1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:04,880 Speaker 1: Hey everyone, I'm Pat Fitzforis, managing editor of Fantasy Pros 2 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: and Betting Pros, and I'm going to run through my 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:11,760 Speaker 1: favorite Week fourteen NFL player props. All right, let's get 4 00:00:11,800 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: to Week fourteen and the props. There's a limited menu 5 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 1: this week. Six teams one buy another bipocalypse for us here, 6 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:21,920 Speaker 1: So that's okay. We don't need a cheesecake factory sized 7 00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,920 Speaker 1: menu every week. We'll make do with this smaller slate. 8 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 1: And by the way, we've been pretty hot lately last three, 9 00:00:30,240 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 1: last two weeks eleven and three. So yeah, after stumbling 10 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: around for some of the earlier part of the season 11 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: and struggling to stay ahead of the juice, we've been 12 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: doing okay lately. So let's see if we can keep 13 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:45,599 Speaker 1: the momentum going. And we're going to start with some 14 00:00:45,720 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: passing props. I like Josh Allen under two hundred and 15 00:00:50,400 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: fifty six point five passing yards this week against the Jets. 16 00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:56,800 Speaker 1: No betting the under on Josh Allen passing yardage does 17 00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:00,840 Speaker 1: not necessarily feel good, but Alan has falling short of 18 00:01:00,840 --> 00:01:03,800 Speaker 1: this number in three straight games and five of his 19 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 1: last six, and he's got a really tough matchup with 20 00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 1: the Jets, one of the best passing defenses in the league. 21 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 1: Jets are giving up just one hundred and ninety four 22 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 1: point three passing yards per game and five point eight 23 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: yards per pass attempt. Both of those marks are the 24 00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 1: fourth best in the league, and in an earlier meeting 25 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:26,399 Speaker 1: with the Jets this season back in Week nine, Allen 26 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: completed eighteen of thirty four passes for two hundred and 27 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:33,480 Speaker 1: five passing yards with no touchdowns in two interceptions. He 28 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: averaged just six point zero three yards per attempt that game, 29 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 1: and in fact, over the last five games, Josh Allen 30 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 1: has averaged no better than seven point six seven yards 31 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,160 Speaker 1: per pass attempt in any games. He has not been 32 00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: hyper efficient lately. Last thing to mention the forecast in 33 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: Buffalo for this Sunday, as you might expect, not great 34 00:01:55,800 --> 00:01:59,640 Speaker 1: weather in Buffalo in December calling from mix of rain 35 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: and snow. Not necessarily going to be any sort of 36 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: weather wipeout for the quarterbacks in this one, but passing 37 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:10,079 Speaker 1: conditions could be suboptimal. I like Josh Allen under two 38 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:12,919 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty six point five passing yards. I also 39 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:17,080 Speaker 1: like Joe Burrow over two hundred and seventy eight point 40 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 1: five passing yards. Yes, that's kind of a high bar 41 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: to clear, but Burrow has been absolutely lethal at home 42 00:02:23,400 --> 00:02:27,519 Speaker 1: this season. In Cincinnati's pay Corps Stadium. He has topped 43 00:02:27,560 --> 00:02:30,160 Speaker 1: this number two hundred and seventy eight point five passing 44 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:34,040 Speaker 1: yards in four of five home games this year, averaging 45 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 1: three hundred and nineteen point six passing yards in those 46 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: five home games. And he's going against the Browns this week. 47 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:46,520 Speaker 1: When these two teams last played, the Browns embarrassed the 48 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:50,359 Speaker 1: Bengals thirty two to thirteen on Halloween Nights. You might 49 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: remember that it was a Monday night home game and 50 00:02:52,919 --> 00:02:55,880 Speaker 1: the Bengals could not get much cooking on offense. Burrow 51 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 1: threw for only two hundred and thirty two yards in 52 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:01,679 Speaker 1: that game, but he was of without Jamar Chase, who 53 00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 1: was still dealing with a hip injury. Chase is now back, 54 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: giving Burrow a full compliment of wide receivers. It's Chase, 55 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,519 Speaker 1: it's t Higgins, it's Tyler Boyd. The Browns, meanwhile, could 56 00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 1: be without cornerback Denzel Ward, who has been dealing with 57 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:18,160 Speaker 1: an illness and an ankle injury. So I like Burrow 58 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: over two hundred and seventy eight point five passing yards. 59 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: One more passing prop. Yes, six player props and three 60 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:29,840 Speaker 1: of them are pertaining the passing yardage this week, and 61 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 1: this might be my favorite of all. Deshaun Watson under 62 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 1: two hundred and twenty five point five passing yards. There 63 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: was a thick coat of rust on Deshaun Watson last 64 00:03:40,520 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 1: week in his first game back from suspension, and it 65 00:03:44,600 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 1: was his first regular season action since January third, twenty 66 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: twenty one. That's twenty three months, almost two full years, 67 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,840 Speaker 1: so I guess the rust was somewhat understandable. Watson completed 68 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 1: twelve of twenty two passes against the for one hundred 69 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 1: and thirty one yards, with no touchdowns in one interception. 70 00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 1: His average depth of target on his throws in that 71 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 1: game was just six point three yards, and the Bills 72 00:04:12,560 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 1: had thirty eight rushing attempts versus twenty two passing attempts. Now, granted, 73 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:20,480 Speaker 1: seven of those runs were Deshaun Watson runs, so they 74 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 1: were some were dropbacks where he scrambled out, but needless 75 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: to say, the Browns approach was run heavy, and I 76 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,200 Speaker 1: think maybe they go run heavy again this week against 77 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 1: the Bengals. In an effort to lighten the load on 78 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,720 Speaker 1: their rusty quarterback. It kind of makes sense. Watson is 79 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,799 Speaker 1: up against a pretty good Bengals pass defense this week 80 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: that ranks tenth in Football Outsiders DVOA metric against the pass, 81 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 1: and they're also eleventh in pressure rate. It's a good defense. 82 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 1: Watson is rusty. I do not expect him to light 83 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: it up this week. I think he's could be under 84 00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 1: two hundred and twenty five point five passing yards. I 85 00:04:57,160 --> 00:05:00,479 Speaker 1: will get to my three remaining selections in just the moment, 86 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: but first, do you want to track all of your 87 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 1: wagers in one place. Check out the Betting prospicktracker at 88 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:13,280 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash pick hyphen tracking. It syncs up 89 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 1: with your sportsbooks to tally which picks hit and which 90 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 1: ones miss, and it gives you a live look at 91 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:20,719 Speaker 1: what the public is doing, so you can use real 92 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 1: time tracking to determine which place to make and which 93 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:26,720 Speaker 1: ones to fade. Get on the leaderboard and quickly become 94 00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:28,920 Speaker 1: a sharp by using the free advice we have to 95 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:34,240 Speaker 1: offer at bettingpros dot com slash Pick hyphen Tracking. All right, 96 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:36,760 Speaker 1: let's get to the last three player props for the week, 97 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley under seventy one point five rushing yards. If 98 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: you'll recall from last week, I was also on the 99 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:48,320 Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley under for rushing yardage last week it successfully hits. 100 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:51,120 Speaker 1: We're going back to the well again this week. The 101 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: Giants running game has been struggling for the last month, 102 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:57,320 Speaker 1: really like Barkley has failed to hit this number in 103 00:05:57,360 --> 00:06:00,480 Speaker 1: three consecutive games and in four of his last five. 104 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:05,280 Speaker 1: Since Week eight, Barkley is averaging three point three yards 105 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: per Carrie and he is a Week fourteen game against 106 00:06:08,440 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: the Eagles. And I'm not gonna say the Eagles are 107 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 1: great against the run. They've been averaged maybe slightly below 108 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:19,120 Speaker 1: average this season. But Philly did manage to hold Dereck Henry. 109 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 1: The Titans do everything running back last week to thirty 110 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 1: rushing yards on eleven attempts. I think Saquon Barkley is 111 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:30,960 Speaker 1: gonna be well under seventy one point five rushing yards 112 00:06:31,000 --> 00:06:33,640 Speaker 1: this week. All Right, that's a lot of unders so far. 113 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,480 Speaker 1: Three out of the four picks under so far. We 114 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 1: got to get some overs in here, so we'll start 115 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 1: with a Garrett Wilson over Garret Wilson over sixty one 116 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: point five receiving yards. This number is simply too low 117 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:51,039 Speaker 1: for an ascendant star, and Garrett Wilson just looks so good. 118 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 1: Wilson had five catches for ninety five yards and two 119 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: touchdowns against the Bears in Week twelve, and then he 120 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 1: sploded last week for eight catches and one hundred and 121 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 1: sixty two yards against the Vikings. In the five games 122 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:10,080 Speaker 1: this season where the Jets have started either Joe Flacco 123 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 1: or Mike White at quarterback, i e. Not Zack Wilson, 124 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: Garrett Wilson is averaging eleven point two targets in those 125 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: five games, six point two catches and ninety four point 126 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 1: two receiving yards put in anyone except Zach Wilson at 127 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 1: quarterback for the Jets, and Garrett Wilson is going to produce. 128 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 1: The Bills are the Jets opponents this week, and while 129 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 1: they would seem to be a difficult matchup, Buffalo has 130 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: given up the fourteenth most receiving yards to wide receivers 131 00:07:41,840 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 1: this season. Some more of a neutral matchup against wide receivers, 132 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: not one to fear. Garrett Wilson over sixty one point 133 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: five receiving yards and finally, Greg Dalcic, the rookie tight 134 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: end for the Broncos, over thirty nine point five receiving yards. 135 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 1: Dulcic just top this number four of the seven games 136 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: he's played this season. He's coming off a six catch 137 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 1: eighty five yard performance against the Ravens in which dulcach 138 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 1: had a thirty six point three percent target share. Now, 139 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 1: we saw Courtland Sutton leave that game early for the 140 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: Broncos with a hamstring injury, which perhaps contributed to Dull 141 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:24,760 Speaker 1: Dulcic's enhanced target share. Well, it looks like Sutton is 142 00:08:24,760 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 1: going to be out again this week. He's considered doubtful 143 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 1: with that hamstring injury, so that does enhance the target 144 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,880 Speaker 1: outlook for Dulctch yet again. And the matchup against the 145 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: Chiefs wouldn't seem especially appealing on the surface. Kansas City 146 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:40,959 Speaker 1: is just sort of middle of the pack in terms 147 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 1: of receiving yardage allowed to tight end, but the Chiefs 148 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: do sometimes give up plays, big plays to tight ends. 149 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 1: Dulca has been kind of a big play tight end 150 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,080 Speaker 1: this year. Since Week seven, Kansas City has allowed the 151 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 1: third highest yards reception to opposing tight ends. So all right, 152 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: let's recap the six selections for this week. We like 153 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 1: Josh Allen under two hundred and fifty six point five 154 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 1: passing yards, Joe Burrow over two hundred and seventy eight 155 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 1: point five passing yards, Deshaun Watson under two hundred and 156 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 1: twenty five point five passing yards, say Kwon Barkley under 157 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 1: seventy one point five rushing yards, Garrett Wilson over sixty 158 00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 1: one point five receiving yards, and Greg Golsiic over thirty 159 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,480 Speaker 1: nine point five receiving yards. So that's it. Let's see 160 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: if we can keep it rolling in week fourteen. My friends, 161 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 1: good luck with all of your wagers. This week may 162 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 1: be a profitable weekend for you. We'll talk to you 163 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: against soon.