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Speaker 1: Red Line at one eight eight eight nine, or visit

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to The Favorites, the podcast from the Value and Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: For the first time ever, we are saying welcome to

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Speaker 1: Week eighteen of the regular season. It is Tuesday. We're

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Speaker 1: going to go through the entire slate, Saturday games, Sunday games.

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Speaker 1: We will figure out what our Foxhole bet of the

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Speaker 1: Week is. We will figure out what our Simon Says

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Speaker 1: bet of the week is. We will review last week.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about some reviews all of it with my bff,

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Speaker 1: my companion, my compadre professional better Simon Hunter and Buddy.

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Speaker 1: We made it eighteen weeks later. We're finally a year unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: So we got a little bit of reviewing to do.

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Speaker 1: This past week. We went three and two in our

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Speaker 1: five contest picks. The contest ended and again a couple

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Speaker 1: of reminders here one all these picks we put in

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Speaker 1: the Action Network app. It's free downloaded. Follow it. We're

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Speaker 1: under the name the handle the Faves five. If you

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Speaker 1: follow that you would see what the picks are. And

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Speaker 1: again in this contest, the lines closed on Tuesday or Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: and we didn't have to put our picks in until Sunday.

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Speaker 1: So we get the benefit of seeing a lot of

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Speaker 1: lines moving, we get a benefit of all the COVID news,

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Speaker 1: We get a lot of closing line value, a lot

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Speaker 1: of CLV. So we use that to drive some of

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Speaker 1: our decision making. Of course, didn't really matter this week,

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Speaker 1: because it doesn't matter any week. We had the cold

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Speaker 1: minus six and a half. That was the last minute

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Speaker 1: entry that I'm disappointed in. I really wanted to the Titans,

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Speaker 1: and we did. You said, you said something to me.

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Speaker 1: You said two things to me that totally were indicative

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Speaker 1: of the mistakes we made all season long, which were

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Speaker 1: closing line value has worked for worked for us last week,

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Speaker 1: let's do it again. And we don't like the number

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Speaker 1: on Tennessee into three and a half when the number

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Speaker 1: has come into place so infrequently in this and Tennessee,

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Speaker 1: of course, was my scooterro Let pick. So with the

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Speaker 1: cold minus six and a half lost, that RAN's minus

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Speaker 1: three and a half lost, that Charter's minus five and

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Speaker 1: a half one, that Steelers plus three and a half

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Speaker 1: that closed at Steelers minus three one. That pack minus

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Speaker 1: six and a half. We had that because um it

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Speaker 1: closed at six and a half on Tuesday or Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: but thelan and Cousins were out by the time we

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Speaker 1: had to make the pick three and two. For the year.

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Speaker 1: Simon eighty games, we were forty eight and thirty two.

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Speaker 1: Just people know, because Chad has had eighty games, so

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Speaker 1: pick five games a week. We had a bye week

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Speaker 1: in week four teen. Sorry, I just want to make

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Speaker 1: sure we had that mandatory bye week in week In

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Speaker 1: week fourteen, you just had to choose one week to

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Speaker 1: make a bye eighty games, we were forty eight and

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Speaker 1: thirty two. It's actually astonishing to me that we hit

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Speaker 1: at It felt like every week was so challenging for us.

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Speaker 1: We just stayed the course. We had a lot of

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Speaker 1: four in one weeks, four and one weeks, and then

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Speaker 1: we had one and four one and four weeks. We

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Speaker 1: got lucky. We just never went oh and five and

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Speaker 1: we didn't continually have bad weeks, so we took a

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Speaker 1: good bye week. I think we went two and three

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Speaker 1: or one of four the bye week we took, so

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Speaker 1: a lot of luck. I mean, that's these contests that

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Speaker 1: we talked about at the time, and you need a

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Speaker 1: lot of luck, a couple of things that bounce our away.

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Speaker 1: And that's what sucks is we look at the end

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Speaker 1: of the year and we go, oh my god, we

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Speaker 1: had just won three more games, we would have been

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Speaker 1: the money again. So it's painful, especially where it's like

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Speaker 1: we were in a huge hole. I think on week eight,

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Speaker 1: like we needed we needed a bunch of four and

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Speaker 1: one weeks just to get back above five hundred. But

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Speaker 1: luckily we did really good November, we did really good December,

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Speaker 1: so we got closed, but not not having any five weeks.

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Speaker 1: I heard us we needed five and o weeks to

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Speaker 1: make the money and we just didn't do it. This year.

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Speaker 1: We're last year, I think the final week of the

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Speaker 1: year we were five and o to make the money,

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Speaker 1: so that was definitely difference this year. Yeah, it's just

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Speaker 1: amazing if you look over eighty games that we chose

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Speaker 1: just three or four games, three or four bad beats,

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Speaker 1: and you certainly have them over the course of the

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Speaker 1: year changes the scope of everything. It's so interesting to

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Speaker 1: have that perspective when you look back on an entire season,

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Speaker 1: even the wins you don't remember. You remember all the

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Speaker 1: bad loss So I can tell you all of our

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Speaker 1: bad losses if we needed to, but I can maybe

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Speaker 1: tell you five good wins we got just because the

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Speaker 1: human brain just always goes towards a negative. So it's

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Speaker 1: just funny looking back where it's like I knew we

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Speaker 1: were gonna get back above five dred, I just did

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Speaker 1: not think we would get anywhere close to the money.

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Speaker 1: But like November, the books killed it. That's when we

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Speaker 1: killed it. In December, we were consistently winning. Like we

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Speaker 1: talk every year, if you go three and two every week,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna make the money. Like that's the goal is

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Speaker 1: go three and two every week. So sadly this year

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Speaker 1: I think we averaged out to be like two point seven.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we missed that mark of having three wins

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Speaker 1: every week, but I feel like we did pretty good

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Speaker 1: for how we started to what we turned around the

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Speaker 1: end of the year. Yeah, we started crap. So what

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Speaker 1: we'll keep doing? Uh? In the Phase five is on

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Speaker 1: Sunday Morning after convinced me after our Sunday Morning live show.

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Speaker 1: It is a live show at Action Network h Q

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Speaker 1: on Twitter. You can also catch it on YouTube Action

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Speaker 1: Network YouTube page live. It is not a podcast, a

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Speaker 1: live show. We will take the five that Simon and

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Speaker 1: I love the best, and this time it will be

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Speaker 1: based on the lines in the moment because there is

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Speaker 1: no line from a contest, and we'll put those into

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Speaker 1: uh into the phase five. That's what we're gonna do. Simon. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and it's again people lose their minds on Twitter about

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Speaker 1: our picks. Um, if I make a number and that

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Speaker 1: number is on the other side of the number I make,

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Speaker 1: that's where I look at value. So people are going

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Speaker 1: crazy because I was talking about taking the Eagles at

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Speaker 1: three minus three and a half. I made the number four.

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Speaker 1: Did I get lucky the number landed on four? Of course,

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Speaker 1: but that's what I made the number. So again, if

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Speaker 1: I'm betting big on six and I'm betting big at

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Speaker 1: four and a half with Washington, I never have an

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Speaker 1: issue taking the other side, especially when it's in contest.

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Speaker 1: Contest lines are always weird, Like I get white people

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Speaker 1: lose their minds about these things. But people are like

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Speaker 1: going crazy, like you guys are all about Tennessee, you're

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Speaker 1: all about taking Pittsburgh, and those aren't your picks, and

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Speaker 1: it's like Pittsburgh was one of our picks. We took

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh at three and a half because that was still

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Speaker 1: a good number. I don't want to take Tennessee because

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Speaker 1: it was minus three and a half when it was

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Speaker 1: minus three for the last four days. So it is

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Speaker 1: tough where we psuck ourselves out. But nothing changes. If

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Speaker 1: I say I'm betting a number, I'm betting that number.

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Speaker 1: It's like we still bet Washington when the end up,

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Speaker 1: I think they're up to six and a half. Still

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Speaker 1: took him at six. I just felt that Eagles minus

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Speaker 1: three and a half was a good number. You're getting

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Speaker 1: a key number acrossing the four. So my biggest offs

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Speaker 1: is that Chiefs were but lucky that wasn't one of

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Speaker 1: our five. But man, the referees, dude, that was one

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Speaker 1: of the worst games. As much as I love to

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Speaker 1: blame the refs, it's like you ain't gonna win a

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Speaker 1: game against Joe Burrow and you're putting up three points

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Speaker 1: in the second half. So well, again, we'll look back

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Speaker 1: on the season, We'll talk about our prices of predictions.

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Speaker 1: It's fun looking back, especially on the Bengals where we

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Speaker 1: get him out of plus a thousand. I saw some

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Speaker 1: guy bet them in May at plus two thousand, three hundred.

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Speaker 1: He put I think it was like twenty k down

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Speaker 1: on it took back wherever it was foringer K. I

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Speaker 1: forget what the exact number was. I know our action

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Speaker 1: handle tweeted out, that's got to be an unreal feeling.

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Speaker 1: Obviously that person is a fan of the Bengals and

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Speaker 1: everything like that, but wow, wow, what a call betting

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Speaker 1: a plus two thousand to take that home? All right,

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Speaker 1: So the scoocher let picks we had last week. I

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Speaker 1: had Tennessee minus three and a half. Check. You had

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Speaker 1: the Steelers plus three and a half check. Scooch. You

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Speaker 1: know my original co host and the inspiration for everything

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Speaker 1: we do, Bob Scucci, boy gaming bookmaker. He came out

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Speaker 1: as a guest he had the Packers minus six and

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Speaker 1: a half, and we both gave him so much ship

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Speaker 1: for it. And in the end, I think he knew something.

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Speaker 1: I think he knew feeling was out. I think he

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Speaker 1: knew Cousins was out and it wasn't out yet, because

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Speaker 1: bookmakers know this sometimes, SCOOCHI used to come in the

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Speaker 1: podcast and like, hint that he knew some that was

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Speaker 1: going to be happening, and that's why he likes something.

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Speaker 1: And I think he knew because that line moved almost

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Speaker 1: immediately after the podcast. I nailed it again. That's why

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Speaker 1: I hate betting. Early in the week, I had way

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Speaker 1: too much mind the vikings and I couldn't buy buy

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Speaker 1: out of my position. But luckily I just I didn't

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Speaker 1: do anything. I could have went the other way and

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Speaker 1: took the green Bay. But man, that was a good

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Speaker 1: call by him. All Right, we're gonna get to the games.

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Speaker 1: One quick thing, great review from I hope this person

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Speaker 1: is listening from Rowdy Worm in Saudi Arabia, who says

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Speaker 1: he is thriving because of our podcast despite the fact

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Speaker 1: gambling his outlawed. There. If you're listening, Rowdy, please email

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Speaker 1: podcast that Action Network dot com. Matt Mitchell, our producer,

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Speaker 1: would love to chat with you. Also a lot of

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Speaker 1: requests for Simon to talk about how he breaks down

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Speaker 1: film and preps for the draft. That is all going

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Speaker 1: to be discussed once we get through the season. We

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Speaker 1: have so much good stuff planned in the podcast for

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Speaker 1: when the season ends, talking about draft, talking about futures,

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Speaker 1: talking about wind totals all those kinds of things. It

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Speaker 1: hapens early in the spring, folks, and we're getting plenty

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Speaker 1: of comments about being sick of like Tomlin drops, guess what,

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Speaker 1: the Steelers might not be playing after this week, So

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Speaker 1: you want us to worry about it anymore? Please don't

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Speaker 1: talk to me about more victories. Are that be disrespectful

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Speaker 1: to those guys in the room. Simon. We got some games, buddy,

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Speaker 1: We got a full slate of games. Kansas City Chiefs

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Speaker 1: at Denver Broncos. The Chiefs as ten point favorites Saturday afternoon.

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Speaker 1: It's such a weird week, Like, how do you know

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Speaker 1: what to bet on anything? Right now? Like half of

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Speaker 1: these games, I don't have to do it. There are

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Speaker 1: some games I do love, and we're obviously gonna gover

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Speaker 1: all the games. But there's some games like you just said,

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Speaker 1: what that. We don't know what the hell is gonna happen.

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Speaker 1: We don't know who's playing who's not. The key thing

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Speaker 1: here is people to be on the ready. You can

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Speaker 1: get huge advantages in the final week of the season.

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Speaker 1: I personally loved betting the last week this season. The

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Speaker 1: biggest difference is I might only have ten k down

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Speaker 1: on for different games. Maybe a thousand on one game,

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Speaker 1: maybe two thousand other game. It's very low my volume

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Speaker 1: compared to other weeks where I could. At this point

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Speaker 1: I have up the sixties sev k bet so it's

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Speaker 1: to me people, when you hear the show, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: give out some lines were betting early. I would just

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Speaker 1: really try to save your save your money up for

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Speaker 1: Saturday Sunday morning when we have more information on these games,

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Speaker 1: or if you want to take the early lines, I

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Speaker 1: gotta know what she's doing it. A lot of these

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Speaker 1: games will give out. If you're gonna take the number,

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Speaker 1: you have to take the money line too, because again,

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Speaker 1: these numbers could shift by ten points we don't know,

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Speaker 1: depending on who's playing who's not playing. So well, we'll

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Speaker 1: touch every game, but this game right here, I got

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Speaker 1: no real phiel for it. If I'm if I'm just

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Speaker 1: going off. Who needs it more? It's the Chiefs. The

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Speaker 1: Chiefs need this game. They still can play for a

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Speaker 1: one seed, So I just hate that the number it's at.

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Speaker 1: If it's locked, yeah, I'll bet the Chiefs. I know

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Speaker 1: she's taking the Chiefs. It's Teddy covers. I'm probably gonna

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Speaker 1: be on Denver. So just wait and see when you

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Speaker 1: have more information on here. The quarterback is I think

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Speaker 1: we've said it a few times, Drew log is not

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Speaker 1: an NFL quarterback. He's just terrible. He's actually incapable of

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Speaker 1: playing in the NFL. But I agree, Simon, just wait,

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Speaker 1: just wait until we see what's happening with Teddy Covers,

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Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia, Eagles, Cowboys breaking Matt Mitchell's heart,

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Speaker 1: losing to the Cliff Kingsbury led Cardinals at home. I

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Speaker 1: bet the Cowboys live plus three, barely escaped with a

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Speaker 1: push seven point favorites against the Eagles, who feel like

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Speaker 1: they are greeking of COVID right now. If I'm not mistaken, yep,

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Speaker 1: you got COVID as shoes all over. They're not really

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Speaker 1: playing for a changing position. They know they either way

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Speaker 1: they're gonna be on the road against the Rams or

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Speaker 1: against Tampa Bay. I feel like now much is gonna

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Speaker 1: change for the Eagles here, so they're gonna sit everyone.

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Speaker 1: That's what the sign opened at two two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Shout all up to seven. Once all the COVID stuff

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Speaker 1: cary coming out and people started realizing the Eagles probably

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Speaker 1: we're gonna sit starters, So yeah, I'll be on Dallas.

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Speaker 1: But again, that's another one I gotta know, is she waiting?

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Speaker 1: You've already missed the early line value. I can't see

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Speaker 1: this gain above ten um. They'll keep moving it up,

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Speaker 1: but eventually like to say, this game did somehow reach

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Speaker 1: thirteen thirteen and a half. All depends again on who's

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Speaker 1: playing for the Eagles. But if it's Minshew starting, I

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Speaker 1: might have to come in and take the Eagles. But

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Speaker 1: now at the early position here we sit on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: you take the Cowboys. That's where the value is right now.

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Speaker 1: Minus seven Cowboys seven point favorites on the road. That's gross.

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Speaker 1: That's that's again, that's a week eight team line. Everyone

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Speaker 1: keeps talking about the Cowboys offense. They really are struggling.

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Speaker 1: They cannot and and Dack you know that fumble cost

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Speaker 1: him the game, right and in the fourth quarter. They

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Speaker 1: do not seem to be an efficient, high caliber offense,

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Speaker 1: which is what they seem to be earlier in the year.

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Speaker 1: I think they've got some significant issues because we had

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Speaker 1: into the postseason. Yeah, and that was battery by me.

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Speaker 1: I kept trying to fade the Cowboys. But luck out. Unluckily,

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Speaker 1: I was just fading them with bad team. They tried

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Speaker 1: fade them with Washington, didn't work out. Tried to fade

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Speaker 1: them the Giants, didn't work out, income the Cardinals, and

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals kind of showed us all our fears with

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Speaker 1: this Cowboys team. They just don't They don't play well

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Speaker 1: against teams above five hundred, and they haven't. They've done

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Speaker 1: that all year so ever since Dad came back from

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Speaker 1: that injury, he just has them been right. Like you said,

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Speaker 1: he has never found that rhythm that they had to

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Speaker 1: start the year. Again, if you go back and watch

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Speaker 1: filming them to start the year, it was incredible. He

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Speaker 1: would go off. His reads were so quick. You'd go one, two, three,

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Speaker 1: right down a lot really quick reads and where you

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Speaker 1: need to put the ball, and you'd get the ball

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Speaker 1: out of his hands quick. Now he's taking his time

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Speaker 1: back there, he's staring down receivers, he's literally making his

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Speaker 1: mind up for the balls even snap the where he's

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Speaker 1: gonna go with the ball. Now they're down gallop as well.

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Speaker 1: Someone like me, that's a Super Bowl future. I feel

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Speaker 1: like it's dead money at this point that that was

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Speaker 1: a bad read on my part taking believe in the

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Speaker 1: hype and buying them the Cowboys midway through the season,

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Speaker 1: it totally feels like a dead ticket. Completely feels like

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Speaker 1: a dead ticket. But again, it's football, so you never know.

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Speaker 1: But just from what people have seen this season, I

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Speaker 1: don't think anyone can put any logic behind why this

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Speaker 1: team could make a Super Bowl run. They just they

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Speaker 1: just have them beat good teams. I gotta try to

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Speaker 1: stick my guns from the preseason where it's like I

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Speaker 1: have these reads on these teams. The Cowboys are, who

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Speaker 1: are they? We thought they were, just like the Browns were.

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Speaker 1: I'm still holding uh Packers and Bill's super Bowl tickets.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to enjoy getting a Packers Bill super Bowl

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Speaker 1: and being a winner either way. I don't think I've

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Speaker 1: ever seen a more disrespected one seed than Tennessee Titans.

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Speaker 1: But again we'll get to that. Not even considerations Steelers

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Speaker 1: at Baltimore Ravens. This line has been jumping all over

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Speaker 1: the place. Was that six and a half went down

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Speaker 1: to six, went back up to six and a half,

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Speaker 1: went down to five, went down to four and a half,

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Speaker 1: came back up to five. Now it's a five and

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Speaker 1: a half. I mean what the hell someone someone That's

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Speaker 1: the thing that's been so tough is it's like someone

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Speaker 1: knows something. And also some of these guys don't know ship.

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Speaker 1: I knew two really big time professional groups that came

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Speaker 1: in heavy late on the Browns last night. They took

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Speaker 1: that number all away from three down to minus one.

336
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Speaker 1: They were dumbasses. That was a terrible bet. Their whole

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Speaker 1: reason behind it was they had info that the Browns

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Speaker 1: were playing all their starters. They were all in that

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Speaker 1: that fault that movement earlier in the year, like early

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Speaker 1: in the day, I mean, was movement that someone had

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Speaker 1: info that Browns are gonna restarters. So then whne moved

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Speaker 1: all up to three. These guys got info no Baker's playing,

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Speaker 1: Chubb's playing, their defense is playing. The number came shooting

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Speaker 1: right down. So this was again like pros are betting

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Speaker 1: this number. I'll I don't know information they have that

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Speaker 1: maybe Lamar is gonna play, Maybe Pittsburgh is I don't know,

347
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Speaker 1: more banged up than we realized. But I don't know

348
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Speaker 1: what to do with this. I want to take Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: It's you're giving me plus five and a half, and

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Speaker 1: we believe that there's gonna be a backup playing for

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Speaker 1: the Ravens, right, Like, none of us really believe Lamar

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Speaker 1: is gonna be back for this game, So I don't

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Speaker 1: know what to deal with it. I'll take the number

354
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Speaker 1: and I'll take five and a half with this Pittsburgh team.

355
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Speaker 1: But you know, if it, if it comes out that whatever,

356
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Speaker 1: eight percent of the money of the bets are coming

357
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Speaker 1: in on Pittsburgh, you know, I hate public dogs already

358
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Speaker 1: talked off it, but just looking at this number doesn't

359
00:16:47,520 --> 00:16:48,960
Speaker 1: make sense to me. If this is a backup for

360
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Speaker 1: the Ravens. I'll take five and a half all day

361
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Speaker 1: with this Pittsburgh team. Well, right now, all the money

362
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Speaker 1: and all the bets are coming in on the rates,

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Speaker 1: so someone knows something. But I'll take Pittsburgh. I guess

364
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Speaker 1: maybe they're thinking emotional let down by this Pittsburgh team

365
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Speaker 1: off what that game was last night for a big Ben,

366
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Speaker 1: everything like that. But I don't I feel like we

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Speaker 1: don't make these bets on Pickedburgh because the Big Ben,

368
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,080
Speaker 1: and they make these bets because their defense, in their

369
00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 1: running game and Mike Mike Tomlas to get the opponent.

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Speaker 1: They nameless great faces. It's a weird one. I'll have

371
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Speaker 1: to talk to other pros and hear what they're saying.

372
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Speaker 1: But to me, I feel like this is a good

373
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Speaker 1: bet for Pittsburgh. Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns another one

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00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,480
Speaker 1: kind of wacky. You know. It was hovering in that

375
00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,240
Speaker 1: Browns minus two and a half and then it got

376
00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:34,480
Speaker 1: down to one, and now all of a sudden, it's

377
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:38,480
Speaker 1: all flipp peru. We're talking about Cincinnati at minus three

378
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,720
Speaker 1: and a half. Obviously, last night has so much to

379
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Speaker 1: do with it. The Browns are out of it. They

380
00:17:44,080 --> 00:17:49,640
Speaker 1: looked dreadful. Anyways. Right now, the Bengals are about two

381
00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,280
Speaker 1: and a half three point favorite, and the news right

382
00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,400
Speaker 1: before he came on broke Baker's out of this game.

383
00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,639
Speaker 1: He's gonna go good surgery, So case Keenum will be

384
00:17:56,720 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 1: the starter for the Browns. I don't know what the

385
00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:00,720
Speaker 1: hell to do with. This could be the battle of

386
00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:03,679
Speaker 1: the backup quarterbacks. I guess I'll take the plus number

387
00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,320
Speaker 1: with the Browns at home, assume that since he's playing

388
00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,479
Speaker 1: all their backups too. But no idea. It's again, these

389
00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 1: are a couple of games I have no ideal to

390
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:12,199
Speaker 1: do with. I have no idea what to do with

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00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,040
Speaker 1: this game on Tuesday. I would just if I had

392
00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 1: to make a pick, I'd take the points with the Browns.

393
00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:19,040
Speaker 1: This is a wait and see. Yeah, where do you

394
00:18:19,040 --> 00:18:22,120
Speaker 1: think Baker Mayfield plays next year? If it's not Canada,

395
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,080
Speaker 1: I don't know. The worst advice he'd ever got in

396
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Speaker 1: his life was to keep playing through that injury. They were,

397
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:31,160
Speaker 1: what six and two when he got that injury. Take

398
00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,119
Speaker 1: the surgery right there, buddy. He could have gone with

399
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,200
Speaker 1: his agent went to the brown said, look, we got

400
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:36,679
Speaker 1: you guys at six and two. Give us a two

401
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 1: year deal, a one year deal, whatever they were gonna

402
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:40,520
Speaker 1: give him. I'll play it out with you, guys. I

403
00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,040
Speaker 1: just want to be the starter. No team, no team

404
00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 1: is gonna want to make Baker starter next year. Like

405
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:48,760
Speaker 1: everything you saw from him, regression, regression and aggression. Would

406
00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:51,120
Speaker 1: not make sense to take an undersized quarterback who gets

407
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:54,920
Speaker 1: hurt all the time. He's got accuracy issues. Yeah, and

408
00:18:54,920 --> 00:18:57,120
Speaker 1: he's a first he's still a first three quarterback after

409
00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 1: five years in the league. Geez, that's amazing. Is amazing.

410
00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:07,959
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans. Alright, the Titans number one seed. Titans,

411
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 1: the most disrespected number one seed in the history of

412
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 1: the NFL playoffs. They are ten and a half point favorites.

413
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,560
Speaker 1: I'll tell you right now, this is a smash spot

414
00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:20,359
Speaker 1: for the Texas. I love that. So you can hop

415
00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:22,040
Speaker 1: on Vandel right now, and you can open up your

416
00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,160
Speaker 1: app and you can see they can give you season awards.

417
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:28,480
Speaker 1: You can bet on Rabel, the one seed who lost

418
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:30,680
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. He's been down to a j Brown for

419
00:19:30,760 --> 00:19:32,959
Speaker 1: more than half the season. He's down Julia from more

420
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 1: than half the season, had one of the most banged

421
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:39,080
Speaker 1: up defenses almost all season. Rabel, they're the one seed

422
00:19:39,119 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 1: now and the FC. I feel like this is the

423
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:43,720
Speaker 1: most undertalked about stories in all the football. It's bizarre

424
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 1: because I guess Tennessee is, like we talked about. It's

425
00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,000
Speaker 1: one of these teams that no one cares about. They're

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00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,520
Speaker 1: the team that Tom Hanks like the castaway. No one

427
00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:54,359
Speaker 1: cares about Tennessee. I do. I love this whole variable story.

428
00:19:54,400 --> 00:19:56,879
Speaker 1: He's still plus three fifty right now on Fandel. I

429
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,040
Speaker 1: love that AFRIC Coach of the Year. I bet that

430
00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,879
Speaker 1: that's Zack Taylor. What the hell are we talking about?

431
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,480
Speaker 1: Because he won that game against the Chiefs at home

432
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:07,040
Speaker 1: and he's ten and six, He's gonna win Coach of

433
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 1: the Year over Varibral What what what is happening right now?

434
00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,359
Speaker 1: I feel like it's just such a live in the

435
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:17,639
Speaker 1: moment kind of award. Um I, I just I cannot

436
00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,840
Speaker 1: see these writers not get into variable for Coach of

437
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:21,439
Speaker 1: the Year. What when you just look on paper what

438
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,680
Speaker 1: he's done with his team again, They've lost to the Jets,

439
00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:27,440
Speaker 1: and they lost to Houston, but somehow they're still the

440
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 1: one seed. It's it's literally feels like we're living a

441
00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 1: bizarro world. Um I, I can't get over how good

442
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:34,880
Speaker 1: of a job he's done. That team just took on

443
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 1: his identity of just being a tough next man up

444
00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 1: who gives a ship. All we gotta do is just win.

445
00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 1: Like it's it really is incredible. The fact that they're

446
00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 1: the one seed. So looking at this, I'm with Chad,

447
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:49,560
Speaker 1: I would take Houston just in the fact that they're

448
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:51,920
Speaker 1: they're they're gonna be looking past this Houston team. They're

449
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,320
Speaker 1: already thinking themselves, all we gotta do is steam roll

450
00:20:55,359 --> 00:20:59,600
Speaker 1: a bad team to get the one seed. The the

451
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,440
Speaker 1: fact it's ten, that's why, Like, to me, this is

452
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 1: a good number. I made this nine nine doesn't surprise

453
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 1: me at all. It's ten because everyone's gonna be teasing

454
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,439
Speaker 1: and everyone's gonna betting this Tennessee team because they just

455
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,640
Speaker 1: gotta win. So this will be one of the big

456
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,920
Speaker 1: money line plays all this week. And this isn't the

457
00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:17,639
Speaker 1: game I'm calling for the upset. But what touch on

458
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,199
Speaker 1: that game coming up? We see it every year. People

459
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 1: don't fall into these traps of this team just needs

460
00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:24,800
Speaker 1: to win to make the playoffs. So this team just

461
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:26,680
Speaker 1: needs to win to get that one seat. They're gonna

462
00:21:26,680 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 1: be motivated. Dolphins. Last year they went up to the Bills.

463
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,640
Speaker 1: The Bills played their backups. I think that Bills beat

464
00:21:32,680 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: them by like twenty points and Miami played all their

465
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,680
Speaker 1: starters they needed to win. Again the playoffs, they lost

466
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,400
Speaker 1: play twenty to the backup to the Bills. Be careful

467
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 1: and making these bets, Like I know you're thinking, Oh,

468
00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 1: this team doesn't care. They're gonna be sitting guys playing

469
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 1: against the team that needs to make the playoffs. It

470
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,639
Speaker 1: doesn't work that make These guys are all motivated, they

471
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:51,080
Speaker 1: all want to win. So definitely be careful with just

472
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 1: going off what scenarios you need for teams to make

473
00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:56,400
Speaker 1: playoffs or what seeding they need. Here's why I'm taking

474
00:21:56,440 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 1: the Texans. They have played hard all year. You know,

475
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,679
Speaker 1: it is rare They've been in a spot even this

476
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:05,359
Speaker 1: past week. I know, you love the Niners at minus

477
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:06,920
Speaker 1: twelve and a half and they have went in by

478
00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 1: sixteen I think or something like that. That was close.

479
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 1: Davis Mills is better than people are giving him credit for.

480
00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:17,800
Speaker 1: The Texans team has played harder than people have given

481
00:22:17,840 --> 00:22:22,400
Speaker 1: them credit for. We o Dave Culley an apology for

482
00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,040
Speaker 1: not giving him sort of the benefit of the doubt

483
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 1: as a longtime professional football coach who is going to

484
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: come in and do a good job with a really,

485
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:34,399
Speaker 1: really dreadful roster. So I'm looking to the the Texans and

486
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 1: I'm thinking they want to go out on a high.

487
00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 1: They want to go out momentum. This game does mean

488
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 1: something to them. It's home home dog, a big home

489
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 1: dog at that Yeah, Washington football team at New York Giants.

490
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:53,160
Speaker 1: Washington football team soon to be renamed something else. Six

491
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:55,960
Speaker 1: and a half point road favorites. It is so funny though,

492
00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:57,680
Speaker 1: You look back on life and it is crazy. We

493
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 1: called them the Redskins for all those years even you say,

494
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 1: now you feel a little icky. It's just weird. What

495
00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:04,600
Speaker 1: the hell are we gonna do with this? We talked

496
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:06,159
Speaker 1: last week. I told you that the Giants from my

497
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 1: worst rated team in all football, had them lower than

498
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,399
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. The Lions had him lower than everyone at

499
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,640
Speaker 1: him thirty second in the league. Had a pro group

500
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 1: reach out to me, said that they were all over

501
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,280
Speaker 1: the Giants last week. So I didn't bet as much

502
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 1: as I wanted to on it first snap. Everyone had

503
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 1: the same feeling. And why the fund do we not

504
00:23:22,640 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 1: put all of our money on this? I mean, they're

505
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:30,600
Speaker 1: They're awful. The Giants are awful. Their coaches delusional. He

506
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,000
Speaker 1: just spits talks out of his ass about nothing, he says.

507
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 1: People call him up saying they miss being on the Giants.

508
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 1: A bunch of bs X players miss playing for him.

509
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,959
Speaker 1: You've never had a winning season, dude, Like Joe Judge,

510
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 1: he's anti like he is a psychopath. Um So, as

511
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 1: an Egos fan, I hope they never get rid of them.

512
00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 1: I hope they keep Gettelman, keep it going. Giants, I

513
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,680
Speaker 1: mean they it. It feels like they're paying for their

514
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 1: sins of beating Tom Brady twice in the Super Bowl

515
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,840
Speaker 1: with Eli Manning. And they've just been paying for the

516
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 1: last ten years. I mean ten years now. This Joe Judge,

517
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 1: he's already talking about Rivera too. They're bet they're playing

518
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 1: Foreman as well. I'm all over Washington. I don't care

519
00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: Washington might have people are like, oh, they're gonna give

520
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 1: up on the season two. I did not see that

521
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:14,280
Speaker 1: all last week. They played hard against the Eagles the

522
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: entire game. They just sucked. That's why they didn't win.

523
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 1: So to me, two terrible teams under a touchdown. The

524
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: Shiants team is simply quit on their head coach. Chicago

525
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 1: Bears at Minnesota Vikings. The Bears are about three point dogs.

526
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:30,960
Speaker 1: You can get the Vikings at two and a half.

527
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:35,239
Speaker 1: It's some books. Mike Simmer had the best comment. If

528
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 1: people didn't see it. Uh. Someone asked him at his

529
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 1: press conference this week, will you be giving a look

530
00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 1: to Kellyn Mond? I think you want to get a

531
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 1: look at mom next week? Not particularly. Next question was

532
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:49,320
Speaker 1: why don't you feel like you need to see him

533
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 1: shame every day? If that's not an indictment on how

534
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:56,119
Speaker 1: bad this guy has been in practice all season long,

535
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 1: I don't know what it is. It is wild to

536
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:00,880
Speaker 1: hear that because I loved him coming out Texas saying

537
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 1: now ran a pro style offense in college. Really really athletic,

538
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 1: has a great arm. He must be an idiot. That

539
00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: that must be what's going on here. This kid must

540
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 1: not be able to read defenses because that kid, Sean

541
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,200
Speaker 1: was bad. The fact that he's playing over him was

542
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 1: just that was bad. So yeah, I'll take Kirk with

543
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:22,800
Speaker 1: the number like whatever do you think that numbers moved

544
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,400
Speaker 1: like European? Do you think of snumbers moved? Because people

545
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,639
Speaker 1: don't think Kirk's will get cleared because I don't really

546
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:30,080
Speaker 1: understand the movement. It's neither of these teams are motivated

547
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:34,439
Speaker 1: one one team is way better talent wise, And I

548
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 1: guess what what is the motivation for the Bears? That's

549
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: what I'm trying to figure out here. What why would

550
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,679
Speaker 1: they Why is this line moving so much towards the Bears.

551
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: I can't really see it other than it's Matt Niggie's

552
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 1: last game and he knows it. I looked at the

553
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:50,919
Speaker 1: Bears last week as I was watching this, and I

554
00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 1: said to my kid, the Bears defensive players are putting

555
00:25:55,440 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 1: stuff on tape for the next coach in Minnesota. It

556
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 1: has come out yet whether or not my exammer is

557
00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,360
Speaker 1: going to stick around. Their season is over and they're

558
00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: ending it in a very disappointing way, whereas the Bears,

559
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,919
Speaker 1: like they kind of expected to be a disappointment. So

560
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:13,840
Speaker 1: now they're just happy the season is over and they're

561
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 1: excited to play one more game. You know that they're

562
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: off and know that they're going to get a new coach.

563
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,199
Speaker 1: It's a weird thing, but there is sort of a

564
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:26,639
Speaker 1: palpable difference to me emotionally between the two teams. Um

565
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 1: that said, even the vikings at less than three against

566
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: the Bears, I'm taking that. Yeah, So that's how I

567
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 1: feel about it too, even even though it looks like

568
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: a trap because the money and the bets are coming

569
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 1: in on Minnesota and it's moved three points against him.

570
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: Like I just said, it's a tender of field goal

571
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 1: at home. There's a much better team Minnesota. So that's

572
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 1: one of those where I'm gonna wait. I'm not gonna

573
00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:47,919
Speaker 1: bet it yet, just I want to know who's playing,

574
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 1: and if it's not Kirk, I'm out. There's there's no

575
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,439
Speaker 1: quarterback on that Like again, as about as Kirk is,

576
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,480
Speaker 1: this is one one o'clock in the afternoon game at home.

577
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,600
Speaker 1: This is when we bet Kirk Cousins. So to me,

578
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 1: if this is Kirk Cousins, you're getting a fantastic number

579
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:11,120
Speaker 1: right now. Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars Coats point favorites. Now, Chad,

580
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:12,879
Speaker 1: are you aware that these two teams are in the

581
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,440
Speaker 1: same division? I am? Are you aware that every year

582
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 1: the Colts have to go play in Jacksonville? I am?

583
00:27:20,400 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 1: When is the last time you think the Colts one

584
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 1: in Jacksonville? Oh? Goodness? Two thousand and twelve? Close? Wow? Yeah,

585
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 1: So last year the jack went one in fifteen, their

586
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 1: one win at home week one against the Colts. Even

587
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 1: when the even the Jaguars are awful, they somehow always

588
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 1: beat the Colts. Uh. I don't know what to do

589
00:27:42,520 --> 00:27:44,680
Speaker 1: with this number. I wanted to take the Jaguars so bad.

590
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: That's such a huge number. Um, Carson Wentz, that's what,

591
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,040
Speaker 1: like you said, I hate that we took that number. Um.

592
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 1: I hate that we took the Colts last week. We

593
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,080
Speaker 1: should have known he's coming off COVID with COVID like

594
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 1: he still had COVID. Everyone knows that he still COVID.

595
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:00,600
Speaker 1: We talked about the NFL sold there, so they they're

596
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 1: they just want to get the best players on the

597
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 1: field so no one can complain about anything. And we

598
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:09,400
Speaker 1: saw Carson. The guy was fatigued. He was what one

599
00:28:09,480 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 1: of eight, one of nine of his first nine passes.

600
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 1: He was just bad. So I don't know what to

601
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:16,919
Speaker 1: do with this. I just want to take the Jaguars.

602
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 1: I get it. Like there, They're one of the worst

603
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 1: football teams bar none. This season, They've been awful from

604
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,040
Speaker 1: start to finish. Um who would have thought they'd be

605
00:28:27,040 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 1: worse since Erman's left. Since Erman's left, they've honestly been worse.

606
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence has been worse. I I can't remember last

607
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 1: time we've had a prospect like him. Like again, people

608
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 1: compared to him to Andrew Luck, to Peyton Manning, a

609
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: sure can't miss guy. And I watched his film and

610
00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:47,720
Speaker 1: I kind of saw what they were talking about. Again,

611
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,280
Speaker 1: he was a freshman. He beat Alabama with Clemson in

612
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 1: the national title game. Like that's I can't ever look

613
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. This kid clearly has moxie. He's

614
00:28:56,800 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 1: fucking broken. They're they're broken team. They every time he

615
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 1: dropped back against the Patriots, I feel like anyone that

616
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 1: was watching the game thought he was gonna throw a

617
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:07,479
Speaker 1: pick every time, and he was. I don't know how

618
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: many finished the game with, but he had a bunch

619
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 1: of drops by that Patriots defense that he got lucky on.

620
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 1: So I don't know what to really do with this game.

621
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 1: It's at fifteen and a half. I mean, Chad always

622
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 1: saw we played the numbers here. Um. One of my

623
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 1: favorite games from last week was that Atlanta Bills game.

624
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 1: I mean, you both bet Atlanta. I think it was

625
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 1: at fourteen, fourteen and a half, Atlanta right on fourteen. Again,

626
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 1: none of this ship makes sense. The final scores fifteen,

627
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,720
Speaker 1: none of it makes sense. I'll play the number and

628
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 1: I'll play the value. I'll take the Jaguars a fifteen

629
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 1: and a half. But I just can't make this one

630
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 1: of my best bets this week because I just have

631
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:46,680
Speaker 1: no real feel for And now a word from our

632
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 1: friends at Fandel. The NFL playoffs are almost here, and

633
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 1: to help you stay on top of the action, Vandel

634
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 1: Sports Book is giving you a ten dollar bonus when

635
00:29:55,880 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 1: you placed twenty dollars in same game parlay bets on

636
00:30:00,320 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 1: a single game, or spread your bets out across multiple matchups.

637
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:06,800
Speaker 1: It's up to you. As long as you've got twenty

638
00:30:06,840 --> 00:30:08,920
Speaker 1: bucks in same game parlays during the same week of

639
00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:12,800
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658
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,960
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663
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 1: the Tennessee Red Line one eight hundred eight eight nine

664
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 1: nine seven eight nine or visit one eight hundred gambler

665
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. The Packers minus two against

666
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 1: the Lions, Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions. Do we

667
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 1: know Aaron Rodgers isn't playing already? Has that been announced?

668
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 1: So with the word on the street, he'll he'll play.

669
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 1: Or Davante Adams is gonna play early on just to

670
00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:05,960
Speaker 1: break some records and then they'll come out of the game.

671
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 1: So if we need more info on if you were

672
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 1: like me, you like the lines. I would just wait

673
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 1: you either you either can get them live at a discount.

674
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 1: Once the game starts and Rogers plays a little bit,

675
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 1: you'll get a better number once we know um that

676
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 1: he is gonna play. Maybe this movement back up, because

677
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 1: I believe it's eleven and a half on the look ahead.

678
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: Now it's down to two two and a half. Just wait,

679
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 1: you've already missed all the value. I love the lines

680
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 1: last week, and they broke my heart and I'll have

681
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:38,400
Speaker 1: to do it again. I just can't quit the lines.

682
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 1: That was a public dog though. As soon as as

683
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 1: soon as Robel said on our show that it was

684
00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: like eight of the money eighty five percent the bests

685
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 1: was on the lines, I was like, why did I

686
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 1: just give out the lines on the action app? New

687
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: York Jets at Buffalo Bills? The Jets are sixteen and

688
00:32:53,560 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 1: a half point underdogs at the Bills. Do you have

689
00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,640
Speaker 1: the numbers in front of you? What the betting public

690
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 1: is doing when this game eighty eight betting on the Jets,

691
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 1: ninety nine percent of the money is on the Bills.

692
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 1: So this is a weird, weird number. Like when I

693
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: first saw this one, I thought it was the same

694
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 1: exact thing I felt last week with Houston and the

695
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,080
Speaker 1: forty nine ers. And whenever big dogs cover or went

696
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 1: out right, the public will back them again the following week.

697
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 1: So the Jets that was a no sweat cover should

698
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: have went out right again. It was fourth and two.

699
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 1: They went for it because if they got that first down,

700
00:33:27,760 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: that game is over. Like Tom Brady ain't getting the

701
00:33:30,160 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 1: ball back then work out from his coin flip game.

702
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 1: I think you're paying for what the Jets did last

703
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 1: week instead of looking at this week. We got a

704
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: young kid. Wilson played a fantastic game. We've seen that

705
00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:46,000
Speaker 1: time and time again with these rookie quarterbacks. They play well,

706
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 1: the next week, they lay in next it's it's what

707
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:49,960
Speaker 1: it is. That's why everyone says you just throughout the

708
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 1: rookie year, because it's impossible really gage these rookie quarterbacks.

709
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 1: You don't know how they're gonna be a week the week.

710
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 1: So I guess the value you could say is that

711
00:33:58,000 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 1: it's on the Jets because the key number at sevent.

712
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 1: But I'll be on the bills. I made this number twenty.

713
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 1: Thank you're getting value right now on the bills. But

714
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 1: I don't know if the Bills are playing, I don't

715
00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:11,080
Speaker 1: know what their incentive is. Is there still a chance

716
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 1: they can get the one seed? I have no idea

717
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 1: what there what their incentive is. They need to they

718
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 1: need to win to win the a f C East,

719
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:23,240
Speaker 1: so so that might be it. So yeah, the Pages

720
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 1: still have a chance because I guess why they're both

721
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:28,760
Speaker 1: ten and six. There you go, So yeah, I guess

722
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 1: that's that's the motivation that I was looking for on

723
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: the Bills. But just when I first saw this number,

724
00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,799
Speaker 1: just it just stunk to me. Um, I just didn't

725
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 1: get why they make it way higher. And when I

726
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:40,399
Speaker 1: looked at the action app, I saw all the betting

727
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 1: tickets coming in on the Jets. It makes sense the

728
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 1: public one money off them, they're just going to roll

729
00:34:44,800 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 1: it over until this week. So yeah, fishy line, but

730
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 1: I'll take Bills. That's minus seventeen. We haven't pinpointed the

731
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 1: upset you've been foreshadowing. Yeah, it's coming, don't you worry.

732
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 1: It's gross, so don't worry. The next game up is

733
00:34:58,600 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons. This line opened

734
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:07,239
Speaker 1: at the Falcons at one and a half. It's now

735
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 1: up to Saints minus four and a half. I'm still

736
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:12,760
Speaker 1: tempted to take the Saints at minus four and a half.

737
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 1: You've little bit foxhold. People, Come on, Atlanta, let's clide

738
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 1: down into the foxhole. You gotta do it, you gotta.

739
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 1: I know this is painful. I feel bad we have

740
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: to end the season this way, but well, listen, we're

741
00:35:32,200 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 1: in Atlanta Falcon's podcast. We've said we've said it from

742
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 1: the beginning of the year. Yeah, that's true. I mean

743
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: they I told you they're the worst team ever um

744
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 1: Statistically this season, they somehow almost had a winning record

745
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:46,359
Speaker 1: if they would have won last week then the year.

746
00:35:46,440 --> 00:35:50,160
Speaker 1: So I just loved again. We talked about these situation

747
00:35:50,200 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 1: where they're the Saints need to win to make the playoffs.

748
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: Saints haven't been good all year, they're on the road,

749
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 1: they're playing against an Atlantic team that yeah, they might

750
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 1: be shipped. But this line's moved too much. Signs moved

751
00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 1: this much just because the Saints won last week in

752
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:06,919
Speaker 1: Atlanta lost and they look terrible doing so I'm taking

753
00:36:06,920 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 1: a lamp taking Atlanta be the spoiler. I'll take their

754
00:36:09,080 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 1: money line. I'll take the plus four and a half

755
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 1: steel gross doing it but both these teams suck. Um,

756
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 1: you're giving me points to the home team. I'll take

757
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:21,759
Speaker 1: this every time. The problem is this Falcons team has

758
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: been really bad against good teams. I mean that has

759
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 1: been a demonstrable trend. Right they are like oh and

760
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 1: seven playing against um, really good teams and something like

761
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 1: seven and two playing against bad teams. We don't know

762
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 1: what the Saints are. I mean this decides if they're

763
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 1: good or not. Technically we have no idea. But now

764
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 1: that's fair. I just feel like the lines move too much.

765
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 1: You're getting the value on this Atlanta team right now.

766
00:36:47,239 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: If I'm looking at this, the only games that we

767
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:53,360
Speaker 1: think we really really like the Bill's minds sixteen and

768
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 1: a half and the Falcons plus four and a half.

769
00:36:57,000 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 1: We're a wait and see. Uh, the Browns, We're a

770
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: wait and see on the Steelers. Where leaning towards the Texans.

771
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,719
Speaker 1: We're leaning towards Washington football team. We're a wait and

772
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,239
Speaker 1: see on the Vikings. Yeah, I mean I told you

773
00:37:11,280 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 1: I only made four bets out of sixteen games. Well,

774
00:37:14,160 --> 00:37:16,719
Speaker 1: who the funk were the bets on? I mean, you're

775
00:37:16,719 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 1: getting their sweetheart, you're getting well one of the better

776
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 1: be the Falcons and the fucking Bills. I bet Atlanta okay,

777
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:30,600
Speaker 1: San Francisco forty Niners at Los Angeles Rams. The Rams

778
00:37:30,600 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 1: are four point favorites. This is interesting of the bets

779
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:38,479
Speaker 1: coming in on the forty Niners, about the money coming

780
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:41,719
Speaker 1: in on the Rams, and I'm part of that. This

781
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 1: is one of the best games I bet. I love

782
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:48,560
Speaker 1: the Rams uh tray lance on the road and what

783
00:37:48,680 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 1: we could honestly call a playoff game. The Rams need

784
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:55,880
Speaker 1: this game technically, Um, they could still somehow move up

785
00:37:55,880 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: in the standings. This four in ice team, I got it.

786
00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 1: They need this game to make the playoff trailance just

787
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:03,560
Speaker 1: is you just ain't ready. Like they were losing seven

788
00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:06,640
Speaker 1: to three against Houston at home, cal Shan made the

789
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:09,359
Speaker 1: playbook way simpler. In the second half. They were able

790
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:11,400
Speaker 1: to kind of ball control, running the ball, and then

791
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 1: they took the took the ball. You know what was it?

792
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 1: Twenty three to seven? I believe the final was something

793
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:18,920
Speaker 1: like that. Um, it was just a much closer game

794
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 1: than people realize. This Rams team, we talked last week

795
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 1: they were due to lose that kind of lose that

796
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 1: game against the Ravens. I I hate that. I went

797
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 1: against my instincts on that one where I was all

798
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:32,880
Speaker 1: over the Ravens, UM. But once before the game started,

799
00:38:32,880 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 1: I was just like, Okay, Lamar is out. They're playing

800
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 1: this back up. There's still there's value on the seven

801
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 1: for the Ravens. But I thought there was value on

802
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 1: the Rams, like the Rams will be able to keep

803
00:38:41,440 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 1: it closely, they were still gonna cover that number. What

804
00:38:43,680 --> 00:38:45,440
Speaker 1: was I wrong? They got really lucky to the end

805
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 1: of that game to win that game outright. So looking

806
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:51,040
Speaker 1: at this game, so's just a nice get right spot

807
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 1: for this Rams team. UM. Historically the fourty niners have

808
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:59,800
Speaker 1: owned the Rams, just going off the numbers. Usually this

809
00:38:59,840 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: games always going towards this four team, going against the

810
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:05,960
Speaker 1: grain a little bit here taking this Rams team. But

811
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:07,840
Speaker 1: I just have to go by the simplest fact that

812
00:39:08,320 --> 00:39:11,200
Speaker 1: it's Trey Lance on the road against you know, a

813
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:14,760
Speaker 1: top ten defense. I gotta take the Rams in this position,

814
00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 1: especially for giving me a number like four. That's just

815
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:20,000
Speaker 1: a key number. So to me, if this was six,

816
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 1: six and a half, I'd start thinking about but it's

817
00:39:23,120 --> 00:39:25,640
Speaker 1: still at the low four. I'll take the four of

818
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:29,520
Speaker 1: the Rams. Is this a Simon says game No, you're again.

819
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 1: You're gonna hate. You're gonna hate the game that I

820
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 1: really liked this week. All right, all right, I like

821
00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:37,160
Speaker 1: the Rams. Bet. That is one I will bet right away.

822
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:42,919
Speaker 1: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins. The Patriots seven point

823
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:46,800
Speaker 1: favorites at the Dolphins. I mean, I'm not making this,

824
00:39:46,880 --> 00:39:49,800
Speaker 1: Simon says, because I'm even grosser pick. But give it

825
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,120
Speaker 1: to me. Give me the Dolphins, give me the Dolphins moneyline.

826
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 1: I love this one so much. Who's gonna be bet

827
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 1: in the Dolphins, No one, just professionals. It's such a

828
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 1: pro number. They win fifty to three over the Jaguars

829
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 1: the Patriots last week. You're never gonna find that bigger

830
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 1: head team right now than the Patriots. They're feeling good man.

831
00:40:08,880 --> 00:40:11,879
Speaker 1: The Dolphins nothing to play for. I think or think

832
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:15,040
Speaker 1: they could still make the playoffs. We know that it's

833
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 1: not gonna happen. They need like four of their teams

834
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 1: to lose. They're playing spoiler. And what year was it

835
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 1: was seventeen um. The Patriots went down there and they

836
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 1: were like a fifteen point fourteen point favorite over this

837
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 1: nothing Miami team in Miami. One on that was like

838
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:37,000
Speaker 1: a punter kickoff or something with trying to make Yeah,

839
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 1: Gron tried to make the tackle at the back of

840
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 1: the end zone and you looked like Frankenstein. All the

841
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 1: springs and sockets are shooting off of me. He's trying

842
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 1: to make a cut because this old bido is broken.

843
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 1: I take Miami every time no one one goes down there.

844
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,920
Speaker 1: I take Miami. It's just for some reason, they just

845
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: don't play well down there. So you could be upset

846
00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 1: because of maybe all burn us this year. I'm telling

847
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 1: you the rest of your lives, you always take the

848
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 1: Dolphins at home, them late in the season against the

849
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 1: Patriots team. They just always have left down games. So

850
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:07,839
Speaker 1: it would be again I try to hide my hate

851
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:10,319
Speaker 1: for the Patriots, it would be amazing if they lost

852
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 1: this game and didn't make the playoffs after their fans

853
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 1: touting so hard all season how great they were. Are

854
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:17,879
Speaker 1: they fixed in a year? Have they don't? Then miss

855
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,719
Speaker 1: time Brady. You're gonna miss Tom Brady, especially a game

856
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:23,399
Speaker 1: like this. So giving the Dolphins, given the Dolphins money line,

857
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 1: Oh that's too good, too good. You're not wrong, by

858
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 1: the way, Yeah, no, it's it's such a pro game,

859
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:34,720
Speaker 1: like no one's No one's gonna be taking the Dolphins.

860
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals. There are six and a

861
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,920
Speaker 1: half point underdogs. Not as big as you think this is.

862
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:46,440
Speaker 1: This is a pros Joe's game right now. As much

863
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,960
Speaker 1: as uh Matt Mitchell would like it not to be,

864
00:41:50,280 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 1: the bets on the Seahawks the money on the Cardinals. Honestly,

865
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: I would just take the Seahawks here. It's a divisional game.

866
00:42:00,000 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 1: I made this line four scaring the ship at me.

867
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 1: That's moved that much up to six and a half

868
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 1: because I believe it was five four and a half

869
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:08,879
Speaker 1: and now it's shot awa up to six and a half.

870
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 1: It's never good. That's that's not moving because of the public.

871
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:13,960
Speaker 1: It's moving because of our programs come in on that.

872
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:16,000
Speaker 1: So maybe I'll wait and see on that one. But

873
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 1: I did like the Seahawks coming in. I thought that

874
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 1: was a good number for them. Yeah, let's hold off

875
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,799
Speaker 1: on that. We can see if that's a sharp call.

876
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:29,959
Speaker 1: On Thursday, Oh my god, Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

877
00:42:30,480 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 1: There's only two games left and you're basically gonna say, hey,

878
00:42:34,320 --> 00:42:38,240
Speaker 1: take the Panthers plus eight against the Buccaneers. Simon says,

879
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 1: sign do it? Why would you do that? I love it.

880
00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,799
Speaker 1: I love this game so much. I don't know, hanging

881
00:42:57,840 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 1: from a couple of little barties that the Bucks are

882
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:02,080
Speaker 1: going be sitting guys and resting guys, so they're not

883
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 1: gonna be trying this game. And it's the rare opportunity

884
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 1: to take a Carolina Panther team that no one I

885
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:11,080
Speaker 1: don't know, No, no one's gonna betting this number. I'm

886
00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 1: just grabbing it early now, just in case the news

887
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 1: does come out that the rumors are true that Tom's

888
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 1: not playing. A bunch of their starters aren't playing. They're

889
00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:20,359
Speaker 1: they're just gonna throw this game away before they get

890
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:22,799
Speaker 1: it ready to the playoff front. So I think we're

891
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:24,840
Speaker 1: getting a good number. I already saw that Carolina is

892
00:43:24,840 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 1: playing their starters, they're trying to win. Their coach is

893
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 1: an idiot. Take take the plus eight now, that's why

894
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,960
Speaker 1: I'm giving out as my Simon says, but uh, explain

895
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:37,520
Speaker 1: the process, Tell tell me how this works. It's Tuesday afternoon.

896
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:41,480
Speaker 1: What does that mean? You're hearing from some birdie's like

897
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,399
Speaker 1: guys talk yester like I talked to two different people

898
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 1: yesterday and both of them. First games that brought up

899
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:50,000
Speaker 1: was Carolina. So that immediately sends off the alarms and

900
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:51,320
Speaker 1: I go, all right, what are you hearing? They go,

901
00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 1: well hearing the Bucks are gonna be sitting starters. They're

902
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,640
Speaker 1: not playing for anything. Tom's not gonna play, Mike Evans

903
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 1: isn't playing that. We had to take that information to

904
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:03,839
Speaker 1: use it. I mean, Carolina they're bad. We talked all year.

905
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 1: Their defense isn't that terrible. So if it's gonna be

906
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 1: backups for the Bucks going against the starters of Carolina,

907
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 1: I make this line four. It's eight. I'm getting four

908
00:44:13,640 --> 00:44:15,240
Speaker 1: free points. That's why I want to get out Carolina

909
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 1: give out their money line. It's just too many points

910
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:21,759
Speaker 1: to be given up. Um. I I really like to

911
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:23,840
Speaker 1: back these kind of teams in Carolina because I'm just

912
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 1: worried about like we talked about, they could have quit

913
00:44:26,120 --> 00:44:28,400
Speaker 1: on the season. I mean, they've shown nothing in these

914
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 1: last couple of weeks. But it's just a rapportunity. We're

915
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:33,240
Speaker 1: getting a Bucaneers team now. They're looking towards the playoffs.

916
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:35,239
Speaker 1: They don't really care about this week. They're just trying

917
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 1: to get healthy to get right before the playoff runs.

918
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:39,840
Speaker 1: So I do think you're getting good, good free points

919
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:43,759
Speaker 1: in this matchup. I mean, this line wasn't ten. So

920
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 1: and in the window that you're talking about is when

921
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:50,600
Speaker 1: the line moved from ten to eight. Yeah. Again, these

922
00:44:50,640 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 1: guys are hearing rumors. I wish I had those kind

923
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:54,399
Speaker 1: of connects, but I just haven't been the business that long.

924
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 1: So my connects are these guys. So if they're getting

925
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:00,080
Speaker 1: the info, usually info is really good, I'm gonna at

926
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 1: an infant right bet with it. So again, these are

927
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 1: I've only bet four games. This is one of them. Uh,

928
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:07,360
Speaker 1: this is one of these I bet right away. I

929
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 1: thought it was higher than that. It might have been

930
00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 1: eleven or twelve in some books. Now it's back down,

931
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 1: Like he said, it got down to ten. Now it's

932
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:14,840
Speaker 1: down to eight. I can see it keep dropping. His

933
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 1: more rumors keep leaking out. If I'm doing the math,

934
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:20,320
Speaker 1: hea right, you bet the Panthers, the Rams, the Falcons,

935
00:45:20,360 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 1: and the Dolphins. Those are the four I know. I

936
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 1: try explain to people at the time what I do.

937
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:28,839
Speaker 1: It's fun, but it's not fun. My three biggest bets

938
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:32,920
Speaker 1: last week we're on Zach Wilson pin a Key and

939
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 1: Trey Lance. Those are my three biggest bets. You want

940
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:38,640
Speaker 1: to make a living betting on two rookie quarterbacks and

941
00:45:38,880 --> 00:45:42,359
Speaker 1: an undrafted second year player, This is how you make

942
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 1: your money. This is what I do. Chat Los Angeles

943
00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:49,719
Speaker 1: Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders. Should we bet the tie

944
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 1: for the Chargers and the Raiders? Who if they do tie,

945
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 1: if the Colts lose, both make the playoffs. Chargers are

946
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorites right now. If you're

947
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:00,920
Speaker 1: trying to find who doesn't who never played sports growing up,

948
00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 1: just go online and look up people that were talking

949
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:04,839
Speaker 1: about how both these teams should play for a tie

950
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:07,319
Speaker 1: and how that's a good bet. That's the easiest way

951
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:08,839
Speaker 1: to spot someone that never played a sport in their

952
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 1: entire life talking about the highest level competition. What are

953
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 1: we doing here? You think these teams are just gonna

954
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 1: kneel down so both of them can make the playoffs?

955
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 1: Bizarre world. I don't follow that many people on Twitter,

956
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 1: but more than five different people posted about this, and

957
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:24,200
Speaker 1: I was just like, what is happening? Who? Who would

958
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 1: bet on a game like this? The end of the tie.

959
00:46:26,560 --> 00:46:28,160
Speaker 1: I don't care what the value is it's just not

960
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:31,239
Speaker 1: worth it. Smart line by the books. They hung it

961
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 1: three or they hung in two and a half maybe,

962
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:35,800
Speaker 1: and it got bet up to three UM for this

963
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,839
Speaker 1: Chargers team. That's when I make the line. I make

964
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:42,200
Speaker 1: them a home dog with the Raiders. Again, if I

965
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 1: wasn't so in all in on Greble being coach of

966
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,320
Speaker 1: the Year, I don't mind giving it to the Raiders.

967
00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 1: I mean, he took over what I don't even remember

968
00:46:49,040 --> 00:46:52,840
Speaker 1: a week he took over for Growden. But I I

969
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:56,040
Speaker 1: wrote them off like they had Growden the racist get

970
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 1: kicked out and then they had a player kill someone

971
00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:01,120
Speaker 1: in a car accident. It just a disaster season for

972
00:47:01,200 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 1: this Raiders team. All they got to do is win

973
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 1: this game to make the playoffs. That's truly incredible. So

974
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 1: to me, feel good story taking the value I made

975
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:12,800
Speaker 1: this line three. If I make a line a certain number,

976
00:47:13,560 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 1: I'm usually gonna go with the dog. And if it's

977
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 1: unless it's the home team, they all kind of favorite.

978
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,800
Speaker 1: The go with the favorite. In this position, they're the

979
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 1: home team, they're the home dog. I gotta take Las

980
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 1: Vegas here at plus three. So again, a bunch of

981
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:27,840
Speaker 1: people argue about different games that should have made for

982
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 1: this time slot. I do think this is the best

983
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 1: game these two teams. They've played well all season. Their

984
00:47:33,080 --> 00:47:36,320
Speaker 1: division was crazy y'all season. I like the NFL selected

985
00:47:36,360 --> 00:47:38,759
Speaker 1: these two to end the season with the Chargers. They

986
00:47:38,840 --> 00:47:41,279
Speaker 1: probably made that this number just because they know the

987
00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:44,719
Speaker 1: public will go towards the Chargers. Like Herbert that's the

988
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 1: fun story, right, him making the playoffs. So I'm like,

989
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 1: in my head, I'm trying to think about why is

990
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 1: this number minus three? And you know it could because

991
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:53,399
Speaker 1: Boss is coming back or that you know they've gotten

992
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:55,440
Speaker 1: they're getting guys back off the COVID list, or they're

993
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 1: getting healthy. But you know they could be getting Whilder

994
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 1: back for Las Vegas here, Like that's a big yeah,

995
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 1: that's the big, big piece of that offense. So yeah,

996
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 1: I'll take the plus three. But again, this is one

997
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:07,960
Speaker 1: of my best bets. But just looking at on paper,

998
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 1: I like that value of the plus three. It's interesting.

999
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:13,480
Speaker 1: The Raiders are one of those teams this year we've

1000
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:18,400
Speaker 1: talked about sort of the the underdog bounce and seeing

1001
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:21,919
Speaker 1: it this past week with the Jets. Right, you get

1002
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 1: that inflated number and you become a public dog. The

1003
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 1: next week. The Raiders are never a public dog every

1004
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:31,360
Speaker 1: single week. They It's almost like they're started from scratch

1005
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 1: and they're always the underdog no matter what the spot.

1006
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 1: They had another player arrested overnight for d w Y

1007
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:44,239
Speaker 1: Ricky cornerbacks dine package for them to a big deal.

1008
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 1: We've narrowed it down somehow, Like with all these games

1009
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:49,120
Speaker 1: that we didn't know what the fun was going on,

1010
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 1: we still narrowed it down to four or five games

1011
00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:54,360
Speaker 1: that we think could be some of our favorites that

1012
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 1: we feel pretty good about. Again, caution, wait, we know

1013
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 1: we're gonna bet Pan. There's rams Falcons Dolphins today doing

1014
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 1: it right now. But a lot of these games you

1015
00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 1: want to wait and see how the market is moving,

1016
00:49:07,560 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 1: how COVID is impacting, who will be starting, who will

1017
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:14,400
Speaker 1: be sitting, based on playoffs, scenarios, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. Are

1018
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:19,720
Speaker 1: Simon says Panthers plus eight our foxhold the Falcons plus

1019
00:49:19,960 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 1: four and a half. Save save your bankroll. It's we're

1020
00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:24,880
Speaker 1: gonna get so much more information. You're gonna be to

1021
00:49:24,880 --> 00:49:26,759
Speaker 1: make so much more money with the better information that

1022
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 1: like right now, I do like those bets that I've made.

1023
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 1: It's just we're kind of shooting the dark here. It's

1024
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:34,320
Speaker 1: we're we're just everyone else. We're waiting on the information

1025
00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 1: because so much can change from now just till Thursday.

1026
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 1: So just be careful with what bet you're making. All right,

1027
00:49:40,040 --> 00:49:43,560
Speaker 1: let's do some scooch through. Let when all hope is lost,

1028
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 1: all that left is relief. Let's plays roulette. You go first.

1029
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:55,480
Speaker 1: We both won last week, but I think you were

1030
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 1: carrying over from a couple of weeks of winning. So

1031
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:03,400
Speaker 1: I mean, just absolutely he year when left scot let Heater. Unfortunately,

1032
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 1: Mondays are gone. That's what's been good to me last

1033
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 1: two weeks. I've been taking these Monday Dogs. I'll go

1034
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 1: with Uh. If you don't take the Panthers, you're a coward.

1035
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: I'm like thinking, I mean, there'd be them or Atlanta.

1036
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:17,320
Speaker 1: That's where I'm stuck in between. I'll go. I'll go

1037
00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:20,360
Speaker 1: Atlanta because at least I know for all I know

1038
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:23,560
Speaker 1: on Tuesday exactly who's playing. I'm gonna go Atlanta. All right,

1039
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:26,279
Speaker 1: you go Atlanta. I'm glad. You know why? Tell me

1040
00:50:26,840 --> 00:50:30,880
Speaker 1: I wanted to take the Rams. That's fair, It's it's

1041
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:32,800
Speaker 1: gonna be scary for you having Stafford as your scutu

1042
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:36,279
Speaker 1: left though, I'm excited about it. Matthew Stafford wants to

1043
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 1: play in games that means something. This is his opportunity.

1044
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:44,400
Speaker 1: Prove it. Prove it. Matthew Stafford, at least like a

1045
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 1: second time career, will be in the playoffs. Yeah, it's exciting,

1046
00:50:47,600 --> 00:50:50,480
Speaker 1: all right. This has been the favorite from the Volume

1047
00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:53,800
Speaker 1: podcast Network. You can download it from Apple Podcasts, from Spotify.

1048
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 1: You can subscribe for both places. You can review in

1049
00:50:56,680 --> 00:50:58,759
Speaker 1: both places. We don't care what the funk you say

1050
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:01,200
Speaker 1: in the reviews. We like them to be nice, they

1051
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:04,799
Speaker 1: can be critical. Feedback is a gift. We're heading into

1052
00:51:04,840 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 1: review season at the Action Network. All this will be

1053
00:51:08,200 --> 00:51:11,440
Speaker 1: fed back to Simon as part of his year end review.

1054
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 1: All we ask is that you give us five stars.

1055
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:16,640
Speaker 1: We will be back on Thursday. We will give out

1056
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 1: the money line parlay. We will narrow it down until

1057
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 1: next time for Simon Hunter. For our producer, Matt Mitchell,

1058
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Speaker 1: I am Chad Noman. I love you