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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow.

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Speaker 1: index futures are higher as investors await data that may

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Speaker 1: show hiring picked up pace last month. SNP EVENI futures

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Speaker 1: are up three points and Dow E mini futures up

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Speaker 1: thirty five NASDAC eveny futures up four teen. The decks

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Speaker 1: in Germany's up one per set ten your treasury that

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Speaker 1: will change you at one point eight three percent. Nimex

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Speaker 1: screwd Oola three tenths percent or ten cents to thirty

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Speaker 1: four sixties seven. A barrel comex gold is up six

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Speaker 1: tenths percent or seven dollars eighty cents to twelve sixty six.

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Speaker 1: And ounce the euro a dollar oh nine eight three

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Speaker 1: again one third team points seven nine And that's a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike. Oh thank you, Karen.

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Speaker 1: I thought Tom, you were you all right over there?

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Speaker 1: You're you're watching the you're watching the Lula headlines. We

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Speaker 1: should note the Brazilian police detaining the former president of Brazil,

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Speaker 1: Louisia Nascio Lula da Silva UH, part of their corruption probe,

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Speaker 1: and headlines crossing the Bloomberg terminal point out that the

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Speaker 1: Brazilian real has rallied sharply. On the news it was

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Speaker 1: two point eight percent higher, now two point two percent higher.

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Speaker 1: So that is something we will keep an eye on

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Speaker 1: throughout the morning. Um, see what the reaction is there.

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Speaker 1: Robert Gordon is with us now, nice enough to come

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Speaker 1: all the way from Chicago Northwestern University to join us.

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Speaker 1: His book The Rise and Fall of American Growth is

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Speaker 1: my book of the year so far, and I think

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Speaker 1: it's probably gonna last throughout the year as that because

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Speaker 1: it is a terrific history of American productivity and progress

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Speaker 1: and how the period from about eighty in nineteen forty

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Speaker 1: was the most transformative perhaps in America in human history.

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Speaker 1: We went from living in very poorly heated, unweathered dark

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Speaker 1: houses UH and using outhouses to in the modern life

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Speaker 1: we live today and how that changed society and economics.

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Speaker 1: UM it is. It is a fascinating book because it

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Speaker 1: really lays out what it takes to raise living standards. Well,

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Speaker 1: we had a uh enormous scope of human experience changed

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Speaker 1: unalterably by the inventions that started in late nineteenth century

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Speaker 1: and continued into the twentieth century. UM And if you

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Speaker 1: just think about the house completely isolated in eighteen seventy

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Speaker 1: by connected five different ways to the outside with electricity, gas, telephone,

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Speaker 1: running water, and waste disposal. That made an unalterable difference

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Speaker 1: in the lives of notch us the men who went

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Speaker 1: off to go to work, but the women who stayed

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Speaker 1: home and took care of things. Back in the eighteen eighties,

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Speaker 1: women were carrying literally tons of water per year into

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Speaker 1: the house, and all that water had to be carried

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Speaker 1: out of the house. Just running water itself was an

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Speaker 1: amazing invention. We had electricity, the internal combustion engine, the

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Speaker 1: conquest of infectious diseases, the conquest of infant mortality. In

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Speaker 1: eighteen ninety more than twenty percent of babies died within

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Speaker 1: the first year of birth, and by nineteen fifty that

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Speaker 1: was down to one percent. Those are the kinds of

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Speaker 1: changes that can only happen once. We went from a

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Speaker 1: rural society with only twenty five urban in the eighteen

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Speaker 1: seventy two. By nineteen seventy we were seventy urban, and

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Speaker 1: we know that people in cities are much more productive

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Speaker 1: than they are in the farm. Well, we only have

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Speaker 1: a short time with you today, so let me jump

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Speaker 1: ahead and ask you what you see from here on out.

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Speaker 1: You're more pessimistic about productivity growth. Well, what I see

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Speaker 1: is that we had a second big wave of productivity

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Speaker 1: growth UH, the so called dot com era of the

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Speaker 1: late ninety nineties and early two thousand's when all of

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Speaker 1: the UH inventions that change the way America does business

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Speaker 1: in offices were unalterably changed, from the world of paper

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Speaker 1: and typewriters and file cabinets to the world of flat screens,

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Speaker 1: search engines and the world that we know now. But

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Speaker 1: that was all pretty much in place by two thousand

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Speaker 1: and five. What's the great puzzle is why productivity growth

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Speaker 1: has been so slow over the last five or six years,

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Speaker 1: less than one percent, only about half a percent, And

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Speaker 1: in my view, that's because we're pretty much doing things

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Speaker 1: the way we did uh ten years ago. We have

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Speaker 1: digested the real payoff of the computer for business productivity.

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Speaker 1: I want to go back. I would I would rip

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Speaker 1: up the script and do what Mike's doing, which is

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Speaker 1: go forward. But Professor Gordon, it has been such an

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Speaker 1: interesting and some would say distressing week for our American politics,

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Speaker 1: whatever anybody's view on it. Thank God. On page two eleven,

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Speaker 1: you save the day James McGregor, Burns of Williams College

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Speaker 1: and his Vineyard of Liberty stopped the world with the

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Speaker 1: discussion of the day Adams and Jefferson died together four

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Speaker 1: of eighteen. You cite that same magisterial day for America.

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Speaker 1: Where do we get back to that spirit, whether it

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Speaker 1: was a founding fathers or the early industrial age of

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Speaker 1: the eighteen twenties, How do we get back to that

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Speaker 1: versus what we've witnessed over the last four weeks. Well,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to talk about politics except to say

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Speaker 1: that I've heard extravagant promises about achieving economic growth through

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Speaker 1: tax cuts that primarily or aimed at reducing the taxes

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Speaker 1: of the wealthy. And I think what we should remember

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Speaker 1: is that there is the top one percent in the

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Speaker 1: United States that have been extremely fortunate to be the

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Speaker 1: beneficiaries of the computer aid UM and what we need

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Speaker 1: is to find a way of balancing out our society.

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Speaker 1: Instead of a few winners and a lot of people

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Speaker 1: stagnating UH suffering from the slow growth and productivity, we

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Speaker 1: need to have a way of um improving life for

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Speaker 1: the middle in the bottom And I put my primary

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Speaker 1: emphasis on preschool education. We have in our country an

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Speaker 1: enormous vocabulary gap of people are arriving in kindergarten when

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Speaker 1: you compare the poverty population with the middle and the

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Speaker 1: upper UH income students UM and we need a concerted

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Speaker 1: effort to join together as a country and try to

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Speaker 1: deal with the disadvantages that so many of our new

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Speaker 1: children are new next generation are growing up. With one

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Speaker 1: quick question, how much we just have a thirty seconds here,

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Speaker 1: But how much does a difference as a president make

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Speaker 1: to the economy. I think the the the difference can

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Speaker 1: be very substantial if you have the president and the

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Speaker 1: Congress in the same party. Therefore, I expect that if

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Speaker 1: we have the Democratic president elected in will continue to

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Speaker 1: have a stalemate. I think if we have a Republican

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Speaker 1: with control of both houses of Parliament will see the

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Speaker 1: major changes now. For many of us, they may be

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Speaker 1: changes moving backwards, the repeal of Obamacare leaving people without

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Speaker 1: medical insurance. UH, tax cuts for the rich as was

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Speaker 1: practiced by George Bush without any achievement of economic growth.

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Speaker 1: By the way, Robert Gordon, Northwestern University, The Rise and

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Speaker 1: Fall of American Growth terrific book. I urge everyone to

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Speaker 1: read it. Thanks for stopping by today. This is Bumberg surveillance. Okay,

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