1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,240 Speaker 1: It running back to Houti militants launching a new rave 2 00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: of missiles and drones that commercial ships their response after 3 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:10,159 Speaker 1: the US destroyed ten of their attack drones and a 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:13,400 Speaker 1: ground control station in Yemen, but the string of US 5 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: and Allied strikes so far failing to slow the Hooty attacks. 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: Final preparations now under way at the Pentagon for multi 7 00:00:21,040 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 1: day multi target missilein bomb strikes. Militants and their weapons 8 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: in a rock, Syria, and possibly Yemen all on the 9 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: list of likely targets for retaliation. 10 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 2: They have a lot of kabilly, I have a lot more. 11 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:38,879 Speaker 3: I am frustrated as hell as how this story has 12 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 3: dropped out of the news media so much. Martha raddits 13 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 3: she seems to be frustrated herself on ABC News. I 14 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:46,760 Speaker 3: like the angle She's been taken all week long. But 15 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 3: last yet, so Lloyd Austin does a press conferenceation today. 16 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 3: The only thing anybody seemed to be concerned about was 17 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 3: the you know why he didn't tell the president when 18 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 3: he told the president, and the whole prostate thing and 19 00:00:56,800 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 3: everything like that barely and he coverage whatsoever. Questions of 20 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 3: what do you think about three of your service people 21 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,760 Speaker 3: dying last week. How are they not protected? How are 22 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:08,839 Speaker 3: you going to keep them protected in the future. We've 23 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,240 Speaker 3: seen no evidence of deterrence against any of these groups. 24 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 3: To who these are still firing at US? That was 25 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 3: like not even an important story for most of the newscasts. 26 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:18,840 Speaker 3: Really pissed me off. 27 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:22,600 Speaker 4: Well, we can delve into the media coverage of it 28 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 4: at some point, but let's welcome Jeff mccauslin's CBS News 29 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 4: military consultant to discuss the military aspects of this. Jeff, 30 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 4: there's so much When Jack was just describing the fact 31 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 4: that the Pentagon is still quote unquote making final preparations 32 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 4: and then announcing where the attacks would come. What do 33 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 4: you make of all this? 34 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:42,520 Speaker 2: Well, I make first of all, I'd share some of 35 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:45,199 Speaker 2: Jack's frustrations. Jean. For a long time, I've been saying 36 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:49,120 Speaker 2: this is almost inevitable, this particular tragedy. US forces in 37 00:01:49,160 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 2: Iraq and Syria have been subjected to over one hundred 38 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 2: and sixty attacks by these particular groups prior to the 39 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 2: one that hit the tower twenty two and Jordan. The 40 00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 2: result in three USKI. So despite our efforts and we 41 00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:03,639 Speaker 2: have not been able to shot shoot down and defend 42 00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:07,160 Speaker 2: ourselves think pretty dog going well, Inevitably one of these 43 00:02:07,160 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 2: things was going to get through. Inevitably you were going 44 00:02:09,000 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 2: to able to tragedy like this kind of this where 45 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 2: you're at. Clearly the Pentagon is preparing for some type 46 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,639 Speaker 2: of a large scale response. I think it'll be a 47 00:02:17,680 --> 00:02:21,640 Speaker 2: Mouldi day if you will, air campaign real questions of 48 00:02:21,680 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 2: why this is taken so long. But I think to 49 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:25,960 Speaker 2: some degree, when you're doing something like this, you want 50 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,799 Speaker 2: to be a bit deliberate. Clearly, what the Divide administration 51 00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 2: has been trying to do in all its responses is 52 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,919 Speaker 2: walk a tight rope between trying to send a very 53 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 2: clear and forceful messages these various groups to stop doing 54 00:02:37,600 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 2: what they're doing, whether there are Rocky groups, CHII groups 55 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 2: back by Iran or whether the huthis in Yemen. Well 56 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 2: at the same time not doing something so precipitous that 57 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 2: the tips that particular conflict, all this being tied to 58 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 2: the war in Gaza into a regional conflict that could 59 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:55,440 Speaker 2: literally stretch from the Mediterranean See all the way to Iran. 60 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 2: And then there are operational requirements that have to be considered. Apparently, 61 00:02:59,040 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 2: the weather and the target area has been particularly bad, 62 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 2: and they're interested that you go in VFR visual so 63 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 2: you can make sure you hit the right targets and 64 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 2: have the least collateral damage. Number Two, you've got to 65 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 2: make sure that you wouldn't look at force protection because 66 00:03:11,919 --> 00:03:15,520 Speaker 2: once this campaign begins, all the bases we have in 67 00:03:15,520 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: a Rock and in Syria, and we have a number 68 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:20,919 Speaker 2: in some places relatively remotely, there may be a large 69 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 2: scale response, and as a consequence, we've got to be 70 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 2: ready to resupply, reinforce, defend, or in fact evacuate those 71 00:03:28,720 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 2: bases if things were to escalate very precipitously in the aftermath. 72 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 2: We've got to make sure we talk to some of 73 00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 2: the allies in the region, make sure we understand they 74 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 2: their concerns, and then we decide where we're going to 75 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 2: go on that tight rope between trying to send a 76 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 2: very very forceful message that hopefully brings us to a 77 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 2: close without kicking this over into a major regional conflict. 78 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 4: Well, everything you say is unquestionably true, but my counter 79 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 4: would simply be you would think those preparations would have 80 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 4: begun in earnest after say thirty or a sixty or 81 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty seven attacks, and as we have 82 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 4: been saying similar to you, it seems an awful lot 83 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:12,840 Speaker 4: like the administration endured attack after attack after attack and 84 00:04:13,000 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 4: needed some dead people to justify the sort of deterrence 85 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 4: that would prevent dead people. And it just I find 86 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 4: that morally and as a patriot unacceptable. 87 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:28,599 Speaker 2: No, I think your point is very well taken. But 88 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 2: that being said to you, in this case, I learned 89 00:04:31,320 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 2: when I worked in the White House and I work 90 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,479 Speaker 2: in the Pentagon. When you get into a crisis like this, 91 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,160 Speaker 2: this immediate attack, you got to make sure you understand 92 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 2: one thing. Half of the initial reports you get is wrong, 93 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:43,359 Speaker 2: and so as a consequence, one thing you want to 94 00:04:43,360 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 2: make sure as you identify which of the groups is 95 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 2: directly responsible for this attack, It's very likely this group 96 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 2: called katav hits Belah without a doubt, though there are 97 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 2: two or three other Scheite militia groups that are operating 98 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 2: in the area in both Syria and Rock. Second thing 99 00:04:56,680 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 2: you got to look for is the proverbial smoking gun. Yes, 100 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 2: as the President said, are these groups backed by iron, 101 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 2: no question about it. Is the drone that was using 102 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 2: this attack, largely manufactured in likely manufacturer probably and the 103 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:14,920 Speaker 2: minissions on board, but backed by iron does not mean 104 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 2: directed by iron. Can you find the smoking guns from 105 00:05:17,600 --> 00:05:21,160 Speaker 2: intelligence where you have a direct connection between the IRGC 106 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 2: Revolutionary Guards in Iran and this particular group. I mean, metaphorically, 107 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 2: we back Israel in the conflict there involved in, but 108 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 2: we don't direct the ongoing military operations. The fact, we've 109 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 2: complained about the level of violence that the Israelis have 110 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,600 Speaker 2: used to kill twenty six thousand Palestinians. So there's that 111 00:05:39,680 --> 00:05:43,080 Speaker 2: differentiation of me and those I think will slow that response. 112 00:05:43,080 --> 00:05:45,679 Speaker 2: Although you're quite right, many of these things in terms 113 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:49,320 Speaker 2: of so called options, should have been prepared in advance 114 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,599 Speaker 2: if in fact we saw the situation deteriorating in terms 115 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 2: of descending, resupplying, or evacuating our bases in the region. Yeah, 116 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 2: I got violence. 117 00:05:57,520 --> 00:05:59,720 Speaker 3: I'm beyond an armchaired quarterback on this. I'm not even 118 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 3: as good is that. But I do not understand, since 119 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 3: you used the word inevitable over and over and over again, 120 00:06:04,520 --> 00:06:06,839 Speaker 3: how the Pentagon didn't have all of these plans ready 121 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 3: to go immediately when it finally happened. And then in 122 00:06:09,880 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 3: terms of you saying they're all backed by Iran but 123 00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 3: not directed by Iran. What difference does it make if 124 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:17,400 Speaker 3: you hit Iran hard enough, they'd have to call off 125 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 3: their dogs, wouldn't They wouldn't they have to say, hey, 126 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 3: you better not do that anymore. And we're trying to 127 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:25,719 Speaker 3: deter the houthis also from interrupting the shipping lane. So 128 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 3: we got to send a message to all of those 129 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 3: at the same time, don't we. 130 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:33,480 Speaker 2: Well to sendergree these two they're connected, but they're separate. 131 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 2: I mean, what will deter these Iraqi groups? I think 132 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 2: will be different than necessarily deter the HOUTHI But you're 133 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 2: quite right. We can go after Iran a big way 134 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 2: if we sort of choose. We certainly have the capabilities 135 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 2: beyond question. But we also have to consider what happens 136 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 2: in response. Okay, what happens in response? Uranians have already 137 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 2: demonstrated long range missile capability. They struck Pakistan because of 138 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 2: a terrorist attack in the last few weeks. They struck 139 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 2: a group in Syria a week or so ago against 140 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 2: the so called terror We know they have long rangeists. 141 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 2: They could respond using that. They could intensify their efforts 142 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:07,760 Speaker 2: all across the region to include hitz Fe Lah in 143 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 2: soudn elebanon intensifying their attacks on Israel. They could for 144 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,120 Speaker 2: a time at least close the Straits of Hormuz and 145 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 2: drive the price to oil one hundred fifty bucks of barrow. 146 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 2: Those may be things that you're willing to accept without question, 147 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 2: but you've got to consider that particular possibility. In some ways, 148 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 2: I think deterring and getting these people to stop doing 149 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 2: what they're doing in Iraq and Syria is a lot 150 00:07:29,000 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 2: easier than trying to deter the hooties who have asclutely 151 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 2: nothing to lose and have their own agenda as do 152 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 2: the Iraqis, which is to embellish their brand, attack more resources, 153 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:40,559 Speaker 2: encourage more volunteers, et cetera. 154 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 4: I find myself wishing we had almost unlimited time for 155 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 4: the Socratic class with doctor Jeff McCausland here CBS News 156 00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 4: Military Consultant, because if I was sitting there in your class, 157 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 4: I would say, well, Professor mccauslan, it sounds like we're 158 00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:01,400 Speaker 4: What you and Jack are are are talking about is 159 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 4: the question of the US's meticulousness and deliberation that we 160 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 4: have to have a smoking gun. We need to figure 161 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 4: out if Iran was actually directing blah blah blah, as 162 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 4: opposed to not worrying about that sort of thing and 163 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:20,680 Speaker 4: just protecting the sort of power that our advertaries would say. 164 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 4: We don't want to mess with them. We just can't 165 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,960 Speaker 4: mess with them. Last time we did, they went nuts, 166 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 4: they blew up things, had nothing to do with it. 167 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 4: We're never going to mess with them again. And I 168 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 4: realized that the answer to that query would take a 169 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:35,079 Speaker 4: very long time. But I think that's where we're at, 170 00:08:35,120 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 4: isn't it. 171 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:38,440 Speaker 2: It is the degree. But that one thing I always 172 00:08:38,600 --> 00:08:41,400 Speaker 2: about concerned about when we make a response to things 173 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 2: like this is and I saw this in Washington. Nobody 174 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 2: seems to want to answer the following question. And then 175 00:08:46,960 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 2: what and then what? You know, a military force is 176 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 2: a means and not an answer. We can go and 177 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 2: just devastate it if you'd like. It, could nuke Oran 178 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:58,480 Speaker 2: if you like, We could do all that. What does 179 00:08:58,520 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 2: that leave us on the other end of it? And 180 00:09:00,679 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 2: the concern is to lead us into a wider conference concern. 181 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:08,440 Speaker 2: Of course, it results in large scale civilian casualties on 182 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:10,440 Speaker 2: the Iranian side. A lot of innocent people had nothing 183 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 2: to do with all this stuff, are going to die 184 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 2: or get killed in the process. Now, once again, one 185 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 2: might argue, and one could have a convincing argument that 186 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:21,520 Speaker 2: that level of deterrence is required. Okay, but at least 187 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:23,120 Speaker 2: I would I'd like to make sure there was some 188 00:09:23,160 --> 00:09:26,000 Speaker 2: consideration of what happens the day after as you go 189 00:09:26,080 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 2: through this process. 190 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 3: Sure shouldn't. Ultimately, though, they be more worried about us 191 00:09:31,760 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 3: escalating than us worried about them escalating. 192 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,960 Speaker 2: Well, they are worried about us escalating. Quite frankly. The 193 00:09:37,960 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 2: first thing the Arrange do is jump up in all 194 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 2: the forms they could find and deny any connection to 195 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 2: this particular mission. At the same time, kadab hits Balah 196 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 2: jumped up in all their forms social media likes, and 197 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 2: Ron was totally disconnected from all this. And oh, by 198 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 2: the way, after negotiation with the Iraqi government, we've decided 199 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:57,599 Speaker 2: we're going to suspend all these particular tacks so that 200 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 2: they're all kind of scurrying towards the exits. And that's why, 201 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 2: instead of a moment ago, it seems to me bringing this 202 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 2: particular sad chapter to a close may be easier than 203 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:09,080 Speaker 2: dealing with the Houthis. Unfortunately, I don't think they've got 204 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 2: a great deal to lose. The problem the Iranians have 205 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 2: got is they basically, I think, in many ways, won 206 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:16,199 Speaker 2: the game. The game for them was to get the 207 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 2: United States out of the reach out of Iraq. In particular, 208 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 2: even prior to this most recent attack, we had begun 209 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 2: negotiations with the Iraqi government on a timetable to withdraw 210 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 2: our forces because of strained relations following previous air strikes 211 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:33,080 Speaker 2: that hit Iraqi soil. So the Iranians had really in 212 00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 2: their hand gained what they wanted to accomplish, and I 213 00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,920 Speaker 2: think they have gone a step too far, or their proxies, 214 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:40,920 Speaker 2: who they may have only limited control of, its going 215 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 2: a step too far. And so what they want to 216 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 2: do is take their winnings and leave the table. 217 00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:50,280 Speaker 4: So interesting. Jeff mccauslm CBS News military consultant, Always enjoy 218 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 4: the conversation, Jeff, thanks a million. 219 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:54,400 Speaker 2: You guys are a pleasure to talk to.