WEBVTT - Beating the Book: 2024 Wimbledon Preview 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:05.320 Thursday morning, June twenty seventh. It is the Beating the 0:00:05.360 --> 0:00:10.920 Book podcast Wimbledon. Wimbledon a fortnight breakfast at Wimbledon Tennis 0:00:10.960 --> 0:00:14.280 is third major of the year on grass. It's Gil Alexander. 0:00:14.400 --> 0:00:17.640 It is Drew Densick. Of course, as always on our 0:00:17.680 --> 0:00:21.760 tennis pods at Whale Underscore. Capper the host the co 0:00:21.840 --> 0:00:23.840 host of both The Deep Dive podcast, which he does 0:00:23.840 --> 0:00:27.320 with Andy Molletitor and NBC Sports at the Edge with 0:00:27.600 --> 0:00:31.080 Jay Croucher. Drew, thank you as always for being here. Man, 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:32.040 appreciate it. 0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:33.919 Of course. Of course I love Wimbledon. 0:00:35.240 --> 0:00:37.479 I wouldn't do it without you. Man and Drew and 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:39.320 I were like, should we do this Friday after the 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:41.480 draw or is that too much of the weekend thing? 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:43.000 So we ended up on Thursday. 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:46.159 Yeah, I'm not long after we wrap this up. I'm 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:49.000 headed out to the mountains. I'll be off the grid tomorrow, 0:00:49.040 --> 0:00:51.640 so I'm gonna have to check on met to find 0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:53.440 a way to get a signal to check on the 0:00:53.520 --> 0:00:55.400 draw when it comes out. So this was the only 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:57.160 time I could pull this off, So I appreciate you 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:57.840 accommodating me. 0:00:57.880 --> 0:01:00.600 No, man, So we're flying a little blind but playing 0:01:00.600 --> 0:01:03.520 the playing the role of Dan Weston our dear friend 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:08.000 from Vson who does Tennis picks on a daily basis 0:01:08.000 --> 0:01:11.000 as well. It's Zach Cohen, first time on the podcast. 0:01:11.080 --> 0:01:12.600 How you doing, Zach? Thanks for doing this. 0:01:12.600 --> 0:01:15.039 Man, I'm doing well. I'm excited to be doing this 0:01:15.080 --> 0:01:15.680 for the first time. 0:01:15.760 --> 0:01:18.280 Yeah, and you just met Drew, Zach, Drew Drews. You 0:01:18.319 --> 0:01:21.000 guys should know each other. Zach. You do Tennis Channel 0:01:21.040 --> 0:01:22.200 pods as well, is that right? 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:23.399 Yeah? 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:25.319 I do some writing for Tennis Channel, and then I 0:01:25.319 --> 0:01:27.959 also do a show called Tennis Bets Live, which is 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:30.880 going to be Mondays and Thursdays about wimbled In and 0:01:31.160 --> 0:01:33.759 that turns into a podcast. So yeah, Tennis Bets Live 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:34.800 on Spotify as well. 0:01:35.080 --> 0:01:38.399 Awesome. How do you like the Tennis Channel host? I 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:42.120 was on his podcast? What is his name again, Mit Michaels. 0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:46.080 Mitch Michaels, Good dude, Yeah, like mitche a lot. Okay, 0:01:46.640 --> 0:01:49.600 So here's the thing, and we'll start with you, Drew, 0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:53.720 because I you know, I bet tennis based on data 0:01:54.160 --> 0:01:58.480 and so hard courts go very well for me. Up 0:01:58.520 --> 0:02:01.400 twenty six units in hard courts year. Guess what I've 0:02:01.440 --> 0:02:04.639 given it all back. I've given it all back on clay, 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:08.360 but particularly here in the last few weeks Grass, and 0:02:08.400 --> 0:02:11.320 I should know this. Every year the data means nothing 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:14.840 because there isn't enough and and I've gotten and when 0:02:14.840 --> 0:02:16.800 I've been bad, the only thing that I've coupled that 0:02:16.840 --> 0:02:18.799 with is being unlucky. So it just hasn't worked out. 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:23.000 So here we are. I'm curious do you have these sames? 0:02:23.440 --> 0:02:25.440 It may not may not be for those reasons, but 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:28.160 do you approach Grass with that same trepidation? 0:02:28.919 --> 0:02:30.079 Oh? Absolutely, yeah. 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:33.320 I mean I think in general, you know, you have 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:36.680 you watch enough, you do this enough seasons in a row, 0:02:36.720 --> 0:02:39.360 and you get a sense of players A, B, and 0:02:39.400 --> 0:02:42.440 C have a skill set that you know should do well. 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:45.480 Sometimes they have results on the pre you know, the 0:02:45.520 --> 0:02:50.079 pre the seating tournaments, particularly in years past, that suggests 0:02:50.080 --> 0:02:52.720 they will do well, and then you know you upgrade them, 0:02:52.960 --> 0:02:55.960 you know, to be trying to kind of account for, well, 0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:59.240 where were they heading into this grass season relative to 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:02.720 last year's. You know, you're basically just trying to put 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:04.640 the puzzle pieces together in a way that you come 0:03:04.680 --> 0:03:06.560 up with a fair rating for a given player where 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:09.080 it counts for you know what is their arc this 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:12.800 season to this point, how did it compare to last season? 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:15.200 How did they do on grass last season in you know, 0:03:15.360 --> 0:03:18.040 relative to expectation, and you kind of combine all of 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:19.440 those to come up with what you think is a 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:22.960 fair number. And you know, so like a good example 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:26.640 is a player like Onstrabor, you know, two years ago, 0:03:27.240 --> 0:03:30.560 you know, came into grass season absolutely on fire, like 0:03:31.120 --> 0:03:34.480 off of Madrid title, off of you know, all time 0:03:34.480 --> 0:03:37.760 performances on clay, and she had the pedigree of grass, 0:03:37.800 --> 0:03:40.960 and she had a nice run on grass heading into Wimbledon, 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:42.840 and so it was just like all the pieces were there, 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:44.680 and then you look at this season and it's been 0:03:44.720 --> 0:03:47.160 a complete opposite telling of the story where nothing has 0:03:47.240 --> 0:03:49.400 really gone well for her this season. She didn't really 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:52.920 perform especially well on grass. She's had issues, and so 0:03:53.000 --> 0:03:55.240 I think ultimately you put all that together and I 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:57.560 think you have to dock her rating pretty aggressively, even 0:03:57.560 --> 0:04:00.000 though you know the data would tell you she's been 0:04:00.120 --> 0:04:02.560 the strongest performer on grass over the last handful of 0:04:02.600 --> 0:04:03.040 years here. 0:04:03.120 --> 0:04:06.360 So that's sort of the process. 0:04:06.000 --> 0:04:08.000 That I go through where I'm you know, I have 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:09.880 a heat index for a player and an arc for 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:12.040 a player over the balance of their you know of 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:15.480 a current you know, calendar year, uh, and then marry 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:17.200 that with what we know about that player and their 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:20.719 strengths to their weaknesses the in past performances on grass. 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:22.839 Slightly more art then, I guess is what you're saying 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:26.640 than another surfaces that sound right? Slightly more art then. 0:04:26.400 --> 0:04:28.760 No, without question, no, no, without without question. 0:04:28.839 --> 0:04:30.320 And by the way, you're being modest because of the 0:04:30.400 --> 0:04:32.680 year that Jabor got to the finals and lost to 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:36.040 Herbakana Drew had a thirty three to one ticket, as 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:39.800 I recall on Onbor and she was up a set, 0:04:39.880 --> 0:04:42.640 wasn't she? Oh God, sorry about that? Too soon? Too soon? 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:43.640 On that that was. 0:04:44.080 --> 0:04:46.520 That was ten years Yeah. 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:48.840 That was the one. We're Bakaa. She won her her 0:04:48.920 --> 0:04:51.279 one and only slam and acted like she want to 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:53.920 match at the JCC, like she was just completely non 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:57.360 plussed by it. Zach Is, I don't know if that 0:04:57.440 --> 0:05:00.200 fits your approach or or or for you in the 0:05:00.200 --> 0:05:03.640 way you handicap tennis. Is grass just as good as 0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:04.080 the others. 0:05:05.720 --> 0:05:07.320 I bet a little bit more on feel. 0:05:07.400 --> 0:05:08.320 I wish I had a model. 0:05:08.320 --> 0:05:10.080 I'm absolutely I want to work on building one over 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:12.560 the summer, but I bet a little bit more on feel, 0:05:12.600 --> 0:05:14.560 so you know, when I get to grass season, obviously 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:16.040 there's a little bit less for me to go back 0:05:16.080 --> 0:05:18.520 and look at. But yeah, I, like Drew said, like 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:20.000 you got a bet you have a good feel for 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:22.599 who's going to perform well on a quicker surface, like 0:05:22.640 --> 0:05:25.279 you can give a bump, two bigger servers, people that 0:05:25.440 --> 0:05:27.920 end points quickly, that can play with the net. I 0:05:28.040 --> 0:05:30.640 keep it pretty simple, but yeah, I've had some success 0:05:30.720 --> 0:05:33.240 on grass, treating it like I do the other surfaces. 0:05:33.279 --> 0:05:35.000 But yeah, this week's been killing me. 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:38.480 So yeah, this morning killed me, and yesterday killed me 0:05:38.520 --> 0:05:41.039 as well on grass, and today, by the way, on grass, 0:05:41.040 --> 0:05:43.159 like this is the this is the the squirrely time 0:05:43.200 --> 0:05:46.120 of week where we have three walkovers on the women's side, 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:47.880 like half the half the field is like, I'm just 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:51.279 gonna go to Wimbledon now, thanks, thanks for tune up. Okay, 0:05:51.360 --> 0:05:53.279 let's start with and again we do not have the 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:55.760 benefit of quarters here, but I just want to start 0:05:55.760 --> 0:05:57.880 on the men's side where Drew you were texting me 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:00.840 this morning. It appears that no veak Yokovic is a 0:06:00.920 --> 0:06:02.960 go right, All signs point that way. 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:10.560 Yes, the rumors of his demise were greatly overstated, apparently, yes, 0:06:11.240 --> 0:06:14.240 And honestly, like we all had a little bit of 0:06:14.240 --> 0:06:17.600 an inkling of that, right, Like you know, the details 0:06:17.640 --> 0:06:21.880 around his surgery never really trickled out. And I mean, honestly, 0:06:21.920 --> 0:06:25.400 thanks to Joel Embiid, we're all experts in the meniscus 0:06:25.440 --> 0:06:29.080 surgery space now, so we know that there are different 0:06:29.120 --> 0:06:32.440 types of a bucket handle tear and a repair versus 0:06:32.480 --> 0:06:34.400 a you know, just a removal. 0:06:34.520 --> 0:06:36.160 You know, like you know, you. 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:39.279 Can't throw a k one by us now when it 0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:43.040 comes to knee injuries. And you know the fact that 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:46.159 I'm not saying he was not injured, like he pretty 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:49.080 clearly like was dealing with something in a French at 0:06:49.080 --> 0:06:52.200 the French Open, and and like just taking a giant 0:06:52.279 --> 0:06:54.880 step back, like he is stunk all year, Like he 0:06:55.120 --> 0:06:57.240 just has not been close to the same level that 0:06:57.279 --> 0:07:00.599 he was last year. And you need an evidence, go 0:07:00.680 --> 0:07:04.159 watch his semifinal against you Center on his best court 0:07:04.360 --> 0:07:07.920 on earth. You know, in Melbourne he was miserable, and 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:11.920 so I think ultimately, like is him showing up and 0:07:11.920 --> 0:07:15.480 making a run here, particularly with the two seed. Will 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:18.680 not doubt it in for even for a minute. But 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:20.800 him winning this tournament means he's still going to have 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:23.960 to be get the better of a Center and and 0:07:24.400 --> 0:07:27.480 maybe you know, depending on where the draw lands, maybe 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:30.960 an Alcras and a Center and those happening at the 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:34.640 end of a fortnite after you know, he potentially gets 0:07:34.760 --> 0:07:38.160 challenged by you know, some some middling players and you know, 0:07:38.200 --> 0:07:41.000 the end of week one, I'm just not seeing championship 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:44.800 potentially for him. That said, he's clearly the most accomplished 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:47.720 on grass of anyone in this draw by by you know, 0:07:47.960 --> 0:07:52.240 huge margins, and so I think, you know, ultimately, if 0:07:52.240 --> 0:07:55.200 this turns into a you know, Center over Djokovic final, 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:56.920 then I'm not going to be suppressed. 0:07:57.960 --> 0:08:02.040 Djokovic going for his twenty fifth singles Grand Slam title 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:04.320 the only thing he's chasing right now. I guess the 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:07.240 only competition has Margaret Court twenty four on the women's side, 0:08:07.440 --> 0:08:09.960 Djokovic twenty four on the men's side. Twenty five would 0:08:09.960 --> 0:08:14.120 be the top for either side. And I don't know 0:08:14.160 --> 0:08:17.080 if he's running out of time, but age will will 0:08:17.080 --> 0:08:19.720 matter here if it hasn't already, So this might be 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:22.440 the one he wants to get. Sinner Zach is plus 0:08:22.440 --> 0:08:25.000 one seventy five. Yanix Center is the short shot at DraftKings, 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:28.520 actually co short shot with Carlos Alkarez. Both are plus 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:32.560 one seventy five. Djokovic is four to one. Everybody else 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:34.520 is fourteen to one or longer. In terms of the 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:36.760 outrights here before we get to your thoughts on it 0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:39.520 outright that might have value in your heart of hearts, 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:41.360 do you believe the winner comes from one of those 0:08:41.400 --> 0:08:43.280 three guys ciner Alcorazer Joker. 0:08:44.040 --> 0:08:46.040 Yeah, I'm not gonna bet it because the number is 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:47.760 just not there. But I do think Sinner is going 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:49.560 to win this tournament. I just think that, you know, 0:08:49.559 --> 0:08:51.720 I took him aout the front sh open pretty much 0:08:51.720 --> 0:08:53.360 a number grab. I just thought that was the last 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:56.480 time we'll see sooner around plus five hundred again. I 0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:59.200 think we turns over transition over to grass. He's first 0:08:59.240 --> 0:09:01.199 in the world and hold percentage over the last fifty 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:04.480 two weeks sixth and break percentage. This is a surface 0:09:04.520 --> 0:09:06.280 that really should suit him pretty well. And I think 0:09:06.280 --> 0:09:08.600 the hip thing is pretty far in the pass now, 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:10.240 to the point that he's probably been able to work 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:12.559 on his cardio over the last four weeks. I think 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:15.000 that that played a factor in him cramping up at 0:09:15.000 --> 0:09:16.599 the French Open. I think that he's heading into this 0:09:16.640 --> 0:09:19.320 tournament fresh. I thought he looked good in Hallow, where 0:09:19.360 --> 0:09:22.280 he beat just a slew of big servers, just like 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:25.800 almost a poopoo ladder of like serve bots there. I 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:27.800 think he's looking good and he's in good form, and 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:28.920 this is the best surface for him. 0:09:28.960 --> 0:09:30.800 Yeah, think about that when Drew, when you and I 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:33.120 were talking before the French Open, We're like, well, Center 0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:35.760 might not play. It's the hip. It might be irresponsible 0:09:35.800 --> 0:09:38.480 of his team to let him play. Alcarez had the 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:40.880 arm injury, I don't know what he's gonna do. Djokovic 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:43.680 had lost a couple brutal like one. Who is it 0:09:43.720 --> 0:09:45.400 that he lost? It was a tabilo that he lost 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:48.040 to somebody where he was like, we were like, my god, 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:50.240 he got crushed, so like we didn't know anything. And 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.920 now now that it looks like Joker's playing, it just 0:09:52.960 --> 0:09:55.120 appears at all three that none of this is an issue. 0:09:56.240 --> 0:09:59.920 Well it's oh, hold on, let's not go that far. 0:10:00.160 --> 0:10:01.240 Okay, what's an issue? 0:10:01.360 --> 0:10:06.080 So the so for Cinner, like he barely really got 0:10:06.120 --> 0:10:08.680 tested at the French right, like he came through his 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:15.160 quarter and played nobody. And you know, I think I 0:10:15.200 --> 0:10:17.480 agree with Zach's point. If Cinner had had a little 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:19.760 better conditioning heading in there, I don't think he loses 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:23.320 that match to Alcaaz in the semis. And I think 0:10:24.080 --> 0:10:31.400 Alcaaz was Harry lucky to win this title. I'm just 0:10:31.520 --> 0:10:35.840 being completely objective. Alcaraz is somewhere between seventy to eighty 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:38.960 percent of the player he was last summer, like in 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:41.200 terms of just what he's doing on the tennis court. 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:43.480 But you think that you think that's injury induced. 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:46.360 I think it's injury induced. Maybe it's fitness. So I 0:10:46.400 --> 0:10:48.640 don't know. I honestly don't know what the deal is. 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:52.080 But it's he's like like if you said, oh, we 0:10:52.160 --> 0:10:55.920 got a twenty twenty three Alcarez versus twenty twenty four, 0:10:56.480 --> 0:10:58.760 you know, what's what's the line. It's like, you know, 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:01.400 he's pretty clearly minus two fifty over. 0:11:01.480 --> 0:11:04.040 Exactly the number I was gonna say, yeah. 0:11:03.720 --> 0:11:07.040 Like over over the current forum, and like it was 0:11:07.080 --> 0:11:09.440 still enough to for he still had enough to win 0:11:09.679 --> 0:11:13.280 the French Open, and honestly like the way he won it, 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:17.360 like he just let his opponents come down to his level, 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:22.320 like by making these matches five sets, and like, okay, 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:25.440 like that, okay that that that worked well for you 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:28.720 on clay. I don't think that's working on grass, and 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:31.160 it's not working on against Center on grass, and it 0:11:31.280 --> 0:11:33.560 probably not working against Jokovic on grass the way it 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:35.360 did for him last year and his title run. 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:37.920 So not to mention Jr. Not to interrupt, but he 0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:41.000 got broken until the umpire came down because it's clay 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:45.160 and went I believe it was, so you're going to 0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:47.720 continue to play? I mean that was that was everything 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:48.760 in that match, right. 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.760 I I look, I love Carlos akrez as as like 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:54.120 a player and a part of tennis. He makes the 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:57.200 game so much more enjoyable. And him winning the French 0:11:57.240 --> 0:12:00.160 Open over Zverev was big for the sport, yes, and 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:03.280 him now having kind of all three surfaces slams is 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:05.000 big for the sport. And I hope he has a 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:06.920 long and awesome career because he has he brings the 0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:08.760 same joy of the game that Feder did. If Feder 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:11.600 is my favorite player of all time, and so I'm 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:16.400 not in any way trying to disparage him, but the 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:18.680 final Zverev lost the final more. 0:12:18.520 --> 0:12:21.400 Than al Karez won. In my opinion, I only saw. 0:12:21.360 --> 0:12:26.840 Flashes of kind of vintage outcraz like five six times 0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:29.080 during the entire run he had in the French Open. 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:31.720 And I'm not even talking like stretches. 0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:35.120 I'm talking like individual points where he kind of you know, 0:12:35.240 --> 0:12:38.400 produced that level. And so you know, if he wins 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:41.640 the win, if he wins Wimbledon, here like, I'll take 0:12:41.640 --> 0:12:44.040 my hat off. Like he has the athleticism, he has 0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:46.040 the goods, he has the skill set, he has, you know, 0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:48.679 all the tricks in his bag. We got him to 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:51.640 win Wimbledon last year and one of my most fun 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:55.920 wins of the entire twenty twenty three calendar. But you 0:12:55.960 --> 0:12:59.160 know the I watched the Draper match very closely at Queen's. 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:03.760 He now went in this tournament, I don't think. 0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:08.800 Okay, so kN same question for you. We'll throw out 0:13:08.800 --> 0:13:11.559 Alcoraz for you though, Well, we'll get to some long 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:14.840 shot value place here. From you, it sounds like in 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:17.600 your heart of hearts, you believe it's either Center or Joker. 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:21.960 Yeah, I'll call the final right now, Center three zero over. 0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:25.800 Djoovic, Center three zero over Djokovic. Okay, Well, there you go, 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:32.160 Wimbledon people, you're gonna have a crappy final. Okay, center, 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:34.319 by the way, trying to win his second slam out 0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:37.320 of three. If that is the case for the calendar, 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:39.760 you're twenty twenty four, all right. So beyond those guys, 0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:44.559 Sasha Zverev, who just got beat try still trying to 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:47.520 win his first slam. He lost in the finals of 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:50.640 the US Open the year that Djokovic hit the lines 0:13:50.679 --> 0:13:52.839 girl with the ball. The lines were, we're with the ball, 0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:55.080 and so it was the team z Zverev. Oh my god, 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:57.360 one of us besides the Big three gets to win 0:13:57.400 --> 0:14:00.400 a slam match, and it was on Zverev's getting the 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:02.360 fifth set up five to four and he gacked it. 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:04.680 Then this one the ump kind of helped take it 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:07.400 away from him. Or Coots, now we get into some 0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:09.800 Orcott's a bit of a serve bot. Sixteen to one 0:14:10.600 --> 0:14:13.640 Medvedev always live. Eighteen to one. Draper, who I know, Zach, 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:15.240 You've got stuff to say about you have a bet on. 0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:18.160 I think Draper is down to twenty to one. And 0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:20.520 then just in terms of other sort of serve body 0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:22.960 kind of people or guys who can win on the 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:26.720 strength of their serve. Barrettini twenty two to one. Where 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:29.520 are you, Milos round It one hundred to one? Milos 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:34.040 Roundache coming playing, He's off, he's out, he's out. Well, 0:14:34.120 --> 0:14:35.800 DraftKings trying to steal money from people. 0:14:35.800 --> 0:14:40.320 Then I miss that tale's oldest time in the tenniest 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:43.280 features market over there, they always have players. I'm sure 0:14:43.320 --> 0:14:47.240 Petra Kavito is probably on the women. She might be 0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:48.800 in the field. She's in the field. 0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:49.680 I bet on the one anyway. 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:51.400 I'm just looking, Yeah, I'm just looking at some others here. 0:14:51.560 --> 0:14:53.960 All of those names, I mean, except for Draper, all 0:14:54.040 --> 0:15:00.120 those names nothing I think. I think the Medvedev and 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:04.360 Zaverev and that class of characters being kind of discussed 0:15:04.400 --> 0:15:07.080 or bandeaed about, and the top five is absurd to me. 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:08.600 I'm not seeing that at all. 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:13.760 I definitely would say that after your top three, you know, 0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:18.880 the fourth and fifth should probably be Draper and demon 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:21.040 are based on what we've seen so far on Grass this. 0:15:21.040 --> 0:15:24.480 Year, Demona are twenty two to one. Can I interest 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:27.400 you in a little? Gregor Demetrov at twenty eight to one. Again, 0:15:27.440 --> 0:15:29.240 this is and this is the problem with Grass because 0:15:29.280 --> 0:15:31.640 like when we talk clay and we talk hardcourts. I 0:15:31.680 --> 0:15:33.600 can look in these numbers and say, here are the 0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:35.600 people that really surprise me with numbers. Here are the 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:38.360 people who you know on men's and women's And maybe 0:15:38.360 --> 0:15:41.360 there's there's value here. If we did the same exercise 0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.560 with grass, we're really only talking about weeks, like a 0:15:44.600 --> 0:15:47.120 handful of weeks worth of data if I go back 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:50.240 a year, if we do that, though, Gregor Demetrov has 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:52.000 as good as numbers as anybody, So I just want 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:53.800 to throw him out there as well, so does Alexander 0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:56.160 Bublic by the way, players like that, but it's just 0:15:56.200 --> 0:15:59.920 not as meaningful here. And so again you say it's 0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:02.440 Demonor and what was that? Who was the other one 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:03.320 that you put it out there? 0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:06.440 Draper and Demon Draper and shown they've they've shown you 0:16:06.600 --> 0:16:10.760 high enough quality on grass on this cycle that you 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:12.720 have to take them seriously. Plus they have they just 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:16.000 have the game for it, right, Like Demon Tromp is 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:19.760 just a good all round player, but I you know 0:16:19.840 --> 0:16:23.160 his loss to you know, he's he has some absolute 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:27.760 like what the heck happened losses at Wimbledon over his career. 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:31.040 Stan Vravrinka got him here. Stan Rinkle, who like notoriously 0:16:31.080 --> 0:16:34.720 hates like this particular tournament in this surface. Uh, he's 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:38.600 lost to Gasca, He's lost to Stevie Johnson, Bublic got 0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:39.200 the better of him. 0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:40.680 He lost to Stevie Johnson again. 0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:43.760 And oh no, he lost to Stevie Johnson in twenty 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:44.720 twenty two. 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:48.040 What I forgot this? Like, oh good lord. 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:52.800 So yeah, he has some absolute just laughable results on grass. 0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:55.560 I don't think he's really figured out the surface, and 0:16:55.600 --> 0:16:58.960 so I think he's a pass and you know, honestly, 0:16:59.040 --> 0:17:01.040 like it's gonna sound and what do you call it 0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:03.600 recency bias? But I'm fine if you want to put 0:17:03.640 --> 0:17:07.680 Tommy Paul sixth after Demon Aaron Draper, Yeah, Deman Aaron 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:09.320 Draper pretty close for me, four or five, and I 0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:10.440 would put Tommy Paul six. 0:17:10.560 --> 0:17:12.360 By the way, we have we have two tournaments going 0:17:12.400 --> 0:17:13.800 on the men's side right now, but they're both two 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:17.680 fifties in Majorca and Eastbourn. But of the four grass 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:20.720 tournaments that have been played on the men's side a 0:17:20.720 --> 0:17:23.600 couple of weeks ago, Stuttgart and the Netherlands, I don't 0:17:23.760 --> 0:17:27.359 I'm not going to try to pronounce herto Genbosch Uh, 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:31.159 Draper beat Barrettini in the final. In Stuttgart, Musetti and 0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:34.880 Nakashima got to the semis. There, Demonor, to your point, 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:37.800 Draper and Dimino, Demonor beat Korda in the finals. In 0:17:37.840 --> 0:17:41.119 the Netherlands, Umber and Greekspor got to the semis. And 0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:43.719 these are the five hundreds. Last week in London, Tommy 0:17:43.800 --> 0:17:47.800 Paul beat Mussetti in the finals, Korda again and Thompson 0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:51.240 Jordan Thompson got to the semis. And in Halle last 0:17:51.240 --> 0:17:55.919 week Sinner took down her cuts, with Jang, Jjen and 0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:58.639 Zverev getting to the semis. So that's what's happened on grass. 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:01.120 That's the That's the entire escort season, by the way, 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:02.800 including the ones that are going on right now. 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:06.360 Do you want a little cheat code for that tournament 0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:09.480 that you are struggling with? Just den Bush, gen Bush, 0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:10.720 Den Bush? 0:18:10.840 --> 0:18:12.680 Really? Do you have a cheat code for Bad Humburg? 0:18:12.760 --> 0:18:17.520 Do you have a cheat code for that as well? No, Zach, 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:21.240 If so, if we extended past the big three, I 0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:23.440 sort of hinted that you like Draper, but who would 0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:25.040 be your guys at four and five and six? 0:18:25.800 --> 0:18:26.639 Yeah, I'll be honest. 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:28.679 I grabbed Draper at one hundred to one, but I 0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:30.720 absolutely don't really think you can win the tournament. We 0:18:30.760 --> 0:18:32.520 spoke about this a little on a numbers game, but 0:18:33.160 --> 0:18:35.040 it's just a number grab. Like I do think he's 0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:37.159 one of the five or six best players on grass, 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:40.000 but I do have concerns about his fitness still, he's 0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:42.119 a little bit unproven in best of fives. Tends to 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:45.040 always have a match three or so rounds in where 0:18:45.119 --> 0:18:47.720 you know, it starts crapping up, loses a five setter 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:49.800 where he loses to a player that he definitely should 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:52.199 be until we kind of see him break through that, 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:53.960 it's gonna be hard to believe in him, you know, 0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:55.800 winning a slam or even getting to you know, the 0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:58.360