WEBVTT - TechStuff Tidbits: The Problems of Obsolescence 0:00:04.400 --> 0:00:07.800 Welcome to tex Stuff, a production from my Heart Radio. 0:00:12.080 --> 0:00:14.800 Hey there, and welcome to tech Stuff. I'm your host, 0:00:14.960 --> 0:00:17.760 Joathan Strickland. I'm an executive producer with I Heart Radio 0:00:17.840 --> 0:00:20.400 and how the tech are you. It's time for a 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:24.360 text Stuff Tidbits probably gonna be how longer tidbits episodes? 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:26.480 I just don't know how to do short ones apparently, 0:00:27.080 --> 0:00:32.440 But I wanted to talk about obsolescence. Uh. And this 0:00:32.560 --> 0:00:35.360 is because I read an article which I'll be talking 0:00:35.360 --> 0:00:38.680 about later in this episode that really got me to 0:00:38.760 --> 0:00:41.040 thinking about it in kind of a big picture way. 0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:44.160 And um, I really want to talk about the dangers 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:48.959 of obsolescence, of of technology going obsolete. And I've done 0:00:49.000 --> 0:00:52.400 a few episodes where I've talked about these kind of things. 0:00:52.400 --> 0:00:54.560 I know, I as actor and I did a fun 0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:57.600 episode where we just talked about, you know, technology that 0:00:58.240 --> 0:01:03.800 no longer is really relevant. But this goes beyond that. 0:01:03.880 --> 0:01:07.480 I've also talked about this with in connection to the 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:11.039 right to repair, and in case you're new to that phrase, 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:15.840 it refers to a movement in which consumers and some 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:20.840 organizations are really pressuring companies to open up options for 0:01:20.880 --> 0:01:24.319 the maintenance and repair of their products. That they produce 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:27.319 so that you are not forced as a customer to 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:31.200 either throw out something that no longer works and then 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:35.560 replace it prematurely, or you have to jump through hoops 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:38.840 to go through the quote unquote official channels to repair it. 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:43.679 And we all know why companies want to build these 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:47.280 kinds of systems that require users to go through official channels. 0:01:47.360 --> 0:01:50.880 And it's all called revenue. Um. If I make a 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:53.880 widget and I sell my widget to you, well that's 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:55.920 good for me, you know, but it's only good that 0:01:56.000 --> 0:01:59.120 one time, because you might your widget and then you're 0:01:59.120 --> 0:02:01.920 off on your married little way. But if I also 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:04.600 make sure that I build the widgets in such a 0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:08.000 way that only I am able to do maintenance and 0:02:08.040 --> 0:02:11.880 repair on those widgets, well then you have no option 0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:15.040 but to bring the widget back to me when you 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:17.360 need that kind of work done and then pay me 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:21.200 a fee in the process. Or you have to throw 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:23.800 away your broken widget and maybe you're gonna buy a 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:26.320 new one from me. You know that either way, I 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:31.720 make money. And when my widget company becomes a global conglomerate, 0:02:32.280 --> 0:02:36.480 you know, widgets around the world, I might end up 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:39.440 creating a whole network of repair shops out there, and 0:02:39.520 --> 0:02:42.239 each one has to pay me a hefty license fee 0:02:42.639 --> 0:02:45.959 for the privilege of being allowed to work on widgets. 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:50.080 And I then provide the correct tools and documentation so 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:52.160 that people can do that, but only if they pay 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:56.079 me the licensing fee. So that independent repair shop down 0:02:56.120 --> 0:02:58.480 the road that you have a good relationship with, well, 0:02:58.960 --> 0:03:01.560 they don't get access to in of those resources, or 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:03.639 you know, they might be ill equipped to do any 0:03:03.680 --> 0:03:06.240 work on the product, or they might even be incapable 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:09.240 of during doing work on the product because I've locked 0:03:09.240 --> 0:03:11.760 it away essentially, and they're not part of the system, 0:03:12.000 --> 0:03:15.280 so you can't go to them. So the right to 0:03:15.400 --> 0:03:19.000 repair movement essentially says it is unfair and anti competitive 0:03:19.120 --> 0:03:21.680 for companies to lock down their products so that you 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:25.600 can't maintain and repair stuff yourself or to go to 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:29.560 someone of your own choosing. And we're seeing that kind 0:03:29.560 --> 0:03:32.280 of story you play out across the world. Various governments 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:35.120 are starting to pass laws to try and guarantee the 0:03:35.240 --> 0:03:37.520 right to repair. And this will also come into play 0:03:37.560 --> 0:03:41.960 with the concept of obsolescence. So when I say obsolescence, 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:46.280 I'm thinking about a few possible pathways that essentially lead 0:03:46.360 --> 0:03:50.200 to the same destination. And the destination is that you've 0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:53.640 got a product or maybe a service that no longer 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:57.560 is receiving support from the company that created it. Uh, 0:03:57.680 --> 0:04:01.560 the product or service might still work, but there are 0:04:02.040 --> 0:04:04.920 better or at least more supported options that are out there, 0:04:05.320 --> 0:04:08.480 and over time its performance will diminish. So in other words, 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:12.640 maybe you've got a particular hardware gadget. The company that 0:04:12.680 --> 0:04:15.640 made that gadget has gone out of business, and so 0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:18.440 you don't have any way of getting in your replacement 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:20.760 parts or anything. No one's making them because the company 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:25.240 that did make them is gone now. So while it works, 0:04:25.279 --> 0:04:28.320 it's fine, but once it breaks down, you might be 0:04:28.440 --> 0:04:31.600 stuck with just a dead piece of technology. And this 0:04:31.680 --> 0:04:34.520 is a huge problem in tech in general. And it's 0:04:34.560 --> 0:04:37.800 also kind of what the tech industry is largely built upon, 0:04:38.640 --> 0:04:40.960 and that can be a really bad thing. In fact, 0:04:41.080 --> 0:04:43.480 it's kind of what you know, hype and product cycles 0:04:43.480 --> 0:04:46.960 are all built around. So I always think of back 0:04:47.000 --> 0:04:51.000 in the day when Steve Jobs was alive and he 0:04:51.120 --> 0:04:55.200 was Master of the Product presentation at Apple. You could 0:04:55.240 --> 0:05:00.720 really sense audience excitement in an Apple presentation. Even if 0:05:00.760 --> 0:05:04.520 you were just watching that presentation on streaming video. You 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:07.800 could just sense how excited the crowd was, and Steve 0:05:07.880 --> 0:05:10.120 Jobs would come up on stage and pull out the 0:05:10.200 --> 0:05:13.559 latest iPhone or iPad or Mac or whatever and gush 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:16.760 about how it blows the doors off all the other 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:20.720 technologies out there, either like introducing something for the first time, 0:05:21.000 --> 0:05:23.880 like that first iPhone presentation way back in early two 0:05:23.880 --> 0:05:28.400 thousand seven, or showing how the latest model has become 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:33.920 an incredible improvement over all past models, and everyone ends 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:37.080 up going nuts. The crowd ate it up. And these 0:05:37.080 --> 0:05:39.359 were the same crowds who a year earlier would have 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:42.440 gone gaga over the previous generation of those products and 0:05:42.480 --> 0:05:45.400 so on, But now it was almost like they were 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:49.279 ready to throw their current iPhone or iPad or whatever 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:52.719 into the garbage and rush out and buy a new one. 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:57.000 Now I'm exaggerating a little bit, but only a little bit. 0:05:57.320 --> 0:06:01.760 So Back in two thousand fourteen, Rogerner of Recon dug 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:06.200 through some data and discovered that about forty of smartphone 0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:12.320 owners were updating their phones every single year. Now, that's 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:15.000 pretty incredible. Here in the United States, back when the 0:06:15.040 --> 0:06:19.240 iPhone first came out, it was pretty standard to sign 0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:24.160 two year contract agreements with providers like cell phone providers 0:06:24.600 --> 0:06:27.880 and it would lock you into that provider for two years. 0:06:28.240 --> 0:06:31.880 But as part of that you would typically typically get 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:37.599 a really big discount on phone models, so your your 0:06:37.600 --> 0:06:40.200 phone choice was being subsidized. You weren't having to pay 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:46.160 the full retail price for a phone, which was considered 0:06:46.200 --> 0:06:48.720 to be a pretty nice trade off because the upfront 0:06:48.760 --> 0:06:51.400 cost was so much lower. In fact, with a lot 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:54.600 of phone plans, the phone would be part of the plan. 0:06:54.640 --> 0:06:58.080 You wouldn't be paying any extra. Now that money would 0:06:58.120 --> 0:07:01.599 be factored into your monthly ill, but that was monthly. 0:07:01.680 --> 0:07:04.400 It wasn't all up front, and it was just a 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:07.839 different world back then. Like these days, you typically buy 0:07:07.880 --> 0:07:10.720 your phone outright and then you have it added on 0:07:10.760 --> 0:07:12.840 to whatever plan you happen to have, or maybe you 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:16.240 even switch plans. It's a very different world. But yeah, 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:18.640 back then, getting a new phone often meant that you 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:21.400 were agreeing to a two year contract, and if you 0:07:21.440 --> 0:07:24.400 were upgrading every year, then it's not like you were 0:07:24.440 --> 0:07:27.120 renewing that two year agreement. Instead, you were having to 0:07:27.160 --> 0:07:30.040 pay the upfront cost of the smartphone and keep it 0:07:30.120 --> 0:07:32.520 on the plan that you already had, or you were 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:35.360 gonna have to pay extra and cancel a plan. So 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:41.200 it was pretty remarkable that still for people of smartphone 0:07:41.240 --> 0:07:44.120 owners were actually going through that process here in the US, 0:07:45.040 --> 0:07:47.320 because I mean it was not it was it was 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:52.400 a considerable investment. Now that churn rate forty percent of 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:55.880 the owners upgrading every year. That was great for Apple, 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:59.440 It was tough on consumers, and it was terrible for 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:02.880 the environ It still is. But it showed that the 0:08:02.960 --> 0:08:08.440 consuming public was a willing participant in this acceleration of obsolescence. 0:08:08.800 --> 0:08:12.760 And I'm not even getting into the concept of planned obsolescence. 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:16.960 That's when a company creates a product or service where 0:08:16.960 --> 0:08:21.600 the company already anticipates when it will stop supporting that 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:25.680 service or when it will replace it. Um. And that 0:08:25.880 --> 0:08:29.360 means that we already know from the get go that 0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:32.560 this thing that's going out has a limited lifespan, and 0:08:32.760 --> 0:08:36.960 after that it's kind of buyer beware. Um, I'm not 0:08:37.000 --> 0:08:39.640 even talking about that. Or you know technology that's only 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:41.640 designed to last a couple of years and then breaks 0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:44.960 down so you are forced to replace it. That's another 0:08:45.000 --> 0:08:48.560 element of obsolescence, but I've covered it before. Uh, but yeah, 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:51.559 that also plays a role in this. But let's think 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:56.920 about the consequences that follow from this trend of needing 0:08:56.960 --> 0:09:02.120 to replace technology so frequent a and how those consequences 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:06.679 can play out. Now, I mentioned environmental impact that actually 0:09:06.760 --> 0:09:10.440 is really huge. The whole supply chain, from start to finish, 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:15.040 has a massive environmental impact, and it's rarely a good one. 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:18.520 For example, let's look at the very beginning of the 0:09:18.559 --> 0:09:21.560 supply chain. So a lot of tech that we have 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:26.080 requires stuff that uses what we call rare earth metals. 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:30.320 Rare earth metals consist of a group of seventeen elements. 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:35.160 Fifteen of them are lanthanide elements. The two others are 0:09:35.160 --> 0:09:38.680 not lanthanides, but they're frequently found in the same ores 0:09:39.200 --> 0:09:43.560 as the other lanthanides are, and as rare earth metals implies, 0:09:43.800 --> 0:09:47.440 all seventeen of the elements are classified as metals, and 0:09:47.760 --> 0:09:52.560 unlike metals like iron, these elements don't appear as visible 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:54.960 lumps and or you're not going to find a vein 0:09:55.760 --> 0:10:00.840 of these lanthanides. They're actually not that rare um not 0:10:00.960 --> 0:10:02.800 in the grand scheme of things. Most of them are 0:10:03.040 --> 0:10:07.160 far more abundant in the Earth's crust than say, gold is. However, 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:11.320 most of the time they're found in such low concentrations 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:15.560 that mining them would cost more than what you would 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:18.720 get out of what you mind, so you would be 0:10:18.800 --> 0:10:21.840 losing money on the process. So it's not that there 0:10:21.960 --> 0:10:25.240 isn't a lot of these rare earth metals out there, 0:10:25.760 --> 0:10:27.880 but that it takes a lot of effort to get 0:10:28.600 --> 0:10:33.560 enough of them efficiently to make a profit. Now, these 0:10:33.559 --> 0:10:36.880 metals are embedded in minerals and rocks, so you have 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:39.839 to take several steps to get at the metals. One 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:41.680 way you could do this is you could just you know, 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:46.400 dig up a massive pit and you use explosives to 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:49.840 break up rocks, and you shovel up all the broken pieces, 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:52.640 and you put these pieces through a process in which 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:56.720 you crush the rocks down and use chemicals to separate 0:10:56.760 --> 0:11:00.120 the metals from the minerals, and then you skim the 0:11:00.160 --> 0:11:02.959 metals away and you use those and you're left with 0:11:03.000 --> 0:11:07.080 a lot of waste rock and chemical mixtures that you 0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:10.000 have to dispose of properly, and all of that just 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:13.120 to get it that low concentration of those rare earth metals, 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:16.560 and we need a lot of those. Not just for 0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:19.080 the tech industry though, that is one that has a 0:11:19.160 --> 0:11:21.880 very high demand for these rare earth metals. But they're 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:25.440 used in stuff like batteries, for example, and as we 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:28.680 shift more towards depending upon stuff like electric motors to 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:32.040 power our vehicles, the demand for rare earth metals is 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:36.440 going to continue to rise dramatically. They're also really important 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:39.680 for renewable energy systems like wind turbines, which is kind 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:43.439 of ironic when you think of the potential environmental impact 0:11:43.559 --> 0:11:47.360 of mining. But we also use them for stuff like 0:11:47.400 --> 0:11:52.800 catalysts to facilitate certain chemical processes, or phosphors to illuminate 0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:55.920 stuff like screens, or use them to polish glass in 0:11:56.000 --> 0:11:59.480 order to produce high performing optics. Militaries around the world 0:11:59.559 --> 0:12:01.920 depend up on rare earth metals is a critical component 0:12:01.960 --> 0:12:06.120 in high tech military gear, everything from GPS equipment to 0:12:06.240 --> 0:12:10.280 guided missiles. So we need a lot of this stuff. 0:12:10.360 --> 0:12:12.960 And like I said, while there's plenty of it on Earth, 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:16.600 it isn't always found in high concentrations. So this leads 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:20.280 us to the really ugly part of that situation. I'll 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:31.880 talk about that after we come back from this break. Okay, 0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:34.240 to have a mining operation that's large enough to get 0:12:34.280 --> 0:12:37.440 sufficient amounts of rare earth metals, and yet the operation 0:12:37.520 --> 0:12:40.559 has to be cheap enough so that it can be profitable. 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:45.080 Certain conditions need to be present, and one of those 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:49.679 typically is a general disregard for the environment. Putting environmental 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:52.840 protections in place, you know, taking care not to cause damage, 0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:55.840 and addressing problems as they arise. All of that is 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:59.360 expensive and time consuming, and if your profit depends on 0:12:59.520 --> 0:13:03.880 keeping costs down, you're probably not going to pay that 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:07.920 much attention to environmental concerns. So that means a lot 0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:10.880 of rare earth metal mining operations are taking place in 0:13:10.960 --> 0:13:15.400 regions where there are lacks or no environmental protections in place. 0:13:16.000 --> 0:13:19.360 Some places would forego pretty much even the most basic 0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:23.359 environmental protections and would just start pumping stuff like ammonium 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:27.320 chloride and ammonium sulfate directly into the earth, all in 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.080 an effort to separate rare earth metals from the rest 0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:33.080 of the soil and rock in there. This was a 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:37.600 pretty common practice in China. For example, the chemical waste 0:13:37.720 --> 0:13:41.800 can be environmentally hazardous. In China, it wasn't unusual to 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:45.480 simply build wastewater pools to hold the runoff. They were 0:13:45.559 --> 0:13:49.800 kind of like massive above ground pools literally, and they 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:54.240 would just hold the wastewater and these pools frequently had 0:13:54.280 --> 0:13:57.400 little to no protection around them, meaning that if something 0:13:57.400 --> 0:14:01.520 were to disturb the pools, the wastewater could potentially contaminate 0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:04.960 the local area. Some of the waste materials are not 0:14:05.040 --> 0:14:10.000 just toxic, but somewhat radioactive, which creates additional concerns. And 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.200 I'm mostly using the past tense here because in recent years, 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:16.680 China has started to address this issue, working toward new 0:14:16.679 --> 0:14:21.560 ways to mind rare earth metals that are more environmentally responsible. 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:25.920 But for a couple of decades that just wasn't the case. 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:29.200 And now there are regions in China where the locals 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:32.720 are having to tackle monumental cleanup jobs that could take 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:37.720 as long as a century to complete. Then, on top 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:41.440 of the environmental concerns, we have human rights concerns. In 0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:45.239 places like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, mining operations 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:50.600 are sometimes run by violent militias which sometimes rely on 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:55.320 forced labor to operate, the mind so slavery essentially. While 0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:58.480 China is the main source for many rare earth metals, 0:14:58.880 --> 0:15:01.920 some of them do also come out of Africa and 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:06.600 so are heavy dependence upon the materials helps support violent 0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:11.640 groups and human suffering, and that makes that obsolescence problem 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:15.040 all the more critical, right. I mean, it's grim enough 0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:17.840 that we're having to deal with the consequences of our 0:15:17.880 --> 0:15:21.200 technological needs this way, but then to add with it 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:23.960 this cycle in which we're encouraged to replace our tech 0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:28.080 frequently and make the problem worse. It exacerbates everything. It's 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:30.600 it's pretty gruesome when you think about it. And then 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:34.320 on top of that, for another environmental issue, what do 0:15:34.360 --> 0:15:36.520 you do with the old tech, the stuff that went 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:40.280 obsolete if you can't repair it, which is you know, 0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:43.000 part of the issue. If you're not able to repair it, 0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:45.360 or even if you did repair it, but it couldn't 0:15:45.480 --> 0:15:47.600 keep up with what you needed to do because everything 0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:51.760 else has advanced beyond the capabilities of the hardware. What 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:54.600 do you do with the hardware? The ideally you would 0:15:54.800 --> 0:15:57.120 send it to a place where it could be recycled 0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:00.280 or the materials inside it could be reclaimed and then 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:04.120 used in other materials other products down the line. But 0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:06.080 a lot of it just ends up going to landfills. 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:08.560 And that's awful, especially when you consider that a lot 0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:12.160 of the stuff that goes into our tech is potentially 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:15.200 you know, it is toxic and could potentially contaminate the 0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:19.120 environment if it leaches out of the hardware. So again, 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:25.880 this obsolescence issue is feeding into the environmental crisis. And 0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:27.880 of course there are other things we should have to 0:16:27.920 --> 0:16:30.320 think about two and these aren't quite as global a 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:34.280 concern like They're not like I would argue, environmental impact 0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:39.080 that almost gets to existential levels of crisis. Human rights 0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:43.440 violations also obviously incredibly important. But there are some other 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:46.120 things that we have to remember as well. There aren't 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:49.960 that critical in that same scale, but are still important. 0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:53.240 For example, there's the burden that companies carry when they 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:56.000 go all in on a certain system. This is how 0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:59.400 we get what we call legacy systems. So let's use 0:16:59.480 --> 0:17:03.800 a hypothetical picture to understand this, all right, So we've 0:17:03.880 --> 0:17:08.760 got this business um, and this business company does business 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:11.840 e stuff in the business world in the nineteen sixties, 0:17:12.520 --> 0:17:16.600 and the company decides to purchase a brand new computer 0:17:16.640 --> 0:17:21.399 system in order to run certain critical operations. That's going 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:23.560 to free up people so that they only have to 0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:26.280 work an hour a day, at least, that's what we 0:17:26.320 --> 0:17:28.040 all believe back in the day. It turns out that 0:17:28.080 --> 0:17:30.840 work will fill up all the available hours, even if 0:17:30.840 --> 0:17:35.000 we offload some of the workload to machines. Anyway, the 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:40.639 company's processes lean very heavily on this new technology. Some 0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:44.879 of it's automated. All these different special proprietary programs have 0:17:44.920 --> 0:17:49.000 been written, and these very key functions are moved onto 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:53.159 this machine. Now, meanwhile, the company grows and expands, It 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:57.119 adds to its services, it invests in new systems, but 0:17:57.280 --> 0:17:59.800 in an effort to be as efficient as possible the 0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:03.560 but it continues to rely on this older computer system 0:18:03.600 --> 0:18:08.040 to run that certain group of mission critical processes because 0:18:08.119 --> 0:18:12.000 building a comparable new system to handle those tasks and 0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:15.520 then migrating everything over to the new system would be 0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:19.879 costly and time consuming. So time goes on. Now we're 0:18:19.920 --> 0:18:22.919 at a point where modern systems aren't compatible with the 0:18:22.920 --> 0:18:24.840 older one at all, but we still need to run 0:18:24.880 --> 0:18:27.760 those those old processes. They're still part of our business. 0:18:28.320 --> 0:18:30.760 We might even be at a point where no one 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:33.800 on staff really has the knowledge that the company had 0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:36.679 relied upon in the past. So building a new version 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:39.040 of the old system is even harder because no one 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:42.000 remembers how the old one was built. Right, You have 0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:45.960 this loss of knowledge over time. This does happen in companies, 0:18:46.440 --> 0:18:48.919 so then the company continues to try and support the 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:53.200 old computer system, now an ancient computer system that's running 0:18:53.200 --> 0:18:57.159 this original process because those processes are still important to 0:18:57.160 --> 0:18:59.960 the business, and the company really has to scramble whenever 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:04.480 the old computer system breaks down. And all things breakdown 0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:08.920 over time, gosh darn it entropy, so this is not easy. 0:19:08.960 --> 0:19:13.359 By now, the company that produced the original computer system 0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:16.680 might be out of business, or maybe it is in business, 0:19:16.680 --> 0:19:19.159 but it's long stop supporting that piece of equipment, so 0:19:19.200 --> 0:19:21.520 you have no one to turn to when things go 0:19:21.600 --> 0:19:24.200 wrong in that case. Now, this happens all the time, 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:28.480 particularly for companies that have to build out really customized 0:19:29.000 --> 0:19:31.960 systems to handle stuff that might be unique to that 0:19:32.040 --> 0:19:37.040 one company. So every time they upgrade their processes or 0:19:37.080 --> 0:19:40.360 their systems, management has to decide whether or not they 0:19:40.359 --> 0:19:43.800 should invest even more money to migrate stuff off of 0:19:43.840 --> 0:19:47.240 old platforms or just to keep relying on the old ones. 0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:50.640 And sometimes the idea of migration really feels like you're 0:19:50.680 --> 0:19:53.159 reinventing the wheel. So it kind of is hard to 0:19:53.200 --> 0:19:56.560 go to different stakeholders in the company and say, hey, guys, 0:19:56.560 --> 0:19:59.280 I know we've already done this, but we kind of 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:01.399 need to do it again in on this new system 0:20:01.440 --> 0:20:05.680 so that we can operate with fewer risks, and invariably 0:20:05.680 --> 0:20:08.880 someone's going to say, well, what's wrong with the old one? Now? 0:20:08.920 --> 0:20:12.400 The same thing holds true for tons of individual consumers 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:15.160 to One of the things that always blows my mind 0:20:15.200 --> 0:20:17.479 is when I look at the market share for various 0:20:17.600 --> 0:20:21.840 versions of the Windows operating system. Now, I know I'm 0:20:21.880 --> 0:20:25.159 talking about software in this case rather than hardware, but 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:28.560 software does relate back to hardware because one of the 0:20:28.600 --> 0:20:32.800 issues is as operating systems get more complex, they require 0:20:32.880 --> 0:20:36.760 more advanced hardware to run. That means if you are 0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:40.679 stuck with an older computer, right you can't afford to 0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:42.960 buy a new one, maybe you don't have access to 0:20:43.000 --> 0:20:44.480 a new one. You could be in a part of 0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:47.399 the world where you have an old computer and that's 0:20:47.440 --> 0:20:50.200 that's as good as it's going to be for you. Well, 0:20:50.960 --> 0:20:54.480 you have no real access to newer operating systems because 0:20:55.240 --> 0:20:58.879 your hardware isn't capable of running them, so you're stuck 0:20:58.920 --> 0:21:03.080 on the older models. I decided I wanted to look 0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:07.280 at the distribution of current Windows market share on desktop computers. 0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:10.600 So more than eight of those computers are still using 0:21:10.600 --> 0:21:13.639 Windows ten. I should remind you that's not the latest 0:21:13.720 --> 0:21:16.600 version of Windows, but it is by far the most 0:21:16.640 --> 0:21:21.360 popular version out there. However, point four nine per cent 0:21:21.880 --> 0:21:26.119 of desktop systems are still using Windows XP. Now, I 0:21:26.200 --> 0:21:30.000 know point for nine is tiny, it's literally less than 0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:34.200 half a percentage point, but keep in mind Windows XP 0:21:34.440 --> 0:21:37.560 first came out in two thousand one, more than twenty 0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:42.680 years ago, and Microsoft ended all support for the operating 0:21:42.680 --> 0:21:47.600 system back in. That means there have been no patches, 0:21:47.800 --> 0:21:51.320 no updates for about eight years, and there are a 0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:54.520 whole bunch of reasons why that means sticking with Windows 0:21:54.640 --> 0:22:00.280 XP is a bad thing. Interestingly, there's still more folks 0:22:00.600 --> 0:22:05.119 using Windows XP then there are using Windows Vista. Windows 0:22:05.240 --> 0:22:08.560 Vista accounts for just point one nine of all desktop 0:22:08.600 --> 0:22:12.000 Windows machines, and Vista came out in two thousand seven. 0:22:12.240 --> 0:22:15.080 It was actually meant to be the successor to Windows XP. 0:22:16.440 --> 0:22:19.680 So you see how that went. All right, I'm gonna 0:22:19.680 --> 0:22:22.399 be ranting a little bit longer, but actually probably get 0:22:22.400 --> 0:22:32.199 a drink, so we're gonna take another quick break. Okay, 0:22:32.240 --> 0:22:35.840 before the break, my point was that people rely on 0:22:35.920 --> 0:22:39.320 computers running on Windows XP no longer have support for 0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:43.280 that operating system. Microsoft does not support it anymore, and 0:22:43.640 --> 0:22:46.639 any vulnerabilities in the operating system are going to stay 0:22:46.640 --> 0:22:51.000 there no matter what. There's no hope of the security patch. Now, 0:22:51.480 --> 0:22:54.840 you could argue that because the market share is so 0:22:55.000 --> 0:22:58.280 low that so relatively so few people are actually using 0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:02.040 Windows XP, no one would really bother to try and 0:23:02.119 --> 0:23:06.680 exploit a vulnerability that's there anyway, because the target population 0:23:06.760 --> 0:23:08.600 would be too small to make it worth your while. 0:23:08.640 --> 0:23:13.320 In other words, you could create malware, but you would 0:23:13.320 --> 0:23:17.200 be hitting so few people. What would be the point that? 0:23:17.200 --> 0:23:21.400 That is a an argument security through obscurity, But when 0:23:21.480 --> 0:23:25.399 companies in support, it means folks can be left without options. 0:23:25.520 --> 0:23:27.640 And I want to be clear, I am not saying 0:23:27.640 --> 0:23:31.639 that companies are obligated to continue to provide support, and 0:23:31.800 --> 0:23:36.240 definitely that would be unreasonable and frankly impossible unless we 0:23:36.280 --> 0:23:39.240 all just collectively said, yeah, we're good, we don't we 0:23:39.280 --> 0:23:41.119 don't need things to be any better than how they 0:23:41.119 --> 0:23:44.080 are right now. And you know that doesn't sound likely. 0:23:44.480 --> 0:23:46.679 So it's more that I just want folks to be 0:23:46.840 --> 0:23:51.320 aware of these consequences, that these things happen, and to 0:23:51.440 --> 0:23:55.480 plan for that, to take that into account. So let's 0:23:55.600 --> 0:23:58.679 relate this back to that right to repair movement. So 0:23:58.720 --> 0:24:01.320 another reason it's so in hordnant to have the right 0:24:01.359 --> 0:24:05.360 to repair is because companies can and do in support 0:24:05.440 --> 0:24:09.840 for certain products, whether they are hardware or software. Sometimes 0:24:09.840 --> 0:24:11.960 the company does this by choice because they want to 0:24:12.000 --> 0:24:16.320 focus on newer products. Sometimes it's by necessity because the 0:24:16.359 --> 0:24:19.080