vance Gibb. 6 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:23,639 Speaker 1: He is the former chief economist for the Office of 7 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: Management Budget, the founder and president of Gain Economic Consulting, 8 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 1: and the host of Let People prosper a podcast. Vance, 9 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 1: Welcome and thank you for joining me again on newts World. 10 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:49,559 Speaker 2: Speaker Gingrich, It's always a pleasure to be with you 11 00:00:49,720 --> 00:00:50,479 Speaker 2: and all the. 12 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:51,160 Speaker 3: Work that you've done. 13 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 2: Thank you for joining the guiding light of where we 14 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 2: should be heading instead of the fiasco we have in 15 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 2: DC today. 16 00:00:57,160 --> 00:00:59,080 Speaker 1: You just know so much. I was only looking forward 17 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: to this because there's so many different things going on, 18 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,679 Speaker 1: and given that you served as the first President Trump's 19 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,399 Speaker 1: White House Director of the Office of Management Budget from 20 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 1: June twenty nineteen to May twenty twenty, you really have 21 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: an overview which I think for most people that really 22 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 1: understand omb. Can you talk a little bit about what 23 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:18,520 Speaker 1: it was life and what it was like to be 24 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: the director. 25 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,200 Speaker 3: So I was actually the chief economist. Russ Vote was 26 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 3: my boss. 27 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 2: He was the acting director at the time, so I 28 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 2: was a chief economist directly under him, but I was 29 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:29,400 Speaker 2: one of seven in leadership of a five hundred and 30 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 2: thirty five person agency at that time. I think there's 31 00:01:32,160 --> 00:01:36,479 Speaker 2: been some furloughs since then. But OMB is fascinating. I mean, 32 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 2: it really controls a lot of where the money is flowing. 33 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 2: Congress passes it, as you know from the budgets you 34 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 2: passed back in the day, and then the OMB gets 35 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 2: that money and then they distributed out to all the 36 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 2: executive agencies where things happen. There's associate directors for healthcare, 37 00:01:51,960 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 2: for education, for different ones that really oversee that money. 38 00:01:55,320 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 2: And so OMB really has a step right there at 39 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 2: the White House and the Eisenhower Executive Office Building. I 40 00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 2: remember where I would go into the Navy mess anytime 41 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 2: I wanted to and see all these people that talk 42 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 2: to people and really gain knowledge and insight from them 43 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 2: along the way. But you're right, O, and B has 44 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 2: a huge influence on the budget process, and right now. 45 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,839 Speaker 3: With Russ Vote there again, he's a big fiscal hawk. 46 00:02:17,880 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 2: I think he's doing a lot of the right things 47 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 2: that are there we need to understand not only what 48 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 2: OMB does, but how much that Congress also needs to 49 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:26,040 Speaker 2: start doing their job as well. 50 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 1: You've known Russ, the fact is he's in a central 51 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 1: role right now in this shutdown and then trying to 52 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 1: get back to a balanced budget. What was your sense 53 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 1: of him as a boss? 54 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 2: Well, I mean, look, his key thing was at that 55 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 2: time was let's find savings wherever we can, Let's dig 56 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 2: out the ways fraud and abuse. There was a big 57 00:02:45,960 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 2: focus on discretionary spending, which you know is maybe a. 58 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 3: Quarter of the budget. 59 00:02:50,440 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 2: But his point was if we can't get our own 60 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 2: fiscal house in order on discretionary things, how can we 61 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:57,920 Speaker 2: go ask the elderly or the older age or they 62 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:00,399 Speaker 2: who are on Social Security to have reform for social 63 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 2: Security or Medicare. 64 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:03,239 Speaker 3: And so I think there were some good points there 65 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 3: that was made. 66 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 2: And so he had a steadfast vision of reducing the 67 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:09,800 Speaker 2: size and scope of government, and that was something that 68 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 2: I totally agreed with and something that we kept pushing 69 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 2: for each day while I was there from June twenty 70 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 2: nineteen to May of twenty twenty. 71 00:03:16,000 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 1: Dylan, know you have an insider's vio from your perspective. 72 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: How effective has the Department of Government Efficiency, so called 73 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 1: DOZE been so far, and do you think is achieving 74 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:27,359 Speaker 1: the goal of cutting waste? 75 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 2: It's a great question, Speaker, and I think whenever I'm 76 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:32,320 Speaker 2: looking back at it, we got to think about Okay, 77 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 2: whenever they went in Elon Musk and others, they said 78 00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 2: we're going to find two trillion dollars in savings. I 79 00:03:37,600 --> 00:03:39,960 Speaker 2: think that was kind of a pipe dream. But it's 80 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 2: nice to have a north star of where you want 81 00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 2: to be at some point. I think at the end 82 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 2: of the day Congress they were sended about ten billion 83 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 2: dollars worth of money. 84 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 3: So that's good, that's a good start. 85 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 2: But there was also a lot of contracts that were 86 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 2: cut and saying, look, why are we spending money on 87 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:58,119 Speaker 2: all this ridiculous stuff, and those. 88 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,200 Speaker 3: Contracts, as you know, we're out in the future. 89 00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 2: So I think we're not only seeing maybe some smaller 90 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 2: amount of savings today, but the savings will also go 91 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 2: out in the future. And I'm not sure exactly what 92 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,600 Speaker 2: those amounts are now, but at least we're starting to 93 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:13,240 Speaker 2: look at the fraud, waste and abuse that's within government 94 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:14,240 Speaker 2: because it's large. 95 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:16,280 Speaker 3: I mean I've done some work on healthcare. 96 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 2: For example, I have a new book called Empower Patients 97 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 2: with doctor Dean Waldman, where we go through health care 98 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,720 Speaker 2: and everything else. And we spend across the country five 99 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 2: trillion dollars on healthcare every year, and from our estimates 100 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 2: and looking at other research, about half of that goes 101 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,600 Speaker 2: to bureaucracy and regulation and paperwork. 102 00:04:33,640 --> 00:04:34,960 Speaker 3: It doesn't go to patient care. 103 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,800 Speaker 2: And so if that's half in healthcare, just imagine what 104 00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 2: it is across many other areas of our economy. 105 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,920 Speaker 1: When you think about it. My dad was a career soldier, 106 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:47,560 Speaker 1: and I remember in the late fifties under Eisenhower, they 107 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 1: had a reduction in force, and we had actually some 108 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:55,520 Speaker 1: officers who were reduced to being sergeants, but stayed in 109 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 1: because they wanted their pension. So when I see about 110 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 1: reduction force, I don't see that as a gigantic thing. 111 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 1: But it seems to have shocked the Washington establishment that 112 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: the Trump administration is actually reducing people permanently as part 113 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 1: of the shutdown. What's your reaction to that strategy. 114 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:13,400 Speaker 3: I think it's important. 115 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 2: I mean, if you think about one of the main 116 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 2: cost drivers of just the federal government itself of the operations, 117 00:05:19,040 --> 00:05:21,880 Speaker 2: the labor the workers, that's a huge cost, and of 118 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:24,920 Speaker 2: course they get pretty large pension funds and everything else 119 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 2: that are tied to that, and so that increases the cost. 120 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 2: So one way to reduce the cost is reduced in 121 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,120 Speaker 2: the number of workers at the same time. 122 00:05:32,640 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: Going back to Elon Musk, I. 123 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:35,400 Speaker 2: Mean, look, whatever he took over Twitter, and I know 124 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 2: Twitter is X now and it's not the federal government 125 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 2: or anything like that, but he cut the workforce substantially, 126 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:44,159 Speaker 2: I think by eighty percent, and they still found ways 127 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 2: to improve. I mean, X is probably better than it 128 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 2: ever was today. What if we could do something similar 129 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,039 Speaker 2: to the federal government. You're always going to have some 130 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 2: cogs in the wheel, if you will, of moving paperwork 131 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 2: around and making sure the regulations are checked and stuff 132 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 2: like that. But in a period of time when we 133 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 2: have a lot more technology and AI and other things 134 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:03,720 Speaker 2: that are going on, I think there's a great way 135 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 2: to improve. 136 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 3: Some efficiencies if we can. 137 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,599 Speaker 2: It's difficult in the federal government to get efficiencies, but 138 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 2: I think this is one way to do it. I'm 139 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:13,919 Speaker 2: glad that they're looking at how many employees are in 140 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 2: certain areas of government and looking at those contracts and 141 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:18,679 Speaker 2: figuring out how can we get more money. 142 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 3: Back into the private sector. 143 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 2: Because with US running two trillion dollars a year in 144 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,440 Speaker 2: deficits last year was one point eight trillion dollars and 145 00:06:25,480 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 2: thirty seven trillion dollars in national debt one trillion dollars 146 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:31,560 Speaker 2: plus and just net interest payments on the debt, we've 147 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 2: got to start cutting somewhere. And so whether it be 148 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 2: from what DOGE is doing on contracts and other cuts 149 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:40,480 Speaker 2: versus during the shutdown, permanent layoffs at the federal government. 150 00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 2: I don't know how many of these at the end 151 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 2: of the day, Speaker will be permanent compared to furloughs 152 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 2: that they'll pay them back, But it does look like 153 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,440 Speaker 2: russ Vote and others that are there are really trying 154 00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 2: to find ways to cut the government permanently. 155 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 1: Eisenhower was very tough on spending. He would have agreed 156 00:06:56,279 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 1: with Treasure Sectory Best on recent comment that the problem 157 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:02,680 Speaker 1: is not revenue, the problem is spending. And I know 158 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: you've said something very similar that we must be clear 159 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 1: that the shutdown is just a symptom. The disease is 160 00:07:07,800 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 1: runaway government spending. How do we get across to the 161 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: average American the time bomb that is building in the 162 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: scale of the federal debt and the amount we're not 163 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: paying an interest on that debt. I mean, how can 164 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: we communicate that? 165 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 2: Well, I think in some sense, the federal government's doing 166 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 2: it for us. 167 00:07:25,200 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 3: Speaker. 168 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 2: I mean, if you look at the inflation that we 169 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 2: had during the Biden years, people saw that measurably in 170 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 2: their own life and saw that they couldn't put food 171 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,480 Speaker 2: on the table, they couldn't make ends meet every month, 172 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:38,440 Speaker 2: and they had to get multiple jobs and all the 173 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 2: things that that created. And while in my view, government 174 00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 2: spending doesn't create inflation, what it does do is when 175 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,000 Speaker 2: you run deficits, the Federal reserve, well, interest rates would 176 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 2: go up. Well, the Federal Reserve doesn't want interest rates 177 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 2: to go up, so they come in and buy the debt. 178 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 2: They print money, and that money printing creates the inflation 179 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 2: that's around us, which is a direct result of the 180 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:00,239 Speaker 2: overspending of Congress. What I've been trying to do talking 181 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 2: to college students and others across the country is to say, look, 182 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 2: we saw the direct effects from this inflation that was 183 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 2: out there. Yes, interest rates are up higher than they 184 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 2: were back then as well. But if you just look 185 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,320 Speaker 2: at the cost of everything that's going around you, this 186 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:16,320 Speaker 2: is the direct result of the overspending by Congress and 187 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 2: the FED printing too much money. And I think if 188 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 2: we could start getting those things tied together, which they 189 00:08:21,320 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 2: should be, then we have a better presentation of the 190 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:26,200 Speaker 2: cost of overspending by government. 191 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: One of the areas I've been fascinated by is the 192 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:32,079 Speaker 1: degree to which the Doud Frank Act was in fact 193 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:34,320 Speaker 1: a bad idea and that some of the things that 194 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:39,560 Speaker 1: created are I think disastrous. And when Obama signed the 195 00:08:39,600 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 1: Consumer Protection Act under law and created this totally independent agency, 196 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:46,080 Speaker 1: I think one of the very few places in the 197 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:49,560 Speaker 1: government where they generate their own money, and they've gon 198 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 1: to be huge in terms of number of people that employ. 199 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 1: Talk a little bit about why the CFPB, the Consumer 200 00:08:56,640 --> 00:09:00,040 Speaker 1: Finance Protection Bureau, Why is it a bad idea and 201 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 1: what do we need to do about it? 202 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 3: I think you don't have to look too far speaker. 203 00:09:03,360 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 2: I mean, we had Elizabeth Warren, she was the first 204 00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 2: director of the CFBB back in the day, and we 205 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 2: know how socialist she is. Why do we need the 206 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 2: government protecting consumers consumers are best predicted by the marketplace 207 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:19,960 Speaker 2: of whether or not they want to buy something or not, 208 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:23,240 Speaker 2: and that allows for volunteer exchange to happen. We don't 209 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 2: need a whole government agency. And the way that they're 210 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:28,880 Speaker 2: finance right is through the Federal Reserve. So the Federal 211 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,840 Speaker 2: Reserve is running net operating losses of over two hundred 212 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 2: billion dollars a year right now, and yet they're still 213 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 2: funding the CFP at the same time. What I've been 214 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 2: trying to get across to my former boss Russ Vote 215 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 2: that we were just talking about, is he's right now 216 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 2: the acting director of the CFPB and the director of OMB. 217 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:47,480 Speaker 2: Why don't we find ways to continue to cut what 218 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 2: they're doing? And they're doing all these bad rules as well, 219 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 2: related to the Dodd Frank Act back in was it 220 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 2: two thousand and nine during the Obama administration, is this 221 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,319 Speaker 2: section ten thirty three rule, which is they're calling to 222 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 2: open banking rule, but really it's just forcing information from 223 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 2: bigger banks to give to a lot of other banks. 224 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,400 Speaker 2: And I don't know about you, speaker, but the first 225 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 2: thing I learned in economics is nothing is free. Nothing 226 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 2: is free out there. The government shouldn't be mandating these 227 00:10:12,400 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 2: sort of things. And so this is just one area 228 00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 2: of the CFPB, the Section ten thirty three rule and 229 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,679 Speaker 2: other things they're trying to do. We're just overstepping the 230 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 2: bounds of a limited government form of the roles of 231 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:25,320 Speaker 2: limited government. 232 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 1: If you could, would you just abolish it? I would. 233 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:30,839 Speaker 3: I think there's no reason for it. I mean, there's 234 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:32,400 Speaker 3: no constitutional direction. 235 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 2: And so you know, Speaker, I don't understand why we 236 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 2: would create something that's funded by another independent agency. 237 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 3: And they did that. 238 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 2: They did it because they didn't want Congress to have 239 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 2: to fund it, because they knew that there was a problem. 240 00:10:45,040 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 2: I think that's another reason why I should go away. 241 00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:07,199 Speaker 1: Well, it strikes men. I think this is where Republicans 242 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: maybe aren't quite intellectual enough. There's a whole wave of 243 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 1: Obama Biden laws and Obama Biden rules through that twelve 244 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:20,599 Speaker 1: year period between the eight years of Obama and the 245 00:11:20,640 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 1: four years of Biden, and the Biden administration was essentially 246 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: just Obama carried forward in terms of staffing and attitude. 247 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 1: But those twelve years were disastrous. I think, whether it's 248 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 1: in healthcare or as you point out, in the Consumer 249 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:37,320 Speaker 1: Financial Protection Bureau or in a host of other places, 250 00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:40,760 Speaker 1: we ought to be much clearer about how wrong these 251 00:11:40,800 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 1: approaches are. I mean, the country instinctively opposes big government 252 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 1: socialism and understands that it doesn't work. And I think 253 00:11:49,120 --> 00:11:53,760 Speaker 1: that we can really profoundly change the system and have 254 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: the country with us if they understand that it's principled 255 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,960 Speaker 1: and it's based on the failures of Obama and Biden. 256 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, great points there. 257 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:03,679 Speaker 2: And just to add to that to kind of make 258 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 2: it relevant to what's going on today with this federal 259 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 2: government shutdown, and as we're recording this, I mean it's 260 00:12:08,240 --> 00:12:10,320 Speaker 2: been shut down now for a couple of weeks, and 261 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 2: I think when you look at this, what is the 262 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 2: real reason. Well, it's because Democrats want to add one 263 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,839 Speaker 2: point five trillion more dollars in spending. I mean, the 264 00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:20,319 Speaker 2: Republicans came in and we could argue whether or not 265 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 2: this was a good idea speaker, that they had a 266 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 2: clean cr that was basically extending all of Biden's sort 267 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:28,559 Speaker 2: of spending to try to get a couple more months 268 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 2: or some more time to talk about healthcare reforms and 269 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,240 Speaker 2: other things. And the Democrats wouldn't even agree to that, 270 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 2: and this was Biden's spending. What the Democrats are trying 271 00:12:37,040 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 2: to do is to extend the emergency declarations during COVID 272 00:12:41,640 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 2: of more people were not able to age out or 273 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,319 Speaker 2: income out off of Medicaid. They made it all these 274 00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 2: suspensions of these rules and everything else, and they want 275 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 2: to keep those people on that are now making way 276 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:55,559 Speaker 2: more than what you should be eligible for to get 277 00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:57,720 Speaker 2: on Medicaid. We're up to almost twenty percent of people 278 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:01,679 Speaker 2: on Medicaid, when initially when Medicaid was created, there was 279 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 2: only about five percent. So it's unfathomable to me that 280 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 2: the Democrats would want to continue to push this. Well, 281 00:13:07,040 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 2: I know why they want to do it, right, Speaker, 282 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 2: is that they want universal healthcare. If the more people 283 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 2: they get on the program, the more difficult it is 284 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 2: to get them off. 285 00:13:14,360 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 3: And that's why this kind of fight is going on. 286 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 2: And I don't know when the Democrats, or I guess 287 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 2: they're going to give in at some point to get 288 00:13:20,800 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 2: the government open again, because at the same time, we've 289 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:25,880 Speaker 2: got to look at the overall spending, and I think 290 00:13:25,960 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 2: that's where healthcare is a great way to do it, and. 291 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 3: We don't need money going to illegal aliens. 292 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 2: Just like we don't need it to go to Americans 293 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,440 Speaker 2: who have higher incomes and have aged out of the program. 294 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 1: You wrote, I thought it was very powerful that the 295 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 1: US healthcare system is failing Americans because awards, bureaucracy not care. 296 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:47,880 Speaker 1: What do you mean by that and how did the 297 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:49,439 Speaker 1: system become so misaligned? 298 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,080 Speaker 2: In our latest book on Empowered Patients, doctor Dean Waldman, 299 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 2: and then I have a paper also at Americans for 300 00:13:55,440 --> 00:13:58,640 Speaker 2: Tax Reform where I'm a staff economist there Empower Patients Initiative. 301 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 2: We talk a lot about how the root cause of 302 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:06,559 Speaker 2: the healthcare crisis in America is government. It's a third 303 00:14:06,559 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 2: party payer system, right, whether it be Medicare, Medicaid or 304 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:13,439 Speaker 2: other sort of government programs. Also, private health insurance is 305 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 2: a third party payer and I don't have necessarily anything 306 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:18,880 Speaker 2: wrong with them, but we've been forced into private health 307 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 2: insurance because of government decree back in the World War 308 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 2: two wage and price controls whenever there was no way 309 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:30,400 Speaker 2: to give out additional wages, so employers started providing employer 310 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 2: sponsored health insurance and then there was a tax break 311 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 2: for it, and so that's crept into the system at 312 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 2: us not paying the amount of money that we ordinarily 313 00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 2: would for health care, and I think we would actually 314 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 2: pay much less if government wasn't forcing us into the situation. 315 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 2: So all their regulation, red tape unnecessary rules of pushing 316 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 2: us more and more into healthcare through our employer and 317 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 2: on all these government spending programs. Because about sixty cents 318 00:14:55,800 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 2: of every dollar from our research and health care is 319 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 2: spent by government, meaning us the taxpayer. It's a redistribution 320 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 2: sort of project they have going on, and so when 321 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 2: you look at all those costs, you get about fifty 322 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 2: percent of the five trillion dollars we spend, so let's 323 00:15:10,160 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 2: say two and a half trillion is going to something 324 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 2: that's not patient care. And I think you could increase 325 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 2: patient care, or you could cut taxes and give more 326 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 2: money back to people so they could take care of themselves. 327 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:23,840 Speaker 2: But I think this also is a big problem here. 328 00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 2: Another issue that I've been talking a lot about is 329 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:29,680 Speaker 2: a dependency crisis. I think we're in independency crisis, whether 330 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,080 Speaker 2: it be Medicaid and Democrats wanting to put more and 331 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 2: more people on it, or other types of health care 332 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 2: expenditures as well. There's this a lot of the pendency 333 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 2: on government, meaning someone else the taxpayer to pay for 334 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 2: these things. 335 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: Yeah. For some reason, I think because they are big 336 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:49,239 Speaker 1: government socialists. Democrats prefer anything which takes away your individual 337 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 1: strength and forces you to rely on government. It's amazing 338 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 1: that their model is essentially a totally government centric America, 339 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 1: which would of course be radically different. 340 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 2: On that point if I could is I think oftentimes 341 00:16:03,080 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 2: I'm a Christian and God is above government. But I 342 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:08,000 Speaker 2: think too often we get people like in the Democrats 343 00:16:08,040 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 2: who want to believe that government is God the lower 344 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 2: case G, and they wanted government to do everything. 345 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 1: I think that's right. You know. One of the things 346 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: I'm working on now is that we have, with new 347 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 1: technology and new science, we have an opportunity to help 348 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 1: Americans who are challenged and to literally move from a 349 00:16:25,920 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 1: focus on disabilities to a focus on capabilities and in 350 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: a sense to liberate millions of people to have a 351 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:36,920 Speaker 1: much fuller life and a much more self reliant life 352 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: than we currently think about when we put them into 353 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: sort of a disabilities category. And that's an example of 354 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,760 Speaker 1: the transition. We did this, as you know, when I 355 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:48,080 Speaker 1: was speaker with moving from welfare to workfare, and the 356 00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 1: effect was enormous and the number of children who left 357 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:54,560 Speaker 1: poverty was the largest number in American history, and it 358 00:16:54,640 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: was because their parents were going to work, which not 359 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,400 Speaker 1: only increased their revenue, but it had the good virtue 360 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,160 Speaker 1: that children were learning. But on Monday, it's okay to 361 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 1: go to work and not just sit around and wait 362 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:07,639 Speaker 1: for somebody to send you a check. So we were 363 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:11,600 Speaker 1: changing the whole culture. The Democrats, to a surprising degree, 364 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 1: just hated They hated the idea of people being independent, 365 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,919 Speaker 1: which I thought was truly bizarre, but plent. They go 366 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,639 Speaker 1: to a totally different topic for seconds. You've written something 367 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: I believe in strongly and would like to see the 368 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 1: Trump administration pick up, and that is that we should 369 00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 1: index capital gains. Could you describe why you think that's important. 370 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 2: It's substantial right now when you think about your stocks 371 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 2: or your housing value, other things that you may be 372 00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:41,800 Speaker 2: taxed on whenever you get those realized gains that's based 373 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 2: on capital gains, taxes, things of that nature. 374 00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:46,000 Speaker 3: But that's when you realize it, when you. 375 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 2: Actually have the amount of money coming into your pocket 376 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 2: and then you can pay those taxes. That's one thing, 377 00:17:50,760 --> 00:17:53,960 Speaker 2: because that's a source of income. However, what we've seen 378 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 2: within the capital gains and within the stock market and 379 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 2: things that nature. Just use that as an example, is 380 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,879 Speaker 2: that over time, part of the gains are due to 381 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 2: inflationary pressures across the economy, meaning the Federal Reserve printing 382 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 2: money and things of that nature that are not real returns. 383 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 2: In fact, it's taxing unrealized capital gains over time because 384 00:18:14,680 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 2: of that aminum inflation that's happening. In other words, we 385 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 2: are being taxed too much and therefore disincentivizing the amount 386 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,439 Speaker 2: of savings and capital that can go into businesses. Because remember, 387 00:18:25,760 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 2: more than half of Americans now have some form of 388 00:18:28,400 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 2: money and stocks and savings through four. 389 00:18:30,520 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 3: One K and other things that are out there. 390 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,439 Speaker 2: I think it's closer to sixty percent nowadays actually, And 391 00:18:34,480 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 2: so it's not just the quote unquote rich, it's a 392 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:40,679 Speaker 2: broad swath of Americans across the country. And so indexing 393 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 2: for capital gains is important to make it measured on inflation. 394 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 2: That way, you can adjust for the nominal gains to 395 00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 2: real gains in economic terms or in other words, on 396 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 2: the things that you actually have money out for and 397 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 2: have real gains over time. And so I think this 398 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,439 Speaker 2: is also huge for the economy. If there was not 399 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,719 Speaker 2: the emplaytion tax, if you will, on capital gains, there 400 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,200 Speaker 2: would be more money put into the stock market, more 401 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 2: returns for those who were savers, and more returns for 402 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 2: businesses that are receiving those funds, and so the economic 403 00:19:11,000 --> 00:19:12,960 Speaker 2: gains are substantial, and. 404 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:14,640 Speaker 3: So I think this is something that needs to be done. 405 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 2: When I was at OMB in the first Trump administration, 406 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 2: we looked at this quite a lot. 407 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 3: We found at OMB that this was a step in 408 00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 3: the right direction. 409 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:26,200 Speaker 2: Unfortunately, someone in the administration, mainly the Treasury, didn't agree 410 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,160 Speaker 2: with us, and so they pushed back and ultimately Minuchin 411 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:30,439 Speaker 2: and others won that debate. 412 00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:32,639 Speaker 3: But I think it is something that needs to be 413 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 3: looked at. 414 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,639 Speaker 2: I would like to see Congress do it, Speaker, I 415 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 2: think that would be the best way to do it, 416 00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,480 Speaker 2: but I think there's also a path for Trade Secretary 417 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:43,240 Speaker 2: Vessett and the Treasury to do this in the meantime 418 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 2: until Congress can get something past. 419 00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:50,080 Speaker 1: If you were looking at negotiating once the government shutdown 420 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 1: is over, and I've been pretty clear that they have 421 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,719 Speaker 1: to reopen the government before we negotiate, and I think 422 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 1: Trump's pretty clear on that, and certainly, Mike Johnson and 423 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,800 Speaker 1: John Thun have been clear on it. So one they 424 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,040 Speaker 1: get around on negotiating, do you have a sort of 425 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: scorecard for how you would approach what's a good Republican 426 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: solution on where we are with particularly this whole COVID 427 00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:14,480 Speaker 1: insurance subsidy, but also just in general, if you were 428 00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:18,199 Speaker 1: going into that negotiation, what would you want to have 429 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 1: as the things Republicans should insist on. 430 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 2: Starting off with the COVID era tax credits for Obamacare, 431 00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:25,719 Speaker 2: I mean, all those should go away. 432 00:20:26,119 --> 00:20:27,440 Speaker 3: To me, there's no need for it. 433 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 2: Even the Body Administration ended the emergency declaration, and so 434 00:20:31,320 --> 00:20:33,400 Speaker 2: we should go back to some sense of normal, going 435 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 2: back to before the covid Era. I mean, I would 436 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:37,080 Speaker 2: love to see the budget go back to the twenty 437 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:39,920 Speaker 2: nineteen levels. The last budget that I helped write for 438 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,880 Speaker 2: the President, for fiscal year twenty twenty one, the budget 439 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,640 Speaker 2: was four point six trillion dollars, and at the time. 440 00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 3: We still were like, this is too much, this is 441 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:48,119 Speaker 3: too much. 442 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 2: And the latest numbers for fiscal year twenty twenty five 443 00:20:50,680 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 2: just came out and it was seven trillion dollars. 444 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:54,679 Speaker 3: We're up to seven trillion dollars. 445 00:20:54,680 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 2: Now, I know it's a herculean effort, if you will, 446 00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 2: to go back to the twenty nineteen levels, but we've 447 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 2: got to think about cutting that at some point. And 448 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 2: also at America's for tax reform with Grover Norquist and 449 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 2: all of them who are doing some great work, we've 450 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 2: been working on sustainable budgeting, which means that if once 451 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,440 Speaker 2: we get back to a better level of government, which 452 00:21:12,440 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 2: should be cut. 453 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:14,720 Speaker 3: But let's say we start where we're at today. 454 00:21:15,119 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 2: We need to have some sort of growth limit, a 455 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:21,000 Speaker 2: spending limit, and we've argued that the maximum should be 456 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:24,840 Speaker 2: population growth plus inflation. And if you limited to population 457 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,960 Speaker 2: growth plus inflation and we had one percentage point more 458 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 2: in economic growth, we could balance the budget in five years. 459 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,680 Speaker 2: So just limiting the growth of spending and having more 460 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 2: economic growth for more revenue would allow for us to 461 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 2: balance the budget in five years. 462 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 3: And so if I was in that room, I. 463 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 2: Would be making the case that, look, we've got to 464 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:42,960 Speaker 2: get our fiscal house in order. 465 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,640 Speaker 3: Let's get rid of the COVID era tax credits. 466 00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 2: The emergency is over, let's get out of that business, 467 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 2: and then let's limit the growth of spending on population 468 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 2: inflation as a maximum, and then also let's have more growth, 469 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,200 Speaker 2: let's find ways to deregulate the economy, as the Trump 470 00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 2: administration is starting to do. 471 00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:00,680 Speaker 3: I would like to see us on the one big 472 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 3: beautiful bill. 473 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 2: They extended the Trump era tax cuts of the Tax 474 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 2: Cuts and Jobs Act. 475 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 3: And there were some other things in there. 476 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,120 Speaker 2: But then there's still some key reforms that we could 477 00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:11,000 Speaker 2: have that would allow for more economic growth. In getting 478 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:13,679 Speaker 2: government out of the way, whether it's an energy, healthcare, 479 00:22:13,720 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 2: and other places, would allow more money in people's pockets, 480 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,040 Speaker 2: and that way we could see more economic growth and 481 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,120 Speaker 2: we can balance the budget in a faster time period. 482 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 1: How strongly would you oppose ideal coming out of this 483 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 1: shutdown when they sit down and negotiate, How strongly would 484 00:22:48,480 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 1: you oppose anything which increase the deficit? 485 00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 2: I would be opposed to it, and just in general 486 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,159 Speaker 2: and principle, but I have to look at what the 487 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,440 Speaker 2: details are right, what are we giving. 488 00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,040 Speaker 3: Up in order to get And you know there's always 489 00:22:59,080 --> 00:22:59,719 Speaker 3: trade offs. 490 00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 2: Even in economics, thomasol said, there're no solutions, only trade offs. 491 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:05,560 Speaker 2: And you know this speaker from going in those back 492 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 2: rooms that there's always trade offs that are going on 493 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,439 Speaker 2: and so I would try to be a hardliner. I 494 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,120 Speaker 2: believe myself is a fiscal hawk, and so I would 495 00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 2: try to keep pushing us not to get to a 496 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 2: place where weere we're increasing deficits, but if there is 497 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,880 Speaker 2: some sense of pro growth policies that are in there 498 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,320 Speaker 2: that on a static basis would increase the deficit a 499 00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,919 Speaker 2: little bit, but on a pro growth policy or a 500 00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 2: dynamic scoring would balance the budget or bring down the deficits. 501 00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,280 Speaker 2: That's something that I think we should look at on these negotiations. 502 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: How big a challenge in that sense is the way 503 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 1: Congressional Budget Office scores things. 504 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 3: It's a big challenge. 505 00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 2: I mean, it's something that whenever I was at OMB, 506 00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:42,800 Speaker 2: we looked at it, but we would always come up 507 00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,800 Speaker 2: with our own projections. I was the associate director for 508 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,200 Speaker 2: Economic Policy, had a team of about ten PhD economists 509 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,720 Speaker 2: and some others who were looking at efficiencies within government, 510 00:23:51,960 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 2: and we had some different types of models we could 511 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 2: look at and everything. We would do it from a 512 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 2: dynamic perspective every time, because we live in a dynamic 513 00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 2: world and we don't live in a static world. Behaviors 514 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:05,159 Speaker 2: changed and centers change, things of that nature. And so 515 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,600 Speaker 2: the CBO, I think provides a good service in the 516 00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:10,800 Speaker 2: sense that it gives us some numbers, but I wish 517 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,359 Speaker 2: they would be more realistic. In fact, I would argue 518 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 2: if I was CBA director, which I don't know if 519 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,160 Speaker 2: i'll ever be one day, but if I was, why 520 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 2: don't we look at a range, maybe more of a 521 00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 2: spectrum of here's the static results and here's the dynamic. 522 00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 2: Don't publish just one and then that way you let 523 00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:27,760 Speaker 2: the public decide, you let congressmen and women decide what 524 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 2: they want to look at. 525 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 3: I think that would be a better way. 526 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 1: Isn't it a fact that historically some of their estamates 527 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:35,760 Speaker 1: have been off by like trillions of dollars? 528 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 3: Yeah? 529 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 1: I mean, how can you have a yardstick which is 530 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 1: that elastic? 531 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:44,440 Speaker 3: Exactly? Yeah, you can't. You can't if. 532 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,720 Speaker 1: I've been trying to get the House and Centate budget 533 00:24:46,720 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 1: committees just to hold hearings, and insists that the Congressional 534 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:55,119 Speaker 1: Budget Office actually show us the algorithms and the formulas, 535 00:24:55,520 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 1: all of which are right now a hidden secret black 536 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 1: bucks mm hmmm, totally unaccountable for the process they use. 537 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 2: And I had the former CBO director Douglas holatez Iken 538 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,920 Speaker 2: on my podcast Lepio prosper Show, and we talked about 539 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:10,959 Speaker 2: all this stuff, and he was trying to move us 540 00:25:11,000 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 2: more in that direction of dynamic forecasting and everything else. 541 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:15,760 Speaker 2: But it's difficult when you have the belly of the 542 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,919 Speaker 2: beast within government and those bureaucrats who have been there 543 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 2: for a long time. It's very difficult to change up 544 00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:23,560 Speaker 2: some of those dynamics. But I hope that we can 545 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:26,199 Speaker 2: get to that point at some point, because if CBO 546 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,399 Speaker 2: is to provide any service at all, it's the Congressional 547 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,720 Speaker 2: Budget Office, meaning that they should be making as accurate 548 00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 2: a forecast as possible. And whenever we're looking at this 549 00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 2: from a budget or senateive finance perspective looking at appropriations, 550 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 2: it's already difficult enough to write a budget, much less. 551 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:43,800 Speaker 3: When you have bad numbers going into it. 552 00:25:44,520 --> 00:25:46,720 Speaker 1: Tell us all just for a minute, because it's such 553 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:51,320 Speaker 1: an important long term issue. About your book on health reform. 554 00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:55,159 Speaker 2: Yes, so, Power Patients, Two Doctors, Cure for Healthcare is 555 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 2: the name of the book. You can find a Durrance 556 00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,800 Speaker 2: Publishing dr Nce. We had the soft launch here recently. 557 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:03,679 Speaker 2: We're going to get more of that come out, but 558 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 2: we really go into and break down the healthcare system, 559 00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 2: where the money is going, how it's tied up to 560 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:14,360 Speaker 2: so many rules and regulations, paperwork and all these other 561 00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 2: things versus money going to actual care that's out there. 562 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:18,360 Speaker 3: I mean. 563 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 2: Also the paper is that Americans for Tax Reform and 564 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:25,080 Speaker 2: Power Patients Initiative, we not only take on these huge 565 00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,840 Speaker 2: costs of healthcare and how it's not helping people where 566 00:26:28,080 --> 00:26:30,600 Speaker 2: many people are really you know, speaker waiting in line, 567 00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 2: they're dying in line. Dying in que is what we've 568 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,240 Speaker 2: called because if you're on Medicaid. For example, I live 569 00:26:36,280 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 2: in Texas near Austin, Texas, only a third of doctors 570 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,919 Speaker 2: across Texas take new Medicaid patients, and so there is 571 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,200 Speaker 2: becoming more and more of a longer line of people 572 00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,200 Speaker 2: who are on Medicaid. At the same time that they're 573 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:51,240 Speaker 2: putting more people on Medicaid, we're seeing that they can't 574 00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,720 Speaker 2: even get access to quality care. And so the big 575 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:57,240 Speaker 2: points here are that covers is not equal care, and 576 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 2: so we need to separate those two. We also argue 577 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,160 Speaker 2: that instead of having an employer sponsored health insurance direct 578 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 2: tax credit, it should go to the employee. The employee 579 00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 2: should have this account and a no limit health stavings 580 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 2: account to where you could put as much money you 581 00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 2: want in there, to use it for health care, to 582 00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:15,160 Speaker 2: use it for health insurance, whatever you want. 583 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,440 Speaker 3: But don't force people to do that. 584 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 2: We also think that block grants to states for Medicaid 585 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:23,360 Speaker 2: and SNAP and everything else, that should be a fixed amount. 586 00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:26,639 Speaker 2: Maybe you increase it by inflation or some metric over time. 587 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:28,639 Speaker 2: But let's get away from this pay as you go 588 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:32,359 Speaker 2: sort of system where the state manipulates things to spend 589 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,919 Speaker 2: more and then brings down more money from the federal government, 590 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,159 Speaker 2: meaning socializing those costs across the country. We should get 591 00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:42,040 Speaker 2: back to a system of federalism where states can put 592 00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:42,800 Speaker 2: in place their. 593 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 3: Own Medicaid reforms. 594 00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,480 Speaker 2: And the other big thing here too that we look 595 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 2: at is finding more ways for the doctor patient relationship 596 00:27:50,680 --> 00:27:53,560 Speaker 2: is getting rid of that third party. Because in most 597 00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,760 Speaker 2: volunteer exchanges, when you go buy gas, or you go 598 00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 2: buy a stickers bar at a convenience store or whatever 599 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 2: else it is, you pay for that voluntarily and make 600 00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:03,119 Speaker 2: the transaction. 601 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:04,840 Speaker 3: In healthcare, we don't do that. 602 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,000 Speaker 2: That's one reason that it's jacked up the prices so 603 00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 2: much and it's led us to have a lot of issues. 604 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:12,199 Speaker 2: I also just published a paper continuing with this on 605 00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:16,200 Speaker 2: biotechnology and are we going to hand biotech to Beijing? 606 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:18,840 Speaker 2: And this is what the Americans for tax reform, because 607 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 2: what we're doing is we're trying to say we need 608 00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 2: a lower drug prices. And the TRUP administration's been out 609 00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 2: there advocating for this in a lot of ways, but 610 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,800 Speaker 2: we got to be careful speaker, where when we look 611 00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,280 Speaker 2: at this, if we have the most favorite nations sort 612 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,960 Speaker 2: of pricing and bring everybody down to the level of 613 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,160 Speaker 2: other countries, it also will likely dry. 614 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,040 Speaker 3: Up a lot of the R and D and innovation. 615 00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:41,480 Speaker 2: Each new drug costs about two billion dollars on average, 616 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 2: it takes about ten years to come to the market. 617 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,760 Speaker 2: I think there's bigger reforms like FDA streamlining. A lot 618 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 2: of this is because of the intellectual property and I 619 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,160 Speaker 2: think that there's contract law on things that nature need 620 00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 2: to take care of this. But we are waiting on 621 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,600 Speaker 2: these life saving drugs and making it more expensive in 622 00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:01,520 Speaker 2: the process. And so between bringing the doctor patients back 623 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,520 Speaker 2: together and empowering patients, I really believe that we can 624 00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,640 Speaker 2: have a better healthcare system that's more affordable and better 625 00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 2: quality in the process. 626 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:11,080 Speaker 1: I think you're exactly in the right direction, and I 627 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,840 Speaker 1: encourage people to get your book and to realize that 628 00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,000 Speaker 1: there's a lot of thought and a lot of ideas 629 00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:20,560 Speaker 1: and we have to dramatically improve the current system. It's 630 00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 1: too expensive, it slows down the rate of innovation, and 631 00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 1: it focuses on paying for sickness rather than paying for health. 632 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:31,640 Speaker 1: So I think you're onto a lot of big ideas, Dance. 633 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:33,680 Speaker 1: I want to thank you for joining me. I think 634 00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:36,200 Speaker 1: this has been really informative, and I want to mention 635 00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:39,560 Speaker 1: you do have a podcast called Let People Prosper, which 636 00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,520 Speaker 1: our listeners can find advanced in dot com or on 637 00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, and we will have that link on our 638 00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,080 Speaker 1: show page. So thank you very much for being with me. 639 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,719 Speaker 3: Hey, thank you so much, speaker. It's always a pleasure. 640 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, doctor Van Skin. You can 641 00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,479 Speaker 1: get a link to his podcast, Let People Prosper on 642 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 1: our show age at Newtsworld dot com. Newtsworld is produced 643 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:07,000 Speaker 1: by ginglishtreet sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producers Guernsey Sloan. 644 00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,880 Speaker 1: Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show 645 00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:14,280 Speaker 1: was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to team at 646 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:17,600 Speaker 1: Gingishtree sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll 647 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,000 Speaker 1: go to Apple Podcasts and both rate us with five 648 00:30:20,040 --> 00:30:22,880 Speaker 1: stars and give us a review so others can learn 649 00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,840 Speaker 1: what it's all about. Right now, listeners of news World 650 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,160 Speaker 1: can sign up for my three free weekly columns at 651 00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:33,480 Speaker 1: gingrishtree sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Nute Gingrich. This 652 00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:34,320 Speaker 1: is Newtsworld.