WEBVTT - The State of the 2026 AI Trade 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:13.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:17.920 Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:21.240 on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:24.880 Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:25.280 --> 0:00:27.040 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:29.080 One of the things we're going to do is talk 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:33.360 about retirement planning. Marta Norton is exquisite out of Chicago. 0:00:33.760 --> 0:00:34.639 She's with Empower. 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:38.080 I should say that Empower handles the retirement programs of 0:00:38.080 --> 0:00:38.800 Bloomberg LP. 0:00:40.680 --> 0:00:42.760 Do you know I have a retirement program, so. 0:00:42.920 --> 0:00:45.080 I can't retire now, just keeping training. 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:47.680 I've been in the triple leveraged all cash fund with 0:00:47.760 --> 0:00:51.440 Empower forever, joining us Marta and Norton. Marta, I read 0:00:51.520 --> 0:00:53.680 your research note and then I look at the retirement 0:00:53.680 --> 0:00:57.200 planning of Empower and Empower saying, you know what, if 0:00:57.200 --> 0:01:01.520 you really believe in equities, front load you retirement contribution 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:02.640 this year. 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:05.120 Is that a good strategy for you? Are you so 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:06.920 bullish that. 0:01:08.319 --> 0:01:10.959 You want to tell people, don't do your retirement contribution 0:01:11.040 --> 0:01:14.240 over twelve months, load the boat the first ninety days. 0:01:14.880 --> 0:01:17.240 Of course, the argument for doing that is that then 0:01:17.280 --> 0:01:20.360 you capture with your contribution all the gains over the 0:01:20.400 --> 0:01:22.560 course of the year. And I think when we take 0:01:22.600 --> 0:01:25.759 a look at what to expect in twenty twenty six, 0:01:26.280 --> 0:01:29.360 a lot of the bulk case comes down to what 0:01:29.400 --> 0:01:32.319 we expect from earnings, and that relates, of course to 0:01:32.360 --> 0:01:36.440 the mag seven, which are expected to deliver something along 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:38.479 the lines of what we saw in twenty twenty five. 0:01:38.880 --> 0:01:42.279 But then also this broadening out story for the broader market, 0:01:42.319 --> 0:01:44.360 So to the extent that we do see that come 0:01:44.400 --> 0:01:48.840 to fruition, that can be a benefit of front loading 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:51.000 that contribution. But what I would also add is if 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:53.680 you're expecting a year of volatility, which is I think 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:56.760 something that we could anticipate with the AI narrative and 0:01:56.800 --> 0:01:59.600 the moments of doubt that occur with that, taking advantage 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:02.480 of the utility dollar cost averaging in that can also 0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:03.640 be a viable path. 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:06.279 So you have two good choices there, Marty. 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:09.720 Do we have a rotation going on maybe late last 0:02:09.800 --> 0:02:11.640 year in this market or is it still going to 0:02:11.639 --> 0:02:13.480 be an AI driven twenty twenty six. 0:02:14.280 --> 0:02:15.160 Yeah, this is what. 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:17.880 I am wrestling with a great deal, and I think 0:02:17.919 --> 0:02:20.240 there are two major arguments that people are pointing to 0:02:20.360 --> 0:02:23.800 when they talk about this rotation away from tech, away 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:27.160 from AI, they point to valuations and they point to earnings. 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:30.520 I think that second second argument is a lot stronger 0:02:30.560 --> 0:02:31.600 than the first argument. 0:02:31.639 --> 0:02:33.600 When we look at valuations, we're. 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:36.600 Not just looking at them relative sector to one another. 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:38.920 We're looking at them relative to their own history. And 0:02:38.960 --> 0:02:41.200 on that count, I would actually argue that some of 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:43.840 the mag seven have gotten a bit cheaper. And when 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:48.800 we look outside that subset, if you're looking at consumer staples, 0:02:48.840 --> 0:02:51.600 if you're looking at utilities, if you're looking at some 0:02:51.639 --> 0:02:54.359 of these other areas of the market, they're actually pretty pricey. 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:00.600 Are more important than ever one could argue. So we 0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:02.600 had some really good earnings in twenty twenty five, you 0:03:02.600 --> 0:03:05.840 expect earnings to continue strong enough in twenty six to 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:06.760 support this market. 0:03:08.040 --> 0:03:10.679 I think that is a reasonable expectation. I think there's 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:15.360 a few things that are coming to head there on 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:18.280 the AI front. I think we can continue to see 0:03:18.280 --> 0:03:20.800 some of that momentum from the MAG seven, from the 0:03:20.840 --> 0:03:24.000 AI names. I think when we're looking at the broader market, 0:03:24.160 --> 0:03:26.480 you have a few tail wins to take advantage of. 0:03:26.560 --> 0:03:30.120 You have the fiscal stimulus, you have the monetary stimulus. 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:32.040 You have what some folks are. 0:03:31.919 --> 0:03:35.360 Expecting to be kind of the incremental implementation of AI. 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:37.640 This one i'm a little bit more allier of. I 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:40.200 think it will take more time to really see a 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.920 massive earnings boost from AI implementation, but maybe on the 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:46.680 margin that's another benefit. So I guess as much as 0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:49.440 I want to be skeptical on the earnings front, I 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:52.880 think it's hard to find a really negative case to 0:03:52.880 --> 0:03:55.800 look at from a corporate earnings perspective, Marta. 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:58.800 The retirement planning game, going back to the risk of 0:03:58.880 --> 0:04:04.120 nineteen seventy four or has been really difficult for a 0:04:04.160 --> 0:04:07.119 lot of people. How many people, I mean, within all 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:10.920 the expertise of empower and all the macroeconomics and the 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:14.320 calls that you're making, how many people are behind? What 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:18.719 percentage of America is behind in their retirement. 0:04:19.520 --> 0:04:22.640 Well, there's a few different ways to look at this. 0:04:22.760 --> 0:04:26.400 When we take a look at access to retirement portfolios, 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:29.560 that access has improved meaningfully. I think there's numbers that 0:04:29.600 --> 0:04:33.920 show of the private companies out there, we have about seventy. 0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:35.279 Percent offering for one case. 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:40.200 When we look at the actual contributions, we're are seeing 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:43.640 decent savings rates. So experts recommend somewhere between twelve and 0:04:43.680 --> 0:04:46.680 fifteen percent saving for retirement. When we look at what 0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:50.080 numbers we saw in twenty twenty five, we see numbers 0:04:50.120 --> 0:04:52.920 that kind of rival that level. I think the big 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:55.800 question is making sure that folks are engaged. When people 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:58.719 get engaged with our retirement accounts, when they're paying attention, 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:01.560 that's when you start to see the contributions take up. 0:05:01.839 --> 0:05:04.440 When they're doing auto and roll features, when they're doing 0:05:04.480 --> 0:05:06.880 auto escalate features, that's when you start to see real 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:10.400 improved outcomes for retirement. And there's still agains to be 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:10.880 made there. 0:05:11.080 --> 0:05:13.359 What is an auto escalator feature? 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:19.440 So the idea that every year your contribution automatically increases, 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:21.039 so you don't have to go in and make an 0:05:21.120 --> 0:05:24.840 active decision. You press a button and that occurs automatically 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:25.200 for you. 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:26.960 Nice should try that. 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:29.640 I don't know if I have that act great app 0:05:29.720 --> 0:05:32.479 by the way and empower Oh good, yeah, it works 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:32.719 for me. 0:05:33.080 --> 0:05:33.960 I know what I'm doing. 0:05:34.560 --> 0:05:37.839 So for how about the younger folks? Are the younger 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:41.320 folks saving and entering. 0:05:41.160 --> 0:05:43.280 Into opting into four to one k's. 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:45.480 And savings plans at a rate we'd like to see 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:47.159 how's it look for the younger folks. 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:51.080 So when we look at account balances, we're seeing, say, 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:53.919 if you're in your twenties, you're seeing an account balance 0:05:53.960 --> 0:05:57.120 of somewhere around one hundred thousand. If you're looking later 0:05:57.160 --> 0:05:59.920 in life, you're seeing account balances of somewhere around six hundred. 0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:03.359 So we are seeing engagement from the younger folks. I 0:06:03.360 --> 0:06:06.479 think this is always something that requires a lot of 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:10.360 education with workforces. When folks are entering the workforce, maybe 0:06:10.400 --> 0:06:13.280 they're working on that Robinhood account, but they're not necessarily 0:06:13.320 --> 0:06:15.960 thinking out decades and what retirement could look like. So 0:06:16.040 --> 0:06:20.120 making sure that companies are engaging with their employees and 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:22.680 making the case because that's of course. You know what 0:06:22.720 --> 0:06:26.840 Warren Buffett talks about compounding being a snowball rolling down 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:29.560 a hill. It can have such a profound impact on 0:06:29.640 --> 0:06:30.960 people's ultimate outcomes. 0:06:31.040 --> 0:06:34.919 Well, mister Buffet and mister Bunger also talk about don't 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:35.920 over diversify. 0:06:36.080 --> 0:06:38.520 What's a trend you see it in power? 0:06:38.839 --> 0:06:42.280 Given the macroeconomics, given a three year or four year 0:06:42.360 --> 0:06:46.080 equity post COVID boom, are we too diversified? Are we 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:49.359 in too many fancy things other than doing basic, block 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:50.800 and tackle investing. 0:06:51.920 --> 0:06:54.479 Yeah, I think at this point what we're seeing is 0:06:54.560 --> 0:06:58.039 still I mean in terms of asset classes. When you 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:00.640 look at managed accounts for example, which is you know, 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:03.320 a single solution that has a range of asset classes 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:05.600 within it and investors make one choice to move into 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:10.640 that portfolio, you do see a pretty ample spread across 0:07:11.240 --> 0:07:16.440 US non US fixed income. It's not overly exotic, and 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:18.440 you have seen a real benefit And I think this 0:07:18.600 --> 0:07:20.920 was one of the things that came into question last year. 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:24.360 Does something like the sixty forty deliver and you did 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:27.280 see a real benefit from that style of investing, So 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:29.280 at least kind of spreading beyond the S and P 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:32.200 five hundred, I think that is something that we've seen 0:07:32.280 --> 0:07:35.640 some value to Now. Now whether every single NICHE asset 0:07:35.680 --> 0:07:39.000 class adds value to the same degree, that's another question. 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:39.720 Marta, Thank you so much. 0:07:39.760 --> 0:07:44.520 More Empower Stay with us more from Bloomberg Surveillance coming 0:07:44.600 --> 0:07:45.560 up after this. 0:07:52.840 --> 0:07:56.400 You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live 0:07:56.480 --> 0:07:59.880 weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on app, 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:03.360 CarPlay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business Up, or 0:08:03.520 --> 0:08:05.000 watch us live on YouTube. 0:08:05.080 --> 0:08:07.280 This is a special moment for Bloomberg Surveillance. 0:08:07.320 --> 0:08:11.040 We'd love to see our guests over the years have 0:08:11.160 --> 0:08:12.160 a conviction. 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:14.960 Have a belief. Sometimes they're wrong. Has Dan and Ives 0:08:14.960 --> 0:08:15.600 ever been wrong? 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:16.360 Oh? 0:08:16.560 --> 0:08:18.200 You know, I thought you think there was a a 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:21.920 while back there. But he's been right enough where today 0:08:22.320 --> 0:08:26.000 he will do something very cool. I've enjoyed this wonderful 0:08:26.040 --> 0:08:29.880 privilege to sit with Ken Pruitt and wants Charlie Pellett 0:08:30.200 --> 0:08:33.360 ring the bell of the New York Stock Exchange. Mister Ives, 0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:36.280 I believe will open trading of the New York Stock 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:41.760 Exchange today and celebration of the success of the ives 0:08:41.880 --> 0:08:43.200 ETF It's brought. 0:08:43.000 --> 0:08:47.360 In a few few do balloons over the recent weeks. 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:50.320 Dan Ives joins us from Wedbush and celebration of nine 0:08:50.320 --> 0:08:53.000 point thirty and this morning, Dan, what does it feel 0:08:53.080 --> 0:08:55.920 like to join Snoop Dogg and kiss with the I 0:08:55.920 --> 0:08:57.000 don't know his his? 0:08:58.160 --> 0:09:00.679 You know? To these fancy people on the bell? What 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:02.319 are you going to dress appropriately? 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:05.760 I mean, I'm look I addressed appropriately? 0:09:05.920 --> 0:09:07.960 Look I mean to look You're It's part of history, 0:09:08.040 --> 0:09:11.120 right h What the New York Stock Machines represents in 0:09:11.240 --> 0:09:14.320 terms of those walls and obviously the success that we've 0:09:14.360 --> 0:09:17.240 had with odds, it's not just me, it's you know, 0:09:17.320 --> 0:09:19.880 it's the team, but it's the broad belief that investments 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:22.880 have had in us in this AI revolution. So it's 0:09:22.920 --> 0:09:25.240 so exciting to be a part of history this morning. 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:29.400 Is your ETF actively managed? Is it passive? 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:33.360 Has there been a strategic IVES call that's brought in 0:09:33.640 --> 0:09:34.520 a few dollars? 0:09:35.480 --> 0:09:35.760 Yeah? 0:09:35.800 --> 0:09:37.480 Look, I mean this is all based on the ives 0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:39.000 AI thirty, which is. 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:41.720 Our you know, these are our AI thirty, are thirty 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:45.040 winners in the AI Revolution, all based on our research 0:09:45.160 --> 0:09:48.080 four times a year. You know, we basically switch in 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:51.520 out who I believe is more relevant less relevant. And 0:09:51.640 --> 0:09:54.160 you know, the last six months and getting to a billion, 0:09:54.840 --> 0:09:59.160 it's been I think a validation as investors are trying 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:02.640 to find how do you play the AI Revolution? 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:06.360 And I'm happy about the comblems and on and. 0:10:06.360 --> 0:10:08.560 Just for you know, for this fund here the top 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:10.960 fund holdings is the names that Dan's been talking about 0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:16.040 for a long time in video, Micron Technologies, Taiwan Semiconductor, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:18.680 So the names that Dan's been recommending for a long time. 0:10:18.920 --> 0:10:19.960 Dan speaking of AI. 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:23.280 We know you just returned from Las Vegas the Consumer 0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:28.160 Electronics Show. I'm hearing a lot about physical AI. I 0:10:28.200 --> 0:10:32.360 heard that from mister Wang Jensen Wong at Uh in video. 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.280 What is physical AI and what are the opportunities there? 0:10:36.000 --> 0:10:39.600 Yeah, look, well physical AI, it's really about autonomous robotic. 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:41.400 I mean this is now. 0:10:41.679 --> 0:10:45.000 What I view is the consumer AI revolution starts in 0:10:45.080 --> 0:10:47.800 terms of physical app and I think what you saw 0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:50.359 with in video, they're weighing out and to end's platform 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:53.280 on autonomous We've talked about It's why we're so bulletr 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:57.840 and Tatsa, even robotaxes and the autonomous sort of vision there. 0:10:58.240 --> 0:11:01.640 But this is this is the next stiege of AI. 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:05.679 But it's all fueled by the godfather of AI Jensen 0:11:05.760 --> 0:11:06.240 the video. 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:11.600 I look Dan and Wells Fargo reducing their overweight. They 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:15.280 stay overweight on Microsoft from whatever it was down to 0:11:15.320 --> 0:11:20.800 six sixty five down the income statement into the earning season. 0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:23.800 Dan eyes with you with a six twenty five outperformer 0:11:23.840 --> 0:11:28.640 in Microsoft. Where and the financial statements is the important 0:11:28.679 --> 0:11:31.719 point for Microsoft earnings? 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:34.720 I mean, I think it's about Azure and cloud and growth. 0:11:34.960 --> 0:11:37.839 I had to put in the context. I mean, you're 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:41.560 talking about the highest margin business that I believe the 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:45.240 streets under estimating probably by ten to fifteen percent this year. 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:48.480 And you're talking about I think the streets all the 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:53.560 underestimating about twenty five billion of incremental growth from a 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:58.319 cash book perspective, we're talking about fifteen billion that. 0:11:58.120 --> 0:12:01.400 I don't think is factor industry models from Microsoft. 0:12:01.120 --> 0:12:04.640 Right, Well, they're modeling fifteen percent revenue growth. So are 0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:09.599 you saying down the income statement is the underestimation of Microsoft? 0:12:10.559 --> 0:12:13.600 Yeah, I think I think it's underestimated from a growth 0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:17.120 perstructive on cloud, underestimated in terms that we say on 0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:17.880 cask FOWK. 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:20.880 And the reality is the enterprise AI revolution. 0:12:21.040 --> 0:12:24.080 It all starts in Redmond and Thedella, and industry is 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.680 underestimating what this means from Microsoft. 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:28.280 Dan. 0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:30.959 One of the things I heard from cees and and 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:35.800 Video they launched this Alpha Mayo platform. Tell us what 0:12:35.920 --> 0:12:38.280 this is because this gets a little scary for some people. 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.719 I think, Yeah, I mean, like you could say it's 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:45.800 reasoning or really AI needs autonomous. It's an end to 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:50.880 end platform that in Video is basically laying out as 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:56.880 their answer for autonomous. It's really something that ultimately better 0:12:56.960 --> 0:13:01.280 than the human driver. And I view it is just 0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:04.480 like what Taska was doing on robo taxes, just like 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:07.400 what we're seeing on autonomous Nvidia is going to be 0:13:07.440 --> 0:13:10.679 a supplier from a chip perspective, but also they're. 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:12.760 Going to play an ant end platform play as well. 0:13:13.120 --> 0:13:16.360 Dan ives with us this morning with webbush a celebration, 0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:19.320 and just under one hour he will stand at the 0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:23.160 New York Stock Exchange with his wonderful etf It's really 0:13:23.160 --> 0:13:25.600 done well, and the vectors from his garbman would say 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:28.319 from the lower left to the upper right as. 0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:30.840 Well, Dan, I want to switch to Apple. I was 0:13:30.880 --> 0:13:32.680 just in Paris and I'd never been. 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:36.040 To the Tuileries, to the Museum Rangerie it's called, which 0:13:36.080 --> 0:13:40.840 is the those lovely simple quiet Monet paintings of the 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:46.160 water lilies, sterile quiet, and I witnessed their dan Ives 0:13:46.160 --> 0:13:51.120 and I thought of you packed tourists, many many from 0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:57.199 the Pacific Rim, holding Apple iPhones in their hands, taking photos, 0:13:57.240 --> 0:14:01.560 taking selfies, doing YouTube bes stuff in front of the 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:05.480 quiet of Claude Monet of eighteen ninety, his gift to the. 0:14:05.480 --> 0:14:07.520 Nation at World War One. 0:14:08.120 --> 0:14:12.679 Explain Dan Ives, what I witnessed where are we in 0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:16.920 five years with the use of the iPhone. 0:14:17.480 --> 0:14:19.840 Look, and I think it's all about the AI coming 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:21.600 to the Apple ecosystem. 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:23.000 We talk about this is going to be the year 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:24.200 AI for Apple. 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:27.240 I mean, to my what one point five billion iPhones 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:31.080 in the world, I mean two point four billion iOS devices. 0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:34.720 It's about you when you look at this next stage 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:36.920 for Apple, it's going to be the most important stage 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:40.200 I think, going to the AI revolution and they monetize 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:41.479 that install based. 0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:42.680 That's going to be front and summer. 0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:46.840 And it's why one of our top picks and in 0:14:46.840 --> 0:14:50.040 my opinion, underestimated in terms of what the error that 0:14:50.080 --> 0:14:52.200 they're hitting when it comes to AI. 0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:53.160 Dan. 0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:55.840 I know, we kind of knew the CS was going 0:14:55.880 --> 0:14:59.360 to be all AI centric here as you talk to investors, 0:14:59.600 --> 0:15:02.840 are you don't say any AI fatigue that maybe it's 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:06.800 played out, or boy, it's it's hard to handle these valuations, 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:09.520 or boy, their numbers are getting so big. What's the 0:15:09.560 --> 0:15:11.160 conversations you're having with clients. 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:15.320 About Yeah, well, I think when you you know the 0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:17.800 time we spend there with Nvideo and Jensen and on 0:15:17.840 --> 0:15:20.160 the floor, you cannot come away within that. 0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:21.960 There's an AI bubble I. 0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:23.960 Mean we're still in the early days of play now 0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:27.280 because you see what's happening on embedded devices on the 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:31.080 chip releases obviously releasage to AMD and others, and I 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:33.960 think it's not the tig. I think investors are starting 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:37.280 to realize that this next stage of the AI revolution 0:15:37.440 --> 0:15:38.080 is now taken. 0:15:38.120 --> 0:15:41.720 Hold Dan, help me here with this. 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:46.960 Paul mentioned cees. Where do the smaller AI companies fit in? 0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:49.400 Are we going to like perplexity, Are we going to 0:15:49.440 --> 0:15:51.760 see M and A this year for all of these 0:15:51.880 --> 0:15:54.920 names that Claude and the rest that I don't understand. 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:57.320 Are we going to see an AI roll up? 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:00.680 I think you're gonna see a lot of acts, positions, 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:06.160 strategic financial acquisitions in terms of tech, which about robotics, 0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:08.760 that's one of our favorite era games. I've still serve 0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.680 robotics is in a good example. Looking the reality is 0:16:12.920 --> 0:16:15.360 that it's an arms race that's playing out. It's gonna 0:16:15.360 --> 0:16:18.400 be a lot of acquisitions, a lot of consolidation, and 0:16:18.480 --> 0:16:22.040 I think that's why it's just going to be year 0:16:22.200 --> 0:16:24.600 three of an eight to ten year build out of 0:16:24.680 --> 0:16:25.640 the revolution. 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:28.400 When did you get into tech stocks, Like, were you 0:16:28.440 --> 0:16:30.920 sitting in the student union. I've sat in the student 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:33.720 union at Penn State. Were you out at State College 0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:37.120 one day and the lights shone down? Dan Eisener's was epiphany, 0:16:37.360 --> 0:16:39.320 wear bright clothes and followed tech. 0:16:40.800 --> 0:16:42.720 I think, look, I mean, obviously it started in my 0:16:42.880 --> 0:16:44.800 Penn and State days. I have a lot of tend 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.360 standers here at the at the bell ring it. But 0:16:47.400 --> 0:16:49.640 I think to me, it was really in the late 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:54.440 nineties starting to cover Internet. It was the recognition that 0:16:54.560 --> 0:16:57.320 it was going to be the start of what's really 0:16:57.320 --> 0:16:59.480 going to be a forty to fifty year tech buildout. 0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:01.760 And I think what we're seeing today is just the 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:02.800 next stage of that. 0:17:03.240 --> 0:17:05.000 It started in State College. 0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:09.800 And obviously, you know, I'm super happy that investors have 0:17:09.840 --> 0:17:11.880 to have supported me along the journeys. 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:16.679 Dan, So what's the uh, what's the key issue pushback 0:17:16.760 --> 0:17:18.800 if any from your clients these days? 0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:19.600 Is it valuation? 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:23.760 Is it just I'm just I've made my money, I'm 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:24.800 taking it off the table here? 0:17:24.800 --> 0:17:25.560 What's the pushback? 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:26.400 Yeah? 0:17:26.400 --> 0:17:30.840 I think evaluations, circuit of financing. Is there a two 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:33.440 big defail moment open the eye and I think news 0:17:33.480 --> 0:17:37.199 are in the US try to trade negotiations parents, but 0:17:37.280 --> 0:17:40.360 look to me, it's like we'll have these white knuckle moments. 0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:42.399 But I said, I think techtocks are up twenty percent 0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:47.000 this year, but it's as wegin earning season in January 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:49.600 and you get more into cap backs and get more 0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:51.439 I think that's going to be the key to this 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:52.280 next stage. 0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:53.960 Are the tech broke? I'm going to ask a Paul 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:56.560 Sweetey question. We got to go Dan, Are the tech. 0:17:56.320 --> 0:17:59.360 Broken to grow up and finally develop dividends and dividend 0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:01.320 growth height? 0:18:01.400 --> 0:18:03.200 Look, I mean a bench, but I don't think now 0:18:03.280 --> 0:18:05.720 because you want to focus on investments, right, and I 0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:09.400 think that to me, this is an arms race. It's 0:18:09.440 --> 0:18:13.199 ten thirty pm in the AI party goes to four am. 0:18:13.359 --> 0:18:15.800 Don't worry if there's some glass dropping the dance for. 0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:21.120 Okay, Dani's congratulations on the thank you initiative of your GIF. 0:18:21.200 --> 0:18:22.479 What was the number he brought in? 0:18:22.520 --> 0:18:24.240 It was like, I think there's like a billion dollars 0:18:24.280 --> 0:18:24.600 in THEIRS. 0:18:25.000 --> 0:18:29.560 One billion dollars for That's a nice number. Stay with us. 0:18:29.800 --> 0:18:40.080 More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:44.000 This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:47.439 starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 0:18:47.480 --> 0:18:50.440 with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live 0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:54.080 on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just 0:18:54.119 --> 0:18:56.679 say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:18:57.080 --> 0:18:59.440 Wendy Shower joins us. Now as we go, look at 0:19:00.200 --> 0:19:03.400 grebs there. If you do the AI thing like your students, 0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:07.520 and I do, Professor Schiller up at Brown University, It's 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:12.359 something like Jefferson, a strict constructionist, worried the Constitution didn't 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:16.000 grant power to buy territory. Let's start with the basics, 0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:21.040 as President Trump trying to buy territory in Greenland or Venezuela. 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:26.920 Well, Tom and Paul and Lisa. Stephen Miller is one 0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:30.159 of his chief domestic advisors, said, yeah, they want to 0:19:30.200 --> 0:19:33.639 buy Greenland. They want to control Greenland somehow. And if 0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:35.800 they want to do that, at least the most famous 0:19:35.840 --> 0:19:40.000 precedent would indicate they need Congress's permission in a vote 0:19:40.160 --> 0:19:42.880 to authorize using US dollars to do that. 0:19:43.520 --> 0:19:45.080 Is that a Louisiana purchase. 0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:48.320 It is a Louisiana purchase, and we're going to buy 0:19:48.600 --> 0:19:51.280 a major territory. Now, you know, a lot of people 0:19:51.320 --> 0:19:53.920 don't know the scope of Louisiana purchase, how much land 0:19:53.960 --> 0:19:56.080 that was and why it was so important, you know, 0:19:56.160 --> 0:19:58.760 to go west and sort of opening that entire gateway, 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.320 solidifying I think, US expansion. 0:20:03.240 --> 0:20:04.359 So it's really going. 0:20:04.280 --> 0:20:06.960 To have to be a justification when again, people are 0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:10.880 worried about things at home, the president seems to be focusing, 0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:14.240 with some exceptions, on matters abroad. 0:20:14.240 --> 0:20:17.879 Wendy, should we be surprised that Congress is giving the 0:20:17.880 --> 0:20:21.640 president a fair amount of leeway here on these international 0:20:21.720 --> 0:20:25.840 efforts in Venezuela, maybe Greenland, maybe some other areas. 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:28.480 Should Congress be taking a larger role here? 0:20:29.640 --> 0:20:32.320 Well, you know, on Venezuela, you know, the President of 0:20:32.400 --> 0:20:36.720