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Speaker 1: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: It's Monday, the ninth of October in London. This is

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. I'm Stephen Carroll. Israel strikes

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Speaker 2: back at Gaza after Hamas attacks kill more than seven

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Speaker 2: hundred people. Hamas faces international condemnation as tensions in the

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Speaker 2: Middle East flare, plus fears of a proxy war, oil

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Speaker 2: surges as the risk of a wider conflict puts markets

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Speaker 2: on edge. Let's start with the roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: More than seven hundred Israelis, most of them civilians, have

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Speaker 2: been killed by Hamas in the weekend's attacks on southern Israel.

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Speaker 2: About four hundred Palestinians have also died in fighting and

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Speaker 2: retaliatory attacks. As the Israeli military has regained control over

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Speaker 2: most areas breached by militants. The operation by Hamas, which

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Speaker 2: included taking scores of Israeli hostages, was an unprecedented incursion

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Speaker 2: that has shaken real stability and markets there on. Ohayan

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Speaker 2: Shakti's relatives were among those taken.

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Speaker 3: I don't know how this can be resolved in a

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Speaker 3: way that will secure their lives and bring them back

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Speaker 3: to Israel alive in one piece.

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Speaker 4: I don't know how this can be done.

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Speaker 2: O'hayan Shakti says she doesn't know how she will be

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Speaker 2: reunited with her family. It's unclear how many hostages have

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Speaker 2: been taken, and Hamas says it was holding dozens of

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Speaker 2: commanders and soldiers. Reacting to the attacks, Israeli Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Benjamin Nettania, who said the country is now at war

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Speaker 2: with Hamas.

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Speaker 1: Hamas started a cruel and evil war. We will win

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Speaker 1: this war, but the price is too heavy to bear.

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Speaker 1: This is a very difficult day for all of us.

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Speaker 2: The timing and scale of the attack appears to have

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Speaker 2: caught Netanyahu's government by surprise. The country's officials have been

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Speaker 2: warning for months that Palestinian militant groups were preparing for violence,

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Speaker 2: but the attack still appears to represent one of the

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Speaker 2: biggest failures by Israeli intelligence in decades. Within hours of

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Speaker 2: Saturday's attacks, these ready defense forces launched Operation Swords of Iron,

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Speaker 2: cutting off power and carrying out airstrikes against targets in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: The Palestinian Health Ministry says hundreds of people, including children,

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Speaker 2: have been killed there. Reacting to the events, read Mansur,

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Speaker 2: the Palestinian observer at the United nations said this.

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Speaker 5: We chose the peaceful path to achieve our rights, but

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Speaker 5: Israel continued using bland force against Palestinian lives and Palestinian rights.

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Speaker 5: Israel cannot wage a full scale war on a nation,

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Speaker 5: its people, its land, its holy sites and expect peace

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Speaker 5: in exchange.

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Speaker 2: Despite read Mansur's comments, Israel says it won't stop until

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Speaker 2: Hamas's military infrastructure is dismantled. That's a task that seems

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Speaker 2: likely to take months and will likely include a ground invasion.

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Speaker 2: President Joe Biden has towed Prime Minister Netanyahu that additional

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Speaker 2: military assistance for Israel is now on the way, with

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Speaker 2: six US naval vessels now headed to the Eastern Mediterranean

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Speaker 2: to quote bolster regional deterrence. Meanwhile, the British Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Richi Sunak says the UK stands unequivocally with Israel following

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Speaker 2: the attacks. Now is not a time for equivocation and

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Speaker 2: I'm unequivocal. Har Mass and the people who support her

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Speaker 2: Mass are fully responsible for this appalling act of terror.

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Speaker 2: Ritchie Sunac's comments come as Saturday strike in Israel's subsequent

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Speaker 2: declaration of war threatened to unnerved markets. Oil has surged

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Speaker 2: by as much as five percent after the attacks, and

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Speaker 2: while the events don't pose an immediate threat to crude supplies,

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Speaker 2: there is a risk the conflict could spiral into a

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Speaker 2: more devastating proxy war involving the US and Iran. Turning

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Speaker 2: now to other news, the Labour leader kir Starmer says

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Speaker 2: the party must keep its composure over the prospect of power.

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Speaker 2: At the start of possibly the last conference before general

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Speaker 2: elect the Labour leader spoke at the party's women's conference.

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Speaker 4: A simple message that we take to the country that

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Speaker 4: labor will make a practical difference to the lives of

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Speaker 4: millions of women in this country.

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Speaker 2: Starmer's Labor Party is expected to use the conference to

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Speaker 2: outline plans for the NHS and for growing the economy.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg understands that the party is considering plans to borrow

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Speaker 2: to invest in British industry and Metro Bank has secured

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Speaker 2: a nine hundred and twenty five million pound financing package

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Speaker 2: deal which includes a forty percent haircut on some bondholders.

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Speaker 2: The agreement, Cy's Columbian financier Jimmy Glinski take a controlling

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Speaker 2: interest in the British retail and commercial bank Metro gains

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Speaker 2: some much needed breathing space after a tumultuous week that

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Speaker 2: saw its share price whipsaw. Of course, the story that

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Speaker 2: is dominating our programming today are the events of the

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Speaker 2: weekend in Israel. More than one thy one hundred people

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Speaker 2: are dead in Israel and Gaza after the weekend's Hamas

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Speaker 2: attacks and the retalitory airst strikes on the Palestinian territory.

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Speaker 2: It's the worst attack on Israel in fifty years, with

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Speaker 2: potentially wide reaching consequences. For the latest were joined Byer

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Speaker 2: Israel BUA chief Ethan Bronner and Tel Aviv and a

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Speaker 2: studio with me in London as our EMA andis reactor

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Speaker 2: Razin Mathison. Good morning to you both, Ethan, and I'd

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Speaker 2: like to start with you. What is the latest that

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Speaker 2: you can tell us this morning about what Israeli forces

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Speaker 2: have been able to do in terms of regaining control

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Speaker 2: of areas where fighting was ongoing over the weekend.

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Speaker 6: Yes, I can seven. So the situation remains relatively dire

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Speaker 6: in Israel. The Israeli say that Hamas fighters are continuing

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Speaker 6: to sneak in in small numbers to Israel and remain

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Speaker 6: at large in Israel. In the south, mostly but possibly beyond.

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Speaker 6: There are still families being held hostage by Hamas fighters

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Speaker 6: in the south of Israel.

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Speaker 1: There are at.

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Speaker 6: Least one hundred Israeli hostages being held in Gaza, so

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Speaker 6: from an Israeli perspective, the situation is not yet under control.

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Speaker 1: Forty eight hours after the assault.

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Speaker 6: They are of course striking by air in Gaza and

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Speaker 6: say that they are going after a bunch of launching

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Speaker 6: sites and military infrastructure held by Hamas. But they were

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Speaker 6: clearly caught in terrible surprise, and this is taking a

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Speaker 6: lot longer and a lot more painful than they ever expected.

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Speaker 2: What have we heard from Prime Minister Benjamin Saint Natania

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Speaker 2: who and the government about what they expect to do

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Speaker 2: from here?

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Speaker 6: The Prime Minister has actually not held especially high presence lately.

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Speaker 6: I'm sure it's a very difficult time for him. I

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Speaker 6: would say that the military officials and those who have

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Speaker 6: been in and out of government are talking about a

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Speaker 6: month's long campaign which will involve a ground force.

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Speaker 1: Very likely.

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Speaker 6: No one is asserting it as a fact, but it's

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Speaker 6: increasingly viewed as likely, and that this is going to

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Speaker 6: take a long time, but that they say they are

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Speaker 6: determined to never allow Hamas to have the capacity to

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Speaker 6: carry out such an attack.

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Speaker 1: Again, Ethan stay with us.

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Speaker 2: I'd like to turn to Razin mathscenari Emians reactor, who's

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Speaker 2: in studio with us. There was a meeting also of

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Speaker 2: the UN Security Council last night.

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Speaker 1: Ros.

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Speaker 2: What do we know about what happened there?

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Speaker 7: Well, there wasn't meeting. It was a closed door meeting

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Speaker 7: and obviously an effort by some members, including the US,

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Speaker 7: to get a unified statement condemning Hamas for this attack

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Speaker 7: on Israel. We didn't see that statement eventually in a

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Speaker 7: way that's no surprise, of course, when you look at

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Speaker 7: the makeup of the UN Security Council, you've got Russia

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Speaker 7: and China there. Russia has supported around obviously in the

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Speaker 7: Middle East, which it turned backs Hamas, and China tends

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Speaker 7: to walk a line on this. You can see in

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Speaker 7: the statements they've issued so far since his attack, not

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Speaker 7: overtly criticizing Hamas by name, not overtly calling out the

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Speaker 7: Palestinians for this, just urging a ceasefire, and no great

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Speaker 7: desire to be part of a statement that's condemning Hamas.

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Speaker 7: Of course, A bit broader questions over the utility of

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Speaker 7: the UN Security Council in recent years, including its response

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Speaker 7: to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So you're not really going

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Speaker 7: to see strong leadership necessarily coming from the UN in

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Speaker 7: this moment. The real thing to watch, obviously is the

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Speaker 7: key ally of Israel, which is the US.

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Speaker 2: So far, the US has sent six vessels, including an

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Speaker 2: aircraft carrier to the Eastern Mediterranean. How should we assess

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Speaker 2: the US response so far to these events.

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Speaker 7: Well, certainly a high level of concern about what's going on,

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Speaker 7: strong statements of support for Israel, saying they'll support Israel

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Speaker 7: and in a number of ways, including potentially militarily, talk

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Speaker 7: of more aid packages coming in. And the US has

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Speaker 7: had a roll over the years in sort of the

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Speaker 7: development and the production of the Iron Dome missile system,

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Speaker 7: which has proved quite effective. Yet again in the recent events,

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Speaker 7: the question is what does the presence of the US

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Speaker 7: Navy close by do. It just sends a signal for

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Speaker 7: a start, the US is in the air in the

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Speaker 7: idea that people need to probably keep a lid on

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Speaker 7: contagion effect from what's happened. Again, the concern that this

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Speaker 7: sprawls out into other areas of the Middle East. So

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Speaker 7: that's an important thing. Just again, the US could be

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Speaker 7: needing to potentially West Caast now evacuate its own citizens

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Speaker 7: from the area.

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Speaker 2: Ethan to you, and a word on the military response

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Speaker 2: we've had from Israel so far. Can you describe to

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Speaker 2: us what has happened in terms of military operations since Saturday?

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Speaker 6: Sure, And one last thing I would I would, I

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Speaker 6: think with Ross said, is very important and just to

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Speaker 6: point out that the presence of that US system here

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Speaker 6: is really aimed at Isbelah at Lebanon, as she implied.

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Speaker 1: It is not aimed at Hamas in the South.

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Speaker 6: It has aimed at the fear that there could be

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Speaker 6: a kind of a multi front war and to send

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Speaker 6: a signal in terms of what Israel has done. It

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Speaker 6: had something like twenty nine spots along the border fence

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Speaker 6: that were breached on Saturday morning. They have repaired them

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Speaker 6: and say largely secured them. Have mostly they've arrested and

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Speaker 6: killed a whole bunch of Hamas fighters in the South,

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Speaker 6: and they have now been hitting from the air hundreds

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Speaker 6: of targets, especially launcher sites, to reduce the number of

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Speaker 6: rockets and missiles that Hamas can send to Israel, but

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Speaker 6: they are finding it much more difficult than expected. They

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Speaker 6: have called up four divisions, there's a whole bunch of

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Speaker 6: reservists going down. There are already complaints of a slight

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Speaker 6: lack of equipment. It's fairly chaotic, it.

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Speaker 1: Must be said. This is not a well ordered situation.

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Speaker 1: From Israel's perspective.

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Speaker 2: There's been much discussion about the intelligence failures that led

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Speaker 2: to this attack happening as a surprise on Israel. What

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Speaker 2: is being said about that there Now.

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Speaker 6: This is seen as perhaps the worst intelligence failure, certainly

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Speaker 6: since the nineteen seventy three war.

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Speaker 1: And again it's a sort of double nature.

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Speaker 6: One is an operational one, they didn't have enough troops

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Speaker 6: down along the fence, but it was largely a conceptual one.

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Speaker 1: And here I think this will take a long time

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Speaker 1: to understand. Well.

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Speaker 6: For the last few years, and especially six or ten months,

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Speaker 6: Hamas has given the distinct impression to Israel that it

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Speaker 6: was not in a fighting mode, that it was looking

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Speaker 6: to negotiate and talk its way to a future. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 6: it seems planning all along a massive invasion. They fooled

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Speaker 6: the Israelis, and the Israelis feel utterly humiliated about it.

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Speaker 3: Ros.

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Speaker 2: What do the events of the past few days mean

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Speaker 2: for the efforts to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and

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Speaker 2: Israel and other Gulf countries.

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Speaker 7: Well, as Ethan was saying, I mean, Israel is going

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Speaker 7: to be very focused for quite some time, possibly months,

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Speaker 7: simply on its efforts to contain Hamas militarily now. And

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Speaker 7: that's really going to be front of mine. With the

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Speaker 7: level of casualties that we've seen, has to be number one.

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Speaker 7: So does that just take normalization off the table? At

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Speaker 7: the very least, it puts it very much on the

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Speaker 7: back burner. There's going to be no appetite to have

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Speaker 7: those conversations continuing. They're very, very delicate conversations to be

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Speaker 7: happening at all, let alone in the environment that we're

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Speaker 7: in at the moment, and certainly that may have been

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Speaker 7: some of the intent from Hamas in carrying out this attack,

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Speaker 7: was to derail that process. Certainly, it's got to be

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Speaker 7: very much on the back burner for now.

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Speaker 2: Whereas the Wall Street journals also reporting this morning that

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Speaker 2: Iran helped Hamas to plan these attacks, what's been the

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Speaker 2: official response to those reports.

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Speaker 7: Well, obviously it's a pretty natural line to draw, given

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Speaker 7: the historical support that Iran has given to Hamas and

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Speaker 7: obviously also by Hesballah, which Ethan was talking about a

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Speaker 7: minute ago. Are you seeing US caution officially on that.

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Speaker 7: They're saying, there's no there's nothing that they see that

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Speaker 7: tangibly ties Iran to this, But of course you see

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Speaker 7: a long history of support militarily, strategically, financially Hamas. And

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Speaker 7: whether or not they knew about this attack, they were

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Speaker 7: guiding this attack and helping them planet is another question,

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Speaker 7: but certainly there's a strong level of historic support there.

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Speaker 7: The US is saying officially right now, they don't see

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Speaker 7: anything that directly links around to this particular attack.

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Speaker 1: Ethan, What does.

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Speaker 2: All of this mean for the political situation in Israel now?

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Speaker 2: The President calling for national unity, There's been some talk

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Speaker 2: from some of the opposition party leaders as well.

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Speaker 6: Yes, I think it's important to just recall for our

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Speaker 6: listeners that what happened on Saturday morning was a fairly

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Speaker 6: brutal civilian massacre. Hundreds and hundreds of people were slaughtered.

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Speaker 6: This was not really a military incursion. These were kids

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Speaker 6: that a concert, These were people in their homes. This

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Speaker 6: has unified this country in an instant, and the protest

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Speaker 6: movement for example, that was protesting against Prime minister in

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Speaker 6: Titania who in the streets for nine months, has now

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Speaker 6: turned into a support system for the troops and the

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Speaker 6: people in the south, raising money for them. As you said,

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Speaker 6: opposition has talked about joining a national unity government. The president,

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Speaker 6: as you said, mentioned, and I think that there's a

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Speaker 6: likelihood of that happening. This is I don't think that

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Speaker 6: long term prime minister in d'artagna who can survive this

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Speaker 6: failure of intelligence. But for now people are gathering around

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Speaker 6: and really in a rather unified way, which has eluded

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Speaker 6: this country for this past year or two.

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Speaker 2: Rather I final word to you about wire else we

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Speaker 2: should be watching in the region for the wider implications

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Speaker 2: of the events we've seen in Israel.

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Speaker 7: Well, obviously, again the concern is that this does spread

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Speaker 7: and perhaps if there's a long running ground war in

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Speaker 7: the area, that does draw in other plays, including around

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Speaker 7: although so far it's been fairly contained. You saw some

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Speaker 7: rockets fired by Hesbealah, you saw some rockets fired at Hesbelah,

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Speaker 7: but that's really been sort of a gesture if anything else,

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Speaker 7: and there doesn't seem to be an appetite really to

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Speaker 7: see this spread beyond where it is now in the

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Speaker 7: terrible events itself within Israel, but certainly that bears watching,

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Speaker 7: and not just for security in the region, but for beyond,

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Speaker 7: because of course this is an oil producing region. If

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Speaker 7: all supply gets affected, that's very significant for the global

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Speaker 7: economy as well, especially given the past year and a

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Speaker 7: half of Russia's invasion again of Ukraine. So those are

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Speaker 7: sort of broader threads worth watching, but for now obviously

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Speaker 7: a strong desire to not see this spread.

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Speaker 2: Our Amia News director Roslind Matheson and from Tel Aviv,

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Speaker 2: Israel Bureau Chief Ethan Broner, thank you both very much.

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Speaker 2: Now we are continuing to monitor events in Israel, but

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Speaker 2: turning to some political news here in the UK. The

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Speaker 2: Labor Party holding its annual conference in Liverpool, freshenal success

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Speaker 2: of the by election victory in Scotland, but the events

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Speaker 2: of the weekend threatening to overshadow the party conference. Cayline

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Speaker 2: Hepgur is live in Liverpool for us this morning. Good

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Speaker 2: morning to you, Caroline. What has been said first of

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Speaker 2: all on this made her international story at the Labor Party.

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Speaker 3: Conference, so the Labor leader Kirs Starmer has made a

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Speaker 3: complete break from three years ago if you recalled Jeremy

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Speaker 3: Kudabin presiding over a Labor party accused of deep anti

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Speaker 3: Semitism that saw protests in Parliament Square and prominent Jewish

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Speaker 3: MPs resigning. Labour has released a statement and also spoken

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Speaker 3: about this with the Shadow Health Secretary Shadow farn Sexualary

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Speaker 3: talking about this, Labour stands firmly in support of Israel's

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Speaker 3: right to defend itself and talking about the indiscriminate attacks

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Speaker 3: from Hamas. I mean, Corbyn has been expelled from the party,

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Speaker 3: but he still would not condemn her mass over the weekend.

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Speaker 3: In particular, he talked only about any and all the

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Speaker 3: tax in general. So I think it was also very

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Speaker 3: significant that Luciana Berger, one of those MPs who resigned,

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Speaker 3: returned to conference last night saying that Kirs Starmer has

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Speaker 3: shown the leadership and done everything necessary to turn our

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Speaker 3: party around. So this is significant. The Board of Deputies

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Speaker 3: of British Jews and other Jewish leadership groups in the

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Speaker 3: UK have thanked both the Prime Minister but also kiss

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Speaker 3: Starmer for their support. So I think that on this

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Speaker 3: issue Kis Starmer is trying to clearly put a significant

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Speaker 3: divide between the former leadership of the party and the

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Speaker 3: way that he wants to steer the Labor Party in

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Speaker 3: the UK. Because, as you say, this is potentially the

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Speaker 3: last party conference ahead of the next general election in

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Speaker 3: the UK, Labor is twenty points ahead in the polls.

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Speaker 3: The mood here, I must say in Liverpool already, frankly

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Speaker 3: is excited, nervous, yes, scared to put a foot wrong.

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Speaker 3: But the party you know, has potentially real shot at power.

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Speaker 3: They've been out of power since twenty ten. Can Kiss Starmer,

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Speaker 3: the former prosecutor turn politician, win the next general election

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Speaker 3: in the UK? You mentioned that he won that by election.

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Speaker 3: His party won the by election in Scotland. So I

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Speaker 3: put a few of these questions to Steve Rotherham Lays

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Speaker 3: Liverpool metro Mayre about what Starmer has to do at conference,

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Speaker 3: what he needs to do to convince voters and businesses

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Speaker 3: and others to vote for him.

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Speaker 4: I think what you're going to see over in the

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Speaker 4: next few days is a government in waiting, and you

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Speaker 4: know the shambles of the Tory Party conference in Manchester

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Speaker 4: will be in star contrast to policy decisions and really

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Speaker 4: innovative ideas about what we need to do to take

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Speaker 4: our country forward, and that's really what I'm looking forward

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Speaker 4: to over the next few days.

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Speaker 3: Does Labour need to deliver a lot more policy detail now?

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Speaker 3: I mean that has been also a concern that actually

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Speaker 3: Kirs Starmer has said very little and there's a big

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Speaker 3: question mark about whether there'll be more detailed policy at conference,

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Speaker 3: or whether that will come in the manifesto, whether it

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Speaker 3: won't come at all, that Labor is sort of relying

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Speaker 3: on the Tories to lose rather than proposing policy. Does

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Speaker 3: Labor need to deliver more policy now.

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Speaker 4: Well, you're not going to see the manifest so launched

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Speaker 4: in Liverpool at party conference because we don't know when

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Speaker 4: a general election is going to be called and if

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Speaker 4: the Tories, if mister Schuenach wants to call that general election,

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Speaker 4: then I'm absolutely certain that you'll see all of the

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Speaker 4: detail of policy come to tuition at this moment in time.

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Speaker 4: Of course, we don't know when that will be, but

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Speaker 4: we think it will be within the next twelve months

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Speaker 4: or so, and so we're gearing up for that and

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Speaker 4: you know, we have an army of volunteers ready to

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Speaker 4: take that message out onto the doorstep and to fight

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Speaker 4: in every constituency so that we get a majority Labor

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Speaker 4: government and then we'll really see the difference that the

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Speaker 4: Labor Party can make to this country rather than this

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Speaker 4: failed toy alternative.

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Speaker 3: We've got the highest taxation levels that we've seen since

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Speaker 3: the Second World War. It's hard to tax the UK

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Speaker 3: more in order to create a fairer society if that

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Speaker 3: is the route.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and Rachel Reeves has said, you know that we're

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Speaker 4: going to be fiscally prudent and that's the right thing

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Speaker 4: to do. We will find ways, of course of ensuring

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Speaker 4: that it's not just the quantum of funding that is

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Speaker 4: available and hopefully that does grow, but also the distribution

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Speaker 4: is fairly and that's what happened so far in this country.

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Speaker 4: That's embedded the inequalities that the distribution formula based on

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Speaker 4: the Green Book methodology from the Treasury has meant that

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Speaker 4: the Tories could give you know, their shire counties more money.

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Speaker 4: You know, missus Schunach is famous for actually standing up

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Speaker 4: and making a speech saying that that he's wrestled funding

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Speaker 4: from the areas that needed most and give it to

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Speaker 4: Tory areas well. We need to reverse that and we

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Speaker 4: need to ensure that those places that have been left

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Speaker 4: behind for generations are now the priority for an income

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Speaker 4: and labor government.

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Speaker 3: Does in Liverpool think that labor is the party of business?

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Speaker 4: Well, you can ask them, but certainly the businesses that

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Speaker 4: I speak to overwhelmingly a support of what I've done

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Speaker 4: in the Liverpool City of Egypt. And if what I've

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Speaker 4: done is a microcosm of what can happen on a

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Speaker 4: national scale, then yes, businesses are massively supportive.

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Speaker 8: I tell you what they're not supportive of.

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Speaker 4: They're not supportive of the Tory government that cancels HS two,

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Speaker 4: that causes absolute confusion and chaos, that has the country

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Speaker 4: and the shambles that has a former prime minister and

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Speaker 4: list trust that has cost every single.

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Speaker 8: Household thousands of pounds. They're not supportive of that.

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Speaker 4: But they are supportive of the things that I've been

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Speaker 4: able to do with limited powers. But just imagine having

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Speaker 4: a labor metro mayor labor councils and then a labor

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Speaker 4: government working in tandem.

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Speaker 8: That's the real prize that we're talking about.

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Speaker 3: The Prime Minister is she sud that clearly thinks that

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Speaker 3: he is the selling point perhaps rather than his Conservative

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Speaker 3: party that's seems to be the impetus. Does that target

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Speaker 3: a labor weakness? I that it is the Labor Party

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Speaker 3: that seems to be more popular than kiss Starman, that

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Speaker 3: Starmer lacks personal appeal. Are you worried about that?

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Speaker 8: Well, Richie Schunach is their benefit.

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Speaker 4: If he's their their poster boy for Toryism, then I

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Speaker 4: think we're going to do all right, aren't we?

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Speaker 8: Because we saw what he was like.

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Speaker 4: He can't make a decision, he can't answer a question,

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Speaker 4: He flips from one thing to another. I just think

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Speaker 4: that what you're going to find over the next few

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Speaker 4: days is not just a leader of the Labor Party

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Speaker 4: who provides that vision, but a united party. And that's

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Speaker 4: the most important thing. The public and the electorate like

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Speaker 4: to see teams. They like to see people working together.

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Speaker 4: It's not about personality politics with that we had with

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Speaker 4: Boris Johnson for instance.

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Speaker 8: And it's not about mad ideas that we're seeing we

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Speaker 8: Liz forrus.

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Speaker 4: This is about somebody who will have a team and

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Speaker 4: we will steady the ship and we will provide a

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Speaker 4: vision to build on.

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Speaker 8: So this country fulfills its full potential.

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00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,359
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