WEBVTT - Paramount Extends Tender Offer for Warner Bros. Shares 

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<v Speaker 2>You know, need some more news today on this Warner

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<v Speaker 2>Brothers Discovery transaction.

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<v Speaker 3>Again. Netflix is bidding here. They've got their bid in there.

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<v Speaker 2>They just amended that to make it on all cash bid,

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<v Speaker 2>and Paramount Skuydants is also there and they just kind

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<v Speaker 2>of extended their deadline today for trying to get some

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<v Speaker 2>shares tendered.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know, but so far it's not been good

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<v Speaker 3>for them.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know. I don't know what's going on there.

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<v Speaker 3>But let's talk to Semashaw.

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<v Speaker 2>She's a pro with this stuff, vice president Research and

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<v Speaker 2>Insights at Censor Tower STEMA. Are you surprised that, I

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<v Speaker 2>don't know, either Netflix or Paramount SKUIDANTCE hasn't raised their offer.

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<v Speaker 3>We kind of just seem to be waiting here.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, I'm more surprised that Paramount has a simply because

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<v Speaker 5>I think they need the merger more based on their performance.

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<v Speaker 5>They are significantly smaller, like four percent of monthly actor

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<v Speaker 5>users share on a global basis compared to forty eight

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<v Speaker 5>percent for Netflix and ten percent for HBO max very

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<v Speaker 5>small percentage of ott AD revenue four percent again versus

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<v Speaker 5>eight percent for Netflix and like thirty thirty five percent

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<v Speaker 5>for Hulu. So for them, this deal would be much

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<v Speaker 5>more transformative. Right, and HBO has those tent pole shows

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<v Speaker 5>like White Lotus and now like Heated Robbery that are

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<v Speaker 5>in the zeitgeist and make people continue to remain subscribers.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 5>Netflix already has the highest retention rate for them, the

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<v Speaker 5>HBO acquisition is an opportunity to extend their growth rapidly,

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<v Speaker 5>like internationally where HBO is growing at a much faster

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<v Speaker 5>rate than anyone else. So I'm actually more surprised that

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<v Speaker 5>Paramount has it. But from what I've read also, the

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<v Speaker 5>Warner brother shareholders do not want that deal, so it

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<v Speaker 5>would have to probably be a substantial jump in price

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<v Speaker 5>to get over ninety percent of the shareholders to change

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<v Speaker 5>their mind.

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<v Speaker 6>So Paramount of Skydance State extending its tender offer for

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<v Speaker 6>those Warner Brothers' shares. The new offer expires February twentieth,

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<v Speaker 6>does this change anything. I mean roughly, I mean about

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<v Speaker 6>one hundred and sixty eight and a half million shares

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<v Speaker 6>have been tendered as of yesterday. That's only seven percent

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<v Speaker 6>of Warner Brothers shares outstanding. So does pushing out the

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<v Speaker 6>deadline actually mean it's going to get more support?

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<v Speaker 5>I don't think so. I don't think the delay is

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<v Speaker 5>simply because people haven't had a chance to tender their shares.

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<v Speaker 5>I just don't think that they find the offer as compelling.

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<v Speaker 5>And also, Warner Brothers management is sided with Netflix, right,

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<v Speaker 5>It's a well capitalized business, highest retention rate, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>content creation machine, especially on a global basis, you know,

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<v Speaker 5>non English language content, and so I think it's just

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<v Speaker 5>really hard for Amount, it's so much smaller to compete

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<v Speaker 5>with it. Like what does it bring to the table

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<v Speaker 5>for Warner Brothers which And I think that's the question.

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<v Speaker 2>And if Paramount does not get it, and you suggest

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<v Speaker 2>that you know, they probably need it, it's a mustag

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<v Speaker 2>versus maybe a nice to have for Netflix. What happens

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<v Speaker 2>you think the Paramount? If they don't get this deal,

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<v Speaker 2>then what do they do?

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<v Speaker 5>Well? I mean I think you just pushed them further

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<v Speaker 5>to the margin, right, as I said, they only have

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<v Speaker 5>like four percent of active user share on a global basis,

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<v Speaker 5>just to put that in perspective. Obviously, Netflix is the

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<v Speaker 5>belhema that forty eight percent. Amazon and Disney Plus are

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<v Speaker 5>about fifteen percent. So I'm not sure how they continue

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<v Speaker 5>to really grow. They would have to really change their model.

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<v Speaker 5>How are they going to grow internationally? Are they going

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<v Speaker 5>to try to get more sports, They're going to have

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<v Speaker 5>local language content. All of those endeavors to grow and

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<v Speaker 5>become larger require a lot of funding, right for sports,

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<v Speaker 5>right its content creation. So I feel like they'll sort

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<v Speaker 5>of still be on the periphery in many cases compared

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<v Speaker 5>to the larger streamers, and as a whole, by the way,

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<v Speaker 5>the entire space is all still competing with short form

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<v Speaker 5>video and just simply people's attention being pulled in other directions, right,

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<v Speaker 5>So I think that's kind of where that leaves them

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<v Speaker 5>if they don't get the deal.

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<v Speaker 6>So SIMA Sensor Tower is a digital market intelligence platform.

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<v Speaker 6>You provide data, analytics insights into the mobile app ecosystem.

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<v Speaker 6>What does your research what does your data show about

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<v Speaker 6>people's engagement with Warner Brothers properties? I mean beyond HBO,

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<v Speaker 6>the other stuff, and I guess that includes the cable

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<v Speaker 6>networks that Warner Brothers wants to spin off, that Paramountain

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<v Speaker 6>wants to buy, and that Netflix doesn't. And you know,

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<v Speaker 6>how does that compare to say what Netflix offers people.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, Netflix has the highest retention rate across the space,

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<v Speaker 5>right seventy four percent of its users are retained users.

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<v Speaker 5>People spend about ninety one minutes per week eleven sessions

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<v Speaker 5>per week on Netflix. In comparison, it's about six point

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<v Speaker 5>four sessions per week on Paramount. And so you know,

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<v Speaker 5>HBO is sort of in the middle. Our data is

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<v Speaker 5>really focused on the digital side of the business versus

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<v Speaker 5>any linear TV and then also our advertising data. So

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<v Speaker 5>I think what is also very attractive about HBO is

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<v Speaker 5>its advertising and the space of the categories that it's

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<v Speaker 5>in where it has decent share about five four percent

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<v Speaker 5>in healthcare, which is the largest category where OTT is

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<v Speaker 5>the largest channel for healthcare, and Netflix doesn't have that

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<v Speaker 5>much exposure there. So I think that is a plus

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<v Speaker 5>for them. As far as like Warnerbug Sorry, Paramount wanting

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<v Speaker 5>the other assets, I think it goes kind of goes

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<v Speaker 5>back with like they want to get what they can get,

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<v Speaker 5>so they can see how they can manage to figure

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<v Speaker 5>out how to grow their own business, right, So I

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<v Speaker 5>think that's why they're willing to take everything rather than

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<v Speaker 5>sort of curate what like the way Netflix is.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, the Netflix stock is down ten percent this

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<v Speaker 2>year and twelve percent over the trailing twelve months. Is

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<v Speaker 2>that kind of the market saying, hey, you know, I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not sure we want you guys to buy this thing.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, it also has done very well in the past.

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<v Speaker 5>It might be, or maybe it's just simply the uncertainty

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<v Speaker 5>of whether, even if they get the deal, if they'll

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<v Speaker 5>be able to get through antitrust, you know, the FTC,

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<v Speaker 5>will there be any issues getting the deal through? So

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<v Speaker 5>I feel like it's more about that and maybe just

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<v Speaker 5>the general idea that across streaming time spent is down,

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<v Speaker 5>and it goes back to what I said about distractions

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<v Speaker 5>for the consumer from short form video and other types

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<v Speaker 5>of technology that's taking time. So I think it might

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<v Speaker 5>be that sort of the deal with regulation and then

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<v Speaker 5>just sort of what's happening in streaming and the cost

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<v Speaker 5>of streaming. To get the content that gets the most

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<v Speaker 5>the highest audience costs a lot of money, right, and

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<v Speaker 5>they have a lot of competitors, including the microdramas that

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<v Speaker 5>you know have been growing very rapidly.

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<v Speaker 1>Stay with us.

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<v Speaker 3>More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

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<v Speaker 2>Lots of earnings kind of get you know, overshadowed a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit by on the news flow coming out of Davilas.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, one of the big American companies that

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<v Speaker 2>we like to follow, General Electric, reported some numbers.

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<v Speaker 3>A little bit disappointed. I thought they were pretty good.

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<v Speaker 2>But the stock's down about five and a half percent today,

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<v Speaker 2>and the stock is up over the tre past twelve months,

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<v Speaker 2>up about sixty percent sixty zero, So maybe given back

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit there. But let's break it down here.

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<v Speaker 2>What's going on with our friends at GE. SID Philip Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 2>chief correspondent covers Global Aviation for Bloomberg News. SID talk

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<v Speaker 2>to us about GE. What's going on with that story?

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<v Speaker 2>They report its earnings?

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, so GE's actually they reported better than expected results.

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<v Speaker 7>In the fourth quarter. But unfortunately for the company, the

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<v Speaker 7>shareholders and the investors were expecting a much higher expectation

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<v Speaker 7>for the full yer next year this year, and so

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<v Speaker 7>the fullier outlook has underwhelmed investors, which is why the

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<v Speaker 7>share stumbled. And so they said that earnings will be

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<v Speaker 7>seven ten to seven forty a share, and that sort

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<v Speaker 7>of compares with about seven to ten which is what

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<v Speaker 7>the analyst expected. But that's still sort of they're talking

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<v Speaker 7>about how there's going to be low double digit percentage

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<v Speaker 7>of revenue growth, and that sort of after the sort

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<v Speaker 7>of daring performance that they've had over the last year

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<v Speaker 7>year and a half, that that sort of comes up

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<v Speaker 7>as a break for the stock.

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<v Speaker 2>What I like about GE or just fascinating watching the

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<v Speaker 2>GE story over the past twenty years. They've dramatically slimmed

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<v Speaker 2>down the company. They were just jillions of different businesses,

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<v Speaker 2>including one of the biggest financial services companies in the world.

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<v Speaker 3>They've slimmed that down to really a couple sectors.

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<v Speaker 2>Here, commercial engines and services number one, and then defense

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<v Speaker 2>and propulsion number two.

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<v Speaker 3>What's the play, Here's where's the growth for this company?

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, so Larry Culp has sort of focused the company

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<v Speaker 7>on its core aerospace business, and aerospace has sort of

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<v Speaker 7>become what GE is and that's actually a really good

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<v Speaker 7>business for the company. I mean they have a large

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<v Speaker 7>sort of share of the narrow body marketplace.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean they make any engines.

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, make engines with CFM, which is the biggest narrowbody

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<v Speaker 7>engine provider. They also make all the engines for Boeing's

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<v Speaker 7>white body aircraft. So they've got a big aerospace division

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<v Speaker 7>and that's sort of a business that continues to generate

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<v Speaker 7>revenue as you get those aircraft. These engines come in

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<v Speaker 7>for servicing and they come in for sort of overhauls.

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<v Speaker 7>That sort of keeps the revenue going. And so that's

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<v Speaker 7>where Culpus focused on. He's sort of focused on cutting

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<v Speaker 7>costs and as well as ramping up their aftermarket business

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<v Speaker 7>as well as their like their maintenance and repair operation,

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<v Speaker 7>and that's been one of the key businesses that they've

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<v Speaker 7>been growing. They've also been growing their defense business, and

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<v Speaker 7>I mean they're sort of getting a big share of

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<v Speaker 7>the overall defense by it. I mean that business may

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<v Speaker 7>come up against some investor resistance because of trump recent

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<v Speaker 7>announcements about gapping dividends and capping share.

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<v Speaker 2>By a back right, yeah, because I don't think of

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<v Speaker 2>G as a defense contractor like a Lockheed Martin or

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<v Speaker 2>something like that.

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<v Speaker 7>But they're not a defense prime. But they are a

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<v Speaker 7>major supplier to the defense industry.

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<v Speaker 2>On the engine side, on the jet engine side. Do

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<v Speaker 2>they sell to both Boeing and Airbus.

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<v Speaker 7>They sell to Airbus through CFM, which is their joint

0:10:21.440 --> 0:10:25.400
<v Speaker 7>venture with Saffron Ah, and so they about seventy five

0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:28.160
<v Speaker 7>percent of the overall narrow body market. So that's a

0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:29.520
<v Speaker 7>big percentage of the market.

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<v Speaker 3>That's awesome.

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<v Speaker 2>So, I mean, I always feel good seeing a GE

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<v Speaker 2>engine hanging on a wing.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, you feel like you're in good shape there.

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<v Speaker 2>Talk to us about just you know, we follow Boeing

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<v Speaker 2>very closely, and they've had their problems with the production,

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<v Speaker 2>as has Airbus. I mean, the whole supply chain for

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<v Speaker 2>aerospace and building these big jet engines. It's kind of

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<v Speaker 2>been tough on a global scale. What does G say

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<v Speaker 2>to say about that?

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<v Speaker 7>So, I mean that that's been one of the I mean,

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<v Speaker 7>Airbus famously called out G a couple of months ago,

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<v Speaker 7>saying that they weren't producing engine CFM wasn't producing engines

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<v Speaker 7>fast enough, and that's been a major sort of bottleneck

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<v Speaker 7>for the aviation industry as they come out of the pandemic.

0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:06.640
<v Speaker 7>I mean they've been struggling since the pandemic to actually

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<v Speaker 7>ramp up production. I mean air Bus had to cut

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<v Speaker 7>its annual outlook in December and they just about made

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<v Speaker 7>their target. And so we've seen the airspace the aerospace

0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:21.080
<v Speaker 7>businesses talking about sort of growth and then having to

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<v Speaker 7>come up against the reality of a supply chain and

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<v Speaker 7>the supply chain being severely constrained. At the same time,

0:11:27.720 --> 0:11:31.800
<v Speaker 7>all the suppliers, especially GE, RTX and others have been

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<v Speaker 7>focusing on maximizing their profitability and making sure that while

0:11:36.200 --> 0:11:38.840
<v Speaker 7>they grow and while they scale up their businesses, they

0:11:39.000 --> 0:11:40.920
<v Speaker 7>don't do that at the cost of profitability. And that

0:11:41.000 --> 0:11:46.520
<v Speaker 7>sort of runs into the airframers their ambition of ramping

0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:49.200
<v Speaker 7>up production so they won't growth at any cost, and

0:11:49.559 --> 0:11:52.040
<v Speaker 7>the suppliers are saying, hey, we will grow, but it

0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:53.200
<v Speaker 7>has to be profitable for us.

0:11:53.320 --> 0:11:55.920
<v Speaker 2>One of the things we've heard from Bowing is it's

0:11:56.040 --> 0:11:59.800
<v Speaker 2>just hard to find employees. This isn't like making a car.

0:12:00.120 --> 0:12:02.640
<v Speaker 2>You got to be really really skilled.

0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:04.360
<v Speaker 3>Does GE have that same issue?

0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:07.240
<v Speaker 7>It does, and that's the same issue that and it's

0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:10.760
<v Speaker 7>not just GE but also supplies the GEM. The problem

0:12:10.840 --> 0:12:14.280
<v Speaker 7>with the aerospace supply chain is that it's so intertwined

0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:17.040
<v Speaker 7>that you need every single path to build those parts

0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:19.640
<v Speaker 7>that you actually supply to Boeing and Airbus, and so

0:12:19.840 --> 0:12:22.360
<v Speaker 7>if one part's missing, then you can't actually put together

0:12:22.360 --> 0:12:25.120
<v Speaker 7>a net engine that goes onto a plane. And so

0:12:25.440 --> 0:12:29.560
<v Speaker 7>for the aerospace industry, hiring has been a major challenge,

0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:31.760
<v Speaker 7>and that's been something that they've been doing and they've

0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:33.679
<v Speaker 7>been trying to work on for the last couple of years.

0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:35.720
<v Speaker 7>But I don't think they're out of the woods yet.

0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:39.800
<v Speaker 3>Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.

0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:47.440
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live

0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.920
<v Speaker 1>weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto

0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:54.080
<v Speaker 1>with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you

0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:57.480
<v Speaker 1>get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

0:12:57.920 --> 0:12:59.240
<v Speaker 3>What a couple of three days.

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.880
<v Speaker 2>And Davos kind of went into the week thinking maybe

0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:05.000
<v Speaker 2>we talked about big, big items like AI.

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:09.360
<v Speaker 3>Well it all came down to Terrace Greenland and boy,

0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:11.280
<v Speaker 3>we've had a bumpy ride this week. So we try

0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:12.559
<v Speaker 3>to forget what's going on there.

0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:14.839
<v Speaker 2>Gota Maconda, he does his stuff for living, his a

0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:17.200
<v Speaker 2>lecture at the Yale School of Management. He's a Bloomberg

0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:18.520
<v Speaker 2>opinion contributor.

0:13:19.600 --> 0:13:20.800
<v Speaker 3>Got them, you know.

0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:23.880
<v Speaker 2>I guess this is a little bit of President Trump

0:13:23.960 --> 0:13:26.400
<v Speaker 2>starting off the week with some very big rhetoric and

0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:29.040
<v Speaker 2>then backing off a little bit. That's at least how

0:13:29.040 --> 0:13:33.000
<v Speaker 2>the markets have been kind of gauging it here. Has

0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:35.600
<v Speaker 2>there been any long term impact positive ord negative?

0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:35.720
<v Speaker 5>Here?

0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:37.480
<v Speaker 3>From what's happened the last several days.

0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:41.560
<v Speaker 4>There's been significant long term impact, and it's sadly all negative.

0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:46.040
<v Speaker 4>So let's just break this out. The framework that the

0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:49.280
<v Speaker 4>Trump administration is saying they have gotten. And it's to

0:13:49.320 --> 0:13:52.040
<v Speaker 4>be clear, it's not clear they have actually gotten it,

0:13:52.080 --> 0:13:54.520
<v Speaker 4>because the Europeans don't seem to be agreeing with that statement.

0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:57.040
<v Speaker 4>But let's say the Trump administration got everything they said

0:13:57.040 --> 0:13:59.720
<v Speaker 4>They got. Everything they said they got they could have

0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:02.559
<v Speaker 4>gotten with a phone call six months ago. Right like

0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:04.920
<v Speaker 4>if we had told the Danes we want to put

0:14:04.960 --> 0:14:07.560
<v Speaker 4>more bases in Greenland, we want more mineral rights in Greenland.

0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:09.360
<v Speaker 4>We want you to you know, do more to keep

0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:12.240
<v Speaker 4>the Chinese out of Greenland. Whatever, that means they would

0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:16.360
<v Speaker 4>have said, awesome, we love the idea of you doing that.

0:14:16.520 --> 0:14:19.560
<v Speaker 4>So there's no so like everything they got was on

0:14:19.640 --> 0:14:24.680
<v Speaker 4>the table just for the asking. The downside is we

0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:28.000
<v Speaker 4>have now reached a situation where the Prime Minister of Canada,

0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:32.160
<v Speaker 4>the United States is oldest, best, and most important ally

0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:36.080
<v Speaker 4>is saying that the United States is a predator that

0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:39.200
<v Speaker 4>is taking advantage of other countries, and that he needs

0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:43.480
<v Speaker 4>to make allies alliances with other countries, including China, judging

0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:48.640
<v Speaker 4>by his actions to protect himself from the United States. Like,

0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:52.200
<v Speaker 4>it's almost impossible to overstate the level of the damage there.

0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:58.120
<v Speaker 4>If the United States had somehow managed to extract ownership

0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:04.440
<v Speaker 4>of Greenland, that would not have been even close to

0:15:04.520 --> 0:15:08.400
<v Speaker 4>being worth destroying the trust that the United States has

0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:12.160
<v Speaker 4>built up with pretty much every other developed country in

0:15:12.200 --> 0:15:16.800
<v Speaker 4>the world over the course of more than a century.

0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:19.320
<v Speaker 6>You go ahead, no, no, no, So this trust that

0:15:19.360 --> 0:15:21.200
<v Speaker 6>the United States has built up, is it the trust

0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:24.960
<v Speaker 6>that the White House is now put you know, putting

0:15:24.960 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 6>at risk or this particular White House, I should say,

0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:31.280
<v Speaker 6>versus the US government overall, because in three years time,

0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:33.920
<v Speaker 6>in eight years time, you know, we could have a

0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:37.720
<v Speaker 6>very different government in charge, and do we go back

0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 6>to the old ways.

0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:42.280
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think it started with this administration. And if

0:15:42.280 --> 0:15:44.720
<v Speaker 4>it had, and if it we were just talking about

0:15:44.760 --> 0:15:46.920
<v Speaker 4>one Trump administration, it would have been just that. And

0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:48.720
<v Speaker 4>then I think that's exactly what would happened. We would

0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:51.480
<v Speaker 4>have reset the old ways and everybody would have said, Look,

0:15:51.520 --> 0:15:53.240
<v Speaker 4>every country has a hiccop once in a while.

0:15:53.120 --> 0:15:53.800
<v Speaker 3>These things happen.

0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:58.280
<v Speaker 4>But now you will hear Europeans say straight up that

0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:01.320
<v Speaker 4>Trump is a reflection of some thing deep about what's

0:16:01.360 --> 0:16:04.800
<v Speaker 4>happening in the United States right now. That is, it

0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:06.640
<v Speaker 4>is not just the case that they do not trust

0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:09.880
<v Speaker 4>the Trump administration. It is they do not trust the

0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:14.000
<v Speaker 4>American public to not keep electing people like the Trump administration,

0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:18.360
<v Speaker 4>and that creates a completely different set of constraints and circumstances.

0:16:19.000 --> 0:16:22.600
<v Speaker 2>Are you surprised, I guess going down that thread Gotham

0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:26.560
<v Speaker 2>that we haven't heard really anything from members of Congress

0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:29.960
<v Speaker 2>over the past week or were the last year.

0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:33.160
<v Speaker 4>Even I wish I could say I was, but but

0:16:33.240 --> 0:16:37.040
<v Speaker 4>I'm not. And I think what's really striking is even

0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 4>members of Congress who said that they are who are

0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:43.600
<v Speaker 4>not running for reelection, are still unwilling to criticize the

0:16:43.640 --> 0:16:46.440
<v Speaker 4>president directly with you know, like a tiny handful of exceptions,

0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:49.160
<v Speaker 4>but in the Revolican party. So even Fon Tillas, who's like,

0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:52.040
<v Speaker 4>I'm out right, like he said, i am not running

0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:53.800
<v Speaker 4>for reelection because I want to be able to speak

0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:56.960
<v Speaker 4>truth to Trump. The president Trump is saying, Hey, I

0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:59.400
<v Speaker 4>don't actually have any criticisms as the president. It's all

0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:02.320
<v Speaker 4>about his advisors. And just just be clear, like his

0:17:02.360 --> 0:17:05.240
<v Speaker 4>advisors are not the people pushing the Greenland on this.

0:17:06.280 --> 0:17:08.280
<v Speaker 4>You know, that appears to be sort of from within

0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:10.919
<v Speaker 4>the president, the from within the president's own head. And

0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:14.879
<v Speaker 4>so I'm not surprised, both because there's you know, his

0:17:14.920 --> 0:17:17.119
<v Speaker 4>control of the Republican Party's total and people want to

0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:20.359
<v Speaker 4>get re elected. But more than that, I think people

0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:23.600
<v Speaker 4>are scared, right Like, if you stand up to the president,

0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:27.000
<v Speaker 4>if you are seen as his enemy, you are deluged

0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:30.800
<v Speaker 4>by death threats and you know, things that are not

0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.240
<v Speaker 4>a normal part of American politics. In some sense, I

0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:36.840
<v Speaker 4>guess you could say that January sixth worked because there

0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:38.760
<v Speaker 4>are quite a few Republicans who are in fear for

0:17:38.800 --> 0:17:41.479
<v Speaker 4>their lives, not just their puular seats.

0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:46.080
<v Speaker 6>So got them, you know, Moving forward, with all of this,

0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:48.840
<v Speaker 6>I'm curious, you know, you mentioned Mark Carney and the

0:17:48.840 --> 0:17:51.479
<v Speaker 6>speech that he gave declaring there's a new world order here,

0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:55.160
<v Speaker 6>the old world order has ruptured. How does Europe respond

0:17:55.200 --> 0:17:59.040
<v Speaker 6>to this moment? Because they seem as disorganized and frankly

0:17:59.080 --> 0:18:01.600
<v Speaker 6>as weak as ever, and you know, when President Trump

0:18:01.680 --> 0:18:04.359
<v Speaker 6>pointed them as weak, it's hard to see how they

0:18:04.400 --> 0:18:06.920
<v Speaker 6>can come to agreement on how to stand up to him.

0:18:07.280 --> 0:18:11.600
<v Speaker 4>So so I mean, I would never I would never

0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:14.800
<v Speaker 4>underestimate the Europeans ability to fold under pressure. And I

0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:17.720
<v Speaker 4>like that is that, I mean that is but I

0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:20.560
<v Speaker 4>think first as you did see like they started to

0:18:20.600 --> 0:18:23.720
<v Speaker 4>put troops into Greenland, right, like that is not a

0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:26.520
<v Speaker 4>minor signal, right, I mean, so there's a lot of

0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:28.679
<v Speaker 4>like we are really starting to push back in that

0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:30.280
<v Speaker 4>way in a way that we hadn't seen before. And

0:18:30.320 --> 0:18:32.919
<v Speaker 4>I think if it had actually come down to an

0:18:32.920 --> 0:18:36.720
<v Speaker 4>American use of force, that has a clarifying right, you know,

0:18:36.760 --> 0:18:39.960
<v Speaker 4>as Oscar walt to the prospect of hanging clarifies the mind, right,

0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:43.640
<v Speaker 4>that I think would have solidified the Europeans together. And second,

0:18:43.680 --> 0:18:46.160
<v Speaker 4>the few gestures they did make, I mean it's very clear,

0:18:46.240 --> 0:18:49.240
<v Speaker 4>right the Trump administration has backed down, right. They made

0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:51.320
<v Speaker 4>lots of threats, they made lots of bluster, they got

0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:52.760
<v Speaker 4>nothing in their declaring victory.

0:18:52.760 --> 0:18:53.480
<v Speaker 3>That is a back down.

0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:56.520
<v Speaker 4>So they are they were backing down from from your

0:18:56.840 --> 0:19:00.119
<v Speaker 4>even what little counter push the Europeans did. But I

0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:02.560
<v Speaker 4>think what you will see is you'll start to see

0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:07.119
<v Speaker 4>real pushback on American companies, right because at this you know,

0:19:07.920 --> 0:19:11.440
<v Speaker 4>no European country could seriously look at American defense contractors

0:19:11.440 --> 0:19:14.520
<v Speaker 4>a trustworthy about the purchaser, right, Like Microsoft is already

0:19:14.520 --> 0:19:16.960
<v Speaker 4>facing pressure from Europeans because there's some things that it did.

0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:22.520
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

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0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:30.199
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0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:37.439
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