WEBVTT - US Retaliation Against Iran: Dr. Jeff McCausland Talks to A&G

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<v Speaker 1>It running back to Houti militants launching a new rave

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<v Speaker 1>of missiles and drones that commercial ships their response after

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<v Speaker 1>the US destroyed ten of their attack drones and a

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<v Speaker 1>ground control station in Yemen, but the string of US

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<v Speaker 1>and Allied strikes so far failing to slow the Hooty attacks.

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<v Speaker 1>Final preparations now under way at the Pentagon for multi

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<v Speaker 1>day multi target missilein bomb strikes. Militants and their weapons

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<v Speaker 1>in a rock, Syria, and possibly Yemen all on the

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<v Speaker 1>list of likely targets for retaliation.

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<v Speaker 2>They have a lot of kabilly, I have a lot more.

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<v Speaker 3>I am frustrated as hell as how this story has

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<v Speaker 3>dropped out of the news media so much. Martha raddits

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<v Speaker 3>she seems to be frustrated herself on ABC News. I

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<v Speaker 3>like the angle She's been taken all week long. But

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<v Speaker 3>last yet, so Lloyd Austin does a press conferenceation today.

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<v Speaker 3>The only thing anybody seemed to be concerned about was

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<v Speaker 3>the you know why he didn't tell the president when

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<v Speaker 3>he told the president, and the whole prostate thing and

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<v Speaker 3>everything like that barely and he coverage whatsoever. Questions of

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<v Speaker 3>what do you think about three of your service people

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<v Speaker 3>dying last week. How are they not protected? How are

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<v Speaker 3>you going to keep them protected in the future. We've

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<v Speaker 3>seen no evidence of deterrence against any of these groups.

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<v Speaker 3>To who these are still firing at US? That was

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<v Speaker 3>like not even an important story for most of the newscasts.

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<v Speaker 3>Really pissed me off.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, we can delve into the media coverage of it

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<v Speaker 4>at some point, but let's welcome Jeff mccauslin's CBS News

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<v Speaker 4>military consultant to discuss the military aspects of this. Jeff,

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<v Speaker 4>there's so much When Jack was just describing the fact

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<v Speaker 4>that the Pentagon is still quote unquote making final preparations

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<v Speaker 4>and then announcing where the attacks would come. What do

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<v Speaker 4>you make of all this?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I make first of all, I'd share some of

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<v Speaker 2>Jack's frustrations. Jean. For a long time, I've been saying

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<v Speaker 2>this is almost inevitable, this particular tragedy. US forces in

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<v Speaker 2>Iraq and Syria have been subjected to over one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and sixty attacks by these particular groups prior to the

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<v Speaker 2>one that hit the tower twenty two and Jordan. The

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<v Speaker 2>result in three USKI. So despite our efforts and we

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<v Speaker 2>have not been able to shot shoot down and defend

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<v Speaker 2>ourselves think pretty dog going well, Inevitably one of these

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<v Speaker 2>things was going to get through. Inevitably you were going

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<v Speaker 2>to able to tragedy like this kind of this where

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<v Speaker 2>you're at. Clearly the Pentagon is preparing for some type

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<v Speaker 2>of a large scale response. I think it'll be a

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<v Speaker 2>Mouldi day if you will, air campaign real questions of

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<v Speaker 2>why this is taken so long. But I think to

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<v Speaker 2>some degree, when you're doing something like this, you want

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<v Speaker 2>to be a bit deliberate. Clearly, what the Divide administration

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<v Speaker 2>has been trying to do in all its responses is

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<v Speaker 2>walk a tight rope between trying to send a very

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<v Speaker 2>clear and forceful messages these various groups to stop doing

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<v Speaker 2>what they're doing, whether there are Rocky groups, CHII groups

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<v Speaker 2>back by Iran or whether the huthis in Yemen. Well

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<v Speaker 2>at the same time not doing something so precipitous that

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<v Speaker 2>the tips that particular conflict, all this being tied to

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<v Speaker 2>the war in Gaza into a regional conflict that could

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<v Speaker 2>literally stretch from the Mediterranean See all the way to Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>And then there are operational requirements that have to be considered. Apparently,

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<v Speaker 2>the weather and the target area has been particularly bad,

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<v Speaker 2>and they're interested that you go in VFR visual so

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<v Speaker 2>you can make sure you hit the right targets and

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<v Speaker 2>have the least collateral damage. Number Two, you've got to

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<v Speaker 2>make sure that you wouldn't look at force protection because

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<v Speaker 2>once this campaign begins, all the bases we have in

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<v Speaker 2>a Rock and in Syria, and we have a number

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<v Speaker 2>in some places relatively remotely, there may be a large

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<v Speaker 2>scale response, and as a consequence, we've got to be

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<v Speaker 2>ready to resupply, reinforce, defend, or in fact evacuate those

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<v Speaker 2>bases if things were to escalate very precipitously in the aftermath.

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<v Speaker 2>We've got to make sure we talk to some of

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<v Speaker 2>the allies in the region, make sure we understand they

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<v Speaker 2>their concerns, and then we decide where we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>go on that tight rope between trying to send a

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<v Speaker 2>very very forceful message that hopefully brings us to a

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<v Speaker 2>close without kicking this over into a major regional conflict.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, everything you say is unquestionably true, but my counter

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<v Speaker 4>would simply be you would think those preparations would have

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<v Speaker 4>begun in earnest after say thirty or a sixty or

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<v Speaker 4>one hundred and twenty seven attacks, and as we have

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<v Speaker 4>been saying similar to you, it seems an awful lot

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<v Speaker 4>like the administration endured attack after attack after attack and

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<v Speaker 4>needed some dead people to justify the sort of deterrence

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<v Speaker 4>that would prevent dead people. And it just I find

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<v Speaker 4>that morally and as a patriot unacceptable.

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<v Speaker 2>No, I think your point is very well taken. But

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<v Speaker 2>that being said to you, in this case, I learned

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<v Speaker 2>when I worked in the White House and I work

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<v Speaker 2>in the Pentagon. When you get into a crisis like this,

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<v Speaker 2>this immediate attack, you got to make sure you understand

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<v Speaker 2>one thing. Half of the initial reports you get is wrong,

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<v Speaker 2>and so as a consequence, one thing you want to

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<v Speaker 2>make sure as you identify which of the groups is

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<v Speaker 2>directly responsible for this attack, It's very likely this group

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<v Speaker 2>called katav hits Belah without a doubt, though there are

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<v Speaker 2>two or three other Scheite militia groups that are operating

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<v Speaker 2>in the area in both Syria and Rock. Second thing

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<v Speaker 2>you got to look for is the proverbial smoking gun. Yes,

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<v Speaker 2>as the President said, are these groups backed by iron,

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<v Speaker 2>no question about it. Is the drone that was using

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<v Speaker 2>this attack, largely manufactured in likely manufacturer probably and the

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<v Speaker 2>minissions on board, but backed by iron does not mean

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<v Speaker 2>directed by iron. Can you find the smoking guns from

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<v Speaker 2>intelligence where you have a direct connection between the IRGC

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<v Speaker 2>Revolutionary Guards in Iran and this particular group. I mean, metaphorically,

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<v Speaker 2>we back Israel in the conflict there involved in, but

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<v Speaker 2>we don't direct the ongoing military operations. The fact, we've

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<v Speaker 2>complained about the level of violence that the Israelis have

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<v Speaker 2>used to kill twenty six thousand Palestinians. So there's that

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<v Speaker 2>differentiation of me and those I think will slow that response.

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<v Speaker 2>Although you're quite right, many of these things in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of so called options, should have been prepared in advance

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<v Speaker 2>if in fact we saw the situation deteriorating in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of descending, resupplying, or evacuating our bases in the region. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>I got violence.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm beyond an armchaired quarterback on this. I'm not even

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<v Speaker 3>as good is that. But I do not understand, since

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<v Speaker 3>you used the word inevitable over and over and over again,

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<v Speaker 3>how the Pentagon didn't have all of these plans ready

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<v Speaker 3>to go immediately when it finally happened. And then in

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<v Speaker 3>terms of you saying they're all backed by Iran but

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<v Speaker 3>not directed by Iran. What difference does it make if

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<v Speaker 3>you hit Iran hard enough, they'd have to call off

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<v Speaker 3>their dogs, wouldn't They wouldn't they have to say, hey,

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<v Speaker 3>you better not do that anymore. And we're trying to

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<v Speaker 3>deter the houthis also from interrupting the shipping lane. So

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<v Speaker 3>we got to send a message to all of those

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<v Speaker 3>at the same time, don't we.

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<v Speaker 2>Well to sendergree these two they're connected, but they're separate.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, what will deter these Iraqi groups? I think

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<v Speaker 2>will be different than necessarily deter the HOUTHI But you're

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<v Speaker 2>quite right. We can go after Iran a big way

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<v Speaker 2>if we sort of choose. We certainly have the capabilities

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<v Speaker 2>beyond question. But we also have to consider what happens

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<v Speaker 2>in response. Okay, what happens in response? Uranians have already

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<v Speaker 2>demonstrated long range missile capability. They struck Pakistan because of

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<v Speaker 2>a terrorist attack in the last few weeks. They struck

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<v Speaker 2>a group in Syria a week or so ago against

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<v Speaker 2>the so called terror We know they have long rangeists.

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<v Speaker 2>They could respond using that. They could intensify their efforts

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<v Speaker 2>all across the region to include hitz Fe Lah in

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<v Speaker 2>soudn elebanon intensifying their attacks on Israel. They could for

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<v Speaker 2>a time at least close the Straits of Hormuz and

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<v Speaker 2>drive the price to oil one hundred fifty bucks of barrow.

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<v Speaker 2>Those may be things that you're willing to accept without question,

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<v Speaker 2>but you've got to consider that particular possibility. In some ways,

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<v Speaker 2>I think deterring and getting these people to stop doing

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<v Speaker 2>what they're doing in Iraq and Syria is a lot

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<v Speaker 2>easier than trying to deter the hooties who have asclutely

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<v Speaker 2>nothing to lose and have their own agenda as do

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<v Speaker 2>the Iraqis, which is to embellish their brand, attack more resources,

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<v Speaker 2>encourage more volunteers, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 4>I find myself wishing we had almost unlimited time for

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<v Speaker 4>the Socratic class with doctor Jeff McCausland here CBS News

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<v Speaker 4>Military Consultant, because if I was sitting there in your class,

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<v Speaker 4>I would say, well, Professor mccauslan, it sounds like we're

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<v Speaker 4>What you and Jack are are are talking about is

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<v Speaker 4>the question of the US's meticulousness and deliberation that we

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<v Speaker 4>have to have a smoking gun. We need to figure

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<v Speaker 4>out if Iran was actually directing blah blah blah, as

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<v Speaker 4>opposed to not worrying about that sort of thing and

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<v Speaker 4>just protecting the sort of power that our advertaries would say.

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<v Speaker 4>We don't want to mess with them. We just can't

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<v Speaker 4>mess with them. Last time we did, they went nuts,

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<v Speaker 4>they blew up things, had nothing to do with it.

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<v Speaker 4>We're never going to mess with them again. And I

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<v Speaker 4>realized that the answer to that query would take a

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<v Speaker 4>very long time. But I think that's where we're at,

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<v Speaker 4>isn't it.

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<v Speaker 2>It is the degree. But that one thing I always

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<v Speaker 2>about concerned about when we make a response to things

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<v Speaker 2>like this is and I saw this in Washington. Nobody

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<v Speaker 2>seems to want to answer the following question. And then

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<v Speaker 2>what and then what? You know, a military force is

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<v Speaker 2>a means and not an answer. We can go and

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<v Speaker 2>just devastate it if you'd like. It, could nuke Oran

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<v Speaker 2>if you like, We could do all that. What does

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<v Speaker 2>that leave us on the other end of it? And

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<v Speaker 2>the concern is to lead us into a wider conference concern.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, it results in large scale civilian casualties on

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<v Speaker 2>the Iranian side. A lot of innocent people had nothing

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<v Speaker 2>to do with all this stuff, are going to die

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<v Speaker 2>or get killed in the process. Now, once again, one

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<v Speaker 2>might argue, and one could have a convincing argument that

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<v Speaker 2>that level of deterrence is required. Okay, but at least

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<v Speaker 2>I would I'd like to make sure there was some

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<v Speaker 2>consideration of what happens the day after as you go

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<v Speaker 2>through this process.

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<v Speaker 3>Sure shouldn't. Ultimately, though, they be more worried about us

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<v Speaker 3>escalating than us worried about them escalating.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, they are worried about us escalating. Quite frankly. The

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<v Speaker 2>first thing the Arrange do is jump up in all

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<v Speaker 2>the forms they could find and deny any connection to

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<v Speaker 2>this particular mission. At the same time, kadab hits Balah

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<v Speaker 2>jumped up in all their forms social media likes, and

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<v Speaker 2>Ron was totally disconnected from all this. And oh, by

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<v Speaker 2>the way, after negotiation with the Iraqi government, we've decided

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to suspend all these particular tacks so that

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<v Speaker 2>they're all kind of scurrying towards the exits. And that's why,

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<v Speaker 2>instead of a moment ago, it seems to me bringing this

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<v Speaker 2>particular sad chapter to a close may be easier than

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<v Speaker 2>dealing with the Houthis. Unfortunately, I don't think they've got

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<v Speaker 2>a great deal to lose. The problem the Iranians have

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<v Speaker 2>got is they basically, I think, in many ways, won

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<v Speaker 2>the game. The game for them was to get the

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<v Speaker 2>United States out of the reach out of Iraq. In particular,

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<v Speaker 2>even prior to this most recent attack, we had begun

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<v Speaker 2>negotiations with the Iraqi government on a timetable to withdraw

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<v Speaker 2>our forces because of strained relations following previous air strikes

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<v Speaker 2>that hit Iraqi soil. So the Iranians had really in

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<v Speaker 2>their hand gained what they wanted to accomplish, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think they have gone a step too far, or their proxies,

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<v Speaker 2>who they may have only limited control of, its going

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<v Speaker 2>a step too far. And so what they want to

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<v Speaker 2>do is take their winnings and leave the table.

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<v Speaker 4>So interesting. Jeff mccauslm CBS News military consultant, Always enjoy

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<v Speaker 4>the conversation, Jeff, thanks a million.

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<v Speaker 2>You guys are a pleasure to talk to.