1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg twenty 5 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:29,280 Speaker 1: eight days to the election. And of course some of 6 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: the nuances here gets pushed aside by the brute force 7 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: of politics. Michael Waltz understands that he is a Republican 8 00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:39,840 Speaker 1: from Florida, the sixth Congressional District. This is from Jacksonville 9 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:43,200 Speaker 1: in the south of Jacksonville down. He is the Congressman 10 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 1: of Daytona Beach. Michael Walls, thank you so much for 11 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 1: rejoining us. It was good to see you the other day. 12 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 1: Your guy has to win Florida. Your district is twelve 13 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:58,920 Speaker 1: percent Hispanic. How does he get the Hispanic vote? How 14 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 1: does he get the increase seen Cuban vote in Miami. Well, 15 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 1: I can tell you he's doing very well with the 16 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 1: Cuban vote and the Venezuelan vote. For one simple reason, 17 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:15,360 Speaker 1: the words socialism doesn't doesn't ring too well with with 18 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 1: that part of the Hispanic vote. These are people who 19 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: have suffered personally, who have lost family members or still 20 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: have family members suffering in Cuba, in Venezuela under the 21 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: Madureau regime and under the remnants of the Castro regime, 22 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:35,039 Speaker 1: and the move by the progressive left, UH to actively 23 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 1: say and advocate socialist policies and really driving Hispanic towards 24 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,520 Speaker 1: the president and towards Republican Party. Well said, you've stated 25 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: your case. Do you see any indication that Mr Biden 26 00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: of Delaware has decided to support the far left of 27 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: the liberals on that matter or is he running more centrist? Well, 28 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: I think he's been kind of all over the place, 29 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: to be honest with you. At some point he was 30 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 1: for the Green New Deal. It's on his website. Then 31 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:07,280 Speaker 1: in the debate he says it's not his plan. His 32 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 1: vice president certainly is pounded the table for Medicare for all. 33 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 1: He brought in the progressive left into his working groups 34 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 1: for healthcare. Uh. Look, government run healthcare is not the solution. Uh. 35 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 1: Look at the problems with the v A, which I 36 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 1: hope we'll talk about, which runs from the government twelve 37 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 1: hundred hospitals and pres and yet still is not serving 38 00:02:28,800 --> 00:02:31,600 Speaker 1: our veterans. That's the best example of where the left 39 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: wants to go and and I absolutely do think that 40 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:37,480 Speaker 1: will dominate Biden's policies. I'm sure that you want a 41 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,919 Speaker 1: debate in Miami just for bragging points for Florida and 42 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 1: all that. The governor no doubt wants a debate in 43 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: Miami as well. How do we do a debate in 44 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: Miami that fits the realities of one candidate healthy and 45 00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:58,360 Speaker 1: the other one rather ill. Well, the typical course of 46 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 1: the virus in the quarantine, uh, should be done by 47 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 1: that debate in another ten days. The president is looking 48 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: much better, uh, and I think at that point will 49 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,240 Speaker 1: be able to have the debate. They'll stay socially distanced. 50 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: Their teams will say, uh, well, we'll stay apart and 51 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,679 Speaker 1: say distance as well. Very few people are going to 52 00:03:18,760 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: be allowed into the room. But I think that debate 53 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,639 Speaker 1: is important for people to hear, and it's important per 54 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: our earlier point on where the left wants to go 55 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: in terms of what it calls democratic socialism. To have 56 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: that in Miami in the midst of people whose relatives, 57 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 1: family members, and even themselves have suffered. Uh. There is 58 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: a huge refugee population of Venezuelan population, that is that 59 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 1: has been brutalized by the by the Madureau regime in Venezuela. 60 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:51,160 Speaker 1: And uh And I think that's a debate that needs 61 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,440 Speaker 1: to be had in a great place to have it. Congressman, 62 00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 1: I think we can anticipate one of the questions that 63 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: will be host next week, and I do want to 64 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: I'd love to here what your response to this question 65 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 1: would be. If someone posts the question, if the President 66 00:04:04,240 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: can't keep the White House safe from COVID nineteen, how 67 00:04:07,120 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 1: did you protect the country. What is the answer to that, Congressman, Well, look, 68 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 1: I think the President has kept the White House safe 69 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 1: for the for an extraordinary amount of time to this year. 70 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: I've personally been in and out a number of times, 71 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 1: on and off of Air Force one. Uh. Look, at 72 00:04:24,600 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: the end of the day, no one said that this 73 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 1: virus would never spread. Uh. The goal was to flatten 74 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:34,000 Speaker 1: the curve, to get a hospital system that could to 75 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 1: buy our hospital system time to handle it and not 76 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: become completely overwhelmed while we march towards therapeutics and the vaccine. 77 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: Uh So, if those were our goals which we have 78 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,640 Speaker 1: to which we have to keep an eye on, I 79 00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,599 Speaker 1: think we have largely hit those. Meanwhile, I do think 80 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 1: Biden needs to be held accountable for uh, for not 81 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:58,400 Speaker 1: wanting to shutdown from China, for not wanting to shutdown 82 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 1: from Europe, for calling them policies zeno phobic, and for 83 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 1: himself and his advisors early on not advocating for some 84 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 1: of the stronger policies that the president put in place. 85 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 1: I think cossmen going on here in terms of what 86 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: he would have done had he be president. And again, 87 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 1: that's what debates are for, and that's what's going to 88 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 1: come out. Congressman, just real quick, do you think that 89 00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: President Trump has handled the own virus in his cabinet 90 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 1: for himself well, given the fact that he's currently uh 91 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: displaying himself not wearing a mask and going for what 92 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 1: some people have called a joy ride in front of 93 00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: his supporters with Secret Service members in the same car. Yeah. Look, 94 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:43,039 Speaker 1: so there's there's a big difference when you have the 95 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,839 Speaker 1: luxury of just being a candidate versus when you have 96 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: to govern and when you have to lead, and you 97 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 1: have to lead with agency and cabinet heads that have 98 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,000 Speaker 1: to leave the Defense Department, of State Department and others. 99 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:59,039 Speaker 1: UH and and other critical departments. You have to be 100 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 1: out there. You have to find ways to walk and 101 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 1: chew gum. And I think that's been the President's message 102 00:06:04,640 --> 00:06:10,320 Speaker 1: all along, is we cannot go to shutdown. It's just 103 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 1: it's just not a responsible policy. We were talking about 104 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: veterans a moment ago. You know, we're seeing a twining 105 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:23,000 Speaker 1: spike in veteran suicides just in the last year because 106 00:06:23,080 --> 00:06:26,599 Speaker 1: of the isolations that are are getting put in place 107 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: by mandatory shutdown. So I think the President's messages we 108 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:32,520 Speaker 1: have to find ways to say if we do both, 109 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 1: we have to find he has to govern and to lead. 110 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 1: Uh and and I think that's what he's been trying 111 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:42,880 Speaker 1: to do. Congressman, fantastic to have you on the program today. 112 00:06:42,880 --> 00:06:44,479 Speaker 1: Hopefully we can have you back soon. Thanks for giving 113 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: us your time. Congressman Michael Waltz there joining us on 114 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:54,760 Speaker 1: the latest. Waking up after sleeping for the last four 115 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:58,440 Speaker 1: months or so. Peter Chick, Academy Securities, head of macro Strategy. Peter, 116 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 1: now you've been paying attention. Don't worry. I'm just joking. 117 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 1: Let's stop with this bond market and treasuries in the 118 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:05,599 Speaker 1: action of the last twenty four page tour. In your view, 119 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: was it a data the I s M better upside surprise? 120 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: Was it the president's health seemingly according to his doctors, 121 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:14,600 Speaker 1: on the road to recovery, or was it the polls 122 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:17,480 Speaker 1: and the polls this morning as well. I think the 123 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: polls are certainly helping because of pushing us towards stimulus. 124 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:22,559 Speaker 1: And I think the reality has no matter who wins, 125 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: we're gonna see stimulus. We're gonna see more quote unquote 126 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 1: band aid stimulus, like we're seeing where they're trying to 127 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 1: make people whole. But the market is starting the price 128 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,240 Speaker 1: in that. We're gonna see infrastructure stimulus. We're gonna see 129 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 1: real spending that is going to drop a lot more 130 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 1: bonds into the bond market. It's already been having some 131 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 1: trouble digesting bonds for the past month in the treasury market. 132 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 1: So I think you see the ten year ago to 133 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 1: at least one percent, maybe one and a quarter percent. 134 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 1: I'm looking, Peter at the failure of two yield rallies 135 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: since March. In the land of point figure, it's called 136 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: a double pole high top. It's really an ugly a thing. 137 00:07:56,800 --> 00:07:58,679 Speaker 1: We go up and yield and then we go down 138 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:00,760 Speaker 1: and then we go up been yield When we go 139 00:08:00,800 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: down again, what does that signal to you? I think 140 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 1: that we've kind of hit the limits of where we 141 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: can get into terms of lower yields. So that's another 142 00:08:08,600 --> 00:08:11,000 Speaker 1: reason higher yields. Also, when we had that stock market 143 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 1: volatility recently and we are down on stocks, treasury is 144 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 1: barely budged, yet another negative sign that that's not going 145 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 1: to take much to push yields higher. And then finally, 146 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 1: I know the move index, which is an index that 147 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:23,880 Speaker 1: really looks at implied volatility and the treasury market. I 148 00:08:23,880 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 1: know it's a little bit wonky, but it's been very 149 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 1: very low, telling me that people haven't been hedging any 150 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:30,960 Speaker 1: sort of interest rate risk. So again another reason, I 151 00:08:30,960 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 1: think we're susceptible to a fairly rapid move to one 152 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: to one and a quarter percent on the tenure Peter. 153 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: That sounds like a lot given the stasis we've seen 154 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: in the bond market recently. Will that get the Feds attention? 155 00:08:41,480 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 1: I don't think so. You know, I think above one 156 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:48,079 Speaker 1: percent they start paying attention and then they maybe start 157 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: doing things to ensure that we don't get above one 158 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:51,720 Speaker 1: in a quarter. But I do think if you look 159 00:08:51,720 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 1: at the FEDS messaging for the past month or two, 160 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: they would not be unhappy to see slightly higher yields 161 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,640 Speaker 1: and a steeper curve. Right. I think the FETE has 162 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: done in much much better job than the ECB trying 163 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 1: to ensure that banks can make some money. Right, we 164 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: are not going to negative yields. I hate negative yields. 165 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:08,920 Speaker 1: I think they're the worst thing possible for the economy. 166 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 1: So we're not gonna get negative yields. I think the 167 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,760 Speaker 1: Fed actually wants to see a steeper yield curve, and 168 00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:17,080 Speaker 1: bizarrely enough against very very circular. But they talk about 169 00:09:17,120 --> 00:09:20,439 Speaker 1: inflation expectations. That's a calculation from that anyway, so it 170 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:23,560 Speaker 1: suits their agenda. We'll pay to tell that to the 171 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 1: Cleaytland Fed. Laret Amesta out yesterday saying quote, I can 172 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: imagine wanting to shift to longer term treasuries as we 173 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:31,920 Speaker 1: did during the Great Recession. How do you frame that one? 174 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 1: I think they are going to be very careful not 175 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: to let it get above one and a quarter percent. 176 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,280 Speaker 1: So as we start seeing higher yields or model higher yields, 177 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 1: I think first the FED will step up buy more treasuries. 178 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 1: Then we'll go back hearing a little bit more about 179 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,200 Speaker 1: yield curve control, and I think we are stuck in 180 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:50,040 Speaker 1: this world. We potentially see real negative yields in the US, 181 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:52,880 Speaker 1: you know, very negative. And that's one reason I remained 182 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,800 Speaker 1: barish on the dollar. Is any inflation, which would normally 183 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: express itself in higher yields is going to be camped 184 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 1: down by the FED and money is gonna have to 185 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:03,720 Speaker 1: find itself somewhere else, So it's going to express itself 186 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,320 Speaker 1: in dollar weakness. So inflation is going to be dollar weakness, 187 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 1: not higher yields because of the Fed. Does it matter 188 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:12,559 Speaker 1: to you, Peter is a market guy that the economists 189 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:19,520 Speaker 1: are partitioning inflation among goods and services. Goods inflation, maybe 190 00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:24,160 Speaker 1: service sector looks like substantial disinflation. Does that stuff matter 191 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:26,839 Speaker 1: to you? It does a little bit. But I think 192 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:29,839 Speaker 1: over the long term we will see an equalization. I 193 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 1: do think if we get this infrastructure spending for the 194 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:35,920 Speaker 1: first time in a long long time, we might see 195 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 1: some real competition to hire mid level type employees, people 196 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: who can manage plants, people who can manage production facilities, 197 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 1: and that could actually create wage inflation, which has been 198 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: really lacking for the last ten years. So, given the 199 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: fact that you do think that bonds will sell off, 200 00:10:49,960 --> 00:10:52,400 Speaker 1: do you think that it is inconsistent for equities to 201 00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 1: continue to rally in tandem or do you think that 202 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:57,560 Speaker 1: they will continue uh their rush upward based on this 203 00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:01,199 Speaker 1: extra support fiscally as well as an improving economy with 204 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 1: the end of the pandemic. You know one thing, I'll 205 00:11:03,320 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: say It's probably gonna sound crazy, but I actually like 206 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 1: dividend stocks, and dividend stocks would normally do poorly as 207 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,880 Speaker 1: yields are rising, but dividend stocks did not respond at 208 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 1: all for the past two months to low yields. So 209 00:11:12,840 --> 00:11:14,760 Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see a little bit of a normalization, 210 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 1: almost what I'm calling a reversal trade. I would have 211 00:11:16,840 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 1: called it a reopening trade a couple of months ago, 212 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 1: but we moved so far beyond that, I think it's 213 00:11:20,920 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 1: a reversal trade. I do think big tech is particularly susceptible. 214 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: Depending on who wins, they may be a target for 215 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:30,480 Speaker 1: paying a lot of the bills, so I'd be a 216 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: little bit more nervous there. I continue to like the 217 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 1: performance that we've seen in reopening I really like the 218 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:37,560 Speaker 1: fact that the Russell two thousand has been doing well 219 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: of late, So I think we could see a real strong, 220 00:11:40,240 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 1: smaller company, domestic focused rally for the next two months 221 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 1: as the spending company. To let's separate these issues out, 222 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 1: because we standed can flight two different issues. I think 223 00:11:49,440 --> 00:11:52,959 Speaker 1: there are events that squeeze positions and there are events 224 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:55,760 Speaker 1: that drive durabile change. Now, the thing that pay put 225 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,439 Speaker 1: a worried about going into November is that we don't 226 00:11:58,480 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: have a result. The thing that squeezes positions is that 227 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 1: we do have one. That's the somebody, the who that 228 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 1: is what drives dura will change. Now, if somebody wins 229 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 1: i e. Biden, you get a democratic sweep, that will 230 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 1: squeeze positions. I would argue the other side as well, 231 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 1: if you've got a red wave that was squeeze positions too. 232 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 1: But what drives durable changes, that's the person the policy. 233 00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 1: Are we confined in the two issues at the moment, 234 00:12:24,280 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: I think a little bit. But I think when you 235 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:27,840 Speaker 1: really look beyond the message, and what's going to be 236 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 1: most important to me is will we get fiscal stimulus, 237 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 1: will we get infrastructure spending, Will we try and rebuild 238 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 1: a manufacturing base, and to me, the messaging from both 239 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 1: sides is actually very similar. So if I think about 240 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 1: what's going to be the most important next year is 241 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 1: do we drive fiscal stimulus, I think the answer is yes. 242 00:12:45,520 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: Regardless of who wins, how we pay for it might 243 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:49,839 Speaker 1: shift a little bit, but that's kind of why I'm 244 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 1: very optimistic, and I suspect that at the end of 245 00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 1: one we will have a better job situation in the 246 00:12:55,800 --> 00:13:00,559 Speaker 1: US than we had at the start of pay A 247 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:05,680 Speaker 1: cash offs. As always Piotr Academy Securities had a macross strategy. 248 00:13:06,840 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: You got to be in the market to play in 249 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 1: the market, and Robert Dahl of Moving has done that 250 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 1: for years. Bob dal joins us this morning. Bob, how 251 00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 1: do you stay in the market here with all this uncertainty? 252 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: You recognize that the underlying economic fundamentals and therefore earnings 253 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,679 Speaker 1: were in a reflationary period. You all just summed it 254 00:13:26,760 --> 00:13:30,559 Speaker 1: up very well. In the West, You're doing great, You're 255 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 1: doing great. You see, we're about to get amazing third 256 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 1: quarter g d P. I know that's history. The good 257 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 1: third quarter earnings, reasonable outlook for the fourth quarter, fiscal 258 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 1: policy package or not. We're seeing precious medals. We're seeing 259 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 1: industrial commodities moving up. We're obviously the stock market cyclicals 260 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 1: are beginning to do do a little bit better, and 261 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 1: even the bond market is waking up to say inflation 262 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 1: is not gonna be zero forever. What'd you make of 263 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 1: the relative still right now, Bob, between Europe the United States? 264 00:14:02,360 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 1: Three months ago, the happy talk around Europe was almost 265 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 1: defini and they don't hear much of it anymore. And 266 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 1: the momentum, relatively speaking, is not in Europe right now. 267 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 1: It's in the US, Bob, no question about it. Our 268 00:14:14,280 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 1: economy came back faster because our policy, mixed was gargantial 269 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 1: and fast. I mean, you can't find another period in 270 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 1: history monetary and fiscal policy was this quick and this aggressive, 271 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: and that has buoyed our economy and getting got us 272 00:14:29,000 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 1: out of what could have gotten to be a longer 273 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 1: and deeper recession when we shut the economy off. And 274 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 1: that's why the US is doing well. So I sense 275 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 1: where you want to be the United States over potentially Europe. 276 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 1: Let's talk about where in the United States you'd like 277 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: to be. Yesterday we saw that internal rotation that the 278 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 1: likes of JP Morgan, Government, Sacks and others are talking 279 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 1: about that moved to the cyclical parts of the equity market. Bob, 280 00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 1: why do you think we can have a sustainable move 281 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 1: there and not just a position squeeze. Well, there is 282 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 1: some position squeezing going on, no question. I think it's 283 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 1: not an either or. I think it's a both end. 284 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 1: If you've been successful in equities, you've had you know, 285 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 1: technology and healthcare, and not many small stocks and not 286 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 1: many cyclicals until the last few weeks. Now it's at 287 00:15:13,520 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: both end. We had to run, for example, in financials 288 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 1: yesterday today it might be the tech stocks coming on again. 289 00:15:20,080 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: We've had this rotation with an upward trend that's going 290 00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: to continue. I like some of the consumer cyclical names, 291 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 1: the best buys, Low's targets, even the some of the 292 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 1: home builders. I'm not giving up on healthcare. I think 293 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 1: they're there there, There are good news they're regardless of 294 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:39,360 Speaker 1: who gets selected. The stocks are not expensive, so they're 295 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:42,400 Speaker 1: the places I would camp out. Where's the cash flow? 296 00:15:42,960 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: Can you reinvested for some growth? And are you doing 297 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:50,880 Speaker 1: well and making up money and cash flow in an 298 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: environment that is post coronavirus. But the most read story 299 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,560 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg yesterday. How to do with Wall Street 300 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 1: analysts saying that a Biden win could be a bull 301 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: case for US equities. And there's a lot of pushback, 302 00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 1: people saying it's just people going with their political beliefs. 303 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 1: But Bob, do you adhere to this narrative that a 304 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 1: Democrat sweep both of the of the Senate, the House 305 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:17,440 Speaker 1: and the presidency would be positive for markets? Probably initially, yes, 306 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 1: because we will get a fiscal policy spending that will 307 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: buoy the economy further, probably more than of the re 308 00:16:24,960 --> 00:16:28,920 Speaker 1: election of Donald Trump, particularly if it's a mixed congress 309 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: in that sense. Longer term, you know, if you're gonna 310 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: have tax increases, are gonna have reregulation, that's not great 311 00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 1: for the market. So there could be this within the 312 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 1: air of the positive reflationary trade, as I mentioned, getting 313 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 1: a goose the bit from some fiscal policy spending, and 314 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 1: then people will wake up and say not so fast. Well, 315 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 1: and this has to do particularly with tech stocks, big 316 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: tex stocks, because not only do you have an increasing 317 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: antitrust sentiment that is growing certainly among the Democratic Party 318 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: in Washington, d C. But as you said, the talk 319 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,680 Speaker 1: tax changes that Joe Biden would implement would disproportionately hit 320 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 1: big tech companies. According to analysis by Bank of America, 321 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 1: would you go underweight tech in a Democrat suite? I 322 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:15,280 Speaker 1: wouldn't go underweight. I would probably have less in a 323 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 1: Democrat suite than I would if if the president is 324 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 1: re elected, but I wouldn't go underweight. The underlying growth 325 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:26,399 Speaker 1: is just so powerful. COVID was a positive for the 326 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:31,159 Speaker 1: tech sector. Look we're gonna have under either administration continued 327 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 1: queries of those companies, and look at Camel's nose under 328 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 1: the tent. The government wants more money from these companies, 329 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,440 Speaker 1: and they that will hurt the multiples. I'm not sure 330 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,200 Speaker 1: it's going to hurt the earnings. Hi, Bob, great to 331 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: catch up, sir, don't leave us along next time. All 332 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:56,320 Speaker 1: that ve chief eculty strategist, Thank you very much. Right 333 00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 1: now is something very spiritual. She is Carla Harris of Jacksonville, 334 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 1: who never said no. Starting with the Radcliffe Choral Society, 335 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: she carved out a singing a legit singing and music career, 336 00:18:08,800 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: including wonderful appearances at Carnegie Hall, and in the meantime 337 00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: worked for Morgan Stanley. She is now Vice Chairman and 338 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 1: Senior Senior Client Adviser. We're thrilled that Ms Harris could 339 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 1: join us this morning on things Wall Street, but also 340 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 1: things of this society in America right now, Carla, is 341 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:32,040 Speaker 1: a spirit that got you out of Jacksonville to Radcliffe. 342 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 1: Is it still there? I would have to say it's 343 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,280 Speaker 1: very much still here and the live and kick it. Tom, 344 00:18:37,280 --> 00:18:39,399 Speaker 1: how are you this morning? We're very good, wonderful to 345 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,320 Speaker 1: have you with us. I'd like you to interpret for 346 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,879 Speaker 1: us what Wall Street can do to allow a nation 347 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:49,400 Speaker 1: to heal and move forward. Yes, I'll tell you. One 348 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 1: of the things that Wall Street can do it as 349 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:53,960 Speaker 1: providers of capital, is to make sure that those who 350 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 1: don't have equal access to capital get that access. And 351 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 1: that's one of the things we've done in Morgan Stanley. 352 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:00,800 Speaker 1: As you know, Tom, we s thought of the Multicultural 353 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,840 Speaker 1: Innovation Lab four years ago and I'm so excited today 354 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:06,200 Speaker 1: because it's our demo days. So that's the big coming 355 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: out date where our companies, the nine companies that have 356 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:12,440 Speaker 1: been in the lab will be will be shown to investors. 357 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,199 Speaker 1: And we know that here through the acumen of Betsy 358 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:17,640 Speaker 1: gray Sick looking at banking and of course then there's 359 00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:21,120 Speaker 1: Ellen Zettner who's been killing it as well, and economics. 360 00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 1: Carla Harris, I want to know what we need to 361 00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 1: do to get the mathiness of your degree in economics 362 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: from a Harvard How do we get women, how do 363 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: we get minorities engaged in the joys of microeconomics? Well, 364 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 1: I'll tell you a lot of it is access to education, 365 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:43,679 Speaker 1: as you know, and then access to opportunities and the 366 00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 1: entrepreneurs that are out there. It's around access to capital because, 367 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:48,920 Speaker 1: as you know, women get less than three percent of 368 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:51,959 Speaker 1: traditional VC dollars and people of color get less than 369 00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:54,479 Speaker 1: two percent or one percent, depending on your source. So 370 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: I think that what we can do is to make 371 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: sure that they know where the capital is and give 372 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,639 Speaker 1: them a fair shot. And many cases, these entrepreneurs have 373 00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:03,720 Speaker 1: already been de risked by the time we even see 374 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 1: them because they've had such a much tougher journey. Carl Harris, 375 00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:11,160 Speaker 1: why have we been so bad at actually providing that, 376 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:15,080 Speaker 1: you know, that capital to people that needed and really 377 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:17,959 Speaker 1: be a turning point for this. Yeah, if I want 378 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 1: to be constructive, I'll tell you that the reason that 379 00:20:19,880 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 1: we've been bad at it is that people like to 380 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 1: lean on the excuse that they can't find any But 381 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: that's one of the things that we've been trying to 382 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,520 Speaker 1: fix through our podcast, Access and Opportunity is to highlight 383 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:31,959 Speaker 1: some of these great entrepreneurs and the highlight those have 384 00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 1: already invested. Because the more you put data out there 385 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 1: and the more you elevate the conversation, I think the 386 00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 1: more people will start to say, we're wait, there really 387 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,880 Speaker 1: is something there. And the companies that we've brought into 388 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 1: our lab have gone on to raise over thirty million 389 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,639 Speaker 1: dollars after they've been in the lab, which means we 390 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:50,399 Speaker 1: have been successful in raising the level of visibility. And 391 00:20:50,480 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 1: today we have over fifty four billion dollars that will 392 00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,840 Speaker 1: be represented among the investors that have come to our 393 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 1: virtual Demo day. Um Carla Harrison, I rememb're speaking many 394 00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 1: years ago, actually took are seeing the garden. She would 395 00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: go around when she was at the I m F 396 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:04,360 Speaker 1: speaking to heads of state who said, I would love 397 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:07,080 Speaker 1: to find a woman to fill that job as finance minister, 398 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,280 Speaker 1: as environment minister, but they're just not there. And she 399 00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: would show up literally and have a list and say, well, here, 400 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 1: I have a list of names that you could look 401 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:17,600 Speaker 1: at how can we incentivize people on Wall Street to 402 00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,399 Speaker 1: do more? Does it have to be does does diversity 403 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,280 Speaker 1: have to be part of their pay package? Well? I 404 00:21:23,320 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 1: think it. I think it has to be a part 405 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 1: of your intent and your objections, no objectives, no question 406 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 1: about it. Because if you want to avail yourself with 407 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 1: the best talent, you have to avail yourself of all 408 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 1: the talent that's in the marketplace. And that's really the 409 00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:39,119 Speaker 1: hallmark of good leadership. So I think you have to 410 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 1: be intentional about making sure you have the first thinking 411 00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 1: at the table or you're gonna have a gap and 412 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 1: you go to market strategy and expose yourself to competition 413 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: in a way that you never have before, especially going 414 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:52,919 Speaker 1: forward with millennials and zars really caring about this and 415 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,160 Speaker 1: Ms Harris, we are learning so much in this pandemic, 416 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,479 Speaker 1: all of us. It's been actually really humbling. Just as 417 00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 1: one stupid thing, I using a lot less paper than 418 00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 1: I did before this pandemic. They're serious things that are 419 00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: out there, and I would suggest the major constraint now 420 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 1: is it's been for decades, is the childcare in this nation. 421 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,600 Speaker 1: It's a major constraint. Jamie Diamonds talked about it at 422 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:21,160 Speaker 1: JP Morgan. I'm sure James Gorman has Morgan Stanley as well. 423 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:26,440 Speaker 1: How do we get to a childcare program that mimics 424 00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:30,679 Speaker 1: selected other developed nations. Well, I'll tell you many corporations, 425 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,439 Speaker 1: including my own, have created programs for working parents so 426 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:37,520 Speaker 1: that they will have places to keep their kids, or 427 00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 1: they'll have people that are available in emergencies. And I 428 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 1: frankly think on the other side of COVID nineteen you're 429 00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:45,680 Speaker 1: gonna see more and more companies think about a way 430 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 1: that they can be innovative around childcare. So you bring 431 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:52,280 Speaker 1: up a very good point up Carla Harris. From where 432 00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 1: I'm sitting, which is not in the US, it's really 433 00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,120 Speaker 1: quite you know, difficult to see a United States that's 434 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,960 Speaker 1: so divided ahead the election on all sorts of front 435 00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 1: what's the prescription for going forward? Well, you know, I 436 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,680 Speaker 1: I am certainly a glasshouf fool as kind of girl 437 00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,159 Speaker 1: as you know, and I do believe that on the 438 00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 1: other side of this global pandemic we will find a 439 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:16,720 Speaker 1: way to come together. I think that's one of the reasons. Frankly, 440 00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 1: if you really want to get spiritual about it, this 441 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,520 Speaker 1: has descented upon us to really make us focused on 442 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,960 Speaker 1: the fact that we're all interdependent and we all need 443 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,760 Speaker 1: each other at the end of the day. And this 444 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 1: is the first time in my lifetime and probably in yours, 445 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,920 Speaker 1: that this has been a common experience. And I'm hopeful 446 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 1: that because it's been a common experience, we will come 447 00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: together and find a common solution. And you're right, it's 448 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,879 Speaker 1: hurtful to see the divide, but I think you know, 449 00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:41,880 Speaker 1: on the other side of this, we'll find a way 450 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: to get together. How will it reshape Wall Street? How 451 00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:47,160 Speaker 1: will it reshape how we work from home or not? 452 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 1: What do you see as as a lasting legacy of 453 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:53,080 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. I think every company will have to rethink 454 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 1: it's it's real estate portfolio, how they work, how efficient 455 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,919 Speaker 1: people can can be with the right of technology. I 456 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,800 Speaker 1: think companies are seeing that for the first time. So 457 00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,120 Speaker 1: I think every company across every industry so of rethinking 458 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,120 Speaker 1: what do we need to look like, what's our optimal size? 459 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,359 Speaker 1: You know, how can we enable people to be even 460 00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 1: more productive and more importantly more innovative if they're not 461 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,640 Speaker 1: in the same space. And the big question is how 462 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 1: do you create and drive culture when you aren't under 463 00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:24,800 Speaker 1: the same root. That's the big question, Carl. What's the 464 00:24:24,880 --> 00:24:27,479 Speaker 1: question you get the most by clients of Morgan Stanley? 465 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:30,200 Speaker 1: What do they want to know about? What kind of economy, 466 00:24:30,200 --> 00:24:34,639 Speaker 1: world building? What kind of social cohesion will be post Well, 467 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:36,879 Speaker 1: the biggest question that that I've gotten, especially as a 468 00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 1: public speaker, is how do you lead when you're not 469 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:43,160 Speaker 1: in the same space? You know? How do you drive productivity? 470 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,679 Speaker 1: How do you keep people comfortable and focused and and 471 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 1: and really driving in the same direction and maximize your productivity? 472 00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:52,800 Speaker 1: And frankly, what I've been saying to leaders, especially when 473 00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 1: we went into this shelter in place protocol, there's three 474 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,440 Speaker 1: things that you must do. Number one, you must be visible. 475 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: Number two, you must be trained parent about what you 476 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,400 Speaker 1: know and what you don't know and more importantly, when 477 00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 1: you know it. And number three, you must be empathetic 478 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 1: and and that will allow you to create some stability 479 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:13,600 Speaker 1: and some certainty when people are craving stability and certainty 480 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 1: and you're not in the same place, and if you 481 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:19,800 Speaker 1: are authentic, which is number one, then they are apt 482 00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:24,359 Speaker 1: to follow you into this uncertain environment. Dependentic will also 483 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 1: hurt women more than than men. It will hurt you know, 484 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,480 Speaker 1: being people more than why. It's how do we address this, 485 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,680 Speaker 1: how do we rebalance this? Well, I have to tell 486 00:25:35,720 --> 00:25:38,000 Speaker 1: you I am not of the mind that it necessarily 487 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,800 Speaker 1: will put people out of disadvantage women and people of color, 488 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 1: because this is the first time in many ways that 489 00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 1: there's a level playing field. It used to be if 490 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 1: you're in the same place, you know, maybe someone share 491 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,119 Speaker 1: they went to the same school, or they golf together, 492 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,800 Speaker 1: and you might have been intimidated by approaching the leader 493 00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 1: because you saw them talking to someone else and you said, well, 494 00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:58,520 Speaker 1: I don't share playing golfer. I don't share having gone 495 00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:02,359 Speaker 1: to that school. But now everybody has to communicate in 496 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,159 Speaker 1: this way, so there is a level playing field. And 497 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 1: so now it's really about your own initiative to reach 498 00:26:07,760 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 1: out to someone and say, Hey, Tom, I wanted to 499 00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 1: have a conversation with you pre COVID. Can you give 500 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 1: me ten minutes on a zoom I'd like to walk 501 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,719 Speaker 1: through three or four things again, talk about my career. 502 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,399 Speaker 1: So now you can be very focused, very intentional, and 503 00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,640 Speaker 1: you can connect in the same way that everyone else 504 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: is connecting. So I actually think this has created a 505 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 1: bit of a level playing field, but your initiative must 506 00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 1: drive the connection, no question. He ever off to Miss 507 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,080 Speaker 1: Carla Harris. Thank you so much for joining us, Ay 508 00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,879 Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley, Vice Chair and Senior Client Adviser. Thanks for 509 00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to 510 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:48,240 Speaker 1: interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 511 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:52,119 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You 512 00:26:52,160 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.