Speaker 1: Check it on Man.
Speaker 2: It is Wednesday morning, January eighth, twenty twenty five. Just
Speaker 2: got finished doing the megapod. We are pre draw for
Speaker 2: the first tennis slam of the year, the Australian Open.
Speaker 2: That is the difference between golf and tennis. Tennis. Right
Speaker 2: out of the gates, we're like, let's do a slam
Speaker 2: after like three weeks in Brisbane and Adelaide and now
Speaker 2: they're going to Melbourne for the Australian Australian Open. Gil
Speaker 2: Alexander and as always on our tennis podcast, but he's
Speaker 2: very busy, so we can only do the pre draw
Speaker 2: part with Drew Drew Denzick Underscore Whale, underscore capper who
Speaker 2: joins us now co host of not only The Deep
Speaker 2: Dive with Andy Molitor but also NBC Sports at the Edge.
Speaker 2: Speaking of Australians with Jay Croucher. Drew, how you doing, man,
Speaker 2: Hope you're well in Long Beach unscathed by the fires.
Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, it's the apocalyptic scene here in the south Land,
Speaker 3: but I think they're starting to get things under control
Speaker 3: up in l a and the smoke in the wind
Speaker 3: and Long Beach was never really a factor, so we
Speaker 3: got very very lucky. But there's a lot of people
Speaker 3: out there that are hurting and feel for them. I
Speaker 3: got friends got evacuated in Brightwood and Santa Monica. Yeah,
Speaker 3: it was it was not a great scene. My wife's family,
Speaker 3: you know, her her dad was uh, you know, grew
Speaker 3: up in the Palisades, and so he's obviously pretty torn
Speaker 3: up about this. And yeah, it's it's a it's as
Speaker 3: nasty and yeah it's okay though. They they we are resilient.
Speaker 3: We we uh, we have some beautiful weather on the
Speaker 3: horizon and they're going to get this thing turned around.
Speaker 2: You you uh, I mean you know this better than I.
Speaker 2: But it's like that's the kind of thing that can
Speaker 2: never be prevented. Right, can happen any year anywhere up
Speaker 2: there with the brush right?
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it happens pretty some quasi regularly. But we
Speaker 3: had a bad cycle where we had two years in
Speaker 3: a row of a lot of rain and so the
Speaker 3: fuel just exploded growth wise, and then this summer was
Speaker 3: a dry and hot and we have had barely measurable
Speaker 3: rain through the fall and winter, where we usually have
Speaker 3: a little bit that kind of you know, kind of
Speaker 3: puts cools things off before the sant Anna's really really
Speaker 3: ripped in December and January, and so this was just
Speaker 3: sort of the perfect storm of a lot of fuel
Speaker 3: that hasn't burned in a while combined with just hllacious
Speaker 3: winds and the rest is history.
Speaker 2: Well glad you're okay, man, I know you're busy. You're
Speaker 2: in a busy stretch. So we'll do pre draw with
Speaker 2: you today. The draw comes out Civic Time, our time tonight,
Speaker 2: which is Australia tomorrow, and then Zach Cohen and I
Speaker 2: will do the post draw part of this podcast, which
Speaker 2: we'll put in audio. We'll also do Twitter live for
Speaker 2: that on Friday morning. How pumped are you, man, I'm
Speaker 2: so I'm so glad to be back.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I am extremely excited. You mentioned that up the top.
Speaker 3: The tennis calendar is unique.
Speaker 1: I love it.
Speaker 3: I don't think I would be a tennis better if
Speaker 3: it weren't for the fact that the calendar is so perfect.
Speaker 3: Phase out of regular season NFL, phase into daily tennis handicapping,
Speaker 3: and then phase out of daily Hannis cap tennis capping
Speaker 3: right with that fourth Slam in the US Open, ending
Speaker 3: you know, perfect handshake on CBS Week one, Friends, vinal
Speaker 3: it's a wrapp now it's football time, no, so it's
Speaker 3: it's it's the perfect uh you know, it's the perfect
Speaker 3: kind of handshake with football. There's something going on all
Speaker 3: over the world, you know, at all times of the day,
Speaker 3: and yeah, it's it's just a great it's a great sport.
Speaker 3: It's a great sport to handicap and uh, you know
Speaker 3: that I particularly like this this opening salvo down in
Speaker 3: the down in Oceania and the Australian Open itself is
Speaker 3: fun because at least for me, like you know, it
Speaker 3: starts in the afternoon, right, so it starts kind of
Speaker 3: in primetime, like you'll start to get you a little
Speaker 3: bit of a taste of tennis and then uh, you know,
Speaker 3: you fall asleep and then you wake up in the
Speaker 3: middle of night and you can't help but like flip
Speaker 3: open flash score just to see what happened. And then
Speaker 3: you know there's usually if there's if there's some straggling
Speaker 3: matches that they are still on when you get up
Speaker 3: in the morning, then you have tennis with coffee. So
Speaker 3: I love it.
Speaker 2: It's awesome. And for for the radio show that I
Speaker 2: do on a numbers game at Vson the way that
Speaker 2: the time zones work, I can't really give the picks
Speaker 2: that morning because the way that the time zones are
Speaker 2: that the handicapping comes after that. Yeah, yeah, and then
Speaker 2: so that'll be on the vson dot com slash picks page.
Speaker 2: Let's can we start with the ladies? Can we start
Speaker 2: with because you you were on a numbers game, you
Speaker 2: were kind enough to come on every Tuesday, and you
Speaker 2: were on yesterday and we talked about the lady side
Speaker 2: and so for the first time the big sort of change,
Speaker 2: the seat change, the sea change in the on the
Speaker 2: lady side. Is that for the first time in two years,
Speaker 2: Like it's longer, But twenty twenty two, I went through
Speaker 2: all my futures. It was just an EGA fest where
Speaker 2: she was like seven to one. I'm not just talking
Speaker 2: about the French Op, but I'm talking about I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm talking not talking about the US Open. At twenty
Speaker 2: end of twenty twenty one, I believe she won the
Speaker 2: US Open. Could be wrong about that. But twenty twenty
Speaker 2: two she won you know, Indian Wells, she won Miami,
Speaker 2: she did the Sunshine Double there and then she won
Speaker 2: other tournaments. And she was always like you could still
Speaker 2: get a really juicy number on her. Since then, she
Speaker 2: has been the number one player in tennis, and there
Speaker 2: is no tournament hard or clay or anything. Oh grass
Speaker 2: a little bit, but generally speaking she has always been
Speaker 2: either the shortest or you will only get a short
Speaker 2: number on her. We are back to a little bit
Speaker 2: of a drift, back to where now I think FanDuel
Speaker 2: has the longest number on her at plus six fifty,
Speaker 2: which is exactly what you said your fare was on
Speaker 2: her yesterday. And I just want to start by saying,
Speaker 2: are we as the pendulum swung too much? First question?
Speaker 3: Gut says it will have swung too much by the
Speaker 3: time we get to India. Well, I think, really that's
Speaker 3: when her season starts, and I get I guess like, yeah,
Speaker 3: we don't have the draw yet. So this is the
Speaker 3: part where we get to we just get to color right,
Speaker 3: or we're coloring in what has changed? What is new?
Speaker 3: What if we missed? You know what? What is the
Speaker 3: current landscape? And the landscape in women's tentence right now
Speaker 3: is it? Arena Sblanca is the top number, she's the
Speaker 3: top player, and she's not number one because she's played
Speaker 3: the most tournaments. She's been grinding out you know, deep runs.
Speaker 3: She's number one because from Cincinnati to the end of
Speaker 3: the year last year she was untouchable. Now, she did
Speaker 3: lose her last two matches in the tour finals, and
Speaker 3: if you want to, like, you know, grab onto some
Speaker 3: sort of hope that she is defeatable, like those were
Speaker 3: those were surprising losses and you know that said like
Speaker 3: she also lost her last tour too, in the tour
Speaker 3: finals the year before, and then was just an absolute
Speaker 3: steamroller in the Australian Open. So you know, this is
Speaker 3: this is kind of her time of the calendar to
Speaker 3: really put an exclamation point on the end of her
Speaker 3: her finale run of the previous year her I guess
Speaker 3: the you know, it's it's worth noting she's the you know,
Speaker 3: defending two time champion. She's gone for number three in
Speaker 3: a row. It is worth noting that both championship runs
Speaker 3: I thought were pretty like emphatic. This this surface is fast.
Speaker 3: This is a fast, hardcourt surface and unless there are
Speaker 3: you know, unusual wrinkles which you're not going to catch
Speaker 3: until we see more quality play about you know, changes
Speaker 3: that they may have made to the balls with the
Speaker 3: cord or just unusual weather. This is going to be
Speaker 3: a tournament that plays in door strengths, and for those reasons,
Speaker 3: her being world number one, her being on the top
Speaker 3: of the draw, and her having now you know, back
Speaker 3: to back, you know, pretty impressive success at this tournament.
Speaker 3: You just have to you just have to nod and
Speaker 3: respect it, like, yeah, this is this She's the rightful
Speaker 3: favorite and she's going to be tough to defeat now
Speaker 3: or is she unbeatable? Absolutely not, Like there are very
Speaker 3: This is not the This is not anywhere close to
Speaker 3: let's say Djokovic in what twenty sixteen, what was he
Speaker 3: had back to back titles and then went on just
Speaker 3: an absolute tear at this tournament. Right, This is not
Speaker 3: that it's best a three. This is you know, women's tennis.
Speaker 3: All it takes is you get in your own head.
Speaker 3: You have some double faults. It happens to be, oh,
Speaker 3: I don't know, the semi final round in Eure up
Speaker 3: against an opponent who's up that day, and you could lose.
Speaker 3: Sablanca has done this characteristically throughout her career, to the
Speaker 3: tune of I will never sit and bang on the
Speaker 3: table like I would for you get the French or
Speaker 3: back in the day Djokovic at the Australian, or back
Speaker 3: in the day Rafa at the French. Like this, you
Speaker 3: can't say that she is you know this, you know,
Speaker 3: just an unbeatable felt And I think that the prices
Speaker 3: they're seeing in the market right now are fair and
Speaker 3: respectful of her being the best. But you know, but
Speaker 3: I also don't think that this is a set it
Speaker 3: and forget it. Don't overthink this, just be Sabolenka and
Speaker 3: move on. So the other kind of factor, beyond just
Speaker 3: the fact that this is the format lends itself to chaos,
Speaker 3: is that the women's tour right now is really healthy,
Speaker 3: Like there are some really really decent players in decent
Speaker 3: form at the top. And to go back to your
Speaker 3: question about the pendulum for Ega, we know this is
Speaker 3: a little bit out of her comfort zone in terms
Speaker 3: of her strengths, you know, her skill set and her strengths.
Speaker 3: We know that, you know, she had a little bit
Speaker 3: of a uneven fall, to put it politely, didn't play
Speaker 3: much tennis, was not especially impressive at the tour finals,
Speaker 3: although went to the Billy Jean Cup Billy Jean King
Speaker 3: Cup and just managed to eke out three set victories
Speaker 3: over Bodosa, Niskova and Pallini. So like there's there's a
Speaker 3: there should be a little bit of a well of
Speaker 3: confidence there, you know. But but yeah, I mean, you know,
Speaker 3: she she she took she took a convincing loss at
Speaker 3: the hands of Sable incan Cincinnati. She took a convincing
Speaker 3: loss in the hands of Jessica Pagoula at the US
Speaker 3: Open uh Cocoa. Goff eliminated her in the round robin
Speaker 3: stage at the at the finals, and she doesn't have
Speaker 3: a whole lot of other tennis in this stretch, and
Speaker 3: we know her team is turned over. You may be
Speaker 3: able to speak to that more. Yeah, she's she's she's
Speaker 3: gone through some changes in terms of you know who
Speaker 3: she's listening to, what she's trying to do with her game,
Speaker 3: and you know, there's there's a lot about IGA's dominance
Speaker 3: that is a bit of a confidence game. And when
Speaker 3: I think of what it was that it made her
Speaker 3: unbeatable on clay in particular, this is that the women
Speaker 3: on the other side, the woman on the other side
Speaker 3: of the court, it's like, well, gonna need to be
Speaker 3: perfect to that and yep, yeah, probably not gonna happen.
Speaker 3: I maybe it had a good run, but I'm up
Speaker 3: against the EGA, and I don't think anyone really feels
Speaker 3: like that when they are up against her in Melbourne.
Speaker 2: I agree with everything jay Rod. By the way, shout
Speaker 2: out to Jay Rod, because he's always the one who
Speaker 2: keeps me informed on EGA's every move and every coaching move.
Speaker 2: By the way, her new coach seems to think she'll
Speaker 2: be good on grass. We'll see. Time will tell last
Speaker 2: thing about Egan. Then I want to move on to
Speaker 2: where I see some value and see if you agree
Speaker 2: with this again pre draw. We don't know how it
Speaker 2: stacks up in the actual bracket, but if we are
Speaker 2: doing raw data over hard courts, not not, you know,
Speaker 2: subject to the gradation of hardcore, because as Drew says,
Speaker 2: this is a fast hardcore, but just hardcourts in general
Speaker 2: calendar year, it is true that EGA's stratospheric numbers have
Speaker 2: dipped a bit, but not massively, but they have dipped
Speaker 2: as they have in a six month and her margin
Speaker 2: over the field beginning with Arenas Abalenka, has narrowed tremendously,
Speaker 2: but she still has the slight edge in the raw data.
Speaker 2: So I just I bring that up to say, let's
Speaker 2: not go crazy. But everything you're.
Speaker 3: Saying, yeah, and I guess again again pre draw, there's
Speaker 3: a world where six fifty is the best bet on
Speaker 3: the Board's right. That world is Cocoa GoF being drawn
Speaker 3: onto the top the third ranked player on the women's Tour.
Speaker 3: And I would say kind of co hottest player. I
Speaker 3: mean maybe hottest player as far as just like form
Speaker 3: being you know, being measured is Cocoa GoF and this
Speaker 3: is recent form right like and when you are trying
Speaker 3: to handicap Australia, in my opinion, you need to be
Speaker 3: looking very carefully at what a player has done to
Speaker 3: change their game, right and well, you're looking for two things.
Speaker 3: Are they in shape and have they made any meet
Speaker 3: you know, noticeable improvements to their weaknesses as you define
Speaker 3: them and you get a gauge of the shape, you know,
Speaker 3: the the you know the fitness, uh if they play
Speaker 3: some warm up matches and Goco gov she's remains one
Speaker 3: of the elite athletes on the women's tour. And then
Speaker 3: did she address some of the changes or concerns with
Speaker 3: her form? I would say yes, or with her with
Speaker 3: their with their game. And that was when I when
Speaker 3: I when you look at Coco and like, I've had
Speaker 3: mercurial relationship betting her. I thought, for I thought she
Speaker 3: should have run away with Wimbledon last year. I'm still
Speaker 3: very mad that she flopped. Uh and uh, you know
Speaker 3: that cost me a lot of money. But and I
Speaker 3: didn't really believe in her in her US Open run
Speaker 3: and title. I was on the Sablanca pretty heavy in
Speaker 3: that final that she's she she took down.
Speaker 2: And that was after her ridiculous summer, like yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: she she had such a poor year leading into the
Speaker 2: hard court and then just utterly exploded.
Speaker 3: And I was like, I was like, this will, this
Speaker 3: heater will come to an end. It didn't. But but
Speaker 3: I would say that, like one of the reasons that
Speaker 3: I lack confidence in really going to the will with
Speaker 3: Coco is because her second serve is an absolute liability.
Speaker 3: And every player on tour knows what knows what's coming,
Speaker 3: where it's coming, what the speed will be, and how
Speaker 3: to attack it. And so with her first serve is
Speaker 3: you know, is abandoning her. Then her second serve was
Speaker 3: her downfall. And I would say that what I saw
Speaker 3: at the United Cup from her in some very compelling wins,
Speaker 3: was more variety, a different grip on her second serve,
Speaker 3: more velocity, and you know less of an achilles heel. Right,
Speaker 3: So I think you have to kind of recognize Coco
Speaker 3: right now as your second choice in terms of just
Speaker 3: what is a fair rating for her on this surface.
Speaker 3: The problem is she could be on the top half
Speaker 3: and then EGA only has to play one of those,
Speaker 3: which makes six plus six fifty a no brainer bet
Speaker 3: in my opinion. So as I'm watching the women's draw,
Speaker 3: and as I'm hovering over a future's bet, that's what
Speaker 3: I'm looking for. Where's Coco top or bottom?
Speaker 2: Where's Coco right? And that will be the most interesting
Speaker 2: thing on the women's side. And I agree with you
Speaker 2: there is a world where that Egos fiatex number has
Speaker 2: the most value. I would like to throw out two
Speaker 2: more players for you, because unlike the men's side, I
Speaker 2: was talking about this on the radio side this morning,
Speaker 2: Unlike the men's side where there is quote unquote of
Speaker 2: value on a couple of players. Ultimately, when it gets
Speaker 2: down to it, you're like, okay, but they're not why
Speaker 2: they're not being centered Alcohoraz. When it gets down to
Speaker 2: it on the lady side, I actually think it's legit.
Speaker 3: I agree these two players.
Speaker 2: For me again just raw data wise on hard courts,
Speaker 2: and this passes the eye test. Also Carolina Mohova Mira
Speaker 2: andre who are both twenty five to one and to
Speaker 2: me are priced way out of wat like I don't
Speaker 2: have those as twenty five.
Speaker 3: I agree with that they're they are both. They're both
Speaker 3: I would qualify as again quote unquote in the mix
Speaker 3: here to to ship. Mukhova especially, her game is is very,
Speaker 3: very tough on an opponent, right, Like there's a there's
Speaker 3: a a cleanness of finesse, a structure, a vision that
Speaker 3: it makes. It's tough, it's it's beautiful, it's very She's
Speaker 3: not an easy easy out, even if you are clearly
Speaker 3: the better player. Right, We've seen this match is on
Speaker 3: player x's racket and Mohova, like it's just she's just
Speaker 3: tough to tough to beat. She almost got you get
Speaker 3: the French final a couple of years ago. It was
Speaker 3: that last year, Probably was that that was two years ago, right,
Speaker 3: I think there was two years ago. Yeah, And she's
Speaker 3: dealt with injuries, which is why her ranking is nonsense.
Speaker 3: But she's a top five player for me, and I
Speaker 3: think twenty five to one is absolutely absolutely value and
Speaker 3: honestly like maybe more even than her big likely or
Speaker 3: dangerous here to win. She's the kind of player that's
Speaker 3: going to ruin the hopes of a higher seeded player,
Speaker 3: right Like she could ruin this tournament for Sabline, because
Speaker 3: she could ruin this tournament for Ego. She could ruin
Speaker 3: this tournament for Coco, And what I mean by that
Speaker 3: is if she's in their quarter she could win that
Speaker 3: quarterfinal and then all bets are off. So yeah, she's
Speaker 3: she's ranked low enough that she's not going to get
Speaker 3: a great Did you see where her ranking is, By
Speaker 3: the way, she's seated twentieth, Like she is literally a
Speaker 3: like a landmine in this draw. She's going to land
Speaker 3: somewhere and really really wreck this or just have the
Speaker 3: the possibility of wrecking this for someone. And your andre
Speaker 3: Va commentary is I think fair. Also, however, I would
Speaker 3: qualify it that's she's less of a controls her own destiny.
Speaker 3: In my opinion, she's good enough to win, but I
Speaker 3: think there are certain obstacles certain players she hasn't solved
Speaker 3: that she's going to need someone else to take out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with that. You correct me if I'm wrong.
Speaker 2: When you were on a numbers game the other day,
Speaker 2: did you not bring up because I thought of you
Speaker 2: as I was crunching numbers and I was like, oh,
Speaker 2: now it makes sense. Did you not bring up Belinda
Speaker 2: Benchic the other day?
Speaker 3: Yeah? Her story is fun to tell because her number
Speaker 3: was it was ridiculous. I think on the open first,
Speaker 3: you know, just unshaped markets. I want to say, she
Speaker 3: was like one hundred and fifty to one. I think
Speaker 3: there were a lot of markets Fandul included that didn't
Speaker 3: even list her. Yeah, speaking of potential anaments. Yeah, and
Speaker 3: you know she again like she has the high enough
Speaker 3: quality that she's going to be a factor. And her
Speaker 3: story is fun because bench It was last a kind
Speaker 3: of a real contender, I want to say, like Wimbledon
Speaker 3: twenty twenty three, right, and then she got pregnant, she
Speaker 3: had a baby, she had Mattornity leave, and then last
Speaker 3: fall very quietly entered some lower stage tournaments to get
Speaker 3: her fitness back to really kind of ramp up for
Speaker 3: this year, making a like an emphatic return and in
Speaker 3: I missed it entirely that she was even playing in
Speaker 3: November December or October November. I didn't even see it
Speaker 3: and went through the number grabbed the numbers, comes to
Speaker 3: them like, oh, man, like she's playing like a top
Speaker 3: twenty player right now, like she's playing Massivenmber. It's very small,
Speaker 3: they're they're they're lower ranked players. But she was doing
Speaker 3: what you expect, like she's she's getting the job done well.
Speaker 3: And then you look at the market pricing of her
Speaker 3: in some of those and you're like, oh, okay, so
Speaker 3: match my match. She's being treated like a top ten
Speaker 3: player right like like that, like like like this is
Speaker 3: no one's surprised by this. But then you marry that
Speaker 3: with the Future's book, where she was like one hundred
Speaker 3: and fifty, and you're like, well, this is stupid. This
Speaker 3: is clearly wrong betting that now. And then she looked
Speaker 3: great in a first couple United Cup appearances before belly
Speaker 3: flopping against Jazzmine Paulini, who I think is also in
Speaker 3: the mix, but probably at the bottom of the list
Speaker 3: of mixed players.
Speaker 2: I was going to go through certain players with you,
Speaker 2: and I'm My question for her was like is it over? Like,
Speaker 2: is this thing over with Pliny or not?
Speaker 3: She looks good, she looks I don't see any of
Speaker 3: the like, I yeah, it was easy. It's easy to
Speaker 3: characterize her success in twenty twenty four is fluky, but
Speaker 3: like she looks to be leaning into what was good
Speaker 3: about her game, which was going for the margins right,
Speaker 3: like not just not just rallying, not just being a backboard,
Speaker 3: but like literally trying to hit it into the corners.
Speaker 3: And if you're gonna win, if you're gonna win in Melbourne,
Speaker 3: you need to be able to hit those precision shots.
Speaker 3: Like You're not going to get away with rally tolerance here,
Speaker 3: no way. And so Jim, I don't think she's a
Speaker 3: serious contender, but I would have to give her more
Speaker 3: than like four percent.
Speaker 2: And the most adorable post match interviews you will ever find.
Speaker 3: Yes, and the least respected player by John McEnroe for
Speaker 3: some reason.
Speaker 2: Yeah, why he's such a real Like why see, Sylvie,
Speaker 2: let me just throw out, Let me just throw out
Speaker 2: some random If you had finished your thought, I can
Speaker 2: throw out some.
Speaker 3: Randomh yah yeah no no, no, that like yeah but
Speaker 3: benchic Yeah, yeah, I guess the final thought on benchach
Speaker 3: is if you can still find a stale monster number,
Speaker 3: I would just put it in your back pocket. If
Speaker 3: you can't find that, then you know, let's see where
Speaker 3: quarter she lands in, and her quarter price is probably
Speaker 3: going to be bettable.
Speaker 2: Camera change threw me off.
Speaker 3: Yeah, because yeah, the question with benches. She's going to
Speaker 3: have a day rest in between matches. But is she fit?
Speaker 3: We don't really know. Like that looked to me at
Speaker 3: least like part of the reason that Paladini got her
Speaker 3: so convincingly, which was that she just like looked tired.
Speaker 2: All right, let's do rapid fire. Give a name, you
Speaker 2: give me your first thought that comes to mind.
Speaker 3: Reboka mental disaster. I cannot believe her coach is back
Speaker 3: in her team. This is so bad what I asked her?
Speaker 3: What like I went from I went from like cautious.
Speaker 3: Remember we talked about the kind of year in number
Speaker 3: one conversation. I was like, she's got it, even Eastvich
Speaker 3: in her corner. Now like the guy rid of that
Speaker 3: that abusive you know, you know clown that was in
Speaker 3: her honor team before he was suspended, Well now he's back, so.
Speaker 2: Finesse his way back in somehow, and she's she's like
Speaker 2: she's like a hostage.
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, yes, exactly. It's and and my specific opinion
Speaker 3: is he's been coaching her since she was a teenager.
Speaker 3: They have a romantic relationship, and so there's an attachment
Speaker 3: there that's impossible to just walk away from without you know,
Speaker 3: collateral damage. And so we're we're apparently we're going to
Speaker 3: live through this for another year with her, which absolutely stinks.
Speaker 3: And I would be surprised if Ivanovitch sticks around. He
Speaker 3: seemed like he was surprised.
Speaker 2: He's already gone, no, he's not. To be clear, he
Speaker 2: is not, but yes, if you read between the lines,
Speaker 2: he's like, well I'm here for now.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we'll see how this go.
Speaker 2: But but if it happens, he's not sticking around as
Speaker 2: like a I don't coach.
Speaker 3: There's no more toxic relationship than women's sports that I
Speaker 3: can point to than Rebakka and her coach.
Speaker 2: It's kind of it's kind of like I feel dirty
Speaker 2: watching it because you because everybody's on the phone page
Speaker 2: and it's like oh no.
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, and there's nothing that anyone can do about it,
Speaker 3: particularly they've tried, and she specifically is pulling back in
Speaker 3: so like this goes to say, like she's talented enough
Speaker 3: to be in the conversation with the top three, but
Speaker 3: the mental stuff and the distraction and whatever is going
Speaker 3: on right now with her, and this guy's got me
Speaker 3: off entirely. Osaka man, I really wanted this to be
Speaker 3: a return to glory for her, Not that I especially
Speaker 3: love her as a player, but it's just fun to
Speaker 3: have a wild card like that who can beat anyone
Speaker 3: on any given day in the mix her quality. The
Speaker 3: best match of the Women's Tour last year, in my
Speaker 3: opinion of any match in any tournament, was Ega Switch
Speaker 3: Open Unmovia. And yeah, we know in her we know
Speaker 3: on any given day she has world number one quality
Speaker 3: in her back pocket. And in her warm up event
Speaker 3: she looked amazing before retiring in the final, And so
Speaker 3: I know that happened. And I set Google News alerts
Speaker 3: for Osaka just as like I want to know right when. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I want to know if she withdraws or if like
Speaker 3: she comes out and it's like, oh no, everything's fine.
Speaker 3: This was just precautionary. I have my eyes on the
Speaker 3: Australian Open and I think I can win. That's why
Speaker 3: I retired in the final, right, But all I'm getting
Speaker 3: with this Google news alert thing is that she broke
Speaker 3: up with her boyfriend, who was a rapper apparently, and
Speaker 3: they went together for Corday. Yeah, do you know that
Speaker 3: was over? I know that's over.
Speaker 2: Because I did not know that was I only knew
Speaker 2: it was over after she withdrew.
Speaker 3: I don't know how to fix my Google news too.
Speaker 3: I want Oscca news, but I don't want Corday news
Speaker 3: any way.
Speaker 2: Corday and I kind of know hip hop. I couldn't
Speaker 2: tell you, but yeah, she she broke up with him,
Speaker 2: brapper pull exactly to pull out of a final. Jay
Speaker 2: Rod I believe said he had a future on her
Speaker 2: to win the tournament. So that's that's just a.
Speaker 3: She was dominating Thowisan dominance, and she looks very inform.
Speaker 3: If she is fine, if she's physically fine, she can
Speaker 3: win this tournament.
Speaker 2: Didn't she win the first set? Am I remembering that wrong?
Speaker 2: Didn't she win the Yeah?
Speaker 3: She won the first set, but like but it was,
Speaker 3: she was up five to two. She could have closed
Speaker 3: it out six to two. She got some kind of injury,
Speaker 3: she got broken. She uh she did. She had a
Speaker 3: chance to close it out on Thomson's serve. She didn't,
Speaker 3: and then she closed it out six four, and then
Speaker 3: she retired and like tousand was defeated, Like that was
Speaker 3: not a fair fight, and she wins the title. So
Speaker 3: I feel for j Rod. That sucks.
Speaker 2: Suck just a few more and then we'll move to
Speaker 2: the men's side. And again, this is just pre draw
Speaker 2: thoughts here through the post draw Friday. Uh Danielle freaking
Speaker 2: Collins who refuses to retire.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a mess. She's not She's not a
Speaker 3: factor for me at all. And I don't understand what
Speaker 3: she was doing at the United Cup. I don't understand
Speaker 3: why she didn't retire, because it doesn't feel like her
Speaker 3: heart is necessarily in it to play. Maybe maybe I'm wrong,
Speaker 3: Maybe I'm reading the situation wrong. She doesn't look fit
Speaker 3: to me. Maybe she's like.
Speaker 2: A lovely person. Though, Drew, we gotta give her.
Speaker 3: You want to you want a little conspiracy theory. I
Speaker 3: think she looked at the math and she was like,
Speaker 3: my ranking is high enough that I'm going to get
Speaker 3: a lot of money to play in Australia. I'm gonna
Speaker 3: get a lot of money to play Indian Wells. I
Speaker 3: got to defend my title at Miami and then I'm
Speaker 3: Marilla to retire. I think I think she's literally just
Speaker 3: paycheck paycheck paycheck. She went to the United Cup where
Speaker 3: she was never going to play for an appearance fee,
Speaker 3: Like she's literally just trying to have the retirement fund
Speaker 3: on the way out the door, which is axious to me.
Speaker 3: So Collins not a factor, and.
Speaker 2: Okay, last one for me, and then you can tell
Speaker 2: me anybody else. Jang Shinwick injury.
Speaker 3: Red flag, I'm out, I don't like the ship truth
Speaker 3: from the United Cup.
Speaker 2: And yeah, anybody else noteworthy for you when you're.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Pagoula injury, red flag, not not expecting Pula to
Speaker 3: be a factor here, Navarro form red flag. Yeah, Navarro
Speaker 3: doesn't look good. I think her rating like like you
Speaker 3: know how you can look at like what's your rating
Speaker 3: verse like what's your ranking versus like how you ought
Speaker 3: to be rated, and like like a player like benchit Osaka,
Speaker 3: like their rating ranking is way under their rating right now.
Speaker 3: For me, Novara is the other the other direction, like
Speaker 3: I have her more like a top thirty player, not
Speaker 3: a top eight. And I didn't like what I saw
Speaker 3: from her. So far in the warm up, so maybe
Speaker 3: she pulls pulls something out of her hat, but I'm
Speaker 3: not seeing it.
Speaker 2: I want a lot of money on her when she
Speaker 2: was big dogs, big dogs against.
Speaker 3: But the numbers are I think she's a fad as
Speaker 3: a favorite bet as a dog kind of a player.
Speaker 2: Yeah, uh, Cosina who you bring up? Though? For me,
Speaker 2: isn't that category of terrifying.
Speaker 3: Always terrifying always, but the least terrifying she'll ever be
Speaker 3: in Melbourne?
Speaker 2: True? Anyone else or we covered it.
Speaker 3: I think I'm just kind of going down the list here.
Speaker 3: But Dosa is interesting to me, but she's not and
Speaker 3: she's not an especially good form. Schneider is a cross off.
Speaker 3: I'm disappointed with her.
Speaker 2: I was going to ask you, but that was going
Speaker 2: to be when I.
Speaker 3: I like her as like a future top ten player,
Speaker 3: but I'm not seeing her performing to top ten level
Speaker 3: right now.
Speaker 2: So she had a yeah about Mattie Keys.
Speaker 3: Mattie Keys I think is a toss. But it's her
Speaker 3: she's got. She's got that weird thing where in slams
Speaker 3: her numbers just look better for some reason, like when
Speaker 3: the matches matter the most, she's a little bit better
Speaker 3: compared to just tour stuff. There's a couple of players
Speaker 3: who are like that, women's and men's, and she's sort
Speaker 3: of the kind of the quintessential example I would point
Speaker 3: to and be like doubter he in Adelaide better in Melbourne,
Speaker 3: kind of a kind of a deal. But yeah, I
Speaker 3: don't think she's winning seven matches here. I would toss
Speaker 3: count Sky, you're thirteen. I would toss had Ad Mai
Speaker 3: or fifteen. Although she is an absolute warrior, she'll have
Speaker 3: some three set matches. I assume Asta Panko's a toss,
Speaker 3: MARTA's toss, Vecha catass Azarenka toss. I don't see anyone
Speaker 3: kind of down the list here who's going to be
Speaker 3: seated that I would be intrigued by. And I think,
Speaker 3: you know, kind of watch watch for the women's side,
Speaker 3: like there'll be someone who comes through qualifying or someone
Speaker 3: who's outside of the top thirty two who makes the
Speaker 3: round of sixteen. There always is, and I haven't figured
Speaker 3: out who that is yet until we kind of see
Speaker 3: what the draw looks like.
Speaker 2: What about your girls, your boor No.
Speaker 3: She's playing a lot better than she was this time
Speaker 3: last year. Now Andreva got her head to head. But
Speaker 3: if you remember like the fall of ants Jibor, well
Speaker 3: it was Wimbledon, but like when when she when when
Speaker 3: the bottom was was starting to come in. It was
Speaker 3: last year at the Australian Open, when Indreva I want
Speaker 3: to think, went like sixty sixty two against her and
Speaker 3: that was flattering, Like I don't know how she went
Speaker 3: four games. She was playing that poorly, and she played
Speaker 3: Induryva heck of a lot tougher in the warm up
Speaker 3: this year. Yeah, so she yeah, onns could be there
Speaker 3: in week two, and I think, honestly, like I beyond
Speaker 3: just liking her as a person and a player, like
Speaker 3: I would like to see that just for the confidence
Speaker 3: that that would inspire and getting her back into sort
Speaker 3: of the top twenty kind of discussion.
Speaker 2: So I have in my account and I'm usually just in.
Speaker 2: You know, I've gone a couple of years now where
Speaker 2: it's like I bet eagor or I don't bet anybody.
Speaker 2: How do you have some Ega? I have some Mandreva
Speaker 2: and I have some Mahova. You have anything?
Speaker 3: Bet so far benchit at monster numbers and waiting to
Speaker 3: see cocoa GoF top or bottom to make a decision
Speaker 3: on whether to get Eiga six fifty. I think other
Speaker 3: than that number, I don't know that there's like a
Speaker 3: slam dunk the market. It looks very close to my numbers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, you said fair plus six to fifty on
Speaker 2: Egan market general looks it's pretty close cosistent with your number. Okay,
Speaker 2: let's go to a men's side. We don't have to
Speaker 2: spend nearly as much time on the men's side, because,
Speaker 2: as I said, I could sit here and tell you
Speaker 2: which I will right now that I see quote unquote
Speaker 2: value right numbers wise on juxtaposed against the future's market
Speaker 2: predraw on Alex Demnor at fifty to one and a
Speaker 2: little bit of Gregor Demetrov at sixty six to one.
Speaker 2: But unlike the women's tour, I genuinely don't believe that
Speaker 2: that translates to a title. So I'm curious. So is
Speaker 2: this Center and Alcahoraz and everybody else? We'll just speak.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's what do you mean everybody else? Is Center?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 3: I don't mean to be that glib, but like, does
Speaker 3: anyone really have a meaningful chance to beat either of
Speaker 3: those players in their current I'm very cool on him,
Speaker 3: and I think I think maybe there's kind of a
Speaker 3: couple of I mean, I had the unfortunate the I
Speaker 3: had the misfortune of watching some of Joker versus Riley Opelka.
Speaker 2: Oh I saw the.
Speaker 3: Y yikes, yikes. That is a player that Joker solved
Speaker 3: with like with distinction hard courts when he was anywhere
Speaker 3: close to title town. And to see that that that
Speaker 3: was a big red flag. I'm a little like I
Speaker 3: was kind of following him pretty casually through the fall
Speaker 3: just to see, like, is there any signal that he's
Speaker 3: like really ramping up for like one more Aussie title
Speaker 3: because this is really like this is his home. You know,
Speaker 3: he obviously has a ton of legacy at Wimbledon, but
Speaker 3: like his this is it for him, Like this is
Speaker 3: his you know ra rafa Roland Garros kind of deal.
Speaker 3: And you know what, you don't really want to see
Speaker 3: if you're thinking, like, yeah, this is my final run.
Speaker 3: Like having a buddy buddy coaching relationship with Andy Murray
Speaker 3: was weird doing all this press where were talking about
Speaker 3: how like getting deported from Australia was like all this
Speaker 3: mental baggage and you're not sure you'd gotten over it.
Speaker 3: And then going out and playing with Polka and having
Speaker 3: no answers for a guy who's so one dimensional, like
Speaker 3: all of these are negative ticks, negative ticks, negative ticks.
Speaker 3: He's coming into this now seated seventh, so he's going
Speaker 3: to have to play uh you know, center Acres and
Speaker 3: the quarterfinal he's going to be for me. My fair
Speaker 3: number on that is going to be like four to one,
Speaker 3: five to one to win that match, and he's like
Speaker 3: four to win the title, Like there's no there's no way,
Speaker 3: there's no way I could could support it. And this
Speaker 3: isn't to say he's not going to play his way
Speaker 3: into form with a very soft draw, because they do
Speaker 3: love him here and they do like to give him
Speaker 3: favorable draws. But you know, we'll uh uh, we'll see
Speaker 3: what ends up happening. He's probably a bet against for
Speaker 3: me in week two.
Speaker 2: I believe you mentioned well before I get to who,
Speaker 2: you mentioned it, since you bring up Opelka, the serve
Speaker 2: bot type player, which I always struggle with because they
Speaker 2: just don't translate in terms of the numbers. Mapechi Paracard, like,
Speaker 2: is that your guy of all these gout you know,
Speaker 2: used to be team he was the kind of guy.
Speaker 3: He's the best serve on tour right now?
Speaker 2: Yeah, the best Yeah, best one.
Speaker 3: On pet pair card is your is your is your
Speaker 3: top server on tour right now? Right?
Speaker 2: But so so do you that alone could get him deep?
Speaker 3: You think you're week week two? Yeah, week two, I
Speaker 3: think you know. He he has the the I forget
Speaker 3: what the saying is, but yeah, he has the lateral
Speaker 3: movement of a of a fire hydrant. He's he literally
Speaker 3: can't move laterally, which is hilarious, but his service.
Speaker 2: Everybody's waiting for a serve.
Speaker 3: I'm like, yeah, and I think actually for pair card
Speaker 3: what you were looking like. He's not even a rhythm
Speaker 3: and timing guy, right, It's just always good, which I
Speaker 3: think is is kind of useful to think of, like
Speaker 3: some of the guys who are liver or die by
Speaker 3: the serve, like you can gauge like man, he just
Speaker 3: doesn't have the rhythm and timing down right now. I've
Speaker 3: never never felt like that watching g m P. But
Speaker 3: I would say that as soon as he comes up
Speaker 3: against the player of quality who can kind of shape
Speaker 3: shots and and really and handle the you know, get
Speaker 3: the return back and play, he's in trouble and the
Speaker 3: players that I would kind of qualify and that discussion
Speaker 3: would be players like Alex demon Hour, even Casper Rude.
Speaker 3: You know these are rude. I would not say he
Speaker 3: doesn't have a reasonable chance to win here, but he's
Speaker 3: going to get enough back to to really frustrate pair
Speaker 3: Car and then yeah, demon Hour, I think demon Hour
Speaker 3: is probably a little underrated. Looking at the board right now,
Speaker 3: you know, I think I again, like, I think there
Speaker 3: are two men who realistically can win this. I think
Speaker 3: we will, like unless Alcarez gets seated on the top,
Speaker 3: this is probably just the Australian Open for the men
Speaker 3: starts on Sunday January. But no, I think the the
Speaker 3: kind of the the sorting after the top two, well,
Speaker 3: I I should say two things. I don't agree with
Speaker 3: the price at the top, and we can kind of
Speaker 3: dig into this a bit in the SEC. But then
Speaker 3: the sorting beyond the top two I think is, uh,
Speaker 3: it's kind of nonsense. But I'm not really interested in
Speaker 3: putting money to work to shape it because I don't
Speaker 3: think any of that's coming back.
Speaker 2: I think it's all they're always exactly my that's exactly
Speaker 2: my point. It's like there's value, and then there's value
Speaker 2: that's just.
Speaker 3: Scar Yeah, oh great, there's value. Who cares like Zverev
Speaker 3: is too short? Okay? Who cares Djokovic is too short? Okay?
Speaker 3: Who cares like? Honestly, like if I I guess, I
Speaker 3: think the right side to be on in the Australian
Speaker 3: Open Men's tournament is the bookmaker's side, because they're going
Speaker 3: to be writing a lot of a lot of losing action.
Speaker 3: I think down the board in this futures market, Zverev
Speaker 3: is a toss. Medvedev is a toss. Even though Medvedev
Speaker 3: plays phenomenally well here traditionally, I've not seen it right now,
Speaker 3: he did not he I wish he had hired Ivanovich. Honestly,
Speaker 3: that would have been the match made in Heaven to
Speaker 3: kind of take him to, you know, get some late
Speaker 3: career slam success.
Speaker 2: No right, no, coach, I.
Speaker 3: Know it's killing me. It's killing me. He needs he
Speaker 3: needs a guy like Ivanovich to help him kind of
Speaker 3: not solve players, but make his game a little bit
Speaker 3: more varied. Yeah, so it's very is a toss. Mevodives
Speaker 3: a toss, Ruds a toss, Djokovic toss Rube love toss,
Speaker 3: Dimitrov toss. I know you. Your price on Demitrov was good,
Speaker 3: but he's dealing with injury. He's an injury red flag
Speaker 3: for me, So he's a toss system Pass is an
Speaker 3: aggressive toss. His performance at the United Cup was appallingly bad,
Speaker 3: like yes, oh my god, he was like he was like,
Speaker 3: you're lucky to be in this straw buddy, Like that
Speaker 3: was like if you had to qualify for this tournament,
Speaker 3: I don't know if you're doing it. It was bad, interesting,
Speaker 3: but not good enough?
Speaker 1: Are you?
Speaker 3: And I lost my my news alrics for sis a pass.
Speaker 3: I turned those off a lot of time. He's not
Speaker 3: on my radar, but yeah, sis pause is as Paul
Speaker 3: is interesting, but probably not to the tune of his rank.
Speaker 3: You know, he's probably he's rated twelve, he's probably ranked
Speaker 3: twelve ruin a similar story, thirteen thirteen. And then Draper
Speaker 3: is way overrated by the market right now because he's
Speaker 3: an injury red flag.
Speaker 2: But he was so actual last year and now he's over.
Speaker 3: So underrated last year, and keep keep an eye on
Speaker 3: him because he's like got top eight potential this year,
Speaker 3: but he's hurt now, like he withdrew from the United
Speaker 3: Cup and then also withdrew from everything after the Australian Open,
Speaker 3: which tells you he's coming here for a paycheck and
Speaker 3: maybe maybe a couple of rounds. Like they, I don't
Speaker 3: think he should be anywhere close to his the price
Speaker 3: he is in the market. But again, like I'm not
Speaker 3: interested really in getting getting weird there. I thought there
Speaker 3: was a chance Ben Shelton could be fun.
Speaker 2: But that's what I was going to ask you about,
Speaker 2: because you brought him up the other day. I did
Speaker 2: last night the men sick took him down. Yaku Menz
Speaker 2: is one of my favorite players on tour.
Speaker 3: Good great, yeah, great, the great underdog, kind of feisty,
Speaker 3: he stays, you know, he'll rally outrally, But like Sheldon now,
Speaker 3: feels like he's on like the Taylor Fritz trajectory where
Speaker 3: he's just going to go through this rocky, underwhelming portion
Speaker 3: of time through his younger twenties before maybe peaking in
Speaker 3: his later twenties. We'll see, what.
Speaker 2: About Tlor Fritz.
Speaker 1: Since you bring him.
Speaker 3: Up, I don't mind making him the third choice. Honestly,
Speaker 3: I'll listen to it. He played well at the United Cup.
Speaker 3: I thought. The player who gave him the most trouble,
Speaker 3: by the way, at the United Cup was Leela Fernandez
Speaker 3: in the in the mixed doubles. I don't know if
Speaker 3: you saw that, but she was like absolutely like flabbergasted
Speaker 3: by her. Sir, he was like, what is happening here?
Speaker 3: I could not get it back in It was. He
Speaker 3: was visibly frustrated. Cocoa gob was laughing at him, like
Speaker 3: like what are you doing? And yeah, everything else I
Speaker 3: saw from him in the United Cup that looked pretty
Speaker 3: dang good. And I don't mind making.
Speaker 2: By the way, brief aside, how is Leela not gotten?
Speaker 2: She got to the US Open final a lot of
Speaker 2: cod beater. How is she not advanced further? I would
Speaker 2: have thought she would have.
Speaker 3: She's been tweaking her game in ways that is not helpful,
Speaker 3: Like she's kind of coaching back getting coached backwards to
Speaker 3: a degree.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 3: I don't think she's I don't think she's got the
Speaker 3: right team around her because she's gotten, she's she's growing,
Speaker 3: like she's gotten more physically impressive, but yeah, the quality
Speaker 3: of her game is just not coming along.
Speaker 2: I'm sorry.
Speaker 3: Yeah, basically, yeah, no, it was just every I think Fritz,
Speaker 3: make him your third choice. I put him over Zvera personally,
Speaker 3: but I also I also would say he should be
Speaker 3: like four to one head to head against Alcarez and
Speaker 3: maybe six to one against Center.
Speaker 2: If I I always say this, if I came to
Speaker 2: you from the future and I said, guess what Drew
Speaker 2: Sinner nor Alcarez, neither of them won this? Yes, who
Speaker 2: won it?
Speaker 3: You would say, Okay, so that's gonna happen. That's potentially
Speaker 3: going to happen at some Slam this year, right, Yes,
Speaker 3: you will, probably the US Open, though I don't think
Speaker 3: it's here. If it's if it's not, if it's not
Speaker 3: one of them, who is it. I'll give it to
Speaker 3: Medvedev just because the quality of tennis we've seen from
Speaker 3: him at this particular tournament has been impressively high through
Speaker 3: the years, and he could just tree and be very
Speaker 3: tough to defeat and take one of those guys out.
Speaker 2: I told you I don't need to coach.
Speaker 3: No, yeah, I mean I yeah, I mean I guess
Speaker 3: that the the the easy answer is Djokovic, But I
Speaker 3: really that would really surprise me.
Speaker 2: With what's thy seven years old? Thirty seven years old.
Speaker 3: Yeah, like like that. When you asked the question like that,
Speaker 3: Like my immediate response is, well, who's won a title
Speaker 3: here before? Because that's probably who it's going to be, right, like.
Speaker 2: You know my media response, My immediate thought was how
Speaker 2: they get hurt?
Speaker 3: Yeah exactly? Well yeah, like were they in a car
Speaker 3: acentded together? So they got Yeah, they got they got
Speaker 3: arrested on their way to Melbourne and deported for something
Speaker 3: really weird or whatever. But the yeah, they defaulted by
Speaker 3: hitting a ball woman in the in the throat. But yeah,
Speaker 3: the the there are random stuff like that happens. But no,
Speaker 3: I think it would have to if there's a surprise,
Speaker 3: it would have to be someone who's won this tournament before,
Speaker 3: in my opinion, and that would be memoed of. So
Speaker 3: that's my that's my that would be my go to.
Speaker 2: I broke your floor. Any other names you wanted to
Speaker 2: just throw out.
Speaker 3: Or just get back to Cinner versus Akras? How do
Speaker 3: you price that final?
Speaker 2: Uh, Sinner will be your favorite? And minus one forty five?
Speaker 3: Okay, I'm not that far off. I'm like in minus
Speaker 3: one sixty five. But when I look at the prices
Speaker 3: for Center and alcraz out right that screens bet. Alcrez
Speaker 3: alright to me, like his numbers big, and there is
Speaker 3: a couple of things.
Speaker 2: I think Kelly asked me that this morning on the
Speaker 2: on the radio side, he was like, is thatarez?
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I think it is. I think it is,
Speaker 3: And there's this is So I think official pick for
Speaker 3: me is going to be, in fact, the only official
Speaker 3: bet I'll have on this podcast outside of the long
Speaker 3: gone number that took on one bench. It's just going
Speaker 3: to be Alcaz out right. I don't really care about
Speaker 3: where he lands top or bottom. He's just got to
Speaker 3: be one man and it's young Center, And is that possible?
Speaker 1: Gil?
Speaker 3: Has he ever beaten Center before? Did he play him
Speaker 3: three times last year and defeat him all three times? Yes?
Speaker 1: He did.
Speaker 3: Like he literally is able to raise his game and
Speaker 3: is in the head. He's a little bit in the
Speaker 3: head of Jannick Center. He's got a very impressive head
Speaker 3: to head record against that player. And I would also
Speaker 3: say that kind of the one thing that distinguishes their
Speaker 3: game in a neutral setting is that Center gets more
Speaker 3: free points on surf serves a little better. Alcrez to me,
Speaker 3: from what I've seen just with looking at some of
Speaker 3: the practice tapes so far, looks to have changed his surf.
Speaker 3: Is there is a slight difference in the kind of
Speaker 3: fluidity where there is less of a like a hiccup,
Speaker 3: less of a cock back. That is, I think is
Speaker 3: going to give him a little bit more variety. It's
Speaker 3: going to make the it's going to make the serf
Speaker 3: feel faster, even if it's the same speed, just because
Speaker 3: of the fluidity. And I think the I think the
Speaker 3: easier points are going to be there for him this
Speaker 3: year on this hard court. And uh, I think he
Speaker 3: completes the career Slam in a fortnite from now.
Speaker 2: Wow, career Slam already? How that happen? Which is just written?
Speaker 2: It just seems like yesterday when I was betting on
Speaker 2: him in a random clay court tournament at the end
Speaker 2: of the Earth, late at night somewhere in South America,
Speaker 2: when he was like fifteen years old or something.
Speaker 3: That's the other thing, like people aren't really getting like
Speaker 3: maybe Sinner can get better too, but I think Sinners
Speaker 3: basically there. I think he's at his the peak of
Speaker 3: his powers. Like I'm not sure he's going to get
Speaker 3: more lateral quickness or more spin on his like on
Speaker 3: his forehand right like he is. Also they both had
Speaker 3: I think Aucre still has more to grow.
Speaker 2: They've also both had injury problems. But you get the
Speaker 2: feeling that sinners are more debilitate.
Speaker 3: Yes, yes, absolutely, And look no further than the fact
Speaker 3: that alcraz won the French Open with a freaking bomb
Speaker 3: elbow on his forehand side, like he couldn't spin the
Speaker 3: ball on clay, and he still won the tournament. For
Speaker 3: crying out loud like that's absurd.
Speaker 2: It's awesome. I'm glad we're here for those again, for
Speaker 2: those and I'm glad everybody's you know, tuning in here live.
Speaker 2: Thanks to everybody tuning in live on Twitter. It is
Speaker 2: if you are not a tennis better it is. I
Speaker 2: I can Maybe I shouldn't speak for Drew, but it's
Speaker 2: my favorite sport that I think it's Drew's as well, definitely,
Speaker 2: and it only it only gets more awesome now here.
Speaker 2: And you're so right about the football point, which is
Speaker 2: tennis has the decency to just conform to the NFL schedule.
Speaker 2: It's a beautiful thing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, what's you know, it's a disaster waiting
Speaker 3: to wait until the Super bowls over, and then deciding
Speaker 3: I'm going to bet college basketball, right, good luck? Good
Speaker 3: luck with that, uh yeah, or.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna get into the NBA.
Speaker 3: Now what is what's going on in the NBA or
Speaker 3: there at the All Star break? Good luck? Like you know,
Speaker 3: everything's been solved in the bat in basketball by the
Speaker 3: time you get done with the playoffs. Tennis you can
Speaker 3: solve stuff. And I guess a couple of kind of
Speaker 3: final tips here. Watch the weather, keep an eye on
Speaker 3: the order of play, keep an eye on players who
Speaker 3: spend five hours on the court in the heat, yes,
Speaker 3: really four four plus hours on the court in the
Speaker 3: heat on the men's side, if they're playing in the
Speaker 3: middle of the day down there, like there is a
Speaker 3: like this is this should be elementary geome, elementary geography.
Speaker 3: This is in the Southern Hemisphere. And the sun in
Speaker 3: Melbourne in the month of January is literally like being
Speaker 3: under a magnifying glass. If you are playing a four
Speaker 3: hour match in the sun, which is what any any
Speaker 3: of the courts that aren't covered is going to be,
Speaker 3: you are drawing dead in your next match. And so
Speaker 3: these are kind of the small sort of soft wrinkles
Speaker 3: you got to look out for. Like a lot of
Speaker 3: these players took a bunch of time off at the
Speaker 3: end of last season, went on vacation. They're literally just
Speaker 3: like like you and I, kind of getting back to work.
Speaker 3: Holidays are over, let's let's get her, let's get her
Speaker 3: get in shape. And you can pick that suff up
Speaker 3: by eye if you're watching. So there's a lot of
Speaker 3: fun wrinkles and fun ways to win match by match
Speaker 3: at the Australian Open that don't exist in the other Slams.
Speaker 1: In my opinion, we.
Speaker 2: Should leave it there, But I feel like I have
Speaker 2: to say two words before we leave. Nick Curios, is
Speaker 2: he even playing?
Speaker 3: I think it feels like he has some weird sponsorship
Speaker 3: thing or something. It feels like this is a big gimmick.
Speaker 2: Is he out feel I don't know. To the last
Speaker 2: article I saw and he got reaggravated. I don't know
Speaker 2: if he's playing it. I don't yeah, A match or two,
Speaker 2: like he's not serious.
Speaker 3: Right, I mean, I would pick my official prediction. He
Speaker 3: gets a some sort of weird center court match against
Speaker 3: the player he should beat based on his serve and
Speaker 3: it goes five sets, and the crowd loves it and
Speaker 3: it's the most entertaining match of the first week and
Speaker 3: he probably wins. And then with Druss that's kind of
Speaker 3: a yeah, that's kind of the good guess.
Speaker 2: But I'm glad you included the point, the point about
Speaker 2: cumulative effect of for a long time. It's as big
Speaker 2: as anything.
Speaker 3: Sinner won this tournament last year because Medvedev spent twenty
Speaker 3: hours on court. I will go to my grave Cinner
Speaker 3: was going to lose that match the way Medvedev was
Speaker 3: playing unless big. But Medvedev ran out of gas. Like
Speaker 3: that was a five set win for Center, because Medvedev
Speaker 3: was like, but I think he played four or I
Speaker 3: think he played four or five setters into that one
Speaker 3: and then just completely hit the wall after winning the
Speaker 3: first two sets, and you could see his strategy was like, look, man,
Speaker 3: I got to leave it all in court. I just
Speaker 3: I got to break him early. I got to get
Speaker 3: him to quit. I'm not making this. I can't I
Speaker 3: can't win a long battle here. I'm just I'm out
Speaker 3: of gas. And that was I had a lot of
Speaker 3: Center into that tournament, and I had an absolute like
Speaker 3: shove once you know, once the tide turned in that
Speaker 3: third set, it was like it's over, Like he can't,
Speaker 3: he can't get one, he can't, there's nothing he can
Speaker 3: do to preserve for a fifth. Here it's over, and
Speaker 3: that's kind of the way I played out.
Speaker 2: So last last thing if Ega versus Naiomi, and I
Speaker 2: agree with you, Fiatek versus Osaka friendch Open was the
Speaker 2: best match on the women's side of the entire calendar.
Speaker 3: You're completely agree.
Speaker 2: What was it on the men's side because I cannot
Speaker 2: come up.
Speaker 3: It was a painful one for me for a couple
Speaker 3: of reasons. It was Djokovic gold medal over Alcress seven
Speaker 3: six seven six. That was I think that was his goodbye.
Speaker 2: That was it. That was the last thing he needed
Speaker 2: to do for his career. Yeah, yeah, you were heavily
Speaker 2: on on Arlidos there.
Speaker 3: I had a lot of outcrest to win the gold
Speaker 3: and I had I had a lot of Spain to
Speaker 3: get over four and a half gold medals, and they
Speaker 3: ultimately got there. But it took some very very fortuitous
Speaker 3: things to happen to get to five. They they they
Speaker 3: they just got their nose over the line. Alcarez winning
Speaker 3: the gold would have been a lot, a lot more comfortable,
Speaker 3: but but yeah, you know, I.
Speaker 1: Don't like it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was an impressed. That was the most impressed
Speaker 3: I've been with Djoko Rich since he beat Federer at
Speaker 3: the Wimbledon and twenty was that eighteen nineteen Federer's last
Speaker 3: wimbled or was last final?
Speaker 2: Remember that I couldn't tell you eighteen or nineteen. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I agree with you though that that was his last selbum.
Speaker 2: That was the last thing he needed for his career.
Speaker 2: That was the one thing he didn't get. There's his goal.
Speaker 2: Man Drew appreciated, Man, thank you so much at Whale
Speaker 2: Underscore Kapper for Drew on Twitter Deep Dive with Andy Molitor, which,
Speaker 2: as I told you on the radio side, I will
Speaker 2: go more than a few days without somebody saying to me,
Speaker 2: I love those two guys on that show. Really seriously,
Speaker 2: I'm not making it up. They love you guys, you know,
Speaker 2: banter between each other.
Speaker 3: We got to have you on that off season. You've
Speaker 3: never been a guest on the on the opsiting pods.
Speaker 3: We really slacking the off season now in terms of
Speaker 3: really trying to get good guests. But we got to
Speaker 3: get you on these day on these days, talk a
Speaker 3: little French Ship and talk about Indian Wells. Yeah, do it?
Speaker 2: Are you going to Indian Wells this year? Are you
Speaker 2: going this year?
Speaker 3: I'm going to be out there then. I haven't got
Speaker 3: tickets yet. I haven't for sure secured it, but I
Speaker 3: really hope it works out.
Speaker 2: I went, I went two years ago. Remind me not
Speaker 2: to drive again through the desert.
Speaker 3: Ooh, it's bad. That's a long long.
Speaker 2: There is a there is a oh, dude, there's a
Speaker 2: moment there where you're like, if something happens to my car,
Speaker 2: I mean, you know what.
Speaker 3: Else there's a there's also a thirty five minutes southwest
Speaker 3: flight from Las Vegas to Palm Springs.
Speaker 2: Yeah, idiot, idiot didn't do that last time. I'm like,
Speaker 2: this is gonna be awesome. I'm gonna drive. It's so great, jackass,
Speaker 2: Thank you, Drew, appreciated man. Good luck with all of
Speaker 2: our bets, round by round.
Speaker 3: Appreciate it man, of course, say take care.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening everybody. We'll do the post draw Friday morning.
Speaker 2: Was that coke? Thanks for listening?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 2: So now after Drew was kind enough to come on
Speaker 2: the podcast, do the pre draw Australian Open with us
Speaker 2: now the draw has come out, actually came out thirty
Speaker 2: six hours ago, right after Drew Dinsik and I did
Speaker 2: the pre draw portion of this podcast. So now we
Speaker 2: get to react and bet. Some of us already have
Speaker 2: our bets with the draw out there now. So thirty
Speaker 2: six hours later, Zach Cohen joining me to talk the
Speaker 2: Australian Open draw, Zat Cohen on betting on X on Twitter.
Speaker 2: Let me read, let me tweet out the live link
Speaker 2: because I didn't remember to do when Drew was on. Zach,
Speaker 2: how you doing, man.
Speaker 1: I'm doing well. I'm really excited for this tournament. I
Speaker 1: feel like, you know, the tennis offseason is really short,
Speaker 1: but I feel like I did get recharged a little
Speaker 1: bit and ready to go.
Speaker 2: I felt like I knew, well, I had other things
Speaker 2: going on, but I felt like I need at that offseason.
Speaker 1: You know, yeah, I could have used another two weeks,
Speaker 1: but once I saw the quality of play at the
Speaker 1: United Cup and stuff, I was pretty much pulled right
Speaker 1: back in.
Speaker 2: The Thing that got me was the end of season finals.
Speaker 2: The WTA finals to me were weird this past year.
Speaker 2: So I think that sort of threw me off where
Speaker 2: I was like, wh isn't this supposed to be outdoors?
Speaker 2: And then there was like nobody in the arena watching it,
Speaker 2: So I think that was set. That was set. Zach,
Speaker 2: by the way, all his stuff at vson dot com,
Speaker 2: not just tennis, but every sport that he does, college football,
Speaker 2: pro football, you name it, Zach is talking about it.
Speaker 2: But Zach is a tennis guy. Zach works at the
Speaker 2: Tennis Channel. Tell everybody what you do at Tennis Channel,
Speaker 2: because you do number of things.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So before coming to Vison, I used to work
Speaker 1: for a company called ten ten Media, which was a
Speaker 1: content creation company and one of the partners that we
Speaker 1: had was Tennis dot Com. So I was effectively serving
Speaker 1: as the senior editor there for a few years under
Speaker 1: a guy named Ed mcgrogan who worked with me at
Speaker 1: the company. Now Ed is full time with the Tennis Channel,
Speaker 1: as you know, the senior managing editor there, and they
Speaker 1: needed somebody to come in and help them with betting.
Speaker 1: He reached out to me. So now I'm helping them
Speaker 1: just in a freelance capacity, like a story a day
Speaker 1: during big tournaments. But I do do a live show
Speaker 1: with them that will be on later, you know, at
Speaker 1: four pm Eastern and yeah, just do a lot of
Speaker 1: betting stuff for them, but I will be handling everything
Speaker 1: internally with vs in and I do give out more
Speaker 1: picks or Vson than I do there love it.
Speaker 2: Okay, so you want to start men's or women's? Would
Speaker 2: you pick your poison? What do you want here?
Speaker 1: Let's start with I thought there was a clearer picture
Speaker 1: with the women's.
Speaker 2: Okay, let's start with women. I was going to say
Speaker 2: that since we started Ladies with Drew also, So this
Speaker 2: comes out and I'll tell you what I've been saying
Speaker 2: on the radio side, and you tell me how much
Speaker 2: you agree or disagree, which is this really worked out
Speaker 2: for EGA more than any of.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I wrote it. I wrote it at vson
Speaker 1: dot com. I had no interest in being on EGA
Speaker 1: in this tournament, and then I saw the way the
Speaker 1: draw shook out, and it's just like you got to
Speaker 1: put someone in front of her, the cold beater, and
Speaker 1: I don't think that there's anybody that can do it
Speaker 1: until the semis. So I looked at it. I did
Speaker 1: want to kind of stay off early in the season.
Speaker 1: But even with you know, struggles on you know, hard courts,
Speaker 1: faster hard courts, she still had the best record on
Speaker 1: hard courts last year any player in the WTA Tour.
Speaker 1: She's won a lot of tournaments on this surface. I
Speaker 1: know that the major stuff has not been great since
Speaker 1: the twenty twenty two US Open, and she has not
Speaker 1: been great at the Australian Open. But she's still a
Speaker 1: great player, and you have to Yeah, like I said,
Speaker 1: you have to put someone in front of her the computer.
Speaker 1: I don't think that there are many players.
Speaker 2: So did so let me just sort of explain that
Speaker 2: to folks. So basically, when the draw comes out, there's
Speaker 2: a random nature to it and what ends up. What
Speaker 2: ended up happening, at least by my numbers, is out
Speaker 2: of the top ten hardcore data players on the lady
Speaker 2: side globally, Ega ended up Q four, Rebakana ended up
Speaker 2: Q three. The other eight are all on the top
Speaker 2: half of the drum. And so what does that mean
Speaker 2: for Ega? It means you know what's your potential path
Speaker 2: Siniyakova volley nets, then it's Alexandrova, rod O'Connor or and
Speaker 2: it's a Mova in round three. Then it's like any
Speaker 2: number of kalan Skaya, Azarenka or Cheva in round four,
Speaker 2: I'm just making up names at this point, right to
Speaker 2: just add some interest.
Speaker 1: It's not even her.
Speaker 2: Yeah, who just pulled out?
Speaker 1: Barbara Krasikova.
Speaker 2: Is that you said Jacoba pulled out? That's right. Quarterfinal
Speaker 2: would be Navarro, Cassakina, Jabor put and Seva. So you're right,
Speaker 2: like until the Semis, which would be Rebakkina or Pulini
Speaker 2: or Keys or Collins or someone like that. Right, It's
Speaker 2: just she couldn't have gotten more favorable and so did you?
Speaker 2: Now did you bet her her quarter price? Is that
Speaker 2: what you ended up doing?
Speaker 1: So I took IgA plus one oh five to win
Speaker 1: the quarter and I put two units on that, but
Speaker 1: I also did put Ega plus four eighty to win
Speaker 1: the tournament, and that kind of goes with the fact
Speaker 1: that I have Rebecca ten to one to win the tournament.
Speaker 1: And I would just love to get to a situation
Speaker 1: where I have both semifinalists and yeah, which everyone wins wins,
Speaker 1: and you know, I have a good number in the final.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know that I think either of
Speaker 1: them will beat Sabalinka on hardcourt, but yeah, I feel
Speaker 1: really good about one of the two getting there.
Speaker 2: I have Ega plus a five point fifty and five
Speaker 2: to one to win it all. The five to one
Speaker 2: was post draw, which I was shocked that it was
Speaker 2: still out there, and I am. I have not made
Speaker 2: the eagle quarter bet too, but I absolutely will be
Speaker 2: making that. I think there's an even money that's still available,
Speaker 2: so I will make that bet. I'm with you there
Speaker 2: beyond that. On the lady side, did you make any
Speaker 2: other quarter or outrights?
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I have Rebecca to ten to one. I
Speaker 1: took that before the draw. I just kind of saw
Speaker 1: her floating out there before the tournament. I didn't really
Speaker 1: understand it. I do think that at the very worst,
Speaker 1: he's the third best hardcore player in the world, you know,
Speaker 1: on quicker courts especially, just a really really good server
Speaker 1: in a big, powerful game. And there's a lot of
Speaker 1: weird stuff going on with her coaching team. That's the
Speaker 1: only thing I'm really nervous about is you know, she
Speaker 1: brought it on gor Ivanissovich, Novak Djokovic's old coach, got
Speaker 1: rid of her old coach, who was suspended by the WTA,
Speaker 1: but then last week announced that he's going to be
Speaker 1: joining the team in some capacity. Even Nissovich is not
Speaker 1: happy about it. I feel like nobody is happy about
Speaker 1: it except for her, So I'm a little bit nervous
Speaker 1: about that kind of circus. But just in terms of draw,
Speaker 1: I thought that she made out just as well as
Speaker 1: Ega did. Maybe a matchup with Madison Keys that I'm
Speaker 1: worried about a little bit early in the tournament, just
Speaker 1: because when Keys is healthy, I think She's capable of
Speaker 1: winning any quick court tournament. So we've seen her play
Speaker 1: really well this week in the tune up events. A
Speaker 1: little bit nervous about that potential matchup, but I do
Speaker 1: feel really good about Rebakna facing Ego in the seventies.
Speaker 2: I Drew and I talked about this a little too
Speaker 2: in the pre draw, that thing with Rebakna and this
Speaker 2: sort of drifts off into non tennis stuff, right, because
Speaker 2: we all agree that Rebakkan is one of the best
Speaker 2: players in the world, But that, like off court coaching
Speaker 2: stuff is like bleeds into a creepy territory where it's
Speaker 2: sort of like this girl okay, like no one can
Speaker 2: do anything about it, but it's like, uh, someone needs
Speaker 2: someone might need to help her. Is this it feels
Speaker 2: like this brainwashed I think was Drew's where I think
Speaker 2: is the right word, which is it feels like a
Speaker 2: brainwashing situation where you're like I and I don't know
Speaker 2: if I can getting back to the benning, and you
Speaker 2: alluded to it. It prevents me from betting, it really does,
Speaker 2: because I'm like, I have no idea when she'll just
Speaker 2: go on the fritz.
Speaker 1: It's it scares me. What makes me feel a little
Speaker 1: bit better is that she just has played the last
Speaker 1: few weeks, she has looked a little bit like lighter emotionally,
Speaker 1: and maybe that's because he's not there. I do think
Speaker 1: Evenissovitch is a really good coach, but you are right,
Speaker 1: it does seem, you know, borderline creepy. Without speculating too much,
Speaker 1: Hopefully she's able to kind of shrug that off and
Speaker 1: just know, you know, pulling out of tournaments with weird
Speaker 1: illnesses and injuries, and if she plays, she's got a
Speaker 1: really good shot here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, what what you're referring to is she did that
Speaker 2: multiple times last year, right, multiple times. It was often
Speaker 2: a stomach ailment, as I recall, but that wasn't the
Speaker 2: only thing, and it was like four different tournaments. But
Speaker 2: you're right, when she played through her results were great.
Speaker 2: She won a few tournaments, but then the rest of
Speaker 2: the time she was just strangely pulling out the other
Speaker 2: bets that I have that I made and I don't
Speaker 2: usually I'm one of these guys that I'm like, I'm
Speaker 2: betting on Ega. I only bet. I don't have any
Speaker 2: of that. I'm not doing this golf thing where they
Speaker 2: have like twenty outs, but this one I did. I predraw.
Speaker 2: I bet Mira Andreva and Carolina Mohova both at twenty
Speaker 2: five to one. They're on the tough side of that
Speaker 2: of the bracket, but I and I think Andreva's less
Speaker 2: of a shot. She might be a little too early,
Speaker 2: but like Mohova, I genuinely has a shot here.
Speaker 1: I took some heat on this for Twitter. On Twitter
Speaker 1: like three days ago, I said that I think Mahova
Speaker 1: is like right on that level of Rebakna and Coco,
Speaker 1: and I think that maybe Coco played her way out
Speaker 1: of that with the dominant United Cup run after you know,
Speaker 1: the WTA finals. I think that she has looked a
Speaker 1: lot better from the forehand side of the serving aspect,
Speaker 1: like maybe she's now on that level of Ega and Sabolenka.
Speaker 1: But I do think Mokhova is just right there with
Speaker 1: the top tier players, so I would agree with you,
Speaker 1: like I think she's going to win a major at
Speaker 1: some point very soon. She just has just a complete
Speaker 1: game and it's just beautiful to watch, honestly. Like you,
Speaker 1: there's Federer esque, you know, on the WTA side, and
Speaker 1: I do think it's only a matter of time before
Speaker 1: she wins one. We saw her kind of go toe
Speaker 1: to toe with Ega at Roland Garros, which no one
Speaker 1: really does. So I feel pretty good about Moukhova Andreva.
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna happen soon as well. It's just
Speaker 1: we got to get her out of Sabolenka's portion of
Speaker 1: the draw because I think she could beat some of
Speaker 1: the weaker players in terms of power. I think that
Speaker 1: Saboleanka just out muscles her and it's just a physical
Speaker 1: matchup that she's gonna have trouble overcoming until she just
Speaker 1: gets a lot bigger.
Speaker 2: Who gave you a crap for that take, By the way,
Speaker 2: I don't think that's a controversial take, just random.
Speaker 1: It's kind of I guess it was putting her on
Speaker 1: Coco's level, and Coco has a head to head edge there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but Coco's got to serve problem still, Yeah, is
Speaker 2: there any other Is there any other player on the
Speaker 2: lady side that that triggered a bet or that you
Speaker 2: think at least is worth mentioning. I do like your
Speaker 2: thinking about Mattie Keys. I mentioned that with Drew also,
Speaker 2: where it's like you just never know with her, right,
Speaker 2: you never know if it's a plus game Mattie Keys,
Speaker 2: it could be something.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think a few of us when we were
Speaker 1: talking Wimbledon last year, thought she was going to win
Speaker 1: that tournament and she ended up getting injured in that
Speaker 1: Pallini match where she was up of double break I
Speaker 1: think in the third set and maybe in the second
Speaker 1: set too, and I just kind of her body failed her.
Speaker 1: But I do think the Keys is capable of mickey
Speaker 1: a run. I think if anybody were to beat Rebakkina
Speaker 1: kind of early in the tournament, it would be her.
Speaker 1: I did circle Katie Bolter just I I wonder if
Speaker 1: she's going to play off the demon or the crowd presence.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to root for her like she's
Speaker 1: an Australian because they are, you know, engaged now, and
Speaker 1: I think that she's a very talented player in a
Speaker 1: portion of the draw that I do think is somewhat open.
Speaker 1: I'm not really sold on Jasmine Palini. I think that
Speaker 1: what she did last season was impressive, but I do
Speaker 1: think that, you know, there's a huge difference between going
Speaker 1: into every tournament as an underdog and then now being
Speaker 1: expected to go out and make quarterfinal runs, you know,
Speaker 1: tournament in and tournament out. I think that she's a
Speaker 1: prime upset candidate. And yeah, I think that Bolter has
Speaker 1: got a shot there.
Speaker 2: I have Bolter number fifteen, so like, not really far that,
Speaker 2: not really that far down right, in terms of a
Speaker 2: one year, six month serve percentage return percentage winner data,
Speaker 2: she's fifteenth. I mean that's something to sneeze about, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, she's a really talented player. She kind of got
Speaker 1: a really nice all round game, and she's another player that, like,
Speaker 1: I think she'll be top ten very in near future.
Speaker 1: So it wouldn't shock me if players break out here.
Speaker 1: I do think the Australian Open is a tournament where
Speaker 1: players do tend to break out. It's just a new season,
Speaker 1: a lot of weirdness. I think that, you know, I
Speaker 1: last year that was where I called the center shot
Speaker 1: to win the Major. I thought that he would kind
Speaker 1: of surprise everybody and just you know, take the field
Speaker 1: by storm. I think this is a tournament where you
Speaker 1: can make a name for yourself pretty quickly.
Speaker 2: We were just talking about this about the football game
Speaker 2: between the Rams and the Vikings. How like it's going
Speaker 2: to be hard to quantify how the Rams and to
Speaker 2: some degree the Chargers players right will be affected by
Speaker 2: the wildfires in southern California and they're playing a football game.
Speaker 2: It's like, you know, when you're handicapping, and I get it. Obviously,
Speaker 2: the real, real world ramifications of those things are much
Speaker 2: more important than handicapping. But it's obviously the corner of
Speaker 2: the world from where we come and so you try
Speaker 2: to you try to solve the puzzle of all of this.
Speaker 2: Just does speaking of non quantifiable things, do you give
Speaker 2: a boost to Australian players at the Austria Alien Open,
Speaker 2: Like you know, if you're I don't know if you're
Speaker 2: on the fence about a in past years about a
Speaker 2: curios but let's say this year about a demonour on
Speaker 2: the men's side, or you just mentioned Katie Bolter on
Speaker 2: the lady side. Does it give you a little bump
Speaker 2: on them.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I should mention Bolter's not Australian, but I just
Speaker 1: think that she's going to get an Australian bump. But
Speaker 1: I do I think, especially with the Australians, it's I
Speaker 1: think it's kind of tournament by tournament. I think the
Speaker 1: French players struggle at Roland Garros because there's just an
Speaker 1: insane amount of pressure on them, And in the past
Speaker 1: I felt the same way about Americans at the US Open,
Speaker 1: although over the last few years they've had a huge
Speaker 1: boost from the crowd. But I do think that most
Speaker 1: of the Australian players do really get a nice bump
Speaker 1: from the crowd. I think Demonor played really well last
Speaker 1: year up until that tough loss against rube Lev, Like
Speaker 1: I thought you had a real shot of continuing that run. Kergios, Cocanakis,
Speaker 1: these are guys that like have spoken glowingly about loving playing,
Speaker 1: you know, on the smaller courts with those rowdy atmospheres.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I should be clear about Bolter. She's engaged at Demoneur.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, Australian, but but yeah bye law.
Speaker 2: Soon, bye by law soon.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Okay, so I think we have we covered it on
Speaker 2: the lady's side, because I think that's it's it's interesting
Speaker 2: to me. It's more interesting than the men's side, right
Speaker 2: because in terms of it out right, I think right
Speaker 2: because the men's side, you know, I was saying there's
Speaker 2: value on Demoneur and Demitrov by raw numbers, but it's
Speaker 2: almost when I say the word value. The difference between
Speaker 2: value on the lady side and the men's side, to
Speaker 2: me is on the lady's side when I say it
Speaker 2: like they could legitimately, that translates legitimately to Q quarter
Speaker 2: wins and to outright wins. On the men's side, when
Speaker 2: I say like there's value on Demonor and Dimitrov, it's
Speaker 2: kind of performative right where I'm just like, okay, like
Speaker 2: technically there's value, But do I really expect those guys
Speaker 2: to beat alcaoraz or Center when it comes down to it.
Speaker 2: I don't you kind of feel that way? I do.
Speaker 1: Like when I write up, you know, sleeper columns and
Speaker 1: stuff like that for Tennis Channel, I'm usually prefacing it
Speaker 1: by saying these guys are sleepers, but I'm really only
Speaker 1: looking for them to get to a certain point of
Speaker 1: the tournament so I can hedge. There's not really something
Speaker 1: where I'm looking for them to actually win. It's really
Speaker 1: just not gonna happen. I think that maybe, like we'll
Speaker 1: see Wimbledon at some point, like a big server goes
Speaker 1: on and wins there, But I don't really see there
Speaker 1: they're being that much opportunity for kind of tier two,
Speaker 1: tier three players on the men's side, there is opportunity
Speaker 1: for that on the women's side. I guess we should mention,
Speaker 1: like I do think Sabriolanca is gonna win the tournament.
Speaker 1: I just didn't want to play it at the number.
Speaker 1: This is just the tournament where it almost feels like
Speaker 1: a home crowd for her. She's very comfortable here. The
Speaker 1: crowd absolutely loves her. It's not like the US Open,
Speaker 1: where they're rooting for all the Americans and kind of
Speaker 1: getting in her head a little bit. The faster conditions
Speaker 1: also makes it really tough to beat a player with
Speaker 1: her type of power, and I think she's just gotten
Speaker 1: so much better as a server, especially with that second serve.
Speaker 1: And I also just I thought her drop shot was
Speaker 1: making a lot of progress towards the end of last year.
Speaker 1: So it's not going to be all power power power
Speaker 1: with Sabolanca anymore. I think she's mixing in some variety
Speaker 1: and I just think she's going to be even tougher
Speaker 1: to beat on a faster surface moving forward.
Speaker 2: And I should make clear that with my quarter bets
Speaker 2: that I'm going to add on the lady's side, they
Speaker 2: are they are, They're same as the outrights, but I'm
Speaker 2: not I'm not making a quarter bet on Andreva. I
Speaker 2: will make a quarter bet on Tech and on Mohova
Speaker 2: as well. Hope it was about plus four fifty five
Speaker 2: to one somewhere in there in that range for her.
Speaker 1: That's interesting.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that that's a pretty good price, man, I think. Yeah,
Speaker 2: the the before we get to get to the men's side,
Speaker 2: I just want to ask about Tennis Channel because I
Speaker 2: don't know who's curious about this, but I certainly am.
Speaker 2: What is the what is the gambling atmosphere at this point?
Speaker 2: Like I know there was a moment there where they're like,
Speaker 2: I know, like on broadcast they still do a good
Speaker 2: job of sort of like throwing up in match numbers
Speaker 2: after the first set. Grett Hayter's pretty good about understanding
Speaker 2: what that means, you know, implied probability of that kind
Speaker 2: of stuff. But like dedicated shows, where does that stand?
Speaker 1: The dedicated shows live, you know where we're living right now,
Speaker 1: they're like on Twitter, YouTube, nothing on the main channel yet.
Speaker 1: I don't know if there's any plans to do that
Speaker 1: in the future. Slowly leaning into it is kind of
Speaker 1: the way that I would put it. I think that
Speaker 1: they're you know, they're traditionally covering just tennis at a
Speaker 1: major aspect, and I think that most people that are
Speaker 1: watching Tennis Channel don't want to hear about the gambling,
Speaker 1: but there obviously is a small sector of people that do.
Speaker 1: And you know, the Tennis Bets Live show that I
Speaker 1: was doing with them last year that we're doing this
Speaker 1: year was growing in the second half of last season,
Speaker 1: So I think that there are a lot of people
Speaker 1: that are very interested. But I'd say it's kind of
Speaker 1: a dipping the toes in the pool situation.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I feel like that sentiment that you just mentioned though,
Speaker 2: is thrue, which is we have to remember at least
Speaker 2: I have to remember, right because it's in our DNA
Speaker 2: that oh, we're betting all these sports. But like most
Speaker 2: of those folks, not only do they not care, there
Speaker 2: is a segment that actually dislikes it immensely still, right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I get I get a lot of comments on
Speaker 1: the Tennis Channel articles that are like this is poison.
Speaker 1: Why are you poisoning my feed with this? And I
Speaker 1: think that a lot of the Tennis you know, viewing
Speaker 1: audience is Indian Wells type of people where you go
Speaker 1: to Indian Wells and the average age of the people
Speaker 1: is like seventy.
Speaker 2: I've been to Indian Wells and I can attest to that.
Speaker 2: It is like, bring, you're bringing the average age down.
Speaker 1: You have adeo that might have been shot there, the
Speaker 1: one that Kelly posted on a numbers game. You might
Speaker 1: have shot that there.
Speaker 2: Have you ever been to Indian Welles? By the way,
Speaker 2: it's it's so I went there.
Speaker 1: I want to say it was four years now. It
Speaker 1: was gorgeous. It was incredible, gorgeous.
Speaker 2: Absolutely. Okay, to the men's side, I feel like we
Speaker 2: have a we have a sympatico bomb here that we
Speaker 2: both bet and I maybe we start there. However you
Speaker 2: want to start on the men's side.
Speaker 1: We can start there. I mean, people are going to
Speaker 1: look at it and think we're crazy. So that's kind
Speaker 1: of why it's fun to start with it, but I
Speaker 1: don't think we're great both, We're not crazy. I actually
Speaker 1: did it in a different way. I took jaw off
Speaker 1: on Seka and Andre rube Lev to win quarter two,
Speaker 1: and they were playing in the first round. He was
Speaker 1: one of those it's one of those bets immediately. But
Speaker 1: I do think that the draw opens up very nicely
Speaker 1: for both of them once it happens. And Fonseka is
Speaker 1: the one that you might look at that and say,
Speaker 1: who the heck is this guy. He's an eighteen year
Speaker 1: old that just won the next Gen ATP Finals, became
Speaker 1: the third eighteen year old to do that in history,
Speaker 1: joining Carlos Acaaz and Yonick Center. This is a guy
Speaker 1: that absolutely dominated Challengers last year. Yeah, it's a nice list.
Speaker 1: He dominated Challengers last year, played really well on the
Speaker 1: ATP Tour, and if you watch him, I think the
Speaker 1: elevator pitch for him is like if you watched him
Speaker 1: from the top row of Arthur Ash it looks like
Speaker 1: Janick Sinner playing in Egos Fiatak's clothing. He's an on
Speaker 1: cloud He's an on cloud guy. He's wearing a goofy outfit,
Speaker 1: but he plays exactly like Center.
Speaker 2: I will give you. So you and I came to
Speaker 2: this separately in different ways. By the way, I bet
Speaker 2: on Seka to win Q two because I'm not again outrights.
Speaker 2: You know, look at center at el again, it's performative,
Speaker 2: and I raise my hand as saying I can say
Speaker 2: there's value on someone else, but it feels performative, even
Speaker 2: though I did sprinkle a little on Demonor and de
Speaker 2: Metrov because it's you know, somehow I can resist the
Speaker 2: fact that I had to put something on it. But
Speaker 2: Fonseeka is And again, if you're just doing this by
Speaker 2: the old and I shout out our buddy Dan Weston,
Speaker 2: who's to me is the guru of all of this.
Speaker 2: With tennis data, you look at Fonseka's number and it's
Speaker 2: funny you bring up EGA because part of the reason
Speaker 2: that I was ahead of the EGA curve before she
Speaker 2: joined the main tour is we had access to her
Speaker 2: numbers of the off the main tour right before she
Speaker 2: elevated to the main tour, and so you could see
Speaker 2: the gaudiness of those numbers and you're like, oh wow,
Speaker 2: Like even if you step up competition, right, that's always
Speaker 2: the worry in tennis handicapping he's like, Okay, those are
Speaker 2: numbers or his numbers. But now even within a tournament,
Speaker 2: you're like, okay, here's beating these players. But now they
Speaker 2: got to play this player, so it's a step up
Speaker 2: in competition. So how much does that to really translate?
Speaker 2: But if it's at a certain level, it tends to translate.
Speaker 2: And Fonseka's numbers are through the fucking roof, I may be,
Speaker 2: so they are really unbelievably hot, to the point where
Speaker 2: you're like, okay, this is on the radar, right, And
Speaker 2: I got to tell you something. This is a player
Speaker 2: that I've bet on before Visa dot Com slash picks
Speaker 2: for all of my picks and Zach's picks for VSA
Speaker 2: subscribers all year throughout the tennis calendar on all surfaces.
Speaker 2: I've bet on him before, and I have to tell you,
Speaker 2: these numbers kind of snuck up like this wasn't the case,
Speaker 2: and now I'm looking at him like where did this
Speaker 2: come from? But they are they're out of control where
Speaker 2: if you know, And it's a small sample size on
Speaker 2: the main tour still, but if you are to buy
Speaker 2: into them, you should absolutely be making a bet on him.
Speaker 2: Here I think and so I did at fourteen to
Speaker 2: one in a to the quarter. Let me be clear,
Speaker 2: for the quarter in a quarter that is, I mean,
Speaker 2: let's be honest, it's Fritz Medvedev and others. Right, you
Speaker 2: just mentioned Rubelev, but there's others. There's Mapechi, Paracard and
Speaker 2: Mofie and Poprin who's speaking of Australians that kind of thing.
Speaker 2: Shelton is in there as well. But it is the
Speaker 2: Fritz Medvedev quarter, which is why I'm making the bet, right,
Speaker 2: It's not the Alcoraz or the Ciner.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I identified this on Visa dot com as well.
Speaker 1: I did. I did a full draw breakdown and I
Speaker 1: noted this is probably the quarter with the most opportunity.
Speaker 1: I think the Medvedev is somewhat cooked. I don't want
Speaker 1: to rule him out completely, but when he was, you know,
Speaker 1: the best version of himself, he was a very very
Speaker 1: good server. That is gone. I mean, his whole percentage
Speaker 1: is plummeted from like eighty seven percent down to eighty percent.
Speaker 1: He's no longer winning those you know, service games easily.
Speaker 1: That means that he has to outgrind his opponents every
Speaker 1: single match at some point. That catches up to you
Speaker 1: physically this tournament. I believe he did not play in
Speaker 1: any tune up events, so I'm kind of curious to
Speaker 1: see if he's even even able to do that. He
Speaker 1: has a very easy, he like, very early draw, but
Speaker 1: once he plays a really good player, I really worry
Speaker 1: about him being able to just win his service games
Speaker 1: easily and just out mustle them in any way. He
Speaker 1: has to be able to win points against a guy
Speaker 1: like von Seka who can cover the court at really
Speaker 1: really high level. So I kind of am no longer
Speaker 1: there with Medvedev and Fritz. It wouldn't shock me if
Speaker 1: he made the semis again. I do think Fritz is
Speaker 1: probably the fourth or fifth best player on tour now,
Speaker 1: but having to go through potentially GMP or Shelton, just
Speaker 1: all these big, big servers, those are matches that are
Speaker 1: kind of like fifty to fifty and just seeing him
Speaker 1: coming out on all of them is a little bit
Speaker 1: unlikely to me. So I thought this was a really
Speaker 1: good opportunity for rube Lev to either make his first
Speaker 1: semi or fon Sekah to break out, And I did
Speaker 1: want to kind of pump the brakes on Fuen Seika
Speaker 1: before the tournament, But when I saw the draw, I
Speaker 1: was like, if he does get by this match, there's
Speaker 1: really no one stopping him until Medvedev. And I do
Speaker 1: think he could beat Medvedev.
Speaker 2: Right now, and people should understand that if he loses
Speaker 2: in the first round, it's like not a shocker either
Speaker 2: because it is rube Lev. No, but if he gets
Speaker 2: by that, oh boy, by the way, with Rubelev him
Speaker 2: like having this quarter final ceiling thing or not all.
Speaker 1: I think it's not a thing. I don't believe in
Speaker 1: like that type of stuff really at all. I just
Speaker 1: kind of think it's you give yourself enough shots at
Speaker 1: the back, you know at it, you're just going to
Speaker 1: break through eventually. Like he's so freaking talented that I
Speaker 1: would That's why I kind of think like I would
Speaker 1: like to see him play Medvedev because I think he
Speaker 1: would whoop him. Right now. I don't think Medvedev can
Speaker 1: stay with him right now, and I kind of would
Speaker 1: like to see him break through and get to the
Speaker 1: semifinals instead of breaking his knee and against van Seka
Speaker 1: and cutting himself by hitting his racket into it. That's
Speaker 1: going to be really hard to watch. If he goes
Speaker 1: down early, but.
Speaker 2: At least he's a very calm player when things go wrong.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he can handle the first round loss to an
Speaker 1: eighteen year old as well as anyone.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, it'd be great.
Speaker 1: Sorry before we move off on. It's like there was
Speaker 1: there was the leap last year and then there's been
Speaker 1: this really weird mini leap in between the end of
Speaker 1: last season and the start of this season where he
Speaker 1: went to Camberra for a challenger beat a bunch of
Speaker 1: you know ATP like names like Harold Meyo, Jacob Fairnley,
Speaker 1: Ethan Quinn, didn't lose a set in five matches there.
Speaker 1: Then he went to the qualifying and just beat up
Speaker 1: on everyone, including guys that he was competing with at
Speaker 1: the challenger level, you know, all of last season. Like
Speaker 1: there has now been a leap where this is a
Speaker 1: guy that is a top fifty ATP player at the
Speaker 1: very least, and it's just a matter of time before
Speaker 1: he breaks into the top twenty. It is hard to
Speaker 1: do it, but I do think there's a real shot
Speaker 1: he does it in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: What other men's side thoughts do you have after the
Speaker 2: draw has come out? I mean, does this.
Speaker 1: Joke.
Speaker 2: Oh oh, I remember actually my headline in which I
Speaker 2: think was yours two, which is this is the first
Speaker 2: thing I said. I said it to Kelly on the
Speaker 2: radio side, which was, you know, if you've watched tennis
Speaker 2: for as many years as we have in bed on
Speaker 2: it just the fact that Joker is a seven seed, right,
Speaker 2: is like, oh wow, he's a seven seed. It's thirty
Speaker 2: seven years old. And so he ends up in Alcarez's quarter.
Speaker 2: That's you actually gave him a shot at winning this,
Speaker 2: didn't you? Before the draw.
Speaker 1: I took Djokovic plus four fifty before the draw, thinking
Speaker 1: that he would possibly be able to avoid that type
Speaker 1: of quarterfinal matchup. Honestly, I no longer really like Alkaraz
Speaker 1: or Djokovic. I just think that the task of potentially
Speaker 1: having to beat you know, whichever one it is in
Speaker 1: that match, it's if it's Djokovic beating Alkaraz, Okaras beating Djokovic,
Speaker 1: having to do that and then face Zerev and Center
Speaker 1: in a three match just gauntlet. Seems really difficult to
Speaker 1: imagine someone coming through that. Well, anyone can gates Akrez.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that negates my next question, or maybe it doesn't
Speaker 2: what I was gonna say. Do you think Alcarez is
Speaker 2: a little long here, like there's actual value on him
Speaker 2: to win it all.
Speaker 1: I think that what you're seeing with the price is
Speaker 1: bicking in that is that he you know, has to
Speaker 1: face Djokovic who beat him, you know at the Olympics,
Speaker 1: has to face Zverev, who has had success against him
Speaker 1: in the past, especially on quick core, and then would
Speaker 1: have to go and face Center, possibly very fatigued in
Speaker 1: the final. So it wouldn't shock me. I mean, this
Speaker 1: is probably the best price you're going to get on
Speaker 1: Alkaaz all season. So if you do want to take
Speaker 1: him to win a major, and you want to take
Speaker 1: it along on odds, I would guess this is gonna
Speaker 1: be the longest we're going to see him all year.
Speaker 2: I really feel like this is no like massively amazing comment,
Speaker 2: but I really feel like we're gonna learn a lot
Speaker 2: about Djokovic year, which is, yeah, you know, we just
Speaker 2: saw him get beat by Opelka, and it's if he
Speaker 2: doesn't perform well here, I think everybody's brain will immediately
Speaker 2: toggle to you know, again what Drew and I were
Speaker 2: talking about, which is, well, we said this at the
Speaker 2: Olympics last year, so he got his gold medal. This
Speaker 2: was the last thing he needed in his crown of
Speaker 2: amazing things. Yes, he has twenty four. There is one
Speaker 2: more thing. Obviously, he is twenty four Majors, which, for
Speaker 2: those who don't know, that's the most for a man.
Speaker 2: But Margaret Cord also has twenty four women's singles title,
Speaker 2: So Djokovic in getting twenty five would be top of
Speaker 2: the heap, and in that way anyway, if he cares
Speaker 2: about such a thing, some people do.
Speaker 1: But if he.
Speaker 2: Doesn't perform well here, I think we will quickly go to, oh, yeah,
Speaker 2: that was it. It was the gold medal and now
Speaker 2: it's he begins the Rafa farewell tour.
Speaker 1: If you yeah, I think it would either be in
Speaker 1: Isa has to be here or Wimbledon, And I think
Speaker 1: that's kind of it. I feel like, if it does
Speaker 1: not win one of those two, I think I would
Speaker 1: look at him as kind of on his last legs.
Speaker 1: Having said that, like, he's a really driven guy, and
Speaker 1: I know that he got himself up for that gold medal.
Speaker 1: I kind of think he's going to get himself up
Speaker 1: for the challenge of beating these two guys one last time,
Speaker 1: and I think that bringing in Andy Murray showed that
Speaker 1: he's not complacent. I don't know how that's going to work.
Speaker 1: Murry's never been a coach before, but I do think
Speaker 1: that it shows that he is looking to continue to
Speaker 1: sharpen his game, and man, I did think this was
Speaker 1: a pretty tough draw for him, just in terms of
Speaker 1: early round matchups too. Like Tonamas, mccotch is a player
Speaker 1: that I think could potentially beat him if he's healthy.
Speaker 1: It's a guy that I think has all the firepower
Speaker 1: in the world and has struggled with cramps and stuff
Speaker 1: throughout his career. Once that goes away, I think he'll
Speaker 1: be a mainstay late in tournaments. And I think that
Speaker 1: Yuri Lahychka is another player that if you were to
Speaker 1: face him in I believe he'd be the fourth round.
Speaker 1: Just kind of has the serving power and just overall
Speaker 1: baseline power to give him trouble if he's not fit
Speaker 1: and playing at his best level.
Speaker 2: I have after you get through the obviously center Alcoraz,
Speaker 2: but then through Djokovic, de Minor, Dimitrov, Zverev, Fritz Rubelev.
Speaker 2: I'm just talking about hard courts without gradation on these
Speaker 2: Draper Medvedev, Tommy Paul, the thennet's of the next players
Speaker 2: on tour after like the usual suspects on hard Poprin
Speaker 2: Korda mensik Lahkah.
Speaker 1: Where do you have because that's one of the only
Speaker 1: other futures I made is I took Ojjialia Siem sixteen
Speaker 1: to one to win quarter four.
Speaker 2: I have him a bit down, but he's he's one
Speaker 2: of those players that often defy the numbers. You know.
Speaker 2: It's like there are certain players, like, first of all,
Speaker 2: the big servers always do where I'm like, no matter
Speaker 2: what the numbers say, I'm always like, do I really
Speaker 2: want to bet against Opelka here? Do I really want
Speaker 2: to bet against a patchy Bearrickard? They kind of go
Speaker 2: out the window, right because there the serve numbers are
Speaker 2: so good, but then the return numbers are crap, so
Speaker 2: it kind of kind of doesn't translate. I don't have
Speaker 2: him very high, but he's one of the non serve
Speaker 2: bots that seems to defy those numbers pretty consistent.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like I don't know if it was
Speaker 1: the end of twenty twenty one or twenty twenty two
Speaker 1: now where he was playing out like a top seven level,
Speaker 1: and I do think that there's a chance we end
Speaker 1: up finding that again at some point. And he's another
Speaker 1: one where it's like it's like my rude bloed fon
Speaker 1: Psycho Play, where he can go out in round one.
Speaker 1: He plays Jon Leonard Struf in the first round, and
Speaker 1: that's gonna be a servers battle. That yeah, servers battle,
Speaker 1: that's almost a coin flip. So a little bit nervous
Speaker 1: about that. But if he makes it through there, I
Speaker 1: think he's got the best shot of facing Zvera out
Speaker 1: of anybody else in a potential quarterfinal match.
Speaker 2: I remember a year ago Struf was the kind of
Speaker 2: guy where like, oh my god, I can't believe his
Speaker 2: numbers are so good. Those numbers are muted. Now they're
Speaker 2: back to where we once.
Speaker 1: Were, weirdly thirty four years old. It's like he had
Speaker 1: a late season, late career prime.
Speaker 2: Right, that's right, thirty four wow. Okay about that before
Speaker 2: we get to because I haven't really dove into the
Speaker 2: first round matches yet, but it's there are some great ones,
Speaker 2: like it is startling to see, oh wow, Sloan Stevens
Speaker 2: is playing Sabalane. Not that Sloan Stevens is gonna beat her.
Speaker 2: But Sloane Stephens is playing Sabalanca in the first round.
Speaker 2: Is sort of like, wow, that's amazing. You don't see
Speaker 2: that jo or Yari? Who did? Who did Jari end
Speaker 2: up playing Nicholas?
Speaker 1: It's jar and Center in the first round, like very
Speaker 1: recently a top twenty player.
Speaker 2: It's crazy to me, right, that's a crazy first rounder.
Speaker 2: Before we move on though, the Q four because obviously
Speaker 2: Center is Q one, Alcarez is Q three, have that right? Three? Yes?
Speaker 2: With Djokovic and I mentioned, you know, the fun sake
Speaker 2: play in this is the Medvedev Fritz Q two. Do
Speaker 2: you see anyone challenging Zverev and Q four?
Speaker 1: So that's where the Ajala seem one is. I took
Speaker 1: him sixteen to one. That is one where like I
Speaker 1: said before, I'm hoping he just gets to that match
Speaker 1: and I have a sixteen to one to play with
Speaker 1: if I if I could hedge it, great, If you
Speaker 1: know Zverev gets bounced early, which I don't really see,
Speaker 1: then yeah, then I would feel really good about it.
Speaker 1: But I thought there was some opportunity on the top
Speaker 1: half of that draw of that quarter where I believe
Speaker 1: it was Tommy Paul and Ali Asem, but I think
Speaker 1: it's I think it's a jali as Seem. After seeing
Speaker 1: in Adelaide, I thought that he looked very, very sharp,
Speaker 1: and I think that he has a really good game
Speaker 1: for these conditions. I did note, though, like immediately this
Speaker 1: is a great draw forers Verev, because there's just I
Speaker 1: don't really love him on a really fast, low bouncing court.
Speaker 1: But I don't really see any of these guys challenging
Speaker 1: him unless like Kerrgos gets there and he's somehow looking great.
Speaker 2: Actually every one.
Speaker 1: I have him losing in round one. That's one of
Speaker 1: my few plays I have so far. But if he
Speaker 1: does get there and looks sharp like he's, he might
Speaker 1: be Zverav.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm about to dive in after this, But the
Speaker 2: curios is in that Q for it's curios. Tommy Paul,
Speaker 2: Yakub Mensik, who we've I've made a lot on caspar
Speaker 2: rude is in there, but I'm not really feeling rude
Speaker 2: right now. And then of course there is the art
Speaker 2: or feast f I l s for those who don't know.
Speaker 2: And then there's Kena Shakori, who has had this post
Speaker 2: injury resurgence and for those who don't know, Kedah Shakori
Speaker 2: has the greatest best of five record in the history
Speaker 2: of tennis. So he's one of these guys where I
Speaker 2: will bet on him hoping that it goes to five.
Speaker 2: It's the weird I feel this about no other player, right,
Speaker 2: But I'm like, I want him because I will outlast
Speaker 2: at the opponent. So he's just an interesting guy too,
Speaker 2: because you never know with him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was gonna say, maybe it's a prime I'm
Speaker 1: never to feels like a really good fit set player
Speaker 1: to me. But although he's probably lost a lot of
Speaker 1: really big matches in the fifth now, but I will
Speaker 1: I will say, I agree with your sentiment about Rude.
Speaker 1: It kind of pains me because I am a big
Speaker 1: Rude fan looking forward to kind of finding ways to
Speaker 1: back him on clay. But I honestly could see him
Speaker 1: losing in the first round. John Munar is playing very
Speaker 1: well coming into this tournament, and Mensic in the second
Speaker 1: round is a really tough one. If Mensic gets by
Speaker 1: Nikolas besils Vili, who is a very good qualifier. There
Speaker 1: are a few qualifiers that are very, very talented.
Speaker 2: You remember one Basilishvili won Indian Wells during the champas
Speaker 2: really good for.
Speaker 1: A very long time. It's like he rips the ball.
Speaker 1: He's one of the biggest forehands I've ever seen.
Speaker 2: I'm just glancing at these, At some of these first
Speaker 2: round matches, I'm like, Wow, Davidovich Fokina against Junshang Shang
Speaker 2: is a great match.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Fritz quarter, the Fritz cater quarter is like
Speaker 1: all blockbuster matches in the first.
Speaker 2: Round, some of these, Norri Barrettini, how do you feel
Speaker 2: about that anywhere?
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, he's really competitive, though I don't see him
Speaker 1: kind of getting out for that. To the ones that
Speaker 1: I've already put in, I've already put in two. I
Speaker 1: have him Petchi Para card minus one thirty eight against
Speaker 1: Gael Month Feesh and Petchi Para card. Not quite on
Speaker 1: the fun Saco level for me, where I'm like certain
Speaker 1: he'll win majors in the future, but definitely think you can.
Speaker 1: I think there's an argument to be made that his
Speaker 1: serve right now is the best serve we've ever seen.
Speaker 1: He's got a massive, massive first serve and then his
Speaker 1: second serve is like a top five first serve so
Speaker 1: I think it's just it's impossible to beat him just
Speaker 1: because he guarantees a tiebreaker.
Speaker 2: Well, let me just ask you this. When you said
Speaker 2: minus one thirty eight, is that the price you bet
Speaker 2: it or is that your fair price?
Speaker 1: That's the price I bet it to win the match
Speaker 1: against month Fiest.
Speaker 2: Yeah, because this is now a complete coin flip between
Speaker 2: him and month Fees. I get his minus one ten
Speaker 2: on each side that I'm saying.
Speaker 1: I wonder if anything one Fees has played well over
Speaker 1: the last couple of days. I wonder if maybe that
Speaker 1: has something to do with it. But man, I don't
Speaker 1: think one Fees could beat them. I think that there's
Speaker 1: too many tossaway service games and you just cannot do
Speaker 1: that against Petri Para card rube.
Speaker 2: Lev is a minus one seventy five favorite over Shaofon
Speaker 2: Seka found sake about plus one forty two coming back.
Speaker 2: I have not dove into these numbers yet, so I'm
Speaker 2: just like reacting on this. Oh, here's one that just
Speaker 2: my eyes go to it. I'm like, ooh, I wonder
Speaker 2: if this is a bit. Nakashima is plus one seventy
Speaker 2: against Ben's shelt.
Speaker 1: So I wrote down like fifteen plays that I'm looking
Speaker 1: at and I just have to knock and I start
Speaker 1: to just kind of eliminate them once I researched them.
Speaker 1: One of them that I wrote in was Nakashima plus
Speaker 1: one and a half sets at minus one twenty five,
Speaker 1: so if he gets it to a five setter, he wins.
Speaker 1: I just think that there's not much that separates those two.
Speaker 1: Nakashima is a really good server. Both these guys are
Speaker 1: kind of great servers, bad returners. You're going to see
Speaker 1: probably three four time rakers in that match, and those
Speaker 1: are the types of matches where I just want to have,
Speaker 1: you know, an underdog.
Speaker 2: Curios is only a minus one twenty two favorite in
Speaker 2: his match, which to me is is the is the
Speaker 2: odds maker's way of saying, we have no idea what
Speaker 2: we're getting.
Speaker 1: I did take fairly plus one fifteen.
Speaker 2: You did, okay?
Speaker 1: Yeah. And the only other one I've made, just the
Speaker 1: last one that I made on the men's side, I
Speaker 1: took while Rinca I put like, I put a half
Speaker 1: unit on this plus two hundred to beat Sonago. I
Speaker 1: feel like wa Rinca is good for a first round
Speaker 1: juiced up match and then he loses in the second round.
Speaker 1: Is like his body breaks down, he gets tired. Sonigo
Speaker 1: also is just a terrible returner.
Speaker 2: I'm not even seeing that listed where I'm looking at
Speaker 2: bookmaker off Sure there's bad Oh it is plus yeah,
Speaker 2: plus twenty five. That's day Well, at least they had
Speaker 2: listened at day two, our buddy Todd wish or ear
Speaker 2: least my buddy Todd wishing them. He uh, when we
Speaker 2: would play tennis, he worked on this uh, this top
Speaker 2: spin backhand, and every time he would do it on me,
Speaker 2: he would shout. He would shout in the middle of
Speaker 2: he'd be like Vavrika right or Stantus lost? He would say,
Speaker 2: and you know what, you know what happened. He did
Speaker 2: it so much he sucked up his elbow and I
Speaker 2: can't believe it.
Speaker 1: Oh no, that's terrible.
Speaker 2: Soon he's not a thing right here.
Speaker 1: He I mean, he's got Michelson in round one, and
Speaker 1: if he gets by that, he's got a pretty good
Speaker 1: draw to the fourth round.
Speaker 2: That's a toss that Yeah, I was gonna say Mickelson
Speaker 2: is good on hards. Yep, where is Michelson? Let me
Speaker 2: see that one? What's the price you're looking at oh Man. Okay,
Speaker 2: so I have Michelson here at plus one forty. I
Speaker 2: gotta look into these because there might there might be
Speaker 2: a bunch of batches here lady's side. What have you
Speaker 2: bet so far? Around one anything?
Speaker 1: The only one that I really like so far. I
Speaker 1: already took it as Emma Navarro minus one thirty eight
Speaker 1: against Peyton Sterns. I know you're a Sterns guy. I'm
Speaker 1: a stern Sterns guy. I feel like there's a lot
Speaker 1: of Danielle Collins there, but her serve is just so
Speaker 1: bad that, like a really good returner like Navarro is
Speaker 1: gonna get a lot of breaks. And I just kind
Speaker 1: of think that Navarro is a decent enough server to
Speaker 1: get by that match and just kind of picked up
Speaker 1: some really quality big match experience last year. Stearns is
Speaker 1: a little bit green.
Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm a Sterns guy, Zach. I
Speaker 2: don't know if I can't get there, like every she
Speaker 2: lets me down so much. Navarro's interested because Navarro now
Speaker 2: made a lot of money betting Navarro last year. She
Speaker 2: was woefully under priced in the early part of the year.
Speaker 2: I think we want to match. I want to say,
Speaker 2: when she played Sablenca, was like she was like four dollars.
Speaker 2: She was a four dollar dog. And then once she
Speaker 2: started winning those matches, of course, then people recognize, oh
Speaker 2: my god, she's one of the she might be one
Speaker 2: of the best players on tour. She's sort of actuated
Speaker 2: back a little bit since then, I think, but you
Speaker 2: might be right. I mean, that's that's an interesting first
Speaker 2: round match between two Americans, Navarro and Stern.
Speaker 3: So you did, can I you?
Speaker 1: I bet Navarro. I think she's just a little sturdier.
Speaker 1: It's not much, there's not much of a difference between
Speaker 1: the two and from the baseline, but I think she's
Speaker 1: just a little sturdier and like more trustworthy. But the
Speaker 1: only other one that I have circled right now? Can
Speaker 1: I interest you in Sophia Kennon to win a set
Speaker 1: at plus two seventy five against golf.
Speaker 2: Sophia Kennon, for those who don't know, won this tournament.
Speaker 2: She won the Australian Open. We were I was on
Speaker 2: Sophia Kennon. This was right before the pandemic, so people
Speaker 2: don't remember it happening. People probably wouldn't remember it even
Speaker 2: the pandemic didn't happen. Like, Sofia Kenner won a major,
Speaker 2: do you want to slam? She won it? She is
Speaker 2: super steely, Like if she's playing well, she's a tough out.
Speaker 2: Yeah against Coco, Yeah, what's your number? What'd you say
Speaker 2: your price was?
Speaker 1: It was plus two seventy five to win a set?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would have to look into but kind of juicy.
Speaker 1: She is like as erratic. She's as erratic as it gets.
Speaker 1: But there's there's a lot of fu to her game though.
Speaker 1: And I do think that like playing another American, she
Speaker 1: goes on the court and she believes that she can
Speaker 1: beat them. There's no part of her that is like,
Speaker 1: oh I don't belong here. She's got another toxic relationship
Speaker 1: only hers is with her dad. But she is very,
Speaker 1: very talented. I did text a coworker like when she
Speaker 1: won that major and was like, that's never happening again.
Speaker 1: But I do think that there's a chance she pushes
Speaker 1: her to three.
Speaker 2: Wow. I'm just like some of these matches again and
Speaker 2: again for tennis hardos, this is the most awesome thing
Speaker 2: in the world. But benchic Astapenko is an opening round
Speaker 2: match with benches and minus one ninety six favorite Ostapenko's
Speaker 2: plus one fifty eight coming back. That's a I mean,
Speaker 2: Pinko has not been her normal self. Let's make that
Speaker 2: get But still intriguing to see that that's a first
Speaker 2: round match. And then there's I mean, I'm gonna have
Speaker 2: to go into these, but there there's definitely somewhere I'm like, Okay,
Speaker 2: Radu Khanu is a favorite over Alexandrova.
Speaker 1: Interesting, Yes, I was curious about that one. I don't
Speaker 1: trust Emma's like fitness and health right now, but I
Speaker 1: do think she wins that match like eight times out
Speaker 1: of ten if they if they were to play it
Speaker 1: in you know, normal conditions for both of them.
Speaker 2: Well, if that's eight times out of ten, that's a
Speaker 2: play on a Radikano based on that, well.
Speaker 1: She is she is injured last week right or a
Speaker 1: week or two ago.
Speaker 2: Yep, yeah, I do like Paulina.
Speaker 1: Paulina kuter Matova minus one nine against Magdalena Freck.
Speaker 2: I'm glad you brought her up. So I made the
Speaker 2: horrible mistake of playing some of these matches in Brisbane
Speaker 2: and Adelaide amazed the Australian accent. Again, Kudermatova was the
Speaker 2: only thing I did right, repeated yep. So for those
Speaker 2: who don't know, this is the little sister of Veronica
Speaker 2: kuder Matova. Veronic der Matova, pardon me, I'm pronouncing that
Speaker 2: with a correct emphasis on whatever syllable was a top
Speaker 2: twenty player in the world at one point twenty five
Speaker 2: something like that. Higher it might have maybe higher, yeah,
Speaker 2: maybe even higher, and was always a player that was,
Speaker 2: you know, well known. And Polina Kudermtova is twenty one.
Speaker 2: I want to say, I think Veronica is twenty seven.
Speaker 2: Polinaku Deermtova is twenty one. She's playing great man like
Speaker 2: she I think it was was it Brisbane where she
Speaker 2: lasted way longer than Veronica did, So that's an interesting
Speaker 2: I'm glad you brought that up, because she's been the
Speaker 2: only bright spot for me here. Pre ossi open I do.
Speaker 1: I do echo what you kind of said before, though.
Speaker 1: I think there's a chance Jabor ends up going pretty
Speaker 1: pretty far here. I think that a lot of people
Speaker 1: have kind of written her off because of that injury
Speaker 1: filled last season, but she does have a pretty good draw.
Speaker 1: She's in the ego quarter that I think is kind
Speaker 1: of wide open at the top, So I honestly put
Speaker 1: her in as a question mark to be in the
Speaker 1: fourth round, and I think that there's a chance that
Speaker 1: she gets there. She's got a few you know, toss
Speaker 1: up matches early, but just I thought she looked good.
Speaker 1: In the last couple of weeks. She lost to Miro
Speaker 1: Andreva in a match that was a little closer than
Speaker 1: the scor se Justin. She lost to Putin, and I
Speaker 1: don't think that there's anything wrong with that. I think
Speaker 1: that those are two really tough players.
Speaker 2: Again, all of Zach's plays, all of my plays at
Speaker 2: vison dot com slash picks for VSA subscribers. Zach and
Speaker 2: I aren't making any money off at it's for you know,
Speaker 2: subscribers at vson well worth. I think that the picks
Speaker 2: alone from everybody as well worth it. But may I
Speaker 2: just sort of, you know, stump for us the fact
Speaker 2: that tennis is like every damn day of the year,
Speaker 2: right from from this point to you know, the end
Speaker 2: of the US Open. For sure, every day. You definitely
Speaker 2: get your value on that.
Speaker 3: So what did we learn here?
Speaker 2: We're both on fan seka in different ways though, right
Speaker 2: you took them to the quarter and you you how
Speaker 2: did you manipulate again, you went.
Speaker 1: I took him and rube Lef, just both of them.
Speaker 1: So if he loses that first match, then no worries.
Speaker 1: I'll just root for rube Lef.
Speaker 2: But uh, I think, yeah, I like that. Yeah, and
Speaker 2: then we're we're kind of we're simpat to go in
Speaker 2: terms of EGA's draw. But you still think Arena wins
Speaker 2: Arena Sabalanca wins this tournament in the end, I think so.
Speaker 2: And then yeah, and my sort of again on the
Speaker 2: lady side, as bullish as I am on EGA, I
Speaker 2: think Carolina Mhova bets right now would do you very
Speaker 2: nicely here, either quarter or even outright like. I think
Speaker 2: she's that good, I really do.
Speaker 1: I might add I might add the quarter play.
Speaker 2: Yeah, dude, She's always one of those players too. And
Speaker 2: she was hurt for a long time here. She got
Speaker 2: to the French Open final against the EGA, she somehow
Speaker 2: lost that she had a good shot at winning it,
Speaker 2: and then she got hurt and so she was away
Speaker 2: for a while and people kind of don't think of
Speaker 2: her in that upper tier. I really do, like I do.
Speaker 2: And if it's not the upper tier, it's like the
Speaker 2: smallest notch below it at this point, and I don't
Speaker 2: think she's priced accordingly. I really don't, so.
Speaker 1: She never is.
Speaker 3: I did.
Speaker 1: I want to say it was the Roland Garrols last year.
Speaker 1: I got a really good price on her to win
Speaker 1: the quarter and she won it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and just I mean just I know people like
Speaker 2: probably want some context here, but it's like, you know,
Speaker 2: I was saying to Drew that ego on hard courts
Speaker 2: like all through last year, even when she was again,
Speaker 2: I love it when people think she had an off year.
Speaker 2: I meanwhile, she's still winning five tournaments in a slam
Speaker 2: that kind of thing. But on hardcore she still had
Speaker 2: the best numbers, and I acknowledge that they have fallen
Speaker 2: a little bit. The gap has narrowed, but she still
Speaker 2: has the best right. And so what I'm talking about
Speaker 2: is if you think of one hundred as average, ego's
Speaker 2: like at one ten, Sablenka's now used to be like fourteen,
Speaker 2: one fifteen kind of thing is like one tennish Sabalnka
Speaker 2: is more or less one oh nine ish, and Mohova
Speaker 2: is right there ahead of Go go for my number
Speaker 2: with Rebakin a fifth, So you know, there you go,
Speaker 2: think the thing with ego is it's.
Speaker 1: Like she's most beatable on these quick surfaces. That's really
Speaker 1: what it is. Like there's a little bit more risk
Speaker 1: involved with taking her, but she's still unbelievable. It's like,
Speaker 1: I do think she's gonna have a really big season,
Speaker 1: Like I like the coach that she hired. I think
Speaker 1: that she has upped her you know, service speed a lot.
Speaker 1: There's just some stuff between the ears that she's got
Speaker 1: to figure out. I think that when she starts playing poorly,
Speaker 1: she completely beats herself.
Speaker 2: That's what it is. That's exact, that's exactly what it is.
Speaker 2: She is still she's twenty three years old and you know,
Speaker 2: five slams okay again, yeah awesome. She's won twenty two
Speaker 2: tournaments on twenty two and most of those are are hardcore.
Speaker 2: They're not clay, right, People think, oh, she's a clay
Speaker 2: court player. No, she's a great hardcore player. But you
Speaker 2: hit it, which is she puts way too much pressure
Speaker 2: on herself, or at least whatever pressure she puts on herself,
Speaker 2: she does not deal with it well. And so when
Speaker 2: she gets in a you know, you can think of
Speaker 2: the players who have beaten her, and I can almost
Speaker 2: name them all, right, where it's Fidelino or Noskova. Yeah, Ostapenko,
Speaker 2: I think is the only player. Maybe Rebakkna also it's
Speaker 2: either both of them or just Ostapenko. It's the only
Speaker 2: player on tour that she doesn't have a five hundred
Speaker 2: record or better. I think we're Bakka. But when I
Speaker 2: say not against Ostapenko, I think it's oh to four.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: But generally speaking, if you are not a hard hitter,
Speaker 2: she doesn't have trouble with you. But when she does
Speaker 2: face a hard hitter and things don't go well, she
Speaker 2: does have a she has an issue between the years
Speaker 2: and once she overcomes them, and I do mean when
Speaker 2: and not if she will. Yeah, there's no telling because
Speaker 2: even Sabalanca, like who had the yips with the serve,
Speaker 2: somehow she got past that and now she's, yeah, you know,
Speaker 2: a great player. But imagine if she had never gotten
Speaker 2: past that, right, but she did.
Speaker 1: I think I think a lot of people, a lot
Speaker 1: of people credit Sablenca's team being very like light and
Speaker 1: an area off the court with just kind of taking
Speaker 1: pressure off of her ego could probably benefit from that.
Speaker 1: I think, honestly, there's a lot of similarities between Ego
Speaker 1: and Carlos and the way that they handle things on
Speaker 1: the court when they're going poorly. I don't think Alcoraz
Speaker 1: where's it like with the anxiety that Ego does. He
Speaker 1: kind of just gets a little bit of frustrated. But
Speaker 1: both of them, when their a game is not there,
Speaker 1: they start to try to problem solve and they have
Speaker 1: a lot of issues doing it.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, I wish Ego Ego was as good as
Speaker 2: Carlos is. Carlos is pretty unbelievable that yeah, but Eagle
Speaker 2: will get in stretches where I'm like, what's happening? Why
Speaker 2: she hit? And everything out? Yeah, anyway, this is gonna
Speaker 2: be awesome. I hope people got the nuggets they wanted here,
Speaker 2: both pre draw and post draw. I can talk about
Speaker 2: tennis for a hour, I really could. I'm looking forward
Speaker 2: to the first round this begins. Don't now, don't hold
Speaker 2: me to this, but I want to get this right
Speaker 2: because this is always the thing with time zones. Right,
Speaker 2: So in Australia, while we're watching football on Friday, Wait
Speaker 2: a minute, hold on, that's not true. Well we're watching
Speaker 2: football tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Wow?
Speaker 2: Is this starting a day earlier than normal?
Speaker 1: I think it starts tomorrow night, and I think they
Speaker 1: have a three day first round.
Speaker 2: That's what it is. So this year. I always remember
Speaker 2: this starting Sunday night during an NFL think layoff weekend.
Speaker 2: But we're a day ahead, Glad. I looked, Zach.
Speaker 1: I think last year they switched to the I think
Speaker 1: they switched last year.
Speaker 2: Did they switch last year? Man, I think you're right
Speaker 2: now that you mentioned so. Okay, So while we're watching
Speaker 2: the second game of the NFL slate tomorrow, this is
Speaker 2: when the Australian opens, So I gotta get to it,
Speaker 2: if you know what I mean. Got to get to it,
Speaker 2: and we'll see how many bets I have here in
Speaker 2: the first round. My instinct is to like is what
Speaker 2: you were saying, I think, And we'll close with this.
Speaker 2: What you were saying earlier is interesting because there's so
Speaker 2: many matches, and you were saying, oh, look at fifteen.
Speaker 2: I mike down fifteen and then I narrow it down.
Speaker 2: That's the thing with some of these opening rounds and
Speaker 2: these slams. There's a million matches, so you almost fight
Speaker 2: against your instinct to play tons of them. And I
Speaker 2: will tell you that that cuts both ways, right, because
Speaker 2: sometimes inevitably I'm like, why didn't I play all those matches?
Speaker 2: And then in time, thank god, Yeah.
Speaker 1: I do get carried away. I'm sure people that are
Speaker 1: watching this, that have been following our ton of stuff
Speaker 1: can see. I'll have five six days. It's five six
Speaker 1: plays in a day, and I will have picks. I
Speaker 1: will have picks up every day, written plays, so make
Speaker 1: sure you're checking the website for those. I'll put them
Speaker 1: on the prop bis page as well, but we'll have
Speaker 1: write ups, Zach.
Speaker 2: I appreciated man betting on X for Zach Cohen the
Speaker 2: Australian Open twenty twenty five, as the tennis season begins
Speaker 2: with a Slam. Thanks for listening, Good luck with all
Speaker 2: your bets. Hope we made you some money here. Only
Speaker 2: time will tell. We will find out and again first
Speaker 2: round picks at beson dot com slash.
Speaker 3: Thank you, Zach,