1 00:00:00,640 --> 00:00:10,640 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,640 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,800 Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then rounoo with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,840 --> 00:00:21,160 Speaker 1: Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:21,520 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 1: Watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 2: Thank you for being with us here on the Thursday 7 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 2: edition of Balance of Power. You made it to Little Friday. 8 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:32,400 Speaker 2: Thank you for being here on Bloomberg Radio, on the 9 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 2: satellite and on YouTube. Where you can watch us live 10 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 2: right now search Bloomberg Business News Live. We've got the 11 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:41,199 Speaker 2: studio lit here in Washington and would love to have 12 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: you along as the candidates head for the Swing States. Hey, 13 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,320 Speaker 2: happy Halloween. By the way, do you have your reflector 14 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:51,000 Speaker 2: vest handy? I had mine ready when I came in 15 00:00:51,040 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 2: earlier today. Of course, that's not why Donald Trump was 16 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,280 Speaker 2: wearing one last night. Did you see him in the 17 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 2: garbage truck. We'll talk about this more as the whole 18 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 2: garbage flap continues. Are we gonna get four days out 19 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 2: of this thing? You know, it's silly season when stories 20 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 2: like these are driving the day, and it has a 21 00:01:06,000 --> 00:01:07,840 Speaker 2: lot to do with the fact that the polls are tied. 22 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 2: Another reason why the candidates are in the swing states 23 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 2: today out West, at least mostly swing states. Kamala Harris 24 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 2: leaving Wisconsin today to go to Phoenix to be in Reno, right, Arizona, Nevada, 25 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 2: Swing States, Las Vegas later tonight, Vegas Baby. Donald Trump 26 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 2: is strangely in Albuquerque. This is one that has been 27 00:01:28,400 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 2: a bit confounding to people because well, New Mexico is 28 00:01:31,000 --> 00:01:33,920 Speaker 2: not a swing state. You could argue that he's appealing 29 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 2: to the Latino voting block that has been at an 30 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 2: issue in this whole conversation about the word garbage, but 31 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 2: New Mexico does not appear to be up for grabs. 32 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 2: He will, however, be in Henderson, Nevada after that, Tim Walls, 33 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 2: Bucks County, Pennsylvania, Erie and Detroit. It's a pretty tight map. 34 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:55,200 Speaker 2: That's why we're back in these states every day. And 35 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 2: as we look at this nationally, we can get down 36 00:01:57,120 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 2: to the swing states. We do that every day here 37 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 2: one point two point race depending on where you look, 38 00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 2: same story nationally. In fact, it has dwindled to a 39 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 2: one point race based on research from IPSOS and as 40 00:02:10,400 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 2: I mentioned, Cliff Young, the President US Public Affairs at 41 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 2: Ipsos is with us right now in the studio. 42 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 3: Cliff, great to see you. Five days to go. Your 43 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 3: phone must be ringing. 44 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 4: Stretch run. Actually, my fitbit is buzzing right now. 45 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:22,120 Speaker 3: Okay. 46 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 2: Could I hope it has good news for you because 47 00:02:25,919 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 2: stress is running high right, Anxiety is running high, because 48 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,040 Speaker 2: uncertainty is running high, and it's only getting worse. 49 00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 3: It just couldn't be tighter, could it. 50 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 4: Yeah. What we're telling everyone is that basically it's a 51 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 4: fifty to fifty race. We think it's trending a bit Trump, 52 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,639 Speaker 4: but our level of conviction is very low. That's just 53 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 4: a fancy way of saying we don't know. 54 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, Well, the conviction aside. You are seeing a 55 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:54,880 Speaker 2: tightening and Donald Trump essentially closing the gap that we 56 00:02:54,960 --> 00:02:57,399 Speaker 2: saw with some of the exuberant following the change. 57 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 3: At the top of the ticket. Not a surprise, I 58 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:00,280 Speaker 3: suspect no. 59 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 4: We've been seeing this narrowing at the national level over 60 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 4: the last couple of weeks. We've seen the same in 61 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,680 Speaker 4: the swing states, where he's taken the lead in some 62 00:03:10,720 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 4: of them, where Harris was leading in all of them 63 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 4: at one point. We think it comes down to the 64 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:20,680 Speaker 4: critical issues inflation, inflation, inflation. He's more credible than Harris 65 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:23,640 Speaker 4: on that specific issue. That doesn't mean she's nestly going 66 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,320 Speaker 4: to lose, but I think that narrowing is because of 67 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 4: that a very efficient and efficacious campaign. 68 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:32,520 Speaker 2: Interesting, you wonder if we had different running mates, if 69 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 2: we had different opportunities, or if Kamal Airas had a 70 00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 2: longer run here, if these numbers might look any different. 71 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 3: But these are the numbers. This is the race. You 72 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 3: find most Americans as. 73 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 2: Well say they are prepared to accept the outcome. That's 74 00:03:45,480 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 2: a really important number here because we've also known that 75 00:03:48,840 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 2: a majority of Americans are pretty worried about violence breaking 76 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:51,640 Speaker 2: out around this. 77 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 5: Yeah. 78 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 4: I mean both those ideas are resting in people's minds. 79 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 4: On the one hand, they say that as Americans say 80 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 4: they would accept the results of the raise, but if 81 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,800 Speaker 4: you push them on it, they're very, very worried about 82 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 4: the about the situation post election. 83 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 2: Yes, right, tell us what you learn though, all Americans 84 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 2: eighty three percent, it's pretty big number. 85 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 4: It's a big number. I mean, you know, Americans are 86 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 4: they believe that there are rules you have to fillow. 87 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 4: The rules is that there's rules of conduct, and that 88 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 4: the loser should accept the results. But when you peel 89 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 4: that onion a way, as I was saying before, there's 90 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 4: a lot of trepidation, there's a lot of worried, there's 91 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 4: a big there's a lot of belief that the system 92 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 4: is not fair, it's rigged, and it's fraudulent. 93 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 2: I'd like to ask you about methodology because I'm hearing 94 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 2: more over the last couple of days that hey, maybe 95 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,359 Speaker 2: the sample is broken. We can only do so much 96 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 2: based on the electorate that we think we have in 97 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 2: the algorithms that we use. How do you treat your 98 00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 2: polls when you're trying to curve to make up for 99 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 2: holes one way or the other in your sample. 100 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 3: This is something that every pole does. 101 00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,600 Speaker 2: It's why we have a margin of error at least partly, right, 102 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 2: But how do how does it work? 103 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, there's a lot to impact there. So I 104 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 4: think there's two principle points that I make. The first is, 105 00:05:06,200 --> 00:05:09,279 Speaker 4: it's not just about having a robust sample of the population. 106 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 4: It's a robust sample of the population. 107 00:05:11,960 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 3: That will vote. 108 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 4: And so what we're trying to do is predict who 109 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:18,480 Speaker 4: will either show up on election day or who will 110 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:22,280 Speaker 4: vote early and that's a tricky issue. That's a challenge 111 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 4: that we've always had historically, right. The more recent challenge 112 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 4: has been we've missed Trump voters. We underestimated Trump the 113 00:05:30,520 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 4: Trump vote in twenty sixteen by three points, in twenty 114 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 4: twenty by three points. And the market, including its US, 115 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 4: has worked very hard to fill those holes to try 116 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:44,839 Speaker 4: to get at those mega Trump voters that otherwise wouldn't 117 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 4: participate in other things, including polls. We've done that both 118 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,000 Speaker 4: on the design side, trying to find where they are. 119 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 4: And there's this what we call post survey adjustments. We 120 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:56,840 Speaker 4: weight the data trying to correct for. 121 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 2: It after the red wave did not material realize did 122 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 2: that curve change again? When you look back to the 123 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 2: mid terms as we got ready for twenty twenty four. 124 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 4: We should never use mid terms as any sort of 125 00:06:09,839 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 4: leading indicator for anything, and maybe you don't. Yeah, we don't. 126 00:06:12,560 --> 00:06:16,800 Speaker 4: I don't. As an analysts and an expert. Midterms are 127 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 4: a different beast. So we really have to compare it 128 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:23,839 Speaker 4: to twenty twenty twenty sixteen and question whether our method 129 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 4: is a robust method for capturing a population that votes 130 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 4: in a general election. 131 00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 2: This is really helpful for people because the poles are 132 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:32,920 Speaker 2: a black box for people in a lot of ways, right, 133 00:06:32,960 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 2: they don't understand necessarily what goes into it because we 134 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:36,359 Speaker 2: don't always talk about it. 135 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 3: So this is a great opportunity. 136 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 2: I've had many people say to me recently as well, 137 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 2: or ask me, do you know anyone who's ever been 138 00:06:43,440 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 2: reached by a polster? And the answers usually know, does 139 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:48,039 Speaker 2: it matter? 140 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 4: That's a great question, and that's a very logical one. 141 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:53,040 Speaker 4: We are a country of three hundred and thirty five 142 00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 4: million people enough the probability to fall in any given 143 00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:00,799 Speaker 4: poll is very, very low. In addition, you know, in addition, 144 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 4: many of the polls, we actually recruit people into a 145 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:06,800 Speaker 4: panel like an episodes, and so we go to your door, 146 00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 4: we knock on the door, we recruit you in. We 147 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:10,840 Speaker 4: go to your door, Joe, we said, will you participate 148 00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 4: in theps this pole? And you say yes, and then 149 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 4: we interview you multiple times after that. So you know, 150 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:18,800 Speaker 4: the probability of falling in any given pole is very low. 151 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 4: A lot of us are using panels where we're not 152 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 4: always going out there into the field. We're reinterviewing individuals 153 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 4: that we recruited in interest, but ultimately The issue is 154 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 4: our focus always is to have a robust sample that's 155 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 4: representative of the population, and we use benchmarks like the Census, 156 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 4: the demographics on the census to ensure that we're aligned 157 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 4: and that our sample is. 158 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 2: Robust, the cell phone and the internet. Not to sound 159 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,800 Speaker 2: like a really old guy, but I am change the 160 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:54,680 Speaker 2: game in polling. Is that still evolving because I hear, Look, 161 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 2: there are people who still have landlines. 162 00:07:56,160 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 3: They're getting phone calls from posters. 163 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 4: It's in flux. Never before has the industry used so 164 00:08:01,840 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 4: many methodologies. Pew Research Center did a study last year 165 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:11,200 Speaker 4: that showed that we're doing it by phone, a cell phone, landline, online, 166 00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,800 Speaker 4: a recruited online, which is what IPSES does. Sometimes we're 167 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 4: even knocking on the doors. 168 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:17,640 Speaker 3: And when you say we, IPSOS is doing all of. 169 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 4: Those in one way or another. 170 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 5: We're doing all those. 171 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,880 Speaker 4: Maybe not just for our electoral polling, but I'm talking 172 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 4: about the industry more generally. Sure a snail mail as well. 173 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:29,240 Speaker 4: In twenty twenty two, we use snail mail sending letters 174 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 4: out to interview people in the States, and so we're 175 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 4: using a whole host of methodologies at this moment of time. 176 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 2: Want to get back to something that you mentioned here 177 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 2: in terms of overcorrecting. Maybe for Donald Trump the three 178 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 2: point miss mate silver tweets both Trump and Harris are 179 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 2: a polling error away from a blowout. And he threw 180 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 2: a couple of numbers in here. He said, if Harris 181 00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:53,520 Speaker 2: wins the national popular vote by four points a two 182 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:57,079 Speaker 2: point error, she's favored for a blowout. Trump, on the 183 00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 2: other hand, favored for a blowout if he wins by 184 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 2: just a point. 185 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 4: Why is that That's because those margins really really matter 186 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 4: in those key swing states. I mean, maybe we're talking 187 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:10,679 Speaker 4: about two hundred thousand votes in those seven states and 188 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 4: ultimately airing one point one way or one point the 189 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 4: other way represents that amount of votes. And so I 190 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 4: absolutely agree with him. Yeah, we think we've corrected things, 191 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 4: but we don't know. That's why I'm fifty to fifty 192 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 4: leading Trump. Yeh, with low levels of conviction. 193 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:33,640 Speaker 2: Is it true though, that Democrats outperform in the popular vote? 194 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 2: So you do need to see a couple of extra 195 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 2: points for Kamala Harris than Trump to get the. 196 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 4: Electoral Yeah, the rule of thumb is about three or four. Okay, 197 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:42,600 Speaker 4: you know there are a lot of people that vote 198 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:46,680 Speaker 4: Democratic in California, New York. Yeah, so ultimately to take 199 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 4: the national to take the election, excuse me, you have 200 00:09:49,720 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 4: to be about three or four at the national level. 201 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 4: That's historical rules of thumb. There's a lot of argument 202 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,000 Speaker 4: and back and forth in debate whether that relationship still 203 00:09:57,040 --> 00:10:00,199 Speaker 4: exists today. But I would say any analyst, anyone when 204 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,560 Speaker 4: looking at the election, should be looking for a three 205 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 4: or four for Harris. She needs that to win. 206 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 2: Yes, spending time with Cliff Young and ipsos is the 207 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 2: early vote keeping you up at night because we see 208 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 2: in some states it's only I think three where you 209 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 2: get d's and rs and like, boy, we can actually 210 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 2: make some assumptions here on who's pulling ballots. 211 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:18,800 Speaker 3: But then I here, wait a minute, you could. 212 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 2: Have Republican ballots going for Kamala Harris is so much 213 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 2: noisier you can't tell. 214 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 4: Yeah. I wouldn't use it as a leading indicative of anything. 215 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 4: Every electoral cycle it suggested something different. I'd be very 216 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:31,240 Speaker 4: careful when it comes to that. Really, let's look at 217 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 4: the pre election polling and and you know, you know, 218 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 4: step sit back, take a look on election day and 219 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 4: be very careful looking the data coming in. 220 00:10:39,400 --> 00:10:41,679 Speaker 2: So This is the question everybody wants to ask you. 221 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 2: Right when are they going to call this thing? Are 222 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:44,600 Speaker 2: you bracing for days or weeks? 223 00:10:46,559 --> 00:10:48,240 Speaker 4: If it's as close as we think it is, it'll 224 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 4: be longer than days. 225 00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:51,439 Speaker 2: I have longer than days because you need to Pennsylvania 226 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 2: count all these early ballots. Arizona takes forever, but it 227 00:10:54,720 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 2: might be recounts as well, recounts if it's too close 228 00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 2: and the you know, ultimately, my real worry. 229 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 4: Is about confidence in the system. The closer it is 230 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 4: and the longer it takes, the more likely it is 231 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:08,959 Speaker 4: for people to not trust the. 232 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:09,960 Speaker 3: Results about that. 233 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 2: This is gonna be another test for the polling industry. 234 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 2: I guess it is every four years, isn't it. 235 00:11:17,160 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 4: It is? Once again it's fifty to fifty linning Trump 236 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 4: with low levels of conviction. 237 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 3: There we go, there's the man. 238 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:24,839 Speaker 2: So you know, everyone's got a gut check. We got 239 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:26,600 Speaker 2: Cliff Young's gut check. And I'm gonna do this every 240 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:29,320 Speaker 2: day between now and whatever they call this thing. President 241 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 2: US Public Affairs IPSOS doing the good work for us 242 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:33,880 Speaker 2: here and I really appreciate it. As always, You've been 243 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 2: wonderful through this whole cycle. Let's compare notes next week 244 00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 2: and see where we're at. Absolutely, Cliff Young for sure, 245 00:11:38,640 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 2: I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington, and this is Balance of Power. 246 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken 247 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 248 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 1: Roud Oro with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also 249 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 250 00:11:57,760 --> 00:11:59,679 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg. 251 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:04,600 Speaker 6: It's pretty much true across the board when you look 252 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 6: at national polls, but also when you look at the 253 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:09,760 Speaker 6: poles in the battleground states, almost all of them at 254 00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 6: this time show a statistical. 255 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:13,440 Speaker 3: Tie in our poll. 256 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 2: None tighter, ye as, I remember than Wisconsin, that's right, 257 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:21,480 Speaker 2: which was a three tenths of one point race. So 258 00:12:21,520 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 2: we'll call that a literal tie. I think for these purposes, 259 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 2: that's why they were both there yesterday. 260 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 6: Yeah, and that's why we add a valuable voice on 261 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:31,800 Speaker 6: Wisconsin to our program. Now we're joined by Democratic Congresswoman 262 00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 6: Gwen Moore, who represents the Badger State here on Bloomberg 263 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 6: TV and radio. Thank you so much, Congresswoman for being 264 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 6: with us. It's nice to hear from you again, Could 265 00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 6: you just give us your real read on how tight 266 00:12:42,440 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 6: Wisconsin is at this time? 267 00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 7: Oh my god, it is so tight. But I am 268 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,959 Speaker 7: so encouraged by it is really really tight. But I'm 269 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 7: really encouraged by what I am seeing visually on the 270 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 7: ground regularly, seeing that our two hundred and fifty person 271 00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:11,240 Speaker 7: a staff here is really getting people out, young people. 272 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:15,560 Speaker 7: I'm delighted to see millennials and first time voters out 273 00:13:15,600 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 7: to vote, and that is very encouraging. 274 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 2: Take us to school on geography, Congresswoman. When we bear 275 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 2: down in our coverage on Tuesday night, we're going to 276 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:32,560 Speaker 2: be focused on your state like a laser. Where should 277 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 2: we be looking as the time zones bring Wisconsin poll 278 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:38,680 Speaker 2: closings into the picture. 279 00:13:40,760 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 7: Well, that's a good question. A lot of people always 280 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 7: want to zero in on Milwaukee, where the largest aggregation 281 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 7: of African Americans live, and Madison, of course, which is 282 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 7: the capital of progressive politics in our state and in 283 00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 7: our country. But I want to point out to people 284 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:04,120 Speaker 7: that a Milwaukee and Madison combined, that's only one third 285 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 7: of the voters in the entire state. And so that 286 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 7: is why I think that the Harris Waltz campaign has 287 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 7: gone everywhere. I would really when I look at Waukeshaw County, 288 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 7: a place that has been ruby, ruby, ruby, red, we 289 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 7: have found that every cycle Democrats have made greater and 290 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 7: greater inroads into that community. And as a matter of fact, 291 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 7: the mayor of the city of Waukeshaw endorsed Kamala Harris 292 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 7: and so you better look everywhere. I of course represent 293 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 7: Milwaukee and much of Milwaukee County. So I am laser 294 00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:54,440 Speaker 7: focused on getting our vote out and we've had As 295 00:14:54,480 --> 00:14:59,560 Speaker 7: of yesterday, we had over seventy one thousand people voted 296 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 7: in the city in Milwaukee, and that's about one third 297 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 7: of what we expect. But we are every single day 298 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 7: we're racking the numbers up well. 299 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 6: And that's just a reminder of how many minds congressomen 300 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 6: have already been made up. There may be very few 301 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:19,600 Speaker 6: left to change here. I do wonder, though, if you 302 00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 6: think some minds may have been changed by the comments 303 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 6: Donald Trump made in Wisconsin at his rally in Green 304 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 6: Bay last night, the suggestion that he will protect women 305 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 6: audio Congressman, can you hear me? I have loved congresswoman 306 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 6: all right, Well, get back work on that with Congressman 307 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 6: Gwen Moore of Wisconsin. What I was going to say, 308 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:43,920 Speaker 6: Joe is call attention to the remarks made in Green 309 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 6: Bay last night. Brett Farv was there with Donald Trump 310 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 6: when he talked about protecting women. This is something we 311 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 6: have been hearing more and more from Donald Trump as 312 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 6: he does seem to be trying to reach that group 313 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 6: of voters that he is not pulling as well with 314 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 6: as Harris is. He's pulling better with men. Of course, 315 00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:01,640 Speaker 6: he said I will protect women, whether they like it 316 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 6: or not. In Congressoman if you can hear me. Now, 317 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 6: this language from Trump, whether they like it or not, 318 00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 6: is that going to change the minds of the decided 319 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 6: voters in Wisconsin. 320 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, he's trying very you know what, it's really pathetic. 321 00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 7: Whether we like it or not, we are going to 322 00:16:19,800 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 7: vote him out. I think that we are going to 323 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 7: see a gender gap that is widening because of his 324 00:16:27,200 --> 00:16:31,200 Speaker 7: reckless comments and because he's just incredibly unbelievable. 325 00:16:32,960 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 5: It seems to me. 326 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 7: That you know, his position on you know, the father 327 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 7: of IVF. He is incredible. He is unbelievable, and we 328 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 7: are going to continue to amplify those kind of comments 329 00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 7: to voters because we are going for every single vote. 330 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 7: Donald Trump, of course is coming to Milwaukee tomorrow, but 331 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 7: so is Kabla Harris uh. And she's bringing the Isisley 332 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:11,520 Speaker 7: Brothers with her MC light Glow, Rilla Cardi B and 333 00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:16,120 Speaker 7: so there are We are really appealing to everyone now. 334 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 7: In terms of people who are undecided, I don't believe 335 00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:21,479 Speaker 7: that there are people who are undecided. I think there 336 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:25,159 Speaker 7: are people who love to vote on election day. I 337 00:17:25,280 --> 00:17:30,560 Speaker 7: used to be that person until until COVID that just 338 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,159 Speaker 7: wanted to wait until election day to vote. 339 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 4: Uh. 340 00:17:33,960 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 7: And those people who have not voted, we are tracking them. 341 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:43,040 Speaker 7: We know where people are are eligible to voting, are 342 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:46,680 Speaker 7: not voting, and we're continuing to call and to knock 343 00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:51,679 Speaker 7: on doors. We have droves of volunteers that knock on 344 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:55,280 Speaker 7: a regular basis and call on a regular basis. Where 345 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:58,640 Speaker 7: we're going. We're doing this thing until you know, one 346 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:01,960 Speaker 7: minute to eight on Tuesday night. 347 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 2: Well, it seems that somebody is listening on the call. 348 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 2: When it comes to early voting. Congresswomen, I'm looking at 349 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 2: fresh numbers here from Wisconsin that jump off the page. 350 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,160 Speaker 2: We've seen some first day records in some important states, 351 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 2: but no one expected early voting to top. As you 352 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:22,360 Speaker 2: just pointed out what we experienced in COVID enter Wisconsin. 353 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 2: With five days out, you have already beat the number 354 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 2: of in person absentee ballots cast in twenty twenty. As 355 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:32,800 Speaker 2: of this morning, seven hundred five three hundred twenty six 356 00:18:32,880 --> 00:18:36,280 Speaker 2: voters have cast ballots in person. You're going to have 357 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,879 Speaker 2: an all time high. What does this suggest to you 358 00:18:38,920 --> 00:18:40,000 Speaker 2: about the final result? 359 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 7: Well, because people in Wisconsin understand our important role in 360 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:51,840 Speaker 7: standing up our democracy. You know, we understand as women 361 00:18:52,200 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 7: the importance of protecting our civil rights. We understand even 362 00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:03,560 Speaker 7: as men it hurts men. We understand the importance of 363 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:10,080 Speaker 7: protecting workers' rights, in terms of protecting social security, in 364 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 7: terms of protecting pensions, in terms of protecting all of 365 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:18,080 Speaker 7: the things that we believe that with Project twenty twenty 366 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,080 Speaker 7: five that the president will roll back. 367 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:22,640 Speaker 5: You know, you know. 368 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:27,439 Speaker 7: Reasons that people like Elon Musk, for example, are so 369 00:19:27,600 --> 00:19:33,160 Speaker 7: involved in the campaign want to destroy payments, for example, 370 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 7: in salaries for overtime work, and men and women know 371 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 7: that there is much at risk. 372 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 2: You'll get your state back maybe in a week. Congresswoman, 373 00:19:47,040 --> 00:19:48,640 Speaker 2: good luck with the ads and the speeches. 374 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:49,639 Speaker 3: And thank you for being with us. 375 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,680 Speaker 2: Gwen Moore from the fourth District of Wisconsin, the congresswoman, 376 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,360 Speaker 2: of course, has a good chunk of Milwaukee in her 377 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 2: district where we actually have the RNC just a couple 378 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 2: of months ago and what was a very different. 379 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 6: Kaylie, Yeah, Joe Biden was still imagine that running back. 380 00:20:03,320 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 3: It's hard to remember, actually, Yeah. 381 00:20:05,520 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 6: And the first tempt on Donald Trump's. 382 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 4: Life has had just out of business weekend. 383 00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 1: Yeah. 384 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 6: Pretty incredible few months we've seen on this trail, and 385 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 6: pretty incredible to realize that this is all coming to 386 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,120 Speaker 6: an end in five days, or at least we hope 387 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,480 Speaker 6: in five days. It could be you know, ten, fifteen, 388 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:26,159 Speaker 6: couple weeks, could stretch out for a little bit longer, 389 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 6: but the home stretch is my point. 390 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 2: Well, there does seem to be consensus. The more voices 391 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 2: on this program. We don't know about any undecided voters. 392 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 2: I think we're beyond that now. It's about getting people 393 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,800 Speaker 2: out and that includes you. You'll help us get there 394 00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:42,359 Speaker 2: next week with special coverage on election like this is Bloomberg. 395 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 396 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo CarPlay and 397 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 1: then Proud with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 398 00:20:55,800 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 399 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,920 Speaker 6: We countdown, which is five days to go until election day, 400 00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:10,120 Speaker 6: and both candidates making their pitches to groups where they 401 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,200 Speaker 6: are trying to have more strength. For Kamala Harris today 402 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:15,600 Speaker 6: she Chris crosses Nevada and Arizona and part that's a 403 00:21:15,600 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 6: focus on Latino voters. The same could be said for 404 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:22,199 Speaker 6: Donald Trump, who is in Albuquerque, New Mexico. But for 405 00:21:22,280 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 6: Donald Trump as well, it's about courting more women because 406 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:29,560 Speaker 6: Harris consistently has been pulling ahead of him in that 407 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 6: gender group while she lags him on men. He's been 408 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 6: talking a lot about rallies, at rallies about protecting women, 409 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,280 Speaker 6: and as we have mentioned a few times this hour, 410 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 6: he talked about protecting women again last night in Wisconsin. 411 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 8: The women of our country. I want to protect the women, sir, 412 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,360 Speaker 8: Please don't say that why. They said, we think it's 413 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:52,639 Speaker 8: we think it's very inappropriate for you to say. I say, 414 00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,520 Speaker 8: why I'm president, I want to protect the women of 415 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 8: our country. I said, well, I'm going to do it, 416 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 8: whether the women like it or not. I'm going to 417 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 8: protect them. 418 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 2: And that is not all Donald Trump said in the 419 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,520 Speaker 2: rally in Green Bay. If you're with us on Bloomberg 420 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 2: TV or YouTube, you see him wearing the reflector safety 421 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 2: vest as he was trying to don the outfit of 422 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,800 Speaker 2: a garbage man, as he put it, following the flap 423 00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 2: over the use of the word garbage earlier in the week. 424 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 2: This is getting to be extensive background here with several 425 00:22:23,920 --> 00:22:27,840 Speaker 2: turns in this whole controversy. But Donald Trump also told 426 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 2: supporters that they're on pace for a runaway victory barring 427 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 2: any fraud. And it brings us back to the preamble here, 428 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:41,919 Speaker 2: the pre buttle, if you will, setting the stage potentially 429 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 2: for what Donald Trump could call a rigged election having 430 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 2: experienced this in twenty twenty. Shields are up and our 431 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:53,840 Speaker 2: signature panel is with us. Genie shanz No, Bloomberg Politics contributor, 432 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:59,160 Speaker 2: Democratic Analysts, political science professor at Iona University, alongside Rick Davis, 433 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:02,920 Speaker 2: of course, bloomber Letics contributed Republican strategist and partner at 434 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,760 Speaker 2: Stone Court Capital. Genie, what's your thought on this? Because 435 00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:09,159 Speaker 2: people's minds go to the same place. He points to 436 00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 2: the poly market he tells supporters that he's leading in 437 00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 2: the polls when they're in fact, we've established over the 438 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 2: course of this program already they're dead even but it 439 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:22,159 Speaker 2: helps to set up the narrative for post election. 440 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,439 Speaker 3: According to some Democrats, how do you see it? 441 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 9: Yeah, And I think that's the big fear. I mean, 442 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:31,880 Speaker 9: we've just heard that Kamala Harris's team has gone and 443 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 9: hired Mark Elias. He is a great attorney that helps 444 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:39,160 Speaker 9: Democrats and these kinds of challenges the obviously the GOP, 445 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:43,240 Speaker 9: the Republicans and the FRUM campaign have their own attorneys. 446 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:45,879 Speaker 9: Because I think we have entered now what we all 447 00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 9: knew was coming, which is days before the race and 448 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,080 Speaker 9: in the days after, there's going to be a host 449 00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:55,360 Speaker 9: of legal challenges. And I think we can see that 450 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,199 Speaker 9: and this is nothing new. This sort of you know, 451 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,520 Speaker 9: election law fair if you will, has been coming since 452 00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,920 Speaker 9: the two thousand campaign. We're twenty five years after that, 453 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,160 Speaker 9: and now we are living in a democracy in which 454 00:24:08,160 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 9: almost every election is being challenged in court. And so 455 00:24:12,760 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 9: it's not the way you want to run an election, 456 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,159 Speaker 9: but it's where we find ourselves. And I can just 457 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,520 Speaker 9: tell you I was talking to young people earlier today, 458 00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:24,200 Speaker 9: many of them are concerned about what's going to happen 459 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 9: after the election. And they are concerned because, like all 460 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,320 Speaker 9: of us, they listen to this rhetoric and they hear 461 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 9: that people are saying these things are going to be challenged, 462 00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,560 Speaker 9: and they fear that somebody or some group may take 463 00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:37,320 Speaker 9: this too far. 464 00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:38,560 Speaker 10: So I think it. 465 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 9: Could be a few days after this election, and hopefully 466 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 9: it doesn't last too too long. 467 00:24:44,560 --> 00:24:47,400 Speaker 6: So it raises a couple questions for me, Rick, one 468 00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,920 Speaker 6: being does the electorate, the broad electorate, kind of see 469 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 6: through this, Maybe not the most loyal Trump supporters who 470 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:57,199 Speaker 6: still believe that he won in twenty twenty that something 471 00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:01,320 Speaker 6: was wrong when no court, no factual evidence supports that. 472 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,879 Speaker 6: Or does it even matter if the electorate sees through it, 473 00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 6: because it's ultimately going to be decided not by them, 474 00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:08,880 Speaker 6: but potentially in the courts. 475 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:15,119 Speaker 10: Well, ultimately it's always the voters who decide who gets 476 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 10: counted as a voter. You want to have confidence that 477 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,840 Speaker 10: all qualified voters have their votes count on election day. 478 00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:25,760 Speaker 10: The question is when is that decision going to be made. 479 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 10: I mean, over the last two years, have will already 480 00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 10: been one hundred and sixty five lawsuits that would dictate 481 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:34,639 Speaker 10: who those voters are, who's eligible, what the voter rules 482 00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:37,360 Speaker 10: look like. And we've heard an onslot of those things recently, 483 00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:43,280 Speaker 10: and obviously post election they'll be even the more by 484 00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:48,919 Speaker 10: both parties over one election and regularities, and two a 485 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 10: lot of activity around vote counting, including what is likely 486 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 10: to happen, which is almost every one of these targeted states, 487 00:25:56,160 --> 00:26:01,520 Speaker 10: these swing states are within the mark error, certainly within 488 00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:04,040 Speaker 10: one percentage point most of them. The leeds are only 489 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 10: a tenth of a point or two tenths of a point, 490 00:26:06,800 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 10: and those are likely to go to recounts. And each 491 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 10: of these seven states have different recount laws, and each 492 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 10: of those have different times that govern how long it 493 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 10: takes to recount them. And so we may be sitting 494 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:21,119 Speaker 10: through seven recounts in addition to all the litigation. 495 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:23,440 Speaker 3: Wow, what a thought. 496 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 2: You know, we talked so much about the weave that's 497 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,199 Speaker 2: Donald Trump, that we do the weave. How about the 498 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:32,400 Speaker 2: blur genie. This lawsuit that was filed in Pennsylvania two 499 00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,360 Speaker 2: days ago is important. Donald Trump's campaign suing the Board 500 00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:38,240 Speaker 2: of Elections in Bucks County because they said people were 501 00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 2: denied access when they tried to drop off their mail 502 00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,879 Speaker 2: in ballots. To be clear, they don't do in person 503 00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,480 Speaker 2: early voting there, but you can drop off your mail 504 00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 2: in ballot in person. It got to the point where 505 00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:53,240 Speaker 2: a judge granted a preliminary injunction and extended the deadline 506 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 2: for these ballots. But we have little stories like this 507 00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,719 Speaker 2: cropping up around the country. 508 00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:57,920 Speaker 5: Here. 509 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 2: When you put them into the mosaic blur, people start 510 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,040 Speaker 2: to say, hey, this whole system is broken. 511 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:04,879 Speaker 3: Isn't that the idea? 512 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,880 Speaker 9: It absolutely is. I like the idea of the blur. 513 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,639 Speaker 9: I don't like the idea, but it's a great descriptor, Joe. 514 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:15,320 Speaker 9: And that's precisely what Trump is trying to do. I mean, 515 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,400 Speaker 9: his argument all along has been I am going to win. 516 00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 9: The only reason I won't win is because the other 517 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:26,040 Speaker 9: side has stolen this election. And so this is how 518 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,639 Speaker 9: he does it. He talks about Bucks County, where we 519 00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:32,120 Speaker 9: know the Bucks County officials on the ground said that 520 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:35,119 Speaker 9: was them trying to stick with voting hours, and it 521 00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:38,359 Speaker 9: was something that the judge rightly extended those days. That 522 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:41,240 Speaker 9: should give us sort of a sense of calmness and 523 00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 9: a sense of you know that this system is working 524 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,200 Speaker 9: the way it should, but that's not how Donald Trump 525 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:51,040 Speaker 9: is presenting it. Also, he's you know, talking constantly about Lancaster, 526 00:27:51,240 --> 00:27:54,879 Speaker 9: Pennsylvania two hundred twenty six hundred votes he said were stolen. 527 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,959 Speaker 9: Those weren't votes, Those are voter applications, right. He doesn't 528 00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,760 Speaker 9: mention the fact that the GOP just won in the 529 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:05,440 Speaker 9: US Supreme Court with the case of the Governor of 530 00:28:05,520 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 9: Virginia purging those sixteen hundred voters from the voter roles. 531 00:28:10,320 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 9: So there's a lot of litigation out there. He is 532 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,080 Speaker 9: absolutely trying to do what you call blur this thing. 533 00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,640 Speaker 9: So if he does lose, and it makes you wonder 534 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,080 Speaker 9: if that's what they're seeing in their internal polls, that 535 00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:23,600 Speaker 9: he then will come back and say this was stolen. 536 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 9: And that is what makes what's happening today and what's 537 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,679 Speaker 9: happened with Donald Trump so different. We do have a 538 00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:32,720 Speaker 9: right to challenge elections when we are a part of them. 539 00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:37,560 Speaker 9: We do have that absolute capacity in legal ability and right. 540 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 9: But it is the fact that he will not promise 541 00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:43,040 Speaker 9: that when this thing is over, he will accept a 542 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,320 Speaker 9: loss if that's what indeed occurs, that makes everybody so 543 00:28:46,440 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 9: anxious about this thing. 544 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 6: In addition to all of the legal issues happening around 545 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 6: the vote itself. There also was heard in court today 546 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:59,400 Speaker 6: arguments in the case surrounding Elon Musk's million dollars sweepstakes 547 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,040 Speaker 6: to a registered voter. It's now moving to federal court 548 00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:06,040 Speaker 6: after a state judge heard arguments earlier today. This, of course, 549 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,880 Speaker 6: is a million dollar a day sweepstakes rick that is 550 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:12,280 Speaker 6: being led by America Pack, which Musk has funneled millions 551 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,640 Speaker 6: and millions, tens of millions of dollars into and also 552 00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:16,560 Speaker 6: has been charged with a lot of the ground game 553 00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 6: for Donald Trump. Do we have a sense of how 554 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,120 Speaker 6: maybe not the sweepstakes, but how the actual get out 555 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,760 Speaker 6: the vote effort is going with the fact that it 556 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:26,600 Speaker 6: has been outsourced by the Trump campaign. 557 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 10: Yeah, I must admit I have a particular anis in this. 558 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 10: I love the ground game activity. I've been making a 559 00:29:33,840 --> 00:29:38,240 Speaker 10: lot of calls to Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada places that 560 00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 10: I still have some old friends who are in the 561 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:46,080 Speaker 10: political game operating, and to an individual, they indicate to 562 00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:49,480 Speaker 10: me that the biggest disaster of the twenty twenty four 563 00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:53,560 Speaker 10: campaign is going to be the America pack It's stewardship 564 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 10: of the money that they've received, the conflicting, you know, 565 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 10: demands that Eli Musk gives making them to do these 566 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:06,520 Speaker 10: turnout operations, the lack of coordination that they've had with 567 00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 10: political groups like the Party on the ground in virtually 568 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:14,040 Speaker 10: every one of the swing states. So would not I 569 00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 10: would be shocked if there's any evidence that the turnout 570 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:21,000 Speaker 10: operation is going well in any one state. And I 571 00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 10: will not be shocked if Donald Trump loses he blames 572 00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 10: it on Elon Musk. 573 00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:29,520 Speaker 3: What do you make of that, genie. 574 00:30:29,520 --> 00:30:31,760 Speaker 2: That's a lot of money to spend to be blamed 575 00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,080 Speaker 2: for an electoral loss. 576 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 5: It is. 577 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:36,880 Speaker 9: And just to follow up on that, we heard about 578 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 9: some people, some canvassers who said they were put in 579 00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 9: the back of a pickup truck. They didn't know who 580 00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 9: they were working for, they were threatened. I mean, it 581 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 9: has gotten ugly on the ground. It is a hard 582 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:48,880 Speaker 9: thing to do, the ground game, as Rick knows better 583 00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 9: than anyone, and it takes time and it takes organization. 584 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:56,400 Speaker 9: Elon Musk has never exhibited any sense or ability to 585 00:30:56,440 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 9: do this, And so I would say that I agree 586 00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,120 Speaker 9: with the assessment that if this thing goes south for Trump, 587 00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:04,600 Speaker 9: it's gonna be based probably on the ground game. 588 00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,960 Speaker 6: Well, El Musk certainly is one of Trump's loudest surrogates. Genie, 589 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:10,720 Speaker 6: we just have about ninety seconds left. But if you 590 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:14,800 Speaker 6: look at Kamala Harris's prominent surrogates, we talked about Joe 591 00:31:14,840 --> 00:31:18,920 Speaker 6: Biden's garbage gaff already this week there was President Barack Obama, 592 00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,000 Speaker 6: former president, suggesting that black men who don't vote for Harris, 593 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:23,920 Speaker 6: we're doing it because of some kind of sex and 594 00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 6: sexism or misogyny. Then today what's making the rounds in 595 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,800 Speaker 6: conservative circles is Mark Cuban, another powerful surrogate for her, 596 00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:36,040 Speaker 6: saying that Donald Trump is never around strong intelligent women. 597 00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:38,520 Speaker 6: Are the surrogates doing more damage to her than helping 598 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 6: her at this point? 599 00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 9: Yeah, I think absolutely. In the case of Joe Biden, 600 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 9: you hear every Democrat saying get him in the White 601 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,080 Speaker 9: House and keep him there and don't let him go 602 00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:49,760 Speaker 9: before zoom. And I do think Kamala Harris could have 603 00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:53,520 Speaker 9: came out tougher on that and distanced herself. It's one 604 00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 9: of the dangers of working with surrogates. I'm not sure 605 00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,120 Speaker 9: that Mark Cuban statement will have as much traction, But 606 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:04,240 Speaker 9: the Joe Biden and definitely didn't help the campaign, all right. 607 00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:08,040 Speaker 6: Jeanie Shanzano and Rick Davis, our signature political panel joining 608 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:10,400 Speaker 6: us on this Thursday, Thank you so much as always, 609 00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:13,040 Speaker 6: and we still have much more ahead on balance of powers. 610 00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:15,840 Speaker 6: We talk about the campaign and the ground game, the 611 00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 6: messaging they are putting out to try to turn voters 612 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,760 Speaker 6: out in these final days here, a lot of that 613 00:32:20,800 --> 00:32:23,800 Speaker 6: messaging does also surround policy. For all of the attention 614 00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,640 Speaker 6: paid to some of these more provocative one liners, if 615 00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,520 Speaker 6: you will, they're still trying to sell their economic policy 616 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:32,280 Speaker 6: in particular, and we're going to take a closer look 617 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:35,520 Speaker 6: at that and where the economy is yep, absolutely heading 618 00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:37,160 Speaker 6: into election day because this is it. 619 00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,520 Speaker 2: We spent months asking where will the economy be when 620 00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:41,920 Speaker 2: people vote? Here we are and Douglas holtz Echan will 621 00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:45,360 Speaker 2: join us coming up next on the Fastest Show in Politics. 622 00:32:45,400 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 2: Thanks again to our signature panel, and a lot more 623 00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,800 Speaker 2: to follow here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Alongside Kaylee Lines, 624 00:32:51,800 --> 00:32:54,760 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew. Have we mentioned there are five days 625 00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:55,080 Speaker 2: to go? 626 00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,080 Speaker 3: Oh and Happy Halloween. Thanks for being part of the 627 00:32:58,120 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 3: show today only on Bloomberg. 628 00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens 629 00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,440 Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then 630 00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,120 Speaker 1: royd Otto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also 631 00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,680 Speaker 1: listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 632 00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:20,080 Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 633 00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:24,680 Speaker 2: This is a big data week and it matters because, well, 634 00:33:24,760 --> 00:33:27,240 Speaker 2: presumably some people are still making up their mind on 635 00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 2: who they want to vote for. Maybe some people could 636 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:32,320 Speaker 2: have their minds changed. There's also a little FED meeting. 637 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,960 Speaker 2: I hate to remind you here it's right after the 638 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,080 Speaker 2: election next week, which makes us wonder as well. Kayley 639 00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,800 Speaker 2: lines about potential volatility in this market if we don't 640 00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:41,600 Speaker 2: get an early. 641 00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:44,480 Speaker 6: Call, Well, yeah, there could be a major uncertainty around 642 00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,560 Speaker 6: not just who wins the presidency, but who's going to 643 00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:49,880 Speaker 6: control Congress. And then potentially you add monetary policy and 644 00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:52,840 Speaker 6: certainty to you to all that potential fiscal policy uncertainty. 645 00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:55,320 Speaker 6: It could be a pretty nasty cocktail. And a reminder 646 00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:56,200 Speaker 6: that we're all in for. 647 00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:56,880 Speaker 4: It next week. 648 00:33:56,920 --> 00:34:00,160 Speaker 6: So thank you, Joe. Happy Halloween everyone. It's spooky out 649 00:34:00,200 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 6: here as we consider though the economic data we got 650 00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,520 Speaker 6: today that could inform that Fed decision next week and 651 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,920 Speaker 6: inform voters thoughts on the economy as they head to 652 00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:11,880 Speaker 6: the ballot box. It's arguably trending in the right direction. 653 00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:17,640 Speaker 6: PCEE two point one percent, almost right there, exactly at 654 00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:18,920 Speaker 6: the federal reserves target. 655 00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:21,640 Speaker 2: Pretty good reading, although a bit below forecast two point 656 00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:22,800 Speaker 2: eight percent growth on GDP. 657 00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,840 Speaker 3: This week we get jobs data tomorrow. 658 00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:27,759 Speaker 2: Expected to have the lowest pre election unemployment rate Kley 659 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:28,600 Speaker 2: in twenty four years. 660 00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:30,319 Speaker 6: So we want to get a picture of all of 661 00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:33,600 Speaker 6: this and consider the economic policies being put forward still 662 00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:35,760 Speaker 6: on the campaign trail, because we've gotten some new ones 663 00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,479 Speaker 6: just in the last week or so. Douglas, while Deacon 664 00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:41,840 Speaker 6: is with us now he is president at American Action Forum. 665 00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 6: Welcome back to Balance of Power, Sir, are always great 666 00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,480 Speaker 6: to have. You can you just diagnose where the economy 667 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:51,399 Speaker 6: really is right now as election day is basically upon us. 668 00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,080 Speaker 11: Well, I think the starting point is the third quarter 669 00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,920 Speaker 11: GDP numbers, which were quite good, you know, year over 670 00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:00,120 Speaker 11: year two point seven percent growth two point eight in 671 00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:03,760 Speaker 11: the third quarter at an annual rate, bolstered by strong 672 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,359 Speaker 11: household spending and strong government spending. The only you know, 673 00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:10,560 Speaker 11: Achilles Heel in that report is light on business fixed investments, 674 00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,359 Speaker 11: something I always keep an eye on, but on the whole, 675 00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:16,000 Speaker 11: a very strong report, and you compliment that with a 676 00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:20,200 Speaker 11: big jump in consumer confidence early in October that suggests 677 00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,040 Speaker 11: that the households are going to continue to be spending 678 00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,400 Speaker 11: their money. You get a jobs report from ADP at 679 00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 11: two hundred thirty thousand jobs, another big number in the 680 00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 11: labor market, and then you get the PC report, and 681 00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:35,480 Speaker 11: that's the only thing that makes me, you know, have 682 00:35:35,520 --> 00:35:39,200 Speaker 11: a little pause, which is core PCE eas zero over 683 00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:40,040 Speaker 11: year a two point. 684 00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:41,560 Speaker 5: Seven has been stuck there for four months. 685 00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 11: And so if you look at inflation expectations a year 686 00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:47,759 Speaker 11: out there two and a half to three, inflations at 687 00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:49,640 Speaker 11: two and a half, which we've sort of settled into 688 00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:52,080 Speaker 11: a two and a half percent rot And the question 689 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,200 Speaker 11: is will we see continued progress toward two percent or 690 00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,600 Speaker 11: will the Fed essentially go on hold. But I think 691 00:35:57,600 --> 00:35:59,160 Speaker 11: the right way to think about it, if you listen 692 00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,680 Speaker 11: to the spooky list that you went through here at 693 00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 11: the lead in segment, the economy is not the spooky thing. 694 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,040 Speaker 11: It's the policy risk that's surrounded. If you're trying to 695 00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,640 Speaker 11: figure out where you're going. It's all about what will 696 00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,520 Speaker 11: the FED do, and in particular, what will the candidates do, 697 00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,200 Speaker 11: who will win, and how will the FED have to 698 00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,360 Speaker 11: react to, for example, a ten percent across the word tariff. 699 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,239 Speaker 5: That's hard to game that out. 700 00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,239 Speaker 2: Does that mean we've got a quarter point in the 701 00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,239 Speaker 2: bag for next week, Douglas? I ask you that because 702 00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,000 Speaker 2: Joe Biden put out a statement on the PCEE data. 703 00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:32,040 Speaker 2: He says inflation has now fallen to two point one percent, 704 00:36:32,120 --> 00:36:34,880 Speaker 2: nearly at its two percent target, but we have more 705 00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:35,440 Speaker 2: to do. 706 00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:37,520 Speaker 5: Well. 707 00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:40,680 Speaker 11: I think that, you know, many presidents try to box 708 00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:42,719 Speaker 11: the FED in good luck with that they're going to 709 00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:46,000 Speaker 11: do their job. I was among those who was surprised 710 00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:49,400 Speaker 11: to see them go fifty basis points and thought that 711 00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,240 Speaker 11: when they did that, they really gave themselves the option 712 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,960 Speaker 11: to go more slowly later the day after the election, 713 00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 11: when it may not even really be settled and we've 714 00:36:57,560 --> 00:36:59,880 Speaker 11: seen these recent strong data, it might be a good 715 00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:00,919 Speaker 11: stay on hold. 716 00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,640 Speaker 5: We'll see, Okay. 717 00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,080 Speaker 6: So that's the monetary policy side of this equation. To 718 00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,000 Speaker 6: get back to the fiscal side, though, which could obviously 719 00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:12,640 Speaker 6: be dramatically impacted depending on who wins these many races. 720 00:37:12,960 --> 00:37:16,880 Speaker 6: On Tuesday, Douglas, We've heard from Elon Musk and Donald 721 00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,040 Speaker 6: Trump reiterating what Elon Musk said in the last week 722 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,680 Speaker 6: that he, if he is appointed the head of this 723 00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:25,120 Speaker 6: Government Efficiency Commission or whatever you want to call it, 724 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:29,080 Speaker 6: could cut two trillion dollars in government spending. Is that 725 00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:29,800 Speaker 6: really possible? 726 00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:32,680 Speaker 5: I will be six to. 727 00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:34,720 Speaker 11: Four and have a full head of hair before that happens. 728 00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:41,279 Speaker 11: There's just no way. This is a nice talking point, 729 00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:44,440 Speaker 11: but who is going to give him that authority? The 730 00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,840 Speaker 11: President doesn't have the authority to give a private citizen 731 00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:48,760 Speaker 11: an accent, say, go after. 732 00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:49,480 Speaker 5: The federal agencies. 733 00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,239 Speaker 11: The Congress that I states would have to pass a 734 00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:55,200 Speaker 11: law to produce the commission that he could lead that 735 00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:57,800 Speaker 11: had those authorities, and that is never going to happen. 736 00:37:58,000 --> 00:38:00,319 Speaker 11: They created the programs that he's talking about cutting out, 737 00:38:00,480 --> 00:38:04,040 Speaker 11: They put in place. The personality is talking about acting out. No, 738 00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:07,120 Speaker 11: this is a campaign talk that should be interpreted as 739 00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:08,239 Speaker 11: no more than campaign talk. 740 00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,600 Speaker 2: Well, considering your former life at CBO, we thought maybe 741 00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:16,160 Speaker 2: you could score this idea because Elon Musk told people 742 00:38:16,160 --> 00:38:19,759 Speaker 2: in the crowd yesterday, fight if you're laughing, that's not 743 00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:22,440 Speaker 2: a good sign because Elon Musk says, we're gonna be 744 00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:23,400 Speaker 2: in it for some pain. 745 00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:25,160 Speaker 3: Douglas, what's it gonna feel like? 746 00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:31,640 Speaker 11: So if supposed you just did the exercise where you 747 00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:34,560 Speaker 11: had a commission that could recommend things, they would have 748 00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:40,360 Speaker 11: to recommend the near elimination of half the government in 749 00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:43,320 Speaker 11: order to reset that two trillion dollars target they've taken 750 00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,160 Speaker 11: off limits. So screamatic here. Remember the candidate Trump has 751 00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:50,640 Speaker 11: said he's not touching those. Those are by themselves over 752 00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:53,560 Speaker 11: half of nonasure spending over the next ten years. So 753 00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,400 Speaker 11: you got to take on the other half of government 754 00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,840 Speaker 11: and decimate it. I think some Republicans are going to 755 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,120 Speaker 11: want to hold on to the defense to I'm just guessing. 756 00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:05,520 Speaker 11: And you know, it seems unlikely that you could get 757 00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:09,080 Speaker 11: anything through Congress to enact these this commission's proposals. So 758 00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:12,560 Speaker 11: you know, I'm now officially old. I remember the Grace Commission. 759 00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,960 Speaker 11: I remember the great claims that were going to be 760 00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,120 Speaker 11: made about how it changed the trajectory of the federal 761 00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,879 Speaker 11: bureocracy forever. And as I sit here in twenty twenty four, 762 00:39:20,480 --> 00:39:22,919 Speaker 11: it doesn't look like it did much and this won't either. 763 00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,440 Speaker 6: Well, if we're just still gaming out like the hypothetical 764 00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,319 Speaker 6: math here, even if you were to do all of that, 765 00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:33,640 Speaker 6: could you pay for the tax cuts? Donald Trump has 766 00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:37,359 Speaker 6: put forward the very long list of the tax either 767 00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:40,040 Speaker 6: cuts or brakes. Even if you were to do all 768 00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:41,880 Speaker 6: of that, get rid of the Defense Department or what 769 00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:42,239 Speaker 6: have you. 770 00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,680 Speaker 11: Look, look, there are so little specificity, and there's so 771 00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,640 Speaker 11: there's one that happens every day, don't nobody's proposed today. 772 00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:52,279 Speaker 11: I'm not sure we're going to have a tax base 773 00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:56,520 Speaker 11: by tuesday. He has given away the store on a 774 00:39:56,600 --> 00:40:02,280 Speaker 11: daily basis, so you know it's it's not it's nothing 775 00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:07,279 Speaker 11: like a sound tax policy platform. He wants to simultaneous 776 00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,000 Speaker 11: extend the twenty seven Act or the seventeen Act and 777 00:40:10,600 --> 00:40:11,360 Speaker 11: do a bunch. 778 00:40:11,120 --> 00:40:14,240 Speaker 5: Of other things. They're gonna have to. 779 00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:17,000 Speaker 11: Step back and restart. And I guess you know, I 780 00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:20,480 Speaker 11: understand campaigns. I've been on a campaign. I understand the 781 00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,520 Speaker 11: politics of trying to collect votes as you go to 782 00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,960 Speaker 11: the finish line. But it's important to recognize that he 783 00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:29,440 Speaker 11: wants to get a deal on seventeen. That would be 784 00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,800 Speaker 11: his signature accomplishment. Did it in his first term, renewed 785 00:40:32,800 --> 00:40:36,040 Speaker 11: it in his second term. Every time he makes a proposal, 786 00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,400 Speaker 11: let's not tax overtime, let's not tax let's get rid 787 00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:40,080 Speaker 11: of the salt cap. 788 00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:41,920 Speaker 5: He creates a constituency that. 789 00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:43,920 Speaker 11: Makes it harder to extend, that makes it harder to 790 00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:46,719 Speaker 11: renew it, and so he is working at odds with 791 00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:47,879 Speaker 11: what he means next year. 792 00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,440 Speaker 2: It is true the appropriations folks that we talk to 793 00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:56,200 Speaker 2: are getting some anxiety every time Donald Trump announces another 794 00:40:56,480 --> 00:41:00,200 Speaker 2: exemption at the podium here Kymlin Harris has had her 795 00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:02,840 Speaker 2: share of them, is well Douglas, and as a creature 796 00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,160 Speaker 2: of Washington, you know what, the conventional wisdom is, the 797 00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:09,040 Speaker 2: House they say will turn democratic, the Senate will turn Republican. 798 00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,880 Speaker 2: In that world, neither of them likely get any of 799 00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:14,440 Speaker 2: their proposals passed, right. 800 00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:19,240 Speaker 11: I think the New proposals, so you know, the Harris 801 00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:23,640 Speaker 11: proposals on taxing capital gains and the like, they're non 802 00:41:23,680 --> 00:41:26,640 Speaker 11: starters in that world. I think the Trump proposers are 803 00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:29,360 Speaker 11: the same way. My concern is they will revert to 804 00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:32,360 Speaker 11: form and just buy each other off, and we'll do 805 00:41:32,400 --> 00:41:35,319 Speaker 11: the extended spending that the Democrats want, will extend all 806 00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:37,560 Speaker 11: the task cuts without paying for him, and will be 807 00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:39,840 Speaker 11: in a fiscal mess and so that's that's really. 808 00:41:39,600 --> 00:41:41,320 Speaker 5: Worth looking out for. 809 00:41:41,760 --> 00:41:43,160 Speaker 3: Oh gosh, well you know. 810 00:41:43,200 --> 00:41:49,960 Speaker 2: That's that is Halloween, right, Well, you want to you 811 00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:51,240 Speaker 2: want to one up us on spooky? 812 00:41:51,280 --> 00:41:51,759 Speaker 5: I think you one. 813 00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:55,400 Speaker 11: No, But honestly, one of the things to watch for 814 00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:58,120 Speaker 11: is when really pressed for time and it's gonna be 815 00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,000 Speaker 11: tight next year, they got a lot going on, and yeah, 816 00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:03,239 Speaker 11: not knowing really what to do, they revert to form 817 00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:04,839 Speaker 11: and do what they did before. And they have done 818 00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,240 Speaker 11: that before, so they can easily kick the whole decision 819 00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:07,960 Speaker 11: out two years and. 820 00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:13,120 Speaker 2: Try again Path of Least Resistance Douglas Holds seeking great 821 00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,120 Speaker 2: to see you as always. Thanks for joining us today 822 00:42:15,120 --> 00:42:17,480 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and radio. We always have good conversations 823 00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:19,960 Speaker 2: with you, Douglas because he can speak freely now that 824 00:42:19,960 --> 00:42:22,799 Speaker 2: he's not running the CBO. 825 00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:27,480 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 826 00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:31,239 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 827 00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:33,919 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 828 00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:37,200 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 829 00:42:37,520 --> 00:42:38,920 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.