1 00:00:01,920 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us on this special 2 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. Happy Thanksgiving everybody. US markets are 3 00:00:08,920 --> 00:00:12,080 Speaker 1: closed for this holiday. I'm Nathan Hager. Coming up this hour. 4 00:00:12,160 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: We will take a look at the oil market at 5 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: the end of a volatile year dominated by conflict in 6 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 1: Ukraine in the Middle East. Where could prices go under 7 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: the incoming Trump administration. We'll ask Stephen Shork, the founder 8 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 1: and president of the Short Group. Plus what about all 9 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: the anti trust litigation against big tech? Will that be 10 00:00:29,760 --> 00:00:33,199 Speaker 1: headed in a different direction? After January twentieth, Jennifer Ree 11 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 1: will join us for insights. She is a senior analyst 12 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:39,960 Speaker 1: of antitrust litigation at Bloomberg Intelligence. First, we focus on 13 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: the economy. Next week we get the jobs report for 14 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: the month of November. That's ahead of the Federal Reserve's 15 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:48,560 Speaker 1: final rate decision to close out twenty twenty four. For 16 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 1: more and what to expect there, we are pleased to 17 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: open up a special Thanksgiving roundtable today. City US economist 18 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,880 Speaker 1: Veronica Clark is with us along with Jennifer Lee, senior 19 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 1: economist at BMO Capital Markets. It's great to have both 20 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,480 Speaker 1: of you with us here on the holiday. While we 21 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 1: tuck into the Turkey. I guess we've had a chance 22 00:01:07,240 --> 00:01:10,399 Speaker 1: now to digest the feast of data we got just 23 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 1: before this holiday. So veronic all open things up with you. 24 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 1: What is all the data we've seen so far tell 25 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: you about where things could be headed for this economy? 26 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:22,680 Speaker 2: Yeah? Yeah, Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Yeah, we got a lot 27 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 2: of data before the Thanksgiving holiday. I don't think necessarily 28 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 2: anything that changed the backdrop too much. We had GDP 29 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 2: revisions which did not show any real revision to two 30 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:35,279 Speaker 2: Q three GDP. You know'm still rising at a healthy 31 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 2: two point eight percent. Some software manufacturing data durable goods orders, 32 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:43,920 Speaker 2: but we know that manufacturing is in modest contraction. Initial 33 00:01:43,959 --> 00:01:47,280 Speaker 2: jobless claims which remained very low, but continuing job with 34 00:01:47,360 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 2: claims which are rising, and I do think that is 35 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 2: telling a pretty consistent story of a labor market that 36 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 2: is weakening. We do see that layoffs are very low, 37 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:58,320 Speaker 2: but hiring is also very low, and so if you 38 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 2: are losing your job, you're not quickly getting rehired. We 39 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,559 Speaker 2: do think that that results in more labor market weakness 40 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 2: in the data next week. Of course, that's going to 41 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 2: be the most important for the FED. 42 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,480 Speaker 1: Jen how about you. I mean, it does seem like 43 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:13,920 Speaker 1: this economy continues to show signs of resilience, even if 44 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: we are starting to see those little bits of pockets 45 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 1: a weakness in the labor market. 46 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 3: Yes, Ron, I could put it all perfectly. Just want 47 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 3: to point out, especially on the US consumer, which is 48 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 3: obviously the most important component of the overall US economy. 49 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 3: US consumer is still going I'm want to say strong, 50 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,119 Speaker 3: even though we saw softer real spending of just up 51 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 3: point it was just up point one percent, But the 52 00:02:34,480 --> 00:02:36,880 Speaker 3: fact that they still have gas in the tank or 53 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 3: still have you know, juice in the battery, whatever you 54 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:40,799 Speaker 3: want to put it, they're still you know, we're still 55 00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 3: seeing a steady increase in wages and salaries, which is 56 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 3: the most important part of personal income. It's like half 57 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 3: of overall personal income. So that was at like point 58 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 3: five percent, which has been just in line with the 59 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 3: average that we've seen over the past year. So they 60 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,480 Speaker 3: are still making a decent salary, which is what I 61 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 3: think is the most important to the saving rate. A 62 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,119 Speaker 3: little bit from that two year low in the prior month. 63 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:03,040 Speaker 3: So even though they're taking a little bit of a 64 00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 3: break in October, there's still the means to spend. They're 65 00:03:05,919 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 3: just not going to spend it all in one place 66 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:10,040 Speaker 3: and not every single month. And that's still okay. 67 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 1: I want to get into that spending in just a 68 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: little bit, particularly since we're heading into Black Friday, getting 69 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: ready for the start of the holiday shopping season. But 70 00:03:18,040 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: let's focus first on what these signs of resiliency could 71 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 1: mean for the Fed. Veronica, where do you see the 72 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: FED going? 73 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:27,799 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I do think can we do see 74 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:31,239 Speaker 2: the resiliency in consumption and certainly GDP data, But I 75 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,920 Speaker 2: think it's important to keep in mind, you know, the 76 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:36,520 Speaker 2: SEED does not target GDP. They have a dual mandate, 77 00:03:36,520 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 2: which is inflation and the labor market maximum employment. Of course, 78 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 2: we also got PC inflation data this week and it 79 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 2: was about as expected in that is a bit stronger 80 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 2: I think than is comfortable for the FED. But we 81 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:50,680 Speaker 2: already there were no surprises in that data, and we 82 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 2: do think that the high level drivers of inflation are slowing. 83 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 2: You know, we see softer home prices, the labor market 84 00:03:57,760 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 2: that has loosened. Wage growth, it I think is slowing. 85 00:04:00,800 --> 00:04:03,560 Speaker 2: So I don't think anything's particularly concerning on the inflation 86 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 2: front yet. For for FED officials, and then it really 87 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 2: does come down to the labor market and then the 88 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 2: data that we're going to get next week, and we 89 00:04:11,360 --> 00:04:14,080 Speaker 2: do think that this is a loosening labor market that 90 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 2: is on the brink of some outright weakening. You know, 91 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,080 Speaker 2: I think the issue is that, you know, is this 92 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 2: a normalization in the labor market or is it a weakening? 93 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 2: Those two are kind of indistinguishable right now, And once 94 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,440 Speaker 2: you do get to that more extreme weakening step, it's 95 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 2: almost too late for FED policy. So I do think 96 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 2: they'll want to get ahead of that, and we do 97 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 2: think that this is a FED that is still cutting 98 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 2: rates at least to something that looks like three percent. 99 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: Well, what do you think we're going to need to 100 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,159 Speaker 1: see or the FED is going to need to see 101 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 1: in terms of the labor picture when those jobs numbers 102 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 1: come out next week, Jen, What will the FED need 103 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 1: to see in order to get some conviction around the 104 00:04:51,920 --> 00:04:53,520 Speaker 1: idea of a rate cut in December? 105 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 3: Well, I think they're going to have to start or 106 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 3: to see ongoing softness in the broader picture of the 107 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,160 Speaker 3: jobs report, but also some of the you know, some 108 00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 3: of those key components. Of course, the job was rate 109 00:05:04,080 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 3: which at four point one percent, you know, Fed Shair 110 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 3: Powell has said that is still historically is still a 111 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:11,920 Speaker 3: low and a pretty healthy rate overall, and we can't 112 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,800 Speaker 3: disagree with that. So I think it's looking at that, 113 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:18,960 Speaker 3: looking at you know, the different age components as well, 114 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 3: for the job you know about about who's losing their 115 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:25,040 Speaker 3: jobs or where we're seeing job rates increase or decrease, 116 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:27,599 Speaker 3: and of course just the overall games in the in 117 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 3: the labor force, in the household survey in particular, because 118 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 3: we know that the establishment survey, like the headline payroll 119 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:36,160 Speaker 3: report number is always quite choppy. So I think they're 120 00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 3: just gonna be looking at all the figures almost, which 121 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 3: sounds like a weak answer, but that's basically what they 122 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 3: have to do, you know, it's not just focusing on 123 00:05:42,279 --> 00:05:46,160 Speaker 3: one particular component. By the way. For the December rate decision, 124 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:49,760 Speaker 3: I think it's not as clear as it used to be. We, 125 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 3: by the way being, we still look for another rate 126 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:55,360 Speaker 3: cut coming in December, but you know, but we look 127 00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:57,479 Speaker 3: for the FED to sort of hold back and see 128 00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 3: how what the economic landscape looks like, you know, with 129 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:02,840 Speaker 3: the new administration coming on board, and so we look 130 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 3: for maybe about four rate cuts to come in twenty 131 00:06:06,279 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 3: twenty five, bringing us down to just over three percent. 132 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:10,760 Speaker 1: Interesting to see if that'll hold up, depending on what 133 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: we get in the policy front from the incoming president. 134 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:16,600 Speaker 1: But let's get some of your calls on what we 135 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:19,360 Speaker 1: could get from the job's data next week. Veronica, what 136 00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:22,480 Speaker 1: do you think we're going to see in the November payrolls? 137 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,680 Speaker 2: Right right, So we're penciling in one hundred and fifty 138 00:06:25,720 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 2: thousand for right now in the total payroll number. Now 139 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 2: that payroll number, of course was very weak in October, 140 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 2: just twelve thousand jobs added, but we do know that 141 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 2: strikes and hurricanes. Wait on that October number, we should 142 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 2: get the payback that bounce back from that in November. 143 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 2: I do think the most important element of next Fridays 144 00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 2: data is going to be the unemployment rate. That data 145 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 2: should not have been impacted by strikes and hurricanes, and 146 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 2: we saw it, you know, unchanged on a rounded basis 147 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 2: in October, but it did increase. You know, it's very 148 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 2: close surrounding the four point two percent. The only reason 149 00:06:57,640 --> 00:06:59,919 Speaker 2: that it didn't rise actually even more to something like 150 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,560 Speaker 2: four point three percent was we had this big decline 151 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,840 Speaker 2: and labor force participate in October essentially looks to me, like, 152 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 2: you know, I do think the weakening trend that we 153 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 2: saw in employment data over the summer is still holding. 154 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 2: Last week, we actually even got some data on official 155 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 2: payroll numbers for Q two which were much weaker, you know, 156 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 2: data that revisions are based on. So this does look 157 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 2: like a weakening trend of employment, and I think that 158 00:07:25,120 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 2: will get more obvious in November data. We are expecting 159 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 2: the unemployment rate rises back to four point three percent, 160 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 2: I think, which would be more concerning for FED officials. 161 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: How about your November payrolls, called jen, We're a. 162 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:38,800 Speaker 3: Little bit higher than that. We've got about one hundred 163 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,040 Speaker 3: one hundred and eighty ish th which is I think 164 00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 3: roughly inline with consensus. And we've got the job is 165 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 3: rate ticking up to four point two percent, which you 166 00:07:49,080 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 3: know is still again overall, still very low. But of 167 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 3: course it's the trend that counts, right, and we've had 168 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 3: the jobs rate stuck at four point one percent for 169 00:07:57,200 --> 00:07:59,680 Speaker 3: the last couple of months. I will say that, you know, 170 00:07:59,720 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 3: it's just so I always look at the Big Conference 171 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 3: Sports survey and you know what people are saying, you know, 172 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:05,560 Speaker 3: our job is plentiful, are their hard to get? And 173 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 3: it doesn't go hand in hand one hundred percent of 174 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 3: the time with the job was right, But just the 175 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 3: fact that it sort of has been improving over the 176 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 3: last a month or two but it didn't show up 177 00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:18,040 Speaker 3: in the job was raight. So I'm just kind of 178 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 3: curious to see whether or not we could potentially see 179 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 3: a drop. Like I said this last time, and I 180 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 3: was completely wrong, but who knows, we might actually see 181 00:08:24,520 --> 00:08:27,760 Speaker 3: a dip in the jobless rate again. I'm saying that 182 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 3: only because I'm just looking at what the respondents were saying, 183 00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 3: and it shows that the net labor market differential was 184 00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:36,959 Speaker 3: improving improved again for the second month in a row. 185 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,080 Speaker 1: Jennifer Lee's with us here, senior economist to Demo Capital 186 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:43,679 Speaker 1: Markets along with Veronica Clark, us economist at City Group. 187 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 1: Veronica with the resiliency that we're seeing in the US 188 00:08:46,840 --> 00:08:49,439 Speaker 1: economy that we have seen over the last few months, 189 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:53,360 Speaker 1: is FED policy really restrictive? I mean, the FED says 190 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: it is, but the economy keeps holding up. 191 00:08:56,040 --> 00:08:58,079 Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think it is restrictive, and I think 192 00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 2: we're we're seeing that certainly in the right sense. Of sectors. 193 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 2: You know, we've seen for for some time now that 194 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 2: you know, housing activity obviously that's a very rate sensitive sector, 195 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 2: is very soft. We still see construction, you know, coming 196 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 2: down WUD would expect that at some point that translates 197 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 2: to to even weaker construction sector employment. We see manufacturing, 198 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 2: which is is pretty soft. You know, there's there's pockets 199 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 2: of resilience, but overall demand and manufacturing seems to be 200 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 2: modestly contractionary. And I think you're also seeing it just 201 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 2: in the fact that the labor market has loosened, and 202 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 2: I think as long as that trend continues, but officials 203 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 2: will probably conclude that this is still a restrictive level 204 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:38,520 Speaker 2: of rates. I also would you know, expect and maybe 205 00:09:38,520 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 2: be worried that, you know, more of this labor market 206 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 2: weakening really is coming from the more rate sensitive small businesses. 207 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,599 Speaker 2: It's it's probably less in the large corporates. And you know, 208 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:51,840 Speaker 2: obviously financial conditions are very easy, but small businesses, you know, 209 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 2: whose interest expense has gone up, I do think they're 210 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 2: the ones that are cutting more of their their labor 211 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 2: costs and that is a sign that that rates are restrictive. 212 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 1: And since we are heading into the holiday shopping season. 213 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: Here we got Black Friday coming up and all the 214 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: other discounts. Jen want to ask you what kind of 215 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 1: economic pop we could see from holiday shopping, particularly when 216 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,040 Speaker 1: we hear from so many consumers that you know, the 217 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 1: lingering effects of inflation have them feeling a little bit cautious. 218 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 1: Perhaps this year, you. 219 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:22,040 Speaker 3: Know, I don't know if we're going to see too 220 00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 3: much of a pop in the in the Black Friday sales, 221 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 3: only because you know, over the past I don't know 222 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 3: whatever number of years, it seems like we're seeing it 223 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 3: all spread out, like we're no longer waiting for sales 224 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:34,960 Speaker 3: to come, you know, the day after Thanksgiving. I remember 225 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 3: with the first time that you know, one large, very 226 00:10:38,600 --> 00:10:41,839 Speaker 3: large retailer decided to open up their doors on Thanksgiving Day, 227 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 3: and it was like, what are they doing? What are 228 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 3: they doing? They're changing things up? And that sort of 229 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 3: started a trend, and people started opening up their doors 230 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 3: on Thanksgiving like you know, you know, the morning of 231 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:53,480 Speaker 3: or even the day before. So the sales have been 232 00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 3: spread out, we're starting to see you know, more of 233 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,679 Speaker 3: a push. So I don't know how much of a 234 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,319 Speaker 3: strong pop we're going to see you know that's specifically 235 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 3: related to Black Friday sales. But just again going back 236 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:07,760 Speaker 3: to the US consumer, just the fact that they continue 237 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 3: to see steady games and wages which will support future spending. 238 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:13,199 Speaker 3: I think that's the key part as opposed to just 239 00:11:13,240 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 3: looking at you know, one particular months of sales. 240 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: And Veronica, I want to ask you, does it get 241 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 1: more difficult to map out the trajectory for the economy 242 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 1: when we do have a new administration coming in after 243 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 1: January twentieth? 244 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, it absolutely is. Is pretty difficult. You know, it 245 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,960 Speaker 2: is very hard and very uncertain right now what exactly 246 00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 2: to put in our forecast for next year. Still a 247 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 2: lot of moving parts and we'll be you know, adapting 248 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,719 Speaker 2: our forecasts as we learn more. You know, I think 249 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 2: in the immediate term, you know, we were maybe watching for, 250 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,920 Speaker 2: you know, was the election you know, creating any uncertainty 251 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:48,839 Speaker 2: where people holding back on investment or hiring plans you know, 252 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 2: before the election, and it did getting past the election 253 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 2: alleviate some of that uncertainty, So so watching for any 254 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:56,480 Speaker 2: signs of that and maybe some of the sentiment data. 255 00:11:57,040 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 2: And there's been maybe some modestly stronger you know readings 256 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 2: on your regional manufacturing indicators or survey data for services 257 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 2: even in November. But it doesn't necessarily look like that 258 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 2: will be sustained. But I think that's the main, most 259 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,000 Speaker 2: immediate post election dynamic that we're watching. 260 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:17,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for this really great conversation to get the holiday 261 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: season started. 262 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 4: Here. 263 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: That's City US economist Veronica Clark and Jennifer Lee, senior 264 00:12:22,400 --> 00:12:25,679 Speaker 1: economist at BEMO Capital Markets. And coming up next, we're 265 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:27,440 Speaker 1: going to take a closer look at where oil and 266 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 1: gas prices could be headed with Donald Trump headed back 267 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 1: to the White House. We're going to speak with Stephen Shork, 268 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:35,439 Speaker 1: the founder and president of the Shortbrip. As this special 269 00:12:35,520 --> 00:12:39,880 Speaker 1: Thanksgiving edition of Bloomberg Daybreak continues, It's twenty minutes past 270 00:12:39,920 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 1: the hour. I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg. Thanks 271 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 1: so much for joining us on this special edition of 272 00:12:56,360 --> 00:13:00,439 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. US markets are closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. 273 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hager. Well, it's certainly been a volatile year 274 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 1: in the oil market, with conflict in the Middle East 275 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,000 Speaker 1: and Ukraine. Crude traded near eighty seven dollars a barrel 276 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,440 Speaker 1: back in April, but that price dropped throughout the year, 277 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: and now there's speculation crude prices could fall even further 278 00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,280 Speaker 1: under the incoming Trump administration. 279 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 2: We have so much oil under our feet. We have 280 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 2: more liquid gold under. 281 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,559 Speaker 3: Our feet than any country in the world, included Saudi 282 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,920 Speaker 3: Arabia and Russia, and we don't use it. 283 00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,800 Speaker 1: And that was president like Donald Trump earlier this year 284 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 1: on the campaign trail for more on the outlook for 285 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 1: energy markets. In twenty twenty five, we were pleased to 286 00:13:37,280 --> 00:13:40,959 Speaker 1: welcome Stephen Shork, the founder and president of the Short Group. 287 00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 1: Great to have you on with us on this Thanksgiving Day, Stephen. 288 00:13:44,280 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 1: And it wasn't just the commentary from the now president 289 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 1: elect that's fueling speculation here. I mean, we've had some 290 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:55,680 Speaker 1: pretty bold goals that we're hearing now from incoming Treasury 291 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:59,000 Speaker 1: Secretary designates Scott Bessen. For one, he's been talking about 292 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 1: boosting US production by three million barrels a day. I mean, 293 00:14:02,840 --> 00:14:05,839 Speaker 1: how do you see domestic production shifting under this new 294 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 1: White House. 295 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 4: Well, I'd certainly hope that that production would follow the 296 00:14:09,800 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 4: rules of markets as opposed to political hyperbolate. Clearly, the 297 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 4: United States is sitting on a significant amount of oil, 298 00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 4: but we're only going to bring that oil out to 299 00:14:21,280 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 4: the market if the market is calling for it right now. 300 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 4: So there is the potential. I'm a little skeptical if 301 00:14:27,600 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 4: we can get up by fe million battles in the 302 00:14:29,680 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 4: current thirteen point seven million battles for producing today by 303 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:37,800 Speaker 4: far leading the world in production. So at this point 304 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 4: there are some grandiose goals. There's a lot of political 305 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 4: hyperbole out there. I think the thing that investors and 306 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 4: traders want to take away from this is that we 307 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,040 Speaker 4: clearly have made a one hundred and eighty degree shift 308 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 4: when it comes to energy policy with this White House. 309 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:56,520 Speaker 4: The message that the industry had received over the previous 310 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,640 Speaker 4: four years is you're done. It's over. There's no longer 311 00:14:59,640 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 4: going to be be a fossil fuel industry if you 312 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 4: are our corporate treasurer. Very hard to invest in downstream 313 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 4: capacity when you're getting this type of rhetoric as opposed 314 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 4: to what we're seeing now. So I think what we're 315 00:15:11,560 --> 00:15:14,200 Speaker 4: looking at now is more confidence on the industry to 316 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 4: invest and to build out. But certainly, the oil industry, 317 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 4: as any industry, is not a tool of any political party, 318 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:26,440 Speaker 4: and it will respond accordingly as the market dictates. 319 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:30,160 Speaker 1: Well, given current market conditions, what do you see as 320 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,840 Speaker 1: a more realistic production output goal. 321 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,360 Speaker 4: I think what we'll see right now is that a 322 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 4: lot of talk of increased sanctions on Russia, sanctions that 323 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 4: are actually been forced on Iran, is I Ran in 324 00:15:44,720 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 4: both Russia, the current sanctions on them are flouted in 325 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 4: the open. So there will be some production from these 326 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 4: two entities that will be I mean, not eliminated, but 327 00:15:57,720 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 4: it will be difficult to get the oil to the market. 328 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 4: Thirteen point seven, which is where all time highs right 329 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:07,920 Speaker 4: now given current market conditions, where this has been a 330 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 4: demand driven markets, regardless of the potential supply disruptions from 331 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 4: wars in Ukraine, wars in the Mole East, that has 332 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 4: been overshadowed by a lack of demand. So even though 333 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 4: supply is thought to be under constrain, demand isn't there 334 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 4: to put any sort of upward pressure. So production at 335 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 4: current levels I think is a realistic target going into 336 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:33,760 Speaker 4: and three twenty twenty five. 337 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: What do you see in terms of investment into further 338 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 1: domestic production? Can companies the way things are structured now 339 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 1: meet the kind of goals that at least at this 340 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 1: point we're hearing from the incoming administration. 341 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 4: Well, it's going to depend on how we lift any 342 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 4: sort of moratoriums or whether they're codified or it's sent 343 00:16:57,480 --> 00:17:01,600 Speaker 4: through different back channels about investing. Clearly that was the 344 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 4: message that has been received over the past four years. 345 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 4: So those back channels are being lifted. We had a 346 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 4: activist judge that put a moratorium on for the US 347 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:18,400 Speaker 4: LNG expansion. The current administration put a moratorium on permitting 348 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:22,920 Speaker 4: for new LNG expansion. That will disappear a minute one 349 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:26,919 Speaker 4: on January twentieth. It certainly will free up the market 350 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 4: to respond, and there's a tremendous amount of response, both 351 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 4: on the oil side and mostly on the natural gas side, 352 00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:37,399 Speaker 4: and really helping the industry to mature to a level 353 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,880 Speaker 4: where it should have been five years ago. It has 354 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,360 Speaker 4: been retarded up until this point. What we've seen here 355 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,680 Speaker 4: in my home state of Pennsylvania. We're going to restart 356 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 4: thee Mayle Island. We're restarting a nuclear station in southwestern 357 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 4: Michigan to meet the growing power demand being driven by 358 00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 4: AI and data centers. 359 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: We're speaking with STEVENS. Short, the founder and president of 360 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:03,800 Speaker 1: the Short Group energy analysis firm. You mentioned the sanctions 361 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,520 Speaker 1: that are still in place on Iranian oil, how that 362 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 1: could shift. I wonder your view as well on some 363 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 1: of the other sanctions regimes and how they could change 364 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:16,240 Speaker 1: under the next administration, particularly when it comes to Venezuela 365 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 1: and some other countries that are seeing some constraints in 366 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:24,200 Speaker 1: their oil exportabilities given what the current policy is under 367 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 1: the Biden administration. 368 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 4: I in Venezuela is very interesting because of course we're 369 00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 4: talking about a country that's sitting on the largest reserves 370 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 4: of oil in the world. The problem with Venezuelan oil 371 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 4: it is the dirtiest oil in the world. It is 372 00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 4: literally sludge that you have to seed up to reduce 373 00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 4: the discosity so you can actually get distinct to flow 374 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 4: through a pipeline. Now, Venezuela was a pariah prior to 375 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 4: four years ago with the Banduro, and let's be blunt 376 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 4: about this dictatorship. You really don't have to sanction Venezuela. 377 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 4: Socialism is doing all of the sanctioning that that US 378 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:02,160 Speaker 4: could ever do. So there are a lack of investment, 379 00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 4: the deterioration in their infrastructure makes it very difficult for 380 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 4: Venezuela to get oil onto the market. Venezuela is such 381 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 4: a minor player on the global scale, any sort of 382 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 4: sanctions there will easily absorbed is already easily absorbed by 383 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 4: US production alone. 384 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:24,480 Speaker 1: You also mentioned the potential boost to nuclear power that 385 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 1: could be coming, particularly with the needs of AI data centers, 386 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: and I wondered your view as well on how the 387 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,960 Speaker 1: energy transition to more clean energy could be affected now 388 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:39,000 Speaker 1: that we have an incoming administration that's seen as more 389 00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: friendly to fossil fuels but also has a big advisor 390 00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:46,000 Speaker 1: in Tesla CEO Elon Musk. 391 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:51,119 Speaker 4: The push towards the green economy will be retarded, but 392 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 4: it is a good thing because now we're seeking a 393 00:19:54,119 --> 00:20:00,200 Speaker 4: more balanced energy portfolio. We've insisted on going down a 394 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 4: root of the binary routes that we are going to 395 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 4: eliminate every fossil fuel and everything we're going to burn 396 00:20:07,640 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 4: is going to be clean. That is an admirable goal, 397 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,840 Speaker 4: as it is an impossible goal, but it is part 398 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,440 Speaker 4: of the mix. And what we've learned over the past 399 00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:22,359 Speaker 4: two years that the transition. We've codified the amount of 400 00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 4: natural gas and coal that has to be taken out 401 00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:29,080 Speaker 4: of the power stack, the stack that generates electricity, but 402 00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:34,280 Speaker 4: the entities that be the interconnections, the regional transmission organizations, 403 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 4: people like art PGM, which are tasked with aggregating power 404 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,679 Speaker 4: and generating and distributing that power. They've been telling the 405 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:48,439 Speaker 4: government for the past two years that it cannot happen. 406 00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:51,120 Speaker 4: We are taking too much natural gas, too much coal 407 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:55,320 Speaker 4: quote unquote dispatchable BTUs. This is the generation that you 408 00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 4: can turn on a dime and create more electricity. We're 409 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,120 Speaker 4: taking too much of that out of the market too 410 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:05,680 Speaker 4: fast because we can't replace it with all the green initiatives. 411 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,639 Speaker 4: So at this point we'll see a transition back to 412 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:14,359 Speaker 4: a friendlier environment. I think for an entire portfolio, portfolio 413 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 4: that isn't inclusive, and people listening to this, I encourage 414 00:21:17,840 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 4: you to go back to the DNC platform. In twenty twelve, 415 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 4: when President Obama was running for his reelection and he 416 00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:28,680 Speaker 4: had the policy that is now going to be embraced 417 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:33,320 Speaker 4: by the second Trump administration, his policy was pushing green forward, 418 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 4: renewables forward, yes, but also taking advantage of the tremendous 419 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:42,040 Speaker 4: amount of natural resources that this country has a comparative 420 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,520 Speaker 4: advantage for Obama was for that, and with the second 421 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:49,680 Speaker 4: Trump administration, we're going back more towards that Obama energy policy. 422 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,120 Speaker 1: Stephen, do you think we're still going to see an 423 00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 1: impact on geopolitical risk on the crude market with the 424 00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 1: next administration? And what's your price target for crude heading 425 00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 1: into two. 426 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 4: We've seen so many headlines over the past two years, 427 00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 4: first of course with Russia's invasion of Ukraine and then 428 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 4: the atrocities on October seventh, and then the ongoing war 429 00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 4: in the Middle East and what that has done through 430 00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:16,680 Speaker 4: disruption to the flow of oil on tankers coming out 431 00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 4: of the Middle East had to be diverted, but it 432 00:22:19,160 --> 00:22:22,360 Speaker 4: has not had any impact. So with the new administration, 433 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,879 Speaker 4: I'm not a political scientist, but I certainly know some 434 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 4: reputable mainstream media reported because there's actually a discussion in 435 00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 4: this administration of supplying Ukraine now with nuclear weapons. That's insane. 436 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,879 Speaker 4: So I think we can step back perhaps on the 437 00:22:39,000 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 4: rhetoric there and hopefully get some sort of resolution going on. 438 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 4: Is the tragedy that is now partaking in the Middle East, 439 00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 4: Let's see on that. But I do not have certainly 440 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,119 Speaker 4: crystal ball. But what we do have, Nathan, is we 441 00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 4: have mathematics and we have probabilities and we can calculate 442 00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,560 Speaker 4: volatility and we can come up with market direction to 443 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:02,159 Speaker 4: drift of the market. So to go back to your 444 00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:05,959 Speaker 4: question about pricing, Well, we came into this quarter and 445 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 4: I have advice clients with our fall forecast. This is 446 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:12,719 Speaker 4: all based on our probabilistic modeling that we began this 447 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 4: quarter in WTI at just under seventy two dollars a 448 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:19,159 Speaker 4: barrow on the Brent crude all market. We opened up 449 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 4: the market right around seventy two dollars and we had 450 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 4: a fifty percent probability that between the end of September 451 00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 4: and the end of this year that the market would 452 00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 4: hold in between seventy three dollars and fifty nine cents 453 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 4: in WTI, and that would be seventy eight thousand and 454 00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:39,119 Speaker 4: sixty six cents in Brent, with a median output in 455 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:43,640 Speaker 4: WTI sixty four sixty two and in Brent seventy twenty five. 456 00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:47,119 Speaker 4: And that's exactly Nathan, where we've been. We've yo yoed. 457 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 4: We had some strength in the first week of October. 458 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 4: WTI got up to over seventy seven dollars a barrow, 459 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,200 Speaker 4: Brent Crudell got up to almost eighty one dollars a barrew, 460 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:58,640 Speaker 4: but we both markets quickly. You trace back below our 461 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 4: fifty percent line, and we've been yo yoing in between 462 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,639 Speaker 4: that line. Our numbers were between and I'm just going 463 00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 4: to round it now, say seventy three fifty and sixty 464 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,600 Speaker 4: four to fifty. The earlier this week WTI traded just 465 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:14,680 Speaker 4: around seventy one dollars a barrel, so we're right there. 466 00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 4: The same goes with Brent between i'll call it seventy 467 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,240 Speaker 4: nine dollars and seventy dollars, and earlier this week we 468 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 4: traded just over seventy five dollars, so we're halfway in 469 00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 4: between that. In between these ranges, regardless of all the headlines, 470 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:31,639 Speaker 4: the politics, the election, everything that has gone into this 471 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 4: oil has been a very stable market. And your takeaway 472 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 4: here is that, regardless of all of the headlines we've 473 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,400 Speaker 4: seen with regard to supply risk, it's all about demand, 474 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:46,399 Speaker 4: and the demand simply isn't there. So going into twenty 475 00:24:46,440 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 4: twenty five, I suspect we're going to I'll have to 476 00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 4: run the numbers at the end of December, but I 477 00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,520 Speaker 4: think a oil bound in between eighty dollars and sixty 478 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 4: five dollars. I know it's a wide range, but those 479 00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:01,080 Speaker 4: are your extreme prices at the point. But certainly I 480 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,119 Speaker 4: think oil currently where it's been trading at seventy seventy 481 00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 4: five dollars range, that is the sweet spot for oil 482 00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 4: going into twenty twenty five. 483 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 1: Really appreciate this. Stephen, thanks again for being with us. 484 00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 1: That's Stephen Shork, founder and president of the Short Group. 485 00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,240 Speaker 1: And coming up next, what will happen to antitrust litigation 486 00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,680 Speaker 1: against big tech once the new administration takes over? We'll 487 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,520 Speaker 1: speak with Jenniferree, senior litigation analysts for Anti trust with 488 00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:29,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. That's as this special Thanksgiving edition of Bloomberg 489 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:44,080 Speaker 1: Daybreak continues. I'm Nathan Hager, and this is Bloomberg. Thanks 490 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,359 Speaker 1: again for being with us on this special edition of 491 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:50,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak. US markets are closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. 492 00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:53,680 Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hager. Big tech has certainly been in the 493 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 1: crosshairs of US anti trust agencies under the Biden administration. 494 00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 1: So what's going to happen to the slew of cases 495 00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:03,640 Speaker 1: that the industry is facing once Donald Trump takes over 496 00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 1: the White House in January? For answers, we are pleased 497 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:12,480 Speaker 1: to welcome Jenniferree, senior litigation analysts for antitrust at Bloomberg Intelligence. 498 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:14,760 Speaker 1: Great to have you with us, Jen of course, I 499 00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:18,240 Speaker 1: know you've been following these cases very closely, literally for years. 500 00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:21,880 Speaker 1: So what does happen under a new Trump administration? 501 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,720 Speaker 5: Well, thanks for having me, Nathan, and happy Thanksgiving. I 502 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:29,000 Speaker 5: would say not very much in the near term. Maybe 503 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 5: way down the road. For a few of these cases, 504 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,760 Speaker 5: there could be an easier process to get to a settlement, 505 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 5: but I think that depends on what happens in the litigation. 506 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,160 Speaker 5: So let me start with what's going on right now. 507 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:45,639 Speaker 5: We have Department of Justice lawsuits for monopolization against Google 508 00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,080 Speaker 5: in the search area and against Google in the ad 509 00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,680 Speaker 5: tech space. We also have Department of Justice lawsuits against 510 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,720 Speaker 5: Apple and one against Live Nation, and then Federal Trade 511 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 5: Commission suits against Meta and Amazon. Now I should say 512 00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 5: that these aren't the only monopolization lawsuits the agencies have 513 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,240 Speaker 5: ongoing now, but these are the ones that are focused 514 00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 5: on big tech. And I think you know big tech 515 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:09,440 Speaker 5: is an issue because we do know that President elect 516 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,520 Speaker 5: Donald Trump's vice president Jade Vance is no big fan 517 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 5: of any of these companies. He's actually been aligned with 518 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,119 Speaker 5: the position that has been taken by the DOJ and 519 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:21,240 Speaker 5: by the FTC to really aggressively go after them. So 520 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:25,080 Speaker 5: at least he has Donald Trump's ear and we'll have 521 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,640 Speaker 5: some influence on the trajectory of what happens here. So 522 00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 5: the cases that are very far along, for instance, the 523 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,399 Speaker 5: two Department of Justice lawsuits against Google, both in the 524 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,920 Speaker 5: ad tech space and the search space, are very far 525 00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,440 Speaker 5: along in the litigation process. We have a liability decision 526 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,440 Speaker 5: against Google in search. So in the Department of Justice 527 00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,320 Speaker 5: versus Google ad Tech case, they've recently had their closing 528 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 5: arguments and we do expect a decision sometime before the 529 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,920 Speaker 5: end of this year, and we also believe it will 530 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,880 Speaker 5: be a liability decision against Google, so that'll move into 531 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,880 Speaker 5: the remedies phase, just as the Google Department of Justice 532 00:27:57,960 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 5: versus Google Search case has moved into the remedy phase. 533 00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,040 Speaker 5: And the only thing I see happening there that could 534 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:08,280 Speaker 5: be different given Trump's enforcers will be taking charge next 535 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 5: year versus Biden's enforcers, is that if the judge in 536 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 5: the Search case does agree with the Department of Justice 537 00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,440 Speaker 5: and orders a remedy, which is a breakup of the company, 538 00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:21,680 Speaker 5: in other words, forces Google to sell Chrome. I could 539 00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,440 Speaker 5: see some sort of settlement that pulls back on that, 540 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,400 Speaker 5: because we do know that President elect Trump has mentioned 541 00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:29,800 Speaker 5: that he thinks Schoogle needs to be punished, but he 542 00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,200 Speaker 5: doesn't necessarily think of breakup is the way to go. 543 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 5: He talked about that in an interview with Bloomberg's John 544 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,600 Speaker 5: Mickelthwaite just a few weeks ago. So that's one thing 545 00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,920 Speaker 5: that could happen. I should say, I don't expect the 546 00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,440 Speaker 5: judge to order that. We know the Department of Justice 547 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:45,600 Speaker 5: has asked for that remedy. I think this is a 548 00:28:45,640 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 5: cautious judge. I think he's going to it will be 549 00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:50,600 Speaker 5: a tough remedy, but I don't think it's going to 550 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,240 Speaker 5: be structural. In other words, I don't think he'll order 551 00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 5: the company to have to sell off any piece of itself, 552 00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 5: whether it's Chrome or Android. 553 00:28:57,560 --> 00:28:59,440 Speaker 1: Okay, So a lot of these cases that the Biden 554 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 1: administrations should have put in place a pretty late in 555 00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 1: the argument and decision phase. But when it comes to 556 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 1: how the focus could potentially change under a Trump administration 557 00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 1: when it comes to big tech, do you expect any 558 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,760 Speaker 1: changes in terms of whether they could be focusing more 559 00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 1: on the competition piece or the content piece for some 560 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 1: of these companies. 561 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:23,120 Speaker 5: You know, it's a really good question because there's bipartisan 562 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,520 Speaker 5: anger at big tech at the moment, but it comes 563 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 5: from two different places, with most of the Democrats being 564 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:33,600 Speaker 5: concerned about monopolistic conduct and being gatekeepers, whereas on the 565 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 5: Republican side, most of the concern is about the content 566 00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 5: and the feeling that there's some censorship of conservative viewpoints. 567 00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,920 Speaker 5: But the thing is, the antitrust laws can be used 568 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 5: as a punishment even if they shouldn't be. They can 569 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 5: be used as a punishment, even if the concern is 570 00:29:48,080 --> 00:29:51,960 Speaker 5: on the content side. Now, the Federal Communications Commission, the 571 00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:53,800 Speaker 5: Department of Justice, there are other things that can be 572 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 5: done on the content side, But these lawsuits could be 573 00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 5: continued because of the anger about the perceived censorship, even 574 00:30:01,960 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 5: if that's not really a competition violation. 575 00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,160 Speaker 1: Now, more broadly, there's a lot of talk on Wall 576 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,720 Speaker 1: Street as well that once this new administration comes in, 577 00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,280 Speaker 1: the M and A environment, the deal making environment is 578 00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,080 Speaker 1: going to shift dramatically. How do you see it. 579 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 5: I do think it'll shift. I don't think it'll shift dramatically. 580 00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:25,440 Speaker 5: The big difference between this FTC and Department of Justice 581 00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 5: from forty years before is the unwillingness to settle problematic deals. 582 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 5: I mean, it used to be if a deal raised 583 00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 5: anti trust concerns, those concerns would get resolved by a 584 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,000 Speaker 5: sale of a piece of the assets of one of 585 00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 5: the companies or by promises behavioral promises to conduct the 586 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 5: business in a certain way post merger. But this particular 587 00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,720 Speaker 5: Biden's FTC and DJ said no, that didn't work. We 588 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:48,960 Speaker 5: don't think any of these remedies have worked. We think 589 00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,920 Speaker 5: it's led to industries and the economy that's just too 590 00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 5: consolidated and has caused a lot of problems. So we're 591 00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 5: just going to challenge deals that are problematic rather than 592 00:30:57,840 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 5: settling them. I think what we're going to see as 593 00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 5: a step back toward more agreements to settle cases, so 594 00:31:03,560 --> 00:31:06,440 Speaker 5: fewer challenges in court, and more deals that ultimately are 595 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 5: able to close because they're able to get to a 596 00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,600 Speaker 5: settlement with the agencies. I think we'll move in that direction, 597 00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 5: but I don't necessarily think it's going to be this 598 00:31:14,120 --> 00:31:17,800 Speaker 5: complete and total retrenchment where all of these deals easily 599 00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:21,440 Speaker 5: skate by anti trust enforcement in the merger area started 600 00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,479 Speaker 5: to pick up the first time Trump was president, and 601 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 5: under his Department of Justice and his Federal Trade Commission, 602 00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:30,080 Speaker 5: we saw an uptick. So I don't necessarily think we're 603 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:31,520 Speaker 5: going to go back to the way things were ten 604 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:32,520 Speaker 5: or fifteen years ago. 605 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:37,520 Speaker 1: We're speaking with Jenniferree, she's a senior analyst for antitrust 606 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 1: litigation for Bloomberg Intelligence. A lot of question about what 607 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:43,760 Speaker 1: the Federal Trade Commission is going to even look like 608 00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:48,760 Speaker 1: under the next administration. What happens once Lena Khan is 609 00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 1: off the scene. 610 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,480 Speaker 5: Well, I think that there will be a tough period 611 00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,760 Speaker 5: for just a short time for the FTC because I 612 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,760 Speaker 5: suspect Lena Khan will leave on her own in January. 613 00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,800 Speaker 5: That's the convention, it's what's normally done. I think she'll 614 00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 5: probably do that, And what that means it will leave 615 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,160 Speaker 5: two Democrats and two Republicans until Donald Trump can put 616 00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,000 Speaker 5: a new chair in place. Now, he'll appoint one of 617 00:32:10,040 --> 00:32:12,960 Speaker 5: the Republicans as the acting chair right away, but you're 618 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 5: still going to be left with a two to two commission, 619 00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:17,920 Speaker 5: which means if they have a tied vote on an 620 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,479 Speaker 5: enforcement action or pulling back on an FTC policy. They 621 00:32:21,520 --> 00:32:23,520 Speaker 5: won't be able to do it because it requires a 622 00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 5: majority vote to do anything, So for a few months 623 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,880 Speaker 5: they may be a bit stuck. I do think Donald 624 00:32:29,920 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 5: Trump will be able to push through people a little 625 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,320 Speaker 5: faster than usual because he does have a Republican Senate 626 00:32:35,360 --> 00:32:37,920 Speaker 5: in a Republican House. So it just depends on what 627 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,440 Speaker 5: his priorities are and getting his people in place and 628 00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,560 Speaker 5: how fast he can do that. But it could be 629 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,240 Speaker 5: up to six months where they're stuck in that two 630 00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:46,840 Speaker 5: to two situation at the FTC. 631 00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,240 Speaker 1: And what about anti trust leadership at the Justice Department. 632 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,040 Speaker 1: I mean, we have a new Attorney General designate in 633 00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,080 Speaker 1: Pam BONDI what are your thoughts on her when it 634 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:57,760 Speaker 1: comes to anti trust enforcement? 635 00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,320 Speaker 5: You know, I think that she she seems to be 636 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,320 Speaker 5: very conservative obviously and kind of a typical Republican in 637 00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,560 Speaker 5: that respect. I think, really at the end of the day, 638 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,000 Speaker 5: it's going to be more about who is named as 639 00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:13,960 Speaker 5: the Assistant Attorney General in charge of anti trust. That's 640 00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:17,080 Speaker 5: really the main decision maker on the anti trust side, 641 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,680 Speaker 5: and we don't know who that will be yet. But 642 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,240 Speaker 5: the changeover at the DOJ will occur a little bit 643 00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:26,880 Speaker 5: faster because the political appointees, the Attorney General, the assistant 644 00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:29,800 Speaker 5: Attorney generals, they will step down in January and then 645 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:32,560 Speaker 5: somebody else, likely a Republican, will be named as the 646 00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,640 Speaker 5: acting Assistant Attorney General in charge of anti trust and 647 00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:38,840 Speaker 5: will start making the decisions. So we'll see some changeover 648 00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:41,520 Speaker 5: I think in anti trust there more quickly than we 649 00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:43,480 Speaker 5: will at the FTC. And I'm thinking in terms of 650 00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,520 Speaker 5: merger enforcement and those deals that are pending and where 651 00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 5: decisions need to be made. 652 00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:51,320 Speaker 1: And are you expecting any major changes in antitrust legislation, 653 00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:56,960 Speaker 1: any movement on that under a Republican controlled Congress, you know, 654 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:57,440 Speaker 1: I think. 655 00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,920 Speaker 5: That there's some difficulty. They have had difficulty in the 656 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,440 Speaker 5: pass with most of the anti trust bills that have 657 00:34:02,560 --> 00:34:07,920 Speaker 5: been introduced, because even within political parties, there's dissension about 658 00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,080 Speaker 5: exactly what those bills should say and what they should do, 659 00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,839 Speaker 5: and the devil's really in the details. But one thing 660 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:15,759 Speaker 5: I've seen talked about quite a bit that I do 661 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:19,279 Speaker 5: think maybe has a shot is this concept that's been 662 00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:22,680 Speaker 5: floating around for many years with a core group of Republicans, 663 00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:25,319 Speaker 5: which is to take the anti trust enforcement from the 664 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:29,279 Speaker 5: FTC and put it all into the DOJ's hands. This 665 00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,800 Speaker 5: has never really gone very far, but it's possible something 666 00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 5: like that could gain some traction. The FTC, of course, 667 00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,719 Speaker 5: would still have the consumer protection work, which is a 668 00:34:37,719 --> 00:34:40,479 Speaker 5: big part of what that agency does, So I'm sort 669 00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:42,799 Speaker 5: of watching for that to see if something like that 670 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:44,600 Speaker 5: gets pushed forward in the new Congress. 671 00:34:44,920 --> 00:34:48,680 Speaker 1: Of course, one of the biggest advisors for President elect Trump, 672 00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,200 Speaker 1: not just when it comes to tech but for all 673 00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,279 Speaker 1: sorts of issues is Elon Musk. Do you see an 674 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,759 Speaker 1: Elon Musk factor at play when it comes to big 675 00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:57,440 Speaker 1: tech regulation? 676 00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:02,640 Speaker 5: Well, I think possibly yes, going easier on techs, particularly 677 00:35:02,680 --> 00:35:07,320 Speaker 5: in new and innovative areas, for instance, enforcement of AI, 678 00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,759 Speaker 5: the activity in AI this particular, FTC and DJ are 679 00:35:10,800 --> 00:35:14,640 Speaker 5: really watching what happens there because in this next wave 680 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:18,399 Speaker 5: of technology, they don't want once again really big gatekeepers 681 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 5: controlling it. They want any AI technology to be open, 682 00:35:23,440 --> 00:35:26,640 Speaker 5: and so they've been really cracking down investigating investments in 683 00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:29,680 Speaker 5: AI by the big tech companies, looking at AI and 684 00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:32,160 Speaker 5: how it operates, and I think probably with the Elon 685 00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,719 Speaker 5: Musk factor, there might be some pullback on that just 686 00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,920 Speaker 5: to open things up and allow for innovation and in the. 687 00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:39,799 Speaker 1: Time we have left, they'd be curious to get your 688 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,680 Speaker 1: take as well on some of the other pending cases 689 00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:47,680 Speaker 1: outside of tech. We've got a capital one discovered deal 690 00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:50,800 Speaker 1: for one. Where do you see that going? 691 00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,560 Speaker 5: I think that's one deal that really could benefit from 692 00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,080 Speaker 5: the Trump administration. I think he's said a lot of 693 00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 5: things about wanting to go easier on the financial markets. 694 00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:02,800 Speaker 5: That respect, I do think that deal has a better 695 00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,040 Speaker 5: shot at getting through. I had some concerns about if 696 00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,719 Speaker 5: the decision needed to be made this year. I had 697 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:12,680 Speaker 5: some concerns about Biden's DOJ suing to block it. Concerned 698 00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:17,880 Speaker 5: about credit card lending to subprime borrowers. It's a very 699 00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,520 Speaker 5: narrow market, but it is kind of a market that 700 00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:24,279 Speaker 5: this administration has focused on. And I do think under 701 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:28,000 Speaker 5: the Trump administration, because I believe that administration wants to 702 00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,279 Speaker 5: go easier on the financial markets, that deal has a 703 00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:30,840 Speaker 5: better shot. 704 00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 1: And just generally, Jen, do you see the Republican Party 705 00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:39,360 Speaker 1: under President Elect Trump as business friendly as the gop 706 00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 1: of Old. 707 00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:42,640 Speaker 5: No, I don't think so. I mean, this is not 708 00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,560 Speaker 5: the gop of Old and anything. We all know that 709 00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,000 Speaker 5: because we have an example of what happened the first 710 00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:51,239 Speaker 5: time Donald Trump was the president, and to me, you 711 00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,600 Speaker 5: know a lot there's a lot of unknown coming up, 712 00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,799 Speaker 5: and this is an erratic president. We've seen that. But 713 00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:58,600 Speaker 5: I think the best you can do is say the 714 00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,000 Speaker 5: past is the best predictor of future. So I look 715 00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:04,200 Speaker 5: back at those four years, and it wasn't a particularly 716 00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:05,960 Speaker 5: business friendly four years. 717 00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:06,400 Speaker 2: You know. 718 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:09,719 Speaker 5: It was the Trump's DOJ that started investigations of all 719 00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:13,120 Speaker 5: of those big tech platforms and started two lawsuits, one 720 00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,799 Speaker 5: against Meta and one against Google. All of those then 721 00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:20,239 Speaker 5: flourished under Biden's enforcers and turned into lawsuits. It was 722 00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:22,920 Speaker 5: the Trump's Department of Justice and FTC that began to 723 00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:26,560 Speaker 5: look at vertical deals, which Republicans of old always thought 724 00:37:26,560 --> 00:37:29,360 Speaker 5: were fine, that they were pro competitive, let's push them through. 725 00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,160 Speaker 5: It was Trump's for DOJ and FTC that said, wait, 726 00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:35,239 Speaker 5: not so fast. Maybe vertical deals can be harmful and 727 00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,600 Speaker 5: maybe we need to rethink this. So I don't really 728 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 5: see this as going back to the days of the 729 00:37:40,800 --> 00:37:44,560 Speaker 5: very business friendly Republican administrations that we've known. 730 00:37:45,080 --> 00:37:47,400 Speaker 1: Really appreciate this, jen thanks for coming on with us 731 00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:51,000 Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving Day. It's Jennifer Ree, Senior litigation analyst for 732 00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:54,760 Speaker 1: antitrust at Bloomberg Intelligence. Thanks as well to Stephen Shork, 733 00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,359 Speaker 1: president of the Short Group, as well as City US 734 00:37:57,440 --> 00:38:01,560 Speaker 1: economist Veronica Clark and Jennifer Lee, senior economist at Demo 735 00:38:01,719 --> 00:38:04,520 Speaker 1: Capital Markets. Thanks to you as well for listening on 736 00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,520 Speaker 1: this Thanksgiving holiday. I'm Nathan Hager. I hope you'll stay 737 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:09,800 Speaker 1: with us because we've got top stories and global business 738 00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:11,439 Speaker 1: headlines coming up right now.