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Speaker 1: Welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented by FanDuel here at the volume.
Speaker 1: Happy Thursday, everybody. I hope all of you guys are
Speaker 1: having a great week so far. We are almost to
Speaker 1: the weekend. Continuing our power rankings with number ten today
Speaker 1: and then number nine tomorrow and then into the next week.
Speaker 1: We will hit the final eight over the course of
Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks, and then starting septe we're
Speaker 1: right back into game breakdown, something I'm very very excited for.
Speaker 1: You guys know the drill before we get started. Follow
Speaker 1: me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt S. You guys,
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Speaker 1: get you can get them in audio form wherever you
Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Under Hoops tonight. So we're in a tier,
Speaker 1: a tier that I've called the puncher's chance tier, the
Speaker 1: tier of teams that I don't quite think have as
Speaker 1: much talent as the best teams in the league, but
Speaker 1: they have these wild cards, these players that have such
Speaker 1: big upsides that if they were to get hot for
Speaker 1: one reason or another, they could carry their team to
Speaker 1: the ultimate goal. They're long shots, but they absolutely have
Speaker 1: a chance, Like the Lakers with Lebron James and a
Speaker 1: D the Memphis Grizzlies with John Morant, and at number
Speaker 1: ten the Miami Heat with Jimmy Butler. Now there's you've
Speaker 1: got a factor in this off season when we're projecting
Speaker 1: ford not just looking at what the team was last year. Memphis,
Speaker 1: for instance, lost in the second round of the playoffs
Speaker 1: in six game to the eventual champion and had the
Speaker 1: second best record in basketball. So your gut tells you
Speaker 1: automatic top eight, right, But I'm looking at that and
Speaker 1: I'm going what was their biggest weakness? Well, it was
Speaker 1: shot creation and ball handling. Did they get any better
Speaker 1: on that front? No, I'd argue they got worse because
Speaker 1: they lost the Anthony Melton. He's probably their best bench
Speaker 1: shot creator in all likelihood. Um, So when you look
Speaker 1: at that situation and you factor in the Jaren Jackson injury,
Speaker 1: I have to move them down on my list, And
Speaker 1: so they fell back to number ten. Also, I'm factoring
Speaker 1: in ultimate playoff ceiling, and I think their lack of
Speaker 1: shot creation makes it extremely difficult for them to eventually
Speaker 1: get the trophy after jaw. They just don't have enough.
Speaker 1: Moving forward to the Miami Heat's very similar. You know,
Speaker 1: this is a Miami Heat team that had a weakness
Speaker 1: and shot creation did they address it, No they did not.
Speaker 1: Did they get any better anywhere else on the roster,
Speaker 1: No they did not. As a matter of fact, they
Speaker 1: lost p J. Tucker and now they're very thin in
Speaker 1: the front court. Um. So from that standpoint, and especially
Speaker 1: when I think other teams in the Eastern Conference are
Speaker 1: going to be better this year. I think Boston will
Speaker 1: be better with all the additions they've made. I think
Speaker 1: Milwaukee will be better just by being healthy. I think
Speaker 1: Philadelphia will be better just because James Harden will have
Speaker 1: a better season, and I believe continuity will start to begin. Uh,
Speaker 1: trying to integrate hard in that late in the season,
Speaker 1: it's just very difficult to do. I think giving him
Speaker 1: a full training camp in full season will go a
Speaker 1: long way towards helping them. The Eastern Conference is better
Speaker 1: in the Miami Heat got worse, So that's gonna move
Speaker 1: them down the list for me. So again, And someone
Speaker 1: said this in the YouTube comments yesterday, and I got
Speaker 1: a little chuckle out of it. But like someone said, like,
Speaker 1: I'm not really all that interested in Jason's numbers, Like
Speaker 1: the analysis is better. It's funny because that's the way
Speaker 1: I see it too. I'd be lying to you if
Speaker 1: I said that I care deeply about ranking, you know,
Speaker 1: the tenth and eleventh and twelfth best teams in the
Speaker 1: league in terms of the number of ranking. I am
Speaker 1: obviously more drawn towards the the analysis portion and really
Speaker 1: diving into the film and seeing what the teams like
Speaker 1: to do, seeing what they're good at and what they're
Speaker 1: bad at. That's what interests me the most. But I
Speaker 1: do put a certain amount of effort in to where
Speaker 1: I ranked teams, and I will attempt to have some
Speaker 1: kind of reasoning, and I wanted to give a little
Speaker 1: bit of background on why teams are where they were
Speaker 1: in that section of the list. So the Miami Heat
Speaker 1: last year, we're fifty three and twenty nine. They lost
Speaker 1: in Eastern Conference Finals to Boston, and they had one
Speaker 1: Jimmy pull up three in transition that had gone in
Speaker 1: would have sent Miami in all likelihood to the NBA Finals,
Speaker 1: although Boston would have had a chance to take the
Speaker 1: lead on the other end. They finished the season regular
Speaker 1: season twelfth in offense and fourth in defense. During the
Speaker 1: off season, like we mentioned before, they lost p J.
Speaker 1: Tucker to the Sixers. They resigned Victor Oladipo, which I
Speaker 1: thought was good. I I like Victor Oladipo a lot. Offensively,
Speaker 1: he's not nearly what he was when he was in Indiana.
Speaker 1: Uh still isn't shooting the ball as well as he
Speaker 1: needs to to be a real shot creator. But defensively
Speaker 1: he's still nearly as good as he used to be
Speaker 1: and as a point of attack defender, that just brings
Speaker 1: a lot of value in the NBA, and so I
Speaker 1: thought it was a good bet from Miami, hoping that
Speaker 1: some of his shot creation stuff improves over the course
Speaker 1: of this season, and with what he brings defensively, I
Speaker 1: think he's a playoff player. I like Victor Oladipo. That
Speaker 1: was a smart resigning, but he was on the floor
Speaker 1: in the Eastern Conference finals last year, so it's not
Speaker 1: something that improves the roster. They drafted in there with
Speaker 1: their first round draft pick. Uh, big swing forward kind
Speaker 1: of like a um you know, he's a very very
Speaker 1: tall wing. I don't think he's big and strong enough
Speaker 1: to be a big but the Nicola Jovic just who
Speaker 1: they drafted. I think with the loss of of p J. Tucker,
Speaker 1: they'll end up needing him to play a lot in
Speaker 1: a likelihood. Um, you'll notice that as we start to
Speaker 1: look at the at the depth chart. So it's gonna
Speaker 1: be really important for Heat culture to engage early on
Speaker 1: and get him ready to play NBA basketball. But I
Speaker 1: do not think that that is beyond the capabilities of
Speaker 1: the Miami Heat organization and beyond the capabilities of Eric Spoelstra.
Speaker 1: I've said this before, but I view the Miami Heat
Speaker 1: as Warriors East. I think that they maximize their talent
Speaker 1: better than anybody in the Eastern Conference. I think Eric
Speaker 1: Spoelstra is the best coach in the Eastern Conference, I think,
Speaker 1: and in terms of taking what they get and getting
Speaker 1: the absolute most out of it, they are the best
Speaker 1: at that. So maybe they'll be able to maximize that. However,
Speaker 1: they do have legitimate talent deficiencies, and we will get
Speaker 1: into that as we get further into this show. So,
Speaker 1: looking at the depth chart, at the guard position, they
Speaker 1: have Kyle Lowry, Victor Oladipo, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent and
Speaker 1: Max s Truce. Although Max Rus is big and strong
Speaker 1: enough to guard wings. On the wing, they have Jimmy Butler,
Speaker 1: Duncan Robinson, Tyler Harrow and Nikola Jovich. I'm calling him
Speaker 1: a wing because I don't think he'll be able to
Speaker 1: guard Biggs. And the general rule of thumb in basketball
Speaker 1: is your position is who you can guard, not what
Speaker 1: you do on the offensive end of the floor. Um, Big,
Speaker 1: bam At a Bio, and Dwayne Dedman. They also have
Speaker 1: Omer your seven and Orlando Robinson, but I don't view
Speaker 1: either of them as impactful players. Your seven will probably
Speaker 1: have to play quite a bit if with the loss
Speaker 1: of p J. Tucker, They're probably gonna have to go
Speaker 1: bigger than they're used to going. But at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, this is a team that's gonna go
Speaker 1: down with bam At a Bio at the five, and
Speaker 1: none of those other guys are gonna play. So this
Speaker 1: is a team that is a little bit thin at
Speaker 1: the forward position, especially with size and strength. With the
Speaker 1: loss of p J. Tucker. My guess is at some
Speaker 1: point during this regular season, either in the buy out
Speaker 1: market or in the trade market, they will attempt to
Speaker 1: address that shortcoming. UM. Looking at the offensive end of
Speaker 1: the four, Miami runs an incredibly diverse said of offensive sets. UM.
Speaker 1: I think they're the most diverse offense in the Eastern
Speaker 1: Conference by organization, just in terms of the the just
Speaker 1: the deep repertoire of things that they run. They run
Speaker 1: a ton of like Denver Nuggets esque drible handoff stuff
Speaker 1: um with bam at a bio operating out of the
Speaker 1: high post on top of the key uh. General idea
Speaker 1: there is guards are coming over the top and getting
Speaker 1: handoffs from bam at a bio. Guys are gonna have
Speaker 1: to chase over the top because of the shooting ability
Speaker 1: that allows them to get downhill. If bam Ata bios
Speaker 1: man drops back to help on those drives, he can
Speaker 1: turn and face and now he has an advantage, so
Speaker 1: they can get a lot of stuff out of that.
Speaker 1: They do a lot of like four high sets. We
Speaker 1: went over this yesterday when when we were talking about Memphis,
Speaker 1: But four high sets you have to two players at
Speaker 1: the the high post and you have two players on
Speaker 1: the extended wing, and then they run a lot of
Speaker 1: flex cuts out of that. So they'll have the guy
Speaker 1: at the high post run over and set a screen
Speaker 1: or sometimes just stay and then that wing will cut
Speaker 1: off of that downhill to get into the paint. They
Speaker 1: do that a lot with screening actions involving Kyle Lowry
Speaker 1: and Jimmy Butler because both of them screen really well
Speaker 1: and they're usually guarded by different positions, which allows one
Speaker 1: of them to get switches in a lot of cases.
Speaker 1: They also do a lot of clearing the side for
Speaker 1: BAM and Jimmy to run pick and roll pretty simple
Speaker 1: shooter at the top of the key shooter on the
Speaker 1: wing shooter in the left corner. Then they'll put Jimmy
Speaker 1: on the right side of the floor with Bam run
Speaker 1: pick and roll, it almost always results in a switch,
Speaker 1: and then the two of them frequently go into post
Speaker 1: ups from there. They do run a considerable amount of
Speaker 1: of post ups with Bam at a bio and Jimmy Butler,
Speaker 1: and then um a lot of mismatch attacking and isolation,
Speaker 1: specifically with Jimmy Butler. They do not run a lot
Speaker 1: of isolations as a team, but Jimmy Butler himself still
Speaker 1: runs quite a bit, especially attacking mismatches. Didn't have a
Speaker 1: great season with that in the regular season last year,
Speaker 1: but as you guys saw in the Saw in the postseason,
Speaker 1: he always takes it up a level and can generate
Speaker 1: great stuff out of that. The majority of their offense
Speaker 1: is dribble, handoffs, and off screen actions. The main reason
Speaker 1: for this is they lack legitimate shot creation. Outside of
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler, they don't have another player on the team
Speaker 1: that can consistently create his own shot. They have guys
Speaker 1: that do okay in specific matchups, and we'll put up
Speaker 1: decent efficiency numbers on really low volume because they're picky
Speaker 1: about it. But in terms of volume, the only player
Speaker 1: that isolates and does it well and frequently is Jimmy Butler.
Speaker 1: Because of that, they can't run an offense that is
Speaker 1: primarily predicated on attacking matchups. They have to run sets
Speaker 1: to get their guys in advantage. A lot of the
Speaker 1: guys on the roster, Kyle Lowry, even Max s trus Gave,
Speaker 1: gave Vincent, Tyler, Tyler Harrow, these are all guys that
Speaker 1: can attack with an advantage. They're good advantage extenders, they're
Speaker 1: good play finishers, but they're not guys that create that
Speaker 1: initial advantage. It's a big part of why, in spite
Speaker 1: of the fact that they're so well coached, in spite
Speaker 1: of the fact that their player development is so good,
Speaker 1: that they were the twelve best offense in the league
Speaker 1: last year, their half court offense ended up being disastrous
Speaker 1: for them against Boston, and it was something they had
Speaker 1: to overcome throughout that throughout that specific series. One of
Speaker 1: the big reasons why that Boston series dragged out as
Speaker 1: long as it did to seven games was Boston running
Speaker 1: that stupid ass drop coverage that I was criticizing them
Speaker 1: for the entire playoff run. It nearly got them beat
Speaker 1: against Miami, and it did get them beat against Golden State.
Speaker 1: I thought it was email Judoka's biggest mistake of that
Speaker 1: playoff run. But by by running that drop coverage, it
Speaker 1: allowed Miami's weakness, which is shot creation, to go unchallenged.
Speaker 1: And and that was why that series extended the way
Speaker 1: that it did. UM There, in dribble handoff situations, they
Speaker 1: were second in frequency in the league, so they ran
Speaker 1: the second most drible handoffs out of anybody in the NBA,
Speaker 1: and they were fourth inefficiency. So when you let them
Speaker 1: get to their dribble handoff offense, that you will score
Speaker 1: pretty well. That's why switching is the best defense to
Speaker 1: run against the Miami offense. UM It gives advantages to
Speaker 1: players that struggle to create advantages. Duncan uh Duncan Robinson,
Speaker 1: Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent and Jay uh and Jimmy Butler
Speaker 1: were all in the seventie percentile or better in dribble
Speaker 1: handoff situations, so they all did really well. Tyler Harrow
Speaker 1: was surprisingly inefficient, We're gonna get to that later on
Speaker 1: in the show. And their off screen offense that was all.
Speaker 1: They were also the third most frequent off screen offense
Speaker 1: in the entire league. They were ninth in post up frequency,
Speaker 1: eleventh in post up efficiency. Like I said, when they
Speaker 1: would clear the side for Jimmy Butler and Bam at
Speaker 1: a bio, nine times out of ten it would result
Speaker 1: in a switch and they'd pull the ball out and
Speaker 1: whichever player they thought had a better matchup would take
Speaker 1: them down to the block. And that was where they
Speaker 1: were getting that type of offense. Jimmy and Bam combined
Speaker 1: for five and a half post ups per game and
Speaker 1: scored at about one point per possession, which is really
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Speaker 1: official sports book partner of the NFL um they were
Speaker 1: tent in ISO efficiency, but their volume was incredibly low.
Speaker 1: They only ran about six isolations per game, including six
Speaker 1: point one in the postseason. To give you some perspective,
Speaker 1: the Raptors, the Wolves, the Nets, the Bucks, the MAVs,
Speaker 1: and the Sixers all ran at least ten or more
Speaker 1: isolations per game, some of them more than fifteen. So
Speaker 1: that they're an extremely low volume isolation team because they're
Speaker 1: picky about when they do it, but they were relatively
Speaker 1: efficient slightly above average when they did so. They also
Speaker 1: pushed the ball in transition selectively. They were very efficient
Speaker 1: transition team. They just didn't do it often. They were
Speaker 1: one of the slowest paced teams in the league. Some
Speaker 1: of that's to be expected because of the age of
Speaker 1: their roster and athleticism is not necessarily a strength. They
Speaker 1: do have great athletes on the team, guys like Jimmy
Speaker 1: Butler in bam At a bio but intend that like
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler is a little older, he's a little bit
Speaker 1: more of a strangle the pace type of forward, which
Speaker 1: I actually like. I like. I prefer to strangle the
Speaker 1: pace because I think it throws other teams out of rhythm.
Speaker 1: But what Miami does really well, especially with their defense,
Speaker 1: by being forwardly aggressive, by playing passing lanes and being
Speaker 1: aggressive on ball handlers. It for it forces turnovers that
Speaker 1: allow you to push the ball in transition. They were
Speaker 1: twenty two and transition attempts, but six and transition efficiency.
Speaker 1: That's how it manifests when you're picky about when you're
Speaker 1: when you run, when you run when you have an
Speaker 1: advantage rather than just running for the sake of running.
Speaker 1: They were only an okay pick and roll team low
Speaker 1: and volume lowan efficiency. That's that's one of the biggest
Speaker 1: reasons why. And as we zoom out from them on
Speaker 1: the offensive end of the floor, and only pat Riley
Speaker 1: knows what he offered, and only Danny Ainge knows whether
Speaker 1: or not he was really willing to consider it. But
Speaker 1: I was really surprised that Miami didn't go more. We're
Speaker 1: all in for Donovan Mitchell. He was a specific type
Speaker 1: of player that I thought would have been a really
Speaker 1: good fit for them because of BAM's offensive versatility and
Speaker 1: what he could do as a ball screener. We talked
Speaker 1: a lot about this when we were doing the uh um,
Speaker 1: the Utah Jazz stuff, excuse me, the Donovi Donovan Mitchell
Speaker 1: trade stuff in the in the Cleveland Cavalier stuff. Donovan
Speaker 1: Mitchell is one of the best volume pick and role
Speaker 1: players in all of basketball. That would have been a
Speaker 1: really interesting dynamic to add to this team. He also
Speaker 1: did really well in isolation, so like it was kind
Speaker 1: of a no brainer to fix a very specific need
Speaker 1: on this roster. In addition to that, like, Donovan Mitchell's
Speaker 1: biggest weakness is defense, is defense right now, right, And
Speaker 1: the Miami Heat a kind of famous for pulling the
Speaker 1: best out of each other in that regard, and so
Speaker 1: I thought it was it was it was the perfect
Speaker 1: type of player for them to go after, a player
Speaker 1: that I thought was somewhat achievable, and it just didn't
Speaker 1: pan out. And again, like only pat Riley knows how
Speaker 1: close he came to actually pulling that off, or whether
Speaker 1: it was something that he was passive about or not.
Speaker 1: I know there are lots of complications as it comes
Speaker 1: to the c b A for that kind of thing too,
Speaker 1: But that would have been a player that I really
Speaker 1: would have liked to see with Miami moving on to
Speaker 1: the defensive end of the floor. So they are a very,
Speaker 1: very switch heavy team. Um, this is to be expected.
Speaker 1: I've talked a lot about modern basketball, and if you
Speaker 1: guys have heard me talk about this, I've I've discussed that,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, the most effective modern offense strategy is
Speaker 1: five out because of how difficult it is to cover
Speaker 1: ground in space in the improved ball handling, shooting and
Speaker 1: decision making around the league, if you can really spread
Speaker 1: a team and make them make multiple defensive rotations, you
Speaker 1: can get great stuff out of it. That's something I
Speaker 1: believe very strongly in. On the defensive end of the floor,
Speaker 1: I think that the best strategy is switching. We talked
Speaker 1: a lot about this. There there's pros and cons to it.
Speaker 1: You the downsides are as you tend to give up
Speaker 1: rebounding mismatches, you tend to give up isolation mismatches. There
Speaker 1: are downsides. Guys will make shots over the top, guys
Speaker 1: will get offensive rebound putbacks. But the flip side of
Speaker 1: that is it requires a great deal of communication and
Speaker 1: if as long as you communicate well, it takes away
Speaker 1: physical exertion. It's hard physically to fight over the top.
Speaker 1: Of the screens, you get beat up, especially over the
Speaker 1: course of a series, even great chase over the top
Speaker 1: of screen teams, teams like Boston were eventually dying on
Speaker 1: screens because it's just really hard to do. It wears
Speaker 1: on you physically. It changes the exertion to something mental.
Speaker 1: So as long as you're focused and as long as
Speaker 1: you've put in the rep UH the amount of reps
Speaker 1: in practice, you can get good at switching so that
Speaker 1: you don't have to exert yourself physically. You just are
Speaker 1: paying attention in terms of UH, in terms of mental exertion.
Speaker 1: And then most importantly, it stagnates the opponent when you
Speaker 1: switch actions. It neutralizes offensive sets. Especially again, like we said,
Speaker 1: if you do it right and you do it well,
Speaker 1: as soon as you neutralize offensive sets, as soon as
Speaker 1: you neutralize pick and rolls, it turns teams into isolation teams.
Speaker 1: You know, in that first round series against Atlanta for instance,
Speaker 1: and you Miami Heat fans probably remember this very well.
Speaker 1: Almost from the opening UH tip there was Trey Young
Speaker 1: just didn't know what to do. He's coming off these
Speaker 1: ball screens and instead of switching, Bamata Bio is just
Speaker 1: running out on him, and when he runs out on him,
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, he's just kind of looking around like, Okay,
Speaker 1: what am I gonna do? I slate bam outa Bio
Speaker 1: like I'm not gonna get around him. I'm gonna shoot
Speaker 1: a crazy step back three and and it turned Atlanta's
Speaker 1: offense into the mud and slowed them down. They lost
Speaker 1: their rhythm and they really fell apart, and Trey Young
Speaker 1: had a nightmare series. I am a huge believer in
Speaker 1: switching and now there are a couple of different things.
Speaker 1: You need to have the right personnel right like Bamata
Speaker 1: Bio and we're gonna talk about this a little bit
Speaker 1: more later. He's one of the best switching bigs in
Speaker 1: all of basketball. Personnel helps their guards. Guys like Max
Speaker 1: Struss and Kyle Lowry can guard up a position like
Speaker 1: they're not gonna get bullied by big forwards, at least
Speaker 1: not very easily. So that helps. So you gotta have
Speaker 1: the right personnel, and you also have to do it well.
Speaker 1: Like we talked a lot about schemes on the show.
Speaker 1: Different offensive sets, you know, h uh, floor spacing, different
Speaker 1: pick and roll concepts, and then on the defensive end
Speaker 1: of the form. We talked about different pick and roll coverages,
Speaker 1: different defensive concepts. None of that matters if you don't
Speaker 1: do it well. A switching defense that is run like
Speaker 1: shit isn't gonna get stops. You know. Like if you
Speaker 1: have really good spacing in terms of where your players
Speaker 1: are positioned on the floor, but none of them can
Speaker 1: shoot and dribble, then you don't really have spacing, you
Speaker 1: know what I mean. So, like execution is also a
Speaker 1: big part of it. But I do think that switching
Speaker 1: is the best modern defensive concept, and I think it's
Speaker 1: really interesting and smart that pat Riley has built the
Speaker 1: roster in a man inner that makes them capable of
Speaker 1: running that type of defensive scheme. And it's their head coach,
Speaker 1: who's very forward thinking and ahead of the times, who's
Speaker 1: leaning very strongly into that defensive concept. You know, Still,
Speaker 1: to this day, even with that successful switching as ben,
Speaker 1: even with what the Houston Rockets in two thousand eighteen
Speaker 1: did to the most talented roster ever in the Golden
Speaker 1: State Warriors in the Conference finals by switching everything, even
Speaker 1: with all of that, teams are still slow to adopt it.
Speaker 1: And the main reason why is drop coverage is just easier.
Speaker 1: It's easier on your bigs, it's easier to use in
Speaker 1: the regular season. It's an innings eater. It's airring on
Speaker 1: the side of protecting the paint and giving up pull
Speaker 1: up jump shooting. It's just the easy way out. And
Speaker 1: kudos to the Miami Heat and to Rik Spoelshred pat
Speaker 1: Riley and everybody on that roster for being more willing
Speaker 1: to do the more difficult job because it translates better
Speaker 1: to playoff success. And again all comes down to why
Speaker 1: Miami is so much better at maximizing their talent than
Speaker 1: the other teams in the league. Um, but again, they're
Speaker 1: one of the the more switch heavy teams in the league,
Speaker 1: even in pick and roll. Um bamad Bio, like I
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, he's the guy who unlocks all of that.
Speaker 1: He's not quite as gifted as a rim protector as
Speaker 1: like an Anthony Davis or as a you know, Rudy Gobert,
Speaker 1: Jana Santana Coumpo, but he's actually better than all three
Speaker 1: of those guys switching out onto the perimeter. He's more
Speaker 1: mobile and just has better instincts on how to move
Speaker 1: his feet against the perimeter. Player. That kind of makes
Speaker 1: him into the ultimate switching forward because he can functionally
Speaker 1: play rim protector while also playing the role in a
Speaker 1: five out switching scheme. He unlocks everything that they do defensively,
Speaker 1: and it's why bam At a Bio is as effective
Speaker 1: a basketball player as he is. Um the Mighty Heat
Speaker 1: are are big on FOURD aggression picking up ball handlers,
Speaker 1: you know, sooner than other teams are willing to, at
Speaker 1: least when they cross half court in many situations in
Speaker 1: full court scenarios. Uh, it's it seems to me that
Speaker 1: Sposter seems to prefer kind of attacking as soon as
Speaker 1: they cross half court because you can't use retreat dribbles
Speaker 1: at that point. They had a lot of success against
Speaker 1: Boston with that. They were seventh in points off of
Speaker 1: turnovers this year. That tells you all you need to know.
Speaker 1: They understand that their weaknesses in the half court offensively,
Speaker 1: and they use that as an opportunity to to understand
Speaker 1: their weakness and push the advantage in transition as much
Speaker 1: as possible. We talked about that a lot with Memphis
Speaker 1: yesterday as well. I'll give you an example. So in
Speaker 1: that Boston Celtics series, the Miami Heat got utterly obliterated
Speaker 1: in the half court. They averaged zero point eight six
Speaker 1: points per possession against Boston in the half court. On
Speaker 1: the other end of the floor, when they were in
Speaker 1: the half court, defensively, Boston was getting zero point seven
Speaker 1: points per possession in the half court. That's the equivalent
Speaker 1: to a plus eleven net rating if the game stayed
Speaker 1: in the half court. That's dominant. That would in most
Speaker 1: seasons be the best net rating and all of basketball
Speaker 1: in the aggregate for the whole season. So with as
Speaker 1: dominant as Boston was over Miami and the half court,
Speaker 1: how did that series drag to seven games? How did
Speaker 1: they have a chance to win it at the end?
Speaker 1: They did it in transition. They had fifty eight steals
Speaker 1: in that series, and they averaged one point three one
Speaker 1: points per possession pushing in transition office steals. So again,
Speaker 1: like there are many facets to basketball, and obviously the
Speaker 1: core facet is half court shot creation and half court defense,
Speaker 1: and it's very important for you to be good in
Speaker 1: those areas, but there are all these other ancillary parts
Speaker 1: of the game of basketball that you need to be
Speaker 1: great at, whether that's you know, taking care of the
Speaker 1: basketball voting turnovers. Take a look at the Boss and Celtics,
Speaker 1: whether that's squeezing out fringe possessions, offensive rebounds, pushing in transition,
Speaker 1: the reverse to that on defense securing defensive rebounds transition defense.
Speaker 1: Boston was a great half court defense, they were a
Speaker 1: horrific transition defense because they would frequently fall down and
Speaker 1: beg for foul calls on the other end of the
Speaker 1: floor rather than prioritizing getting back in transition. It's kind
Speaker 1: of like special teams in football, or like manufacturing runs
Speaker 1: in baseball by stealing bases and sacrifice bunds, sacrifice flies,
Speaker 1: things along those lines. You know, in the core facets
Speaker 1: of the game, winning is part of it, but there
Speaker 1: are a lot of other elements to the game, and
Speaker 1: the best teams are always the teams that maximize the
Speaker 1: fringe elements of the game. In Miami as a team
Speaker 1: that has always maximized those fringe elements, last thing I
Speaker 1: wanted to say about the defensive end of the floor
Speaker 1: with Miami is uh, the defensive adjustments and the power
Speaker 1: that Eric Spoelster has in a playoff series to win
Speaker 1: in the chess match, So I'll give you just two examples.
Speaker 1: Uh and and this is a big part of why
Speaker 1: they have such a high playoff upside. Um. Boston is
Speaker 1: a week ball handling team, as we all know. As
Speaker 1: that series progressed, um Eric Spoelstra was more intent on
Speaker 1: pressuring the basketball and gambling more, even if at the
Speaker 1: risk of getting out of position and giving up baskets.
Speaker 1: On the other end, I thought it was a really
Speaker 1: smart adjustment from Marik Spoelstra because it actually caused Boston
Speaker 1: to lose their head for extended stretches in that series,
Speaker 1: and it's a huge part of why it extended as
Speaker 1: long as it did. That was an adjustment for Marik Spoelstra.
Speaker 1: Look at the Philadelphia seventy series. Joel Embiid. They didn't
Speaker 1: have anybody who could really guard him straight up, not
Speaker 1: even beam at a bio. He's too big, right. But
Speaker 1: one of the things they were doing that I thought
Speaker 1: was really really smart was they were fronting Joel Embiid
Speaker 1: and bringing backside help, and when they did, it made
Speaker 1: it so that Philly just kind of passed the ball
Speaker 1: around the perimeter and didn't know how to get it
Speaker 1: into em beat and that kind of site them beat out,
Speaker 1: and don't get me wrong, injuries played a role. He
Speaker 1: ended up getting hurt in that series or in it
Speaker 1: might have been the previous series. It was, Yeah, he
Speaker 1: got hurt in the previous series against Toronto, but I
Speaker 1: know his head wasn't a percent in it because of
Speaker 1: the orble fracture or whatever. But I also think that
Speaker 1: Eric Spelser did a really nice job of finding out
Speaker 1: how to frustrate Joel Embiid through bal denial, and it
Speaker 1: was a really really smart scheme he used to do. So.
Speaker 1: Fronting the post is difficult. It's a very physically taxing job,
Speaker 1: and it also requires really sound rotations on the back
Speaker 1: end because you're obviously giving up the over the top
Speaker 1: lob pass and when you're offering help on the backside,
Speaker 1: it also opens up the skip pass. But their rotations
Speaker 1: were so sound around that that it did a pretty
Speaker 1: damn good job of disrupting Phillies offense, and towards the
Speaker 1: end of the series it kind of came down to
Speaker 1: James Harden his ability to create shots, which obviously he
Speaker 1: wasn't able to do so credit to Erik Spoelstra. That's
Speaker 1: a huge wild card for them. In any playoff series
Speaker 1: is that he's usually the smartest guy on the bench
Speaker 1: on both benches, and his ability to make those adjustments
Speaker 1: and make other teams feel uncomfortable as a huge weapon
Speaker 1: in Miami's in Miami's toolbox. So moving on to the
Speaker 1: best case scenarios, and before we do that, I kind
Speaker 1: of want to summarize really really quick. This is an
Speaker 1: excellent defensive team that is built for playoff basketball. They
Speaker 1: are stout on the perimeter. You know, Max rus and
Speaker 1: Kyle Lowry are strong and can guard up a position,
Speaker 1: and then Bam has position flexibility to switch out of
Speaker 1: the center position. So as a team, they're constructed for
Speaker 1: playoff defense and especially with switching, that's great. Offensively, they
Speaker 1: maximize their talent with lots of scheme diversity. They run
Speaker 1: tons of different sets. They are not repetitive, they're not predictable.
Speaker 1: They're very good at creating advantage is for their guards,
Speaker 1: who are bad at creating advantages for themselves. But this
Speaker 1: is a weak ball handling team that struggles to create
Speaker 1: advantages against defense that can get ahead of their sets,
Speaker 1: especially when teams don't run drop coverage against them and
Speaker 1: are willing to switch it forces them to rely on
Speaker 1: shock creation, and it's not a strength of theirs. The
Speaker 1: only superpower they have that can overcome this is Jimmy
Speaker 1: Butler and his ability to play above and beyond even
Speaker 1: his own capability in a playoff setting. He this is
Speaker 1: why I thought they needed Donovan Mitchell. This is why
Speaker 1: I thought they should have been more aggressive on that front.
Speaker 1: But Jimmy Butler. Let's say they stay healthy with Eric
Speaker 1: Boelscher and what he does to maximize them on the
Speaker 1: offensive and defensive end of the floor. If Jimmy Butler
Speaker 1: can play is to the to the highest end of
Speaker 1: his capability like he did in that playoff front, they're
Speaker 1: capable of beating anybody. All of these weaknesses I've described
Speaker 1: were true last year too, and they came one shot
Speaker 1: away from making it to the NBA Finals. Now, I
Speaker 1: think they would have lost soundly to Golden State, but
Speaker 1: make no mistake like they absolutely have a puncher's chance
Speaker 1: because of what Jimmy Butler is capable of. He has
Speaker 1: demonstrated that that will always put them in this mix.
Speaker 1: If they stay healthy and Jimmy Butler's stays healthy and
Speaker 1: he gets hot, they can beat anybody. Therefore, they are
Speaker 1: a contender end of story. For me, that is their
Speaker 1: best case scenario, but their worst case scenario health can
Speaker 1: rear it's ugly head again. Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowrty
Speaker 1: both broke down towards the end of the season. They
Speaker 1: were playing, but they were limited. Jimmy was in really
Speaker 1: rough physical shape in the middle of that Boston Celtics series,
Speaker 1: and the loss of p J. Tucker makes them really
Speaker 1: thin in the front court. Um, you're probably gonna have
Speaker 1: to play Jimmy Butler a lot at the four now.
Speaker 1: I hope that they addressed that this off during the season,
Speaker 1: either in the trade market or in the buying market
Speaker 1: by beating up that forward position. Otherwise, they need Nikola
Speaker 1: Yovich to be ready or Jovic or Yovich, I'm not
Speaker 1: sure how to pronounce it. They need him to be
Speaker 1: ready to lay and I'm just not sure that he's
Speaker 1: going to be. And also I think he's a little
Speaker 1: too thin to be able to guard bigger forwards in
Speaker 1: the league. This team is with their lack of depth,
Speaker 1: they are one severe injury away from basically being a
Speaker 1: first round exit, or worse, like if Kyle Lowry gets hurt,
Speaker 1: it greatly limits their perimeter size and switch ability. Same
Speaker 1: goes for Jimmy Butler, same goes for Bamata Bio. They're
Speaker 1: just kind of heavily exposed on that front. I don't
Speaker 1: think they can weather an injury. That to me, has
Speaker 1: moved them down the list. The biggest X factor on
Speaker 1: this team is Tyler Harrow. The Miami Heat desperately need
Speaker 1: him to take a significant leap as a shot creator. Now.
Speaker 1: I know when you look at the numbers and Miami
Speaker 1: Heat fans are gonna want to say this, Hey, he
Speaker 1: averaged twenty one points per game last year on fifty
Speaker 1: true shooting. How is that not a legitimate shot creator? Well,
Speaker 1: you have to dig deeper into it. The vast majority
Speaker 1: of Tyler Harrow's offensive success came in spot up situations.
Speaker 1: He is amazing attacking closeouts, one of the very best
Speaker 1: in the league. Why because he's a knockdown three point
Speaker 1: shooter and he's very good at continuing that advantage into
Speaker 1: the lane. Because he could shoot a pull up fifteen footer,
Speaker 1: he could shoot floaters in the lane, and he's athletic
Speaker 1: enough to get all the way to the rim right
Speaker 1: so in spot up situations, he's one of the very
Speaker 1: best in the league. He was in the percentile for
Speaker 1: spot up possessions out of all NBA players. That's excellent.
Speaker 1: He averaged one point to three points per spot up possession.
Speaker 1: That's freaking incredible. That's where he succelled. But he was
Speaker 1: either average to below average in everything else. Below average
Speaker 1: in isolations, you know, average to below average in dribble handoffs,
Speaker 1: average to below average coming off the screens. In any
Speaker 1: situation where they were actually running plays for him, he
Speaker 1: wasn't producing at a high level. The vast majority of
Speaker 1: his offensive creation that was efficient was coming out of
Speaker 1: spot up situations. The scoring production is unassailable, but in
Speaker 1: ord her for this team to have a real playoff
Speaker 1: ceiling that can contend with the Boston's and the Golden
Speaker 1: States and the Clippers and the Bucks of the world,
Speaker 1: they need Tyler Harrow to get to the point where
Speaker 1: he can create his own shot. They also need him
Speaker 1: to be able to stay on the floor defensively. He's
Speaker 1: a little bit more of a defensive liability right now
Speaker 1: than the Miami Heat would like for him to be. So,
Speaker 1: from that standpoint, if this team desperately needs a high
Speaker 1: level shot creator, and they desperately need a high level
Speaker 1: shot creator creator that can stay on the floor. Tyler
Speaker 1: Harrow is the answer to that question. But he's only
Speaker 1: gonna be able to stay on the floor if he
Speaker 1: can defend. And he only could be a high level
Speaker 1: shot creator if he learns how to succeed out of
Speaker 1: one of those situations office screens, driple handoffs, isolations. He
Speaker 1: needs to get to the point where he can create
Speaker 1: his own shot. All right, guys, that is all I
Speaker 1: have for today. We will be back tomorrow with number nine.
Speaker 1: As always, I sincerely appreciate your support and we'll see
Speaker 1: you next time. And the volume