WEBVTT - Gary Gensler Talks AI Hype, IPO Outlook

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Well not commence a three hour interview. Gary Gensler joins

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<v Speaker 2>us now. He's a former chairman of the Securities Exchange Commission,

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<v Speaker 2>a modest tenure of duty at Golben Sachs as well

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<v Speaker 2>and critically long ago and far away writing legislation Sarbaines

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<v Speaker 2>Oxley is well, well, well over twenty years ago. Gary,

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<v Speaker 2>I've been dying to talk to you. I read all

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<v Speaker 2>the wonderful comments on this life of Alan Greenspan, and

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<v Speaker 2>I get the criticism about interest rate dynamics in two

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<v Speaker 2>thousand and five, two thousand and six and that. But

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<v Speaker 2>I'm going to go to a guy that you have

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<v Speaker 2>a nodding acquaintance with, one S. Johnson up at MIT.

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<v Speaker 2>I've quoted this many times, folks, Simon Johnson and his

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<v Speaker 2>magisterial thirteen Bankers the SEC not Unstler's sec Final Rule

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<v Speaker 2>Alternative net capital requirements for broker dealers that are part

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<v Speaker 2>of consolidated supervised entities. August twenty, two thousand and four.

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<v Speaker 2>Gary Gensler. We can criticize Chairman Greenspan, but he had

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of help in screwing us up into the

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<v Speaker 2>financial crisis, didn't he.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, there was a broad miss I don't know how

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<v Speaker 3>else to say it. Policymakers across the spectrum, and the

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<v Speaker 3>American public paid the price, and we exported by the

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<v Speaker 3>way that crisis around the globe. But in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>Allan himself, I worked with them closely in the late

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<v Speaker 3>nineteen nineties, actually met Allan in the nineteen eighties at

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<v Speaker 3>a wonderful dinner at Larry and Billy Tish's house in

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<v Speaker 3>the mid nineteen eighties. And Alan was a dedicated economist,

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<v Speaker 3>a dedicated public servant. And look, Tom, none of us

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<v Speaker 3>get everything right. And yes, in those key years going

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<v Speaker 3>into that OA crisis, there was too much leverage being

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<v Speaker 3>built up in the housing market, too much leverage being

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<v Speaker 3>built up in the financial markets.

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<v Speaker 2>One final question in Sherman green Span, just as Paul

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<v Speaker 2>and I feel the news flow right now, Gary Gunsler

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<v Speaker 2>is just so important. He was, in my estimate, a

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<v Speaker 2>market economist. I love what Greg Hips said, more accountant

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<v Speaker 2>than theorists. Do we need more central bankers steeped in

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<v Speaker 2>trucking data in Nebraska? I mean, do we need a

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<v Speaker 2>more of a tinge of Alan Greenspan in our future?

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<v Speaker 2>Economist types.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, i'll tell you the other thing about Alan, having

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<v Speaker 3>worked closely with him for three or four years, maybe

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<v Speaker 3>not as closely as others. He also was really steeped

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<v Speaker 3>in the financial market. So there's all sorts of different

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<v Speaker 3>types of economists.

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<v Speaker 1>And we've had leader of the Federal Reserve that were lawyers.

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<v Speaker 3>We've had leaders of the Federal Reserve that have come

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<v Speaker 3>from all sorts of places. William Mtchesney Martin famously from

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<v Speaker 3>the nineteen fifties and sixties had run the New York

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<v Speaker 3>Stock Exchange. Alan understood markets. He is a young guy.

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<v Speaker 3>He used to trade futures in the old Chicago merket

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<v Speaker 3>TIL type of futures markets. And I remember conversations with

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<v Speaker 3>Alan about futures in the nineteen nineties, and then when

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<v Speaker 3>I took the role at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission,

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<v Speaker 3>Alan and I would sometimes get on the phone and

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<v Speaker 3>he said, well, this is how futures markets really work,

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<v Speaker 3>and this is how energy markets. And he'd beg into

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<v Speaker 3>the backwardization of the markets. That was remarkable about Alan.

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<v Speaker 3>I think he had a sense of financial markets. He

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<v Speaker 3>had too much of a trust, though in them, to

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<v Speaker 3>right themselves when they were in balances, and there were

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<v Speaker 3>big imbalances. He navigated during the Internet enthusiasm, but he

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<v Speaker 3>didn't quite navigate that on the housing markets.

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<v Speaker 2>Paul Sweeney, you get lucky. You have Gary Genslron and

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<v Speaker 2>moments ago across the Bloomberg is a five trunch SpaceX

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<v Speaker 2>benchmark dead offering right, perfect timing.

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<v Speaker 1>Gary.

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<v Speaker 4>We're at a time here in the markets here where

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<v Speaker 4>we're getting just these mega IPOs SpaceX, you know, they

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<v Speaker 4>win public and we've got anthropic and open AI. That's

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<v Speaker 4>send a signal to you and to others about where

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<v Speaker 4>we are in this market cycle.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think so you used the word signal, I

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<v Speaker 3>use the word Tell Simon Johnson, who you mentioned earlier.

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<v Speaker 3>He and I do this podcast and we just put

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<v Speaker 3>one out on the mega IPOs just this morning on

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<v Speaker 3>power and Consequences. And I think the overall equity markets,

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<v Speaker 3>like Alan green Spence nineteen nineties, equity markets is funding

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<v Speaker 3>this big burst of infrastructure built in AI seven hundred

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<v Speaker 3>and fifty billion dollars this year, up threefold in just

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<v Speaker 3>two years. And to scale that, that's a about two

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<v Speaker 3>and a half percent of our gross domestic product and

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<v Speaker 3>so then you have like space Echo Public and maybe

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<v Speaker 3>anthropic and open AI.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll see.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's somewhat of a tell Google raising eighty

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<v Speaker 3>five billion and the markets have to digest this, and

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<v Speaker 3>then there's valuation questions, you know, at one hundred, one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred and forty times revenues without earnings. So this will

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<v Speaker 3>all sort out, but it also might be six months

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<v Speaker 3>from now we look back, it was fine, but there's

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<v Speaker 3>an equal and better chance that six months from now

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<v Speaker 3>we look back, we say, as all those venture capitalists

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<v Speaker 3>and sovereign wealth funds starts selling those shares, that you

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<v Speaker 3>see a downward pressure on the not just SpaceX, but

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<v Speaker 3>the whole market.

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<v Speaker 4>You're up there at MIT, Gary, and as I understand,

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<v Speaker 4>there's some pretty good engineers and computer geeks up there

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<v Speaker 4>as well. What is kind of your understanding? What's the

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<v Speaker 4>understanding up there at MIT just about AI today? Because

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<v Speaker 4>initially we in the marketplace, we just said, let's just

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<v Speaker 4>buy the chips, but there's more to it than that.

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<v Speaker 4>Market seems to be trying to discern some winners and losers.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you guys think about that?

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<v Speaker 3>Look, there's thousands of remarkable research scientists and faculty here,

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<v Speaker 3>so I can speak for just maybe myself, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think AI is the most transformative technology of our times.

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<v Speaker 1>But we've had this before.

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<v Speaker 3>If you go back over the last two hundred years

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<v Speaker 3>from canals to the Internet to this and what happens

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<v Speaker 3>and Ray Dalio talks about this too. We get an

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<v Speaker 3>over enthusiastic financial market support and then at some point

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<v Speaker 3>we build so much infrastructure we have a reckoning. And

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<v Speaker 3>I think that's what you learn from history is that

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<v Speaker 3>we tend to have reckonings. Now, is it a calamitous

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<v Speaker 3>reckoning like with railroads in the eighteen seventies where we

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<v Speaker 3>had disastrous recessions.

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<v Speaker 1>Is there reckon like after the nineteen.

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<v Speaker 3>Twenties we had a big boom on electrification mostly in utilities.

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<v Speaker 3>Or is it like the Internet where you have a

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<v Speaker 3>modest reckoning, still a recession. And that's so AI is transformative.

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<v Speaker 1>One last thing, Paul.

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<v Speaker 3>I think of it a little bit like a parlay bat,

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<v Speaker 3>you know those the prediction markets. You have to have

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<v Speaker 3>two things. You have to have AI hyper scalers and

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<v Speaker 3>open AI be able to build the revenues. Right now

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<v Speaker 3>they don't have the revenues. And two you need to

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<v Speaker 3>build productivity in the economy enough for the capital markets

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<v Speaker 3>to overlook all the disruption, all the companies that are

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<v Speaker 3>going to be disrupting value with a successful AI.

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<v Speaker 2>We continue with Gary against the former chairman of the

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<v Speaker 2>Securities Exchange Commission as commitment to Sloan, where he's won

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<v Speaker 2>a couple like student trophies.

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<v Speaker 4>Is that right?

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<v Speaker 2>I didn't fall asleep in his class trophy? Does it wonderful?

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<v Speaker 1>Tom? You're too kind?

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<v Speaker 2>He does a wonderful podcast Assignon Johnson. I want to

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<v Speaker 2>go two questions here, Gary. Quickly, a lot of people

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<v Speaker 2>went retail on bitcoin and they enjoyed buying it one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred or one hundred and ten. What do you say

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<v Speaker 2>to the retail crew that have losses in bitcoin?

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<v Speaker 3>Look, markets both trade on sentiment and fundamentals, and the

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<v Speaker 3>challenge for those purchasers who are is what are the

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<v Speaker 3>fundamentals we were just talking about that is with SpaceX.

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<v Speaker 3>But there's a real business there. I mean, Elon Musk

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<v Speaker 3>is built a real business. It's just a question of

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<v Speaker 3>where do you value it?

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<v Speaker 1>Here? The EBB and flow of any.

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<v Speaker 3>Purchaser of bitcoin has to think, all right, what are

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<v Speaker 3>the real use cases and particularly to be even more

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<v Speaker 3>careful with the rest of that asset class crypto. It's

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<v Speaker 3>like meme stocks. You have to be very careful that

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<v Speaker 3>you're not trading just on sentiment.

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<v Speaker 2>I'll refrain from editorial lensing here for Tom Kean, I've

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<v Speaker 2>got a chart from Jeff Jake. Thank you zero Hedge

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<v Speaker 2>for this. Gary Gensler to me, it's manipulated. They do

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<v Speaker 2>an IPO which is five percent of the SpaceX float.

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<v Speaker 2>They trunch it out August eleven, twenty one, September ten,

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<v Speaker 2>September twenty five, they get fifty percent of the stock

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<v Speaker 2>out October ten. They finally get out to sixty percent

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<v Speaker 2>of the stock out December ninth. Is it just a

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<v Speaker 2>manipulation of folding the the stock into the public in

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<v Speaker 2>a way that keeps the fervor up. It doesn't seem

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<v Speaker 2>like the old days where a company went public.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, so here's the other thing. Nasdaq made an accommodation

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<v Speaker 3>in how they do their index, the NASTAK one hundred

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<v Speaker 3>and Once there's thirty percent of that stock outstanding, which

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<v Speaker 3>might happen as soon as mid August after the earnings release.

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<v Speaker 3>Once that happens, the entire free float is counted into

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<v Speaker 3>the indexes, which put out Elon's for fifty eight percent

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<v Speaker 3>might fold into the indexes and then there's a buy.

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<v Speaker 1>But here's the other side.

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<v Speaker 3>I caught the great rebalancing all those venture capitalists and

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<v Speaker 3>sovereign wealth funds. They're going to want to take risk

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<v Speaker 3>off the page. I mean, Tom, They're not going to

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<v Speaker 3>want to just leave their profits in and say let's

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<v Speaker 3>let's go for more. They got to take you know,

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<v Speaker 3>a third half, maybe three quarters of the risk off

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<v Speaker 3>the page. And so there's going to be a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of selling pressure too as these lockups come off.

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<v Speaker 4>Gary, as we think about the continued rollout of AI

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<v Speaker 4>across the economy, what do you think the regulatory framework

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<v Speaker 4>should be?

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<v Speaker 1>Dung forward? Look.

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<v Speaker 3>I think with any great technology, a society adapts and says, listen,

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<v Speaker 3>there's public goods and we have to promote them.

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<v Speaker 1>We call it responsible AI.

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<v Speaker 3>I started doing work on this seven years ago and

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<v Speaker 3>tried to move the ball on that even at the

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<v Speaker 3>Securities and Exchange Commission. I think the most it's happening

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<v Speaker 3>is at the States about protecting people against bias, protecting

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<v Speaker 3>people's privacy.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, the accuracy of it.

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<v Speaker 3>But when the algorithms are making decisions on our behalf,

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<v Speaker 3>who gets healthcare, who gets a job, who gets credit,

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<v Speaker 3>it's important that they are accurate. And I think that

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<v Speaker 3>right now this current president is more into let's just

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<v Speaker 3>support a competition with China. Let's you know, as they say,

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<v Speaker 3>just take off the regulatory guard rails. And yet I

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<v Speaker 3>think society is reacting and starting to say, what about

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<v Speaker 3>my kids, what about addiction, what about the use of this,

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<v Speaker 3>what about my lost job potential?

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe?

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<v Speaker 3>And so it will be a very interesting next several

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<v Speaker 3>years in terms of the politics of all this.

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<v Speaker 2>Paul, what's it like working with Simon Johnson? I've known

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<v Speaker 2>him for years, We're quite close, et cetera. But I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not in the trenches where gunstlers to walk in the

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<v Speaker 2>room with the Nobel Lauriate. What's it like working he's Johnson?

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<v Speaker 3>It's fabulous. He's a very gracious colleague. He's got a

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<v Speaker 3>fertile mind, I mean his mind just I mean, how

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<v Speaker 3>did he come up with those ideas in the nineteen nineties,

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<v Speaker 3>working with Drona s and Oaklow and Jim Robinson. It

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<v Speaker 3>led to that Nobel prize. But it's a remarkable collaboration.

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<v Speaker 3>Sometimes sometimes we in the classroom have to make room

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<v Speaker 3>for each each of us. And he's he's a remarkable

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<v Speaker 3>chalkboard teacher as well. This is a secret of his,

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<v Speaker 3>but he loves being at the chalkboard and summarizing things

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<v Speaker 3>and then bringing students into that conversation.

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<v Speaker 2>Here at MIT, Stanley Fisher has a great story Gary

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<v Speaker 2>of Samuelson was so angry at his incompetence that he

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<v Speaker 2>ripped the chalk out of Stanley Fisher's heads threw it

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<v Speaker 2>across the room. Some of that some of the intensity

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<v Speaker 2>at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Their next podcast will

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<v Speaker 2>be how to Fix the Red Sox. Gary Gensler is

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<v Speaker 2>the former chairman of the SEC and we greatly appreciate

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<v Speaker 2>remembrance for the life of Ellen Greenspan.