WEBVTT - Stocks Tumble as Year’s Winning AI Bets Take a Hit

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<v Speaker 2>Daily Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's broaden out a little bit and let's get into

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<v Speaker 3>maybe investors have they been reacting since we got that

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<v Speaker 3>FED decision and what we are seeing with investment flows

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<v Speaker 3>and what's going on in terms of activity.

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<v Speaker 1>For that, we turned to Stephanie gild, chief investment officer

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<v Speaker 1>over at Robinhood Markets. You joined us here in the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week Studio. Stephanie, I wanted to start with

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<v Speaker 1>what's happening on the Robinhood platform because you certainly have

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<v Speaker 1>a certain segment of the investing population.

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<v Speaker 4>What are you seeing on Robinhood right now?

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<v Speaker 5>We're seeing still not buying, but it's it's been more muted,

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<v Speaker 5>i'd say, than it was before, and it's been in

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<v Speaker 5>some of the things that have been going down or

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<v Speaker 5>had like Netflix, for example, You've also seen where there's

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<v Speaker 5>been sales, it's been more in the AI oriented names.

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<v Speaker 5>So I've kind of shared this before, but our customers

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<v Speaker 5>tend to hold corepositions and trade around them, meaning they

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<v Speaker 5>buy when they go down and sell when they go up.

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<v Speaker 5>But we're seeing a little bit differently where there seem

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<v Speaker 5>to be like being more subjective about what they're investing in.

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<v Speaker 5>And that's why I say, like it was kind of

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<v Speaker 5>interesting to see in video being sold and you know,

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<v Speaker 5>things that are kind of under.

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<v Speaker 3>Pressure, so selling as rather than selling as they have

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<v Speaker 3>gone up a lot and taking some profits, they're selling

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<v Speaker 3>as they're going down.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, but they probably have embedded profits because they will

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<v Speaker 5>them all year. So I think that's like kind of

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<v Speaker 5>giving up a little bit on the AI trade for now.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, like I totally get it.

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<v Speaker 3>Like you know, Tim and I were talking about Oracle,

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<v Speaker 3>like it is still up almost fourteen percent year to date,

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<v Speaker 3>but we've seen a more than forty percent decline from.

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<v Speaker 6>Some of them when it hit a record back in

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<v Speaker 6>in September.

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<v Speaker 3>Excuse me, so, I mean, are there how much can

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<v Speaker 3>you dig deeper into.

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<v Speaker 6>The data in terms of what you're seeing?

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<v Speaker 3>Is it mag seven names that people are getting out

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<v Speaker 3>of Is it all tech?

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<v Speaker 6>Is it just AI related? Like what are you just say?

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<v Speaker 5>I related that I've seen, and then some of the

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<v Speaker 5>like core we you know those kind of names are like.

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<v Speaker 6>Cloud, Yeah, exactly.

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<v Speaker 5>You've also seen some buying in just broad based ETFs

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<v Speaker 5>and some t bill oriented ones that like kind of

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<v Speaker 5>make me feel like diversification, you know, kind of parking

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<v Speaker 5>things rather than trying to pick.

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<v Speaker 1>So less playing the market and more like long term

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<v Speaker 1>diversified index funds I think for.

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<v Speaker 5>Now, Like for now, usually we see that activity when

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<v Speaker 5>there's a big dip, like they go into ETFs first

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<v Speaker 5>and then they play the differences and names.

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<v Speaker 4>How are they playing this? Uh?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't want to call it a crypto winter yet,

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<v Speaker 1>but we're down another three percent on bitcoin, hovering around

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<v Speaker 1>ninety thousand dollars per bitcoin right now.

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<v Speaker 4>How's that played out?

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<v Speaker 5>Of the last couple of weeks in the stocks, I've

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<v Speaker 5>seen actually some buying and like the micro strategy names,

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<v Speaker 5>but on the crypto side, have actually seen more selling

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<v Speaker 5>than buying.

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<v Speaker 4>Interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So instead of actually holding the patterns that you're seeing,

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<v Speaker 1>instead of actually holding the cryptocurrency, people are instead putting

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<v Speaker 1>money into the proxies or the hoarders.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah there, I mean, if you can make that relationship.

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<v Speaker 5>I kind of look at two different dashboards and crypto versus,

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<v Speaker 5>but I did think it was interesting to see buying

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<v Speaker 5>into the the equity related.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, because certainly strategy has had its own set of

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<v Speaker 1>of challenges. Okay, so let's bo back out a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit big macro picture right now. We haven't had a

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<v Speaker 1>chance to speak to you in a few weeks, and

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<v Speaker 1>given what we heard from Jay Powell, we just heard

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<v Speaker 1>from Mike McKee about different views of the economy coming

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<v Speaker 1>from different people, where do you sit.

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<v Speaker 5>I think the economy's okay, actually, like I think when

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<v Speaker 5>you're this is totally anecdotal, but at my feeling is

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<v Speaker 5>that like New York City is busy, travel is lot,

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<v Speaker 5>like I actually think the consumers generally okay. That being said,

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<v Speaker 5>the lower end consumer is still not doing well, and

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<v Speaker 5>I don't think they've been doing well for a while.

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<v Speaker 2>So I actually and I.

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<v Speaker 5>Do think things got overvalued market wise, So I do,

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<v Speaker 5>and I also think that the FED is caught between

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<v Speaker 5>a rock and a hard place because you do have

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<v Speaker 5>this explosive growth growth in the AI trade growth and

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<v Speaker 5>credit markets, and so they have to kind of worry

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<v Speaker 5>about that being overblown and that creating increased inflation. Obviously

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<v Speaker 5>we don't know what's going to happen with terrorists, but

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<v Speaker 5>that's creating an issue for them too. Then you do

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<v Speaker 5>have the lower end consumer that is still struggling. So

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<v Speaker 5>it makes me think of like Europe post two thousand

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<v Speaker 5>and eight, when they had to worry about like Spain

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<v Speaker 5>versus Germany. And so that's why I think there's so

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<v Speaker 5>much of a debate within the FED. And you know,

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<v Speaker 5>Powell did say, like, don't even look at the data

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<v Speaker 5>that's going to come out next week.

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<v Speaker 7>Do you agree with him?

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<v Speaker 6>Who doesn't yet?

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<v Speaker 5>I yes, I'm like, and I don't. I worry about

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<v Speaker 5>the quality of it too. Like in general, I.

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<v Speaker 3>Want to ask you about I'm looking you know, we're

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<v Speaker 3>almost at the end of the year, so we can

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<v Speaker 3>look at the S and P five hundred, the major

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<v Speaker 3>industry groups and see what really did well or didn't do.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, communications services names thirty one percent, higher information

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<v Speaker 3>tech twenty three percent. So even though I mean the

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<v Speaker 3>mag seven, even if we start to see you know,

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<v Speaker 3>pullbacks on some of these names or the AI trade

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<v Speaker 3>still outperforming. Industrials up almost twenty percent, financials up thirteen percent.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm looking at the S and P Composite Pharmaceuticals Index.

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<v Speaker 3>It's up of almost twenty one percent. Now, yeah, yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>finally exactly. So I'm just curious, what else can you

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<v Speaker 3>you dig deeper in a year where we've talked so

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<v Speaker 3>much about AI, We've talked about rare earths, we have

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<v Speaker 3>seen some you know m and a activity going on.

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<v Speaker 6>What is it that you have also.

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<v Speaker 3>Seen that are interesting and you can get an idea

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<v Speaker 3>of what investors are interested in what they are not interesting?

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<v Speaker 5>Have been kind of starting I've been bottom fishing, like

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<v Speaker 5>we've been, yeah, sort of store. I sorted like the

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<v Speaker 5>Russell one thousand into you know, top and bottom players,

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<v Speaker 5>and it just felt like there was a rotation that

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<v Speaker 5>started on October twenty ninth, which was when we had

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<v Speaker 5>that like six percent pullback, and a lot of those names,

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<v Speaker 5>like of the top one hundred, the ones that are

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<v Speaker 5>up the most one hundred most this year, forty one

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<v Speaker 5>of them are in a negative return since October twenty ninth.

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<v Speaker 5>So I've been We've been kind of looking around, being

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<v Speaker 5>like where is there still growth? And I actually think

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<v Speaker 5>like the other thing we've been doing this year is

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<v Speaker 5>investing with in alignment to fiscal policy because we do

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<v Speaker 5>think like what the Trump administration is doing is important

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<v Speaker 5>to understand, and I think the consumer is going to

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<v Speaker 5>be more important for them this year or coming into

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<v Speaker 5>the next year, I should say. And so we've been

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<v Speaker 5>looking more in like the retail space of players that

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<v Speaker 5>are interesting and so.

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<v Speaker 6>So retailers, tailor and brand names.

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<v Speaker 5>In retail, like on holding Lululemon, like they're down, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>they're down double digits this year or maybe not, maybe

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<v Speaker 5>not on after the yes yearly so yes, there is

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<v Speaker 5>down fifty percent, it's up ten percent or so today,

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<v Speaker 5>And so we just think like there is value to

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<v Speaker 5>be found there while we wait to see what happens

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<v Speaker 5>in the tech world.

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<v Speaker 1>But on a Lulu for example, there seems doesn't a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of that depend on who the next CEO of

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<v Speaker 1>the company is, and they don't even know who that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be.

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<v Speaker 5>There is execution risks there now for thee with obviously

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<v Speaker 5>the change in the CEO, but I think it also

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<v Speaker 5>it lost some shine on its brand, and I think

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<v Speaker 5>they have done a lot to try to turn that around,

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<v Speaker 5>and you've seen that in gap this year, which is

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<v Speaker 5>also like, I think they're further into that journey, but

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<v Speaker 5>I think it actually creates an opportunity.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, perhaps been doing really well of late.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's now up about eleven percent year to date.

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<v Speaker 3>But your point is right that if the consumer feels

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<v Speaker 3>better and is out there spending, if we get more

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<v Speaker 3>juice in terms of the way of stimulus, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>whether you believe it's the right strategy or not, if

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<v Speaker 3>there's more money in the pocket of consumers.

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<v Speaker 8>Trying not to invest.

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<v Speaker 3>In my heart, I know, I know, I know, I

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<v Speaker 3>know it's going to go somewhere, and so there are

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<v Speaker 3>names that will certainly benefit. Great staff love digging deep

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<v Speaker 3>into your platform. Stephanie Gilch, chief investment office at robin

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<v Speaker 3>Hood Markets, Joining us right here on Bloomberg Business Week Daily.

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<v Speaker 4>Stay with us.

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<v Speaker 1>More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming up after this.

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<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily Podcast. Catch us

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<v Speaker 3>All right, let's get to a stock we've been talking about.

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<v Speaker 3>We're talking about Lululemon. Stock is the number one gainer

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<v Speaker 3>in both the S and P five hundred Nasdaq one hundred,

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<v Speaker 3>up just shy of twelve percent. Even so, the stock

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<v Speaker 3>is still down forty five percent year to date. We

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<v Speaker 3>did see the stock rally after the company boosted its

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<v Speaker 3>full year outlook and announced him that it's CEO would

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<v Speaker 3>step down.

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<v Speaker 1>The company searching for a replacement for Calvin McDonald. Do

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<v Speaker 1>will depart the top post at the end of January.

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<v Speaker 1>Putamgyle is Bloomberg Intelligence Senior analyst, free Commerce anath Leisure.

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<v Speaker 1>She joins us from New Jersey. So, first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>were you as surprised by the market as the market

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<v Speaker 1>was by this move?

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<v Speaker 9>You know, I kind of expected a move similar to

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<v Speaker 9>this because Little Lemon has just not been performing well, right,

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<v Speaker 9>So when you have instances in retail where there's just

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<v Speaker 9>no point of understanding how they're going to turn this

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<v Speaker 9>business around, when it takes a longer time, there is

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<v Speaker 9>usually some sort of management change. So this was in

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<v Speaker 9>my mind a little overdue. And it'll be interesting to

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<v Speaker 9>see on who fills these shoes, because I think that's

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<v Speaker 9>key to the turnaround in the vision that they put forward.

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<v Speaker 1>So on that, who do you think, like, what are

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<v Speaker 1>some names that are being banded about the analyst community

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<v Speaker 1>right now?

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<v Speaker 9>You know, names I don't know about, but we do

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<v Speaker 9>know that we want to product lead. I would like

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<v Speaker 9>to see a product led leader because at the end

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<v Speaker 9>of the day, retail is about product and Lula Lemon

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<v Speaker 9>needs to bring its product back in play ahead of

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<v Speaker 9>competition and really where consumers feel like they're getting something

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<v Speaker 9>that they can't get anywhere else.

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<v Speaker 6>You know, it's interesting.

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<v Speaker 3>First of all, you go to the dees page of

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<v Speaker 3>Lululemon and under management.

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<v Speaker 6>There's no no names there right now, which I don't know.

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<v Speaker 6>Is there something wrong with my screen or I don't know?

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<v Speaker 1>You think, point, how often is it that we see

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<v Speaker 1>a CEO exited.

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<v Speaker 4>Ye out a plan for a new one? Yeah, exactly,

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<v Speaker 4>a big deal yesterday.

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<v Speaker 6>So that's a good point put him.

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<v Speaker 3>You say, it's long overdue, and so like, why isn't

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<v Speaker 3>it that they internally or the board didn't say this

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<v Speaker 3>ain't working because he's been there for a few years now,

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<v Speaker 3>So why why did it take them so long? Or

0:10:45.480 --> 0:10:47.640
<v Speaker 3>did they not give him enough time to figure it out.

0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:50.360
<v Speaker 3>Calvin MacDonald we're talking about.

0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:53.160
<v Speaker 9>Well, he's been with Little Lemon for seven years, I

0:10:53.160 --> 0:10:55.880
<v Speaker 9>think since twenty eighteen, right, so he's had a bairent

0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:58.720
<v Speaker 9>amount of time there when he came on board. The

0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:01.559
<v Speaker 9>excitement once you know all about the personal care remember

0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:04.600
<v Speaker 9>us talking about it. Where will they enter this business

0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.040
<v Speaker 9>that has seventy eighty percent margins and it would be

0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:11.079
<v Speaker 9>so great? And I'd say during the pandemic, things were

0:11:11.120 --> 0:11:14.520
<v Speaker 9>working great, right for not just them, for anyone who

0:11:14.600 --> 0:11:17.360
<v Speaker 9>had active war. That is how people dressed. That was

0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:19.400
<v Speaker 9>the movement. It was to be healthy, it was to

0:11:19.480 --> 0:11:22.160
<v Speaker 9>be out, It was to work out and really lounge

0:11:22.160 --> 0:11:25.440
<v Speaker 9>at home while you're working. So what happened post pandemic?

0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:28.440
<v Speaker 9>And that's really where we kind of think about what

0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:32.200
<v Speaker 9>did the leadership do to stay ahead of trends? And

0:11:32.240 --> 0:11:35.200
<v Speaker 9>I think as we exited the pandemic, we didn't see

0:11:35.200 --> 0:11:38.400
<v Speaker 9>as much innovation as we would have liked, because you

0:11:38.480 --> 0:11:43.000
<v Speaker 9>saw competitors like Alo, like Vori and others really come

0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:47.080
<v Speaker 9>in with competitive product, sometimes at similar price points and

0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:50.360
<v Speaker 9>took mind share and wallet share of the shopper. So

0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:54.400
<v Speaker 9>that just brought us to question, do we need vision

0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:58.640
<v Speaker 9>from a leader that has the product background to really

0:11:58.760 --> 0:12:01.640
<v Speaker 9>drive a product ledterc And keep in mind, over the

0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:07.160
<v Speaker 9>last few years, Lululeman has had several leaders leave the company,

0:12:07.240 --> 0:12:08.520
<v Speaker 9>so there has been turnover.

0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:11.520
<v Speaker 3>You know, it's interesting you go back to Yeah, I

0:12:11.520 --> 0:12:12.600
<v Speaker 3>forgot about that when.

0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:13.920
<v Speaker 6>He came in.

0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:16.120
<v Speaker 3>His background, I mean, he had been president CEO of

0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:20.520
<v Speaker 3>Sephora USA for five years, right, So the expectation.

0:12:20.120 --> 0:12:21.719
<v Speaker 4>Was Sears I think before that run and.

0:12:21.640 --> 0:12:22.320
<v Speaker 6>Sears before that.

0:12:22.400 --> 0:12:25.160
<v Speaker 3>But the Sephora thing I find interesting because people kind

0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:27.560
<v Speaker 3>of love that model. I mean, was the hope right

0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:30.040
<v Speaker 3>that they was he was going to bring actual products right,

0:12:30.240 --> 0:12:35.360
<v Speaker 3>like whether and which do have incredibly high margins, whether

0:12:35.400 --> 0:12:37.040
<v Speaker 3>it's I don't know, is it skincare? Like what was

0:12:37.080 --> 0:12:39.000
<v Speaker 3>it that he they thought he was going to bring in?

0:12:40.120 --> 0:12:42.680
<v Speaker 9>So do you remember like the dry powder? You know,

0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:44.480
<v Speaker 9>we all go work out and your hair is kind

0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:46.319
<v Speaker 9>of sweaty, and you're like, I'd love to gift shape

0:12:46.320 --> 0:12:49.040
<v Speaker 9>them powder and go with. So they added dry powder.

0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:53.000
<v Speaker 9>They try to deoder. And the thing is with Sephora,

0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:55.959
<v Speaker 9>you're not looking for performance in all your product. When

0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:58.319
<v Speaker 9>you moved to an active airline, you need to solve

0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:02.840
<v Speaker 9>for performance, and that's not easily done. In fact, I

0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:04.959
<v Speaker 9>don't even know if there's a product today out there

0:13:05.480 --> 0:13:08.920
<v Speaker 9>that actually works to solve real performance issues. I think

0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:10.520
<v Speaker 9>it's still a hole in the market.

0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:15.760
<v Speaker 3>It's called anyone take a shower? I mean to be honest, like, yeah,

0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:17.680
<v Speaker 3>there's no I don't go work out and then like

0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:18.400
<v Speaker 3>go out to dinner.

0:13:18.480 --> 0:13:21.199
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, and like, you know something for shoes. I don't know.

0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:21.840
<v Speaker 7>I don't know.

0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:23.599
<v Speaker 6>Well, I don't know if you're doing yoga you're in

0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:24.080
<v Speaker 6>bare feet.

0:13:24.120 --> 0:13:25.080
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, that's a good point, you know.

0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:27.040
<v Speaker 3>Can I just say, like I was thinking about the

0:13:27.040 --> 0:13:28.720
<v Speaker 3>pair of yoga pants I wear all the time.

0:13:28.880 --> 0:13:29.920
<v Speaker 6>It's Outdoor Voices.

0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:32.160
<v Speaker 4>I bought them. Has that company has had its own

0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:34.200
<v Speaker 4>share of iterations.

0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:36.200
<v Speaker 3>Years ago though, And it was because my daughter wanted

0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:37.160
<v Speaker 3>something and I'm like, these.

0:13:36.960 --> 0:13:37.600
<v Speaker 6>Are really cool.

0:13:37.600 --> 0:13:40.280
<v Speaker 3>But it was innovative because they had these side pockets

0:13:40.559 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 3>and I use them for traveling. I can throw my

0:13:42.400 --> 0:13:44.520
<v Speaker 3>cell phone in and so and so. So it's not

0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:47.080
<v Speaker 3>been Lulu that I have picked up something.

0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:48.960
<v Speaker 1>Well put them Come on in on the idea of

0:13:49.000 --> 0:13:51.880
<v Speaker 1>brand value here, because Chip Wilson is a name we

0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:54.920
<v Speaker 1>haven't mentioned in a few minutes he's the founder of Lululemon.

0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:58.640
<v Speaker 1>He's outspoken. Everybody remembers what happened when he was CEO

0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:00.960
<v Speaker 1>of the company. He's out with a state. He's got

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:05.320
<v Speaker 1>like a pr agency. He says, quote, the erosion of

0:14:05.400 --> 0:14:08.680
<v Speaker 1>premium brand value in the company's core markets demonstrates that

0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:12.480
<v Speaker 1>the board does not understand its target customers anymore or

0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:16.920
<v Speaker 1>what will drive shareholder value at Lululemon over the long term.

0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:21.000
<v Speaker 1>He blasted them in this statement earlier this morning. Is

0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:22.800
<v Speaker 1>that view widely held by analysts.

0:14:24.360 --> 0:14:27.520
<v Speaker 9>I think you can blame anyone right about now because

0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:31.520
<v Speaker 9>lul Lemon hasn't been able to perform as it did historically.

0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:35.160
<v Speaker 9>But that said, you have to remember that the landscape

0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:39.760
<v Speaker 9>has very quickly changed because everyone has access to consumers,

0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:44.280
<v Speaker 9>everyone has access to intelligence and data and technology, and

0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:48.000
<v Speaker 9>you're leveling the playing field. Lulu Lemon's brand still has

0:14:48.160 --> 0:14:51.040
<v Speaker 9>great brand equity. Don't get me wrong. It's still a

0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:53.880
<v Speaker 9>very well known and preferred brand, and its sales are

0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:58.400
<v Speaker 9>very strong internationally, especially China where many can't even get

0:14:58.440 --> 0:15:01.120
<v Speaker 9>in and get it right. So I do give them

0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:04.240
<v Speaker 9>credit for their international growth. I give them credit for men,

0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:07.120
<v Speaker 9>I give them credit for digital. It's just when it

0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:10.480
<v Speaker 9>comes to women, they just haven't had the innovation. I

0:15:10.520 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 9>really think it's a product missed up. They need more innovation.

0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:17.040
<v Speaker 9>They need a constant flow of new products that excite

0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:19.360
<v Speaker 9>and delight the customer, and they haven't been able to

0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:20.640
<v Speaker 9>do that. Well. I agree with you.

0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:22.240
<v Speaker 3>I've walked it in out of there, and I really

0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:24.800
<v Speaker 3>do like the quality of their their stuff. I think

0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:26.320
<v Speaker 3>there is something to be said for that. But I

0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:28.200
<v Speaker 3>agree with you, Punam. I walk in and I'm like,

0:15:28.280 --> 0:15:30.000
<v Speaker 3>kind of seen it all before, or I've got it

0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:33.600
<v Speaker 3>already at home, and so I need something else. Chip

0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:36.440
<v Speaker 3>Wilson just real quickly thirty seconds. Does he have much sway?

0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:39.480
<v Speaker 3>I was just looking at the HDS function on the Bloomberg.

0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:40.440
<v Speaker 6>Does he still only.

0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:44.080
<v Speaker 1>Calls himself the top independent active shareholder?

0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:45.760
<v Speaker 4>He calls himself that today.

0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:48.640
<v Speaker 9>I don't have the numbers in front of me, but

0:15:48.680 --> 0:15:50.800
<v Speaker 9>he definitely is among the top, and I would say

0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 9>he does have, you know, some push, especially when a

0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:55.960
<v Speaker 9>company isn't doing well right, so you have to think

0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:59.280
<v Speaker 9>about the dynamics that play here. Little Lemon isn't performing

0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:03.440
<v Speaker 9>while their results domestically are not anywhere where we would

0:16:03.480 --> 0:16:05.720
<v Speaker 9>like to see them and they're not going to meet

0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:09.320
<v Speaker 9>their twenty twenty six targets based on our analysis. So

0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:12.520
<v Speaker 9>at this point, I think when you have a founder

0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:15.880
<v Speaker 9>who really established this company, right, who really brought into

0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:17.000
<v Speaker 9>it through, he does.

0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:19.320
<v Speaker 3>Have a say all right, Punham, thank you, thank you,

0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:22.240
<v Speaker 3>have a great weekend, Punam Goyle. She's Bloomberg Intelligence Senior

0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:24.840
<v Speaker 3>analyst for e Commerce and eth Leisure. Been following this company,

0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:26.920
<v Speaker 3>as you can tell, knows it inside and out for

0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:28.320
<v Speaker 3>many years.

0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:32.920
<v Speaker 2>This is the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast. Listen live

0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:36.240
<v Speaker 2>each weekday starting at two pm Eastern on applecar Play

0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:39.000
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0:16:39.040 --> 0:16:42.200
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0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:46.160
<v Speaker 2>New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 1>Well a defense system that could defend the US from

0:16:50.720 --> 0:16:54.680
<v Speaker 1>the nuclear missile arsenals of Russia, China, and North Korea.

0:16:55.280 --> 0:16:57.640
<v Speaker 1>It's the so called Golden Dome and iunce just days

0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:00.840
<v Speaker 1>into President Trump's second administration. The president has said the

0:17:00.840 --> 0:17:03.280
<v Speaker 1>project will cost about one hundred and seventy five billion

0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:06.080
<v Speaker 1>dollars and it'll be completed by the end of his term.

0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:09.760
<v Speaker 1>In twenty twenty nine, but defense experts say those targets

0:17:09.800 --> 0:17:13.000
<v Speaker 1>are unrealistic. Bloomberg analysis on the final price tag could

0:17:13.000 --> 0:17:16.639
<v Speaker 1>reach many multiples of that, And Carol, the tech not

0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:18.760
<v Speaker 1>even confirmed that could actually work.

0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:21.520
<v Speaker 3>You know, I think what I find fascinating reminds me

0:17:21.560 --> 0:17:24.120
<v Speaker 3>of like President Reagan and is Star Wars.

0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.600
<v Speaker 4>We talked about in like grade school as not working.

0:17:27.560 --> 0:17:30.360
<v Speaker 3>Right exactly, although you kind of understood where he's going,

0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:33.760
<v Speaker 3>but this certainly feels like and is more of a reality.

0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:36.960
<v Speaker 1>Well, it's a Bloomberg big take and just a fantastic read.

0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:41.120
<v Speaker 1>Joining us now is Santa Paschenker, Bloomberg News space reporter. Also,

0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:44.800
<v Speaker 1>Wayne Sanders joins us. He's Bloomberg News Bloomberg Intelligence Senior

0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:48.280
<v Speaker 1>Defense chanalyst. Santa joins us from Washington, DC. Wayne joins

0:17:48.359 --> 0:17:52.280
<v Speaker 1>us from Maryland. First, Sana, I want to start with you,

0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:55.840
<v Speaker 1>Carol said, the whole concept reminds her of Star Wars

0:17:55.920 --> 0:17:59.760
<v Speaker 1>during the Reagan administration. But explain exactly how the Golden

0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:02.840
<v Speaker 1>Dome would work, the satellites, the missiles, what would happen?

0:18:04.320 --> 0:18:05.120
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, totally.

0:18:05.240 --> 0:18:08.080
<v Speaker 10>So the Golden Dome is intended to be a multi

0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:12.160
<v Speaker 10>layered defense missile defense shield. So the way it would

0:18:12.200 --> 0:18:15.200
<v Speaker 10>work is like, in the case of an attack from

0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:20.320
<v Speaker 10>an adversary like Russia, North Korea, or China, a nuclear

0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:23.800
<v Speaker 10>missile would first encounter a space based layer of defense,

0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:27.760
<v Speaker 10>which would include space space missile interceptors, and that technology

0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:31.959
<v Speaker 10>doesn't yet exist, but those are intended, those which were

0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:36.240
<v Speaker 10>outlined in President Trump's executive Order as a requirement of

0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:40.560
<v Speaker 10>the Golden Dome would attempt to counter the missile at

0:18:40.600 --> 0:18:43.560
<v Speaker 10>the very first stage, which is in space, and then

0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:46.280
<v Speaker 10>if they make it past that space based layer of defense,

0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:49.520
<v Speaker 10>there would be other layers of defense, including the high

0:18:49.600 --> 0:18:53.280
<v Speaker 10>atmosphere and even on the ground like using Patriot and

0:18:53.320 --> 0:18:57.240
<v Speaker 10>bad batteries to intercept different types of missiles that could

0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:58.560
<v Speaker 10>be launched from adversaries.

0:18:58.600 --> 0:19:02.080
<v Speaker 4>So it's really like, go ahead, Sorry I interrupted you.

0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:04.640
<v Speaker 10>Oh, I was just gonna say. It's really like there's

0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:07.560
<v Speaker 10>a net on every single level that is hoping to

0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:09.880
<v Speaker 10>engage those missiles and destroy them.

0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:11.840
<v Speaker 4>Okay, we're going to cool.

0:19:11.840 --> 0:19:14.320
<v Speaker 1>We're gonna get to the astronomical price tag in just

0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:17.600
<v Speaker 1>a minute with this, and also the how realistic a

0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:19.440
<v Speaker 1>solution such as this is. But first I want to

0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:22.639
<v Speaker 1>bring in Wayne Sanders. He's Bloomberg Intelligence senior defense analyst.

0:19:22.720 --> 0:19:25.560
<v Speaker 1>He joins us from Maryland, Wayne as Santa and the

0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:30.800
<v Speaker 1>team right in the piece. Up to now, the strategy

0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:35.080
<v Speaker 1>to prevent annihilation of the United States has really depended

0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:40.240
<v Speaker 1>on deterrence, this idea of mutually assured destruction and nuclear deterrence.

0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:44.520
<v Speaker 1>Why why do we need to make a change there?

0:19:46.800 --> 0:19:49.680
<v Speaker 11>Well, I think the first really important piece is there

0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:53.520
<v Speaker 11>is a lot that actually goes on within within missile defense,

0:19:53.520 --> 0:19:56.359
<v Speaker 11>ballistic missile defense within the United States that we already have.

0:19:56.600 --> 0:19:59.040
<v Speaker 11>And one of the biggest you know, precursors to Gold

0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:01.240
<v Speaker 11>and Dome was really looking out and saying we have

0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:04.600
<v Speaker 11>a lot of capability that is not interoperable. We have

0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:08.400
<v Speaker 11>capabilities like Lockheed's AG's defense for the Navy. We've got

0:20:08.680 --> 0:20:11.680
<v Speaker 11>ballistic missile defense of Guam, and we have the FAD

0:20:11.760 --> 0:20:14.360
<v Speaker 11>batteries that that Saana brings up as well as well

0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:18.200
<v Speaker 11>as Patriot and Factory interceptors. We have a lot of capability,

0:20:18.200 --> 0:20:20.760
<v Speaker 11>but what we don't have is the ability to see

0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:22.960
<v Speaker 11>all of those, to include the sensor layer that she

0:20:23.040 --> 0:20:27.520
<v Speaker 11>brings up as well. We have tracking layers from ground

0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:28.919
<v Speaker 11>as well as in the air as well as in

0:20:28.960 --> 0:20:34.160
<v Speaker 11>space and so long range determined discrimination radars, next generation

0:20:34.280 --> 0:20:35.640
<v Speaker 11>overhead persistent you know.

0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:36.760
<v Speaker 7>All these different things.

0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:38.840
<v Speaker 11>But what they don't do is all talk to the

0:20:38.880 --> 0:20:41.480
<v Speaker 11>senior military leaders at the same time and say, I

0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:44.760
<v Speaker 11>can see a launch coming from country X, it's going

0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:47.200
<v Speaker 11>to take x amount of time to get to get

0:20:47.200 --> 0:20:50.359
<v Speaker 11>to the US or to one of our allies. You know,

0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:52.840
<v Speaker 11>you can shoot a hypersonic missile from mainland China and

0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:56.159
<v Speaker 11>reach South Korea and Japan in six to eleven minutes.

0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:59.720
<v Speaker 11>You can reach Australia in fifteen minutes. That's that is

0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:01.919
<v Speaker 11>a very very quick turnaround in terms of trying to

0:21:01.960 --> 0:21:04.720
<v Speaker 11>make a decision. And if you're only picking it up

0:21:04.760 --> 0:21:08.280
<v Speaker 11>based off of one commander who has happens to be

0:21:08.359 --> 0:21:11.040
<v Speaker 11>in a submarine or a surface vessel that sees this,

0:21:11.760 --> 0:21:13.800
<v Speaker 11>they've got to get that to the National Command, the

0:21:13.880 --> 0:21:16.840
<v Speaker 11>National Military command authority to make those decisions a lot faster.

0:21:17.520 --> 0:21:20.320
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think about, you know, weighing all of the

0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:24.000
<v Speaker 3>layers of this, and yes, there's missiles, and you know,

0:21:24.040 --> 0:21:25.679
<v Speaker 3>I go back to my college days and we were

0:21:25.680 --> 0:21:30.080
<v Speaker 3>talking about ICBMs and you know, deterrence, and you know

0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:33.040
<v Speaker 3>how that kind of changed warfare. But but what I

0:21:33.040 --> 0:21:36.159
<v Speaker 3>guess what I'm curious about, you know, throwing drones into

0:21:36.200 --> 0:21:38.240
<v Speaker 3>this and this is a whole other kind of lower

0:21:38.840 --> 0:21:42.919
<v Speaker 3>level I just think about what's needed to protect ourselves

0:21:42.960 --> 0:21:47.800
<v Speaker 3>against that, The cost, the implications, how does that even

0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:49.639
<v Speaker 3>just kind of complicate or add to the cost of

0:21:49.680 --> 0:21:50.040
<v Speaker 3>all of this.

0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:55.000
<v Speaker 11>Well, absolutely, you know the layered defense that Sona brings

0:21:55.080 --> 0:21:58.520
<v Speaker 11>up absolutely hundred percent. You have exo atmospheric you think

0:21:58.520 --> 0:22:00.879
<v Speaker 11>about those ICBM threats, You think about things that are

0:22:00.880 --> 0:22:02.480
<v Speaker 11>going to go into space and come back down.

0:22:02.880 --> 0:22:04.280
<v Speaker 7>We have to be able to reach those.

0:22:05.000 --> 0:22:07.280
<v Speaker 11>But you also then have the drone swarm fight that

0:22:07.400 --> 0:22:09.359
<v Speaker 11>is also out there right So part of the Pentagons

0:22:09.400 --> 0:22:12.919
<v Speaker 11>Replicator one point zero and Replicator two point zero initiative

0:22:13.280 --> 0:22:15.800
<v Speaker 11>is being able to counter drones and then be able

0:22:15.800 --> 0:22:17.800
<v Speaker 11>to add to our own arsenal. So when you look

0:22:17.840 --> 0:22:22.080
<v Speaker 11>at a billion plus dollars for drone development and counter

0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:26.359
<v Speaker 11>uas for the twenty twenty six NDAA, a lot of

0:22:26.400 --> 0:22:28.719
<v Speaker 11>that in the Golden Dome piece is really looking at

0:22:28.760 --> 0:22:32.320
<v Speaker 11>high powered microwaves. It's looking at high energy laser technologies

0:22:32.680 --> 0:22:36.159
<v Speaker 11>and companies that are out there right now building these things.

0:22:36.280 --> 0:22:39.480
<v Speaker 11>So they can counter that threat, so that the strategic

0:22:39.560 --> 0:22:43.200
<v Speaker 11>level capabilities, the expensive pack freeze right, four to six

0:22:43.240 --> 0:22:47.840
<v Speaker 11>million dollars to fire those patriot at the PAC three interceptors.

0:22:48.320 --> 0:22:49.920
<v Speaker 11>You don't want to do that against the thirty thousand

0:22:49.920 --> 0:22:52.720
<v Speaker 11>dollars drone. So being able to put all these pieces

0:22:52.760 --> 0:22:55.480
<v Speaker 11>together and make sure that you can identify the capability

0:22:55.800 --> 0:22:57.400
<v Speaker 11>and shoot it down with the right thing.

0:22:58.040 --> 0:22:59.440
<v Speaker 6>So how to come back in on this? All I

0:22:59.440 --> 0:23:00.920
<v Speaker 6>can think about is the price tag.

0:23:00.960 --> 0:23:02.920
<v Speaker 3>You know, I've been I've been to countries like Costa

0:23:03.000 --> 0:23:05.080
<v Speaker 3>Rica where I think they spend nothing on military and

0:23:05.080 --> 0:23:07.840
<v Speaker 3>what they can do in terms of education and healthcare

0:23:07.880 --> 0:23:11.520
<v Speaker 3>and just different things. Yeah, it's just so talk to

0:23:11.560 --> 0:23:13.240
<v Speaker 3>us about the cost because I think what was it

0:23:13.640 --> 0:23:15.640
<v Speaker 3>back in October.

0:23:14.960 --> 0:23:17.760
<v Speaker 1>Seventy five billion? Is is what the President said the

0:23:17.760 --> 0:23:18.600
<v Speaker 1>project would cost?

0:23:19.000 --> 0:23:20.680
<v Speaker 3>Right, go ahead, No, But what I was going to

0:23:20.720 --> 0:23:23.760
<v Speaker 3>say is that we already have a budget deficit that's

0:23:23.880 --> 0:23:27.720
<v Speaker 3>topping and logging a one point eight trillion dollar mark.

0:23:27.840 --> 0:23:30.200
<v Speaker 3>What would something like like Tim put out a number?

0:23:30.200 --> 0:23:32.800
<v Speaker 3>What the president thinks? What did you guys find out?

0:23:32.840 --> 0:23:34.439
<v Speaker 3>And can we afford to do this?

0:23:34.840 --> 0:23:36.679
<v Speaker 6>Sound like my husband? Can we afford to do this?

0:23:38.320 --> 0:23:42.639
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, totally. So when we kind of estimated how much

0:23:42.720 --> 0:23:45.080
<v Speaker 10>it would cost to defend against an all out attack

0:23:45.240 --> 0:23:48.960
<v Speaker 10>from the combined nuclear arsenals of Russia, China, and North Korea.

0:23:49.040 --> 0:23:52.520
<v Speaker 10>So think worst case scenario, the defense systems that we

0:23:52.560 --> 0:23:55.960
<v Speaker 10>would need to really successfully counter that would cost about

0:23:56.040 --> 0:23:59.040
<v Speaker 10>one point one trillion dollars, so way more than what

0:23:59.080 --> 0:24:01.960
<v Speaker 10>Trump is claiming as one hundred and seventy five billion,

0:24:02.080 --> 0:24:05.280
<v Speaker 10>if you're adhering to the requirements that he's outlining in

0:24:05.280 --> 0:24:07.399
<v Speaker 10>the Executive Order, which is that you know, this golden

0:24:07.440 --> 0:24:11.720
<v Speaker 10>dome will protect against any foreign aerial attack. And then

0:24:11.800 --> 0:24:14.200
<v Speaker 10>but you know, a golden dome that protects a little

0:24:14.200 --> 0:24:17.040
<v Speaker 10>bit less could be built more cheaply, even though that's

0:24:17.080 --> 0:24:19.600
<v Speaker 10>not maybe exactly what he said in the Executive Order.

0:24:20.440 --> 0:24:23.240
<v Speaker 10>So we also calculated the cost of one that a

0:24:23.280 --> 0:24:26.280
<v Speaker 10>golden dome that could protect against an all out attack

0:24:26.320 --> 0:24:29.240
<v Speaker 10>from just one adversary like Russia, and we found that

0:24:29.240 --> 0:24:31.560
<v Speaker 10>that even that was still eight hundred and forty four

0:24:31.560 --> 0:24:32.400
<v Speaker 10>billion dollars.

0:24:33.080 --> 0:24:34.040
<v Speaker 2>And you know a.

0:24:33.960 --> 0:24:37.720
<v Speaker 10>Lot of these costs are just from procuring the systems,

0:24:37.800 --> 0:24:39.800
<v Speaker 10>and a lot of them don't even exist yet. Like

0:24:39.840 --> 0:24:43.520
<v Speaker 10>I mentioned, space based interceptors, is something that President Trump

0:24:43.560 --> 0:24:46.120
<v Speaker 10>specifically states in the Executive Order needs to be part

0:24:46.160 --> 0:24:49.160
<v Speaker 10>of this Golden Dome, and that technology doesn't even exist yet,

0:24:49.480 --> 0:24:51.719
<v Speaker 10>so you would need a lot of you know, research

0:24:51.800 --> 0:24:54.399
<v Speaker 10>and development money as well, and we didn't even include

0:24:54.400 --> 0:24:58.120
<v Speaker 10>that in our analysis. So you know, it's I think

0:24:58.200 --> 0:25:03.159
<v Speaker 10>it's pretty well known that that that's a potentially underestimate

0:25:03.280 --> 0:25:05.639
<v Speaker 10>of what this would actually cost if it is built

0:25:05.720 --> 0:25:08.440
<v Speaker 10>to what he's stating in the Executive Order.

0:25:08.320 --> 0:25:09.919
<v Speaker 1>Then how do you get that number, SAWNA up to

0:25:09.960 --> 0:25:13.359
<v Speaker 1>one point one trillion dollars this maximum risk scenario estimate?

0:25:13.400 --> 0:25:14.440
<v Speaker 1>What does that calculate?

0:25:15.800 --> 0:25:18.199
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, So what we did is we kind of so

0:25:18.280 --> 0:25:21.960
<v Speaker 10>the nuclear arsenal of Russia, North Korean and China, those

0:25:22.280 --> 0:25:24.840
<v Speaker 10>numbers of what missiles they have have been published by

0:25:24.840 --> 0:25:28.199
<v Speaker 10>the Defense Intelligence Agency. So what we did was we

0:25:28.200 --> 0:25:30.719
<v Speaker 10>did analysis to kind of find out how many defense

0:25:30.720 --> 0:25:33.600
<v Speaker 10>systems we would need to really protect against all of

0:25:33.640 --> 0:25:37.320
<v Speaker 10>these missiles coming at the United States at once. And

0:25:37.359 --> 0:25:40.280
<v Speaker 10>you know, we did that using a combination of Pentagon documents,

0:25:40.359 --> 0:25:44.480
<v Speaker 10>prototype contracts, think tank estimates, and so we kind of

0:25:44.480 --> 0:25:48.239
<v Speaker 10>compiled all these costs of all the defense systems as

0:25:48.240 --> 0:25:51.600
<v Speaker 10>well as the quantity of the defense systems needed to

0:25:51.640 --> 0:25:54.200
<v Speaker 10>come up with this final number of one point one trillion.

0:25:54.320 --> 0:25:56.800
<v Speaker 3>All right, So, Wayne, we live in a world where

0:25:56.840 --> 0:25:59.600
<v Speaker 3>we talk a lot about AI and you know tech spend,

0:25:59.640 --> 0:26:01.919
<v Speaker 3>and you know you've got to do upgrades on things

0:26:01.960 --> 0:26:04.639
<v Speaker 3>like this. Isn't a case of we build this dome

0:26:04.800 --> 0:26:07.080
<v Speaker 3>and set it and forget it right or help me

0:26:07.080 --> 0:26:07.399
<v Speaker 3>out here.

0:26:07.440 --> 0:26:07.960
<v Speaker 6>Are we going to.

0:26:07.880 --> 0:26:11.040
<v Speaker 3>Constantly having to be doing kind of upgrades, improvements and

0:26:11.080 --> 0:26:11.480
<v Speaker 3>so on.

0:26:13.200 --> 0:26:14.679
<v Speaker 7>No, they're definitely going to require that.

0:26:15.040 --> 0:26:17.440
<v Speaker 11>I think a lot of the AI integrators that you're

0:26:17.560 --> 0:26:20.400
<v Speaker 11>already seeing right even with one of the Golden Dome

0:26:20.440 --> 0:26:25.560
<v Speaker 11>pieces early on was Palentteer with SpaceX and saying, hey,

0:26:25.600 --> 0:26:27.760
<v Speaker 11>we want to be able to play in this space

0:26:27.800 --> 0:26:31.800
<v Speaker 11>as well. During the bidding portion for Golden Dome, you're

0:26:31.840 --> 0:26:33.639
<v Speaker 11>going to end up having to do that. So a

0:26:33.680 --> 0:26:36.760
<v Speaker 11>lot of this also includes, like cybersecurity, making sure that

0:26:36.800 --> 0:26:39.440
<v Speaker 11>you have the open system architecture necessary to be able

0:26:39.440 --> 0:26:43.280
<v Speaker 11>to provide the upgrades. But like Saana said too, is

0:26:43.320 --> 0:26:45.879
<v Speaker 11>you also have to build the scalability. You're still going

0:26:45.920 --> 0:26:48.919
<v Speaker 11>to come down to industrials. You have to build the

0:26:48.960 --> 0:26:51.159
<v Speaker 11>satellites capable of doing this. You have to build the

0:26:51.240 --> 0:26:53.800
<v Speaker 11>radars and the sensors to be able to meet that,

0:26:53.880 --> 0:26:56.280
<v Speaker 11>and then you have to get to the interceptor's point

0:26:56.680 --> 0:26:58.320
<v Speaker 11>to be able to do that. Right, you and I

0:26:58.359 --> 0:27:00.879
<v Speaker 11>we've had this conversation before. If you even take just

0:27:00.960 --> 0:27:06.240
<v Speaker 11>the pack three interceptors, right, they're using the Patriot system locked.

0:27:06.320 --> 0:27:08.240
<v Speaker 11>You know, they were at five hundred and fifty per

0:27:08.359 --> 0:27:10.679
<v Speaker 11>year that they build and then you're they're up to

0:27:10.800 --> 0:27:13.399
<v Speaker 11>seven fifty that they're hoping for twenty twenty six, twenty seven.

0:27:13.880 --> 0:27:16.680
<v Speaker 11>They're adding additional lines, so they're doing a great job

0:27:16.720 --> 0:27:19.520
<v Speaker 11>of actually being able to reach some of the demand.

0:27:19.600 --> 0:27:21.880
<v Speaker 7>But those are for ground based Patriot systems.

0:27:22.359 --> 0:27:24.360
<v Speaker 11>If you're now all of a sudden trying to add in,

0:27:24.800 --> 0:27:28.720
<v Speaker 11>I need to create an interceptor capability space based interceptor

0:27:28.760 --> 0:27:30.679
<v Speaker 11>that's going to be in orbit, that's going to go

0:27:30.720 --> 0:27:33.679
<v Speaker 11>on these satellites. You've got to build to that capacity

0:27:33.720 --> 0:27:36.720
<v Speaker 11>as well, and then add on to all of that piece, Right,

0:27:36.920 --> 0:27:38.600
<v Speaker 11>is that AI integration.

0:27:38.720 --> 0:27:40.920
<v Speaker 7>Every time that there is something new that.

0:27:41.119 --> 0:27:43.080
<v Speaker 11>China RuSHA does, we have to be able to make

0:27:43.119 --> 0:27:46.080
<v Speaker 11>sure that we can defend that in the cybersecurity arena

0:27:46.440 --> 0:27:47.920
<v Speaker 11>for the satellite platform.

0:27:47.600 --> 0:27:49.800
<v Speaker 1>Themselves, Wayne, we got to run, but just yes or no?

0:27:49.960 --> 0:27:52.520
<v Speaker 1>Does this happen by the end of President Trump's term?

0:27:53.600 --> 0:27:53.800
<v Speaker 7>No?

0:27:53.880 --> 0:27:56.720
<v Speaker 11>Phase one can happen where interoperability all their stuff can

0:27:56.760 --> 0:27:58.280
<v Speaker 11>happen space based noe.

0:27:58.520 --> 0:28:01.720
<v Speaker 1>All right, if the ballroom was going to get done, No,

0:28:01.880 --> 0:28:03.479
<v Speaker 1>that's an easier it's not in space.

0:28:05.560 --> 0:28:09.000
<v Speaker 3>Saana Pashankar and of course our Wayne Sanders, thank you

0:28:09.040 --> 0:28:09.400
<v Speaker 3>so much.

0:28:09.440 --> 0:28:10.440
<v Speaker 6>Incredible story.

0:28:11.960 --> 0:28:14.760
<v Speaker 1>Stay with us more from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming

0:28:14.840 --> 0:28:15.720
<v Speaker 1>up after this.

0:28:19.440 --> 0:28:23.439
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Weekdaily podcast. Catch us

0:28:23.520 --> 0:28:26.960
<v Speaker 2>live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. Listen

0:28:27.000 --> 0:28:30.480
<v Speaker 2>on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,

0:28:30.720 --> 0:28:34.080
<v Speaker 2>or watch us live on YouTube.

0:28:35.040 --> 0:28:37.600
<v Speaker 4>You know today's an IPO day, is it? Yeah?

0:28:37.600 --> 0:28:41.240
<v Speaker 1>Wealth Front started trading. That's the robo advisor fintech company.

0:28:41.520 --> 0:28:41.960
<v Speaker 6>Yeah.

0:28:42.120 --> 0:28:44.120
<v Speaker 1>I think UBS was supposed to buy it a few

0:28:44.200 --> 0:28:47.960
<v Speaker 1>years ago. It's now trading just up about three point

0:28:48.040 --> 0:28:51.560
<v Speaker 1>three percent value though, at a two point one billion dollars.

0:28:51.920 --> 0:28:53.240
<v Speaker 4>Wow, how can its debut today?

0:28:53.320 --> 0:28:54.200
<v Speaker 6>I didn't see that, did it.

0:28:54.320 --> 0:28:54.880
<v Speaker 5>What's it doing?

0:28:55.160 --> 0:28:58.560
<v Speaker 4>It's up three point two percent? Oh interesting, Yeah you could.

0:28:58.560 --> 0:28:59.640
<v Speaker 1>It's not too late to add to one of your

0:28:59.640 --> 0:29:01.080
<v Speaker 1>Gainers maybe do an honorable mention it.

0:29:01.360 --> 0:29:04.320
<v Speaker 6>I am so overwhelmed with Gainers today.

0:29:04.680 --> 0:29:05.000
<v Speaker 4>Christy.

0:29:05.240 --> 0:29:07.920
<v Speaker 1>You well, he's not a robo advisor. He's a real

0:29:08.000 --> 0:29:10.920
<v Speaker 1>person we're talking about. Andrew Cries, chief investment officer at

0:29:11.000 --> 0:29:14.240
<v Speaker 1>Crescent Grove Advisors. The firm has about five billion dollars

0:29:14.320 --> 0:29:18.760
<v Speaker 1>in assets under management. Andrew joins us from Milwaukee this afternoon. Andrew,

0:29:18.760 --> 0:29:20.840
<v Speaker 1>good to have you on the program. Last time you

0:29:20.880 --> 0:29:23.640
<v Speaker 1>were here with us in the studio. A lot has

0:29:23.640 --> 0:29:26.360
<v Speaker 1>happened since then, and I'm you know, a lot of

0:29:26.440 --> 0:29:29.200
<v Speaker 1>questions I think too, as we just heard from Jordan

0:29:29.280 --> 0:29:32.960
<v Speaker 1>and from Charlie about where we are or are not

0:29:33.120 --> 0:29:36.320
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to AI spend and an AI bubble.

0:29:36.320 --> 0:29:38.120
<v Speaker 4>How are you looking at that in the context of

0:29:38.160 --> 0:29:38.720
<v Speaker 4>the trade.

0:29:40.040 --> 0:29:43.480
<v Speaker 12>Yeah, everybody wants to know where this AI theme is going.

0:29:43.720 --> 0:29:46.360
<v Speaker 12>And also great to be with you. So I think

0:29:46.720 --> 0:29:51.120
<v Speaker 12>from our perspective, the risk going forward is that the

0:29:51.320 --> 0:29:53.280
<v Speaker 12>so much is in the price at this point, right,

0:29:53.320 --> 0:29:56.680
<v Speaker 12>You've got such a sort of perfect outlook that's being

0:29:56.720 --> 0:29:59.880
<v Speaker 12>priced into these companies at this point. In a particular,

0:30:00.000 --> 0:30:02.680
<v Speaker 12>take a company like Oracle, where you're seeing more debt

0:30:02.680 --> 0:30:05.640
<v Speaker 12>funding come into play as opposed to you know, some

0:30:05.680 --> 0:30:08.640
<v Speaker 12>of the other MAG seven members that are largely funding,

0:30:08.800 --> 0:30:11.360
<v Speaker 12>they're spending out of free cash flow. You know, you

0:30:11.360 --> 0:30:14.840
<v Speaker 12>introduce sort of a unique element to that specific stock.

0:30:14.880 --> 0:30:18.000
<v Speaker 12>But ultimately, you know, people are saying, can they deliver

0:30:18.120 --> 0:30:21.200
<v Speaker 12>on the promise the productivity gains, the you know, the

0:30:21.320 --> 0:30:24.600
<v Speaker 12>ultimately the earnings, the return on invested capital, all this

0:30:24.680 --> 0:30:27.480
<v Speaker 12>money that's being sunk into this theme, can we see

0:30:27.480 --> 0:30:31.480
<v Speaker 12>that produce something of value? And if not, then I

0:30:31.480 --> 0:30:34.680
<v Speaker 12>think these valuations are probably a little bit hard to justify.

0:30:34.760 --> 0:30:37.720
<v Speaker 12>So it's it's data point by data points, sort of

0:30:37.880 --> 0:30:39.720
<v Speaker 12>case by case is you as you look at it.

0:30:39.760 --> 0:30:41.880
<v Speaker 12>But that's certainly top of mind as you move into

0:30:41.960 --> 0:30:42.960
<v Speaker 12>twenty twenty six.

0:30:45.840 --> 0:30:49.920
<v Speaker 3>When clients come to you and I know it's long term,

0:30:49.960 --> 0:30:51.120
<v Speaker 3>and they it's about you know.

0:30:51.400 --> 0:30:52.800
<v Speaker 1>They say, I want to go back in time when

0:30:52.840 --> 0:30:54.840
<v Speaker 1>I want you to put all my money in Vidia

0:30:54.840 --> 0:30:55.400
<v Speaker 1>ten years ago?

0:30:55.520 --> 0:30:57.880
<v Speaker 3>No no, no, no, no, no, yeah, yeah, exactly right,

0:30:57.960 --> 0:30:59.400
<v Speaker 3>or by Bitcoin ten years ago?

0:31:00.280 --> 0:31:01.440
<v Speaker 6>Where do they want to put money?

0:31:01.520 --> 0:31:03.680
<v Speaker 3>And I understand everybody's got their own individual goals and

0:31:03.680 --> 0:31:04.760
<v Speaker 3>a lot of it's about you.

0:31:04.720 --> 0:31:08.400
<v Speaker 6>Know, maintaining wealth, not only growing it.

0:31:08.400 --> 0:31:10.640
<v Speaker 3>But so I'm just curious, what is it that they

0:31:10.840 --> 0:31:14.440
<v Speaker 3>ask you most about when it comes to different trends, narratives,

0:31:14.680 --> 0:31:15.560
<v Speaker 3>investment plays.

0:31:17.000 --> 0:31:19.080
<v Speaker 12>I think right now, what we've heard a lot from

0:31:19.160 --> 0:31:23.560
<v Speaker 12>clients is just this uncomfortable sense about this rally. You know,

0:31:23.680 --> 0:31:27.120
<v Speaker 12>since libration day kind of off the April lows that

0:31:27.200 --> 0:31:31.040
<v Speaker 12>it just feels uncomfortable for some reason. You get a

0:31:31.080 --> 0:31:32.840
<v Speaker 12>lot of talk about all time highs and do we

0:31:32.920 --> 0:31:37.000
<v Speaker 12>pull back with our equity allocations, and certainly we're not

0:31:37.040 --> 0:31:38.840
<v Speaker 12>opposed to taking some chips off the table and in

0:31:38.840 --> 0:31:42.000
<v Speaker 12>particular thinking about where do we rotate to find relative

0:31:42.080 --> 0:31:44.320
<v Speaker 12>value across markets? And you know, I think one of

0:31:44.360 --> 0:31:46.120
<v Speaker 12>the big themes is we look out in the next

0:31:46.200 --> 0:31:48.400
<v Speaker 12>year and talk about with inequities in particular that have

0:31:48.440 --> 0:31:51.360
<v Speaker 12>done so well so the growthy side of equities, these

0:31:51.360 --> 0:31:54.600
<v Speaker 12>megacap tech names, you know, taking chips off the table there,

0:31:54.840 --> 0:31:57.560
<v Speaker 12>which would be the first order effects of AI and

0:31:57.600 --> 0:32:00.160
<v Speaker 12>the theme that we're talking about here with you know,

0:32:00.200 --> 0:32:02.520
<v Speaker 12>the this outsized performance that we've seen from the mag

0:32:02.640 --> 0:32:06.320
<v Speaker 12>seven and related names. Think about what's the next play,

0:32:06.400 --> 0:32:10.080
<v Speaker 12>what's the second order the third order effect here? Yeah,

0:32:10.320 --> 0:32:12.480
<v Speaker 12>I was just gonna say from that perspective. We think

0:32:12.520 --> 0:32:15.080
<v Speaker 12>it's the diffusion of AI through the economy into more

0:32:15.120 --> 0:32:18.080
<v Speaker 12>of these legacy kind of old economy type names. So

0:32:18.400 --> 0:32:21.120
<v Speaker 12>you know, that's something that we're positing to clients. Is okay,

0:32:21.360 --> 0:32:23.720
<v Speaker 12>we appreciate the fact that there's this sort of momentum

0:32:23.720 --> 0:32:25.800
<v Speaker 12>play in markets, and you're a little bit skittish about

0:32:25.880 --> 0:32:29.240
<v Speaker 12>levels here in valuations. Let's think about, you know, areas

0:32:29.240 --> 0:32:31.720
<v Speaker 12>where we can rotate into things that offer better value

0:32:32.200 --> 0:32:35.440
<v Speaker 12>right now in markets while maintaining some of your exposure.

0:32:35.520 --> 0:32:39.760
<v Speaker 6>In aggregate like healthcare or what yeah.

0:32:39.560 --> 0:32:43.560
<v Speaker 12>I think healthcare industrials, you know, sort of these manufacturing

0:32:43.840 --> 0:32:46.720
<v Speaker 12>segments of the economy. Again, just this these old line

0:32:47.440 --> 0:32:50.360
<v Speaker 12>areas of the economy, even business services, more traditional businesses

0:32:50.440 --> 0:32:52.000
<v Speaker 12>like that. And we look at it only from the

0:32:52.040 --> 0:32:54.280
<v Speaker 12>public market side of things, but the private market side

0:32:54.280 --> 0:32:55.840
<v Speaker 12>of things. So we spend a lot of time looking

0:32:55.880 --> 0:32:59.000
<v Speaker 12>at you know, private equity or certainly venture capital growth equity.

0:32:59.040 --> 0:33:00.680
<v Speaker 12>But if you think about private equity in the way

0:33:00.720 --> 0:33:04.240
<v Speaker 12>that they can touch these traditional businesses, small medium sized

0:33:04.280 --> 0:33:09.240
<v Speaker 12>businesses apply some AI in a thoughtful, novel way and

0:33:09.360 --> 0:33:11.720
<v Speaker 12>drive real productivity gains. And if you can find a

0:33:11.760 --> 0:33:14.480
<v Speaker 12>manager that can do that in a really systematic fashion

0:33:15.240 --> 0:33:16.800
<v Speaker 12>and has some sort of edge in terms of the

0:33:16.800 --> 0:33:19.120
<v Speaker 12>way that they're deploying that throughout their portfolio. We think

0:33:19.120 --> 0:33:21.600
<v Speaker 12>that's a really interesting compliment to what you're seeing on

0:33:21.640 --> 0:33:22.960
<v Speaker 12>the public market side as well.

0:33:23.080 --> 0:33:24.959
<v Speaker 1>Well, let's go back to public markets and just think

0:33:25.000 --> 0:33:28.120
<v Speaker 1>about geographies for a second. Where do you think this

0:33:28.240 --> 0:33:32.400
<v Speaker 1>happens in terms of AI spilling out into the non

0:33:32.520 --> 0:33:34.680
<v Speaker 1>AI companies over the next couple of years. Does it

0:33:34.720 --> 0:33:37.560
<v Speaker 1>happen in the US or do investors would investors be

0:33:38.200 --> 0:33:39.600
<v Speaker 1>good to look outside of the US?

0:33:40.760 --> 0:33:42.320
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, I think it happens globally.

0:33:42.520 --> 0:33:45.960
<v Speaker 12>And this weaves into another theme that we're seeing and

0:33:46.040 --> 0:33:49.600
<v Speaker 12>expecting to continue to play out, which is really deglobalization,

0:33:49.680 --> 0:33:52.800
<v Speaker 12>but reregionalization, I suppose, is the way we would frame

0:33:52.840 --> 0:33:56.200
<v Speaker 12>that in the sense that Europe gets more europe centric

0:33:56.240 --> 0:33:58.920
<v Speaker 12>in the way that it thinks about maybe even its

0:33:58.960 --> 0:34:01.520
<v Speaker 12>own AI technology, you know, and sort of the sovereignty

0:34:01.520 --> 0:34:05.200
<v Speaker 12>around its AI capabilities. But we think AI will be

0:34:05.240 --> 0:34:08.640
<v Speaker 12>a universal technology that gets deployed across the world in

0:34:08.680 --> 0:34:12.160
<v Speaker 12>different capacities, and then that really ties back into this

0:34:12.280 --> 0:34:14.480
<v Speaker 12>relative value theme as well. Right where you're looking at

0:34:14.560 --> 0:34:18.720
<v Speaker 12>markets xus that are trading at much more reasonable valuation

0:34:18.840 --> 0:34:21.400
<v Speaker 12>starting points, but continue to have a pretty good catalyst

0:34:21.480 --> 0:34:25.920
<v Speaker 12>in terms of you know, fiscal spending picking up defense spending,

0:34:25.960 --> 0:34:28.920
<v Speaker 12>certainly within Europe as a sort of poster child there.

0:34:28.920 --> 0:34:30.680
<v Speaker 8>You've got loose fiscal policy in Japan.

0:34:31.040 --> 0:34:33.120
<v Speaker 12>You've got China which looks set to continue to be

0:34:33.400 --> 0:34:37.360
<v Speaker 12>providing stimulus to its markets. So you've seen this positive

0:34:37.360 --> 0:34:39.840
<v Speaker 12>revision in earnings expectations if you look at the EFA,

0:34:39.880 --> 0:34:43.719
<v Speaker 12>if you look at emerging markets indices. We think that

0:34:43.880 --> 0:34:47.279
<v Speaker 12>then is kind of the relative value rotation theme for

0:34:47.400 --> 0:34:49.440
<v Speaker 12>us where you come out of you know, some of

0:34:49.440 --> 0:34:52.080
<v Speaker 12>these megacap tech names that have done so well, look

0:34:52.080 --> 0:34:54.160
<v Speaker 12>at other areas of the market that are poised to

0:34:54.840 --> 0:34:57.719
<v Speaker 12>sort of accelerate their earnings growth into twenty twenty six.

0:34:58.719 --> 0:35:01.839
<v Speaker 3>Biggest risk the new year just quickly just got about

0:35:01.880 --> 0:35:02.600
<v Speaker 3>thirty seconds.

0:35:03.360 --> 0:35:05.720
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, it's inflation to us.

0:35:05.760 --> 0:35:08.279
<v Speaker 12>If inflation stays stubbornly high, and we're already seeing you know,

0:35:08.280 --> 0:35:10.399
<v Speaker 12>the ten year today's taking back up towards four point

0:35:10.480 --> 0:35:14.520
<v Speaker 12>two percent. But if you see inflation expectations really rerating

0:35:14.560 --> 0:35:16.640
<v Speaker 12>to the upside, you see that ten year move back

0:35:16.680 --> 0:35:20.640
<v Speaker 12>towards five percent. We think that's that's the big concern.

0:35:20.719 --> 0:35:23.720
<v Speaker 12>Then all of the knock on effects that come alongside

0:35:24.080 --> 0:35:27.359
<v Speaker 12>sort of longer duration securities repricing as a function of

0:35:27.560 --> 0:35:31.000
<v Speaker 12>elevated inflation expectations. So that's what we're watching really really

0:35:31.000 --> 0:35:32.040
<v Speaker 12>closely in the next year.

0:35:32.560 --> 0:35:35.720
<v Speaker 1>Andrew cry thanks so much for joining us chief investment

0:35:35.719 --> 0:35:38.560
<v Speaker 1>officer at Crescent Grove Advisors. Hopefully next time we see

0:35:38.600 --> 0:35:40.200
<v Speaker 1>you back here in New York.

0:35:41.360 --> 0:35:46.719
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