WEBVTT - Surveillance: J&J Pause Impact Unclear, Bernstein Says 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:09.200 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:13.200 with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Brownwitz Jailey. We bring you 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:18.600 insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.840 Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot Com, 0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:30.600 and of course on the Bloomberg terminal. Right now, from 0:00:30.600 --> 0:00:33.680 the White House, the economist Jared Bernstein, of course a 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:37.480 member of the White House Council on Economic Advisors. Dr Bernstein, 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:40.080 what is so charming about your work out of Hunter 0:00:40.200 --> 0:00:45.080 College in Colombia, as you've always gone for the societal 0:00:45.360 --> 0:00:51.720 effect of America. How does the Biden administration sustain the 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:56.520 confidence of society given the shock of these these false 0:00:56.560 --> 0:01:00.880 steps in our in our clearing from the pandemic. Yeah, 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:03.840 it's a it's an important question. And I do want 0:01:03.840 --> 0:01:07.320 to make clear that while you appropriately called me Dr Bernstein, 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:10.280 and I'm not a medical doctor, and uh, we have 0:01:10.600 --> 0:01:15.759 a deep staff of medical authorities and public health officials 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:20.280 who are just pouring over this information. Uh. On your question, 0:01:20.640 --> 0:01:23.600 which again it's it's always a joy to talk to 0:01:23.680 --> 0:01:26.160 someone who kind of knows the history of what we're 0:01:26.160 --> 0:01:29.880 talking about here. Um, if you look at the polling 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:36.680 on the infrastructure proposal, north of seventy of Americans are supportive, 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:39.959 and more than fifty of Republicans are. And the reason 0:01:40.120 --> 0:01:41.960 is is when it comes to the fact that there 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:46.080 are four hundred thousand schools and child care centers where 0:01:46.160 --> 0:01:49.720 lead leeches into the water. There's thirty million people who 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:53.320 don't have access to to fast broadband. Uh, there are 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:58.400 essential workers facing poverty. Uh. These are issues that are 0:01:58.400 --> 0:02:02.360 well understood by so many people outside of the Beltway 0:02:02.400 --> 0:02:05.000 in terms of their necessity. I'm not just talking about voters. 0:02:05.120 --> 0:02:08.240 I'm also talking about governors and mayors who understand the 0:02:08.320 --> 0:02:11.799 cost of disinvestment in infrastructure. Jared, what does a change 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:14.000 in the transition of a hundred days or whatever the 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:17.280 number of days is from the Trump administrations take on 0:02:17.560 --> 0:02:21.680 science from where you sit versus a Biden administration. This morning, 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:23.880 there's going to be a press conference, I believe at 0:02:23.880 --> 0:02:27.840 ten am. Tell us the science that you observe. It's 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:33.920 six Pennsylvania Avenue. Yeah. From the moment that President Biden 0:02:34.000 --> 0:02:38.720 took office. UH, you know, facts were very much uh 0:02:39.000 --> 0:02:43.239 back in the mix, and science is a huge part 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:47.119 of that. UM. Obviously Dr Faucci has continued to play 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:50.760 a key role. But this has always been a fact 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:55.280 in science driven area of inquiry for for our administration. 0:02:55.680 --> 0:02:59.680 And that's precisely what's occurring right now as we speak. 0:02:59.760 --> 0:03:01.560 On not going to lean into it because you know, 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:04.760 I want to stay in my economics lane, but that's 0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:07.320 the fact of the case. That's the responsible thing to do, 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:09.359 and we'd expect nothing less from you, sir. But we 0:03:09.400 --> 0:03:11.520 do have to talk about the economy and the reopening 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:15.320 effort as it bears to the context around the vaccination 0:03:15.360 --> 0:03:17.519 effort as well. So John, let's go there. Does this 0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:21.720 jeopardize the vaccination timeline of the administration of potentially reopening 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:24.360 this economy in any way, shape or form. It is 0:03:24.400 --> 0:03:27.800 a totally fair question to which I don't know the answer, 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:30.600 and I don't think anyone else does either. I think 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:33.760 before we can make the kinds of timing determinations that 0:03:34.080 --> 0:03:38.160 you're asking about, we have to understand how disruptive this is, 0:03:38.200 --> 0:03:40.760 and we just don't know yet. It is the case, 0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:43.040 as you well know. Again, I think the rescue plan, 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:46.240 I don't think we know the rescue plan UH played 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:50.280 a key role in producing and distributing vaccines in helping 0:03:50.360 --> 0:03:53.920 us really accelerate the curve of getting shots and arms. 0:03:54.040 --> 0:03:56.400 A hundred and fifty million shots and arms a hundred 0:03:56.440 --> 0:03:58.560 fifty million checks out the door. So that that's the 0:03:58.600 --> 0:04:02.040 rescue plan and action. But it's a fair question to 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:04.160 which we don't have an answer yet, and it wouldn't 0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:07.560 be prudent for me to speculate given the information I 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:09.760 just say, the lack of information I have at this point. 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:12.080 It would also did something Counse didn't it. It It feeled 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:14.160 a big debate about inflation. And we'll get that data 0:04:14.160 --> 0:04:16.960 in about thirty three minutes, sir, So let's talk about that, 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:19.320 because I imagine that was really the impetus to hear 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:23.120 from the White House today around the inflation data in America. 0:04:23.400 --> 0:04:25.640 I've been asking this question continually, we all have on 0:04:25.680 --> 0:04:29.320 this program. The base case the consensus from you, Jared 0:04:29.400 --> 0:04:32.400 is transitory from the Federal Reserve transit tree. How would 0:04:32.440 --> 0:04:35.719 you know if you're wrong? Yeah, so that's a great question. 0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:37.919 And if you look at the document that myself and 0:04:37.960 --> 0:04:40.480 my colleague Journey Todeski wrote yesterday, it's on the white 0:04:40.480 --> 0:04:43.520 House Blog. We had a section that's gotten a little 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:46.200 bit less attention than the base effects and the pent 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:50.600 up supply issues, the transitory issues. We talked about inflationary 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:55.800 expectations for long term inflationary uh for for understanding of 0:04:55.800 --> 0:04:59.719 a long term of inflations trajectory. You really it's really 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:02.640 an an expectations game. And one of the things we 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:05.720 put in there people may not have had their coffee yet, 0:05:05.760 --> 0:05:09.760 so I apologize if I'm waxing too statistical. Is a 0:05:09.960 --> 0:05:14.000 something called the Common Index of Inflation Expectations. This is 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:17.760 a kind of a blending of over twenty different indicators 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:21.479 of inflation expectations. We borrowed the technology from the Federal Reserve, 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:25.440 and it does show that expectations have been rising, but 0:05:25.680 --> 0:05:28.720 from historically low levels to more normal ones. So I 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:31.400 think that kind of an index, which incorporates so many 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:34.880 different household survey measures, market measures, is the right way 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:39.560 to think about future pressures, whether whether whether the anchor 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:44.359 maintains or is nudged. What would you say, though, Jared, 0:05:44.520 --> 0:05:47.760 to people who pushed back on your idea of transitory 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:50.760 and say we're doing something different. This is an experiment 0:05:50.800 --> 0:05:54.640 of helicopter money, dropping cash into people's bank accounts while 0:05:54.720 --> 0:05:59.880 keeping rates very low. What's your response, Well, in fact, 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:03.280 we've done this sort of thing before, and in fact, 0:06:03.960 --> 0:06:08.160 not only did we see unemployment full to fifty year 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:12.560 lows with a fiscal stimulus that was highly procyclical in 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:16.440 the last expansion, but inflation continued to miss its target 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:19.960 from the downside. So I think it's really not necessarily 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:22.480 mystery or magic, and you simply have to look at 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:25.479 the indicators. We are, as we tried to express in 0:06:25.520 --> 0:06:30.400 that blog yesterday, you know, pretty obsessively monitoring, engaging UH 0:06:30.440 --> 0:06:34.000 the indicators to try to understand the dynamics between heat 0:06:34.279 --> 0:06:37.159 which we expect, whether it's the rescue plan or the 0:06:37.240 --> 0:06:40.520 job's plan, Helping families and businesses get the relief that 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:43.680 they need, Helping states and localities get the resources they 0:06:43.720 --> 0:06:46.640 need safely reopening schools. All of that is going to 0:06:46.720 --> 0:06:49.520 contribute to economic growth, and it's going to have some 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:52.640 impact on prices as we're seeing. But the key point 0:06:52.720 --> 0:06:57.040 is distinguishing between heat and overheat, and the overheat story, 0:06:57.120 --> 0:06:59.800 which we argue is something that we're going to completely 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:04.640 watch carefully, but is a lower risk probability than uh. 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:07.680 The importance of the other measures I've talked about that 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:09.560 has to be gauged as well, and I talked about 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:12.200 how I believe it should be done. There's a question 0:07:12.200 --> 0:07:14.640 about confidence to about the confidence to go out and 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:18.200 spend at one point eight trillion dollar cash pile. How 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:22.560 concerned are you about the issues around vaccines affecting that 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:25.920 confidence and slowing growth more materially? What is going to 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:29.200 be the measure for you on that front. We're gonna 0:07:29.280 --> 0:07:32.560 have to continue to look as we do at not 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:38.360 just the monthly and the quarterly UH data on consumer spending, 0:07:38.680 --> 0:07:42.680 on travel, on seating at restaurants. UM, We're gonna have 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:45.400 to look at the daily and the weekly implications of this. 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:49.160 And I think that's been actually a real advance in 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:53.840 in economic UH study in this in this period, which 0:07:53.960 --> 0:07:58.040 is the availability of very high frequency data that we 0:07:58.120 --> 0:08:00.000 now have enough to link it up to the more 0:08:00.320 --> 0:08:03.120 UH traditional indicators, and so we can know that the 0:08:03.120 --> 0:08:06.240 credit card data gives us information about consumer spending and 0:08:06.400 --> 0:08:10.160 what it was showing was increased confidence, increased re engaging 0:08:10.160 --> 0:08:12.960 with commerce. UH and UH you know the kinds of 0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:17.240 price effects that we've been discussing so far UH so 0:08:17.240 --> 0:08:20.600 so far, UH, we we like what we're seeing in 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:23.280 in that regard, John, ifor one as a journalist, appreciate 0:08:23.400 --> 0:08:25.880 the increased transparency. We've caught up many times together. Now 0:08:26.080 --> 0:08:27.960 over the last several months, you put out that blog 0:08:27.960 --> 0:08:30.480 closed on inflation as well. I do you wonder, and 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:32.760 this is a delicate question, whether you're worried about losing 0:08:32.960 --> 0:08:35.720 control of the narrative around inflation over the next comple 0:08:35.760 --> 0:08:40.360 of months. I don't know. I mean, I I don't 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:43.400 think it's really a narrative. I guess I don't really 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:46.240 think about it in sort of control of the narratives story, 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:49.040 And maybe I should. I think about it much more 0:08:49.120 --> 0:08:53.080 in terms of the substance of the pressures on prices. Uh, 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:56.800 and just speaking, you know, honestly and transparently and truthfully 0:08:57.080 --> 0:09:00.679 about what we judge to be the case. Um. The 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:04.280 inflation dynamics are something I have studied for many decades, 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:06.320 and you know, I would argue that, you know, I 0:09:06.400 --> 0:09:08.439 was one, not not the only, not the only one. 0:09:08.480 --> 0:09:10.520 I was one of the folks who argued that the 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:13.080 natural rate of unemployment, you know, it was really many 0:09:13.200 --> 0:09:16.680 percentage points lower than was previously thought, and that helped 0:09:16.760 --> 0:09:19.079 us get to a place where we were having a 0:09:19.160 --> 0:09:22.560 much more equitable and much more racially rewarding job market. 0:09:22.559 --> 0:09:25.680 When we got to truly full employment, and as we predicted, 0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:29.280 inflation pressures were quiescent. So I think we've learned a 0:09:29.280 --> 0:09:32.439 lot about this area of macro policy substantively, and I 0:09:32.480 --> 0:09:34.880 think we just have to continue investigating it. Jared, there's 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:36.880 a lot of fancy talk here and inflation, and we 0:09:36.920 --> 0:09:39.600 can partition and have a bow tie analysis. You know 0:09:39.679 --> 0:09:42.840 what it's about a bag of groceries. I've had more 0:09:42.960 --> 0:09:46.280 comments and viewers and listeners in the last forty eight 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:49.600 hours on food inflation then I've had in the last 0:09:49.640 --> 0:09:53.600 three years. Is it here to stay? Yeah? This is 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:56.199 one of the ways economists can really piss off normal 0:09:56.360 --> 0:10:00.000 You got that right, and you're leaving the charge so shape. 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:03.080 But tell us about food inflation. You know, when I 0:10:03.120 --> 0:10:06.000 talked to my wife about core inflation, I explained that 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:09.920 that leaves out food and gas prices. She just shakes 0:10:09.920 --> 0:10:11.400 her head and looks at me, like, what the heck 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:14.000 are you talking about? But in fact, that is the 0:10:14.000 --> 0:10:18.040 gauge that economists and the Federal Reserve used to try 0:10:18.080 --> 0:10:21.160 to get at the underlying signal because food and energy 0:10:21.160 --> 0:10:24.000 are much more volatile energy particularly, but food as well 0:10:24.240 --> 0:10:26.640 is very much a global market. So if we want 0:10:26.679 --> 0:10:29.240 to understand domestic price pressures, we really do have to 0:10:29.240 --> 0:10:33.080 look at the core look in terms of food inflation. Uh, 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:35.280 this is some of the sectual dynamics that again we 0:10:35.320 --> 0:10:39.480 wrote about yesterday, and we do expect to see pressures 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:43.480 in some face to face services, say restaurants, food away 0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:46.480 from home. But I don't mean to interrupt, but we're 0:10:46.480 --> 0:10:49.480 gonna run out of time. How is the Biden administration 0:10:49.559 --> 0:10:51.880 and for that matter, how are the elites of Washington 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:56.079 going to react to four percent plus food inflation? Lisa A. 0:10:56.160 --> 0:11:00.640 Bramowitz is crushed by four percent plus food and got 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:04.400 that right. Yeah, Well, first of all, you know, we're 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:07.720 not gonna I'm not gonna lean into the federal reserves 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:10.640 lane because it's uh, it's their job to think about, 0:11:11.240 --> 0:11:15.080 you know, these sectoral impacts on prices. I think where 0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:17.720 we're coming from. We have to look at the American 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.720 people's nutritional needs and make sure they're meeting them. And 0:11:20.800 --> 0:11:24.880 both in the Rescue Plan and in forthcoming ideas that 0:11:24.920 --> 0:11:27.520 you're gonna hear about in the Family's Plan. Um, we 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:31.560 are taking very seriously, UH the ability of people to 0:11:31.600 --> 0:11:34.760 meet their nutritional needs. It's something that we think about 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:37.440 a lot. We follow the Pulse survey, which shows how 0:11:37.480 --> 0:11:41.280 many people even now as UH we as the economy 0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:44.400 very clearly recovers from the pandemic induced for session, we 0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:48.080 have too many people facing nutritional shortfalls, and we have 0:11:48.440 --> 0:11:52.280 a really effective program UH SNAP are formerly called food Stamps, 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:55.440 which meets those needs. And and we've we've extended that 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:57.480 program and the rescue plan and some of the prior 0:11:57.520 --> 0:12:00.640 fiscal packages, and we will continue to make sure that 0:12:00.800 --> 0:12:06.840 SNAP meets people's nutritional needs. Jared always appreciate kailed that 0:12:07.200 --> 0:12:10.120 Jared Fernstein, White House Council of Economic Advice as men. 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:12.560 But joining us from the White House and important conversation 0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:20.240 right now a joy. On very short notice. Peter Hotez 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:23.480 joins this Dean of National School of Tropical Medicine, Baylor 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:27.120 College of Medicine. Dr Hotez has just been such a 0:12:27.200 --> 0:12:32.080 support to us on clear thinking through this pandemic. Peter Hotez, 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:38.240 somewhere buried in your distinguished and extinguished CV is hematology. 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:43.040 It is ignored by so many in virology and bacteriology. 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:46.920 And as the effect of all this upon our blood, 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:52.240 give us a quick synopsis of the hematology of blood 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:57.400 clots to these vaccines. Well, Tom, we don't know the 0:12:57.400 --> 0:13:00.160 full story yet, but there is an emerging story and 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:02.800 it's coming out in papers like the New England Journal 0:13:02.840 --> 0:13:04.880 of Medicine last week and others. And it has to 0:13:04.920 --> 0:13:08.000 do with the fact that the two major AD no 0:13:08.160 --> 0:13:12.960 virus based vaccines, and that's astra Zeneca and J and 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:17.120 J and not the mr Anda vaccines, not the other technologies. Um, 0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:19.960 the two, the two major AD no virus vaccines by 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:23.440 the pharma companies, seem to be inducing an immune response 0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:26.640 and in some mechanism that we don't fully understand, that's 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:31.520 activating an antibody response to platelets which are associated with 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:35.079 blood clotting, and this is causing platelet activation and then 0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:38.280 these thrombotic events which unfortunately are happening in the in 0:13:38.360 --> 0:13:42.640 the veins draining the brain. That's causing cerebral thrombosis, which 0:13:42.679 --> 0:13:45.280 is a very severe and life threatening conditions. So to 0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:48.679 be clear here, this is the idea of a vaccine 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:52.520 coming over into a cardiac event. As you say, the 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:56.400 venus system coming out of the brain being blocked. The 0:13:56.520 --> 0:13:59.520 number six out of six point eight million. Does that 0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:04.320 give you pause or is this just a risk at hand? Well, 0:14:04.520 --> 0:14:06.199 those are the numbers coming out of the US for 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:09.160 the J and J vaccine, for the astra zeneca adona 0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:11.600 virus vaccine, it's about one and a hundred thousand to 0:14:11.640 --> 0:14:14.840 maybe one and two hundred thousand, So they are rare 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:18.160 events um and and what countries are going to do 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:21.440 about this will depend on the availability of other vaccines. 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:24.160 You know, the US, we've got a pretty big portfolio. 0:14:24.200 --> 0:14:27.240 We've got two m R and A vaccines from from 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:31.120 a Visor and Maderana. We have a novavax vaccine coming along. 0:14:31.160 --> 0:14:33.920 They may make a different decision than a country that's 0:14:34.080 --> 0:14:37.280 entirely dependent on ad no virus vaccines. It's it's going 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:41.240 to be risk versus benefit. But you know, it's the problem. 0:14:41.280 --> 0:14:43.360 The other problem, of course, is this is not happening 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:45.800 in a vacuum. It's happening in the background of a 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:50.560 very aggressive anti vaccine lobby that's piling on now globally, 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:53.720 and so that could easily derail a lot of efforts. 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:57.800 I'm particularly concerned about African and Latin American countries which 0:14:58.200 --> 0:15:01.520 backed themselves into a corner and um in the sense 0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:04.960 that they became totally dependent on these add no virus 0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:07.800 vectored vaccines. In some cases this is also true the 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:11.320 GAMA lay a Russian vaccine which is also an adnavirus vaccine, 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:14.120 but we don't have any information about that. So so 0:15:14.160 --> 0:15:17.480 the impact, especially on the world's low and middle income countries, 0:15:17.480 --> 0:15:20.120 could be really devastating, and I'm really upset about what's 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:22.360 going on. Dr Hotez, this is where I wanted to go, 0:15:22.520 --> 0:15:25.840 the communication of some of the details as we learn 0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:28.480 about potential side effects. Do you think that the FDA, 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:32.080 that the CDC UH, that the European health officials should 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:35.120 have waited before disclosing some of this information, or do 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.200 you think that it's important to shore up the feeling 0:15:37.480 --> 0:15:41.480 of full transparency. You know, it's it's you could argue 0:15:41.520 --> 0:15:43.520 it either way. I think they made the right call 0:15:43.680 --> 0:15:46.200 because you know, one of the things that's really important 0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:48.400 is to reassure the public, both in Europe and the 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:52.600 United States and globally that the regulatory bodies have the 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:56.920 pharmaco vigilance, the monitoring in hand and basically I mean 0:15:57.080 --> 0:15:59.960 some pay in some ways the American people in Europe 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:03.840 and should be reassured that are there are regulatory systems, 0:16:03.840 --> 0:16:06.600 are global governance of vaccines is intact and can pick 0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:08.960 up rare events that wouldn't necessarily show up in the 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:12.280 Phase three trials. So you know, it's a glass half full, 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:15.640 half empty. I think they made the right call and 0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:17.680 and now it's a matter of how you navigate the 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:20.600 next few weeks because we don't have a lot of alternatives, 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:23.160 especially from many countries. Dr Hotel is going back to 0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:26.520 your other point about the developing world that potentially relies 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:30.920 on these non mRNA vaccines. How much do you think 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:34.800 that these types of communications, these news flashes end up 0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:39.840 deterring that effort to vaccinate the developing world. Yeah, I 0:16:39.840 --> 0:16:42.280 think it's a big deal. You know, I've been up against, 0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:45.600 going up against the anti vaccine lobby for for years 0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:47.640 and years because I have a daughter with autism and 0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:50.440 I wrote a book called Vaccines Did Not Cause Rachel's Autism, 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:52.840 which made me public enemy number one. So I know 0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.680 what they're capable of, and for years I've been saying, look, 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:57.800 don't think this is going to stay walled off to 0:16:57.880 --> 0:16:59.800 North America and Europe. This thing is going to go 0:17:00.000 --> 0:17:02.840 lobal and it has. We're starting to see now those 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:06.560 same anti vaccine messages that's coming out of the us 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:10.159 UH and now we're finding it in Africa and Latin America. 0:17:10.200 --> 0:17:13.200 And remember what the other reason we're seeing this is 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:16.320 the Putin government has this has been reported by US 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:19.040 and British intelligence has been piling on with this whole 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:22.960 systematic program of what's been called weaponized health communications, trying 0:17:23.000 --> 0:17:27.919 to destabilize democracies with anti vaccine, anti science messages and 0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:32.200 targeting scientists. So this is this is another big issue. Peter, 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:34.520 give us an update on India, because the numbers there are, 0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:37.199 the mathematics is not good right now. Maybe not as 0:17:37.240 --> 0:17:40.240 bad as Brazil, but it's there. You mentioned Gamma lay 0:17:40.280 --> 0:17:42.960 or the spot Nick vaccine as well. Would you take 0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:48.080 the spot Nick vaccine? Well, not if I had other alternatives. 0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:50.680 And the reason is because that vaccine has not gone 0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:54.639 through stringent regulatory a stringent regulatory authorities but defined by 0:17:54.640 --> 0:17:56.600 the w h OH. It's not gone through w h 0:17:56.600 --> 0:17:59.400 O pre qualification, so there are a lot of unknowns 0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:01.439 about it now in India. What we're doing is are 0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:05.760 we're accelerating our vaccine with biological ian Hyderabad. They're preparing 0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:08.560 one point two billion doses. This is an older school 0:18:08.600 --> 0:18:11.800 technology or combin and protein vaccine that so far as 0:18:11.840 --> 0:18:14.639 looking really good and hopefully that might fill some of 0:18:14.680 --> 0:18:17.760 the gaps in Africa and Latin America and globally. Short 0:18:17.800 --> 0:18:20.879 notice Peter Hotel this morning after this news on Johnson 0:18:20.920 --> 0:18:24.400 and Johnson. He is dean of the National School Tropical Medicine, 0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:31.560 Baylor College. I'm pose and joy this now paying US 0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:33.919 an institute President, Adam. Let's just start that set the 0:18:33.920 --> 0:18:36.440 stage for US for its inflation print in about two 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:38.480 as in thirty minutes. What are you looking for set? 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:41.639 Thanks for having me, Johnson. I think I'm looking for 0:18:41.680 --> 0:18:45.439 a lot of US signifying nothing, because this inflation print 0:18:46.119 --> 0:18:50.200 is really about technical things like base effects. Just when 0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:53.120 you bounce back from the kind of shutdown we had, 0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:56.440 you were just going to end up with readings of inflation. 0:18:56.520 --> 0:18:59.640 You're also going to have these short term bottlenecks. As 0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:03.600 you LESA, we're joking about the word transitory. The transitory 0:19:03.680 --> 0:19:07.560 issue is really going to come in two. That's where 0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:10.040 the real FED debate is. That's where the focus should 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:13.560 be and Frankly, that's where Jared Bernstein, representing the White 0:19:13.560 --> 0:19:15.920 House should be talking. The fact that there's going to 0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:18.600 be some inflation for the next few months showing up 0:19:18.600 --> 0:19:22.880 in non core which which our headline, which Tom points out, 0:19:23.280 --> 0:19:25.760 is not going to worry. You're right that the Fed 0:19:25.920 --> 0:19:28.359 is acting like they're worried. They're trying to get ahead 0:19:28.400 --> 0:19:32.240 of this, but people shouldn't worry. The inflation study that 0:19:32.280 --> 0:19:35.600 we have is partitioned and impose it into services and 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:41.119 goods inflation. Is that a correct study. It's a correct 0:19:41.160 --> 0:19:44.040 first cut, but it's not a sufficient cut. Tom. As 0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:47.439 you know, Jim Stock from Harvard and various people in 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:52.200 the Federal Reserve System have been looking at breakdowns inflation 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:56.200 into bigger components, um, excuse me, smaller components that still 0:19:56.240 --> 0:19:59.720 significant ones. I think that the two key components we 0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:04.560 look at are, as Jonathan mentioned, wages, because that's ultimately 0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:06.840 what we care about, both in the sense of its 0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:09.160 own terms and in the sense that that's the one 0:20:09.200 --> 0:20:12.679 thing that does lead to future headline inflation. And the 0:20:12.720 --> 0:20:15.040 other one, which I've been emphasizing for the last couple 0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:21.440 of weeks publicly, is healthcare inflation. That healthcare is the economy. 0:20:21.680 --> 0:20:24.400 It's one of the services, whether it is genuinely pent 0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:27.879 up demand people who put off procedures they considered elective 0:20:27.920 --> 0:20:32.320 amidst the pandemic, and which there will be a shortage 0:20:32.560 --> 0:20:35.879 of available supply, so either they'll get rationed by people 0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:39.159 waiting a lot longer or crisis will rise. So to me, 0:20:39.280 --> 0:20:42.160 it's wages and healthcare of the subcomponents you really want 0:20:42.160 --> 0:20:44.399 to focus on. When do we know whether the wage 0:20:44.400 --> 0:20:47.480 inflation that we're starting to hear about with some labor shortages, 0:20:47.800 --> 0:20:50.879 whether it's transitory as well, or whether that has longer 0:20:50.960 --> 0:20:54.200 lasting legs. It's a really good question, Lisa, and there's 0:20:54.240 --> 0:20:57.920 no simple answer because wages, as we know, have been 0:20:57.960 --> 0:21:01.960 getting compressed for decades. Now. I don't mean there's been 0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:05.080 no growth, but the share of GDP growth going to 0:21:05.200 --> 0:21:09.359 wages has been way down versus preceding decades. So there's 0:21:09.400 --> 0:21:13.360 some way you could have wages growth without it necessarily 0:21:13.400 --> 0:21:17.000 turning into inflation if basically workers get to take back 0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:20.920 some of the money the capital has been holding onto um. 0:21:20.960 --> 0:21:23.880 And that's hard for the FED to discern the difference, 0:21:23.960 --> 0:21:26.520 both because you don't get the data until later and 0:21:26.600 --> 0:21:29.800 because it looks very political, so there's no easy call 0:21:29.880 --> 0:21:32.360 on that. I'm afraid Dr Posy. We like to get 0:21:32.359 --> 0:21:34.640 out in front of the zeit guy. Sometimes we succeed, 0:21:34.760 --> 0:21:37.439 sometimes we fail. Right now I'm going to succeed and 0:21:37.520 --> 0:21:41.080 anticipate your essay and Foreign Affairs Magazine folks, this will 0:21:41.119 --> 0:21:44.240 be out pretty much any day here for the May issue. 0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:47.040 And you speak of the nostalgia. All of us have. 0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:53.000 John Farrell's incredibly nostalgic. Lisa Bramos just based in nostalgia, 0:21:53.240 --> 0:21:56.480 and we're all doing it about trying to find in America, 0:21:56.720 --> 0:22:00.919 trying to find an Atlantic policy from another time and place. 0:22:01.480 --> 0:22:03.919 What does it mean for our viewers and our listeners 0:22:04.200 --> 0:22:08.399 as we wax nostalgic? Thank you for citing my forthcoming 0:22:08.480 --> 0:22:11.359 article Tom and Foreign Affairs. What I mean when I 0:22:11.400 --> 0:22:15.280 talk about the price of nostalgia is this fixation that 0:22:15.400 --> 0:22:21.280 American politicians have on heavy metal, on men bashing machines, 0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:26.240 running running tough fisheries, all these sorts of visuals that 0:22:26.359 --> 0:22:30.680 you see on the Bruce Springsteen jeep commercials about what 0:22:30.960 --> 0:22:33.480 is the important good way to have a good middle 0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:37.920 class job. And it's nostalgia because it's misplaced because those 0:22:38.000 --> 0:22:40.480 kinds of jobs, there's only so many of those. Even 0:22:40.520 --> 0:22:43.320 in the best of times, you're only gonna be able 0:22:43.359 --> 0:22:46.280 to add a couple percent to the workforce doing that, 0:22:46.560 --> 0:22:48.920 and it's not going to help the rest of the economy. 0:22:48.960 --> 0:22:52.359 And it just further ignores frankly, women and people of color, 0:22:52.440 --> 0:22:56.840 who are predominantly in slow wage services jobs among the 0:22:57.200 --> 0:23:02.280