1 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,120 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast. 2 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:19,360 Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at 3 00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:24,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and Ilana Hi reporter on the Cross Acid team. 4 00:00:24,239 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 1: This week on the show, well, a few weeks ago, 5 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: we talked about the U turn that had happened in markets, 6 00:00:29,080 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: with some of the moves triggered by optimism about vaccines 7 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: and the reopening of the economy reversing and going the 8 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:39,319 Speaker 1: other way. Well, strap on your chin straps because it's 9 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 1: all going back the other way now. Value in cyclical 10 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: stocks are outperforming once again and the yield curve is 11 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 1: once again stepening. So what's going on? Is the new 12 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:52,159 Speaker 1: old the old new again? And can we expect these 13 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,440 Speaker 1: trends to continue? We'll get into it with Chris Gaffney, 14 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,040 Speaker 1: who's the head of World Markets at t I A 15 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 1: A Bank and of Wars. Will close out the show 16 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: with the craziest thing we saw in markets this week, 17 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: And remember, if you see anything crazy, give us a 18 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,479 Speaker 1: call on the podcast hotline at six or six three 19 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 1: to four, three four nine zero, leave us a voice, 20 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: bail and maybe we'll play your craziest thing on the show. Well, 21 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,040 Speaker 1: don one thing that's crazy. Is this weather? This is 22 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 1: the type of weather where an old guy like me 23 00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,040 Speaker 1: is forced to ask the age old question. You're ready, 24 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:32,200 Speaker 1: I'm read well. I was actually just before we started chatting, 25 00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 1: I was reading a story from one of our colleagues 26 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:37,680 Speaker 1: and one of the quotes really struck me was about 27 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:40,040 Speaker 1: the heat wave that's hitting New York City this week 28 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,400 Speaker 1: where where I live, and it said all the cement 29 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 1: is going to radiate heat indoors. It will be life, 30 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:51,560 Speaker 1: life threatening situation, which is my goodness, you just took 31 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 1: this to a very dark place. I was hoping for 32 00:01:55,360 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: some and now, well, the cement that's only to radiate 33 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: heat indoors is that's the part that struck me. I 34 00:02:02,960 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: probably shouldn't have read the second part. Didn't mean to 35 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: scare you. Well. I like that your answer was grounded 36 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 1: in well and well sourced reporting. They're not just not 37 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 1: a nothing off the top of the head. For Wildonna, 38 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: she comes with the actual reporting. My secret is, and Vildonna, 39 00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,160 Speaker 1: this is something as a Jersey native you'll appreciate. My 40 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: secret is Italian ice. I can take any type of 41 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: weather as long as the Italian Ice store is open. 42 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:26,840 Speaker 1: And we got a good new one in town. So 43 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: I don't think you've got as good of an Italian 44 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:31,799 Speaker 1: ice selection as we do here in New Jersey and 45 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 1: New York. Are you talking about Rita's that's like New 46 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:39,040 Speaker 1: Jersey ridis is good. I'm talking about They're actually a 47 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,639 Speaker 1: friend of the family to Cosmos. They only have two stores. 48 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:44,240 Speaker 1: They've been making Italian ice, or as we call him, 49 00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:47,799 Speaker 1: Philly Wooter ice w W O O D E R. 50 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:49,400 Speaker 1: What are ice s ide? No, no one knows what 51 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: you're talking about, but in Philly they do uh hundred 52 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,960 Speaker 1: and five years they've been making Italian ice and Elizabeth 53 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 1: and now new store. In a touching, I didn't mean 54 00:02:58,000 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 1: this to be a plug for the Cosmos, but so 55 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: me it. My friends, my local friends will laugh because 56 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 1: I'm kind of obsessed with them. I I've got a 57 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: bit of an Italian nice problem, but in this heat, 58 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 1: it's the best remedy. Even if I don't know what 59 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:11,320 Speaker 1: the concrete is gonna start melting on us or something. 60 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 1: You're telling me, honestly, you have me sold in the 61 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:17,679 Speaker 1: water ice water ice, What do I all? Right? Well, 62 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 1: even with even with the melting concrete, that that should 63 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: be enough to keep us. Cool, But let's bring in 64 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 1: our guest, um first time on the show. As I said, 65 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: he's from t I A A Back. His name is 66 00:03:28,440 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: Chris Gaffney. Chris, welcome to the show. Thanks much. I 67 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 1: appreciate you the invitation and I look forward to the 68 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 1: discussion today. Yeah, Chris, I'm gonna start off with an 69 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: easy question. I just want to know I'm not very 70 00:03:42,040 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: familiar with the World Markets department of t I A Back. UM, 71 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 1: I'm guessing note some four X services that that type 72 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: of thing talk us through what what your your group 73 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: does and what your role is there. So we offer 74 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 1: individual investors the ability to invest into currencies um, both 75 00:03:58,120 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: for transactional purposes and for an investments, and then precious metals. 76 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:06,280 Speaker 1: So I've run a currency and precious metals desk UM. 77 00:04:06,320 --> 00:04:09,960 Speaker 1: It's kind of unique. You you know, the institutions play 78 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: in that field a lot um, but typically investor individual investors, uh, 79 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:18,599 Speaker 1: you know, have a tougher time finding uh the availability 80 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: of currency investments in and precious metals. So we're big 81 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: on diversification obviously, so we we think they're they're good 82 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 1: asset classes. And I've been in this uh doing this 83 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 1: job for I guess, uh, thirty plus years, thirty five 84 00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 1: years now, so I've been in in a while, still 85 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 1: a rookie, you huh. Yeah. And Chris, I was going 86 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: to ask you. You and I chat from time to time, 87 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 1: and I really enjoy our conversations. I always turned to 88 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 1: you when something's going on with markets and I need 89 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:52,480 Speaker 1: an explainer, And so I was hoping you could sort 90 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: of start us out just giving us a sense of 91 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:57,000 Speaker 1: how you're making sense with what's going on with the 92 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:00,159 Speaker 1: stock market, because coming into August, I remember, the was 93 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: tons of fear about the sort of seasonal volatility factor. 94 00:05:04,279 --> 00:05:08,360 Speaker 1: In August was supposed to be a much choppier month, 95 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: and here we are, We're record highs. It's been sort 96 00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:14,039 Speaker 1: of tranquil. So how are you making sense of everything 97 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: that's going on? It's been great markets, I mean, and 98 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,080 Speaker 1: it all goes back to the economic environment here in 99 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: the US. I mean, this is just a fantastic economic 100 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 1: environment for companies, and and stock performance always goes back 101 00:05:28,880 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: to the earnings to company earnings. So um, you know, 102 00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 1: we've got low interest rates, we've got um pent up demand, 103 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:40,520 Speaker 1: and then you've got extremely strong consumer and corporate balance sheets. 104 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:44,640 Speaker 1: So all those add up to markets that are you know, 105 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,719 Speaker 1: I use the words flogging higher because it's it's not 106 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 1: a dramatic rise that we've seen. Certainly, the numbers are 107 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 1: pretty eye popping when you compare it to you know, 108 00:05:54,440 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 1: the depths of the fall. But uh um, you know 109 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:04,239 Speaker 1: we're just marching higher. Uh continually marching higher. And something 110 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:07,320 Speaker 1: you brought up about Choppingess, we we expected a lot 111 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:10,479 Speaker 1: more choppiness in these markets. I mean we we thought 112 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:14,000 Speaker 1: volatility was going to be pretty high, um with all 113 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: the push pulls that we're seeing. But you know, we've 114 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 1: we've really just seen a slow and steady increase in 115 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: these markets, almost almost boring at times. I you know, 116 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 1: I hate to use that because now we'll see a 117 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 1: dramatic swing, but uh um, you know they've just been 118 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 1: marching higher. Well, one shoppiness I'm guessing your team must 119 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:36,359 Speaker 1: have had their eye on was that that plunge and 120 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 1: goal to start the week? Um, even before the week started. 121 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:43,359 Speaker 1: I guess what was it Sunday night? Uh? You know, yeah, 122 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 1: the precious metals prices. You know, conspiracy theorists will tell 123 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:49,640 Speaker 1: you that, you know, they're they always move on the 124 00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:52,640 Speaker 1: weekends because the markets are you know, uh, there's less 125 00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:54,839 Speaker 1: liquidity out there, and the big moves always come on 126 00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:58,160 Speaker 1: the weekends. And but honestly, we we you know, we 127 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:01,200 Speaker 1: we couldn't figure out exactly what drove that drop. Um 128 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 1: maybe it was the jobs data, you know, the coming 129 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 1: in stronger and um looking, you know, the the focus 130 00:07:09,040 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: of investors shifted from a worry about you know, about 131 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: a slowdown to act a strong labor, strong GDP growth, 132 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:24,520 Speaker 1: and that's not necessarily positive for for the precious metals. 133 00:07:24,520 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: You know, gold is seen as a risk hedge and 134 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:31,960 Speaker 1: along with inflation hedge. So um, good strong markets, good 135 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:36,200 Speaker 1: strong labor growth probably weighed on the pricycle And Chris, 136 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: you just mentioned you guys had thought that the market 137 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 1: was going to be a lot more choppy. There's so 138 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: many superlatives we can say about this market. One that 139 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 1: has been standing standing out for me in recent days is, 140 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 1: you know, we're up more than from the previous peak 141 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: that we had reached before the pandemic. And so I'm 142 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 1: just wondering why it's been so hard to call what's 143 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: been going on with with the market, with stocks just 144 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 1: continuing to I forget the word you used, trudge higher, Yes, 145 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:10,640 Speaker 1: slog higher. Yeah. Um, you know, I think it comes 146 00:08:10,680 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: back to you know we expected shopping is because um, 147 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:18,800 Speaker 1: we're an unprecedented times obviously, and when when you're trying 148 00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: to project where the markets are going to go or 149 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: even economic data, UM, you typically rely on models and 150 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: the economic models. When when you have the dramatic shutdown 151 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 1: of an economy and absolutely stopping everything, um, and then 152 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: the fairly rapid recovery, those models just don't work. Um. 153 00:08:40,120 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 1: So you know, trying to project where we're gonna be 154 00:08:43,520 --> 00:08:47,080 Speaker 1: trying to even even free cash flows. I mean, you 155 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 1: know when when companies have to shut down and then 156 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 1: start back up. Um. You know, the the base effect 157 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: on is one item that you know, the numbers were 158 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,200 Speaker 1: so bad that of course they're going to be really 159 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 1: good on the recovery. Um. But another thing is the comparisons. 160 00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: You you just can't make those comparisons, and it's kind 161 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: of thrown the models out of wax. So uh, projections. 162 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 1: I think most people thought economists weren't going to be 163 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:17,679 Speaker 1: able to really dial in where we were going. But uh, um, 164 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:20,959 Speaker 1: it's I'm glad to say we've been marching steadily high, 165 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 1: you know. Chris I'm wonder the perspective of some of 166 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 1: your clients, UM, who might be internationally focused. UM. You know, obviously, 167 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 1: one of the big themes we heard a lot about 168 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 1: earlier this year and and sort of at the beginning 169 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 1: of the year, UM was a lot of people were 170 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:40,040 Speaker 1: bracing for sort of an outperformance of international equities outside 171 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 1: of the US. UM. To some degree, we've kind of 172 00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:44,480 Speaker 1: seen that, you know, I'm looking at the Bloomberg screen 173 00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:48,319 Speaker 1: here of developed markets, US is about eleventh place out 174 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 1: of twenty four. You know, there's a lot of European 175 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 1: markets Austria, Sweden, Netherlands, France that mark doing doing better. 176 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 1: What's kind of what's kind of the sentiment at this 177 00:09:57,240 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 1: stage of the year in the game, is there has 178 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: that bullishness for sort of the rest of the world 179 00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: worn off. I don't think so, you know, but personally 180 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 1: I'm still bullish on your And it's really about the reopening. 181 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,000 Speaker 1: You know, the US was first to really really well. 182 00:10:15,080 --> 00:10:17,199 Speaker 1: China was first, but then the US came in and 183 00:10:17,800 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: reopened and uh, you know, with our vaccine policy or vaccinations, 184 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 1: although it's stalled out now, we were able to reopen 185 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 1: more quickly than Europe. Europe was a little slower to reopen, 186 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: so you know, we we probably hit that reopening UM 187 00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:38,840 Speaker 1: surge faster than Europe. And and I still think Europe 188 00:10:38,880 --> 00:10:42,319 Speaker 1: is gonna gonna come back. And I think there's opportunities 189 00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: also valuations just favor UM some other UM, other markets 190 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,959 Speaker 1: besides the US. And then on top of all of that, 191 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: you've got the dollar. And you know, anytime you you 192 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 1: invest internationally, unless you had your currency exposure, you're also 193 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:02,439 Speaker 1: investing in the currency of of that market that you're 194 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:06,040 Speaker 1: investing in. So UM. You know, the dollar going into 195 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:10,439 Speaker 1: this UH was very strong and its not even stronger 196 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 1: at the beginning of the pandemic because we saw a 197 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,959 Speaker 1: lot of safe haven buying of the US dollar. International 198 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:20,320 Speaker 1: investors into the dollar came to treasuries. UM we're still 199 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:23,079 Speaker 1: seeing them. The tenure market yesterday was was bought by 200 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: UH central banks, so UM and and outside investors, so 201 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,680 Speaker 1: we're still seeing some of that. UM. The dollar declined 202 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: over over last year, but so far this year it's 203 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 1: starting to move higher again. So UM, I still think 204 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 1: that we're going to see a dollar decline, and mainly 205 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: due to interest rate differentials. UM. But UM, I do 206 00:11:46,559 --> 00:11:50,000 Speaker 1: think there's opportunities overseas still, although the US market is 207 00:11:50,040 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 1: still I think gonna gonna Marke car And speaking of 208 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 1: international markets, I think you and your team are favorable 209 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 1: towards China or and correct me if I'm wrong, But 210 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 1: but I'm wondering if you think what's been happening and 211 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:12,520 Speaker 1: playing out with China over the last couple of weeks 212 00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 1: really is more of a localized event or maybe something 213 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,440 Speaker 1: that could potentially spill over into other parts of the world. 214 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: And how are you thinking about the Chinese markets. I 215 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 1: think there are randan by whichever you want to call it. 216 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: The Chinese currency UM is still a goodbye. I think 217 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 1: that it's it's a currency that will continue to perform 218 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: if if the if the government of China lets it UM. 219 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: I think that the Chinese markets, I mean, I mean 220 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,280 Speaker 1: it's it's the second largest some by some measures, the 221 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:49,560 Speaker 1: largest economy. UM. The delta baron is certainly probably having 222 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:52,440 Speaker 1: an impact there and so we could see some slow down. 223 00:12:52,520 --> 00:12:57,000 Speaker 1: But uh, specifically on the regulation, I think it's you know, 224 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 1: you can look at it two ways. It's it's either 225 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,000 Speaker 1: the Chinese government and being heavy handed and trying to 226 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: get control UM of their economy, which in a way, 227 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: you know, you understand that the governments want to control 228 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 1: what's going on in their economy. Um, but you know, 229 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 1: are they going to go too far and try to 230 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: take it back into the communist I don't believe that. 231 00:13:17,640 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 1: I I think that they'll continue to walk this tight 232 00:13:21,640 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: rope between capitalism and communism and and try to keep 233 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: their markets free and open. Uh as as much as 234 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 1: they are. You could argue that they're not, but uh UM, 235 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: I think the regulation is just a sign of a 236 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 1: maturing economy and a maturing market. They know that in 237 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 1: order to truly take their place among the world stage, 238 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 1: investors have to rely and and trust on economic data, 239 00:13:47,480 --> 00:13:51,679 Speaker 1: trust on company reports, trust that there's no fraud, if 240 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,200 Speaker 1: you will. And so some of the regulations that they're 241 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 1: passing UM are actually positive and I think a sign 242 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 1: that they are trying to you know, mature that market 243 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:06,040 Speaker 1: and trying to um be able to give investors confidence. Now, 244 00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: obviously it's caused the the opposite impact. Investors have worried 245 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,640 Speaker 1: that they're going to come in and maybe take control 246 00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 1: of certain industries, and that's certainly a concern and could 247 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 1: grow into something bigger. UM. But right now, I think 248 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 1: the Chinese economy continues to do very well, growing at 249 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,040 Speaker 1: a good clip, and as long as they don't get 250 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 1: too heavy handed, I think it will continue. They've got 251 00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: just a huge consumer demand in China. UM got good 252 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,800 Speaker 1: uh good exports into the rest of Asia and in 253 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 1: the US and Europe. So as the US and Europe recovers, 254 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:50,120 Speaker 1: I think China continues to do well. Yeah, the regulation, 255 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 1: I mean that's made all the headlines, all all these 256 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:54,400 Speaker 1: every day you wake up to a new sort of 257 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: crackdown on some industry in China, and and to me, 258 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 1: that strikes me as at least for now dominantly a 259 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 1: domestic risk to say Chinese assets, you know, equities, especially 260 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,040 Speaker 1: UM maybe to some degree to the equiporate bod market. 261 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: But one thing I've read this week out of China 262 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: that construct me is maybe something that the rest of 263 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 1: the world needs to worry about, is the credit credit 264 00:15:16,600 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 1: expansion credit and China growing at at sort of the 265 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 1: weakest pace since the height of the pandemic. And I 266 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 1: know this is something that a lot of internationally focused 267 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 1: investors look at, is the credit impulse in China. UM 268 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:35,880 Speaker 1: as sort of a symbol of You know, for years 269 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 1: we've all been focused on experts out of China, but 270 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 1: you have to start thinking about that domestic demand, the 271 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 1: imports into China, that consumer demand, like you talked about, 272 00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: is credit expansion in China, anything that you keep your 273 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,200 Speaker 1: eye on, is it any you know? Does this slowdown? 274 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: Where are you at all? Yeah? It certainly does, because 275 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 1: obviously the world runs on credit. Consumers, especially UM run 276 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: on credit, so UM, you know, slowdown would mean our 277 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 1: our would signal maybe a possible slowdown in the overall economy. 278 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:12,040 Speaker 1: Some of that is due to though them raining in 279 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: some of the UM credit markets and tightening down control 280 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 1: on some of the credit uh that that was going 281 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: on there. So you know, slowdown isn't necessarily really concerning 282 00:16:25,600 --> 00:16:27,800 Speaker 1: to me right now, but certainly keeping an eye on it. 283 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 1: And it absolutely is something we we monitor across the 284 00:16:31,360 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: global economy. It's one of the things that UM drives 285 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 1: currency obviously and demand for currency, so certainly something we 286 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:40,920 Speaker 1: we monitor. And just to bring us back to the 287 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: US and speaking of consumers, my team and I were 288 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 1: looking at some research reports of just consumer behavior and 289 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 1: credit card spending and Apple mobility data and some of 290 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 1: those things just over the last week, over the last 291 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 1: two weeks with the delta variant, and it's sort of 292 00:16:57,000 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: a mixed picture right now. You know, you have reopenings obviously, 293 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 1: but then at the same time mask man needs in 294 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,480 Speaker 1: certain areas and so on. So how should we be 295 00:17:05,560 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: thinking about the delta variant, especially as it relates to 296 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 1: the market. So yeah, I think the delta variant is 297 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:17,160 Speaker 1: really the largest risk to the to the markets right now. Um. 298 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: And you know, as as we see UM hospitalizations climb, 299 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:26,400 Speaker 1: although you know they seem to be peaking now, it's 300 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 1: certainly something that that concerns the market now. You know, 301 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:35,120 Speaker 1: I think Southwest recently announced that their bookings are down 302 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,919 Speaker 1: because of the delta variant. And if we start to 303 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: see restrictions more restrictions and and um not, I don't 304 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 1: think we're going to get the lockdowns. I just don't 305 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: think uh of the public is going to uh going 306 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:54,479 Speaker 1: to go that route. Um, they're they're gonna um, you know, 307 00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:57,800 Speaker 1: we we we've seen in St. Louis where I live, 308 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:00,960 Speaker 1: a big rise in in covid it in Missouri was 309 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:03,919 Speaker 1: one of the big hot states. So um, you know, 310 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:07,000 Speaker 1: we're starting to wear masks again. And and starting some 311 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:11,400 Speaker 1: of those, but the the more harsher lockdowns and closings 312 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,680 Speaker 1: that I don't think we're gonna get there, but it's 313 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 1: certainly a risk and uh, you know, it's something that 314 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:18,960 Speaker 1: we're going to have to continue to deal with. Uh. 315 00:18:19,000 --> 00:18:21,920 Speaker 1: And you know, the booster may be good or or 316 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 1: just getting those those vactination rates up I think is 317 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: the key and hopefully we'll we'll see that increase. You know, Chris, 318 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 1: I wanted to get back to that that notion of 319 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 1: of FX. You know, you made a great point that obviously, 320 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,960 Speaker 1: when you know, take an equity position in the in 321 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:40,720 Speaker 1: an overseas market, you're you're taking on that FX risk too. 322 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:43,800 Speaker 1: It's a bit of a pretty interesting year for the dollar, 323 00:18:43,840 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: you know. I'm looking at this sort of the dollar 324 00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: versus all the major g T and currencies. It's pretty 325 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 1: strongly against all of them on the year. But it's 326 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: been kind of a wild ride, you know that the 327 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,280 Speaker 1: looking at the Bloomberg Dollar Index, it you know, started 328 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: the first say court of the year very strong, that 329 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:04,600 Speaker 1: it came back down the sort of flat line. Now 330 00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:06,880 Speaker 1: it's back up again near the highs of the year. 331 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 1: I'm wondering. You know, I always think of that that 332 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 1: what they call the dollar smile theory. You know that 333 00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 1: it dollar does real well sort of in when the 334 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 1: world's going to hell and everything's risk off, but then 335 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: it also does really well when you know things are 336 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:23,640 Speaker 1: going well, but the U s seems to be doing 337 00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: even better than than the rest of the world. Is 338 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:28,040 Speaker 1: it that latter part that we're seeing now in the 339 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,359 Speaker 1: dollar strength and walk us through kind of what you 340 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,879 Speaker 1: think has been pushing the and pulling the dollar around 341 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 1: this year? Uh? Well, this year, Yeah, it's definitely about 342 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:41,160 Speaker 1: the rebound and the US. The strong gains we saw 343 00:19:41,200 --> 00:19:45,680 Speaker 1: in the US that that attracts investors, It attracts international investors, 344 00:19:45,680 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 1: and of course to buy the stock market in the US, 345 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:51,240 Speaker 1: they have to buy dollars. So um, I think it's 346 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: all about the strength we've seen so far this year 347 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:59,280 Speaker 1: is all about, um, the the equity performance and investors 348 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:01,879 Speaker 1: coming into the US and in the out performance maybe 349 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 1: of of of our economy and early recovery. The main 350 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:10,800 Speaker 1: thing we look at for for currencies, though, one of 351 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 1: the main things is interest rate differentials, and um, you know, 352 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: we were in an odd place over the past uh, 353 00:20:17,880 --> 00:20:21,560 Speaker 1: a few years, probably probably five to seven years where um, 354 00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 1: you know, the dollar was in US interest rates were 355 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:30,679 Speaker 1: actually lower. UM, are are higher than most of the 356 00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 1: rest of the world. So um, you know the interest rates. 357 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: When when the US interest rates are higher, US investments 358 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: usually are risk free, they're they're the cream of the crops. 359 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,320 Speaker 1: So usually the interest rates in the US are a 360 00:20:43,359 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 1: little lower than the rest of the world. UM. That 361 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 1: that changed, and with the Europe going negative interest rates 362 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,119 Speaker 1: and and a lot of you know, Japan going negative 363 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 1: interest rates, we saw the US interest rates higher and 364 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,400 Speaker 1: that caused this dollar strength, and it caused a five 365 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: or six years of dollar strength. UM that started to 366 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:09,360 Speaker 1: reverse last year. The mentality was, um, US was gonna start, um, 367 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 1: you know, keep rates lower for longer. We kept hearing 368 00:21:12,080 --> 00:21:14,320 Speaker 1: Paul say lower for longer, lower for longer. The US 369 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:16,240 Speaker 1: rates are gonna stay down here and the rest of 370 00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,679 Speaker 1: the world starting to HiPE rates. UM. I think we're 371 00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,719 Speaker 1: gonna get back to that thinking. Um, as the US 372 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 1: holds holds the line on on interest rates, we're already 373 00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 1: starting to see you know, Norway and and some of 374 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:33,040 Speaker 1: the other Australia and New Zealand start talking about raising rates, 375 00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 1: even Canada. So as you see these other countries start 376 00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: raising interest rates and interest rate ferential is gonna switch 377 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,880 Speaker 1: back to the foreign currency. So that is is one 378 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 1: of the things that I'm basing my thought that the 379 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 1: dollar um will start sliding again as as you see 380 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: those interest rates different will start to change. So UM, 381 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,360 Speaker 1: I think the dollar UM. You know, it's strong right now, 382 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:00,680 Speaker 1: and if if we see of some of these risks 383 00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,840 Speaker 1: that we talked about come back, I think you'll see 384 00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 1: safe haven flows. Um. But again, in my opinion, you know, 385 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 1: there's there's other markets that are going to start performing 386 00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,400 Speaker 1: well as they come out of the pandemic, and that's 387 00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 1: going to help their currency. So I think the dollar 388 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:19,120 Speaker 1: will start to define again towards the end of the year. Mike, 389 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 1: can I admit something embarrassing? Oh? Absolutely. I've asked Chris 390 00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:29,840 Speaker 1: to to define interest rate differentials at least thirty different 391 00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:32,160 Speaker 1: times for me, and every single time, I'm like, yep, 392 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:34,800 Speaker 1: I got it. But that was a really great explanation. 393 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:39,360 Speaker 1: I was hoping for something really embarrassing. Vildata like this embarrassing, 394 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 1: like you're wearing bell bottom jeans or something. I don't 395 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,440 Speaker 1: know that that that's not just if I can It's 396 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: not just straight interest rates. I mean, you know, you 397 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:52,040 Speaker 1: can go to Brazil and get you know, some pretty 398 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 1: high interest rates, but they have high inflation also, So 399 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: you have to look at the real interest rate. You 400 00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 1: have to look at the difference between UM between the 401 00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 1: nominal rate and and inflation rate, and uh, you know 402 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 1: it's that's what really drives investors. So um, typically they're 403 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:12,159 Speaker 1: gonna go for the you know, they're the typical carry 404 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 1: trade is where an investor goes for real interest rates 405 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,720 Speaker 1: that are higher UM, invest in the currency and and 406 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 1: you know, thinks that the currency is gonna move higher 407 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:25,320 Speaker 1: and along with getting that positive carry on the on 408 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:44,200 Speaker 1: the interest rate. Yeah, because I wonder how noisy that 409 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,920 Speaker 1: potentially can can get when you've got you know, uh 410 00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:50,919 Speaker 1: sort of the if you're a believer in that and 411 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,119 Speaker 1: that the supply bottlenecks are a big part of the 412 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: inflation story right now, you know, as it seems to 413 00:23:56,359 --> 00:24:00,560 Speaker 1: me like maybe bottlenecks could start resolving in certain bographies 414 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: and not others. You know, where we're gonna have say, uh, 415 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:07,679 Speaker 1: transient inflation being a little bit longer in one spot 416 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: than the other. You know, is is that a you know, 417 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 1: is that a risk that of sort of false signals 418 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:17,120 Speaker 1: being sent by inflation data that comes back to earth 419 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: in some places spikes up again and others, but but 420 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:23,879 Speaker 1: at all being sort of noise compared to what you know, 421 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:26,920 Speaker 1: we can expect in the longer term. Great point, And yeah, 422 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 1: I agree with you. Um, it can be very tough. 423 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 1: You know, back to my um previous comment about you know, 424 00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 1: we're an unprecedented times. Uh, the supply bottlenecks when you 425 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,160 Speaker 1: when you shut everything down and not everything can open 426 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 1: up right away and then um, you know, shipping and 427 00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 1: and you know, even opening some of the commodity minds. 428 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: It's tough. But uh, um, you know, the inflation I 429 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 1: think is transient. A lot of the inflation is trans 430 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: and and and I was I really liked Paul's explanation 431 00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 1: of what transient is. He was asked, uh at the 432 00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,680 Speaker 1: at his last press conference about transient And it's not 433 00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:06,640 Speaker 1: that the prices are going to go back down. He's 434 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 1: we're not expecting prices to shift back down. They just 435 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 1: won't keep increasing as quickly as we've seen. Now, you 436 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:18,639 Speaker 1: know what could make inflation not transient is is wage growth. 437 00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 1: If we if we see continued strong wage growth, UM, 438 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 1: that puts more money and consumers pockets on a permanent 439 00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:30,320 Speaker 1: basis um, and that will lead to higher prices as 440 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:34,200 Speaker 1: demand comes back. So um, the supply bottlenecks getting back 441 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,680 Speaker 1: to it though, Yes, absolutely, their supply bottlenecks in certain sectors. 442 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:41,840 Speaker 1: And uh that's gonna drive obviously, when you cut supply, 443 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 1: you know, and demand is still there, you're gonna see 444 00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 1: um swings and prices in order to alleviate that the difference. 445 00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:54,160 Speaker 1: So um, I think it's tough to read. Again, Uh, 446 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:58,160 Speaker 1: the economic data is pretty tough. It can be really noisy. Um. 447 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,879 Speaker 1: And you know, I'm looking forward to when we we 448 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 1: get all this behind us and it starts, uh getting 449 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 1: back to normal. If you will, Chris to educate Fildona 450 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 1: on rate differentials, I'm gonna I'm gonna dig up some 451 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,879 Speaker 1: stories from the European debt crisis, Fildana, to show you 452 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,560 Speaker 1: how how ridiculous it can get. You know, that was 453 00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 1: that was that was fun times. I mean when when 454 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: you had uh, um, you know, but again, you know, 455 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 1: the the interest rates. Uh, we we remember back in 456 00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,840 Speaker 1: the European debt crisis, I think it was Greece or 457 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:35,440 Speaker 1: Italy had uh interest rates. They were just riding on 458 00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 1: on the German backing the implicit German guarantee of their debt, 459 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 1: and their their debt was trading well below US at 460 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 1: at one point, which uh again drove the dollar higher, 461 00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:49,080 Speaker 1: um because of that, you know, and and uh when 462 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:52,399 Speaker 1: you could buy US investments at at a better real 463 00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:56,440 Speaker 1: interest rate than than Greece or Italy, it definitely uh 464 00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:59,640 Speaker 1: moved the market. Well, you look at some of those 465 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:02,680 Speaker 1: spread back then, you know, double digit percentages. It looked 466 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:04,480 Speaker 1: like you're you know, it looked at the time like 467 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 1: Europe was going to fail, that the euro Union was 468 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:12,400 Speaker 1: going to fail completely. And uh it's remarkable to think 469 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,000 Speaker 1: where we are now compared to that. I mean, I 470 00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:17,600 Speaker 1: guess it's just the magic of the ECB money printer 471 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:20,120 Speaker 1: to some degree. I mean they stabilized it. I mean, 472 00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,639 Speaker 1: you know, you go back to you know the Germans 473 00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,359 Speaker 1: uh in in Uh the ECB boy, I just I 474 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:36,199 Speaker 1: just absolutely Uh it's not le guard It was did 475 00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 1: a great job. You know, he was gonna do anything 476 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,879 Speaker 1: he could to support the euro. Um. You know, you 477 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,720 Speaker 1: had the UK trying to leave at the time. So 478 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:48,080 Speaker 1: there was a lot going on those days, and uh, yeah, 479 00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,840 Speaker 1: it was. It was volatile markets, very volatile markets. We 480 00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,960 Speaker 1: saw some really wide swings and interest rates. Whatever you 481 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,159 Speaker 1: send me, Mike can be my end of some of 482 00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 1: the treating you'll have nightmares about. Uh. But that was 483 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,560 Speaker 1: that was the uh. That was the driver of all 484 00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:06,919 Speaker 1: markets at time, was the spread between either Italian and 485 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:11,359 Speaker 1: German debt yields or Greek Greek in Portugal and the 486 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 1: German yields. I will, we'll get you up to speed 487 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,399 Speaker 1: on that fill dot and then that's gonna be the 488 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 1: thing you worry about the most. I guarantee it. I 489 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 1: can't wait to meet it any how. We just get 490 00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,680 Speaker 1: past stuff like that too, though, isn't it. I mean, 491 00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 1: that is in the rear view mirror and and nobody 492 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,280 Speaker 1: ever talks about it anymore. So it's it's it's kind 493 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:33,320 Speaker 1: of crazy how those those um, you know, situations that 494 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,040 Speaker 1: you think are going to be around, you know, and 495 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 1: going to cause these dramatic swings all of a sudden 496 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 1: go away. Yeah. I think that draggy posture of whatever 497 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:45,640 Speaker 1: it takes is. I think every central banker around the 498 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 1: world wrote down those words in a notebook somewhere and said, 499 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,680 Speaker 1: that's that's the party line you gotta take at times 500 00:28:50,680 --> 00:28:54,600 Speaker 1: like last year. Stand clear of the craziest things we 501 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:59,840 Speaker 1: saw in markets this week, Chris, Uh, great stuff. Really 502 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,040 Speaker 1: appreciate all your insights, but now comes the big test 503 00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:05,080 Speaker 1: for you, and that is, uh, we got to hear 504 00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:08,400 Speaker 1: the craziest thing you saw in markets this week. Um, 505 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:10,760 Speaker 1: You're not allowed on the podcast unless you come with 506 00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:13,200 Speaker 1: a crazy thing. I've been in the business a long time. 507 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 1: I go to a lot of investment conferences and back 508 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 1: in the day, Um, there was an investment booth that 509 00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 1: was selling ostro j egg's and it was back in 510 00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 1: the mid nineties. You can and buy a buy an 511 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:31,440 Speaker 1: ostro jag, and they were encouraging people to become ostrich ranchers, 512 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,600 Speaker 1: and literally ostro jags that were going for I think 513 00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:39,040 Speaker 1: fifteen bucks apiece all of a sudden shot up. I 514 00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,680 Speaker 1: mean it was just everybody was getting into the market 515 00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 1: and they shot up to three thousand dollars. Um. This 516 00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,400 Speaker 1: was back in the mid nineties. But then as everything 517 00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 1: does it like the Toolip craze, it it met a 518 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:56,239 Speaker 1: very dramatic end and those three thousand dollars ostro jiggs Uh, 519 00:29:56,440 --> 00:30:00,840 Speaker 1: you know went back to uh fifteen or or twenty bucks, 520 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:04,120 Speaker 1: so it was a dramatic fault. Well, I just read 521 00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:07,400 Speaker 1: an article where they're starting to come back. I guess 522 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,719 Speaker 1: people that you know, we're during COVID wanted new paths, 523 00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:14,040 Speaker 1: are wanting to find a way to to make some 524 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:17,920 Speaker 1: extra money around the house and and so especially in 525 00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:22,040 Speaker 1: taxas where there's bigger ranching. Um. We we're seeing a 526 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:26,680 Speaker 1: lot of um interest in the in the ostra Jack's. Unfortunately, 527 00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,720 Speaker 1: I think it may end up um the same way 528 00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:32,600 Speaker 1: as before. I mean, you know, but we're starting to 529 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:36,320 Speaker 1: see people, uh, doctors and lawyers starting to try to 530 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:41,840 Speaker 1: flip ostriches. Uh. This might be my favorite craziest thing 531 00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:45,560 Speaker 1: of in the history of crazy. Well, I gotta find 532 00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,520 Speaker 1: the prices of the Ostrojacks. I don't think we have 533 00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,600 Speaker 1: the ticker on the Bloomberg. I couldn't find it on Bloomberg. 534 00:30:51,800 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 1: They're not what what what would what would be the ticker? 535 00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:58,800 Speaker 1: I don't know. We got we gotta have you ever 536 00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:01,840 Speaker 1: seen one? They're huge jaggs. I mean, and this this 537 00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,040 Speaker 1: boot used to have them right there on. You know, 538 00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:07,120 Speaker 1: they would show you what the Oscar jagg looked like. 539 00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:09,800 Speaker 1: But you know they're used for meat and leather and 540 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 1: so there's some good uses. But I think they're pretty 541 00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:15,600 Speaker 1: mean birds too. So I was gonna say, yeah, well, 542 00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 1: we gotta find the data set on this. I need 543 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,680 Speaker 1: some price discovery on on Oscar jaggs. And yeah, I was. 544 00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 1: I always sat there, pretty wordery birds. I don't know 545 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:24,600 Speaker 1: if i'd want one as a pet. And what do 546 00:31:24,600 --> 00:31:26,680 Speaker 1: you get? You gotta go out and sit on an 547 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,320 Speaker 1: Oscar jagg yourself for for a few days. That's you 548 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 1: gotta go steal it. And then I guess you you know, 549 00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:34,800 Speaker 1: you steal it from the bird, and they don't like that. 550 00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:38,640 Speaker 1: I don't think this, this is fantastic. I gotta look 551 00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:40,640 Speaker 1: further into that. This that is my kind of story 552 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:42,480 Speaker 1: right there. If they'll thought it, we'll do it. That's 553 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:44,960 Speaker 1: a hard one to follow. I gotta say, I know 554 00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:47,440 Speaker 1: that's really that's a really good one. If if you 555 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,760 Speaker 1: admit it, if you had a real time price quote 556 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,240 Speaker 1: for me, it would have been better. But I I'll 557 00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:55,080 Speaker 1: we'll get that. We'll get that. I'll get I'll find 558 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,320 Speaker 1: a broker. I'll find a broker somewhere. Yeah, that one, 559 00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 1: that one was really I can't can't really follow. I 560 00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 1: was gonna give us my my favorite headline that I 561 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 1: saw on the Bloomberg terminal this week, which is about 562 00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,080 Speaker 1: the garages that are being sold in New York City. 563 00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,520 Speaker 1: So they're going for about three d fifty dollars per 564 00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 1: parking spot in certain for certain garages in the city, 565 00:32:19,400 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 1: which is just crazy. But I was going to ask you, Mike, 566 00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:28,160 Speaker 1: how you think that stacks up with the the the 567 00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:31,240 Speaker 1: average the medium price of of single family homes, which 568 00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 1: is another number that came out this week, which which 569 00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:39,280 Speaker 1: is higher, Yeah, which is higher parking space in Manhattan 570 00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:42,360 Speaker 1: or a single family home. Man, that's a that's a 571 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,480 Speaker 1: tough one. I know, I know the single family home 572 00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 1: price has been going up. I'm gonna say the parking 573 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,560 Speaker 1: space at three fifty is still still a little higher 574 00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 1: than the median home price. Not much, but a little bit. 575 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:58,720 Speaker 1: It's not it's not the median home price is slightly higher, 576 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 1: but they're just about even. So the number that came 577 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:03,800 Speaker 1: out this week for the median home price is that 578 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:08,520 Speaker 1: the prices rose something like which is another crazy story. 579 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,360 Speaker 1: But but yeah, they rose to to an all time 580 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:15,640 Speaker 1: high three fifty seven thousand dollars, so just slightly above. 581 00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:20,400 Speaker 1: I didn't realize they had gone up that much. I 582 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:22,400 Speaker 1: knew they were in the three hundreds this year, but jeesus, 583 00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 1: that's that's what you really want a car in New 584 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:27,480 Speaker 1: York City, though, I guess just to get away on 585 00:33:27,520 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 1: the weekends. I would never want to drive in that city. Ever. 586 00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:33,640 Speaker 1: I might buy one of those parking spots and then 587 00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:35,400 Speaker 1: I'll buy one of those tiny homes you know, have 588 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 1: you seen these things, and I'll park it in the 589 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:40,840 Speaker 1: parking spot, and I might have that. I might end 590 00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:42,720 Speaker 1: up with the nicest place in Manhattan with that. I 591 00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,000 Speaker 1: don't know, what do you think you can open up 592 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:50,240 Speaker 1: your your I'm doing quotes backyard for drinks and tap 593 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,440 Speaker 1: us or something like that. Yeah, we have lots of 594 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 1: Western boys. So I was amazed one of my first 595 00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,000 Speaker 1: trips to New York and I had never seen him 596 00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:03,959 Speaker 1: stacked cars, um, you know, and open parking lots, and 597 00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,200 Speaker 1: I was like, what the heck is that? And yeah, 598 00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:09,719 Speaker 1: there were all these just parking condos. I guess it's 599 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,279 Speaker 1: you know, and elevators up, and I thought that was 600 00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:16,000 Speaker 1: just the wildest thing. Ever, but I see, I guess 601 00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:20,920 Speaker 1: there's there's huge demand this. That's amazing. Three for parking, 602 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:24,480 Speaker 1: I imagine you have to pay some monthly you know, 603 00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,719 Speaker 1: parking spot sweeping fee on top of that too. It's 604 00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:30,279 Speaker 1: probably a thousand bucks a month. But these are these 605 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:32,160 Speaker 1: are both pretty good. I'll give you mine. I think 606 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,719 Speaker 1: I might end up taking the bronze in this episode, 607 00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,160 Speaker 1: but I'll give you mine. But that As you know, 608 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:40,960 Speaker 1: I've been keeping a very close eye on AMC the 609 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,880 Speaker 1: movie theater stock just because you talk about crazy things. 610 00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:49,280 Speaker 1: And uh, this week it reported earnings. Uh. The CEO 611 00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,680 Speaker 1: obviously has really embraced the whole Reddit day trader crowd, 612 00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:54,520 Speaker 1: which I think you have to if you're that guy. 613 00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:57,480 Speaker 1: I mean, uh, you know your company is gonna win 614 00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:00,600 Speaker 1: or fail based on what Reddit decides to do next. 615 00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,400 Speaker 1: So on this conference call after the earnings, he decided 616 00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:07,400 Speaker 1: to take questions from individual retail traders. I think they 617 00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,640 Speaker 1: only took one question from an analyst and the rest 618 00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,520 Speaker 1: of were from They call themselves the Apes, you know, 619 00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:15,120 Speaker 1: the the AMC faithful are known as the Apes. I 620 00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,080 Speaker 1: think it's a reference to the planet of the Apes. 621 00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:22,200 Speaker 1: So here's my question, um My favorite question from one 622 00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:27,919 Speaker 1: of the apes, uh, and the executive the CFO read 623 00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,120 Speaker 1: out the question from a guy named Aaron and it said, 624 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:33,720 Speaker 1: Aaron asks, and I promised, this is not a sarcastic question, 625 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:39,239 Speaker 1: but can you guys make the AMC mascot officially a gorilla? 626 00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:43,319 Speaker 1: And the response from the CEO atam Aaron is just 627 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:45,360 Speaker 1: so priceless, you know, He's like, how do you answer 628 00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:47,400 Speaker 1: these questions? You don't want to offend any of these guys, 629 00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,360 Speaker 1: and it's like, uh, well, it's an interesting question. I 630 00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,520 Speaker 1: don't know. I don't think we're ready for a mascot though. Uh. 631 00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:58,200 Speaker 1: You said, we're gonna watch what I're doing doing with 632 00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:01,480 Speaker 1: our marketing programs, and I think you'll be pleased with 633 00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:04,239 Speaker 1: what AMC is gonna do. But he wouldn't commit Bilboa 634 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,480 Speaker 1: to making an ape mascot, which I think might explain 635 00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:09,600 Speaker 1: that the drop in the stock price after the conference call. 636 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:13,239 Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm just saying, well, our our Boomberg 637 00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:16,879 Speaker 1: opinion colleague Mount Levin had a hilarious column about this 638 00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:20,200 Speaker 1: where he laid out a bunch of those questions, and honestly, 639 00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:22,399 Speaker 1: I was I was laughing reading it. And you're right. 640 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:24,640 Speaker 1: The very last question I believe was from an analyst, 641 00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:27,279 Speaker 1: and there was only one, but it begs the question, 642 00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:31,400 Speaker 1: do you think we need a mascot for the podcast? Oh, definitely, 643 00:36:31,840 --> 00:36:35,520 Speaker 1: let's open it up to the Twitter Twitter Ostrich an Ostrich. 644 00:36:37,360 --> 00:36:40,800 Speaker 1: I think an Ostrich is in Uh, is definitely in contention. 645 00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:45,239 Speaker 1: And if we get anything, Chris has got a deal 646 00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,960 Speaker 1: for us. Bill Donna, you're just gonna have to sit 647 00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:49,879 Speaker 1: on the egg in your apartment for a few months. 648 00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:52,000 Speaker 1: You can do that, right, If I sit on it, 649 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,840 Speaker 1: I'll break the egg. I don't know, but I have 650 00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,080 Speaker 1: a feeling that they probably sit on their eggs for 651 00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:02,839 Speaker 1: like years or something. Yeah, I wouldn't do. The good 652 00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:04,400 Speaker 1: thing is that if we get anything wrong, we can 653 00:37:04,440 --> 00:37:06,640 Speaker 1: just bury our head in the ground. And uh And 654 00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:10,880 Speaker 1: kind of didn't happen, but all right with if and 655 00:37:10,920 --> 00:37:13,160 Speaker 1: if you anyone on Twitter, call the hotline if you 656 00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,440 Speaker 1: have a better mascot for us than an Ostrich. But 657 00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:18,080 Speaker 1: I think that's the lead. That's our lead mascot contender 658 00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,160 Speaker 1: at the moment. Sure, So thanks for that, Chris, and 659 00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,640 Speaker 1: we really appreciate your time on the show this week. 660 00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:25,560 Speaker 1: Really insightful stuff and hopefully we can get you back 661 00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:28,520 Speaker 1: to do it again. I look forward to it. I'd 662 00:37:28,560 --> 00:37:39,839 Speaker 1: love to come back. What Goes Up We'll be back 663 00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:41,880 Speaker 1: next week. And so that you can find us on 664 00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:45,839 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, website and app wherever you get your podcasts, 665 00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:48,040 Speaker 1: We'd love it if you took the time to rate 666 00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,840 Speaker 1: and review the show on Apple podcast so more listeners 667 00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:53,280 Speaker 1: can find us. And you can find us on Twitter, 668 00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,279 Speaker 1: follow me at Rea Anonymous. Wild A high Rich is 669 00:37:57,360 --> 00:38:01,120 Speaker 1: at Wildta high Rich. You can also follow Boomberg Podcasts 670 00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:04,479 Speaker 1: at podcasts and thank you to Charlie pelleto Bloomberg Radio 671 00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,040 Speaker 1: and the voice of the New York City Subway System. 672 00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,600 Speaker 1: What Goes Up is produced by Tofur Foreheads. The head 673 00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:13,080 Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Podcast is Francesco Levy. Thanks for listening. To 674 00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:13,919 Speaker 1: see you next time.