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I hope all of you guys are 37 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 1: having a great week so far. We are almost to 38 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 1: the weekend. Continuing our power rankings with number ten today 39 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:43,119 Speaker 1: and then number nine tomorrow and then into the next week. 40 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: We will hit the final eight over the course of 41 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:48,519 Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks, and then starting septe we're 42 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: right back into game breakdown, something I'm very very excited for. 43 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: You guys know the drill before we get started. Follow 44 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 1: me on Twitter at underscore Jason lt S. You guys, 45 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 1: don't miss any show announcements. Subscrib right to the volumes 46 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: YouTube channels. You don't miss any more of a videos. 47 00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 1: And if you miss one of these videos and you 48 00:03:04,400 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: can't get back over to YouTube to finish, you can 49 00:03:06,800 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 1: get you can get them in audio form wherever you 50 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Under Hoops tonight. So we're in a tier, 51 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 1: a tier that I've called the puncher's chance tier, the 52 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:20,280 Speaker 1: tier of teams that I don't quite think have as 53 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: much talent as the best teams in the league, but 54 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 1: they have these wild cards, these players that have such 55 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,680 Speaker 1: big upsides that if they were to get hot for 56 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:33,240 Speaker 1: one reason or another, they could carry their team to 57 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:37,040 Speaker 1: the ultimate goal. They're long shots, but they absolutely have 58 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 1: a chance, Like the Lakers with Lebron James and a 59 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: D the Memphis Grizzlies with John Morant, and at number 60 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:48,880 Speaker 1: ten the Miami Heat with Jimmy Butler. Now there's you've 61 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 1: got a factor in this off season when we're projecting 62 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: ford not just looking at what the team was last year. Memphis, 63 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: for instance, lost in the second round of the playoffs 64 00:03:59,160 --> 00:04:02,280 Speaker 1: in six game to the eventual champion and had the 65 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: second best record in basketball. So your gut tells you 66 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: automatic top eight, right, But I'm looking at that and 67 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 1: I'm going what was their biggest weakness? Well, it was 68 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 1: shot creation and ball handling. Did they get any better 69 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 1: on that front? No, I'd argue they got worse because 70 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 1: they lost the Anthony Melton. He's probably their best bench 71 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:26,280 Speaker 1: shot creator in all likelihood. Um, So when you look 72 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:29,799 Speaker 1: at that situation and you factor in the Jaren Jackson injury, 73 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 1: I have to move them down on my list, And 74 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 1: so they fell back to number ten. Also, I'm factoring 75 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,680 Speaker 1: in ultimate playoff ceiling, and I think their lack of 76 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 1: shot creation makes it extremely difficult for them to eventually 77 00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,240 Speaker 1: get the trophy after jaw. They just don't have enough. 78 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 1: Moving forward to the Miami Heat's very similar. You know, 79 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 1: this is a Miami Heat team that had a weakness 80 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: and shot creation did they address it, No they did not. 81 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,559 Speaker 1: Did they get any better anywhere else on the roster, 82 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 1: No they did not. As a matter of fact, they 83 00:05:01,520 --> 00:05:04,479 Speaker 1: lost p J. Tucker and now they're very thin in 84 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:08,160 Speaker 1: the front court. Um. So from that standpoint, and especially 85 00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: when I think other teams in the Eastern Conference are 86 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 1: going to be better this year. I think Boston will 87 00:05:12,880 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 1: be better with all the additions they've made. I think 88 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:19,240 Speaker 1: Milwaukee will be better just by being healthy. I think 89 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:22,120 Speaker 1: Philadelphia will be better just because James Harden will have 90 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:27,080 Speaker 1: a better season, and I believe continuity will start to begin. Uh, 91 00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:29,599 Speaker 1: trying to integrate hard in that late in the season, 92 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:31,840 Speaker 1: it's just very difficult to do. I think giving him 93 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:33,719 Speaker 1: a full training camp in full season will go a 94 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:36,919 Speaker 1: long way towards helping them. The Eastern Conference is better 95 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:40,120 Speaker 1: in the Miami Heat got worse, So that's gonna move 96 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: them down the list for me. So again, And someone 97 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: said this in the YouTube comments yesterday, and I got 98 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:48,680 Speaker 1: a little chuckle out of it. But like someone said, like, 99 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: I'm not really all that interested in Jason's numbers, Like 100 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 1: the analysis is better. It's funny because that's the way 101 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 1: I see it too. I'd be lying to you if 102 00:05:57,080 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 1: I said that I care deeply about ranking, you know, 103 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: the tenth and eleventh and twelfth best teams in the 104 00:06:03,839 --> 00:06:06,159 Speaker 1: league in terms of the number of ranking. I am 105 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 1: obviously more drawn towards the the analysis portion and really 106 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 1: diving into the film and seeing what the teams like 107 00:06:13,880 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 1: to do, seeing what they're good at and what they're 108 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 1: bad at. That's what interests me the most. But I 109 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,880 Speaker 1: do put a certain amount of effort in to where 110 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:22,840 Speaker 1: I ranked teams, and I will attempt to have some 111 00:06:22,960 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 1: kind of reasoning, and I wanted to give a little 112 00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 1: bit of background on why teams are where they were 113 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 1: in that section of the list. So the Miami Heat 114 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:34,600 Speaker 1: last year, we're fifty three and twenty nine. They lost 115 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 1: in Eastern Conference Finals to Boston, and they had one 116 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:41,480 Speaker 1: Jimmy pull up three in transition that had gone in 117 00:06:41,560 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 1: would have sent Miami in all likelihood to the NBA Finals, 118 00:06:44,760 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: although Boston would have had a chance to take the 119 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 1: lead on the other end. They finished the season regular 120 00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 1: season twelfth in offense and fourth in defense. During the 121 00:06:53,520 --> 00:06:55,359 Speaker 1: off season, like we mentioned before, they lost p J. 122 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 1: Tucker to the Sixers. They resigned Victor Oladipo, which I 123 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,839 Speaker 1: thought was good. I I like Victor Oladipo a lot. Offensively, 124 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: he's not nearly what he was when he was in Indiana. 125 00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 1: Uh still isn't shooting the ball as well as he 126 00:07:10,320 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 1: needs to to be a real shot creator. But defensively 127 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 1: he's still nearly as good as he used to be 128 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 1: and as a point of attack defender, that just brings 129 00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: a lot of value in the NBA, and so I 130 00:07:22,920 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: thought it was a good bet from Miami, hoping that 131 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 1: some of his shot creation stuff improves over the course 132 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: of this season, and with what he brings defensively, I 133 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: think he's a playoff player. I like Victor Oladipo. That 134 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 1: was a smart resigning, but he was on the floor 135 00:07:36,080 --> 00:07:37,960 Speaker 1: in the Eastern Conference finals last year, so it's not 136 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 1: something that improves the roster. They drafted in there with 137 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 1: their first round draft pick. Uh, big swing forward kind 138 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,840 Speaker 1: of like a um you know, he's a very very 139 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 1: tall wing. I don't think he's big and strong enough 140 00:07:50,520 --> 00:07:53,640 Speaker 1: to be a big but the Nicola Jovic just who 141 00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: they drafted. I think with the loss of of p J. Tucker, 142 00:07:57,520 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: they'll end up needing him to play a lot in 143 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: a likelihood. Um, you'll notice that as we start to 144 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,400 Speaker 1: look at the at the depth chart. So it's gonna 145 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 1: be really important for Heat culture to engage early on 146 00:08:08,800 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 1: and get him ready to play NBA basketball. But I 147 00:08:11,840 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: do not think that that is beyond the capabilities of 148 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 1: the Miami Heat organization and beyond the capabilities of Eric Spoelstra. 149 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,000 Speaker 1: I've said this before, but I view the Miami Heat 150 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:25,160 Speaker 1: as Warriors East. I think that they maximize their talent 151 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,440 Speaker 1: better than anybody in the Eastern Conference. I think Eric 152 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:31,680 Speaker 1: Spoelstra is the best coach in the Eastern Conference, I think, 153 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 1: and in terms of taking what they get and getting 154 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:37,640 Speaker 1: the absolute most out of it, they are the best 155 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:41,559 Speaker 1: at that. So maybe they'll be able to maximize that. However, 156 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 1: they do have legitimate talent deficiencies, and we will get 157 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 1: into that as we get further into this show. So, 158 00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 1: looking at the depth chart, at the guard position, they 159 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: have Kyle Lowry, Victor Oladipo, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent and 160 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:56,840 Speaker 1: Max s Truce. Although Max Rus is big and strong 161 00:08:56,960 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 1: enough to guard wings. On the wing, they have Jimmy Butler, 162 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: Duncan Robinson, Tyler Harrow and Nikola Jovich. I'm calling him 163 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:05,439 Speaker 1: a wing because I don't think he'll be able to 164 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: guard Biggs. And the general rule of thumb in basketball 165 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 1: is your position is who you can guard, not what 166 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,679 Speaker 1: you do on the offensive end of the floor. Um, Big, 167 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: bam At a Bio, and Dwayne Dedman. They also have 168 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:19,840 Speaker 1: Omer your seven and Orlando Robinson, but I don't view 169 00:09:19,880 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 1: either of them as impactful players. Your seven will probably 170 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:26,360 Speaker 1: have to play quite a bit if with the loss 171 00:09:26,360 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: of p J. Tucker, They're probably gonna have to go 172 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:30,440 Speaker 1: bigger than they're used to going. But at the end 173 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 1: of the day, this is a team that's gonna go 174 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 1: down with bam At a Bio at the five, and 175 00:09:34,360 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: none of those other guys are gonna play. So this 176 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: is a team that is a little bit thin at 177 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 1: the forward position, especially with size and strength. With the 178 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 1: loss of p J. Tucker. My guess is at some 179 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,080 Speaker 1: point during this regular season, either in the buy out 180 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:49,439 Speaker 1: market or in the trade market, they will attempt to 181 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:52,679 Speaker 1: address that shortcoming. UM. Looking at the offensive end of 182 00:09:52,679 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: the four, Miami runs an incredibly diverse said of offensive sets. UM. 183 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,559 Speaker 1: I think they're the most diverse offense in the Eastern 184 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 1: Conference by organization, just in terms of the the just 185 00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: the deep repertoire of things that they run. They run 186 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 1: a ton of like Denver Nuggets esque drible handoff stuff 187 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:15,040 Speaker 1: um with bam at a bio operating out of the 188 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: high post on top of the key uh. General idea 189 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 1: there is guards are coming over the top and getting 190 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,840 Speaker 1: handoffs from bam at a bio. Guys are gonna have 191 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:25,959 Speaker 1: to chase over the top because of the shooting ability 192 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:29,199 Speaker 1: that allows them to get downhill. If bam Ata bios 193 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,719 Speaker 1: man drops back to help on those drives, he can 194 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 1: turn and face and now he has an advantage, so 195 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 1: they can get a lot of stuff out of that. 196 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 1: They do a lot of like four high sets. We 197 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 1: went over this yesterday when when we were talking about Memphis, 198 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 1: But four high sets you have to two players at 199 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:46,880 Speaker 1: the the high post and you have two players on 200 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: the extended wing, and then they run a lot of 201 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:51,079 Speaker 1: flex cuts out of that. So they'll have the guy 202 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: at the high post run over and set a screen 203 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,839 Speaker 1: or sometimes just stay and then that wing will cut 204 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:58,719 Speaker 1: off of that downhill to get into the paint. They 205 00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 1: do that a lot with screening actions involving Kyle Lowry 206 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 1: and Jimmy Butler because both of them screen really well 207 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: and they're usually guarded by different positions, which allows one 208 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 1: of them to get switches in a lot of cases. 209 00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 1: They also do a lot of clearing the side for 210 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 1: BAM and Jimmy to run pick and roll pretty simple 211 00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:19,080 Speaker 1: shooter at the top of the key shooter on the 212 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 1: wing shooter in the left corner. Then they'll put Jimmy 213 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:24,439 Speaker 1: on the right side of the floor with Bam run 214 00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:27,199 Speaker 1: pick and roll, it almost always results in a switch, 215 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 1: and then the two of them frequently go into post 216 00:11:29,960 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 1: ups from there. They do run a considerable amount of 217 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: of post ups with Bam at a bio and Jimmy Butler, 218 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,160 Speaker 1: and then um a lot of mismatch attacking and isolation, 219 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 1: specifically with Jimmy Butler. They do not run a lot 220 00:11:42,960 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: of isolations as a team, but Jimmy Butler himself still 221 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: runs quite a bit, especially attacking mismatches. Didn't have a 222 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 1: great season with that in the regular season last year, 223 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: but as you guys saw in the Saw in the postseason, 224 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:58,120 Speaker 1: he always takes it up a level and can generate 225 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 1: great stuff out of that. The majority of their offense 226 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:06,679 Speaker 1: is dribble, handoffs, and off screen actions. The main reason 227 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 1: for this is they lack legitimate shot creation. Outside of 228 00:12:12,120 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler, they don't have another player on the team 229 00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 1: that can consistently create his own shot. They have guys 230 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:22,440 Speaker 1: that do okay in specific matchups, and we'll put up 231 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:26,000 Speaker 1: decent efficiency numbers on really low volume because they're picky 232 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 1: about it. But in terms of volume, the only player 233 00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:33,680 Speaker 1: that isolates and does it well and frequently is Jimmy Butler. 234 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 1: Because of that, they can't run an offense that is 235 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: primarily predicated on attacking matchups. They have to run sets 236 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 1: to get their guys in advantage. A lot of the 237 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:46,360 Speaker 1: guys on the roster, Kyle Lowry, even Max s trus Gave, 238 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:50,199 Speaker 1: gave Vincent, Tyler, Tyler Harrow, these are all guys that 239 00:12:50,280 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 1: can attack with an advantage. They're good advantage extenders, they're 240 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:58,559 Speaker 1: good play finishers, but they're not guys that create that 241 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 1: initial advantage. It's a big part of why, in spite 242 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,120 Speaker 1: of the fact that they're so well coached, in spite 243 00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 1: of the fact that their player development is so good, 244 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: that they were the twelve best offense in the league 245 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:11,800 Speaker 1: last year, their half court offense ended up being disastrous 246 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 1: for them against Boston, and it was something they had 247 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 1: to overcome throughout that throughout that specific series. One of 248 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 1: the big reasons why that Boston series dragged out as 249 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: long as it did to seven games was Boston running 250 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: that stupid ass drop coverage that I was criticizing them 251 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: for the entire playoff run. It nearly got them beat 252 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:32,600 Speaker 1: against Miami, and it did get them beat against Golden State. 253 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 1: I thought it was email Judoka's biggest mistake of that 254 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 1: playoff run. But by by running that drop coverage, it 255 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 1: allowed Miami's weakness, which is shot creation, to go unchallenged. 256 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: And and that was why that series extended the way 257 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 1: that it did. UM There, in dribble handoff situations, they 258 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:51,080 Speaker 1: were second in frequency in the league, so they ran 259 00:13:51,120 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: the second most drible handoffs out of anybody in the NBA, 260 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 1: and they were fourth inefficiency. So when you let them 261 00:13:57,080 --> 00:13:59,360 Speaker 1: get to their dribble handoff offense, that you will score 262 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: pretty well. That's why switching is the best defense to 263 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:05,719 Speaker 1: run against the Miami offense. UM It gives advantages to 264 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 1: players that struggle to create advantages. Duncan uh Duncan Robinson, 265 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:14,160 Speaker 1: Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent and Jay uh and Jimmy Butler 266 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 1: were all in the seventie percentile or better in dribble 267 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:20,400 Speaker 1: handoff situations, so they all did really well. Tyler Harrow 268 00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 1: was surprisingly inefficient, We're gonna get to that later on 269 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 1: in the show. And their off screen offense that was all. 270 00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: They were also the third most frequent off screen offense 271 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 1: in the entire league. They were ninth in post up frequency, 272 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 1: eleventh in post up efficiency. Like I said, when they 273 00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 1: would clear the side for Jimmy Butler and Bam at 274 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 1: a bio, nine times out of ten it would result 275 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 1: in a switch and they'd pull the ball out and 276 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 1: whichever player they thought had a better matchup would take 277 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:47,960 Speaker 1: them down to the block. And that was where they 278 00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: were getting that type of offense. Jimmy and Bam combined 279 00:14:51,240 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 1: for five and a half post ups per game and 280 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 1: scored at about one point per possession, which is really 281 00:14:56,240 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 1: good for post ups. Football season is underway, so now 282 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: is the perfect time to download FanDuel America's number one 283 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,560 Speaker 1: sports book because right now new customers get a no 284 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 1: sweat first bet up to one thousand dollars. That's free 285 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 1: bets back. If your first bet doesn't win. Just sign 286 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: up with promo code Jason T. There are two bets 287 00:15:16,640 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 1: that I really like this weekend. I really like the 288 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: Saints at home against the Buccaneers, their two and a 289 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:25,880 Speaker 1: half point underdogs. They've always had the Buccaneers number, especially 290 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:28,160 Speaker 1: at home. I think that's a game they're going to win. 291 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 1: And then I know I said I was going to 292 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 1: fade the Dallas Cowboys all season, and yes, the Dak 293 00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: Prescott injury does not look promising, but seven and a 294 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: half is a huge line. So I will be on 295 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 1: the Dallas Cowboys plus seven and a half this week 296 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 1: against the Cincinnati Bengals. Vanduel is my favorite sports book app. 297 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 1: It's safe, it's easy to use, it's easy to get 298 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: your money out, and I really like that cash out 299 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 1: feature giving you the ability to take the winnings from 300 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: your bet at a slight discount, just so that you 301 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 1: avoid any sort of shenanigans that could happen in garbage time. 302 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:01,440 Speaker 1: It's one of my favorit features. So sign up today 303 00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 1: with promo code Jason T for your no sweat first 304 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: pet Make every moment more this season with FanDuel, the 305 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: official sports book partner of the NFL um they were 306 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: tent in ISO efficiency, but their volume was incredibly low. 307 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 1: They only ran about six isolations per game, including six 308 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 1: point one in the postseason. To give you some perspective, 309 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 1: the Raptors, the Wolves, the Nets, the Bucks, the MAVs, 310 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:27,360 Speaker 1: and the Sixers all ran at least ten or more 311 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: isolations per game, some of them more than fifteen. So 312 00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:34,240 Speaker 1: that they're an extremely low volume isolation team because they're 313 00:16:34,240 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 1: picky about when they do it, but they were relatively 314 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 1: efficient slightly above average when they did so. They also 315 00:16:40,360 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 1: pushed the ball in transition selectively. They were very efficient 316 00:16:43,640 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 1: transition team. They just didn't do it often. They were 317 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 1: one of the slowest paced teams in the league. Some 318 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: of that's to be expected because of the age of 319 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 1: their roster and athleticism is not necessarily a strength. They 320 00:16:54,360 --> 00:16:57,520 Speaker 1: do have great athletes on the team, guys like Jimmy 321 00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 1: Butler in bam At a bio but intend that like 322 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler is a little older, he's a little bit 323 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,160 Speaker 1: more of a strangle the pace type of forward, which 324 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: I actually like. I like. I prefer to strangle the 325 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 1: pace because I think it throws other teams out of rhythm. 326 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 1: But what Miami does really well, especially with their defense, 327 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:18,360 Speaker 1: by being forwardly aggressive, by playing passing lanes and being 328 00:17:18,359 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 1: aggressive on ball handlers. It for it forces turnovers that 329 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: allow you to push the ball in transition. They were 330 00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 1: twenty two and transition attempts, but six and transition efficiency. 331 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 1: That's how it manifests when you're picky about when you're 332 00:17:32,600 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 1: when you run, when you run when you have an 333 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:37,119 Speaker 1: advantage rather than just running for the sake of running. 334 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:39,960 Speaker 1: They were only an okay pick and roll team low 335 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,560 Speaker 1: and volume lowan efficiency. That's that's one of the biggest 336 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: reasons why. And as we zoom out from them on 337 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 1: the offensive end of the floor, and only pat Riley 338 00:17:50,600 --> 00:17:54,120 Speaker 1: knows what he offered, and only Danny Ainge knows whether 339 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:56,919 Speaker 1: or not he was really willing to consider it. But 340 00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,160 Speaker 1: I was really surprised that Miami didn't go more. We're 341 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,840 Speaker 1: all in for Donovan Mitchell. He was a specific type 342 00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:05,320 Speaker 1: of player that I thought would have been a really 343 00:18:05,320 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 1: good fit for them because of BAM's offensive versatility and 344 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,359 Speaker 1: what he could do as a ball screener. We talked 345 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 1: a lot about this when we were doing the uh um, 346 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 1: the Utah Jazz stuff, excuse me, the Donovi Donovan Mitchell 347 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 1: trade stuff in the in the Cleveland Cavalier stuff. Donovan 348 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 1: Mitchell is one of the best volume pick and role 349 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 1: players in all of basketball. That would have been a 350 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 1: really interesting dynamic to add to this team. He also 351 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:31,679 Speaker 1: did really well in isolation, so like it was kind 352 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: of a no brainer to fix a very specific need 353 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:38,719 Speaker 1: on this roster. In addition to that, like, Donovan Mitchell's 354 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:42,120 Speaker 1: biggest weakness is defense, is defense right now, right, And 355 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 1: the Miami Heat a kind of famous for pulling the 356 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 1: best out of each other in that regard, and so 357 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:49,439 Speaker 1: I thought it was it was it was the perfect 358 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 1: type of player for them to go after, a player 359 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,639 Speaker 1: that I thought was somewhat achievable, and it just didn't 360 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:58,440 Speaker 1: pan out. And again, like only pat Riley knows how 361 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,920 Speaker 1: close he came to actually pulling that off, or whether 362 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:02,840 Speaker 1: it was something that he was passive about or not. 363 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 1: I know there are lots of complications as it comes 364 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:06,800 Speaker 1: to the c b A for that kind of thing too, 365 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 1: But that would have been a player that I really 366 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,920 Speaker 1: would have liked to see with Miami moving on to 367 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 1: the defensive end of the floor. So they are a very, 368 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: very switch heavy team. Um, this is to be expected. 369 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,679 Speaker 1: I've talked a lot about modern basketball, and if you 370 00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:23,920 Speaker 1: guys have heard me talk about this, I've I've discussed that, 371 00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 1: in my opinion, the most effective modern offense strategy is 372 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 1: five out because of how difficult it is to cover 373 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:34,280 Speaker 1: ground in space in the improved ball handling, shooting and 374 00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: decision making around the league, if you can really spread 375 00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: a team and make them make multiple defensive rotations, you 376 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 1: can get great stuff out of it. That's something I 377 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 1: believe very strongly in. On the defensive end of the floor, 378 00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 1: I think that the best strategy is switching. We talked 379 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,280 Speaker 1: a lot about this. There there's pros and cons to it. 380 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: You the downsides are as you tend to give up 381 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 1: rebounding mismatches, you tend to give up isolation mismatches. There 382 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 1: are downsides. Guys will make shots over the top, guys 383 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: will get offensive rebound putbacks. But the flip side of 384 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:09,880 Speaker 1: that is it requires a great deal of communication and 385 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: if as long as you communicate well, it takes away 386 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:17,480 Speaker 1: physical exertion. It's hard physically to fight over the top. 387 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 1: Of the screens, you get beat up, especially over the 388 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 1: course of a series, even great chase over the top 389 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 1: of screen teams, teams like Boston were eventually dying on 390 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: screens because it's just really hard to do. It wears 391 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: on you physically. It changes the exertion to something mental. 392 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:34,959 Speaker 1: So as long as you're focused and as long as 393 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 1: you've put in the rep UH the amount of reps 394 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: in practice, you can get good at switching so that 395 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 1: you don't have to exert yourself physically. You just are 396 00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: paying attention in terms of UH, in terms of mental exertion. 397 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 1: And then most importantly, it stagnates the opponent when you 398 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 1: switch actions. It neutralizes offensive sets. Especially again, like we said, 399 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:00,680 Speaker 1: if you do it right and you do it well, 400 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,199 Speaker 1: as soon as you neutralize offensive sets, as soon as 401 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:08,719 Speaker 1: you neutralize pick and rolls, it turns teams into isolation teams. 402 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:12,000 Speaker 1: You know, in that first round series against Atlanta for instance, 403 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,280 Speaker 1: and you Miami Heat fans probably remember this very well. 404 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 1: Almost from the opening UH tip there was Trey Young 405 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 1: just didn't know what to do. He's coming off these 406 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:23,840 Speaker 1: ball screens and instead of switching, Bamata Bio is just 407 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 1: running out on him, and when he runs out on him, 408 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 1: all of a sudden, he's just kind of looking around like, Okay, 409 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:31,920 Speaker 1: what am I gonna do? I slate bam outa Bio 410 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,439 Speaker 1: like I'm not gonna get around him. I'm gonna shoot 411 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 1: a crazy step back three and and it turned Atlanta's 412 00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 1: offense into the mud and slowed them down. They lost 413 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,320 Speaker 1: their rhythm and they really fell apart, and Trey Young 414 00:21:44,320 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 1: had a nightmare series. I am a huge believer in 415 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:49,920 Speaker 1: switching and now there are a couple of different things. 416 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: You need to have the right personnel right like Bamata 417 00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:56,199 Speaker 1: Bio and we're gonna talk about this a little bit 418 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 1: more later. He's one of the best switching bigs in 419 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 1: all of basketball. Personnel helps their guards. Guys like Max 420 00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:07,040 Speaker 1: Struss and Kyle Lowry can guard up a position like 421 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 1: they're not gonna get bullied by big forwards, at least 422 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: not very easily. So that helps. So you gotta have 423 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,800 Speaker 1: the right personnel, and you also have to do it well. 424 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: Like we talked a lot about schemes on the show. 425 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:22,840 Speaker 1: Different offensive sets, you know, h uh, floor spacing, different 426 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,199 Speaker 1: pick and roll concepts, and then on the defensive end 427 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:26,919 Speaker 1: of the form. We talked about different pick and roll coverages, 428 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 1: different defensive concepts. None of that matters if you don't 429 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:35,479 Speaker 1: do it well. A switching defense that is run like 430 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,960 Speaker 1: shit isn't gonna get stops. You know. Like if you 431 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:42,200 Speaker 1: have really good spacing in terms of where your players 432 00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,119 Speaker 1: are positioned on the floor, but none of them can 433 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 1: shoot and dribble, then you don't really have spacing, you 434 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,399 Speaker 1: know what I mean. So, like execution is also a 435 00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 1: big part of it. But I do think that switching 436 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,920 Speaker 1: is the best modern defensive concept, and I think it's 437 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,199 Speaker 1: really interesting and smart that pat Riley has built the 438 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:02,240 Speaker 1: roster in a man inner that makes them capable of 439 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,960 Speaker 1: running that type of defensive scheme. And it's their head coach, 440 00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 1: who's very forward thinking and ahead of the times, who's 441 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 1: leaning very strongly into that defensive concept. You know, Still, 442 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 1: to this day, even with that successful switching as ben, 443 00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,160 Speaker 1: even with what the Houston Rockets in two thousand eighteen 444 00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,680 Speaker 1: did to the most talented roster ever in the Golden 445 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 1: State Warriors in the Conference finals by switching everything, even 446 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,439 Speaker 1: with all of that, teams are still slow to adopt it. 447 00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,880 Speaker 1: And the main reason why is drop coverage is just easier. 448 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 1: It's easier on your bigs, it's easier to use in 449 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:42,239 Speaker 1: the regular season. It's an innings eater. It's airring on 450 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 1: the side of protecting the paint and giving up pull 451 00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 1: up jump shooting. It's just the easy way out. And 452 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,000 Speaker 1: kudos to the Miami Heat and to Rik Spoelshred pat 453 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 1: Riley and everybody on that roster for being more willing 454 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,800 Speaker 1: to do the more difficult job because it translates better 455 00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 1: to playoff success. And again all comes down to why 456 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:05,680 Speaker 1: Miami is so much better at maximizing their talent than 457 00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:08,480 Speaker 1: the other teams in the league. Um, but again, they're 458 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 1: one of the the more switch heavy teams in the league, 459 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: even in pick and roll. Um bamad Bio, like I 460 00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:15,840 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier, he's the guy who unlocks all of that. 461 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:20,400 Speaker 1: He's not quite as gifted as a rim protector as 462 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:24,680 Speaker 1: like an Anthony Davis or as a you know, Rudy Gobert, 463 00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 1: Jana Santana Coumpo, but he's actually better than all three 464 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 1: of those guys switching out onto the perimeter. He's more 465 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 1: mobile and just has better instincts on how to move 466 00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:38,040 Speaker 1: his feet against the perimeter. Player. That kind of makes 467 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:42,360 Speaker 1: him into the ultimate switching forward because he can functionally 468 00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,159 Speaker 1: play rim protector while also playing the role in a 469 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:50,399 Speaker 1: five out switching scheme. He unlocks everything that they do defensively, 470 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,480 Speaker 1: and it's why bam At a Bio is as effective 471 00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:57,960 Speaker 1: a basketball player as he is. Um the Mighty Heat 472 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,520 Speaker 1: are are big on FOURD aggression picking up ball handlers, 473 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,719 Speaker 1: you know, sooner than other teams are willing to, at 474 00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:09,159 Speaker 1: least when they cross half court in many situations in 475 00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 1: full court scenarios. Uh, it's it seems to me that 476 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:16,159 Speaker 1: Sposter seems to prefer kind of attacking as soon as 477 00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:19,399 Speaker 1: they cross half court because you can't use retreat dribbles 478 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:21,119 Speaker 1: at that point. They had a lot of success against 479 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 1: Boston with that. They were seventh in points off of 480 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 1: turnovers this year. That tells you all you need to know. 481 00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:30,679 Speaker 1: They understand that their weaknesses in the half court offensively, 482 00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,440 Speaker 1: and they use that as an opportunity to to understand 483 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: their weakness and push the advantage in transition as much 484 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:39,280 Speaker 1: as possible. We talked about that a lot with Memphis 485 00:25:39,359 --> 00:25:42,959 Speaker 1: yesterday as well. I'll give you an example. So in 486 00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 1: that Boston Celtics series, the Miami Heat got utterly obliterated 487 00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:51,359 Speaker 1: in the half court. They averaged zero point eight six 488 00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,639 Speaker 1: points per possession against Boston in the half court. On 489 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:56,119 Speaker 1: the other end of the floor, when they were in 490 00:25:56,119 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 1: the half court, defensively, Boston was getting zero point seven 491 00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 1: points per possession in the half court. That's the equivalent 492 00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,720 Speaker 1: to a plus eleven net rating if the game stayed 493 00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 1: in the half court. That's dominant. That would in most 494 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 1: seasons be the best net rating and all of basketball 495 00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:15,440 Speaker 1: in the aggregate for the whole season. So with as 496 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:19,639 Speaker 1: dominant as Boston was over Miami and the half court, 497 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,880 Speaker 1: how did that series drag to seven games? How did 498 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 1: they have a chance to win it at the end? 499 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,520 Speaker 1: They did it in transition. They had fifty eight steals 500 00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:32,680 Speaker 1: in that series, and they averaged one point three one 501 00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 1: points per possession pushing in transition office steals. So again, 502 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:42,920 Speaker 1: like there are many facets to basketball, and obviously the 503 00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 1: core facet is half court shot creation and half court defense, 504 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:49,119 Speaker 1: and it's very important for you to be good in 505 00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 1: those areas, but there are all these other ancillary parts 506 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:54,320 Speaker 1: of the game of basketball that you need to be 507 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 1: great at, whether that's you know, taking care of the 508 00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,639 Speaker 1: basketball voting turnovers. Take a look at the Boss and Celtics, 509 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:06,679 Speaker 1: whether that's squeezing out fringe possessions, offensive rebounds, pushing in transition, 510 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 1: the reverse to that on defense securing defensive rebounds transition defense. 511 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 1: Boston was a great half court defense, they were a 512 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 1: horrific transition defense because they would frequently fall down and 513 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,280 Speaker 1: beg for foul calls on the other end of the 514 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 1: floor rather than prioritizing getting back in transition. It's kind 515 00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 1: of like special teams in football, or like manufacturing runs 516 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:31,199 Speaker 1: in baseball by stealing bases and sacrifice bunds, sacrifice flies, 517 00:27:31,240 --> 00:27:34,160 Speaker 1: things along those lines. You know, in the core facets 518 00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 1: of the game, winning is part of it, but there 519 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,919 Speaker 1: are a lot of other elements to the game, and 520 00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,239 Speaker 1: the best teams are always the teams that maximize the 521 00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:45,160 Speaker 1: fringe elements of the game. In Miami as a team 522 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:50,040 Speaker 1: that has always maximized those fringe elements, last thing I 523 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:51,640 Speaker 1: wanted to say about the defensive end of the floor 524 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 1: with Miami is uh, the defensive adjustments and the power 525 00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 1: that Eric Spoelster has in a playoff series to win 526 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 1: in the chess match, So I'll give you just two examples. 527 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 1: Uh and and this is a big part of why 528 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:08,439 Speaker 1: they have such a high playoff upside. Um. Boston is 529 00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,920 Speaker 1: a week ball handling team, as we all know. As 530 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 1: that series progressed, um Eric Spoelstra was more intent on 531 00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 1: pressuring the basketball and gambling more, even if at the 532 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,640 Speaker 1: risk of getting out of position and giving up baskets. 533 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 1: On the other end, I thought it was a really 534 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:31,040 Speaker 1: smart adjustment from Marik Spoelstra because it actually caused Boston 535 00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,639 Speaker 1: to lose their head for extended stretches in that series, 536 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,800 Speaker 1: and it's a huge part of why it extended as 537 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 1: long as it did. That was an adjustment for Marik Spoelstra. 538 00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:45,200 Speaker 1: Look at the Philadelphia seventy series. Joel Embiid. They didn't 539 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 1: have anybody who could really guard him straight up, not 540 00:28:47,120 --> 00:28:49,480 Speaker 1: even beam at a bio. He's too big, right. But 541 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:51,000 Speaker 1: one of the things they were doing that I thought 542 00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:55,040 Speaker 1: was really really smart was they were fronting Joel Embiid 543 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 1: and bringing backside help, and when they did, it made 544 00:28:59,080 --> 00:29:01,000 Speaker 1: it so that Philly just kind of passed the ball 545 00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 1: around the perimeter and didn't know how to get it 546 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 1: into em beat and that kind of site them beat out, 547 00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,400 Speaker 1: and don't get me wrong, injuries played a role. He 548 00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,360 Speaker 1: ended up getting hurt in that series or in it 549 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:14,960 Speaker 1: might have been the previous series. It was, Yeah, he 550 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 1: got hurt in the previous series against Toronto, but I 551 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,160 Speaker 1: know his head wasn't a percent in it because of 552 00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,520 Speaker 1: the orble fracture or whatever. But I also think that 553 00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 1: Eric Spelser did a really nice job of finding out 554 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 1: how to frustrate Joel Embiid through bal denial, and it 555 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 1: was a really really smart scheme he used to do. So. 556 00:29:31,480 --> 00:29:35,760 Speaker 1: Fronting the post is difficult. It's a very physically taxing job, 557 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 1: and it also requires really sound rotations on the back 558 00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 1: end because you're obviously giving up the over the top 559 00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 1: lob pass and when you're offering help on the backside, 560 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 1: it also opens up the skip pass. But their rotations 561 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 1: were so sound around that that it did a pretty 562 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 1: damn good job of disrupting Phillies offense, and towards the 563 00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 1: end of the series it kind of came down to 564 00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,880 Speaker 1: James Harden his ability to create shots, which obviously he 565 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,200 Speaker 1: wasn't able to do so credit to Erik Spoelstra. That's 566 00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:08,760 Speaker 1: a huge wild card for them. In any playoff series 567 00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,120 Speaker 1: is that he's usually the smartest guy on the bench 568 00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:14,920 Speaker 1: on both benches, and his ability to make those adjustments 569 00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:18,240 Speaker 1: and make other teams feel uncomfortable as a huge weapon 570 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,680 Speaker 1: in Miami's in Miami's toolbox. So moving on to the 571 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 1: best case scenarios, and before we do that, I kind 572 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,200 Speaker 1: of want to summarize really really quick. This is an 573 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 1: excellent defensive team that is built for playoff basketball. They 574 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:35,360 Speaker 1: are stout on the perimeter. You know, Max rus and 575 00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,000 Speaker 1: Kyle Lowry are strong and can guard up a position, 576 00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 1: and then Bam has position flexibility to switch out of 577 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 1: the center position. So as a team, they're constructed for 578 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:50,200 Speaker 1: playoff defense and especially with switching, that's great. Offensively, they 579 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 1: maximize their talent with lots of scheme diversity. They run 580 00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,760 Speaker 1: tons of different sets. They are not repetitive, they're not predictable. 581 00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 1: They're very good at creating advantage is for their guards, 582 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,840 Speaker 1: who are bad at creating advantages for themselves. But this 583 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:08,320 Speaker 1: is a weak ball handling team that struggles to create 584 00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 1: advantages against defense that can get ahead of their sets, 585 00:31:12,000 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 1: especially when teams don't run drop coverage against them and 586 00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:18,120 Speaker 1: are willing to switch it forces them to rely on 587 00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 1: shock creation, and it's not a strength of theirs. The 588 00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:25,760 Speaker 1: only superpower they have that can overcome this is Jimmy 589 00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,040 Speaker 1: Butler and his ability to play above and beyond even 590 00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 1: his own capability in a playoff setting. He this is 591 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 1: why I thought they needed Donovan Mitchell. This is why 592 00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 1: I thought they should have been more aggressive on that front. 593 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 1: But Jimmy Butler. Let's say they stay healthy with Eric 594 00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:44,880 Speaker 1: Boelscher and what he does to maximize them on the 595 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 1: offensive and defensive end of the floor. If Jimmy Butler 596 00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,760 Speaker 1: can play is to the to the highest end of 597 00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,280 Speaker 1: his capability like he did in that playoff front, they're 598 00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:58,240 Speaker 1: capable of beating anybody. All of these weaknesses I've described 599 00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:01,400 Speaker 1: were true last year too, and they came one shot 600 00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:03,760 Speaker 1: away from making it to the NBA Finals. Now, I 601 00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 1: think they would have lost soundly to Golden State, but 602 00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:11,920 Speaker 1: make no mistake like they absolutely have a puncher's chance 603 00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,240 Speaker 1: because of what Jimmy Butler is capable of. He has 604 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,400 Speaker 1: demonstrated that that will always put them in this mix. 605 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 1: If they stay healthy and Jimmy Butler's stays healthy and 606 00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,400 Speaker 1: he gets hot, they can beat anybody. Therefore, they are 607 00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:26,080 Speaker 1: a contender end of story. For me, that is their 608 00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,440 Speaker 1: best case scenario, but their worst case scenario health can 609 00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,040 Speaker 1: rear it's ugly head again. Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowrty 610 00:32:32,120 --> 00:32:34,320 Speaker 1: both broke down towards the end of the season. They 611 00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:36,960 Speaker 1: were playing, but they were limited. Jimmy was in really 612 00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,680 Speaker 1: rough physical shape in the middle of that Boston Celtics series, 613 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,240 Speaker 1: and the loss of p J. Tucker makes them really 614 00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,800 Speaker 1: thin in the front court. Um, you're probably gonna have 615 00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,000 Speaker 1: to play Jimmy Butler a lot at the four now. 616 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,800 Speaker 1: I hope that they addressed that this off during the season, 617 00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:52,600 Speaker 1: either in the trade market or in the buying market 618 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,600 Speaker 1: by beating up that forward position. Otherwise, they need Nikola 619 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 1: Yovich to be ready or Jovic or Yovich, I'm not 620 00:32:57,880 --> 00:32:59,560 Speaker 1: sure how to pronounce it. They need him to be 621 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,560 Speaker 1: ready to lay and I'm just not sure that he's 622 00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:02,920 Speaker 1: going to be. And also I think he's a little 623 00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,640 Speaker 1: too thin to be able to guard bigger forwards in 624 00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:08,600 Speaker 1: the league. This team is with their lack of depth, 625 00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 1: they are one severe injury away from basically being a 626 00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,840 Speaker 1: first round exit, or worse, like if Kyle Lowry gets hurt, 627 00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:20,800 Speaker 1: it greatly limits their perimeter size and switch ability. Same 628 00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:23,560 Speaker 1: goes for Jimmy Butler, same goes for Bamata Bio. They're 629 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 1: just kind of heavily exposed on that front. I don't 630 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,200 Speaker 1: think they can weather an injury. That to me, has 631 00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,880 Speaker 1: moved them down the list. The biggest X factor on 632 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 1: this team is Tyler Harrow. The Miami Heat desperately need 633 00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:40,800 Speaker 1: him to take a significant leap as a shot creator. Now. 634 00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:42,960 Speaker 1: I know when you look at the numbers and Miami 635 00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,280 Speaker 1: Heat fans are gonna want to say this, Hey, he 636 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 1: averaged twenty one points per game last year on fifty 637 00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:52,240 Speaker 1: true shooting. How is that not a legitimate shot creator? Well, 638 00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,440 Speaker 1: you have to dig deeper into it. The vast majority 639 00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 1: of Tyler Harrow's offensive success came in spot up situations. 640 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,880 Speaker 1: He is amazing attacking closeouts, one of the very best 641 00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:05,480 Speaker 1: in the league. Why because he's a knockdown three point 642 00:34:05,560 --> 00:34:08,880 Speaker 1: shooter and he's very good at continuing that advantage into 643 00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:10,920 Speaker 1: the lane. Because he could shoot a pull up fifteen footer, 644 00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,360 Speaker 1: he could shoot floaters in the lane, and he's athletic 645 00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:14,960 Speaker 1: enough to get all the way to the rim right 646 00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:17,560 Speaker 1: so in spot up situations, he's one of the very 647 00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:23,040 Speaker 1: best in the league. He was in the percentile for 648 00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:26,240 Speaker 1: spot up possessions out of all NBA players. That's excellent. 649 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:30,160 Speaker 1: He averaged one point to three points per spot up possession. 650 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:34,000 Speaker 1: That's freaking incredible. That's where he succelled. But he was 651 00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:38,360 Speaker 1: either average to below average in everything else. Below average 652 00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:42,040 Speaker 1: in isolations, you know, average to below average in dribble handoffs, 653 00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,320 Speaker 1: average to below average coming off the screens. In any 654 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,480 Speaker 1: situation where they were actually running plays for him, he 655 00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,520 Speaker 1: wasn't producing at a high level. The vast majority of 656 00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:55,080 Speaker 1: his offensive creation that was efficient was coming out of 657 00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:59,759 Speaker 1: spot up situations. The scoring production is unassailable, but in 658 00:34:59,840 --> 00:35:01,800 Speaker 1: ord her for this team to have a real playoff 659 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,560 Speaker 1: ceiling that can contend with the Boston's and the Golden 660 00:35:05,600 --> 00:35:07,880 Speaker 1: States and the Clippers and the Bucks of the world, 661 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,080 Speaker 1: they need Tyler Harrow to get to the point where 662 00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:14,080 Speaker 1: he can create his own shot. They also need him 663 00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:15,920 Speaker 1: to be able to stay on the floor defensively. He's 664 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,759 Speaker 1: a little bit more of a defensive liability right now 665 00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,160 Speaker 1: than the Miami Heat would like for him to be. So, 666 00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,520 Speaker 1: from that standpoint, if this team desperately needs a high 667 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,480 Speaker 1: level shot creator, and they desperately need a high level 668 00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,880 Speaker 1: shot creator creator that can stay on the floor. Tyler 669 00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,400 Speaker 1: Harrow is the answer to that question. But he's only 670 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:34,680 Speaker 1: gonna be able to stay on the floor if he 671 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:36,680 Speaker 1: can defend. And he only could be a high level 672 00:35:36,719 --> 00:35:39,080 Speaker 1: shot creator if he learns how to succeed out of 673 00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:43,520 Speaker 1: one of those situations office screens, driple handoffs, isolations. He 674 00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,120 Speaker 1: needs to get to the point where he can create 675 00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,279 Speaker 1: his own shot. All right, guys, that is all I 676 00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,839 Speaker 1: have for today. We will be back tomorrow with number nine. 677 00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:52,520 Speaker 1: As always, I sincerely appreciate your support and we'll see 678 00:35:52,520 --> 00:36:46,160 Speaker 1: you next time. And the volume