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Speaker 1: Welcome in friends to betting pros College Football Early look Ahead.

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Speaker 1: I am Chris Welsher host, joined by thorn n I

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Speaker 1: strim of course the person you're here for, and we

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Speaker 1: are taking a look at week eleven, but four week

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Speaker 1: ten ended up treating you.

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Speaker 2: We had some incredible maction.

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Speaker 1: We had some sick games this weekend was money half

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Speaker 1: is a question?

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Speaker 3: Money was had? Yeah, we had another winning week, had

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Speaker 3: some solid picks. I took one of them. I hate

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Speaker 3: to complain about bad beats because over the long run

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Speaker 3: they normalize, but I took arguably my first one of

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Speaker 3: the year where I was like, man, that was really

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Speaker 3: a bad beat on the New Mexico against Utah State

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Speaker 3: game where Utah State was up by ten at the

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Speaker 3: end and I plus sixteen in New Mexico. I've been

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Speaker 3: playing pretty well all game, but then they had the

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Speaker 3: ball at three minutes left, they fumble it and Utah

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Speaker 3: State runs it back wins by seventeen. That one hurt,

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Speaker 3: but we had overall, we had a winning week, so

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Speaker 3: I was happy about it.

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Speaker 1: Well, I remember last week I took I think I

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Speaker 1: think it was little really. The video you posted early

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Speaker 1: in the week with your play I got to be

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Speaker 1: honest with you, I'm completely forgetting what it was now,

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Speaker 1: I without question Instita took your maction play on last

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Speaker 1: Wednesday that you did a video on and it smacked.

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Speaker 1: So hopefully we can do a little bit more of

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Speaker 1: that this week at a full slate of Maction.

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Speaker 3: A time it was Ball stay by the way.

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Speaker 2: That's what it was, Ball Stayed by. I think it

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Speaker 2: was plus seven.

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Speaker 1: And a half and they won't outright exactly only thing. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: all I was doing was kicking myself or just not

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Speaker 1: taking a money line, but whatever, we're all golden. I

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Speaker 1: had the plus seven and I felt grievy about that,

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Speaker 1: and hopefully we'll do a little bit more of it.

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Speaker 1: So that's what we're gonna do. We're gonna look at

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Speaker 1: some of the big games, the early look ahead. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna be able to find everything that Thor has got.

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Speaker 2: If you are subscribed to.

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Speaker 1: This channel, you're gonna be able to get in on

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Speaker 1: all the shows and you don't have to just do

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Speaker 1: the look ahead. You can do the actual previews in

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Speaker 1: the actual line. So make sure you subscribe to it

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Speaker 1: and follow Thor on Twitter at four K you let's

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Speaker 1: talk about some Maction thor on Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: So we don't have to wait very long.

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Speaker 1: We've got three games Eastern Michigan at Akron, Ohio, at Miami, Ohio,

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Speaker 1: and the aforementioned Ball State at Toledo. The lines are out.

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Speaker 1: You've got some your early stuff here. What do you

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Speaker 1: like on Maction for Tuesday?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's now we get the full Maction card. Last

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Speaker 3: week we had the two Tuesdays, the two Wednesdays. Now

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Speaker 3: this is legit. Now we're in the thick of legitimaction

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Speaker 3: with the three and the three. You love to see it.

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Speaker 3: With my justed lines against against the openers, one of

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Speaker 3: the ones that we were talking about this before the show.

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Speaker 3: I my justed line on Toledo ball State is Toledo

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Speaker 3: minus fifteen point seven. That game is minus eleven and

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Speaker 3: a half right now, So there's a four point two

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Speaker 3: point discrepancy. But I can explain that one by the

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Speaker 3: status of Toledo quarterback day Kwon Finn. We have to

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Speaker 3: see if he's going to be active or not. If not,

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Speaker 3: that's probably a fair deduction. We were talking about Ball State.

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Speaker 3: They've been playing pretty well recently. They have the solid defense,

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Speaker 3: they have that really quick sideline the sideline passing game.

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Speaker 3: And then Carson Steele is I mean, he's the dude

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Speaker 3: that they give all the usage to the running back,

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Speaker 3: breaks a lot of tackles and stuff like that. Ball state.

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Speaker 3: If Daikwon Finn is not able to play for Toledo

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Speaker 3: could be able to keep that close just by controlling

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Speaker 3: the clock and doing their whole grind thing. So take

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Speaker 3: a look at Daiquon Finn status. You know, in the

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Speaker 3: next twenty four hours, several of these other ones. My

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Speaker 3: my justin spread. When I ran it early yesterday, it

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Speaker 3: was basically pick them and so I knew that, you know,

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Speaker 3: the lines are gonna be super close, and they came

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Speaker 3: out and indeed they were, like I have Miami of

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Speaker 3: Ohio minus points six points against Ohio Vegas Openshio, Ohio

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Speaker 3: is at minus one and a half. I had similar

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Speaker 3: lines with both Western Michigan being favor by point three

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Speaker 3: points over Northern Illinois, who's just sort of circling the

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Speaker 3: drain at this point, has had all these injuries. The

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Speaker 3: luck that they had last year in one possession games

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Speaker 3: on fourth down conversions, et cetera, has completely gone the

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Speaker 3: opposite way. So last year they had the dream season

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Speaker 3: winning the MAC, now Northern Illinois having the nightmare season.

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Speaker 3: Western Michigan is favor in that game by one and

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Speaker 3: a half. Western Michigan and the team I love to

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Speaker 3: bet on either I did last week though in in

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Speaker 3: their MACTION game against I'm blanket on it right now,

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Speaker 3: but I'll get it. And then the last one was

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Speaker 3: Central Michigan I had at his point six point favorite

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Speaker 3: against at home against Buffalo. The market right now has

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Speaker 3: Buffalo as a one and a half point favorite. But

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Speaker 3: a whole bunch of these MAC games, the whole point being,

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Speaker 3: are really close to the margins in the right round

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Speaker 3: pick them, so you can basically just pick the side

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Speaker 3: that you think is gonna win. Bowling Green and Ken

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Speaker 3: State is very much like that as well, So yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's sort of pick your poison on on some of

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Speaker 3: that stuff. The Western Michigan North of the Illinois game

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Speaker 3: is just the crap ball game that I don't really

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Speaker 3: want to bet on, but I probably will end up

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Speaker 3: having a bet on it. And and and I Miami

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Speaker 3: of Ohio would be the side I would lean to

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Speaker 3: against Ohio early on. I don't think Miami of Ohio

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Speaker 3: hasn't gotten quite the credit in the markets that they

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Speaker 3: probably should have. Since Gabrick got back, they've been playing

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Speaker 3: decent and it it feels like it's not completely getting

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Speaker 3: baked into the line. But Ohio can't play any defense,

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Speaker 3: so that should be a fun one.

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Speaker 1: And those were the Wednesday you mentioned some of the

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Speaker 1: Wednesday mation ones. Northern Illinois at Western Michigan, Buffalo at

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Speaker 1: Central Michigan, and ken State at Bowling Green the only

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Speaker 1: other one, and it's interesting that they're all close to

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Speaker 1: pick them except that tleeeda ball State and then that

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Speaker 1: Akron Eastern Michigan one, which is the first one to

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Speaker 1: kick everything off, which I think it's Eastern Michigan minus

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Speaker 1: seven and a half, but it looks like your early

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Speaker 1: line has got it at about ten, so there's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of value on that one as well.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and that one I would lean towards Eastern Michigan.

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Speaker 3: I like that Eastern Michigan team. Akron stinks right, like

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Speaker 3: I mean, in my power rankings, they're either the second

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Speaker 3: or the third worst team in the FBS. Akron. I've

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Speaker 3: seen this multiple times this year where the market seems

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Speaker 3: to be a little bit more bullish on the Akron

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Speaker 3: side than they should have been. Wed We've made some

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Speaker 3: money fading Akron a couple times this year. This looks

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Speaker 3: like another spot potentially for me U two fade Akron.

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Speaker 3: You know, got to dig into the statuses on both sides.

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Speaker 3: Eastern Michigan has had some some quarterback health things. We

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Speaker 3: just got to make sure that all that squared away

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Speaker 3: and we're gonna get the full strength Eastern Michigan team.

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Speaker 3: But assuming we are, I'm probably gonna be on the

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Speaker 3: Eastern Michigan that one.

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Speaker 1: All these action games have probably got people going. And

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Speaker 1: if you're looking as you're going to set your picks

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Speaker 1: and make all your wagers, you're looking for a place

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Speaker 1: to track all of those wagers in one place. You

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Speaker 1: got to check out betting prospicktrack or betting pros dot

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Speaker 1: com slash pick dash tracking. It synks up with your

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Speaker 1: sportsbook to tally which picks hit and which miss and

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Speaker 1: gives you a live look at what the public is doing,

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Speaker 1: so you can use real time tracking to determine which

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Speaker 1: place to make and which to fate. I can tell

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Speaker 1: you that is like one of the most important things

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Speaker 1: ever anytime I'm betting to have one place, because I

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Speaker 1: get psychotic if I don't check in all the different

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Speaker 1: places I need it.

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Speaker 2: In one isolated place.

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Speaker 1: You can get on the leaderboard and quickly become a

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Speaker 1: sharp by using the free advice we have to offer

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Speaker 1: over at bettingpros dot com slash Pick, dash tracking.

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Speaker 2: Do it today.

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Speaker 1: Make your life easier. Bet you got enough going on

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Speaker 1: with your bets. Make yourself and your life a little

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Speaker 1: bit easier. Let's go and take a look at We

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Speaker 1: got one rank game coming up on Friday. It's Colorado

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Speaker 1: coming up against number nine USC. So let's talk about

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Speaker 1: this before we get into the Saturday games.

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Speaker 2: What do we got on USC?

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Speaker 3: Well, I wouldn't be able to back Colorado regardless of

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Speaker 3: circumstances on the road here heading to Los Angeles, and

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Speaker 3: with my line is basically spot on with where it

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Speaker 3: is right now in the market. It looks like it

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Speaker 3: opened up on Sunday USC minus thirty one and a half.

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Speaker 3: It's gone up to USC minus thirty three and a half.

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Speaker 3: My justin line in that game is USC minus thirty

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Speaker 3: three point eight a.

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Speaker 1: Thirty four right now as of like this second, some

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Speaker 1: of that line has.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly yeah, and and now, like you know, when

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Speaker 3: it opened, I was showing a couple points on line

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Speaker 3: value on USC, but now the market's gobbled that up.

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Speaker 3: So I mean, you know, once you get up this

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Speaker 3: high at a number like that, thirty four or whatever,

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Speaker 3: you're starting to push the five touchdown thing. The margins

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Speaker 3: of it. It just it gets weird for me where

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Speaker 3: the thing can be decided in the end by you know,

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Speaker 3: late in the fourth quarter, by something outside of the

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Speaker 3: game script. So I absolutely couldn't back Colorado, but I'm

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Speaker 3: not gonna be laying the points of the USC there either.

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Speaker 1: And I gotta tell you, looking at the over under

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Speaker 1: on this game, sixty four when USC is minus thirty

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Speaker 1: four doesn't pass a smell test to me. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's maybe something Thor you can cover on the

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Speaker 1: preview show coming up. That might be a good tease

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Speaker 1: for that show, because there's something there that doesn't quite

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Speaker 1: add up.

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Speaker 3: Am I am?

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Speaker 2: I right here?

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Speaker 3: Could be right? Yeah, Yeah, definitely something to investigate there

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Speaker 3: for sure.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well you guys can you can check that out

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Speaker 1: on the preview show this week right here on the

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros YouTube channel.

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Speaker 2: Make sure you guys are locked in. How about Georgia,

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Speaker 2: Georgia and Mississippi State.

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Speaker 1: Georgia coming off at twenty seven to thirteen win over Tennessee,

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Speaker 1: they went from three to one number one.

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Speaker 2: What do we think about number one of the nation? Georgia.

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Speaker 3: First of all, what a performance on Saturday man a

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Speaker 3: Tennessee team that basically nobody had given trouble all season

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Speaker 3: and george Like the final score makes it look a

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Speaker 3: little bit closer than it actually was. Georgia controlled them

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Speaker 3: from the start of that game. It was never in

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Speaker 3: doubt so to the people that were on Georgia, good

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Speaker 3: handicap and work there. I had to stay away from

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Speaker 3: that one, but Georgia was obviously the right side and

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Speaker 3: that one cash this one. You have a line right

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Speaker 3: now sixteen and a half. It's funny. This one actually

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Speaker 3: came down from the opener. Georgia opened at minus eighteen

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Speaker 3: and a half and then it's come down to sixteen

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Speaker 3: and a half. That's also in line with what my

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Speaker 3: system is showing. My justed line on that game was

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Speaker 3: Georgia minus fifteen point one. I think there might have been,

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Speaker 3: especially with the Bucks, a bit of an overreaction on

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Speaker 3: the Georgia side, you know, sort of sort of in

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Speaker 3: advance adding a couple points attacks on that side. But

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Speaker 3: I think the market was correct in the early money

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Speaker 3: coming in on Mississippi State to shift that one down

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Speaker 3: beneath seventeen. I just think that's more objectively fair. It

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Speaker 3: does take away potentially some line value, you know, if

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Speaker 3: you were looking to get in with the home dog

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Speaker 3: on this one, but it with where the market has

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Speaker 3: it right now, it's moving closer to my adjusted line

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Speaker 3: that Georgia minus fifteen point one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's a pretty big SEC matchup Mississippi

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Speaker 1: State six and three, but only three and three in

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Speaker 1: the SEC. I also see that sixteen and a half,

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Speaker 1: So you think overall this is probably maybe an avoid

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Speaker 1: right now, maybe on both sides sixteen and a half

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Speaker 1: over under, I just.

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Speaker 3: Don't think there's a You're going to find a lot

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Speaker 3: of objective value on the line with with with where

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Speaker 3: it is right now, it would be nice if we

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Speaker 3: get some money in these next couple of days, come

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Speaker 3: in on Georgia, get that thing back to seventeen or

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Speaker 3: even seventeen and a half. But with where it's trending,

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Speaker 3: it looks like it's going more towards the two touchdowns

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Speaker 3: as opposed to hitting back over the seventeen. That's where

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Speaker 3: I would start to perceive line value again.

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Speaker 2: So this is an interesting one.

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Speaker 1: This kind of actually comes back to my theory of

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Speaker 1: that USC game where you know it's over sixty four

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Speaker 1: and then you're saying that there's a thirty point line

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Speaker 1: to Colorado number or not number but three and six.

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Speaker 1: Indiana is going to go to number two Ohio State,

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Speaker 1: who's obviously nine to zero. This is the biggest spread

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Speaker 1: I think that we've talked about and we might actually

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Speaker 1: talk about.

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Speaker 2: I see it.

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Speaker 1: Currently at forty one and a half in the over

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Speaker 1: under at fifty seven.

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Speaker 2: And a half, So you're seeing on a sixteen point.

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Speaker 1: Give that they're putting on Indiana, while one in eighteen

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Speaker 1: in Colorado would be getting thirty.

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Speaker 2: I digress about that moving on and why that's fishy.

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Speaker 1: But forty one and a half points on OSU against Indiana.

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Speaker 2: So what say you that.

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Speaker 3: There's been some movement on this one too. Ohio State

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Speaker 3: open minus thirty one and a half and this thing

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Speaker 3: is shot up to forty. That's that's pretty wild. My

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Speaker 3: just the line is Ohio State minus thirty seven point eight,

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Speaker 3: So I definitely would have agreed with some of that

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Speaker 3: early movement. But man, has there's been a title way

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Speaker 3: of pushing that thing in the you know, sort of

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Speaker 3: the early hours after it opened, to Ohio State now

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Speaker 3: being favored by more than forty. What's interesting about it

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Speaker 3: is we talked last week about a super duper high

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Speaker 3: Ohio State line they were playing Northwestern. Northwestern kept that

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Speaker 3: thing close for a bit, right, and they only lost

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Speaker 3: twenty one to seven. Ohio State has had some games

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Speaker 3: this year where they sort of just sleepwalk through it.

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Speaker 3: And they also have all these inactives, some of which

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Speaker 3: we don't even know in advance, like Jackson Smith and Jig,

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Speaker 3: but has been like the one, like every week it's

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Speaker 3: like is he playing? Is he not? And then when

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Speaker 3: he ends up playing, he invariably only has you know,

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Speaker 3: he plays half the snaps and he gets two catches,

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Speaker 3: So his status has becoming less and less important as

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Speaker 3: we go along. Now they've established a receiving core basically

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Speaker 3: without him. But like in the last game, you find

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Speaker 3: out right before and trade on Henderson ain't gonna be playing.

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Speaker 3: You knew that mayan Williams the game before had had

289
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Speaker 3: an injury, and you're all, you already knew that their

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Speaker 3: third string kit had gotten injured in the preseason, knocked

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Speaker 3: out for the season, so you're already like, oh man,

292
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Speaker 3: that the running back depth is already super precarious. There

293
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Speaker 3: ken My and Williams play. If not who who the

294
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Speaker 3: heck are they gonna throw out? And stuff like that.

295
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Speaker 3: It's just been a weird season for Ohio State. We'll

296
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Speaker 3: butt it that way. I would not want to lay

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Speaker 3: this big of a number with Ohio State, but it

298
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Speaker 3: seems like what the market is telling us early on,

299
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Speaker 3: what they feel early on, is that Ohio State is

300
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Speaker 3: gonna bounce back from that lethargic showing against Northwestern and

301
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Speaker 3: now they're gonna they're gonna they're gonna deck this out

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Speaker 3: manned underdog. Uh, we'll see. Indiana has played scrappy at

303
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Speaker 3: at times, although it's the season is starting to get

304
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Speaker 3: away from them and we're seeing that less and less.

305
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Speaker 3: Like last weekend. You know, they were playing Penn State

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Speaker 3: and they got run off of the field. They've been

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Speaker 3: frisk here in some of their other mats. They did

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Speaker 3: cover I believe against Michigan earlier this year, and then

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Speaker 3: you know, the first three games is when it was

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Speaker 3: rolling there, when they started three and on. Everything's gone

311
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Speaker 3: to crap since then. But man, with forty points, it

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Speaker 3: would be for me, it would be on the Indiana

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Speaker 3: side or pass of that one.

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Speaker 2: That's very interesting.

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Speaker 1: This game probably gonna have a lot of eyes on

316
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Speaker 1: it because no longer they going to really be playoff run.

317
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Speaker 1: But it is still Alabama. Number ten, Alabama who's now

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Speaker 1: seven and two. Often you say that is going up

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Speaker 1: against number eleven Ole miss who's eight and one. So

320
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Speaker 1: this is going to be a huge powerhouse matchup and

321
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Speaker 1: really fascinating to see how Alabama is going to rebound.

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Speaker 2: So what do we got on this game?

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Speaker 3: This line is it's too high this one. I feel

324
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Speaker 3: good about saying that Alabama being favored by eleven and

325
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Speaker 3: a half. My line on that game is Alabama minus

326
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Speaker 3: seven point eight. And you have the couple things going

327
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Speaker 3: on of this is a deflation spot for Alabama, a

328
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Speaker 3: team that every single year it's the playoff aspirations of

329
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Speaker 3: the playoff aspiration. This year it was no different. Last

330
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Speaker 3: week their playoff dreams ended, So you get the classic

331
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Speaker 3: sort of deflight spot and then number two, Alabama has

332
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Speaker 3: been bad on the road this year or I'm sorry

333
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Speaker 3: even going back to last year, since the beginning of

334
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Speaker 3: last year, where we talked about this several times this

335
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Speaker 3: year of like what's going on with Alabama on the road,

336
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Speaker 3: and now not only do you have the deflation thing,

337
00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:25,840
Speaker 3: not only do you have Alabama on the road, but

338
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Speaker 3: you also have Alabama on back to back travel because

339
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Speaker 3: of course last week Saturday night they were in Baton

340
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Speaker 3: Rouge playing Brian Kelly's family and now now they're heading

341
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Speaker 3: to Oxford. I to me, there shouldn't that you got

342
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Speaker 3: to take that Alabama tax away, but the market has not.

343
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Speaker 3: If that thing's in double digits, it's the rebels or

344
00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:48,600
Speaker 3: nothing on that one. And I'm gonna be sniffing around

345
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Speaker 3: the rebels heart this week.

346
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Speaker 1: This is a completely kind of side note, but like,

347
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Speaker 1: how much of this do you put on Bryce Young?

348
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Speaker 1: Like how much has this hurt Bryce Young? Kind of

349
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Speaker 1: in general? I know, or if you guys haven't pay,

350
00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:03,200
Speaker 1: is an incredible college fantasy football player. I saw you

351
00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,080
Speaker 1: posting the sick week you had and Bryce Young was

352
00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:07,920
Speaker 1: on the team, and obviously Bryce has been at the

353
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Speaker 1: top of draft stuff like how much do you think,

354
00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,280
Speaker 1: just real quick, on Bryce Young? The effect of what

355
00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,520
Speaker 1: Alabama is doing is on him very.

356
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Speaker 3: Little, I would say, And you know, I realized that

357
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Speaker 3: there's a little bit of bias there because he is

358
00:16:19,920 --> 00:16:22,320
Speaker 3: the quarterback of my fifty team. Really, but no, no,

359
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,520
Speaker 3: the receiving corp there is what has been the issue.

360
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Speaker 3: And it's crazy when you watch it because you're you know,

361
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,640
Speaker 3: you're used to watching Alabama have minimum of two first

362
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Speaker 3: round receivers out there, and some of these seasons in

363
00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 3: the past they've had four, you know, like we're not

364
00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,360
Speaker 3: used to them having a mediocre receiving corp. This year,

365
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:43,680
Speaker 3: Alabama has a mediocre receiving corp. There are so many

366
00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,280
Speaker 3: different teams around the nation where I would prefer to

367
00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,800
Speaker 3: have their receiving corps to Alabama's. And they had lost

368
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:51,760
Speaker 3: all the NFL guys you know, over and over and

369
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,360
Speaker 3: over again in recent years. That was problem one. And

370
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Speaker 3: then this year what they intended to do to sort

371
00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:01,320
Speaker 3: of patch the holes it was it was a thing

372
00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:04,520
Speaker 3: of like the conjunction of like the guys we signed

373
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Speaker 3: the freshman but hopefully we don't have to use them

374
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Speaker 3: because we got other kids coming up, like the Jacory

375
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,320
Speaker 3: brook says and stuff that had been in the program.

376
00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,600
Speaker 3: And then what Nick wan to do to augment all

377
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:18,160
Speaker 3: that or to definitively plug the holes was signed veterans

378
00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,200
Speaker 3: through the transfer portal. So they had signed Jermaine Burton,

379
00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 3: they from Georgia. Course, they'd signed Harold the Speeds there

380
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:28,680
Speaker 3: from Louisville. Harrold was supposed to replace Jamison Williams, the

381
00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,120
Speaker 3: speed element and whatnot, and then Burton was just supposed

382
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 3: to be the wide receiver one. Well, those guys have

383
00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:37,920
Speaker 3: been buss. Burton has not played well all season long,

384
00:17:38,359 --> 00:17:40,280
Speaker 3: Like he's been on the field for all the snaps.

385
00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:42,760
Speaker 3: He's just not good or hasn't been this year. And

386
00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:45,400
Speaker 3: then Harrol we haven't seen him because he'd been injured,

387
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,280
Speaker 3: so like, and then Nick doesn't seem to trust ja

388
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:50,760
Speaker 3: Corey Brooks anymore. I don't know if that's a route

389
00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,200
Speaker 3: running thing or a hands thing or whatever, but from

390
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:55,520
Speaker 3: the very beginning of the season they weren't playing him,

391
00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:57,240
Speaker 3: So all of a sudden, now they were playing more

392
00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,720
Speaker 3: true freshmen, and they're playing guys that can't get separation,

393
00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:03,479
Speaker 3: and it's tough for Bryce Young because not only is

394
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,639
Speaker 3: he's sort of surveying the field and he's seeing that

395
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:09,920
Speaker 3: his receivers aren't getting separation. When he gets the ball there,

396
00:18:10,440 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 3: a ton of them are dropped. The drops on the

397
00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:15,600
Speaker 3: Alabama receiving corp have been crazy too. And not only that,

398
00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:19,679
Speaker 3: but Bryce Young is behind a down offensive line. Alabama's

399
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,240
Speaker 3: offensive line is the last decade or so have always

400
00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:25,040
Speaker 3: been solid. That thing has fallen off this year as well,

401
00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:28,080
Speaker 3: between the NFL defections and between the guys that they

402
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 3: went out to sign to try to plug the holes,

403
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,400
Speaker 3: not completely you know, being what they thought they were

404
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:36,159
Speaker 3: gonna be. So I don't put it as much on

405
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 3: Bryce Young. I feel like you have Bryce Young and

406
00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,399
Speaker 3: then you have Jamior Gibbs, who's been awesome too, and

407
00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,120
Speaker 3: those guys are a little bit stranded and being let

408
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,280
Speaker 3: down by the supporting cast around them. And that's what

409
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 3: makes Alabama susceptible in some of these games, for instance

410
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,880
Speaker 3: against LSU, because Bryce Young he doing the best he can,

411
00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:55,920
Speaker 3: the receivers just aren't making plays for him.

412
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Speaker 2: And then putting a ball on this game.

413
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Speaker 1: We obviously, you know, we can't have them attacks and everything,

414
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:03,480
Speaker 1: but is this enough that you would want to maybe

415
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 1: get on this line early for Old Miss. I assume

416
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:09,119
Speaker 1: it's gonna move inward. Maybe you're gonna feel differently. I

417
00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 1: feel like it would move inward a little bit where

418
00:19:11,080 --> 00:19:12,920
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a little bit closer, because I think

419
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,840
Speaker 1: you technically have was it four points of value on

420
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:19,520
Speaker 1: this right now in favorful Miss line? Probably through the

421
00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:21,800
Speaker 1: week it comes down maybe nine, maybe even.

422
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:23,280
Speaker 2: A little bit more. Do you think it's worthwhile?

423
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,480
Speaker 1: Do you feel confident enough jumping in on Ole Miss

424
00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:27,320
Speaker 1: at this point with that value and kind of everything

425
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 1: we talked.

426
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Speaker 3: About, This is a really good question with where it's

427
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:33,639
Speaker 3: at with eleven and a half being interested on the

428
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,400
Speaker 3: Mississippi side, I'm not gonna bet it right now because

429
00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,160
Speaker 3: I got leeway for it to drop down to ten,

430
00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:42,480
Speaker 3: right like ten and a half would be the next

431
00:19:42,520 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 3: threshold number where it would be like the bypoint like,

432
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Speaker 3: and if I don't now it's gonna drop to ten,

433
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 3: it's that's gonna hurt me. But I have a full

434
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,640
Speaker 3: number to drop that way. It's been rising the other way.

435
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 3: Could that thing get to thirteen? I don't know. It's

436
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 3: just as close to there as it is to ten.

437
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:02,720
Speaker 3: So the thing. The market has batted this number into

438
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 3: this sort of dead zone, so you can wait and

439
00:20:06,400 --> 00:20:08,120
Speaker 3: see if does it go up the one or does

440
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,160
Speaker 3: it go down the one, and then at that point

441
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 3: you make your decision. But I'm hoping that I'm hoping

442
00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:15,439
Speaker 3: this thing somehow gets up to thirteen. It absolutely shouldn't

443
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,320
Speaker 3: get to thirteen, but if it does, we push it

444
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 3: in on the reps for sure at that point.

445
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:24,080
Speaker 1: How about Tennessee, who obviously is a big disappointment in

446
00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:26,480
Speaker 1: their loss moving down to five, They're gonna be hosting

447
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:30,520
Speaker 1: Missouri SEC matchup. Tennessee is currently set as a twenty

448
00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:33,679
Speaker 1: one point favorite and the line is at fifty six

449
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,440
Speaker 1: and a half. So what do you think about Tennessee

450
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 1: coming off of this loss.

451
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:41,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you have sort of the deflation spot there

452
00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 3: as well, though it's probably not as pronounced as the

453
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 3: Alabama one because the Alabama season is over in terms

454
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 3: of the College Football Playoff and so whereas Tennessee still

455
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:54,440
Speaker 3: has a path to get in, So I'm not gonna

456
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:57,399
Speaker 3: throw them completely into the same thing. However, that was

457
00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 3: a de flighting loss against Georgia. When you come in

458
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,679
Speaker 3: number one in the College Football Playoff, and then you

459
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 3: just go and get smacked around all day. This line

460
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 3: is interesting. Where it opened at Tennessee minus seventeen and

461
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 3: a half. My adjusted line is Tennessee minus seventeen point seven.

462
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,439
Speaker 3: So the books set, you know, dropped a line that

463
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 3: was essentially exactly what my adjusted one is. But the

464
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,880
Speaker 3: market in the day since has beat or even less

465
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,080
Speaker 3: than twenty four hours since has batted Tennessee all the

466
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 3: way up to minus twenty and a half. The market

467
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 3: very clearly believes that Tennessee you're going back home to Knoxville,

468
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,640
Speaker 3: that they're gonna come in and they're gonna they're gonna

469
00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 3: be locked in coming off the lots. They're gonna smack

470
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 3: around this Missouri team. This is one that I'm gonna

471
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,800
Speaker 3: have to look into a little bit more because Missouri

472
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 3: has been super duper frisky this year and they don't

473
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 3: seem to be there. Doesn't seem to be any like

474
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 3: last season stuff with them, Like they're still playing hard

475
00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 3: every game. Last week I think they played Kentucky close.

476
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:01,119
Speaker 3: You know, they had recently upset South Carolina and stuff

477
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 3: like that. The thing I like about the Missouri team

478
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 3: is their defensive front. They have a little bit of

479
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 3: a trump card there. They're they're really really tough and

480
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:14,360
Speaker 3: they're really really active, so they can both address opposing

481
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 3: running games and put heat on the quarterback. This could

482
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 3: be a get right game for Hooker if the pass

483
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 3: protection holds up, because if he has time back there,

484
00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,439
Speaker 3: he should be able to eat the Missouri secondary's lunch.

485
00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 3: But if Missouri can get the heat on him, now,

486
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 3: all of a sudden hendon is he doesn't have the

487
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,119
Speaker 3: benefit of his running game as much because Missouri should

488
00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,400
Speaker 3: clamp down on that better than most teams the Tennessee

489
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,640
Speaker 3: has faced this year. He starts getting into the third,

490
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:46,680
Speaker 3: medium's third and lungs. If Missouri is able to tee

491
00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:48,800
Speaker 3: off on the pass rush, that's where that could come down.

492
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,480
Speaker 3: This is a really interesting handicap. I think the far

493
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 3: A line was where it opened, but the market is

494
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:56,440
Speaker 3: pushing it up like this. Not sure that I could

495
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,360
Speaker 3: lay this many points with Tennessee. And you know, whether

496
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 3: you want to look at it a BOMs back spot

497
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 3: or a deflight spot or whatever. I think the early

498
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 3: value you got about a field goal line of value

499
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,320
Speaker 3: just the market has handed you on Missouri. That would

500
00:23:08,320 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 3: be the side that i'd be looking at. But again,

501
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:12,399
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be handicapping that. I'm pretty hard this week.

502
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 2: Friends.

503
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 1: If you guys are watching on the YouTube, which I

504
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,280
Speaker 1: hope you are, you might see that I have a

505
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:20,040
Speaker 1: lot of autograph memorabilia. I very much enjoy it, and

506
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 1: if you do as well, we're giving you a chance

507
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: to win a signed T. Higgins Cincinnati Bengals helmet. Oh yeah,

508
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 1: this courtesy of our friend's over at Pristine Auction. All

509
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 1: you've got to do is subscribe to the Betting Pros

510
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 1: YouTube channel, which you might already be doing. Go do

511
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 1: there right now, comment below on this video. Super easy.

512
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 2: That's it. That's all you gotta do.

513
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 1: We'll be announcing a winner right here on the channel,

514
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 1: so make sure you got those notifications turned on so

515
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 1: you can be alerted when new episodes are up and

516
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,800
Speaker 1: you can claim your prize. Very very cool. Let's go

517
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 1: and look over at Michigan. We got a big ten matchup,

518
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 1: which you know in most years this is very exciting,

519
00:23:55,600 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: but it's less exciting when Nebraska's three and six. Nebraska

520
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:01,439
Speaker 1: is coming to Michigan. Number Michigan is nine and oh

521
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 1: they are six and oh. Obviously in the Big Ten.

522
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 1: Michigan is number three in the nation. Michigan's coming off

523
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 1: a fifty two to seventeen win over Rutgers, and the

524
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: line we're looking at is twenty nine in favor of

525
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,040
Speaker 1: Michigan with an over under a fifty one and a

526
00:24:16,040 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 1: Big ten matchup in this economy, what's say you thor.

527
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one where it one of those lines

528
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 3: where it remains right on my adjusted line. You said

529
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:28,720
Speaker 3: twenty nine at some bucks, it's twenty eight and a half,

530
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 3: but it's between one of the two. My adjusted line

531
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 3: on that game is Michigan minus twenty eight point one.

532
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 3: So I feel like, at least, you know, at this

533
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 3: point it's a fair line. You know, depending on the

534
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 3: way your handicap takes you, but this is an objectively

535
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 3: fair line. The part about Nebraska that you like to

536
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:51,120
Speaker 3: see is you're wondering about these teams that fired their

537
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 3: coach or that have the lame duck coach coaching staff.

538
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 3: What's the effort going to be like as you play

539
00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 3: out the string, right, because this Nebraska team has no aspirations. Yeah,

540
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 3: sort of looking at it like that, it was positive

541
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,439
Speaker 3: that last week they really gave Minnesota a run for

542
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 3: their money, Like I mean, you know I as you know,

543
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 3: I live in Minneapolis, and there was a lot of

544
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 3: Gopher fans, my buddies texting me on Saturday. The sky

545
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,960
Speaker 3: was falling in and stuff. I mean, the Minnesota fans

546
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:20,479
Speaker 3: really thought they were going to lose to Nebraska and

547
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 3: everyone was all ready to fire PJ. Fleck and run

548
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,439
Speaker 3: them out of town. How can you lose that to

549
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,840
Speaker 3: the corn Oskars. Minnesota did come back and ended up

550
00:25:26,880 --> 00:25:29,959
Speaker 3: winning that game, But whole point being Nebraska showed up,

551
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 3: the effort's been good, you know, and stuff like that.

552
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,560
Speaker 3: That's what you want to see, just so that they're

553
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 3: not the floor mat for a heavily favored opponent like

554
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:42,000
Speaker 3: in this case Michigan. I don't see any like line

555
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,880
Speaker 3: value on on the Michigan side. For me, it would

556
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:47,439
Speaker 3: be looking into it in the handicap. Is there a

557
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:50,880
Speaker 3: way that I can justify a play on Nebraska potentially,

558
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 3: especially if the line moves over thirty, But right now

559
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 3: in this range, I just don't see a line a

560
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,360
Speaker 3: lot of line value on either side.

561
00:25:57,800 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't see how I would want to bet

562
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,120
Speaker 1: this one either way. I know it's still too early

563
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: for the over unders or anything on maybe the under

564
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 1: on this one or.

565
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 3: No, what's the number you're seeing? It was fifty one

566
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 3: fifty one. That's that's interesting. I mean Nebraska the last one,

567
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 3: A big part of this would be of the I

568
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 3: suppose for the total as well. I'm sorry for the

569
00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 3: side as well. Is Casey Thompson going to be back?

570
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 3: You know, he he has this nerve injury and in

571
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 3: his throwing arm or whatever, and he got with held

572
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 3: in the last one. So against Minnesota they had the

573
00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 3: good defensive performance and then they just were trying to

574
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 3: cobble it together as best as they could between Chuba Purty,

575
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,400
Speaker 3: one of their backups, former Florida State kid, the brother

576
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:46,080
Speaker 3: of Brock, and then Logan Smothers the other and he's

577
00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 3: just a scrambler, you know that that can and in fact,

578
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 3: he would have been a good option quarterback I think

579
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 3: if they had still run that system. But if you

580
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 3: got to go, if you got to do the platoon thing,

581
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 3: because that's what they Nebraska did in the last game,

582
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,560
Speaker 3: both those Smothers and already got the snaps. If they

583
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 3: got to do that again against this this the Michigan

584
00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 3: State defense is just gonna laugh at them. Of those

585
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 3: two guys like scrambling around. That's where it becomes difficult

586
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 3: to envision Nebraska scoring many points. And last week, again,

587
00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 3: even with the good effort, they were only able to

588
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 3: put up thirteen points against Minnesota. Ten of those came

589
00:27:19,200 --> 00:27:22,280
Speaker 3: immediately they got I believe they got a touchdown on

590
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 3: the first driving a field goal in the second drive.

591
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:28,119
Speaker 3: But then after that Nebraska went totally cold, and that's

592
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 3: when they started mixing smothers in and whatever. Nebraska didn't

593
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 3: get that last field goal until the fourth quarter. Now,

594
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 3: and that was against Minnesota. Minnesota has a solid defense,

595
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 3: but you were at home in that game. If Casey

596
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 3: Thompson doesn't play in this game and you're in the

597
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 3: big house against that defense, it gets really hard to

598
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 3: envision how Nebraska is gonna score. So, you know, with

599
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 3: with both these things, you're gonna want to check in

600
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 3: on Casey Thompson's status. Does he have any shot of

601
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 3: playing whatsoever in this game? Does it you know, positive, negative, whatever,

602
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 3: But that's the thing you're gonna want to look into.

603
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 1: Something to pay attention for the midweek preview show that

604
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 1: you guys can check out. This might be one of

605
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 1: the most exciting games as well for the card this weekend,

606
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 1: Number four TCU nine and oh going up against number

607
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 1: eighteen Texas six and three. And when you know what,

608
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:19,399
Speaker 1: Texas is favored at home by seven with a big

609
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: old sixty five over under. So TCU Texas a couple

610
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:28,480
Speaker 1: of big rank matchups. Texas has just you know, continuously

611
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 1: done some stuff this year. What do you think about

612
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: this Texas battle?

613
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:37,959
Speaker 3: The disrespect for TCU has been incredible this season. I

614
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 3: was kicking myself last week for not laying the eight

615
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 3: now points when they were playing Tech at home. Like

616
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 3: my system was showing value on TCU. I like the

617
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 3: TCU side as well, but it was suspicious to me

618
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 3: that the line had gotten that low. But no, it

619
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 3: turns out that was just market disrespect as well. You know,

620
00:28:57,040 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 3: it was close to the cover, but TCU did did

621
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 3: get the in the end. Almost every single week you look,

622
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 3: my system is showing value on TCU. This is no different.

623
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:09,959
Speaker 3: This is probably the line I would have predicted it

624
00:29:10,000 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 3: to come out at. But a my system has Texas

625
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 3: minus four point four. So my fair line for this

626
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 3: game will be Texas by four and a half. But

627
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 3: it's again, it's no surprise it's late at seven because

628
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 3: the market doesn't trust nor respect TCU. If you can

629
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 3: get there on your handicap to it my system showing

630
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:30,800
Speaker 3: that you're getting two and half points of line value,

631
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 3: that's another game that I'm going to be investigating quite close.

632
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:37,400
Speaker 3: The Texas defense has improved this year. It's not like

633
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 3: some of those ones we've seen in the past where

634
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 3: they're just Swiss cheese. In this game, they got a

635
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 3: real puzzle on their hands with TCU. It's a team

636
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 3: that can run extremely effectively. I think that's probably the

637
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 3: underrated part of them because you think about Sunny Dikes,

638
00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 3: you think about the spread and everything like that, you're

639
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 3: not thinking as much about that. But Miller, the running

640
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 3: back that they had who last year was split in

641
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 3: that touches with Zach Evans. Now Miller's getting most of

642
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 3: the running back ones and he might be a better

643
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 3: player than Zach. Evans like that. That kid can play,

644
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 3: and he's he has a diverse game where he can

645
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 3: do the receiving stuff as well. And then Max do

646
00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 3: get in the quarterback. His best thing has always been

647
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 3: the scrambling ability, so he adds the rushing utility along

648
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 3: with that, and then Max Dugan has taken a big

649
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 3: step up in terms of the passing and what TCU

650
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 3: is able to do. It's both the efficiency with the

651
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 3: running game, but they also get the explosive plays in

652
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 3: the passing game. So it's just really hard to stop

653
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 3: that offense because even if you sort of address one thing,

654
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 3: another thing opens up for them. How can Texas sort

655
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 3: of you know, responded to these multiple different things. And

656
00:30:40,200 --> 00:30:43,160
Speaker 3: then on the TCU side, Texas has a better defense

657
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 3: than TCU. TCU's defense has been good enough so far

658
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 3: this year in every game for them to go underfeed

659
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 3: it to this point. But they got their ron puzzle

660
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 3: on their hands. Kansas State, I can tell you it

661
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 3: did not enjoy their time with b John Robinson last week.

662
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:00,200
Speaker 3: And I can tell you as someone who is playing

663
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 3: against Jon Robinson in my fifty team college fantasy football playoffs,

664
00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 3: I didn't have a fun time with that one either,

665
00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:09,840
Speaker 3: because Bjeon Wu was doing basically whatever he wanted. TCU

666
00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 3: is gonna have to slow down Bijon somehow. And also,

667
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 3: of course Quinn you Weres in the throwing downfield thing.

668
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 3: Quen you has been up and down, up and down.

669
00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:19,479
Speaker 3: But if you get a locked in, youwers here. You

670
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 3: know again they're gonna have to slow down, Bejon somehow.

671
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 3: While addressing yours as well, This is a really fascinating

672
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 3: game that I'm sure we will talk be talking about

673
00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 3: a lot the rest of the week.

674
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 2: And obviously, like you said, more details on it.

675
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 1: Do you think there's any value if you're kind of

676
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 1: slowly sitting on the TCU side you want to lock

677
00:31:37,120 --> 00:31:39,479
Speaker 1: in or do you think it can move the other direction?

678
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 3: This one? I would I will likely be buying a

679
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 3: ticket at seven and then, but like it would, it

680
00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 3: wouldn't be for what my full play would be because

681
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 3: with how little the market has respected TCU this year,

682
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 3: this thing could toggle this seven and a half, Like

683
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 3: I can't you know, I can't discount that possibility, but

684
00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 3: you know, for a partial bet, locking in that seven

685
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 3: just in case it falls to the six and a half.

686
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,400
Speaker 3: But it could go either way, right Like to me,

687
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 3: there's sort of equal odds going to six and a half,

688
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 3: going to seven and a half. We'll see how long

689
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 3: it remains static at seven. But yeah, I'll be locking

690
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:18,200
Speaker 3: in a little bit at that seven number for.

691
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 1: Sure, all right, number ten, LSU is going to be

692
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:27,080
Speaker 1: playing against Arkansas man at disappointing Arkansas SEC battle LSU. Again,

693
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 1: there's a fishiness here. LSU is a favorite on the road,

694
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 1: but only by three. The over unders said it's sixty two,

695
00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 1: but a three point favorite LSU on the road against

696
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 1: Arkansas who disappoints it every turn they can possibly go

697
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 1: for you, So, what do you think about this game

698
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 1: and why is it only LSU minus three?

699
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 3: What I think is that I agree with you, that

700
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 3: is super fishy. Yeah, last week we saw LSU have

701
00:32:52,120 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 3: one of their best performances, that maybe their best performance

702
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 3: of this season in beating Alabama. And not only that,

703
00:32:58,080 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 3: like they played really well in that game, and then

704
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:01,959
Speaker 3: at the end, you know, they had to do their

705
00:33:02,000 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 3: stand everything like that, and then the two point conversion

706
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:08,560
Speaker 3: at the very end, Like throughout they showed toughness as well.

707
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 3: It wasn't just the performance, it was you know, the

708
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 3: the you know, all the team specific stuff as well.

709
00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 3: And and and we talked last week about how they've

710
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 3: been ascending and sending and sending and then you know,

711
00:33:18,240 --> 00:33:21,560
Speaker 3: now even more so after that, then on the Arkansas side,

712
00:33:22,000 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 3: they had arguably one of the most embarrassing performances on Saturday.

713
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:29,560
Speaker 3: Arkansas is lucky that not more people saw that. I

714
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 3: guess the way that I would put it, because they

715
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 3: were playing Liberty in the middle of the day. It

716
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 3: was like some wonky time slot. I was looking for

717
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:38,920
Speaker 3: it on the TV. I was having a hard time

718
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 3: finding the thing Liberty at the I mean, it's really

719
00:33:43,600 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 3: bad Liberty there. So the their first string quarterback, Charlie Brewer,

720
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 3: he has not been able to come back. They thought

721
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:52,719
Speaker 3: maybe they would get him back this month, but it

722
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,760
Speaker 3: hasn't happened. He's like, it's it's been slow. Caden Salted,

723
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 3: their second string quarterback, he might be out for this season.

724
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 3: He had he had third I think on his groin,

725
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:03,959
Speaker 3: but he couldn't play either. Then their third string quarterback,

726
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,560
Speaker 3: Jonathan Bennett, he had the flu all week and it

727
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 3: was really really bad. He couldn't practice. So I actually

728
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,320
Speaker 3: thought heading into Saturday that it was going to be

729
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,240
Speaker 3: the fourth stringer that we had never heard of before.

730
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 3: But then Jonathan Bennett ends up starting for Liberty, their

731
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 3: third straight quarterback. But he does. He did so with

732
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,319
Speaker 3: zero practices last week. Zero. There was there was no

733
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:27,879
Speaker 3: indication or no reason to think that Liberty could even

734
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 3: remain competitive in that game against Arkansas. You know, a

735
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:35,600
Speaker 3: quality SEC team. Liberty controlled the game. It beat Arkansas.

736
00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:37,799
Speaker 3: I don't know how this job at the Bett kid,

737
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:41,480
Speaker 3: you know, without having practice and he's a physically limited kid. Anyway,

738
00:34:41,680 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 3: how they were able to do that. Hugh Freeze is

739
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:46,279
Speaker 3: doing a fabulous job. I don't want to get off

740
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,280
Speaker 3: on a tangent on that direction, but like, Hugh Freeze

741
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,439
Speaker 3: is doing a great job. But in terms of this game,

742
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 3: Arkansas now only being the three point home fav it

743
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:57,839
Speaker 3: is a little bit fishy based on what we saw

744
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 3: last weekend, especially may A j The line on this

745
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,000
Speaker 3: game is LSU minus four point eight. So I'm definitely

746
00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 3: showing value on that LSU side. This is one that

747
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be investigating this week. Is there any weird

748
00:35:10,600 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 3: potential inactives on either side that maybe aren't obvious on

749
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 3: the surface, is you know, is anything else you know

750
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:20,759
Speaker 3: in that sort of van But yeah, it's that's a

751
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:24,359
Speaker 3: surprising opener for sure. LSU only be in favor by three.

752
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,640
Speaker 1: On the road, Louisville is going to Clemson number twelve.

753
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:31,920
Speaker 1: Clemson now after a thirty five fourteen loss to Notre Dame.

754
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 1: Very very disappointing there for Clemson. Of course, they are

755
00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 1: a seven point favorite in this ACC matchup with a

756
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:42,240
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half line. Not that it's fishy

757
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 1: or anything, but with how Clemson's play to touch the

758
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:46,160
Speaker 1: home touchdown.

759
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 2: Favorite, I don't know, take a look at that.

760
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 3: I don't know.

761
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 1: It does not quite the smell test of like the

762
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 1: other ones. But do you think that's a little low?

763
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: Is there any value here?

764
00:35:53,880 --> 00:35:56,240
Speaker 3: Well, this is one where I feel like the market

765
00:35:56,440 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 3: is more how would you say, more per actively responding

766
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 3: to recent stimuli. Then a couple of those other games

767
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 3: that we just talked about. My adjusted line on this

768
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:11,240
Speaker 3: game is Clemson minus nine nine flat. That the number

769
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:14,439
Speaker 3: live is is Clemson minus seven. But Clemson just got

770
00:36:14,440 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 3: embarrassed on Saturday. That that was that was really bad

771
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 3: against Notre Dame. I mean, like for that Notre Dame

772
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 3: team that is way way down to basically put their

773
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 3: their hand on Clemson's head and little brother them the

774
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 3: entire game and Clemson's flailing away trying to hit him

775
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 3: and not getting close. That was pretty telling for for

776
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 3: where Clemson is actually at and then with Louisville, they've

777
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 3: been really impressing in recent weeks. They'd had the really

778
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 3: big win over wake Forest weekend before last. This past weekend,

779
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,960
Speaker 3: they were one of the few teams that that I

780
00:36:49,000 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 3: lost money on. I tried to back the other side

781
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:54,600
Speaker 3: James Madison playing in Louisville because it seemed to me

782
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 3: like a classic letdown spot and just a weird situational

783
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 3: spot of Louisville, even though they were playing, well, now

784
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:04,120
Speaker 3: you got to play, you know, this newcomer to the FBS,

785
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 3: this new G five team and the sun Belt or whatever.

786
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 3: I didn't think that Louisville that their effort would be,

787
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 3: you know, analogous to the week before, but it was.

788
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:15,520
Speaker 3: They controlled James Madison. They ran them off the field.

789
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 3: So Louisville is I mean that team. I was getting

790
00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 3: ready to write Sadderfield's obituary like back in September, and

791
00:37:24,200 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 3: they've sort of flipped the script on this thing. Louisville

792
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 3: is becoming dangerous. But I mean we're talking about traveling

793
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:34,479
Speaker 3: to Clemson here. That for me, what the market's done

794
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 3: here is it's basically the two points. It's just that

795
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 3: those recent events. I do think probably the value right

796
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:43,879
Speaker 3: now is on Clemson. But you got to go through

797
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 3: the numbers and you got to feel pretty comfortable about

798
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:48,640
Speaker 3: what you're seeing because you know that if you do that,

799
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:51,719
Speaker 3: you're going to be opposing this Louisville team that their

800
00:37:51,880 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 3: arrow is pointing. I can't believe what I'm saying this,

801
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:55,800
Speaker 3: because again I was ready to stick that fork in

802
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 3: sadderfield in that team. Louisville's arrow is pointing sharply up

803
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 3: right now is more pointing downwards. I think that explains

804
00:38:02,920 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 3: that two point discrepancy.

805
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:06,840
Speaker 1: If you want free picks, player props, and breakdowns on

806
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 1: almost every game the college football has to offer, you

807
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 1: can join Thor and Mike Ferrell for Game Day Live,

808
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 1: presented by DraftKings, each and every Saturday, starting at ten

809
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:19,040
Speaker 1: thirty am Eastern. You got questions you need answered, well,

810
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:21,239
Speaker 1: our teams, a team of experts, are going to help you.

811
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 2: Where We're live for.

812
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 1: Ninety minutes of NonStop action leading up to kickoff. To

813
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,320
Speaker 1: join the live stream and toss your questions in the chat.

814
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 2: Do it today, and that is what.

815
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:32,040
Speaker 3: You can do, my friends.

816
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 2: You can go check out for on Twitter at four ku.

817
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,279
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818
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:38,080
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819
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 1: the action.

820
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 2: This week, we gave you guys a couple bets that

821
00:38:40,600 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 2: you guys can get in on, maybe early right now,

822
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 2: and Thour is going to get you locked up for

823
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 2: the rest of the week.

824
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 1: This has been the Betting Pros College Football early look

825
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 1: Ahead with Thor. I'm Welsh friends, We'll talk to you

826
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 1: next time. Good luck on your bets. This week we'll

827
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 1: get in on some action by Barnes

828
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 2: Fos