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Speaker 1: good evening, Welcome to our State of the Union live
Speaker 1: stream with the dream team that we have assembled here.
Speaker 1: What do we have today, crystol Indeed, we do have
Speaker 1: a great program for you this evening. All right. So,
Speaker 1: as you guys know, President is preparing to give his
Speaker 1: annual State of the Union addressed to Congress. A few
Speaker 1: things that are different this year. I mean, the big
Speaker 1: thing is that we have Kevin McCarthy now in a
Speaker 1: Speaker of the House, so visually he'll be there instead
Speaker 1: of Nancy Pelosi, signal of the fact that it is
Speaker 1: a different time in Washington. And frankly, all of the
Speaker 1: things that he's going to lay out that he would
Speaker 1: theoretically want to get done are obviously not going to
Speaker 1: get done because of that reality. But we're going to
Speaker 1: take a look at some things we have pulled for
Speaker 1: you about the actual state of the economy, in particular
Speaker 1: because he's going to lead a lot into that, and
Speaker 1: also the political landscape because in a lot of ways,
Speaker 1: this is kind of his launch for his reelection. He's
Speaker 1: not going to officially launch till March or April, but
Speaker 1: this is the beginning of Joe Biden making the case
Speaker 1: for what he's done, what he wants to do going forward,
Speaker 1: and also you know, what he thinks needs to be
Speaker 1: pushed back on for the Republicans. So we are joined
Speaker 1: by the wonderful Marshall and the wonderful Kyle. Gentlemen, welcome. Hey,
Speaker 1: me and Marshall did not plan our outfits to look
Speaker 1: as really good. I agree, I think we look good.
Speaker 1: I think I think watchers are breaking what's we Notice
Speaker 1: that Kyle has been really stepping up since that first episode.
Speaker 1: You're morphing into Sager and I'm looking forward to the
Speaker 1: tie next time. Yeah, what happened to the tie first?
Speaker 1: What was the first episode? Yeah? What was I wearing
Speaker 1: drama when we when we unveiled the first breaking points
Speaker 1: like live recording back in Geez twenty twenty one. So look,
Speaker 1: I think there's something we could all do and learn
Speaker 1: from each other. Oh wowrobably wearing like pajamas plants or
Speaker 1: I mean, he's like, why don't get you on your pants.
Speaker 1: I don't want to give away the game here, but
Speaker 1: he is wearing sweatpants and slippers right now, so don't
Speaker 1: blow my spot up. But one time the sweatpants actually
Speaker 1: matched the jacket, and here you are raining on everybody's prea.
Speaker 1: Be careful, Kyle, because on our set you can actually
Speaker 1: see the upper links of your truth. But just trying
Speaker 1: to be transparent, that's all right. I didn't want I
Speaker 1: didn't want people to think I'd changed you. You know,
Speaker 1: you're still the same guy. I actually have no pants
Speaker 1: on right now, but he's got the celter next to him,
Speaker 1: so that's how you know that things are a little
Speaker 1: bit different, all right, Okay. State of the Union, as
Speaker 1: chrissel mentioned, this is something where the president is basically
Speaker 1: running for re election. I actually did not know this,
Speaker 1: and I'm actually curious what you guys think of this.
Speaker 1: I don't really know why, but a lot of people
Speaker 1: watched the State of the Union, so I was looking
Speaker 1: at twenty twenty two data for some of the most
Speaker 1: watched programming in the United States top one hundred. Vast
Speaker 1: majority of it was the NFL unsurprisingly or it was
Speaker 1: almost all sporting events, the only one, and it was
Speaker 1: actually within the top fifty state of the Union. Tens
Speaker 1: of millions of people watch and actually tune into this,
Speaker 1: probably more so than when President Biden eventually will announce
Speaker 1: his reelection. So this is his case, and he's running
Speaker 1: on the economy. So one of the things that we pulled,
Speaker 1: and this is a very important metric as to how
Speaker 1: exactly he's talking right now. Let's go and put our
Speaker 1: first element up here on the screen, guys. A one
Speaker 1: is the state of the US economy right now. I
Speaker 1: don't think there's ever been a weirder economy to actually discuss,
Speaker 1: which is the jobs report came in red hot, five
Speaker 1: hundred and seventeen thousand jobs added in January. They completely
Speaker 1: crushed the estimates. We have a fifty three year low
Speaker 1: of unemployment, We have modest real wage growth. We have
Speaker 1: changed from a zero interest rate environment. Social Security checks
Speaker 1: went up. However, they went up because of inflation. And
Speaker 1: that's the downside to this entire discussion, which is that
Speaker 1: people are upset about the state of the economy in
Speaker 1: some ways, they've never felt worse, and we'll get to that.
Speaker 1: And in general, there's a sense of malays while all
Speaker 1: of the top line metrics are really good. So I
Speaker 1: really we've struggled with this a lot here on the show,
Speaker 1: which is, how do you describe that, you know, eggs
Speaker 1: are seven dollars, but you know people have got jobs,
Speaker 1: So what is that? What type of economy is that?
Speaker 1: And how do you how does a president relay that
Speaker 1: to the American people? Marshall, why don't you pick that
Speaker 1: one up because I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I think the argument that they're going to order what
Speaker 1: we make here is that things were at their worst
Speaker 1: probably last summer, and since then we've seen and this
Speaker 1: is me echoing what a different version of Biden would
Speaker 1: be saying on fifteen different levels. But things have just
Speaker 1: gotten better and they're going to keep getting better, and
Speaker 1: we should have faith in the president that that message
Speaker 1: is going to work. That's basically I think what they're
Speaker 1: going to want to get from folks, because if you
Speaker 1: just really see with those midterm results, Republicans just came
Speaker 1: in thinking that the economic message was going to be
Speaker 1: particularly successful, that malaise Sagrey you reference, was going to
Speaker 1: translate into the ballot box, and it really didn't. So
Speaker 1: I think they're just betting that the next two years
Speaker 1: going to follow the pattern this September to November did. Yeah,
Speaker 1: But I feel like they might be learning the wrong
Speaker 1: lesson for that, because I don't think that the midterms
Speaker 1: were really a referendum, Like to the extent that they
Speaker 1: outperformed expectations, which no doubt about it, they definitely did,
Speaker 1: and to the extent that Republicans underperformed expectations, I don't
Speaker 1: know that they really reflected that people felt great about
Speaker 1: how the economy was going, because we just haven't seen
Speaker 1: that data reflected anywhere. I mean, let's go and put
Speaker 1: the next element up on the screen. You have record
Speaker 1: numbers of Americans saying that they are worse off under
Speaker 1: Joe Biden economically. That's not a good sign. You've got
Speaker 1: plenty of people who are saying we're on the wrong track.
Speaker 1: You have people feeling like we're headed into a recession
Speaker 1: or we're already in a recession. I just saw numbers
Speaker 1: today about everybody spending down like whatever savings they were
Speaker 1: able to accumulate during the pandemic from pandemic relief programs,
Speaker 1: they're spending all of that down. You have credit card
Speaker 1: debt going up and going up, so you might have
Speaker 1: a low unemployment number, but people are not feeling like
Speaker 1: this is a great economy. And I've always thought there's
Speaker 1: a real danger in trying to over sell something, to
Speaker 1: try to pretend like, hey, mission accomplished, we got this,
Speaker 1: it's all good, when that is not what people are
Speaker 1: feeling or experiencing in their regular lives. I mean, I
Speaker 1: actually think there's we talked about this before, but it's
Speaker 1: the bluff strategy, and I actually think there is a
Speaker 1: little bit of wisdom in that. I think that this
Speaker 1: is why you see after every state of the Union,
Speaker 1: you get a little bit of a you know, a
Speaker 1: pump in the in the approval rating five points if
Speaker 1: you're lucky, maybe ten points, and now it's temporary, doesn't
Speaker 1: last forever, but you get a little bit of a
Speaker 1: because people are looking for you know, the raw, raw cheerlead,
Speaker 1: let's go get this where America type stuff. So I
Speaker 1: think there is wisdom in that. But I agree with
Speaker 1: your point that I don't think the economy is great, Like, yeah,
Speaker 1: they're probably going to do a victory lap over these
Speaker 1: jobs numbers. But we looked at the data crystal and
Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong, But didn't we see that
Speaker 1: it was mostly like medical field and service sector jobs. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so that's what people so base. I mean, look gig
Speaker 1: economy type stuff, right, Like, people have jobs, but it's
Speaker 1: not like it used to be back in the day,
Speaker 1: where you go to you have a manufacturing job, you
Speaker 1: make a decent money, you have a pension, you have
Speaker 1: a house and a car, and maybe even a little
Speaker 1: vacation homers. It's not like that. Yeah. Well and okay,
Speaker 1: so to break down the jobs numbers a little bit,
Speaker 1: you're absolutely right that the most of the growth has
Speaker 1: been hospitality, leisure, so things that in the service economy
Speaker 1: that really went away during the pandemic that is now
Speaker 1: coming back, and so there's a lot of job growth there.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of job growth in terms of healthcare.
Speaker 1: I mean that's both in terms of like demographic trends,
Speaker 1: but also you had a lot of turnover during the
Speaker 1: pandemic in the healthcare sector as well, So that's where
Speaker 1: a lot of the growth is and you also see
Speaker 1: in terms of wages, you see the fastest growth of wages,
Speaker 1: which is still not enough, especially when you consider inflation
Speaker 1: is also at the lower end of the spectrum. But
Speaker 1: when you consider that we've gone decades without the lower
Speaker 1: end of the spectrum getting any raise whatsoever, when you
Speaker 1: consider the wage stagnation that we've had basically my entire life,
Speaker 1: it's going to take a lot more than a tiny
Speaker 1: percentage point in slightly more than inflation for people in
Speaker 1: that segment of the economy to feel like, hey, I'm good,
Speaker 1: everything is okay now. So yeah, I think it is
Speaker 1: a strange economy. I think there are things that the
Speaker 1: Biden administration can sell about what they've done so far,
Speaker 1: you know, with working across the aisle in certain instances,
Speaker 1: with the infrastructure bill, getting the Inflation Reduction Act passed.
Speaker 1: I just saw some numbers about how that has created
Speaker 1: something like one hundred thousand jobs in terms of green energy.
Speaker 1: There are things there to sell. But I think you've
Speaker 1: got a level with people and meet them where they are.
Speaker 1: And the bottom line is Americans do not feel like
Speaker 1: it is mission accomplished. They feel very unstable. They feel
Speaker 1: like they are worse off than they were previously. And
Speaker 1: if you are meeting that emotional energy and also laying
Speaker 1: out a path of Okay, here's what we have to
Speaker 1: do from there, there's no doubt that your political adversaries
Speaker 1: are going to take advantage of that opening. Yeah. For me,
Speaker 1: I think that Biden's speech is going to be all
Speaker 1: about balance. As Kyle, as you said, I mean President Obama.
Speaker 1: Essentially we have the same economy now did under Obama.
Speaker 1: Obama crawled out of two thousand and eight and then
Speaker 1: you did see some job growth, but the job growth
Speaker 1: was all in non unionized sector service economy. Wages were
Speaker 1: significantly down. That's one of the things that Mitt Romney
Speaker 1: actually ran against him. So if I'm Biden, one of
Speaker 1: the things that you want to do is, you know,
Speaker 1: you want to bluff your way a little bit. I
Speaker 1: actually think leaning into the economy would be the biggest mistake.
Speaker 1: So he's got three of the most popular things right
Speaker 1: now that are on his side. Number one is stopped
Speaker 1: the steal. And actually we have an excerpt right now
Speaker 1: from the President of what he's going to open, or
Speaker 1: at least be at the top of the speech. Quote
Speaker 1: two years ago, our democracy faced its greatest threat since
Speaker 1: the Civil War. Today, through though bruised, our democracy remains
Speaker 1: unbowed and unbroken. Now, look, I'm not saying I agree
Speaker 1: with that personally. I find a cringe that said, it
Speaker 1: would be completely undeniable to say that that message didn't
Speaker 1: resoundingly work during the mid term. So that's number one. Economically,
Speaker 1: it's not even about selling what he's done, selling what
Speaker 1: he plans to do, because we all know it's not
Speaker 1: going to happen. It's like the these people have people
Speaker 1: in their ranks who want to cut Social Security and
Speaker 1: even though inflation is up and that's why the social
Speaker 1: Security checks went up, he'd be like, you gotta raised
Speaker 1: under President Biden. Again, I'm just making clear, like politically
Speaker 1: what he should be saying. And then third is abortion. Obviously,
Speaker 1: if you have those three things and you put yourself
Speaker 1: as a ballwark against GOP extremism, specifically on stop the
Speaker 1: steal and on abortion, while contrasting yourself relentlessly with Speaker
Speaker 1: McCarthy with the Freedom Caucus on the debt ceiling, I
Speaker 1: actually think that and at the end of the day,
Speaker 1: that's the most honest, right Marshall that's all he actually
Speaker 1: can do. You can say all you want about a
Speaker 1: billionaire minimum stack. That's not going to happen. Okay, it
Speaker 1: didn't happen during the democratic unified government, is certainly not
Speaker 1: going to happen whenever we're talking about cutting social security.
Speaker 1: So an honest and a balanced version of the speech,
Speaker 1: I actually think that might land. What do you think? Yeah,
Speaker 1: And I think the two things to highlight that you
Speaker 1: really just hinted that are Biden's central political skill, which
Speaker 1: only really came into account at this period of his life.
Speaker 1: Plains while he wasn't able to become president at the
Speaker 1: earlier forty year period in his political career is against
Speaker 1: conventional wisdom. He's read the political mood of the country. So,
Speaker 1: for example, twenty nineteen, twenty twenty, his whole candidacy. Once again,
Speaker 1: this isn't a comment on how he actually governed, but
Speaker 1: his candidacy is actually was to make things normal. It's
Speaker 1: not actually about being the youngest candidates, not about being
Speaker 1: the hippus candidates, not about having the best policy quote unquote.
Speaker 1: It's just I get the sense that Americans are sick
Speaker 1: and tired of everything being crazy. So I'm just going
Speaker 1: to run as the old, reliable, conventional guy that was
Speaker 1: the right column twenty twenty. In twenty twenty two, I
Speaker 1: think all of us are on record to echo your
Speaker 1: point of Sager and arguing that, hey, the democracy is
Speaker 1: under threat thing is cringe. It wasn't just such sort
Speaker 1: of us arguing that basically the broad mainstream of both
Speaker 1: parties thought that was going to be an effective message.
Speaker 1: That was an incredibly effective message, especially in the swing states.
Speaker 1: They're going to make or break him in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: So the real thing I'm looking for tonight is is
Speaker 1: Biden going to be able to read and set up
Speaker 1: what the actual political vibe quote unquote is moving forward.
Speaker 1: Then the other thing to think about is obviously the
Speaker 1: Republican responses. Party responses in general aren't particularly important, but
Speaker 1: I think this one is going to be important in
Speaker 1: the sense that Sarah how could be Sanders newly elected
Speaker 1: governor of Arkansas and obviously former Press secretary for President Trump,
Speaker 1: she is basically representing the mainstream of the Republican Party.
Speaker 1: And if we're looking back at American politics in two
Speaker 1: thousand and eight, I think one of the most important
Speaker 1: stories has been the Republican Party's consistent inability with the
Speaker 1: exception of Trump and twenty sixteen of reading the political vibe.
Speaker 1: So you obviously have the Tea Party wins, but then
Speaker 1: that leads to Tea Party win, arrogance going into twenty
Speaker 1: twelve leads to rominy and winning the nomination that wins,
Speaker 1: That leads to Trump misreading the elector in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: and of course twenty twenty two, where Republicans thought that
Speaker 1: the inflation numbers and gas prices would be enough to
Speaker 1: win a resoundingly straightforward victory with the claims of a
Speaker 1: red wave. So the real test is going to be
Speaker 1: a confided and to actually unders could Biden and repeat
Speaker 1: what he's been able to do since basically twenty eighteen,
Speaker 1: and then we're Republicans actually read the country correctly. That's
Speaker 1: a great point. So I want to get everybody here's opinion.
Speaker 1: So we have some excerpts actually of Sarah Sanders. This
Speaker 1: is what I hate about the response. If you have
Speaker 1: an excerpt of your response and it's not a response,
Speaker 1: you know, it's just a pre plan tax speacher. It's
Speaker 1: like if you have a scripted speech that you could
Speaker 1: release before the speech. Then it's not an actual response.
Speaker 1: But all right, let's put that to the side. I'll
Speaker 1: read it for everybody. Crystal kylie war your guy's reaction.
Speaker 1: In the radical lefts America, Washington taxes you and lights
Speaker 1: your hard earned money on fire. You get crushed with
Speaker 1: high gas prices, empty grocery shells. Our children are taught
Speaker 1: to hate one another on account of their race, but
Speaker 1: not to love one another or our great country while
Speaker 1: you reap the consequences of their failures. The Biden administration
Speaker 1: seems more interested in woke fantasies than the hard reality
Speaker 1: that Americans face every day. Most Americans simply want to
Speaker 1: live their lives in freedom and peace. But we are
Speaker 1: under attack in a left wing culture war that we
Speaker 1: didn't start and we never wanted to fight. So that's
Speaker 1: what we have so far. What do you guys say,
Speaker 1: Oh boy, here we go yet. Look, the argument is
Speaker 1: never gonna land if you're trying to say that Joe
Speaker 1: Biden is woke. This is the guy who famously had gaffs,
Speaker 1: you know, before he became president. Like, Bro, you can't
Speaker 1: go into a seven eleven without seeing an Indian behind
Speaker 1: the Countery, I mean this guy was just you know,
Speaker 1: shooting from this. I will defend him on that. Okay,
Speaker 1: where is some truth? You're just all right, let's just
Speaker 1: put it to rest. You're just not gonna get him
Speaker 1: on the woke stuff. It's just not gonna happen now.
Speaker 1: On the taxes thing, I just find that point kind
Speaker 1: of funny because Republicans in the House just passed the
Speaker 1: what's called the fare tax, which is effectively a thirty
Speaker 1: percent tax of thirty percent sales tax, and that is
Speaker 1: a massively regressive tax, so it raises taxes on the
Speaker 1: poor and the working class while it cuts taxes for
Speaker 1: the wealthy. So I always found it interesting. I think
Speaker 1: this is an argument that Republicans have made. Effectively, They've
Speaker 1: defined themselves as like where the tax cut party. And
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people believe that means, oh,
Speaker 1: they're gonna cut my taxes and I'm working class American.
Speaker 1: But effectively that's not the case. Actually are increasing taxes
Speaker 1: on working people or they want to according to their
Speaker 1: own plans, and decreasing it for the wealthy. Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: the fair tax stuff is such an own goal that
Speaker 1: it is unbelievable. And for people who don't know. A
Speaker 1: vote on the fair tax was something that the Kevin
Speaker 1: McCarthy holdouts demanded, and as Kyle just alluded to, what
Speaker 1: it says is you're going to get rid of the
Speaker 1: income tax altogether and instead you're going to have a
Speaker 1: thirty percent sales tax. So as expensive as all your groceries,
Speaker 1: your meat, your eggs, your milk, or whatever is at
Speaker 1: the grocery store, how about we add thirty percent to that.
Speaker 1: That's literally what they demanded in terms of their you know,
Speaker 1: that was one of their concessions that they got for McCarthy.
Speaker 1: So yes, on that part, they have left themselves incredibly vulnerable.
Speaker 1: Be shocked if Biden doesn't talk about that ultimately in
Speaker 1: the State of the Union tonight. But you know, another
Speaker 1: piece of this she sort of alluded to, like these
Speaker 1: fights over education that Ron DeSantis and now Trump are
Speaker 1: really leaning into. And I think, just whatever you think
Speaker 1: about the politics and ideology of that, I think it
Speaker 1: is a stupid state strategy. Politically, they thought that Glenn
Speaker 1: Youngkin really won in Virginia on running against critical race theory.
Speaker 1: I don't think that's the case whatsoever. I think you
Speaker 1: had to the extent that the election was about education.
Speaker 1: It was much more about that. You just come out
Speaker 1: of a pandemic where schools had been literally shut down.
Speaker 1: But the minute that you're the party that is going
Speaker 1: I as president, from the federal government top down want
Speaker 1: to tell you what your kids can and can't learn.
Speaker 1: That does not feel like freedom, And it also doesn't
Speaker 1: you Still to this day, even with Republicans leaning so
Speaker 1: heavily into this fight, guess who voters say they prefer
Speaker 1: on education. It's still Democrats. You know why, because the
Speaker 1: things they care about from the federal government on education
Speaker 1: are like funding and getting more teachers in the classroom.
Speaker 1: Those are the sorts of things that they're interested in
Speaker 1: hearing from candidates. So I know they think this is
Speaker 1: a real winner. I don't think there is any evidence
Speaker 1: to back that up whatsoever. What do you think, Marshall.
Speaker 1: The other side of the coin, I would say is
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis just won by twenty points. You know, he's incredible.
Speaker 1: This is essentially if I were to look at this,
Speaker 1: I'd say this is the DeSantis theory of the case.
Speaker 1: Republicans did win six percent on the national popular vote
Speaker 1: during the mid terms. They clearly think that this is
Speaker 1: a winner. What do you think of this as a
Speaker 1: response in relation to what Chrysal and Kyle were saying. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I just want to echo what they both said because
Speaker 1: I think it's really helpful analysis. So a my take
Speaker 1: would probably be that education is the definition with state,
Speaker 1: and I mean it literally is the way I'm restructure.
Speaker 1: But if you're looking if I would bet money that
Speaker 1: if you're looking at a state like Florida, in a
Speaker 1: state like Virginia, a purple state in the case of
Speaker 1: Virginia and now a very red state in the case
Speaker 1: of Florida, Yeah, it's probably true that if you're fighting
Speaker 1: over school boards and you're fighting over how the specific
Speaker 1: state government's going to set education's bath. Yeah, totally. I
Speaker 1: think that's the definition of an issue where publics could
Speaker 1: win on. But I think we can look at the
Speaker 1: results in the twenty twenty midterms and say, hey, if
Speaker 1: we zoom out, does that state and local energy translate
Speaker 1: to national issues? I don't see it as much. And
Speaker 1: then Sager secondly to your point about Florida. Look, I
Speaker 1: would bet that if we just took out let's say
Speaker 1: Ron de Santis's fight with Disney, and let's say, for example,
Speaker 1: how he's really been aggressive on the university system, like
Speaker 1: aka appointing new boards at Florida University is like explicitly
Speaker 1: fighting against wokeness. That's about him signaling for the twenty
Speaker 1: twenty four Republican primary. It has nothing to do with
Speaker 1: the broader party realignment in Florida. I bet if we
Speaker 1: actually looked at the voters, who, for example, were probably
Speaker 1: more purple in the two thousands, they're not voting based
Speaker 1: on how Disney is specially, like Disney has a special
Speaker 1: district that was governed in a unique way. Him getting
Speaker 1: rid of that isn't shifting those voters. It's just the
Speaker 1: the Florida Democratic Party has been a dumpster fire since
Speaker 1: basically twenty ten. So I think that's the most important
Speaker 1: thing you need to think about. Go ahead, guys, what
Speaker 1: was I going to say something about? Uh? Especially Sager,
Speaker 1: you made this point about you were laying out what
Speaker 1: if you were DeSantis, how you would run against Trump,
Speaker 1: and you were talking about, Look, the economy in Florida
Speaker 1: is good, open for business. I think to Marshall's point,
Speaker 1: like his strength in that's in the state, and the
Speaker 1: fact that he was able to win and win so
Speaker 1: you know, a lot sidedly, I think has a lot
Speaker 1: more to do with that than it does these niche
Speaker 1: hyper online Republican base issues, which may serve him well
Speaker 1: in a Republican primary. But back to your question, marshal
Speaker 1: of like, are Republicans going to be able to read
Speaker 1: the room in terms of the mood of the electorate,
Speaker 1: Like how many regular moms, like swing mom voters out
Speaker 1: there are, like, you know what really the problem in
Speaker 1: the country is and in my life is wokeness. It's
Speaker 1: to your point though, DeSantis, he I watched his debate
Speaker 1: with Charlie and when debating Charlie Christ he didn't just
Speaker 1: do the you know, Republican Ron DeSantis primary tap dance,
Speaker 1: he did the general election sort of tap dance. Yes,
Speaker 1: And so hearing what Sarah Huckabye Sanders said there, that
Speaker 1: sounds to me more like a Republican primary speech than
Speaker 1: a general election speech. And she should be doing more
Speaker 1: general election type speech now, because you're talking nominally to
Speaker 1: the whole country, not just to your own little health.
Speaker 1: So she also is probably auditioning for like a vice
Speaker 1: presidential slut. Yeah, who knows. I think my actual takeaway
Speaker 1: is that all of that would be smart. But here's
Speaker 1: the thing. Republicans don't actually agree on economic policy, so
Speaker 1: you just have to leave that out of the speach.
Speaker 1: And I actually think that the real reason that it's
Speaker 1: not in there outside of a mention of high gas
Speaker 1: prices and yeah, or taxes, is literally because they really
Speaker 1: don't agree across the gamut on all of this. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I've always thought it's a potent strategy
Speaker 1: for Rohn DeSantis. I thought, look at the scoreboard was
Speaker 1: the best political comeback that he's given so far. It's perfect, right,
Speaker 1: just look at the scoreboard in terms of how they're talking,
Speaker 1: you know, in his debates or whatever. With Gavin Newsom,
Speaker 1: It's like, dude, literally half a million of year people
Speaker 1: moved to my state. That's it, dunk. And the reason
Speaker 1: why is open for business, keeping the schools open. Everybody's
Speaker 1: moving here. We're dynamic, we're having fun. We're trying to
Speaker 1: to the extent that we're prosecuting the culture war, it's
Speaker 1: to try and preserve normalcy quote unquote, whatever that means
Speaker 1: to the people of Florida. So that's probably why I
Speaker 1: think that the Sarah Huckabee Standards speech is not going
Speaker 1: to land necessarily in the way that it needs to.
Speaker 1: But let's also consider this, how many people are watching
Speaker 1: that actual rebuttal right, is this really at this point?
Speaker 1: Is this the general election or what do we all
Speaker 1: talk about? That's a Republican primary speech. What probably Republicans
Speaker 1: are the only ones going to watch it. What's the
Speaker 1: reality that all three of these cable networks even play Well,
Speaker 1: we're not going to play it. The only way a
Speaker 1: lot of people are going to watch it is if
Speaker 1: it's a freaking disaster. We'll watch the flips of it after,
Speaker 1: you know, situation. I think about here every time I
Speaker 1: drink something on here on the stage. Yeah, yeah, like
Speaker 1: I hope I don't Bobby Jindle, Now, I'm also traumatized
Speaker 1: by the Merca Review water drinking situation, so I have
Speaker 1: to like drink water on camera. Yeah, And Bobby Jindle,
Speaker 1: I mean that one is just infamous because that dude
Speaker 1: was seen as like the up and coming star and
Speaker 1: then that was it. That was it. So there is
Speaker 1: a chance that a lot of people will see Sarah
Speaker 1: Huckabee Sanders speech, but she should hope that that is
Speaker 1: not what comes to pass. That's a good point Okay,
Speaker 1: let's let's talk about polling data, because this actually gets
Speaker 1: to exactly what we're all talking about. What do people
Speaker 1: care about going into the State of the Union. So
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and throw up this next element here
Speaker 1: up on the screen, latest data that we have from
Speaker 1: Pew Research, right ahead of the State of the Union.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead and read these off. Our graphics
Speaker 1: team did a great job here. Strengthening the economy is
Speaker 1: the American top policy priority. Dealing with COVID nineteen is
Speaker 1: among the lowest, so that gives me some hope. So
Speaker 1: I'm gonna read these off. Number my number, Strengthening the
Speaker 1: economy seventy five, reducing healthcare sixty percent or sixty percent,
Speaker 1: Defending against terrorism sixty Reducing the influence of money in
Speaker 1: politics fifty nine, making medicare financially sound fifty eight, reducing
Speaker 1: the budget deficit fifty seven, Reducing crime fifty seven, Improving
Speaker 1: education fifty seven, reducing the availability of illegal drugs fifty three,
Speaker 1: dealing with immigration fifty three, energy fifty two, improving the
Speaker 1: job situation forty nine, dealing with the problems of poor
Speaker 1: people forty seven, the environment forty four, transportation forty two,
Speaker 1: military forty, dealing with climate change thirty seven, dealing with
Speaker 1: global trade is thirty four, Addressing issues around race is
Speaker 1: thirty two, dealing with challenges facing parents is twenty seven,
Speaker 1: and dealing with the coronavirus outbreak is all the way
Speaker 1: at the bottom with twenty six. So what I take
Speaker 1: away from that is that this is the you know
Speaker 1: and I hate using the phrase, but it's a kitchen
Speaker 1: table you know issue as normal, and it's like one
Speaker 1: of those which is kichi. You sound like a nineteen
Speaker 1: nineties Bill Clinton political pundit, but you know, the guy
Speaker 1: who won the presidency, So maybe we should just borrow
Speaker 1: from it. What do you take away from those numbers, Marshal,
Speaker 1: in the context of everything that we're talking about, you
Speaker 1: can finish. You could sip your drink first and then answer, no,
Speaker 1: I'm stapped. We're going to go so ay. The number
Speaker 1: one thing that stock out to me, and you read
Speaker 1: that out loud, was that energy was in the middle,
Speaker 1: which seems like a huge win if you're Biden and
Speaker 1: you I agree if you had this conversation in the
Speaker 1: middle of the summer, like I was saying earlier, it's
Speaker 1: all the energy. It's all about the prices being hide
Speaker 1: It's all about everyone seeing the photo of that what
Speaker 1: seven eight dollars gas fan in California. So that's the
Speaker 1: victory right there. And that's kind of the point we're
Speaker 1: making at the top about Biden doesn't have to convince
Speaker 1: people that everything is hunky Dorian perfect. That's not what
Speaker 1: his job has been. It's kind of funny if you're
Speaker 1: and this is kind of why there's this interesting like
Speaker 1: Obama versus Biden contraos. I think if you're a president Obama,
Speaker 1: you have to convince more of that. For Biden, it's
Speaker 1: basically like book man, it's pretty okay, let's keep things okay.
Speaker 1: So that really falls into that. And then two and
Speaker 1: this is just where the COVID thing's so interesting. This
Speaker 1: goes back to the Rond de Santis conversation. To what
Speaker 1: degree is the twenty twenty four electure going to be
Speaker 1: interested in relitigating twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. So
Speaker 1: that's another thing to really think about there too, because
Speaker 1: that whole number of COVID concerns just I think we
Speaker 1: generally skew towards us just moving on from that issue,
Speaker 1: and basically in either direction, pretending it didn't happen or not. Yeah. Well,
Speaker 1: and that's a problem for Rond DeSantis too, because his
Speaker 1: whole case against Trump is about what he did with
Speaker 1: regard to the coronavirus versus what Trump did. And so
Speaker 1: if that is lessening, if that's becoming less of a
Speaker 1: hot issue, even among Republican base voters, that makes his
Speaker 1: case somewhat less compelling at this point. But you know,
Speaker 1: looking at the issue set, it makes sense why Biden
Speaker 1: is going to focus on some of the things that
Speaker 1: he's going to focus on. Apparently in his Date of
Speaker 1: the Union address, he's going to pull back some of
Speaker 1: the build back better elements that you didn't make it
Speaker 1: through into the Inflation Reduction Act, talking about renewing the
Speaker 1: expanded child tax Credit, something I am very big on,
Speaker 1: a thirty five dollars insulin cap for all Americans. That
Speaker 1: also be great. And healthcare costs was one of the
Speaker 1: top issues there, Medicaid expansion and eleven states, and childcare
Speaker 1: and elder care. Now, as Soccer said, these are all
Speaker 1: the solid messaging. None of this is going to happen
Speaker 1: with the Republicans in control of the House. So this
Speaker 1: begins to lay out what the reelect pitch will be,
Speaker 1: what I would do in a second term as president.
Speaker 1: But you can see he's like squarely focused on these
Speaker 1: sort of core economic issues that clearly are top of
Speaker 1: mine for voters. Yeah, and when you look at the
Speaker 1: top one, strengthen the economy that you have, reducing healthcare costs,
Speaker 1: there are things he can point to of like, look,
Speaker 1: we're moving in the right direction here. So the thing
Speaker 1: we were talking about earlier, Crystal, we're on shoring three
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand jobs right now. That's something that
Speaker 1: he probably will brag about if I had to guess. Also,
Speaker 1: on lowering health care costs, I mean, as part of
Speaker 1: the IRA, they do have lower prescription drug prices. Now
Speaker 1: it's only for it's only certain drugs, and it's only
Speaker 1: for seniors. But there's also a cap that two thousand
Speaker 1: dollars out of pocket and there's two hundred and eighty
Speaker 1: eight billion dollars in savings for seniors. These are things
Speaker 1: that he could bring up to say like, look, I'm
Speaker 1: addressing your your top concerns and so like I'm on it,
Speaker 1: and what are those guys doing nothing? Yeah? By the way.
Speaker 1: A shout out to the live chat Marshall. My favorite
Speaker 1: comments so far is that you are the breaking points
Speaker 1: designated survivor. That's a good one. That's a good one.
Speaker 1: They gotta they gotta shout it out to all of them,
Speaker 1: you guys. The terrible monologue got on to open with tomorrow. Yeah,
Speaker 1: just get chat Gptrie, just get chat TPT to write
Speaker 1: it if we get if we get, by the way,
Speaker 1: you know, if the capital does, God forbid, get attacked,
Speaker 1: we will be incinerated in the blast because we're close
Speaker 1: enough to that. So we love you all. You'll be
Speaker 1: able all of that going on here. If we have
Speaker 1: any super chats that are good, we'll go ahead and
Speaker 1: read some of those were. Saga floated beforehand that George
Speaker 1: Santos should be the designated survivor because he's what the country.
Speaker 1: He's a true he's what I deserve, what the country is.
Speaker 1: I have a fun Santos update of if everybody is interested.
Speaker 1: Santos has sat himself in the center aisle of the
Speaker 1: House of Representative specifically to try and shake President Biden's
Speaker 1: hand on national TV, and he is drawing attention to
Speaker 1: himself with a bright traffic cone, orange tie. Oh my god,
Speaker 1: you gotta give it to the man. He has no shame.
Speaker 1: That is a bad call. First of all fashion wise disaster,
Speaker 1: but second just the shamelessness, like he knows that millions,
Speaker 1: tens of millions of people are going to watch. He's
Speaker 1: going to go in there for that handshake. There are
Speaker 1: a couple of notorious members of Congress who do this,
Speaker 1: who get their hours and hours early. Shila Jackson Lee.
Speaker 1: I remember from my time as a congressional intern, it
Speaker 1: was like lore that she always does it because apparently
Speaker 1: her constitution. You ands are always like I saw you
Speaker 1: at the State of the Union shake. Apparently it works. Again.
Speaker 1: I don't know why people watch this thing's good. Is
Speaker 1: going to save George Santos's career? Maybe it will that
Speaker 1: big Biden and shake and you can grab the photo.
Speaker 1: It's amazing. I who credits happen? Though? How can you
Speaker 1: have GOP creds if he's going to sit there and
Speaker 1: shake the president's hand. Gotta do what he's got to do,
Speaker 1: ask for other stunts. Kevin McCarthy has confirmed he will
Speaker 1: not rip up the State of the Union. So thank
Speaker 1: you Kevin for this. In the House. Yeah, will he
Speaker 1: will do a clap like this. It's always fun. Actually,
Speaker 1: that's actually his biggest problem. He just you're not going
Speaker 1: to tur into me meme in either direction. I agree. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he doesn't have it him. That's fair, that's unfortunate. Something
Speaker 1: I look for at a good speaker of the House
Speaker 1: is very memorable, right, I mean, listen, actually, Biden, if
Speaker 1: I remember, it was hilarious to watch during Obama's State
Speaker 1: of the Unions he would sometimes like forget to button
Speaker 1: his jacket or sometimes you would do that thing where
Speaker 1: he would button every time he stood up unbuttoned every time.
Speaker 1: It was like, chill, dude, just up and down. It's
Speaker 1: all good. You know, we're fine. You don't need to
Speaker 1: button it. There's always the game too, of like who's
Speaker 1: going to stand for which lines and who's going to
Speaker 1: sit for the other lines. There's always that dynamic going
Speaker 1: on too, my Majesty of the State of the Year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it is funny though, because I mean, people really do
Speaker 1: take time out, like normal people take time out and
Speaker 1: sit down, and it is part of like the American tradition,
Speaker 1: and so it is as much as we sort of
Speaker 1: make fun of some of the pomp and circumstance and
Speaker 1: like ridiculous nature of how this all comes together and
Speaker 1: the way people behave et cetera. It is important, and
Speaker 1: I'm in favor of more transparency, more account and more
Speaker 1: going in front of the American people and laying out
Speaker 1: what you did and how you're selling it and what
Speaker 1: you think about it and what's going to come next.
Speaker 1: So I am I am a State of the Union supporter,
Speaker 1: and I am I am unironically excited to hear how
Speaker 1: this all goes tonight. The one thing I wish people
Speaker 1: every now and then a president would do is be
Speaker 1: a like more honest and say, ladies and gentlemen, the
Speaker 1: state of the Union is terrible. There actually was one.
Speaker 1: I forget who was We watched the compilation the other day.
Speaker 1: I remember who what was it? Ford? I think maybe
Speaker 1: Ford did it well. He did it in a way
Speaker 1: where he was like it was like moving on from Nixon,
Speaker 1: as in it was like, look I get it, you
Speaker 1: know that time. So but now we're all together. I
Speaker 1: bought it the other guy, I mean, he was smart.
Speaker 1: He almost won re election. So it actually I was
Speaker 1: going to say, how that, how did that turn out
Speaker 1: for our president. It came close. You got to give
Speaker 1: the man credit and credit where it's due. Actually, wait,
Speaker 1: we're quick, Kyle, because that's kind of interesting because you
Speaker 1: think about it. I think, and this goes to the
Speaker 1: whole debate about whether or not the Republicans want to
Speaker 1: make Trump the presidential candidate again. Trump is the only
Speaker 1: guy in modern American politics who's won and once again
Speaker 1: referring to twenty fifteen twenty sixteen on a message of
Speaker 1: pessimism and carnage, Like we make fun of Jimmy Carter
Speaker 1: for saying Malays for a reason, I mean technically say Malays,
Speaker 1: but like it was called the Malays speech because that
Speaker 1: was the general vibe of it. But I think it's
Speaker 1: a real interesting test of whether or not people are
Speaker 1: going to want to hear but everything is shitty versus hey,
Speaker 1: we're moving forward, things are getting more normal again. That's
Speaker 1: another one of those debates of what the count his
Speaker 1: mood is. Yeah, I mean there was there was a
Speaker 1: realism to it though, you know, like when Trump was
Speaker 1: Trump was specific in saying, you know, our infrastructure is
Speaker 1: a mess, our airports are a mess. You know, the
Speaker 1: middle of the country has been hollowed out, we're shipping
Speaker 1: all the jobs to Mexico, and that stuff is actually true,
Speaker 1: you know. Now, Republicans were used to the Ronald Reagan
Speaker 1: style of politics for a very long time, where it's
Speaker 1: like morning in America and everything's happy and sunshine and
Speaker 1: puppies and all that stuff, and Trump really changed that mold.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of that is dependent on the personality,
Speaker 1: kind of like, can the personality, you know, create a
Speaker 1: convincing case with the pessimism or is it you know,
Speaker 1: somebody whose disposition is more in line with something that's
Speaker 1: like sunny and positive. You know, I think I think
Speaker 1: there are other candidates would probably get away with it.
Speaker 1: And I mean to an extent. Bernie kind of did
Speaker 1: that too, right twenty fifteen to twenty sixteen, he was
Speaker 1: more hopeful, but certainly yeah, yeah, exactly, yeah, But I
Speaker 1: mean I think that is a note that Biden could
Speaker 1: potentially land. Listen, I just don't, okay, all right, Biden
Speaker 1: at this point in his career, No, he probably can't.
Speaker 1: Let me want not that. But I don't think there
Speaker 1: is anything more powerful than meeting people where they are
Speaker 1: then expressing a truth that they feel like in their
Speaker 1: life and that they don't feel like is being reflected
Speaker 1: in Washington. And that was the power of Trump, Like
Speaker 1: he said things that other politicians weren't saying, and people
Speaker 1: were like, you know what, I feel that, Like, that's
Speaker 1: what I see. That's how I see things at this point.
Speaker 1: And so you can meet people where they're at and
Speaker 1: not just be like and so everything sucks. I mean,
Speaker 1: Biden always layers in this like, you know, American exceptionalism,
Speaker 1: optimism where we're like, we're America, We're gonna do this
Speaker 1: and whatever, like he you can have that piece too,
Speaker 1: and here's the plan and here's how we're gonna pull
Speaker 1: it together. I just think it's a fool's errand to
Speaker 1: try to persuade people that the economy is amazing when
Speaker 1: that's not what they feel in their lives. By the way,
Speaker 1: Trump would also when he did his State of the Unions,
Speaker 1: he would also brag relentlessly, so like, as long as
Speaker 1: he's in power, it's like everything's great, everything's phenomenally is amazing.
Speaker 1: But when he was out of hours, remember when he
Speaker 1: was having the debate publicly, should I do make America
Speaker 1: great again again? Or should I do keep America great. Remember, Yeah,
Speaker 1: he was like pulling the audience again. I think he
Speaker 1: actually used both uh slogans first. It certainly did. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean that was actually a funny time. I remember that.
Speaker 1: By the way, shout out to our super chats Marshall.
Speaker 1: Somebody wants to get you on JR. Kyle. Somebody is
Speaker 1: loving the hair and somebody says I would make an
Speaker 1: excellent statesman. You are incorrect, sir, I do not agree
Speaker 1: with that. Puddling back a little bit, Marshall, you I
Speaker 1: don't remember the quote, but there was a Peter Teal
Speaker 1: quote I believe from what was it twenty fifteen where
Speaker 1: he talked about supporting Trump, and it was anchored in
Speaker 1: exactly what we're talking about here where Teal, known in
Speaker 1: Silicon Valley for contrarianism, effectively said something and Marshall will
Speaker 1: fill in the gap here where he was like, No,
Speaker 1: I actually think that the message to bet On is
Speaker 1: a message of decline, not a message of optimism. Marshall,
Speaker 1: I know you have more of the details on that. Yeah. No,
Speaker 1: this is in the George Packers interviews with Peter Thiel
Speaker 1: from twenty thirteen. Ye also did a great book called
Speaker 1: The Unwinding. It's somewhere back here, but I think folks
Speaker 1: should definitely check out George's twenty ten's work. But basically
Speaker 1: the point of the quote was Peter was saying, my
Speaker 1: contrarian bet is that everyone thinks that people are looking
Speaker 1: for optimism and a sunny disposition. This is coming out
Speaker 1: of obviously twenty twelve, where you've got ntt Romney and
Speaker 1: Paul Ryan running as America's comeback team. All that like
Speaker 1: very specific, like we can rebuild and fix all the
Speaker 1: mistakes Obama's supposedly made. And his point was, I think
Speaker 1: whoever's smart is going to pick up on the vibe
Speaker 1: that the country wants something negative. And obviously I guarantee
Speaker 1: you that Trump did not read The Unwinding or read
Speaker 1: the New Yorker. But once again, I think I think
Speaker 1: that speaks out in certain moments. Certain politicians have specific
Speaker 1: skill sets that are important, and Trump's important skill set
Speaker 1: in twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen was that he
Speaker 1: could pick that up when all of his opponents, Marco
Speaker 1: ru Rubio running as like the candidate of the New
Speaker 1: American century. That was actually what the slow and you
Speaker 1: have like Jeff Bush saying we're going to have like
Speaker 1: four percent economic growth and we can do it. But
Speaker 1: this once again the problem though of a politician who's
Speaker 1: specifically good in one moment and not another moment, which
Speaker 1: is Trump bringing that energy to periods when he didn't
Speaker 1: need to bring it. And I also think Trump's like
Speaker 1: everything is a disaster. Energy is also is also what
Speaker 1: urges him to be an election denier. It's what urges
Speaker 1: him to select ridiculous candidates like you know, Carrie Lake
Speaker 1: use his endorsements improperly. So the real test is can
Speaker 1: twenty six can he course correct, which probably not honestly.
Speaker 1: It's also I mean, it's also the difference between being
Speaker 1: an incumbent and being an opposition. Right, If you're an opposition,
Speaker 1: it's easier to be like everything sucks and these people
Speaker 1: are blowing in it's terrible, And yeah, it's harder. I mean,
Speaker 1: admittedly you're in a more difficult position and you're like,
Speaker 1: I've been president for a few years now and things
Speaker 1: are still challenging, but we've done some good stuff. I mean,
Speaker 1: there is just more of a line ultimately that you
Speaker 1: have to walk there. Yeah, that's true. Quick shout out.
Speaker 1: Somebody left a super chat Alex dos Lieb. He says
Speaker 1: Biden fetishizes by partisanship so much he has one red
Speaker 1: eyeball and one blue eyeball. I'll be happy and wrong
Speaker 1: if he vetos cuts to Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security.
Speaker 1: I do think he would veto cuts to Medicare at
Speaker 1: Social Security. Also, given the fact that you have Donald
Speaker 1: Trump out there literally saying don't do that. So there's
Speaker 1: going to be a sizeable portion of Republican senators and
Speaker 1: of Republican congressmen who are like, look, I'm They're like,
Speaker 1: I may support this stuff behind the scenes, but I'm
Speaker 1: not voting for that. So hope that's true. I hope
Speaker 1: Trump really still has that kind of sway over them.
Speaker 1: I personally think that, yes, I believe that on this
Speaker 1: issue that while in the driver's seat the Freedom Caucus
Speaker 1: and some of the ideologues there are, they're probably at
Speaker 1: this point. I could be totally wrong and we will
Speaker 1: see what the ultimate vote count on this. I do
Speaker 1: not think it will ultimately come down to cuts for
Speaker 1: Social Security. I do think that is important. Fun factoid
Speaker 1: Biden will be the oldest man to ever deliver the
Speaker 1: State of the Union today and from this day forward.
Speaker 1: So that is a fun one for everybody in terms
Speaker 1: of what else that we know about the speech. One
Speaker 1: of the things he's actually going to be taking credit for, Marshall,
Speaker 1: and this goes to what you were talking about, is
Speaker 1: gas prices. So whenever you brought it up, I've got
Speaker 1: the national average in front of me is three dollars,
Speaker 1: is three dollars and forty five cents a gallon on average,
Speaker 1: I mean, still high, but it's not terrible. If you
Speaker 1: look at a year ago, who's exactly three forty that's
Speaker 1: right around the time that Russia invaded Ukraine or I
Speaker 1: believe right before that. So gas is relatively stable. There's
Speaker 1: not a state in this entire country where gas is
Speaker 1: over five dollars a gallon. Our friends in California are
Speaker 1: paying for sixty. Of course, that's going to be an
Speaker 1: important metric. So I really think that he just has
Speaker 1: to come back to the basics, like he's got to
Speaker 1: talk about Trump, stop the steal. You want to frame
Speaker 1: it exactly in that way. You want to hammer abortion
Speaker 1: probably at the very top. Thank the voters who kept
Speaker 1: the Democrats in the Senate. Give shout outs to John Fetterman,
Speaker 1: give shout outs to who is the Arizona with the
Speaker 1: Arizona gubernatorial candid Katie Hobbs. You want to give shout
Speaker 1: outs to those people and say we heard you on
Speaker 1: that issue. And you know, this is part of what's
Speaker 1: fold to get back into reelection is but Republicans at
Speaker 1: the House. So if you want us to get anything done,
Speaker 1: you have to vote for us again in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1: So I want to ask Marshall, Marshall, how long do
Speaker 1: you think Biden can keep going back to this January sixth? Well,
Speaker 1: as long that's a great question, as long as Republicans
Speaker 1: nominate candidates that activate voters as whoa, let's not do that.
Speaker 1: And this is the thing because like that's actually the
Speaker 1: way to think about which is the reason why Republicans
Speaker 1: were screwed in twenty twenty two is they, like I
Speaker 1: think many of us in like the commentary space, thought
Speaker 1: that voters didn't care. And it's not as if like
Speaker 1: Republicans were like and by that I mean like the
Speaker 1: party establishment in DC. It's not as if they were,
Speaker 1: you know, explicitly saying hey, stop this deal. I think
Speaker 1: they were probably arguing or believing it's going to be
Speaker 1: a wash was a huge issue obviously in those big
Speaker 1: results in those swing states. So as long as Republicans
Speaker 1: nominate the wrong candidates, and I'm not meaning wrong in
Speaker 1: the moral sense, I'm saying wrong in the sense that
Speaker 1: candidates who are performing for party primary bases who want
Speaker 1: to hear stop the fuel bullshit with obviously like intercepting
Speaker 1: with the general election. Right, is he be able to
Speaker 1: talk about it until the Republican Party And by the way,
Speaker 1: I don't mean the entire Republican Party. I mean until
Speaker 1: swing state Republicans basically move on from this issue or
Speaker 1: start saying in their primaries, Hey, well select whoever reads
Speaker 1: the vibe and doesn't talk about lectures not working? Yeah,
Speaker 1: why does anyone to go to it? Yes, yeah, you're
Speaker 1: absolutely right. As long as as Donald Trump is alive
Speaker 1: and breathing, Biden should thump it for all these are
Speaker 1: not I wish it didn't work this way, folks, but
Speaker 1: it does. So there's another piece of that's going to
Speaker 1: be very critical to his performance. As much as we
Speaker 1: all pay a lot of attention to the policy and
Speaker 1: have a lot of opinions on what would be good
Speaker 1: and what's bad and how things have gone all of that.
Speaker 1: A lot of this is also people taking a vibe
Speaker 1: check of whether this eighty year old man is up
Speaker 1: to the task of another four years. That's good and
Speaker 1: you know it's not just because they're concerned about okay,
Speaker 1: can he personally handle it? But you also will have
Speaker 1: visibly behind him Kamala Harris, the vice president who would
Speaker 1: be next in line, who not a lot of people
Speaker 1: are super fond of. We can actually put this up
Speaker 1: on the screen from the New York Times. This piece
Speaker 1: from the New York Times about Kamala Harris is devastating.
Speaker 1: The headline here is Kamala Harris is trying to define
Speaker 1: her vice presidency. Even her allies are tired of waiting.
Speaker 1: They say in here that even some of the Democrats
Speaker 1: that her own office told reporters would give them supportive
Speaker 1: quotes confided privately that they had lost hope in her.
Speaker 1: So even the people that Kamala Harris was like, this
Speaker 1: guy is going to say great things about me, when
Speaker 1: this New York Times reporter actually went to them, they
Speaker 1: were like, Oh, this is not going that well. And
Speaker 1: so you couple the ag issue with concerns about whether
Speaker 1: the current vice president would be up to the job,
Speaker 1: and just the optics of how he's able to navigate
Speaker 1: the speech and what his energy level is like and
Speaker 1: how he delivers it. That's going to be almost as crucial, sober,
Speaker 1: I think, as anything else that he says here. Absolutely.
Speaker 1: I mean, one of the things that always drives me
Speaker 1: crazy is that they mentioned like Biden who overcame his stutter,
Speaker 1: and they're like, he's working very hard on over Listen.
Speaker 1: I've listened to the man for literally over a decade.
Speaker 1: He didn't have a stutter until he miraculously became seventy
Speaker 1: eight years old and started running for president again, shocking.
Speaker 1: So they're appointing that as one of the issues that
Speaker 1: he's going to have to deal with is overcome his stutter.
Speaker 1: You're right, though, Look it's a key thing. And if
Speaker 1: you look at all of the polling data that we
Speaker 1: have available to us, Biden's age is a serious problem.
Speaker 1: It is one of the major reservations. It's one of
Speaker 1: the main reasons Democrats do not want him to run again.
Speaker 1: I mean, you said this, and it's internal. He will
Speaker 1: be eighty six years old on his last year's president.
Speaker 1: If he gets real that's crazy, like eighty six years old.
Speaker 1: I don't. It's difficult to even describe. I think. I mean,
Speaker 1: most people know who has interacted with somebody who has
Speaker 1: that old and exactly what exponential decline can look like,
Speaker 1: especially at that age. This is not a commentary. I
Speaker 1: hope that it doesn't happen to him, but if we're
Speaker 1: betting on the odds, it's very likely to. And then
Speaker 1: then if you're going to have a political successor, one
Speaker 1: of our super chats says, I hope that Biden fires
Speaker 1: mayor Pete live on the air. That would be good
Speaker 1: for his political popularity. I agree, we're gonna make air.
Speaker 1: He goes, come on, man, airplanes aren't flying. You're out
Speaker 1: of here. We got by the way, we have the
Speaker 1: exact same super chat. Oh really that is perfect. Whoever
Speaker 1: that guy is, I love this guy. It's true to
Speaker 1: a lot of normy Americans, vibes really do matter. Vibes
Speaker 1: are really important, and so a lot of the speech
Speaker 1: is going to be just about optics and very intangible
Speaker 1: things like was he communicating? And so I hope they
Speaker 1: give him a nice solid dose of adderall, and he
Speaker 1: can get through it. I also wanted to point out
Speaker 1: that I do find it genuinely hilarious that Biden really
Speaker 1: struggles to talk, but he's more popular than Kamala Harris.
Speaker 1: That's that's interesting to me. And there's something she has,
Speaker 1: like she has like an anti charisma about her. I
Speaker 1: love there was a story that came out yesterday or
Speaker 1: the day before where she says how she hates platitudes,
Speaker 1: which is the most ironic thing anybody's ever said, because
Speaker 1: she is a platitude machine. Got yeah, glorious. What were
Speaker 1: you saying there, Marshall? Go ahead, Well, you know, I
Speaker 1: just I think the thing that so several things, So
Speaker 1: one I just looked it up. So Trump right now
Speaker 1: is seventy six years old. And this is one of
Speaker 1: those awkward arguments that Desantas is in such an awkward
Speaker 1: position because the strongest arguments he could make are ones
Speaker 1: that are that basically could rely on actually assuming that
Speaker 1: Biden is more powerful he looks. So I make those
Speaker 1: like I think those So for example, if Biden is
Speaker 1: just this like weak, hobbled old man, he's going to
Speaker 1: be you know, knocked over just like that Okay, like,
Speaker 1: does it really matter that Trump is also seventy six
Speaker 1: years that Trump is seventy six years old and would
Speaker 1: obviously be like, you know, in his mid eighties by
Speaker 1: the time he leaves as well. Too. A strong argument
Speaker 1: for DeSantis would just be that generation would be making
Speaker 1: an aggressive version of that generation argument, but he's not
Speaker 1: gonna be able to make it, I think, for I
Speaker 1: think complicated reasons, we're fuck what the GP base is
Speaker 1: looking for. But then on a broader level too, I
Speaker 1: think the problem that Republicans also have when they focus
Speaker 1: on like Biden's you know, speech issues and how he's
Speaker 1: dodding is I think at this point it's a sunk cost.
Speaker 1: Everybody knows it's been priced in. You if you just
Speaker 1: don't think that Joe Biden is particularly compelling speech issues aside,
Speaker 1: you're probably already lost. Then I think the last thing
Speaker 1: is that I'm just really skeptical of these whole numbers,
Speaker 1: especially of like Democrats who are saying, oh, like, we
Speaker 1: don't really want Biden to win run again, because I
Speaker 1: think at the end of the day, if you give
Speaker 1: them most of their alternatives, they're actually pausible. They don't
Speaker 1: want that alternative. Yeah, that's fair. And then b if
Speaker 1: you ask that question in the vacuum, that's a different
Speaker 1: question than Okay Biden or Ron DeSantis, which is gonna
Speaker 1: be the main thing. It's a base turnout issue, all right.
Speaker 1: So let's take a look at some polling. Let's put
Speaker 1: this next element up on the screen. B two and
Speaker 1: you have Trump Biden head to head here from this
Speaker 1: is ABC Washington Post, and you have had since September
Speaker 1: a significant move towards Donald Trump. So they have Trump
Speaker 1: over Biden forty eight forty five. That's three points. It's
Speaker 1: I believe, within the margin of error, you have him
Speaker 1: up nine points on Biden. With regards to independence, again,
Speaker 1: this is a five point swing towards Trump from September.
Speaker 1: And you know, the reason Joe Biden is won the
Speaker 1: Democratic nomination, the reason he is president of the United
Speaker 1: States right now is because Democrats thought he was the
Speaker 1: most electable candidate and their number one goal was beating
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. So the more he has numbers like this
Speaker 1: where it's like, I don't know, I don't know, even
Speaker 1: you're not even in a position to beat Donald after
Speaker 1: everything that Donald Trump has done, and how sick everybody
Speaker 1: is of this guy. You're still not in a position
Speaker 1: to beat this guy. That's a real problem for him.
Speaker 1: You're look at skeptical, Kyle Y. I'm very skeptical of that. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, we're a little removed from the insanity
Speaker 1: of the Trump presidency, you know, but I don't think
Speaker 1: it'll take all that much to remind Americans just how
Speaker 1: insane Trump was. And yeah, Biden was the return to
Speaker 1: normal candidate, like, Okay, things are going to a little
Speaker 1: too wacky. Let's you know, let's get back in line here,
Speaker 1: let's calm down a little bit. And he won. I
Speaker 1: think if it were to be Biden versus Trump again,
Speaker 1: Biden will do the best against Trump that he could
Speaker 1: do against anybody. In other words, if you put DeSantis
Speaker 1: against Biden, I think DeSantis is a big favorite. You
Speaker 1: put fill in the blank with generic Republican versus Biden,
Speaker 1: I think the generic Republican is going to do better.
Speaker 1: I think Trump is the most beatable of the Republicans.
Speaker 1: I'm not doubting these numbers at the moment, but I
Speaker 1: think that I don't think that can hold. I don't
Speaker 1: think these numbers will hold. I agree with you that
Speaker 1: Trump is the most beatable, probably of the Republicans. But
Speaker 1: I also don't underestimate him Trump, y, I am, I'm
Speaker 1: doing that. I'm underestimating You've always underrested. Wait, that is
Speaker 1: I have to correct the record. That is not true.
Speaker 1: Correct Marshall won sack one sec In recent times, Yes,
Speaker 1: because people need to remember. I was one of the
Speaker 1: first people saying Trump can win the whole presidency. And
Speaker 1: I was one of the first people saying, especially when
Speaker 1: we realized it was Hillary versus Trump, I said Donald
Speaker 1: Trump is the favorite because he's going to pounce on
Speaker 1: Hillary for all of her weaknesses. So early on I
Speaker 1: called a lot about the Trump era that a lot
Speaker 1: of people missed, and the conventional wisdom became like teflandn, teflandn, teflandon.
Speaker 1: And again, I think I'm a little bit ahead here
Speaker 1: because I think the era of Teflandon is largely over. That,
Speaker 1: to be fair, has changed a little bit in recent days.
Speaker 1: I thought the Santas was a solid favorite. Now I
Speaker 1: do think Trump is a favorite in the Republican primary.
Speaker 1: But I'm just saying that the conventional wisdom is still
Speaker 1: in people's heads of oh, he's unbeatable stephlond On, and
Speaker 1: I think now it's the opposite. I think he's the
Speaker 1: most beatable, he's the most fringe. He's over on truth
Speaker 1: social talking about terminating the Constitution. That doesn't matter. That
Speaker 1: was hilarious. I want to talking about that was actually
Speaker 1: that was really cool. Go ahead, Marshall, let's go. Let's
Speaker 1: actually go there for a second. I'm not sure I
Speaker 1: believe this, but I'm just going to respond to what's
Speaker 1: being said here. Why shouldn't I think there's more danger
Speaker 1: of overestimating Trump and I underestimating Trump. Like the story
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump, with the exception of the you know,
Speaker 1: the Republican primary twenty fifty, twenty sixteen and November twenty sixteen,
Speaker 1: is the story of disaster. It's him deciding that he's
Speaker 1: going to pass a tax cut as his first act.
Speaker 1: It's decided to do the Obamacare thing, and then pissing
Speaker 1: off John McCain. So that goes down in flames. The
Speaker 1: midterms are a disaster, The twenty twenty election is a disaster,
Speaker 1: and he selects the worst candidates in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1: So what's the case for thinking, actually he's got something
Speaker 1: in you know, his back pocket. He hasn't had something
Speaker 1: in his back pocket since twenty sixteen. That's done. Marshall spon.
Speaker 1: Let me let me say Marshall spitten. Though this dude
Speaker 1: did such an abysmal job during COVID that people were
Speaker 1: literally dying because of his lack of leadership, and he's
Speaker 1: still almost won butty thousand most but he didn't almost one,
Speaker 1: but he didn't, So you can't just like write him
Speaker 1: off when it was like forty thousand votes. Go in
Speaker 1: a different direction and he's still president of the United States.
Speaker 1: I agree, he's what I think DeSantis would be a
Speaker 1: stronger candidate. I think any normal Republican would be a
Speaker 1: stronger candidate. But I'm not going to go out there
Speaker 1: and say, like, there's no boy, Joe Biden could lose
Speaker 1: to this guy, because I think Joe Biden definitely could
Speaker 1: lose to this one. Yeah, And I think that's where
Speaker 1: I am and more. What I think I'm responding to
Speaker 1: is the idea of like, look, after twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: he's done, he's dead, he's got no power, And there
Speaker 1: is quite a bit of this. Maybe it's too online,
Speaker 1: and I'm guilty of just internal it but I see,
Speaker 1: and especially in the days right after twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: a lot of people were willing to say we're moving on,
Speaker 1: it's done. And guess what, guys, Ron de Santis has
Speaker 1: not announced her president so far. Only Nicky Haley is
Speaker 1: the one who's signaling that she's gonna do it. She'd
Speaker 1: we all know that she doesn't have a chance in hell.
Speaker 1: Mike Pompeo, who is as pathetic as Nicki Haley as
Speaker 1: a candidate, is also not announcing for president. Many Asa Hutchinson,
Speaker 1: the guy who was talking against him on CNN, where's
Speaker 1: his super pack? So look, he's still got a lot
Speaker 1: of power. How about this one, Larry Hogan, Yeah, never Trump, dude, right,
Speaker 1: I mean he's been like very anti Trump for a
Speaker 1: while now. They asked him if he would back the
Speaker 1: Republican nominee even if it was Trump, and he was like, yes, yes,
Speaker 1: whereas Trump isn't there, Like, I don't know, we'll see,
Speaker 1: we'll see if I back the Republican nominee. Maybe here's
Speaker 1: a better way of putting it, Like at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, anybody and actually remember saying this whenever
Speaker 1: Trump was on the ballot, But he was like, nobody,
Speaker 1: he can't win. I said, look, sometimes if it's fifty
Speaker 1: to fifty, like if your name is on the ballot
Speaker 1: as a presidential nominee, you absolutely can win the American presidency.
Speaker 1: And so that's where that's when I say not underresting
Speaker 1: in him. I do. I think it is more likely
Speaker 1: than not. Honestly, I don't know. I mean I look
Speaker 1: at a poll like this, and again I'm just taking back,
Speaker 1: which is, yeah, look stop the steal. That was dumb.
Speaker 1: And here's the other thing. You have you heard about
Speaker 1: it from Trump since you might have heard about it
Speaker 1: on truth Social. Who the hell knows what's going on
Speaker 1: on truth Social. So I will I'll just say this,
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, the debate is electability, yes, right,
Speaker 1: And I think Marshall and I maybe we agree on this. Marshall,
Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong. I think that after losing
Speaker 1: three elections in a row twenty eighteen, twenty twenty, twenty
Speaker 1: twenty two, the Republicans, even the base Republicans, some of
Speaker 1: the base Republicans might go, you know what, maybe electability
Speaker 1: actually does matter a little bit, and maybe Republican voters
Speaker 1: will start acting a little more like Democratic voters were
Speaker 1: crats seem to put that like first and foremost above
Speaker 1: everybody else. Desperately wish that were to be true. Marshall,
Speaker 1: You and I have talked about this. There is zero
Speaker 1: evidence that these people care about electability. See I disagree,
Speaker 1: but especially to try people, I'll I'll come in and
Speaker 1: disagree here. So like, this is where there's especially in
Speaker 1: the breaking point cinematic universe, there's a lot of discussion
Speaker 1: about how, oh the two parties are the same my body, body, body,
Speaker 1: bond neck. Obviously there's critiques you can make there, But
Speaker 1: a way the two parties are desperately different from each
Speaker 1: other in a way that severely has hurt Republicans basically
Speaker 1: from twenty eighteen onwards is Democratic Party voters they basically
Speaker 1: just say electability. They're not thinking, Okay, what's the coolest policy.
Speaker 1: They're not thinking, oh, like, is this quite the guy
Speaker 1: who I like? It's just like, look, I just want
Speaker 1: to go across the finish line in November, and that's
Speaker 1: just it. No evidence that a majority of Republican voters
Speaker 1: think the same way, because once again a Republican voters
Speaker 1: thought the same way, for good or for ill Ron
Speaker 1: just status, we would be doing the cakewalk right now.
Speaker 1: Trump would have been shut out everyone for example, like
Speaker 1: Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo, as a Hutchinson, Larry Hogan, all
Speaker 1: these guys would have already endorsed, you know, Ron de
Speaker 1: Santa's because it he that overwhelming in his favor. If
Speaker 1: a Democrat performed the way Trump performed, the notion that
Speaker 1: he could come back and run for office again just
Speaker 1: not on the table at all. Whatsoever. There's a reason
Speaker 1: why Jimmy Carter never came back. There's a reason why,
Speaker 1: you know, Al Gore didn't make a comeback, John Carrey, etcetera, etcetera,
Speaker 1: et cetera. I guess with the exception of but I
Speaker 1: guess Hillary lost the primary and she didn't lose the general.
Speaker 1: The Democratic Party actually severely punishes politicians you can't win. Now,
Speaker 1: maybe that's a good thing, and that's a bad thing.
Speaker 1: Maybe it means that the party is going to be
Speaker 1: more like quote unquote corporate centrist and not really like
Speaker 1: push the needle and go more to the left and
Speaker 1: do something innovative. But that's a successful way of winning
Speaker 1: the popular vote. In seven of the last eight elections.
Speaker 1: So my response to that is, there were many polls
Speaker 1: in the wake of the twenty twenty two election had
Speaker 1: Desant to sell double digits. Even today, there are still
Speaker 1: polls at the state level certain states where DeSantis is
Speaker 1: beating Trump in those states. So my point is not
Speaker 1: to say Republicans definitely will prioritize electability this time around.
Speaker 1: My point is let's have a little humility and realize
Speaker 1: they might they might actually go. You know what, we
Speaker 1: got to calm down a little bit with this psychotic
Speaker 1: guy who lost US three elections in a row. But
Speaker 1: you know the reason why you ended up with so
Speaker 1: many fringe candidates who ran, you know, as Republicans and
Speaker 1: who actually got the nomination in a lot of key
Speaker 1: states and key races, etc. It really isn't so much
Speaker 1: about Trump endorsed them. It's about because that was what
Speaker 1: the Republican base was looking for. I mean, he Trump
Speaker 1: successfully made stop the steal, and where you stood on
Speaker 1: that issue like the most important litmus test in the
Speaker 1: Republican Party. You were with him or you were against him.
Speaker 1: You were either a sellout or you were you know,
Speaker 1: in a cock and a rhino, or you were like
Speaker 1: a true believer and you were in to say the
Speaker 1: truth unstop this deal. And I also don't really see
Speaker 1: any signs that that has particularly. Okay, don't don't deny though,
Speaker 1: that there is a Republican civil war going on at
Speaker 1: the grassroots level right now. And absolutely it's happening. You
Speaker 1: have Ben Shapiro and Candice Owens and those types versus
Speaker 1: Stephen Krafft. I would just peep that that even matters
Speaker 1: at all, But go ahead, Well, I'm just saying there's
Speaker 1: an actual split, there's a fight, and it's the same
Speaker 1: thing as people and Trump people. It's not like there's
Speaker 1: no fight in Trump already has this. It's a case absolutely,
Speaker 1: go ahead, Marshall. Well, what's interesting because I think you
Speaker 1: and I agree on this. I think I know where
Speaker 1: you're going. There's not a grassroots fight, but there really
Speaker 1: is an elite media, elite organizations. It's kind of like
Speaker 1: the political I mean, political parties aren't as powerful as
Speaker 1: they used to be in terms of like who really
Speaker 1: like who's even in charge of the RNC and the DNC,
Speaker 1: No one really knows anymore. But like what's happened is
Speaker 1: those parties have like separated into media organizations and nonprofits
Speaker 1: and thinkings, all these things used to be done by
Speaker 1: the parties themselves. That is where the fight's going on
Speaker 1: right now. So that's where people should be looking. You're
Speaker 1: not going to be It's not like back in the
Speaker 1: you know, nineteen fifties where you know, JFK and LBJ
Speaker 1: are battling over like state delegations from Wisconsin and Wyoming
Speaker 1: because the you know, party precinct committee chairman really matters there.
Speaker 1: So I think it's the But this is where I think,
Speaker 1: this is why we're overestimating disantas and I see this
Speaker 1: more on the right side. The elite structures I think
Speaker 1: matter on the Democratic side, not in the conspiratorial sense,
Speaker 1: but like capturing elite structures is a way of signifying
Speaker 1: electability and normalcy. On the Republican side, it doesn't really
Speaker 1: matter if DC likes you, if anything, that's probably a
Speaker 1: bad thing. I'm just from a pure political perspective. So
Speaker 1: that's a real difference between the two parties. Two. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm jealous of that. So there is some truth to that,
Speaker 1: and I'm very jealous of that. I have an update
Speaker 1: Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, who will be leaving the Biden
Speaker 1: administration to go and work for what is an airline union,
Speaker 1: the NHL, the NHL Players Association. That's right, the NHL
Speaker 1: Players Association. He is officially the designated survivor tonight, So
Speaker 1: congratulations to the Labor Secretary. Also for a George Santos update,
Speaker 1: there appears to have been an altercation between Mitt Romney
Speaker 1: and George Santos on the floor. I mean like Romney
Speaker 1: said something to him, uh, then he like looked away
Speaker 1: from him. Here, I'll play it for you, guys. Do
Speaker 1: some like celebrity boxing thing. I don't, didn't he Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: here's what you can see. Romney says something to I
Speaker 1: wish we had this for you guys. I'm very sorry.
Speaker 1: But what you're watching is that Santos is pissed off
Speaker 1: and he's kind of like saying something back at him.
Speaker 1: So if I had to guess what he happened is
Speaker 1: he was like, you're a disgrace. Don't stand in the
Speaker 1: center issle. He might have said something though to that
Speaker 1: effect that wouldn't actually be a bad thing apparently. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So anyway, everybody on the everybody on the floor right
Speaker 1: now is making fun of George Santos want to shout
Speaker 1: out to the super chat right now saying I just
Speaker 1: want to say I appreciate you was able to get
Speaker 1: my twin brother to have more open mind by watching
Speaker 1: you could give your opinion on the future of the
Speaker 1: used car market, please and what politicians could do. I'll
Speaker 1: tell you what, sir, for the used car market. Keep
Speaker 1: watching the show and we will continue. I know that
Speaker 1: you have a high level of interest in that. And
Speaker 1: also thank you very much to the other superchats Marshall
Speaker 1: which said that you look like Forrest Whittaker. I enjoyed
Speaker 1: Will Black celebrity one of these people. It's just like,
Speaker 1: you know, just what's the most common something new, the
Speaker 1: most two. So the most common one is like Charlie
Speaker 1: from the West Wing. Oh right, gosh, if you're watching
Speaker 1: psych those were the those are the young day ones.
Speaker 1: So I want to please Sean di Stefano super Chat here.
Speaker 1: We give the politicians their jobs. We deserve the same
Speaker 1: healthcare they have. Republicans say they are pro life, so
Speaker 1: give everyone health care. Ah okay, agree, not a particularly
Speaker 1: original slogan. Given everybody health care, we'll go with it.
Speaker 1: Support that I'm able to entice saga, super chat person.
Speaker 1: You failed you were this close. I'm right, not nineteen
Speaker 1: nineties level dunks. But look, it's all right. We'll take
Speaker 1: it here over at breaking points before we go over
Speaker 1: to I think he'll be coming in here shortly. We
Speaker 1: may have to so we oh, yeah, we're getting to
Speaker 1: stand by from it's just a transparency. They're going to
Speaker 1: tell us whenever the president is walking in. You've got
Speaker 1: the whole iconic like, what is it, mister speaker? I
Speaker 1: guess it would be mister speaker again. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: the President of the United States and usually takes on
Speaker 1: average between like two to seven minutes to walk down
Speaker 1: the aisle. He like shakes a bunch of hands. Is
Speaker 1: the cameras we'll track him. We'll break in sometime around that.
Speaker 1: It is officially nine pm here on the East Coast,
Speaker 1: So that is officially when the president is scheduled to talk.
Speaker 1: For those who are wondering why it's nine pm and
Speaker 1: why it's past my bedtime while we're even doing this,
Speaker 1: that's because nine PM is the traditionals. Nine PM is
Speaker 1: the traditional, obviously primetime hour here in the United States.
Speaker 1: It's the most time in which eyeballs, or at least
Speaker 1: in the old times whenever people were watching linear TV
Speaker 1: are glued to the screen. Part of the reason why
Speaker 1: that they do it here at nine pm. Yes, and
Speaker 1: you can see right now, Oh, I see Pete talking
Speaker 1: to people, Joe Manchin, whatever. Anyway, they're all milling around talking,
Speaker 1: waiting for the President to come. But one thing I
Speaker 1: wanted to bring up before the speech, because this will
Speaker 1: undoubtedly be part of that. This is last year at
Speaker 1: the State of the Union. You know, this was right
Speaker 1: after Russia had invaded Ukraine. This was obviously incredibly important
Speaker 1: focus of the speech and it will continue to be,
Speaker 1: I'm sure an incredibly important focus of the speech. And
Speaker 1: one you know, critical political dividing line that is emerging
Speaker 1: is you have Trump really putting himself not just oppositional
Speaker 1: to Biden, but also to some of the other Republicans
Speaker 1: who might contest him in the primary in terms of saying,
Speaker 1: you know, we said no tanks, I would make a
Speaker 1: deal on the first day of my residency, et cetera,
Speaker 1: et cetera. So you have him trying to seize Marshall
Speaker 1: on the Ukraine War as a sort of key dividing
Speaker 1: line for him within the Republican primary, but also for
Speaker 1: a potential general election. Yeah. I think the interesting thing
Speaker 1: about the Yeah, it's kind of amazing we made it
Speaker 1: almost an hour of bringing up Ukraine. Look, I think
Speaker 1: the Ukraine War matters in so obviously with the Ukraine
Speaker 1: War matters what we're talking in terms of party politics here,
Speaker 1: the Ukraine War is an important like within the Republican
Speaker 1: party primary fight. It just right now in terms of
Speaker 1: where things are right now is not could be a
Speaker 1: big defin in general election issue. This is one which
Speaker 1: we also saw in terms of the midterm results. The
Speaker 1: status quos things are, the status quos things are right
Speaker 1: now is not one where the twenty twenty four election
Speaker 1: is determined by what's happening in Ukraine. It is going
Speaker 1: to be an opportunity for Trump because when Trump's talking
Speaker 1: about the piece, he's not really fighting against Joe Biden
Speaker 1: as much as trying to signal subtly you're sort of
Speaker 1: seeing talk of the sagar. You've noticed this that Ron
Speaker 1: DeSantis is actually much more hawkish on foreign policy, and
Speaker 1: he's let on and you know, and you actually know
Speaker 1: this is almost certainly true because he doesn't talk about
Speaker 1: it DeSantis is basically almost everything. We could all know
Speaker 1: Sasanta's positions on basically everything except for kind of China
Speaker 1: beyond like the court, so like a separate from cultural issues,
Speaker 1: so the TikTok stuff. We actually don't know where he's
Speaker 1: at when it comes to like issues like Taiwan. We
Speaker 1: don't know where he's that when it comes to Ukraine,
Speaker 1: which is strong evidence he's actually much more to the
Speaker 1: more traditional Republican Party people. To back that up, Trump
Speaker 1: has retruthed at least one or two things, calling DeSantis
Speaker 1: a globalist on Ukraine. He has had taken some potshots
Speaker 1: at him on there. I actually agree, which is one
Speaker 1: of the things that Trump. What I think Trump is
Speaker 1: fantastic at is saying the politically popular thing that nobody
Speaker 1: wants to say from a political correctness point of view.
Speaker 1: Right now, he literally is the only major national figure
Speaker 1: on the other side of Ukraine. Although look, let's be honest,
Speaker 1: he's been all over the place called for bombing the
Speaker 1: Chinese planes my personal favorite one that he's always had
Speaker 1: out there. What would he actually do in the event
Speaker 1: of all this, and should he get elected, I have
Speaker 1: no idea. By the way, history suggested he would be yeah,
Speaker 1: well this is this is what's this what's interesting? They're like,
Speaker 1: I just want to push back up in new saying
Speaker 1: it's like it's like unclear whether it's the thing. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's actually not, it's not right now right now, like
Speaker 1: it's it's good. Well, no, I don't think that's true.
Speaker 1: It's exactly fifty to fifty. But the point is, I
Speaker 1: think it's kind of so. I guess thats what we're
Speaker 1: trying to say here because from my perspective, we are
Speaker 1: in the Ukrainians. We don't put American boots in the ground.
Speaker 1: That's the majority position right now. That's actually in terms
Speaker 1: of the way the debate is being framed, that's not
Speaker 1: really how it's looking right now. In terms of the
Speaker 1: Act's fifty polling, what's polling, it's for fifty to fifty
Speaker 1: for all continual aid to Ukraine from here on out.
Speaker 1: So that's not very popular, but that's not But it's
Speaker 1: the key thing though, is soccer. That's not the debate anymore.
Speaker 1: Like the Republican parties are like was the House like,
Speaker 1: you're not going to see massive, massive, massive packages because
Speaker 1: we got to we got to pull out of this
Speaker 1: because the President is actually coming in now. So let's
Speaker 1: go ahead, guys, and we'll throw here to the president.
Speaker 1: We'll watch this. We're going to active all right. You have,
Speaker 1: of course been listening to the President of the United
Speaker 1: States delivering his State of the Union, leaning heavily into
Speaker 1: an economic message front and center at the top. But
Speaker 1: I think probably the thing a lot of people will
Speaker 1: pay the most attention to is how raucous the Republicans were.
Speaker 1: You had Marjorie Taylor Green yelling you're a liar. Lots
Speaker 1: of especially over his comments about Social Security and Medicare.
Speaker 1: There's a big uproar. They were yelling at him about
Speaker 1: the border and other things. Kyle, let me go to
Speaker 1: you first of all, what were your sort of big
Speaker 1: takeaways bigees. Well, I like the fact that most of
Speaker 1: the speech was economic, and the early part was economic.
Speaker 1: I feel like that, you know, if you lean into that,
Speaker 1: that's positive and that'll get a good reaction, I think.
Speaker 1: But obviously, yeah, the bigger story is how I'll go
Speaker 1: with the word annoying, How annoying the room was, And
Speaker 1: I'm very curious to throw it to you, guys. I
Speaker 1: don't know if it's just because I'm getting old. I
Speaker 1: don't know if it's because I'm tired and it's past
Speaker 1: my bedtime. But every single time somebody chirped up, I
Speaker 1: was like, shut up, just wrap it up. I don't
Speaker 1: want to hear it. It's annoying. He's speaking. He's the president,
Speaker 1: even if he wasn't the president, if he was Bob
Speaker 1: from the PTA meeting. It's like, let Bob finish his thought.
Speaker 1: Because they're all just trying to get a viral moment.
Speaker 1: They're all just trying to fundraise off it because of
Speaker 1: the Joe Wilson moment back when Obama was president and
Speaker 1: he screamed to you lie and they had massive fundraising numbers.
Speaker 1: It's like, I get it, I get it, I get it.
Speaker 1: You're all virtue signaling. You're all trying to get you know,
Speaker 1: the spotlight on you. But it's it's dumb and it's annoying.
Speaker 1: Do you guys agree with me? I'm not so sure.
Speaker 1: Here's the thing. In terms of my objective feelings about
Speaker 1: or in terms of my personal feelings about it, I'm indifferent.
Speaker 1: If anything, I actually do kind of enjoy it, just
Speaker 1: because I like the idea of a raucous house of
Speaker 1: representatives that said, look, if it's all fake and it's
Speaker 1: all a stage, then these people are gonna have to
Speaker 1: play their part. Right. You pointed to that Marjorie knows
Speaker 1: exactly what she's doing. She's absolutely gonna raise a lot
Speaker 1: of money. But I would even step back. I don't
Speaker 1: think that was the biggest story that's going to come
Speaker 1: out of that. It might be a twenty four hour
Speaker 1: thing and some people will be like, oh my god,
Speaker 1: my norms. Guys. The biggest story the takeaway is whenever
Speaker 1: he would confronting them directly on Medicare and Social Security.
Speaker 1: I mean in terms of the take like, in terms
Speaker 1: of what we will be talking about probably for weeks now.
Speaker 1: That moment is going to get replayed over and over
Speaker 1: again when he's like, okay, are we all agreed here?
Speaker 1: Oh so you agree with me, so it's not going
Speaker 1: to be a problem. Stand up if you agree with me.
Speaker 1: That was actually Look, I'll give the man credit. That
Speaker 1: was the best absolute part of the speech. It was
Speaker 1: the only part where he went off script and it
Speaker 1: did actually work for him. Are there were a couple
Speaker 1: what did he say? Name a man who would trade
Speaker 1: places with Jijinping. I still do not know exactly what
Speaker 1: that means. All right, So, like my meta takeaway, I
Speaker 1: was telling you guys this during the speech, vast majority
Speaker 1: of people stop watching the State of the Union after
Speaker 1: about thirty to forty five minutes. Yeah, the first thirty
Speaker 1: forty five minutes was all an economic message. Most of
Speaker 1: it was made in America. I mean, look, not even
Speaker 1: President Obama ever gave a maide in America speech like that,
Speaker 1: And to me, that just shows me the way that
Speaker 1: Donald Trump really changed politics forever on made in America
Speaker 1: and on China. So those two issues, it's solidly in
Speaker 1: this State of the Union. No president even almost disagrees
Speaker 1: now at that point, So for the Medicare and the
Speaker 1: Social Security and then I thought overall it was an
Speaker 1: effective speech as far as biden ones goes. If I
Speaker 1: were him, you know, I'd be pretty happy with my performance. Marshall,
Speaker 1: I want to get your thoughts. I sort of feel
Speaker 1: like with the Republican interruptions, etc. Biden really led with
Speaker 1: this message of like bipartisanship and unity. He made a
Speaker 1: long show at the beginning of congratulations to Kevin McCarthy,
Speaker 1: Congratulations to Mitch McConnell, we're going to work together. We
Speaker 1: did work together in the past, so he wanted this
Speaker 1: message of like, I'm the guy who's here to work
Speaker 1: with anybody. We've gotten some things done together, et cetera.
Speaker 1: And so it certainly serves Marjorie Taylor, Greens and whoever
Speaker 1: else is interest to get their little viral moments for
Speaker 1: their Republican based fundraising. But I also do feel like
Speaker 1: that sort of plays into Biden's hands as well, when
Speaker 1: he's trying to portray himself as the grown up in
Speaker 1: the room and the one that's serious about actually reaching
Speaker 1: out and getting things done. Yeah, that's It's what we're
Speaker 1: talking about the start of the real, you know, live
Speaker 1: show here, which is that voters like hearing that you
Speaker 1: know you could you could Obviously, I think I think
Speaker 1: it's important to separate the like annoying DC version of like, oh,
Speaker 1: back in the eighties, everything was super Jaill and everyone
Speaker 1: was best friends, the Gipper and Tip O'Neal like that,
Speaker 1: you know, you know, the Joe Scarborough thing. But at
Speaker 1: a baseline level, the centerpiece of American politics right now
Speaker 1: is what like suburban moderate voters think and they want
Speaker 1: to hear that Marjorie Hyler Green's district may be interested
Speaker 1: in her doing that performance, but no one else is.
Speaker 1: And that's a real misjudgment that could be effective in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. Yeah, exactly. I mean, look, let's step back.
Speaker 1: What did we say at the top, or at least
Speaker 1: for what I said, I said, the balance is economy.
Speaker 1: Lead yourself, try to gaslight a little bit about oh,
Speaker 1: everything's great, you know all of that. At the same time,
Speaker 1: you're like, I'm a bulwark again. So what did he
Speaker 1: lead with? He goes, here's all the things I've done,
Speaker 1: goes straight into the bulwark against Medicare, social Security, I
Speaker 1: will veto And what does the end on? He ends
Speaker 1: exactly on stop the steal. Now, look saying the pop
Speaker 1: Folosi attack at any to do anything to do with
Speaker 1: quote the big lie and not schizophrenia is ridiculous. However,
Speaker 1: politically savvy move, I think people say so right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: so it's like one of those where it wasn't you know,
Speaker 1: you tie those two things together and you know it's savvy.
Speaker 1: I think in that regard, you end on the democracy
Speaker 1: thing that really kept people there. So look, I think
Speaker 1: he hit all the notes, it clocked in it and
Speaker 1: around an hour fifteen minutes, as state of the unions go,
Speaker 1: that's pretty average. I mean overall, again, I just come
Speaker 1: back to him like effective job. I really think so.
Speaker 1: So one of the things I had, I jotted down
Speaker 1: a bunch of this stuff that I thought was most interesting.
Speaker 1: One of my favorite lines was he was talking about
Speaker 1: the fifteen percent minimum tax rate for corporations worth over
Speaker 1: a billion dollars and he says they have to pay
Speaker 1: a minimum fifteen percent and then he said like kind
Speaker 1: of casually and flippantly, God love them. Yeah, and that
Speaker 1: got a decent laugh, and you know, I was chuckling here.
Speaker 1: I thought that was a good line. I noticed early on.
Speaker 1: One of the very first lines was like we've created
Speaker 1: twelve million jobs. And then ah, everybody starts clapping, and
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy sitting there like, yeah, I will not clap
Speaker 1: at twelve million new jobs. It's like, dude, this is
Speaker 1: one of the ones that it's like you have to
Speaker 1: do it just to look like you're saying and then
Speaker 1: like you were pointing out the Social Security and Medicare
Speaker 1: moment there. What I was getting really annoyed by is
Speaker 1: like just own it. It is a lot of the
Speaker 1: Republican's position too, that they want to cut it. They
Speaker 1: might soften the language to try to blunt the effect
Speaker 1: by saying no, we're just trying to reform it or
Speaker 1: save it, but functionally they want to cut it. And
Speaker 1: when he says that's what they want to do, and
Speaker 1: they're like boo boo boo, it strikes me as so disingenuous,
Speaker 1: like just say, yes, this is our position, and we
Speaker 1: would like to debate that on the merits, and we
Speaker 1: would like to defend the position of cutting sold security.
Speaker 1: They get so weasily about it, and that's what was
Speaker 1: driving me crazy. I was screaming about it here in
Speaker 1: the studio when we were watching it. So the thing
Speaker 1: that he's referring to specifically when he talks about like
Speaker 1: sunsetting these provisions was what Senator Rick Scott, who was
Speaker 1: in charge of the Republican senatorial right campaigns this time around,
Speaker 1: so not like an instant significant player, it was part
Speaker 1: of the plan that he put out. And this was
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell was basically like, shut the f up, we
Speaker 1: don't want to talk about that. We're trying to run
Speaker 1: on nothing. Here and just like bash the mon inflation.
Speaker 1: So this is not without basis. And you've had other
Speaker 1: Republicans also talking about the dead ceiling, talking about cuts
Speaker 1: to entitlements. You have had some others who say, no, no,
Speaker 1: we don't want to do that. Donald Trump obviously said like,
Speaker 1: this is off the table. But what's sort of more
Speaker 1: interesting to me is I feel like in previous eras
Speaker 1: in the Mitt Romney Paul Ryan era, they were much
Speaker 1: more comfortable owning the fact that they really wanted to
Speaker 1: cut Social Security in Medicare. Like if Obama had said
Speaker 1: that at a State of the Union, they would have
Speaker 1: been like, yes, we do, and here's our plan, and
Speaker 1: here's Paul Ryan with the PowerPoint of how he's going
Speaker 1: to do it. And so I mean, this is another
Speaker 1: way that even though you still have a lot of
Speaker 1: the same ideology, even though many of them still are
Speaker 1: committed to it would like to cut Social Security and Medicare,
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, the fact that they're offended that
Speaker 1: this is suggested about them, that they want to cut
Speaker 1: these programs represents a pretty remarkable shift in terms of
Speaker 1: the Republican Party and what they want to publicly put forward.
Speaker 1: What do you think of that, Marshall. Yeah, and that's
Speaker 1: a great way to put it in Crystal, I mean
Speaker 1: the core thing as you guys particularly, and this really
Speaker 1: reminds me of the defund the police debate in terms
Speaker 1: of like how you could identify our vulnerable area. So
Speaker 1: think of defund back in twenty twenty. There were some
Speaker 1: Democrats who were very defund. There are plenty of modern
Speaker 1: Democrats who weren't vulnerable. You can take the more extreme
Speaker 1: position as the party's trying to figure it out, and
Speaker 1: that's as an attack point. That's basically what's happening or
Speaker 1: social security Back in the two thousands, I think of
Speaker 1: when George W. Bush tried to reform slash cut, slash
Speaker 1: privatize social Security after one re election in two thousand
Speaker 1: and five. Like back then, the party consensus was that
Speaker 1: this is what we do. We fight against the new deal.
Speaker 1: We're fighting against the great society that's our party. After
Speaker 1: the social security privatization failed, after Paul Ryan flopped as
Speaker 1: a VP, and then after Trump then ran in favor
Speaker 1: of social security and in favor of Medicare Medicare also
Speaker 1: when need to add the failure of the repeal Oh Obamacare,
Speaker 1: Republicans genuinely don't know what to think. I think as
Speaker 1: you see. And the thing that's funny, Kyle, I get
Speaker 1: your point, need to have a fair debate, and I
Speaker 1: agree with you most of the time. But like JD. Vans,
Speaker 1: for example, Jad Dance like, actually wouldn't be in favor
Speaker 1: of cutting Social Security. He came out. I don't think
Speaker 1: he's the I don't think he's the best from I
Speaker 1: don't think he's the majority of the party. But especially
Speaker 1: with younger Republicans who are basically grown up in an
Speaker 1: America that's accepted the New Deal, but it's accepted social Security,
Speaker 1: it's actually not quite clear what the actual position is,
Speaker 1: which is why it's perfect for Joe Biden to attack
Speaker 1: in that direction. I completely agree with that characters. The
Speaker 1: defund is exactly right right, which is one of those
Speaker 1: they're like, no, no, no, what we want to do
Speaker 1: is raise the retirement age. It's like, well, okay, well
Speaker 1: you know you're still when you're already within that heuristic,
Speaker 1: It's like, it's not going to be good for you.
Speaker 1: Just so people know, cutting Social Security and Medicare is
Speaker 1: probably up there with defund the police and affirmative action
Speaker 1: as the least popular things that you could actually try
Speaker 1: and do in politics. Hence why he beats him over
Speaker 1: the head with the club with it, which is exactly
Speaker 1: what I would do. I was surprised that he didn't
Speaker 1: have been mentioned abortion more speech. My count was a
Speaker 1: single line. It came let's say like two thirds or
Speaker 1: so into that. I was pretty shocked by that. Actually,
Speaker 1: that's something I would have led with if I was president.
Speaker 1: So I just want to say, look, I hope I'm wrong,
Speaker 1: But we just saw with this whole fight with getting
Speaker 1: Kevin MacArthur to be speaker, there was a whole fight,
Speaker 1: and there was a right flank that was pushing back
Speaker 1: against him. And one of the things they settled on
Speaker 1: is we're going to have a debt ceiling showdown. And
Speaker 1: our whole position in the debt ceiling showdown is we
Speaker 1: want to force cuts to Social Security and Medicare. So
Speaker 1: I think the overwhelming majority of the party is going
Speaker 1: to be on board with that. Now, whether or not,
Speaker 1: you know, I hope Biden is telling the truth when
Speaker 1: he's like, I'm not going to do some sort of
Speaker 1: grand bargain. I'm not going to cut it at all.
Speaker 1: But I think the predominant position in the Republican Party
Speaker 1: is let's cut it. Well, I'm not so sure because
Speaker 1: remember that's only seventeen people, right who tried to extract that.
Speaker 1: Those are like the Tea Party of Freedom, caccus diehards.
Speaker 1: What the look the majority? I genuinely have no idea.
Speaker 1: I do not know. If you were to ask me
Speaker 1: my gut feeling, I think most of them would say
Speaker 1: what I said, something around like they want to raise
Speaker 1: the retirement age, but of course we don't. But that's
Speaker 1: that's a cover. Yeah, I agree with you. What I'm
Speaker 1: saying is like, that is what I think most of them.
Speaker 1: They don't. They don't want their position to be characterized
Speaker 1: as cuttings. That's different. That's the line, right, But that
Speaker 1: is even just them not wanting their position to be
Speaker 1: characterized that way is very different. And of course the
Speaker 1: fact that I mean Joe Biden was part of the
Speaker 1: Obama administration that actually put a deal on the table
Speaker 1: that would have cut Social Security and now clear and
Speaker 1: he you know, over the course of his career a
Speaker 1: number of times talked about cutting Social Security. So it
Speaker 1: does show you the way that the politics around this
Speaker 1: issue have clearly shifted. Now. One thing I think that's
Speaker 1: really important to say is that in terms of the
Speaker 1: big money institutions within the Republican Party, like the think
Speaker 1: tanks and you know, the coke industry of the Coke Network,
Speaker 1: they still are very much looking for every opportunity they
Speaker 1: can possibly find to cut these programs, and that matters
Speaker 1: a lot. I think they want to have their cake
Speaker 1: and eat it too. They want to like piss on
Speaker 1: people and say it's raining, so they want to do
Speaker 1: the dead ceiling thing, force the customing go oh, we're
Speaker 1: not we're just performing it. We're saving it. So that's
Speaker 1: that's what they've that's their game. That's what their game
Speaker 1: has been for a long time. So I think that's
Speaker 1: the goal. It's not like they're actually becoming more moderate
Speaker 1: on it because they're afraid to acknowledge what their actual position.
Speaker 1: They recognize how toxic and terrible the politics are for them.
Speaker 1: They recognize that they cannot be out and out being like, yes,
Speaker 1: we want to cut social Security because they have realized
Speaker 1: that that is devastating for them. I want to pick
Speaker 1: up saga on what you were saying, because that was
Speaker 1: something I noted too. You know, in advance, you were
Speaker 1: saying like, okay, here's the formula. Yes, economics, but clearly
Speaker 1: the stop the steal stuff in January sixth and abortion,
Speaker 1: like that's what won the midterm, So he's going to
Speaker 1: lean into that. He really didn't both. He closed with democracy.
Speaker 1: He closed with January sixth, Paul Pelosi with abortion was
Speaker 1: also in the latter part of the speech, but the
Speaker 1: part that really counts in terms of what they're you know,
Speaker 1: focused on and what the message they want to take away.
Speaker 1: It really was loaded up with economics, and I was
Speaker 1: also surprised that you had very little mention of abortion
Speaker 1: ultimately in this speech. I mean, the two themes that
Speaker 1: he leaned into very heavily to start with was this
Speaker 1: idea of like, I'm the guy who can work with anyone, bipartisanship,
Speaker 1: let's get things done for the American people, and then
Speaker 1: laying out the case of what he thinks he's delivered
Speaker 1: and what he still wants to do now. One challenge
Speaker 1: for him is the fact that we were looking at
Speaker 1: a poll before the speech, very few people say they
Speaker 1: feel like they've been impacted by the Biden agenda. So
Speaker 1: you know, whereas I think if you're over selling the
Speaker 1: economy and the rosy picture of the economy, you're going
Speaker 1: to have a hard time. There probably is some benefit
Speaker 1: you can get just from selling here's the things we did,
Speaker 1: and going down the list and trying to persuade people
Speaker 1: that know, actually we have been doing some stuff. What
Speaker 1: do you think, Marshall, Yeah, I think it's I just
Speaker 1: want to go back to a quick thing you said
Speaker 1: about the lack of focus on the abortion and the
Speaker 1: democracy thing, Like maybe I think this kind of goes
Speaker 1: to my early comment about how I'd be curious about
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's like political analysis here, and it seems to
Speaker 1: be the political analysis is that you need to move
Speaker 1: on from twenty twenty two, like you're going to reach
Speaker 1: those heights, you're going to be successful that midterm. But
Speaker 1: maybe that's just not going to be successful running on
Speaker 1: that retread when it comes to twenty twenty three, Like
Speaker 1: there could be an instinct of like, man, we're going
Speaker 1: to still like you're still talking about that, it's not
Speaker 1: up for grabs as much. So Yeah, I'm really I'm
Speaker 1: really curious how the right responds to the economic stuff,
Speaker 1: especially soccer to your point about how Biden and Team
Speaker 1: Biden are clearly taking the like made in America compete
Speaker 1: with China bit that Trump added. So that, especially given
Speaker 1: the I think attempt to bring things back to the
Speaker 1: culture wars, is going to be interesting ship there. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I already know what they're going to do. They're gonna
Speaker 1: go culture war. They're going to criticize them on the border,
Speaker 1: and they're just not going to talk about econ because
Speaker 1: that's out going anyway. Kyle, let's get our last thoughts
Speaker 1: from you before we bring in and Ryan and Emly. Sure. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So I wanted to point out the fentanyl line from Biden.
Speaker 1: So he's over there talking about fentanyl and you have
Speaker 1: Marjorie Taylor Green and others start screaming at him. And
Speaker 1: I heard somebody say China, yes, and then somebody say
Speaker 1: like it's your fault or something like that. To be fair,
Speaker 1: the vast majority of the fentanyl comes from China. Okay,
Speaker 1: I know I understand that, but I always get super
Speaker 1: triggered over this because I feel like the approach from
Speaker 1: many people is just brain dead. Because Chris and I
Speaker 1: have talked about this about thirty thousand people a year
Speaker 1: die from overdoses. When it was the pain pills. Then
Speaker 1: we cracked down on the pain pills with all the
Speaker 1: good intentions in the world, and then people went to
Speaker 1: the black market and they got heroin. Some of that
Speaker 1: heroin was laced with fentanyl, and now we have about
Speaker 1: one hundred thousand people dying every year. So it's this
Speaker 1: like the tyranny of good intentions in a sense, because
Speaker 1: if I were to tell somebody like Marjorie Taylor Green, like,
Speaker 1: hey man, we need to legalize, tax and regulate drugs
Speaker 1: in order to get past this whole fentanyl crisis, should
Speaker 1: be like, you're insane. That would add to the problem. Well,
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's a fair point. I think
Speaker 1: it's also a fair point to say, like, there is
Speaker 1: a lot of fentanyl coming across the border, and from
Speaker 1: what I've seen, they've said that actually, if you did
Speaker 1: at least have some more enforcement that was happening there,
Speaker 1: it would make it much harder and raise the price,
Speaker 1: which would increase actually the amount of pure heroin. Now
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that's necessarily a good thing. What I'm
Speaker 1: saying is it's complicated. I also would remind you we
Speaker 1: have to talk about what's in the realm of the
Speaker 1: possible and in that what was it in the polling
Speaker 1: data that we had there, which which one is that
Speaker 1: if we have that element, is that a three? Can
Speaker 1: we go ahead and put that up there on the screen.
Speaker 1: Pre research, I think cracking down on illegal drugs was
Speaker 1: at like fifty seven percent, So I mean, the public
Speaker 1: is just not there whenever it comes to now I
Speaker 1: understand that like legalizing there it is. Reducing the availability
Speaker 1: of illegal drugs is right there at fifty three percent.
Speaker 1: Biden also doesn't get credit though, when he'd a lot
Speaker 1: of Biden gets a lot of shots from his left
Speaker 1: on the border because he's continued a lot of the
Speaker 1: Trump policies on the border. So he does a lot
Speaker 1: of the things Trump has done. And it's not like
Speaker 1: anybody on the right goes, hey, we agree with you
Speaker 1: on this one fella, like he's not doing it. They
Speaker 1: act like he's in favor of open borders or something. Well,
Speaker 1: you're talking about migrants and tv Fair's administration has tried
Speaker 1: to end majority of those policies in court, and it's
Speaker 1: only after they weren't able to end those administration policies
Speaker 1: in court that they ended up keeping well, they not
Speaker 1: only kept him, they expanded them well, then the court
Speaker 1: then they also there has been a fentanyl seizures at
Speaker 1: the border. There's been a number of there's been some.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's like not trying to see. My point is, Look,
Speaker 1: we can keep going round and round in circles trying
Speaker 1: to do the same policy that's not working, or we
Speaker 1: can do the actual solution. But she's not interested in
Speaker 1: a real solution. She's interested in yelling at Biden in
Speaker 1: the middle of a speech when he's talking about a
Speaker 1: very serious issue like fentomyl I don't they need and
Speaker 1: needs to get serious on it? Two. I don't think
Speaker 1: anyone on this stream has claimed Marjorie is interested in
Speaker 1: and neither is there. We perhaps can can close this
Speaker 1: out with a something that will unify us in the
Speaker 1: spirit of what Joe Biden wanted to bring, which is
Speaker 1: both Kirsten Cinema and Marjorie Taylor Green apparently dressed like
Speaker 1: it was the Hunger Kid. Yes, what is going on?
Speaker 1: Wearing some yellow, big bird ass looking thing. People will
Speaker 1: have all kinds of memes and Marjorie Taylor Green and
Speaker 1: some white fur she looks like from lying lying the
Speaker 1: Witch in the wardrobe. I mean, look, I'm gonna break
Speaker 1: my cursing thing. This is driving me insane. What the
Speaker 1: fuck is going on? Like Kirston Cinema literally is dressing
Speaker 1: like she's going to the goddamn met Gala after presiding
Speaker 1: over the Senate in a T shirt with a heart
Speaker 1: on it. She is solely responsible for breaking a lot
Speaker 1: of female dress code that is there. And I blame
Speaker 1: her for Marjorie looking like she's literally in the Hunger Games,
Speaker 1: lying the witch, and there I am losing my goddamn
Speaker 1: mind over here, march over the collapse of dress code.
Speaker 1: Go ahead, Marshall, if we're gonna, if we're gonna, if
Speaker 1: we're gonna rank, I think we have to say, George
Speaker 1: Santos orange tie isn't great. I think Marjorie, I think margin.
Speaker 1: We'll let me put it this way. I think Marjorie's
Speaker 1: more compelled. Kirsten Cinema is work this way. Like if
Speaker 1: Marjorie showed up in yoga pants and a T shirt
Speaker 1: and you met at a coffee shop, she would still
Speaker 1: like have like a lot of like main character energy
Speaker 1: to her. I really think Kirsten cinema is someone who
Speaker 1: accessorizes to make up for the fact that she's just
Speaker 1: like so very I think that's insightful. Commentsar. Okay, everybody
Speaker 1: stick with us. Just give us five minutes. We're gonna
Speaker 1: switch the chairs out. We're gonna have Ryan and Emily
Speaker 1: in here. Thank you all so much for support control room.
Speaker 1: Let's throw the graphic up there and we'll start Michael Kyle.
Speaker 1: Guys had a fantastic job. Thanks for listening. Okay, we're back.
Speaker 1: Thank you everybody for sticking with us. Look at that
Speaker 1: wide shot. We got Ryan and Emily here, We got counterpoints,
Speaker 1: which is in the the house. If this were any
Speaker 1: other time, we would be doing a little bit of
Speaker 1: camera adjustment. But this is what looks like when it's live.
Speaker 1: When we have a brand new, beautiful studio that you
Speaker 1: premium subs are helping us with, it will be different,
Speaker 1: we promise. Okay, so people have heard us talk a
Speaker 1: little bit. Now, Ryan Emily watch a speech with us.
Speaker 1: What do you guys think? Bryan, you go first, all right.
Speaker 1: I mean, the thing that's most important to me about
Speaker 1: this is that it is the launch of his presidential campaign.
Speaker 1: So you're really not going to make a whole lot
Speaker 1: of policy, and you're not going to make a lot
Speaker 1: of you're not going to move the needle on public
Speaker 1: opinion and really on the ground or in the room.
Speaker 1: Except for that Medicare thing and Medicare and security thing,
Speaker 1: which was absolutely remarkable. We want to talk more about
Speaker 1: that in a minute. But if this is what he's
Speaker 1: going to run on, this is kind of exciting, Like
Speaker 1: this is this is a party that like working people
Speaker 1: could get behind. I mean, what did he talk about.
Speaker 1: He talked about, you know, supporting organized labor, past the
Speaker 1: pro Act, go after big pharma. We're going to address
Speaker 1: climate change. So we're going to you know, cap insulin prices,
Speaker 1: you know, Medicare, billionaire attacks, We're going to bust up
Speaker 1: monopolies and all the different fees. I'm going to a
Speaker 1: resort and it's not even a resort, and I'm playing
Speaker 1: a result fee. But you know that very personal friend's
Speaker 1: house that was clearly personally and his friends charged him
Speaker 1: a resort fee. But so so you Yeah, and he's
Speaker 1: going for the identity theft and some funny stuff like that,
Speaker 1: like somebody people are getting to him. Yeah, But in general,
Speaker 1: it's that's a platform that people could get behind. It's
Speaker 1: it's strange, It was a lot of Matt Stoller was
Speaker 1: very excited in this because he's talking about anti trust.
Speaker 1: What was it first present? The first presence, it's nineteen
Speaker 1: seventy nine. To mention anti trust, you're talking about industrial policy,
Speaker 1: you're talking about making things in America, making things in America.
Speaker 1: And then you know, I mean, I'm not big on
Speaker 1: this whole squishy like bipartisan comedy whatever, but there are
Speaker 1: a lot of people who are really into that. That's
Speaker 1: a very normy sentiment of like, why can't we all
Speaker 1: just come together and get some things done? What I
Speaker 1: said earlier, Emily, and I want to get your thoughts
Speaker 1: on the whole thing, though, is I think the fact
Speaker 1: that you had this sort of ugly raucousness from the
Speaker 1: Republicans in there really did kind of play into Biden's
Speaker 1: hands of looking like the grown up in the room.
Speaker 1: He looked in control too. He was almost like engaging
Speaker 1: with the cloud. He let them finish. He wasn't and
Speaker 1: he wasn't heckling them back. He let them finish. So
Speaker 1: I think optically that's one hundred percent correct. That did
Speaker 1: not work in the way that let's say Marjorie Taylor
Speaker 1: Green or whomever else was involved, and it wanted it
Speaker 1: to work. That said to Ryan's point, and actually Kyle
Speaker 1: made this point too. He gave a speech that was
Speaker 1: so front loaded on economics, and that's really smart. If
Speaker 1: you were Biden's speechwriters, you should be really happy with
Speaker 1: how this turned out. He's sort of checking down, going
Speaker 1: through the laundry list and flashing out actually not just
Speaker 1: listing off, but fleshing out things like infrastructure, things like
Speaker 1: the Chips Act. Now to the bipartisanship point, I think
Speaker 1: that's a fascinating point because it works with people until
Speaker 1: the country stops working. Because he had a line earlier
Speaker 1: where he talked about basically decades of hollowing out the
Speaker 1: middle class. Who was in the Senate, who was the
Speaker 1: senator for MasterCard with identity theft. Yes, I brought that up,
Speaker 1: middle class. I mean, it's just like, so that's a
Speaker 1: real problem for Biden, and I think he has never
Speaker 1: had a real answer to confronting it head on politically.
Speaker 1: But tacking in that direction, it's not just good news
Speaker 1: for Democrats, it's good news for the country that Republicans
Speaker 1: at least optically, were so vehemently offended by what Joe
Speaker 1: Biden said with social security medicaaracters. They said, Kevin McCarthy
Speaker 1: gave his whole speech last night. It's off the table.
Speaker 1: It's off the table. That's good news for the country
Speaker 1: because it tells you where the Overton window is. You
Speaker 1: know what's funny, I'm monitoring the professional press corps. What
Speaker 1: are they all talking about decorum in the House. I'm like,
Speaker 1: who cares about the decorum? Like, look, I'm not saying
Speaker 1: it isn't a thing, but social security, people, medicare, that
Speaker 1: is that is going to define the next couple of
Speaker 1: months of our politics. It's driving me nuts. And like
Speaker 1: that was the first thing I zeroed in on. I
Speaker 1: was like, man, that's a big moment. That is going
Speaker 1: to be every ad, the Biden ad, the launch. I'm
Speaker 1: the one who protected it. I will veto the Bill
Speaker 1: crystals picking up on the fact that Republicans are not
Speaker 1: willing to go there yet. This also puts Trump on
Speaker 1: the back foot where he's like, no, they're lying that
Speaker 1: we don't want to cut those security but he doesn't
Speaker 1: have a unified coalition. I'm like, this is it. This
Speaker 1: is the whole ballgame, Ryan, So what else do you
Speaker 1: want to dig into on yeah and yeah? For decades
Speaker 1: on the left, there's been this internal argument, do you
Speaker 1: work within the Democratic Party to try to make the
Speaker 1: Democratic Party a better thing? Or do you work outside
Speaker 1: at you start a third party and try to pressure
Speaker 1: them from there. As the working class is kind of
Speaker 1: being divided by between the two parties here, a kind
Speaker 1: of new answer is emerging, which is that you actually
Speaker 1: work within both parties. And Joe Biden did that tonight,
Speaker 1: Like I've never seen a speech like that kind of
Speaker 1: change the negotiating table, change the game in the way
Speaker 1: it did before this speech. Republicans had their game plan
Speaker 1: for when it came to the debt ceiling crisis. You know,
Speaker 1: they're going to hold it hostage. They're going to force
Speaker 1: behind the table or get some cuts, and then they're
Speaker 1: going to agree to it the same way that they
Speaker 1: jammed Biden up ten years ago. They come out of
Speaker 1: this speech with nothing left, right, Like, so what do they? Okay? Well,
Speaker 1: now what are you going to do? You're not cutting
Speaker 1: military spending because you're Republicans. Now, you can't cut solid
Speaker 1: security and medicare because you just told the whole country
Speaker 1: that he's a liar and that you would never do
Speaker 1: such a thing. So you're left with the EPA, and
Speaker 1: like Noah and the BLM, they can cut BLM and
Speaker 1: tell their base that it's Black Lives matter, and actually
Speaker 1: they can trim the Bureau of Land Management. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: was gonna say alone, understand he's going to fly back
Speaker 1: for that meeting and defend his budget. Well, I do
Speaker 1: to your point, because they obviously took great umbrage at
Speaker 1: the suggestion that they wanted to Medicaid. They want to
Speaker 1: save it, they will strengthen it, right, But I mean
Speaker 1: the numbers just don't work out, Like the math just
Speaker 1: doesn't work out. If you're like, I want to slash
Speaker 1: the budget by this huge amount, right, which they do
Speaker 1: in which they've said publicly, But I don't want to
Speaker 1: touch those security Medican like it just literally doesn't or
Speaker 1: the Pentagon, if we put those together, it's not going
Speaker 1: to work out for you. And so that's why it
Speaker 1: is a fair hit to say to them, like, no,
Speaker 1: you want to hold the debt sealing hostage, you want
Speaker 1: to cut these programs. You have a track record of
Speaker 1: wanting to cut these programs center Rex Scott said, you
Speaker 1: want to cut these programs, and it was pretty remarkable
Speaker 1: to see how much they freaked out about that. And
Speaker 1: a good sign though, again because this is post Paul
Speaker 1: Ryan politics and Republicans have realized, I mean, you can
Speaker 1: cut the entire Pentagon. This is per Brian Ridle at
Speaker 1: the Manhattan Institute. You could literally get rid of the
Speaker 1: Department of Defense, and you can't balance the entitlement balance
Speaker 1: sheet in the way that Republicans say that they want to.
Speaker 1: And there's a reckoning with that on the right right now.
Speaker 1: That doesn't mean that Mitch McConnell wouldn't love to get
Speaker 1: his hands on and strengthen Social Security in money of it,
Speaker 1: but I think it's at least sort of becoming. And
Speaker 1: again I think this is good for the American people.
Speaker 1: You have JD. Vance, Donald Trump coming out and saying
Speaker 1: the same thing and setting the tone. You have Russ Vote,
Speaker 1: who's hugely influential in the New Right and Republican politics.
Speaker 1: His entire plan to balance the budget he was omb
Speaker 1: under Trump is don't touch those Security and Medicaid you
Speaker 1: can get rid of. To the point that you guys
Speaker 1: are making all of the woke policies and you don't
Speaker 1: have to. You can balance the budget in ten years
Speaker 1: without touching anything else. And just the fact that the
Speaker 1: wheels are in motion on that tells you that Republicans
Speaker 1: are like, no, we literally cannot even whisper a word
Speaker 1: about it, and if it comes out of your mouth,
Speaker 1: we are putting you in the corner. That's a really
Speaker 1: interesting point. We got Marshall and Kyle's reaction. I was
Speaker 1: curious for your guys reaction. So right now Sarah Huckabe
Speaker 1: Sanders is giving her Rebuttal, I don't know who's watching it,
Speaker 1: but we have an excerpt, and I think the excerpt
Speaker 1: is important more so, and what's not in it and
Speaker 1: what is in it and what the case of what
Speaker 1: the potential Republican pushback against this is going to be.
Speaker 1: I'll just read this again. And the radical lefts America,
Speaker 1: Washington taxes you and relights your hard earned money on fire.
Speaker 1: You get crushed with high gas prices, empty grocery shells.
Speaker 1: Our children are taught to hate one another on account
Speaker 1: of their race, but not to love one another or
Speaker 1: a great country. And while you reap the consequences of
Speaker 1: your failure. The Biden administration seems more interested in wolk
Speaker 1: fantasies than the hard reality that Americans face every day.
Speaker 1: Most Americans simply want to live their lives in freedom
Speaker 1: and peace. We are under attack in a left wing
Speaker 1: culture war that we didn't start and we never wanted
Speaker 1: to fight. Emily, what did you think of the strategy
Speaker 1: there to really go hard at the culture war? To
Speaker 1: be fair, she didn't actually watch the speech before she
Speaker 1: really said excerpt so clearly. But I mean that's kind
Speaker 1: of how all these things work. You get a predetermined
Speaker 1: little fact sheet and all that. What do you think
Speaker 1: of that strategy? That's a really good study in contrasts,
Speaker 1: I think because she expects Biden to come out, which
Speaker 1: is wrong. I mean, it's a good example of how
Speaker 1: Republicans are disconnected from the Biden that they're actually fighting
Speaker 1: as opposed to the straw man. And then it's not
Speaker 1: to say that Biden isn't doing stuff in the culture war.
Speaker 1: Of course, he is sort of bureaucratically in the executive
Speaker 1: that's in the ZOJ right, it's not a national name, right,
Speaker 1: and the Education Department and all these things that people
Speaker 1: aren't necessarily able to follow on a single day to
Speaker 1: day basis, but that Sarah Hackeby Sanders comes out anticipating
Speaker 1: a Biden culture war speeds speech, and what she gets
Speaker 1: is something like what Stolar points out, the first president
Speaker 1: to champion an anti trust reformist State of the Union
Speaker 1: since nineteen seventy nine. I haven't seen the full Sarah
Speaker 1: Hockeby Sanders speech yet, but man, is that going to
Speaker 1: miss the mark if Biden is out there talking about
Speaker 1: increasing manufacturing, increasing jobs, increasing decreasing unemployment in all of
Speaker 1: these economic metrics. She said the choices between normal and
Speaker 1: were crazy. This is a quote I just saw from Twitter.
Speaker 1: Republicans punching at a culture war straw Man is not
Speaker 1: giving people that choice very clearly. She's saying, yeah, right,
Speaker 1: but that's their problem because Biden is the one that
Speaker 1: comes off as normal. This is yeah, that's right. And
Speaker 1: that's why that's Biden's strength is in some ways his weakness.
Speaker 1: He's this like centrist old white man and it's just
Speaker 1: not gonna land. You're just not gonna call him a
Speaker 1: radical Wolkester, and it's that have it stick. Yeah, Then
Speaker 1: Jesse was like Jesse Waters or somebody said, people just
Speaker 1: don't hate Joe Biden. Yeah, true, it's something. So on
Speaker 1: the other hand, let's go ahead and put what is
Speaker 1: this be three guys that we could put up on
Speaker 1: the screen. Here from the Washington Post, where you have
Speaker 1: the latest post ABC poll, which had a lot of
Speaker 1: bad numbers for Joe Biden, says more than six and
Speaker 1: ten say the president has not accomplished much, despite they
Speaker 1: say the passage of numerous bills, which is true. Sixty
Speaker 1: two percent of Americans say Biden has accomplished not very
Speaker 1: much or little or nothing during his presidency. Only thirty
Speaker 1: six percent say is accomplish a great deal or a
Speaker 1: good amount. His approval rating is low. We shared a
Speaker 1: poll earlier that has him losing to Donald Trump. Of course,
Speaker 1: a lot of polls out there too, having losen to
Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis. If DeSantis ends up being the nominee, you
Speaker 1: have a majority of Democrats, Ryan, who say we don't
Speaker 1: want this guy to run again. We want someone else. So,
Speaker 1: even as you know, I listened to that speech, and
Speaker 1: there's a lot in there that you know, I respond to.
Speaker 1: I think it's a good case he makes about what
Speaker 1: he's done, about what he might do going forward, laying
Speaker 1: out industrial policy, anti trust, pro labor, et cetera. But
Speaker 1: there's a lot of signs American people aren't really feeling
Speaker 1: that right now. The flip side of nobody hating Joe
Speaker 1: Biden is that nobody really likes him right either. He's
Speaker 1: just he's just kind of he exists. Percent of people
Speaker 1: they were exciting the cast of Nicole Wallace a low rating,
Speaker 1: not even a good one, if there is such a thing. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so yeah, I don't know nobody. So, yeah, nobody's excited
Speaker 1: about him. But that's not that's not that's not how
Speaker 1: you govern anymore in America, and it's not necessarily how
Speaker 1: you win elections. Yeah, Like Hillary Clinton's problem was nobody
Speaker 1: was she had She had this small group that was
Speaker 1: really excited about her, but in general people weren't excited
Speaker 1: about it. I just qualified and most qualified, et cetera.
Speaker 1: But people intensely disliked her on the other side, and
Speaker 1: it became a contest you remember, in the polling at
Speaker 1: the very end of who was the least disliked by
Speaker 1: the American public, And Biden ended up beating Trump four
Speaker 1: years later because he was less disliked than Trump was.
Speaker 1: That's a good point. Yeah, with Trump, he has very
Speaker 1: high favorables and very high unfavorable so nobody feels ambivalent
Speaker 1: to right, whereas which everyone's ambivalent to Bid. Yeah, everyone is.
Speaker 1: Basically he's fine. I mean, only the thing I keep
Speaker 1: coming back to with Biden and his reelect is I
Speaker 1: don't know if you remember Ron Klain after Emmanuel Macron
Speaker 1: won reelection in France, where his approvaler rating was total
Speaker 1: trash r it was like in the thirties, and he's
Speaker 1: able to win, and he won pretty easily over Marine
Speaker 1: La Penn because people really hated her a lot. And
Speaker 1: so you know, Ron Clay tweets a sound was like,
Speaker 1: oh interesting, he won reelection with a thirty six percent
Speaker 1: approval rating or whatever. I mean, that kind of seems
Speaker 1: like the path that they are hoping for for Biden.
Speaker 1: And so that's why you see, you know, not only
Speaker 1: in the speech he really did front load with what
Speaker 1: he's done and what he wants to do and where
Speaker 1: we are, etc. On the economy, but there's also quite
Speaker 1: a bit in there which obviously Republicans got upset about
Speaker 1: about the Republican plans and why they were the wrong direction.
Speaker 1: So I mean, in some ways, I think his reelect
Speaker 1: hinges on how much people dislike the Republicans, how extreme
Speaker 1: they are, and how much they want to avoid going
Speaker 1: in that direction again, right, And that's why it totally
Speaker 1: depends on the nominee, and we've seen that show up
Speaker 1: in polling. But it's a really important point because I
Speaker 1: think American politics is lurching towards that reality for the
Speaker 1: foreseeable future period where you have people with really low
Speaker 1: approval ratings, maybe even low favorability ratings, that are just
Speaker 1: able to muster the right, cobble together the right coalition
Speaker 1: and just scraight past or get to that fifty percent
Speaker 1: mark or forty nine, whatever it is. And that's the
Speaker 1: reality I think we're facing in the country that we're
Speaker 1: too divided to have. I think, like Ronald Reagan's reelection,
Speaker 1: you know, where he's just trouncing absolutely everybody that's not
Speaker 1: gonna happen, or Bill Clinton. I mean, we're just we're
Speaker 1: not in that world anymore were and so Republicans, I
Speaker 1: think need to realize that if they want to create
Speaker 1: this dichotomy of normal versus crazy, they need to figure
Speaker 1: out how to make that stick. To Joe Biden, they
Speaker 1: need to not be that and not be crazy. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: you can't have to do both. You don't do the
Speaker 1: Corilla the viill thing and stand up and yell. It's
Speaker 1: a tough I really don't know how they get their
Speaker 1: way out of it, because it's like I can make
Speaker 1: the case on either side, like if I'm Ron DeSantis. Look, okay,
Speaker 1: let's say try. We had a fun debate at our
Speaker 1: live show, what happens if Trump and DeSantis both die?
Speaker 1: But what's more likely let's say Trump's wrong with it
Speaker 1: was a funny. It was a fun Honestly, it was
Speaker 1: a fun second so many times. All right, if they
Speaker 1: what they both, they both get arrest. My scenario was
Speaker 1: that they were both on Air Force one and Air
Speaker 1: Force one crash on the way, they blow up the
Speaker 1: Chinese balloon floor and the debris takes them both out
Speaker 1: and Santos arrested for brooming. Santos actually know George Santos
Speaker 1: killed them both. Okay, so move on. Part of what
Speaker 1: we got too much diec from that. Part of what
Speaker 1: we got from that dialogue was that they need to
Speaker 1: try and reconcile the craziness of Trump and the energy
Speaker 1: of that with the fact that they still won six
Speaker 1: percent of the national popular vote during the midterms, like
Speaker 1: this can be done. Joe Biden is weak. We have
Speaker 1: all of the polling data to show that it is
Speaker 1: Trump and that wing which is dragging them down electorally. However,
Speaker 1: they hold so much power institutionally go ahead of Yeah, no,
Speaker 1: I think that's that's one hundred percent true. And Biden
Speaker 1: is picking up on this with his own party in
Speaker 1: a way that Republicans who have seen the culture War
Speaker 1: sort of path to victory in a Virginia or of Florida.
Speaker 1: You cannot just translate that to Sarah. How could be
Speaker 1: standards going all in and having absolutely no answer to
Speaker 1: Biden's very sort of like Normy aimed square the middle
Speaker 1: economic speech. That's like a kitchen table, real person speech.
Speaker 1: You can't just come out swinging with that kind of stuff.
Speaker 1: And Biden, for instance, he didn't say much, as you
Speaker 1: guys pointed out earlier, on abortion. He didn't say much
Speaker 1: about the border. You didn't say much about LGBTQ issues.
Speaker 1: He said, we had one mention of of transgender young people,
Speaker 1: but the bulk of the speech was on the economy
Speaker 1: on the he didn't even talk about Ukraine that much.
Speaker 1: It was at the bottom third. Well right, And so
Speaker 1: the I think Democrats have realized probably picked up on
Speaker 1: the number from the midterms, which the midterm narrative was
Speaker 1: one thing, but it is true. Republicans did have a
Speaker 1: decent night, not nearly what it was projected to be,
Speaker 1: but they did okay in the popular vote. So if
Speaker 1: Democrats see that, they do have a lot of culture
Speaker 1: war problems, there's just no question about it. You did
Speaker 1: a great podcast this week, un Deconstructed where you sort
Speaker 1: of talked through some of this. They do have those issues,
Speaker 1: but Republicans can't fight them in a way that handicaps
Speaker 1: themselves going into those battles. Biden doesn't give them a
Speaker 1: lot of ammunition. And I'm not aware of a national
Speaker 1: election that has ever been won on the question of
Speaker 1: what local schools should be or not teaching. That is
Speaker 1: our destiny, though, to have presidential elections hinge on who
Speaker 1: gets to play on the lacrosse across team like that?
Speaker 1: Will that will be like eventually where where this system
Speaker 1: is heading. I don't know if it'll be this one
Speaker 1: or four years from hour, but it's part of the
Speaker 1: like the process of just removing more and more decision
Speaker 1: making away from elections, and but you still have to
Speaker 1: give people something to fight over. But speaking of not
Speaker 1: havingything to fight over, it's like the Democratic Party seems
Speaker 1: like they don't have the civil war that they had
Speaker 1: over the last kind of six seven eight years. It's
Speaker 1: it was basically won by the establishment, with you know,
Speaker 1: Biden finally beating beating Bernie, but they also absorbed a
Speaker 1: decent amount of what Bernie was fighting for and so
Speaker 1: and so that's why you see so much frustration on
Speaker 1: the outside that Bernie's not fighting more than you know,
Speaker 1: Bernie's become a big supporter of Joe Biden. Because Bernie,
Speaker 1: as you know, budget chairman, is writing the reconciliation package.
Speaker 1: He's you know, he's he's seeing trillions of dollars of
Speaker 1: spending go through. You're seeing you know, unemployment knocked down
Speaker 1: to what three point four percent, lowest and lowest since
Speaker 1: like nineteen sixty nine, and so you have this. He
Speaker 1: talked about the nearly four hundred billion dollars in climate spending,
Speaker 1: and so he called himself a capitalist. Yeah, they say, yes, yes, right, exactly,
Speaker 1: so they kind of they kind of ended this civil
Speaker 1: war by a beating Bernie, but then b bringing in
Speaker 1: a decent amount of what he was fighting for, just
Speaker 1: enough to kind of keep them happy together. And because
Speaker 1: Democrats Democratic voters are so fired up about electability and
Speaker 1: beating the evil Republicans, you know, they're going to keep
Speaker 1: putting forward people like Biden probably, whereas Republicans still are,
Speaker 1: you know, fired by the by the cultural issues. And
Speaker 1: because I think they were told that Trump was unelectable,
Speaker 1: they said, screw it, we don't care. We're electing him anyway.
Speaker 1: And he got a nominating him anyway. He won. They
Speaker 1: don't they don't want to hear about electability crap. And yeah,
Speaker 1: I agree people, and they're not going to want to
Speaker 1: hear that for a long time ago. Emily, what do
Speaker 1: you see as the contours of the coming Republican I
Speaker 1: mean that the Republican Civil War is sort of upon us.
Speaker 1: You know, people are kind of choosing their sides and
Speaker 1: the battle lines are breaking down. But like, is there
Speaker 1: are there economic issues that are involved in that Republican
Speaker 1: Civil war? Is it primarily around culture war issues? Clearly,
Speaker 1: Ronda Santis is positioning himself as like the you know
Speaker 1: I was during COVID, I was the guy who was
Speaker 1: open for business. Donald Trump was shuting things down, whether
Speaker 1: or the facts of that whatever. That's how he's positioning himself.
Speaker 1: Is that going to be the key dividing line? How
Speaker 1: do you see this playing out? So it looks like
Speaker 1: Nikki Haley is going to announce formally and do a
Speaker 1: roll out next week, and that's already what I've seen
Speaker 1: some on the kind of new right talking about is like,
Speaker 1: what an embarrassment that this is just a tea party
Speaker 1: ghost who has not updated herself whatsoever. But then the
Speaker 1: question is what is the substantial difference between Ronda Santis
Speaker 1: and Nikki Haley? Because with Donald Trump, we know to
Speaker 1: some extent that it's just a mixed bag. It's the
Speaker 1: same thing with this foreign policy. You're going to get
Speaker 1: some new, some shocking new, and some of the old stuff.
Speaker 1: It depends on who wins the fight at any given moment,
Speaker 1: the tug of war at any given moment. But how
Speaker 1: substantially different is Ron De Santis or Glenn Younkin mister
Speaker 1: pe Patagonia vest going to be on that issue? And
Speaker 1: I think that's a really open question, and the primaries
Speaker 1: are going to be a place where that's sorted out.
Speaker 1: Because Republicans do face pressure now after Donald Trump, this
Speaker 1: is post Paul Ryan era. Not to do things to
Speaker 1: Social Security and Medicare like this is a huge source
Speaker 1: of pressure on Republicans. So I think a lot of
Speaker 1: it will be hashed out in the midterms. I think
Speaker 1: it's completely up in the air now. I think anybody
Speaker 1: who says the Republican Party has been, you know, permanently
Speaker 1: changed for good and turned into the party of the
Speaker 1: working class is absolutely wrong. That's not to say there
Speaker 1: isn't some reason for possible right Stoler talks about that
Speaker 1: like this is good for everybody. The Republican Party is
Speaker 1: never going to be a beautiful, wonderful, pure party of
Speaker 1: the working class. Not going to happen. The Democratic Party
Speaker 1: is not going to be either. One might be better
Speaker 1: than the other, but the Republican Party at least being
Speaker 1: dragged kicking and screaming to say things like, if we're
Speaker 1: going to balance the budget, we're not going to do
Speaker 1: it from stealing and rating from your entitlement funds. That's
Speaker 1: a good day for everyone. But the question is still open.
Speaker 1: I mean, I see that, and I don't because at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, the McCarthy holdouts also begged
Speaker 1: and demanded a vote for the freakin' fair tax, which
Speaker 1: is you know, terrible, terrible regressive, like total tea Party
Speaker 1: throwback stuff, and the whole contours of the debt sealing
Speaker 1: fight outside of them just not publicly wanting to be
Speaker 1: accused of cutting Social Security medicare. This is tea Party
Speaker 1: two point zero stuff. I mean, this is all tea
Speaker 1: Party tactics. Their asks are Tea Party asks. So it's
Speaker 1: you know, when I look at something like that, I'm like,
Speaker 1: this is really change, is really different because now that
Speaker 1: Trump is sort of less clearly in command too, you know,
Speaker 1: a lot of their talking points and their economic policy
Speaker 1: has just floated right back to that Mitt Romney, Paul
Speaker 1: Ryan Era ultimately, and I mean it's Trump himself. This
Speaker 1: biges accomplishment was a gigantic corporate tax gut that they
Speaker 1: all are perfectly happy with. Well and the other thing.
Speaker 1: You'll definitely have thoughts on this, but anti trust is huge,
Speaker 1: and I'm actually very curious if Sarahuckeby Sanders had a
Speaker 1: word about anti trust because Republicans have actually made significant motions.
Speaker 1: Some of the most powerful anti trust suits have been
Speaker 1: filed by people like Ken Paxton and Texas and the
Speaker 1: Trump administration against Google. There's some real meat on the bones.
Speaker 1: That's like one of the areas where there is actually
Speaker 1: truly a realignment. To borrow word from Soccer and Marshall
Speaker 1: that you can see happening. And what's who is is
Speaker 1: Ronda Santis, Sarah hackeby Sanders, is Nikki Haley? What are
Speaker 1: they going to say about that? How would they govern?
Speaker 1: That's a complete nicky had He's already on record against
Speaker 1: what was knocking her lane out on it. Now was
Speaker 1: not the time to rethink cap is what she famously
Speaker 1: said in her speech. So good luck, Nikki. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: enjoy watching you fail. I really will. I could say
Speaker 1: that as the Indian American who doesn't want to see
Speaker 1: you be the first one on the stage for all
Speaker 1: of us. But Ryan, I'm curious here also on the
Speaker 1: Democratic side. So at the end of the day, you
Speaker 1: know the laundry list of here's what I want and
Speaker 1: all this it's not going to happen. This was all
Speaker 1: just oppositional, So to that extent Biden we were talking
Speaker 1: about this is the kickoff of his campaign. It seems
Speaker 1: like it did pretty good job. Like overall, this is
Speaker 1: probably as good as you could probably hope for. And
Speaker 1: he didn't step into any of the pitfalls. I saw
Speaker 1: that he's on his way to Wisconsin and Florida. In Florida,
Speaker 1: I'd just be like, give up, mister president. That ship sailed, sir, Wisconsin.
Speaker 1: That's a smart move. But yeah, like going into those
Speaker 1: two states in the next couple of days, like this
Speaker 1: is probably going to be a pretty high point for him,
Speaker 1: and especially coming off the midterms. Right, there were two
Speaker 1: he could have taken. When when Republicans said we're going
Speaker 1: to hold the debt stealing hostage to force demands, he
Speaker 1: could have taken the last Joe Biden approach, which was great.
Speaker 1: You know, we all need to get together. We'll do
Speaker 1: a commission and Simpson bowls, Simpson balls, will hold hands together.
Speaker 1: I got Bruce Reid here, he was my staff guy
Speaker 1: and he's still in the White House. Yeah, dust the
Speaker 1: plans off, and yes, like people want to work longer,
Speaker 1: and Medicare is too generous, and Medicaid you know, you know,
Speaker 1: people people need to be incentivized to get back to work,
Speaker 1: like they could have been that Joe Biden, or it
Speaker 1: could be the Joe Biden that we saw tonight. It
Speaker 1: was like, who baits them with the Rick Scott plan? Uh,
Speaker 1: and then he could have baited them with the Kevin
Speaker 1: McCarthy plans, saying that we're going to strengthen solid security
Speaker 1: and medicare. He gets them to call him a liar,
Speaker 1: and he said, oh wait, we got a lot of
Speaker 1: converts here. I'm happy. So great, We're not going so
Speaker 1: so he goes the other direction and says we're not
Speaker 1: going to go down that path, which means that the
Speaker 1: bye who came out of the gate with the you know,
Speaker 1: he said, here's my offer on the American Rescue Plan
Speaker 1: one point nine trillion dollars, and Susan Collins comes back,
Speaker 1: She's like, here's our offer five hundred and fifty billion
Speaker 1: dollars or six hundred whatever it is. Two hours later,
Speaker 1: he puts out a statement. He's like, we're doing this alone.
Speaker 1: We're we're not taking six months like Obama did, and
Speaker 1: like allowing Susan Collins to just like dictate this to us.
Speaker 1: That was a shocking moment in like democratic political history
Speaker 1: when he did that. You know how he's been like
Speaker 1: conferring with John Meacham and trying to step into the
Speaker 1: FDR shoes. And this is like actually reported Access's head
Speaker 1: repelled right on Biden, like genuinely trying to rescue the
Speaker 1: soul of the nation and seeing himself as this FDR figure,
Speaker 1: not like FDR light but like FDR next generation truly.
Speaker 1: And he had a line in the speech where he
Speaker 1: talked about I think it's the Inflation Reduction Act provisions
Speaker 1: of it not going into effect until January one, So
Speaker 1: people are just starting to feel the economy heating up,
Speaker 1: and the economy is heating up in different ways, and
Speaker 1: that might explain the disconnect between the mood of the
Speaker 1: country and polling and what Biden sees as a hot
Speaker 1: economy or heating up economy. But to that point, is
Speaker 1: it some of that seeing him slotting himself into that character,
Speaker 1: this FDR like figure, that has made him say I'm
Speaker 1: not the old Joe Biden. Screw it, We're not waiting
Speaker 1: for Susan Collins. But at the same time, he did
Speaker 1: say Republican friends over and over again in that speech.
Speaker 1: Notice that I mean this is in particular a real
Speaker 1: break from the old Joe Biden. Here's the line from
Speaker 1: the speech. If anyone tries to cut Social Security, I
Speaker 1: will stop them. If anyone tries to cut Medicare, I
Speaker 1: will stop them. I will not allow them to be
Speaker 1: taken away, not stay, not tomorrow, or not ever. Now
Speaker 1: he doesn't say, and they're not yesterday, because he's not
Speaker 1: multiple times for forty years, I tried to cut Social Security.
Speaker 1: But if you no, not tomorrow, not ever, take a
Speaker 1: week future. Yes, So yeah, I mean, listen, I don't
Speaker 1: want to overseell it because is on the other hand,
Speaker 1: you know, went ont of his way to like bust
Speaker 1: the potential rail strike and hand power to the bosses there,
Speaker 1: like hasn't fought for lifting the minimum wage. You know
Speaker 1: mentioned the pro act here that fell up the table,
Speaker 1: didn't really put the screws to mansion and cinema over
Speaker 1: build back better. And so you know, we were all
Speaker 1: happy when we got something in the Inflation Reduction Act.
Speaker 1: But it's easy to forget how much the actual original
Speaker 1: vision was trimmed by a lack of willingness to play
Speaker 1: hardball and willingness to like just accept the rulings of
Speaker 1: the parliamentarian and things like that. So I don't want
Speaker 1: to oversell it here, but I do think there are
Speaker 1: some noteworthy shifts in terms of I mean even just
Speaker 1: industrial policy and anti trust. These were like antitrust, I mean,
Speaker 1: the Obama administration was terrible on anti trust, terrible, allowed
Speaker 1: some of these gigantic mergers to go through that now
Speaker 1: people are raging about, right the Ticketmaster being a primary example.
Speaker 1: And you know so industrial policy was basically a dirty
Speaker 1: word in both parties for my entire life until now,
Speaker 1: up until literally I think three years ago. I really
Speaker 1: when bidenrew. Do you remember when Biden put out what
Speaker 1: was it like, Maid in America plan? I praised it
Speaker 1: on Rising in here. I was like, hey, listen, that's
Speaker 1: pretty good. I was like, you can say you whatever,
Speaker 1: you know. I was like, by the way, I was like, Jared,
Speaker 1: please release the Maiden America thing from the National Security Council,
Speaker 1: which I know that you held up for two years
Speaker 1: and then didn't end up passing for literally no reason.
Speaker 1: So in a lot of ways for Trump, this is
Speaker 1: dangerous territory. I mean, Biden is taking the two most
Speaker 1: singular popular things that he did, which was China and
Speaker 1: it was made in America. Look at that, you know
Speaker 1: the way that he talked about China and the speech
Speaker 1: and then not much, No, he didn't talk about it much.
Speaker 1: But look he did not say that what seven years ago.
Speaker 1: What he was trying to say in that whole switch
Speaker 1: places which she I speak by niece, is because I
Speaker 1: used to watch him whenever he was coherent, and he
Speaker 1: would always talk about he was one of those people.
Speaker 1: He was so pro engagement with China. He often says this,
Speaker 1: I'm the only person I've spent more hours with Shishiping
Speaker 1: than any other Western leader in the world. I've sat
Speaker 1: there and I've talked with him across the table. That
Speaker 1: was his big selling point. He was so excited here.
Speaker 1: Oh I know. Yeah, Actually there was a lot of
Speaker 1: business dealings going on. That was Sid's all on air
Speaker 1: force too. Another story for another day, of which we
Speaker 1: have covered several times. But the point is is that
Speaker 1: he has gone from engagement to confrontation. Clearly that is
Speaker 1: without Trump, that doesn't happen. And he's also now gone
Speaker 1: completely with Made in America, the full embrace of all that.
Speaker 1: I do want to know who he is, he goes
Speaker 1: Many people don't like when I say this, but we're
Speaker 1: gonna buy American. I'm like, who is saying that, Like
Speaker 1: outside of like JP Morgan CEO, who is saying that.
Speaker 1: I'm like, I like that. Most people like that. Larry Summers, Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: got some got some flap in the country class. One
Speaker 1: last thought and then I want to hear you guys'
Speaker 1: final thoughts as well. But you know, one thing we
Speaker 1: talked about going into this, which maybe it shouldn't matter,
Speaker 1: maybe it should matter. I think it's reasonable for people
Speaker 1: to have concerns about a man who would be eighty
Speaker 1: six by the end of a next term. And so
Speaker 1: as much as The New York Times was running a
Speaker 1: story that I know as planned by Biden, aied's about
Speaker 1: how he's preparing to overcome a stutter in this speech,
Speaker 1: sort of trying to set the bar low that if
Speaker 1: it doesn't go well, don't be an asshole. It's because
Speaker 1: he has a stutter. It's not because he's old. Guys
Speaker 1: don't say that, but ultimately, you know, I mean, he's
Speaker 1: still Joe Biden at eighty years old. It's still not
Speaker 1: what he used to be. It wasn't like an incredibly
Speaker 1: masterful oratory, But Ryan, I think, you know, in terms
Speaker 1: of what he's capable of, this was a pretty well
Speaker 1: delivered speech, and as Emily was saying, you know, being
Speaker 1: able to do a little give and take with the audience.
Speaker 1: That's not easy to do. So I think also he
Speaker 1: did himself some favors in terms of persuading people that
Speaker 1: this is a man who is still capable of conducting
Speaker 1: the business of the presidency and that we're not all
Speaker 1: going to be left in the hands of Kambla Harris
Speaker 1: your god. I think we're also starting to all grade
Speaker 1: him on a curve relative to what we expect from him. Like,
Speaker 1: I think he has successfully set the bar really low
Speaker 1: his public performances. Every time he tried to go off
Speaker 1: the teleprompter, off script with a little riff. Yeah, you're
Speaker 1: almost holding your breath for him. Outside of the Medicare thing,
Speaker 1: they were all bad, every single one. He starts out
Speaker 1: by saying, I get to be here because Jill's going
Speaker 1: to get the game Marwin anyway, So are you talking
Speaker 1: about the Super Bowl and the Eagles. Yeah, you have
Speaker 1: Donovan McNabb perform like he should. He should have He
Speaker 1: should have finished with the go birds at the end,
Speaker 1: because he's not winning miss doctor a doctor saying flag. Yes,
Speaker 1: well on that point, and he did seem to get
Speaker 1: Tyree Nichols name wrong. It wasn't Oldham Tyler, but it
Speaker 1: wasn't great sounding like Tyler. Yeah, it wasn't a perfect performance.
Speaker 1: But I do think that because the bar is so
Speaker 1: low for him every time he clears it and looks
Speaker 1: like he can give a normal presidential speech for an hour. Again,
Speaker 1: because the bar is so low. And part of that,
Speaker 1: by the way, is because Donald Trump was the preceding president.
Speaker 1: That's good, and Donald Trump's State of the Unions tended
Speaker 1: to be pretty boilerplate and conventional. That wasn't true of
Speaker 1: the rest of his communications. So Joe Biden being able
Speaker 1: to just give a speech for an hour, talk about
Speaker 1: his Republican friends and make America at least sort of
Speaker 1: be back in the political theater that people are comfortable with,
Speaker 1: I guess that's a win for him. Yeah, all right, okay, guys,
Speaker 1: thank you so much for your analysis. I hope everybody
Speaker 1: enjoyed this stream. Thank you so much also to our
Speaker 1: premium members who help support the show. And keep all
Speaker 1: of these things going. They are expensive to put on,
Speaker 1: so we really much appreciate you and we love you all.
Speaker 1: We're going to have some content for you guys tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Hint it involves a congressman attacking Crystal Ball, my partner
Speaker 1: over here, and Joe Rogan as a vicious, vicious attack,
Speaker 1: calling them anti Semitic. We will get into all of
Speaker 1: that tomorrow. We'll have a full show for everybody on Thursday,
Speaker 1: lots of great content in the interim, and we will
Speaker 1: see you all later