Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily
Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg twenty
Speaker 1: eight days to the election. And of course some of
Speaker 1: the nuances here gets pushed aside by the brute force
Speaker 1: of politics. Michael Waltz understands that he is a Republican
Speaker 1: from Florida, the sixth Congressional District. This is from Jacksonville
Speaker 1: in the south of Jacksonville down. He is the Congressman
Speaker 1: of Daytona Beach. Michael Walls, thank you so much for
Speaker 1: rejoining us. It was good to see you the other day.
Speaker 1: Your guy has to win Florida. Your district is twelve
Speaker 1: percent Hispanic. How does he get the Hispanic vote? How
Speaker 1: does he get the increase seen Cuban vote in Miami. Well,
Speaker 1: I can tell you he's doing very well with the
Speaker 1: Cuban vote and the Venezuelan vote. For one simple reason,
Speaker 1: the words socialism doesn't doesn't ring too well with with
Speaker 1: that part of the Hispanic vote. These are people who
Speaker 1: have suffered personally, who have lost family members or still
Speaker 1: have family members suffering in Cuba, in Venezuela under the
Speaker 1: Madureau regime and under the remnants of the Castro regime,
Speaker 1: and the move by the progressive left, UH to actively
Speaker 1: say and advocate socialist policies and really driving Hispanic towards
Speaker 1: the president and towards Republican Party. Well said, you've stated
Speaker 1: your case. Do you see any indication that Mr Biden
Speaker 1: of Delaware has decided to support the far left of
Speaker 1: the liberals on that matter or is he running more centrist? Well,
Speaker 1: I think he's been kind of all over the place,
Speaker 1: to be honest with you. At some point he was
Speaker 1: for the Green New Deal. It's on his website. Then
Speaker 1: in the debate he says it's not his plan. His
Speaker 1: vice president certainly is pounded the table for Medicare for all.
Speaker 1: He brought in the progressive left into his working groups
Speaker 1: for healthcare. Uh. Look, government run healthcare is not the solution. Uh.
Speaker 1: Look at the problems with the v A, which I
Speaker 1: hope we'll talk about, which runs from the government twelve
Speaker 1: hundred hospitals and pres and yet still is not serving
Speaker 1: our veterans. That's the best example of where the left
Speaker 1: wants to go and and I absolutely do think that
Speaker 1: will dominate Biden's policies. I'm sure that you want a
Speaker 1: debate in Miami just for bragging points for Florida and
Speaker 1: all that. The governor no doubt wants a debate in
Speaker 1: Miami as well. How do we do a debate in
Speaker 1: Miami that fits the realities of one candidate healthy and
Speaker 1: the other one rather ill. Well, the typical course of
Speaker 1: the virus in the quarantine, uh, should be done by
Speaker 1: that debate in another ten days. The president is looking
Speaker 1: much better, uh, and I think at that point will
Speaker 1: be able to have the debate. They'll stay socially distanced.
Speaker 1: Their teams will say, uh, well, we'll stay apart and
Speaker 1: say distance as well. Very few people are going to
Speaker 1: be allowed into the room. But I think that debate
Speaker 1: is important for people to hear, and it's important per
Speaker 1: our earlier point on where the left wants to go
Speaker 1: in terms of what it calls democratic socialism. To have
Speaker 1: that in Miami in the midst of people whose relatives,
Speaker 1: family members, and even themselves have suffered. Uh. There is
Speaker 1: a huge refugee population of Venezuelan population, that is that
Speaker 1: has been brutalized by the by the Madureau regime in Venezuela.
Speaker 1: And uh And I think that's a debate that needs
Speaker 1: to be had in a great place to have it. Congressman,
Speaker 1: I think we can anticipate one of the questions that
Speaker 1: will be host next week, and I do want to
Speaker 1: I'd love to here what your response to this question
Speaker 1: would be. If someone posts the question, if the President
Speaker 1: can't keep the White House safe from COVID nineteen, how
Speaker 1: did you protect the country. What is the answer to that, Congressman, Well, look,
Speaker 1: I think the President has kept the White House safe
Speaker 1: for the for an extraordinary amount of time to this year.
Speaker 1: I've personally been in and out a number of times,
Speaker 1: on and off of Air Force one. Uh. Look, at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, no one said that this
Speaker 1: virus would never spread. Uh. The goal was to flatten
Speaker 1: the curve, to get a hospital system that could to
Speaker 1: buy our hospital system time to handle it and not
Speaker 1: become completely overwhelmed while we march towards therapeutics and the vaccine.
Speaker 1: Uh So, if those were our goals which we have
Speaker 1: to which we have to keep an eye on, I
Speaker 1: think we have largely hit those. Meanwhile, I do think
Speaker 1: Biden needs to be held accountable for uh, for not
Speaker 1: wanting to shutdown from China, for not wanting to shutdown
Speaker 1: from Europe, for calling them policies zeno phobic, and for
Speaker 1: himself and his advisors early on not advocating for some
Speaker 1: of the stronger policies that the president put in place.
Speaker 1: I think cossmen going on here in terms of what
Speaker 1: he would have done had he be president. And again,
Speaker 1: that's what debates are for, and that's what's going to
Speaker 1: come out. Congressman, just real quick, do you think that
Speaker 1: President Trump has handled the own virus in his cabinet
Speaker 1: for himself well, given the fact that he's currently uh
Speaker 1: displaying himself not wearing a mask and going for what
Speaker 1: some people have called a joy ride in front of
Speaker 1: his supporters with Secret Service members in the same car. Yeah. Look,
Speaker 1: so there's there's a big difference when you have the
Speaker 1: luxury of just being a candidate versus when you have
Speaker 1: to govern and when you have to lead, and you
Speaker 1: have to lead with agency and cabinet heads that have
Speaker 1: to leave the Defense Department, of State Department and others.
Speaker 1: UH and and other critical departments. You have to be
Speaker 1: out there. You have to find ways to walk and
Speaker 1: chew gum. And I think that's been the President's message
Speaker 1: all along, is we cannot go to shutdown. It's just
Speaker 1: it's just not a responsible policy. We were talking about
Speaker 1: veterans a moment ago. You know, we're seeing a twining
Speaker 1: spike in veteran suicides just in the last year because
Speaker 1: of the isolations that are are getting put in place
Speaker 1: by mandatory shutdown. So I think the President's messages we
Speaker 1: have to find ways to say if we do both,
Speaker 1: we have to find he has to govern and to lead.
Speaker 1: Uh and and I think that's what he's been trying
Speaker 1: to do. Congressman, fantastic to have you on the program today.
Speaker 1: Hopefully we can have you back soon. Thanks for giving
Speaker 1: us your time. Congressman Michael Waltz there joining us on
Speaker 1: the latest. Waking up after sleeping for the last four
Speaker 1: months or so. Peter Chick, Academy Securities, head of macro Strategy. Peter,
Speaker 1: now you've been paying attention. Don't worry. I'm just joking.
Speaker 1: Let's stop with this bond market and treasuries in the
Speaker 1: action of the last twenty four page tour. In your view,
Speaker 1: was it a data the I s M better upside surprise?
Speaker 1: Was it the president's health seemingly according to his doctors,
Speaker 1: on the road to recovery, or was it the polls
Speaker 1: and the polls this morning as well. I think the
Speaker 1: polls are certainly helping because of pushing us towards stimulus.
Speaker 1: And I think the reality has no matter who wins,
Speaker 1: we're gonna see stimulus. We're gonna see more quote unquote
Speaker 1: band aid stimulus, like we're seeing where they're trying to
Speaker 1: make people whole. But the market is starting the price
Speaker 1: in that. We're gonna see infrastructure stimulus. We're gonna see
Speaker 1: real spending that is going to drop a lot more
Speaker 1: bonds into the bond market. It's already been having some
Speaker 1: trouble digesting bonds for the past month in the treasury market.
Speaker 1: So I think you see the ten year ago to
Speaker 1: at least one percent, maybe one and a quarter percent.
Speaker 1: I'm looking, Peter at the failure of two yield rallies
Speaker 1: since March. In the land of point figure, it's called
Speaker 1: a double pole high top. It's really an ugly a thing.
Speaker 1: We go up and yield and then we go down
Speaker 1: and then we go up been yield When we go
Speaker 1: down again, what does that signal to you? I think
Speaker 1: that we've kind of hit the limits of where we
Speaker 1: can get into terms of lower yields. So that's another
Speaker 1: reason higher yields. Also, when we had that stock market
Speaker 1: volatility recently and we are down on stocks, treasury is
Speaker 1: barely budged, yet another negative sign that that's not going
Speaker 1: to take much to push yields higher. And then finally,
Speaker 1: I know the move index, which is an index that
Speaker 1: really looks at implied volatility and the treasury market. I
Speaker 1: know it's a little bit wonky, but it's been very
Speaker 1: very low, telling me that people haven't been hedging any
Speaker 1: sort of interest rate risk. So again another reason, I
Speaker 1: think we're susceptible to a fairly rapid move to one
Speaker 1: to one and a quarter percent on the tenure Peter.
Speaker 1: That sounds like a lot given the stasis we've seen
Speaker 1: in the bond market recently. Will that get the Feds attention?
Speaker 1: I don't think so. You know, I think above one
Speaker 1: percent they start paying attention and then they maybe start
Speaker 1: doing things to ensure that we don't get above one
Speaker 1: in a quarter. But I do think if you look
Speaker 1: at the FEDS messaging for the past month or two,
Speaker 1: they would not be unhappy to see slightly higher yields
Speaker 1: and a steeper curve. Right. I think the FETE has
Speaker 1: done in much much better job than the ECB trying
Speaker 1: to ensure that banks can make some money. Right, we
Speaker 1: are not going to negative yields. I hate negative yields.
Speaker 1: I think they're the worst thing possible for the economy.
Speaker 1: So we're not gonna get negative yields. I think the
Speaker 1: Fed actually wants to see a steeper yield curve, and
Speaker 1: bizarrely enough against very very circular. But they talk about
Speaker 1: inflation expectations. That's a calculation from that anyway, so it
Speaker 1: suits their agenda. We'll pay to tell that to the
Speaker 1: Cleaytland Fed. Laret Amesta out yesterday saying quote, I can
Speaker 1: imagine wanting to shift to longer term treasuries as we
Speaker 1: did during the Great Recession. How do you frame that one?
Speaker 1: I think they are going to be very careful not
Speaker 1: to let it get above one and a quarter percent.
Speaker 1: So as we start seeing higher yields or model higher yields,
Speaker 1: I think first the FED will step up buy more treasuries.
Speaker 1: Then we'll go back hearing a little bit more about
Speaker 1: yield curve control, and I think we are stuck in
Speaker 1: this world. We potentially see real negative yields in the US,
Speaker 1: you know, very negative. And that's one reason I remained
Speaker 1: barish on the dollar. Is any inflation, which would normally
Speaker 1: express itself in higher yields is going to be camped
Speaker 1: down by the FED and money is gonna have to
Speaker 1: find itself somewhere else, So it's going to express itself
Speaker 1: in dollar weakness. So inflation is going to be dollar weakness,
Speaker 1: not higher yields because of the Fed. Does it matter
Speaker 1: to you, Peter is a market guy that the economists
Speaker 1: are partitioning inflation among goods and services. Goods inflation, maybe
Speaker 1: service sector looks like substantial disinflation. Does that stuff matter
Speaker 1: to you? It does a little bit. But I think
Speaker 1: over the long term we will see an equalization. I
Speaker 1: do think if we get this infrastructure spending for the
Speaker 1: first time in a long long time, we might see
Speaker 1: some real competition to hire mid level type employees, people
Speaker 1: who can manage plants, people who can manage production facilities,
Speaker 1: and that could actually create wage inflation, which has been
Speaker 1: really lacking for the last ten years. So, given the
Speaker 1: fact that you do think that bonds will sell off,
Speaker 1: do you think that it is inconsistent for equities to
Speaker 1: continue to rally in tandem or do you think that
Speaker 1: they will continue uh their rush upward based on this
Speaker 1: extra support fiscally as well as an improving economy with
Speaker 1: the end of the pandemic. You know one thing, I'll
Speaker 1: say It's probably gonna sound crazy, but I actually like
Speaker 1: dividend stocks, and dividend stocks would normally do poorly as
Speaker 1: yields are rising, but dividend stocks did not respond at
Speaker 1: all for the past two months to low yields. So
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see a little bit of a normalization,
Speaker 1: almost what I'm calling a reversal trade. I would have
Speaker 1: called it a reopening trade a couple of months ago,
Speaker 1: but we moved so far beyond that, I think it's
Speaker 1: a reversal trade. I do think big tech is particularly susceptible.
Speaker 1: Depending on who wins, they may be a target for
Speaker 1: paying a lot of the bills, so I'd be a
Speaker 1: little bit more nervous there. I continue to like the
Speaker 1: performance that we've seen in reopening I really like the
Speaker 1: fact that the Russell two thousand has been doing well
Speaker 1: of late, So I think we could see a real strong,
Speaker 1: smaller company, domestic focused rally for the next two months
Speaker 1: as the spending company. To let's separate these issues out,
Speaker 1: because we standed can flight two different issues. I think
Speaker 1: there are events that squeeze positions and there are events
Speaker 1: that drive durabile change. Now, the thing that pay put
Speaker 1: a worried about going into November is that we don't
Speaker 1: have a result. The thing that squeezes positions is that
Speaker 1: we do have one. That's the somebody, the who that
Speaker 1: is what drives dura will change. Now, if somebody wins
Speaker 1: i e. Biden, you get a democratic sweep, that will
Speaker 1: squeeze positions. I would argue the other side as well,
Speaker 1: if you've got a red wave that was squeeze positions too.
Speaker 1: But what drives durable changes, that's the person the policy.
Speaker 1: Are we confined in the two issues at the moment,
Speaker 1: I think a little bit. But I think when you
Speaker 1: really look beyond the message, and what's going to be
Speaker 1: most important to me is will we get fiscal stimulus,
Speaker 1: will we get infrastructure spending, Will we try and rebuild
Speaker 1: a manufacturing base, and to me, the messaging from both
Speaker 1: sides is actually very similar. So if I think about
Speaker 1: what's going to be the most important next year is
Speaker 1: do we drive fiscal stimulus, I think the answer is yes.
Speaker 1: Regardless of who wins, how we pay for it might
Speaker 1: shift a little bit, but that's kind of why I'm
Speaker 1: very optimistic, and I suspect that at the end of
Speaker 1: one we will have a better job situation in the
Speaker 1: US than we had at the start of pay A
Speaker 1: cash offs. As always Piotr Academy Securities had a macross strategy.
Speaker 1: You got to be in the market to play in
Speaker 1: the market, and Robert Dahl of Moving has done that
Speaker 1: for years. Bob dal joins us this morning. Bob, how
Speaker 1: do you stay in the market here with all this uncertainty?
Speaker 1: You recognize that the underlying economic fundamentals and therefore earnings
Speaker 1: were in a reflationary period. You all just summed it
Speaker 1: up very well. In the West, You're doing great, You're
Speaker 1: doing great. You see, we're about to get amazing third
Speaker 1: quarter g d P. I know that's history. The good
Speaker 1: third quarter earnings, reasonable outlook for the fourth quarter, fiscal
Speaker 1: policy package or not. We're seeing precious medals. We're seeing
Speaker 1: industrial commodities moving up. We're obviously the stock market cyclicals
Speaker 1: are beginning to do do a little bit better, and
Speaker 1: even the bond market is waking up to say inflation
Speaker 1: is not gonna be zero forever. What'd you make of
Speaker 1: the relative still right now, Bob, between Europe the United States?
Speaker 1: Three months ago, the happy talk around Europe was almost
Speaker 1: defini and they don't hear much of it anymore. And
Speaker 1: the momentum, relatively speaking, is not in Europe right now.
Speaker 1: It's in the US, Bob, no question about it. Our
Speaker 1: economy came back faster because our policy, mixed was gargantial
Speaker 1: and fast. I mean, you can't find another period in
Speaker 1: history monetary and fiscal policy was this quick and this aggressive,
Speaker 1: and that has buoyed our economy and getting got us
Speaker 1: out of what could have gotten to be a longer
Speaker 1: and deeper recession when we shut the economy off. And
Speaker 1: that's why the US is doing well. So I sense
Speaker 1: where you want to be the United States over potentially Europe.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about where in the United States you'd like
Speaker 1: to be. Yesterday we saw that internal rotation that the
Speaker 1: likes of JP Morgan, Government, Sacks and others are talking
Speaker 1: about that moved to the cyclical parts of the equity market. Bob,
Speaker 1: why do you think we can have a sustainable move
Speaker 1: there and not just a position squeeze. Well, there is
Speaker 1: some position squeezing going on, no question. I think it's
Speaker 1: not an either or. I think it's a both end.
Speaker 1: If you've been successful in equities, you've had you know,
Speaker 1: technology and healthcare, and not many small stocks and not
Speaker 1: many cyclicals until the last few weeks. Now it's at
Speaker 1: both end. We had to run, for example, in financials
Speaker 1: yesterday today it might be the tech stocks coming on again.
Speaker 1: We've had this rotation with an upward trend that's going
Speaker 1: to continue. I like some of the consumer cyclical names,
Speaker 1: the best buys, Low's targets, even the some of the
Speaker 1: home builders. I'm not giving up on healthcare. I think
Speaker 1: they're there there, There are good news they're regardless of
Speaker 1: who gets selected. The stocks are not expensive, so they're
Speaker 1: the places I would camp out. Where's the cash flow?
Speaker 1: Can you reinvested for some growth? And are you doing
Speaker 1: well and making up money and cash flow in an
Speaker 1: environment that is post coronavirus. But the most read story
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg yesterday. How to do with Wall Street
Speaker 1: analysts saying that a Biden win could be a bull
Speaker 1: case for US equities. And there's a lot of pushback,
Speaker 1: people saying it's just people going with their political beliefs.
Speaker 1: But Bob, do you adhere to this narrative that a
Speaker 1: Democrat sweep both of the of the Senate, the House
Speaker 1: and the presidency would be positive for markets? Probably initially, yes,
Speaker 1: because we will get a fiscal policy spending that will
Speaker 1: buoy the economy further, probably more than of the re
Speaker 1: election of Donald Trump, particularly if it's a mixed congress
Speaker 1: in that sense. Longer term, you know, if you're gonna
Speaker 1: have tax increases, are gonna have reregulation, that's not great
Speaker 1: for the market. So there could be this within the
Speaker 1: air of the positive reflationary trade, as I mentioned, getting
Speaker 1: a goose the bit from some fiscal policy spending, and
Speaker 1: then people will wake up and say not so fast. Well,
Speaker 1: and this has to do particularly with tech stocks, big
Speaker 1: tex stocks, because not only do you have an increasing
Speaker 1: antitrust sentiment that is growing certainly among the Democratic Party
Speaker 1: in Washington, d C. But as you said, the talk
Speaker 1: tax changes that Joe Biden would implement would disproportionately hit
Speaker 1: big tech companies. According to analysis by Bank of America,
Speaker 1: would you go underweight tech in a Democrat suite? I
Speaker 1: wouldn't go underweight. I would probably have less in a
Speaker 1: Democrat suite than I would if if the president is
Speaker 1: re elected, but I wouldn't go underweight. The underlying growth
Speaker 1: is just so powerful. COVID was a positive for the
Speaker 1: tech sector. Look we're gonna have under either administration continued
Speaker 1: queries of those companies, and look at Camel's nose under
Speaker 1: the tent. The government wants more money from these companies,
Speaker 1: and they that will hurt the multiples. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: it's going to hurt the earnings. Hi, Bob, great to
Speaker 1: catch up, sir, don't leave us along next time. All
Speaker 1: that ve chief eculty strategist, Thank you very much. Right
Speaker 1: now is something very spiritual. She is Carla Harris of Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: who never said no. Starting with the Radcliffe Choral Society,
Speaker 1: she carved out a singing a legit singing and music career,
Speaker 1: including wonderful appearances at Carnegie Hall, and in the meantime
Speaker 1: worked for Morgan Stanley. She is now Vice Chairman and
Speaker 1: Senior Senior Client Adviser. We're thrilled that Ms Harris could
Speaker 1: join us this morning on things Wall Street, but also
Speaker 1: things of this society in America right now, Carla, is
Speaker 1: a spirit that got you out of Jacksonville to Radcliffe.
Speaker 1: Is it still there? I would have to say it's
Speaker 1: very much still here and the live and kick it. Tom,
Speaker 1: how are you this morning? We're very good, wonderful to
Speaker 1: have you with us. I'd like you to interpret for
Speaker 1: us what Wall Street can do to allow a nation
Speaker 1: to heal and move forward. Yes, I'll tell you. One
Speaker 1: of the things that Wall Street can do it as
Speaker 1: providers of capital, is to make sure that those who
Speaker 1: don't have equal access to capital get that access. And
Speaker 1: that's one of the things we've done in Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 1: As you know, Tom, we s thought of the Multicultural
Speaker 1: Innovation Lab four years ago and I'm so excited today
Speaker 1: because it's our demo days. So that's the big coming
Speaker 1: out date where our companies, the nine companies that have
Speaker 1: been in the lab will be will be shown to investors.
Speaker 1: And we know that here through the acumen of Betsy
Speaker 1: gray Sick looking at banking and of course then there's
Speaker 1: Ellen Zettner who's been killing it as well, and economics.
Speaker 1: Carla Harris, I want to know what we need to
Speaker 1: do to get the mathiness of your degree in economics
Speaker 1: from a Harvard How do we get women, how do
Speaker 1: we get minorities engaged in the joys of microeconomics? Well,
Speaker 1: I'll tell you a lot of it is access to education,
Speaker 1: as you know, and then access to opportunities and the
Speaker 1: entrepreneurs that are out there. It's around access to capital because,
Speaker 1: as you know, women get less than three percent of
Speaker 1: traditional VC dollars and people of color get less than
Speaker 1: two percent or one percent, depending on your source. So
Speaker 1: I think that what we can do is to make
Speaker 1: sure that they know where the capital is and give
Speaker 1: them a fair shot. And many cases, these entrepreneurs have
Speaker 1: already been de risked by the time we even see
Speaker 1: them because they've had such a much tougher journey. Carl Harris,
Speaker 1: why have we been so bad at actually providing that,
Speaker 1: you know, that capital to people that needed and really
Speaker 1: be a turning point for this. Yeah, if I want
Speaker 1: to be constructive, I'll tell you that the reason that
Speaker 1: we've been bad at it is that people like to
Speaker 1: lean on the excuse that they can't find any But
Speaker 1: that's one of the things that we've been trying to
Speaker 1: fix through our podcast, Access and Opportunity is to highlight
Speaker 1: some of these great entrepreneurs and the highlight those have
Speaker 1: already invested. Because the more you put data out there
Speaker 1: and the more you elevate the conversation, I think the
Speaker 1: more people will start to say, we're wait, there really
Speaker 1: is something there. And the companies that we've brought into
Speaker 1: our lab have gone on to raise over thirty million
Speaker 1: dollars after they've been in the lab, which means we
Speaker 1: have been successful in raising the level of visibility. And
Speaker 1: today we have over fifty four billion dollars that will
Speaker 1: be represented among the investors that have come to our
Speaker 1: virtual Demo day. Um Carla Harrison, I rememb're speaking many
Speaker 1: years ago, actually took are seeing the garden. She would
Speaker 1: go around when she was at the I m F
Speaker 1: speaking to heads of state who said, I would love
Speaker 1: to find a woman to fill that job as finance minister,
Speaker 1: as environment minister, but they're just not there. And she
Speaker 1: would show up literally and have a list and say, well, here,
Speaker 1: I have a list of names that you could look
Speaker 1: at how can we incentivize people on Wall Street to
Speaker 1: do more? Does it have to be does does diversity
Speaker 1: have to be part of their pay package? Well? I
Speaker 1: think it. I think it has to be a part
Speaker 1: of your intent and your objections, no objectives, no question
Speaker 1: about it. Because if you want to avail yourself with
Speaker 1: the best talent, you have to avail yourself of all
Speaker 1: the talent that's in the marketplace. And that's really the
Speaker 1: hallmark of good leadership. So I think you have to
Speaker 1: be intentional about making sure you have the first thinking
Speaker 1: at the table or you're gonna have a gap and
Speaker 1: you go to market strategy and expose yourself to competition
Speaker 1: in a way that you never have before, especially going
Speaker 1: forward with millennials and zars really caring about this and
Speaker 1: Ms Harris, we are learning so much in this pandemic,
Speaker 1: all of us. It's been actually really humbling. Just as
Speaker 1: one stupid thing, I using a lot less paper than
Speaker 1: I did before this pandemic. They're serious things that are
Speaker 1: out there, and I would suggest the major constraint now
Speaker 1: is it's been for decades, is the childcare in this nation.
Speaker 1: It's a major constraint. Jamie Diamonds talked about it at
Speaker 1: JP Morgan. I'm sure James Gorman has Morgan Stanley as well.
Speaker 1: How do we get to a childcare program that mimics
Speaker 1: selected other developed nations. Well, I'll tell you many corporations,
Speaker 1: including my own, have created programs for working parents so
Speaker 1: that they will have places to keep their kids, or
Speaker 1: they'll have people that are available in emergencies. And I
Speaker 1: frankly think on the other side of COVID nineteen you're
Speaker 1: gonna see more and more companies think about a way
Speaker 1: that they can be innovative around childcare. So you bring
Speaker 1: up a very good point up Carla Harris. From where
Speaker 1: I'm sitting, which is not in the US, it's really
Speaker 1: quite you know, difficult to see a United States that's
Speaker 1: so divided ahead the election on all sorts of front
Speaker 1: what's the prescription for going forward? Well, you know, I
Speaker 1: I am certainly a glasshouf fool as kind of girl
Speaker 1: as you know, and I do believe that on the
Speaker 1: other side of this global pandemic we will find a
Speaker 1: way to come together. I think that's one of the reasons. Frankly,
Speaker 1: if you really want to get spiritual about it, this
Speaker 1: has descented upon us to really make us focused on
Speaker 1: the fact that we're all interdependent and we all need
Speaker 1: each other at the end of the day. And this
Speaker 1: is the first time in my lifetime and probably in yours,
Speaker 1: that this has been a common experience. And I'm hopeful
Speaker 1: that because it's been a common experience, we will come
Speaker 1: together and find a common solution. And you're right, it's
Speaker 1: hurtful to see the divide, but I think you know,
Speaker 1: on the other side of this, we'll find a way
Speaker 1: to get together. How will it reshape Wall Street? How
Speaker 1: will it reshape how we work from home or not?
Speaker 1: What do you see as as a lasting legacy of
Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. I think every company will have to rethink
Speaker 1: it's it's real estate portfolio, how they work, how efficient
Speaker 1: people can can be with the right of technology. I
Speaker 1: think companies are seeing that for the first time. So
Speaker 1: I think every company across every industry so of rethinking
Speaker 1: what do we need to look like, what's our optimal size?
Speaker 1: You know, how can we enable people to be even
Speaker 1: more productive and more importantly more innovative if they're not
Speaker 1: in the same space. And the big question is how
Speaker 1: do you create and drive culture when you aren't under
Speaker 1: the same root. That's the big question, Carl. What's the
Speaker 1: question you get the most by clients of Morgan Stanley?
Speaker 1: What do they want to know about? What kind of economy,
Speaker 1: world building? What kind of social cohesion will be post Well,
Speaker 1: the biggest question that that I've gotten, especially as a
Speaker 1: public speaker, is how do you lead when you're not
Speaker 1: in the same space? You know? How do you drive productivity?
Speaker 1: How do you keep people comfortable and focused and and
Speaker 1: and really driving in the same direction and maximize your productivity?
Speaker 1: And frankly, what I've been saying to leaders, especially when
Speaker 1: we went into this shelter in place protocol, there's three
Speaker 1: things that you must do. Number one, you must be visible.
Speaker 1: Number two, you must be trained parent about what you
Speaker 1: know and what you don't know and more importantly, when
Speaker 1: you know it. And number three, you must be empathetic
Speaker 1: and and that will allow you to create some stability
Speaker 1: and some certainty when people are craving stability and certainty
Speaker 1: and you're not in the same place, and if you
Speaker 1: are authentic, which is number one, then they are apt
Speaker 1: to follow you into this uncertain environment. Dependentic will also
Speaker 1: hurt women more than than men. It will hurt you know,
Speaker 1: being people more than why. It's how do we address this,
Speaker 1: how do we rebalance this? Well, I have to tell
Speaker 1: you I am not of the mind that it necessarily
Speaker 1: will put people out of disadvantage women and people of color,
Speaker 1: because this is the first time in many ways that
Speaker 1: there's a level playing field. It used to be if
Speaker 1: you're in the same place, you know, maybe someone share
Speaker 1: they went to the same school, or they golf together,
Speaker 1: and you might have been intimidated by approaching the leader
Speaker 1: because you saw them talking to someone else and you said, well,
Speaker 1: I don't share playing golfer. I don't share having gone
Speaker 1: to that school. But now everybody has to communicate in
Speaker 1: this way, so there is a level playing field. And
Speaker 1: so now it's really about your own initiative to reach
Speaker 1: out to someone and say, Hey, Tom, I wanted to
Speaker 1: have a conversation with you pre COVID. Can you give
Speaker 1: me ten minutes on a zoom I'd like to walk
Speaker 1: through three or four things again, talk about my career.
Speaker 1: So now you can be very focused, very intentional, and
Speaker 1: you can connect in the same way that everyone else
Speaker 1: is connecting. So I actually think this has created a
Speaker 1: bit of a level playing field, but your initiative must
Speaker 1: drive the connection, no question. He ever off to Miss
Speaker 1: Carla Harris. Thank you so much for joining us, Ay
Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley, Vice Chair and Senior Client Adviser. Thanks for
Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to
Speaker 1: interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer.
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.