Speaker 1: Thursday morning, June twenty seventh. It is the Beating the
Speaker 1: Book podcast Wimbledon. Wimbledon a fortnight breakfast at Wimbledon Tennis
Speaker 1: is third major of the year on grass. It's Gil Alexander.
Speaker 1: It is Drew Densick. Of course, as always on our
Speaker 1: tennis pods at Whale Underscore. Capper the host the co
Speaker 1: host of both The Deep Dive podcast, which he does
Speaker 1: with Andy Molletitor and NBC Sports at the Edge with
Speaker 1: Jay Croucher. Drew, thank you as always for being here. Man,
Speaker 1: appreciate it.
Speaker 2: Of course. Of course I love Wimbledon.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't do it without you. Man and Drew and
Speaker 1: I were like, should we do this Friday after the
Speaker 1: draw or is that too much of the weekend thing?
Speaker 1: So we ended up on Thursday.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm not long after we wrap this up. I'm
Speaker 3: headed out to the mountains. I'll be off the grid tomorrow,
Speaker 3: so I'm gonna have to check on met to find
Speaker 3: a way to get a signal to check on the
Speaker 3: draw when it comes out. So this was the only
Speaker 3: time I could pull this off, So I appreciate you
Speaker 3: accommodating me.
Speaker 1: No, man, So we're flying a little blind but playing
Speaker 1: the playing the role of Dan Weston our dear friend
Speaker 1: from Vson who does Tennis picks on a daily basis
Speaker 1: as well. It's Zach Cohen, first time on the podcast.
Speaker 1: How you doing, Zach? Thanks for doing this.
Speaker 4: Man, I'm doing well. I'm excited to be doing this
Speaker 4: for the first time.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you just met Drew, Zach, Drew Drews. You
Speaker 1: guys should know each other. Zach. You do Tennis Channel
Speaker 1: pods as well, is that right?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 5: I do some writing for Tennis Channel, and then I
Speaker 5: also do a show called Tennis Bets Live, which is
Speaker 5: going to be Mondays and Thursdays about wimbled In and
Speaker 5: that turns into a podcast. So yeah, Tennis Bets Live
Speaker 5: on Spotify as well.
Speaker 1: Awesome. How do you like the Tennis Channel host? I
Speaker 1: was on his podcast? What is his name again, Mit Michaels.
Speaker 1: Mitch Michaels, Good dude, Yeah, like mitche a lot. Okay,
Speaker 1: So here's the thing, and we'll start with you, Drew,
Speaker 1: because I you know, I bet tennis based on data
Speaker 1: and so hard courts go very well for me. Up
Speaker 1: twenty six units in hard courts year. Guess what I've
Speaker 1: given it all back. I've given it all back on clay,
Speaker 1: but particularly here in the last few weeks Grass, and
Speaker 1: I should know this. Every year the data means nothing
Speaker 1: because there isn't enough and and I've gotten and when
Speaker 1: I've been bad, the only thing that I've coupled that
Speaker 1: with is being unlucky. So it just hasn't worked out.
Speaker 1: So here we are. I'm curious do you have these sames?
Speaker 1: It may not may not be for those reasons, but
Speaker 1: do you approach Grass with that same trepidation?
Speaker 2: Oh? Absolutely, yeah.
Speaker 3: I mean I think in general, you know, you have
Speaker 3: you watch enough, you do this enough seasons in a row,
Speaker 3: and you get a sense of players A, B, and
Speaker 3: C have a skill set that you know should do well.
Speaker 3: Sometimes they have results on the pre you know, the
Speaker 3: pre the seating tournaments, particularly in years past, that suggests
Speaker 3: they will do well, and then you know you upgrade them,
Speaker 3: you know, to be trying to kind of account for, well,
Speaker 3: where were they heading into this grass season relative to
Speaker 3: last year's. You know, you're basically just trying to put
Speaker 3: the puzzle pieces together in a way that you come
Speaker 3: up with a fair rating for a given player where
Speaker 3: it counts for you know what is their arc this
Speaker 3: season to this point, how did it compare to last season?
Speaker 3: How did they do on grass last season in you know,
Speaker 3: relative to expectation, and you kind of combine all of
Speaker 3: those to come up with what you think is a
Speaker 3: fair number. And you know, so like a good example
Speaker 3: is a player like Onstrabor, you know, two years ago,
Speaker 3: you know, came into grass season absolutely on fire, like
Speaker 3: off of Madrid title, off of you know, all time
Speaker 3: performances on clay, and she had the pedigree of grass,
Speaker 3: and she had a nice run on grass heading into Wimbledon,
Speaker 3: and so it was just like all the pieces were there,
Speaker 3: and then you look at this season and it's been
Speaker 3: a complete opposite telling of the story where nothing has
Speaker 3: really gone well for her this season. She didn't really
Speaker 3: perform especially well on grass. She's had issues, and so
Speaker 3: I think ultimately you put all that together and I
Speaker 3: think you have to dock her rating pretty aggressively, even
Speaker 3: though you know the data would tell you she's been
Speaker 3: the strongest performer on grass over the last handful of
Speaker 3: years here.
Speaker 2: So that's sort of the process.
Speaker 3: That I go through where I'm you know, I have
Speaker 3: a heat index for a player and an arc for
Speaker 3: a player over the balance of their you know of
Speaker 3: a current you know, calendar year, uh, and then marry
Speaker 3: that with what we know about that player and their
Speaker 3: strengths to their weaknesses the in past performances on grass.
Speaker 1: Slightly more art then, I guess is what you're saying
Speaker 1: than another surfaces that sound right? Slightly more art then.
Speaker 2: No, without question, no, no, without without question.
Speaker 1: And by the way, you're being modest because of the
Speaker 1: year that Jabor got to the finals and lost to
Speaker 1: Herbakana Drew had a thirty three to one ticket, as
Speaker 1: I recall on Onbor and she was up a set,
Speaker 1: wasn't she? Oh God, sorry about that? Too soon? Too soon?
Speaker 1: On that that was.
Speaker 2: That was ten years Yeah.
Speaker 1: That was the one. We're Bakaa. She won her her
Speaker 1: one and only slam and acted like she want to
Speaker 1: match at the JCC, like she was just completely non
Speaker 1: plussed by it. Zach Is, I don't know if that
Speaker 1: fits your approach or or or for you in the
Speaker 1: way you handicap tennis. Is grass just as good as
Speaker 1: the others.
Speaker 4: I bet a little bit more on feel.
Speaker 2: I wish I had a model.
Speaker 5: I'm absolutely I want to work on building one over
Speaker 5: the summer, but I bet a little bit more on feel,
Speaker 5: so you know, when I get to grass season, obviously
Speaker 5: there's a little bit less for me to go back
Speaker 5: and look at. But yeah, I, like Drew said, like
Speaker 5: you got a bet you have a good feel for
Speaker 5: who's going to perform well on a quicker surface, like
Speaker 5: you can give a bump, two bigger servers, people that
Speaker 5: end points quickly, that can play with the net. I
Speaker 5: keep it pretty simple, but yeah, I've had some success
Speaker 5: on grass, treating it like I do the other surfaces.
Speaker 4: But yeah, this week's been killing me.
Speaker 1: So yeah, this morning killed me, and yesterday killed me
Speaker 1: as well on grass, and today, by the way, on grass,
Speaker 1: like this is the this is the the squirrely time
Speaker 1: of week where we have three walkovers on the women's side,
Speaker 1: like half the half the field is like, I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna go to Wimbledon now, thanks, thanks for tune up. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's start with and again we do not have the
Speaker 1: benefit of quarters here, but I just want to start
Speaker 1: on the men's side where Drew you were texting me
Speaker 1: this morning. It appears that no veak Yokovic is a
Speaker 1: go right, All signs point that way.
Speaker 3: Yes, the rumors of his demise were greatly overstated, apparently, yes,
Speaker 3: And honestly, like we all had a little bit of
Speaker 3: an inkling of that, right, Like you know, the details
Speaker 3: around his surgery never really trickled out. And I mean, honestly,
Speaker 3: thanks to Joel Embiid, we're all experts in the meniscus
Speaker 3: surgery space now, so we know that there are different
Speaker 3: types of a bucket handle tear and a repair versus
Speaker 3: a you know, just a removal.
Speaker 2: You know, like you know, you.
Speaker 3: Can't throw a k one by us now when it
Speaker 3: comes to knee injuries. And you know the fact that
Speaker 3: I'm not saying he was not injured, like he pretty
Speaker 3: clearly like was dealing with something in a French at
Speaker 3: the French Open, and and like just taking a giant
Speaker 3: step back, like he is stunk all year, Like he
Speaker 3: just has not been close to the same level that
Speaker 3: he was last year. And you need an evidence, go
Speaker 3: watch his semifinal against you Center on his best court
Speaker 3: on earth. You know, in Melbourne he was miserable, and
Speaker 3: so I think ultimately, like is him showing up and
Speaker 3: making a run here, particularly with the two seed. Will
Speaker 3: not doubt it in for even for a minute. But
Speaker 3: him winning this tournament means he's still going to have
Speaker 3: to be get the better of a Center and and
Speaker 3: maybe you know, depending on where the draw lands, maybe
Speaker 3: an Alcras and a Center and those happening at the
Speaker 3: end of a fortnite after you know, he potentially gets
Speaker 3: challenged by you know, some some middling players and you know,
Speaker 3: the end of week one, I'm just not seeing championship
Speaker 3: potentially for him. That said, he's clearly the most accomplished
Speaker 3: on grass of anyone in this draw by by you know,
Speaker 3: huge margins, and so I think, you know, ultimately, if
Speaker 3: this turns into a you know, Center over Djokovic final,
Speaker 3: then I'm not going to be suppressed.
Speaker 1: Djokovic going for his twenty fifth singles Grand Slam title
Speaker 1: the only thing he's chasing right now. I guess the
Speaker 1: only competition has Margaret Court twenty four on the women's side,
Speaker 1: Djokovic twenty four on the men's side. Twenty five would
Speaker 1: be the top for either side. And I don't know
Speaker 1: if he's running out of time, but age will will
Speaker 1: matter here if it hasn't already, So this might be
Speaker 1: the one he wants to get. Sinner Zach is plus
Speaker 1: one seventy five. Yanix Center is the short shot at DraftKings,
Speaker 1: actually co short shot with Carlos Alkarez. Both are plus
Speaker 1: one seventy five. Djokovic is four to one. Everybody else
Speaker 1: is fourteen to one or longer. In terms of the
Speaker 1: outrights here before we get to your thoughts on it
Speaker 1: outright that might have value in your heart of hearts,
Speaker 1: do you believe the winner comes from one of those
Speaker 1: three guys ciner Alcorazer Joker.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm not gonna bet it because the number is
Speaker 5: just not there. But I do think Sinner is going
Speaker 5: to win this tournament. I just think that, you know,
Speaker 5: I took him aout the front sh open pretty much
Speaker 5: a number grab. I just thought that was the last
Speaker 5: time we'll see sooner around plus five hundred again. I
Speaker 5: think we turns over transition over to grass. He's first
Speaker 5: in the world and hold percentage over the last fifty
Speaker 5: two weeks sixth and break percentage. This is a surface
Speaker 5: that really should suit him pretty well. And I think
Speaker 5: the hip thing is pretty far in the pass now,
Speaker 5: to the point that he's probably been able to work
Speaker 5: on his cardio over the last four weeks. I think
Speaker 5: that that played a factor in him cramping up at
Speaker 5: the French Open. I think that he's heading into this
Speaker 5: tournament fresh. I thought he looked good in Hallow, where
Speaker 5: he beat just a slew of big servers, just like
Speaker 5: almost a poopoo ladder of like serve bots there. I
Speaker 5: think he's looking good and he's in good form, and
Speaker 5: this is the best surface for him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, think about that when Drew, when you and I
Speaker 1: were talking before the French Open, We're like, well, Center
Speaker 1: might not play. It's the hip. It might be irresponsible
Speaker 1: of his team to let him play. Alcarez had the
Speaker 1: arm injury, I don't know what he's gonna do. Djokovic
Speaker 1: had lost a couple brutal like one. Who is it
Speaker 1: that he lost? It was a tabilo that he lost
Speaker 1: to somebody where he was like, we were like, my god,
Speaker 1: he got crushed, so like we didn't know anything. And
Speaker 1: now now that it looks like Joker's playing, it just
Speaker 1: appears at all three that none of this is an issue.
Speaker 2: Well it's oh, hold on, let's not go that far.
Speaker 1: Okay, what's an issue?
Speaker 3: So the so for Cinner, like he barely really got
Speaker 3: tested at the French right, like he came through his
Speaker 3: quarter and played nobody. And you know, I think I
Speaker 3: agree with Zach's point. If Cinner had had a little
Speaker 3: better conditioning heading in there, I don't think he loses
Speaker 3: that match to Alcaaz in the semis. And I think
Speaker 3: Alcaaz was Harry lucky to win this title. I'm just
Speaker 3: being completely objective. Alcaraz is somewhere between seventy to eighty
Speaker 3: percent of the player he was last summer, like in
Speaker 3: terms of just what he's doing on the tennis court.
Speaker 1: But you think that you think that's injury induced.
Speaker 2: I think it's injury induced. Maybe it's fitness. So I
Speaker 2: don't know. I honestly don't know what the deal is.
Speaker 3: But it's he's like like if you said, oh, we
Speaker 3: got a twenty twenty three Alcarez versus twenty twenty four,
Speaker 3: you know, what's what's the line. It's like, you know,
Speaker 3: he's pretty clearly minus two fifty over.
Speaker 1: Exactly the number I was gonna say, yeah.
Speaker 3: Like over over the current forum, and like it was
Speaker 3: still enough to for he still had enough to win
Speaker 3: the French Open, and honestly like the way he won it,
Speaker 3: like he just let his opponents come down to his level,
Speaker 3: like by making these matches five sets, and like, okay,
Speaker 3: like that, okay that that that worked well for you
Speaker 3: on clay. I don't think that's working on grass, and
Speaker 3: it's not working on against Center on grass, and it
Speaker 3: probably not working against Jokovic on grass the way it
Speaker 3: did for him last year and his title run.
Speaker 1: So not to mention Jr. Not to interrupt, but he
Speaker 1: got broken until the umpire came down because it's clay
Speaker 1: and went I believe it was, so you're going to
Speaker 1: continue to play? I mean that was that was everything
Speaker 1: in that match, right.
Speaker 3: I I look, I love Carlos akrez as as like
Speaker 3: a player and a part of tennis. He makes the
Speaker 3: game so much more enjoyable. And him winning the French
Speaker 3: Open over Zverev was big for the sport, yes, and
Speaker 3: him now having kind of all three surfaces slams is
Speaker 3: big for the sport. And I hope he has a
Speaker 3: long and awesome career because he has he brings the
Speaker 3: same joy of the game that Feder did. If Feder
Speaker 3: is my favorite player of all time, and so I'm
Speaker 3: not in any way trying to disparage him, but the
Speaker 3: final Zverev lost the final more.
Speaker 2: Than al Karez won. In my opinion, I only saw.
Speaker 3: Flashes of kind of vintage outcraz like five six times
Speaker 3: during the entire run he had in the French Open.
Speaker 2: And I'm not even talking like stretches.
Speaker 3: I'm talking like individual points where he kind of you know,
Speaker 3: produced that level. And so you know, if he wins
Speaker 3: the win, if he wins Wimbledon, here like, I'll take
Speaker 3: my hat off. Like he has the athleticism, he has
Speaker 3: the goods, he has the skill set, he has, you know,
Speaker 3: all the tricks in his bag. We got him to
Speaker 3: win Wimbledon last year and one of my most fun
Speaker 3: wins of the entire twenty twenty three calendar. But you
Speaker 3: know the I watched the Draper match very closely at Queen's.
Speaker 2: He now went in this tournament, I don't think.
Speaker 1: Okay, so kN same question for you. We'll throw out
Speaker 1: Alcoraz for you though, Well, we'll get to some long
Speaker 1: shot value place here. From you, it sounds like in
Speaker 1: your heart of hearts, you believe it's either Center or Joker.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll call the final right now, Center three zero over.
Speaker 1: Djoovic, Center three zero over Djokovic. Okay, Well, there you go,
Speaker 1: Wimbledon people, you're gonna have a crappy final. Okay, center,
Speaker 1: by the way, trying to win his second slam out
Speaker 1: of three. If that is the case for the calendar,
Speaker 1: you're twenty twenty four, all right. So beyond those guys,
Speaker 1: Sasha Zverev, who just got beat try still trying to
Speaker 1: win his first slam. He lost in the finals of
Speaker 1: the US Open the year that Djokovic hit the lines
Speaker 1: girl with the ball. The lines were, we're with the ball,
Speaker 1: and so it was the team z Zverev. Oh my god,
Speaker 1: one of us besides the Big three gets to win
Speaker 1: a slam match, and it was on Zverev's getting the
Speaker 1: fifth set up five to four and he gacked it.
Speaker 1: Then this one the ump kind of helped take it
Speaker 1: away from him. Or Coots, now we get into some
Speaker 1: Orcott's a bit of a serve bot. Sixteen to one
Speaker 1: Medvedev always live. Eighteen to one. Draper, who I know, Zach,
Speaker 1: You've got stuff to say about you have a bet on.
Speaker 1: I think Draper is down to twenty to one. And
Speaker 1: then just in terms of other sort of serve body
Speaker 1: kind of people or guys who can win on the
Speaker 1: strength of their serve. Barrettini twenty two to one. Where
Speaker 1: are you, Milos round It one hundred to one? Milos
Speaker 1: Roundache coming playing, He's off, he's out, he's out. Well,
Speaker 1: DraftKings trying to steal money from people.
Speaker 3: Then I miss that tale's oldest time in the tenniest
Speaker 3: features market over there, they always have players. I'm sure
Speaker 3: Petra Kavito is probably on the women. She might be
Speaker 3: in the field. She's in the field.
Speaker 2: I bet on the one anyway.
Speaker 1: I'm just looking, Yeah, I'm just looking at some others here.
Speaker 3: All of those names, I mean, except for Draper, all
Speaker 3: those names nothing I think. I think the Medvedev and
Speaker 3: Zaverev and that class of characters being kind of discussed
Speaker 3: or bandeaed about, and the top five is absurd to me.
Speaker 2: I'm not seeing that at all.
Speaker 3: I definitely would say that after your top three, you know,
Speaker 3: the fourth and fifth should probably be Draper and demon
Speaker 3: are based on what we've seen so far on Grass this.
Speaker 1: Year, Demona are twenty two to one. Can I interest
Speaker 1: you in a little? Gregor Demetrov at twenty eight to one. Again,
Speaker 1: this is and this is the problem with Grass because
Speaker 1: like when we talk clay and we talk hardcourts. I
Speaker 1: can look in these numbers and say, here are the
Speaker 1: people that really surprise me with numbers. Here are the
Speaker 1: people who you know on men's and women's And maybe
Speaker 1: there's there's value here. If we did the same exercise
Speaker 1: with grass, we're really only talking about weeks, like a
Speaker 1: handful of weeks worth of data if I go back
Speaker 1: a year, if we do that, though, Gregor Demetrov has
Speaker 1: as good as numbers as anybody, So I just want
Speaker 1: to throw him out there as well, so does Alexander
Speaker 1: Bublic by the way, players like that, but it's just
Speaker 1: not as meaningful here. And so again you say it's
Speaker 1: Demonor and what was that? Who was the other one
Speaker 1: that you put it out there?
Speaker 3: Draper and Demon Draper and shown they've they've shown you
Speaker 3: high enough quality on grass on this cycle that you
Speaker 3: have to take them seriously. Plus they have they just
Speaker 3: have the game for it, right, Like Demon Tromp is
Speaker 3: just a good all round player, but I you know
Speaker 3: his loss to you know, he's he has some absolute
Speaker 3: like what the heck happened losses at Wimbledon over his career.
Speaker 3: Stan Vravrinka got him here. Stan Rinkle, who like notoriously
Speaker 3: hates like this particular tournament in this surface. Uh, he's
Speaker 3: lost to Gasca, He's lost to Stevie Johnson, Bublic got
Speaker 3: the better of him.
Speaker 2: He lost to Stevie Johnson again.
Speaker 3: And oh no, he lost to Stevie Johnson in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty two.
Speaker 2: What I forgot this? Like, oh good lord.
Speaker 3: So yeah, he has some absolute just laughable results on grass.
Speaker 3: I don't think he's really figured out the surface, and
Speaker 3: so I think he's a pass and you know, honestly,
Speaker 3: like it's gonna sound and what do you call it
Speaker 3: recency bias? But I'm fine if you want to put
Speaker 3: Tommy Paul sixth after Demon Aaron Draper, Yeah, Deman Aaron
Speaker 3: Draper pretty close for me, four or five, and I
Speaker 3: would put Tommy Paul six.
Speaker 1: By the way, we have we have two tournaments going
Speaker 1: on the men's side right now, but they're both two
Speaker 1: fifties in Majorca and Eastbourn. But of the four grass
Speaker 1: tournaments that have been played on the men's side a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago, Stuttgart and the Netherlands, I don't
Speaker 1: I'm not going to try to pronounce herto Genbosch Uh,
Speaker 1: Draper beat Barrettini in the final. In Stuttgart, Musetti and
Speaker 1: Nakashima got to the semis. There, Demonor, to your point,
Speaker 1: Draper and Dimino, Demonor beat Korda in the finals. In
Speaker 1: the Netherlands, Umber and Greekspor got to the semis. And
Speaker 1: these are the five hundreds. Last week in London, Tommy
Speaker 1: Paul beat Mussetti in the finals, Korda again and Thompson
Speaker 1: Jordan Thompson got to the semis. And in Halle last
Speaker 1: week Sinner took down her cuts, with Jang, Jjen and
Speaker 1: Zverev getting to the semis. So that's what's happened on grass.
Speaker 1: That's the That's the entire escort season, by the way,
Speaker 1: including the ones that are going on right now.
Speaker 3: Do you want a little cheat code for that tournament
Speaker 3: that you are struggling with? Just den Bush, gen Bush,
Speaker 3: Den Bush?
Speaker 1: Really? Do you have a cheat code for Bad Humburg?
Speaker 1: Do you have a cheat code for that as well? No, Zach,
Speaker 1: If so, if we extended past the big three, I
Speaker 1: sort of hinted that you like Draper, but who would
Speaker 1: be your guys at four and five and six?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll be honest.
Speaker 5: I grabbed Draper at one hundred to one, but I
Speaker 5: absolutely don't really think you can win the tournament. We
Speaker 5: spoke about this a little on a numbers game, but
Speaker 5: it's just a number grab. Like I do think he's
Speaker 5: one of the five or six best players on grass,
Speaker 5: but I do have concerns about his fitness still, he's
Speaker 5: a little bit unproven in best of fives. Tends to
Speaker 5: always have a match three or so rounds in where
Speaker 5: you know, it starts crapping up, loses a five setter
Speaker 5: where he loses to a player that he definitely should
Speaker 5: be until we kind of see him break through that,
Speaker 5: it's gonna be hard to believe in him, you know,
Speaker 5: winning a slam or even getting to you know, the
Speaker 5: subbies or finals of one. But yeah, the talent is there,
Speaker 5: the ability on grass is definitely there, and obviously you know,
Speaker 5: he's a hometown favorite, so that'll.
Speaker 4: Help him out a little bit.
Speaker 5: But I would agree kind of that demon Or is
Speaker 5: right there around the top five. And Tommy Paul is
Speaker 5: a player that I wrote down like these are players
Speaker 5: that I'm not looking at in terms of outrights, but
Speaker 5: you know, to maybe win quarters or get to the quarters,
Speaker 5: I think that, Yeah, Tommy Paul, I'd be a little
Speaker 5: bit interested in Quarda depending on the draw. But I'm
Speaker 5: a little bit nervous about the way he plays big points.
Speaker 4: But the talent's there for him as well.
Speaker 5: And I will say I'm a little more interested, I
Speaker 5: think than you guys in hube only because like, there
Speaker 5: was a pretty good run last year at Wimbledon. I
Speaker 5: think that he played Novak really well, just lost his
Speaker 5: cool and the tie breakers and couldn't get through there.
Speaker 5: But a four set match against Djokovic at Wimbledon's a
Speaker 5: pretty good performance for Hubie.
Speaker 4: Who.
Speaker 5: Yeah, just it's really really hard to break them and
Speaker 5: that's important on the surface.
Speaker 1: I completely I completely missed the roundage news another shoulder injury. Now,
Speaker 1: good god.
Speaker 3: I don't actually think that's it. It's he didn't get
Speaker 3: a wild card. They were gonna make them go through qualifying,
Speaker 3: and he is like, my body's not gonna make make
Speaker 3: it through quality because qualifying wimbled.
Speaker 2: It is tough.
Speaker 3: You got to play the best of five to get
Speaker 3: on your third in your third round, brutal uh. And
Speaker 3: then you know, if he had qualified, I don't think
Speaker 3: he was going to go anywhere. So this is just
Speaker 3: not getting a wild card took him out of this one.
Speaker 1: You wanted to say something after Zach Drro, I'm sorry
Speaker 1: I interrupted. I don't know if you want to say
Speaker 1: something afterwards.
Speaker 2: Let me just throw no on on Huby.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 3: Oh, I have a weird relationship with him on grass
Speaker 3: because his numbers, like a couple of years ago, were
Speaker 3: so good coming in wins Halla, and then he just
Speaker 3: completely lost it against David Davidovich Fakina in round one
Speaker 3: and it was just like like this was your chance, man,
Speaker 3: this is this was it, Like you could have made
Speaker 3: a big run here. And then the next year, of
Speaker 3: course he comes back and he goes deep. But you know,
Speaker 3: he's a he's he's he's lacking a little bit of,
Speaker 3: you know, kind of an X factor in terms of
Speaker 3: anything special about his game beyond his serve for me
Speaker 3: to get involved with.
Speaker 1: It's it's so interesting you bring his name up. I
Speaker 1: used to say this in when I used to handicap
Speaker 1: baseball on a daily basis. I used to say, Irvin Santana.
Speaker 1: Do you remember that picture Irvin Santana for the Twins.
Speaker 1: Irvin Santana was the guy that flummekesed me the most,
Speaker 1: so if I backed him, he would get shelled. And
Speaker 1: if I faded him, he was like Cy Young, right,
Speaker 1: so he was the guy that always killed me. Ubero
Speaker 1: Cots might be my guy on the Men's Tour, Like
Speaker 1: if I back him all of a sudden the serve
Speaker 1: he gets broken, right, And if I'm fading him, you
Speaker 1: cannot break him to save your life. That's my that
Speaker 1: I don't know. Is there a guy on the tour
Speaker 1: that does that to you? That's my guy?
Speaker 4: I think.
Speaker 5: I think I'm on the wrong side of every tafo
Speaker 5: match I've ever bet.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's there's always a guy. Yeah, all right, any
Speaker 1: other names we need to know? Nick Curios is not playing.
Speaker 1: That would have been fun, but no, no fun, that
Speaker 1: was taking on.
Speaker 3: I think the right qualification here is that there are
Speaker 3: three possible winners.
Speaker 2: Yeah, realistically yeah uh.
Speaker 3: And then there is a tier of players who I'm
Speaker 3: kind of intrigued to see if they land in like
Speaker 3: Carlos's quarter, right, because you're going to get a good
Speaker 3: price on like that tier of guys. If everybody just
Speaker 3: assumes Carlos is going to win Q two or Q three.
Speaker 2: Whatever, wherever he lands.
Speaker 3: And uh, and that includes that includes the Drapers and
Speaker 3: the the Demon Hours and the and the Tommy Tommy
Speaker 3: Pauls and maybe even the her Catchers of the world.
Speaker 3: And that's that's realistically, that's your top eight. And you know,
Speaker 3: the players that are coming into this just hotly, hotly
Speaker 3: overrated from what I can tell. You're looking at the
Speaker 3: outrights or Medvedev, Zverev, Rube love Bartini to a degree
Speaker 3: just because we haven't seen him put together consistent, good
Speaker 3: enough tennis on grass to this point. Uh, and just
Speaker 3: fit same fitness questions for him. Siss Pass is coming
Speaker 3: in way overrated.
Speaker 2: You know, who is he even going to show up?
Speaker 2: Is caspar Rude?
Speaker 3: You know, is not even making an attempt on grass,
Speaker 3: not even not even going to try. Uh, you know,
Speaker 3: he's He's gonna be hilarious to see who draws.
Speaker 2: I hope he.
Speaker 3: I hope he draws kind of an un known uh.
Speaker 3: And there's a good bet against him early in this tournament.
Speaker 3: But but yeah, I think Taylor Fritz is overpriced by market.
Speaker 3: Holder Roun is overpriced by market And uh, I think
Speaker 3: that's about where the list ends of people who could
Speaker 3: make a run in week two.
Speaker 1: Can Guy Almonfie get to week two.
Speaker 2: He's playing right now in my Orca. I don't think
Speaker 2: he's going to be long for Wimbledon.
Speaker 1: Bo Zach and I. Bozak, Yeah, Bozak and I had
Speaker 1: Bautista Goot this morning, so that was fun.
Speaker 5: I looked about as bad as possible in a win,
Speaker 5: by the way, like he was not holding each land,
Speaker 5: which is what you would expect from him in a
Speaker 5: grass court.
Speaker 4: So it was I would not say he has a.
Speaker 1: Chance with Bautista. Good died three times of that match
Speaker 1: before he finally died for Good. All right, Women's side,
Speaker 1: I think that's I think that's great final advice there, Drewis.
Speaker 1: So if you can find that once the Alcarez quarter
Speaker 1: is established, that might be the one where an opportunity
Speaker 1: to exists with one of the one of the folks mentioned.
Speaker 1: Lady side. Let me just give the results of the
Speaker 1: four tournaments that have happened so far, not the ones
Speaker 1: that are going on right now, but two fifties a
Speaker 1: couple of weeks ago. They reverse the two fifties and
Speaker 1: five hundreds. Samsonova beat Andrescu in the finals. In the Netherlands,
Speaker 1: Alexandrova and Galfi got to the semis in Nottingham, Bolter
Speaker 1: beat Pliskova. Pliskova has a great career on grass in
Speaker 1: her older age. Now, Radu Kano and Dion Pari got
Speaker 1: to the semis there, and then in the five hundreds
Speaker 1: last week, Jesse Pegoula beat Anna Kolinskaya, Yannick Center's girl
Speaker 1: Coco and Vika Azarenka got to the semis there and
Speaker 1: in Birmingham, which, oh, Birmingham was also a two to
Speaker 1: fifty pardon me, putin. Seva beat Isla Tamjanovich and Kocierreto
Speaker 1: and Potapova got to the semis in that, all right,
Speaker 1: So the lady's side much more interesting on this surface.
Speaker 1: This is not This is not clay, where Ego reigns.
Speaker 1: Rafa Nadal supreme on grass. She's won twenty two tournaments
Speaker 1: in her career, none on grass, not a one Arena
Speaker 1: Sabalenkas plus three to twenty IgA Siatek world number one
Speaker 1: currently plus three fifty Lena Rebakna, who won this tournament
Speaker 1: a couple of years back at five to one. The
Speaker 1: aforementioned Cocoa Golf plus six point fifty, Osaka thirteen to one,
Speaker 1: who scared Ega in the French jabor aforementioned sixteen to one,
Speaker 1: Marquette Vandrosova who won this last year sixteen to one
Speaker 1: as well, and then Jesse Pecula, Emirodi Kanu, Mira Andreva,
Speaker 1: Madison Keys, all between twenty to one and twenty five
Speaker 1: to one. This is far more interesting in my opinion,
Speaker 1: and Drew will start here with you. If we do
Speaker 1: the raw data again a year back, it's not like
Speaker 1: clay and hardcourt and we just do grass. It is
Speaker 1: actually Ega, surprisingly at least to me on grass, who
Speaker 1: has the best numbers, followed by Madison, Keys and Jesse Pegoula,
Speaker 1: two Americans before you get to sabal Anka and Rebaka.
Speaker 1: For what that's worth. How many different players can you
Speaker 1: even put a number on can win it on the women's.
Speaker 2: Side, Well, I think we learned last year that anyone
Speaker 2: can win. Yes, uh eight, I.
Speaker 3: Think I honestly the Vandrews, the Marquete Andrews of the
Speaker 3: run last year was so impossibly unexpected.
Speaker 1: Do you remember you and I didn't even mention her
Speaker 1: on the Wimbledon podcast.
Speaker 2: Why would we Why would would we have that was
Speaker 2: a response.
Speaker 3: I think she had two She had two career wins
Speaker 3: on grass heading into that tournament, and then one seven.
Speaker 2: But what what?
Speaker 1: What? What the fuck just happened?
Speaker 3: God damn it even even more than that, Like you
Speaker 3: watched back some of those like, I don't even like
Speaker 3: she didn't even really win as much as like her
Speaker 3: opponents just capitulated like out of the blue, including the final. Yeah,
Speaker 3: It's like, I'm like, I don't were we more surprised
Speaker 3: that she won or was she more surprised that she
Speaker 3: won that tournament?
Speaker 2: It's tough to say.
Speaker 1: I was. I was in Korea during that, during that
Speaker 1: run at wimbled last year, and I remember like checking
Speaker 1: the scores at the weirdest hours and just being like this,
Speaker 1: what am I? Is this the right tournament? What is this? Yeah?
Speaker 2: Do they have? Did they make? Is there a is
Speaker 2: this that?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 2: Okay? Really shoot one? Okay?
Speaker 3: It was so basically like the point of the matter
Speaker 3: is that, like, to the degree that clay tennis is
Speaker 3: extremely lopsided now in terms of wind probability, grass is
Speaker 3: flat earth, and the players who have stood out all
Speaker 3: have huge demerits heading into this cycle and honestly, taking
Speaker 3: a bigger ish price and just hoping for something fun
Speaker 3: to happen.
Speaker 2: Is probably the way to play it.
Speaker 3: I'd like to kind of point out two things about
Speaker 3: this draw, or about the way that that the seating
Speaker 3: is shaped. Yes, he obviously comes in number one, and
Speaker 3: I would like to hear other people's opinions on what's
Speaker 3: going on with her mindset for this tournament, because like
Speaker 3: she did, she pulled out of Berlin, which like one
Speaker 3: reading of that is, yeah, I'm just gonna keep trying
Speaker 3: to keep my clay form on point for the Olympics
Speaker 3: and win a gold medal for Polska because it's that's
Speaker 3: at rolling garrows like that, that's that's not crazy.
Speaker 2: Fine, no, no, Uh, by the way, was strong brief interjection.
Speaker 1: What number would they have to make her in the
Speaker 1: Olympics for you not to bet her to win?
Speaker 4: That?
Speaker 3: Probably minus two hundred dish, Yeah, i'd be It's a
Speaker 3: small it's a small tournament, it's a small field, and
Speaker 3: like yeah, yeah, yeah, this is it's a it's a
Speaker 3: weak field, it's a small field, and it's on chat.
Speaker 2: So if she's gonna probably win without dropping.
Speaker 3: The set, but uh the yeah, I don't know what
Speaker 3: her mindset is coming too this tournament.
Speaker 1: You said, I'm sorry with house money. Yeah, I don't know,
Speaker 1: I interrupted. So one one option is she wants to
Speaker 1: keep her form to win the Olympics for as you
Speaker 1: put it, Polska for Poland. Uh. The other what was
Speaker 1: the other mind? And said, what was the other option?
Speaker 1: That she's just a job.
Speaker 2: She just doesn't like playing her grass. She doesn't like.
Speaker 3: She doesn't like, you know, like it's it's she's going
Speaker 3: to She's going to get the money for showing up
Speaker 3: and playing this tournament, but she doesn't like to like.
Speaker 1: I really don't know, Zachary, what's your reads act on that?
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 5: I have EGA at plus three thirty and it's available
Speaker 5: at a better number now. I really only took it
Speaker 5: just because you know, she's first in the world, and
Speaker 5: whole percentage and break percentage over the last fifty two
Speaker 5: weeks to serve has gotten a lot better since twenty
Speaker 5: twenty three. I just think that there's a chance that
Speaker 5: she almost lucks into finding herself late into the draw,
Speaker 5: and then she does have to kind of reelin that
Speaker 5: focus and try to find a way to find the motivation.
Speaker 5: I agree that like these some of these players that
Speaker 5: are playing the Olympics are way more focused on the Olympics.
Speaker 5: But at the same time, I think that there have
Speaker 5: been changes to Ego's game that are going to make
Speaker 5: her more effective on quicker courts, and I think eventually
Speaker 5: she's going to win a Wimbledon. She's gonna win some
Speaker 5: more gums on the hard court. So I think you're
Speaker 5: why not take a chance now? But I would say
Speaker 5: that's not my favorite bet of.
Speaker 1: The I got her at four to one. I did
Speaker 1: not expect to bet her, but when it was four
Speaker 1: to one, I was like, Okay, I'll take that. Like
Speaker 1: her numbers are still good on it, but I will.
Speaker 1: I respond by saying I didn't think I was gonna
Speaker 1: bet it than I did, and the reason I bet
Speaker 1: it was for some reason when she said she said, oh,
Speaker 1: I can adjust to clay easy. It's no problem for me.
Speaker 1: And I know that's more of a commentary on the
Speaker 1: clay tournament than it is on the grass tournament, But
Speaker 1: somehow in my brain I immediately toggled to oh, she
Speaker 1: has no like unlike the French, where the pressure of
Speaker 1: the world is on her to be rough an a
Speaker 1: doll like that I can't imagine, like imagine, Okay, you're
Speaker 1: the female raffina doll, You're the Queen of Clay. I mean,
Speaker 1: obviously you're gonna win this. And we saw her just
Speaker 1: sobbing after the Osaka match afterwards, like oh my god,
Speaker 1: and she'd never after that. She was just unbeatable. But
Speaker 1: she is Zack's point. She is free of any pressure here,
Speaker 1: and she's already won once on once a slam on
Speaker 1: hard courts. One day she's going to win Wimbledon, Like
Speaker 1: I'm kind of convinced of that, and it might be,
Speaker 1: like I think this might be as good a chance
Speaker 1: of any where. We'll get into the Rabakna questions momentarily,
Speaker 1: like I don't know what's going on with her. You know,
Speaker 1: there's a lot swirling around her. Sabalanca just seems to
Speaker 1: me to just be so angry about all is an
Speaker 1: egg you can just free flow here. So I thought
Speaker 1: it was worth a bet. Not my favorite you get
Speaker 1: bet of all time, but I thought, at four to one,
Speaker 1: I'll take a shot on that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know, Yeah, I honestly don't know what's
Speaker 3: going to happen. The loss to Sidelina last year was like,
Speaker 3: that was ugly? What the heck happened? The loss to
Speaker 3: I was a cornet the year before was what the
Speaker 3: heck happened?
Speaker 2: You know? I think the fact that.
Speaker 3: You have players in the draw who are just are
Speaker 3: more experienced on grass, like she could run into one
Speaker 3: of them, have not be having a great day, and
Speaker 3: that's it. And so you know, I'm kind of I
Speaker 3: don't think it's crazy to take a price on her,
Speaker 3: but I will also be like, you know, like wow,
Speaker 3: not you know, we should never be shocked when you
Speaker 3: go wins the tournament, but you know it's also going
Speaker 3: to be a little bit like wow, Okay, that's interesting,
Speaker 3: that's surprising. So I'm going to make what you're going
Speaker 3: to make a case for for the number two seed?
Speaker 1: Please go ahead.
Speaker 2: Do you guys know who the number two seed is?
Speaker 1: I'm assuming it's Sablenca, isn't it? It's not who's the
Speaker 1: number two seed?
Speaker 2: Doesn't go golf?
Speaker 1: Wait?
Speaker 2: Does go GoF is the two seeds?
Speaker 1: Wait? Isn't Wimbledon the tournament?
Speaker 2: Oh?
Speaker 1: No, Wimbledon is the tournament where they take license. That's right,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I know.
Speaker 3: They Yeah, they I don't even know what I think
Speaker 3: they did away with that. I think they're just going
Speaker 3: off of world rankings right now, and Sabalanca is number
Speaker 3: three somehow. I don't know how or when or why this,
Speaker 3: Like I like, the math just doesn't make sense to me,
Speaker 3: other than like Coco Goth had such a hot fall
Speaker 3: last year and you know, apparently, like you know, the
Speaker 3: Sablanca must have dropped some point.
Speaker 2: I just did pick up on it.
Speaker 1: I actually remember. I remember during the French Open, they said,
Speaker 1: if Cocoa wins this, she's the number two seed in.
Speaker 2: The Yeah, so Coco's the world.
Speaker 3: Coco's world number two right now, and that matters for
Speaker 3: a couple of reasons. Number One, she's not gonna have
Speaker 3: to play you get to the final, if he even
Speaker 3: get to the final. So she's not going to have
Speaker 3: to potentially go toe to toe with her.
Speaker 2: Bully and totally bliser.
Speaker 3: I think, yeah, And I think that if again, like
Speaker 3: the case is weak, but here you go, you're ready.
Speaker 3: If there's a player whose delta is more significant from
Speaker 3: last season to this season on grass than Cocoa Golf,
Speaker 3: I don't see it. Her rating this year. You know
Speaker 3: what she played in what was a very brief couple
Speaker 3: of matches in the run up to ultimately getting beat
Speaker 3: by Pagoula and Berlin was way beyond what we saw
Speaker 3: from her last year on grass where she was lost,
Speaker 3: and in particular, the match she had against Ahn's Jibor
Speaker 3: was I thought very telling because you know, again Jibor
Speaker 3: is a master of the surface, like she's exact knows
Speaker 3: exactly how to get the most out of her game
Speaker 3: on this surface, and uh and Golf I thought, went
Speaker 3: toe to toe with her until Jabor had to retire,
Speaker 3: ultimately winning that first set tiebreak, but really nice match
Speaker 3: against Alexandrova, who again has a ton of credibility and
Speaker 3: ton of credit on grass. And then ultimately, you know,
Speaker 3: losing a seven five, seven six to Pabula, who's good
Speaker 3: on grasses.
Speaker 2: That's that's that's fine with me too.
Speaker 3: So I think ultimately I'm seeing enough in terms of
Speaker 3: golf kind of taking a step forward on this surface.
Speaker 3: Combined with the fact that she'll be the two seed
Speaker 3: and have a potentially week quarter, combined with not having
Speaker 3: to play Ega until at at earliest, if ever the final,
Speaker 3: all that to me spells miss miss Price in the
Speaker 3: seven to one range, because that everybody else who you
Speaker 3: would want to make a case for, uh, you know,
Speaker 3: the super powerful, the you know, the the strong server
Speaker 3: serving rebaccan is, the Sabalancas. Like these women are going
Speaker 3: through something right now. They're not, They're not you know,
Speaker 3: you know, time for peak performance. The Jessica Pagoulas of
Speaker 3: the world, who people have always been like, god man,
Speaker 3: her game is perfect for grass, Like, I'll believe it
Speaker 3: when I see that she can beat like a top
Speaker 3: to top level player in a major tournament. And you know,
Speaker 3: past there, it's just the who's who of people with
Speaker 3: question marks and issues. You mentioned the keys I think
Speaker 3: you know, certainly keys Is is going to have something
Speaker 3: to say about a quarter, But I don't know if
Speaker 3: she could win this tournament, and you know, so ultimately,
Speaker 3: I'm just not seeing anyone with enough all around quality
Speaker 3: here that I don't am not interested. I'm interested in
Speaker 3: this price on coco.
Speaker 1: Does this mark the first time you've ever made a
Speaker 1: case for Cocoa golf in any one of our podcasts?
Speaker 2: And feels like it, I would say probably probably.
Speaker 1: By the way, here are the top ten rankings on
Speaker 1: the WTA Tour all surfaces. Please don't look as I'm
Speaker 1: curiously because it's Ego one, it's Cocoa two, Saballenca three
Speaker 1: were Bakna four? No surprises once we found out about Coco. There.
Speaker 1: Do you have any guess who five is?
Speaker 2: I'm sure it is right.
Speaker 1: It is Pagula. Five is Pagula. Then you have Vandrosova six,
Speaker 1: She's about to lose a whole bunch of points. Paulini
Speaker 1: seven after her French Open run. Wow, Jangshin win is eight,
Speaker 1: Sakari nine, Jabor ten, freaking Collins eleven, Mattie Keys twelve.
Speaker 1: Like if you've given me all the money in the
Speaker 1: world and be like, where do you think Maddie Keys
Speaker 1: is rank? Right now, I'd be like twenty one. Well,
Speaker 1: I'll just throw that out there. Twelve she's great on grass, though, man,
Speaker 1: I agree with you about the quarter. She's got great
Speaker 1: numbers on grass. She's not gonna win at all, but
Speaker 1: she could get deep. Okay, So that's the case for Coco, Zach,
Speaker 1: you have a case for somebody else.
Speaker 5: I mean, I was gonna make him Outison kis so yeah,
Speaker 5: me too. I just yeah, I mean, like we talked
Speaker 5: about how there's a lack of data on the grass court,
Speaker 5: but you know, forty four and fourteen on grass, nine.
Speaker 4: And one in the last fifty two weeks.
Speaker 5: Yea, her whole percentage is up at like seventy eight
Speaker 5: percent on this surface, which is, you know, kind of
Speaker 5: back to earlier in her career when she used to
Speaker 5: be a much better server than she is now. You
Speaker 5: couple that with the improvement she's made in.
Speaker 4: Her return game.
Speaker 5: I just really like her as a fit for this
Speaker 5: surface because she has the ability to hold pretty easily,
Speaker 5: she gets balls back on serve, and she has that
Speaker 5: finishing power in the baseline game. I just also think,
Speaker 5: like quietly, she's played as well as anyone this year,
Speaker 5: Like she's she's a career high winning percentage in twenty
Speaker 5: twenty four, has some titles, Like I just think that
Speaker 5: she's playing some really underrated tennis. I think last year
Speaker 5: at the US Open, she looked about as good as
Speaker 5: anyone before blowing that match against sabal Anca. So I
Speaker 5: just kind of think that she's right for a deep,
Speaker 5: deep run and potentially even a title at some point.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Madison Keys, I'm just calling up her crew. Was
Speaker 1: that career grass you were just talking about when y'all
Speaker 1: say that, Yeah, so I'm showing the let me see that.
Speaker 1: So let's repeat those forty five and fifteen I'm seeing
Speaker 1: with again. If you do service points and return points
Speaker 1: win percentage, she's at one oh six point five, which
Speaker 1: is not quite elite, but like right below that. So yeah,
Speaker 1: she has just great pedigree on grass, and I'm with
Speaker 1: you now, I would have liked it to be a
Speaker 1: little longer than what it is, quite frankly, like just
Speaker 1: above you know, somewhere between twenty and twenty five to
Speaker 1: one somewhere in that pocket is not as sexy as
Speaker 1: I'd like it to be. But I'm with you there, Zach.
Speaker 1: I do like it's gonna be interesting to see what
Speaker 1: what quarter she gets into on that. Jesse Pagoula has
Speaker 1: good grass numbers, But you're right, Drew, like on a
Speaker 1: big tournament, she's never she's never done it. Do you
Speaker 1: have any faith in Vondrasova to make a deep run?
Speaker 4: Here?
Speaker 1: Where's your boor?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 2: Neither one?
Speaker 1: Neither one?
Speaker 3: I mean you boor again, just because she's the master
Speaker 3: of the craft. Her craft is so special on the surface, like, yeah,
Speaker 3: she could she could do something, but the idea of
Speaker 3: her getting into another final and having all of the
Speaker 3: emotional stuff solved. Okay, stop Menka, Yeah when I see it.
Speaker 1: Stop me. When I get to a name. Again, we
Speaker 1: don't have the draw yet. It's not me when I
Speaker 1: get to a name where you're like, oh, she could
Speaker 1: be something if the draw is right, Katie, Katie Bolter.
Speaker 2: I'll stop here.
Speaker 5: Like she played, she's played so on grass to sear,
Speaker 5: and I think that the losses she's had have come
Speaker 5: down to like boneheaded decisions on big points. I think
Speaker 5: she's got some really really impressive grass court stuff.
Speaker 1: Emma rod O Kanu sure.
Speaker 3: Also, they both weirdly, they both had like embarrassing losses
Speaker 3: today that I saw. So I'm a little biased against
Speaker 3: both of them at this exact minute, right because they
Speaker 3: both looked terrible today, looked good.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's I mean, this is why I'm bringing up
Speaker 1: these names, because I I'd like for you to stop
Speaker 1: in your tracks. Let's get a little more, let's get
Speaker 1: a little more nebulous here.
Speaker 2: Tom Yanovich, that's a weird one.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a weird one.
Speaker 2: To do something special.
Speaker 3: Adad Maya is always you know, she's a she's the
Speaker 3: one that's never afraid to kind of go.
Speaker 1: Well, that's that's the interesting thing about her because people
Speaker 1: think of her as a clay court specialist, but her
Speaker 1: grass numbers are really good too.
Speaker 3: Sure, yeah, sure, I would listen to an argument for
Speaker 3: sam Sonova, even though she's a no show in big moments.
Speaker 1: I want to regularly I want to punch her in
Speaker 1: the face. I'm sorry, I.
Speaker 3: Would listen to a Pawllini argument honestly, really, the fact
Speaker 3: that she was able to do what she did in
Speaker 3: the French Open is notable. By the way, I don't
Speaker 3: think I don't think we should be looking past Pallini
Speaker 3: as far as like, uh, you know this, She's got
Speaker 3: a couple of things in her bag that are that
Speaker 3: that should could be good for grass. The fact that
Speaker 3: she is a little on the shorter side and low
Speaker 3: center and gravity like and she can play low balls
Speaker 3: like that's that's should help her.
Speaker 1: May I just say that while Ega destroyed her in
Speaker 1: the finals, Jasmine Paullini won the post match press conference
Speaker 1: in a landslide. Oh sure, she was so charming and
Speaker 1: Ego wash after that was just like, oh.
Speaker 3: My god, Yeah, my two principal takeaways from the Frenchwoman's final.
Speaker 3: Yes if you if you blinked, you missed it. Sorry,
Speaker 3: But the two major takeaways Pallini is is a gem.
Speaker 3: I really hope she has a nice little late career
Speaker 3: arc here me too, And uh uh.
Speaker 2: Macn Roe, why are we putting him on women's tennis? Honestly?
Speaker 2: Like the degree to which he did not.
Speaker 3: Give a fuck about that match was like like startling?
Speaker 1: Was it was? It also because it was like their
Speaker 1: last broadcast or something, because they don't have the French
Speaker 1: Open anymore, you would know better than I.
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't know that, but made the comment too.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, all of it was the entire thing, the
Speaker 3: entire My wife was watching with me and.
Speaker 2: She was like, is he drunk?
Speaker 4: Like like it was?
Speaker 3: It was really really bizarre. And you know, and this
Speaker 3: isn't new, Like he doesn't know the women's players, he
Speaker 3: doesn't care about the women's game like I don't, and
Speaker 3: and like this it was just you know why I
Speaker 3: was especially stark. I listened to a lot of Tennis Channel.
Speaker 3: They had amazing commentary for the French Open. Broadly, Courier
Speaker 3: was a breakout dude. Yeah, dude had no idea he
Speaker 3: had that.
Speaker 1: Oh true, true. Jim Currier, I contend is the best
Speaker 1: analyst of any sport, of any color, analyst of any
Speaker 1: sport going. I think he is so good.
Speaker 3: Courier high praise, but he was excellent. Yeah, the but
Speaker 3: even I was doing a lot of live betting during
Speaker 3: the matches, and the fastest feed was radio rolling Garrows.
Speaker 3: Like the talent on the radio rolling Garrows is like
Speaker 3: a plus plus. Like their crews were outstanding, and it
Speaker 3: was yeah, like hearing the good tennis, hearing Courier, Tennis
Speaker 3: Channel Radio and Garrison. Then you tune in the women's
Speaker 3: final and McEnroe just could not, you know, give a
Speaker 3: bleep that he's even era.
Speaker 2: It's just like, what what are we doing?
Speaker 1: Are you?
Speaker 4: Are you?
Speaker 2: I was shocked?
Speaker 1: Are you suggesting that John McEnroe has a sexist comment
Speaker 1: in him from time to time? By the way, how
Speaker 1: does radio how does radio tennis go? Could you give
Speaker 1: a little sample of that, like how does that go?
Speaker 2: Okay?
Speaker 3: So here's the deal, Right, you see people in the
Speaker 3: you see the crowd shots and and people have their
Speaker 3: headphones in Yeah, like they're listening to the commentary on
Speaker 3: radio one gurse, which is truly like live live, like
Speaker 3: like no delay, and so you're ahead of flash score,
Speaker 3: you're ahead of the odd screen, you're ahead of everything.
Speaker 3: Listening to the call and uh, it's a good mix
Speaker 3: of like literally like when there's a rally and it's
Speaker 3: going for real like they're literally you know, looping forehand
Speaker 3: like like down the line, down the line looping.
Speaker 1: So they are doing they'll.
Speaker 3: They're telling you the what you know, what shots are
Speaker 3: are being shot, and they're they'll call they'll call them
Speaker 3: in and out before the jumpires will like they'll they'll
Speaker 3: give you kind of more color on what's happening when
Speaker 3: you're going to get from just listening to the broadcast,
Speaker 3: because the broadcast they mostly just like let the sound
Speaker 3: of the rally kind of dominate, and in the on
Speaker 3: the on the radio call, you get a lot more
Speaker 3: Wow I.
Speaker 1: Would wonder of them. And there's a forehead and there's
Speaker 1: a backhand, and there's a forehead, there's.
Speaker 3: A volley, and they do a nice job of really
Speaker 3: kind of dialing in on points that matter and moments
Speaker 3: that matter and giving you the detail then and then
Speaker 3: when it's just like we're on serve three three forty
Speaker 3: love Okay, then they're like reading emails and reading tweets
Speaker 3: and you know, and then just you know, what'd you
Speaker 3: have for dinner last night?
Speaker 2: That type of stuff.
Speaker 3: So it's it's kind of the exact right note for
Speaker 3: somebody who is just watching an odd screen.
Speaker 1: That's right. Let me throw out one more name and
Speaker 1: then Zach, you can tell us what else you bet.
Speaker 1: Naomi Osaka got a tweet this morning somebody asking me
Speaker 1: what do you think about a flyer on Osaka, who,
Speaker 1: of course, for those who don't know, four time Grand
Speaker 1: Slam winner, all on hard courts, and of course Kavea
Speaker 1: the scare of her life during the French Open in
Speaker 1: this pass lamp. Now she's on grass.
Speaker 5: Anything I gotta say, Like watching French Open match, I
Speaker 5: was thinking like Osaka might be a threat at Wimbledon
Speaker 5: because he's just punishing balls, kind of standing in the
Speaker 5: middle of the court and just hitting lines. But at
Speaker 5: the same time, like we transferred over to grass and
Speaker 5: now it just looks pretty clear that the movement's still
Speaker 5: not there. She needs a little bit more time to
Speaker 5: set her feet to hit these shots. So I think
Speaker 5: it's as much as it might seem like a surface
Speaker 5: for her.
Speaker 4: I don't think it is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the answer to that is naome Osaka
Speaker 1: at the US Open might be a thing, right, given
Speaker 1: more time and on that surface. Okay, Zach, what else
Speaker 1: did you bet any anybody else here? Are you thinking about?
Speaker 4: No, that's it.
Speaker 5: I just want to say, like Drew made a pretty
Speaker 5: good point about Paulini being kind of like low to
Speaker 5: the ground, being able to get some balls out like
Speaker 5: that is something that you know, we kind of talk
Speaker 5: about the big servers all the time in Wimbledon, but
Speaker 5: the reason guys like demon Or and Tommy Paul have
Speaker 5: some success here is because they can defend on this
Speaker 5: surface the ways that other players can't. So there is
Speaker 5: some value in having the speed and having the defensive ability.
Speaker 5: It might not be as productive as it is on
Speaker 5: other courts, but it does have some effect here.
Speaker 1: Drew, if your advice for the men's side was wait
Speaker 1: for the Carlos Alcarez quarter and then there might be
Speaker 1: some value there on a on a Tommy Paul or
Speaker 1: a Jack Draper or that kind of player. What would
Speaker 1: be your macro advice here, pre Draw?
Speaker 3: I think get Coco now before people, because it seems
Speaker 3: like people don't realize that she's apoga. She's not gonna
Speaker 3: have to go through Sabalanca or Rebakana in quarters. The
Speaker 3: second the the the second seed affords her a really
Speaker 3: comfortable path, and I think her delta in terms of
Speaker 3: performance last year to this year is meaningful. So get
Speaker 3: Coco before pre draw, post draw. Yeah, shop for a
Speaker 3: shop for some uh you know, shop for some of
Speaker 3: the players that we think have a high ceiling in
Speaker 3: Q two, Q three, uh and uh you know, I
Speaker 3: would say, take on a wily vet in Q one
Speaker 3: against Ega. That's my personal that's my that's my approach.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna. I'm gonna.
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna find the Fiddelina or the alas a cornet,
Speaker 3: you know, I'm not gonna. I would not have taken
Speaker 3: swings on that is what I'm saying. But if there's like,
Speaker 3: you know, a keys, somebody who has pedigree on grass
Speaker 3: that lands in Q one, I don't mind taking on Ega.
Speaker 1: Price there, undressed, scu Andreva, Cassatkina.
Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, can if ban Drusova can win, these
Speaker 3: women can win, but it's not likely.
Speaker 1: Okay, And then we have to close, because I really
Speaker 1: feel like we didn't give enough enough juice to Sablenca
Speaker 1: or Rebacca. I was sort of alluding earlier to the
Speaker 1: fact that Rebacca, I don't know what's going on with her.
Speaker 1: She doesn't look great, she got she's she has withdrawn.
Speaker 1: I was going through her season, her entire calendar year.
Speaker 1: I wish I could I had this down. I wrote
Speaker 1: this all down. She has withdrawn from four different tournaments
Speaker 1: this year, including the most recent one where it was
Speaker 1: I think a stomach issue. It's been there's been a
Speaker 1: lot of stomach things with her, so like, could you
Speaker 1: ever like My immediate reaction to that was, well, I
Speaker 1: can't bet her through seven matches. That's crazy. I don't
Speaker 1: know if you feel the same way. And then sad Blanka,
Speaker 1: are we are? Are you just not? Is the price
Speaker 1: too short? And you're just not interested?
Speaker 2: Both both?
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a pretty good combination. I'm not interested and I.
Speaker 2: Wasn't interested anyway, and the price.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wish I found that rebacking. I think, yeah,
Speaker 1: but she's just uh, I mean, you can't trust her.
Speaker 4: Right does miss a lot of time and it's always oldest.
Speaker 4: It's not injury like it doesn't make any sense right now.
Speaker 1: On the other hand, if she showed up and she
Speaker 1: started crushing people, would you be that surprised either, I
Speaker 1: wouldn't I would at this point, at this point you would. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, like.
Speaker 3: I'm trying to even think when the like the best
Speaker 3: she looked all year was like pre Aussie.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then she lost that twenty two to twenty
Speaker 1: tie breaker at the ausse.
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah yeah. And and like the fact that the
Speaker 2: best she looked was off the big long break.
Speaker 3: It's not good, you know, Like, I like, something's going
Speaker 3: on where like the she can't sustain the demands that
Speaker 3: she's under in terms of the tournaments she's entering.
Speaker 2: That's with all. That's what all these withdrawals are.
Speaker 3: And and you know, in general, uh, you know, she's
Speaker 3: making some deep runs, she's beating the players she should,
Speaker 3: but she's making it harder than it ought to be, uh,
Speaker 3: you know, going you know, three sets regularly this entire run.
Speaker 2: Ye, she goes, notably at Miami.
Speaker 1: Yeah, she's one. She's You're right, she's when she's played,
Speaker 1: she's one. She's won three tournaments this year. She won
Speaker 1: Brisbane before the Aussie then she got then the blink
Speaker 1: OVID twenty two to twenty. She won Abu Dhabi right
Speaker 1: after that, and then Lady.
Speaker 3: She looked so good in Brisbane that I was literally like,
Speaker 3: oh my god, I'm betting her so much this year,
Speaker 3: like this is like this is her breakout, Like holy crap,
Speaker 3: she might end world number one. Like that was going
Speaker 3: through my head watching that, you know, Foray, and then
Speaker 3: it just went. It just went sideways for her super quickly.
Speaker 1: And I mean, yeah, she won, shook her. Yeah, but
Speaker 1: I mean like, okay, you're right, like so, and then
Speaker 1: she got the finals in Miami. I mean, she's had
Speaker 1: really good performances, but here are all the withdrawals, finals
Speaker 1: and caught her where she lost to Sciatech. She withdrew
Speaker 1: from Dubai gastro Intestinal, she withdrew from Indian Wells gastro Intestinal,
Speaker 1: she withdrew from Rome, and then she withdrew from Berlin,
Speaker 1: which is most recent after getting to the quarters in
Speaker 1: Paris and Paullini beater. So yeah, and then she didn't
Speaker 1: she have that pissy press conference also right where she's
Speaker 1: like the same stupid questions. Yeah, by the way, I
Speaker 1: don't know what that accent was so that was.
Speaker 2: Not her Kazakhstani.
Speaker 1: I don't know what that was. I was like French
Speaker 1: frenching it up for some reason.
Speaker 3: All right, No, I'll go on record. She has a
Speaker 3: To me, it seems like she has a toxic relationship
Speaker 3: with her coach, and I think she changes her team.
Speaker 3: I'm out.
Speaker 1: I think you're right. He's the coach, but I don't know.
Speaker 1: I can't remember his name off top. I can just
Speaker 1: google it. But he's the coach that is all, always
Speaker 1: talking throughout the entire match. I can see how he'd
Speaker 1: be annoying, like he's constantly like every point if she
Speaker 1: messes up a point, like as opposed to like, what's
Speaker 1: the opposite of that ego where dude Toomas is just
Speaker 1: like steal stoic the whole way through. Well because he
Speaker 1: probably knows he's gonna win it anyway. All right, guys,
Speaker 1: I appreciate it. That is a that is a bunch
Speaker 1: of food for thought. I think we did as well
Speaker 1: as we could for a pre draw pod as we
Speaker 1: possibly could food for thought for everybody for tennis's third major, Wimbledon,
Speaker 1: still the most prestigious. I don't know if it's the
Speaker 1: one that the players like necessarily think is the one
Speaker 1: that they want the most. Maybe it is in some
Speaker 1: people's cases, but it's considered still the most prestigious of
Speaker 1: them all. Ega trying to win her first on grass.
Speaker 1: Sablenka is the short shot on the lady side, and
Speaker 1: of course the Big three current Big Three Sinner Alcoraz
Speaker 1: and Djokovic, who appears to be a go on the
Speaker 1: men's side, Drew Denzik Wale, Underscore Caapper, Deep Dive podcast
Speaker 1: with Andy Molitor, and of course NBC Sports Bet the
Speaker 1: Edge with Jay Croucher. When do your Deep Dive NFL
Speaker 1: previews begin, sir?
Speaker 3: Next week We're gonna talk some schedule talk, some schedule spots,
Speaker 3: and then after the fourth of July, we're going to
Speaker 3: do a division a week.
Speaker 2: Wow, you get us through the summer, okay?
Speaker 1: Zach Cohen Zach your official title at vsons what.
Speaker 4: What is your official senior editor?
Speaker 1: Senior editor? You can follow him on betting on X.
Speaker 1: Thanks for doing the Zach first time on the show.
Speaker 1: I appreciate it, man.
Speaker 5: Yeah, no problem. I'll have a bunch of after the
Speaker 5: draw on the website too.
Speaker 1: At vsin dot com, that's where all Zack's Zach's daily
Speaker 1: picks are, and I'll have him on the Vson Picks
Speaker 1: page as well Visa dot Com slash picks for subscribers.
Speaker 1: For Drew and for Zach, thanks for listening. Good luck
Speaker 1: with all your bets at Wimbledon in twenty twenty four.