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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by the FanDuel Sportsbook.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host Brendan glas Sheen, joined by Sean Zarillo

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Speaker 1: and Billy Ward. You know what that means? UFC Betting

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Speaker 1: preview in this episode or breaking down UFC on ABC

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Speaker 1: four this weekend from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

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Speaker 1: Five on the main card, seven prelims, looking at our

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Speaker 1: favorite underdogs, props and more, and we'll finish up with

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Speaker 1: the best bets. But first we will start with the

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Speaker 1: main event, as we always do. Jared Zeno Rosen strike

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Speaker 1: plus three ninety on the money line. He is a

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Speaker 1: significant underdog. He takes on chliat Don Almeida. He's at

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Speaker 1: minus five point fifty for the weekend. So knowing that

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Speaker 1: there is a big heavy favorite here, Zarrillo, I know

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Speaker 1: there will be other mechanisms in terms of how we

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Speaker 1: want to bet this main event. So what do you

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Speaker 1: make of the matchup and how do we want to

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Speaker 1: bet it?

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Speaker 3: Not a great betting fight and frankly, not a great

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Speaker 3: main event to put on. ABC. Not really sure what

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Speaker 3: the UFC is doing here. This fight not going to

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Speaker 3: go more than probably ten minutes and definitely not more

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Speaker 3: than fifteen, so there was no reason to make this

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Speaker 3: a main event and give them a five round fight.

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Speaker 3: We haven't seen Geltin Almeta extended yet, and I would

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Speaker 3: expect at some point some heavyweight has been able to

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Speaker 3: do it. But basically with his skill set at heavyweight

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Speaker 3: and light heavyweight, where I would expect him to eventually

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Speaker 3: move down to eventually, he's trying to compete in both divisions.

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Speaker 3: At the moment, one takedown seems to be enough for

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Speaker 3: him to win these fights. The grappling at heavyweight heavyweight

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Speaker 3: is just not at the same level as it is

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Speaker 3: at the lower weight classes. He is clearly a world

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Speaker 3: class Brazilian jiu jitsu practitioner, and he actually has pretty

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Speaker 3: good wrestling, which is not something you could say about

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Speaker 3: a lot of these BJJ guys. So he's able to

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Speaker 3: get to the back pretty easily, able to pick up

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Speaker 3: these two hundred and sixty five pounds men and slam them,

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Speaker 3: and I doubt that rosenstrike if he gets taken down,

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Speaker 3: is going to have anywhere near the same type of

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Speaker 3: resistance that shmil avdr Rokimov did in Jaelton's last fight,

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Speaker 3: So one takedown probably enough to win the fight. Rosenstrike

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Speaker 3: probably needs to catch out Meta coming in with an

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Speaker 3: uppercut or something like that to finish him or hurt

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Speaker 3: him before he's able to get to the legs. But

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Speaker 3: jelten to win in round one even money Jaelton under

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Speaker 3: one and a half rounds or the fight to end

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Speaker 3: under one and a half rounds is minus two fifteen.

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Speaker 3: I don't really see it getting past the seven and

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Speaker 3: a half minute mark. So even though that's jew stop,

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Speaker 3: a very jew stop under one and a half, actually

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Speaker 3: think it's probably a safe bet. Need to see where

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Speaker 3: I would set my price target aud for that, but

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Speaker 3: I will probably end up having some jolt in round

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Speaker 3: one and also the under one and a half.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so round one price at FanDuel minus one forty

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Speaker 1: is that play?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that's too steep. There are some even money

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Speaker 3: prices out there though, if you search around and that

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Speaker 3: at that point, you know, I believe fandult minus two

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Speaker 3: fifteen on the under one and a half. I would

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Speaker 3: just take the under one and a half at that point.

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Speaker 1: Very good, Billy Ward. How do our luck ratings for

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Speaker 1: UFC Charlotte factor into this potentially?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, not a ton. You know, as we the more heavyweights,

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Speaker 4: most of the heavyweight fights, they're just so likely to

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Speaker 4: end and finish that it's really hard to say that

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Speaker 4: a guy got lucky with that knockout or that rear

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Speaker 4: naked choke and round one. You know. So not something

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Speaker 4: that I love from a luck ratings angle, you know,

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Speaker 4: and if this weren't the main event, I probably wouldn't

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Speaker 4: be betting it. Sean brought up some good points. It's

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Speaker 4: interesting that he's came up to heavyweight ji Yelton. That is,

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Speaker 4: he's not really all that big. He weighed in like

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Speaker 4: low two thirties this time, could probably pretty easily still

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Speaker 4: make two oh five. But if you look at around

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Speaker 4: at the talent in both those divisions, and especially the

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Speaker 4: grappling ability at heavyweight, it's just so much worse. There's

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Speaker 4: just not a lot of big athletic people who want

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Speaker 4: to be MMA fighters because they can make way more

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Speaker 4: money playing football or basketball, So we don't get the

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Speaker 4: best athletes in those heavyweight classes. So you know, I

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Speaker 4: think he kind of sticks a heavyweight here, and as

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Speaker 4: Shoan pointed out, so far he's only needed one takedown

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Speaker 4: to win all of his fights. The only angle I

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Speaker 4: see here is what if he doesn't finish Biggie Boy

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Speaker 4: with that first takedown. He's given up on the Officially

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Speaker 4: on the scales thirty four pounds, but I'm guessing Rosenstroke

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Speaker 4: had to cut some significant weight to make two sixty five,

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Speaker 4: so he could be at a forty fifty pound deficit

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Speaker 4: by the time the cage store closes. My only thought

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Speaker 4: is if Biggie Boy's able to survive that first trip

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Speaker 4: to the ground, maybe we play him live. You know,

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Speaker 4: every round has to start back on his feet. He's

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Speaker 4: got a good puncher shot, and if he just gets

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Speaker 4: dominated in that first round but somehow makes it to

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Speaker 4: the bell, we could get a ridiculous line on him.

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Speaker 4: You know, he's plus three to ninety pre fight. He

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Speaker 4: gets beat up in round one, that could be plus

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Speaker 4: five plus six hundred. I think the luckiest outcome is

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Speaker 4: Gelton takes him down and finishes him. But if he

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Speaker 4: doesn't and we can get a real juicy price, I

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Speaker 4: play that too.

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Speaker 1: So do you have as of right now, you're passing

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Speaker 1: you might wait and go live.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, definitely, I'm not betting anything pre fight. You know,

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Speaker 4: under one and a half at minus two fifteen is

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Speaker 4: just a ridiculous line if you look at it in

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Speaker 4: a vacuum, not under the context of this fight. Shan's right,

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Speaker 4: those are the sharper sides, But man, paying more than

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Speaker 4: two to one just to get under one and a

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Speaker 4: half seems insane. So I'm going to hope Biggie Boy

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Speaker 4: can survive a little bit early on make it an

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Speaker 4: interesting fight, but pre fight nothing.

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Speaker 3: As Billy said, if this wasn't a main event and

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Speaker 3: not a fight that I had to write up or

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Speaker 3: talk about on a weekly basis, this would be a

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Speaker 3: pretty easy pass considering where the prices are. But I

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Speaker 3: think that under one and a half is pretty safe

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Speaker 3: back to cash. Maybe I'll throw it in a parlay

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Speaker 3: with something on.

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Speaker 1: So like I should add to the early preliminary card

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Speaker 1: and the regular prelims. They are starting at eleven thirty

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Speaker 1: a m. Eastern on ESPN, plus main cards available on

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Speaker 1: ABC at three pm Eastern, so earlier start to the

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Speaker 1: day and Charlotte do that, you know, keep that in

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Speaker 1: mind when you are getting your selections in you can't

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Speaker 1: wait till at the end of the day on Saturday,

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Speaker 1: so keep that in mind. Our favorite underdogs for UFC Charlotte.

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Speaker 1: Where are we looking this week?

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Speaker 3: Soarallo Douglas Silva, Dan Droje, the most ripped thirty seven

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Speaker 3: year old man on the planet. Not going to get

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Speaker 3: into how he looks in the shape that he does

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Speaker 3: at his age, but he's thirty seven. That is the

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Speaker 3: main concern here. He's looked great though, even in the

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Speaker 3: latter part of his career, and Corey Cody Stamon's thirty

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Speaker 3: three years old. It's not like he is some young buck.

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Speaker 3: He's a control wrestler, and we've seen these control wrestler types,

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Speaker 3: these point fighting wrestler types become less effective as the

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Speaker 3: UFC or AS mma is sort of geared scoring much

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Speaker 3: more towards damage in recent years. So it's hard to

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Speaker 3: envision Stamen winning a clean fifteen minute fight where he

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Speaker 3: dominates and covers a favorite price tag unless he has

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Speaker 3: top position the entire time. He's not some particularly potent

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Speaker 3: finisher on top. I would expect DSDA Douglas Silva Dandroje

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Speaker 3: to win a lot of the scrambles, even if he's

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Speaker 3: taken down, I don't get back to his feet pretty frequently,

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Speaker 3: land more strikes, be coming forward and land more damage

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Speaker 3: on his opponents over the course of fifteen minutes. I

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Speaker 3: think they'll have the better optics for the judges just

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Speaker 3: in terms of the striking and what he's going to

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Speaker 3: be doing. Obviously Stamen is the wrestling upside, but I

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Speaker 3: don't really see him as this guy who's going to

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Speaker 3: land ten minutes a top time and sort of completely

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Speaker 3: control the fight against the guy who's athletith Athletic is

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Speaker 3: the SDA so Douglas silvadanroj plus one thirty on the

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Speaker 3: money line, one of a few underdogs that I like

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Speaker 3: on this card, And actually I have seen this card

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Speaker 3: get a lot of hate. I don't mind it at

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Speaker 3: all from a betting perspective. I think there's some fun fights.

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Speaker 3: Just the main event is terrible.

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Speaker 2: Billy.

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Speaker 1: You're also looking at the prelim card for an underdog.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, as Sean said, love a ton of underdogs on

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Speaker 4: this card, but I'm looking to the immortal Matt Brown.

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Speaker 4: Interesting fighting he's taken on court.

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Speaker 3: McGee.

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Speaker 4: We give the UFC a hard time when they throw

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Speaker 4: these older legend type fighters in with some young up

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Speaker 4: and coming prospect. They're doing right by these guys. You know,

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Speaker 4: McGee is almost thirty nine himself. Matt Brown two. I

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Speaker 4: would not be shocked if we saw ed Herman Zach

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Speaker 4: Cummins double retirement after this fight. But I think Brown

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Speaker 4: should be the A side here despite being plus money.

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Speaker 4: He's certainly lost a step. You know, he was a

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Speaker 4: perennial top five guy for a few years in there,

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Speaker 4: but I think he lost a step that Court McGee

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Speaker 4: never really had. You know, McGee has not been a

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Speaker 4: great striker in his career. I believe Matt Brown has

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Speaker 4: the record for most knockouts at welter white. Brown also

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Speaker 4: a super underrated grappler like MIAMMA Team ten twelve years ago.

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Speaker 4: We'd watch Matt Brown fights and be all fired up

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Speaker 4: at the gym to try some transition or submission that

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Speaker 4: he pulled off. I think people are overlooking that part

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Speaker 4: here with McGhee, and it's almost priced as if Matt

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Speaker 4: Brown is the older, slower fighter and he's fighting someone

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Speaker 4: in their prime. That's not the case with McGee. He

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Speaker 4: was brutally knocked out by Jeremo Maya Wells in his

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Speaker 4: last fight. They're both two and five over the last five.

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Speaker 4: This one should be about to pick them At worst.

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Speaker 4: I would honestly make Brown a slight favorite if I

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Speaker 4: hadn't seen the Lions. So at plus one eighty or so,

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Speaker 4: that's a great value.

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Speaker 1: Our fight of the night that we are highlighting for

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Speaker 1: UFC Charlotte, we've got but Ian Gary at minus two

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Speaker 1: ninety he takes on Daniel Rodriguez plus two twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I want to go to Billy first here because looking

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Speaker 1: at your luck ratings article again, you can check that

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Speaker 1: out actionnetwork dot Com, Action Network app. Billy writes up

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Speaker 1: some edges that he might find for each UFC week,

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Speaker 1: and Billy, you've considered Rodriguez to be undervalued. Explain Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I also did a full fight breakdown on this one

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Speaker 4: on the Action Network, and I'm just I haven't been

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Speaker 4: as impressed with Ian Gary as the hype around him

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Speaker 4: would suggest. You know, he's Irish, which is obviously a

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Speaker 4: big thing. Cage Fourriors Champion. I think they're really trying

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Speaker 4: to push him as this next Connor McGregor type, and

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Speaker 4: he's four and zero in the UFC two knockouts in there,

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Speaker 4: but they've all been scary. Like every one of those fights,

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Speaker 4: he's had some big moment where he's hurt, he gets wobbled,

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Speaker 4: something bad happens, and he's been able to recover. But

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Speaker 4: this is a huge step up in competition against Dee Rod.

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Speaker 4: D Rod seven and two in the UFC. He's no

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Speaker 4: slouch here. Everyone else that Gary has fought has had

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Speaker 4: a losing record. De Rod's also left handed and has

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Speaker 4: a similar reach as Gary. Gary's best thing is he'll

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Speaker 4: step just out of range and land some straight shots.

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Speaker 4: I don't know if that's going to be there against

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Speaker 4: Daniel Rodriguez. Between the south paw matchup and then the

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Speaker 4: similar reach, it's going to be a tight one because

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Speaker 4: Rodriguez loves to swarm forward and throw big left hands.

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Speaker 4: Gary loves to step just out of range and counters

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Speaker 4: straight rights. I think it's going to be kind of

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Speaker 4: a pick them with which one of those things able

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Speaker 4: to land first. Gary in theory, has the grappling advantage here.

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Speaker 4: He's at judo black belt. Rodriguez a little bit rough

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Speaker 4: around the ground, but I don't think Gary wants to

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Speaker 4: use it. We haven't seen him do it yet. I

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Speaker 4: don't see any reason why he would do it now,

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Speaker 4: So that's the bit that scares me a little bit.

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Speaker 4: But I think the striking exchanges should be roughly even here.

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Speaker 4: You can get Rodriguez's highest plus two to fifty certain

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Speaker 4: places in the market, but the plus two twenty five

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Speaker 4: is a fine line too.

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Speaker 1: Zarrillo, you have similar sentiments on Rodriguez this weekend.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and Gary a guy who I've been waiting for

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Speaker 3: the right spot to bet against, and I think this

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Speaker 3: is a good one given the price tag, especially in

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Speaker 3: Daniel Rodriguez. The last time he and Gary was at

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Speaker 3: size parody because he is pretty long for the division.

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Speaker 3: He faced Jordan Williams in his UFC debut and he

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Speaker 3: lost the first round pretty cleanly. I believe he did

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Speaker 3: score the knockdown at the end of the or the

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Speaker 3: knockout that he got at the end of the first round,

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Speaker 3: but he was losing minutes the entire time until he

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Speaker 3: landed a big counter and he closes. I believe a

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Speaker 3: minus four hundred or minus five hundred favorite in that

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Speaker 3: matchup pretty steep. Daniel Rodriguez is a pretty solidified top

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Speaker 3: fifteen gatekeeper at the UFC level. He's thirty seven. Gary

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Speaker 3: should have the speed advantage, but I think Rodriguez has

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Speaker 3: the timing advantage and certainly the better experience, better strength

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Speaker 3: of schedule, better competition that he's faced in the past.

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Speaker 3: Billy mentioned the potential grappling advantage for Gary, I'm not

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Speaker 3: sure that he's going to be able to take Dani

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Speaker 3: Rodriguez down, even if he wants to. Dee Rod's a

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Speaker 3: really physical guy, a really sturdy guy, and I could

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Speaker 3: actually see Dee Rod winning some clinch battles here, putting

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Speaker 3: Gary's back against the cage, beating him up a little

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Speaker 3: bit in the clinch. He's pretty strong in the clinch

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Speaker 3: if you can't get him down. So Daniel Rodriguez should

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Speaker 3: cover his price tag pretty easily in this matchup. It's

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Speaker 3: just a question of whether the judges are going to

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Speaker 3: want to give him a competitive decision. But I have

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Speaker 3: a hard hard time seeing this not being a competitive fight.

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Speaker 3: And given the durability on either side, I would say

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Speaker 3: d Rod probably hits harder and is the more durable

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Speaker 3: guy too, So across the board, Dani Rodriguez should be

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Speaker 3: competitive here, and the finishing up side might be more

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Speaker 3: in his corner, so de Rod by knockout at plus

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Speaker 3: eight hundred. Considering we've seen Gary wobble battle in the past,

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Speaker 3: I believe he would have been finished by song canon

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Speaker 3: if Kanan hadn't followed him to the ground. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: d Rod money line plus T forty knockout plus eight

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Speaker 3: hundred certainly easy bets for you to make, real.

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Speaker 4: Quick for it to move on. Tean mentioned the durability.

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Speaker 4: I believe Daniel Rodriguez, not even just in the UFC,

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Speaker 4: but as a pro, has never been knocked out, only

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Speaker 4: finished was a submission lost to Neil Magne, which no

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Speaker 4: shame in that, you know, and he was actually probably

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Speaker 4: winning that fight it too. But yeah, I don't think

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Speaker 4: Daniel Rodriguez allows Gary to get hurt and recover the

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Speaker 4: way his past opponents have because almost every one of

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Speaker 4: his fights he's been hit kind of rocked pretty badly,

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Speaker 4: but they've led him off the hook. I think that

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Speaker 4: experience that Sean pointed out allows him to finish that

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Speaker 4: if he is able to hurt him.

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Speaker 3: He was winning that Magni fight, but he probably lost

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Speaker 3: that split decision of Leach. I'm not sure if you

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Speaker 3: mentioned that in your Luck ratings. A lot of people

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Speaker 3: thought Lee Jing Lang won that fight against thee Rod,

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Speaker 3: But again, like he's competitive in every fight. He's never

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Speaker 3: out of any fight, He's never been knocked out, and

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Speaker 3: all of his decisions win or loss are closed. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: kind of a guy who fights to the level of

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Speaker 3: his competition, for good or bad.

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Speaker 4: In that Leach fight, I kind of I mentioned in

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Speaker 4: the luck ratings, like, I'm kind of just throwing that

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Speaker 4: one out because it came together on twenty four hours

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Speaker 4: notice because of the Hamzat thing, and we'll look past

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Speaker 4: that one. I didn't want to put too much stock

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Speaker 4: in that for anyone involved.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely, I just double checked it. He has never been

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Speaker 1: knocked out. Daniel d Rod Rodriguez has not been knocked out. Also,

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Speaker 1: if you like that Ko price might want to jump

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Speaker 1: on it. Fandul's price coming down. It's a plus six fifty,

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Speaker 1: so if you like it, probably want to jump on

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Speaker 1: before that number continues to move in the wrong direction

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Speaker 1: for our purposes. Okay, into props for UFC Charlotte. Where

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Speaker 1: we look in Zerrilla you said you liked underdogs on

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Speaker 1: the card. What about props.

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Speaker 3: Would we like going back to the fight that Billy

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Speaker 3: already talked about Court McGee and the Immortal Matt Brown.

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Speaker 3: Very surprised that the pricing for this bout to end

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Speaker 3: inside the distance. I would have thought it would be

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Speaker 3: minus one ten to minus one fifty at worse. But

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Speaker 3: we can get plus money on a fight where the

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Speaker 3: combined age is eighty years old. Two guys to potentially

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Speaker 3: knock one another out. We also see all the time

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Speaker 3: in these like these veteran fights, these guys in their

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Speaker 3: late thirties, they don't really grapple. Sometimes they just want

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Speaker 3: to throw down and get that fight of the nyponus.

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Speaker 3: As they're on their way out of the UFC. I'm

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Speaker 3: sure the fans are going to be hype this fight.

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Speaker 3: And if these two guys are throwing down in the

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Speaker 3: middle of the octagon, I think the fans might encourage

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Speaker 3: them to keep going. It just might be that type

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Speaker 3: of vibe where it's like, yeah, these guys are going

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Speaker 3: to throw down until somebody falls. So forty years old

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Speaker 3: average age on either side of the fight fight end

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Speaker 3: inside the distance of plus one twenty. I would love

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Speaker 3: for somebody to go back and tell me all the

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Speaker 3: fights in UFC history where the kambied age is over

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Speaker 3: seventy five, and see what the finish rate is, because

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Speaker 3: it has to be pretty high, so plus plus one

337
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Speaker 3: twenty on this fight to end by finish seems crazy

338
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Speaker 3: giving the ageable fighters, the fact that Court McGee has

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Speaker 3: just knocked out so badly. How hard Matt Brown hits

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Speaker 3: and frankly Matt Brown, I see he gets the forty

341
00:15:28,560 --> 00:15:31,040
Speaker 3: years old his chin is gone as well. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: pretty easy bet again for me to make it plus money.

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Speaker 1: Another inside the distance bet from Billy but a different fight.

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Speaker 1: What do you got?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm looking at the opener between Jessica rose Clark

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Speaker 4: and I believe it's Tyanar Liz Boa. I don't know

347
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Speaker 4: a ton about Liz Boa. I don't have a lot

348
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Speaker 4: of MMA tape on her, but she has some Muay

349
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Speaker 4: Thai world champion. She's been in there with Valentina Chevchenko

350
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Speaker 4: all five of her professional wins. She's finished. Huge question

351
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Speaker 4: about her grappling game right, like she could be a

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Speaker 4: total fish out of water. I think Oscar rose Clark

353
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Speaker 4: is actually a fairly adept grappler. I'd say she's slightly

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Speaker 4: better at grappling than striking. But this feels like one

355
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Speaker 4: where if Jessica Rose Clark can bring us to the

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Speaker 4: ground and has the advantage we think she has on

357
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Speaker 4: the ground, should be a pretty easy finish that way,

358
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Speaker 4: and if she can't take her down, Liz bo is

359
00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,960
Speaker 4: a tremendously better striker, So it feels super binary this way,

360
00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,640
Speaker 4: where one fighter is gonna have a huge advantage no

361
00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:23,760
Speaker 4: matter where it takes place, and we can get plus

362
00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:26,600
Speaker 4: one thirty eight ten inside the distance. That's pretty close

363
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Speaker 4: to in line with the divisional average for the female

364
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:32,160
Speaker 4: one thirty five. You know, the bigger women's divisions also

365
00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:34,560
Speaker 4: have more finishes than the lighter one, so I'm not

366
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Speaker 4: sure that the market has that priced inaccurately as well.

367
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Speaker 3: Jar See also coming back off of a pretty bad

368
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Speaker 3: injury too, right, didn't she have her her arm snapped

369
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Speaker 3: in her last loss, So just another thing to keep

370
00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:46,840
Speaker 3: an eye out for. You know, you have that injury

371
00:16:46,920 --> 00:16:49,720
Speaker 3: factor to add into the fight, potentially ending early.

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Speaker 1: Okay, And as we normally do our final bets Best

373
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Speaker 1: bets are some some short favorites that we would like

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Speaker 1: to wrap with. Zrilla.

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Speaker 3: You can go first, and we'll go to Billy Anthony

376
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Speaker 3: the lion hurts Smith at a pick em price minus

377
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Speaker 3: one ten. He's the better MMA fighter in this matchup.

378
00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:11,359
Speaker 3: Johnny Walker the better athlete, but Smith just seems like

379
00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 3: the type of guy who could be kryptonite for Johnny Walker.

380
00:17:14,080 --> 00:17:17,359
Speaker 3: He has a bunch of finish losses in his MMA career.

381
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Speaker 3: He's lost fourteen of his seventeen career losses by finish

382
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Speaker 3: in fifty three career fights. So I think the UFC

383
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:27,679
Speaker 3: ses this is a potential another highlight for Johnny Walker

384
00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:29,960
Speaker 3: to add to his reel. But for me, this is

385
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Speaker 3: a very similar fight to Smith as what he faced

386
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Speaker 3: in Ryan's span, just in terms of the crazy early volatility,

387
00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:39,360
Speaker 3: knowing he needs to survive the early storm and then

388
00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:42,160
Speaker 3: eventually flipping the momentum and putting it on his younger

389
00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:44,680
Speaker 3: opponent who's looking to rise up the rankings. So Anthony

390
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 3: Smith at minus one ten, I think he has vastly

391
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Speaker 3: more ways to win the fight, and I think after

392
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Speaker 3: the first few minutes this should definitely be his fight

393
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Speaker 3: to lose. I'm expecting him to take up Walker down

394
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Speaker 3: and beat him up on the ground, if not sumit him.

395
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Speaker 3: So Anthony Smith minus won ten saw his inside the

396
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,399
Speaker 3: distance line is plus one fifty, so not much value

397
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:03,960
Speaker 3: in that compared to his money line.

398
00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:07,680
Speaker 1: All right, Billy, you're going to go to the prelim

399
00:18:07,800 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 1: card for one last bet.

400
00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:10,439
Speaker 3: Yeah.

401
00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:12,880
Speaker 4: Back to the same fight I mentioned ending inside the distance,

402
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,960
Speaker 4: going back to tyn R Liz Boa, Sean pointed out

403
00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:19,000
Speaker 4: stole my thunder a little bit on the broken arm

404
00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:22,560
Speaker 4: angle from jesse Jass. We're not sure how she's going

405
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,240
Speaker 4: to recover. She's also just like a really low level

406
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 4: UFC fighter, where in more competitive divisions probably still wouldn't

407
00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:31,399
Speaker 4: be employed. You know, she's won two of her last five,

408
00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:33,600
Speaker 4: finished in the first round of both of her last two.

409
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Speaker 4: I just think that one one dominant skill set that

410
00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 4: lis Boa has is going to rule the day here.

411
00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,480
Speaker 4: We haven't really seen a ton of great striking from

412
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Speaker 4: Jessica Rose Clark, and when you have a fighter who's

413
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Speaker 4: been so dominant one sport, kind of seems like the

414
00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:50,280
Speaker 4: UFC wants to make this a showcase fight for Tayanara

415
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 4: more so than you know, have an average fighter get

416
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,080
Speaker 4: a little bit more shine. So looking at Lisbo's money line,

417
00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,199
Speaker 4: it's moved a little bit. This was another luck rankings

418
00:18:59,200 --> 00:19:01,359
Speaker 4: fight that I mentioned and still like it at minus

419
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Speaker 4: one fifteen. Obviously would have liked the you know, plus

420
00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:05,640
Speaker 4: one oh five earlier in the week, but I'd take

421
00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 4: it down to about minus one thirty. She should be

422
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:08,440
Speaker 4: the better fighter.

423
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Speaker 3: Here, Pard, not just the broken arm. Also tore her

424
00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,479
Speaker 3: ACL a couple of years ago too. She's only had

425
00:19:12,480 --> 00:19:14,280
Speaker 3: a couple fights since hearing her ACL and she's one

426
00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:17,199
Speaker 3: and two. So yeah, she's thirty five, getting up there

427
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:21,000
Speaker 3: in age injuries, mounting up its spot where it'll probably

428
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:23,439
Speaker 3: take the younger fighter who is on the way up.

429
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Speaker 1: So last week and we were dabbling on horses as

430
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Speaker 1: well with the Kentucky Derby. I'm fascinated, guys with this

431
00:19:30,119 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 1: earlier start to the day Zillo bill. You're both baseball

432
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Speaker 1: guys too, So how do you consume the day? Well,

433
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Speaker 1: you've got fights taking place in the morning into the afternoon,

434
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Speaker 1: and we've got several day baseball games. This is a

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Speaker 1: complete wrinkle.

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Speaker 3: You order food early or you stock up the fridge

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00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,840
Speaker 3: on Friday, that's for sure, you know. I went to

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00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 3: the UFC Gong Island card which started at the same time,

439
00:19:52,280 --> 00:19:54,679
Speaker 3: and it was really nice in terms of leaving the

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00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,120
Speaker 3: card at seven pm and just like having the rest

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Speaker 3: of the night because I've also gone to the MSG cards,

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00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:02,400
Speaker 3: the A P review cards that don't start until seven pm,

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Speaker 3: and you're not getting home till four thirty in the morning.

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Speaker 3: So in terms of attending the event, it's actually very nice.

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Speaker 3: You still have the whole night ahead of you. Good.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I like these early ones. While I bet in

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00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 4: Project Baseball, I don't watch a ton of baseball. Also,

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00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 4: my niche is the first inning, so you know, it

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00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 4: doesn't take a lot of time. You finished that figure

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00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 4: that first inning bet out, and then I'm back to

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Speaker 4: the fight, so I might flip it on for a

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00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 4: couple of those. But that's about it for me.

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Speaker 1: I'm glad you brought that up. You can find Billy's

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Speaker 1: Nerfy picks over at action network dot com. Is Nerfy

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Speaker 1: write ups You've got you still doing those, right, yes, sir?

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00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, Green dot Daily. Later today I'll be on there

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00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:36,399
Speaker 4: to discuss the model and depth.

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Speaker 1: Beautiful Friday, May twelfth, you can find Billy. This should

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00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 1: be out by then, so you can catch Billy on

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00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,560
Speaker 1: Green Dot Daily for some Nerfee picks. Of course, you

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00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 1: can find his luck ratings up at actionnetwork dot com

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00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 1: in the app, he breaks down a couple of fights

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00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 1: where he season edge potentially okay fellas good stuff. That's

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00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 1: going to do it for UFC on ABC Betting Preview again.

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00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 1: You can catch the fights eleven thirty am. The prelim

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00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:03,159
Speaker 1: star on ESPN plus main card at three pm on

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00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:06,840
Speaker 1: ABC thanks to Billy Ward Shawn Zillo. Find them in

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00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 1: the app if they add anything else for the weekend,

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00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 1: and that's it. Frendy Glasheen signing off. Thanks for tuning

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Speaker 1: in to our UFC Betting preview on the Action Network

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00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:21,000
Speaker 1: podcast presented by FanDuel. Have a fantastic weekend. We'll talk

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00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 1: to you next week. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,680
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,600
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred Gambler