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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody.

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Speaker 3: It is a gloomy day here in Washington, gloomy fitting

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Speaker 3: the mood of the global economy in Crystal.

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Speaker 1: So what do we have today?

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Speaker 2: Yes, indeed, Trump is doubling down on his tariffs, no

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Speaker 2: sign of some big negotiation or walk back insight, and

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Speaker 2: global markets already in freefall this morning. This is before

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Speaker 2: the US market's officially open. So we decided to spend

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Speaker 2: the whole show basically talking about tariffs because this is

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Speaker 2: such monumental news with such massive cascading effects for everyone here.

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Speaker 4: And globally. So we're going to start with just the

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Speaker 4: details of where we are, what we know. Jeff Stein

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Speaker 4: is going to join.

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Speaker 2: He's going to weigh in on his latest reporting of

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Speaker 2: how this tariff scheme was developed. And also big fight

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Speaker 2: developing between two Trump supporters, Bill Ackman, who has now

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Speaker 2: come out against the tariffs, and Howard Lutnik, who of

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Speaker 2: course is the Commerce Secretary. We also have the very

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Speaker 2: latest polling about how Americans are feeling about all of this,

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Speaker 2: with the caveat being all of this polling really occurred

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Speaker 2: before the massive market movements, before these massive announcements, so

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Speaker 2: getting early indications though about how nervous Americans are about

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Speaker 2: this direction. Elon appears to be breaking with Trump over

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Speaker 2: tariffs and specifically getting into a bit of a battle

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Speaker 2: with Peter Navarro. Protests have also broken out nationwide. These

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Speaker 2: are not just about tariffs, but about overwhelming sort of

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Speaker 2: resistance among the Democratic base to Trump and Elon and

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Speaker 2: everything that's going on. So we wanted to take a

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Speaker 2: look at that as well. Was the first really big

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Speaker 2: nationwide organized resistance to Trump two point zero, and we're

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Speaker 2: going to have a nice discussion debate between Rocanna and

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Speaker 2: orn Cass should be interesting to get both of their perspectives.

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Speaker 2: Grow us not some neoliberal like Free Trader. He has

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Speaker 2: a nuanced view on tariffs. I'm interested to hear or

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Speaker 2: and explain exactly how he feels about everything that is

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Speaker 2: going on and how this plan is being implemented right

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Speaker 2: now as well.

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Speaker 3: That's right, or the more serious person that we could

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Speaker 3: find that will actually defend some of at least what

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Speaker 3: is going on here, So we wanted to make sure

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Speaker 3: we did that. Yeah, as Crystal said, though, it's going

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Speaker 3: to be a tariff special here. Thank you very much

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Speaker 3: to all our premium subscribers out there. By the way,

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Speaker 3: the best way that everybody could help with our show

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Speaker 3: right now is really just like subscribe and to share it,

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Speaker 3: especially if you're listening on the podcast is texted to

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Speaker 3: a friend. Especially, I know tariff's very sensitive subject and

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Speaker 3: a lot of people are trying to wrap their heads

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Speaker 3: around what's going on. So that's why we wanted to

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Speaker 3: really dedicate this to everybody, and it is I think

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Speaker 3: best listened to as a whole. All right, let's go

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Speaker 3: ahead and start with the tariffs, is Crystal said, Let's

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Speaker 3: go put this up there on the screen, major movement

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Speaker 3: in the Asian and the European markets, basically a massive

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Speaker 3: implosion of all of the stock value across the globe

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Speaker 3: since the announcement of the tariffs. For those who are watching,

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Speaker 3: you can see various stock indices across the world that

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Speaker 3: are down. The minimum is in China down five percent,

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Speaker 3: although things changed actually just since we made this graphic.

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Speaker 3: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange having its worst days since

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Speaker 3: nineteen ninety seven in some fifteen percent drop overnight. Germany

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Speaker 3: down almost ten percent, Canada down, the UK down, the

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Speaker 3: United States down over fifteen percent in the Japanese Nicky Index,

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Speaker 3: I believe, with one of the worst days in the

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Speaker 3: history of that they even I think had to flip

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Speaker 3: their circuit breaker to set yeah trading over in Japan.

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Speaker 3: So you can just see what is occurring globally. No

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Speaker 3: sign from Donald Trump yet that he is backing down.

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Speaker 3: He spent the weekend in Florida golfing. We'll return to

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Speaker 3: that in a little bit on Air Force One, though

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Speaker 3: he did take a few questions.

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Speaker 1: Here's what he had to say, the pain in the market.

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Speaker 5: At some point, you're unwilling to tolerate this idea of

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Speaker 5: you're a threshold.

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Speaker 6: I think your question is so stupid.

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Speaker 5: I admit I think it's a I don't want anything

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Speaker 5: to go down, but sometimes you have to take meticine

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Speaker 5: to fix something. And we have such a horrible We

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Speaker 5: have been treated so badly by other countries because we

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Speaker 5: had stupid leadership that allowed this to happen. They didn't

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Speaker 5: get it spoken when.

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Speaker 7: They look at the fact that we have.

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Speaker 5: A billion dollar trade deficit. When you look at the

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Speaker 5: trade deficit that we have with certain countries, way over

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Speaker 5: a billion per country. With China, it's a trillion dollars,

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Speaker 5: and we have to solve our trade deficit with China.

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Speaker 6: We have a trillion dollar trade.

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Speaker 5: Deficit with China, hundreds of billions of dollars a year

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Speaker 5: with us with China, and unless we solve that problem,

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Speaker 5: I'm not going to make a deal.

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Speaker 3: Those comments would make sense, Crystal. I thought there were

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Speaker 3: just tariffs on China. Maybe some of us could get

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Speaker 3: behind that, but that's not really what's going on here.

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Speaker 3: We got to basically it's average some thirty percent tariff

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Speaker 3: across the world, including fifty percent or whatever on Vietnam.

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Speaker 3: Multiple countries calling the White House over the weekend might

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Speaker 3: be a bit difficult because the President is down golfing

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Speaker 3: in mar A Lago. He did win his golf championship though.

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Speaker 1: Congratulations. Well some good too, That's great, that's right. Let's

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Speaker 1: put this up there on the screen.

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Speaker 3: This is his latest from truth social We have massive

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Speaker 3: financial deficits with China, the European Union, and many others.

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Speaker 3: The only way this problem can be cured is with tariffs,

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Speaker 3: which are numbering tens of billions into the USA.

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Speaker 1: They are already in effect and a beautiful thing to behold.

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Speaker 3: The surplus with these countries has grown during the presidency

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Speaker 3: of Sleepy Joe Biden.

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Speaker 1: We are going to reverse it, and reverse it quickly.

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Speaker 3: Someday people will realize the tariffs for the United States

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Speaker 3: of America are a very beautiful thing. So there is

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Speaker 3: still yet no major movement there by the White House.

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Speaker 3: In terms of where we are here in the United States,

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Speaker 3: things are a bit all over the place. As we said,

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Speaker 3: the Japanese Index and the Hong Kong Index just absolutely

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Speaker 3: got destroyed overnight the United States markets. It's roughly like

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Speaker 3: two point five percent as of US right recording. Right now,

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Speaker 3: we can put that on the screen just in terms

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Speaker 3: of where everything is. The Nasdaq was down by about

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Speaker 3: two point eight percent. It honestly could extend much much worse.

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Speaker 3: It was even worse whenever the futures did open this morning.

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Speaker 1: Nobody really quite knows.

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Speaker 3: If, though, that the S and P does fall today

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Speaker 3: more than four percent for a third day in a row,

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Speaker 3: it will be the first time since the Great Depression.

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Speaker 1: And I think that's one of those.

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Speaker 3: Where it's always difficult to contextualize history, you know, when

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Speaker 3: it's actually happening. But the truth is is that we

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Speaker 3: are in one of the five great market crashes in

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Speaker 3: modern American history from the Great Depression, not just me

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Speaker 3: saying that the data indicates this is the worst crash,

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Speaker 3: not a listens March of twenty twenty. And then finally,

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Speaker 3: you know, to get to the inevitable retort, they're like, well,

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Speaker 3: why doesn't matter, and it's like, well, even if you

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Speaker 3: don't own any stocks, and that's fine, I think fifty

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Speaker 3: eight percent of Americans do. But for the rest of

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Speaker 3: the country and the bottom of the income scale, the

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Speaker 3: market and the liquidity in that market and the decision

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Speaker 3: making being driven by those companies that will affect one

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Speaker 3: hundred percent of us. You know, you could have owned

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Speaker 3: zero stocks in two thousand and nine and you still

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Speaker 3: would have suffered the consequences because you would not have

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Speaker 3: any access to the company wants to hire you, doesn't

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Speaker 3: have any access to cash, they have no market, they

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Speaker 3: have no liquidity, they have no ability to borrow. They're

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Speaker 3: going bus. You know, these capital markets, for better or

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Speaker 3: for worse, and I think for worse now do absolutely

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Speaker 3: rule our entire lives.

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Speaker 1: And we'll talk about that.

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Speaker 3: I think more in terms of tariff strategy, and what

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Speaker 3: I think the biggest flaw in the overall roll out

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Speaker 3: in the strategy was is that fact is is that

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Speaker 3: we're basically asking private markets to you know, act in

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Speaker 3: a way that we believe is beneficial to the state,

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Speaker 3: but with no real incentive, you know, both to the

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Speaker 3: company for the employer to minimize any sort of short

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Speaker 3: term not even short term, long term economic pain.

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Speaker 1: Now at this point that's another thing.

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Speaker 3: Everyone's like, oh, well, he could cut a deal, and

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Speaker 3: he could cut a deal and things could sert, just like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: they could. But you know, in the interim, there are

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Speaker 3: a lot of companies, even in this week that will

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Speaker 3: pay literally millions of dollars in tariffs. You can't just

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Speaker 3: take millions of dollars off of somebody's bottom line and

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Speaker 3: expect nothing to happen.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it just doesn't really work that way. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean that's where I continue to fall.

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Speaker 3: Even if this is a short term strategy, there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of pain in that short term strategy for millions

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Speaker 3: of people, not to mention them. Level of uncertainty in

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Speaker 3: the markets, in the overall pocketbooks, the amount of consumer

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Speaker 3: spending that's going to shrink as a result of this

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Speaker 3: genuinely cannot be overstated.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's I don't think anyone really knows how massive

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Speaker 2: the fallout is going to be. Like, there is no

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Speaker 2: limit to how bad it could be. And yeah, Trump

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Speaker 2: could walk back from it at any time. I mean

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Speaker 2: he walked back from the you know, the height of

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Speaker 2: the Canada and Mexico tariffs. This man, he's a mad man.

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Speaker 2: He's all over the place. But there's a big debate

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Speaker 2: on econ Twitter at this point of like we may

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Speaker 2: already be past the point of no return in a

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Speaker 2: certain respect because let's say today he comes out and says,

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Speaker 2: you know what, I've deals with fifty countries good enough,

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Speaker 2: We're rolling this back to you know, a lower level,

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Speaker 2: and we'll revisit it a month from now, which is

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Speaker 2: kind of the playbook that he's been running. Do you

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Speaker 2: think if you are someone making decisions for a major business,

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Speaker 2: a major manufacturing concern, like, is this going to give

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Speaker 2: you confidence to want to invest more in the United

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Speaker 2: States of America?

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Speaker 4: Of course not, of course not.

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Speaker 2: I mean if you're running any company, including our own,

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Speaker 2: by the way, thinking about how things are going to go,

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Speaker 2: and you know how people are feeling with a potential

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Speaker 2: recession coming and how their premium membership budget is looking

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Speaker 2: at this point like you are going to freeze in

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Speaker 2: place at best, and at worst you're going to start saying,

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Speaker 2: you know what, these people, this project that we had going,

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Speaker 2: that we were hopeful for for the future, this is

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Speaker 2: just not the environment to do it in. So in

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Speaker 2: some ways, even if at this point Trump were to

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Speaker 2: come out and say, just getting guys, you know, late

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Speaker 2: April Fool's joke, Liberation Day is over. Who is going

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Speaker 2: to want to invest in this climate? And you know,

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Speaker 2: I used to get really irritated with all the like

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Speaker 2: uncertainty talk because this was used against you know, any

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Speaker 2: sort of like progressive economic policy that would benefit working

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Speaker 2: class people or whatever. But at certain point, you really

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Speaker 2: do as a business owner, as an investor, as someone

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Speaker 2: who is an executive in a company, you need some

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Speaker 2: sort of stable policy climate in which to make decisions.

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Speaker 2: And you will not have that with this present period.

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Speaker 2: You will not have that with this president. And I

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Speaker 2: think given the you know, seesaw nature of American politics,

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Speaker 2: I think there are a lot of countries and a

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Speaker 2: lot of companies here and around the world that are saying,

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Speaker 2: I don't know if we'll ever have that with the

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Speaker 2: US again.

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Speaker 4: Period.

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Speaker 2: You know, a couple things that I just wanted to

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Speaker 2: emphasize from Trump's comments and why they sent the markets

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Speaker 2: into such a free fall. You know, last week, of

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Speaker 2: course there were significant market losses, but I think we

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Speaker 2: both had the feel of like it actually.

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Speaker 4: Could have been worse.

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Speaker 1: Oh, it could have been much.

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Speaker 2: Worth And the reason for that is because there was

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Speaker 2: still a hope on Wall Street of like Trump's going

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Speaker 2: to come on on Sunday before the future's market opens

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Speaker 2: and he's going to announce a bunch of deals and

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Speaker 2: he's going to step away from this and instead he

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Speaker 2: makes this comment sometimes you have to take the medicine

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Speaker 2: number one and seems to not care at all about

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Speaker 2: the nuclear bomb that he's dropped on the global economy,

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Speaker 2: which just on like a personal level, thinking about this

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Speaker 2: person's psychology, I cannot wrap my head around someone who

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Speaker 2: would drop this level bomb and then just go I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go play golf, I'm gonna go host a fundraiser

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Speaker 2: at mar A Lago like insanity. But so he says

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Speaker 2: that in no indication of making these deals, and the

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Speaker 2: in fact, he told his surrogates, I don't want you

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Speaker 2: to say these are a starting point for negotiations. No,

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Speaker 2: these are in place, and that's that. And then the

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Speaker 2: other thing he said that was so disconcerting is he's

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Speaker 2: holding onto this idea that if you have a trade

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Speaker 2: deficit with any country, no matter what the dynamics are,

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Speaker 2: Like we talked about Lesotho last week, right, this poor

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Speaker 2: African nation that we buy diamonds for and they're too

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Speaker 2: poor to afford our products, and in his mind, that

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Speaker 2: means that Lesotho is ripping us off. Okay, idiotic, stupid,

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Speaker 2: like the most Kindergarten level of understanding of trade you

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Speaker 2: could possibly imagine, but he reiterates that. And it matters

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Speaker 2: not only for understanding how stupid the policy is, which

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Speaker 2: most people I think already understand, but it also matters

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Speaker 2: because what deal can Lesotho make with us that's going

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Speaker 2: to fix that problem?

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Speaker 4: There isn't one.

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Speaker 2: So, you know, countries that had, in anticipation of Trump

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Speaker 2: loving tariffs had rolled back their terrri straight trying to

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Speaker 2: get ahead of it, say like Israel is one example

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Speaker 2: of that, like, look, we don't even charge you any tarffs.

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Speaker 4: They still got hit with tariffs.

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Speaker 2: There is no deal that you can make with virtually

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Speaker 2: any of these countries that's just going to close the

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Speaker 2: trade deficit overnight.

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Speaker 4: That is not how this works.

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Speaker 2: And so that was the other thing that made a

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Speaker 2: lot of investors go what the fuck because that indicates

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Speaker 2: there are no grand bargains or deals. This is not

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Speaker 2: just a negotiating tactic. May really be serious about moving

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Speaker 2: forward with this, and it is just as nonsensical as

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Speaker 2: it appears on its face when you're looking at you know,

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Speaker 2: the Penguin islands and this stupid formula that we're going

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Speaker 2: to talk more about that they may not even be

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Speaker 2: applying correctly. It really doesn't matter to him what the

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Speaker 2: carnage is, what the fallout is. You know, he has

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Speaker 2: this idea and has had about Terris number one and

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Speaker 2: number two.

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Speaker 4: He likes that.

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Speaker 2: He likes that the whole world is jumping at his moves.

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Speaker 2: He loves that all these countries are having to call

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Speaker 2: and scramble, that all these companies are going to come

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Speaker 2: on bended knee to try to get their car ount

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Speaker 2: to try to get their exemption. And he loves that

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Speaker 2: he can do all of this apparently without having a

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Speaker 2: consult a single person.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the power to raise.

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Speaker 2: Revenue and institute tariffs is supposed to be with Congress.

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Speaker 2: He's using eyepen in a very similar way to how

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Speaker 2: he's you know, using these sort of like national security

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Speaker 2: or national emergency car bounds to claim extraordinary powers from SOLFF.

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Speaker 2: That's what he's doing here with tariffs. There will be

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Speaker 2: court challenges. I don't know how that will go. I

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Speaker 2: don't think anyone knows really how that will go. But

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Speaker 2: he also likes. What he loves about this is that

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Speaker 2: it all comes down to him, and he can be

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Speaker 2: the dictator and he doesn't have to ask anyone for anything.

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Speaker 2: And all the chaos around him doesn't bother him one bit.

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Speaker 1: Well, I mean, why would it bother him?

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Speaker 3: As you said, it's very you know, it's something that

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Speaker 3: feeds his own conception of what's going on. But what

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Speaker 3: I just simply cannot move away from is there's genuine,

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Speaker 3: like massive pain not even being done necessarily to billionaires

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Speaker 3: or companies or anything. That's like real folks who have

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Speaker 3: retirement accounts who are watching these just evaporate. I mean, look,

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Speaker 3: let's also contextualize it correctly. You know, one year of

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Speaker 3: gains in the S and P five hundred are erased.

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Speaker 3: That means basically, if you had money over the last

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Speaker 3: year and you were chunking it away into your four

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Speaker 3: oh one k, and you were doing everything that you're

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Speaker 3: supposed to do, that money's gone or it's you know,

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Speaker 3: it's now it's actually down. And if you look at

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Speaker 3: over at the five year period, who was a common

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Speaker 3: talking point, oh my gosh, the SP five is up

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Speaker 3: over one hundred percent. Well now it's down to eighty two.

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Speaker 3: So now we're already back to twenty twenty four, you know,

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Speaker 3: style valuation. Let's wait another week. What are we going

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Speaker 3: to go back to twenty twenty three. You know the

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Speaker 3: backward clock that's ticking here for a lot of people,

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Speaker 3: layers of what preciseable percentage of the country which is

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Speaker 3: over sixty five, and size of percentage even more that

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Speaker 3: are over seventy. I was telling you this morning there

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Speaker 3: are a lot of people who are on retirement to

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Speaker 3: have mandatory withdrawals, you know, from their IRA accounts. So

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Speaker 3: what if you're literally forced to sell at the bottom.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's a that's a horrible thing to be

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Speaker 3: inflicting on people. Finally, as you and I just want

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Speaker 3: to really stick on this point with the capital markets,

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Speaker 3: the way that this is being basically rolled is we're

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Speaker 3: implementing this massive tariff and so if you want to

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Speaker 3: build here, you have to move here. We will not

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Speaker 3: compensate you at all in the interim. We are not

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Speaker 3: giving you a tax break. In fact, Steve Manution, the

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Speaker 3: former Secretary of the Treasury, was onto CNBC on Friday,

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Speaker 3: and I actually thought he gave a great answer.

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Speaker 1: He was like, look, of course we can have tariffs.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I'm pro tariff.

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Speaker 3: I know you are in some cases yeah as well, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: you know what that needs to be paired with a

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Speaker 3: dollar for dollar manufacturing credit and or infusion from capital

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Speaker 3: of Congress, which would mean what for Apple. Let's say

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Speaker 3: we want Apple to build an iPhone here in America

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Speaker 3: or build more of it. Okay, let's say five to

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Speaker 3: fifty percent of it something like that here in the

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Speaker 3: United States.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's going to cost X, Y, and z.

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Speaker 3: We will then acknowledge that we can have Apple pony

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Speaker 3: up some of that cash. Congress and then others the

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Speaker 3: administration will say we will also kick a tax credit

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Speaker 3: or a break to make sure that you don't fire

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Speaker 3: people in the interim and you don't rehab it on

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Speaker 3: our overall equities markets, which is what we're currently having.

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Speaker 1: There's none of that.

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Speaker 3: Actually, the Congress wants to remove manufacturing tax credits right

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Speaker 3: now so that they can pay for a permanent extension

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Speaker 3: or whatever.

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Speaker 1: Some of these corporates. That's that's why I want people

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Speaker 1: to understand.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 3: So the problem is that not only do we have

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Speaker 3: a massive teriff regime in place, we are actually currently

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Speaker 3: have a gop led Congress which wants to reduce the

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Speaker 3: amount of social spending that there is while extending corporate

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Speaker 3: tax rusts and not increasing manufacturing tax credits, which would

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Speaker 3: actually benefit all of the stated goal of bring things over.

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Speaker 1: And that's why I'm just like, this is so it's

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Speaker 1: not even stupid.

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Speaker 3: Stupid is something that doesn't necessarily bear consequences.

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Speaker 1: This has massive consequences.

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Speaker 3: And you know that's another thing too, where you know

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Speaker 3: the administration is really banking on like, oh well he

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Speaker 3: said he was going to do just like, well, okay,

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Speaker 3: hold on a second. Nobody nobody, And this is why

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Speaker 3: the markets crashed as they were ever floated a thirty

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Speaker 3: five for forty percent tariff.

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Speaker 1: Nobody floated.

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Speaker 3: When you say reciprocal tariffs, that's a word, it has

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Speaker 3: a meaning, it has a definitional term, right, And that

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Speaker 3: Bess Crystal. With the actual calculation from what I can

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Speaker 3: tell of whate reciprocal tariff would mean, even with currency

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Speaker 3: market manipulation and all, that is maybe five to ten percent.

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Speaker 3: Whenever it comes to China, on Japan, it would be five.

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Speaker 3: Actually it might even be zero if you factor in

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Speaker 3: a few other things. Do you know why he decided

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Speaker 3: not to do that because the number was not big enough.

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Speaker 3: So that's where this is ten times out of step.

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Speaker 3: Even with allegedly many of the things that he sold

402
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Speaker 3: on the campaign trail, and that is why you are

403
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Speaker 3: seeing the level of freak out. And look, very soon,

404
00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:21,320
Speaker 3: real voters, you're all going to start you were going

405
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Speaker 3: to feel this in a very real way. Screw retirement.

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Speaker 3: We're talking layout. We've already seen it. We've already seen

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Speaker 3: Stilantus layoffs nine hundred people in Michigan.

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Speaker 1: We've already seen people freeze investment.

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Speaker 3: Just wait, start asking around for people who are like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: we had a project and it got pulled. You're going

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Speaker 3: to see consultants go down if the pharma tariffs eventually

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Speaker 3: do go into place.

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Speaker 1: Oh my god, just good luck.

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Speaker 3: You know, to the entire US consulting industry, a centure

415
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Speaker 3: and those of people. Do I love those industries, No,

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Speaker 3: but there's a lot of people who work there and

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Speaker 3: they propel a lot of people there as well. If

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Speaker 3: we want to change things, we need tax credits, we

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Speaker 3: need capital infusion. Currently is a four to five hundred

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Speaker 3: billion dollars raised on people. If you take that out

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Speaker 3: of money out of the economy, you've got to put

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Speaker 3: it back in at the same time.

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Speaker 1: But they don't, they don't want to do any of that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right.

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Speaker 3: So we're looking at some you know, an eight level

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Speaker 3: liquidity crunch and also this final you know word here there.

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Speaker 1: This our economy is leveraged to the hilt. We learned

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Speaker 1: nothing from two thousand and eight.

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Speaker 3: When you start to drop fifteen to twenty we're talking

430
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Speaker 3: margin calls at the top of Wall Street, We're talking

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Speaker 3: you know, these major fortune five hundred. They are levered

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Speaker 3: up to the hilt, maybe not one hundred times like

433
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Speaker 3: they were during two thousand and eight. But we've really

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Speaker 3: learned very little about debt crises and all this because

435
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Speaker 3: there's been you know, a deck fifteen years of cheat

436
00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:40,359
Speaker 3: money that is all going to end. And when you

437
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Speaker 3: pull all that back out of the economy, I can't

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Speaker 3: even begin to describe, like what the layoffs and the

439
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Speaker 3: unemployment situation and all that's going to look.

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Speaker 2: Like, isn't it Warren Buffett who says when the stock

441
00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 2: market goes down, you find out who's women without Yeah.

442
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:54,160
Speaker 1: That's right, it's true. Yeah, it's scirically true.

443
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:54,840
Speaker 4: Everybody is.

444
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 2: I was reading an article about how everybody's making calls

445
00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,080
Speaker 2: around to try to figure out what the equivalent and

446
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 2: of like the Lehman brothers this time is some entity

447
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 2: that's really at the center that's overleveraged at this or that,

448
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 2: or you know, it could also be some gigantic manufacturing

449
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:12,240
Speaker 2: concern that had, you know, move forward with all these

450
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 2: investments potentially related to the the Inflation Reduction Act and

451
00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 2: the Chips Act, which by the way, like they weren't enough,

452
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:25,280
Speaker 2: those things were working to increase significantly. You can look

453
00:20:25,320 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 2: at the Joe, We're going to show the chart when

454
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 2: we talked to rowan Orn manufacturing infrastructure investment in this country.

455
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 2: And not only are they not doing the analogous thing

456
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,960
Speaker 2: for whatever industries that they want to build up, but

457
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 2: Chips Act is being de facto rolled back because Doge

458
00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:45,399
Speaker 2: went in and like cut half the staff that was

459
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 2: implementing this.

460
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 4: And again it has been.

461
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:50,919
Speaker 2: Very, very successful the IRA because it focuses on things

462
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 2: like you know, EV batteries and green energy. Like Trump

463
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 2: doesn't like that, so that's being hacked hacked at as well.

464
00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 2: So like the things that were actually working to increase

465
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 2: manufacturing investment in this country are being killed. There are

466
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 2: no corresponding to tax crist and by the way, with

467
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 2: this level of across the board tariff even that, like

468
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,480
Speaker 2: what you're going to subsidize everything in the entire You're

469
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,359
Speaker 2: going to subsidize banana production and coffee being production and

470
00:21:16,520 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 2: diamond mind product, like it still would be insanity given

471
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,359
Speaker 2: the way that they're moving forward. But there's none of

472
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:25,280
Speaker 2: that either. In fact, there's an austerity push on the

473
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,439
Speaker 2: other side. And then you know, even if you think

474
00:21:28,480 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 2: about the advanced manufacturing that we have here, are so

475
00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 2: many of they're either raw materials or the parts that

476
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:39,280
Speaker 2: they're sourcing come from overseas, so they're being hit with

477
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,439
Speaker 2: those arrafs when they're trying to import things to you know,

478
00:21:41,480 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 2: assemble a complicated final product.

479
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 4: And so no, I mean.

480
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 2: There, I think this is much more likely to it

481
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 2: to negatively impact, to damage significantly the manufacturing, investment production

482
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 2: that we do have, than it is to spur any

483
00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 2: sort of a renaissance.

484
00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:02,199
Speaker 4: Last thing.

485
00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 2: And I'll say, I mean, I'm sure I'll have many

486
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,640
Speaker 2: other comments that I can make today and I will

487
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 2: make in the future, et cetera. But you really do

488
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 2: have to look at this as class warfare. And I

489
00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:14,919
Speaker 2: know that this is being framed it's like, oh, this

490
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 2: is going to be great for the working class, nonsense.

491
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 2: Trump has said he wants to get rid of the

492
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 2: income tax, and certainly, even if he doesn't achieve that

493
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 2: maximalist goal, he's going to extend the Tax Cut and

494
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 2: Jobs Act, which is a gigantic tax cut for the

495
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 2: richest people in the country, and he wants to move

496
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:37,439
Speaker 2: towards funding the government through tarifs. Terrafts are a regressive tax.

497
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,479
Speaker 2: They hit the working class way harder than they hit

498
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,440
Speaker 2: rich people because the working class, of course, spends much more,

499
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 2: as a larger percent of their income on goods. So

500
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 2: when prices are going up for groceries and toilet paper

501
00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 2: and clothes and medicine and everything else in that you

502
00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 2: could think of in the fresh fruits and vegetables, like

503
00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:01,440
Speaker 2: so much of what is consumed to your comes from overseas,

504
00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 2: that is incredibly, incredibly regressive and it is going to

505
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 2: hurt working class people. It's going to devastate them now obviously,

506
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 2: like the rich people are getting hurt right now in

507
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 2: the market as well. But the impetus here and why

508
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,119
Speaker 2: he always talks about McKinley, because what was the state

509
00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 2: of taxation under McKinley. It was all effectively teriffs. There

510
00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 2: was no income tax in place, and that is the

511
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 2: direction that he wants to move things in. So you know,

512
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 2: it's I always want. I think it's really important to

513
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,480
Speaker 2: talk about the specifics of what the formula is and

514
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 2: how it's being implemented and how it doesn't make sense.

515
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 2: But I also think we have to keep in mind

516
00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 2: the bigger picture of what he is actually trying to accomplish,

517
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 2: and I think among those things are again consolidating power

518
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 2: and power grab and I also think it is shifting

519
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 2: the burden of taxation on to working class people, shifting

520
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 2: the burden of funding the government on to working class people.

521
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,359
Speaker 2: And you know, if he sticks with this plan is

522
00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 2: going to be devastating for so many.

523
00:24:03,080 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 4: And the market, the market matters.

524
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 2: I don't want to say that it's like, oh, who

525
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,399
Speaker 2: cares that if the market is crashing, real there is

526
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 2: real pain there as sober as indicating. But the market

527
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 2: is also just the first indicator of how catastrophic this

528
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 2: is going to be. Look At how regular people fared

529
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,120
Speaker 2: in coming out of the housing crisis. Look at how

530
00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:25,439
Speaker 2: regular people would have fared in the COVID crash had

531
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 2: there not been a massive government infusion to support people

532
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,639
Speaker 2: you know, look at how regular people fail fair in

533
00:24:32,840 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 2: any recession, any massive market crash, and there is no

534
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 2: indication that there is some major government program coming to

535
00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:45,439
Speaker 2: help support people through these times. In Trump's words, we

536
00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 2: just got to take the medicine. I think that's a

537
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 2: good place to transition to Jeff and talk with him

538
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 2: about his reporting.

539
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 4: He's been so.

540
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 2: Good on this issue, even going back to the camp

541
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 2: and you know, he was one who was saying, like, listen, guys,

542
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:05,120
Speaker 2: he talks about tariffs a lot, and you're right that

543
00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 2: you never laid out this particular scheme, but he did

544
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 2: lay out pretty maximalu's tariff ideas. I don't think Wall

545
00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:12,680
Speaker 2: Street ever took them seriously. They thought they were getting

546
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 2: their tax cuts and that this was just like a

547
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:17,359
Speaker 2: negotiating tactic. And you know that would be something like

548
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 2: the level of tariff imposition from his first term maybe

549
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,359
Speaker 2: amped up a little bit, but I don't think they

550
00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 2: ever took that particularly seriously. And Jeff has also done

551
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,080
Speaker 2: a fantastic job digging into the behind the scenes and

552
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 2: surprising no one. It really was Trump who said this

553
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:34,439
Speaker 2: is the way that I want to do it. Some

554
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 2: of his advisors had been working on some more sophisticated

555
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 2: level of tariff plan, and he said no, no, no,

556
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 2: And the decision making went up to the hours before

557
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,200
Speaker 2: he made the announcement there at the White House. So

558
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:49,959
Speaker 2: with that being said, let's go ahead and get to economics.

559
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:51,959
Speaker 2: Chief Economics report is at his name now, I want

560
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:53,800
Speaker 2: to give him his fancy name. He's got a fancy

561
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 2: title at the Washington Post now chief economics reporter. Jeff's

562
00:25:58,040 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 2: time from the Washington Post.

563
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,880
Speaker 3: Joining us now the chief economics reporter for the Washington Post.

564
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 3: Jeff Stein, great friend of the show. Good to see you, Jeff.

565
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 3: You've been number one to be reading this week as

566
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 3: we enter and post liberation.

567
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:09,720
Speaker 4: That's in every week.

568
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 8: Yeah, that's right, all the reporting skills I learned. We're

569
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 8: here on breaking points.

570
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,399
Speaker 3: Ah, that is absolutely not true. All right, let's go

571
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 3: and let's go ahead. Jeff's reaction. He's gonna break down

572
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,199
Speaker 3: not only Donald Trump's role behind all of this. He

573
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 3: will reveal the truth behind the fake formula. None of us,

574
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:28,679
Speaker 3: many of us, have paid notice to the fact that

575
00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:30,959
Speaker 3: many of the tariffs were being put into place on

576
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 3: some unpopulated islands. The USCA secretary was actually asked about

577
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 3: this or sorry, The Secretary of Agriculture was asked about

578
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 3: this over the weekend.

579
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen. We'll get reaction.

580
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 4: Why are you putting import tariffs on islands that are

581
00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:47,640
Speaker 4: entirely populated by penguins?

582
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 9: Well, I mean that, Come on, Jake, Obviously, here's the

583
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 9: bottom line. We live under a tariff regime from other countries.

584
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 1: We have too long is the.

585
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 9: Idea that America goes first? I mean, come on, whatever, listen,

586
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:13,520
Speaker 9: the people that are leading this are serious, intentional, patriotic,

587
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,560
Speaker 9: the smartest people I've ever worked with. I did not

588
00:27:16,600 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 9: come up with the formulas.

589
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,600
Speaker 3: So Jeff, who came up with this formula? Where where

590
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:22,640
Speaker 3: do this thing come from? You've got the story. We'll

591
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 3: put it up there, but you can talk well while

592
00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 3: we show off your work.

593
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 8: The weird thing about that answer, with all these respect

594
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 8: to the Agriculture secretary, is like, if I was a

595
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,760
Speaker 8: Trump Cabinet official, I feel like I could have given

596
00:27:35,800 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 8: a somewhat cojent response. Like the reason that these tiny

597
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:43,680
Speaker 8: little islands were hit by the tariffs is in.

598
00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,960
Speaker 6: Part because there's some.

599
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:50,239
Speaker 8: Concerns that they could be vehicles for transhipment, right, like,

600
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 8: if you're a foreign country and you're trying to just

601
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,440
Speaker 8: send something to a country that you know, the tiny

602
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 8: middle island, then you reincorporate, say that that that good

603
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 8: is now from that island and then send it onward.

604
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 8: That's what I would have said if I was the

605
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 8: Agriculture secretary, even though the idea that a substantial proportion

606
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:11,040
Speaker 8: of trade could be rerouted through an island with like

607
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 8: fall penguins and no people on it is probably overblown,

608
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 8: Like that's what you could have said in response, even

609
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 8: I mean, according to the trade expers I've spoken to,

610
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:23,439
Speaker 8: even more kind of shocking about this formula that they

611
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 8: use to determine country specific terrors, which are different than

612
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 8: the universal one that they applied on all countries, which

613
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:32,199
Speaker 8: we can talk about sort of the criticisms of and

614
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:37,160
Speaker 8: the very strong criticisms of the country specific tariffs hit

615
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 8: countries based on essentially their trading deficit with the US.

616
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 8: And so you have countries like Lesotto, which is a

617
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 8: big minner of diamond exporter to the US, which is

618
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 8: an incredibly poor country. Of course we buy more from

619
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 8: Lesoto than they do from US. That has nothing to

620
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 8: do with the thing that the White House and Trump

621
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 8: are talking about as being the impetus of this global

622
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 8: trade war, right because they're saying, look, which there is

623
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 8: some truth to this part that the US has, you know,

624
00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 8: is a global purchaser of stuff across the world, that

625
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 8: we have a global trade imbalance, which is all true,

626
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 8: that it is you know, particularly bad with some countries

627
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 8: like China, and that they want to do something about it.

628
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 8: But Lesoto is not a net center of exports to

629
00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 8: the US because they have nefarious currency arrangement or high

630
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 8: terror farriers our exports because it's an incredibly poor country,

631
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 8: Like it would make no sense for Lesoto to be

632
00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 8: buying more stuff from US than we do from from them.

633
00:29:46,120 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 6: So that's like the I think the.

634
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 8: Overarching frame and the question to your question, Stager, like

635
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 8: why do they do this? We had reporting last week

636
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 8: about how the Trump administration's sort of top economic minds

637
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 8: had weeks been working on a formula that was narrowly

638
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 8: about sort of the thing the problem that they're ostensibly

639
00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,960
Speaker 8: trying to solve, which you can debate whether it's worth solving,

640
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 8: but this issue of US buying more than we sell

641
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 8: to the rest of the world, and they had a

642
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,880
Speaker 8: plan that took into account. They had several plans that

643
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 8: took into account all kinds of currency manipulation factors and tariffs,

644
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 8: and they were coming up with sophisticated measures to deal

645
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 8: with that. I cannot prove who wrote the more crude

646
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 8: formula that was widely mocked that Trump, as we reported,

647
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 8: personally selected, but I do know that it bears striking

648
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 8: resemblance to a number of public state public formulas previously

649
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 8: endorsed by Peter Navarro, who is sort of the most

650
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 8: ultra maximalist trade hawk in Trump's orbit. And so I'll

651
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 8: just leave that observation there.

652
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, to get from you the reaction from Bill Ackman,

653
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 2: who is now very unhappy with these tarifs, and of

654
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 2: course he's been a big Trump supporter. He's also accusing

655
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 2: Howard Lutnick of profiting off of the crash of the

656
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 2: stock market. If we could put before up on the screen, guys,

657
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 2: this is what part of what acca He's famous for

658
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 2: these freaking way too long posts on Twitter. But in

659
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 2: any case, this is a portion of what he had

660
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 2: to say. He said, business is a confidence game. The

661
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 2: president is losing the confidence of business leaders around the globe.

662
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 2: The consequences for our country and millions of our citizens

663
00:31:31,560 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 2: who have supported the president, in particular low income consumers

664
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 2: who are already under a huge amount of economic stress,

665
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 2: are going to be severely negative.

666
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 4: This is not what we voted for.

667
00:31:39,960 --> 00:31:42,600
Speaker 2: The president has an opportunity on Monday to call a

668
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 2: time out, have the time to execute on fixing an

669
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 2: unfair tariff system. Alternatively, we are heading for a self

670
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 2: induced economic nuclear winter, and we should start hunkering down.

671
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 2: May cooler heads prevail before I get into the the attack.

672
00:31:59,040 --> 00:32:01,719
Speaker 2: Then on Howard at Nick Commerce Secretary, just would love

673
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 2: to get your reaction to Ackman, you know, and his

674
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 2: position here and saying, hey, you got to call a

675
00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 2: time out here or else we're headed for this economic

676
00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 2: nuclear winter, because you've been pointing out for a long time. Listen, guys,

677
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 2: he's serious about these tarts.

678
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:15,760
Speaker 5: Now.

679
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 2: Did he float this particular formula on the campaign trail? No,

680
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 2: but he was floating some pretty maximus positions. And it

681
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 2: certainly seems like people like Bill Ackman and a lot

682
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:27,840
Speaker 2: of the other Wall Street types who were excited about

683
00:32:27,880 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 2: a Trump administration they thought they were getting.

684
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 4: Their tax cut.

685
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,720
Speaker 2: They did not think that they were getting self induced

686
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 2: global economic meltdown.

687
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, just from a writerly perspective, I think

688
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 8: the technical term here is burying the lead.

689
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 6: If you're saying we might be headed.

690
00:32:44,160 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 8: For economic nuclear winner, normally you don't put it at

691
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:50,479
Speaker 8: the bottom of six hundred words of text and after,

692
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 8: you know, seven paragraphs of expository throat clearing.

693
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:57,200
Speaker 4: It was very New York Times of him.

694
00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, no comment a post report.

695
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 8: I'm I think you know exactly as you're saying, It's

696
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 8: been really remarkable to see.

697
00:33:08,880 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 6: Like, I don't think anything Trump.

698
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 8: Has done is really that surprising based on his campaign rhetoric,

699
00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 8: based on the reporting. I mean, I wrote a story

700
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 8: in August twenty twenty three.

701
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 6: You can go look it up. I promise it's real.

702
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 8: It says in detail that that President Trump is seriously

703
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 8: considering or plans to, if re elected, launch a global

704
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 8: trade war that includes tariff barriers as high as sixty

705
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:39,760
Speaker 8: percent on China, which is pretty.

706
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 6: Close to what they ended up with.

707
00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 8: That is, would include a universal tariff of up to

708
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 8: ten or twenty percent, which is almost double what he

709
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 8: in fact actually proposed in terms of universal tariffs. That

710
00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 8: includes these sectoral tariffs on entire industries now we haven't

711
00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:59,000
Speaker 8: even seeing yet, right, So like for all the all

712
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 8: the sort of financial carnage we've seen in markets, like

713
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:05,920
Speaker 8: some of the biggest measures that they're considering are not

714
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,520
Speaker 8: even yet announced. So that's that's tear ups on all

715
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 8: kinds of the same good that come in wherever they're from.

716
00:34:13,320 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 8: And autos we've seen, but farm the Lumbard copper, et cetera.

717
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 8: You know, as I've been pointing on Twitter, it's just

718
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 8: it's hard for me to understand how some of the

719
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 8: richest people in the world couldn't afford one hundred and

720
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 8: fifty dollars subscription to The Washington Post. And it makes

721
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:33,120
Speaker 8: me wonder, like why I didn't just start in investment

722
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 8: service for these guys in charge like ten times my

723
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 8: current salary, Because there were people who, you know, I

724
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:42,320
Speaker 8: have sources who are lobbyists who are paid four or

725
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 8: five six times when I'm to give Wall Street advice

726
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 8: on how to invest in, how to navigate Washington, and

727
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 8: a lot of times our reporting was much closer to

728
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:57,080
Speaker 8: what actually happened, So I could ramble on about this

729
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:57,919
Speaker 8: for days.

730
00:34:57,960 --> 00:34:59,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've been I think it's a good point to

731
00:34:59,520 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 3: be fair. So also, and despite you writing it, there

732
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 3: were also a lot of people who worked for him

733
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,359
Speaker 3: telling a lot of those people just don't worry about

734
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,080
Speaker 3: it's not going to happen. So you know, it's not

735
00:35:09,160 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 3: like he wasn't also feeding them a lot of what

736
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,920
Speaker 3: they wanted to hear during the campaign.

737
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:15,279
Speaker 1: I guess that might be.

738
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 8: True, but like I definitely take it as a possibility

739
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 8: that I'm just like not talking the right people.

740
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 6: But I don't know. I'm not like the best source

741
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:24,640
Speaker 6: reporter in America.

742
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 8: But you know, there are people who are like in

743
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 8: the Trump circle who talked to me, and they have

744
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:34,480
Speaker 8: they have been like very clear, like for a year

745
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:36,000
Speaker 8: and a half or two years to me now that

746
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:39,320
Speaker 8: like you talked to Trump one on one about this stuff,

747
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:45,200
Speaker 8: like there is no or very little sort of like yeah,

748
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:47,200
Speaker 8: this is a bluff. Yeah, like this is a design

749
00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 8: to get people to move. It's like I talked to

750
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 8: a senator a couple of months ago and he said

751
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:54,600
Speaker 8: that he was like begging Trump to like not do

752
00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 8: the tariffs, and Trump was like.

753
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 6: Basically just said, we need to get back.

754
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 8: To where McKinley was over and over to this senator

755
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 8: and the Center's like, what are you talking about? So,

756
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 8: I mean, I think there is an element that are

757
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:12,239
Speaker 8: there are people goes to Trump who are saying to

758
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 8: Wall Street, this isn't serious. But I also think people

759
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 8: were just kind of seeing what I'm hearing things that

760
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 8: weren't really even being said.

761
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:19,839
Speaker 6: If that makes sense.

762
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, they were hearing what they want to do. Let's

763
00:36:23,200 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 2: go ahead and get the attack on Letning. Now he

764
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 2: has since walked this back and apologized for it. But

765
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 2: I think this is before b that we can put

766
00:36:31,640 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 2: up on the screen here. So Ackman says, I just

767
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 2: figured out why Howard lutnink Co, of course, is the

768
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:40,240
Speaker 2: Commerce Secretary and adamant Trump tariff defender on cable news,

769
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 2: is indifferent to the stock market and the economy crashing.

770
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 2: He and Canter that's his firm, are long on bonds.

771
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 2: He profits when our economy implodes. It's a bad idea

772
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:51,880
Speaker 2: to pick a Secretary of Commerce whose firm is levered

773
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 2: long fixed income. It's an irreconcilable conflict of interests. Of course,

774
00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 2: this administration is rife with conflicts of interest. If you

775
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 2: aren't cashing it in, you're in this administration. I don't

776
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 2: know what you're doing. But you know, what did you

777
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:06,920
Speaker 2: make of this from Ackman? As I said, he did

778
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 2: walk this back and apologize. I think Letnik he must

779
00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 2: be doing his best in a very difficult position.

780
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 4: Whatever.

781
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,320
Speaker 2: But you know, do you think there's is this fair

782
00:37:15,719 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 2: critique of Lutnik at all? And also bigger picture, what

783
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 2: do you make of these two you know, previously very

784
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 2: solid Trump supporters. Lutink I don't think has weighed in,

785
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 2: but Ackman attacking him directly.

786
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 8: Yeah, I don't know much about the internal, you know,

787
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 8: positions of Canter Fitzgerald.

788
00:37:37,280 --> 00:37:38,960
Speaker 6: I do think it doesn't make a ton.

789
00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 8: Of sense that that that this strategy on crashing the

790
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 8: market would lead to an uptick.

791
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 6: In bond sales.

792
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 8: I mean that mostly affect the issuance, which is a

793
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 8: US government function.

794
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,840
Speaker 6: So it's it's hard for me to see like that really.

795
00:37:58,000 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 8: I mean, I guess you could see the price of

796
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 8: existing thing outstanding bonds go up, but I don't know

797
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 8: at a very minimum, Like I just would like to

798
00:38:05,600 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 8: see a lot more any evidence at all of this.

799
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,839
Speaker 6: Before even suggesting there's anything there.

800
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,400
Speaker 8: I think on the political dynamic, I think it is

801
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:18,520
Speaker 8: really interesting that we're seeing an increasing number of people

802
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:22,919
Speaker 8: in the Trump orbit attack not the president but sort

803
00:38:22,960 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 8: of people around him, like Elon Musk over the weekend

804
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 8: went after Peter Navarro, who, as I mentioned, this sort

805
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,879
Speaker 8: of court to this whole strategy.

806
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:35,440
Speaker 6: Bill Lackman.

807
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:38,880
Speaker 8: They're going after not the president himself but the Commerce secretary.

808
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 8: And there seems to be another element of like, this

809
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 8: can't have been the president's fault.

810
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,200
Speaker 6: Personally, so we need to find a stand in.

811
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 3: You know.

812
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 8: It's like the King, it could never be wrong. It's

813
00:38:49,200 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 8: his advisor. So I think there is an elements of

814
00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 8: that going on, where people are trying to find maybe

815
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,280
Speaker 8: a fall guy that Trump can then be like, oh,

816
00:38:57,320 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 8: this whole lapse was like this guy's fault.

817
00:39:00,800 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 6: It's all Trump guys.

818
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 8: This is like all being done by the President, like

819
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:05,879
Speaker 8: you see those clips of him in nineteen eighty being

820
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 8: like Japan is ripping us off, it's him, you know.

821
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:12,240
Speaker 8: But if that's what they need to do to feel

822
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:15,239
Speaker 8: like they can sort of make clear to Trump that.

823
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 6: This has to change without hitting him directly, I think

824
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 6: we're going.

825
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 2: To see more of that gives him a way to

826
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,879
Speaker 2: save face potentially of like oh what this guy gave

827
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,799
Speaker 2: me some terrible advice. Allry, Howard Lutnik, You're own right.

828
00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:27,920
Speaker 3: Last question for you then, Jeff, where do you think

829
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 3: things are going to go for the next week? So

830
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:33,160
Speaker 3: the administration's cope is fifty different countries have called us

831
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 3: and we're negotiating.

832
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:34,719
Speaker 1: What does that mean?

833
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 8: I mean we reported last week that the Trump White

834
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 8: House sent out internal talking points to their people saying,

835
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:49,640
Speaker 8: do not characterize this as a negotiation. And Lutnik has

836
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 8: a desine. They've all been saying, like, this is not

837
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,839
Speaker 8: going to be resolved in days or weeks. Is there

838
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,320
Speaker 8: a chance that in the back of his head Donald

839
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 8: Trump is still thinking, like, tell everyone in my inner

840
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 8: circle that this is not a negotiation so that we

841
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:08,040
Speaker 8: have higher leverage with the rest of the world as

842
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 8: the economy implodes. Like it's possible, But I don't really

843
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 8: think so. And so far I've continually taken the like

844
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,919
Speaker 8: the under on the like Trump is bluffing by a lot,

845
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,360
Speaker 8: and I think people would be wise to continue to

846
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 8: do so.

847
00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:23,240
Speaker 1: Yeah.

848
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:25,400
Speaker 2: I do have one more for you, Jeff, just on

849
00:40:25,440 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 2: the political temperature from Republicans. There is starting to be

850
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 2: an effort for Congress to reclaim what should be its

851
00:40:31,880 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 2: powers over leving tariffs.

852
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 4: Many Republicans have.

853
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 2: First of all, I mean they're terrified to go against

854
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:42,919
Speaker 2: Trump to start with, he has really consolidated control over

855
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:46,280
Speaker 2: that party. And second of all, they were comforting themselves

856
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 2: with the idea of like, oh, some of them are

857
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 2: even saying like, oh, he's going to use this as

858
00:40:50,200 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 2: a negotiating tool to take teriffs down to zero, so

859
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:54,840
Speaker 2: this is actually free trade, Like this is you know,

860
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:58,359
Speaker 2: I'm totally in line with my Chamber of Commerce orientation here.

861
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 2: Increasingly that position is untenable. So do you think that

862
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:08,239
Speaker 2: there could be some significant breakage within the own part

863
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:11,720
Speaker 2: his own party, you know, among senate Senate Republicans in particular,

864
00:41:11,760 --> 00:41:13,719
Speaker 2: from Trump and this tariff insanity.

865
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:18,319
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think it's it's common, especially like if we

866
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 8: get to Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and we're in a bear

867
00:41:21,120 --> 00:41:22,319
Speaker 8: market and the recession is.

868
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 6: Hitting, their need to be loyal to Trump will start

869
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 6: to crack.

870
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:29,680
Speaker 8: And I think you're seeing some signs that already, with

871
00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:35,439
Speaker 8: this still somewhat tepid Commressional Review of Terror Policy bill

872
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 8: moving forward forward to you're seeing more Republicans than would

873
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 8: have been conceivable a few weeks ago sign up for that,

874
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 8: but that's not really going to be enough to brain

875
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 8: Trump in at all, just based on the text of legislation.

876
00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 8: Will more aggressive legislation be proposed if this gets worse,

877
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 8: I definitely think so. I mean, it's incredible to think about.

878
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 8: You know, Commssional Republicans were furious about President Biden's unilateral

879
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 8: four hundred billion dollars so student loan bailout, and Trump,

880
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 8: by the White House's own accounting, is moving forward with

881
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 8: a unilateral six trillion dollar tax fike, you know, more

882
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 8: than ten times the size of the student loan bailout.

883
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 8: The legal questions there are certainly different, but you know,

884
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 8: I think a lot of Republicans in their bones are

885
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 8: not okay with this, and you're going to hear from

886
00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 8: them pretty soon.

887
00:42:23,160 --> 00:42:23,600
Speaker 6: I agree.

888
00:42:23,760 --> 00:42:25,640
Speaker 1: All right, then, thank you for joining us. We appreciate it.

889
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:28,160
Speaker 4: Thanks Jeff, I know you're super busy. We really appreciate it.

890
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:29,439
Speaker 4: Thanks you too.

891
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,359
Speaker 2: So you're just talking to Jeff stin there about how

892
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 2: Republicans may react to all of this, and they will

893
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 2: likely be watching very closely the public reaction to what

894
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 2: is going on in the markets and with Trump's tariff policy.

895
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 2: Harry Enton took a look last week at the polling

896
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 2: that we do have at this point about how Americans

897
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 2: feel about this direction.

898
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:51,319
Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and take a listen to that.

899
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:56,040
Speaker 7: The Press secretary criticize the people she calls the naysayers

900
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 7: when it comes to these tariffs.

901
00:42:57,680 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 1: Who are the naysayers?

902
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:01,760
Speaker 10: The nay sayers are the majority of the American public.

903
00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 10: It's the American people who are the naysayers. Oppose new

904
00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 10: tariffs on other countries all goods. Look at this, fifty

905
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:12,760
Speaker 10: six percent of Americans opposed new tariffs on all goods.

906
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:16,879
Speaker 10: How about cars in particular, fifty six percent of Americans

907
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:21,359
Speaker 10: oppose new tariffs on imported cars in park car parts. Look,

908
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 10: the bottom line is the American people oppose, oppose, opposed, No, no, no,

909
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 10: they do not want new tariffs. I looked at a

910
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:32,080
Speaker 10: ton of polling. You It's really hard to find any

911
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:35,560
Speaker 10: in which you find folks supporting new tariffs. Maybe against China,

912
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:38,520
Speaker 10: but against all other countries, especially our allies. No no,

913
00:43:38,520 --> 00:43:40,480
Speaker 10: noose a pose a posts.

914
00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 7: So Caroline love It again told Kate in that discussion

915
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:47,680
Speaker 7: that the president is is laser focused on reducing prices.

916
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:51,879
Speaker 7: What do voters say that they believe the tariffs will

917
00:43:51,880 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 7: do to prices.

918
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 10: What do voters believe the tariffs will do to prices?

919
00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 10: At least in the short term? Tariffs will raise prices? Again,

920
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,520
Speaker 10: what did we get here? Ey two percent of Americans

921
00:44:01,560 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 10: overall say that the prices will go up in the

922
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 10: short term. How about among Republicans through Republican base. This

923
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 10: was a shocker to me. Sixty four percent of Republicans

924
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:14,640
Speaker 10: believe that tariffs will in fact cause prices to go

925
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 10: up in the near term. And get this, just five percent,

926
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:21,399
Speaker 10: five percent of Americans overall believe that tarifs, at least

927
00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 10: in the short term, will bring down prices. You don't

928
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 10: have to be a mathematical genius to know, mister Berman,

929
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 10: that seventy two beats five.

930
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:31,480
Speaker 2: So a lot of a lot of warnings there for

931
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 2: this direction from the president and for his party. Put

932
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 2: this up on the screen from you gov. This was

933
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:43,000
Speaker 2: a poll taken on April third, and they say that

934
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 2: among US adults, only thirteen percent on March ninth through eleventh,

935
00:44:48,480 --> 00:44:51,360
Speaker 2: and then nineteen percent on April third say that raising

936
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:55,720
Speaker 2: tariffs will help the average American. And there's a big

937
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:59,879
Speaker 2: partisan divide here where you know, there's a significant number

938
00:44:59,880 --> 00:45:02,479
Speaker 2: of Republicans who say it will help, but even there

939
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:04,919
Speaker 2: it's not a majory. It is a plurality at thirty

940
00:45:05,000 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 2: nine percent. Among Democrats, it's only six percent think they

941
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:12,440
Speaker 2: will help independence, it's only fourteen percent. So there is

942
00:45:12,640 --> 00:45:15,799
Speaker 2: next two zero confidence among the American public that this

943
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,440
Speaker 2: is actually going to be, you know, taking the medicine

944
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 2: and on the other side, some grand utopio weight crber.

945
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:21,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.

946
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:24,200
Speaker 3: If you look at it overall, and we still have

947
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:26,840
Speaker 3: not yet seen the impact. That's actually the probably the

948
00:45:26,880 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 3: most important point to underscore. This is where you start at.

949
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:33,760
Speaker 3: This is the market is the leading indicator. The price

950
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:36,840
Speaker 3: at Walmart hasn't gone up yet, right, you haven't actually

951
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 3: been seen the layoffs. We just know that that it's

952
00:45:39,200 --> 00:45:42,640
Speaker 3: likely coming unless there's some major impact. But in the interim,

953
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 3: this is the baseline from which you're beginning with. So

954
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 3: that's really not where you want to be. Let's go

955
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 3: and put the next one up there on the screen, though,

956
00:45:49,719 --> 00:45:51,880
Speaker 3: and this is the word of caution for everybody who's

957
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:55,279
Speaker 3: out there who is hoping and praying for some big

958
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 3: shift in the Republican base. I'm not so sure it

959
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 3: says quote Republican skepticism of free trade service. When voters

960
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 3: were asked whether tariff's help or hurt the economy, seventy

961
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:07,400
Speaker 3: seven percent said tariff's help create jobs and our beneficial.

962
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:09,960
Speaker 3: Ninety three percent of Democrats that they raise prices in

963
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 3: our negative force. The survey was taken before this market

964
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,640
Speaker 3: down on Thursday and Friday, but it is still, you know,

965
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:19,840
Speaker 3: an indicator of where things were beforehand. Trump successfully completely

966
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:23,760
Speaker 3: flipped that in terms of the Republican and the Democratic basis,

967
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,359
Speaker 3: how they thought broadly about tariffs, probably the.

968
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 1: Best idea of negative polarization.

969
00:46:28,719 --> 00:46:32,640
Speaker 3: But it does just show us that even with everything

970
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:35,200
Speaker 3: that there is right now, you and I all need

971
00:46:35,239 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 3: to remember the level of trust that a lot of

972
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 3: these Republican voters have in Donald Trump. They don't trust

973
00:46:40,360 --> 00:46:42,799
Speaker 3: the media. They don't trust you know, the New York Times,

974
00:46:42,880 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 3: the Wall Street Journal or CNBC.

975
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: If anything.

976
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:48,040
Speaker 3: They liked seeing Jim Kramer and these other people panicking.

977
00:46:48,120 --> 00:46:50,880
Speaker 3: Right there's a lot of negative polarization. In fact, the

978
00:46:50,880 --> 00:46:55,399
Speaker 3: best argument I've heard that's pro tariff is everybody who

979
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:57,840
Speaker 3: was wrong about this, this, this, and this are the

980
00:46:57,840 --> 00:46:59,400
Speaker 3: people who are upset about tariffs.

981
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 1: I sympathize with that.

982
00:47:00,840 --> 00:47:03,520
Speaker 3: You know, whenever you see yourself as I do, find

983
00:47:03,560 --> 00:47:07,200
Speaker 3: somehow in agreement with people posting Milton Friedman memes.

984
00:47:07,080 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 1: Makes me cringe. I'm like, maybe I'm entirely wrong about

985
00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 1: this entire thing. I don't think so.

986
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:14,560
Speaker 3: But obviously anybody who thinks they're right, you know, broadly does.

987
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 1: But that is the broader thinking.

988
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:19,680
Speaker 3: You have an entire part of the American electorate which

989
00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 3: is negatively polarized against every institution.

990
00:47:22,320 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 1: Trying to tell them that this is wrong.

991
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 3: It's only going to harden their beliefs almost certainly at

992
00:47:27,000 --> 00:47:29,520
Speaker 3: an emotional level. And really, I don't think that there

993
00:47:29,560 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 3: will be any grand flip for them unless there is

994
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 3: some serious economic fallout. And you know, as we just said,

995
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 3: it's just not there yet. Yes, the stock market and

996
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 3: all of that is there, but that's just you know,

997
00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 3: a prelude. If you think about h nine, what was

998
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 3: the absolute bottom and the worst part of it, It's

999
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 3: not when the market drop by fifty percent. It's when

1000
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 3: people were fire sailing their houses and you know, people

1001
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:53,799
Speaker 3: were showing up to occupy Wall Street. It takes some

1002
00:47:53,840 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 3: eighteen months for this stuff to really bleed into the

1003
00:47:56,719 --> 00:48:00,200
Speaker 3: overall economy, somebody goes to the bank, you know, or

1004
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:02,319
Speaker 3: somebody goes to that bank there. People are not lending,

1005
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 3: there's a liquidity crunch this you know, rate crises and

1006
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 3: all this. So get fired from my job six months

1007
00:48:07,800 --> 00:48:11,120
Speaker 3: later because cash reserves have fallen down. That's when the

1008
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:14,279
Speaker 3: stuff really starts to roll. So we're still not there yet.

1009
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 3: I think people should buckle up.

1010
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 10: Yeah.

1011
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:18,239
Speaker 2: Republicans are very much in trust the plan mode. Yeah,

1012
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:20,840
Speaker 2: no doubt about it. Like you said, they don't believe

1013
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:22,879
Speaker 2: anybody but Trump. And so if Trump is like this

1014
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 2: is going to be great, they're like, all right, well

1015
00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 2: we'll see. Maybe it's going to be great.

1016
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 4: I don't know.

1017
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 2: And the question is, and if we could put the

1018
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 2: last element actually up on the screen here, guys, see five.

1019
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:37,840
Speaker 2: The question is, once it gets from quote unquote just

1020
00:48:38,520 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 2: a market drop and you start to see even more

1021
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:48,359
Speaker 2: companies laying off workers and prices are going up, and

1022
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:52,319
Speaker 2: you you know, likely are in a situation of stagflation

1023
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 2: and the economic disaster in ordinary people's lives. If we

1024
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 2: get to a place, god forbid where that becomes undeniable,

1025
00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 2: does that change anything, and you know, the lowest approval ratings.

1026
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:07,040
Speaker 2: This is a Nate Cone rite up. He says, Republican's

1027
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 2: tariffs suppose a risk like no other. Trump's political strength

1028
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 2: is built on the economy. If it thinks he could

1029
00:49:11,320 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 2: drag his party down with him, he has a whole

1030
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:17,880
Speaker 2: You know, look at the way that recessions have normally

1031
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 2: worked out for presidents, and this one, if we do

1032
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 2: end up in recession, will be completely self inflicted and

1033
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 2: there will be no ability like Obama in ten twenty

1034
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 2: twelve is like, Hey, I'm still trying to pull a

1035
00:49:31,080 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 2: down of this mess that these last guys left, you know, Biden.

1036
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:37,160
Speaker 2: Same thing with Trump coming out of the COVID crash,

1037
00:49:37,200 --> 00:49:39,080
Speaker 2: like I'm just trying to get things back together after

1038
00:49:39,120 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 2: these people screwed things up. Trump is not going to

1039
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:45,320
Speaker 2: have that luck to like he owns this one hundred percent.

1040
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 2: There is no ability to be like, oh but Joe Biden, No,

1041
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:50,400
Speaker 2: you are the one who did this and architect of this,

1042
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:53,080
Speaker 2: so it lands in your lap. So if there is

1043
00:49:53,120 --> 00:49:57,120
Speaker 2: a recession, it will undeniably be because of the singular

1044
00:49:57,160 --> 00:50:01,399
Speaker 2: person of Donald J. Trump, and Nate writes in this piece,

1045
00:50:01,440 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 2: he says the tariff announced Wednesday, how introduce a political

1046
00:50:04,440 --> 00:50:07,160
Speaker 2: problem of an entirely different magnitude for Trump and his party.

1047
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 2: No party or politician of recession proof. Historically, even truly

1048
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:15,359
Speaker 2: dominant political parties have suffered enormous political defeats during major

1049
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 2: economic downturns. In none of those cases, not even with

1050
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:21,600
Speaker 2: the infamous Smoot Holly tariff, could the president be held

1051
00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 2: responsible for the downturn as self evidently as today and

1052
00:50:25,239 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 2: whatever it may have felt like after the election, the

1053
00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:32,600
Speaker 2: Republican Party is not even close to politically dominant. Keep

1054
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 2: in mind, and this is part of why Trump is,

1055
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:40,240
Speaker 2: I think, in such complete giving no fox about anything mode.

1056
00:50:40,440 --> 00:50:42,800
Speaker 2: Is like he doesn't care about the Republican Party. He

1057
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:45,200
Speaker 2: doesn't really care if it's a complete bloodbath in the midterms.

1058
00:50:45,200 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 2: He's doing whatever he wants anyway. And so you also

1059
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:51,279
Speaker 2: have to keep in mind, as popular as he is

1060
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:52,719
Speaker 2: with the base, he's not going to be on the

1061
00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:57,040
Speaker 2: ballot in the midterm elections. And we have seen consistently

1062
00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:00,399
Speaker 2: that his popularity with the Republican base does not sleep

1063
00:51:00,480 --> 00:51:04,839
Speaker 2: over to the broader Republican Party. So yeah, they have

1064
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 2: to be looking at the results in Wisconsin have to

1065
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:10,560
Speaker 2: be looking at the leader of their the undisplayed leader

1066
00:51:10,600 --> 00:51:14,280
Speaker 2: of their party intentionally. It appears crashing the entire economy

1067
00:51:14,560 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 2: and go oh shit, Like if we're in if I'm

1068
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:20,920
Speaker 2: in a district that's less than Trump plus fifteen, I'm

1069
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:23,959
Speaker 2: starting to get real nervous looking what is going on here.

1070
00:51:24,080 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 3: I hate to say it, but you know who I

1071
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:27,880
Speaker 3: see making big bets that I think are going to

1072
00:51:27,920 --> 00:51:30,400
Speaker 3: pay off, Ted Cruz. And I hate to say it,

1073
00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:33,840
Speaker 3: but I see him out there. He's counter signaling on tariffs.

1074
00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 3: He's talking about tax hikes, he's trying to loop it

1075
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:41,000
Speaker 3: into some of his old school conservatism. And Ted Cruz

1076
00:51:41,080 --> 00:51:44,360
Speaker 3: is a guy is hardline on immigration but anti tariff,

1077
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 3: one of those people who could credibly say I ran

1078
00:51:47,040 --> 00:51:50,440
Speaker 3: against Donald Trump in two thousand and sixteen. And I'm

1079
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 3: not just one calling this. Other people are saying. They're like,

1080
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:55,400
Speaker 3: I think he's going to challenge Shadey Vance for the nomination,

1081
00:51:55,480 --> 00:51:57,680
Speaker 3: and if you think about what the future of that

1082
00:51:57,760 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 3: might look like. Trump has already said he doesn't want

1083
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 3: to endorse an Actually he wants to run for a

1084
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 3: third term. But let's assume that he's just going to

1085
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 3: slip this one out and let people.

1086
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:06,319
Speaker 1: Dangle in the wind.

1087
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:10,120
Speaker 3: Well, you would rather be on the record against it.

1088
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:12,960
Speaker 3: And I again, I hate to say it, because I

1089
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 3: think Ted Cruz is totally wrong. Ted Cruz is an

1090
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 3: actual on iroonic free trader, doesn't believe in tariff's at all.

1091
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 3: Who believes in you know, this Tea party libertarian vision.

1092
00:52:21,200 --> 00:52:23,560
Speaker 3: But let's be honest. I mean, the bad way that

1093
00:52:23,600 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 3: this is all being handled and rolled out, it's going

1094
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:30,719
Speaker 3: to poison the well of tariff discussion for a generation.

1095
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:30,919
Speaker 4: Really sucks.

1096
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:31,840
Speaker 1: It's horrible.

1097
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:33,640
Speaker 3: I was thinking about it, you know, in terms of

1098
00:52:33,680 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 3: two thousand and eight, for people like us who really

1099
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 3: became politically aware at that time. Anytime I hear about

1100
00:52:40,600 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 3: leverage or credit default, I'm just like, no, you know,

1101
00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 3: it's it's baked in for all of us who lived

1102
00:52:46,680 --> 00:52:49,279
Speaker 3: through all of that. Well, think about if you're you know, me,

1103
00:52:49,680 --> 00:52:52,920
Speaker 3: twelve years younger, what are you living through right man?

1104
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 3: If you're a college senior right now, Holy shit, can

1105
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:59,399
Speaker 3: you imagine having to graduate into this economy? I mean

1106
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:01,760
Speaker 3: it'd be one of the those where if you especially

1107
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 3: you know, with the overall lee times for where we are,

1108
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:08,279
Speaker 3: what we're only a month or so away from college graduation.

1109
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:09,759
Speaker 1: I think, what are they going to do? Yeah, I

1110
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 1: mean what are you going to do?

1111
00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:13,920
Speaker 3: And there are a lot of signs, just like, oh

1112
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:17,840
Speaker 3: nine law school applications are double what they were just

1113
00:53:17,920 --> 00:53:21,120
Speaker 3: from last year. That's a terrible sign. It means people

1114
00:53:21,120 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 3: are willing to leverage up to two hundred k in

1115
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:25,920
Speaker 3: the hopes that things are better three years from now.

1116
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 3: By the way, news flash, it's not going to be.

1117
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,279
Speaker 3: But as those people found out at that time, I

1118
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 3: know a lot of those folks that didn't end up

1119
00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:33,920
Speaker 3: working out so well for them. But all of the

1120
00:53:33,960 --> 00:53:37,120
Speaker 3: signs are there. So you're graduating in a month. Okay, No,

1121
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:40,400
Speaker 3: we're looking at occupy again. That's what happened last time

1122
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 3: eighteen months or so. And so the polling and the

1123
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 3: way that the base and all of that will be

1124
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 3: negatively impacted could genuinely poison the well on tariffs, not

1125
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:51,920
Speaker 3: just for them, but for the entire country writ large.

1126
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:55,279
Speaker 3: And it's again I hate this because politically we are

1127
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:56,680
Speaker 3: such a yo yo nation.

1128
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:57,480
Speaker 1: We're just going to.

1129
00:53:57,520 --> 00:54:01,240
Speaker 3: Flip back to some sort of Obama as you know argument,

1130
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 3: which is gonna make a lot of sense to a

1131
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:04,840
Speaker 3: lot of people and who were willing to listen.

1132
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 2: I mean, and it's unfortunate because there actually was a

1133
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 2: new bipartisan consensus around some level of intelligent trade protectionism.

1134
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:17,960
Speaker 4: You know, Trump and Trump could have claimed credit for that. Absolutely.

1135
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 2: He started that interaction with the taries he put on China,

1136
00:54:21,040 --> 00:54:25,080
Speaker 2: which I supported, you supported. They didn't actually accomplish that

1137
00:54:25,239 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 2: much because they weren't paired with industrial policy, but they

1138
00:54:28,080 --> 00:54:30,239
Speaker 2: did open the door. And then Biden is able with

1139
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:32,520
Speaker 2: Inflation Reduction Act in the Chips Act, which again no

1140
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:34,840
Speaker 2: one is saying that this is like remade the economy

1141
00:54:34,880 --> 00:54:36,839
Speaker 2: and it was the end all be all, but these

1142
00:54:36,840 --> 00:54:40,759
Speaker 2: were significant investments that were paying off. They genuinely were

1143
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:45,239
Speaker 2: working for critical investments for industries that are going to

1144
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:47,759
Speaker 2: be important in the future and important for national security.

1145
00:54:48,040 --> 00:54:51,000
Speaker 2: And Trump is blowing that up. And now you know

1146
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:55,840
Speaker 2: that consensus about Arris. There's this western Pennsylvania Democratic representatives

1147
00:54:55,920 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 2: like represents an area around Pittsburgh, Representative Luzio, and we're

1148
00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:02,000
Speaker 2: trying to get him on the show. Actually I think

1149
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:03,759
Speaker 2: we haven't booked for this week. I want to speak

1150
00:55:03,760 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 2: with him, but you know, he comes from this like

1151
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:08,239
Speaker 2: blue collar part of Pennsylvania and very like union heavy,

1152
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:10,759
Speaker 2: et cetera. And he put out this video that was like, listen, guys,

1153
00:55:11,000 --> 00:55:14,920
Speaker 2: tariffs in certain certain circumstances, yes, but what Trump is

1154
00:55:14,960 --> 00:55:15,720
Speaker 2: doing is crazy.

1155
00:55:15,760 --> 00:55:18,080
Speaker 4: Like he's very clear, I oppose this thing that is

1156
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:18,960
Speaker 4: being done.

1157
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:23,000
Speaker 2: Democrats will ript Liberals got living him to shreds for

1158
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 2: daring to say that in some instances tariffs are good

1159
00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,440
Speaker 2: and that's where that's where the Democratic Party is going

1160
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 2: to be, unfortunately, and that is where so much of

1161
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 2: the country is going to be because it's difficult to

1162
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:38,719
Speaker 2: have this nuance like think, tariffs are a tool, right,

1163
00:55:38,719 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 2: they can be used in a good way, and they

1164
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:42,719
Speaker 2: can be used in a very bad way. But it's

1165
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:45,359
Speaker 2: hard to have that nuanced conversation when they're being used

1166
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:47,320
Speaker 2: to just intentionally crash the markets and blow up the

1167
00:55:47,360 --> 00:55:47,960
Speaker 2: whole economy.

1168
00:55:48,000 --> 00:55:49,000
Speaker 1: Totally, I totally agree.

1169
00:55:49,120 --> 00:55:50,960
Speaker 3: I can see it coming from a mile away, is

1170
00:55:51,000 --> 00:55:55,160
Speaker 3: that this negative polarization and increasing the way already the

1171
00:55:55,160 --> 00:55:57,240
Speaker 3: way that it is. The Democrats are done with tariffs,

1172
00:55:57,239 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 3: probably for an entire generation.

1173
00:55:59,280 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 1: Keep going.

1174
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:02,719
Speaker 3: The dependents will join you there, and eventually the non

1175
00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:05,240
Speaker 3: MAGA part or whatever is left of the Republican party,

1176
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:08,840
Speaker 3: and you'll find yourself at a supermajority who supports things.

1177
00:56:08,680 --> 00:56:11,400
Speaker 1: Like TPP or whatever, you know, and we're.

1178
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 3: Going to be right back from where we started twenty

1179
00:56:13,520 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 3: five years from now. And so this is where, look,

1180
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:18,920
Speaker 3: you do need to blame the practitioners, where if you're

1181
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:22,160
Speaker 3: gonna do something which is genuinely extraordinary, you have to

1182
00:56:22,200 --> 00:56:24,560
Speaker 3: do it right now. Nobody is saying Donald J. Trump

1183
00:56:24,600 --> 00:56:27,120
Speaker 3: is mister detail or any of that, but I mean,

1184
00:56:27,200 --> 00:56:29,839
Speaker 3: at a basic level, what people I think voted for

1185
00:56:30,160 --> 00:56:32,600
Speaker 3: is there's this idea that there's a senile old man

1186
00:56:32,640 --> 00:56:33,280
Speaker 3: in the White House.

1187
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:35,160
Speaker 1: We're going to restore things to normalcy.

1188
00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 3: And yes, we'll have our chaos in terms of Trump,

1189
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:42,719
Speaker 3: you know, drum thing about Mika Brazinski's facelift. But but

1190
00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:46,200
Speaker 3: and p goes up, the gospel gas price goes down,

1191
00:56:46,480 --> 00:56:49,480
Speaker 3: the people around him seem to generally ish more competent

1192
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 3: compared to these Jake Sullivan type idiots or Anthony Blincoln.

1193
00:56:53,280 --> 00:56:55,680
Speaker 3: So fine, but that's not what you're getting now. Like

1194
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:58,520
Speaker 3: you said, now you own this thing one hundred percent.

1195
00:56:58,840 --> 00:56:59,240
Speaker 1: Okay.

1196
00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:02,280
Speaker 3: You know, people say, like, oh, he's a world historic figure.

1197
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:05,000
Speaker 3: He's making a huge bet and it is true. Trump

1198
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 3: is actually fundamentally a gambler. He believes that he can

1199
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 3: do this and he can get away with it. Obviously,

1200
00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:12,280
Speaker 3: he's ten times more successful than I am in politics,

1201
00:57:12,320 --> 00:57:14,800
Speaker 3: so maybe he's right. But it's one of those where

1202
00:57:15,000 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 3: you can see all of the building blocks for a crisis.

1203
00:57:18,760 --> 00:57:21,360
Speaker 3: I was talking thinking about this with Doge as well.

1204
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:23,600
Speaker 3: At a certain point, it's no longer up to you.

1205
00:57:23,760 --> 00:57:27,280
Speaker 3: Like I said before about that whole airline disaster, imagine

1206
00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:28,920
Speaker 3: if they had fired air traffic controllers and you had

1207
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:31,120
Speaker 3: a crash. Even if you're not responsible that crash, you're

1208
00:57:31,120 --> 00:57:32,640
Speaker 3: getting blamed for that crash.

1209
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 1: Same thing with what's.

1210
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 3: Happening right now with the economic you know, with these

1211
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:40,360
Speaker 3: economic the tariffs and a potential recession. Let's say that

1212
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:44,920
Speaker 3: something totally out of the norm happens. Remember previous recessions

1213
00:57:45,040 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 3: that have sparked actual sell offs like this nine to

1214
00:57:47,760 --> 00:57:49,160
Speaker 3: eleven and the pandemic.

1215
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:52,960
Speaker 1: Who knows shit happens. That's one of the rules of

1216
00:57:53,040 --> 00:57:54,480
Speaker 1: running the world. Do you have no idea?

1217
00:57:54,640 --> 00:57:59,320
Speaker 3: Russia invades Ukraine, boom gas market entirely implode. Same October seventh,

1218
00:57:59,640 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 3: changed the entire route of every shipping container in the

1219
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:05,919
Speaker 3: entire world. You never you can't plan for such an event.

1220
00:58:05,960 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 3: So let's say he's got this grand plan and then boom,

1221
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:09,920
Speaker 3: something happens.

1222
00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 1: You know in the world.

1223
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:13,760
Speaker 3: Now you're in that fortieth order consequence. But you are

1224
00:58:13,800 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 3: going to bear one hundred percent of the responsibility for that.

1225
00:58:16,280 --> 00:58:18,240
Speaker 3: And people don't forgive and you know, honestly, they shouldn't

1226
00:58:18,240 --> 00:58:18,560
Speaker 3: forgive you.

1227
00:58:18,600 --> 00:58:19,480
Speaker 1: They shouldn't forgive you.

1228
00:58:19,480 --> 00:58:21,360
Speaker 3: He screwed people's lives and if you get laid off

1229
00:58:21,360 --> 00:58:23,120
Speaker 3: as a result of them, well, I don't know what

1230
00:58:23,160 --> 00:58:23,480
Speaker 3: to tell you.

1231
00:58:23,520 --> 00:58:25,080
Speaker 1: That's the number one thing you're not supposed to do.

1232
00:58:25,360 --> 00:58:28,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, he said some really wild things too, Like he

1233
00:58:28,760 --> 00:58:30,440
Speaker 2: said there should be no supply chains.

1234
00:58:30,440 --> 00:58:31,680
Speaker 4: They should all be in the US.

1235
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 2: This is like, it's like the philosophy of North Korea,

1236
00:58:35,200 --> 00:58:37,680
Speaker 2: like unironically the philosophy.

1237
00:58:37,120 --> 00:58:40,440
Speaker 3: As I've heard, my heart is in my heart, I

1238
00:58:40,480 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 3: am autarchist, which is what you're talking about. That's what

1239
00:58:43,400 --> 00:58:45,440
Speaker 3: the North Korean model is, And just why do we

1240
00:58:45,480 --> 00:58:47,960
Speaker 3: really need all of these other countries. That's where my

1241
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:50,120
Speaker 3: heart is. That is not where my head and my

1242
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:53,760
Speaker 3: stock portfolio. It's more the reality of all of the

1243
00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:56,120
Speaker 3: global supply chain. It would be great to get you know,

1244
00:58:56,200 --> 00:58:58,640
Speaker 3: twenty percent more autarchic, you know, be a nice little

1245
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:00,959
Speaker 3: goal for us. But you know, look, let's be real.

1246
00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 3: You know, if we want to do that, it's going

1247
00:59:02,160 --> 00:59:03,720
Speaker 3: to take a billion dollars in investment. We're going to

1248
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:06,720
Speaker 3: need actually not a billion, many many more than the

1249
00:59:07,040 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 3: hundreds and hundreds. Yeah, it's probably be a trillion dollars.

1250
00:59:09,640 --> 00:59:12,440
Speaker 3: And even that, maybe we'll get five ten percent. It's

1251
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:15,880
Speaker 3: a start at the very least. It's a philosophy. If anything,

1252
00:59:15,920 --> 00:59:19,200
Speaker 3: I think Trump is negatively polarizing US, and I think

1253
00:59:19,240 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 3: ten years from now, what you're going to watch is

1254
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:24,240
Speaker 3: Trump is a lot like FDR in that, you know,

1255
00:59:24,320 --> 00:59:26,919
Speaker 3: he showed people what was possible in such a way

1256
00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:28,760
Speaker 3: that people are like, I'm not so sure about this.

1257
00:59:29,000 --> 00:59:30,800
Speaker 3: Donald Trump will be the very last president to have

1258
00:59:30,800 --> 00:59:33,720
Speaker 3: IEBA authority. I'm one hundred percent confident of that. Donald

1259
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:35,480
Speaker 3: Trump will be the very last president to be able

1260
00:59:35,480 --> 00:59:38,240
Speaker 3: to you know, alien enemies. That's getting some sort of

1261
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:40,840
Speaker 3: you know, when the House takes credit just like they

1262
00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:43,000
Speaker 3: passed the twenty second Amendment, they're going to say and

1263
00:59:43,120 --> 00:59:46,480
Speaker 3: Congress has to approve by fifty or two votes or whatever,

1264
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:49,280
Speaker 3: and a lot of the things that he's pushing right now.

1265
00:59:49,400 --> 00:59:52,000
Speaker 3: The legacy of that will actually likely be one of

1266
00:59:52,200 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 3: reaction and reassertion I think by Congress obviously could be

1267
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:55,960
Speaker 3: totally wrong.

1268
00:59:56,000 --> 00:59:59,160
Speaker 2: But yeah, well, last thought on this on the sort

1269
00:59:59,160 --> 01:00:01,840
Speaker 2: of broad historical sweep, I mean, in part because of

1270
01:00:01,880 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 2: the disaster of the Smoot Holly terraces and how they

1271
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,960
Speaker 2: exacerbated the Great Depression. You know, progressives, FDR was a

1272
01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:10,840
Speaker 2: free trade guy. I mean, you know, moved very much

1273
01:00:10,840 --> 01:00:12,640
Speaker 2: in the direction of thing.

1274
01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:15,160
Speaker 1: It's not a hundred like that's a very free freedman

1275
01:00:15,240 --> 01:00:15,880
Speaker 1: and monitorist.

1276
01:00:16,040 --> 01:00:18,240
Speaker 2: But it did make the during depression worse. Like at

1277
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:20,320
Speaker 2: that time it was terrible economic policy.

1278
01:00:20,560 --> 01:00:23,520
Speaker 1: I'm still not ready to say it was. Well, okay, the.

1279
01:00:23,560 --> 01:00:26,840
Speaker 4: Monsters it was the only thing, yes.

1280
01:00:26,640 --> 01:00:28,800
Speaker 1: For and I do not think that is accurate. But

1281
01:00:28,800 --> 01:00:30,600
Speaker 1: this that's a much more nuance.

1282
01:00:30,800 --> 01:00:34,480
Speaker 2: But you know, back to my point, it is widely

1283
01:00:34,520 --> 01:00:37,440
Speaker 2: believed and was widely believed at the time that Smoot

1284
01:00:37,480 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 2: Holly exacerbated the Great Depression, and FDR's whole you know

1285
01:00:42,720 --> 01:00:45,880
Speaker 2: push was to roll back trade barriers, and that helps,

1286
01:00:46,080 --> 01:00:50,000
Speaker 2: you know, begins an era in which the progressive position

1287
01:00:50,160 --> 01:00:53,640
Speaker 2: on trade was for a long time lowering trade barriers

1288
01:00:53,720 --> 01:00:57,840
Speaker 2: and lowering tariffs. And during McKinley's time also there was

1289
01:00:57,840 --> 01:01:01,080
Speaker 2: actually pushback. It was somewhat divided depending on the industry

1290
01:01:01,080 --> 01:01:03,840
Speaker 2: and where you would doing, whether you're a farmer, a manufacturer, whatever.

1291
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:06,840
Speaker 2: But you know, there was a long period in which

1292
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:12,040
Speaker 2: the progressive position was a free trade position, and that changed,

1293
01:01:12,320 --> 01:01:14,880
Speaker 2: you know, over time. And this that's why, you know,

1294
01:01:14,960 --> 01:01:18,200
Speaker 2: I do think there is so there are so many

1295
01:01:18,240 --> 01:01:20,360
Speaker 2: facets to what is being done right now. It just

1296
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:23,560
Speaker 2: is impossible to wrap your heat around. And I can't

1297
01:01:23,600 --> 01:01:27,640
Speaker 2: think of another single policy move that has been made

1298
01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:30,960
Speaker 2: by a leader here or around the world. Maybe like

1299
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:32,840
Speaker 2: you know, our decision to enter World War two, but

1300
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:34,280
Speaker 2: that was sort of like made for us when we

1301
01:01:34,280 --> 01:01:37,320
Speaker 2: were attacked at Pearl Harbord, but that could have this

1302
01:01:37,480 --> 01:01:44,960
Speaker 2: level of both domestic and global radical fallout. And the

1303
01:01:45,040 --> 01:01:47,080
Speaker 2: other thing that we haven't even touched on here is

1304
01:01:47,320 --> 01:01:49,520
Speaker 2: the rest of the world also is going to get

1305
01:01:49,520 --> 01:01:51,800
Speaker 2: a say, you know, the Europeans are getting ready to

1306
01:01:51,800 --> 01:01:54,600
Speaker 2: announce what their retaliatory tariffs are going to be, or

1307
01:01:54,600 --> 01:01:57,200
Speaker 2: what their response is going to be. China's already announced

1308
01:01:57,480 --> 01:02:01,360
Speaker 2: quite a significant response You already have had a shift

1309
01:02:01,440 --> 01:02:03,919
Speaker 2: in the global power balance. You already had to move

1310
01:02:04,080 --> 01:02:08,480
Speaker 2: away somewhat from the dollar as well, and that too

1311
01:02:08,640 --> 01:02:13,560
Speaker 2: will have a massive global reordering effect, with consequences that

1312
01:02:13,640 --> 01:02:14,640
Speaker 2: are hard to comprehend.