1 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 1: On this episode of Neutch World. As war continues the 2 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: Middle East between Israel and Hamas and Palestine, we witnessed 3 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: I ran back militia's attack a US base on Sunday. 4 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:19,119 Speaker 1: Three American troops were killed and several were wounded. On 5 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: January twenty eighth, and a drone strike in northeast Jordan 6 00:00:22,560 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: near the Syrian border. The military base is known as 7 00:00:25,480 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: Tower twenty two. The one Way Enemy Attack drone approached 8 00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: the base around the same time as a US surveillance drone, 9 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:37,640 Speaker 1: causing confusion and preventing the US from deploying air defenses. 10 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:40,920 Speaker 1: Since mid October, there have been at least one hundred 11 00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 1: and sixty five attacks on US troops in Iraq, Syria, 12 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 1: and Jordan. The US has launched several retaliatory strikes, including 13 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 1: in Iraq. Joining me to talk about the escalating tensions 14 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 1: in the Middle East and what the United States response 15 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: should be. I am really pleased to welcome my guests, 16 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:03,400 Speaker 1: benham Bent He is a senior fellow at the Foundation 17 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:07,000 Speaker 1: for Defensive Democracies with a focus on Iran, and I 18 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: must say I find the Foundation for Defensive Democracies one 19 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 1: of the most useful organizations in understanding what is happening 20 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 1: around the world. Venham, welcome and thank you for joining 21 00:01:31,440 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 1: me on Newtsworld. 22 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 2: It's an absolute pleasure. Sure great to be with you. 23 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 1: I have to ask you. On January twenty eighth, the 24 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 1: three Americans were killed about twenty three were injured in 25 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: a drone strike in northeast Jordan near the Syrian border. Most, 26 00:01:45,400 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: if not all, those injured and killed were Army soldiers 27 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: at a base known as Tower twenty two, which has 28 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 1: been in support of the counter ISIS mission for years. 29 00:01:55,040 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: A coalition of Iran backed militant groups calling themselves the 30 00:01:59,640 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: islam Make Resistance in Iraq claimed responsibility. The Pentagon on 31 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 1: Monday announced the names of the three Army reservists killed 32 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,799 Speaker 1: as Sergeant William Jeron Rivers of Carrollton, Georgia, where I 33 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 1: used to teach you, West Georgia, College, Specialist Kennedy Leyden 34 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 1: Sanders of Waycross, Georgia, and Specialist Briona Alexandria Moffatt of Savannah, Georgia. 35 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: They were, by the way, forty six years old, twenty 36 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 1: four and twenty three, all from an Army Reserve engineering 37 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: unit from Georgia. Biden said the US quote, will hold 38 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:36,640 Speaker 1: all those responsible to account at a time and in 39 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: a manner of our choosing. Secretary of Austin and the 40 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 1: Secretary of Defense said, these brave Americans and their families 41 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,880 Speaker 1: are in my prayers, and the entire Department of Defense 42 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 1: mourns their loss. Our Ran backed militias are responsible for 43 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 1: these continued attacks on US forces, and we will respond 44 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: at a time and place of our choosing. Fresh wol 45 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: I think it's interesting that they both use exactly the 46 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:00,959 Speaker 1: same language. We will respond at a time and place 47 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: where're choosing. But what do you make of all this. 48 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 3: It's a pretty complex situation right now because the Islamic 49 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 3: Republic of Iran has a proxy network that they themselves 50 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:15,359 Speaker 3: have been calling the axis of resistance. And in this 51 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 3: axis they have some terror groups which we know they've created, 52 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:22,639 Speaker 3: groups like Lebanese Hezbolah. Some say that's the most successful 53 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 3: export of the nineteen seventy nine Islamic Revolution in Iran. 54 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 3: Then you have other groups like the Bodder organization in Iraq. 55 00:03:30,120 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 3: But then contrasting that, you have groups that the regime 56 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 3: did not create, but groups that they have co opted. 57 00:03:36,360 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 3: Good examples are Hamas and Gaza starting in nineteen eighty 58 00:03:39,800 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 3: nine as a spoiler to peace, and then arming them, 59 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 3: training them, equipping them, and then much more recently you 60 00:03:45,080 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 3: have the Huthis in Yemen, and also this group was 61 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 3: brought into the fold with lethal advanced weaponry. The militia 62 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 3: networks that treat the Iraq Syria border as something of 63 00:03:57,280 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 3: a less a passe, much like the Taliban and their 64 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 3: supporters in Pakistan tree at the Afghanistan Pakistan border as 65 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 3: non existent, benefit from sustained Iranian political and material support 66 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 3: and are really the tip of the spear when it 67 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 3: comes to having Iran be able to have its cake, 68 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 3: you need it too, And realistically, here this is Iran 69 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 3: empowering a group that wants to shoot at Americans, but 70 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 3: being able to control the cycle and the tone and 71 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 3: the tenor of the violence at a time of Tehran's 72 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 3: own choosing. So you'll note, you know, the vast majority 73 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:32,039 Speaker 3: of these strikes happened after October seven, precisely because the 74 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 3: Iranians were intent on activating affront the use of military 75 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 3: means towards political ends to generate pressure on America through 76 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 3: sustained mortar, rocket, drone, cruise, missile and even on two 77 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:50,600 Speaker 3: occasions close range ballistic missile attacks on US positions in 78 00:04:50,640 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 3: the heartland of the Middle East to generate pressure on 79 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 3: America for standing with Israel in order to prevent Israel 80 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:59,840 Speaker 3: from being able to accomplish its military goal of the 81 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 3: destruction of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. So this is 82 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 3: a very, very, very multi layered problem we're facing here, 83 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 3: and I find the calls on the fringe left and 84 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 3: fringe right on both sides of the Atlantic, to be 85 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 3: honest with you, to be counterproductive to think that all 86 00:05:15,240 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 3: we have to do to stop these attacks is not 87 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 3: to punch back at the militias or their patron but 88 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,520 Speaker 3: just to force Israel into some kind of a ceasefire situation, 89 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 3: which I think would be counterproductive and would vindicate in 90 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 3: the minds of the worst of the worst actors that 91 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 3: they can have a veto over US foreign policy over 92 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 3: Israeli Foreign Policy. 93 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:37,279 Speaker 1: Secretary of Austin said at a press conference which I 94 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 1: actually listen to quote, we will have a multi tier 95 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: response and we have the ability to respond a number 96 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:48,599 Speaker 1: of times depending on the situation. We look to hold 97 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:51,960 Speaker 1: the people responsible for this accountable, and we also seek 98 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 1: to take away capability as we go forward. 99 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 3: What does that mean? 100 00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:57,560 Speaker 1: What is a multi tier response? 101 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,320 Speaker 3: This is where and there is not much with immense 102 00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 3: respects to the Biden administration, there's not much room for 103 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:08,279 Speaker 3: cautious optimism in the Biden administration almost three years in 104 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 3: being able to do a one to eighty or course 105 00:06:10,440 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 3: correction to their rather problematic foreign policy towards Iran. They're 106 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 3: a desire to disengage from the Middle East, their inability 107 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,599 Speaker 3: to connect the dots between the patron and proxy networks 108 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 3: and one of the most troubled parts of the world. 109 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 3: But there was a little bit of room for optimism 110 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 3: in that element that you just read, which you also 111 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 3: I think mentioned that Biden or Blinken had said as 112 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 3: well about this multi tier, multi domain you know, continued response. 113 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 3: And the reason that gives me a little bit of 114 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 3: cautious optimism is that you have two different sets of voices. 115 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 3: Voiceset one that is saying all we have to do 116 00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:46,080 Speaker 3: is pull the plug and will stop getting hit, you know, 117 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 3: pull the plug with Israelis and will stop getting hit. 118 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:50,880 Speaker 3: And on the other side, you know, we have some folks, 119 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:52,359 Speaker 3: many of our friends and in fact some of my 120 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:56,239 Speaker 3: colleagues calling for a direct, overt retaliation against the government 121 00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 3: of the Islamic Republic on Iranian soil, something we haven't 122 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:02,480 Speaker 3: done technically and would be akin to running a very 123 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 3: public social science experiment as to how would Iran respond. 124 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:08,720 Speaker 3: In light of some of the shortcomings of US foreign 125 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 3: policy in the Middle East recently, there is no straight 126 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 3: line from failing to deter the proxy, whether that's the 127 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:18,480 Speaker 3: militias in Iraq, the Huthi's in Yemen, Lebanese has Belah 128 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:21,560 Speaker 3: in Lebanon, to being able to deter the patron which, 129 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:23,840 Speaker 3: as we saw in the aftermath of the US strike 130 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 3: killing Costum sole Money, was not afraid to launch the 131 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 3: biggest ballistic missile barrage since the end of World War 132 00:07:30,400 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 3: Two against US positions in history. So, if I can 133 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:39,440 Speaker 3: read anything or presume anything in the multi tiered response 134 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 3: we heard from Secretary of Austin, one would hope it 135 00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 3: comes across several different geographies, that it would not just 136 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 3: be limited to Iraq. There's public reporting now that says 137 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 3: the US has chosen targets in Iraq and Syria, that 138 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 3: it would not just be limited to Iraqis or Syrians 139 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 3: or Iran backed militias, but to Iranian officers themselves, ideally 140 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 3: elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. There was just a 141 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 3: recent Reuter story that I don't believe anyone else has confirmed, 142 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 3: because it was an exclusive to them, that Iran was 143 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 3: rotating out or at least pulling out some IRGC officials 144 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 3: from Syria. Given the fact that high ranking folks kept 145 00:08:13,400 --> 00:08:17,040 Speaker 3: getting hit, admittedly or assumedly likely from the Israelis, one 146 00:08:17,040 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 3: would hope that also there would be a cyber element 147 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 3: to this response. There were allegations reported in papers like 148 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 3: The Washington Post and New York Times. Then in the 149 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:28,520 Speaker 3: aftermath of the two Times in twenty nineteen, when the 150 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 3: Trump administration did not use military force to respond to 151 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 3: the downing of its throne in June and the attack 152 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 3: on Appcake oil refinery in Saudi Arabia in September, that 153 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 3: the US instead had opted for a cyber response. So 154 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:46,600 Speaker 3: one would hope that there would be different targets, stronger weapons, bases, personnel, 155 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 3: and also activity in different domains so cyber, and one 156 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,839 Speaker 3: would hope that there would be a sanctions component as well. 157 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 3: This is again hope. We don't have much room for 158 00:08:55,679 --> 00:08:58,440 Speaker 3: hope in the way the administration has conducted Middle East 159 00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 3: policy in the past, perhaps this could be a little 160 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 3: bit of a sign of maturity that the past things 161 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 3: we've done in response to the past one hundred and 162 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 3: sixty five odd strikes was insufficient to deter I. 163 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 1: Found it curious. Secretary Austin said that we didn't actually 164 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:18,959 Speaker 1: know whether or not Tehran understood about the specific drone 165 00:09:19,000 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 1: strike on Sunday, but he then went on to say, quote, 166 00:09:22,160 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 1: it did not matter, since we do know that Iran 167 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:28,080 Speaker 1: sponsors these groups, and funds these groups, and in some 168 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:30,840 Speaker 1: cases trains these groups. And I think we've now been 169 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 1: told that the wreckage has been examined and we are 170 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:37,680 Speaker 1: convinced that the drone was actually built in Iran. If 171 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:42,160 Speaker 1: that's all true, why does the administration, through various spokespersons, 172 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:45,720 Speaker 1: say again and again we are not at war with Iran, 173 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: since obviously, through their epoxies, Iran is at war with us. 174 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:55,120 Speaker 3: And indeed, anyone who takes a slightly wider or longer 175 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 3: view of this national security challenge knows that Iran was 176 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,320 Speaker 3: at war with Us in one shape or another, in 177 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,520 Speaker 3: one form or another, ever since the Islamic revolution achieved 178 00:10:04,600 --> 00:10:07,560 Speaker 3: victory in nineteen seventy nine and really took that proud 179 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 3: nation Iran hostage. In many ways, Iran has continued this 180 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:15,320 Speaker 3: fight with US under the revolutionary Islamist government, in the 181 00:10:15,440 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 3: rhetorical world, in the political world, in the economic world, 182 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,600 Speaker 3: in the military world, in the cyber world, in the 183 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 3: finance slash illicit finance world. 184 00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:26,680 Speaker 2: If there is a domain, you can almost bet. 185 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:30,000 Speaker 3: Your bottom dollar or bottom line that the Iranians are 186 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 3: on one hundred and eighty degrees opposite of an issue 187 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 3: that the Americans are on. So if we're for freedom 188 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 3: of the seas, therefore harassment in the seas, and so 189 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 3: on and so forth. If we've tried to build up 190 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,679 Speaker 3: Iraq in the past to become a stronger, more stable, 191 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 3: more prosperous country, the Iranians having the business of destroying 192 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 3: those institutions. There are so few areas where under the 193 00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,559 Speaker 3: auspices of the Islamic Republic, the US and Iran are 194 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 3: not at odds, And I think it's time to call 195 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 3: a spade a spade. This remains the world's formal state 196 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 3: sponsor of terrorism. We think so far out that in 197 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 3: lieu of this proxy network that they have either created 198 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 3: or co opted and sustained control over through material support, 199 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 3: through provision of weapons and training and funding. That Iran 200 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 3: is not involved in these attacks, then there is a 201 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 3: bridge I'd like to sell you after this phone call 202 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 3: or after this podcast, Because indeed, the fact that we 203 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 3: cannot find a signal intercept, for instance, from the Supreme 204 00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 3: Leader of Iran's office to the head of one of 205 00:11:26,920 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 3: these militias, does not mean that Iran was not behind 206 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:33,120 Speaker 3: the attack. In many ways, the absence of that directive 207 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:37,199 Speaker 3: is the success of the proxy network in action. Iran 208 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:39,840 Speaker 3: need not call and turn on and turn off the 209 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:44,079 Speaker 3: spigot like this, because by empowering local actors who share 210 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 3: similar views, they get to control the cycle of violence anyway, 211 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 3: because they have someone else who will fire weapons and 212 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 3: die on their behalf. 213 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 1: Both Obama and Biden seem to have this curious view 214 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:05,840 Speaker 1: that they can somehow find a moderate Iranian regime around 215 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: which they can build an effective Middle Eastern policy. Why 216 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 1: do you think they're so pro Ranium? 217 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:14,240 Speaker 3: It's an excellent question, And again, if we zoom out 218 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:17,320 Speaker 3: the context, this is a trap, for lack of a 219 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 3: better word, that many US officials have fallen, and if 220 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,319 Speaker 3: we Broughten out the context, one need only remember Iran 221 00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 3: contra during the Reagan administration, the fact that the Clinton administration, 222 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:31,480 Speaker 3: for instance, did not kinetically respond to the Iranian inspired 223 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 3: attack on Hobar Towers, killing nineteen service persons. There's a 224 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 3: whole string of things that come with believing that there 225 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 3: are genuine moderates, not just in Iran, the country, which 226 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:44,400 Speaker 3: there are more than genuine moderates. We have genuine allies 227 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:47,800 Speaker 3: in the Iranian people. But this over inflection of the 228 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 3: Iranian people onto the government. You know, you could not 229 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:52,840 Speaker 3: find two more things at odds than the people or 230 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 3: the population of Iran and the government of the Islamic Republic, 231 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 3: which is brutally repressed the aspirations of these people. But 232 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 3: to think that there are factions or cleavages within a 233 00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:06,400 Speaker 3: constantly narrowing ever since it's been around since nineteen seventy 234 00:13:06,480 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 3: nine ultra hardline majority at the helm of this regime 235 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 3: is indeed a fiction. And it's a fiction that occasionally 236 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 3: the regime will trot out folks like former Iranian Foreign 237 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 3: Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif to try to take advantage of 238 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 3: the fact that he speaks great English and is affable 239 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 3: with Western diplomats, and to lure Western politicians into a 240 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:30,440 Speaker 3: false sense of security and blur the lines between the 241 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,679 Speaker 3: nation of Iran and the government of the Islamic Republic 242 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 3: of Iran, and through that tempt Western and particularly even 243 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 3: American policymakers into thinking that there is a moderate and 244 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 3: all you have to do is peel back the pressure 245 00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 3: and you'll empower that moderate. 246 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:05,640 Speaker 1: I had a conversation with the Secretary Bob Gates one 247 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 1: time when he was Secretary of Defense. He said he 248 00:14:09,320 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 1: had been the deputy to Brazinski going to Algiers to 249 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: meet with the original Iranian revolutionary leadership who Jimmy Carter 250 00:14:20,080 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: was trying to find a way to work with. And 251 00:14:22,800 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 1: they said, look, we can honor our military contracts and 252 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 1: give you the things you need for the f fourteens. 253 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:31,520 Speaker 1: We can provide economic aid, and they went through a 254 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 1: whole list. And the guy sat there and looked at 255 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 1: them and said, we want the Shaw. We have to 256 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 1: have the Shaw so we can try him and execute him. 257 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:43,000 Speaker 1: And they said, well, I mean, we can't give you 258 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: the Shaw. They would violate every sense of hospitality and decency. 259 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 1: And they went back through all the things they could do, 260 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: and when they had done, the Iranian said, you don't understand. 261 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 1: We don't want any of those things. We want the 262 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: Shaw And he said a couple days later they see 263 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: he's the American embassy illegally of course, and kept the 264 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 1: hostages for four hundred and forty four days. Engaged. Look 265 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: to me, said, anytime I hear somebody talk about moderates 266 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 1: in the Iranian dictatorship, I remember those meetings and think, 267 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 1: I don't think so. I don't think there's a single 268 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 1: moderate in that group. I thought it was a very 269 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:20,120 Speaker 1: compelling story. 270 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 3: He was quite wise to mention that, and that's something 271 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 3: that one would hope would be a sticky reputation in 272 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 3: the minds of American policymakers who've seen that through. Another 273 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:32,560 Speaker 3: correllary to that, to the story I saw in a 274 00:15:32,600 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 3: documentary was, you know, former Deputy Secretary of State. I 275 00:15:36,040 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 3: think he later on he became Secretary of State, Warren Christopher. 276 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 3: And this was after they took the hostages. And this 277 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:44,360 Speaker 3: kind of connects to what I was saying about the 278 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 3: affableness of some of these folks, these diplomats. There was 279 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 3: one of these high ranking Iranians family wise, related to 280 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,800 Speaker 3: the Homenes for lack of a better word, related to 281 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 3: the founding father of the Islamic Revolution. And he met 282 00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:01,800 Speaker 3: Warren Christopher, I think in West Germany's somewhere, And Warren 283 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:04,320 Speaker 3: Christopher said this in a documentary. He said he was 284 00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 3: shocked when he saw him because he was expecting some 285 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 3: you know, hostage taking brigand and he saw this gentleman 286 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 3: in a three piece suit. And this is part of 287 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 3: the Christopher narrative. He says he was holding his cigarette. 288 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:18,000 Speaker 3: This Iranian individual, I think his name was Sawdek Tabatabay, 289 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,440 Speaker 3: he was holding his cigarette like the old school Hollywood 290 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 3: movie stars, you know, with three fingers, and that this 291 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 3: just kind of blew this cultural context. So even if 292 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 3: someone isn't as grass as that form a negotiator and 293 00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:35,440 Speaker 3: they have this veneer, unfortunately, I think Western diplomats have 294 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 3: fallen for it. 295 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 2: And I think that speaks volumes. 296 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 1: And when you had recently the Ayatola Hamoni go on 297 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 1: national television and say, when we say death to Israel 298 00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 1: and death to America, these are not slogans, this is 299 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 1: our policy. How do you think people like Obama and 300 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: Biden take that and somehow in their head translated into 301 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: an open for a reasonable relationship. 302 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,679 Speaker 3: There are some folks you mentioned FDD have had the 303 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 3: pleasure of being with FDD. You know, next week will 304 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:10,320 Speaker 3: be eleven years now covering the entirety, the breadth and 305 00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,879 Speaker 3: depth of the Iran problem. And you've seen rises and 306 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 3: ebbs and flows in the willingness of some folks in 307 00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:19,040 Speaker 3: Washington to believe exactly that narrative, to bleep exacuately what 308 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:23,680 Speaker 3: you said. And in some cases you'll hear folks say no, no, no, 309 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:26,240 Speaker 3: they don't believe this. This is domestic politics, This is 310 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 3: domestic consumption, to which I, as an Iranian American, will say, 311 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,399 Speaker 3: the vast majory of the population doesn't believe this stuff anyway, 312 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:35,520 Speaker 3: So at most it's for inter elite consumption. But who 313 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 3: does Kaminae, the Supreme Leader of Iran, a title meant 314 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 3: to be taken very literally, feel that he has to 315 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 3: signal to These are genuine revolutionaries who believe what they say. 316 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 3: And I think some point after the Ukraine invasion in 317 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 3: February twenty twenty two by Russia, I actually wrote a 318 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:54,919 Speaker 3: piece for The Atlantic linking the folly of not taking 319 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:58,880 Speaker 3: Putin's word seriously to not taking Kamene's words seriously. And 320 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:01,880 Speaker 3: unfortunately that was written well before October seven, but only 321 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:05,280 Speaker 3: proved to be true in the post October seven Middle East, where. 322 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 2: When they say thatth Israel they mean it. 323 00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 3: So this constant downgrading of the adversary, say no, no, no, 324 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:13,200 Speaker 3: he didn't really mean that that. This is driven by 325 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:17,919 Speaker 3: some exogenous force that they feel the need to signal to, 326 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 3: is in fact actually belittling the adversary, is in fact 327 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:25,120 Speaker 3: denuding the adversary of agency. I don't know where else 328 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:28,160 Speaker 3: kind of philosophically or intellectually it comes from. But this 329 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 3: constant need to define it downward is unhelpful for US 330 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 3: foreign policy. And you can see the string of it 331 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 3: being unhelpful from Romani to Putin, to Romenae and to 332 00:18:42,840 --> 00:18:43,439 Speaker 3: many others. 333 00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 1: From your perspective, what should they a next administration do 334 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 1: to sort of reset the stage. 335 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 3: Well, it depends a great deal on the ways, the 336 00:18:55,760 --> 00:18:58,679 Speaker 3: means and the ends that the next administration wants to 337 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,280 Speaker 3: go for. I leave it at this time. There is 338 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 3: no nuclear deal in the offing. Hypothetically, if it's a 339 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 3: Biden two point zero administration. Unfortunately, I do believe that 340 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:11,600 Speaker 3: they will continue to pull punches. They will continue to 341 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 3: sacrifice the defense of the national interest for the resurrection 342 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:17,480 Speaker 3: of a nuclear deal in some form or another. Because 343 00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:21,679 Speaker 3: A are the first most important P politics. This fits 344 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 3: in with the political legacy of the Obama era, and 345 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:26,879 Speaker 3: you have a similar group of personnel at the helm. Again, 346 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 3: B for policy purposes, because many of these folks want 347 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,360 Speaker 3: to leave the Middle East because they think you don't 348 00:19:32,400 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 3: need to deal with the Iranian problem, you just have 349 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,199 Speaker 3: to manage it a nuclear deal that buys time, and 350 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:40,680 Speaker 3: literally they seem content with giving the world's foremost state 351 00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 3: sponsor of terrorism sanctions relief. They feel that it's okay 352 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 3: to engage in this kind of policy of bribery or 353 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 3: kick the can down the road, when in reality they're 354 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 3: just kicking the can at the wall and it's going 355 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:52,720 Speaker 3: to come barreling back at the US any day now. 356 00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:55,679 Speaker 3: And Third, philosophically, again, they don't believe this is a 357 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:56,480 Speaker 3: solving problem. 358 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 2: This is a management problem. 359 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 3: And if that view of these three p's is congealed 360 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:05,160 Speaker 3: in the next Bided administration, nothing about what I say 361 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:08,879 Speaker 3: about maximum pressure against the regime in Iran, and maximum 362 00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 3: support for the people of Iran will really be able 363 00:20:12,040 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 3: to be enacted. Conversely, if there is a genuine desire 364 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 3: to run the clock, to turn back the page, and 365 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:25,320 Speaker 3: to resurrect the Trump administration's successful maximum pressure campaign, then 366 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,920 Speaker 3: we stand a chance as to influencing the calculus in Tehran, 367 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 3: there are three balances we have to influence. There is 368 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 3: the balance of capability, which we already have vastly skewed 369 00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 3: in our favor. But then there's the balance of interest 370 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,879 Speaker 3: and the balance of resolve. It's debatable right now that 371 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,879 Speaker 3: the Iranians actually believe the defense of our positions in 372 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 3: the Heartland and Middle East is an interest of ours, 373 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:52,360 Speaker 3: given how sparsely and sporadically we've defended that. 374 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 2: And then there's the. 375 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:57,000 Speaker 3: Balance of resolve, which Iranians believe, due to a series 376 00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 3: of bipartisan unfortunately foreign policy mistake, they believe that they 377 00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 3: have the balance in their favor, and it will take 378 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,160 Speaker 3: time for the next president to restore to terms economically 379 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,240 Speaker 3: or militarily. But there were some major wins in the 380 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:15,120 Speaker 3: past administration that were just watered down due to domestic 381 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:16,159 Speaker 3: political purposes. 382 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 2: One on the. 383 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 3: Economic front, I mentioned for you. Economically, the Trump administration 384 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 3: used unilateral economic sanctions, and even though everyone was crying 385 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:27,280 Speaker 3: that this is going to break the global order and 386 00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 3: that this will not work, within about a year and 387 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:34,160 Speaker 3: a half to two years time, the Trump administration impacted 388 00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 3: the Iranian economy, so did more macroeconomic damage and one 389 00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:41,640 Speaker 3: and a half to two years, when you look at inflation, 390 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:44,199 Speaker 3: when you look at the presence of stagflation, when you 391 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,359 Speaker 3: look at the value of the real relative to the 392 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:48,880 Speaker 3: US dollar on the black market, when you look at 393 00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 3: oil exports, or when you look at a whole other 394 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:55,439 Speaker 3: bunch of macroeconomic indicators, US unilateral sanctions in a shorter 395 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 3: time were more powerful than multilateral sanctions over a day, 396 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 3: and that was. 397 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:02,400 Speaker 2: A huge victory. 398 00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 3: And multiple times the IRUNI officials said that the weight 399 00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 3: of these penalties was of greater weight than the military 400 00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 3: pressure they felt during the Iran Iraq war. And this 401 00:22:14,320 --> 00:22:18,119 Speaker 3: was a leverage that the administration currently has junked, given 402 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:20,879 Speaker 3: the fact that it has not been actively enforcing these penalties. 403 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:23,360 Speaker 2: So that's the baseline policy. 404 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 1: They've actually done. The know the direction, I mean, when 405 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:29,240 Speaker 1: Obama sent a billion dollars in cash, which I understand 406 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,479 Speaker 1: could not be US dollars said to be Swiss, Franks 407 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:37,600 Speaker 1: and Euros. I just thought, there's something so mindlessly disconnected 408 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:42,680 Speaker 1: between the behavior of the dictatorship and the interpretations in 409 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 1: the White House and the State Department that it's almost unimaginable. 410 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:51,439 Speaker 3: And when the adversary sees that exactly this disconnect, it 411 00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 3: reminds me of the title of the book of I 412 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:58,359 Speaker 3: think former NSA Chief General Michael Hayden. He wrote a 413 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,840 Speaker 3: book called playing to the Edge. When there's such a chasm, 414 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,399 Speaker 3: the adversary will play to the edge and extract as 415 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:08,199 Speaker 3: much as possible, and that cast transfer literally palettes of 416 00:23:08,280 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 3: cash is what you get as the world's foremost state 417 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 3: sponsor of terrorism when you play to the edge against 418 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:17,560 Speaker 3: an administration that misunderstands you and unfortunately pulls punches at the 419 00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 3: wrong time. 420 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: Do you think that we should actually have a strategy 421 00:23:22,320 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 1: of trying to empower the Iranian people in trying to 422 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 1: encourage maximum domestic unrest. 423 00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 2: I absolutely do. And the good news is that we 424 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:33,720 Speaker 2: need not be the. 425 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 3: Ones to encourage maximum domestic unrest because there have been 426 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,160 Speaker 3: a boom and bus cycle of protests in that country, 427 00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:44,159 Speaker 3: and particularly concurrent with a period of maximum economic pressure 428 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 3: that many thought years ago in Washington that would have 429 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,719 Speaker 3: been the kiss of death for those protests. That when 430 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 3: the Trump administration vigorously stood with the Iranian people, people 431 00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 3: said that this would have been the kiss of death. 432 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,360 Speaker 3: But actually you had Iranians chanting in twenty eighteen outside 433 00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:03,919 Speaker 3: the parliament Doshemadame Mojamin jos do rumighin omricost, which is 434 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 3: our enemies are here. They lie when they say it's America. 435 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,760 Speaker 3: They chastise both sides of the spectrum, quote unquote, both 436 00:24:10,760 --> 00:24:13,280 Speaker 3: sides of the spectrum. The reformists and the hardliners are 437 00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:17,399 Speaker 3: the principalists in Iran. When they said reformist principalist, the 438 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,199 Speaker 3: jig is up. The fact that the US broke the 439 00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 3: sacred cow of actually being able to stand with the 440 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:26,960 Speaker 3: Iranian people was huge. And in a future administration, if 441 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 3: one can marry that foreign pressure and support for the grassroots, 442 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,879 Speaker 3: you will have a really successful, powerful pincer. And I 443 00:24:34,880 --> 00:24:37,440 Speaker 3: mean the regime will try to wrestle away this princer, 444 00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 3: and it will try to do things to divert and 445 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 3: throw off the US, but just kind of like asphyxiation, 446 00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,359 Speaker 3: the more successful or the more kind of closer it 447 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,199 Speaker 3: gets to finishing off an adversary, the more violent the 448 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,119 Speaker 3: throes of the adversary will be. The US needs to 449 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,639 Speaker 3: prepare for this now, or folks who are in a 450 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 3: position to be able to implement maximum pressure and maximum 451 00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 3: support need to be thinking through the scenarios now. 452 00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 1: Well along that line, the Israelis have been pretty adamant 453 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:09,119 Speaker 1: that they will not tolerate an Iranian nuclear weapon, although 454 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,640 Speaker 1: you could make the argument that they may have four 455 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:15,200 Speaker 1: or five already. What do you think Israel's options are 456 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:16,359 Speaker 1: in this kind of a setting. 457 00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 3: It also depends a great deal on the risks tolerance 458 00:25:20,160 --> 00:25:23,800 Speaker 3: of the Israeli government right now. You see, for instance, 459 00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 3: there's a lot of talk about the need to go 460 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 3: after Lebanese Hezbela, which is to Israel's north, even though 461 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 3: the threat the war the October seven attack came from 462 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,160 Speaker 3: Israel south came in Gaza. You have over one hundred 463 00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,840 Speaker 3: thousand internally displaced people in Israel right now. They can't 464 00:25:36,880 --> 00:25:38,840 Speaker 3: go back to their homes in the north. Hezebel is 465 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:42,440 Speaker 3: a much much, much more potent adversary than Maas in Gaza. 466 00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,159 Speaker 3: So I think the thinking in Israel, and I wouldn't 467 00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 3: want to speak on their behalf is that if there 468 00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,359 Speaker 3: ever was going to be something against the regime, and 469 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 3: in particular any kind of the ability to pose even 470 00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 3: a credible military threat to the nuclear and military installations, 471 00:25:56,920 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 3: they would first have to deal with the knife that 472 00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 3: the Iranians have at their neck, and then over the 473 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,640 Speaker 3: course of the past decade, have been sharpening against their neck, 474 00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 3: and that is the Precision Guided Munitions Project, the PGM 475 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 3: project for short, that Iran has with Hesbeola and Lebanon, 476 00:26:12,320 --> 00:26:16,960 Speaker 3: where they've taken the quantitative advantage that exists on Israel's 477 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 3: northern border, the one hundred and fifty thousand to two 478 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 3: hundred thousand mortars, rockets and missiles and move them more 479 00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,200 Speaker 3: into the world of missiles. So a rocket versus missile. 480 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,800 Speaker 3: A rocket, just for the audience, is a unguided munition. 481 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 3: A missile has a guidance system, and if you can 482 00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:34,879 Speaker 3: kind of marry these in volleys, you can try to 483 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,120 Speaker 3: surpass or break through the iron dome. And the Iranians 484 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,600 Speaker 3: understand this because as early as the twenty twenty one war, 485 00:26:40,960 --> 00:26:43,440 Speaker 3: the Eleven Day War in May between Israel and Hamas 486 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 3: and Gaza. There was reporting by the IRGC almost braggedocious 487 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:52,040 Speaker 3: reporting that said, whether the Israelis intercept or not, they lose. 488 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:55,679 Speaker 3: So they are understanding the economics of these interceptors, and 489 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 3: we're seeing those same economics now impacting the US. At 490 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:01,560 Speaker 3: what bases do we have sea rams at? What bases 491 00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:04,120 Speaker 3: do we have patriots at? What bases do we have thads? 492 00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:07,600 Speaker 3: What kind of anti ship anti missile destroyers do we 493 00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:09,399 Speaker 3: have in the Persian Gulf? What kind do we have 494 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 3: in the Red Sea? How interoperable are they with other elements, 495 00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:16,280 Speaker 3: other armies that can provide greater coverage to track, detect 496 00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 3: and destroy what Iran has, which is the largest ballistic 497 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,280 Speaker 3: missile arsenal in the Middle East. These things have to 498 00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,879 Speaker 3: be dealt with if you're going to pose a credible 499 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,119 Speaker 3: military threat to the regime's crown jewel, which is the 500 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,399 Speaker 3: nuclear program. And in this sense, unfortunately, I'll say the 501 00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:34,120 Speaker 3: quiet part out loud. I think the Israelies have been 502 00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 3: conventionally deterred by the Iranians, because had they not have been, 503 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 3: I think you would have seen something a la Osirak 504 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,560 Speaker 3: nineteen eighty one or a la Al Kibar two thousand 505 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,840 Speaker 3: and seven, which was kind of the raids on the 506 00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 3: facility in Iraq and in Syria by the Israeli Air 507 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:53,000 Speaker 3: Force to take out what was likely going to be 508 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:57,119 Speaker 3: a nuclear capability, I mean Iran's terrain. The disbursement, the 509 00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 3: hardening is much more complex. In many different reports about 510 00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 3: war games and assessments, people talk about the Americans needing 511 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,679 Speaker 3: to join in, and I think the Iranians understand that, 512 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:09,720 Speaker 3: which is why they are still whether they're against Israel 513 00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:13,639 Speaker 3: or America, content on playing to the edge, and one 514 00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 3: wonders what the bounce back will be in these really 515 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:20,720 Speaker 3: national security establishment post October seven planning post Kaza about 516 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 3: how to deal with this. 517 00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,120 Speaker 1: Israelis then, in a sense have to finish up Gaza 518 00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 1: so that they can shift and then contemplate whether or 519 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:30,680 Speaker 1: not they want to try to take out hisbe Lah, 520 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,480 Speaker 1: which should be a much bigger project than Hamas. 521 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,240 Speaker 2: Absolutely, and the question is what is the staying power? 522 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:38,280 Speaker 2: What do they need? 523 00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 3: Also, again, what will the population support and what is 524 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:45,000 Speaker 3: the legal context for this? All these are things I'm 525 00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 3: sure Israelis are thinking through at the moment, but all 526 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:52,240 Speaker 3: these are things that will involve with respect in my 527 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 3: view a different level of Iranian involvement that we've seen 528 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,920 Speaker 3: at present right now is Iran is trying to escalate, 529 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:01,560 Speaker 3: but also it is trying to get out of the 530 00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 3: involvement or the blame game. That's why you have these 531 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:07,280 Speaker 3: two fronts, the Yemen Front and the Iraq Syria Front 532 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:10,440 Speaker 3: coming online to generate the pressure, so Iran need not 533 00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 3: generate the pressure. This axis of resistance, these independent proxies 534 00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 3: and partners and allies Iran has created or co opted 535 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 3: are now more interoperable. They're not perfectly interoperable, but they're 536 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,680 Speaker 3: trying to bail each other out, so the regime need 537 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:25,200 Speaker 3: not have to. 538 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,560 Speaker 2: But for a group like Hesbelah. 539 00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 3: Which defends Iran's crown jewel by posing a threat to 540 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 3: Israelis with that large Arsenal that we just spoke about, 541 00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:36,480 Speaker 3: I do fear that the regime in Tehran might become 542 00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:38,760 Speaker 3: more directly involved. And so one thing these rallies are 543 00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:40,760 Speaker 3: also going to have to game out is to what 544 00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:44,080 Speaker 3: degree of Iranian connectivity can they handle and if the 545 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:46,800 Speaker 3: Runian threat comes online directly from the homeland to bail 546 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:50,040 Speaker 3: out Hesbela, which has a qualitatively different meaning for the 547 00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:52,760 Speaker 3: regime in Tehran than Hamas does in Gaza. 548 00:29:53,080 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 1: What then, with all of that going on, why would 549 00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 1: President Biden issue an executive order Thursday aiming to punish 550 00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:23,480 Speaker 1: Israeli settlers who've been attacking Palestinians in the West Bank. 551 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,400 Speaker 3: By working on the Iran issue, you get to touch 552 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 3: some third rails in Washington. I think you know better 553 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 3: than I, sir. But if there ever was a fourth rail, 554 00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:32,800 Speaker 3: I would say it'd be the Israeli Palestinian stuff. It 555 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 3: makes my job look like a piece of cake if 556 00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 3: I had to guess here. This is Biden trying to 557 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 3: pander to a progressive left flank that you've seen lots 558 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:44,440 Speaker 3: of different protests across different cities in America on about 559 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 3: calling for a cease fire and even some very nasty 560 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,240 Speaker 3: things about basically doing incitement to violence and genocide in 561 00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:52,480 Speaker 3: the post October seventh space from protesters. 562 00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,520 Speaker 2: And I think this is part of Biden's balance strategy. 563 00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,240 Speaker 3: You know, you've had a whole series of leaks from 564 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,800 Speaker 3: the White House about different phases of Israel's military operation 565 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 3: in Gaza that is designed, I think to placate those folks. 566 00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 3: This too, in my view, I think is designed to 567 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:08,560 Speaker 3: placate those folks. 568 00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:11,240 Speaker 1: So it's really about domestic politics. 569 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,360 Speaker 2: And twenty twenty four I think so one other. 570 00:31:14,240 --> 00:31:17,640 Speaker 1: Front, which is this whole thing with the Houthies, when 571 00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 1: we began bombing them recently. I went back into a 572 00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 1: tiny bit of research, and if I understand it correctly, 573 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:29,680 Speaker 1: between twenty fourteen in about twenty twenty, the Saudi's and 574 00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:33,920 Speaker 1: the UAE bomb the Houthies about twenty five thousand times. 575 00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,760 Speaker 1: Now it raises the question, why do we think that 576 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:43,240 Speaker 1: US bombing them will somehow be a major deterrence as 577 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,240 Speaker 1: opposed to just something they endure. Well, they keep doing 578 00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:47,800 Speaker 1: what they want to know. 579 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:51,480 Speaker 3: This reminds me of this quote by a very famous 580 00:31:51,520 --> 00:31:55,200 Speaker 3: political scientist, Tom Schelling when they're talking about coercion and 581 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 3: punishment and escalation. I'm going to butcher the line, but 582 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 3: I'm going to paraphrase it from memory, where he's talking about, 583 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,920 Speaker 3: you know, escalation versus absorption, and they're talking about how 584 00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 3: to signal resolve. And I think the line he uses 585 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 3: is sometimes the cold blooded absorption of punishment is just 586 00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,600 Speaker 3: as impressive as the infliction of it. And I think 587 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,040 Speaker 3: what the Houthis have tried to garner both on the 588 00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,680 Speaker 3: Arab Street and both on terms of Iran's axis of 589 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 3: resistance is that they have withstood that. That's kind of 590 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,600 Speaker 3: like a status dividend for them. The one area I 591 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 3: would draw a little bit of a sharper line on 592 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,480 Speaker 3: between the Saudi led operation and that which the US 593 00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 3: and the UK and hopefully others could do is just better. 594 00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:37,360 Speaker 2: Isr better targeting. 595 00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 3: An empirical example of that, when the twenty fifteen war began, 596 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 3: the Saudis had an operation called Decisive Storm that was 597 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,840 Speaker 3: the pushback against the Houthis and Yemen. Prior to that, 598 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:52,840 Speaker 3: they launched an aerial campaign to target the long range 599 00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:57,080 Speaker 3: strike capabilities, so the ballistic missiles that the predecessor regime 600 00:32:57,160 --> 00:33:00,480 Speaker 3: that the Huthis had overrun had had, and some of 601 00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:03,520 Speaker 3: those military folks affected to the Houthis, and the Houthis 602 00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:05,959 Speaker 3: got access to some of those weapons depots and storage 603 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,120 Speaker 3: facilities and whatnot and became a heck of a lot 604 00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:13,480 Speaker 3: more stronger. And in those arsenals was a Russian single stage, 605 00:33:13,680 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 3: solid propellant short range ballistic missile called the Tachka. 606 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:20,600 Speaker 2: This is twenty fifteen. We have seen military parades. 607 00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,880 Speaker 3: In twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three in Sana, 608 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 3: in the capitol of Vmen, put on by the Houthis 609 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:29,400 Speaker 3: that still feature the Tachka, meaning a Russian weapon that 610 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:34,560 Speaker 3: the predecessor regime in Yemen had received, had managed to 611 00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:38,040 Speaker 3: survive all of those bombings you mentioned. So it wasn't 612 00:33:38,120 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 3: just that the arsenal has grown because the Iranians have 613 00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:42,360 Speaker 3: given the Houthis in Yemen. 614 00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:43,960 Speaker 2: And this is a point of contention. 615 00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:46,720 Speaker 3: I can't stress enough for the audience, and unfortunately official 616 00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,400 Speaker 3: Washington has not woken up to this. The Huthis in 617 00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:53,040 Speaker 3: Yemen possessed the most advanced long range strike capabilities out 618 00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:56,000 Speaker 3: of any Iranian proxy. They are the only ones with 619 00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:59,360 Speaker 3: medium range ballistic missiles. They are the only ones who 620 00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:02,480 Speaker 3: haven't have used anti ship ballistic missiles. They are the 621 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:05,640 Speaker 3: first ones to have used land attack cruise missiles. This 622 00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,720 Speaker 3: is a game changer kind of weaponry that the Houthis 623 00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:10,680 Speaker 3: in Yemen have and that's essentially brought to you by 624 00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:13,520 Speaker 3: the Islamic Republic. Everon, I mean, HESBLA doesn't even have 625 00:34:13,640 --> 00:34:15,680 Speaker 3: all this stuff. There may be a debate as to 626 00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,680 Speaker 3: do they need it or not, but nonetheless, the Houthis 627 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:20,880 Speaker 3: were that good at being able to move this stuff around. 628 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,880 Speaker 3: I think with some of the US and UK strikes, 629 00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,120 Speaker 3: when I say we have better ISR, we're not just 630 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:29,120 Speaker 3: going after depots like the Saudi's were, and the presence 631 00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,320 Speaker 3: of the Tachka tells you they weren't that good of that. Anyway, 632 00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:36,320 Speaker 3: we are able to detect weapons being put onto rail launchers, 633 00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:38,480 Speaker 3: which means that we have more kind of eyes and 634 00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:40,759 Speaker 3: ears on the ground. This is not a solution to 635 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:42,920 Speaker 3: the problem, but in an election year, I don't think 636 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 3: the vided administration is too keen on trying to find 637 00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,560 Speaker 3: a way to solve this problem. But so long as 638 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:50,040 Speaker 3: we just think we can do pinprick strikes, we'll be 639 00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,840 Speaker 3: replicating the problem that we had in Iraq and Syria, 640 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,280 Speaker 3: which is we failed to restore to terrence against a proxy. 641 00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,280 Speaker 3: Oh and by the way, we have a supply side problem, 642 00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:01,040 Speaker 3: because it's not just the Hoothy's five hiring them and 643 00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 3: getting it intercepted, or the who He's preparing them for 644 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,560 Speaker 3: launch and getting them struck on the launchers, but it's 645 00:35:07,600 --> 00:35:10,840 Speaker 3: the Islamic Republic of run continues to send things that 646 00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:14,200 Speaker 3: send Common Task Force one fifty three. Fortunately are intercepting 647 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:16,280 Speaker 3: like missile and rocket components. 648 00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:21,279 Speaker 1: The change rate financially is against us. We're using very 649 00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:25,720 Speaker 1: sophisticated weapons to take down much less expensive weapons. 650 00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,800 Speaker 3: Absolutely, and that was the philosophy that the Iranians understood 651 00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,319 Speaker 3: in the twenty twenty one war, and they're intent on 652 00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,920 Speaker 3: playing that up. So even if that they lose something, 653 00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:38,279 Speaker 3: they lose the projectile we fire an interceptor. They know 654 00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:41,680 Speaker 3: that our interceptor costs more than their projectile. So they're 655 00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:44,279 Speaker 3: also fighting a financial war against us. And then there's 656 00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,120 Speaker 3: also a political war, because we have to have the 657 00:35:46,160 --> 00:35:48,960 Speaker 3: authorities and the will and the capability to stay in 658 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,600 Speaker 3: the region to engage in these kind of interceptions, or 659 00:35:51,680 --> 00:35:53,759 Speaker 3: to train up local forces and make sure they have 660 00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:56,799 Speaker 3: the right tech to track and detect and destroy these 661 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,920 Speaker 3: kind of things. It's a very complex and expensive arche 662 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:03,320 Speaker 3: texture to maintain, and this is the low footprint side. 663 00:36:03,400 --> 00:36:05,319 Speaker 3: The high footprint side is taking the fight to the 664 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:09,759 Speaker 3: adversary and moving away from deterrence by denial, which is 665 00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:13,239 Speaker 3: what this architecture does. To terrence by punishment, to going 666 00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,480 Speaker 3: after hoothy leaders, to going after weapons depots, to striking 667 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:19,720 Speaker 3: the facilities that engage in the transfers, all of that stuff. 668 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:23,080 Speaker 1: But aren't we faced with a reality that if we 669 00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:27,720 Speaker 1: are going to continue what is a very long tradition 670 00:36:27,920 --> 00:36:32,000 Speaker 1: now of keeping freedom of the seas, we're going to 671 00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:34,759 Speaker 1: have to defeat the Hoothies absolutely. 672 00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,880 Speaker 3: I think the question is what does defeat look like 673 00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,680 Speaker 3: and at what price? I think at most the Biden 674 00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:44,279 Speaker 3: administration is comfortable with a few of these sporadic strikes. 675 00:36:44,000 --> 00:36:45,719 Speaker 1: But they will have no effect. 676 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:46,880 Speaker 2: That's what it seems like. 677 00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,719 Speaker 3: And I think that's why the Houthies, despite suffering the strikes, 678 00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:55,759 Speaker 3: almost always instantaneously fire something else to signal, not even 679 00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:57,440 Speaker 3: just to prove, but to signal that they are not 680 00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:02,240 Speaker 3: deterred to drown out our military strike with their military response, 681 00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:05,560 Speaker 3: even though we have superior firepower. They show the will, 682 00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,400 Speaker 3: the staying power. And that's why it gets to the 683 00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,880 Speaker 3: balance of interest. If this really is an interest, then 684 00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:11,719 Speaker 3: we have to defend it, and then we have to 685 00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:15,480 Speaker 3: move the fight just from the passive targeting of installations 686 00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:18,840 Speaker 3: to the targeting of personnel. And in that vein, the 687 00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:23,439 Speaker 3: administration just course corrected, but not even fully, by redesignating 688 00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,799 Speaker 3: the Houthis as especially designated global terrorist Group. I mean, 689 00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:28,920 Speaker 3: I think they should have done the FTO, which is 690 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:31,239 Speaker 3: the authority of the Trump administration when after the hooth 691 00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:33,439 Speaker 3: he's under But again this is three years too late. 692 00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:37,960 Speaker 3: In that time that the Houthis were off the terrorists list, 693 00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:39,960 Speaker 3: and later on you had a cease fire in twenty 694 00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:41,919 Speaker 3: twenty two extended into twenty twenty three. 695 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,759 Speaker 2: It was during that time that the Houthis received and 696 00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:49,479 Speaker 2: paraded and unveiled some of those most damning long range 697 00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:52,720 Speaker 2: strike capabilities that we saw them first fire towards Israel 698 00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,399 Speaker 2: and then later towards international shipping. So a lot can 699 00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,880 Speaker 2: happen when you engage in an own goal, and I 700 00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:01,239 Speaker 2: think the delisting and taking the eyes off the ball 701 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,839 Speaker 2: and the disconnecting the dots between patron and proxy continues 702 00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:06,040 Speaker 2: to come back and bite us. 703 00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:10,720 Speaker 1: It seems to me that the question becomes who intimidates 704 00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:15,400 Speaker 1: who that if we're not careful, we could literally be 705 00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:19,479 Speaker 1: intimidated out of the region over time, and. 706 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:20,600 Speaker 2: That's something they're counting on. 707 00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,960 Speaker 3: That our self deterrence, our self restraint is a limiting 708 00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:28,879 Speaker 3: factor by nature of us being responsible and deliberative and 709 00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:33,000 Speaker 3: democratic and trying to be cost efficient and legal, that 710 00:38:33,400 --> 00:38:35,640 Speaker 3: we put ourselves into a box that the other side 711 00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:36,360 Speaker 3: doesn't even. 712 00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:41,480 Speaker 1: Have, right, amazing, You're obviously very knowledgeable. I hope in 713 00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:44,320 Speaker 1: the future we might do this again because I'm afraid, 714 00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:47,080 Speaker 1: sadly this stuff's not going to go away. But I 715 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,160 Speaker 1: think that Benam, you have really been helpful in this. 716 00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,879 Speaker 1: I want to thank you for joining me a news 717 00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:56,319 Speaker 1: world and for helping us understand more about Iran and 718 00:38:56,360 --> 00:39:00,399 Speaker 1: the proxies and the signaling and the challenge the United 719 00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:03,640 Speaker 1: States and coming to grips with a very difficult reality. 720 00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:05,399 Speaker 1: So thank you very very much. 721 00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:08,120 Speaker 3: It was an absolute pleasure, sir, And just let me 722 00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,759 Speaker 3: say from a distance, thank you for your years and 723 00:39:10,840 --> 00:39:11,640 Speaker 3: years of service. 724 00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,839 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Benam Ben Talabloom. You can 725 00:39:18,920 --> 00:39:22,440 Speaker 1: learn more about the Foundation for Defensive Democracies on our 726 00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:26,600 Speaker 1: show page at newtsworld dot com. Newtsworld is produced by 727 00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:31,400 Speaker 1: Gingrid three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guarnsey 728 00:39:31,480 --> 00:39:35,759 Speaker 1: Sloan and our researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for 729 00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:39,799 Speaker 1: the show was created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to 730 00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,200 Speaker 1: the team at gingridh three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, 731 00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:46,160 Speaker 1: I hope you'll go to Apple Podcasts and both rate 732 00:39:46,239 --> 00:39:49,120 Speaker 1: us with five stars and give us a review so 733 00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:52,600 Speaker 1: others can learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners 734 00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:55,960 Speaker 1: of Newtsworld can sign up for my three free weekly 735 00:39:56,040 --> 00:40:01,320 Speaker 1: columns at gingrichswe sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm new Gingrich. 736 00:40:01,480 --> 00:40:02,399 Speaker 1: This is neut World