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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read a lot?

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Speaker 2: They're all for running a game.

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Speaker 1: So smoothe so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 2: Six sing just glorious Executionsness, guys, all I'm looking for

6
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Speaker 2: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shut with that? Shop with mind?

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Speaker 1: Good buddy, And that's why you.

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Speaker 2: See nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picture them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up.

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Speaker 2: I'm trying the wall.

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Speaker 3: It's left too.

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Speaker 1: The wide eyed drill pibus, how old Earth big happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wonder Goal, the soccer

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Speaker 4: betting podcast from the Action Network, presented to you by

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Speaker 4: our lovely sponsors by three sixty five, the world's favorite

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Speaker 4: sportsbook brand. Sign up with Romo Code Action to get

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Speaker 4: bet three six five's exclusive sign up offer in New

21
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Speaker 4: Jersey and Colorado. Bet one dollar on any game, get

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Speaker 4: two hundred free. And we have a lot of games

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Speaker 4: to discuss on this our Champions League preview pod, but

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Speaker 4: there's only one place to start. That is in Germany,

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Speaker 4: where Bayern Munich are minus one thirty four favorites hosting

26
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Speaker 4: Barcelona plus two eighty. The draw here is plus three fifty.

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Speaker 4: Of course, these odds brought to you by bet three

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Speaker 4: six five A Barcelona. They are plus one nine to

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Speaker 4: nine expected goal differential per ninety so far the season.

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Speaker 4: That's the second best in Europe's Big five leagues, behind

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Speaker 4: only PSGRE who play in a much easier league. So

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Speaker 4: read into that as you will. Byron's break with them

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Speaker 4: plus one point seventy to nine expected gold differential per

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Speaker 4: ninety as the best in the Bundesliga, which is just

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Speaker 4: completely overserved to start the season unon Berlin and first

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Speaker 4: Friedberg and second Byron and third after three straight draws

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Speaker 4: in domestic play, but they're expected go differential per ninety

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Speaker 4: is the fourth best in Europe. These are two heavyweights

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Speaker 4: and the three of us. If you've been listening to

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Speaker 4: this show, we tend to bet against Byron Munich, and

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Speaker 4: it's not because we think that this is a bad team.

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Speaker 4: We just think that their price is often inflated, and

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Speaker 4: it looks like it is. Here. You're getting near three

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Speaker 4: to one odds on Barcelona, who are trending in the

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Speaker 4: right direction and have been ever since Ronald Cooman left.

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Speaker 4: So I'm gonna do something that we do often on

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Speaker 4: the show and then we often regret it very quickly

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Speaker 4: on a Tuesday afternoon, and that's bet against Byron Munich.

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Speaker 4: I'll be on Barcelona on the money line here, Bj,

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Speaker 4: what about you?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Now, I'm going to be on Barcelona plus half

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Speaker 1: a goal at plus one ten. I mean, we all

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Speaker 1: know the history between these two teams, right the eight

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Speaker 1: to two thrashing in the Semis and twenty twenty Byron

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Speaker 1: destroyed them both meetings in the group stage. Last season,

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Speaker 1: only one of those, Shabby was in charge and it

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Speaker 1: was only like his sixth or seventh match actually in charge,

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Speaker 1: so he didn't really have a system going the way

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Speaker 1: that he wanted to and get off the ground running. Well, now,

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Speaker 1: since Haby has taken over since November of twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 1: Barcelona is about a plus one point one actually differential

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Speaker 1: per ninety minutes. Bayern Munich over that same timeframe is

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Speaker 1: about plus one point five to five. So essentially Biern

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Speaker 1: Munich's been about, oh, you know, a point four to

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Speaker 1: five or half a goal better than Barcelona. Well, then

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Speaker 1: when you take into account you ate the coefficients I have.

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Speaker 1: I mean like you already mentioned like the Bundesliga has

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Speaker 1: been way down and it's been trending down for the

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Speaker 1: last few years. Basically Bayern Muick's the only team that's

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Speaker 1: holding it up in European competitions. I have Spain rated

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Speaker 1: about zero point four to two goals better than the Bundesliga,

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Speaker 1: so that kind of makes up. So basically I have

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Speaker 1: these two teams even like dead, even on a neutral field.

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Speaker 1: So then you take into account that Bayern Munich's best striker,

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Speaker 1: Robert Lewandowski, a one point zero eight actually pre ninety

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Speaker 1: minute striker last season, is now at Barcelona. That makes

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Speaker 1: their attack much better. They added a ton of pieces

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Speaker 1: in the off season. They got Koonda, they got Andreis Christensen,

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Speaker 1: they got Kessi, they have Raffina. Like this bar team

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Speaker 1: is much much better than it was last season, and

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Speaker 1: they didn't really lose anybody either. And now you know,

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Speaker 1: Byron listen, they're off and running. Their offenses looked good

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Speaker 1: and the bonus I know they have three straight draws,

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Speaker 1: but like you mentioned, the XG is still really really good.

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Speaker 1: They were good against Enter. They probably deserve to win

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Speaker 1: that match. You know, they kind of dominated the box

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Speaker 1: score one two nothing, but for minus one thirty four

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Speaker 1: at home essentially with two teams that are even You're

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Speaker 1: getting value on Barcelona no matter what it is. And

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Speaker 1: you know what striker would you who knows Byron Munich's

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Speaker 1: defense better than Robert Lewandowski? I mean up mcconough and

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Speaker 1: dalict is kind of a vulnerable defense. It's not what

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Speaker 1: you would consider elite among Europe's you know, top five leagues.

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Speaker 1: So I'm taking Barcelona. I have value on them. I'm

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Speaker 1: probably gonna regret it because Bayern Munich has thrashed them

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Speaker 1: the last three meetings, but I have to do it.

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Speaker 1: There's value on it. So I'm taking Barcelona plus half

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Speaker 1: a goal plus one ten.

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Speaker 4: Lew Windowski plus one thirty seven anytime goal score five

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Speaker 4: to one to be the first goal scorer. If you're

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Speaker 4: walking down narratives in this one, Anthony, you want to

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Speaker 4: bet Barcelona, but you just can't.

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Speaker 2: I'm close, but I can't get there. And Byron, you know,

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Speaker 2: Barsila plus a half plus one hundred is out there

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Speaker 2: and I'm very close to that, but I'm not quite

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Speaker 2: there in the number. You have to think about why

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Speaker 2: I think Byron has dominated this matchup and the reason

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Speaker 2: number one just more athletic, better athleticism, better work rates

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Speaker 2: off the ball, just a generally younger group of core

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Speaker 2: Now Barsa has worked to change that and they've gotten younger,

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Speaker 2: they've gotten better. I'm not sure that they've improved that

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Speaker 2: much out of possession. And that's the one thing that

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Speaker 2: scares me about this matchup here, because Chaby system did

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Speaker 2: get exposed in the second meeting too, and Barsa was

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Speaker 2: playing for their group lives. Bian had nothing on the

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Speaker 2: line in that match, and yet Bian had no problem

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Speaker 2: tearing them apart. Byron is kind of built in a way,

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Speaker 2: with the transitions being as lethal as they are, that

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Speaker 2: SA's weaknesses kind of feed into what Byron wants and

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Speaker 2: so I thought I was gonna get a better number here.

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Speaker 2: I thought the market would like Byron Moore. The market

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Speaker 2: has loved Byron in you know, the first group match

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Speaker 2: and given going into the Bundesliga. They've been a pretty

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Speaker 2: overvalue to my numbers for a long time, but especially

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Speaker 2: so in the last two or three months, even going

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Speaker 2: back to the end last season where I thought they

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Speaker 2: dropped off a little bit. Since in the second half

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Speaker 2: and so overall Barsa. Don't like the stylistic matchup and

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Speaker 2: don't like the number quite enough to get there.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: If we got to a three quarters or a one

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Speaker 2: Byron gets steamed up, you know, say one P fifty

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Speaker 2: one sixty, then I will get involved on Barsa. But

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Speaker 2: as the current number sits, I don't love a side

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Speaker 2: in this match. I do ever like the under. I

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Speaker 2: think it's a little inflated. Of course, with these two teams.

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Speaker 2: I could read off the attacking numbers and how impressive

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Speaker 2: they are, but those are based on situations where the

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Speaker 2: opponent is going to let them have the ball a lot,

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Speaker 2: and I think in a match like this Barsa, you know,

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Speaker 2: we'll see how they look. Im not gonna have a

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Speaker 2: much possession. I'm a little worried about that. That's the

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Speaker 2: one thing that scares me here. But I think Barsa

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Speaker 2: out of possession a little more, Byron not going to

145
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Speaker 2: have as much dominance as they're normally used to. Total

146
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Speaker 2: seems a bit high to me. I was expecting three

147
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Speaker 2: in a quarter. We got three and a half minus

148
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Speaker 2: one fifteen of the under. That would be my play

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Speaker 2: for this match right now.

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Speaker 4: The other match in groups is Victoria Pleasant at home

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Speaker 4: plus seven to fifty hosting enter minus two seventy five.

152
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Speaker 4: The drug here is four to one at bet three

153
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Speaker 4: sixty five. This is twelve forty five kickoff enter. I

154
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Speaker 4: heard someone, I think it was Nicky Bandin he say

155
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Speaker 4: the word feeble to describe their performance against Byron Munich

156
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Speaker 4: in the first round. I think that's a fair way

157
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Speaker 4: to put it. They've been not all that impressive. I

158
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Speaker 4: guess you could say in Syria out to start, they've

159
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Speaker 4: already lost I think is half as many games as

160
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Speaker 4: they lost all last season. Domestically, they are coming off

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Speaker 4: a one nail win over Torino b J's boys and Pleasant. Yeah,

162
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Speaker 4: they they scored. But when we didn't learn much from

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Speaker 4: about Barcelona's Champions League journey against at home against Victoria Pleasant,

164
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Speaker 4: nor did we learn much about this team at Barcelona,

165
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Speaker 4: I would say we know that they're bad, but are

166
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Speaker 4: they bad enough where you want to lagel and a

167
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Speaker 4: half on the road with a team like Inter who've

168
00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:17,040
Speaker 4: been inconsistent. I'm kind of on the fence here, so

169
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Speaker 4: I'm happy to turn it over to you two. You

170
00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,080
Speaker 4: two are on the same side here, and I'm happy

171
00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:23,360
Speaker 4: to be convinced. Maybe to join you guys. So Anthony,

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00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:28,640
Speaker 4: your thoughts here between the Italian giants and a team

173
00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:29,560
Speaker 4: out of the Czech Republic.

174
00:08:30,080 --> 00:08:33,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, it was not a very encouraging performance

175
00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,079
Speaker 2: from Inter. They're stuck in the mud right now, and

176
00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,600
Speaker 2: even the weekend against Torino. They've had a bunch of

177
00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:42,880
Speaker 2: weird matches where they've been the better side but haven't

178
00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:47,520
Speaker 2: quite got the results. Lazzio comes to mind the loss

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Speaker 2: to Milan. I thought they deserved at least a point

180
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Speaker 2: in that match, and then you look at their performance

181
00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,600
Speaker 2: from the last game, and you know it's not as

182
00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:58,280
Speaker 2: bad when you look at the box score as maybe

183
00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,040
Speaker 2: it was if you just kind of look at, you know,

184
00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:03,920
Speaker 2: the final score. The last minute old goal kind of

185
00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:06,400
Speaker 2: factors into what you may think of it. But Barca

186
00:09:06,520 --> 00:09:09,800
Speaker 2: completely dominated this Pleasant team and it really wasn't close.

187
00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,040
Speaker 2: Eighty four point nine percent field tilt for barsa seventy

188
00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,840
Speaker 2: six percent possession. Expected goals were one point one, but

189
00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:18,840
Speaker 2: a lot of that came for Pleasant off of one

190
00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,280
Speaker 2: chance and then late in the game when it was

191
00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:25,200
Speaker 2: well decided. So not much to like about this team.

192
00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:26,880
Speaker 2: I think this is just a good get right by

193
00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:28,880
Speaker 2: low spot for Inter, and I don't love laying a

194
00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:30,600
Speaker 2: goal and a half on the road in the Champions League.

195
00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:33,960
Speaker 2: But this Pleasant team is really, really bad. And Bja

196
00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:36,080
Speaker 2: has talked last week about their numbers in the Check

197
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Speaker 2: League and why they're not even good there, So you know,

198
00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:40,800
Speaker 2: why are we expecting them to be competitive in this league?

199
00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:42,400
Speaker 2: The reality is now for Inter if they want a

200
00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,680
Speaker 2: chance to advance, they need to not just win these matches,

201
00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:46,959
Speaker 2: but boost up their goal difference. And I think we're

202
00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,560
Speaker 2: going to see Inter in an ideal get right spot,

203
00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:51,800
Speaker 2: do exactly that. They've had a lot of tough matches

204
00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:54,400
Speaker 2: with three to Oho and Lazio and Milan and Bayern.

205
00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:56,840
Speaker 2: Now it's gonna be a huge step down in competition

206
00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:58,079
Speaker 2: and they have been a bit of a flat track

207
00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,360
Speaker 2: bully this season. That's far in Siria and some of

208
00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:02,320
Speaker 2: the teams are you know, Pleasant is on the level

209
00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:04,400
Speaker 2: of some of those teams. So you look at you know,

210
00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:08,560
Speaker 2: Pleasants numbers not particularly encouraging and Byron. You know, Inter

211
00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,480
Speaker 2: did get eight penalty box shots, so it wasn't all

212
00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:14,439
Speaker 2: bad to fourteen for Byron. There were chances they just

213
00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,640
Speaker 2: hit them right at Noier, so it's not like they

214
00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:18,959
Speaker 2: were completely dominated. You know, they had a mostly one

215
00:10:19,000 --> 00:10:22,000
Speaker 2: expected goal, So there's something there in Intern. I'm not

216
00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,199
Speaker 2: going to just sell off of one bad performance against Byron.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm taking into minus four and a half and

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Speaker 1: plus one ten as well. You know, Anthony, you already

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Speaker 1: mentioned it. I mean, pleasant, they're just really really bad.

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Speaker 1: They're probably the worst team in this competition. I would

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Speaker 1: say Barcelona had fifty touches in their penalty area. You

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Speaker 1: already mentioned seventy five percent possession. I mean I mentioned

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Speaker 1: it last week. Last season in the Czeckley only a

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Speaker 1: plus point three four expecting gold differential only averaged about

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Speaker 1: one point six x sheep for ninety. Like that's the

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Speaker 1: worst of any team outside of Europe's Big five leagues.

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Speaker 1: Like they literally buy XG. Are the worst team in

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Speaker 1: this competition. And you know, if Inter it's funny. If

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Speaker 1: you go back to last year's group stage, we all

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Speaker 1: know they held you know, they were right there with

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Speaker 1: Real Madrid over both meetings, but in the four matches

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Speaker 1: against Shocktar and Sheriff, they completely dominated them. It was

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Speaker 1: nine point three expect goals four to two point six

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Speaker 1: against and in Syria, dating back to the start of

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Speaker 1: last season, They've had twenty three matches against teams in

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Speaker 1: the bottom half the table. They have a plus forty

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Speaker 1: two point four expected goal to fretal like a plus

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Speaker 1: one point eighty five actually differential per ninety minutes, Like

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Speaker 1: this team just completely blows out lesser competition. So I'm

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Speaker 1: with you, Anthony. I'm taking into minus one and a half.

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Speaker 1: And also just to kind of compare talent levels to

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Speaker 1: let people see how big of a gap this is

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Speaker 1: between these two teams. If you look at transfer market

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Speaker 1: dot com, both these teams total squad transfer value enters

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Speaker 1: at six hundred and four million, pleasants at twenty four million.

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Speaker 1: The gap between these two teams is just so large.

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Speaker 1: So I have interspread at minus one point eighty three.

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Speaker 1: So I'm taking them minus one and a half at

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Speaker 1: plus one ten.

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Speaker 4: I'll join you guys three for three on interire on

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Speaker 4: this as one and a half.

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Speaker 1: This is not this is not one of the big

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Speaker 1: underdogs to take care Michael, Yeah, but I have I have.

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Speaker 4: A couple that I'm going to and indulge on for sure,

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Speaker 4: maybe one.

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Speaker 2: One pleasant for a one zier wine exactly.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Uh, all right, let's move to Group A. We'll start

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Speaker 4: with Liverpool, speaking of stuck in the mud. Of course

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Speaker 4: they didn't.

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Speaker 2: Play over the statement.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they didn't play over the weekend, along with all

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Speaker 4: the teams in England and Scotland. But they are minus

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Speaker 4: two hundred. They will be playing against i X at anfield.

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Speaker 4: I X come in plus four fifty. Boy did I

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Speaker 4: tried to tell you guys, I X would just they

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Speaker 4: would be fine without all those guys.

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Speaker 2: And it was the worst call we all had last Yeah,

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Speaker 2: that was.

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Speaker 4: That was that might go down, of course the worst

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Speaker 4: of the season. I ex plus four fifty on the road.

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Speaker 4: The draw here is plus three seventy five. I said

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Speaker 4: this on there our Premier League preview pod, which I'm

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Speaker 4: sure not a lot of people heard because the Premier

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Speaker 4: League was canceled for the weekend. It's hard to lay

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Speaker 4: this kind of number with Liverpool right now. You just

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Speaker 4: need to kind of They were playing Wolves, and Wolves

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Speaker 4: were ten to one on the money line, and it

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Speaker 4: just almost as behooves you as a better just to

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Speaker 4: either either want to sit out or you just want

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Speaker 4: to keep prodding this Liverpool team to see just how

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Speaker 4: far it will go, because you're still getting good prices.

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Speaker 4: That being said, we all thought I X were overrated

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Speaker 4: in the market before the Champions League started. One game

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Speaker 4: against the Rangers is not going to change that tune

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Speaker 4: for me. So I would like a little bit bigger number,

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Speaker 4: but it's I X or nothing for me here. But

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Speaker 4: I could see. We don't typically get into coach speak

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Speaker 4: all that much, but it does seem like Ergen Klopp

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Speaker 4: is kind of committing to I don't want to say

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Speaker 4: abandoning ship with like the all out press, but just

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Speaker 4: playing a more pragmatic managed game. That's kind of what

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Speaker 4: he was alluded to after Napoli when he said they

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Speaker 4: might need to kind of just like reimagine where they're

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Speaker 4: at right now, not unlike what Eric ten Hogg kind

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Speaker 4: of is doing with Man United. You don't need to

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Speaker 4: just go go go all the time there are It's

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Speaker 4: not like a cardinal sin to abandon that kind of

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Speaker 4: soccer for in these kind of situations. So I could

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Speaker 4: see Liverpool parking it a little bit, not a lot.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's not in their DNA, but being a

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Speaker 4: little less rambunctious, Anthony, what are your thoughts on Liverpool

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Speaker 4: I X and these numbers?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is this is a pass for me with

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Speaker 2: a lean to the under I think that we can't

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Speaker 2: overreact to one game from IX, but like we have

307
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Speaker 2: to also acknowledge that our prior on IAX, at least

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Speaker 2: what we thought prior going to last week, was that

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Speaker 2: this team would not be nearly as dominant, and we

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Speaker 2: didn't really have data necessarily to go off of that

311
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Speaker 2: that was more vibes, and this is an art, not

312
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Speaker 2: necessarily a science. When it comes to a team who

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Speaker 2: gets raided like IAX did, loses the manager, loses their striker,

314
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Speaker 2: best winger, arguably best defender, so you know, like it's

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Speaker 2: it's hard to truly gauge them. But I also think

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Speaker 2: that we, you know, maybe we were wrong on i AX.

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Speaker 2: Maybe they're not worse. But also I don't want to

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Speaker 2: say that after one match either against Ranger, because maybe

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Speaker 2: we're wrong on Rangers.

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Speaker 1: That's my question. So we'll be wrong about i X

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Speaker 1: or we were wrong about Rangers.

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Speaker 2: Right, and I was. I was not huge on Rangers

323
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Speaker 2: going into this tournament either, So I'm starting to think

324
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Speaker 2: that maybe this is more just as much about Rangers

325
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Speaker 2: was about i AX. When we when we think about

326
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Speaker 2: what we were wrong in our call. I cannot lay

327
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Speaker 2: Liverpool here at all. But I also have no interest

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Speaker 2: in I X the number. So if it got to

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Speaker 2: one and a half, I would be on I AX

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Speaker 2: because I do think that they can cause some problems.

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Speaker 2: And in a similar way that you know they're passing

332
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Speaker 2: combinations on the wings that they use at least they

333
00:15:32,720 --> 00:15:36,760
Speaker 2: used heavily under ten Hog can cause issues for Liverpool

334
00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,240
Speaker 2: defense that you know, if you were to pinpoint where

335
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Speaker 2: the biggest problems are beyond the midfield pressing, it's that

336
00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:45,800
Speaker 2: they're kind of getting overloaded in these wide areas where

337
00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:49,160
Speaker 2: they normally would have midfield help to help, and they're

338
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Speaker 2: not getting that because the midfield's old and not covering

339
00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:53,520
Speaker 2: as much ground as it used to, and so they're

340
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Speaker 2: getting kind of caught out. And you saw that in

341
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Speaker 2: the first goal I thought for Napoli or second goal

342
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Speaker 2: rather when Zambo and Giza just kind of did a

343
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Speaker 2: very simple one too and they were just right in

344
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Speaker 2: behind again and Liverpool's defense was kind of just standing

345
00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,880
Speaker 2: there looking at each other. Alexander nald Gomez so and

346
00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:11,080
Speaker 2: it looks like Vandyke's lost a bit of athleticism too,

347
00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:13,440
Speaker 2: So you know we talked about Liverpool on the last pot.

348
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Speaker 2: We're gonna talking about Liverpool a lot. This number seems

349
00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:16,400
Speaker 2: about right for me.

350
00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:21,320
Speaker 4: IX last six matches twenty two goals scored, one goal against, Yes,

351
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,560
Speaker 4: one match in the Champions League at five in the

352
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:27,280
Speaker 4: errative is a But that's the frightening part about Liverpool

353
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Speaker 4: and NBJ. You're gonna make a case for the Reds

354
00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:32,280
Speaker 4: in just a second. That's what would scare me if

355
00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,880
Speaker 4: if you are going to lay the goal with Liverpool

356
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Speaker 4: at home. Is that almost in like a backdoor cover

357
00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:40,400
Speaker 4: kind of sense that we see in college football all

358
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:43,520
Speaker 4: the time, that this IX team could go down to

359
00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:47,080
Speaker 4: nil and score, They're still going to give Liverpool trouble

360
00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,000
Speaker 4: going the other way three to one and get a

361
00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,840
Speaker 4: late goal or whatever. Because they are offensive. I don't

362
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:54,440
Speaker 4: want to call them a force or jugger not but

363
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Speaker 4: they are very strong offensively. They have good players. Stephen

364
00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:02,320
Speaker 4: Bergwind is this year's bad Air and I just can't

365
00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,399
Speaker 4: see Liverpool keeping them out, which is a little scary

366
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Speaker 4: and why I'm kind of leaning towards taking just the

367
00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:09,520
Speaker 4: number and taking a shot to see if Liverpool will

368
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Speaker 4: capitulate again in a tough matchup. But you're here to

369
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Speaker 4: tell us not so fast.

370
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Speaker 1: Yeah, not so fast, my friend. Yeah, I'm gonna make

371
00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:21,600
Speaker 1: a case here for Liverpool. So Thiago being back obviously

372
00:17:21,600 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 1: makes a big difference. And I agree with the anthony

373
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Speaker 1: that the problems at the back with tren Alexander Arnold,

374
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Speaker 1: you know, Knate still being out I think is a

375
00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:31,120
Speaker 1: big problem for Liverpool. I think he provides a lot

376
00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:33,520
Speaker 1: more athleticism along with Van Dyke that could really help

377
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,120
Speaker 1: them defensively. Matt Teep is a little bit older, Joe

378
00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:38,640
Speaker 1: go Omez just is not really a top tier center

379
00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 1: back to be pairing alongside Van Dyke. So those things

380
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,200
Speaker 1: do kind of worry me. But when is the last

381
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Speaker 1: time that I as truly played a top tier club

382
00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:50,000
Speaker 1: of Liverpool's stature, Because it wasn't in the Champions League

383
00:17:50,080 --> 00:17:52,080
Speaker 1: last year they were paired in a group with Bashitas

384
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,280
Speaker 1: Sporting Dortmunt and then they got beat by Benefica in

385
00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:57,480
Speaker 1: the round of sixteen. You have to go back two

386
00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,240
Speaker 1: years ago when they were paired in a group with Liverpool.

387
00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:03,320
Speaker 1: So Liverpool beat them over both meetings, won nothing, and

388
00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:06,119
Speaker 1: that was during Liverpool's injury crisis. And I went back

389
00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:08,080
Speaker 1: and looked at the lineups that they faced against those

390
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 1: i AX teams. Liverpool in the first meeting played a

391
00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:17,159
Speaker 1: midfield of James Milder, Curtis Jones and Will Maltham, and

392
00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 1: they had a center back pairing of Fabinho and Joe

393
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,000
Speaker 1: Gomes and they still beat him on nothing, beat him

394
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,680
Speaker 1: on XG. Then in the second meeting, the center back

395
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,640
Speaker 1: pairing was Joel Matt Tiep and Fabinho and they played

396
00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 1: a midfield of win Al Them Henderson and Curtis Jones.

397
00:18:30,680 --> 00:18:33,920
Speaker 1: So now they're gonna play in midfield of Thiago of Fabinho,

398
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,400
Speaker 1: They're gonna have Van Dijk back there, and they're still

399
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,040
Speaker 1: gonna have their wing backs. They're still gonna and they're

400
00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:40,440
Speaker 1: gonna have pretty much the same solid front three that

401
00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:43,040
Speaker 1: they've had for years, outside of obviously Saudiomane looks like

402
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 1: Diego jotis back. That obviously helps Liverpool quite a bit.

403
00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:49,720
Speaker 1: So my point is that if Liverpool, if the last

404
00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:52,600
Speaker 1: time i AS actually played a club of this level,

405
00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:56,679
Speaker 1: of this stature and really wasn't able to get at

406
00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:01,400
Speaker 1: a midfield of that midfield and that defense, what makes

407
00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:04,240
Speaker 1: you think that they're gonna do it to with the

408
00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:06,560
Speaker 1: players that they have now, I agree with you guys that,

409
00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,239
Speaker 1: like it is scary taking Liverpool minus one, like they

410
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:11,960
Speaker 1: haven't looked that great start the season. I think Fiago

411
00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,320
Speaker 1: getting back, it's not gonna just be like an automatic switch,

412
00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 1: like they're gonna be good again. But I still have

413
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:18,480
Speaker 1: questions with his i AX team, and I think to

414
00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:20,600
Speaker 1: Anthony's point, like, I think he has more to do

415
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Speaker 1: with the fact that Rangers is just bad, that they've

416
00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:24,560
Speaker 1: lost a couple of good players and that they just

417
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:28,359
Speaker 1: got overrun by a good IAX team at home. But

418
00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,280
Speaker 1: then again, I'm like, has IX played anybody like to

419
00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 1: that level in two years? I don't think so. So

420
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,920
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Liverpool. I'm gonna bet on the fact

421
00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 1: that i as hasn't played a team of this stature,

422
00:19:39,840 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 1: of this level, of this talent for over two years,

423
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:44,879
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna hope to God that that Liverpool can

424
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Speaker 1: find something. I'm taking a minus one.

425
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Speaker 4: The other group A match is Wednesday postponed to Wednesday

426
00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 4: because of policing concerns in Scotland. A lot of police

427
00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 4: are all over the country. I guess to make sure

428
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,919
Speaker 4: that everyone is paying respect to Queen Elizabeth. So this

429
00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:04,560
Speaker 4: is a Wednesday afternoon game. Rangers plus three thirty three

430
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 4: at home, Napoli odds on minus one thirty four on

431
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 4: the road. The draw here is three to one. Yeah,

432
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 4: I tried to tell you guys that Rangers were maybe

433
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:16,639
Speaker 4: not that good. They that's two, that's two, that's two.

434
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 4: Four zero losses in a row on the spin for

435
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 4: the Teddy Bears, one to Celtic and then last week

436
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:26,639
Speaker 4: to IAX. So maybe they're just one of the weaker

437
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 4: teams of the competition. They do come into the tournament

438
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:32,359
Speaker 4: with like a reputation of being able to kind of

439
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 4: smash and grab, sit back and counter, which should be

440
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 4: okay against Napoli. Like that's I think the draw here

441
00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 4: is worth a shot. At three to one, you're gonna

442
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:44,680
Speaker 4: get a little total. It's two decent defensive sides, obviously,

443
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 4: one in a completely different statusphere than the other. Napoli

444
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,440
Speaker 4: three point six expectacles allowed in six matches in Syria

445
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 4: this season, four wins, two draws and no losses, four

446
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:58,320
Speaker 4: goals allowed. On those three point six expected they were

447
00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 4: also the best defensive team in Syria last year. There's

448
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 4: definitely gonna be a significant home field advantage for Rangers

449
00:21:05,520 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 4: as well, like going to the Eyebrocks first Champions League

450
00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 4: group stage match in ten years or so for the

451
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 4: Teddy Bears, Like the Screams draw, I mean the Screams

452
00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:16,159
Speaker 4: Rangers sitting back, digging their heels in and giving Napoli

453
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 4: the ball and not being able to generate much going forward.

454
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 4: So I'm gonna be there. I'm gonna be on the

455
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 4: draw three to one bet three sixty five. B J.

456
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:25,119
Speaker 4: What do you have here?

457
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I have value on Rangers, but it's hard,

458
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:32,000
Speaker 1: like there's they were really bad against IAKS, like really

459
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 1: really bad, and I did not expect that after the

460
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 1: Europa League run they had last season, and I listen,

461
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 1: they did kind of luck box with their way through that.

462
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 1: But at plus one on the road at IAKS for

463
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 1: losing all those players, and you can't blame us for

464
00:21:43,840 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 1: taking the Rangers there. Yeah, it turns out, it turns

465
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,719
Speaker 1: out we were wrong. They might have had that as

466
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,840
Speaker 1: their best bet for the whole, for the whole, right,

467
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,680
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, Alfredo Morelos didn't play like you know,

468
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 1: he's been kind of in an out of lineup, which

469
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 1: that obviously hurts Rangers attack that you know, maybe just

470
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 1: losing Calvin Vassie and Joe Ribo like has a drastic

471
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,200
Speaker 1: effect on Rangers team, Like maybe they just were very

472
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 1: reliant on those guys. And then you know, I'll be

473
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 1: the first one to raise my hands sad and watch

474
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 1: that much Scottish Premier League last season, So maybe those

475
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:16,960
Speaker 1: guys just had a big effect. But again, you know,

476
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 1: to your point, like Napoli minus one thirty on the road,

477
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 1: I don't care how good they've looked a Sirea are,

478
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 1: how badly they beat Liverpool, Like, there's just there's no

479
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 1: way I'm betting Napoli at that number. They're just drastically

480
00:22:27,240 --> 00:22:30,600
Speaker 1: overvalued on the road. So if if Rangers gets to

481
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 1: plus one, I might dabble again. Oh yeah, But other

482
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 1: than that, I'm gonna pass for one match on Rangers

483
00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 1: just I want to see one more match, Like I

484
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 1: want to find out are they truly this bad or

485
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 1: was it just one match on the road against Diaks,

486
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 1: Like I need to figure out what's going on with them.

487
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 4: It's gonna be similar to that that Celtic match where

488
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 4: it's it's if you're gonna watch the first five minutes

489
00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 4: of any match. You're gonna want to watch this one

490
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 4: for the atmosphere, But I think other than that, it

491
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,200
Speaker 4: could be a pretty boring match because I just think

492
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:01,640
Speaker 4: Giovan Bronk course is gonna set up a big blue

493
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 4: bus in Glasgow. Anthony Andy quick thoughts on NAPOLEI and Rangers.

494
00:23:06,280 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 2: I mean, look, if you had to lineup the most

495
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 2: impressive and the least impressive performance of the entire first

496
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 2: match week, you would probably say that Napoli was the

497
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,639
Speaker 2: most impressive. They put up over four expected goals in

498
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,520
Speaker 2: one half against Liverpool, and you would probably say that

499
00:23:19,600 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 2: Rangers were the worst. And so you know, in terms

500
00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 2: of buying high and selling low, that's exactly what you'd

501
00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:28,560
Speaker 2: be doing if you were betting Napoli in this match

502
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 2: is some odds on road favorite, and the market did

503
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 2: move quite a bit. This is closer to even money.

504
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 2: Now you're getting minus one twenty five. So no interest

505
00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 2: in Napoli here. It's Rangers or nothing. It's going to

506
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 2: be nothing. So that's that's where I'm at on this one.

507
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,920
Speaker 4: All right, let's saunter over to a group beat match

508
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 4: between Leverkusen plus one eighty seven at Bet three sixty five.

509
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:55,720
Speaker 4: They're home to our boys Atletico Madrid, now forty five

510
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 4: on the road. The draw here is plus two forty

511
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 4: the Champions League. It just throws up so many beautiful

512
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:07,560
Speaker 4: images throughout the entire kind of journey, and we already

513
00:24:07,640 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 4: might have got the best one, which was Diego Simeoni

514
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 4: sprinting down the sideline in the eleventh minute of stoppage

515
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 4: time in match week one to celebrate with his team.

516
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:18,119
Speaker 4: And it also brings up the point where I mean,

517
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 4: I let it go. Madrid probably plays more stoppage time

518
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,320
Speaker 4: than any team in the.

519
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 1: Euro Yeah, mention that was the work under two and

520
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: a half was like the wors that's the worst beautiful time.

521
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 4: So I let he wins two to one against Porto,

522
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,200
Speaker 4: all three goals in stoppage time, uh.

523
00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 3: Porto the second time that's happened to Porto and eighty

524
00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 3: first minute red card they scored on a penalty the

525
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 3: Portuguese did, and it just was it was just mastering

526
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 3: the dark arts has become a cliche now in soccer,

527
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 3: but it is what Simeoni does and he just kind

528
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 3: of bless him.

529
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 2: We love him so much.

530
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 4: On the show Leverkusen one one at six in the Bunusesliga.

531
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 4: That's Windrow lost, so six losses out of their first eight.

532
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,440
Speaker 4: They are in the relegation battle as is right now,

533
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 4: and some of those losses. One of them came to Elversburg,

534
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,800
Speaker 4: which is a third division excuse. They're one at six

535
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 4: and all competitions, and they have losses to Elversburg, a

536
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 4: third division German side, Alsberg and brush Now, who they

537
00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 4: lost to in the opening round of the Champions League.

538
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 4: This is what we get for spending the first six

539
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:24,640
Speaker 4: months of last season saying that Leverkusen are a fade team.

540
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:26,200
Speaker 4: They luck box their way, and then they started to

541
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 4: get better, and then now all of a sudden we

542
00:25:27,920 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 4: started to get back in out of them. They're just

543
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 4: now one one at six and all competitions. This is

544
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 4: something else. I've got nothing here. This is the strangest

545
00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 4: matchup I think on the board in terms of the

546
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 4: way it's lined the two teams, the dark arts that

547
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 4: will be at play here for both sides. So I'm

548
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 4: going to be sitting this one out BJ Buyer. We're

549
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 4: at Letty.

550
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,600
Speaker 1: I'm taking that Letty purely just numbers play for me,

551
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 1: I have value a little bit of value on Atltic

552
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 1: Go Madrid, John no Bett. I mean, this is Laverrakusen team.

553
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 1: They're just so frustrating, Like you can say they've been

554
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: unlucky in the Bundeslig, Like the match against Bruce was

555
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 1: just because I had liver Becuz it's just so frustrating

556
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,360
Speaker 1: to watch, like they were giving up way too many

557
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,000
Speaker 1: chances to BRUEs, Like they only created one expectable. I

558
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 1: understand they had one fart off by a toenail, but

559
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: like it's just this team just doesn't have it right now,

560
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,119
Speaker 1: Like they're only at a plus one expectable deferentially, they

561
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 1: just drew with hurt the Berlin Over the weekend they

562
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 1: got beat on XG by a relegation team in the Bundesliga.

563
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 1: I mean, say what you will about Athletico and like

564
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:30,320
Speaker 1: Anthony has, but they were last season like on actually

565
00:26:30,640 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 1: one of the best defensive teams in Europe. There were

566
00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 1: point seventy three non penalty XG per ninety. This season

567
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,479
Speaker 1: they're at point eighty five. You can say they got

568
00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,199
Speaker 1: lucky against Porto, that's fine. Like you can say that

569
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,159
Speaker 1: they've struggled in the Champions League. That's fine, But if

570
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,199
Speaker 1: I'm showing value on Athletico, I'm gonna take them, and

571
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: especially against this Leverkusen team, who I am just done with.

572
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 1: So I'm taking Athletico Grono bet at minus one thirty

573
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 1: and like you said, Michael, this is just gonna be

574
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 1: one of the dumbest matches of the week.

575
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 4: What Atletico does is they put themselves in position to

576
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 4: take advantage of their luck because they're always hanging around well, I.

577
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 1: Mean a better matchup for a counter attack Athleoty team

578
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:07,200
Speaker 1: to play. I mean this Levercuse team, they just they're

579
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,480
Speaker 1: so open all the time and they just get beat

580
00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,199
Speaker 1: so many times on the counter. So yeah, this is

581
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 1: more running down the touch line.

582
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 2: Dare I say I like the under Can I do

583
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 2: it again? Can I do it again?

584
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 4: After last week? Yeah?

585
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 1: Why not?

586
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 2: I lean toward the under here. I understand lever Cousins

587
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 2: underperformed relatively, but I think this is a good matchup

588
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,399
Speaker 2: for them to struggle in an attack. You mentioned it,

589
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,560
Speaker 2: bj I don't like it, Letty, but their defense is good.

590
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:34,000
Speaker 2: I'm not going to deny that. But let's look at

591
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:36,240
Speaker 2: what we've seen from this Atletico attack which has been

592
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 2: embarrassingly bad. Three penalty box shots against Porto, two of

593
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 2: which they scored, of course, one of which deflected up

594
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 2: over the goalieue uh not mad though. Two deep pass

595
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 2: completions uh in the match against Porto and look and

596
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:52,360
Speaker 2: look this.

597
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 1: Is what he does.

598
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 2: We could say, we could say that, you know, this

599
00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 2: is like a weird result in fluke thing. But then

600
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:05,199
Speaker 2: they went back into Spain and this weekend what did

601
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 2: they do? Does anybody know.

602
00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 1: They've played them a ganger against South to Vigo they did, but.

603
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 2: Very fortunate once again, scorings off of about one and

604
00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 2: a half expected. So you know, you look at this

605
00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 2: and you go back and you can look at some

606
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,199
Speaker 2: of the other results, the road winning Catafe. There's been

607
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:23,919
Speaker 2: a lot of fortunate results thus far this season. They

608
00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:28,160
Speaker 2: produced nine nine goals from like six point two ish

609
00:28:28,359 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 2: in the league and they've conceded four from about five

610
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 2: ish expected allowed. So again they're running well here. They

611
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 2: ran really well against Porto, got dominated in that match,

612
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 2: So I could make the case for the under that

613
00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 2: would be the only play here for me. I think

614
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 2: you're right, Bja, and that the counter attacking and opportunities

615
00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 2: for Simone here are endless and uh, look it's what

616
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 2: Simoni does. Sure, but give him, give him his due Jesus,

617
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 2: you know you.

618
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:56,880
Speaker 4: Say it over and over and over again, like every year.

619
00:28:56,920 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 4: It's that Letty are fortunate. There's something else at play here.

620
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 2: Uh, I mean they were they fortunate. I mean they

621
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 2: they went out in the Champions League when we all

622
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 2: thought they would they last.

623
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 4: Year and the year before that.

624
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 2: Then they got pasted in the Champions League.

625
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 4: They lost like they lost one nil in the Champions

626
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 4: League in the most impressive performance of the entire.

627
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 2: But the whole thing was that they're supposed to win

628
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 2: without great performance, Like that's the thing. Everything we always

629
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 2: credit him no matter what happens. Yeah, and so that's

630
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:25,200
Speaker 2: that's why.

631
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:25,760
Speaker 4: What else?

632
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:26,479
Speaker 1: What else are you gonna do?

633
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 2: I don't need to do this again. I like the

634
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 2: lad the under I'll be fading and Letty going forward.

635
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 2: Uh not sure when, because the opportunities don't look great,

636
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,320
Speaker 2: but there will be opportunities coming. Although I think we've

637
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 2: got a again, got a Madrid Darby right this weekend,

638
00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:42,360
Speaker 2: so I guess I will not be fitting that.

639
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 4: The other the other Group B match, we'll talk about

640
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 4: this from quickly minus two seventy five on Porto at

641
00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 4: home hosting Bruges eight to one draw here is plus

642
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:57,320
Speaker 4: three seventy five. Like you said, Porto lost two to

643
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 4: one to let it go Madrid, all three goals coming

644
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 4: in stoppage time. In their Champions League opener, Bruges defeated

645
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 4: Leverkusen despite losing the extra bat a little bit, but

646
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 4: I don't think that that really fairly explains how that

647
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 4: match went. I thought they were impressive. Nothing for me here, Anthony,

648
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 4: right back to you for your play on Porto and Bruges.

649
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I like the under here too. Porto

650
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 2: last season was one of the biggest over performers, not

651
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 2: just in Portugal but in all of Europe when you

652
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,479
Speaker 2: run their expected goals to their actual goals. They had

653
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 2: a ton of weird situational game states in Portugal where

654
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 2: they ran up scores late. Okay, but they were They're

655
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 2: a major underaggression candidate, and we saw again this team

656
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:46,280
Speaker 2: is not really built necessarily to play against decent defensive sides.

657
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 2: And I'm not going to make the case that Bruges

658
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 2: is a great defensive side, but I was pretty encouraged

659
00:30:50,520 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: by what they did to Levercuz and Leverkusen over one

660
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:54,960
Speaker 2: and a half expected threat, but only turned that into

661
00:30:55,000 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 2: about point seven five XG. I know there was you know,

662
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 2: the Viar controversies, of course, but I thought Bruges were

663
00:31:01,200 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 2: never in a moment in that game that I feel

664
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 2: like Bruges we're on the verge of conceding or getting

665
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 2: overrun or overwhelmed. Now that may change as they go

666
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 2: on the road to Portugal, but Portugal's attack is not

667
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 2: good enough for them to be this big of a favorite,

668
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 2: and so I leaned toward the under in this game.

669
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 2: I do think Bruge will struggle to score against Porto's

670
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 2: very good defense, but this this will be a lean

671
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 2: to the under for me.

672
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,640
Speaker 4: Beacha, you're going to loop Porto in with another team

673
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 4: we already talked about.

674
00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to do a Porto into parlay. You

675
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:31,400
Speaker 1: can get you know, you probably is two together. You

676
00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 1: can get him at minus one oh five. You know,

677
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 1: we already talked about Porto and LOGI were against Athletico,

678
00:31:35,400 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 1: but I mean this club Bruges team there I mentioned

679
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: in the last part. They were only a plus zero

680
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 1: point four to nine XT gw differential in Belgium last year,

681
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 1: Like that's that the thirteenth best league in Europe, Like

682
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 1: that's really really bad. And this is also you know,

683
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 1: by expected gold of frenchill I mean Porto. They were

684
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 1: a full goal better than Bruges last season and playing

685
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 1: in a much more difficult league. So there is value

686
00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 1: I believe in taking Portal minus one and a half.

687
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 1: But they're also very similar style play to Athletico, whereas

688
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: if they get up one nothing, they're just going to

689
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 1: park the bus and camp out and take three points.

690
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 1: So I agree with Anthony that I don't think that

691
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:16,080
Speaker 1: Leverkusen dominated that match at all. I thought that Bruges

692
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 1: was very threatening on the counter attack, but they're now

693
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 1: facing one of the best defensive sides outside of the

694
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:24,880
Speaker 1: Europe's Big five. So and I'm very, very terrified of

695
00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 1: a Portal one to zero win and taking the minus

696
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 1: one and a half. So instead, I'm gonna loop them

697
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 1: in with Enter, Like we already talked about how much

698
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 1: we love Enter, So I'm gonna parlay of those two

699
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 1: and bring it down to minus one oh five.

700
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 4: Hey, let's stick around Portugal, why don't we Sporting Lisbeth

701
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,720
Speaker 4: they are plus two seventy five at bet three six five.

702
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 4: They're at home hosting Spurs odds on minus one oh six.

703
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 1: The draw here is.

704
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,280
Speaker 4: Plus two to sixty. This is the twelve forty five

705
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 4: pm kickoff on Tuesday afternoon. Spurs expectacle differential on the

706
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 4: season now is at plus zero point seven to seven.

707
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 4: Pretty impressive. They their defensive has been great zero point

708
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 4: eight expectacles allowed combined. Granted the competition was Fulham and Marseille,

709
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 4: but still pretty good. Sporting coming off a three nil

710
00:33:10,480 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 4: win against Frankfurt and their opener, So these are the

711
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 4: two teams at the top of the group. Stylistically, I

712
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 4: like sportings chances here Spurs, they just they're going to

713
00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 4: be the team that you want to bet on against

714
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 4: more adventurous sides, teams that were going to have the ball.

715
00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 4: They're going to press an at least base behind. We

716
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 4: say it over and over and over again. Harry Kane

717
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 4: running in, Son running in, with Charleston juggling the ball

718
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 4: and then running in. It's just this is not the

719
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:36,800
Speaker 4: easiest matchup I think for Tottenham going on the road

720
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 4: here as an odds on favorite, so I think I

721
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 4: will take the number on Sporting and play into that styles,

722
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 4: make fights narrative. Anthony as the Spurs tragic slash Liverpool

723
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 4: fan on the show What do you have to say?

724
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, as far as the game goes. I actually had

725
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 2: a lovely discussion last night at a bar in Philadelphia

726
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 2: where I ran into some Portuguese doctors who were in

727
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 2: town for a conference and I asked them. I said,

728
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 2: you know, you guys football fans and they said they

729
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 2: were Sporting Lisbon fans. So then we had a discussion

730
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 2: about the match on Tuesday. I told them I was

731
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,879
Speaker 2: a Spurs fan. They are not very confident. They think

732
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 2: Spurs are going to come into town and run them

733
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 2: on Tuesday, which was disappointed to hear. I thought they

734
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:18,840
Speaker 2: would be a little more optimistic. But Sporting have had

735
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:20,319
Speaker 2: a really bad start to the season. I know they

736
00:34:20,360 --> 00:34:24,280
Speaker 2: got a great result against Frankfurt in a pretty mediocre performance.

737
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 2: The game was very even, there wasn't a ton in it. Sporting,

738
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 2: you know, matched up some goals, good for them, but

739
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 2: they just don't look like a team who you know.

740
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 2: I know BJ likes them more than I do. Again,

741
00:34:36,080 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 2: I'm still not buying this Sporting Lisbon team dating back

742
00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 2: to last season. The defense is very good, though, and

743
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:45,520
Speaker 2: we saw from Spurs against Marseille that the chance creation

744
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 2: is still just a little bit off, and until the

745
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 2: red card happened, Spurs hadn't created squat. I mean they

746
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 2: were looking at you know, point three point four XG

747
00:34:53,360 --> 00:34:55,440
Speaker 2: at the time of the red card. And now, of

748
00:34:55,440 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 2: course the red card was a dog, so so you

749
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,480
Speaker 2: know someone was in behind. It could have easily been

750
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 2: one nil there anyway. But it kind of gets to

751
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 2: the point here, Lisbon is not going to be adventurous.

752
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,279
Speaker 2: They're not going to let Tottenham control or at least

753
00:35:07,280 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 2: get that space in behind that they so crave, and

754
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 2: so I would lean toward the under here. Again, I

755
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,200
Speaker 2: like a lot of unders on this board, and I

756
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 2: hate that so much in the Champions League because these

757
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 2: games just tend to get chaotic and it's always after

758
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 2: slow starts. You feel good at halftime and then everything

759
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 2: goes to shit and that's you know, sometimes stoppage time.

760
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,920
Speaker 2: But from an overall perspective, I do think Lisbon's attack

761
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 2: looks like they're worst than last year, and they didn't

762
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,840
Speaker 2: create much against Frankfurt, so I think all that points

763
00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:31,479
Speaker 2: me toward the end.

764
00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 4: Of b Jake, you're committing a cardinal sin here.

765
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I do like Sporting, but I agree

766
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 1: with Portuguese doctors. I don't really like them in this

767
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,880
Speaker 1: matchup against Tottenham. I mean, if you look at their

768
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 1: starts of the season, they got they got dominated by

769
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 1: Ports on the road, they drew with Braga and lost

770
00:35:48,160 --> 00:35:51,680
Speaker 1: on next year to them. They you know, they've they've

771
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,160
Speaker 1: lost to of their best midfielders and new Nays and

772
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:57,720
Speaker 1: you know Paulinya is gone now, so they look worse

773
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:00,360
Speaker 1: than the midfield Like, yes, they beat Frankfurt, but just

774
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:03,480
Speaker 1: from a mathematical perspective, like I mentioned last week, if

775
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 1: you take the Sporting team from last season that was

776
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:08,240
Speaker 1: a plus one point four actually differential for ninety minutes,

777
00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:11,399
Speaker 1: compare that to the Tottenham team under Conte, who's been

778
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,879
Speaker 1: about a plus one actually differential per niney minutes. Why

779
00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 1: I have England rated like a goal better than Portugal.

780
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 1: So even taking into home field advantage, I still have

781
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 1: Spurs somewhere around minus a half even minus point six.

782
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 1: So I actually have Tottenham at minus one thirty eight

783
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 1: in this one. So I actually I'm showing a little

784
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:31,400
Speaker 1: bit of value on Spurs. But like Anthony already mentioned,

785
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 1: like the match against Marseille, they didn't do anything before

786
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 1: the red card and it was kind of worrying that

787
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 1: they allowed Marseille to kind of control that game. They

788
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 1: should not be letting Marseille do that on their home turf.

789
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 1: So I don't know if Kante is starting to play

790
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 1: a little bit more passive counter attacking style and not

791
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 1: looking to dominate the ball as much. Maybe he's just

792
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:51,399
Speaker 1: that stylistly what he's going to try to do now.

793
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:53,719
Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm gonna end up passing on this one.

794
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 1: If Spurs hits even money, I'm gonna take him. But

795
00:36:56,160 --> 00:36:58,520
Speaker 1: other than that, I am passing on this one. Spurs

796
00:36:58,560 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 1: does have rest advantage too in this one, so I

797
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 1: have to mention that, which is big, especially when you're

798
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:04,839
Speaker 1: traveling on the road.

799
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, Spurs. Also, you know, City was minus one and

800
00:37:07,239 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 2: a half in this fixture last year, that was in February.

801
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 2: I feel like that's a pretty big drop off for

802
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,440
Speaker 2: Spurs to be this cheap, especially given the downgrades we

803
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 2: think that have come for this sporting team. So uh yeah,

804
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:23,240
Speaker 2: I don't love the way Tottenham's playing right now I'm still.

805
00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:25,879
Speaker 1: They should be able to dominate the midfield in this one.

806
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 1: They really should, but I don't know who knows.

807
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 2: It's a lot of times this year and it has

808
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:30,240
Speaker 2: not been the case.

809
00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 1: Yeah.

810
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,520
Speaker 4: Right, The last match we'll talk about on Tuesday is

811
00:37:35,719 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 4: Marseille minus one tenth who cares?

812
00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 1: Who cares?

813
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 2: It gets Marseille took more of my money on Saturday

814
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 2: and I was looking good. Leo went up one knowing

815
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 2: like a tenth minute and then Marseille Marseille. They scored

816
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 2: their next two shots.

817
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 1: No interesting, they should not air this match.

818
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 2: I'll be watching it because I need to watch Marseille

819
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 2: more because I'm there's we're missing something. I'm very convinced,

820
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,520
Speaker 2: you know, without to meet you Pie. It against lel

821
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:03,239
Speaker 2: no problem, two goals win.

822
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 4: I'll be on Frankfort here three to one.

823
00:38:05,920 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 2: At it's Frankfort and nothing.

824
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 4: Yeah. They're off to a pretty pedestrian start in the

825
00:38:11,120 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 4: Bundesliga and Marseille, like you said that, they're just winning

826
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 4: every table in France every time they step onto the

827
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 4: field in legual but out of respect for YouTube guys

828
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 4: as my my friends and and co hosts and colleagues,

829
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:26,479
Speaker 4: I'll be on Frankfort here, but then the numbers good enough.

830
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 4: Where would you say that these two teams are if

831
00:38:28,360 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 4: you put them next to each other on the vacuum, right,

832
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 4: like it's it's not this big. I think I think better, right,

833
00:38:34,640 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 4: but like this much better.

834
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 1: I don't know how we know how bad Frankfort is yet.

835
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 1: We'll find out together, to find out various score bangers.

836
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 4: We'll move on to Wednesday. We don't need to pay

837
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 4: it really is.

838
00:38:46,280 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 2: By the way, I'm surprised BJ isn't like a Marseille fan.

839
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,120
Speaker 2: I think if they ran, if they didn't cost them

840
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 2: as much money, he'd be a fan. Like they have

841
00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:58,799
Speaker 2: every Arsenal player reject like it's kind of funny there,

842
00:38:58,960 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 2: and everybody who everybody who Arteta has frozen out just

843
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 2: goes to the South of France, which, to be honest,

844
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:06,080
Speaker 2: you know that's not a bad place to be.

845
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, let's go to Wednesday before we do.

846
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:12,600
Speaker 4: Just a reminder. Wonder Goal is presented by BET three

847
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 4: six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign Up with

848
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:19,520
Speaker 4: promo code action to get BET three six five's exclusive

849
00:39:19,520 --> 00:39:22,279
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850
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,960
Speaker 4: dollar on any game and you get two hundred free

851
00:39:25,320 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 4: Chelsea minus two seventy five at home brand Potter in town.

852
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 4: At Stanford Bridge, they're taking on RB Salzburg plus six

853
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:37,719
Speaker 4: to fifty on the road to draw here is plus

854
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:42,960
Speaker 4: two forty plus four fifty. It's how can you? How

855
00:39:43,000 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 4: can you look at this Chelsea side? I get the

856
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 4: new manager bounce. We talked about on the show every

857
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 4: time a manager's fired that there is something to it.

858
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 4: A lot of it is just the team, you know,

859
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:55,200
Speaker 4: regressing positively or whatever, but there is something to the

860
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 4: new manager bounce. The numbers do bear it out. But

861
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 4: minus two seventy five on a team that last five

862
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:06,200
Speaker 4: matches two wins, three losses and a minus point two

863
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 4: expect a goal differential. And those results came against a

864
00:40:09,560 --> 00:40:13,360
Speaker 4: murderer's row of Leeds, Leicester, Saints, West Ham and Dinomo

865
00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:16,000
Speaker 4: Sagrip who they just lost to one nil. To send

866
00:40:16,040 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 4: Thomas tookel on his way out of London, this is

867
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 4: an easy pass for me, Anthony. What say you on

868
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 4: Graham Potter's Blues.

869
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean this is there's still two big injuries

870
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,760
Speaker 2: for Chelse and Golo Conte's out and now Edward Mendy

871
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:34,359
Speaker 2: has a knee injury. Doesn't look like he's going to Uh,

872
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,720
Speaker 2: We're not not sure necessarily if he's going to play.

873
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 2: He may have just had the out of form itis,

874
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:42,279
Speaker 2: but we'll see what Potter says. We don't know exactly know,

875
00:40:42,360 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 2: but I know that even in that great form, I'd

876
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 2: prefer him in the goal over Kepa, given that Keppa

877
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 2: has an extensive track record of just being bad. But

878
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 2: I don't necessarily think that the youth of Salsburg are

879
00:40:54,440 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 2: going to be intimidated or overrunning this match. Salzburg with

880
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 2: the better side against Milan. Now they go on the road,

881
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 2: they're catching a goal on half. Chelsea is the kind

882
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:05,760
Speaker 2: of team compared to say an RB Leipzig for example.

883
00:41:05,800 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 2: You know the two teams who too high profile teams

884
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:11,680
Speaker 2: who just changed managers because of struggling performances. I'm actually

885
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:13,920
Speaker 2: more optimistic in the short term about Leipzig and we'll

886
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:15,920
Speaker 2: talk about them in a minute than I am about Chelsea,

887
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:18,720
Speaker 2: because I think Chelsea's problems run a little bit deeper

888
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 2: than Tuckle. Potter system took time. Brighton did not become

889
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 2: Brighton overnight, and they became Brighton over the course of

890
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:32,280
Speaker 2: about six to eight months, and I think that complex

891
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:36,160
Speaker 2: possession system is different from what Tukel does, but it's

892
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 2: not that different in how they strangle possession and impress

893
00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 2: in certain ways. And I think Chelsea's problems are still

894
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 2: personnel more so than managers. So I like lean to

895
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:49,759
Speaker 2: Salisburg here pretty strongly, and I'm probably I'm going to

896
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 2: bet Salzburg plus one and a half because I just

897
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:55,359
Speaker 2: think that the market is anticipating a bounce back and

898
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 2: obviously Chelsea's still very good, but this market should probably

899
00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 2: be selling them a little bit right now given the

900
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:04,240
Speaker 2: performance to dip in the last two months.

901
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 4: I will say in Group E Milan minus three fifty

902
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 4: at home hosting Zagreb, like you said, off of that

903
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 4: famous win against Chelsea, they're eleven to one on the

904
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 4: money line at bet three six five. The draw here

905
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 4: is plus four to twenty five. That's a smash of

906
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:19,560
Speaker 4: grab for you, man. They did it at home one

907
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 4: nil win on a counter attack and made life really

908
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,320
Speaker 4: tough on the Blues on the road. That's what you

909
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 4: got to do when you're one of these teams coming

910
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 4: out of the lesser leagues and they accomplish that is

911
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:35,400
Speaker 4: going to be a lot tougher on the road in Milan.

912
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 4: Who are four wins two draws from six siri M

913
00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 4: matches with a plus six goal differential and the expected

914
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,520
Speaker 4: gold numbers is basically the same coming off a two

915
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 4: to one victory over Samdoria Harry Winks's side, it's just

916
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:52,960
Speaker 4: so weird to see him in that beautiful kit. But hey,

917
00:42:53,160 --> 00:42:54,799
Speaker 4: he's a good looking guy. It's a good looking kit,

918
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 4: so good for him. I got another thing here, either

919
00:42:57,200 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 4: the group by matches will be likely to be a

920
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 4: past maybe sprinkle on Salsburg if Anthony did kind of

921
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:06,439
Speaker 4: convince me there, bj what do you think more magic

922
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:07,360
Speaker 4: from zagrip here?

923
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we'll see a little bit more magic

924
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 1: from zagrip here. I mean they showed really a fantastic

925
00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 1: ability against Chelsea to essentially just sit deep, play a

926
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:19,320
Speaker 1: low block in defend. I mean they held Chelsea to

927
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 1: one expected goal on fifteen shots. They blocked eight of them.

928
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:24,960
Speaker 1: They had twenty one clearances. I mean, Michael, this is

929
00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:27,960
Speaker 1: like a power play defense in hockey. That's basically how

930
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,440
Speaker 1: they did. Now they lined up, you'll see their formation

931
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 1: lap as a three five two, but really what was

932
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:34,000
Speaker 1: just a five to three to two. It was just

933
00:43:34,160 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 1: very compact, didn't allow anything to go through the middle,

934
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:38,320
Speaker 1: and basically said hey, Chelsea, you're gonna have to go

935
00:43:38,360 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 1: out wide, You're gonna have to swing things in to

936
00:43:40,680 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 1: beat us, and Chelsea couldn't do it. So I'm not

937
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 1: so sure that Milan is going to be able to

938
00:43:45,680 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 1: do that either. And also, I mean, let's think, I mean,

939
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:50,840
Speaker 1: were only in the second match week, but for a

940
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:53,919
Speaker 1: club like Zagreb to get three points on match week

941
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 1: one against Chelsea, how else do you think they're going

942
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 1: to set up going to the San Zero Like they're

943
00:43:58,280 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: gonna go there to play for Zero's draw and to

944
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:02,160
Speaker 1: get one point to give them a better chance to

945
00:44:02,160 --> 00:44:04,439
Speaker 1: get into the knockout stage. And if you go back

946
00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:07,399
Speaker 1: to essentially, you know, over the last two seasons, they've

947
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 1: played five matches against Big five sides. They you know,

948
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 1: two matches against west Ham in the group stage, two

949
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,440
Speaker 1: matches against Sevilla in the Europa League knockout last year,

950
00:44:16,440 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 1: in the one match against Chelsea. They've only allowed five

951
00:44:18,840 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 1: point three expected goals in those five matches. So they've

952
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:24,920
Speaker 1: shown the ability to play very defensive and to be

953
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:27,480
Speaker 1: effective in doing so. I mean I mentioned it last

954
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:30,359
Speaker 1: week Milan they were only about a one point five

955
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: non penalty actually per ninety minute offense. They only created

956
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,799
Speaker 1: point nine against Salsburg. Like Anthony mentioned, they were not

957
00:44:35,840 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: the better side than that one. So you know, if

958
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:40,440
Speaker 1: they weren't be able to if they weren't able to

959
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 1: break down essentially a four to four to two from Salsburg.

960
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 1: And let's be honest, in Syria, odd they don't play

961
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 1: a lot of five to three to two, sip back,

962
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:52,239
Speaker 1: park the bush and try to break down a low block.

963
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: So I don't if they weren't able to do it

964
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:55,719
Speaker 1: against Salsburg, I don't didn't give me much confidence in

965
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 1: them doing it here. So you know, under two and

966
00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 1: half goals. Sitting at plus one twenty, I bet three

967
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:03,040
Speaker 1: six five. I only have two point three nine goals

968
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:05,239
Speaker 1: projected to this one, so I'm taking under two and

969
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:06,080
Speaker 1: a half goals.

970
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 2: I think it's interesting. You know, the question is we

971
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 2: know how we know how Zagreb is going to set

972
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 2: up but will be effective, and what you think of

973
00:45:14,239 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 2: their defensive performance against Chelsea is kind of depending on

974
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:19,840
Speaker 2: what you think of Chelsea. So in my opinion, you know.

975
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 2: I think Chelsea had one point eight expected threat, eighty

976
00:45:23,160 --> 00:45:27,880
Speaker 2: five percent field tilt, and Zagreb allowed them to complete

977
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:31,560
Speaker 2: twenty three deep completions. That's a sign of a team

978
00:45:31,600 --> 00:45:34,920
Speaker 2: at home who is struggling in the midfield and is

979
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,880
Speaker 2: not doing much to compete. And I understand that Milan

980
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 2: is an overrated team generally that we're looking to fade,

981
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:43,800
Speaker 2: but I'll be fading Milan when they go to Zagreb.

982
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:45,440
Speaker 2: That will not be fading them in this match. This

983
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 2: is a pass for me Group A.

984
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 4: Now, you guys know that I have nothing but love

985
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 4: for Carlo Ancelotti. Even if he he did leave Eward

986
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 4: in a spot a bother, I forgive him and he

987
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 4: earned my forgiveness with that Champions League final victory. Once

988
00:45:59,520 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 4: a blue a blue, Carlo Ancelotti, him and Real Madrid

989
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 4: are minus two hundred hosting RB Leipzig plus four to

990
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:08,640
Speaker 4: seventy five to draw here is plus three seventy five.

991
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 4: But the reason I open it like that is because

992
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:13,279
Speaker 4: I'm going to betting against Carlo Ancelotti here, just like

993
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 4: I did last week that went well when they pasted Celtic.

994
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:19,919
Speaker 4: We'll talk about them in a minute. Madrid is the

995
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 4: only team in the big five leagues of Europe with

996
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 4: an unblemished record. However, that's get Their schedule has been

997
00:46:27,960 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 4: basically a cakewalk. They are coming off a four to

998
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:33,399
Speaker 4: one win against Majorca and then the three nil win

999
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:39,600
Speaker 4: against Celtic. Meanwhile, Leipzig a new manager in town. Todsko's

1000
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 4: out Marco roses In. They greeted his arrival with a

1001
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 4: three nil win at Dortmund, his former club. Maybe they're

1002
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:50,720
Speaker 4: coming back. Maybe that's the new manager bounds. I like Leipzig.

1003
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 4: Here we talk about how Madrid is generally overrated by

1004
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 4: the market. I think that's the case here. I think

1005
00:46:57,239 --> 00:47:00,200
Speaker 4: you're buying in on a good spot for Lipzig, not

1006
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:02,879
Speaker 4: just with the new manager, but just you know, let's

1007
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,200
Speaker 4: not forget like the way they closed last season. They

1008
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 4: closed on a tourd run, stormed up the table, qualified

1009
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 4: for Champions League and we're the best team in the

1010
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 4: Bundesliga aside from Byron from January first on.

1011
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 1: So I think it's just a good spot.

1012
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 4: Sell high on Madrid even though they're perfect, even though

1013
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 4: I love Angelade, I'm in on Leipzig in the Marco

1014
00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 4: Rossa era. Anthony this year, boy, he's another handsome guy, though.

1015
00:47:29,200 --> 00:47:31,760
Speaker 2: Oh I love Marco. A great win for the boys.

1016
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 2: I'm backing on Leipsick again. You know, we've talked about

1017
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 2: them a good amount at this point. They conceded four

1018
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:40,439
Speaker 2: goals on five shots, man Like, I know we all

1019
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:42,359
Speaker 2: joked about shak Tar on the last pot, and then

1020
00:47:42,400 --> 00:47:44,319
Speaker 2: they went and did what they did. And you know,

1021
00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:46,719
Speaker 2: there were concerns defensively because a couple of those were

1022
00:47:46,760 --> 00:47:49,880
Speaker 2: big chances. But they conceded four goals on five shots

1023
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 2: and that's just ridiculous. Benzimo will not play, so I

1024
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 2: think that's definitely got to be factored in here. And

1025
00:47:56,360 --> 00:48:00,160
Speaker 2: I think when my numbers make this about right with

1026
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:03,000
Speaker 2: benz you take Ben's out, I have to bet Leipzig

1027
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:04,560
Speaker 2: plus one on the road here. I think this is

1028
00:48:04,600 --> 00:48:08,279
Speaker 2: a very competitive match. I don't see all that much.

1029
00:48:08,320 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 2: Of course, Madrid is the better team, but I don't

1030
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 2: see a huge gap here because the attack was so

1031
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:19,400
Speaker 2: centered around Veneties and Benzima that taking Benzema out of

1032
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 2: it a bunchly. I do love Veneties. I think he's

1033
00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 2: probably the most underrated player in the world, although not

1034
00:48:25,120 --> 00:48:28,520
Speaker 2: as much anymore he was. But I think that there's

1035
00:48:28,600 --> 00:48:31,360
Speaker 2: not that much between these two teams, and Leipzig's defense

1036
00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:34,439
Speaker 2: should improve under the Rosa system. And I actually think

1037
00:48:34,560 --> 00:48:36,879
Speaker 2: when you think about Madrid and what they've had issues with,

1038
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:41,239
Speaker 2: Rosa was notorious at Dortmund, excuse me, at Glodbach before

1039
00:48:41,239 --> 00:48:43,439
Speaker 2: he went to Dortmund. As soon as they win the ball,

1040
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 2: two or three guys are going to run in and

1041
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,520
Speaker 2: I think running behind, and they're going to immediately look

1042
00:48:48,760 --> 00:48:51,000
Speaker 2: to play in behind. That is the kind of system

1043
00:48:51,000 --> 00:48:53,319
Speaker 2: that can give Madrid problems. That is the kind of

1044
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:56,120
Speaker 2: system with somebody like a Timo Werner that I'm very

1045
00:48:56,120 --> 00:48:58,839
Speaker 2: excited to see what looks like in practice. Now. They

1046
00:48:58,920 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 2: kind of just dominated the match Chickenst Dortmann. They didn't

1047
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:02,560
Speaker 2: really have that kind of problem. They won't be not

1048
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:04,239
Speaker 2: that that will not be the case in this match,

1049
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:07,240
Speaker 2: but I had this match circled anyway to bet Leipzig.

1050
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 2: I think we're getting a slightly better number because of

1051
00:49:09,560 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 2: how poor Leipzig have been and how good Real have been.

1052
00:49:12,080 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 2: But the loss of Benzema is a big one. I

1053
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:18,719
Speaker 2: know they scored four goals today against Majorca, but three

1054
00:49:18,800 --> 00:49:21,040
Speaker 2: of them came in the final eight minutes ten minutes

1055
00:49:21,560 --> 00:49:24,399
Speaker 2: and at least two of them came in stoppage time,

1056
00:49:25,040 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 2: and the opportunity for Madrid to run up to score

1057
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,839
Speaker 2: late will always be there. But one more time we're

1058
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 2: gonna fade Madrid. This actually get my second time of

1059
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:37,920
Speaker 2: the season. So I think this is a good matchup

1060
00:49:37,960 --> 00:49:39,640
Speaker 2: for Leipzig with the new manager.

1061
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 1: I think the major point here for Madrid is they

1062
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 1: don't have another true striker behind Benzima. Like it's they're

1063
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 1: very real. They're like you mentioned, they're very reliant.

1064
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:48,680
Speaker 2: And Hazard came in.

1065
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:51,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean Hazard was started up front for Real

1066
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 1: Madrid against my Orca likes good to get Celtic by

1067
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 1: the way, I mean he was, but like the downgrade

1068
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 1: from Benzima to Hazard right yet at this given juncture

1069
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:05,919
Speaker 1: is pretty drastic. So I mean, I agree with you guys.

1070
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:08,319
Speaker 1: If I can get I mean, I'll probably end up

1071
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 1: playing Leipzig. I'm hoping that people see, like you said, Michael,

1072
00:50:11,719 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 1: the great start for Real Madrid, the three nothing went

1073
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 1: over Celtic, even though they weren't that good for the

1074
00:50:16,200 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 1: first fifty minutes. I hope people see that and we

1075
00:50:19,239 --> 00:50:21,200
Speaker 1: can get a little steam on this and maybe get

1076
00:50:21,280 --> 00:50:23,319
Speaker 1: Leipzig plus one and a half at a decent numbers.

1077
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:25,560
Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait until till match time, but I'll.

1078
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:25,839
Speaker 2: Be with you guys.

1079
00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:26,760
Speaker 1: I'll probably be on Liipzig.

1080
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 4: All right, let's talk about Celtic. This is the twelve

1081
00:50:29,800 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 4: forty five pm kickoff in Group A shock Dar dynask.

1082
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:35,440
Speaker 4: They are home, but they're playing in Poland because of

1083
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:38,440
Speaker 4: the award in Ukraine. There plus two twenty at bet

1084
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:41,120
Speaker 4: three six five Celtic plus one twenty road favorite, the

1085
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 4: draw plus two p fifty. It was a shockdar shocker

1086
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 4: over Leipzig four to one. The expectacles don't come close

1087
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:51,000
Speaker 4: to reading that score. Like Anthony said, four goals on

1088
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 4: five shots a goalkeeper Haller so impressive. Nonetheless, by the way,

1089
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:59,760
Speaker 4: on the road to do that. Celtic, like bj just noted,

1090
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 4: they hit the post. They were all over Real Madrid

1091
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 4: to start that game, feeding off the crowd, and they're

1092
00:51:08,160 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 4: just a brave side under a post doc Colu. I

1093
00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 4: can never pronounce his name, the Australian Greek manager who

1094
00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:18,919
Speaker 4: we all love. So that three zero loss doesn't deter

1095
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:22,880
Speaker 4: me from thinking that Celtic are probably better then everybody

1096
00:51:23,640 --> 00:51:27,759
Speaker 4: would think just judging by the score line. So it

1097
00:51:27,760 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 4: would be Celtic or nothing here, but the number is

1098
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:35,600
Speaker 4: just a little short for me going to Poland. This

1099
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 4: is a strange tuition is if Celtic do have ambitions

1100
00:51:40,200 --> 00:51:42,680
Speaker 4: of getting through this group, it does feel a little

1101
00:51:43,200 --> 00:51:46,080
Speaker 4: bit of a must win here, so that could play

1102
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:46,640
Speaker 4: into it a bit.

1103
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 1: BJ What do you have, Yeah, I'm going to take

1104
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:52,759
Speaker 1: Celtic plus one twenty. So, like I already mentioned, I

1105
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 1: thought they were really good through the first fifty minutes.

1106
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:58,239
Speaker 1: Then you know, one big chance the Venetias puts it

1107
00:51:58,280 --> 00:52:00,319
Speaker 1: away and they kind of became a little bit open

1108
00:52:00,440 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 1: try to get back in the game, and Real Madrid

1109
00:52:02,280 --> 00:52:04,759
Speaker 1: kind of punched them on the counter. But you look

1110
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 1: at the final box score, I mean they only got

1111
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 1: out I mean obviously actually was you know, two and

1112
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:09,600
Speaker 1: a half to one point one because of the big

1113
00:52:09,719 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 1: chances from Real Madrid, but they only got out shot

1114
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:16,279
Speaker 1: ten to thirteen. They actually out touched Madrid in the

1115
00:52:16,320 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 1: penalty area twenty nine to twenty three. Box entries were

1116
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,359
Speaker 1: fourteen to fourteen. I mean, it's just they weren't as

1117
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 1: bad as the final score line, you know indicated, and

1118
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,840
Speaker 1: they already mentioned I mean Shacktar, I mean, listen, we

1119
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:29,400
Speaker 1: talked ourselves into that we were just too big a

1120
00:52:29,480 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 1: cowards to play it. I mean four coholes off of

1121
00:52:33,360 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 1: five shots ectually was Leipzig one on actually one point

1122
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 1: five to one point two, held sixty eight percent possession

1123
00:52:40,400 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 1: and Leipzig had forty one touches in the penalty are

1124
00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:47,239
Speaker 1: compared to just five for Shocktar. So the uh maybe

1125
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:50,880
Speaker 1: probably the most was ugly. Yeah, probably the most misleading

1126
00:52:50,920 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 1: score line maybe I've seen in a really long time

1127
00:52:53,640 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 1: in the Champions League. And like you already mentioned by

1128
00:52:56,640 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 1: two one. Yeah, the sheriff too.

1129
00:52:58,239 --> 00:52:58,359
Speaker 3: One.

1130
00:52:58,440 --> 00:53:01,400
Speaker 1: That's another one. This is a neutral field game, and

1131
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:03,640
Speaker 1: war sow I mean Celtic fans I assume would travel

1132
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:07,200
Speaker 1: pretty well. If we look at UEFA coefficients, I mean,

1133
00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 1: Ukraine and Scotland are pretty much dead. Even so, if

1134
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:15,279
Speaker 1: you take the Shaktar squad, the full strength squad from

1135
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:17,440
Speaker 1: last year before they lost all their players, like right

1136
00:53:17,520 --> 00:53:20,200
Speaker 1: up until essentially their league got stopped because of the war,

1137
00:53:20,640 --> 00:53:23,280
Speaker 1: they were a plus one point twenty five actually differential

1138
00:53:23,320 --> 00:53:25,959
Speaker 1: for ninety minutes. Well, Celtic in the scotsh Mere League

1139
00:53:26,160 --> 00:53:29,279
Speaker 1: was one point sixty five, so essentially essentiallyo point four

1140
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:32,759
Speaker 1: goals better. Then you have to downgrade Shocktar obviously because

1141
00:53:32,760 --> 00:53:35,239
Speaker 1: of all the players that they lost, so especially playing

1142
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:37,879
Speaker 1: in the sun neutral field. I have Celtic at minus

1143
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:40,239
Speaker 1: one sixteen. I think they're a little bit undervalued, so

1144
00:53:40,760 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 1: I'm going to take them at plus one twenty.

1145
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 2: I have no bet on this match, but Shact had

1146
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:46,560
Speaker 2: a four point six percent field till. That is the

1147
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 2: lowest I've ever seen. So that is that is just

1148
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:52,279
Speaker 2: attacking area touches, final third touches for once.

1149
00:53:52,360 --> 00:53:54,400
Speaker 1: It was I mean it was a mistaker, yeah, I

1150
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:55,720
Speaker 1: mean Roberts made a mistake.

1151
00:53:55,960 --> 00:53:58,040
Speaker 2: Shacktar went up in the first minute, right or second minute,

1152
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:01,759
Speaker 2: but that's instead it's incredible and the X threat for

1153
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 2: Shacktar was point five. They held thirty two percent of

1154
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:08,839
Speaker 2: the ball and got deep completions was twenty three to three.

1155
00:54:09,040 --> 00:54:12,120
Speaker 2: So you know, I'm not going to overreact. The game

1156
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:14,359
Speaker 2: got too dusk. Go fired. It would be better long

1157
00:54:14,440 --> 00:54:16,800
Speaker 2: term because now they have a better manager. But otherwise,

1158
00:54:18,320 --> 00:54:20,560
Speaker 2: don't buy the Shacktar hype. Don't be the guy who says, oh,

1159
00:54:20,560 --> 00:54:22,719
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet them now and then they lose. So

1160
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:24,040
Speaker 2: this is a bad team.

1161
00:54:25,920 --> 00:54:28,280
Speaker 4: This is probably the match of the day On Wednesday,

1162
00:54:29,200 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 4: Man City minus five point fifty at home against brushat

1163
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 4: Dortmund fourteen to one on the money line at be

1164
00:54:34,280 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 4: thirty sixty five.

1165
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:36,440
Speaker 1: The draw here is plus.

1166
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:40,680
Speaker 4: Six point fifty. Do you guys think Crystal Palace is

1167
00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:41,840
Speaker 4: better than Brusha Dortmund.

1168
00:54:42,719 --> 00:54:42,759
Speaker 1: No?

1169
00:54:43,320 --> 00:54:46,560
Speaker 4: No, this was the line for Palace at City earlier

1170
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:49,839
Speaker 4: this year, So it's just an interesting data point here.

1171
00:54:49,960 --> 00:54:52,480
Speaker 4: I think Doortmann's worth a little bit of a bet. Obviously,

1172
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:54,319
Speaker 4: you know they're not gonna win. They're fourteen to one

1173
00:54:54,360 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 4: on the money line. It's pretty unlikely. But we've seen

1174
00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:01,600
Speaker 4: at a city that there are are some flaws that

1175
00:55:01,719 --> 00:55:07,000
Speaker 4: can be exposed going towards the city goal. They've had

1176
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:09,680
Speaker 4: some they've given up goals late goals, they've lost from

1177
00:55:09,719 --> 00:55:12,560
Speaker 4: winning positions, or they've lost points from winning positions. They've

1178
00:55:13,360 --> 00:55:16,400
Speaker 4: drawn with Newcastle of Drum with Bill like they can

1179
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:20,759
Speaker 4: be had, and like I said, like you're looking at

1180
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 4: the same line for Crystal Palace and Brusha Dortmund on

1181
00:55:24,560 --> 00:55:28,840
Speaker 4: the road at City. Dortmund are at a rest disadvantage

1182
00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:31,400
Speaker 4: of course with the Premier League being canceled, so you

1183
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:34,319
Speaker 4: can factor that in a little bit. But I don't mind.

1184
00:55:34,560 --> 00:55:38,000
Speaker 4: I think I'll be on U Dortmund, which it's not

1185
00:55:38,040 --> 00:55:39,560
Speaker 4: gonna be a fun bet to make, but I think

1186
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:42,200
Speaker 4: the one that you two like is even less fun,

1187
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:44,520
Speaker 4: so little fun.

1188
00:55:44,680 --> 00:55:45,759
Speaker 2: I love Under three and a half.

1189
00:55:46,360 --> 00:55:49,440
Speaker 1: I do too. I'm so looking forward to watching Holland

1190
00:55:49,520 --> 00:55:51,040
Speaker 1: just score four goals right in our face.

1191
00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 2: Bj wle to go first.

1192
00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:56,200
Speaker 1: Sure, I mean this is I mean, this is too high.

1193
00:55:56,400 --> 00:55:59,840
Speaker 1: I mean we have Anthony's mentioned many times, but we

1194
00:56:00,040 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 1: have a Dortmant attack that's basically Anthony Madest who is

1195
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:06,960
Speaker 1: just not a Dortmund level striker. Like, yes, he was

1196
00:56:07,000 --> 00:56:09,600
Speaker 1: good at col Own, but in the current system he's

1197
00:56:09,680 --> 00:56:13,279
Speaker 1: just not that good. And I mean Dortmand they listen.

1198
00:56:13,320 --> 00:56:16,080
Speaker 1: I think they've gotten better defensively, Like they have good

1199
00:56:16,200 --> 00:56:19,560
Speaker 1: midfielders that can compete with City, with Bellingham and Oscan,

1200
00:56:19,719 --> 00:56:21,759
Speaker 1: Like they have guys who can press them and give

1201
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:24,960
Speaker 1: them a little bit of problem. But I mean, this

1202
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:28,960
Speaker 1: is the reason this is going to suck is because

1203
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:32,880
Speaker 1: we're still betting kind of on City playing pragmatic and

1204
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:34,960
Speaker 1: the only way Dortman's going to survive in this one

1205
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:37,480
Speaker 1: is they have to play very defensive and basically let

1206
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:40,560
Speaker 1: City have the ball. You know, if you go back

1207
00:56:40,600 --> 00:56:43,080
Speaker 1: two years when they played against each other in the

1208
00:56:43,160 --> 00:56:48,120
Speaker 1: knockout stage. Both matches were were under three expected goals,

1209
00:56:48,400 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 1: and that was with Holland at Dortmund. So yeah, I

1210
00:56:52,719 --> 00:56:54,879
Speaker 1: mean purely. I mean Dortmand obviously over formed a ton

1211
00:56:55,040 --> 00:56:58,759
Speaker 1: last season. They've been pretty good defensively in the Bundesliga.

1212
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 1: I mean they're around one point one next allowed for

1213
00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:04,120
Speaker 1: ninety since the start of last season. Like they're not

1214
00:57:04,200 --> 00:57:06,160
Speaker 1: a bad defense. They've got a little better. You know,

1215
00:57:06,160 --> 00:57:09,880
Speaker 1: they got soule in to help them defensively. So I

1216
00:57:09,960 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 1: look for Dortman to sit very deep. You know, they

1217
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:16,840
Speaker 1: they want against Copenhagen, so they have, you know, the

1218
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:19,040
Speaker 1: three point advantage where they can go there. They don't

1219
00:57:19,080 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 1: have to be desperate to get three points. So I

1220
00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:24,160
Speaker 1: look for Dormant to sit deep, and I'm looking forward

1221
00:57:24,160 --> 00:57:26,240
Speaker 1: to watching Holland to score four goals right in our face.

1222
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:29,680
Speaker 4: Holland minus two hundred to score at any time seven

1223
00:57:29,720 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 4: to one?

1224
00:57:31,440 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 2: What what is?

1225
00:57:32,120 --> 00:57:32,919
Speaker 1: What is not to score?

1226
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:36,320
Speaker 4: Is that up? Is that up? But yeah, it's minus.

1227
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 2: I don't know if I've ever seen and he was

1228
00:57:40,040 --> 00:57:42,920
Speaker 2: seeing that. Not in the Champions League necessarily, but I

1229
00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 2: mean Holland last year against our boys. Great the first

1230
00:57:48,360 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 2: he was minus five hundred to score. I mean, yeah,

1231
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:56,640
Speaker 2: of course there was like an is pretty crazy.

1232
00:57:57,360 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 4: Also Geo Arena playing his father's old team Clodio before

1233
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:06,000
Speaker 4: Anthony's tacking. But Claudia Arena played for Man City Anthony.

1234
00:58:06,080 --> 00:58:08,520
Speaker 2: And what do you have this one? I agree, I'm

1235
00:58:08,560 --> 00:58:11,240
Speaker 2: on the under as well. I just bet it right

1236
00:58:11,240 --> 00:58:12,960
Speaker 2: before we started recording this. It was the first bet

1237
00:58:13,000 --> 00:58:14,880
Speaker 2: I made, first thing that jumped off the board to me.

1238
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:18,440
Speaker 2: I got the under by a half against Copenhaguen half

1239
00:58:18,480 --> 00:58:20,680
Speaker 2: win against Copenhagen. Last week I hit a live under

1240
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 2: against Dortmund. I continue to think that this defense is

1241
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:26,440
Speaker 2: just better. I mean, the biggest problem was a Kanji

1242
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:31,720
Speaker 2: and Humbles making dumb mistakes and the midfield constantly being

1243
00:58:31,760 --> 00:58:34,960
Speaker 2: in flux. But o'shan and Bellingham is a good midfield,

1244
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:39,760
Speaker 2: and Schlaughterback and Sula are much better passers, which I

1245
00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 2: think is the biggest difference, because what would happen is

1246
00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:44,040
Speaker 2: they get pressed, they'd make a mistake and then you'd

1247
00:58:44,040 --> 00:58:45,960
Speaker 2: get the all. I can't believe Dorman considered that dumb

1248
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:47,760
Speaker 2: goal and you'd say that twice and then all of

1249
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:50,000
Speaker 2: a sudden. It's two to two in the twenty eighth minute, right,

1250
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:52,600
Speaker 2: But this attack is just not as good either. I

1251
00:58:52,640 --> 00:58:55,920
Speaker 2: mean they have not replaced Holland whatsoever. And you look

1252
00:58:55,960 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 2: at it. They took two shots in the first half

1253
00:58:59,720 --> 00:59:02,640
Speaker 2: at Leipsig this weekend. They had a major problem competing

1254
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:04,480
Speaker 2: with them. It's not going to get any easier on

1255
00:59:04,480 --> 00:59:07,160
Speaker 2: the road to Manchester City City's defense. For what we've

1256
00:59:07,200 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 2: said is you know that they can be attacked. This

1257
00:59:09,840 --> 00:59:12,479
Speaker 2: Dortmund team is not nearly as built for a counter

1258
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:14,640
Speaker 2: attack as they used to be either. And I think

1259
00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:18,000
Speaker 2: that's another thing. Madesta's game is not speeding behind necessarily

1260
00:59:18,040 --> 00:59:21,120
Speaker 2: as much as is linking play and being more of

1261
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:23,960
Speaker 2: a target man. So I think that this team is

1262
00:59:24,040 --> 00:59:27,200
Speaker 2: not built in traditional Dortmund ways. They don't really have

1263
00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:29,640
Speaker 2: an identity, which I think is hurting them because they're

1264
00:59:29,720 --> 00:59:33,280
Speaker 2: not as good an attack as normal and the defense,

1265
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:37,160
Speaker 2: just by nature of regression indicators has improved a little bit.

1266
00:59:37,160 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 2: They weren't as bad as as some of the numbers suggested.

1267
00:59:39,720 --> 00:59:41,520
Speaker 2: And now you're looking at Okay, they played a one

1268
00:59:41,600 --> 00:59:47,120
Speaker 2: no with Leverkusen. We've talked forever that fixture constantly absurd matches.

1269
00:59:47,800 --> 00:59:50,760
Speaker 2: But they've kept clean sheets against hart don Hoffenheim and

1270
00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:53,560
Speaker 2: they kept a clean cheating Champions League, whi's been a problem.

1271
00:59:53,800 --> 00:59:56,160
Speaker 2: And then they play Leipsig and they usually that game

1272
00:59:56,240 --> 00:59:57,720
Speaker 2: is back and forth and opened and wild.

1273
00:59:57,920 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 4: That was not.

1274
00:59:58,440 --> 01:00:00,240
Speaker 2: I watched every minute of it and it was very

1275
01:00:01,240 --> 01:00:05,160
Speaker 2: uh cagy and different from typical Dortmund budnessligamagines. So I

1276
01:00:05,240 --> 01:00:07,840
Speaker 2: think that this under trend has continued in the market's

1277
01:00:07,840 --> 01:00:09,200
Speaker 2: not baking it in. I'm gonna bet it again.

1278
01:00:09,480 --> 01:00:11,640
Speaker 4: All right, let's stick around here in group B and

1279
01:00:11,800 --> 01:00:15,200
Speaker 4: talk about Copenhagen. They're plus two to fifty at home

1280
01:00:15,280 --> 01:00:18,880
Speaker 4: hosting Sevilla, plus one ten on the road. The draw

1281
01:00:19,160 --> 01:00:24,040
Speaker 4: is plus two fifty. Anthony. You you kind of went

1282
01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:28,280
Speaker 4: on a on a soliloquy last week about how Sevilla

1283
01:00:28,440 --> 01:00:32,160
Speaker 4: is not good, and you've been proven right. They did

1284
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:35,800
Speaker 4: stop the rot with a win over Espanol three two

1285
01:00:35,880 --> 01:00:38,520
Speaker 4: win over Espanol over the weekend, but they were up

1286
01:00:38,560 --> 01:00:41,080
Speaker 4: three nil and and Espanol almost came back to get

1287
01:00:41,080 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 4: a result. So they're not they're not they're not in

1288
01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 4: a good they're not in a good way. Now.

1289
01:00:49,800 --> 01:00:51,240
Speaker 2: They got crushed in that game. They can see it

1290
01:00:51,280 --> 01:00:52,240
Speaker 2: over to expected goals.

1291
01:00:52,280 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 4: I mean, this number is the number here.

1292
01:00:53,920 --> 01:00:56,600
Speaker 2: Is is just terrible. Yeah yeah, I mean, look, the

1293
01:00:56,680 --> 01:00:57,200
Speaker 2: market knows.

1294
01:00:57,640 --> 01:00:57,760
Speaker 1: Uh.

1295
01:00:58,640 --> 01:01:01,040
Speaker 2: Our colleague Shanzilla loves to Seville.

1296
01:01:01,080 --> 01:01:03,120
Speaker 1: He's a fan hanging on. I don't know why.

1297
01:01:03,400 --> 01:01:05,760
Speaker 2: He just came and I texted him and he bet them,

1298
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:07,760
Speaker 2: and I said, this is actually not a terrible buy

1299
01:01:07,840 --> 01:01:11,120
Speaker 2: low because they were an even money pick them at Espanol.

1300
01:01:11,200 --> 01:01:15,120
Speaker 2: I thought, personally, I'm no fan of Espanol. And the

1301
01:01:15,240 --> 01:01:19,560
Speaker 2: next morning a mountain of Espanol money came in. I

1302
01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:22,120
Speaker 2: guess everybody saw what BJ was betting, and they were

1303
01:01:22,240 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 2: you know, they closed, they they closed. Minus won twenty.

1304
01:01:24,920 --> 01:01:27,440
Speaker 2: Draano bed favorites in that match. Minus won thirty.

1305
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:28,000
Speaker 1: Uh.

1306
01:01:28,480 --> 01:01:31,960
Speaker 2: And so the market is finally catching on to what

1307
01:01:32,000 --> 01:01:34,040
Speaker 2: we've been saying for a year, which is that this

1308
01:01:34,120 --> 01:01:37,280
Speaker 2: Sevia team is terrible. They won the match, but they've

1309
01:01:37,360 --> 01:01:40,000
Speaker 2: now conceded This is Seville we're talking about. They've now

1310
01:01:40,120 --> 01:01:45,680
Speaker 2: conceded twelve goals in uh in their last five matches.

1311
01:01:45,720 --> 01:01:48,480
Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's terrifying stuff from them.

1312
01:01:48,600 --> 01:01:49,640
Speaker 1: So, uh.

1313
01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:54,840
Speaker 2: No, thank you pass. There will be times to fade them.

1314
01:01:55,120 --> 01:01:56,680
Speaker 2: I haven't looked at the market. Yet they play vi

1315
01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:59,320
Speaker 2: Rial this weekend. Then they're hosting at Letti and they

1316
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 2: have Dortmund, then they have bill Baud and they have

1317
01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:04,800
Speaker 2: Dortmand again. I mean, they're gonna need to They're gonna

1318
01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:07,320
Speaker 2: need to change something. We'll take you might get fired.

1319
01:02:07,440 --> 01:02:10,360
Speaker 2: I don't know. But how many of those matches they're winning.

1320
01:02:10,680 --> 01:02:16,320
Speaker 1: I'm looking Verial is only minus one twenty five at

1321
01:02:16,400 --> 01:02:17,920
Speaker 1: home against Sabia this weekend.

1322
01:02:18,800 --> 01:02:21,400
Speaker 2: M there'll be another Emery bet for us.

1323
01:02:22,520 --> 01:02:26,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, all right, let's go on to our final group

1324
01:02:26,400 --> 01:02:30,240
Speaker 4: to discuss before we get into one Europa League bet

1325
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:32,960
Speaker 4: from bj and then our favorite bets for match week

1326
01:02:33,080 --> 01:02:39,040
Speaker 4: two of the Champions League. Juventus and Benfica uve plus

1327
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:42,440
Speaker 4: one fifteen at home, Benfica coming back at plus two forty.

1328
01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:46,919
Speaker 4: The draw is plus two fifty. Benfica won two nil

1329
01:02:46,960 --> 01:02:49,880
Speaker 4: against Maccabee Heifa in their opener. Not much you can

1330
01:02:49,960 --> 01:02:53,040
Speaker 4: learn from that. They didn't create as much. I thought

1331
01:02:53,080 --> 01:02:56,040
Speaker 4: that they would have been a little bit better. But uh,

1332
01:02:56,240 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 4: you know, sometimes when you're playing like these relative minnos,

1333
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:02,160
Speaker 4: it's the games can kind of get a little wonky. Meanwhile,

1334
01:03:02,320 --> 01:03:06,440
Speaker 4: youve are just continuing to do you want to say

1335
01:03:06,440 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 4: another team stuck in the mud. They're stuck in the

1336
01:03:08,320 --> 01:03:11,760
Speaker 4: mud at drug against seller Nitana over the weekend. It's

1337
01:03:11,800 --> 01:03:17,320
Speaker 4: not looking pretty enterin right now. Nothing for me here, Anthony.

1338
01:03:18,440 --> 01:03:19,720
Speaker 4: Juventus and Benfica.

1339
01:03:20,560 --> 01:03:22,160
Speaker 2: We just talked about Seville. I feel the same way

1340
01:03:22,200 --> 01:03:25,360
Speaker 2: about Juventus. But man, the market is caught up because

1341
01:03:25,760 --> 01:03:29,040
Speaker 2: Juventus was minus two hundred against Sournyitana today and I

1342
01:03:29,160 --> 01:03:33,040
Speaker 2: wanted to bet Sourny Tana so badly, but the number

1343
01:03:33,160 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 2: was not good. I mean plus one and a half

1344
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:36,840
Speaker 2: was minus one eighty. I was like, this is this

1345
01:03:36,920 --> 01:03:38,439
Speaker 2: is obscene. I thought I was going to get plus

1346
01:03:38,480 --> 01:03:39,640
Speaker 2: one and a half and I would have gotten that

1347
01:03:39,720 --> 01:03:42,440
Speaker 2: last year. So the market's clearly downgraded Juventus. I thought

1348
01:03:42,440 --> 01:03:45,280
Speaker 2: they actually had a decent performance today, but again down

1349
01:03:45,360 --> 01:03:48,160
Speaker 2: two Nio in the first half. You go back to

1350
01:03:48,280 --> 01:03:50,880
Speaker 2: last week, they even played PSG pretty well. I thought

1351
01:03:50,880 --> 01:03:52,840
Speaker 2: it was a good showing. That scares me a little

1352
01:03:52,840 --> 01:03:56,160
Speaker 2: bit of PSG. But I am passing this match. I'm

1353
01:03:56,240 --> 01:03:59,440
Speaker 2: riding my Benfica ticket, which we talked extensively about on

1354
01:03:59,520 --> 01:04:02,920
Speaker 2: the previous They're now plus one forty two advance. I

1355
01:04:03,000 --> 01:04:04,880
Speaker 2: still think they're going to advance. You can still get

1356
01:04:04,880 --> 01:04:06,920
Speaker 2: in there. They're the better team. They're better than Uventus.

1357
01:04:07,280 --> 01:04:10,920
Speaker 2: Juventus stinks and it's Lahovics magic or nothing, and so

1358
01:04:11,080 --> 01:04:13,720
Speaker 2: this will be Benfica live if anything. But they're only

1359
01:04:13,760 --> 01:04:15,960
Speaker 2: plus one twenty at home. The market now thinks Benefica's

1360
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:16,440
Speaker 2: better than them.

1361
01:04:16,520 --> 01:04:21,040
Speaker 1: This sucks so great. I was so ready to bet Benefica.

1362
01:04:21,320 --> 01:04:23,080
Speaker 1: I was getting on yesterday. I was like, all right,

1363
01:04:23,160 --> 01:04:25,360
Speaker 1: let's take over at the market and like I'm just hoping, like, yes,

1364
01:04:25,440 --> 01:04:27,920
Speaker 1: we can get Benefica plus half a goal at like

1365
01:04:28,040 --> 01:04:30,560
Speaker 1: even money or even minus one ten. I saw plus

1366
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:33,240
Speaker 1: one twenty. I was like, man, I got Juventus at

1367
01:04:33,600 --> 01:04:35,800
Speaker 1: like plus one twenty five. Like this sucks, like the

1368
01:04:35,880 --> 01:04:39,560
Speaker 1: market is clearly caught up. But you know, to Anthony's point, yes,

1369
01:04:39,640 --> 01:04:42,080
Speaker 1: I think Juventus was pretty good against PSG. Like it

1370
01:04:42,160 --> 01:04:44,360
Speaker 1: looked like it was going to go south, like very fast,

1371
01:04:44,480 --> 01:04:46,160
Speaker 1: very quickly, and like it could have been a PSG

1372
01:04:46,280 --> 01:04:50,120
Speaker 1: five nothing, But they rebounded pretty nicely and was able

1373
01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:52,600
Speaker 1: to start to control some possession against PSG. They obviously

1374
01:04:52,640 --> 01:04:55,240
Speaker 1: got a goal off of the corner, you know, McKenny scored,

1375
01:04:55,440 --> 01:04:59,880
Speaker 1: and I thought, for you know, sixty last hour of

1376
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:03,120
Speaker 1: the match, like they were kind of even with PSG

1377
01:05:03,200 --> 01:05:05,040
Speaker 1: you know, actually ended up being only one point four

1378
01:05:05,040 --> 01:05:08,040
Speaker 1: to point eight, so not a bad showing. But then

1379
01:05:08,360 --> 01:05:09,880
Speaker 1: you know, you look at what they're doing in syria

1380
01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:13,240
Speaker 1: A and it's awful. Like like Anthony said, it's blohovk

1381
01:05:13,360 --> 01:05:15,400
Speaker 1: or nothing. They don't have anything around him right now.

1382
01:05:15,560 --> 01:05:18,320
Speaker 1: So I'm actually going to take under two and a

1383
01:05:18,320 --> 01:05:22,920
Speaker 1: half goals at plus one oh five because you know,

1384
01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:26,160
Speaker 1: this is a Benefica team that likes tends to set

1385
01:05:26,280 --> 01:05:27,960
Speaker 1: up a little bit more defensive when they play these

1386
01:05:28,000 --> 01:05:30,840
Speaker 1: bigger sides, looking to counter attack them, whereas Allegra is

1387
01:05:30,840 --> 01:05:34,120
Speaker 1: playing a lot more conservative with Juventus. I mean, Anthony

1388
01:05:34,200 --> 01:05:36,560
Speaker 1: mentioned it, you know, the the very low amount of

1389
01:05:36,600 --> 01:05:41,479
Speaker 1: shots they had against lower sides, and Benefica really wasn't

1390
01:05:41,520 --> 01:05:44,560
Speaker 1: that good against Haifa, like they at home, they should

1391
01:05:44,600 --> 01:05:47,040
Speaker 1: be able to dominate that match. Actually z point nine

1392
01:05:47,080 --> 01:05:50,440
Speaker 1: to point two. They only held fifty six percent possession,

1393
01:05:50,800 --> 01:05:53,680
Speaker 1: like the progressive passes from only thirty eight to twenty five.

1394
01:05:53,880 --> 01:05:57,320
Speaker 1: Like it wasn't really Hifa for I thought in the

1395
01:05:57,400 --> 01:05:59,720
Speaker 1: second half, especially when Benefica went up, like they were

1396
01:05:59,760 --> 01:06:02,400
Speaker 1: starting to kind of control possession and be a little

1397
01:06:02,400 --> 01:06:04,160
Speaker 1: bit threatening. They just have nothing to get on the

1398
01:06:04,280 --> 01:06:06,040
Speaker 1: end of it to actually, you know, create something at

1399
01:06:06,040 --> 01:06:10,720
Speaker 1: the end. But yeah, I only have I barely project

1400
01:06:10,760 --> 01:06:13,160
Speaker 1: over two goals in this match with how bad events

1401
01:06:13,160 --> 01:06:15,960
Speaker 1: this offense have been. But defensively they've still been good,

1402
01:06:16,120 --> 01:06:18,000
Speaker 1: like like we have to admit that there's still a

1403
01:06:18,200 --> 01:06:20,640
Speaker 1: one x g per ninety minute defense like that is

1404
01:06:20,680 --> 01:06:22,800
Speaker 1: a good defense in Europe's top five leak they just

1405
01:06:22,840 --> 01:06:25,640
Speaker 1: have nothing offensively. So I'm going to try to keep

1406
01:06:25,920 --> 01:06:30,640
Speaker 1: riding the under trend with Juventus here against Benafica. You know,

1407
01:06:30,880 --> 01:06:33,479
Speaker 1: you could say Uve is going to play a little

1408
01:06:33,520 --> 01:06:35,800
Speaker 1: bit more desperate at home after losing their opening match.

1409
01:06:35,840 --> 01:06:38,360
Speaker 1: Benefica maybe plays a little more conservative after getting three

1410
01:06:38,400 --> 01:06:42,320
Speaker 1: points against Haifa, So I think that's probably gonna lead

1411
01:06:42,480 --> 01:06:46,680
Speaker 1: more to a low event type of match. So getting

1412
01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:48,120
Speaker 1: under two and a half goals at plus money I

1413
01:06:48,120 --> 01:06:50,160
Speaker 1: think has a tremendous value. So I'm taking the under.

1414
01:06:51,400 --> 01:06:54,960
Speaker 4: And finally we will discuss Maccabee Heifa eighteen to one

1415
01:06:55,120 --> 01:06:55,560
Speaker 4: at home.

1416
01:06:55,880 --> 01:06:58,280
Speaker 1: This is insane hosting PSG.

1417
01:06:58,440 --> 01:07:03,280
Speaker 4: Minus eight hundred the road at the Sammy Huffer Stadium.

1418
01:07:03,400 --> 01:07:05,840
Speaker 4: The draw here is plus seven fifty. You just were saying,

1419
01:07:05,920 --> 01:07:08,919
Speaker 4: b J, You've never you can't remember seeing on any

1420
01:07:08,960 --> 01:07:11,280
Speaker 4: time goalscorer line at minus two hundred in a game.

1421
01:07:11,720 --> 01:07:13,880
Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever seen on the road in

1422
01:07:13,880 --> 01:07:16,160
Speaker 1: the Champions League like this is, and this is.

1423
01:07:16,240 --> 01:07:20,600
Speaker 4: I think this is crazier. Four players on PSG are

1424
01:07:20,640 --> 01:07:24,320
Speaker 4: odds on to score and bop A minus won fifty,

1425
01:07:24,680 --> 01:07:27,480
Speaker 4: Messi minus one thirty eight, nym are minus one twenty

1426
01:07:27,520 --> 01:07:29,720
Speaker 4: five and a Cardi minus one to five. U.

1427
01:07:30,120 --> 01:07:30,640
Speaker 2: That's just not.

1428
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:37,400
Speaker 1: Cardi's at Galatasarai. He's literally just left the galatas Ray alone.

1429
01:07:38,120 --> 01:07:40,520
Speaker 1: Oh man. Well, so for for people out there, are

1430
01:07:40,600 --> 01:07:43,800
Speaker 1: just just to the implied odds on minus eight hundred

1431
01:07:44,480 --> 01:07:48,880
Speaker 1: is just a little under eighty nine percent, Like think

1432
01:07:48,920 --> 01:07:54,000
Speaker 1: about that. That is insane for a PSG team that, Yeah,

1433
01:07:54,040 --> 01:07:55,520
Speaker 1: they got the best front three in the world and

1434
01:07:55,600 --> 01:07:57,960
Speaker 1: they've been pasting everybody in the league on and they

1435
01:07:58,000 --> 01:08:00,440
Speaker 1: might then they might paste hyphe four nothing. They might.

1436
01:08:01,160 --> 01:08:04,760
Speaker 1: But with that being said, they were not, like we

1437
01:08:04,880 --> 01:08:07,160
Speaker 1: already mentioned, they were not impressive against events at all.

1438
01:08:07,360 --> 01:08:09,560
Speaker 1: They were not good against Dodd Debrestwaild over the weekend.

1439
01:08:09,600 --> 01:08:11,480
Speaker 1: They only created one and a half expected goals at

1440
01:08:11,520 --> 01:08:14,520
Speaker 1: home only one one nothing And Haifa let me say

1441
01:08:14,560 --> 01:08:16,600
Speaker 1: what you will about them. I don't think they're the

1442
01:08:16,640 --> 01:08:19,519
Speaker 1: worst team in this competition. If you go back to

1443
01:08:19,880 --> 01:08:22,479
Speaker 1: like I understand that you know PSG is a much

1444
01:08:22,520 --> 01:08:25,800
Speaker 1: different team than Red Star Belgrade. But with that being said,

1445
01:08:26,240 --> 01:08:29,600
Speaker 1: Haifa was able to control over fifty percent possession in

1446
01:08:29,640 --> 01:08:32,120
Speaker 1: both those matches against a Europa League mainstay over the

1447
01:08:32,240 --> 01:08:36,040
Speaker 1: last five to six years. They beat Olympiakos over two legs.

1448
01:08:36,280 --> 01:08:38,880
Speaker 1: Coming up to this, they only, like I already mentioned

1449
01:08:38,920 --> 01:08:41,439
Speaker 1: ben If he only created point nine to XG against them,

1450
01:08:41,640 --> 01:08:46,120
Speaker 1: so eighty nine percent on the road, like for the

1451
01:08:46,479 --> 01:08:48,840
Speaker 1: best team in the fifth best league in Europe. Like,

1452
01:08:49,000 --> 01:08:51,560
Speaker 1: here's what I'll say about PSG. I've already mentioned it

1453
01:08:51,600 --> 01:08:53,720
Speaker 1: many times. Yes, they were only like a one XG

1454
01:08:53,960 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 1: differential per ninety in the fifth best league. Like, it's

1455
01:08:55,960 --> 01:08:58,240
Speaker 1: not that good. They're a little over two to start

1456
01:08:58,280 --> 01:09:00,559
Speaker 1: this season. If they do that over a whole season,

1457
01:09:00,680 --> 01:09:02,320
Speaker 1: I will fully admit that they are one of the

1458
01:09:02,360 --> 01:09:04,000
Speaker 1: best teams in the world and they should be one

1459
01:09:04,000 --> 01:09:05,599
Speaker 1: of the favorites to win the Champions League. But until

1460
01:09:05,640 --> 01:09:08,080
Speaker 1: they actually do that over a full season, I will

1461
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:12,240
Speaker 1: not admit that. So this line is crazy. But with

1462
01:09:12,360 --> 01:09:15,400
Speaker 1: that being said, I don't really like laying a big

1463
01:09:15,520 --> 01:09:18,080
Speaker 1: spread with Haifa. I expect them to play a little

1464
01:09:18,080 --> 01:09:22,720
Speaker 1: bit more defensive and over I mean I'm taking under

1465
01:09:22,720 --> 01:09:26,240
Speaker 1: three and a half goals because once again, I think

1466
01:09:26,280 --> 01:09:30,800
Speaker 1: these Haifa lines are just way, way way overpriced on

1467
01:09:30,840 --> 01:09:32,559
Speaker 1: the over under. I mean you saw it against Betafica.

1468
01:09:32,560 --> 01:09:34,760
Speaker 1: I mean there was one point one XG created in

1469
01:09:34,840 --> 01:09:37,799
Speaker 1: the entire match. I expect them to play very defensive.

1470
01:09:38,439 --> 01:09:42,000
Speaker 1: I expect them to play very conservative, and if even

1471
01:09:42,000 --> 01:09:45,120
Speaker 1: if PSG goes up, I still expect them to play

1472
01:09:45,200 --> 01:09:45,880
Speaker 1: very conservative.

1473
01:09:45,960 --> 01:09:47,639
Speaker 2: So I don't know how the scores here either.

1474
01:09:47,840 --> 01:09:48,639
Speaker 1: I don't know how they score.

1475
01:09:48,720 --> 01:09:50,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's both teams to score is minus bunch twenty.

1476
01:09:52,240 --> 01:09:55,320
Speaker 1: So then no, it would be a quie like even money.

1477
01:09:55,400 --> 01:09:57,599
Speaker 1: Then it would be my guest. So maybe I'll play

1478
01:09:57,640 --> 01:09:59,400
Speaker 1: both teams to score no at even money.

1479
01:10:00,040 --> 01:10:01,320
Speaker 2: With the situation.

1480
01:10:01,400 --> 01:10:03,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, then we have another pleasant situation and then I'm

1481
01:10:03,600 --> 01:10:07,479
Speaker 1: just I'm hating myself. But hey, you know that's my

1482
01:10:07,600 --> 01:10:09,320
Speaker 1: bread and Butter's the both both teams score now. So

1483
01:10:09,400 --> 01:10:11,320
Speaker 1: but now I'm taking on under three and a half goals.

1484
01:10:11,680 --> 01:10:14,880
Speaker 1: I think it's way overpriced. I have, you know, total

1485
01:10:14,960 --> 01:10:18,160
Speaker 1: set at about two point eight two point nine to three.

1486
01:10:18,320 --> 01:10:20,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm taking under three and a half goals

1487
01:10:20,840 --> 01:10:23,040
Speaker 1: because I'm kind of scared of PSG winning three nothing.

1488
01:10:23,120 --> 01:10:27,040
Speaker 1: But this line is insane, like it's it's way too

1489
01:10:27,160 --> 01:10:27,960
Speaker 1: high for PSG.

1490
01:10:29,120 --> 01:10:31,280
Speaker 4: Hypea eighteen to one. That's a bet I'm going to make.

1491
01:10:31,320 --> 01:10:33,360
Speaker 4: I don't endorse it at all for for other people

1492
01:10:33,400 --> 01:10:35,160
Speaker 4: unless you just want to have a little fun betting

1493
01:10:35,240 --> 01:10:38,800
Speaker 4: the Greens to be how about Lionel Messi and killing

1494
01:10:38,800 --> 01:10:42,920
Speaker 4: and Bope traveling to the Sami Offer Stadium. What a

1495
01:10:43,040 --> 01:10:45,479
Speaker 4: what a time that's going to be for the Hypa

1496
01:10:45,560 --> 01:10:49,000
Speaker 4: fans out there. So yeah, I'm just it's for fun,

1497
01:10:49,240 --> 01:10:51,720
Speaker 4: small bet on Hypha. The money line not something that

1498
01:10:52,160 --> 01:10:53,920
Speaker 4: I mean, I guess according to BJ's numbers, it has

1499
01:10:53,960 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 4: a little bit of value, but it's not not something

1500
01:10:57,400 --> 01:11:00,840
Speaker 4: that I would suggest running to the window and breaking

1501
01:11:00,880 --> 01:11:04,160
Speaker 4: it down. Anthony, thirty seconds on Haifa and PSG before

1502
01:11:04,200 --> 01:11:06,160
Speaker 4: we move on. You don't even want the thirty seconds,

1503
01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:09,200
Speaker 4: that's fine, all right, let's go to the Europa League,

1504
01:11:09,200 --> 01:11:09,880
Speaker 4: but bet the under two.

1505
01:11:09,920 --> 01:11:11,000
Speaker 2: If I had to bet anything, I just think it's

1506
01:11:11,120 --> 01:11:14,280
Speaker 2: PSG totals are still inflated, all.

1507
01:11:14,240 --> 01:11:16,000
Speaker 4: Right, Europa League time.

1508
01:11:16,400 --> 01:11:16,639
Speaker 1: BJ.

1509
01:11:16,840 --> 01:11:18,479
Speaker 4: This is all you, although I will say one thing.

1510
01:11:20,080 --> 01:11:22,360
Speaker 4: Unjon Berlin is fifty to one to win the competition

1511
01:11:22,400 --> 01:11:23,960
Speaker 4: and I think that's a good number. Now over to

1512
01:11:23,960 --> 01:11:24,360
Speaker 4: you BJ.

1513
01:11:25,360 --> 01:11:28,160
Speaker 1: They just lost to Saint Gelosi in the first round

1514
01:11:29,360 --> 01:11:33,160
Speaker 1: and I like, I like Quara Bag drawn O Bett

1515
01:11:33,360 --> 01:11:37,719
Speaker 1: minus won twenty five at home against Naughts from France.

1516
01:11:37,800 --> 01:11:39,960
Speaker 1: The only reason that Knaughts is in this competition is

1517
01:11:39,960 --> 01:11:42,280
Speaker 1: because they won the French Cup. This was a minus

1518
01:11:42,360 --> 01:11:44,920
Speaker 1: eleven expecting gole diffrental team last season and they're doing

1519
01:11:44,960 --> 01:11:47,160
Speaker 1: it again this year. They're at minus two and a

1520
01:11:47,200 --> 01:11:49,960
Speaker 1: half through six matches. In Quara Bag I mean they've

1521
01:11:50,000 --> 01:11:52,600
Speaker 1: been a Europa League mainstay for a while. They were

1522
01:11:52,640 --> 01:11:55,479
Speaker 1: in the Champions League I think three years ago. They

1523
01:11:55,560 --> 01:11:58,120
Speaker 1: have experience in this competition and they're a plus one

1524
01:11:58,160 --> 01:12:00,679
Speaker 1: and a half actually differential on the Azerba John League.

1525
01:12:01,200 --> 01:12:04,840
Speaker 1: And this is a long way to travel for Nons

1526
01:12:04,880 --> 01:12:06,439
Speaker 1: in the middle of the week out it's over three

1527
01:12:06,520 --> 01:12:09,840
Speaker 1: thousand miles from Nance to Baku like this is and

1528
01:12:10,040 --> 01:12:11,639
Speaker 1: to try and get up and play the best team

1529
01:12:11,640 --> 01:12:16,120
Speaker 1: in Azerbaijohn who's very experienced in these type of competitions. Yeah,

1530
01:12:16,160 --> 01:12:20,040
Speaker 1: I can't get anywhere close to nants being basically a

1531
01:12:20,120 --> 01:12:22,800
Speaker 1: pick them on the road at Quara Bags. So give

1532
01:12:22,840 --> 01:12:27,000
Speaker 1: me the Champions of Azerbaijan. Joan o Bett at Bonus

1533
01:12:27,040 --> 01:12:27,720
Speaker 1: won twenty five.

1534
01:12:28,439 --> 01:12:31,519
Speaker 4: And now let's sum this all up with our favorite

1535
01:12:31,560 --> 01:12:34,200
Speaker 4: bets for the Champions League match Week two coming your

1536
01:12:34,240 --> 01:12:37,559
Speaker 4: way Tuesday and Wednesday. Anthony, you go first.

1537
01:12:38,479 --> 01:12:41,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an ugly Champions League under Manchester City Dortmund

1538
01:12:41,880 --> 01:12:45,600
Speaker 2: under three and a half goals. I can't get to

1539
01:12:45,680 --> 01:12:48,799
Speaker 2: this number. With Dortmann's making significant improvements in the midfield

1540
01:12:48,840 --> 01:12:52,040
Speaker 2: with Oshan and the defense with Schwaterback and Sula. The

1541
01:12:52,120 --> 01:12:54,400
Speaker 2: market is not quite adjusted to the downgrade in their

1542
01:12:54,439 --> 01:12:57,560
Speaker 2: attack with Holland being gone. They're not built in a

1543
01:12:57,600 --> 01:12:59,639
Speaker 2: way to expose City like they were in the past.

1544
01:12:59,680 --> 01:13:02,240
Speaker 2: They don't have a strong identity right now and I

1545
01:13:02,280 --> 01:13:04,840
Speaker 2: think it's impacting their ability to create chances. They're gonna

1546
01:13:04,840 --> 01:13:06,360
Speaker 2: get smothered. I think in this match by City City

1547
01:13:06,400 --> 01:13:09,519
Speaker 2: will control it, and even the City attack is running

1548
01:13:09,560 --> 01:13:11,599
Speaker 2: really well, and I think Dorman's improved defense can hang

1549
01:13:11,640 --> 01:13:13,559
Speaker 2: around in this match. Just think that should be closer

1550
01:13:13,600 --> 01:13:14,840
Speaker 2: to three and a quarter. So I'm gonna take three

1551
01:13:14,840 --> 01:13:17,519
Speaker 2: and a half when I get the opportunity here for.

1552
01:13:17,600 --> 01:13:22,720
Speaker 4: Me RB Leipzig plus four seventy five on the road

1553
01:13:22,920 --> 01:13:26,120
Speaker 4: against Real Madrid. This is all about buying low and

1554
01:13:26,280 --> 01:13:28,920
Speaker 4: selling high. Real Madrid are the only team in Europe's

1555
01:13:28,960 --> 01:13:32,559
Speaker 4: Big five leagues to be unblemished to start the season,

1556
01:13:33,200 --> 01:13:36,559
Speaker 4: but their schedule has been a KPE walk thus far.

1557
01:13:37,120 --> 01:13:40,639
Speaker 4: And even though they're returning to the Santiago Bernabout off

1558
01:13:40,680 --> 01:13:44,920
Speaker 4: an impressive three mil win against Celtic, they did show

1559
01:13:45,080 --> 01:13:47,040
Speaker 4: that they teetered a little bit in that first half

1560
01:13:47,200 --> 01:13:51,519
Speaker 4: and Celtic could have gone up one nil had they

1561
01:13:51,560 --> 01:13:54,760
Speaker 4: had a little bit more luck. So while I think

1562
01:13:54,800 --> 01:13:57,040
Speaker 4: Real Madrid are the better team, we're getting a new

1563
01:13:57,080 --> 01:13:59,439
Speaker 4: manager bounce from Leipzig, who I think are going to

1564
01:13:59,479 --> 01:14:03,560
Speaker 4: start trending up after a pedestrian start in the Bundesliga.

1565
01:14:04,120 --> 01:14:06,559
Speaker 4: And I like the number here by low, sell high

1566
01:14:06,800 --> 01:14:08,559
Speaker 4: Rbleipzig BJ Cunningham.

1567
01:14:09,240 --> 01:14:10,760
Speaker 1: I like Inter minus one and a half on the

1568
01:14:10,840 --> 01:14:13,879
Speaker 1: road at Victoria Pleasant at plus one ten. This Victoria

1569
01:14:13,960 --> 01:14:18,160
Speaker 1: Pleasant team is probably the worst in the entire competition.

1570
01:14:18,400 --> 01:14:21,960
Speaker 1: They were really bad against Barcelona, getting paced in five

1571
01:14:21,960 --> 01:14:24,720
Speaker 1: to one. Barcelona had fifty touches in their penalty area,

1572
01:14:24,800 --> 01:14:27,519
Speaker 1: they controlled seventy five percent possession. And I mean this

1573
01:14:27,640 --> 01:14:29,880
Speaker 1: Victoria Pleasant team only has a plus point three to

1574
01:14:29,920 --> 01:14:32,880
Speaker 1: four expected goldifrenchal in the Czech League, Like that's what

1575
01:14:33,000 --> 01:14:34,679
Speaker 1: makes you think they're going to be good in this competition.

1576
01:14:35,240 --> 01:14:38,680
Speaker 1: And Inter, Yes, they did lose to Bayern Munich, but

1577
01:14:39,240 --> 01:14:41,599
Speaker 1: Inter is the type of team that just absolutely paced

1578
01:14:41,960 --> 01:14:44,519
Speaker 1: lesser competition. If you go back to the Champions League

1579
01:14:44,560 --> 01:14:47,240
Speaker 1: last year, in the four matches against Shaktar and Sheriff,

1580
01:14:47,680 --> 01:14:50,840
Speaker 1: they outgreated them a combined nine point three expected goals

1581
01:14:50,880 --> 01:14:53,000
Speaker 1: to two point six. If you go back to the

1582
01:14:53,040 --> 01:14:55,799
Speaker 1: start of last season in Syria A against the bottom

1583
01:14:55,880 --> 01:14:58,240
Speaker 1: half of the table twenty three matches, they have a

1584
01:14:58,320 --> 01:15:01,080
Speaker 1: plus forty two point four or expect a gold differential

1585
01:15:01,160 --> 01:15:04,840
Speaker 1: that's plus one point eighty five actually differential per ninety minutes.

1586
01:15:05,080 --> 01:15:08,639
Speaker 1: So I have interprojected spread at minus one point eight three.

1587
01:15:08,680 --> 01:15:10,120
Speaker 1: So if you give me plus one ten at minus

1588
01:15:10,160 --> 01:15:12,240
Speaker 1: one point five, I gotta take it all right.

1589
01:15:12,560 --> 01:15:15,880
Speaker 4: That wraps up this Champions League edition of Wonder Goal,

1590
01:15:15,960 --> 01:15:18,519
Speaker 4: the soccer betting podcast from the Action Network, presented to

1591
01:15:18,520 --> 01:15:21,519
Speaker 4: you by bet three sixty five. A reminder sign up

1592
01:15:21,520 --> 01:15:23,559
Speaker 4: with promo code Action to get Bet three six fives

1593
01:15:23,600 --> 01:15:26,160
Speaker 4: exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey and Colorado. Bet

1594
01:15:26,280 --> 01:15:29,479
Speaker 4: one dollar on any game, get two hundred free. And

1595
01:15:29,600 --> 01:15:32,760
Speaker 4: also a reminder that the Wonder Goal Podcast can now

1596
01:15:32,800 --> 01:15:34,599
Speaker 4: be found in the Action Network app. You can follow

1597
01:15:34,640 --> 01:15:37,439
Speaker 4: all our best bets from every episode by just searching

1598
01:15:37,520 --> 01:15:41,280
Speaker 4: Wonder Goal Podcast on the Action Network app and you

1599
01:15:41,280 --> 01:15:44,799
Speaker 4: will find them all. For b J. Cunningham, for Anti Dubundo,

1600
01:15:44,800 --> 01:15:47,920
Speaker 4: I'm Michaeliboff. We will see you again on Thursday morning

1601
01:15:47,960 --> 01:15:50,160
Speaker 4: because we will have Premier in the Soccer this weekend

1602
01:15:50,479 --> 01:15:52,840
Speaker 4: and we'll give you a little preview then. But until then,

1603
01:15:52,920 --> 01:15:56,040
Speaker 4: bestl up with all your bets on the Champions League

1604
01:15:56,080 --> 01:15:56,360
Speaker 4: this week.

1605
01:16:00,240 --> 01:16:02,280
Speaker 2: The fos and the Famous her