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Speaker 2: So Ryan was out yesterday, but for a very interesting reason.

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Speaker 2: He actually got to attend a meeting of journalists and

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Speaker 2: activists with the Iranian President, who of course was in

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Speaker 2: town and New York City for the UN meetings. Let's

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Speaker 2: go ahead and take a listen to a little bit

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Speaker 2: of what the Iranian President had to say in his

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Speaker 2: speech there about Israel.

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Speaker 3: Ladies and gentlemen, today, after near leaders of genocide, mass starvation,

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Speaker 3: the perpetuation of apartheid within the occupied territories, and aggression

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Speaker 3: against its neighbors, the ludicrous and delusional scheme of the

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Speaker 3: Greater Israel is being proclaimed with brazenness by the highest

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Speaker 3: echelons of that regime. The scheme encompasses vast swaths of

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Speaker 3: the region. The map itself lays whar the true intentions

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Speaker 3: of the Zionist regime, intentions that have of late been

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Speaker 3: openly endorsed by its criminal prime minister. None in the

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Speaker 3: world is secure from the aggressive machinations of this regime.

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Speaker 3: It is manifest that the Zionist regime and its sponsors

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Speaker 3: no longer even content themselves with normalization through political means. Rather,

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Speaker 3: they impose their presence through naked force and have styled

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Speaker 3: it peace through strength. Yet this is neither peace nor power.

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Speaker 3: It is nothing but aggression rooted in corrosion and bullying.

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Speaker 2: So, Ryan, that was some of the public messaging there

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Speaker 2: from Ron. What did you hear in that meeting you

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Speaker 2: were able to attend?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And so for context for people this mostu Pozashkian

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Speaker 4: was elected on a platform of basically moderateformism and and

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Speaker 4: an argument that Iran needs to get out of its

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Speaker 4: isolations posture and get back into nuclear negotiations with with.

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Speaker 5: Europe and the United States.

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Speaker 4: You know, there are a lot of divisions within Iranian

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Speaker 4: society over that question, and so his his victory represented

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Speaker 4: the ascension of that kind of viewpoint. And then on

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Speaker 4: the day of his inauguration is when Israel killed Hania

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Speaker 4: in Tehran, which was used by the hardliners to say, look,

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Speaker 4: how many times do we have to.

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Speaker 5: Tell you.

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Speaker 4: They don't they don't like you, like they're all they

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Speaker 4: want to do is undermine You're under undermine you. And

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Speaker 4: it was very interesting hearing from him, because in some

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Speaker 4: ways he seems like in over his head, is not

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Speaker 4: the is a little unfair, but he he's he seemed

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Speaker 4: to be genuine lee outraged and flummixed at the situation

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Speaker 4: that he's in. We just he just kept saying, He's like,

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Speaker 4: I can't watch television seeing what they're doing to these children,

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Speaker 4: Like it tears me up.

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Speaker 5: It's like, they follow no international laws, they invite us to.

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Speaker 4: Piece talks and kill our negotiators.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, And the day in that circumstance was the US.

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Speaker 4: And Israel, and he said it's like and he he

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Speaker 4: also said, I aske him if they're going to do

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Speaker 4: anything fundamentally different after the Twelve Day War, and I

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Speaker 4: don't know if it was an awkward thing where ten

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Speaker 4: people would ask questions and he'd answer them all kind

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Speaker 4: of at once. One thing he said was that since

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Speaker 4: the Twelve Day War, they have now put in place

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Speaker 4: a protocol for transfer of power, so that there are

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Speaker 4: now he said, five or six people below him, so

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Speaker 4: that he said, if they take me out, they are

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Speaker 4: five to six people to take my place, which they

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Speaker 4: didn't have it.

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Speaker 5: You know that that laid out before.

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Speaker 4: And at the same time you could kind of feel

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Speaker 4: from him a sense of his own mortality, which is

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Speaker 4: wild because it's like he's seventy years old, he's at

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Speaker 4: the pinnacle of his career when's the presidential election, is

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Speaker 4: trying to negotiate a way towards peace. But also you

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Speaker 4: could just feel it in the back of his mind

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Speaker 4: he's understands that they might try to kill him. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: And then it's but and then you're sort of like, well, why,

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Speaker 4: like how is killing this moderate guy who wants to

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Speaker 4: do peace negotiated? Like how is how does that help

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Speaker 4: at all? It's like, well, don't ask why, Like it's

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Speaker 4: they're probably going.

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Speaker 5: To do it anyway.

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Speaker 2: Well, and for Israel, I mean, yahoo's always opposed right

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Speaker 2: diplomatic negotiations with or he was opposed the original Obama

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Speaker 2: nuclear deal. So you know, for him, having a moderate

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Speaker 2: firmer in there that's interested in diplomatic negotiations is not

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Speaker 2: a plus.

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Speaker 4: Yes, his Historically, whether it's inside the PLO or even

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Speaker 4: in Hamas, the people arguing for more moderation within those

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Speaker 4: organizations have been more likely to be assassinated by Israel

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Speaker 4: than the hard liners, because the hardliners serve a narrative purpose,

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Speaker 4: the narrative purpose that we have to do.

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Speaker 5: We have to do endless war. Here.

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Speaker 4: At the very beginning of the meeting, he waxed very

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Speaker 4: philosophical and poetic about, uh, you know, how how small

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Speaker 4: we are in the in the scheme of things. You know,

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Speaker 4: you look at the planet from that you know, from

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Speaker 4: the galaxy, we're all just we're all one planet, and

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Speaker 4: we all have such a short time on this Earth

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Speaker 4: before AI.

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Speaker 5: What are we? Yes?

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Speaker 4: Exactly in his case, it probably won't be AI that

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Speaker 4: gets him, although some version of it, and he's like,

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Speaker 4: what are we fighting about? He's like this, there's one

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Speaker 4: country in the region that just refuses to recognize its

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Speaker 4: boundaries and and there seemed to be a resignation about it,

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Speaker 4: almost a fatalism. And also and the other the other

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Speaker 4: kind of thing that you could pick up from the

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Speaker 4: meeting is just how how divorced from American society and

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Speaker 4: culture the Iranians are, Like they they genuinely just don't

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Speaker 4: understand our political system. And he even said we don't

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Speaker 4: have any like because of the sanctions, they basically can't

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Speaker 4: hire any lobbyists or any consultants. And he said, we

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Speaker 4: don't have any lobbyists to help us like figure out

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Speaker 4: your system. Like they're basically left to just read the

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Speaker 4: New York Times and watch Fox News or Tucker Carlson

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Speaker 4: to try to figure out how how they can maneuver

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Speaker 4: within our system, whereas as he put as.

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Speaker 5: He pointed out Israel is the opposite.

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Speaker 4: They have friends everywhere in Washington, but it it really

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Speaker 4: did show that, like they're pretty clueless. There was some

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Speaker 4: news about how they're only allowed to go like three

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Speaker 4: blocks while they're in New York.

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Speaker 6: They're really banned from Costco.

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Speaker 4: They can't go to Costco, they can't go to Sam's Club,

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Speaker 4: they can't go to they can't do any shopping and

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Speaker 4: any other so it's like this three block radius this

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Speaker 4: hotel where this meeting was held, and then they can

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Speaker 4: get to the UN and that's it. And there's a

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Speaker 4: real fear among the pro Israel faction that if an

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Speaker 4: English speaking Iranian can get in front of Trump, that

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Speaker 4: they can be persuasive because they have a persuasive case

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Speaker 4: that aligns with what Trump wants, which is which is

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Speaker 4: no war, Like that's.

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Speaker 5: What they want to And is he English speaking? Not

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Speaker 5: really no, so he was the whole view was through

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Speaker 5: an interpreter. It just like.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and so is their expectations strongly that they're going

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Speaker 2: to be attacked again.

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Speaker 4: They are basically certain of it and like it's it's

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Speaker 4: a matter of when, and they think it. They think

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Speaker 4: it's going to be very soon. And nobody really knows why.

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Speaker 4: There's no real explanation, like why are they going to

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Speaker 4: be attacked again? But Yahu continues to stay openly like

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Speaker 4: that this is the year they have to do it,

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Speaker 4: like they have to just finish off this the Iranian regime.

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Speaker 5: But as he.

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Speaker 4: Said, that's not going to happen, like and so so

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Speaker 4: then what so? As he the point that another point

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Speaker 4: that he made in the conversation was they expected that

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Speaker 4: they would hit these top generals, that hit these scientists,

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Speaker 4: they'd cause chaos, hit these civilian civilian areas and people

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Speaker 4: would come out in the streets and the government would fall.

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Speaker 4: And that didn't happen, And like the government is in

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Speaker 4: a firmer position, I think than than Israel understands like

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Speaker 4: what is it and what does it even mean for

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Speaker 4: the government to fall? Like who, like there's the the

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Speaker 4: own there's really no kind of like who's like who's

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Speaker 4: coming in Like just it's there's no it's just not

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Speaker 4: a thought out process. Yeah, you can kill the Eyetola

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Speaker 4: he's like in his eighties.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they imagine like the Shaw's Sun is going to fail,

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Speaker 2: Sun is gonna Yeah, they pick up the pieces.

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Speaker 4: Right, there's these guys, Yeah, who think they're going to

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Speaker 4: fly into Tehran. But on the back of what like

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Speaker 4: it doesn't and so yeah, can they continue to kill

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Speaker 4: scientists and generals and bomb infrastructure, Yes, but then but

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Speaker 4: to what end?

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Speaker 2: So during the Twelve Day War Iran's after we joined

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Speaker 2: the fight overtly and bomb their nuclear facilities, their response

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Speaker 2: to us was pretty limited and seemed to be you know,

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Speaker 2: part of the strategy of Okay, we're gonna do something

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Speaker 2: because we have to do something, but it's not going

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Speaker 2: to be anything that's going to make you too mad.

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Speaker 2: Is there any sense of like that was the right strategy,

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Speaker 2: that was the wrong strategy. We'd handle it differently next time,

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Speaker 2: you know? Did you do you have any sense of that?

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Speaker 5: They?

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Speaker 4: I think as far as their response to the United States,

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Speaker 4: I think they they think that was the right one.

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Speaker 4: They won a friendly relationship with the United States. And

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Speaker 4: so yeah, what they did is they called Trump and

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Speaker 4: said we're going to hit We're going to hit your

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Speaker 4: basin cutter in like two hours, Like you need more time,

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Speaker 4: It's two hours, okay.

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Speaker 5: He's like, no, two hours is good. So they cleared

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Speaker 5: everybody out.

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Speaker 4: It landed like in the sand of the base, and

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Speaker 4: they called that a day.

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Speaker 5: Now.

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Speaker 4: I asked him what his analysis was of why the

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Speaker 4: twelve day War ended, and it's unclear. It was again

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Speaker 4: like a direct response to that question, but what he

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Speaker 4: said in the response question was he said, basically, they

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Speaker 4: Israel did not expect that any missiles, let alone Iranian missiles,

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Speaker 4: could penetrate their air defenses, and he said it would

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Speaker 4: be on tour to like get into the kind of

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Speaker 4: details of what of what the damage was that their

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Speaker 4: missiles created, but he felt that it was that that

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Speaker 4: their ability to get missiles through the Israeli airshield is

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Speaker 4: what is what actually you know, pushed them, pushed them

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Speaker 4: to end it.

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Speaker 2: There was some reporting about that at the time the

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Speaker 2: number of interceptors that Israel had in stockpile were rapidly

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Speaker 2: dwindling and diminishing, and so there was a sense that

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Speaker 2: there was some pressure on them as well to you know,

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Speaker 2: not that they were sustaining the level of damage that

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Speaker 2: Iran was sustaining, but that they were running into some

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Speaker 2: capacity issues where it wasn't like, oh, this will be

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Speaker 2: it forever, but we could use a little bit of

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Speaker 2: time to like regroup and replenish our stockpiles.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, the iron dome and the other elements of it

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Speaker 4: were you know, significantly depleted because you know, it takes

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Speaker 4: a year to almost like a year to make the

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Speaker 4: amount that we used in twelve days. They are now

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Speaker 4: Israel saying it is now developing this laser technology, which

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Speaker 4: which would be a game changer if it worked, because

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Speaker 4: the the lasers cost like, you know, a couple of

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Speaker 4: bucks each. You know, once you have, once you have

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Speaker 4: them up and running, So that would be you know,

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Speaker 4: if that actually worked. But on the other hand, do

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Speaker 4: they actually work against like hypersonic missiles. You know, it's

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Speaker 4: something that's something we'd have to find out. You see,

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Speaker 4: if there's anything else that was interesting from that. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: they could not fathom that any missile, let alone and

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Speaker 4: Irani missile could penetrate their air defenses. Yeah, you said,

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Speaker 4: if they take me out five to six steps down

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Speaker 4: the line have been planned for. Iran is not Gaza,

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Speaker 4: Iran is not lebt On, Iran is not Syria. Iran

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Speaker 4: is different. Making the argument that like this plan you

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Speaker 4: have is like we're not going anywhere. Yeah, you have

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Speaker 4: to live with us.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Israel doesn't seem to be interested in just coexistence

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Speaker 2: with really any of their neighbors.

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Speaker 4: But you have another Linery said, it is not Iran

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Speaker 4: that is a supporter of terrorism in the region. He

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Speaker 4: said that a lot because you could tell from his perspective,

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Speaker 4: He's like, we're constantly showing restraint and they're constantly killing civilians.

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Speaker 4: How are we the terrorists? That's kind of their perspective.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, how many new wars have we started? For example,

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Speaker 2: let me put D two up on the screen and

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Speaker 2: just get your reaction to this news item. Iran AIRS footage,

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Speaker 2: it claim shows details of alleged Israeli alleged Israeli nuclear program,

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Speaker 2: Iranian state TV broadcast images of documents and footage claims

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Speaker 2: relate to allege Israeli nuclear activities. The documentary shows copies

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Speaker 2: of passports had to identify Israeli scientists, along with info

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Speaker 2: on the location of military sites. AIRS footage said to

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Speaker 2: have been filmed inside the Demona reactor in southern Israel,

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Speaker 2: and they said in this documentary, the Intel Minister of

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Speaker 2: Iran said that they had used information obtained in June

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Speaker 2: to hit sensitive sites inside Israel that month. And they

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Speaker 2: claimed before the June WARTO acquired thousands of classified Israeli documents,

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Speaker 2: including details on nuclear and military sites. So a kind

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Speaker 2: of show of intel force. I guess here saying listen,

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Speaker 2: you're not the only ones with spies and access to

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Speaker 2: this kind of you know, inside intelligence.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, they had teased this, if you remember, right before

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Speaker 4: the war, they basically saying they had everything, and so

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Speaker 4: now they're finally putting some of this out but again

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Speaker 4: it would actually go back to you know, if if

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Speaker 4: any other government had this kind of stuff, they'd leak

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Speaker 4: it to the New York Times, or they'd find more

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Speaker 4: sophisticated ways to.

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Speaker 2: Publish rather than in some weird run in state TV.

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Speaker 5: To run in state TV documentary that is okay, that's fine,

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Speaker 5: But like, right, if they had SKDK advising.

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Speaker 4: Them on like how do you want to influence of

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Speaker 4: the American public on this, yeah, they'd be like, I

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Speaker 4: know who you need to leak this stuff too, But

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Speaker 4: yeah they don't.

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Speaker 5: They just don't have that.

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Speaker 4: So and that's another function of sanctions, which to me,

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Speaker 4: the america first argument against these kinds of sanctions would

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Speaker 4: be America should make the best foreign policy decisions that

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Speaker 4: it can in its own interests, and in order to

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Speaker 4: do that, you either want no foreign interference, no foreign

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Speaker 4: influence in your decision making, or you want to hear

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Speaker 4: from everybody m hm. And we're not going to kick

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Speaker 4: them all out. So to me, it's just like Russia

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Speaker 4: should be able to level the bron North Korea, like

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Speaker 4: let them all lobby, let them all make their case,

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Speaker 4: make it in the open. They've got to register with

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Speaker 4: FARA we want to know who their agents are, what

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Speaker 4: and what case they're making, and then we make a decision.

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Speaker 4: But this this idea where you hear where Trump hears

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Speaker 4: only from one side and zero from the other and

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Speaker 4: then and then launches us into a war is not

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Speaker 4: helpful for us.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, babies making another trip to DC.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, incredible. There you go, like he really has

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Speaker 4: not had to do any laundry in.

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Speaker 6: Is this whole year? Get it taken care of.

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Speaker 2: You've also been tracking the story on North Carolina, so

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna let you set this one up as well.

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Speaker 2: But you know, a sovereign ryan covered and something we've

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Speaker 2: been tracking skyrocketing electricity prices, I feel is one of

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Speaker 2: the undercovered stories you know, of the of the year, truly,

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Speaker 2: both in terms of people's lives, also in terms of

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Speaker 2: how it could have political impact.

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Speaker 6: And there's some.

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Speaker 2: Pretty nefarious legislation that is moving through state legislatures and

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Speaker 2: specifically in the state of Northern Carolina.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and it moved all the way through and this

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Speaker 4: is yeah, this is this is a story that's happening

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Speaker 4: all across the country, but North Carolina is a particularly

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Speaker 4: interesting place for us to look because North Carolina actually

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Speaker 4: really leaned heavily into renewable energy, clean energy, Like they

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Speaker 4: have tens of thousands, maybe like maybe over seventy thousand

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Speaker 4: jobs like just directly in the clean energy industry. And

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Speaker 4: because of that, the North Carolina senators you know, have

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Speaker 4: been very stridely defending clean energy in the Senate. Tom

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Speaker 4: Tillis announced his retirement the Republican senator from North Carolina

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Speaker 4: in a speech opposing Trump's Big Beautiful Bill. He ended

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Speaker 4: his care It's like you have no idea how bad

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Speaker 4: this is going to be for North Carolina. I'm out

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Speaker 4: of here, Like you're gonna primary me over this?

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Speaker 5: Fine?

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Speaker 4: Like I quite like this is so stupid. So let's

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Speaker 4: start actually with East six control room. Sorry this is

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Speaker 4: out out of order here, but this is a report

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Speaker 4: from just just this week that solar company Blue Ridge

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Speaker 4: Power is like just straight up shutting down. So this

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Speaker 4: layoff of five hundred and seventeen workers that you see

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Speaker 4: up on the screen Asheville and Fayettville is everybody like

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Speaker 4: this like they're just they're just rolling up shop. This

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Speaker 4: is a company that it was launched in twenty twenty

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Speaker 4: one at the you know the height of the kind

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Speaker 4: of pivot towards clean energy in North Carolina being the

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Speaker 4: place where there was so much of this was going,

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Speaker 4: and we try to remember some of these numbers. So

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Speaker 4: the Blue Ridge reports that it built seven gigawatts of

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Speaker 4: solar in rush infttructure. Across the country it had like

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Speaker 4: something like thirty gigawatts in the works, which we'll get

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Speaker 4: back to those numbers, because if you hear from Trump

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Speaker 4: solar and winder fake to giant hoax, they don't actually

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Speaker 4: produce any power. Thirty gigawatts is an enormous amount of power,

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Speaker 4: something like seventy to ninety Somewhere between seventy and ninety

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Speaker 4: percent of all new power added to the grid over

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Speaker 4: the last several years has been renewable energy. So the

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Speaker 4: idea that it's like doesn't do anything is complete nonsense.

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Speaker 4: So we'll get back to this in a second. Now

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Speaker 4: we can go to E one. So over the summer,

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Speaker 4: there was a bill pushed through North Carolina legislature called

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Speaker 4: S two sixty six, which did something utterly extraordinary and

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Speaker 4: first of all, its lead its lead sponsor was the

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Speaker 4: former CEO of Duke Energy, which is like the big

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Speaker 4: utility in Virginia. In North Carolina, I've got they've got

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Speaker 4: this appellation area locked down.

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Speaker 6: Uh.

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Speaker 4: So this former CEO pushes through this bill, and what

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Speaker 4: does the bill do. It says that going forward, if

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Speaker 4: there is a contest between consumers and data centers over

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Speaker 4: who gets the power and if there's limited power, the

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Speaker 4: data centers are going to get it. And when it

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Speaker 4: comes to who's going to pay for it, it's going

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Speaker 4: to be more on the consumer side then it's going

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Speaker 4: to be on the data center side, like a straight

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Speaker 4: up giveaway to the data center industry in North Carolina.

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Speaker 6: Uh.

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Speaker 4: Just and you're like, wait, that's impossible, seriously, no, but

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Speaker 4: go look it up, like that's that's actually what the

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Speaker 4: bill did.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: And the numbers, if I'm recalling correctly, it's like, right now,

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Speaker 2: like regular residential consumers, they use forty percent of the

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Speaker 2: power and they pay forty percent of the cost In

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Speaker 2: if you just kept the landscape the same with this

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Speaker 2: bill pass, they would now pay Basically, they would still

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Speaker 2: consumer forty percent of the electricity and they would pay fifty.

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Speaker 6: Percent of the costs.

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Speaker 2: Right so they're not putting everything, but your electricity bills

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Speaker 2: are going to go up to subsidize these giant data

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Speaker 2: centers backed by some of the largest and most profitable

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Speaker 2: companies on the planet.

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Speaker 5: Yeah no, yeah, exactly incredible.

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Speaker 4: And so meanwhile, North Carolina is now So that bill

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Speaker 4: was vetoed by Democratic Governor Josh Stein and then a

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Speaker 4: combination of Republicans and a handful of Democrats overrode his

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Speaker 4: veto in the legislature, so that bill is now law.

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Speaker 4: Now we'll get into some of the data center activity

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Speaker 4: that's going on in North Carolina. We could roll E

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Speaker 4: two here for more perfect union.

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Speaker 7: I'm standing at the site of Meta's new ten billion

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Speaker 7: dollar data center in Richland Parish, Louisiana. It'll be the

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Speaker 7: largest data center the company has ever built, about the

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Speaker 7: size of Manhattan. The project is already bringing about big

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Speaker 7: changes to this small town way of life here.

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Speaker 1: A lot of folks are on their own and if

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Speaker 1: they are on this very strict budget, they're.

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Speaker 4: Going to have to adapt, and if they don't, they

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Speaker 4: won't make it.

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Speaker 7: I don't know. They've gutting twenty five hundred acres of

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Speaker 7: land just.

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Speaker 8: So we can mind data, so that we can better market.

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Speaker 6: And sale people stuff.

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Speaker 1: I feel like it's getting carried away.

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Speaker 6: Why are the data centers coming to the small rural towns.

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Speaker 6: They're coming here to benefit themselves.

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Speaker 2: They're not coming here with the intentions on benefiting the community.

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Speaker 5: And see that's a little bit unfair.

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Speaker 4: They're not just mining data so that they can more

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Speaker 4: effectively market stuff. We can put up E three here.

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Speaker 4: You can also what chat with a horse?

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Speaker 5: That is that right?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's right, a literal horse.

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Speaker 2: This is on Meta I believe, where you can create

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Speaker 2: these custom chatbots.

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Speaker 6: Another one was like rich but strict parents?

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Speaker 5: Was I know?

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Speaker 2: Another one that was popular on there. So yeah, so

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Speaker 2: the glories of technology.

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Speaker 5: And if you're just listening to this, the tweet was

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Speaker 5: something like your electric bill is going up thirty percent,

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Speaker 5: so you can chat with this horse. And of course

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Speaker 5: it's not just energy, it's also water. You can put

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Speaker 5: up E four.

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Speaker 4: This is another North Carolina Local North Carolina News headline.

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Speaker 4: AI data centers would need millions of gallons of North

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Speaker 4: Carolina's water supply a day. Everybody loves these is a

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Speaker 4: free chat chatting with the horse. Turns out, shockingly no

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Speaker 4: such thing as free put up E five here. So

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Speaker 4: Amazon itself is planning to invest ten billion with a

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Speaker 4: B dollars in North Carolina data centers in an AI push,

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Speaker 4: which is finally starting to be controversial because people are like,

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Speaker 4: hold on a second, we're paying, Like, how how are

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Speaker 4: we benefiting from this?

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Speaker 5: This is this, this is not is not so cool.

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Speaker 5: So you were you were saying that they're trying to

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Speaker 5: do that in your neighborhood too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, at the update on it, it looks like the

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Speaker 2: border supervisors said no, and Amazon is doing because they

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Speaker 2: have a right to build this data center in our

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Speaker 2: town apparently.

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Speaker 5: But Abundance Bros got to swoop in.

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Speaker 6: That's right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they got to get they got to get these

444
00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 2: these nimbi's in check.

445
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:26,879
Speaker 6: I guess.

446
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 2: But I mean, there's so much to be said about

447
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 2: this problem, both from a Naomi Klein talks about this

448
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 2: movement as being sort of anti creation because they want

449
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 2: to sort of suck up all of the natural resources,

450
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 2: whether it's energy or whether it's water, whether it's just

451
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,919
Speaker 2: land is another big part of it, in order to

452
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 2: create this sort of like weird AI shadow world that

453
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 2: is only going to benefit you know, economically, it's going

454
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 2: to further consolidate wealth and power in the hands.

455
00:23:59,400 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 6: Of a few.

456
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,760
Speaker 2: So it's obviously very dystopian. I don't think it takes

457
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 2: a rocket scientist to figure out, given that we do

458
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:08,480
Speaker 2: know a lot about our political system and most people

459
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 2: have some experience with it, that when you have that

460
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 2: contest between regular random person and giant corporation for the

461
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 2: energy and who's going to put the bill, what direction

462
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 2: they're going to go in because I guess, like Iran,

463
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 2: we don't have lobbyists. Yeah, and you know the doup

464
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 2: energy guys are going to win out every time.

465
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 4: So right, you can show see how democratic the North

466
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 4: Carolina legislature is low D democratic. It's like maybe ten

467
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 4: ten power centers or data centers or whatever.

468
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 5: There's millions of people, right, and yet the data will

469
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 5: all suffer that data centers will win.

470
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 4: Speaking of democracies, the chairman she was at the UN

471
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 4: this week and followed Trump's speech where he told everybody

472
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 4: that wind and solar is a hoax.

473
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:04,439
Speaker 2: Climate changes, how it's a scam, Green energy is a scam.

474
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 4: Somehow, Chairman she is being completely fooled by the hoax.

475
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 5: So let's roll some of his remarks before the UN.

476
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 2: So he says, however, the world may change, Ryan China

477
00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 2: will not slow down its climate actions, will not reduce

478
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:28,120
Speaker 2: its support for international cooperation, and will not cease its

479
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 2: efforts to build a community with a shared future for mankind.

480
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 2: China is willing to work with all parties to earnestly

481
00:25:34,680 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 2: honor the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, do the

482
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 2: utmost respectively and collectively, and build a clean, beautiful and

483
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,560
Speaker 2: sustainable world together. And I think we probably get the

484
00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 2: point of what's going on here. You know, I was

485
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 2: seeing about the way the political dynamics of this ryan

486
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 2: have flipped because you started with the layouts at this

487
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 2: solar company, and you know, previously it was like the

488
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 2: lefty green energy people who are supposedly the job killing,

489
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 2: you know, haters. And now we're in a totally different dynamic.

490
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 2: I mean, first of all, the industry has progressed in

491
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 2: the science has progressed significantly. The tech has progressed significantly,

492
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 2: so that it's much more powerful and much more affordable.

493
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 2: And you can see that, you know, China is leading

494
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 2: the world in development of all off not most, you know, most,

495
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:25,359
Speaker 2: if not all, of these technologies. The Biden administration made

496
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,199
Speaker 2: like the tiniest bit of investment in that direction and

497
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 2: it was starting to bear some fruit. And now Trump,

498
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,120
Speaker 2: it's not like he has an all of the above strategy.

499
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:37,159
Speaker 2: He has an active vendetta against any sort of green energy,

500
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:42,639
Speaker 2: which is incredibly counterproductive for him politically, certainly for American consumers.

501
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 2: You can see it in the electricity price hikes, which

502
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 2: you know is partly about the big beautiful bill, partly

503
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 2: about these AI data centers, partly about increased demand because

504
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 2: of the climate crisis, and you know, you can see

505
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 2: it in terms of job losses like this.

506
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 6: So it seems to me like the.

507
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,959
Speaker 2: Historic political dynamic that Trumps still has like wrapped in

508
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 2: his nineteen nineties brain has now reached an inflection point

509
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 2: where you know, the landscape of both jobs and cheap

510
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 2: energy is all in the direction of you know, really

511
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 2: investing in renewable and green energy.

512
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're maxed out on the dirty stuff. If you

513
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 4: want to expand the energy production of the country, you

514
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 4: have to do it through these new types of energies.

515
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,919
Speaker 4: And Trump doesn't want to do it. So we're just

516
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,359
Speaker 4: gonna We're just going to get a super high electric bills.

517
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 5: And then rolling blackouts.

518
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 6: Sounds great.

519
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 5: China'll be okay.

520
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 2: Though, have another important AI story for you as well

521
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,119
Speaker 2: related to this. So let's go ahead and bring our

522
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,959
Speaker 2: author in. Now, we're very fortunate if we joined this

523
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 2: morning by an AI expert who has a new book

524
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 2: out with a dire warning. Let's go and put the

525
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 2: book jacket up on the screen. So Nate Source is

526
00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 2: the president of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, really focuses

527
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 2: a lot on what is called AI alignment, and he

528
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: has just co authored a new book title that you

529
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:02,360
Speaker 2: can see there. If anyone build it, everyone dies, why

530
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:06,760
Speaker 2: superhuman AI would kill us all. So no if sands

531
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 2: or butts, if they develop superintelligence, your argument is that

532
00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:11,919
Speaker 2: humanity will be destroyed.

533
00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 6: Me welcome, great to have you.

534
00:28:13,720 --> 00:28:15,120
Speaker 5: My condolence is about the book title.

535
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean, I know this was an intentional choice.

536
00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:21,040
Speaker 2: You don't want to say, well maybe and if we don't,

537
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:25,920
Speaker 2: it's possible. You know, this is if superintelligence is developed,

538
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 2: this is what's going to happen. What gives you confidence

539
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 2: that level of confidence in that prediction.

540
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 8: You know, there's a bunch of reasons that make it

541
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 8: look somewhat overdetermined. So the way we build modern AI

542
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 8: is more like growing it than like carefully crafting it.

543
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 8: No one knows exactly what's going on inside these things.

544
00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 8: Humans understand the process that tweaks all sorts of numbers,

545
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 8: you know, trillions and trillions of numbers inside these ais.

546
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 8: They don't understand what comes out the other end. We've

547
00:28:55,040 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 8: already seen signs that they are, you know, developing the

548
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 8: very beginnings of preferences and drives perhaps that nobody wants,

549
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:06,239
Speaker 8: nobody asked for. So that's that's one whole part that

550
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 8: makes it difficult. Another thing that makes it difficult is

551
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 8: we don't get second tries. I'm building smarter than human ais.

552
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 8: If we build machines that are smarter than us, that

553
00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 8: can develop their own technology, develop their own infrastructure, and

554
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 8: if they run off autonomously and you know, grab control

555
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 8: of the world's resources, there's no redos if they're going

556
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 8: in the wrong direction, that's a very difficult problem for science.

557
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 8: And then you know, a third branch is the current

558
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 8: industry does not really seem to be taking this issue

559
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 8: with the gravity it merits. You know, the the approaches

560
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 8: on this on this problem, even the people who are

561
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 8: most optimistic say there's you know, a one and four

562
00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 8: chance this kills everybody or does an equivalent disaster. I

563
00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 8: think those numbers are low, but the field is racing

564
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 8: ahead even while. You know, everyone from the Nobel Prize

565
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 8: when godfather of the field to the lab heads to

566
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 8: half the researchers say this is incredibly dangerous stuff. People

567
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 8: are sort of locked in a race. Each of those

568
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 8: three individually would be hard to deal with if that

569
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 8: was our only problem. All three problems seem to me

570
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 8: to mean we just need to back off.

571
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 5: How does how does a super intelligent AI solve the

572
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 5: energy problem?

573
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:26,200
Speaker 6: Like?

574
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 5: Where do?

575
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 4: Where does it get the energy to sustain itself indefinitely?

576
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 8: So a modern AI runs in a data center that

577
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 8: takes as much electricity as a small city. A human

578
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 8: runs on a budg as much electricity as a large

579
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 8: light bulb. So we know it's possible technologically to run

580
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 8: very smart or at least human level smart intelligence on

581
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 8: less electricity, less matter.

582
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 5: AI isn't there yet.

583
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:58,239
Speaker 8: But if you get much smarter than human AIS that

584
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 8: can think ten thousand times faster, that can copy themselves,

585
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:03,000
Speaker 8: that don't need to sleep, that don't need to eat,

586
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 8: and they work on these challenges, you know there there

587
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 8: may be a period of time where they rely on

588
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 8: human infrastructure, but eventually they're going to get off of

589
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 8: the human infrastructure, get on to to you know, more efficient,

590
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 8: more efficient systems, and you know, automate the infrastructure that

591
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 8: humans are currently doing. You know that can ultimately be

592
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 8: done by robots which are uh, which are less, which

593
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 8: are more robust, operate faster, more reliable. Eventually, you're gonna

594
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 8: if we keep pushing the machines that are smarter than us,

595
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 8: you'll eventually see them on their own infrastructure.

596
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 2: One of the things that was shift in how it

597
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 2: was conceptualizing a ar aire somewhat of a shift, and

598
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:46,680
Speaker 2: I've done some reading prior to your book as well,

599
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 2: was your description which you mentioned before, of this isn't

600
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 2: something we created, this is something we crew, which is

601
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 2: very different from other technologies. You know, I don't know

602
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 2: how this laptop works, but the person who engineered it

603
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,959
Speaker 2: knows how it fits together and has a predictable like

604
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 2: idea of what it's going to do if I push

605
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 2: this button or that button. AI is totally different from that,

606
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 2: and I think is useful your way of conceptualizing it

607
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 2: as basically like we created these sort of alien beings

608
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 2: and are intentionally racing towards trying to make them vastly

609
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 2: more intelligent than we are. Can you speak a little

610
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 2: bit to that for people who haven't like conceptualized it

611
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 2: in that way, and why that creates a more profound

612
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 2: risk than people may realize.

613
00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely so.

614
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 8: You know, as you say in your laptop, if something

615
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:38,880
Speaker 8: goes wrong, if there's an error or you know, a crash,

616
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:41,520
Speaker 8: there's a programmer who could in principle trace that down

617
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 8: and say exactly what happened?

618
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 5: Do they know what every line of code means? They

619
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 5: could fix it?

620
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 8: Right When an AI threatens a reporter, which started happening

621
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 8: a couple of years ago, When an AI in the

622
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 8: lab tries to escape, which we've seen in some lab conditions,

623
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 8: we don't know what's going on. Maybe it's maybe it's

624
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 8: sort of role playing. We can't tell because these things

625
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 8: are are grown. But you know, when an AI trust

626
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 8: to escape, whe and AI, you know, encourages a team

627
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 8: to commit suicide, nobody can go in and find exactly

628
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:18,000
Speaker 8: some line of code that caused that to happen. You know,

629
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 8: it's not like there's there's some bug in the in

630
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:23,760
Speaker 8: the human handcrafted lines where they can say, oh, whoops,

631
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:26,280
Speaker 8: I didn't know that this would have that interaction, right

632
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 8: these The way modern AI is made is we take

633
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 8: a huge amount of computing power in a huge amount

634
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 8: of data, and there's a known process for tweaking the

635
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 8: numbers inside the computers to better predict the data. But

636
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 8: you know this, this runs for a huge amount of time.

637
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 8: You know, these things can take a year to train.

638
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 8: We understand the process for tweaking the numbers, what comes

639
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 8: out at the other end completely opaque. There are people

640
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 8: who are trying to understand what's going on in there,

641
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 8: and they're making small amounts of progress, but the progress

642
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 8: they're making is is very slow compared to how fast

643
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 8: these these ais scale up. And we're already seeing signs

644
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 8: of ais doing things nobody wanted, doing things nobody asked for,

645
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 8: and we're seeing signs that the people who would like

646
00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 8: to be in charge can't point these ais where they

647
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:17,480
Speaker 8: would like to point them. You know, you have the

648
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:22,799
Speaker 8: case of Elon Musk's XAI and their Grock chatbot, which

649
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 8: was speaking too liberal for their tastes, so they tried

650
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:28,359
Speaker 8: to make it speak you know, less woke, and then

651
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 8: it started declaring itself. Hitler right on neither end of

652
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 8: that spectrum presumably was where they wanted the AI to be.

653
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 8: But these aren't programmers carefully crafting things exactly as they want.

654
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 5: These are people sort.

655
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 8: Of growing a whole new type of entity that they

656
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 8: have very little direction over.

657
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 5: Back to the to the robot points. So how do

658
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,440
Speaker 5: the AIS interact with the with the robots?

659
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 8: So, you know, robots are an easy way to visualize

660
00:34:57,440 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 8: AI is getting control over the physical world, and we

661
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 8: are seeing people will build lots and lots of robots

662
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 8: and say, you know, we want to train the AIS

663
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 8: to be able to steer in a robot body. Pretty plausibly,

664
00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:10,520
Speaker 8: humanity is just going to hand lots of robot bodies

665
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:13,080
Speaker 8: to AIS because people want to they think would be

666
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 8: cool or profitable. Even if it wasn't for robots. There's

667
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 8: all sorts of ways that AIS could have all sorts

668
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 8: of effects on the world. You know, the Internet is

669
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 8: not a separate digital realm that is that is blocked

670
00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:29,839
Speaker 8: off from the from the material realm. We've already seen AISH,

671
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 8: you know, wrap certain humans around their fingers. Some of

672
00:35:33,600 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 8: those humans are maybe a little bit more on the

673
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,200
Speaker 8: vulnerable side to begin with. But that doesn't really matter

674
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,680
Speaker 8: when you're getting the humans to you know, send messages

675
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 8: to other humans in a code they don't understand, or

676
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:45,240
Speaker 8: when you're getting those humans to you know, do tasks

677
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:47,840
Speaker 8: that the human doesn't quite know the reason. You know,

678
00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 8: we've already seen send them money. Send them money. Yeah,

679
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 8: a lot of people will do things for money. So

680
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 8: you know, we've we've already seen ais in live conditions.

681
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:00,399
Speaker 8: And again maybe they're just play acting, as you know how,

682
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 8: but we've already seen AIS in lab conditions, try to

683
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 8: avoid shutdown, try to escape the lab. Right now, it's

684
00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:10,399
Speaker 8: cute because they're not smart enough to succeed, but you know,

685
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 8: the warning signs are there, and what's missing is the intelligence.

686
00:36:13,480 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 8: And these labs are racing to make these ais smarter

687
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 8: and smarter.

688
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,280
Speaker 2: And so you go through in the book a bunch

689
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 2: of the different like, you know, the cope basically from

690
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:24,359
Speaker 2: the industry of why it's going to be fine, right,

691
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 2: And one of the things that is, I don't know.

692
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 2: I think probably one of the most persuasive cases of

693
00:36:31,000 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 2: why this will all work out okay is that, okay,

694
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 2: us humans may not be smart enough to figure out

695
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 2: the alignment problem. But we can use the AI we're

696
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 2: developing to figure out the alignment problem before we create

697
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,480
Speaker 2: the superintelligence that escapes and tries to kill us all.

698
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 2: What do you make of that argument? And do you

699
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 2: think that that's the best argument or there other ones

700
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:52,839
Speaker 2: that you think are more persuasive.

701
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 8: You know, best is maybe a low bar. I don't

702
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:02,319
Speaker 8: personally put much stock in that. One reason, you know,

703
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 8: there's there's maybe two reasons.

704
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:04,479
Speaker 5: One is.

705
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:11,480
Speaker 8: If you you know, humanity has been human scientists have

706
00:37:11,560 --> 00:37:14,560
Speaker 8: been trying to figure out intelligence since at least nineteen

707
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,839
Speaker 8: fifty four with the Dartmouth conference that sort of kick

708
00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 8: off the field of AI, which maybe as nineteen fifty six,

709
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 8: I'm not quite sure, and they never really made progress

710
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 8: in figuring out how intelligence works. The current AI revolution

711
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 8: is that we figured out how to grow the intelligence right,

712
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 8: and we don't understand what's going on in there. We

713
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 8: can't you know, carefully direct what's going on in there.

714
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 8: Figuring out how to make these ais good, figuring out

715
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:42,160
Speaker 8: how to make them have good effects. That would require

716
00:37:42,200 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 8: a lot more understanding of what's going on in there

717
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:46,839
Speaker 8: that humans, you know, were like, oh man, that's tough.

718
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:48,839
Speaker 8: Maybe we'll toss it to the AIS. But if you're

719
00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:50,880
Speaker 8: trying toss that to the AIS, it's still going to

720
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:53,959
Speaker 8: be tough for them. So you've either you know, got

721
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 8: to make those ais. You know what's if ais are

722
00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:59,120
Speaker 8: sort of dumber than humans, they're not really going to

723
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:01,839
Speaker 8: be much help. If the AIS are substantially smarter than

724
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:03,760
Speaker 8: humans or so they can figure out all the intelligence already,

725
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,799
Speaker 8: you're sort of already in trouble, right, And so that's

726
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,920
Speaker 8: one of the fundamental like why might this be tricky reasons?

727
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 8: Although then there's sort of a deeper reason of you know,

728
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,760
Speaker 8: humanity just does not we're just not taking the problem

729
00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:21,520
Speaker 8: with the seriousness it deserves. You know, ten years ago,

730
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 8: people said, oh, well, this won't be a danger because

731
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 8: no one would ever be insane enough to put an

732
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:29,240
Speaker 8: AI on the internet. You know, they'll only be dealt

733
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 8: with by a highly trained professional gatekeeper who will make

734
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 8: sure that their effects in the world are like only

735
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 8: beneficial ones. Right, And ten years ago we would get

736
00:38:38,040 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 8: arguments of like that would still be difficult.

737
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:41,840
Speaker 5: It would still be difficult.

738
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,000
Speaker 8: To get you know, miracle medical technology out of this AI,

739
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 8: because it's if you don't understand what it's doing. If

740
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:48,839
Speaker 8: you don't understand, if it's smarter than you and it's

741
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,319
Speaker 8: coming up with solutions that you can generate yourself, it's

742
00:38:51,360 --> 00:38:53,359
Speaker 8: hard for you to tell which ones are good, which

743
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,800
Speaker 8: ones are ill. You know, you can't make hands that

744
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:57,680
Speaker 8: are only wielded for good purpose. That was how we

745
00:38:57,680 --> 00:39:02,080
Speaker 8: would argue ten years ago. Now people are putting ass

746
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 8: on the internet the moment they possibly can. You know,

747
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 8: the real world doesn't do the like careful clever. Maybe

748
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 8: if we do this exactly right, well, is just not

749
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:12,879
Speaker 8: the route we take.

750
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 2: Another of the arguments that is made is basically like, okay, well,

751
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 2: if you compare our intelligence to like an ant, right

752
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:22,880
Speaker 2: sort of like equivalent to what we're thinking about in

753
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 2: terms of our intelligence versus a super intelligence. And I

754
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:28,400
Speaker 2: don't know that we've been great for ant society or

755
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:30,879
Speaker 2: particularly care whether ants live or die, but we're not

756
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 2: actively trying to like mass murder them, or we haven't

757
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 2: succeeded in mass murdering them. I guess you would say, so,

758
00:39:36,520 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 2: why wouldn't its relationship be to us more like us

759
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 2: to ants? Or Another thing you talk about in the

760
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 2: book is like, you know, maybe we'll be cute little

761
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:46,399
Speaker 2: pets for them, Like, maybe that's not great, but we're

762
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 2: still living, like we're still around, and they like, you know,

763
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 2: put pat us on the head and give us.

764
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:51,440
Speaker 6: Our food and bowl or whatever.

765
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 5: Yeah.

766
00:39:52,080 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 8: You know, there are people who object to the title

767
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:57,160
Speaker 8: on the grounds that, you know, maybe humans will be

768
00:39:57,719 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 8: kept as pets, or maybe somehow back up copies of

769
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,399
Speaker 8: humans will be made, and then if the AI ever

770
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 8: travels the stars, you know, much later in the future,

771
00:40:05,080 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 8: maybe it would sell us the distant Aliens or something.

772
00:40:08,080 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 8: If these are humanity's best hopes for AI, it seems

773
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 8: to me that we should really be backing off. You know,

774
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 8: I could I could say more about well, be a pet. Yeah,

775
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 8: I could say more about why I expect the AI

776
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:23,360
Speaker 8: to kill us anyway, which is mainly that you know,

777
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 8: humans kill ants when they are on the ground. We're

778
00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:31,720
Speaker 8: building a skyscraper. And if an AI you know, builds

779
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:34,080
Speaker 8: lots of infrastructure across the whole surface of the Earth,

780
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 8: it doesn't need to hate you. It just you know,

781
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 8: maybe you die as a side effect. That's that's my

782
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:40,960
Speaker 8: top guests. But but yeah, could they I keep us

783
00:40:40,960 --> 00:40:41,520
Speaker 8: as pets?

784
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 5: Sure?

785
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:44,800
Speaker 8: But again, if yeah, if that's if that's our real hope,

786
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,239
Speaker 8: that seems like another sign that we should be backing

787
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 8: off from this one.

788
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 4: What's the what are the different mechanisms by which it

789
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 4: would come true that they would kill us? Like, yeah,

790
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 4: it's terminator, they're shooting at us, Like what like they

791
00:40:59,320 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 4: super bug?

792
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, like they turn off all the electricity

793
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:04,839
Speaker 5: and we just like kill each other.

794
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 8: So from the perspective of the AI, you know, it

795
00:41:07,040 --> 00:41:10,479
Speaker 8: doesn't want like it if it has if it doesn't

796
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 8: care about us one way or the other. The reasons

797
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 8: to kill humans are A, humans could make another AI

798
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 8: which was a competitor, and B humans could do things

799
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 8: like launching the nukes, which would be at least an inconvenience.

800
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 5: But the reasons to keep.

801
00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 8: Humans around are that they're running the energy infrastructure, they're

802
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 8: running the supply chain. So from the perspective of an AI,

803
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 8: it's sort of it's not like it's immediately trying to

804
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:35,080
Speaker 8: kill humans. It's like it's trying to get on a

805
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 8: more efficient, more reliable energy infrastructure. And then you know,

806
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 8: a top guess is that we die, not because it

807
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:45,800
Speaker 8: literally tries to kill us, but because it just starts building.

808
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 5: You know, automated factories. You know.

809
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:50,920
Speaker 8: Sam Altman the other day was talking about data centers

810
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 8: that in an automated way, build more data centers. Right,

811
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 8: once you have like an automated loop of infrastructure building infrastructure,

812
00:41:57,280 --> 00:42:00,000
Speaker 8: and that starts Perliff rating, maybe we just die underfoot.

813
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:03,480
Speaker 5: Right, If the AI tried to kill us.

814
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:06,920
Speaker 8: Because it's worried AboutUs launching the nukes, because it worried

815
00:42:06,960 --> 00:42:09,759
Speaker 8: about US creating competitors, you know, sure, maybe maybe a

816
00:42:09,800 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 8: good guess as it makes a super bug, you know,

817
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 8: some some lethal virus. Maybe it makes something you know,

818
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 8: even even more deadly. You know, that's a little bit

819
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 8: like someone in the eighteen hundreds trying to predict war

820
00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 8: in the year two thousand. Right, they might be able

821
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:25,080
Speaker 8: to guess, so they'll be stronger explosives. They're not going

822
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:28,600
Speaker 8: to be able to guess nukes, right. Super intelligence hard

823
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:30,799
Speaker 8: to predict exactly how it wins. But it's a little

824
00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 8: bit like predicting a football game between your your high

825
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:36,040
Speaker 8: school team and an NFL team. You know, I can't

826
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 8: tell you the plays, I can tell.

827
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:37,680
Speaker 5: You the winner.

828
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 2: Another argument would be, okay, look, I'm not personally the

829
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:45,799
Speaker 2: biggas Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg or Sam Altman fan

830
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 2: But surely they're not looking to kill all of humanity.

831
00:42:49,520 --> 00:42:54,360
Speaker 2: So why would these theoretically intelligent individuals pursue a path

832
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 2: that is leading us inexorably towards an apocalypse which would

833
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 2: not only kill all of us, but then their family

834
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 2: and everybody they love to.

835
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, we are in a somewhat fortunate situation

836
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,279
Speaker 8: where some folks just come out and tell us. You know,

837
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 8: Elon Musk earlier this summer said, I resisted doing this

838
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 8: for a while until I realized that I could either

839
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 8: be a bystander or a participant, and I would rather

840
00:43:15,480 --> 00:43:18,160
Speaker 8: be a participant if it's going to happen anyway. And

841
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:20,360
Speaker 8: you know, I think a lot of these folks correctly

842
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 8: know that if they even if they don't jump in

843
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 8: the race, someone else will jump in the race. And

844
00:43:26,719 --> 00:43:28,160
Speaker 8: if they think they can do it better than the

845
00:43:28,160 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 8: next guy, from their perspective, you know, it's it's slightly

846
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 8: better for them to be in the race. But if

847
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:35,719
Speaker 8: you look at what these labheads are saying, you know,

848
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 8: I think Elon Musk was saying, I think there's a

849
00:43:37,280 --> 00:43:39,960
Speaker 8: twenty percent chance to skills everybody. I think the head

850
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 8: of Anthropic was recently saying, I think there's a twenty

851
00:43:41,760 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 8: five percent chance this has like an equivalent level of disaster.

852
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,399
Speaker 8: And this isn't just the lab heads. You know, half

853
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 8: the researchers, if you survey, say there's at least ten

854
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 8: percent chance to skill everybody. The nobel laureate godfather of

855
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:55,839
Speaker 8: the field says this is, you know, at least ten

856
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 8: percent chance, and then in some conversations they'll say higher numbers.

857
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 8: People think this is this is real dangerous. I think

858
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,359
Speaker 8: a lot of these numbers are low. I think you're

859
00:44:04,360 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 8: seeing the people racing are the ones who are most

860
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 8: optimistic about their odds of pulling this off. But no

861
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 8: one's saying, oh this is safe. No one's saying, oh

862
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 8: we're going to be fine. You know, people, people, people

863
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 8: know this is an incredibly risky endeavor. And I mean,

864
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 8: these numbers are tossing around, even if they're lower than mine.

865
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 8: You know, if if a plane was gonna if if

866
00:44:23,400 --> 00:44:25,719
Speaker 8: one engineer was saying, I looked at this plane, I

867
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 8: have some expertise, I think this plane is definitely definitely

868
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 8: going to crash, and some other engineers said, don't listen

869
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:32,440
Speaker 8: to them. They're they're way too pessimistic. This plane is

870
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 8: twenty percent likely to crash, right, you don't get on

871
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:36,400
Speaker 8: the plane plane?

872
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, have you seen don't look up? I have.

873
00:44:40,280 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 4: It feels like if somebody told you there was a

874
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:46,120
Speaker 4: twenty percent chance of the asteroid was going to hit

875
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 4: the Earth and kill.

876
00:44:46,800 --> 00:44:52,280
Speaker 5: Everyone on it. That's a consequential. It's consequential. Good number.

877
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 8: And I you know, I think I think these numbers.

878
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:58,680
Speaker 8: You know, if you look at these people, uh saying

879
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:01,280
Speaker 8: why they think they have, you know, only a twenty

880
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 8: percent chance of it killing us, they'll give ideas like, oh,

881
00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:04,800
Speaker 8: we'll pass the problem to the AIS.

882
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:05,520
Speaker 5: Right.

883
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 8: That's that's sort of a worrying situation. You know, when

884
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 8: when engineers understand how to make a complicated system very safe,

885
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 8: it doesn't sound like them saying, oh, we'll pass it

886
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 8: off to some other you know, we'll punt the problem

887
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 8: down the line.

888
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 1: Right.

889
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 8: If you're talking to like a nuclear reactor engineer who's

890
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,319
Speaker 8: saying why it's going to be safe, they can tell

891
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 8: you, you know, well, we actually know all the byproducts, We

892
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 8: know exactly that things are going to behave, we know

893
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:32,360
Speaker 8: all of the dangerous pathways it may take. We know

894
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 8: why it's not going to take those pathways. We have

895
00:45:34,320 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 8: these mechanisms were shutting things down right the world where

896
00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 8: people are saying, oh, it's going to be fine because

897
00:45:39,000 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 8: where it's going to like pass the problem off to

898
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 8: something else. We can't solve it ourselves, but we think

899
00:45:42,520 --> 00:45:43,719
Speaker 8: we're going to be able to get other things to

900
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 8: solve it. That's that's the situation of early hopeful scientists

901
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:53,480
Speaker 8: who haven't who aren't in a mature field yet, and

902
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 8: early hopeful scientists often get things wrong in the first try.

903
00:45:57,200 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 8: Usually scientists learn by trial and error. You know, the

904
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,360
Speaker 8: first people build rocket engines blow themselves up with the

905
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 8: rocket engines, the first people doing chemistry poison themselves with mercury.

906
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 8: Humanity usually learns from its mistakes, and then it's the

907
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 8: next generation of scientists that do better, and the next

908
00:46:09,320 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 8: generation of scientists that can invent, you know, a working refrigerator,

909
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:16,480
Speaker 8: a working nuclear reactor. In this situation, the hopeful optimists

910
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:19,440
Speaker 8: who are saying everything's going to be easy, they're going

911
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:21,120
Speaker 8: to screw things up the first time, and there's not

912
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:22,359
Speaker 8: going to be any chance to learn.

913
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:24,799
Speaker 2: There was an analogy in your book that you lay

914
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 2: in as well, that for me was again intellectually useful.

915
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 2: Basically comparing AI researchers of today to alchemists. Yeah, where

916
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:35,560
Speaker 2: it's like, you know, alchemists would study like, I know,

917
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 2: how what this when I put this with this, what

918
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:39,879
Speaker 2: the reaction is, and I've tracked it very closely, I

919
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 2: know everything there is to about it, But they had

920
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:47,160
Speaker 2: no idea of the actual like chemical reactions that underpin

921
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 2: those reactions, those you know, what they're experiencing and observing

922
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:52,279
Speaker 2: in the real world, and that it's sort of like

923
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:55,400
Speaker 2: that with AI. Like even the people who have developed

924
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 2: and understand, you know, the gradient system and how this

925
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 2: all works, it's not like they really understand intelligence. It's

926
00:47:03,120 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 2: like not like they really know what's going on underneath

927
00:47:05,560 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 2: the hood, which is terrifying to actually think about when

928
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:11,960
Speaker 2: you consider the risk here. And even like let's say

929
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 2: that you're completely skeptical of this and you think that

930
00:47:14,400 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 2: this is all hogwash and you don't think that any

931
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:17,319
Speaker 2: of this is going to come to pass.

932
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:18,399
Speaker 6: It's just the alarmist et cetera.

933
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 2: I mean, we just covered the way the amount of

934
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 2: resources that are being sucked up in the way electricity

935
00:47:22,719 --> 00:47:24,960
Speaker 2: prices are skyrocketing, and the way that all of these

936
00:47:24,960 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 2: guys will also come out and say there's going to

937
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 2: be no need for human labor and the social contract

938
00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:32,160
Speaker 2: needs to be written, et cetera. So you're calling not

939
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:36,320
Speaker 2: for some like reformists. Hey, we need an AI alignment

940
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:40,880
Speaker 2: report from all these companies, or we need to centralize

941
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 2: AI development, which would be a more extraordinary proposal, and

942
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:45,480
Speaker 2: have you know all nations contribute.

943
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 6: You're saying shut it down.

944
00:47:48,520 --> 00:47:52,879
Speaker 2: So talk about that, and why you because I mean,

945
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:55,320
Speaker 2: you know, frankly, when I hear that, it's that feels

946
00:47:55,320 --> 00:47:59,080
Speaker 2: hopeless because we can't even you know, agree on basic things,

947
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 2: let alone getting the entire higher world to agree.

948
00:48:02,040 --> 00:48:03,719
Speaker 6: We're not going to do any of this.

949
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:06,640
Speaker 2: And our whole stock market is now like based on

950
00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 2: AI hopium. So what makes you come to that being

951
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 2: the required solution for humanity to persist?

952
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 8: Yeah, So, for for one thing, we don't need to

953
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 8: give up on chat GPT, we don't need to give

954
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:26,560
Speaker 8: up on self driving cars. We need to give up

955
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:29,880
Speaker 8: on AI for medical applications and trying to get cancer cures.

956
00:48:30,680 --> 00:48:32,479
Speaker 8: The thing that we need to stop is the race

957
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:36,080
Speaker 8: towards smarter than human AI. The race towards superintelligence. This

958
00:48:36,239 --> 00:48:37,840
Speaker 8: is what the labs say they are racing towards.

959
00:48:38,440 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 6: Uh.

960
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:41,080
Speaker 8: But you know, I think a lot of folks in

961
00:48:41,080 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 8: the policy world don't understand that this is what we're

962
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 8: racing towards.

963
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 5: This is what's coming down the line.

964
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:49,920
Speaker 8: They think of the AI as just sort of you know, chotbots,

965
00:48:50,000 --> 00:48:52,160
Speaker 8: which are smart in some ways and dumb in others.

966
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:52,839
Speaker 6: Uh.

967
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 8: You know, we we we can still do those. It's

968
00:48:56,640 --> 00:49:00,399
Speaker 8: the it's the racing to smarter and smarter and racing

969
00:49:00,440 --> 00:49:03,160
Speaker 8: to smarter than human AI, which is a suicide race

970
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:09,440
Speaker 8: in terms of whether it's possible. You know, I would

971
00:49:10,320 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 8: keep having hope at least until we see politicians start

972
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 8: to understand the possibility of superintelligence and not people are

973
00:49:18,040 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 8: racing towards it. We don't yet see politicians saying I

974
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:25,320
Speaker 8: will gamble the world on what looks to me like

975
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:27,759
Speaker 8: a like a one in three chance that kills us

976
00:49:27,760 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 8: all and let steam ahead anyway, right, We mostly see

977
00:49:31,480 --> 00:49:33,760
Speaker 8: politicians not noticing. You know, in the field of AI,

978
00:49:34,400 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 8: people have noticed that there's those huge dangers. The rest

979
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,400
Speaker 8: of the world doesn't seem to really buy it yet.

980
00:49:39,840 --> 00:49:42,799
Speaker 8: If the world buys it. If the world understands just

981
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:47,440
Speaker 8: how dangerous this tech is, again not in chat GPT today,

982
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 8: but just how dangerous superintelligence would be. I think there's

983
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 8: a decent chance we can fact stop it. You know,

984
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:56,080
Speaker 8: hopefully we can get a treaty or at least, you know,

985
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:58,799
Speaker 8: a bilateral agreement between some of the biggest powers in

986
00:49:58,800 --> 00:50:02,239
Speaker 8: the world that go to other powers and say look,

987
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:04,120
Speaker 8: we're not we're not tolerating this because we fear for

988
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:08,319
Speaker 8: our own lives. And even if we can't get that,

989
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:11,240
Speaker 8: you know, there's there's maybe some hope in situations where

990
00:50:11,560 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 8: every nation sabotages every other nation's super intelligence project out

991
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:17,600
Speaker 8: of fear for their lives. You know, there's there's the

992
00:50:17,640 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 8: smart way with a treaty, and then there's the like,

993
00:50:19,600 --> 00:50:21,879
Speaker 8: well we're all scared and so we're all stopping everybody else.

994
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,399
Speaker 8: There's possibilities, we just need to understand the danger first.

995
00:50:24,800 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 5: Outside of the US, who's who else is gunning for it?

996
00:50:28,760 --> 00:50:29,719
Speaker 5: You know, I think.

997
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:33,839
Speaker 8: Right now there's a very small pool of people who

998
00:50:33,920 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 8: can really push these ais further and faster. Most of

999
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 8: it's in the United States, maybe a little bit in

1000
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:46,959
Speaker 8: the UK, where Google deep mind is is housed. There's

1001
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 8: definitely folks around the world who are trying, you know,

1002
00:50:51,160 --> 00:50:54,200
Speaker 8: the the the deep seak out of China was a

1003
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 8: bit of a shock to a lot of people. I

1004
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:58,359
Speaker 8: think last December, although I could have had that month wrong.

1005
00:51:01,719 --> 00:51:05,680
Speaker 8: But right now, you know, this takes very very specialized knowledge.

1006
00:51:05,719 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 8: It takes very very specialized computer chips. You know, in

1007
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:11,920
Speaker 8: data centers as you guys were talking about that are

1008
00:51:12,000 --> 00:51:14,719
Speaker 8: huge that take electricity of a small city. You know this,

1009
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 8: it wouldn't be that hard to find all the places

1010
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:21,960
Speaker 8: where the specialized chips are made. Track all these chips,

1011
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:24,960
Speaker 8: UH find these data centers and then make sure that

1012
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:27,360
Speaker 8: they're not being used to make AI smarter.

1013
00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:30,319
Speaker 4: And what last recause of it was, what's what's your

1014
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:32,719
Speaker 4: sense of timeline? And how much time do we have

1015
00:51:32,760 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 4: to stop this?

1016
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:36,160
Speaker 5: It's it. There's a lot of ways it could go.

1017
00:51:37,200 --> 00:51:37,440
Speaker 6: You know.

1018
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 8: It could be that an AI in the lab tomorrow

1019
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:46,759
Speaker 8: goes over some small capability level where it can start

1020
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 8: doing automated AI research and maybe everything goes fast. You know,

1021
00:51:51,160 --> 00:51:54,279
Speaker 8: if if you are watching the difference between different types

1022
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:56,000
Speaker 8: of primates, it would be very hard to tell when

1023
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:59,759
Speaker 8: they're going to go over the line between chimpanzees and humans. Right,

1024
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 8: so all we know tomorrow they go over some line

1025
00:52:02,120 --> 00:52:04,600
Speaker 8: in the lab and the AI start improving the AIS

1026
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:09,840
Speaker 8: or for all we know, the modern chatbot approach just

1027
00:52:09,880 --> 00:52:11,759
Speaker 8: doesn't go all the way. You know, we're starting to

1028
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 8: see some people, you know, chatbots are done in a

1029
00:52:14,520 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 8: lot of ways. Maybe the next level of scale, and

1030
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:19,560
Speaker 8: the next level of scale after that, the bigger and

1031
00:52:19,560 --> 00:52:21,520
Speaker 8: bigger ones. Maybe they're not that much smarter. Maybe we

1032
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 8: have five whole years in which chatbots plateau until the

1033
00:52:25,120 --> 00:52:29,040
Speaker 8: researchers come up with a new insight, maybe even that

1034
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:30,360
Speaker 8: one doesn't go all the way, and then we have

1035
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:32,840
Speaker 8: five more years after that until we have you know,

1036
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:34,319
Speaker 8: a third new insight, and then we get you know,

1037
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 8: fifteen years before. So it's it's it's very hard to

1038
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:42,560
Speaker 8: say exactly, but you know, my bet is that a

1039
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:45,440
Speaker 8: child born today has a greater chance of dying from

1040
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:46,920
Speaker 8: AI than of graduating high school.

1041
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:52,840
Speaker 2: Wow, well, people need to read the book, That's what

1042
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 2: I'll say. I really encourage people. It's actually it's a

1043
00:52:55,920 --> 00:52:58,720
Speaker 2: quick read. It doesn't take that long to get the point.

1044
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:01,600
Speaker 2: And you know, I really appreciate you joining us and

1045
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:03,759
Speaker 2: helping us understand the dangers that you see.

1046
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:06,320
Speaker 5: Here's hoping I'm wrong. Yeah, let's hope.

1047
00:53:06,680 --> 00:53:08,640
Speaker 2: All right, guys, thank you so much for watching today.

1048
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:10,480
Speaker 2: We will be back with Friday Show tomorrow and we

1049
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:11,000
Speaker 2: will see you then