1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:02,559 Speaker 1: I'm Soger and Jenny. Welcome to Breaking Points. Every week 2 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:04,480 Speaker 1: we have four shows for all of you, bringing you 3 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:06,840 Speaker 1: the most important stories in the country, especially those that 4 00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:09,000 Speaker 1: the mainstream media won't touch. So if you want to 5 00:00:09,039 --> 00:00:11,039 Speaker 1: support what we are up to here, we have a 6 00:00:11,039 --> 00:00:14,040 Speaker 1: special discount for all of you this month at Breakingpoints 7 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: dot com. With that, let's get to the show. Hello, Hello, everybody, 8 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: good evening, Welcome to our State of the Union live 9 00:00:22,440 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: stream with the dream team that we have assembled here. 10 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: What do we have today, crystol Indeed, we do have 11 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: a great program for you this evening. All right. So, 12 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:34,599 Speaker 1: as you guys know, President is preparing to give his 13 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,560 Speaker 1: annual State of the Union addressed to Congress. A few 14 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:40,160 Speaker 1: things that are different this year. I mean, the big 15 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 1: thing is that we have Kevin McCarthy now in a 16 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:44,960 Speaker 1: Speaker of the House, so visually he'll be there instead 17 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 1: of Nancy Pelosi, signal of the fact that it is 18 00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,600 Speaker 1: a different time in Washington. And frankly, all of the 19 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:52,160 Speaker 1: things that he's going to lay out that he would 20 00:00:52,240 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: theoretically want to get done are obviously not going to 21 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: get done because of that reality. But we're going to 22 00:00:57,240 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 1: take a look at some things we have pulled for 23 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 1: you about the actual state of the economy, in particular 24 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: because he's going to lead a lot into that, and 25 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,399 Speaker 1: also the political landscape because in a lot of ways, 26 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: this is kind of his launch for his reelection. He's 27 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 1: not going to officially launch till March or April, but 28 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: this is the beginning of Joe Biden making the case 29 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:18,360 Speaker 1: for what he's done, what he wants to do going forward, 30 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: and also you know, what he thinks needs to be 31 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 1: pushed back on for the Republicans. So we are joined 32 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 1: by the wonderful Marshall and the wonderful Kyle. Gentlemen, welcome. Hey, 33 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: me and Marshall did not plan our outfits to look 34 00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 1: as really good. I agree, I think we look good. 35 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: I think I think watchers are breaking what's we Notice 36 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: that Kyle has been really stepping up since that first episode. 37 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:42,720 Speaker 1: You're morphing into Sager and I'm looking forward to the 38 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: tie next time. Yeah, what happened to the tie first? 39 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 1: What was the first episode? Yeah? What was I wearing 40 00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 1: drama when we when we unveiled the first breaking points 41 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:56,200 Speaker 1: like live recording back in Geez twenty twenty one. So look, 42 00:01:56,240 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 1: I think there's something we could all do and learn 43 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: from each other. Oh wowrobably wearing like pajamas plants or 44 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 1: I mean, he's like, why don't get you on your pants. 45 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: I don't want to give away the game here, but 46 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:08,839 Speaker 1: he is wearing sweatpants and slippers right now, so don't 47 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: blow my spot up. But one time the sweatpants actually 48 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: matched the jacket, and here you are raining on everybody's prea. 49 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 1: Be careful, Kyle, because on our set you can actually 50 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: see the upper links of your truth. But just trying 51 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 1: to be transparent, that's all right. I didn't want I 52 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 1: didn't want people to think I'd changed you. You know, 53 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:28,120 Speaker 1: you're still the same guy. I actually have no pants 54 00:02:28,120 --> 00:02:30,000 Speaker 1: on right now, but he's got the celter next to him, 55 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: so that's how you know that things are a little 56 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 1: bit different, all right, Okay. State of the Union, as 57 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: chrissel mentioned, this is something where the president is basically 58 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 1: running for re election. I actually did not know this, 59 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,480 Speaker 1: and I'm actually curious what you guys think of this. 60 00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:44,760 Speaker 1: I don't really know why, but a lot of people 61 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: watched the State of the Union, so I was looking 62 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 1: at twenty twenty two data for some of the most 63 00:02:50,200 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 1: watched programming in the United States top one hundred. Vast 64 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 1: majority of it was the NFL unsurprisingly or it was 65 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: almost all sporting events, the only one, and it was 66 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: actually within the top fifty state of the Union. Tens 67 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:07,160 Speaker 1: of millions of people watch and actually tune into this, 68 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 1: probably more so than when President Biden eventually will announce 69 00:03:10,960 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: his reelection. So this is his case, and he's running 70 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 1: on the economy. So one of the things that we pulled, 71 00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 1: and this is a very important metric as to how 72 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: exactly he's talking right now. Let's go and put our 73 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 1: first element up here on the screen, guys. A one 74 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: is the state of the US economy right now. I 75 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 1: don't think there's ever been a weirder economy to actually discuss, 76 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: which is the jobs report came in red hot, five 77 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 1: hundred and seventeen thousand jobs added in January. They completely 78 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: crushed the estimates. We have a fifty three year low 79 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:45,400 Speaker 1: of unemployment, We have modest real wage growth. We have 80 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: changed from a zero interest rate environment. Social Security checks 81 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 1: went up. However, they went up because of inflation. And 82 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: that's the downside to this entire discussion, which is that 83 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: people are upset about the state of the economy in 84 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 1: some ways, they've never felt worse, and we'll get to that. 85 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: And in general, there's a sense of malays while all 86 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 1: of the top line metrics are really good. So I 87 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: really we've struggled with this a lot here on the show, 88 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: which is, how do you describe that, you know, eggs 89 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: are seven dollars, but you know people have got jobs, 90 00:04:13,360 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 1: So what is that? What type of economy is that? 91 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 1: And how do you how does a president relay that 92 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: to the American people? Marshall, why don't you pick that 93 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:23,279 Speaker 1: one up because I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. Yeah. 94 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 1: I think the argument that they're going to order what 95 00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 1: we make here is that things were at their worst 96 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: probably last summer, and since then we've seen and this 97 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 1: is me echoing what a different version of Biden would 98 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:37,720 Speaker 1: be saying on fifteen different levels. But things have just 99 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: gotten better and they're going to keep getting better, and 100 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,680 Speaker 1: we should have faith in the president that that message 101 00:04:42,720 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: is going to work. That's basically I think what they're 102 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:46,600 Speaker 1: going to want to get from folks, because if you 103 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: just really see with those midterm results, Republicans just came 104 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 1: in thinking that the economic message was going to be 105 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: particularly successful, that malaise Sagrey you reference, was going to 106 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 1: translate into the ballot box, and it really didn't. So 107 00:04:57,680 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 1: I think they're just betting that the next two years 108 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,279 Speaker 1: going to follow the pattern this September to November did. Yeah, 109 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:05,279 Speaker 1: But I feel like they might be learning the wrong 110 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 1: lesson for that, because I don't think that the midterms 111 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 1: were really a referendum, Like to the extent that they 112 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 1: outperformed expectations, which no doubt about it, they definitely did, 113 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 1: and to the extent that Republicans underperformed expectations, I don't 114 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,799 Speaker 1: know that they really reflected that people felt great about 115 00:05:21,800 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: how the economy was going, because we just haven't seen 116 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:26,720 Speaker 1: that data reflected anywhere. I mean, let's go and put 117 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:28,679 Speaker 1: the next element up on the screen. You have record 118 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,239 Speaker 1: numbers of Americans saying that they are worse off under 119 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:35,960 Speaker 1: Joe Biden economically. That's not a good sign. You've got 120 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:38,279 Speaker 1: plenty of people who are saying we're on the wrong track. 121 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 1: You have people feeling like we're headed into a recession 122 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: or we're already in a recession. I just saw numbers 123 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:47,320 Speaker 1: today about everybody spending down like whatever savings they were 124 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: able to accumulate during the pandemic from pandemic relief programs, 125 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:53,400 Speaker 1: they're spending all of that down. You have credit card 126 00:05:53,440 --> 00:05:57,599 Speaker 1: debt going up and going up, so you might have 127 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 1: a low unemployment number, but people are not feeling like 128 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: this is a great economy. And I've always thought there's 129 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: a real danger in trying to over sell something, to 130 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: try to pretend like, hey, mission accomplished, we got this, 131 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 1: it's all good, when that is not what people are 132 00:06:13,960 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 1: feeling or experiencing in their regular lives. I mean, I 133 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,000 Speaker 1: actually think there's we talked about this before, but it's 134 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:21,000 Speaker 1: the bluff strategy, and I actually think there is a 135 00:06:21,000 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 1: little bit of wisdom in that. I think that this 136 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: is why you see after every state of the Union, 137 00:06:24,160 --> 00:06:25,479 Speaker 1: you get a little bit of a you know, a 138 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:28,360 Speaker 1: pump in the in the approval rating five points if 139 00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:30,480 Speaker 1: you're lucky, maybe ten points, and now it's temporary, doesn't 140 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:32,120 Speaker 1: last forever, but you get a little bit of a 141 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,919 Speaker 1: because people are looking for you know, the raw, raw cheerlead, 142 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 1: let's go get this where America type stuff. So I 143 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:39,200 Speaker 1: think there is wisdom in that. But I agree with 144 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: your point that I don't think the economy is great, Like, yeah, 145 00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 1: they're probably going to do a victory lap over these 146 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:46,280 Speaker 1: jobs numbers. But we looked at the data crystal and 147 00:06:46,279 --> 00:06:47,760 Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong, But didn't we see that 148 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 1: it was mostly like medical field and service sector jobs. Yeah, 149 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:54,160 Speaker 1: so that's what people so base. I mean, look gig 150 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:56,600 Speaker 1: economy type stuff, right, Like, people have jobs, but it's 151 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:58,480 Speaker 1: not like it used to be back in the day, 152 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: where you go to you have a manufacturing job, you 153 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: make a decent money, you have a pension, you have 154 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:04,320 Speaker 1: a house and a car, and maybe even a little 155 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:07,119 Speaker 1: vacation homers. It's not like that. Yeah. Well and okay, 156 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 1: so to break down the jobs numbers a little bit, 157 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 1: you're absolutely right that the most of the growth has 158 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,480 Speaker 1: been hospitality, leisure, so things that in the service economy 159 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:19,280 Speaker 1: that really went away during the pandemic that is now 160 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: coming back, and so there's a lot of job growth there. 161 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 1: There's a lot of job growth in terms of healthcare. 162 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: I mean that's both in terms of like demographic trends, 163 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: but also you had a lot of turnover during the 164 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: pandemic in the healthcare sector as well, So that's where 165 00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:33,600 Speaker 1: a lot of the growth is and you also see 166 00:07:33,840 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: in terms of wages, you see the fastest growth of wages, 167 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: which is still not enough, especially when you consider inflation 168 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: is also at the lower end of the spectrum. But 169 00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: when you consider that we've gone decades without the lower 170 00:07:48,840 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 1: end of the spectrum getting any raise whatsoever, when you 171 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: consider the wage stagnation that we've had basically my entire life, 172 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:58,840 Speaker 1: it's going to take a lot more than a tiny 173 00:07:58,880 --> 00:08:03,200 Speaker 1: percentage point in slightly more than inflation for people in 174 00:08:03,240 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 1: that segment of the economy to feel like, hey, I'm good, 175 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: everything is okay now. So yeah, I think it is 176 00:08:09,640 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: a strange economy. I think there are things that the 177 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 1: Biden administration can sell about what they've done so far, 178 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: you know, with working across the aisle in certain instances, 179 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: with the infrastructure bill, getting the Inflation Reduction Act passed. 180 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:24,600 Speaker 1: I just saw some numbers about how that has created 181 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 1: something like one hundred thousand jobs in terms of green energy. 182 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: There are things there to sell. But I think you've 183 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 1: got a level with people and meet them where they are. 184 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: And the bottom line is Americans do not feel like 185 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: it is mission accomplished. They feel very unstable. They feel 186 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:41,920 Speaker 1: like they are worse off than they were previously. And 187 00:08:42,000 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 1: if you are meeting that emotional energy and also laying 188 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:47,680 Speaker 1: out a path of Okay, here's what we have to 189 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 1: do from there, there's no doubt that your political adversaries 190 00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 1: are going to take advantage of that opening. Yeah. For me, 191 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,439 Speaker 1: I think that Biden's speech is going to be all 192 00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 1: about balance. As Kyle, as you said, I mean President Obama. 193 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:00,720 Speaker 1: Essentially we have the same economy now did under Obama. 194 00:09:00,760 --> 00:09:02,480 Speaker 1: Obama crawled out of two thousand and eight and then 195 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:04,480 Speaker 1: you did see some job growth, but the job growth 196 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: was all in non unionized sector service economy. Wages were 197 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: significantly down. That's one of the things that Mitt Romney 198 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:13,839 Speaker 1: actually ran against him. So if I'm Biden, one of 199 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: the things that you want to do is, you know, 200 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:16,439 Speaker 1: you want to bluff your way a little bit. I 201 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 1: actually think leaning into the economy would be the biggest mistake. 202 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 1: So he's got three of the most popular things right 203 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 1: now that are on his side. Number one is stopped 204 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 1: the steal. And actually we have an excerpt right now 205 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 1: from the President of what he's going to open, or 206 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: at least be at the top of the speech. Quote 207 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:35,800 Speaker 1: two years ago, our democracy faced its greatest threat since 208 00:09:35,840 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: the Civil War. Today, through though bruised, our democracy remains 209 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: unbowed and unbroken. Now, look, I'm not saying I agree 210 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 1: with that personally. I find a cringe that said, it 211 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,920 Speaker 1: would be completely undeniable to say that that message didn't 212 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 1: resoundingly work during the mid term. So that's number one. Economically, 213 00:09:53,640 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 1: it's not even about selling what he's done, selling what 214 00:09:56,960 --> 00:09:58,800 Speaker 1: he plans to do, because we all know it's not 215 00:09:58,840 --> 00:10:01,480 Speaker 1: going to happen. It's like the these people have people 216 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:04,800 Speaker 1: in their ranks who want to cut Social Security and 217 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:08,080 Speaker 1: even though inflation is up and that's why the social 218 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 1: Security checks went up, he'd be like, you gotta raised 219 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 1: under President Biden. Again, I'm just making clear, like politically 220 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 1: what he should be saying. And then third is abortion. Obviously, 221 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:20,920 Speaker 1: if you have those three things and you put yourself 222 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: as a ballwark against GOP extremism, specifically on stop the 223 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 1: steal and on abortion, while contrasting yourself relentlessly with Speaker 224 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,200 Speaker 1: McCarthy with the Freedom Caucus on the debt ceiling, I 225 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:33,959 Speaker 1: actually think that and at the end of the day, 226 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 1: that's the most honest, right Marshall that's all he actually 227 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 1: can do. You can say all you want about a 228 00:10:38,120 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: billionaire minimum stack. That's not going to happen. Okay, it 229 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 1: didn't happen during the democratic unified government, is certainly not 230 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: going to happen whenever we're talking about cutting social security. 231 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:48,840 Speaker 1: So an honest and a balanced version of the speech, 232 00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:51,319 Speaker 1: I actually think that might land. What do you think? Yeah, 233 00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: And I think the two things to highlight that you 234 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: really just hinted that are Biden's central political skill, which 235 00:10:57,040 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 1: only really came into account at this period of his life. 236 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 1: Plains while he wasn't able to become president at the 237 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: earlier forty year period in his political career is against 238 00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 1: conventional wisdom. He's read the political mood of the country. So, 239 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 1: for example, twenty nineteen, twenty twenty, his whole candidacy. Once again, 240 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 1: this isn't a comment on how he actually governed, but 241 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: his candidacy is actually was to make things normal. It's 242 00:11:21,160 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 1: not actually about being the youngest candidates, not about being 243 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: the hippus candidates, not about having the best policy quote unquote. 244 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 1: It's just I get the sense that Americans are sick 245 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,200 Speaker 1: and tired of everything being crazy. So I'm just going 246 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 1: to run as the old, reliable, conventional guy that was 247 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 1: the right column twenty twenty. In twenty twenty two, I 248 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:39,240 Speaker 1: think all of us are on record to echo your 249 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: point of Sager and arguing that, hey, the democracy is 250 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: under threat thing is cringe. It wasn't just such sort 251 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:48,760 Speaker 1: of us arguing that basically the broad mainstream of both 252 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:50,559 Speaker 1: parties thought that was going to be an effective message. 253 00:11:50,600 --> 00:11:54,160 Speaker 1: That was an incredibly effective message, especially in the swing states. 254 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:56,200 Speaker 1: They're going to make or break him in twenty twenty four. 255 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: So the real thing I'm looking for tonight is is 256 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 1: Biden going to be able to read and set up 257 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: what the actual political vibe quote unquote is moving forward. 258 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 1: Then the other thing to think about is obviously the 259 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 1: Republican responses. Party responses in general aren't particularly important, but 260 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: I think this one is going to be important in 261 00:12:13,760 --> 00:12:16,320 Speaker 1: the sense that Sarah how could be Sanders newly elected 262 00:12:16,600 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 1: governor of Arkansas and obviously former Press secretary for President Trump, 263 00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 1: she is basically representing the mainstream of the Republican Party. 264 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: And if we're looking back at American politics in two 265 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 1: thousand and eight, I think one of the most important 266 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 1: stories has been the Republican Party's consistent inability with the 267 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: exception of Trump and twenty sixteen of reading the political vibe. 268 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:38,439 Speaker 1: So you obviously have the Tea Party wins, but then 269 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 1: that leads to Tea Party win, arrogance going into twenty 270 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 1: twelve leads to rominy and winning the nomination that wins, 271 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: That leads to Trump misreading the elector in twenty twenty 272 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,720 Speaker 1: and of course twenty twenty two, where Republicans thought that 273 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 1: the inflation numbers and gas prices would be enough to 274 00:12:53,679 --> 00:12:56,520 Speaker 1: win a resoundingly straightforward victory with the claims of a 275 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:58,680 Speaker 1: red wave. So the real test is going to be 276 00:12:58,720 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 1: a confided and to actually unders could Biden and repeat 277 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:03,880 Speaker 1: what he's been able to do since basically twenty eighteen, 278 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 1: and then we're Republicans actually read the country correctly. That's 279 00:13:07,280 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 1: a great point. So I want to get everybody here's opinion. 280 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 1: So we have some excerpts actually of Sarah Sanders. This 281 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:15,120 Speaker 1: is what I hate about the response. If you have 282 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: an excerpt of your response and it's not a response, 283 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: you know, it's just a pre plan tax speacher. It's 284 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: like if you have a scripted speech that you could 285 00:13:22,120 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 1: release before the speech. Then it's not an actual response. 286 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:27,120 Speaker 1: But all right, let's put that to the side. I'll 287 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 1: read it for everybody. Crystal kylie war your guy's reaction. 288 00:13:29,840 --> 00:13:32,880 Speaker 1: In the radical lefts America, Washington taxes you and lights 289 00:13:32,880 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: your hard earned money on fire. You get crushed with 290 00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 1: high gas prices, empty grocery shells. Our children are taught 291 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 1: to hate one another on account of their race, but 292 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 1: not to love one another or our great country while 293 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 1: you reap the consequences of their failures. The Biden administration 294 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 1: seems more interested in woke fantasies than the hard reality 295 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: that Americans face every day. Most Americans simply want to 296 00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 1: live their lives in freedom and peace. But we are 297 00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:57,079 Speaker 1: under attack in a left wing culture war that we 298 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 1: didn't start and we never wanted to fight. So that's 299 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:01,679 Speaker 1: what we have so far. What do you guys say, 300 00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 1: Oh boy, here we go yet. Look, the argument is 301 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,760 Speaker 1: never gonna land if you're trying to say that Joe 302 00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:11,959 Speaker 1: Biden is woke. This is the guy who famously had gaffs, 303 00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: you know, before he became president. Like, Bro, you can't 304 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: go into a seven eleven without seeing an Indian behind 305 00:14:16,800 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 1: the Countery, I mean this guy was just you know, 306 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 1: shooting from this. I will defend him on that. Okay, 307 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: where is some truth? You're just all right, let's just 308 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: put it to rest. You're just not gonna get him 309 00:14:26,640 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: on the woke stuff. It's just not gonna happen now. 310 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: On the taxes thing, I just find that point kind 311 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: of funny because Republicans in the House just passed the 312 00:14:35,040 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: what's called the fare tax, which is effectively a thirty 313 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 1: percent tax of thirty percent sales tax, and that is 314 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: a massively regressive tax, so it raises taxes on the 315 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 1: poor and the working class while it cuts taxes for 316 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,560 Speaker 1: the wealthy. So I always found it interesting. I think 317 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: this is an argument that Republicans have made. Effectively, They've 318 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 1: defined themselves as like where the tax cut party. And 319 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 1: I think a lot of people believe that means, oh, 320 00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 1: they're gonna cut my taxes and I'm working class American. 321 00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 1: But effectively that's not the case. Actually are increasing taxes 322 00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:06,160 Speaker 1: on working people or they want to according to their 323 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 1: own plans, and decreasing it for the wealthy. Yeah, I mean, 324 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: the fair tax stuff is such an own goal that 325 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 1: it is unbelievable. And for people who don't know. A 326 00:15:16,520 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: vote on the fair tax was something that the Kevin 327 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:23,000 Speaker 1: McCarthy holdouts demanded, and as Kyle just alluded to, what 328 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:25,080 Speaker 1: it says is you're going to get rid of the 329 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 1: income tax altogether and instead you're going to have a 330 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,760 Speaker 1: thirty percent sales tax. So as expensive as all your groceries, 331 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,000 Speaker 1: your meat, your eggs, your milk, or whatever is at 332 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 1: the grocery store, how about we add thirty percent to that. 333 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,680 Speaker 1: That's literally what they demanded in terms of their you know, 334 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: that was one of their concessions that they got for McCarthy. 335 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: So yes, on that part, they have left themselves incredibly vulnerable. 336 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: Be shocked if Biden doesn't talk about that ultimately in 337 00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: the State of the Union tonight. But you know, another 338 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 1: piece of this she sort of alluded to, like these 339 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:56,880 Speaker 1: fights over education that Ron DeSantis and now Trump are 340 00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:01,840 Speaker 1: really leaning into. And I think, just whatever you think 341 00:16:01,920 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 1: about the politics and ideology of that, I think it 342 00:16:05,200 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 1: is a stupid state strategy. Politically, they thought that Glenn 343 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: Youngkin really won in Virginia on running against critical race theory. 344 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: I don't think that's the case whatsoever. I think you 345 00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:21,520 Speaker 1: had to the extent that the election was about education. 346 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: It was much more about that. You just come out 347 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 1: of a pandemic where schools had been literally shut down. 348 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: But the minute that you're the party that is going 349 00:16:29,760 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: I as president, from the federal government top down want 350 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 1: to tell you what your kids can and can't learn. 351 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:38,520 Speaker 1: That does not feel like freedom, And it also doesn't 352 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: you Still to this day, even with Republicans leaning so 353 00:16:42,080 --> 00:16:44,560 Speaker 1: heavily into this fight, guess who voters say they prefer 354 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 1: on education. It's still Democrats. You know why, because the 355 00:16:47,320 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: things they care about from the federal government on education 356 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: are like funding and getting more teachers in the classroom. 357 00:16:53,840 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: Those are the sorts of things that they're interested in 358 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: hearing from candidates. So I know they think this is 359 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:02,080 Speaker 1: a real winner. I don't think there is any evidence 360 00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,200 Speaker 1: to back that up whatsoever. What do you think, Marshall. 361 00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 1: The other side of the coin, I would say is 362 00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis just won by twenty points. You know, he's incredible. 363 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: This is essentially if I were to look at this, 364 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 1: I'd say this is the DeSantis theory of the case. 365 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 1: Republicans did win six percent on the national popular vote 366 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 1: during the mid terms. They clearly think that this is 367 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 1: a winner. What do you think of this as a 368 00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 1: response in relation to what Chrysal and Kyle were saying. Yeah, 369 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:28,120 Speaker 1: I just want to echo what they both said because 370 00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 1: I think it's really helpful analysis. So a my take 371 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,120 Speaker 1: would probably be that education is the definition with state, 372 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,960 Speaker 1: and I mean it literally is the way I'm restructure. 373 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 1: But if you're looking if I would bet money that 374 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 1: if you're looking at a state like Florida, in a 375 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,359 Speaker 1: state like Virginia, a purple state in the case of 376 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:46,240 Speaker 1: Virginia and now a very red state in the case 377 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 1: of Florida, Yeah, it's probably true that if you're fighting 378 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 1: over school boards and you're fighting over how the specific 379 00:17:52,119 --> 00:17:55,040 Speaker 1: state government's going to set education's bath. Yeah, totally. I 380 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 1: think that's the definition of an issue where publics could 381 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: win on. But I think we can look at the 382 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:01,360 Speaker 1: results in the twenty twenty midterms and say, hey, if 383 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 1: we zoom out, does that state and local energy translate 384 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,080 Speaker 1: to national issues? I don't see it as much. And 385 00:18:07,080 --> 00:18:10,680 Speaker 1: then Sager secondly to your point about Florida. Look, I 386 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 1: would bet that if we just took out let's say 387 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: Ron de Santis's fight with Disney, and let's say, for example, 388 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 1: how he's really been aggressive on the university system, like 389 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:25,400 Speaker 1: aka appointing new boards at Florida University is like explicitly 390 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 1: fighting against wokeness. That's about him signaling for the twenty 391 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: twenty four Republican primary. It has nothing to do with 392 00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 1: the broader party realignment in Florida. I bet if we 393 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: actually looked at the voters, who, for example, were probably 394 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 1: more purple in the two thousands, they're not voting based 395 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 1: on how Disney is specially, like Disney has a special 396 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:47,200 Speaker 1: district that was governed in a unique way. Him getting 397 00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:49,760 Speaker 1: rid of that isn't shifting those voters. It's just the 398 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: the Florida Democratic Party has been a dumpster fire since 399 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:56,040 Speaker 1: basically twenty ten. So I think that's the most important 400 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 1: thing you need to think about. Go ahead, guys, what 401 00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: was I going to say something about? Uh? Especially Sager, 402 00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: you made this point about you were laying out what 403 00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:10,200 Speaker 1: if you were DeSantis, how you would run against Trump, 404 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:12,920 Speaker 1: and you were talking about, Look, the economy in Florida 405 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,880 Speaker 1: is good, open for business. I think to Marshall's point, 406 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 1: like his strength in that's in the state, and the 407 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 1: fact that he was able to win and win so 408 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 1: you know, a lot sidedly, I think has a lot 409 00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 1: more to do with that than it does these niche 410 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:35,400 Speaker 1: hyper online Republican base issues, which may serve him well 411 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:38,399 Speaker 1: in a Republican primary. But back to your question, marshal 412 00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:40,920 Speaker 1: of like, are Republicans going to be able to read 413 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: the room in terms of the mood of the electorate, 414 00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:49,120 Speaker 1: Like how many regular moms, like swing mom voters out 415 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 1: there are, like, you know what really the problem in 416 00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 1: the country is and in my life is wokeness. It's 417 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,200 Speaker 1: to your point though, DeSantis, he I watched his debate 418 00:19:59,280 --> 00:20:03,440 Speaker 1: with Charlie and when debating Charlie Christ he didn't just 419 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:07,520 Speaker 1: do the you know, Republican Ron DeSantis primary tap dance, 420 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,120 Speaker 1: he did the general election sort of tap dance. Yes, 421 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,600 Speaker 1: And so hearing what Sarah Huckabye Sanders said there, that 422 00:20:13,960 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 1: sounds to me more like a Republican primary speech than 423 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,479 Speaker 1: a general election speech. And she should be doing more 424 00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:23,680 Speaker 1: general election type speech now, because you're talking nominally to 425 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 1: the whole country, not just to your own little health. 426 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 1: So she also is probably auditioning for like a vice 427 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 1: presidential slut. Yeah, who knows. I think my actual takeaway 428 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 1: is that all of that would be smart. But here's 429 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 1: the thing. Republicans don't actually agree on economic policy, so 430 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:38,359 Speaker 1: you just have to leave that out of the speach. 431 00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: And I actually think that the real reason that it's 432 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 1: not in there outside of a mention of high gas 433 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:46,720 Speaker 1: prices and yeah, or taxes, is literally because they really 434 00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 1: don't agree across the gamut on all of this. Yeah. 435 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 1: I mean, look, I've always thought it's a potent strategy 436 00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:55,200 Speaker 1: for Rohn DeSantis. I thought, look at the scoreboard was 437 00:20:55,240 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: the best political comeback that he's given so far. It's perfect, right, 438 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: just look at the scoreboard in terms of how they're talking, 439 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 1: you know, in his debates or whatever. With Gavin Newsom, 440 00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,680 Speaker 1: It's like, dude, literally half a million of year people 441 00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 1: moved to my state. That's it, dunk. And the reason 442 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: why is open for business, keeping the schools open. Everybody's 443 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:17,440 Speaker 1: moving here. We're dynamic, we're having fun. We're trying to 444 00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:19,800 Speaker 1: to the extent that we're prosecuting the culture war, it's 445 00:21:19,840 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 1: to try and preserve normalcy quote unquote, whatever that means 446 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,280 Speaker 1: to the people of Florida. So that's probably why I 447 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,280 Speaker 1: think that the Sarah Huckabee Standards speech is not going 448 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,520 Speaker 1: to land necessarily in the way that it needs to. 449 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 1: But let's also consider this, how many people are watching 450 00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 1: that actual rebuttal right, is this really at this point? 451 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,600 Speaker 1: Is this the general election or what do we all 452 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 1: talk about? That's a Republican primary speech. What probably Republicans 453 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:45,840 Speaker 1: are the only ones going to watch it. What's the 454 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,479 Speaker 1: reality that all three of these cable networks even play Well, 455 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,480 Speaker 1: we're not going to play it. The only way a 456 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,280 Speaker 1: lot of people are going to watch it is if 457 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: it's a freaking disaster. We'll watch the flips of it after, 458 00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 1: you know, situation. I think about here every time I 459 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 1: drink something on here on the stage. Yeah, yeah, like 460 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:08,959 Speaker 1: I hope I don't Bobby Jindle, Now, I'm also traumatized 461 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 1: by the Merca Review water drinking situation, so I have 462 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,399 Speaker 1: to like drink water on camera. Yeah, And Bobby Jindle, 463 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:17,680 Speaker 1: I mean that one is just infamous because that dude 464 00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 1: was seen as like the up and coming star and 465 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,920 Speaker 1: then that was it. That was it. So there is 466 00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,000 Speaker 1: a chance that a lot of people will see Sarah 467 00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 1: Huckabee Sanders speech, but she should hope that that is 468 00:22:28,880 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 1: not what comes to pass. That's a good point Okay, 469 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:33,640 Speaker 1: let's let's talk about polling data, because this actually gets 470 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,840 Speaker 1: to exactly what we're all talking about. What do people 471 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 1: care about going into the State of the Union. So 472 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 1: let's go ahead and throw up this next element here 473 00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:43,200 Speaker 1: up on the screen, latest data that we have from 474 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,160 Speaker 1: Pew Research, right ahead of the State of the Union. 475 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go ahead and read these off. Our graphics 476 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,680 Speaker 1: team did a great job here. Strengthening the economy is 477 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 1: the American top policy priority. Dealing with COVID nineteen is 478 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: among the lowest, so that gives me some hope. So 479 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,159 Speaker 1: I'm gonna read these off. Number my number, Strengthening the 480 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:05,040 Speaker 1: economy seventy five, reducing healthcare sixty percent or sixty percent, 481 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:09,560 Speaker 1: Defending against terrorism sixty Reducing the influence of money in 482 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 1: politics fifty nine, making medicare financially sound fifty eight, reducing 483 00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:18,840 Speaker 1: the budget deficit fifty seven, Reducing crime fifty seven, Improving 484 00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:23,280 Speaker 1: education fifty seven, reducing the availability of illegal drugs fifty three, 485 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: dealing with immigration fifty three, energy fifty two, improving the 486 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,920 Speaker 1: job situation forty nine, dealing with the problems of poor 487 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 1: people forty seven, the environment forty four, transportation forty two, 488 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:39,200 Speaker 1: military forty, dealing with climate change thirty seven, dealing with 489 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 1: global trade is thirty four, Addressing issues around race is 490 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 1: thirty two, dealing with challenges facing parents is twenty seven, 491 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,200 Speaker 1: and dealing with the coronavirus outbreak is all the way 492 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,920 Speaker 1: at the bottom with twenty six. So what I take 493 00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 1: away from that is that this is the you know 494 00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: and I hate using the phrase, but it's a kitchen 495 00:23:56,400 --> 00:24:00,199 Speaker 1: table you know issue as normal, and it's like one 496 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:02,919 Speaker 1: of those which is kichi. You sound like a nineteen 497 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,959 Speaker 1: nineties Bill Clinton political pundit, but you know, the guy 498 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,120 Speaker 1: who won the presidency, So maybe we should just borrow 499 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,520 Speaker 1: from it. What do you take away from those numbers, Marshal, 500 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,480 Speaker 1: in the context of everything that we're talking about, you 501 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:15,159 Speaker 1: can finish. You could sip your drink first and then answer, no, 502 00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:18,680 Speaker 1: I'm stapped. We're going to go so ay. The number 503 00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: one thing that stock out to me, and you read 504 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,480 Speaker 1: that out loud, was that energy was in the middle, 505 00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:26,040 Speaker 1: which seems like a huge win if you're Biden and 506 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:29,600 Speaker 1: you I agree if you had this conversation in the 507 00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:32,840 Speaker 1: middle of the summer, like I was saying earlier, it's 508 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 1: all the energy. It's all about the prices being hide 509 00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 1: It's all about everyone seeing the photo of that what 510 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:41,000 Speaker 1: seven eight dollars gas fan in California. So that's the 511 00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 1: victory right there. And that's kind of the point we're 512 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 1: making at the top about Biden doesn't have to convince 513 00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,639 Speaker 1: people that everything is hunky Dorian perfect. That's not what 514 00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 1: his job has been. It's kind of funny if you're 515 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:54,440 Speaker 1: and this is kind of why there's this interesting like 516 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,160 Speaker 1: Obama versus Biden contraos. I think if you're a president Obama, 517 00:24:57,520 --> 00:24:59,439 Speaker 1: you have to convince more of that. For Biden, it's 518 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:03,639 Speaker 1: basically like book man, it's pretty okay, let's keep things okay. 519 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,800 Speaker 1: So that really falls into that. And then two and 520 00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 1: this is just where the COVID thing's so interesting. This 521 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 1: goes back to the Rond de Santis conversation. To what 522 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 1: degree is the twenty twenty four electure going to be 523 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 1: interested in relitigating twenty twenty and twenty twenty one. So 524 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:21,680 Speaker 1: that's another thing to really think about there too, because 525 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 1: that whole number of COVID concerns just I think we 526 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:27,920 Speaker 1: generally skew towards us just moving on from that issue, 527 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,880 Speaker 1: and basically in either direction, pretending it didn't happen or not. Yeah. Well, 528 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: and that's a problem for Rond DeSantis too, because his 529 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:37,879 Speaker 1: whole case against Trump is about what he did with 530 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 1: regard to the coronavirus versus what Trump did. And so 531 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,680 Speaker 1: if that is lessening, if that's becoming less of a 532 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:48,560 Speaker 1: hot issue, even among Republican base voters, that makes his 533 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,320 Speaker 1: case somewhat less compelling at this point. But you know, 534 00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:54,760 Speaker 1: looking at the issue set, it makes sense why Biden 535 00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:56,200 Speaker 1: is going to focus on some of the things that 536 00:25:56,280 --> 00:26:00,240 Speaker 1: he's going to focus on. Apparently in his Date of 537 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,280 Speaker 1: the Union address, he's going to pull back some of 538 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,680 Speaker 1: the build back better elements that you didn't make it 539 00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,480 Speaker 1: through into the Inflation Reduction Act, talking about renewing the 540 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 1: expanded child tax Credit, something I am very big on, 541 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: a thirty five dollars insulin cap for all Americans. That 542 00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,119 Speaker 1: also be great. And healthcare costs was one of the 543 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:20,200 Speaker 1: top issues there, Medicaid expansion and eleven states, and childcare 544 00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 1: and elder care. Now, as Soccer said, these are all 545 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:25,240 Speaker 1: the solid messaging. None of this is going to happen 546 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:28,440 Speaker 1: with the Republicans in control of the House. So this 547 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:32,119 Speaker 1: begins to lay out what the reelect pitch will be, 548 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,320 Speaker 1: what I would do in a second term as president. 549 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 1: But you can see he's like squarely focused on these 550 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,200 Speaker 1: sort of core economic issues that clearly are top of 551 00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 1: mine for voters. Yeah, and when you look at the 552 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,439 Speaker 1: top one, strengthen the economy that you have, reducing healthcare costs, 553 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 1: there are things he can point to of like, look, 554 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:50,919 Speaker 1: we're moving in the right direction here. So the thing 555 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,680 Speaker 1: we were talking about earlier, Crystal, we're on shoring three 556 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand jobs right now. That's something that 557 00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:59,640 Speaker 1: he probably will brag about if I had to guess. Also, 558 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,040 Speaker 1: on lowering health care costs, I mean, as part of 559 00:27:02,119 --> 00:27:05,679 Speaker 1: the IRA, they do have lower prescription drug prices. Now 560 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 1: it's only for it's only certain drugs, and it's only 561 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: for seniors. But there's also a cap that two thousand 562 00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,360 Speaker 1: dollars out of pocket and there's two hundred and eighty 563 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 1: eight billion dollars in savings for seniors. These are things 564 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,720 Speaker 1: that he could bring up to say like, look, I'm 565 00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 1: addressing your your top concerns and so like I'm on it, 566 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,480 Speaker 1: and what are those guys doing nothing? Yeah? By the way. 567 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 1: A shout out to the live chat Marshall. My favorite 568 00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,639 Speaker 1: comments so far is that you are the breaking points 569 00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:36,479 Speaker 1: designated survivor. That's a good one. That's a good one. 570 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:38,359 Speaker 1: They gotta they gotta shout it out to all of them, 571 00:27:38,440 --> 00:27:44,480 Speaker 1: you guys. The terrible monologue got on to open with tomorrow. Yeah, 572 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,880 Speaker 1: just get chat Gptrie, just get chat TPT to write 573 00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:51,800 Speaker 1: it if we get if we get, by the way, 574 00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 1: you know, if the capital does, God forbid, get attacked, 575 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,120 Speaker 1: we will be incinerated in the blast because we're close 576 00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 1: enough to that. So we love you all. You'll be 577 00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:02,200 Speaker 1: able all of that going on here. If we have 578 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:03,920 Speaker 1: any super chats that are good, we'll go ahead and 579 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 1: read some of those were. Saga floated beforehand that George 580 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 1: Santos should be the designated survivor because he's what the country. 581 00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,200 Speaker 1: He's a true he's what I deserve, what the country is. 582 00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,600 Speaker 1: I have a fun Santos update of if everybody is interested. 583 00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:20,399 Speaker 1: Santos has sat himself in the center aisle of the 584 00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:24,640 Speaker 1: House of Representative specifically to try and shake President Biden's 585 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 1: hand on national TV, and he is drawing attention to 586 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:33,000 Speaker 1: himself with a bright traffic cone, orange tie. Oh my god, 587 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,359 Speaker 1: you gotta give it to the man. He has no shame. 588 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:40,240 Speaker 1: That is a bad call. First of all fashion wise disaster, 589 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,600 Speaker 1: but second just the shamelessness, like he knows that millions, 590 00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:46,720 Speaker 1: tens of millions of people are going to watch. He's 591 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 1: going to go in there for that handshake. There are 592 00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:51,200 Speaker 1: a couple of notorious members of Congress who do this, 593 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,760 Speaker 1: who get their hours and hours early. Shila Jackson Lee. 594 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:56,400 Speaker 1: I remember from my time as a congressional intern, it 595 00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,200 Speaker 1: was like lore that she always does it because apparently 596 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 1: her constitution. You ands are always like I saw you 597 00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 1: at the State of the Union shake. Apparently it works. Again. 598 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 1: I don't know why people watch this thing's good. Is 599 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,720 Speaker 1: going to save George Santos's career? Maybe it will that 600 00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,160 Speaker 1: big Biden and shake and you can grab the photo. 601 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:14,440 Speaker 1: It's amazing. I who credits happen? Though? How can you 602 00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:16,280 Speaker 1: have GOP creds if he's going to sit there and 603 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:19,480 Speaker 1: shake the president's hand. Gotta do what he's got to do, 604 00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 1: ask for other stunts. Kevin McCarthy has confirmed he will 605 00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:24,480 Speaker 1: not rip up the State of the Union. So thank 606 00:29:24,520 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 1: you Kevin for this. In the House. Yeah, will he 607 00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,760 Speaker 1: will do a clap like this. It's always fun. Actually, 608 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 1: that's actually his biggest problem. He just you're not going 609 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:37,480 Speaker 1: to tur into me meme in either direction. I agree. Yeah, 610 00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,600 Speaker 1: he doesn't have it him. That's fair, that's unfortunate. Something 611 00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: I look for at a good speaker of the House 612 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 1: is very memorable, right, I mean, listen, actually, Biden, if 613 00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:48,320 Speaker 1: I remember, it was hilarious to watch during Obama's State 614 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: of the Unions he would sometimes like forget to button 615 00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 1: his jacket or sometimes you would do that thing where 616 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,080 Speaker 1: he would button every time he stood up unbuttoned every time. 617 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,680 Speaker 1: It was like, chill, dude, just up and down. It's 618 00:29:57,680 --> 00:29:59,480 Speaker 1: all good. You know, we're fine. You don't need to 619 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 1: button it. There's always the game too, of like who's 620 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,640 Speaker 1: going to stand for which lines and who's going to 621 00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:08,040 Speaker 1: sit for the other lines. There's always that dynamic going 622 00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 1: on too, my Majesty of the State of the Year. Yeah, 623 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:12,560 Speaker 1: it is funny though, because I mean, people really do 624 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,040 Speaker 1: take time out, like normal people take time out and 625 00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:18,880 Speaker 1: sit down, and it is part of like the American tradition, 626 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,040 Speaker 1: and so it is as much as we sort of 627 00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 1: make fun of some of the pomp and circumstance and 628 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,640 Speaker 1: like ridiculous nature of how this all comes together and 629 00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 1: the way people behave et cetera. It is important, and 630 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,960 Speaker 1: I'm in favor of more transparency, more account and more 631 00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:34,880 Speaker 1: going in front of the American people and laying out 632 00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:36,520 Speaker 1: what you did and how you're selling it and what 633 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,320 Speaker 1: you think about it and what's going to come next. 634 00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,080 Speaker 1: So I am I am a State of the Union supporter, 635 00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:45,200 Speaker 1: and I am I am unironically excited to hear how 636 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,480 Speaker 1: this all goes tonight. The one thing I wish people 637 00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:49,480 Speaker 1: every now and then a president would do is be 638 00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 1: a like more honest and say, ladies and gentlemen, the 639 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:56,400 Speaker 1: state of the Union is terrible. There actually was one. 640 00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,400 Speaker 1: I forget who was We watched the compilation the other day. 641 00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:00,480 Speaker 1: I remember who what was it? Ford? I think maybe 642 00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:02,680 Speaker 1: Ford did it well. He did it in a way 643 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:05,640 Speaker 1: where he was like it was like moving on from Nixon, 644 00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,600 Speaker 1: as in it was like, look I get it, you 645 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 1: know that time. So but now we're all together. I 646 00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:12,720 Speaker 1: bought it the other guy, I mean, he was smart. 647 00:31:12,760 --> 00:31:15,120 Speaker 1: He almost won re election. So it actually I was 648 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:16,760 Speaker 1: going to say, how that, how did that turn out 649 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 1: for our president. It came close. You got to give 650 00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,080 Speaker 1: the man credit and credit where it's due. Actually, wait, 651 00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:25,120 Speaker 1: we're quick, Kyle, because that's kind of interesting because you 652 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 1: think about it. I think, and this goes to the 653 00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:29,320 Speaker 1: whole debate about whether or not the Republicans want to 654 00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 1: make Trump the presidential candidate again. Trump is the only 655 00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,640 Speaker 1: guy in modern American politics who's won and once again 656 00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,520 Speaker 1: referring to twenty fifteen twenty sixteen on a message of 657 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 1: pessimism and carnage, Like we make fun of Jimmy Carter 658 00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:45,280 Speaker 1: for saying Malays for a reason, I mean technically say Malays, 659 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:47,400 Speaker 1: but like it was called the Malays speech because that 660 00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:49,880 Speaker 1: was the general vibe of it. But I think it's 661 00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 1: a real interesting test of whether or not people are 662 00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:55,240 Speaker 1: going to want to hear but everything is shitty versus hey, 663 00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,479 Speaker 1: we're moving forward, things are getting more normal again. That's 664 00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,120 Speaker 1: another one of those debates of what the count his 665 00:32:00,200 --> 00:32:02,160 Speaker 1: mood is. Yeah, I mean there was there was a 666 00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:04,440 Speaker 1: realism to it though, you know, like when Trump was 667 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,680 Speaker 1: Trump was specific in saying, you know, our infrastructure is 668 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 1: a mess, our airports are a mess. You know, the 669 00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 1: middle of the country has been hollowed out, we're shipping 670 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:15,720 Speaker 1: all the jobs to Mexico, and that stuff is actually true, 671 00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,600 Speaker 1: you know. Now, Republicans were used to the Ronald Reagan 672 00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:20,600 Speaker 1: style of politics for a very long time, where it's 673 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:23,840 Speaker 1: like morning in America and everything's happy and sunshine and 674 00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:26,480 Speaker 1: puppies and all that stuff, and Trump really changed that mold. 675 00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:30,120 Speaker 1: I think a lot of that is dependent on the personality, 676 00:32:30,360 --> 00:32:33,760 Speaker 1: kind of like, can the personality, you know, create a 677 00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:37,240 Speaker 1: convincing case with the pessimism or is it you know, 678 00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,000 Speaker 1: somebody whose disposition is more in line with something that's 679 00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 1: like sunny and positive. You know, I think I think 680 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,480 Speaker 1: there are other candidates would probably get away with it. 681 00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:45,880 Speaker 1: And I mean to an extent. Bernie kind of did 682 00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:47,520 Speaker 1: that too, right twenty fifteen to twenty sixteen, he was 683 00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,040 Speaker 1: more hopeful, but certainly yeah, yeah, exactly, yeah, But I 684 00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:53,800 Speaker 1: mean I think that is a note that Biden could 685 00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,600 Speaker 1: potentially land. Listen, I just don't, okay, all right, Biden 686 00:32:57,640 --> 00:32:59,440 Speaker 1: at this point in his career, No, he probably can't. 687 00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:05,000 Speaker 1: Let me want not that. But I don't think there 688 00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 1: is anything more powerful than meeting people where they are 689 00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:11,720 Speaker 1: then expressing a truth that they feel like in their 690 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 1: life and that they don't feel like is being reflected 691 00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 1: in Washington. And that was the power of Trump, Like 692 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,520 Speaker 1: he said things that other politicians weren't saying, and people 693 00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,800 Speaker 1: were like, you know what, I feel that, Like, that's 694 00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 1: what I see. That's how I see things at this point. 695 00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:29,200 Speaker 1: And so you can meet people where they're at and 696 00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,760 Speaker 1: not just be like and so everything sucks. I mean, 697 00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:35,560 Speaker 1: Biden always layers in this like, you know, American exceptionalism, 698 00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:38,480 Speaker 1: optimism where we're like, we're America, We're gonna do this 699 00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,320 Speaker 1: and whatever, like he you can have that piece too, 700 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,840 Speaker 1: and here's the plan and here's how we're gonna pull 701 00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,400 Speaker 1: it together. I just think it's a fool's errand to 702 00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,239 Speaker 1: try to persuade people that the economy is amazing when 703 00:33:49,280 --> 00:33:51,320 Speaker 1: that's not what they feel in their lives. By the way, 704 00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:53,640 Speaker 1: Trump would also when he did his State of the Unions, 705 00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,280 Speaker 1: he would also brag relentlessly, so like, as long as 706 00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,000 Speaker 1: he's in power, it's like everything's great, everything's phenomenally is amazing. 707 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,120 Speaker 1: But when he was out of hours, remember when he 708 00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 1: was having the debate publicly, should I do make America 709 00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:06,640 Speaker 1: great again again? Or should I do keep America great. Remember, Yeah, 710 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:08,640 Speaker 1: he was like pulling the audience again. I think he 711 00:34:08,760 --> 00:34:12,200 Speaker 1: actually used both uh slogans first. It certainly did. Yeah, 712 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,560 Speaker 1: I mean that was actually a funny time. I remember that. 713 00:34:14,640 --> 00:34:16,640 Speaker 1: By the way, shout out to our super chats Marshall. 714 00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,719 Speaker 1: Somebody wants to get you on JR. Kyle. Somebody is 715 00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:24,000 Speaker 1: loving the hair and somebody says I would make an 716 00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:27,080 Speaker 1: excellent statesman. You are incorrect, sir, I do not agree 717 00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:32,640 Speaker 1: with that. Puddling back a little bit, Marshall, you I 718 00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:35,720 Speaker 1: don't remember the quote, but there was a Peter Teal 719 00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:39,480 Speaker 1: quote I believe from what was it twenty fifteen where 720 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,480 Speaker 1: he talked about supporting Trump, and it was anchored in 721 00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:45,239 Speaker 1: exactly what we're talking about here where Teal, known in 722 00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:49,080 Speaker 1: Silicon Valley for contrarianism, effectively said something and Marshall will 723 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,360 Speaker 1: fill in the gap here where he was like, No, 724 00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:53,680 Speaker 1: I actually think that the message to bet On is 725 00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,240 Speaker 1: a message of decline, not a message of optimism. Marshall, 726 00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,279 Speaker 1: I know you have more of the details on that. Yeah. No, 727 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:03,160 Speaker 1: this is in the George Packers interviews with Peter Thiel 728 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,520 Speaker 1: from twenty thirteen. Ye also did a great book called 729 00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:08,239 Speaker 1: The Unwinding. It's somewhere back here, but I think folks 730 00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:11,560 Speaker 1: should definitely check out George's twenty ten's work. But basically 731 00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,759 Speaker 1: the point of the quote was Peter was saying, my 732 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,359 Speaker 1: contrarian bet is that everyone thinks that people are looking 733 00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,839 Speaker 1: for optimism and a sunny disposition. This is coming out 734 00:35:19,880 --> 00:35:22,520 Speaker 1: of obviously twenty twelve, where you've got ntt Romney and 735 00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:25,880 Speaker 1: Paul Ryan running as America's comeback team. All that like 736 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:29,200 Speaker 1: very specific, like we can rebuild and fix all the 737 00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,640 Speaker 1: mistakes Obama's supposedly made. And his point was, I think 738 00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:34,839 Speaker 1: whoever's smart is going to pick up on the vibe 739 00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:37,800 Speaker 1: that the country wants something negative. And obviously I guarantee 740 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:40,640 Speaker 1: you that Trump did not read The Unwinding or read 741 00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,839 Speaker 1: the New Yorker. But once again, I think I think 742 00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:46,640 Speaker 1: that speaks out in certain moments. Certain politicians have specific 743 00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:50,000 Speaker 1: skill sets that are important, and Trump's important skill set 744 00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:52,239 Speaker 1: in twenty fourteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen was that he 745 00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,839 Speaker 1: could pick that up when all of his opponents, Marco 746 00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,799 Speaker 1: ru Rubio running as like the candidate of the New 747 00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:00,440 Speaker 1: American century. That was actually what the slow and you 748 00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:02,400 Speaker 1: have like Jeff Bush saying we're going to have like 749 00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,680 Speaker 1: four percent economic growth and we can do it. But 750 00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,520 Speaker 1: this once again the problem though of a politician who's 751 00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,879 Speaker 1: specifically good in one moment and not another moment, which 752 00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,959 Speaker 1: is Trump bringing that energy to periods when he didn't 753 00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,000 Speaker 1: need to bring it. And I also think Trump's like 754 00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,680 Speaker 1: everything is a disaster. Energy is also is also what 755 00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,240 Speaker 1: urges him to be an election denier. It's what urges 756 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:31,399 Speaker 1: him to select ridiculous candidates like you know, Carrie Lake 757 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,279 Speaker 1: use his endorsements improperly. So the real test is can 758 00:36:35,320 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 1: twenty six can he course correct, which probably not honestly. 759 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:40,440 Speaker 1: It's also I mean, it's also the difference between being 760 00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,640 Speaker 1: an incumbent and being an opposition. Right, If you're an opposition, 761 00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:45,879 Speaker 1: it's easier to be like everything sucks and these people 762 00:36:45,920 --> 00:36:49,440 Speaker 1: are blowing in it's terrible, And yeah, it's harder. I mean, 763 00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:51,759 Speaker 1: admittedly you're in a more difficult position and you're like, 764 00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:54,040 Speaker 1: I've been president for a few years now and things 765 00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:56,440 Speaker 1: are still challenging, but we've done some good stuff. I mean, 766 00:36:56,520 --> 00:36:58,680 Speaker 1: there is just more of a line ultimately that you 767 00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:02,160 Speaker 1: have to walk there. Yeah, that's true. Quick shout out. 768 00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:05,839 Speaker 1: Somebody left a super chat Alex dos Lieb. He says 769 00:37:05,920 --> 00:37:09,480 Speaker 1: Biden fetishizes by partisanship so much he has one red 770 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,839 Speaker 1: eyeball and one blue eyeball. I'll be happy and wrong 771 00:37:11,920 --> 00:37:14,920 Speaker 1: if he vetos cuts to Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security. 772 00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,319 Speaker 1: I do think he would veto cuts to Medicare at 773 00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,720 Speaker 1: Social Security. Also, given the fact that you have Donald 774 00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:22,040 Speaker 1: Trump out there literally saying don't do that. So there's 775 00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,400 Speaker 1: going to be a sizeable portion of Republican senators and 776 00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:28,160 Speaker 1: of Republican congressmen who are like, look, I'm They're like, 777 00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:30,279 Speaker 1: I may support this stuff behind the scenes, but I'm 778 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,480 Speaker 1: not voting for that. So hope that's true. I hope 779 00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,400 Speaker 1: Trump really still has that kind of sway over them. 780 00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:37,960 Speaker 1: I personally think that, yes, I believe that on this 781 00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,640 Speaker 1: issue that while in the driver's seat the Freedom Caucus 782 00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,120 Speaker 1: and some of the ideologues there are, they're probably at 783 00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:45,920 Speaker 1: this point. I could be totally wrong and we will 784 00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 1: see what the ultimate vote count on this. I do 785 00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,520 Speaker 1: not think it will ultimately come down to cuts for 786 00:37:50,760 --> 00:37:53,880 Speaker 1: Social Security. I do think that is important. Fun factoid 787 00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,640 Speaker 1: Biden will be the oldest man to ever deliver the 788 00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,600 Speaker 1: State of the Union today and from this day forward. 789 00:38:00,719 --> 00:38:04,120 Speaker 1: So that is a fun one for everybody in terms 790 00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:06,759 Speaker 1: of what else that we know about the speech. One 791 00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:08,840 Speaker 1: of the things he's actually going to be taking credit for, Marshall, 792 00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:10,560 Speaker 1: and this goes to what you were talking about, is 793 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,600 Speaker 1: gas prices. So whenever you brought it up, I've got 794 00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,800 Speaker 1: the national average in front of me is three dollars, 795 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,720 Speaker 1: is three dollars and forty five cents a gallon on average, 796 00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:21,920 Speaker 1: I mean, still high, but it's not terrible. If you 797 00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:25,279 Speaker 1: look at a year ago, who's exactly three forty that's 798 00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,759 Speaker 1: right around the time that Russia invaded Ukraine or I 799 00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:31,319 Speaker 1: believe right before that. So gas is relatively stable. There's 800 00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,480 Speaker 1: not a state in this entire country where gas is 801 00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:36,040 Speaker 1: over five dollars a gallon. Our friends in California are 802 00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:38,480 Speaker 1: paying for sixty. Of course, that's going to be an 803 00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,200 Speaker 1: important metric. So I really think that he just has 804 00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,040 Speaker 1: to come back to the basics, like he's got to 805 00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:47,239 Speaker 1: talk about Trump, stop the steal. You want to frame 806 00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,240 Speaker 1: it exactly in that way. You want to hammer abortion 807 00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:54,160 Speaker 1: probably at the very top. Thank the voters who kept 808 00:38:54,200 --> 00:38:57,440 Speaker 1: the Democrats in the Senate. Give shout outs to John Fetterman, 809 00:38:57,719 --> 00:39:00,960 Speaker 1: give shout outs to who is the Arizona with the 810 00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:04,279 Speaker 1: Arizona gubernatorial candid Katie Hobbs. You want to give shout 811 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:06,800 Speaker 1: outs to those people and say we heard you on 812 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,719 Speaker 1: that issue. And you know, this is part of what's 813 00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,640 Speaker 1: fold to get back into reelection is but Republicans at 814 00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,839 Speaker 1: the House. So if you want us to get anything done, 815 00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,480 Speaker 1: you have to vote for us again in twenty twenty two. 816 00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:20,320 Speaker 1: So I want to ask Marshall, Marshall, how long do 817 00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:24,479 Speaker 1: you think Biden can keep going back to this January sixth? Well, 818 00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:29,440 Speaker 1: as long that's a great question, as long as Republicans 819 00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:34,200 Speaker 1: nominate candidates that activate voters as whoa, let's not do that. 820 00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:36,840 Speaker 1: And this is the thing because like that's actually the 821 00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:38,680 Speaker 1: way to think about which is the reason why Republicans 822 00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,840 Speaker 1: were screwed in twenty twenty two is they, like I 823 00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,319 Speaker 1: think many of us in like the commentary space, thought 824 00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:46,960 Speaker 1: that voters didn't care. And it's not as if like 825 00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,880 Speaker 1: Republicans were like and by that I mean like the 826 00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:52,520 Speaker 1: party establishment in DC. It's not as if they were, 827 00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:56,040 Speaker 1: you know, explicitly saying hey, stop this deal. I think 828 00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:57,960 Speaker 1: they were probably arguing or believing it's going to be 829 00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:01,680 Speaker 1: a wash was a huge issue obviously in those big 830 00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,799 Speaker 1: results in those swing states. So as long as Republicans 831 00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,400 Speaker 1: nominate the wrong candidates, and I'm not meaning wrong in 832 00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:09,400 Speaker 1: the moral sense, I'm saying wrong in the sense that 833 00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:14,879 Speaker 1: candidates who are performing for party primary bases who want 834 00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:18,920 Speaker 1: to hear stop the fuel bullshit with obviously like intercepting 835 00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:20,960 Speaker 1: with the general election. Right, is he be able to 836 00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,799 Speaker 1: talk about it until the Republican Party And by the way, 837 00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:26,080 Speaker 1: I don't mean the entire Republican Party. I mean until 838 00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:30,160 Speaker 1: swing state Republicans basically move on from this issue or 839 00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:34,120 Speaker 1: start saying in their primaries, Hey, well select whoever reads 840 00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:36,839 Speaker 1: the vibe and doesn't talk about lectures not working? Yeah, 841 00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:38,920 Speaker 1: why does anyone to go to it? Yes, yeah, you're 842 00:40:38,960 --> 00:40:41,520 Speaker 1: absolutely right. As long as as Donald Trump is alive 843 00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,200 Speaker 1: and breathing, Biden should thump it for all these are 844 00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,680 Speaker 1: not I wish it didn't work this way, folks, but 845 00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:50,960 Speaker 1: it does. So there's another piece of that's going to 846 00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:53,080 Speaker 1: be very critical to his performance. As much as we 847 00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,279 Speaker 1: all pay a lot of attention to the policy and 848 00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:57,520 Speaker 1: have a lot of opinions on what would be good 849 00:40:57,560 --> 00:40:59,920 Speaker 1: and what's bad and how things have gone all of that. 850 00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,800 Speaker 1: A lot of this is also people taking a vibe 851 00:41:03,880 --> 00:41:06,600 Speaker 1: check of whether this eighty year old man is up 852 00:41:06,719 --> 00:41:09,400 Speaker 1: to the task of another four years. That's good and 853 00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:13,479 Speaker 1: you know it's not just because they're concerned about okay, 854 00:41:13,560 --> 00:41:16,080 Speaker 1: can he personally handle it? But you also will have 855 00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:19,120 Speaker 1: visibly behind him Kamala Harris, the vice president who would 856 00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:20,959 Speaker 1: be next in line, who not a lot of people 857 00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:23,440 Speaker 1: are super fond of. We can actually put this up 858 00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,480 Speaker 1: on the screen from the New York Times. This piece 859 00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:30,000 Speaker 1: from the New York Times about Kamala Harris is devastating. 860 00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:32,160 Speaker 1: The headline here is Kamala Harris is trying to define 861 00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:34,880 Speaker 1: her vice presidency. Even her allies are tired of waiting. 862 00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:38,680 Speaker 1: They say in here that even some of the Democrats 863 00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:43,080 Speaker 1: that her own office told reporters would give them supportive 864 00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:47,000 Speaker 1: quotes confided privately that they had lost hope in her. 865 00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:51,279 Speaker 1: So even the people that Kamala Harris was like, this 866 00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,680 Speaker 1: guy is going to say great things about me, when 867 00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:55,759 Speaker 1: this New York Times reporter actually went to them, they 868 00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:58,360 Speaker 1: were like, Oh, this is not going that well. And 869 00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:02,080 Speaker 1: so you couple the ag issue with concerns about whether 870 00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:04,719 Speaker 1: the current vice president would be up to the job, 871 00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:09,240 Speaker 1: and just the optics of how he's able to navigate 872 00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:11,600 Speaker 1: the speech and what his energy level is like and 873 00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:15,880 Speaker 1: how he delivers it. That's going to be almost as crucial, sober, 874 00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:18,400 Speaker 1: I think, as anything else that he says here. Absolutely. 875 00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:19,960 Speaker 1: I mean, one of the things that always drives me 876 00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:23,440 Speaker 1: crazy is that they mentioned like Biden who overcame his stutter, 877 00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:25,600 Speaker 1: and they're like, he's working very hard on over Listen. 878 00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:27,960 Speaker 1: I've listened to the man for literally over a decade. 879 00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:31,600 Speaker 1: He didn't have a stutter until he miraculously became seventy 880 00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:33,960 Speaker 1: eight years old and started running for president again, shocking. 881 00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:36,480 Speaker 1: So they're appointing that as one of the issues that 882 00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:39,120 Speaker 1: he's going to have to deal with is overcome his stutter. 883 00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:41,120 Speaker 1: You're right, though, Look it's a key thing. And if 884 00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,080 Speaker 1: you look at all of the polling data that we 885 00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:47,360 Speaker 1: have available to us, Biden's age is a serious problem. 886 00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:49,759 Speaker 1: It is one of the major reservations. It's one of 887 00:42:49,840 --> 00:42:52,879 Speaker 1: the main reasons Democrats do not want him to run again. 888 00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:56,080 Speaker 1: I mean, you said this, and it's internal. He will 889 00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:59,120 Speaker 1: be eighty six years old on his last year's president. 890 00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:02,839 Speaker 1: If he gets real that's crazy, like eighty six years old. 891 00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:06,200 Speaker 1: I don't. It's difficult to even describe. I think. I mean, 892 00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:09,000 Speaker 1: most people know who has interacted with somebody who has 893 00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:12,080 Speaker 1: that old and exactly what exponential decline can look like, 894 00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:14,520 Speaker 1: especially at that age. This is not a commentary. I 895 00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:18,359 Speaker 1: hope that it doesn't happen to him, but if we're 896 00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:20,920 Speaker 1: betting on the odds, it's very likely to. And then 897 00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:23,560 Speaker 1: then if you're going to have a political successor, one 898 00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:26,520 Speaker 1: of our super chats says, I hope that Biden fires 899 00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,759 Speaker 1: mayor Pete live on the air. That would be good 900 00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:34,839 Speaker 1: for his political popularity. I agree, we're gonna make air. 901 00:43:35,040 --> 00:43:38,279 Speaker 1: He goes, come on, man, airplanes aren't flying. You're out 902 00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:40,120 Speaker 1: of here. We got by the way, we have the 903 00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:43,400 Speaker 1: exact same super chat. Oh really that is perfect. Whoever 904 00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:46,680 Speaker 1: that guy is, I love this guy. It's true to 905 00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:52,640 Speaker 1: a lot of normy Americans, vibes really do matter. Vibes 906 00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,160 Speaker 1: are really important, and so a lot of the speech 907 00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:58,799 Speaker 1: is going to be just about optics and very intangible 908 00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:02,040 Speaker 1: things like was he communicating? And so I hope they 909 00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:04,440 Speaker 1: give him a nice solid dose of adderall, and he 910 00:44:04,480 --> 00:44:07,160 Speaker 1: can get through it. I also wanted to point out 911 00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,279 Speaker 1: that I do find it genuinely hilarious that Biden really 912 00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,080 Speaker 1: struggles to talk, but he's more popular than Kamala Harris. 913 00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,600 Speaker 1: That's that's interesting to me. And there's something she has, 914 00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,600 Speaker 1: like she has like an anti charisma about her. I 915 00:44:19,719 --> 00:44:21,920 Speaker 1: love there was a story that came out yesterday or 916 00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:26,040 Speaker 1: the day before where she says how she hates platitudes, 917 00:44:27,080 --> 00:44:29,719 Speaker 1: which is the most ironic thing anybody's ever said, because 918 00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:33,279 Speaker 1: she is a platitude machine. Got yeah, glorious. What were 919 00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:35,200 Speaker 1: you saying there, Marshall? Go ahead, Well, you know, I 920 00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:37,759 Speaker 1: just I think the thing that so several things, So 921 00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,120 Speaker 1: one I just looked it up. So Trump right now 922 00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:42,360 Speaker 1: is seventy six years old. And this is one of 923 00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:47,000 Speaker 1: those awkward arguments that Desantas is in such an awkward 924 00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:50,920 Speaker 1: position because the strongest arguments he could make are ones 925 00:44:50,960 --> 00:44:53,320 Speaker 1: that are that basically could rely on actually assuming that 926 00:44:53,400 --> 00:44:55,719 Speaker 1: Biden is more powerful he looks. So I make those 927 00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,840 Speaker 1: like I think those So for example, if Biden is 928 00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:01,880 Speaker 1: just this like weak, hobbled old man, he's going to 929 00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:05,520 Speaker 1: be you know, knocked over just like that Okay, like, 930 00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:08,279 Speaker 1: does it really matter that Trump is also seventy six 931 00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:10,520 Speaker 1: years that Trump is seventy six years old and would 932 00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:12,840 Speaker 1: obviously be like, you know, in his mid eighties by 933 00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:15,040 Speaker 1: the time he leaves as well. Too. A strong argument 934 00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:17,520 Speaker 1: for DeSantis would just be that generation would be making 935 00:45:17,800 --> 00:45:20,719 Speaker 1: an aggressive version of that generation argument, but he's not 936 00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:22,239 Speaker 1: gonna be able to make it, I think, for I 937 00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:25,040 Speaker 1: think complicated reasons, we're fuck what the GP base is 938 00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,200 Speaker 1: looking for. But then on a broader level too, I 939 00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:30,400 Speaker 1: think the problem that Republicans also have when they focus 940 00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:34,040 Speaker 1: on like Biden's you know, speech issues and how he's 941 00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,360 Speaker 1: dodding is I think at this point it's a sunk cost. 942 00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:41,840 Speaker 1: Everybody knows it's been priced in. You if you just 943 00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:46,320 Speaker 1: don't think that Joe Biden is particularly compelling speech issues aside, 944 00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:48,239 Speaker 1: you're probably already lost. Then I think the last thing 945 00:45:48,719 --> 00:45:51,800 Speaker 1: is that I'm just really skeptical of these whole numbers, 946 00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:54,440 Speaker 1: especially of like Democrats who are saying, oh, like, we 947 00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:56,640 Speaker 1: don't really want Biden to win run again, because I 948 00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:58,640 Speaker 1: think at the end of the day, if you give 949 00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,319 Speaker 1: them most of their alternatives, they're actually pausible. They don't 950 00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:04,440 Speaker 1: want that alternative. Yeah, that's fair. And then b if 951 00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:06,600 Speaker 1: you ask that question in the vacuum, that's a different 952 00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:11,040 Speaker 1: question than Okay Biden or Ron DeSantis, which is gonna 953 00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:13,319 Speaker 1: be the main thing. It's a base turnout issue, all right. 954 00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:16,319 Speaker 1: So let's take a look at some polling. Let's put 955 00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:19,640 Speaker 1: this next element up on the screen. B two and 956 00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:25,200 Speaker 1: you have Trump Biden head to head here from this 957 00:46:25,360 --> 00:46:29,360 Speaker 1: is ABC Washington Post, and you have had since September 958 00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:33,920 Speaker 1: a significant move towards Donald Trump. So they have Trump 959 00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:36,759 Speaker 1: over Biden forty eight forty five. That's three points. It's 960 00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:38,920 Speaker 1: I believe, within the margin of error, you have him 961 00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:43,680 Speaker 1: up nine points on Biden. With regards to independence, again, 962 00:46:43,800 --> 00:46:47,440 Speaker 1: this is a five point swing towards Trump from September. 963 00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:52,040 Speaker 1: And you know, the reason Joe Biden is won the 964 00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:54,799 Speaker 1: Democratic nomination, the reason he is president of the United 965 00:46:54,840 --> 00:46:57,160 Speaker 1: States right now is because Democrats thought he was the 966 00:46:57,239 --> 00:46:59,919 Speaker 1: most electable candidate and their number one goal was beating 967 00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:03,680 Speaker 1: Donald Trump. So the more he has numbers like this 968 00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,520 Speaker 1: where it's like, I don't know, I don't know, even 969 00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:10,319 Speaker 1: you're not even in a position to beat Donald after 970 00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,080 Speaker 1: everything that Donald Trump has done, and how sick everybody 971 00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:15,440 Speaker 1: is of this guy. You're still not in a position 972 00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:17,759 Speaker 1: to beat this guy. That's a real problem for him. 973 00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:20,879 Speaker 1: You're look at skeptical, Kyle Y. I'm very skeptical of that. Yeah. 974 00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:24,640 Speaker 1: I mean, look, we're a little removed from the insanity 975 00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:27,520 Speaker 1: of the Trump presidency, you know, but I don't think 976 00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:30,279 Speaker 1: it'll take all that much to remind Americans just how 977 00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:34,880 Speaker 1: insane Trump was. And yeah, Biden was the return to 978 00:47:35,040 --> 00:47:37,080 Speaker 1: normal candidate, like, Okay, things are going to a little 979 00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:39,600 Speaker 1: too wacky. Let's you know, let's get back in line here, 980 00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:42,440 Speaker 1: let's calm down a little bit. And he won. I 981 00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:45,560 Speaker 1: think if it were to be Biden versus Trump again, 982 00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:49,319 Speaker 1: Biden will do the best against Trump that he could 983 00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:51,960 Speaker 1: do against anybody. In other words, if you put DeSantis 984 00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:54,400 Speaker 1: against Biden, I think DeSantis is a big favorite. You 985 00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,800 Speaker 1: put fill in the blank with generic Republican versus Biden, 986 00:47:57,920 --> 00:47:59,839 Speaker 1: I think the generic Republican is going to do better. 987 00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,960 Speaker 1: I think Trump is the most beatable of the Republicans. 988 00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:05,600 Speaker 1: I'm not doubting these numbers at the moment, but I 989 00:48:05,680 --> 00:48:07,560 Speaker 1: think that I don't think that can hold. I don't 990 00:48:07,560 --> 00:48:09,279 Speaker 1: think these numbers will hold. I agree with you that 991 00:48:09,360 --> 00:48:13,640 Speaker 1: Trump is the most beatable, probably of the Republicans. But 992 00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:19,680 Speaker 1: I also don't underestimate him Trump, y, I am, I'm 993 00:48:19,719 --> 00:48:23,440 Speaker 1: doing that. I'm underestimating You've always underrested. Wait, that is 994 00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:25,359 Speaker 1: I have to correct the record. That is not true. 995 00:48:27,840 --> 00:48:31,200 Speaker 1: Correct Marshall won sack one sec In recent times, Yes, 996 00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,320 Speaker 1: because people need to remember. I was one of the 997 00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:38,040 Speaker 1: first people saying Trump can win the whole presidency. And 998 00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:40,080 Speaker 1: I was one of the first people saying, especially when 999 00:48:40,120 --> 00:48:42,320 Speaker 1: we realized it was Hillary versus Trump, I said Donald 1000 00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:44,279 Speaker 1: Trump is the favorite because he's going to pounce on 1001 00:48:44,360 --> 00:48:47,640 Speaker 1: Hillary for all of her weaknesses. So early on I 1002 00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:49,759 Speaker 1: called a lot about the Trump era that a lot 1003 00:48:49,800 --> 00:48:54,520 Speaker 1: of people missed, and the conventional wisdom became like teflandn, teflandn, teflandon. 1004 00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:56,920 Speaker 1: And again, I think I'm a little bit ahead here 1005 00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:59,239 Speaker 1: because I think the era of Teflandon is largely over. That, 1006 00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:01,000 Speaker 1: to be fair, has changed a little bit in recent days. 1007 00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:02,960 Speaker 1: I thought the Santas was a solid favorite. Now I 1008 00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:05,440 Speaker 1: do think Trump is a favorite in the Republican primary. 1009 00:49:05,640 --> 00:49:08,719 Speaker 1: But I'm just saying that the conventional wisdom is still 1010 00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:11,400 Speaker 1: in people's heads of oh, he's unbeatable stephlond On, and 1011 00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:13,160 Speaker 1: I think now it's the opposite. I think he's the 1012 00:49:13,239 --> 00:49:15,920 Speaker 1: most beatable, he's the most fringe. He's over on truth 1013 00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:21,800 Speaker 1: social talking about terminating the Constitution. That doesn't matter. That 1014 00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:23,800 Speaker 1: was hilarious. I want to talking about that was actually 1015 00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:26,879 Speaker 1: that was really cool. Go ahead, Marshall, let's go. Let's 1016 00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:28,759 Speaker 1: actually go there for a second. I'm not sure I 1017 00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:30,640 Speaker 1: believe this, but I'm just going to respond to what's 1018 00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:33,760 Speaker 1: being said here. Why shouldn't I think there's more danger 1019 00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:37,120 Speaker 1: of overestimating Trump and I underestimating Trump. Like the story 1020 00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:41,200 Speaker 1: of Donald Trump, with the exception of the you know, 1021 00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:45,040 Speaker 1: the Republican primary twenty fifty, twenty sixteen and November twenty sixteen, 1022 00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:47,680 Speaker 1: is the story of disaster. It's him deciding that he's 1023 00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:50,160 Speaker 1: going to pass a tax cut as his first act. 1024 00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:52,720 Speaker 1: It's decided to do the Obamacare thing, and then pissing 1025 00:49:52,760 --> 00:49:54,800 Speaker 1: off John McCain. So that goes down in flames. The 1026 00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:57,480 Speaker 1: midterms are a disaster, The twenty twenty election is a disaster, 1027 00:49:57,760 --> 00:49:59,960 Speaker 1: and he selects the worst candidates in twenty twenty two. 1028 00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:03,880 Speaker 1: So what's the case for thinking, actually he's got something 1029 00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:05,959 Speaker 1: in you know, his back pocket. He hasn't had something 1030 00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:10,480 Speaker 1: in his back pocket since twenty sixteen. That's done. Marshall spon. 1031 00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:13,720 Speaker 1: Let me let me say Marshall spitten. Though this dude 1032 00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:18,000 Speaker 1: did such an abysmal job during COVID that people were 1033 00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:22,080 Speaker 1: literally dying because of his lack of leadership, and he's 1034 00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:25,600 Speaker 1: still almost won butty thousand most but he didn't almost one, 1035 00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:28,160 Speaker 1: but he didn't, So you can't just like write him 1036 00:50:28,239 --> 00:50:30,680 Speaker 1: off when it was like forty thousand votes. Go in 1037 00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:33,960 Speaker 1: a different direction and he's still president of the United States. 1038 00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:37,120 Speaker 1: I agree, he's what I think DeSantis would be a 1039 00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:39,840 Speaker 1: stronger candidate. I think any normal Republican would be a 1040 00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:42,200 Speaker 1: stronger candidate. But I'm not going to go out there 1041 00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:44,520 Speaker 1: and say, like, there's no boy, Joe Biden could lose 1042 00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:46,600 Speaker 1: to this guy, because I think Joe Biden definitely could 1043 00:50:46,680 --> 00:50:48,640 Speaker 1: lose to this one. Yeah, And I think that's where 1044 00:50:48,680 --> 00:50:50,880 Speaker 1: I am and more. What I think I'm responding to 1045 00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:53,239 Speaker 1: is the idea of like, look, after twenty twenty two, 1046 00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:56,360 Speaker 1: he's done, he's dead, he's got no power, And there 1047 00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:58,280 Speaker 1: is quite a bit of this. Maybe it's too online, 1048 00:50:58,320 --> 00:51:01,080 Speaker 1: and I'm guilty of just internal it but I see, 1049 00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:04,879 Speaker 1: and especially in the days right after twenty twenty two, 1050 00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:07,560 Speaker 1: a lot of people were willing to say we're moving on, 1051 00:51:08,320 --> 00:51:11,239 Speaker 1: it's done. And guess what, guys, Ron de Santis has 1052 00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:14,680 Speaker 1: not announced her president so far. Only Nicky Haley is 1053 00:51:14,760 --> 00:51:17,000 Speaker 1: the one who's signaling that she's gonna do it. She'd 1054 00:51:17,040 --> 00:51:19,319 Speaker 1: we all know that she doesn't have a chance in hell. 1055 00:51:19,680 --> 00:51:23,359 Speaker 1: Mike Pompeo, who is as pathetic as Nicki Haley as 1056 00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:28,680 Speaker 1: a candidate, is also not announcing for president. Many Asa Hutchinson, 1057 00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:31,600 Speaker 1: the guy who was talking against him on CNN, where's 1058 00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:34,400 Speaker 1: his super pack? So look, he's still got a lot 1059 00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:41,319 Speaker 1: of power. How about this one, Larry Hogan, Yeah, never Trump, dude, right, 1060 00:51:41,520 --> 00:51:43,719 Speaker 1: I mean he's been like very anti Trump for a 1061 00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,279 Speaker 1: while now. They asked him if he would back the 1062 00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:49,359 Speaker 1: Republican nominee even if it was Trump, and he was like, yes, yes, 1063 00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:52,319 Speaker 1: whereas Trump isn't there, Like, I don't know, we'll see, 1064 00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:54,560 Speaker 1: we'll see if I back the Republican nominee. Maybe here's 1065 00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:56,560 Speaker 1: a better way of putting it, Like at the end 1066 00:51:56,560 --> 00:51:58,919 Speaker 1: of the day, anybody and actually remember saying this whenever 1067 00:51:58,960 --> 00:52:00,800 Speaker 1: Trump was on the ballot, But he was like, nobody, 1068 00:52:00,920 --> 00:52:03,600 Speaker 1: he can't win. I said, look, sometimes if it's fifty 1069 00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:05,920 Speaker 1: to fifty, like if your name is on the ballot 1070 00:52:05,960 --> 00:52:10,160 Speaker 1: as a presidential nominee, you absolutely can win the American presidency. 1071 00:52:10,520 --> 00:52:13,320 Speaker 1: And so that's where that's when I say not underresting 1072 00:52:13,400 --> 00:52:15,200 Speaker 1: in him. I do. I think it is more likely 1073 00:52:15,280 --> 00:52:17,200 Speaker 1: than not. Honestly, I don't know. I mean I look 1074 00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:19,480 Speaker 1: at a poll like this, and again I'm just taking back, 1075 00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:22,759 Speaker 1: which is, yeah, look stop the steal. That was dumb. 1076 00:52:23,120 --> 00:52:25,479 Speaker 1: And here's the other thing. You have you heard about 1077 00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:27,320 Speaker 1: it from Trump since you might have heard about it 1078 00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:30,000 Speaker 1: on truth Social. Who the hell knows what's going on 1079 00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:32,200 Speaker 1: on truth Social. So I will I'll just say this, 1080 00:52:33,840 --> 00:52:37,319 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, the debate is electability, yes, right, 1081 00:52:37,600 --> 00:52:41,000 Speaker 1: And I think Marshall and I maybe we agree on this. Marshall, 1082 00:52:41,000 --> 00:52:43,840 Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong. I think that after losing 1083 00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:46,959 Speaker 1: three elections in a row twenty eighteen, twenty twenty, twenty 1084 00:52:47,000 --> 00:52:51,239 Speaker 1: twenty two, the Republicans, even the base Republicans, some of 1085 00:52:51,280 --> 00:52:54,920 Speaker 1: the base Republicans might go, you know what, maybe electability 1086 00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:57,640 Speaker 1: actually does matter a little bit, and maybe Republican voters 1087 00:52:57,640 --> 00:52:59,759 Speaker 1: will start acting a little more like Democratic voters were 1088 00:53:00,040 --> 00:53:01,959 Speaker 1: crats seem to put that like first and foremost above 1089 00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:05,040 Speaker 1: everybody else. Desperately wish that were to be true. Marshall, 1090 00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:08,879 Speaker 1: You and I have talked about this. There is zero 1091 00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:12,320 Speaker 1: evidence that these people care about electability. See I disagree, 1092 00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:16,719 Speaker 1: but especially to try people, I'll I'll come in and 1093 00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:19,520 Speaker 1: disagree here. So like, this is where there's especially in 1094 00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:22,160 Speaker 1: the breaking point cinematic universe, there's a lot of discussion 1095 00:53:22,200 --> 00:53:25,439 Speaker 1: about how, oh the two parties are the same my body, body, body, 1096 00:53:25,440 --> 00:53:28,120 Speaker 1: bond neck. Obviously there's critiques you can make there, But 1097 00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:31,200 Speaker 1: a way the two parties are desperately different from each 1098 00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:34,520 Speaker 1: other in a way that severely has hurt Republicans basically 1099 00:53:34,600 --> 00:53:38,760 Speaker 1: from twenty eighteen onwards is Democratic Party voters they basically 1100 00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:43,040 Speaker 1: just say electability. They're not thinking, Okay, what's the coolest policy. 1101 00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:45,600 Speaker 1: They're not thinking, oh, like, is this quite the guy 1102 00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:47,680 Speaker 1: who I like? It's just like, look, I just want 1103 00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:50,399 Speaker 1: to go across the finish line in November, and that's 1104 00:53:50,560 --> 00:53:53,759 Speaker 1: just it. No evidence that a majority of Republican voters 1105 00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:56,200 Speaker 1: think the same way, because once again a Republican voters 1106 00:53:56,200 --> 00:53:58,319 Speaker 1: thought the same way, for good or for ill Ron 1107 00:53:58,360 --> 00:54:00,200 Speaker 1: just status, we would be doing the cakewalk right now. 1108 00:54:00,800 --> 00:54:03,680 Speaker 1: Trump would have been shut out everyone for example, like 1109 00:54:03,840 --> 00:54:07,759 Speaker 1: Nikki Haley, Mike Pompeo, as a Hutchinson, Larry Hogan, all 1110 00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:10,800 Speaker 1: these guys would have already endorsed, you know, Ron de 1111 00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:14,160 Speaker 1: Santa's because it he that overwhelming in his favor. If 1112 00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:18,640 Speaker 1: a Democrat performed the way Trump performed, the notion that 1113 00:54:18,680 --> 00:54:20,840 Speaker 1: he could come back and run for office again just 1114 00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:23,160 Speaker 1: not on the table at all. Whatsoever. There's a reason 1115 00:54:23,200 --> 00:54:25,799 Speaker 1: why Jimmy Carter never came back. There's a reason why, 1116 00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:29,600 Speaker 1: you know, Al Gore didn't make a comeback, John Carrey, etcetera, etcetera, 1117 00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:31,960 Speaker 1: et cetera. I guess with the exception of but I 1118 00:54:31,960 --> 00:54:34,400 Speaker 1: guess Hillary lost the primary and she didn't lose the general. 1119 00:54:34,560 --> 00:54:39,359 Speaker 1: The Democratic Party actually severely punishes politicians you can't win. Now, 1120 00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:40,880 Speaker 1: maybe that's a good thing, and that's a bad thing. 1121 00:54:40,920 --> 00:54:42,279 Speaker 1: Maybe it means that the party is going to be 1122 00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:45,800 Speaker 1: more like quote unquote corporate centrist and not really like 1123 00:54:46,239 --> 00:54:48,120 Speaker 1: push the needle and go more to the left and 1124 00:54:48,200 --> 00:54:50,960 Speaker 1: do something innovative. But that's a successful way of winning 1125 00:54:50,960 --> 00:54:53,360 Speaker 1: the popular vote. In seven of the last eight elections. 1126 00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:57,520 Speaker 1: So my response to that is, there were many polls 1127 00:54:57,640 --> 00:55:00,120 Speaker 1: in the wake of the twenty twenty two election had 1128 00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:03,799 Speaker 1: Desant to sell double digits. Even today, there are still 1129 00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:07,200 Speaker 1: polls at the state level certain states where DeSantis is 1130 00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:10,800 Speaker 1: beating Trump in those states. So my point is not 1131 00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:14,200 Speaker 1: to say Republicans definitely will prioritize electability this time around. 1132 00:55:14,480 --> 00:55:17,360 Speaker 1: My point is let's have a little humility and realize 1133 00:55:17,880 --> 00:55:20,279 Speaker 1: they might they might actually go. You know what, we 1134 00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:22,840 Speaker 1: got to calm down a little bit with this psychotic 1135 00:55:22,920 --> 00:55:25,640 Speaker 1: guy who lost US three elections in a row. But 1136 00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:28,640 Speaker 1: you know the reason why you ended up with so 1137 00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:32,640 Speaker 1: many fringe candidates who ran, you know, as Republicans and 1138 00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:34,879 Speaker 1: who actually got the nomination in a lot of key 1139 00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:38,520 Speaker 1: states and key races, etc. It really isn't so much 1140 00:55:38,560 --> 00:55:41,560 Speaker 1: about Trump endorsed them. It's about because that was what 1141 00:55:41,760 --> 00:55:44,319 Speaker 1: the Republican base was looking for. I mean, he Trump 1142 00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:48,040 Speaker 1: successfully made stop the steal, and where you stood on 1143 00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:51,160 Speaker 1: that issue like the most important litmus test in the 1144 00:55:51,239 --> 00:55:54,279 Speaker 1: Republican Party. You were with him or you were against him. 1145 00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:56,440 Speaker 1: You were either a sellout or you were you know, 1146 00:55:56,560 --> 00:55:58,560 Speaker 1: in a cock and a rhino, or you were like 1147 00:55:58,680 --> 00:56:00,520 Speaker 1: a true believer and you were in to say the 1148 00:56:00,560 --> 00:56:04,319 Speaker 1: truth unstop this deal. And I also don't really see 1149 00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:07,680 Speaker 1: any signs that that has particularly. Okay, don't don't deny though, 1150 00:56:07,719 --> 00:56:10,200 Speaker 1: that there is a Republican civil war going on at 1151 00:56:10,200 --> 00:56:13,719 Speaker 1: the grassroots level right now. And absolutely it's happening. You 1152 00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:16,680 Speaker 1: have Ben Shapiro and Candice Owens and those types versus 1153 00:56:16,680 --> 00:56:18,840 Speaker 1: Stephen Krafft. I would just peep that that even matters 1154 00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:21,279 Speaker 1: at all, But go ahead, Well, I'm just saying there's 1155 00:56:21,280 --> 00:56:23,279 Speaker 1: an actual split, there's a fight, and it's the same 1156 00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:24,879 Speaker 1: thing as people and Trump people. It's not like there's 1157 00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:27,080 Speaker 1: no fight in Trump already has this. It's a case absolutely, 1158 00:56:27,080 --> 00:56:29,239 Speaker 1: go ahead, Marshall. Well, what's interesting because I think you 1159 00:56:29,280 --> 00:56:30,960 Speaker 1: and I agree on this. I think I know where 1160 00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:34,319 Speaker 1: you're going. There's not a grassroots fight, but there really 1161 00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:39,920 Speaker 1: is an elite media, elite organizations. It's kind of like 1162 00:56:40,040 --> 00:56:42,120 Speaker 1: the political I mean, political parties aren't as powerful as 1163 00:56:42,120 --> 00:56:43,799 Speaker 1: they used to be in terms of like who really 1164 00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:46,240 Speaker 1: like who's even in charge of the RNC and the DNC, 1165 00:56:46,400 --> 00:56:48,960 Speaker 1: No one really knows anymore. But like what's happened is 1166 00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:52,760 Speaker 1: those parties have like separated into media organizations and nonprofits 1167 00:56:52,960 --> 00:56:54,799 Speaker 1: and thinkings, all these things used to be done by 1168 00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:57,440 Speaker 1: the parties themselves. That is where the fight's going on 1169 00:56:57,600 --> 00:56:59,560 Speaker 1: right now. So that's where people should be looking. You're 1170 00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:00,960 Speaker 1: not going to be It's not like back in the 1171 00:57:01,320 --> 00:57:04,280 Speaker 1: you know, nineteen fifties where you know, JFK and LBJ 1172 00:57:04,400 --> 00:57:09,080 Speaker 1: are battling over like state delegations from Wisconsin and Wyoming 1173 00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:12,439 Speaker 1: because the you know, party precinct committee chairman really matters there. 1174 00:57:12,640 --> 00:57:16,600 Speaker 1: So I think it's the But this is where I think, 1175 00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:18,880 Speaker 1: this is why we're overestimating disantas and I see this 1176 00:57:18,960 --> 00:57:23,080 Speaker 1: more on the right side. The elite structures I think 1177 00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:27,080 Speaker 1: matter on the Democratic side, not in the conspiratorial sense, 1178 00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:30,440 Speaker 1: but like capturing elite structures is a way of signifying 1179 00:57:30,760 --> 00:57:34,880 Speaker 1: electability and normalcy. On the Republican side, it doesn't really 1180 00:57:35,000 --> 00:57:38,040 Speaker 1: matter if DC likes you, if anything, that's probably a 1181 00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:40,760 Speaker 1: bad thing. I'm just from a pure political perspective. So 1182 00:57:40,840 --> 00:57:43,000 Speaker 1: that's a real difference between the two parties. Two. Yeah, 1183 00:57:43,000 --> 00:57:45,040 Speaker 1: I'm jealous of that. So there is some truth to that, 1184 00:57:45,160 --> 00:57:46,760 Speaker 1: and I'm very jealous of that. I have an update 1185 00:57:46,880 --> 00:57:50,240 Speaker 1: Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, who will be leaving the Biden 1186 00:57:50,280 --> 00:57:53,800 Speaker 1: administration to go and work for what is an airline union, 1187 00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:59,080 Speaker 1: the NHL, the NHL Players Association. That's right, the NHL 1188 00:57:59,160 --> 00:58:03,000 Speaker 1: Players Association. He is officially the designated survivor tonight, So 1189 00:58:03,120 --> 00:58:08,520 Speaker 1: congratulations to the Labor Secretary. Also for a George Santos update, 1190 00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:12,320 Speaker 1: there appears to have been an altercation between Mitt Romney 1191 00:58:12,360 --> 00:58:17,640 Speaker 1: and George Santos on the floor. I mean like Romney 1192 00:58:17,680 --> 00:58:21,040 Speaker 1: said something to him, uh, then he like looked away 1193 00:58:21,080 --> 00:58:22,920 Speaker 1: from him. Here, I'll play it for you, guys. Do 1194 00:58:23,080 --> 00:58:28,040 Speaker 1: some like celebrity boxing thing. I don't, didn't he Yeah, okay, 1195 00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:30,720 Speaker 1: here's what you can see. Romney says something to I 1196 00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:32,400 Speaker 1: wish we had this for you guys. I'm very sorry. 1197 00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:34,600 Speaker 1: But what you're watching is that Santos is pissed off 1198 00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:36,960 Speaker 1: and he's kind of like saying something back at him. 1199 00:58:37,040 --> 00:58:41,040 Speaker 1: So if I had to guess what he happened is 1200 00:58:41,160 --> 00:58:43,200 Speaker 1: he was like, you're a disgrace. Don't stand in the 1201 00:58:43,240 --> 00:58:47,720 Speaker 1: center issle. He might have said something though to that 1202 00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:52,680 Speaker 1: effect that wouldn't actually be a bad thing apparently. Yeah. 1203 00:58:52,760 --> 00:58:56,840 Speaker 1: So anyway, everybody on the everybody on the floor right 1204 00:58:56,920 --> 00:58:58,920 Speaker 1: now is making fun of George Santos want to shout 1205 00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:00,960 Speaker 1: out to the super chat right now saying I just 1206 00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:02,600 Speaker 1: want to say I appreciate you was able to get 1207 00:59:02,640 --> 00:59:04,800 Speaker 1: my twin brother to have more open mind by watching 1208 00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:06,600 Speaker 1: you could give your opinion on the future of the 1209 00:59:06,760 --> 00:59:09,680 Speaker 1: used car market, please and what politicians could do. I'll 1210 00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:11,960 Speaker 1: tell you what, sir, for the used car market. Keep 1211 00:59:12,000 --> 00:59:13,560 Speaker 1: watching the show and we will continue. I know that 1212 00:59:13,640 --> 00:59:15,400 Speaker 1: you have a high level of interest in that. And 1213 00:59:15,440 --> 00:59:19,160 Speaker 1: also thank you very much to the other superchats Marshall 1214 00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:21,840 Speaker 1: which said that you look like Forrest Whittaker. I enjoyed 1215 00:59:22,000 --> 00:59:25,520 Speaker 1: Will Black celebrity one of these people. It's just like, 1216 00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:30,560 Speaker 1: you know, just what's the most common something new, the 1217 00:59:30,640 --> 00:59:34,280 Speaker 1: most two. So the most common one is like Charlie 1218 00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:37,200 Speaker 1: from the West Wing. Oh right, gosh, if you're watching 1219 00:59:38,280 --> 00:59:41,200 Speaker 1: psych those were the those are the young day ones. 1220 00:59:41,560 --> 00:59:46,240 Speaker 1: So I want to please Sean di Stefano super Chat here. 1221 00:59:46,520 --> 00:59:49,280 Speaker 1: We give the politicians their jobs. We deserve the same 1222 00:59:49,320 --> 00:59:52,320 Speaker 1: healthcare they have. Republicans say they are pro life, so 1223 00:59:52,480 --> 00:59:55,720 Speaker 1: give everyone health care. Ah okay, agree, not a particularly 1224 00:59:55,760 --> 00:59:58,640 Speaker 1: original slogan. Given everybody health care, we'll go with it. 1225 00:59:58,720 --> 01:00:02,800 Speaker 1: Support that I'm able to entice saga, super chat person. 1226 01:00:02,880 --> 01:00:06,480 Speaker 1: You failed you were this close. I'm right, not nineteen 1227 01:00:06,560 --> 01:00:10,160 Speaker 1: nineties level dunks. But look, it's all right. We'll take 1228 01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:13,960 Speaker 1: it here over at breaking points before we go over 1229 01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:16,560 Speaker 1: to I think he'll be coming in here shortly. We 1230 01:00:16,640 --> 01:00:20,920 Speaker 1: may have to so we oh, yeah, we're getting to 1231 01:00:20,920 --> 01:00:24,040 Speaker 1: stand by from it's just a transparency. They're going to 1232 01:00:24,080 --> 01:00:27,200 Speaker 1: tell us whenever the president is walking in. You've got 1233 01:00:27,240 --> 01:00:30,360 Speaker 1: the whole iconic like, what is it, mister speaker? I 1234 01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:33,560 Speaker 1: guess it would be mister speaker again. Uh, you know, 1235 01:00:33,720 --> 01:00:36,280 Speaker 1: the President of the United States and usually takes on 1236 01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:39,439 Speaker 1: average between like two to seven minutes to walk down 1237 01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:41,640 Speaker 1: the aisle. He like shakes a bunch of hands. Is 1238 01:00:41,680 --> 01:00:45,000 Speaker 1: the cameras we'll track him. We'll break in sometime around that. 1239 01:00:45,160 --> 01:00:47,880 Speaker 1: It is officially nine pm here on the East Coast, 1240 01:00:48,040 --> 01:00:51,400 Speaker 1: So that is officially when the president is scheduled to talk. 1241 01:00:51,520 --> 01:00:53,360 Speaker 1: For those who are wondering why it's nine pm and 1242 01:00:53,360 --> 01:00:55,600 Speaker 1: why it's past my bedtime while we're even doing this, 1243 01:00:55,920 --> 01:00:59,320 Speaker 1: that's because nine PM is the traditionals. Nine PM is 1244 01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:03,000 Speaker 1: the traditional, obviously primetime hour here in the United States. 1245 01:01:03,040 --> 01:01:05,760 Speaker 1: It's the most time in which eyeballs, or at least 1246 01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:08,960 Speaker 1: in the old times whenever people were watching linear TV 1247 01:01:09,320 --> 01:01:11,320 Speaker 1: are glued to the screen. Part of the reason why 1248 01:01:11,400 --> 01:01:13,520 Speaker 1: that they do it here at nine pm. Yes, and 1249 01:01:13,720 --> 01:01:16,240 Speaker 1: you can see right now, Oh, I see Pete talking 1250 01:01:16,280 --> 01:01:19,479 Speaker 1: to people, Joe Manchin, whatever. Anyway, they're all milling around talking, 1251 01:01:19,520 --> 01:01:22,160 Speaker 1: waiting for the President to come. But one thing I 1252 01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:24,440 Speaker 1: wanted to bring up before the speech, because this will 1253 01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:28,480 Speaker 1: undoubtedly be part of that. This is last year at 1254 01:01:28,680 --> 01:01:31,360 Speaker 1: the State of the Union. You know, this was right 1255 01:01:31,440 --> 01:01:34,960 Speaker 1: after Russia had invaded Ukraine. This was obviously incredibly important 1256 01:01:35,000 --> 01:01:37,840 Speaker 1: focus of the speech and it will continue to be, 1257 01:01:38,080 --> 01:01:41,240 Speaker 1: I'm sure an incredibly important focus of the speech. And 1258 01:01:41,480 --> 01:01:45,760 Speaker 1: one you know, critical political dividing line that is emerging 1259 01:01:46,240 --> 01:01:51,080 Speaker 1: is you have Trump really putting himself not just oppositional 1260 01:01:51,160 --> 01:01:53,680 Speaker 1: to Biden, but also to some of the other Republicans 1261 01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:56,640 Speaker 1: who might contest him in the primary in terms of saying, 1262 01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:58,800 Speaker 1: you know, we said no tanks, I would make a 1263 01:01:58,840 --> 01:02:01,439 Speaker 1: deal on the first day of my residency, et cetera, 1264 01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:04,920 Speaker 1: et cetera. So you have him trying to seize Marshall 1265 01:02:05,000 --> 01:02:07,880 Speaker 1: on the Ukraine War as a sort of key dividing 1266 01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:10,360 Speaker 1: line for him within the Republican primary, but also for 1267 01:02:10,560 --> 01:02:13,600 Speaker 1: a potential general election. Yeah. I think the interesting thing 1268 01:02:13,640 --> 01:02:15,960 Speaker 1: about the Yeah, it's kind of amazing we made it 1269 01:02:16,160 --> 01:02:19,800 Speaker 1: almost an hour of bringing up Ukraine. Look, I think 1270 01:02:19,800 --> 01:02:23,240 Speaker 1: the Ukraine War matters in so obviously with the Ukraine 1271 01:02:23,280 --> 01:02:25,600 Speaker 1: War matters what we're talking in terms of party politics here, 1272 01:02:25,960 --> 01:02:31,760 Speaker 1: the Ukraine War is an important like within the Republican 1273 01:02:31,840 --> 01:02:34,720 Speaker 1: party primary fight. It just right now in terms of 1274 01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:36,280 Speaker 1: where things are right now is not could be a 1275 01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:39,240 Speaker 1: big defin in general election issue. This is one which 1276 01:02:39,320 --> 01:02:42,520 Speaker 1: we also saw in terms of the midterm results. The 1277 01:02:42,600 --> 01:02:45,480 Speaker 1: status quos things are, the status quos things are right 1278 01:02:45,520 --> 01:02:47,440 Speaker 1: now is not one where the twenty twenty four election 1279 01:02:48,000 --> 01:02:50,800 Speaker 1: is determined by what's happening in Ukraine. It is going 1280 01:02:50,840 --> 01:02:53,240 Speaker 1: to be an opportunity for Trump because when Trump's talking 1281 01:02:53,240 --> 01:02:55,520 Speaker 1: about the piece, he's not really fighting against Joe Biden 1282 01:02:55,720 --> 01:02:58,600 Speaker 1: as much as trying to signal subtly you're sort of 1283 01:02:58,680 --> 01:03:01,520 Speaker 1: seeing talk of the sagar. You've noticed this that Ron 1284 01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:04,720 Speaker 1: DeSantis is actually much more hawkish on foreign policy, and 1285 01:03:04,800 --> 01:03:06,640 Speaker 1: he's let on and you know, and you actually know 1286 01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:09,160 Speaker 1: this is almost certainly true because he doesn't talk about 1287 01:03:09,200 --> 01:03:14,080 Speaker 1: it DeSantis is basically almost everything. We could all know 1288 01:03:14,200 --> 01:03:18,960 Speaker 1: Sasanta's positions on basically everything except for kind of China 1289 01:03:19,240 --> 01:03:22,160 Speaker 1: beyond like the court, so like a separate from cultural issues, 1290 01:03:22,440 --> 01:03:24,800 Speaker 1: so the TikTok stuff. We actually don't know where he's 1291 01:03:24,840 --> 01:03:26,760 Speaker 1: at when it comes to like issues like Taiwan. We 1292 01:03:26,760 --> 01:03:28,280 Speaker 1: don't know where he's that when it comes to Ukraine, 1293 01:03:28,480 --> 01:03:31,320 Speaker 1: which is strong evidence he's actually much more to the 1294 01:03:31,400 --> 01:03:35,640 Speaker 1: more traditional Republican Party people. To back that up, Trump 1295 01:03:35,720 --> 01:03:39,400 Speaker 1: has retruthed at least one or two things, calling DeSantis 1296 01:03:39,480 --> 01:03:43,880 Speaker 1: a globalist on Ukraine. He has had taken some potshots 1297 01:03:44,160 --> 01:03:46,360 Speaker 1: at him on there. I actually agree, which is one 1298 01:03:46,360 --> 01:03:48,160 Speaker 1: of the things that Trump. What I think Trump is 1299 01:03:48,200 --> 01:03:51,320 Speaker 1: fantastic at is saying the politically popular thing that nobody 1300 01:03:51,360 --> 01:03:53,440 Speaker 1: wants to say from a political correctness point of view. 1301 01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:56,040 Speaker 1: Right now, he literally is the only major national figure 1302 01:03:56,240 --> 01:03:58,640 Speaker 1: on the other side of Ukraine. Although look, let's be honest, 1303 01:03:58,680 --> 01:04:01,080 Speaker 1: he's been all over the place called for bombing the 1304 01:04:01,240 --> 01:04:05,200 Speaker 1: Chinese planes my personal favorite one that he's always had 1305 01:04:05,240 --> 01:04:07,800 Speaker 1: out there. What would he actually do in the event 1306 01:04:07,880 --> 01:04:09,320 Speaker 1: of all this, and should he get elected, I have 1307 01:04:09,440 --> 01:04:12,080 Speaker 1: no idea. By the way, history suggested he would be yeah, 1308 01:04:12,440 --> 01:04:14,880 Speaker 1: well this is this is what's this what's interesting? They're like, 1309 01:04:15,120 --> 01:04:16,520 Speaker 1: I just want to push back up in new saying 1310 01:04:16,520 --> 01:04:19,400 Speaker 1: it's like it's like unclear whether it's the thing. Yeah, 1311 01:04:19,400 --> 01:04:22,320 Speaker 1: it's actually not, it's not right now right now, like 1312 01:04:22,640 --> 01:04:24,760 Speaker 1: it's it's good. Well, no, I don't think that's true. 1313 01:04:24,800 --> 01:04:29,240 Speaker 1: It's exactly fifty to fifty. But the point is, I 1314 01:04:29,280 --> 01:04:31,320 Speaker 1: think it's kind of so. I guess thats what we're 1315 01:04:31,320 --> 01:04:34,720 Speaker 1: trying to say here because from my perspective, we are 1316 01:04:34,720 --> 01:04:37,360 Speaker 1: in the Ukrainians. We don't put American boots in the ground. 1317 01:04:37,440 --> 01:04:40,600 Speaker 1: That's the majority position right now. That's actually in terms 1318 01:04:40,640 --> 01:04:42,480 Speaker 1: of the way the debate is being framed, that's not 1319 01:04:42,680 --> 01:04:44,480 Speaker 1: really how it's looking right now. In terms of the 1320 01:04:44,560 --> 01:04:48,760 Speaker 1: Act's fifty polling, what's polling, it's for fifty to fifty 1321 01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:51,040 Speaker 1: for all continual aid to Ukraine from here on out. 1322 01:04:51,120 --> 01:04:55,360 Speaker 1: So that's not very popular, but that's not But it's 1323 01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:58,240 Speaker 1: the key thing though, is soccer. That's not the debate anymore. 1324 01:04:58,320 --> 01:05:00,680 Speaker 1: Like the Republican parties are like was the House like, 1325 01:05:00,720 --> 01:05:04,280 Speaker 1: you're not going to see massive, massive, massive packages because 1326 01:05:04,640 --> 01:05:05,840 Speaker 1: we got to we got to pull out of this 1327 01:05:05,880 --> 01:05:08,240 Speaker 1: because the President is actually coming in now. So let's 1328 01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:11,400 Speaker 1: go ahead, guys, and we'll throw here to the president. 1329 01:05:11,760 --> 01:05:20,800 Speaker 1: We'll watch this. We're going to active all right. You have, 1330 01:05:20,920 --> 01:05:23,640 Speaker 1: of course been listening to the President of the United 1331 01:05:23,680 --> 01:05:26,720 Speaker 1: States delivering his State of the Union, leaning heavily into 1332 01:05:26,880 --> 01:05:30,200 Speaker 1: an economic message front and center at the top. But 1333 01:05:30,400 --> 01:05:32,320 Speaker 1: I think probably the thing a lot of people will 1334 01:05:32,360 --> 01:05:35,960 Speaker 1: pay the most attention to is how raucous the Republicans were. 1335 01:05:36,080 --> 01:05:39,600 Speaker 1: You had Marjorie Taylor Green yelling you're a liar. Lots 1336 01:05:39,640 --> 01:05:43,400 Speaker 1: of especially over his comments about Social Security and Medicare. 1337 01:05:43,480 --> 01:05:45,640 Speaker 1: There's a big uproar. They were yelling at him about 1338 01:05:45,640 --> 01:05:48,520 Speaker 1: the border and other things. Kyle, let me go to 1339 01:05:48,600 --> 01:05:50,880 Speaker 1: you first of all, what were your sort of big 1340 01:05:51,200 --> 01:05:55,240 Speaker 1: takeaways bigees. Well, I like the fact that most of 1341 01:05:55,280 --> 01:05:57,840 Speaker 1: the speech was economic, and the early part was economic. 1342 01:05:57,920 --> 01:06:00,240 Speaker 1: I feel like that, you know, if you lean into that, 1343 01:06:00,560 --> 01:06:03,880 Speaker 1: that's positive and that'll get a good reaction, I think. 1344 01:06:04,760 --> 01:06:07,960 Speaker 1: But obviously, yeah, the bigger story is how I'll go 1345 01:06:08,040 --> 01:06:11,040 Speaker 1: with the word annoying, How annoying the room was, And 1346 01:06:11,200 --> 01:06:12,920 Speaker 1: I'm very curious to throw it to you, guys. I 1347 01:06:12,960 --> 01:06:14,640 Speaker 1: don't know if it's just because I'm getting old. I 1348 01:06:14,680 --> 01:06:16,120 Speaker 1: don't know if it's because I'm tired and it's past 1349 01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:19,320 Speaker 1: my bedtime. But every single time somebody chirped up, I 1350 01:06:19,440 --> 01:06:23,040 Speaker 1: was like, shut up, just wrap it up. I don't 1351 01:06:23,040 --> 01:06:25,960 Speaker 1: want to hear it. It's annoying. He's speaking. He's the president, 1352 01:06:25,960 --> 01:06:27,760 Speaker 1: even if he wasn't the president, if he was Bob 1353 01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:30,320 Speaker 1: from the PTA meeting. It's like, let Bob finish his thought. 1354 01:06:30,640 --> 01:06:32,280 Speaker 1: Because they're all just trying to get a viral moment. 1355 01:06:32,320 --> 01:06:33,920 Speaker 1: They're all just trying to fundraise off it because of 1356 01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:36,880 Speaker 1: the Joe Wilson moment back when Obama was president and 1357 01:06:37,000 --> 01:06:40,000 Speaker 1: he screamed to you lie and they had massive fundraising numbers. 1358 01:06:40,040 --> 01:06:41,480 Speaker 1: It's like, I get it, I get it, I get it. 1359 01:06:41,520 --> 01:06:43,920 Speaker 1: You're all virtue signaling. You're all trying to get you know, 1360 01:06:44,160 --> 01:06:47,040 Speaker 1: the spotlight on you. But it's it's dumb and it's annoying. 1361 01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:49,160 Speaker 1: Do you guys agree with me? I'm not so sure. 1362 01:06:49,240 --> 01:06:52,479 Speaker 1: Here's the thing. In terms of my objective feelings about 1363 01:06:52,600 --> 01:06:54,800 Speaker 1: or in terms of my personal feelings about it, I'm indifferent. 1364 01:06:54,880 --> 01:06:56,640 Speaker 1: If anything, I actually do kind of enjoy it, just 1365 01:06:56,640 --> 01:06:59,240 Speaker 1: because I like the idea of a raucous house of 1366 01:06:59,320 --> 01:07:02,120 Speaker 1: representatives that said, look, if it's all fake and it's 1367 01:07:02,160 --> 01:07:04,280 Speaker 1: all a stage, then these people are gonna have to 1368 01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:06,840 Speaker 1: play their part. Right. You pointed to that Marjorie knows 1369 01:07:06,920 --> 01:07:09,720 Speaker 1: exactly what she's doing. She's absolutely gonna raise a lot 1370 01:07:09,760 --> 01:07:11,520 Speaker 1: of money. But I would even step back. I don't 1371 01:07:11,520 --> 01:07:13,760 Speaker 1: think that was the biggest story that's going to come 1372 01:07:13,760 --> 01:07:15,720 Speaker 1: out of that. It might be a twenty four hour 1373 01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:17,680 Speaker 1: thing and some people will be like, oh my god, 1374 01:07:17,800 --> 01:07:22,080 Speaker 1: my norms. Guys. The biggest story the takeaway is whenever 1375 01:07:22,200 --> 01:07:25,160 Speaker 1: he would confronting them directly on Medicare and Social Security. 1376 01:07:25,240 --> 01:07:27,439 Speaker 1: I mean in terms of the take like, in terms 1377 01:07:27,480 --> 01:07:29,720 Speaker 1: of what we will be talking about probably for weeks now. 1378 01:07:30,080 --> 01:07:32,320 Speaker 1: That moment is going to get replayed over and over 1379 01:07:32,360 --> 01:07:34,720 Speaker 1: again when he's like, okay, are we all agreed here? 1380 01:07:34,960 --> 01:07:36,560 Speaker 1: Oh so you agree with me, so it's not going 1381 01:07:36,600 --> 01:07:38,760 Speaker 1: to be a problem. Stand up if you agree with me. 1382 01:07:39,080 --> 01:07:41,520 Speaker 1: That was actually Look, I'll give the man credit. That 1383 01:07:41,680 --> 01:07:44,080 Speaker 1: was the best absolute part of the speech. It was 1384 01:07:44,120 --> 01:07:46,000 Speaker 1: the only part where he went off script and it 1385 01:07:46,080 --> 01:07:48,320 Speaker 1: did actually work for him. Are there were a couple 1386 01:07:48,880 --> 01:07:51,200 Speaker 1: what did he say? Name a man who would trade 1387 01:07:51,240 --> 01:07:55,400 Speaker 1: places with Jijinping. I still do not know exactly what 1388 01:07:55,600 --> 01:08:00,040 Speaker 1: that means. All right, So, like my meta takeaway, I 1389 01:08:00,120 --> 01:08:02,880 Speaker 1: was telling you guys this during the speech, vast majority 1390 01:08:02,920 --> 01:08:04,800 Speaker 1: of people stop watching the State of the Union after 1391 01:08:04,800 --> 01:08:06,919 Speaker 1: about thirty to forty five minutes. Yeah, the first thirty 1392 01:08:07,240 --> 01:08:10,720 Speaker 1: forty five minutes was all an economic message. Most of 1393 01:08:10,760 --> 01:08:12,880 Speaker 1: it was made in America. I mean, look, not even 1394 01:08:12,920 --> 01:08:16,080 Speaker 1: President Obama ever gave a maide in America speech like that, 1395 01:08:16,200 --> 01:08:17,960 Speaker 1: And to me, that just shows me the way that 1396 01:08:18,040 --> 01:08:21,280 Speaker 1: Donald Trump really changed politics forever on made in America 1397 01:08:21,439 --> 01:08:25,200 Speaker 1: and on China. So those two issues, it's solidly in 1398 01:08:25,360 --> 01:08:28,520 Speaker 1: this State of the Union. No president even almost disagrees 1399 01:08:28,680 --> 01:08:30,800 Speaker 1: now at that point, So for the Medicare and the 1400 01:08:30,800 --> 01:08:33,360 Speaker 1: Social Security and then I thought overall it was an 1401 01:08:33,360 --> 01:08:36,360 Speaker 1: effective speech as far as biden ones goes. If I 1402 01:08:36,439 --> 01:08:39,479 Speaker 1: were him, you know, I'd be pretty happy with my performance. Marshall, 1403 01:08:39,520 --> 01:08:41,439 Speaker 1: I want to get your thoughts. I sort of feel 1404 01:08:41,600 --> 01:08:47,200 Speaker 1: like with the Republican interruptions, etc. Biden really led with 1405 01:08:47,360 --> 01:08:51,200 Speaker 1: this message of like bipartisanship and unity. He made a 1406 01:08:51,360 --> 01:08:55,320 Speaker 1: long show at the beginning of congratulations to Kevin McCarthy, 1407 01:08:55,439 --> 01:08:58,560 Speaker 1: Congratulations to Mitch McConnell, we're going to work together. We 1408 01:08:58,640 --> 01:09:01,320 Speaker 1: did work together in the past, so he wanted this 1409 01:09:01,520 --> 01:09:03,559 Speaker 1: message of like, I'm the guy who's here to work 1410 01:09:03,600 --> 01:09:06,439 Speaker 1: with anybody. We've gotten some things done together, et cetera. 1411 01:09:07,000 --> 01:09:10,000 Speaker 1: And so it certainly serves Marjorie Taylor, Greens and whoever 1412 01:09:10,080 --> 01:09:12,800 Speaker 1: else is interest to get their little viral moments for 1413 01:09:12,880 --> 01:09:16,000 Speaker 1: their Republican based fundraising. But I also do feel like 1414 01:09:16,120 --> 01:09:19,160 Speaker 1: that sort of plays into Biden's hands as well, when 1415 01:09:19,240 --> 01:09:21,640 Speaker 1: he's trying to portray himself as the grown up in 1416 01:09:21,720 --> 01:09:24,479 Speaker 1: the room and the one that's serious about actually reaching 1417 01:09:24,520 --> 01:09:27,360 Speaker 1: out and getting things done. Yeah, that's It's what we're 1418 01:09:27,520 --> 01:09:31,639 Speaker 1: talking about the start of the real, you know, live 1419 01:09:31,680 --> 01:09:34,439 Speaker 1: show here, which is that voters like hearing that you 1420 01:09:34,479 --> 01:09:36,840 Speaker 1: know you could you could Obviously, I think I think 1421 01:09:36,880 --> 01:09:40,680 Speaker 1: it's important to separate the like annoying DC version of like, oh, 1422 01:09:40,840 --> 01:09:43,280 Speaker 1: back in the eighties, everything was super Jaill and everyone 1423 01:09:43,400 --> 01:09:46,240 Speaker 1: was best friends, the Gipper and Tip O'Neal like that, 1424 01:09:46,600 --> 01:09:49,960 Speaker 1: you know, you know, the Joe Scarborough thing. But at 1425 01:09:50,000 --> 01:09:53,600 Speaker 1: a baseline level, the centerpiece of American politics right now 1426 01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:57,080 Speaker 1: is what like suburban moderate voters think and they want 1427 01:09:57,160 --> 01:10:02,360 Speaker 1: to hear that Marjorie Hyler Green's district may be interested 1428 01:10:02,560 --> 01:10:04,640 Speaker 1: in her doing that performance, but no one else is. 1429 01:10:05,000 --> 01:10:07,479 Speaker 1: And that's a real misjudgment that could be effective in 1430 01:10:07,520 --> 01:10:10,800 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. Yeah, exactly. I mean, look, let's step back. 1431 01:10:10,920 --> 01:10:12,760 Speaker 1: What did we say at the top, or at least 1432 01:10:13,080 --> 01:10:16,240 Speaker 1: for what I said, I said, the balance is economy. 1433 01:10:16,800 --> 01:10:19,439 Speaker 1: Lead yourself, try to gaslight a little bit about oh, 1434 01:10:19,520 --> 01:10:22,080 Speaker 1: everything's great, you know all of that. At the same time, 1435 01:10:22,200 --> 01:10:24,479 Speaker 1: you're like, I'm a bulwark again. So what did he 1436 01:10:24,600 --> 01:10:26,240 Speaker 1: lead with? He goes, here's all the things I've done, 1437 01:10:27,000 --> 01:10:31,360 Speaker 1: goes straight into the bulwark against Medicare, social Security, I 1438 01:10:31,600 --> 01:10:34,280 Speaker 1: will veto And what does the end on? He ends 1439 01:10:34,439 --> 01:10:37,160 Speaker 1: exactly on stop the steal. Now, look saying the pop 1440 01:10:37,200 --> 01:10:39,240 Speaker 1: Folosi attack at any to do anything to do with 1441 01:10:39,400 --> 01:10:43,559 Speaker 1: quote the big lie and not schizophrenia is ridiculous. However, 1442 01:10:44,320 --> 01:10:49,400 Speaker 1: politically savvy move, I think people say so right, Yeah, 1443 01:10:49,439 --> 01:10:51,120 Speaker 1: so it's like one of those where it wasn't you know, 1444 01:10:51,240 --> 01:10:54,719 Speaker 1: you tie those two things together and you know it's savvy. 1445 01:10:54,880 --> 01:10:57,560 Speaker 1: I think in that regard, you end on the democracy 1446 01:10:57,640 --> 01:10:59,920 Speaker 1: thing that really kept people there. So look, I think 1447 01:11:00,080 --> 01:11:01,760 Speaker 1: he hit all the notes, it clocked in it and 1448 01:11:02,160 --> 01:11:05,200 Speaker 1: around an hour fifteen minutes, as state of the unions go, 1449 01:11:05,360 --> 01:11:08,840 Speaker 1: that's pretty average. I mean overall, again, I just come 1450 01:11:08,920 --> 01:11:11,200 Speaker 1: back to him like effective job. I really think so. 1451 01:11:11,479 --> 01:11:15,720 Speaker 1: So one of the things I had, I jotted down 1452 01:11:15,720 --> 01:11:17,599 Speaker 1: a bunch of this stuff that I thought was most interesting. 1453 01:11:18,000 --> 01:11:20,120 Speaker 1: One of my favorite lines was he was talking about 1454 01:11:21,160 --> 01:11:24,599 Speaker 1: the fifteen percent minimum tax rate for corporations worth over 1455 01:11:24,600 --> 01:11:27,160 Speaker 1: a billion dollars and he says they have to pay 1456 01:11:27,200 --> 01:11:29,320 Speaker 1: a minimum fifteen percent and then he said like kind 1457 01:11:29,320 --> 01:11:31,880 Speaker 1: of casually and flippantly, God love them. Yeah, and that 1458 01:11:32,000 --> 01:11:34,360 Speaker 1: got a decent laugh, and you know, I was chuckling here. 1459 01:11:34,439 --> 01:11:37,080 Speaker 1: I thought that was a good line. I noticed early on. 1460 01:11:37,640 --> 01:11:39,639 Speaker 1: One of the very first lines was like we've created 1461 01:11:39,680 --> 01:11:42,320 Speaker 1: twelve million jobs. And then ah, everybody starts clapping, and 1462 01:11:42,439 --> 01:11:45,439 Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy sitting there like, yeah, I will not clap 1463 01:11:45,479 --> 01:11:47,160 Speaker 1: at twelve million new jobs. It's like, dude, this is 1464 01:11:47,240 --> 01:11:48,760 Speaker 1: one of the ones that it's like you have to 1465 01:11:48,840 --> 01:11:51,400 Speaker 1: do it just to look like you're saying and then 1466 01:11:51,520 --> 01:11:53,879 Speaker 1: like you were pointing out the Social Security and Medicare 1467 01:11:54,400 --> 01:11:57,519 Speaker 1: moment there. What I was getting really annoyed by is 1468 01:11:57,640 --> 01:12:01,080 Speaker 1: like just own it. It is a lot of the 1469 01:12:01,160 --> 01:12:04,559 Speaker 1: Republican's position too, that they want to cut it. They 1470 01:12:04,680 --> 01:12:07,240 Speaker 1: might soften the language to try to blunt the effect 1471 01:12:07,280 --> 01:12:09,360 Speaker 1: by saying no, we're just trying to reform it or 1472 01:12:09,479 --> 01:12:11,680 Speaker 1: save it, but functionally they want to cut it. And 1473 01:12:11,760 --> 01:12:13,160 Speaker 1: when he says that's what they want to do, and 1474 01:12:13,200 --> 01:12:16,680 Speaker 1: they're like boo boo boo, it strikes me as so disingenuous, 1475 01:12:16,800 --> 01:12:19,760 Speaker 1: like just say, yes, this is our position, and we 1476 01:12:19,800 --> 01:12:21,160 Speaker 1: would like to debate that on the merits, and we 1477 01:12:21,160 --> 01:12:23,160 Speaker 1: would like to defend the position of cutting sold security. 1478 01:12:23,240 --> 01:12:24,960 Speaker 1: They get so weasily about it, and that's what was 1479 01:12:25,040 --> 01:12:26,560 Speaker 1: driving me crazy. I was screaming about it here in 1480 01:12:26,600 --> 01:12:28,120 Speaker 1: the studio when we were watching it. So the thing 1481 01:12:28,200 --> 01:12:31,080 Speaker 1: that he's referring to specifically when he talks about like 1482 01:12:31,240 --> 01:12:35,400 Speaker 1: sunsetting these provisions was what Senator Rick Scott, who was 1483 01:12:35,600 --> 01:12:40,240 Speaker 1: in charge of the Republican senatorial right campaigns this time around, 1484 01:12:40,360 --> 01:12:43,240 Speaker 1: so not like an instant significant player, it was part 1485 01:12:43,320 --> 01:12:45,800 Speaker 1: of the plan that he put out. And this was 1486 01:12:46,040 --> 01:12:48,519 Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell was basically like, shut the f up, we 1487 01:12:49,120 --> 01:12:50,960 Speaker 1: don't want to talk about that. We're trying to run 1488 01:12:51,000 --> 01:12:53,240 Speaker 1: on nothing. Here and just like bash the mon inflation. 1489 01:12:53,840 --> 01:12:56,880 Speaker 1: So this is not without basis. And you've had other 1490 01:12:56,960 --> 01:13:00,759 Speaker 1: Republicans also talking about the dead ceiling, talking about cuts 1491 01:13:00,800 --> 01:13:03,960 Speaker 1: to entitlements. You have had some others who say, no, no, 1492 01:13:04,040 --> 01:13:06,160 Speaker 1: we don't want to do that. Donald Trump obviously said like, 1493 01:13:06,280 --> 01:13:09,240 Speaker 1: this is off the table. But what's sort of more 1494 01:13:09,360 --> 01:13:13,479 Speaker 1: interesting to me is I feel like in previous eras 1495 01:13:13,680 --> 01:13:17,200 Speaker 1: in the Mitt Romney Paul Ryan era, they were much 1496 01:13:17,240 --> 01:13:20,320 Speaker 1: more comfortable owning the fact that they really wanted to 1497 01:13:20,360 --> 01:13:22,760 Speaker 1: cut Social Security in Medicare. Like if Obama had said 1498 01:13:22,800 --> 01:13:24,360 Speaker 1: that at a State of the Union, they would have 1499 01:13:24,400 --> 01:13:26,560 Speaker 1: been like, yes, we do, and here's our plan, and 1500 01:13:26,640 --> 01:13:28,760 Speaker 1: here's Paul Ryan with the PowerPoint of how he's going 1501 01:13:28,800 --> 01:13:31,400 Speaker 1: to do it. And so I mean, this is another 1502 01:13:31,600 --> 01:13:33,920 Speaker 1: way that even though you still have a lot of 1503 01:13:33,960 --> 01:13:36,760 Speaker 1: the same ideology, even though many of them still are 1504 01:13:36,840 --> 01:13:39,719 Speaker 1: committed to it would like to cut Social Security and Medicare, 1505 01:13:39,760 --> 01:13:42,720 Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, the fact that they're offended that 1506 01:13:42,880 --> 01:13:45,760 Speaker 1: this is suggested about them, that they want to cut 1507 01:13:45,800 --> 01:13:49,760 Speaker 1: these programs represents a pretty remarkable shift in terms of 1508 01:13:49,880 --> 01:13:52,840 Speaker 1: the Republican Party and what they want to publicly put forward. 1509 01:13:52,920 --> 01:13:55,040 Speaker 1: What do you think of that, Marshall. Yeah, and that's 1510 01:13:55,040 --> 01:13:56,519 Speaker 1: a great way to put it in Crystal, I mean 1511 01:13:56,560 --> 01:14:01,120 Speaker 1: the core thing as you guys particularly, and this really 1512 01:14:01,200 --> 01:14:04,479 Speaker 1: reminds me of the defund the police debate in terms 1513 01:14:04,520 --> 01:14:07,120 Speaker 1: of like how you could identify our vulnerable area. So 1514 01:14:07,439 --> 01:14:09,920 Speaker 1: think of defund back in twenty twenty. There were some 1515 01:14:10,080 --> 01:14:12,599 Speaker 1: Democrats who were very defund. There are plenty of modern 1516 01:14:12,680 --> 01:14:16,000 Speaker 1: Democrats who weren't vulnerable. You can take the more extreme 1517 01:14:16,080 --> 01:14:18,840 Speaker 1: position as the party's trying to figure it out, and 1518 01:14:18,960 --> 01:14:22,120 Speaker 1: that's as an attack point. That's basically what's happening or 1519 01:14:22,200 --> 01:14:25,680 Speaker 1: social security Back in the two thousands, I think of 1520 01:14:25,720 --> 01:14:29,240 Speaker 1: when George W. Bush tried to reform slash cut, slash 1521 01:14:29,280 --> 01:14:32,160 Speaker 1: privatize social Security after one re election in two thousand 1522 01:14:32,160 --> 01:14:34,960 Speaker 1: and five. Like back then, the party consensus was that 1523 01:14:35,200 --> 01:14:37,800 Speaker 1: this is what we do. We fight against the new deal. 1524 01:14:37,840 --> 01:14:41,599 Speaker 1: We're fighting against the great society that's our party. After 1525 01:14:41,800 --> 01:14:45,519 Speaker 1: the social security privatization failed, after Paul Ryan flopped as 1526 01:14:45,520 --> 01:14:48,479 Speaker 1: a VP, and then after Trump then ran in favor 1527 01:14:48,560 --> 01:14:52,080 Speaker 1: of social security and in favor of Medicare Medicare also 1528 01:14:52,120 --> 01:14:54,680 Speaker 1: when need to add the failure of the repeal Oh Obamacare, 1529 01:14:54,880 --> 01:14:59,599 Speaker 1: Republicans genuinely don't know what to think. I think as 1530 01:14:59,640 --> 01:15:01,360 Speaker 1: you see. And the thing that's funny, Kyle, I get 1531 01:15:01,400 --> 01:15:03,519 Speaker 1: your point, need to have a fair debate, and I 1532 01:15:03,640 --> 01:15:06,120 Speaker 1: agree with you most of the time. But like JD. Vans, 1533 01:15:06,160 --> 01:15:09,160 Speaker 1: for example, Jad Dance like, actually wouldn't be in favor 1534 01:15:09,479 --> 01:15:12,120 Speaker 1: of cutting Social Security. He came out. I don't think 1535 01:15:12,160 --> 01:15:13,519 Speaker 1: he's the I don't think he's the best from I 1536 01:15:13,560 --> 01:15:16,040 Speaker 1: don't think he's the majority of the party. But especially 1537 01:15:16,080 --> 01:15:18,840 Speaker 1: with younger Republicans who are basically grown up in an 1538 01:15:18,880 --> 01:15:22,639 Speaker 1: America that's accepted the New Deal, but it's accepted social Security, 1539 01:15:23,040 --> 01:15:25,160 Speaker 1: it's actually not quite clear what the actual position is, 1540 01:15:25,320 --> 01:15:27,719 Speaker 1: which is why it's perfect for Joe Biden to attack 1541 01:15:27,800 --> 01:15:30,640 Speaker 1: in that direction. I completely agree with that characters. The 1542 01:15:30,720 --> 01:15:32,800 Speaker 1: defund is exactly right right, which is one of those 1543 01:15:32,840 --> 01:15:34,120 Speaker 1: they're like, no, no, no, what we want to do 1544 01:15:34,240 --> 01:15:36,519 Speaker 1: is raise the retirement age. It's like, well, okay, well 1545 01:15:36,680 --> 01:15:39,479 Speaker 1: you know you're still when you're already within that heuristic, 1546 01:15:39,600 --> 01:15:40,920 Speaker 1: It's like, it's not going to be good for you. 1547 01:15:41,439 --> 01:15:43,920 Speaker 1: Just so people know, cutting Social Security and Medicare is 1548 01:15:44,080 --> 01:15:47,040 Speaker 1: probably up there with defund the police and affirmative action 1549 01:15:47,160 --> 01:15:50,080 Speaker 1: as the least popular things that you could actually try 1550 01:15:50,120 --> 01:15:52,800 Speaker 1: and do in politics. Hence why he beats him over 1551 01:15:52,920 --> 01:15:55,200 Speaker 1: the head with the club with it, which is exactly 1552 01:15:55,520 --> 01:15:57,719 Speaker 1: what I would do. I was surprised that he didn't 1553 01:15:57,720 --> 01:16:02,080 Speaker 1: have been mentioned abortion more speech. My count was a 1554 01:16:02,240 --> 01:16:06,320 Speaker 1: single line. It came let's say like two thirds or 1555 01:16:06,400 --> 01:16:09,639 Speaker 1: so into that. I was pretty shocked by that. Actually, 1556 01:16:09,760 --> 01:16:11,519 Speaker 1: that's something I would have led with if I was president. 1557 01:16:11,640 --> 01:16:13,880 Speaker 1: So I just want to say, look, I hope I'm wrong, 1558 01:16:14,120 --> 01:16:16,000 Speaker 1: But we just saw with this whole fight with getting 1559 01:16:16,080 --> 01:16:18,719 Speaker 1: Kevin MacArthur to be speaker, there was a whole fight, 1560 01:16:18,840 --> 01:16:21,240 Speaker 1: and there was a right flank that was pushing back 1561 01:16:21,280 --> 01:16:22,880 Speaker 1: against him. And one of the things they settled on 1562 01:16:23,000 --> 01:16:24,680 Speaker 1: is we're going to have a debt ceiling showdown. And 1563 01:16:24,720 --> 01:16:26,680 Speaker 1: our whole position in the debt ceiling showdown is we 1564 01:16:26,720 --> 01:16:29,439 Speaker 1: want to force cuts to Social Security and Medicare. So 1565 01:16:29,600 --> 01:16:32,080 Speaker 1: I think the overwhelming majority of the party is going 1566 01:16:32,160 --> 01:16:33,680 Speaker 1: to be on board with that. Now, whether or not, 1567 01:16:34,040 --> 01:16:36,559 Speaker 1: you know, I hope Biden is telling the truth when 1568 01:16:36,560 --> 01:16:37,600 Speaker 1: he's like, I'm not going to do some sort of 1569 01:16:37,640 --> 01:16:39,000 Speaker 1: grand bargain. I'm not going to cut it at all. 1570 01:16:39,200 --> 01:16:41,360 Speaker 1: But I think the predominant position in the Republican Party 1571 01:16:41,560 --> 01:16:43,599 Speaker 1: is let's cut it. Well, I'm not so sure because 1572 01:16:43,600 --> 01:16:46,479 Speaker 1: remember that's only seventeen people, right who tried to extract that. 1573 01:16:46,600 --> 01:16:49,160 Speaker 1: Those are like the Tea Party of Freedom, caccus diehards. 1574 01:16:49,240 --> 01:16:52,000 Speaker 1: What the look the majority? I genuinely have no idea. 1575 01:16:52,280 --> 01:16:54,080 Speaker 1: I do not know. If you were to ask me 1576 01:16:54,280 --> 01:16:56,439 Speaker 1: my gut feeling, I think most of them would say 1577 01:16:56,600 --> 01:16:58,439 Speaker 1: what I said, something around like they want to raise 1578 01:16:58,479 --> 01:17:00,000 Speaker 1: the retirement age, but of course we don't. But that's 1579 01:17:00,320 --> 01:17:02,200 Speaker 1: that's a cover. Yeah, I agree with you. What I'm 1580 01:17:02,200 --> 01:17:03,960 Speaker 1: saying is like, that is what I think most of them. 1581 01:17:04,080 --> 01:17:08,280 Speaker 1: They don't. They don't want their position to be characterized 1582 01:17:08,360 --> 01:17:14,280 Speaker 1: as cuttings. That's different. That's the line, right, But that 1583 01:17:14,600 --> 01:17:17,400 Speaker 1: is even just them not wanting their position to be 1584 01:17:17,560 --> 01:17:20,519 Speaker 1: characterized that way is very different. And of course the 1585 01:17:20,600 --> 01:17:23,040 Speaker 1: fact that I mean Joe Biden was part of the 1586 01:17:23,120 --> 01:17:26,360 Speaker 1: Obama administration that actually put a deal on the table 1587 01:17:26,640 --> 01:17:30,200 Speaker 1: that would have cut Social Security and now clear and 1588 01:17:30,439 --> 01:17:32,160 Speaker 1: he you know, over the course of his career a 1589 01:17:32,280 --> 01:17:35,680 Speaker 1: number of times talked about cutting Social Security. So it 1590 01:17:35,800 --> 01:17:38,240 Speaker 1: does show you the way that the politics around this 1591 01:17:38,360 --> 01:17:40,680 Speaker 1: issue have clearly shifted. Now. One thing I think that's 1592 01:17:40,760 --> 01:17:43,280 Speaker 1: really important to say is that in terms of the 1593 01:17:43,880 --> 01:17:48,439 Speaker 1: big money institutions within the Republican Party, like the think 1594 01:17:48,560 --> 01:17:51,880 Speaker 1: tanks and you know, the coke industry of the Coke Network, 1595 01:17:52,280 --> 01:17:55,080 Speaker 1: they still are very much looking for every opportunity they 1596 01:17:55,120 --> 01:17:57,280 Speaker 1: can possibly find to cut these programs, and that matters 1597 01:17:57,320 --> 01:17:59,280 Speaker 1: a lot. I think they want to have their cake 1598 01:17:59,320 --> 01:18:01,439 Speaker 1: and eat it too. They want to like piss on 1599 01:18:01,520 --> 01:18:03,400 Speaker 1: people and say it's raining, so they want to do 1600 01:18:03,560 --> 01:18:06,120 Speaker 1: the dead ceiling thing, force the customing go oh, we're 1601 01:18:06,160 --> 01:18:08,720 Speaker 1: not we're just performing it. We're saving it. So that's 1602 01:18:08,840 --> 01:18:10,840 Speaker 1: that's what they've that's their game. That's what their game 1603 01:18:10,880 --> 01:18:12,360 Speaker 1: has been for a long time. So I think that's 1604 01:18:12,439 --> 01:18:14,840 Speaker 1: the goal. It's not like they're actually becoming more moderate 1605 01:18:14,880 --> 01:18:16,920 Speaker 1: on it because they're afraid to acknowledge what their actual position. 1606 01:18:17,080 --> 01:18:20,280 Speaker 1: They recognize how toxic and terrible the politics are for them. 1607 01:18:20,400 --> 01:18:23,800 Speaker 1: They recognize that they cannot be out and out being like, yes, 1608 01:18:23,880 --> 01:18:26,479 Speaker 1: we want to cut social Security because they have realized 1609 01:18:26,520 --> 01:18:29,559 Speaker 1: that that is devastating for them. I want to pick 1610 01:18:29,640 --> 01:18:31,600 Speaker 1: up saga on what you were saying, because that was 1611 01:18:31,640 --> 01:18:33,960 Speaker 1: something I noted too. You know, in advance, you were 1612 01:18:34,000 --> 01:18:37,759 Speaker 1: saying like, okay, here's the formula. Yes, economics, but clearly 1613 01:18:37,880 --> 01:18:40,360 Speaker 1: the stop the steal stuff in January sixth and abortion, 1614 01:18:40,600 --> 01:18:42,720 Speaker 1: like that's what won the midterm, So he's going to 1615 01:18:42,800 --> 01:18:47,440 Speaker 1: lean into that. He really didn't both. He closed with democracy. 1616 01:18:47,920 --> 01:18:51,640 Speaker 1: He closed with January sixth, Paul Pelosi with abortion was 1617 01:18:51,680 --> 01:18:55,160 Speaker 1: also in the latter part of the speech, but the 1618 01:18:55,280 --> 01:18:58,640 Speaker 1: part that really counts in terms of what they're you know, 1619 01:18:58,840 --> 01:19:01,920 Speaker 1: focused on and what the message they want to take away. 1620 01:19:02,280 --> 01:19:05,519 Speaker 1: It really was loaded up with economics, and I was 1621 01:19:05,600 --> 01:19:09,040 Speaker 1: also surprised that you had very little mention of abortion 1622 01:19:09,560 --> 01:19:12,519 Speaker 1: ultimately in this speech. I mean, the two themes that 1623 01:19:12,640 --> 01:19:15,760 Speaker 1: he leaned into very heavily to start with was this 1624 01:19:15,920 --> 01:19:19,360 Speaker 1: idea of like, I'm the guy who can work with anyone, bipartisanship, 1625 01:19:19,479 --> 01:19:21,640 Speaker 1: let's get things done for the American people, and then 1626 01:19:22,040 --> 01:19:25,840 Speaker 1: laying out the case of what he thinks he's delivered 1627 01:19:26,160 --> 01:19:29,839 Speaker 1: and what he still wants to do now. One challenge 1628 01:19:29,880 --> 01:19:31,800 Speaker 1: for him is the fact that we were looking at 1629 01:19:32,600 --> 01:19:36,200 Speaker 1: a poll before the speech, very few people say they 1630 01:19:36,320 --> 01:19:39,400 Speaker 1: feel like they've been impacted by the Biden agenda. So 1631 01:19:40,040 --> 01:19:42,360 Speaker 1: you know, whereas I think if you're over selling the 1632 01:19:42,520 --> 01:19:44,760 Speaker 1: economy and the rosy picture of the economy, you're going 1633 01:19:44,800 --> 01:19:47,400 Speaker 1: to have a hard time. There probably is some benefit 1634 01:19:47,479 --> 01:19:50,040 Speaker 1: you can get just from selling here's the things we did, 1635 01:19:50,160 --> 01:19:52,360 Speaker 1: and going down the list and trying to persuade people 1636 01:19:52,439 --> 01:19:55,880 Speaker 1: that know, actually we have been doing some stuff. What 1637 01:19:55,960 --> 01:19:59,600 Speaker 1: do you think, Marshall, Yeah, I think it's I just 1638 01:19:59,680 --> 01:20:01,120 Speaker 1: want to go back to a quick thing you said 1639 01:20:01,120 --> 01:20:04,960 Speaker 1: about the lack of focus on the abortion and the 1640 01:20:05,040 --> 01:20:07,320 Speaker 1: democracy thing, Like maybe I think this kind of goes 1641 01:20:07,360 --> 01:20:09,960 Speaker 1: to my early comment about how I'd be curious about 1642 01:20:10,000 --> 01:20:12,800 Speaker 1: Joe Biden's like political analysis here, and it seems to 1643 01:20:12,840 --> 01:20:15,120 Speaker 1: be the political analysis is that you need to move 1644 01:20:15,240 --> 01:20:18,599 Speaker 1: on from twenty twenty two, like you're going to reach 1645 01:20:18,680 --> 01:20:20,920 Speaker 1: those heights, you're going to be successful that midterm. But 1646 01:20:21,000 --> 01:20:23,080 Speaker 1: maybe that's just not going to be successful running on 1647 01:20:23,160 --> 01:20:25,800 Speaker 1: that retread when it comes to twenty twenty three, Like 1648 01:20:25,840 --> 01:20:27,439 Speaker 1: there could be an instinct of like, man, we're going 1649 01:20:27,479 --> 01:20:29,960 Speaker 1: to still like you're still talking about that, it's not 1650 01:20:30,040 --> 01:20:33,400 Speaker 1: up for grabs as much. So Yeah, I'm really I'm 1651 01:20:33,439 --> 01:20:38,880 Speaker 1: really curious how the right responds to the economic stuff, 1652 01:20:38,960 --> 01:20:41,880 Speaker 1: especially soccer to your point about how Biden and Team 1653 01:20:41,920 --> 01:20:45,280 Speaker 1: Biden are clearly taking the like made in America compete 1654 01:20:45,320 --> 01:20:49,240 Speaker 1: with China bit that Trump added. So that, especially given 1655 01:20:49,840 --> 01:20:51,960 Speaker 1: the I think attempt to bring things back to the 1656 01:20:52,000 --> 01:20:54,120 Speaker 1: culture wars, is going to be interesting ship there. Yeah. 1657 01:20:54,120 --> 01:20:55,400 Speaker 1: I already know what they're going to do. They're gonna 1658 01:20:55,400 --> 01:20:57,120 Speaker 1: go culture war. They're going to criticize them on the border, 1659 01:20:57,200 --> 01:20:59,280 Speaker 1: and they're just not going to talk about econ because 1660 01:20:59,439 --> 01:21:03,080 Speaker 1: that's out going anyway. Kyle, let's get our last thoughts 1661 01:21:03,120 --> 01:21:05,960 Speaker 1: from you before we bring in and Ryan and Emly. Sure. Yeah. 1662 01:21:06,120 --> 01:21:10,679 Speaker 1: So I wanted to point out the fentanyl line from Biden. 1663 01:21:10,760 --> 01:21:14,280 Speaker 1: So he's over there talking about fentanyl and you have 1664 01:21:14,600 --> 01:21:17,720 Speaker 1: Marjorie Taylor Green and others start screaming at him. And 1665 01:21:17,800 --> 01:21:20,439 Speaker 1: I heard somebody say China, yes, and then somebody say 1666 01:21:20,520 --> 01:21:22,439 Speaker 1: like it's your fault or something like that. To be fair, 1667 01:21:22,479 --> 01:21:25,080 Speaker 1: the vast majority of the fentanyl comes from China. Okay, 1668 01:21:25,240 --> 01:21:27,639 Speaker 1: I know I understand that, but I always get super 1669 01:21:27,680 --> 01:21:30,760 Speaker 1: triggered over this because I feel like the approach from 1670 01:21:30,800 --> 01:21:33,200 Speaker 1: many people is just brain dead. Because Chris and I 1671 01:21:33,280 --> 01:21:36,120 Speaker 1: have talked about this about thirty thousand people a year 1672 01:21:36,280 --> 01:21:39,080 Speaker 1: die from overdoses. When it was the pain pills. Then 1673 01:21:39,160 --> 01:21:41,160 Speaker 1: we cracked down on the pain pills with all the 1674 01:21:41,200 --> 01:21:43,280 Speaker 1: good intentions in the world, and then people went to 1675 01:21:43,360 --> 01:21:45,200 Speaker 1: the black market and they got heroin. Some of that 1676 01:21:45,360 --> 01:21:47,679 Speaker 1: heroin was laced with fentanyl, and now we have about 1677 01:21:47,680 --> 01:21:50,160 Speaker 1: one hundred thousand people dying every year. So it's this 1678 01:21:50,400 --> 01:21:53,599 Speaker 1: like the tyranny of good intentions in a sense, because 1679 01:21:53,840 --> 01:21:55,920 Speaker 1: if I were to tell somebody like Marjorie Taylor Green, like, 1680 01:21:56,000 --> 01:21:58,120 Speaker 1: hey man, we need to legalize, tax and regulate drugs 1681 01:21:58,160 --> 01:22:00,880 Speaker 1: in order to get past this whole fentanyl crisis, should 1682 01:22:00,880 --> 01:22:03,559 Speaker 1: be like, you're insane. That would add to the problem. Well, 1683 01:22:03,640 --> 01:22:06,040 Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's a fair point. I think 1684 01:22:06,080 --> 01:22:08,400 Speaker 1: it's also a fair point to say, like, there is 1685 01:22:08,520 --> 01:22:10,720 Speaker 1: a lot of fentanyl coming across the border, and from 1686 01:22:10,800 --> 01:22:13,479 Speaker 1: what I've seen, they've said that actually, if you did 1687 01:22:13,840 --> 01:22:16,960 Speaker 1: at least have some more enforcement that was happening there, 1688 01:22:17,000 --> 01:22:19,160 Speaker 1: it would make it much harder and raise the price, 1689 01:22:19,160 --> 01:22:21,840 Speaker 1: which would increase actually the amount of pure heroin. Now 1690 01:22:21,840 --> 01:22:23,920 Speaker 1: I'm not saying that's necessarily a good thing. What I'm 1691 01:22:23,960 --> 01:22:26,760 Speaker 1: saying is it's complicated. I also would remind you we 1692 01:22:26,840 --> 01:22:28,040 Speaker 1: have to talk about what's in the realm of the 1693 01:22:28,120 --> 01:22:30,519 Speaker 1: possible and in that what was it in the polling 1694 01:22:30,600 --> 01:22:32,600 Speaker 1: data that we had there, which which one is that 1695 01:22:32,720 --> 01:22:34,920 Speaker 1: if we have that element, is that a three? Can 1696 01:22:34,960 --> 01:22:36,800 Speaker 1: we go ahead and put that up there on the screen. 1697 01:22:37,120 --> 01:22:39,720 Speaker 1: Pre research, I think cracking down on illegal drugs was 1698 01:22:39,760 --> 01:22:42,160 Speaker 1: at like fifty seven percent, So I mean, the public 1699 01:22:42,240 --> 01:22:44,000 Speaker 1: is just not there whenever it comes to now I 1700 01:22:44,120 --> 01:22:47,000 Speaker 1: understand that like legalizing there it is. Reducing the availability 1701 01:22:47,040 --> 01:22:48,920 Speaker 1: of illegal drugs is right there at fifty three percent. 1702 01:22:49,120 --> 01:22:52,120 Speaker 1: Biden also doesn't get credit though, when he'd a lot 1703 01:22:52,200 --> 01:22:54,599 Speaker 1: of Biden gets a lot of shots from his left 1704 01:22:54,760 --> 01:22:56,680 Speaker 1: on the border because he's continued a lot of the 1705 01:22:56,720 --> 01:22:58,960 Speaker 1: Trump policies on the border. So he does a lot 1706 01:22:59,000 --> 01:23:01,120 Speaker 1: of the things Trump has done. And it's not like 1707 01:23:01,160 --> 01:23:03,680 Speaker 1: anybody on the right goes, hey, we agree with you 1708 01:23:03,800 --> 01:23:06,280 Speaker 1: on this one fella, like he's not doing it. They 1709 01:23:06,280 --> 01:23:08,160 Speaker 1: act like he's in favor of open borders or something. Well, 1710 01:23:08,160 --> 01:23:10,679 Speaker 1: you're talking about migrants and tv Fair's administration has tried 1711 01:23:10,680 --> 01:23:12,760 Speaker 1: to end majority of those policies in court, and it's 1712 01:23:12,800 --> 01:23:15,360 Speaker 1: only after they weren't able to end those administration policies 1713 01:23:15,400 --> 01:23:18,160 Speaker 1: in court that they ended up keeping well, they not 1714 01:23:18,280 --> 01:23:22,040 Speaker 1: only kept him, they expanded them well, then the court 1715 01:23:22,200 --> 01:23:24,760 Speaker 1: then they also there has been a fentanyl seizures at 1716 01:23:24,760 --> 01:23:26,439 Speaker 1: the border. There's been a number of there's been some. 1717 01:23:26,800 --> 01:23:29,720 Speaker 1: I mean, he's like not trying to see. My point is, Look, 1718 01:23:29,760 --> 01:23:31,800 Speaker 1: we can keep going round and round in circles trying 1719 01:23:31,800 --> 01:23:33,800 Speaker 1: to do the same policy that's not working, or we 1720 01:23:33,840 --> 01:23:36,120 Speaker 1: can do the actual solution. But she's not interested in 1721 01:23:36,160 --> 01:23:38,439 Speaker 1: a real solution. She's interested in yelling at Biden in 1722 01:23:38,479 --> 01:23:40,000 Speaker 1: the middle of a speech when he's talking about a 1723 01:23:40,120 --> 01:23:42,640 Speaker 1: very serious issue like fentomyl I don't they need and 1724 01:23:42,800 --> 01:23:44,160 Speaker 1: needs to get serious on it? Two. I don't think 1725 01:23:44,200 --> 01:23:46,720 Speaker 1: anyone on this stream has claimed Marjorie is interested in 1726 01:23:48,240 --> 01:23:54,200 Speaker 1: and neither is there. We perhaps can can close this 1727 01:23:54,360 --> 01:23:57,519 Speaker 1: out with a something that will unify us in the 1728 01:23:57,560 --> 01:23:59,560 Speaker 1: spirit of what Joe Biden wanted to bring, which is 1729 01:24:00,360 --> 01:24:04,360 Speaker 1: both Kirsten Cinema and Marjorie Taylor Green apparently dressed like 1730 01:24:04,439 --> 01:24:06,720 Speaker 1: it was the Hunger Kid. Yes, what is going on? 1731 01:24:07,920 --> 01:24:11,559 Speaker 1: Wearing some yellow, big bird ass looking thing. People will 1732 01:24:11,600 --> 01:24:14,120 Speaker 1: have all kinds of memes and Marjorie Taylor Green and 1733 01:24:14,200 --> 01:24:16,840 Speaker 1: some white fur she looks like from lying lying the 1734 01:24:16,880 --> 01:24:19,479 Speaker 1: Witch in the wardrobe. I mean, look, I'm gonna break 1735 01:24:19,560 --> 01:24:22,640 Speaker 1: my cursing thing. This is driving me insane. What the 1736 01:24:22,760 --> 01:24:26,240 Speaker 1: fuck is going on? Like Kirston Cinema literally is dressing 1737 01:24:26,320 --> 01:24:29,920 Speaker 1: like she's going to the goddamn met Gala after presiding 1738 01:24:30,080 --> 01:24:33,400 Speaker 1: over the Senate in a T shirt with a heart 1739 01:24:33,479 --> 01:24:36,000 Speaker 1: on it. She is solely responsible for breaking a lot 1740 01:24:36,040 --> 01:24:38,240 Speaker 1: of female dress code that is there. And I blame 1741 01:24:38,320 --> 01:24:41,800 Speaker 1: her for Marjorie looking like she's literally in the Hunger Games, 1742 01:24:42,200 --> 01:24:44,320 Speaker 1: lying the witch, and there I am losing my goddamn 1743 01:24:44,400 --> 01:24:47,160 Speaker 1: mind over here, march over the collapse of dress code. 1744 01:24:47,240 --> 01:24:49,600 Speaker 1: Go ahead, Marshall, if we're gonna, if we're gonna, if 1745 01:24:49,600 --> 01:24:53,200 Speaker 1: we're gonna rank, I think we have to say, George 1746 01:24:53,240 --> 01:24:57,760 Speaker 1: Santos orange tie isn't great. I think Marjorie, I think margin. 1747 01:24:57,800 --> 01:24:59,480 Speaker 1: We'll let me put it this way. I think Marjorie's 1748 01:24:59,479 --> 01:25:02,559 Speaker 1: more compelled. Kirsten Cinema is work this way. Like if 1749 01:25:02,640 --> 01:25:05,040 Speaker 1: Marjorie showed up in yoga pants and a T shirt 1750 01:25:05,080 --> 01:25:07,040 Speaker 1: and you met at a coffee shop, she would still 1751 01:25:07,160 --> 01:25:09,719 Speaker 1: like have like a lot of like main character energy 1752 01:25:09,760 --> 01:25:12,280 Speaker 1: to her. I really think Kirsten cinema is someone who 1753 01:25:12,320 --> 01:25:14,680 Speaker 1: accessorizes to make up for the fact that she's just 1754 01:25:14,880 --> 01:25:21,240 Speaker 1: like so very I think that's insightful. Commentsar. Okay, everybody 1755 01:25:21,280 --> 01:25:23,080 Speaker 1: stick with us. Just give us five minutes. We're gonna 1756 01:25:23,080 --> 01:25:24,759 Speaker 1: switch the chairs out. We're gonna have Ryan and Emily 1757 01:25:24,880 --> 01:25:27,280 Speaker 1: in here. Thank you all so much for support control room. 1758 01:25:27,400 --> 01:25:30,960 Speaker 1: Let's throw the graphic up there and we'll start Michael Kyle. 1759 01:25:31,000 --> 01:25:36,840 Speaker 1: Guys had a fantastic job. Thanks for listening. Okay, we're back. 1760 01:25:36,920 --> 01:25:38,600 Speaker 1: Thank you everybody for sticking with us. Look at that 1761 01:25:38,760 --> 01:25:41,760 Speaker 1: wide shot. We got Ryan and Emily here, We got counterpoints, 1762 01:25:41,800 --> 01:25:46,439 Speaker 1: which is in the the house. If this were any 1763 01:25:46,479 --> 01:25:48,120 Speaker 1: other time, we would be doing a little bit of 1764 01:25:48,160 --> 01:25:50,519 Speaker 1: camera adjustment. But this is what looks like when it's live. 1765 01:25:50,560 --> 01:25:52,800 Speaker 1: When we have a brand new, beautiful studio that you 1766 01:25:52,960 --> 01:25:55,479 Speaker 1: premium subs are helping us with, it will be different, 1767 01:25:55,560 --> 01:25:58,439 Speaker 1: we promise. Okay, so people have heard us talk a 1768 01:25:58,479 --> 01:26:01,479 Speaker 1: little bit. Now, Ryan Emily watch a speech with us. 1769 01:26:01,840 --> 01:26:03,920 Speaker 1: What do you guys think? Bryan, you go first, all right. 1770 01:26:04,080 --> 01:26:07,040 Speaker 1: I mean, the thing that's most important to me about 1771 01:26:07,080 --> 01:26:10,439 Speaker 1: this is that it is the launch of his presidential campaign. 1772 01:26:10,920 --> 01:26:13,040 Speaker 1: So you're really not going to make a whole lot 1773 01:26:13,080 --> 01:26:14,800 Speaker 1: of policy, and you're not going to make a lot 1774 01:26:14,840 --> 01:26:18,040 Speaker 1: of you're not going to move the needle on public 1775 01:26:18,120 --> 01:26:21,320 Speaker 1: opinion and really on the ground or in the room. 1776 01:26:21,680 --> 01:26:24,800 Speaker 1: Except for that Medicare thing and Medicare and security thing, 1777 01:26:24,800 --> 01:26:27,360 Speaker 1: which was absolutely remarkable. We want to talk more about 1778 01:26:27,400 --> 01:26:29,280 Speaker 1: that in a minute. But if this is what he's 1779 01:26:29,320 --> 01:26:31,840 Speaker 1: going to run on, this is kind of exciting, Like 1780 01:26:31,960 --> 01:26:34,880 Speaker 1: this is this is a party that like working people 1781 01:26:35,160 --> 01:26:37,000 Speaker 1: could get behind. I mean, what did he talk about. 1782 01:26:37,080 --> 01:26:41,240 Speaker 1: He talked about, you know, supporting organized labor, past the 1783 01:26:41,320 --> 01:26:44,679 Speaker 1: pro Act, go after big pharma. We're going to address 1784 01:26:44,720 --> 01:26:47,559 Speaker 1: climate change. So we're going to you know, cap insulin prices, 1785 01:26:48,560 --> 01:26:52,479 Speaker 1: you know, Medicare, billionaire attacks, We're going to bust up 1786 01:26:52,520 --> 01:26:55,320 Speaker 1: monopolies and all the different fees. I'm going to a 1787 01:26:55,360 --> 01:26:57,400 Speaker 1: resort and it's not even a resort, and I'm playing 1788 01:26:57,439 --> 01:27:01,479 Speaker 1: a result fee. But you know that very personal friend's 1789 01:27:01,520 --> 01:27:06,160 Speaker 1: house that was clearly personally and his friends charged him 1790 01:27:06,200 --> 01:27:10,240 Speaker 1: a resort fee. But so so you Yeah, and he's 1791 01:27:10,280 --> 01:27:12,400 Speaker 1: going for the identity theft and some funny stuff like that, 1792 01:27:12,680 --> 01:27:16,400 Speaker 1: like somebody people are getting to him. Yeah, But in general, 1793 01:27:16,840 --> 01:27:20,200 Speaker 1: it's that's a platform that people could get behind. It's 1794 01:27:20,439 --> 01:27:23,960 Speaker 1: it's strange, It was a lot of Matt Stoller was 1795 01:27:24,080 --> 01:27:27,439 Speaker 1: very excited in this because he's talking about anti trust. 1796 01:27:28,160 --> 01:27:30,479 Speaker 1: What was it first present? The first presence, it's nineteen 1797 01:27:30,560 --> 01:27:34,759 Speaker 1: seventy nine. To mention anti trust, you're talking about industrial policy, 1798 01:27:34,920 --> 01:27:38,080 Speaker 1: you're talking about making things in America, making things in America. 1799 01:27:38,479 --> 01:27:40,560 Speaker 1: And then you know, I mean, I'm not big on 1800 01:27:40,640 --> 01:27:43,880 Speaker 1: this whole squishy like bipartisan comedy whatever, but there are 1801 01:27:43,880 --> 01:27:45,519 Speaker 1: a lot of people who are really into that. That's 1802 01:27:45,560 --> 01:27:47,680 Speaker 1: a very normy sentiment of like, why can't we all 1803 01:27:47,720 --> 01:27:49,960 Speaker 1: just come together and get some things done? What I 1804 01:27:50,000 --> 01:27:52,080 Speaker 1: said earlier, Emily, and I want to get your thoughts 1805 01:27:52,120 --> 01:27:55,280 Speaker 1: on the whole thing, though, is I think the fact 1806 01:27:55,360 --> 01:27:58,760 Speaker 1: that you had this sort of ugly raucousness from the 1807 01:27:58,880 --> 01:28:01,879 Speaker 1: Republicans in there really did kind of play into Biden's 1808 01:28:01,920 --> 01:28:03,760 Speaker 1: hands of looking like the grown up in the room. 1809 01:28:03,920 --> 01:28:07,000 Speaker 1: He looked in control too. He was almost like engaging 1810 01:28:07,080 --> 01:28:09,320 Speaker 1: with the cloud. He let them finish. He wasn't and 1811 01:28:09,479 --> 01:28:11,840 Speaker 1: he wasn't heckling them back. He let them finish. So 1812 01:28:11,960 --> 01:28:14,240 Speaker 1: I think optically that's one hundred percent correct. That did 1813 01:28:14,360 --> 01:28:17,000 Speaker 1: not work in the way that let's say Marjorie Taylor 1814 01:28:17,080 --> 01:28:19,240 Speaker 1: Green or whomever else was involved, and it wanted it 1815 01:28:19,400 --> 01:28:23,240 Speaker 1: to work. That said to Ryan's point, and actually Kyle 1816 01:28:23,360 --> 01:28:25,519 Speaker 1: made this point too. He gave a speech that was 1817 01:28:25,640 --> 01:28:29,519 Speaker 1: so front loaded on economics, and that's really smart. If 1818 01:28:29,560 --> 01:28:32,000 Speaker 1: you were Biden's speechwriters, you should be really happy with 1819 01:28:32,120 --> 01:28:34,680 Speaker 1: how this turned out. He's sort of checking down, going 1820 01:28:34,720 --> 01:28:38,000 Speaker 1: through the laundry list and flashing out actually not just 1821 01:28:38,120 --> 01:28:41,320 Speaker 1: listing off, but fleshing out things like infrastructure, things like 1822 01:28:41,400 --> 01:28:45,000 Speaker 1: the Chips Act. Now to the bipartisanship point, I think 1823 01:28:45,040 --> 01:28:49,200 Speaker 1: that's a fascinating point because it works with people until 1824 01:28:49,240 --> 01:28:53,240 Speaker 1: the country stops working. Because he had a line earlier 1825 01:28:53,640 --> 01:28:56,640 Speaker 1: where he talked about basically decades of hollowing out the 1826 01:28:56,760 --> 01:29:00,120 Speaker 1: middle class. Who was in the Senate, who was the 1827 01:29:00,200 --> 01:29:05,120 Speaker 1: senator for MasterCard with identity theft. Yes, I brought that up, 1828 01:29:06,040 --> 01:29:09,080 Speaker 1: middle class. I mean, it's just like, so that's a 1829 01:29:09,200 --> 01:29:11,519 Speaker 1: real problem for Biden, and I think he has never 1830 01:29:11,600 --> 01:29:14,880 Speaker 1: had a real answer to confronting it head on politically. 1831 01:29:15,400 --> 01:29:18,920 Speaker 1: But tacking in that direction, it's not just good news 1832 01:29:19,000 --> 01:29:22,000 Speaker 1: for Democrats, it's good news for the country that Republicans 1833 01:29:22,240 --> 01:29:25,559 Speaker 1: at least optically, were so vehemently offended by what Joe 1834 01:29:25,560 --> 01:29:28,320 Speaker 1: Biden said with social security medicaaracters. They said, Kevin McCarthy 1835 01:29:28,360 --> 01:29:29,960 Speaker 1: gave his whole speech last night. It's off the table. 1836 01:29:30,000 --> 01:29:31,800 Speaker 1: It's off the table. That's good news for the country 1837 01:29:31,840 --> 01:29:33,600 Speaker 1: because it tells you where the Overton window is. You 1838 01:29:33,640 --> 01:29:36,840 Speaker 1: know what's funny, I'm monitoring the professional press corps. What 1839 01:29:36,920 --> 01:29:39,280 Speaker 1: are they all talking about decorum in the House. I'm like, 1840 01:29:39,680 --> 01:29:42,599 Speaker 1: who cares about the decorum? Like, look, I'm not saying 1841 01:29:42,640 --> 01:29:46,560 Speaker 1: it isn't a thing, but social security, people, medicare, that 1842 01:29:46,760 --> 01:29:49,840 Speaker 1: is that is going to define the next couple of 1843 01:29:49,960 --> 01:29:52,680 Speaker 1: months of our politics. It's driving me nuts. And like 1844 01:29:52,960 --> 01:29:54,439 Speaker 1: that was the first thing I zeroed in on. I 1845 01:29:54,520 --> 01:29:56,240 Speaker 1: was like, man, that's a big moment. That is going 1846 01:29:56,320 --> 01:30:00,240 Speaker 1: to be every ad, the Biden ad, the launch. I'm 1847 01:30:00,280 --> 01:30:03,559 Speaker 1: the one who protected it. I will veto the Bill 1848 01:30:03,800 --> 01:30:05,800 Speaker 1: crystals picking up on the fact that Republicans are not 1849 01:30:05,920 --> 01:30:08,280 Speaker 1: willing to go there yet. This also puts Trump on 1850 01:30:08,320 --> 01:30:10,080 Speaker 1: the back foot where he's like, no, they're lying that 1851 01:30:10,120 --> 01:30:12,519 Speaker 1: we don't want to cut those security but he doesn't 1852 01:30:12,560 --> 01:30:15,120 Speaker 1: have a unified coalition. I'm like, this is it. This 1853 01:30:15,240 --> 01:30:17,200 Speaker 1: is the whole ballgame, Ryan, So what else do you 1854 01:30:17,240 --> 01:30:19,440 Speaker 1: want to dig into on yeah and yeah? For decades 1855 01:30:19,520 --> 01:30:22,760 Speaker 1: on the left, there's been this internal argument, do you 1856 01:30:22,880 --> 01:30:24,960 Speaker 1: work within the Democratic Party to try to make the 1857 01:30:25,040 --> 01:30:27,519 Speaker 1: Democratic Party a better thing? Or do you work outside 1858 01:30:27,560 --> 01:30:29,320 Speaker 1: at you start a third party and try to pressure 1859 01:30:29,360 --> 01:30:32,320 Speaker 1: them from there. As the working class is kind of 1860 01:30:32,360 --> 01:30:35,720 Speaker 1: being divided by between the two parties here, a kind 1861 01:30:35,720 --> 01:30:37,759 Speaker 1: of new answer is emerging, which is that you actually 1862 01:30:37,800 --> 01:30:41,280 Speaker 1: work within both parties. And Joe Biden did that tonight, 1863 01:30:41,600 --> 01:30:45,360 Speaker 1: Like I've never seen a speech like that kind of 1864 01:30:45,600 --> 01:30:49,360 Speaker 1: change the negotiating table, change the game in the way 1865 01:30:49,400 --> 01:30:53,280 Speaker 1: it did before this speech. Republicans had their game plan 1866 01:30:53,439 --> 01:30:56,280 Speaker 1: for when it came to the debt ceiling crisis. You know, 1867 01:30:56,320 --> 01:30:58,439 Speaker 1: they're going to hold it hostage. They're going to force 1868 01:30:58,520 --> 01:31:00,400 Speaker 1: behind the table or get some cuts, and then they're 1869 01:31:00,439 --> 01:31:02,200 Speaker 1: going to agree to it the same way that they 1870 01:31:02,320 --> 01:31:05,920 Speaker 1: jammed Biden up ten years ago. They come out of 1871 01:31:06,040 --> 01:31:10,320 Speaker 1: this speech with nothing left, right, Like, so what do they? Okay? Well, 1872 01:31:10,400 --> 01:31:11,880 Speaker 1: now what are you going to do? You're not cutting 1873 01:31:11,960 --> 01:31:15,679 Speaker 1: military spending because you're Republicans. Now, you can't cut solid 1874 01:31:15,680 --> 01:31:18,040 Speaker 1: security and medicare because you just told the whole country 1875 01:31:18,600 --> 01:31:20,360 Speaker 1: that he's a liar and that you would never do 1876 01:31:20,560 --> 01:31:24,800 Speaker 1: such a thing. So you're left with the EPA, and 1877 01:31:25,040 --> 01:31:32,720 Speaker 1: like Noah and the BLM, they can cut BLM and 1878 01:31:33,240 --> 01:31:35,839 Speaker 1: tell their base that it's Black Lives matter, and actually 1879 01:31:35,960 --> 01:31:38,400 Speaker 1: they can trim the Bureau of Land Management. Yeah, I 1880 01:31:38,439 --> 01:31:42,080 Speaker 1: was gonna say alone, understand he's going to fly back 1881 01:31:42,360 --> 01:31:44,400 Speaker 1: for that meeting and defend his budget. Well, I do 1882 01:31:44,640 --> 01:31:47,640 Speaker 1: to your point, because they obviously took great umbrage at 1883 01:31:47,680 --> 01:31:51,320 Speaker 1: the suggestion that they wanted to Medicaid. They want to 1884 01:31:51,479 --> 01:31:55,160 Speaker 1: save it, they will strengthen it, right, But I mean 1885 01:31:55,280 --> 01:31:57,920 Speaker 1: the numbers just don't work out, Like the math just 1886 01:31:58,040 --> 01:32:00,280 Speaker 1: doesn't work out. If you're like, I want to slash 1887 01:32:00,320 --> 01:32:03,040 Speaker 1: the budget by this huge amount, right, which they do 1888 01:32:03,240 --> 01:32:05,479 Speaker 1: in which they've said publicly, But I don't want to 1889 01:32:05,520 --> 01:32:08,720 Speaker 1: touch those security Medican like it just literally doesn't or 1890 01:32:08,800 --> 01:32:11,240 Speaker 1: the Pentagon, if we put those together, it's not going 1891 01:32:11,320 --> 01:32:13,400 Speaker 1: to work out for you. And so that's why it 1892 01:32:13,520 --> 01:32:15,880 Speaker 1: is a fair hit to say to them, like, no, 1893 01:32:16,160 --> 01:32:19,519 Speaker 1: you want to hold the debt sealing hostage, you want 1894 01:32:19,600 --> 01:32:22,120 Speaker 1: to cut these programs. You have a track record of 1895 01:32:22,160 --> 01:32:24,400 Speaker 1: wanting to cut these programs center Rex Scott said, you 1896 01:32:24,400 --> 01:32:28,000 Speaker 1: want to cut these programs, and it was pretty remarkable 1897 01:32:28,040 --> 01:32:29,920 Speaker 1: to see how much they freaked out about that. And 1898 01:32:30,040 --> 01:32:32,360 Speaker 1: a good sign though, again because this is post Paul 1899 01:32:32,439 --> 01:32:34,960 Speaker 1: Ryan politics and Republicans have realized, I mean, you can 1900 01:32:35,080 --> 01:32:37,720 Speaker 1: cut the entire Pentagon. This is per Brian Ridle at 1901 01:32:37,720 --> 01:32:39,760 Speaker 1: the Manhattan Institute. You could literally get rid of the 1902 01:32:39,800 --> 01:32:43,880 Speaker 1: Department of Defense, and you can't balance the entitlement balance 1903 01:32:43,920 --> 01:32:45,880 Speaker 1: sheet in the way that Republicans say that they want to. 1904 01:32:46,200 --> 01:32:48,479 Speaker 1: And there's a reckoning with that on the right right now. 1905 01:32:48,520 --> 01:32:51,479 Speaker 1: That doesn't mean that Mitch McConnell wouldn't love to get 1906 01:32:51,520 --> 01:32:54,400 Speaker 1: his hands on and strengthen Social Security in money of it, 1907 01:32:55,320 --> 01:32:57,600 Speaker 1: but I think it's at least sort of becoming. And 1908 01:32:57,680 --> 01:32:59,240 Speaker 1: again I think this is good for the American people. 1909 01:32:59,280 --> 01:33:01,360 Speaker 1: You have JD. Vance, Donald Trump coming out and saying 1910 01:33:01,400 --> 01:33:04,719 Speaker 1: the same thing and setting the tone. You have Russ Vote, 1911 01:33:04,720 --> 01:33:08,000 Speaker 1: who's hugely influential in the New Right and Republican politics. 1912 01:33:08,240 --> 01:33:10,799 Speaker 1: His entire plan to balance the budget he was omb 1913 01:33:11,000 --> 01:33:13,760 Speaker 1: under Trump is don't touch those Security and Medicaid you 1914 01:33:13,800 --> 01:33:15,800 Speaker 1: can get rid of. To the point that you guys 1915 01:33:15,840 --> 01:33:18,719 Speaker 1: are making all of the woke policies and you don't 1916 01:33:18,800 --> 01:33:20,599 Speaker 1: have to. You can balance the budget in ten years 1917 01:33:20,640 --> 01:33:22,960 Speaker 1: without touching anything else. And just the fact that the 1918 01:33:23,000 --> 01:33:25,840 Speaker 1: wheels are in motion on that tells you that Republicans 1919 01:33:25,880 --> 01:33:29,040 Speaker 1: are like, no, we literally cannot even whisper a word 1920 01:33:29,120 --> 01:33:31,479 Speaker 1: about it, and if it comes out of your mouth, 1921 01:33:31,640 --> 01:33:33,439 Speaker 1: we are putting you in the corner. That's a really 1922 01:33:33,479 --> 01:33:36,840 Speaker 1: interesting point. We got Marshall and Kyle's reaction. I was 1923 01:33:36,880 --> 01:33:39,360 Speaker 1: curious for your guys reaction. So right now Sarah Huckabe 1924 01:33:39,439 --> 01:33:42,519 Speaker 1: Sanders is giving her Rebuttal, I don't know who's watching it, 1925 01:33:42,640 --> 01:33:44,599 Speaker 1: but we have an excerpt, and I think the excerpt 1926 01:33:44,640 --> 01:33:47,240 Speaker 1: is important more so, and what's not in it and 1927 01:33:47,479 --> 01:33:49,600 Speaker 1: what is in it and what the case of what 1928 01:33:49,960 --> 01:33:52,680 Speaker 1: the potential Republican pushback against this is going to be. 1929 01:33:52,720 --> 01:33:55,280 Speaker 1: I'll just read this again. And the radical lefts America, 1930 01:33:55,479 --> 01:33:58,240 Speaker 1: Washington taxes you and relights your hard earned money on fire. 1931 01:33:58,479 --> 01:34:01,000 Speaker 1: You get crushed with high gas prices, empty grocery shells. 1932 01:34:01,160 --> 01:34:03,080 Speaker 1: Our children are taught to hate one another on account 1933 01:34:03,080 --> 01:34:04,600 Speaker 1: of their race, but not to love one another or 1934 01:34:04,640 --> 01:34:07,000 Speaker 1: a great country. And while you reap the consequences of 1935 01:34:07,080 --> 01:34:09,800 Speaker 1: your failure. The Biden administration seems more interested in wolk 1936 01:34:09,880 --> 01:34:12,360 Speaker 1: fantasies than the hard reality that Americans face every day. 1937 01:34:12,560 --> 01:34:14,639 Speaker 1: Most Americans simply want to live their lives in freedom 1938 01:34:14,680 --> 01:34:16,640 Speaker 1: and peace. We are under attack in a left wing 1939 01:34:16,720 --> 01:34:19,160 Speaker 1: culture war that we didn't start and we never wanted 1940 01:34:19,200 --> 01:34:21,200 Speaker 1: to fight. Emily, what did you think of the strategy 1941 01:34:21,240 --> 01:34:23,800 Speaker 1: there to really go hard at the culture war? To 1942 01:34:23,880 --> 01:34:26,400 Speaker 1: be fair, she didn't actually watch the speech before she 1943 01:34:27,200 --> 01:34:30,439 Speaker 1: really said excerpt so clearly. But I mean that's kind 1944 01:34:30,439 --> 01:34:32,560 Speaker 1: of how all these things work. You get a predetermined 1945 01:34:32,720 --> 01:34:34,479 Speaker 1: little fact sheet and all that. What do you think 1946 01:34:34,479 --> 01:34:37,440 Speaker 1: of that strategy? That's a really good study in contrasts, 1947 01:34:37,520 --> 01:34:40,080 Speaker 1: I think because she expects Biden to come out, which 1948 01:34:40,160 --> 01:34:42,240 Speaker 1: is wrong. I mean, it's a good example of how 1949 01:34:42,280 --> 01:34:45,439 Speaker 1: Republicans are disconnected from the Biden that they're actually fighting 1950 01:34:45,479 --> 01:34:48,479 Speaker 1: as opposed to the straw man. And then it's not 1951 01:34:48,560 --> 01:34:50,760 Speaker 1: to say that Biden isn't doing stuff in the culture war. 1952 01:34:50,800 --> 01:34:53,040 Speaker 1: Of course, he is sort of bureaucratically in the executive 1953 01:34:53,080 --> 01:34:55,880 Speaker 1: that's in the ZOJ right, it's not a national name, right, 1954 01:34:55,960 --> 01:34:58,519 Speaker 1: and the Education Department and all these things that people 1955 01:34:58,560 --> 01:35:00,840 Speaker 1: aren't necessarily able to follow on a single day to 1956 01:35:00,920 --> 01:35:05,160 Speaker 1: day basis, but that Sarah Hackeby Sanders comes out anticipating 1957 01:35:05,400 --> 01:35:08,320 Speaker 1: a Biden culture war speeds speech, and what she gets 1958 01:35:08,439 --> 01:35:11,360 Speaker 1: is something like what Stolar points out, the first president 1959 01:35:11,439 --> 01:35:13,400 Speaker 1: to champion an anti trust reformist State of the Union 1960 01:35:13,400 --> 01:35:15,960 Speaker 1: since nineteen seventy nine. I haven't seen the full Sarah 1961 01:35:16,000 --> 01:35:19,479 Speaker 1: Hockeby Sanders speech yet, but man, is that going to 1962 01:35:19,840 --> 01:35:22,960 Speaker 1: miss the mark if Biden is out there talking about 1963 01:35:23,000 --> 01:35:27,680 Speaker 1: increasing manufacturing, increasing jobs, increasing decreasing unemployment in all of 1964 01:35:27,720 --> 01:35:32,080 Speaker 1: these economic metrics. She said the choices between normal and 1965 01:35:32,360 --> 01:35:34,799 Speaker 1: were crazy. This is a quote I just saw from Twitter. 1966 01:35:35,400 --> 01:35:39,760 Speaker 1: Republicans punching at a culture war straw Man is not 1967 01:35:40,040 --> 01:35:43,840 Speaker 1: giving people that choice very clearly. She's saying, yeah, right, 1968 01:35:44,240 --> 01:35:46,400 Speaker 1: but that's their problem because Biden is the one that 1969 01:35:46,479 --> 01:35:49,560 Speaker 1: comes off as normal. This is yeah, that's right. And 1970 01:35:49,680 --> 01:35:53,280 Speaker 1: that's why that's Biden's strength is in some ways his weakness. 1971 01:35:53,360 --> 01:35:56,519 Speaker 1: He's this like centrist old white man and it's just 1972 01:35:56,720 --> 01:35:59,439 Speaker 1: not gonna land. You're just not gonna call him a 1973 01:35:59,520 --> 01:36:03,120 Speaker 1: radical Wolkester, and it's that have it stick. Yeah, Then 1974 01:36:03,200 --> 01:36:05,280 Speaker 1: Jesse was like Jesse Waters or somebody said, people just 1975 01:36:05,320 --> 01:36:10,519 Speaker 1: don't hate Joe Biden. Yeah, true, it's something. So on 1976 01:36:10,720 --> 01:36:13,880 Speaker 1: the other hand, let's go ahead and put what is 1977 01:36:13,920 --> 01:36:16,439 Speaker 1: this be three guys that we could put up on 1978 01:36:16,479 --> 01:36:19,280 Speaker 1: the screen. Here from the Washington Post, where you have 1979 01:36:19,840 --> 01:36:22,560 Speaker 1: the latest post ABC poll, which had a lot of 1980 01:36:22,600 --> 01:36:25,120 Speaker 1: bad numbers for Joe Biden, says more than six and 1981 01:36:25,280 --> 01:36:28,439 Speaker 1: ten say the president has not accomplished much, despite they 1982 01:36:28,479 --> 01:36:31,639 Speaker 1: say the passage of numerous bills, which is true. Sixty 1983 01:36:31,680 --> 01:36:34,240 Speaker 1: two percent of Americans say Biden has accomplished not very 1984 01:36:34,320 --> 01:36:37,439 Speaker 1: much or little or nothing during his presidency. Only thirty 1985 01:36:37,479 --> 01:36:39,840 Speaker 1: six percent say is accomplish a great deal or a 1986 01:36:39,960 --> 01:36:43,519 Speaker 1: good amount. His approval rating is low. We shared a 1987 01:36:43,600 --> 01:36:46,880 Speaker 1: poll earlier that has him losing to Donald Trump. Of course, 1988 01:36:46,880 --> 01:36:48,800 Speaker 1: a lot of polls out there too, having losen to 1989 01:36:49,000 --> 01:36:51,760 Speaker 1: Ron DeSantis. If DeSantis ends up being the nominee, you 1990 01:36:51,840 --> 01:36:55,200 Speaker 1: have a majority of Democrats, Ryan, who say we don't 1991 01:36:55,200 --> 01:36:58,439 Speaker 1: want this guy to run again. We want someone else. So, 1992 01:36:58,960 --> 01:37:01,280 Speaker 1: even as you know, I listened to that speech, and 1993 01:37:01,320 --> 01:37:03,400 Speaker 1: there's a lot in there that you know, I respond to. 1994 01:37:03,560 --> 01:37:05,400 Speaker 1: I think it's a good case he makes about what 1995 01:37:05,479 --> 01:37:07,800 Speaker 1: he's done, about what he might do going forward, laying 1996 01:37:07,840 --> 01:37:11,400 Speaker 1: out industrial policy, anti trust, pro labor, et cetera. But 1997 01:37:12,240 --> 01:37:14,400 Speaker 1: there's a lot of signs American people aren't really feeling 1998 01:37:14,439 --> 01:37:17,599 Speaker 1: that right now. The flip side of nobody hating Joe 1999 01:37:17,680 --> 01:37:20,960 Speaker 1: Biden is that nobody really likes him right either. He's 2000 01:37:21,000 --> 01:37:24,479 Speaker 1: just he's just kind of he exists. Percent of people 2001 01:37:24,880 --> 01:37:32,719 Speaker 1: they were exciting the cast of Nicole Wallace a low rating, 2002 01:37:33,280 --> 01:37:35,800 Speaker 1: not even a good one, if there is such a thing. Yeah, 2003 01:37:35,880 --> 01:37:38,599 Speaker 1: so yeah, I don't know nobody. So, yeah, nobody's excited 2004 01:37:38,640 --> 01:37:41,640 Speaker 1: about him. But that's not that's not that's not how 2005 01:37:41,680 --> 01:37:44,519 Speaker 1: you govern anymore in America, and it's not necessarily how 2006 01:37:44,560 --> 01:37:48,240 Speaker 1: you win elections. Yeah, Like Hillary Clinton's problem was nobody 2007 01:37:48,360 --> 01:37:50,479 Speaker 1: was she had She had this small group that was 2008 01:37:50,479 --> 01:37:52,840 Speaker 1: really excited about her, but in general people weren't excited 2009 01:37:52,840 --> 01:37:56,080 Speaker 1: about it. I just qualified and most qualified, et cetera. 2010 01:37:56,400 --> 01:38:00,280 Speaker 1: But people intensely disliked her on the other side, and 2011 01:38:00,560 --> 01:38:02,680 Speaker 1: it became a contest you remember, in the polling at 2012 01:38:02,680 --> 01:38:06,439 Speaker 1: the very end of who was the least disliked by 2013 01:38:06,520 --> 01:38:09,439 Speaker 1: the American public, And Biden ended up beating Trump four 2014 01:38:09,479 --> 01:38:12,320 Speaker 1: years later because he was less disliked than Trump was. 2015 01:38:12,520 --> 01:38:14,360 Speaker 1: That's a good point. Yeah, with Trump, he has very 2016 01:38:14,479 --> 01:38:18,560 Speaker 1: high favorables and very high unfavorable so nobody feels ambivalent 2017 01:38:18,640 --> 01:38:22,439 Speaker 1: to right, whereas which everyone's ambivalent to Bid. Yeah, everyone is. 2018 01:38:22,520 --> 01:38:25,439 Speaker 1: Basically he's fine. I mean, only the thing I keep 2019 01:38:25,520 --> 01:38:28,080 Speaker 1: coming back to with Biden and his reelect is I 2020 01:38:28,120 --> 01:38:30,799 Speaker 1: don't know if you remember Ron Klain after Emmanuel Macron 2021 01:38:30,960 --> 01:38:35,479 Speaker 1: won reelection in France, where his approvaler rating was total 2022 01:38:35,560 --> 01:38:37,840 Speaker 1: trash r it was like in the thirties, and he's 2023 01:38:37,880 --> 01:38:40,559 Speaker 1: able to win, and he won pretty easily over Marine 2024 01:38:40,640 --> 01:38:43,880 Speaker 1: La Penn because people really hated her a lot. And 2025 01:38:44,040 --> 01:38:47,240 Speaker 1: so you know, Ron Clay tweets a sound was like, 2026 01:38:47,479 --> 01:38:50,719 Speaker 1: oh interesting, he won reelection with a thirty six percent 2027 01:38:50,800 --> 01:38:53,679 Speaker 1: approval rating or whatever. I mean, that kind of seems 2028 01:38:53,760 --> 01:38:56,200 Speaker 1: like the path that they are hoping for for Biden. 2029 01:38:56,360 --> 01:38:57,960 Speaker 1: And so that's why you see, you know, not only 2030 01:38:58,000 --> 01:38:59,760 Speaker 1: in the speech he really did front load with what 2031 01:38:59,800 --> 01:39:01,400 Speaker 1: he's done and what he wants to do and where 2032 01:39:01,439 --> 01:39:03,960 Speaker 1: we are, etc. On the economy, but there's also quite 2033 01:39:03,960 --> 01:39:06,280 Speaker 1: a bit in there which obviously Republicans got upset about 2034 01:39:06,520 --> 01:39:09,679 Speaker 1: about the Republican plans and why they were the wrong direction. 2035 01:39:09,920 --> 01:39:13,599 Speaker 1: So I mean, in some ways, I think his reelect 2036 01:39:13,720 --> 01:39:17,799 Speaker 1: hinges on how much people dislike the Republicans, how extreme 2037 01:39:17,880 --> 01:39:20,120 Speaker 1: they are, and how much they want to avoid going 2038 01:39:20,200 --> 01:39:22,599 Speaker 1: in that direction again, right, And that's why it totally 2039 01:39:22,640 --> 01:39:24,800 Speaker 1: depends on the nominee, and we've seen that show up 2040 01:39:24,840 --> 01:39:26,680 Speaker 1: in polling. But it's a really important point because I 2041 01:39:26,680 --> 01:39:29,280 Speaker 1: think American politics is lurching towards that reality for the 2042 01:39:29,320 --> 01:39:33,000 Speaker 1: foreseeable future period where you have people with really low 2043 01:39:33,000 --> 01:39:36,160 Speaker 1: approval ratings, maybe even low favorability ratings, that are just 2044 01:39:36,400 --> 01:39:39,960 Speaker 1: able to muster the right, cobble together the right coalition 2045 01:39:40,439 --> 01:39:43,160 Speaker 1: and just scraight past or get to that fifty percent 2046 01:39:43,320 --> 01:39:46,439 Speaker 1: mark or forty nine, whatever it is. And that's the 2047 01:39:46,520 --> 01:39:48,479 Speaker 1: reality I think we're facing in the country that we're 2048 01:39:48,560 --> 01:39:51,719 Speaker 1: too divided to have. I think, like Ronald Reagan's reelection, 2049 01:39:52,040 --> 01:39:56,280 Speaker 1: you know, where he's just trouncing absolutely everybody that's not 2050 01:39:56,320 --> 01:39:58,280 Speaker 1: gonna happen, or Bill Clinton. I mean, we're just we're 2051 01:39:58,320 --> 01:40:01,680 Speaker 1: not in that world anymore were and so Republicans, I 2052 01:40:01,760 --> 01:40:03,840 Speaker 1: think need to realize that if they want to create 2053 01:40:03,880 --> 01:40:08,040 Speaker 1: this dichotomy of normal versus crazy, they need to figure 2054 01:40:08,040 --> 01:40:10,160 Speaker 1: out how to make that stick. To Joe Biden, they 2055 01:40:10,200 --> 01:40:13,639 Speaker 1: need to not be that and not be crazy. Yeah, yeah, 2056 01:40:13,680 --> 01:40:15,840 Speaker 1: you can't have to do both. You don't do the 2057 01:40:15,880 --> 01:40:18,000 Speaker 1: Corilla the viill thing and stand up and yell. It's 2058 01:40:18,040 --> 01:40:19,880 Speaker 1: a tough I really don't know how they get their 2059 01:40:19,920 --> 01:40:21,320 Speaker 1: way out of it, because it's like I can make 2060 01:40:21,360 --> 01:40:24,519 Speaker 1: the case on either side, like if I'm Ron DeSantis. Look, okay, 2061 01:40:24,600 --> 01:40:26,599 Speaker 1: let's say try. We had a fun debate at our 2062 01:40:26,640 --> 01:40:29,679 Speaker 1: live show, what happens if Trump and DeSantis both die? 2063 01:40:30,400 --> 01:40:32,840 Speaker 1: But what's more likely let's say Trump's wrong with it 2064 01:40:32,920 --> 01:40:34,880 Speaker 1: was a funny. It was a fun Honestly, it was 2065 01:40:34,920 --> 01:40:39,320 Speaker 1: a fun second so many times. All right, if they 2066 01:40:40,160 --> 01:40:43,200 Speaker 1: what they both, they both get arrest. My scenario was 2067 01:40:43,240 --> 01:40:45,080 Speaker 1: that they were both on Air Force one and Air 2068 01:40:45,160 --> 01:40:48,360 Speaker 1: Force one crash on the way, they blow up the 2069 01:40:48,479 --> 01:40:52,519 Speaker 1: Chinese balloon floor and the debris takes them both out 2070 01:40:52,800 --> 01:40:56,960 Speaker 1: and Santos arrested for brooming. Santos actually know George Santos 2071 01:40:57,040 --> 01:41:00,320 Speaker 1: killed them both. Okay, so move on. Part of what 2072 01:41:00,400 --> 01:41:02,680 Speaker 1: we got too much diec from that. Part of what 2073 01:41:02,760 --> 01:41:06,360 Speaker 1: we got from that dialogue was that they need to 2074 01:41:06,520 --> 01:41:10,200 Speaker 1: try and reconcile the craziness of Trump and the energy 2075 01:41:10,600 --> 01:41:13,479 Speaker 1: of that with the fact that they still won six 2076 01:41:13,600 --> 01:41:16,600 Speaker 1: percent of the national popular vote during the midterms, like 2077 01:41:16,840 --> 01:41:19,000 Speaker 1: this can be done. Joe Biden is weak. We have 2078 01:41:19,160 --> 01:41:21,160 Speaker 1: all of the polling data to show that it is 2079 01:41:21,280 --> 01:41:25,200 Speaker 1: Trump and that wing which is dragging them down electorally. However, 2080 01:41:25,280 --> 01:41:28,160 Speaker 1: they hold so much power institutionally go ahead of Yeah, no, 2081 01:41:28,240 --> 01:41:30,360 Speaker 1: I think that's that's one hundred percent true. And Biden 2082 01:41:30,439 --> 01:41:32,200 Speaker 1: is picking up on this with his own party in 2083 01:41:32,320 --> 01:41:35,920 Speaker 1: a way that Republicans who have seen the culture War 2084 01:41:36,040 --> 01:41:38,960 Speaker 1: sort of path to victory in a Virginia or of Florida. 2085 01:41:39,360 --> 01:41:41,760 Speaker 1: You cannot just translate that to Sarah. How could be 2086 01:41:41,880 --> 01:41:45,560 Speaker 1: standards going all in and having absolutely no answer to 2087 01:41:45,680 --> 01:41:49,840 Speaker 1: Biden's very sort of like Normy aimed square the middle 2088 01:41:50,040 --> 01:41:54,320 Speaker 1: economic speech. That's like a kitchen table, real person speech. 2089 01:41:54,680 --> 01:41:56,679 Speaker 1: You can't just come out swinging with that kind of stuff. 2090 01:41:56,720 --> 01:41:58,920 Speaker 1: And Biden, for instance, he didn't say much, as you 2091 01:41:58,960 --> 01:42:01,800 Speaker 1: guys pointed out earlier, on abortion. He didn't say much 2092 01:42:01,840 --> 01:42:05,320 Speaker 1: about the border. You didn't say much about LGBTQ issues. 2093 01:42:05,400 --> 01:42:09,200 Speaker 1: He said, we had one mention of of transgender young people, 2094 01:42:09,800 --> 01:42:12,280 Speaker 1: but the bulk of the speech was on the economy 2095 01:42:12,360 --> 01:42:14,559 Speaker 1: on the he didn't even talk about Ukraine that much. 2096 01:42:15,080 --> 01:42:18,400 Speaker 1: It was at the bottom third. Well right, And so 2097 01:42:18,560 --> 01:42:21,400 Speaker 1: the I think Democrats have realized probably picked up on 2098 01:42:21,479 --> 01:42:24,360 Speaker 1: the number from the midterms, which the midterm narrative was 2099 01:42:24,680 --> 01:42:27,200 Speaker 1: one thing, but it is true. Republicans did have a 2100 01:42:28,000 --> 01:42:30,600 Speaker 1: decent night, not nearly what it was projected to be, 2101 01:42:30,720 --> 01:42:33,080 Speaker 1: but they did okay in the popular vote. So if 2102 01:42:33,160 --> 01:42:35,599 Speaker 1: Democrats see that, they do have a lot of culture 2103 01:42:35,640 --> 01:42:37,680 Speaker 1: war problems, there's just no question about it. You did 2104 01:42:37,680 --> 01:42:40,160 Speaker 1: a great podcast this week, un Deconstructed where you sort 2105 01:42:40,160 --> 01:42:42,839 Speaker 1: of talked through some of this. They do have those issues, 2106 01:42:43,120 --> 01:42:47,120 Speaker 1: but Republicans can't fight them in a way that handicaps 2107 01:42:47,200 --> 01:42:51,200 Speaker 1: themselves going into those battles. Biden doesn't give them a 2108 01:42:51,240 --> 01:42:54,719 Speaker 1: lot of ammunition. And I'm not aware of a national 2109 01:42:54,920 --> 01:42:57,400 Speaker 1: election that has ever been won on the question of 2110 01:42:57,640 --> 01:43:01,360 Speaker 1: what local schools should be or not teaching. That is 2111 01:43:01,439 --> 01:43:05,000 Speaker 1: our destiny, though, to have presidential elections hinge on who 2112 01:43:05,080 --> 01:43:08,320 Speaker 1: gets to play on the lacrosse across team like that? 2113 01:43:08,439 --> 01:43:11,599 Speaker 1: Will that will be like eventually where where this system 2114 01:43:11,680 --> 01:43:13,080 Speaker 1: is heading. I don't know if it'll be this one 2115 01:43:13,200 --> 01:43:15,120 Speaker 1: or four years from hour, but it's part of the 2116 01:43:15,280 --> 01:43:18,519 Speaker 1: like the process of just removing more and more decision 2117 01:43:18,560 --> 01:43:21,200 Speaker 1: making away from elections, and but you still have to 2118 01:43:21,240 --> 01:43:24,680 Speaker 1: give people something to fight over. But speaking of not 2119 01:43:24,760 --> 01:43:27,280 Speaker 1: havingything to fight over, it's like the Democratic Party seems 2120 01:43:27,360 --> 01:43:30,840 Speaker 1: like they don't have the civil war that they had 2121 01:43:31,200 --> 01:43:34,040 Speaker 1: over the last kind of six seven eight years. It's 2122 01:43:34,280 --> 01:43:37,439 Speaker 1: it was basically won by the establishment, with you know, 2123 01:43:37,520 --> 01:43:41,920 Speaker 1: Biden finally beating beating Bernie, but they also absorbed a 2124 01:43:42,040 --> 01:43:45,000 Speaker 1: decent amount of what Bernie was fighting for and so 2125 01:43:45,280 --> 01:43:47,800 Speaker 1: and so that's why you see so much frustration on 2126 01:43:47,880 --> 01:43:50,320 Speaker 1: the outside that Bernie's not fighting more than you know, 2127 01:43:50,400 --> 01:43:54,000 Speaker 1: Bernie's become a big supporter of Joe Biden. Because Bernie, 2128 01:43:54,120 --> 01:43:57,519 Speaker 1: as you know, budget chairman, is writing the reconciliation package. 2129 01:43:57,560 --> 01:44:00,320 Speaker 1: He's you know, he's he's seeing trillions of dollars of 2130 01:44:00,360 --> 01:44:05,760 Speaker 1: spending go through. You're seeing you know, unemployment knocked down 2131 01:44:05,840 --> 01:44:08,760 Speaker 1: to what three point four percent, lowest and lowest since 2132 01:44:08,800 --> 01:44:14,400 Speaker 1: like nineteen sixty nine, and so you have this. He 2133 01:44:14,479 --> 01:44:17,719 Speaker 1: talked about the nearly four hundred billion dollars in climate spending, 2134 01:44:17,800 --> 01:44:21,599 Speaker 1: and so he called himself a capitalist. Yeah, they say, yes, yes, right, exactly, 2135 01:44:21,680 --> 01:44:23,400 Speaker 1: so they kind of they kind of ended this civil 2136 01:44:23,400 --> 01:44:27,840 Speaker 1: war by a beating Bernie, but then b bringing in 2137 01:44:27,960 --> 01:44:29,800 Speaker 1: a decent amount of what he was fighting for, just 2138 01:44:29,960 --> 01:44:33,280 Speaker 1: enough to kind of keep them happy together. And because 2139 01:44:33,360 --> 01:44:37,040 Speaker 1: Democrats Democratic voters are so fired up about electability and 2140 01:44:37,320 --> 01:44:40,840 Speaker 1: beating the evil Republicans, you know, they're going to keep 2141 01:44:40,880 --> 01:44:45,120 Speaker 1: putting forward people like Biden probably, whereas Republicans still are, 2142 01:44:45,439 --> 01:44:48,519 Speaker 1: you know, fired by the by the cultural issues. And 2143 01:44:49,439 --> 01:44:53,000 Speaker 1: because I think they were told that Trump was unelectable, 2144 01:44:53,760 --> 01:44:56,360 Speaker 1: they said, screw it, we don't care. We're electing him anyway. 2145 01:44:56,760 --> 01:44:59,200 Speaker 1: And he got a nominating him anyway. He won. They 2146 01:44:59,240 --> 01:45:01,280 Speaker 1: don't they don't want to hear about electability crap. And yeah, 2147 01:45:01,280 --> 01:45:03,000 Speaker 1: I agree people, and they're not going to want to 2148 01:45:03,040 --> 01:45:04,560 Speaker 1: hear that for a long time ago. Emily, what do 2149 01:45:04,640 --> 01:45:08,560 Speaker 1: you see as the contours of the coming Republican I 2150 01:45:08,640 --> 01:45:11,280 Speaker 1: mean that the Republican Civil War is sort of upon us. 2151 01:45:11,479 --> 01:45:13,680 Speaker 1: You know, people are kind of choosing their sides and 2152 01:45:13,800 --> 01:45:16,840 Speaker 1: the battle lines are breaking down. But like, is there 2153 01:45:17,120 --> 01:45:21,200 Speaker 1: are there economic issues that are involved in that Republican 2154 01:45:21,280 --> 01:45:24,719 Speaker 1: Civil war? Is it primarily around culture war issues? Clearly, 2155 01:45:24,840 --> 01:45:27,280 Speaker 1: Ronda Santis is positioning himself as like the you know 2156 01:45:27,400 --> 01:45:29,080 Speaker 1: I was during COVID, I was the guy who was 2157 01:45:29,120 --> 01:45:31,920 Speaker 1: open for business. Donald Trump was shuting things down, whether 2158 01:45:32,040 --> 01:45:34,920 Speaker 1: or the facts of that whatever. That's how he's positioning himself. 2159 01:45:35,640 --> 01:45:37,439 Speaker 1: Is that going to be the key dividing line? How 2160 01:45:37,479 --> 01:45:39,360 Speaker 1: do you see this playing out? So it looks like 2161 01:45:39,439 --> 01:45:41,439 Speaker 1: Nikki Haley is going to announce formally and do a 2162 01:45:41,560 --> 01:45:44,040 Speaker 1: roll out next week, and that's already what I've seen 2163 01:45:44,120 --> 01:45:46,400 Speaker 1: some on the kind of new right talking about is like, 2164 01:45:46,520 --> 01:45:48,719 Speaker 1: what an embarrassment that this is just a tea party 2165 01:45:48,800 --> 01:45:52,680 Speaker 1: ghost who has not updated herself whatsoever. But then the 2166 01:45:52,800 --> 01:45:56,599 Speaker 1: question is what is the substantial difference between Ronda Santis 2167 01:45:56,720 --> 01:45:59,080 Speaker 1: and Nikki Haley? Because with Donald Trump, we know to 2168 01:45:59,200 --> 01:46:01,439 Speaker 1: some extent that it's just a mixed bag. It's the 2169 01:46:01,479 --> 01:46:03,400 Speaker 1: same thing with this foreign policy. You're going to get 2170 01:46:03,439 --> 01:46:07,080 Speaker 1: some new, some shocking new, and some of the old stuff. 2171 01:46:07,120 --> 01:46:09,760 Speaker 1: It depends on who wins the fight at any given moment, 2172 01:46:09,800 --> 01:46:12,000 Speaker 1: the tug of war at any given moment. But how 2173 01:46:12,120 --> 01:46:15,120 Speaker 1: substantially different is Ron De Santis or Glenn Younkin mister 2174 01:46:15,240 --> 01:46:18,920 Speaker 1: pe Patagonia vest going to be on that issue? And 2175 01:46:19,120 --> 01:46:21,640 Speaker 1: I think that's a really open question, and the primaries 2176 01:46:21,680 --> 01:46:23,479 Speaker 1: are going to be a place where that's sorted out. 2177 01:46:23,560 --> 01:46:27,000 Speaker 1: Because Republicans do face pressure now after Donald Trump, this 2178 01:46:27,120 --> 01:46:29,640 Speaker 1: is post Paul Ryan era. Not to do things to 2179 01:46:29,760 --> 01:46:32,519 Speaker 1: Social Security and Medicare like this is a huge source 2180 01:46:32,520 --> 01:46:34,920 Speaker 1: of pressure on Republicans. So I think a lot of 2181 01:46:35,000 --> 01:46:36,960 Speaker 1: it will be hashed out in the midterms. I think 2182 01:46:37,000 --> 01:46:39,120 Speaker 1: it's completely up in the air now. I think anybody 2183 01:46:39,160 --> 01:46:41,839 Speaker 1: who says the Republican Party has been, you know, permanently 2184 01:46:41,960 --> 01:46:44,240 Speaker 1: changed for good and turned into the party of the 2185 01:46:44,320 --> 01:46:48,080 Speaker 1: working class is absolutely wrong. That's not to say there 2186 01:46:48,160 --> 01:46:52,760 Speaker 1: isn't some reason for possible right Stoler talks about that 2187 01:46:52,960 --> 01:46:55,800 Speaker 1: like this is good for everybody. The Republican Party is 2188 01:46:55,880 --> 01:46:59,000 Speaker 1: never going to be a beautiful, wonderful, pure party of 2189 01:46:59,040 --> 01:47:01,479 Speaker 1: the working class. Not going to happen. The Democratic Party 2190 01:47:01,560 --> 01:47:03,120 Speaker 1: is not going to be either. One might be better 2191 01:47:03,160 --> 01:47:05,439 Speaker 1: than the other, but the Republican Party at least being 2192 01:47:05,720 --> 01:47:09,720 Speaker 1: dragged kicking and screaming to say things like, if we're 2193 01:47:09,720 --> 01:47:11,400 Speaker 1: going to balance the budget, we're not going to do 2194 01:47:11,439 --> 01:47:15,439 Speaker 1: it from stealing and rating from your entitlement funds. That's 2195 01:47:15,479 --> 01:47:18,160 Speaker 1: a good day for everyone. But the question is still open. 2196 01:47:18,280 --> 01:47:20,680 Speaker 1: I mean, I see that, and I don't because at 2197 01:47:20,720 --> 01:47:23,320 Speaker 1: the end of the day, the McCarthy holdouts also begged 2198 01:47:23,360 --> 01:47:26,160 Speaker 1: and demanded a vote for the freakin' fair tax, which 2199 01:47:26,240 --> 01:47:32,080 Speaker 1: is you know, terrible, terrible regressive, like total tea Party 2200 01:47:32,200 --> 01:47:35,679 Speaker 1: throwback stuff, and the whole contours of the debt sealing 2201 01:47:35,760 --> 01:47:38,840 Speaker 1: fight outside of them just not publicly wanting to be 2202 01:47:39,000 --> 01:47:42,280 Speaker 1: accused of cutting Social Security medicare. This is tea Party 2203 01:47:42,280 --> 01:47:44,120 Speaker 1: two point zero stuff. I mean, this is all tea 2204 01:47:44,160 --> 01:47:48,479 Speaker 1: Party tactics. Their asks are Tea Party asks. So it's 2205 01:47:48,880 --> 01:47:50,760 Speaker 1: you know, when I look at something like that, I'm like, 2206 01:47:51,920 --> 01:47:54,640 Speaker 1: this is really change, is really different because now that 2207 01:47:55,040 --> 01:47:59,120 Speaker 1: Trump is sort of less clearly in command too, you know, 2208 01:47:59,240 --> 01:48:02,280 Speaker 1: a lot of their talking points and their economic policy 2209 01:48:02,360 --> 01:48:05,320 Speaker 1: has just floated right back to that Mitt Romney, Paul 2210 01:48:05,400 --> 01:48:08,240 Speaker 1: Ryan Era ultimately, and I mean it's Trump himself. This 2211 01:48:08,280 --> 01:48:10,920 Speaker 1: biges accomplishment was a gigantic corporate tax gut that they 2212 01:48:10,960 --> 01:48:13,840 Speaker 1: all are perfectly happy with. Well and the other thing. 2213 01:48:14,360 --> 01:48:18,880 Speaker 1: You'll definitely have thoughts on this, but anti trust is huge, 2214 01:48:19,040 --> 01:48:21,720 Speaker 1: and I'm actually very curious if Sarahuckeby Sanders had a 2215 01:48:21,760 --> 01:48:26,040 Speaker 1: word about anti trust because Republicans have actually made significant motions. 2216 01:48:26,080 --> 01:48:28,120 Speaker 1: Some of the most powerful anti trust suits have been 2217 01:48:28,160 --> 01:48:31,960 Speaker 1: filed by people like Ken Paxton and Texas and the 2218 01:48:32,000 --> 01:48:36,400 Speaker 1: Trump administration against Google. There's some real meat on the bones. 2219 01:48:36,479 --> 01:48:38,599 Speaker 1: That's like one of the areas where there is actually 2220 01:48:38,800 --> 01:48:42,240 Speaker 1: truly a realignment. To borrow word from Soccer and Marshall 2221 01:48:42,520 --> 01:48:46,479 Speaker 1: that you can see happening. And what's who is is 2222 01:48:46,600 --> 01:48:49,439 Speaker 1: Ronda Santis, Sarah hackeby Sanders, is Nikki Haley? What are 2223 01:48:49,479 --> 01:48:51,679 Speaker 1: they going to say about that? How would they govern? 2224 01:48:51,840 --> 01:48:55,639 Speaker 1: That's a complete nicky had He's already on record against 2225 01:48:55,640 --> 01:48:58,360 Speaker 1: what was knocking her lane out on it. Now was 2226 01:48:58,680 --> 01:49:01,759 Speaker 1: not the time to rethink cap is what she famously 2227 01:49:01,840 --> 01:49:05,760 Speaker 1: said in her speech. So good luck, Nikki. I'm gonna 2228 01:49:05,800 --> 01:49:08,240 Speaker 1: enjoy watching you fail. I really will. I could say 2229 01:49:08,280 --> 01:49:10,680 Speaker 1: that as the Indian American who doesn't want to see 2230 01:49:10,720 --> 01:49:13,000 Speaker 1: you be the first one on the stage for all 2231 01:49:13,080 --> 01:49:16,519 Speaker 1: of us. But Ryan, I'm curious here also on the 2232 01:49:16,840 --> 01:49:20,320 Speaker 1: Democratic side. So at the end of the day, you 2233 01:49:20,400 --> 01:49:22,800 Speaker 1: know the laundry list of here's what I want and 2234 01:49:22,960 --> 01:49:25,519 Speaker 1: all this it's not going to happen. This was all 2235 01:49:25,840 --> 01:49:29,720 Speaker 1: just oppositional, So to that extent Biden we were talking 2236 01:49:29,720 --> 01:49:32,400 Speaker 1: about this is the kickoff of his campaign. It seems 2237 01:49:32,439 --> 01:49:34,840 Speaker 1: like it did pretty good job. Like overall, this is 2238 01:49:34,920 --> 01:49:37,479 Speaker 1: probably as good as you could probably hope for. And 2239 01:49:37,840 --> 01:49:40,000 Speaker 1: he didn't step into any of the pitfalls. I saw 2240 01:49:40,080 --> 01:49:42,840 Speaker 1: that he's on his way to Wisconsin and Florida. In Florida, 2241 01:49:42,840 --> 01:49:48,080 Speaker 1: I'd just be like, give up, mister president. That ship sailed, sir, Wisconsin. 2242 01:49:48,240 --> 01:49:51,360 Speaker 1: That's a smart move. But yeah, like going into those 2243 01:49:51,400 --> 01:49:53,640 Speaker 1: two states in the next couple of days, like this 2244 01:49:53,840 --> 01:49:56,000 Speaker 1: is probably going to be a pretty high point for him, 2245 01:49:56,320 --> 01:49:59,280 Speaker 1: and especially coming off the midterms. Right, there were two 2246 01:50:00,320 --> 01:50:03,280 Speaker 1: he could have taken. When when Republicans said we're going 2247 01:50:03,360 --> 01:50:05,960 Speaker 1: to hold the debt stealing hostage to force demands, he 2248 01:50:06,000 --> 01:50:09,800 Speaker 1: could have taken the last Joe Biden approach, which was great. 2249 01:50:09,960 --> 01:50:12,400 Speaker 1: You know, we all need to get together. We'll do 2250 01:50:12,479 --> 01:50:17,160 Speaker 1: a commission and Simpson bowls, Simpson balls, will hold hands together. 2251 01:50:17,200 --> 01:50:19,040 Speaker 1: I got Bruce Reid here, he was my staff guy 2252 01:50:19,080 --> 01:50:22,000 Speaker 1: and he's still in the White House. Yeah, dust the 2253 01:50:22,080 --> 01:50:25,799 Speaker 1: plans off, and yes, like people want to work longer, 2254 01:50:26,040 --> 01:50:29,640 Speaker 1: and Medicare is too generous, and Medicaid you know, you know, 2255 01:50:29,920 --> 01:50:32,920 Speaker 1: people people need to be incentivized to get back to work, 2256 01:50:33,040 --> 01:50:35,080 Speaker 1: like they could have been that Joe Biden, or it 2257 01:50:35,120 --> 01:50:37,360 Speaker 1: could be the Joe Biden that we saw tonight. It 2258 01:50:37,479 --> 01:50:42,160 Speaker 1: was like, who baits them with the Rick Scott plan? Uh, 2259 01:50:42,320 --> 01:50:43,920 Speaker 1: and then he could have baited them with the Kevin 2260 01:50:44,000 --> 01:50:46,200 Speaker 1: McCarthy plans, saying that we're going to strengthen solid security 2261 01:50:46,240 --> 01:50:48,880 Speaker 1: and medicare. He gets them to call him a liar, 2262 01:50:49,720 --> 01:50:51,519 Speaker 1: and he said, oh wait, we got a lot of 2263 01:50:51,600 --> 01:50:53,439 Speaker 1: converts here. I'm happy. So great, We're not going so 2264 01:50:53,840 --> 01:50:57,000 Speaker 1: so he goes the other direction and says we're not 2265 01:50:57,120 --> 01:50:59,360 Speaker 1: going to go down that path, which means that the 2266 01:50:59,680 --> 01:51:02,960 Speaker 1: bye who came out of the gate with the you know, 2267 01:51:03,240 --> 01:51:05,519 Speaker 1: he said, here's my offer on the American Rescue Plan 2268 01:51:05,640 --> 01:51:09,639 Speaker 1: one point nine trillion dollars, and Susan Collins comes back, 2269 01:51:10,120 --> 01:51:12,759 Speaker 1: She's like, here's our offer five hundred and fifty billion 2270 01:51:12,800 --> 01:51:15,479 Speaker 1: dollars or six hundred whatever it is. Two hours later, 2271 01:51:15,600 --> 01:51:18,120 Speaker 1: he puts out a statement. He's like, we're doing this alone. 2272 01:51:18,920 --> 01:51:21,800 Speaker 1: We're we're not taking six months like Obama did, and 2273 01:51:22,000 --> 01:51:25,599 Speaker 1: like allowing Susan Collins to just like dictate this to us. 2274 01:51:26,439 --> 01:51:30,840 Speaker 1: That was a shocking moment in like democratic political history 2275 01:51:31,120 --> 01:51:32,840 Speaker 1: when he did that. You know how he's been like 2276 01:51:33,080 --> 01:51:35,640 Speaker 1: conferring with John Meacham and trying to step into the 2277 01:51:35,760 --> 01:51:38,400 Speaker 1: FDR shoes. And this is like actually reported Access's head 2278 01:51:38,439 --> 01:51:41,760 Speaker 1: repelled right on Biden, like genuinely trying to rescue the 2279 01:51:41,800 --> 01:51:44,799 Speaker 1: soul of the nation and seeing himself as this FDR figure, 2280 01:51:45,240 --> 01:51:48,639 Speaker 1: not like FDR light but like FDR next generation truly. 2281 01:51:49,439 --> 01:51:50,800 Speaker 1: And he had a line in the speech where he 2282 01:51:50,840 --> 01:51:53,200 Speaker 1: talked about I think it's the Inflation Reduction Act provisions 2283 01:51:53,200 --> 01:51:56,000 Speaker 1: of it not going into effect until January one, So 2284 01:51:56,120 --> 01:51:58,840 Speaker 1: people are just starting to feel the economy heating up, 2285 01:51:58,880 --> 01:52:01,920 Speaker 1: and the economy is heating up in different ways, and 2286 01:52:02,080 --> 01:52:04,200 Speaker 1: that might explain the disconnect between the mood of the 2287 01:52:04,240 --> 01:52:07,479 Speaker 1: country and polling and what Biden sees as a hot 2288 01:52:07,560 --> 01:52:11,120 Speaker 1: economy or heating up economy. But to that point, is 2289 01:52:11,240 --> 01:52:15,599 Speaker 1: it some of that seeing him slotting himself into that character, 2290 01:52:15,880 --> 01:52:19,439 Speaker 1: this FDR like figure, that has made him say I'm 2291 01:52:19,479 --> 01:52:21,360 Speaker 1: not the old Joe Biden. Screw it, We're not waiting 2292 01:52:21,400 --> 01:52:23,559 Speaker 1: for Susan Collins. But at the same time, he did 2293 01:52:23,640 --> 01:52:26,400 Speaker 1: say Republican friends over and over again in that speech. 2294 01:52:26,840 --> 01:52:30,559 Speaker 1: Notice that I mean this is in particular a real 2295 01:52:30,680 --> 01:52:33,479 Speaker 1: break from the old Joe Biden. Here's the line from 2296 01:52:33,520 --> 01:52:36,080 Speaker 1: the speech. If anyone tries to cut Social Security, I 2297 01:52:36,240 --> 01:52:38,640 Speaker 1: will stop them. If anyone tries to cut Medicare, I 2298 01:52:38,760 --> 01:52:40,640 Speaker 1: will stop them. I will not allow them to be 2299 01:52:40,720 --> 01:52:42,960 Speaker 1: taken away, not stay, not tomorrow, or not ever. Now 2300 01:52:44,240 --> 01:52:46,479 Speaker 1: he doesn't say, and they're not yesterday, because he's not 2301 01:52:47,160 --> 01:52:50,639 Speaker 1: multiple times for forty years, I tried to cut Social Security. 2302 01:52:50,920 --> 01:52:54,439 Speaker 1: But if you no, not tomorrow, not ever, take a 2303 01:52:54,479 --> 01:52:58,639 Speaker 1: week future. Yes, So yeah, I mean, listen, I don't 2304 01:52:58,640 --> 01:53:01,360 Speaker 1: want to overseell it because is on the other hand, 2305 01:53:01,640 --> 01:53:04,280 Speaker 1: you know, went ont of his way to like bust 2306 01:53:04,400 --> 01:53:07,880 Speaker 1: the potential rail strike and hand power to the bosses there, 2307 01:53:08,000 --> 01:53:11,519 Speaker 1: like hasn't fought for lifting the minimum wage. You know 2308 01:53:12,040 --> 01:53:14,479 Speaker 1: mentioned the pro act here that fell up the table, 2309 01:53:15,000 --> 01:53:18,479 Speaker 1: didn't really put the screws to mansion and cinema over 2310 01:53:18,680 --> 01:53:21,040 Speaker 1: build back better. And so you know, we were all 2311 01:53:21,120 --> 01:53:23,720 Speaker 1: happy when we got something in the Inflation Reduction Act. 2312 01:53:23,800 --> 01:53:28,000 Speaker 1: But it's easy to forget how much the actual original 2313 01:53:28,200 --> 01:53:32,160 Speaker 1: vision was trimmed by a lack of willingness to play 2314 01:53:32,240 --> 01:53:34,960 Speaker 1: hardball and willingness to like just accept the rulings of 2315 01:53:35,000 --> 01:53:37,680 Speaker 1: the parliamentarian and things like that. So I don't want 2316 01:53:37,720 --> 01:53:39,920 Speaker 1: to oversell it here, but I do think there are 2317 01:53:40,000 --> 01:53:43,840 Speaker 1: some noteworthy shifts in terms of I mean even just 2318 01:53:44,120 --> 01:53:49,160 Speaker 1: industrial policy and anti trust. These were like antitrust, I mean, 2319 01:53:49,200 --> 01:53:53,120 Speaker 1: the Obama administration was terrible on anti trust, terrible, allowed 2320 01:53:53,160 --> 01:53:55,200 Speaker 1: some of these gigantic mergers to go through that now 2321 01:53:55,240 --> 01:53:59,799 Speaker 1: people are raging about, right the Ticketmaster being a primary example. 2322 01:54:00,760 --> 01:54:05,040 Speaker 1: And you know so industrial policy was basically a dirty 2323 01:54:05,120 --> 01:54:08,320 Speaker 1: word in both parties for my entire life until now, 2324 01:54:08,520 --> 01:54:11,280 Speaker 1: up until literally I think three years ago. I really 2325 01:54:11,320 --> 01:54:14,040 Speaker 1: when bidenrew. Do you remember when Biden put out what 2326 01:54:14,160 --> 01:54:16,200 Speaker 1: was it like, Maid in America plan? I praised it 2327 01:54:16,240 --> 01:54:18,280 Speaker 1: on Rising in here. I was like, hey, listen, that's 2328 01:54:18,280 --> 01:54:19,960 Speaker 1: pretty good. I was like, you can say you whatever, 2329 01:54:20,200 --> 01:54:22,840 Speaker 1: you know. I was like, by the way, I was like, Jared, 2330 01:54:23,000 --> 01:54:27,040 Speaker 1: please release the Maiden America thing from the National Security Council, 2331 01:54:27,080 --> 01:54:29,280 Speaker 1: which I know that you held up for two years 2332 01:54:29,280 --> 01:54:31,719 Speaker 1: and then didn't end up passing for literally no reason. 2333 01:54:32,000 --> 01:54:34,440 Speaker 1: So in a lot of ways for Trump, this is 2334 01:54:34,600 --> 01:54:37,320 Speaker 1: dangerous territory. I mean, Biden is taking the two most 2335 01:54:37,360 --> 01:54:40,680 Speaker 1: singular popular things that he did, which was China and 2336 01:54:40,800 --> 01:54:42,880 Speaker 1: it was made in America. Look at that, you know 2337 01:54:43,280 --> 01:54:45,240 Speaker 1: the way that he talked about China and the speech 2338 01:54:45,320 --> 01:54:47,640 Speaker 1: and then not much, No, he didn't talk about it much. 2339 01:54:47,680 --> 01:54:50,320 Speaker 1: But look he did not say that what seven years ago. 2340 01:54:50,680 --> 01:54:52,800 Speaker 1: What he was trying to say in that whole switch 2341 01:54:52,840 --> 01:54:55,720 Speaker 1: places which she I speak by niece, is because I 2342 01:54:55,920 --> 01:54:58,960 Speaker 1: used to watch him whenever he was coherent, and he 2343 01:54:59,000 --> 01:55:01,080 Speaker 1: would always talk about he was one of those people. 2344 01:55:01,280 --> 01:55:03,960 Speaker 1: He was so pro engagement with China. He often says this, 2345 01:55:04,040 --> 01:55:07,000 Speaker 1: I'm the only person I've spent more hours with Shishiping 2346 01:55:07,120 --> 01:55:09,680 Speaker 1: than any other Western leader in the world. I've sat 2347 01:55:09,760 --> 01:55:11,640 Speaker 1: there and I've talked with him across the table. That 2348 01:55:11,720 --> 01:55:13,640 Speaker 1: was his big selling point. He was so excited here. 2349 01:55:13,800 --> 01:55:15,600 Speaker 1: Oh I know. Yeah, Actually there was a lot of 2350 01:55:15,600 --> 01:55:20,040 Speaker 1: business dealings going on. That was Sid's all on air 2351 01:55:20,080 --> 01:55:22,600 Speaker 1: force too. Another story for another day, of which we 2352 01:55:22,720 --> 01:55:25,000 Speaker 1: have covered several times. But the point is is that 2353 01:55:25,160 --> 01:55:28,760 Speaker 1: he has gone from engagement to confrontation. Clearly that is 2354 01:55:29,240 --> 01:55:32,160 Speaker 1: without Trump, that doesn't happen. And he's also now gone 2355 01:55:32,400 --> 01:55:36,360 Speaker 1: completely with Made in America, the full embrace of all that. 2356 01:55:36,680 --> 01:55:38,160 Speaker 1: I do want to know who he is, he goes 2357 01:55:38,400 --> 01:55:40,480 Speaker 1: Many people don't like when I say this, but we're 2358 01:55:40,520 --> 01:55:42,880 Speaker 1: gonna buy American. I'm like, who is saying that, Like 2359 01:55:43,240 --> 01:55:47,120 Speaker 1: outside of like JP Morgan CEO, who is saying that. 2360 01:55:47,240 --> 01:55:51,240 Speaker 1: I'm like, I like that. Most people like that. Larry Summers, Yeah, okay, 2361 01:55:52,120 --> 01:55:55,240 Speaker 1: got some got some flap in the country class. One 2362 01:55:55,400 --> 01:55:57,520 Speaker 1: last thought and then I want to hear you guys' 2363 01:55:57,560 --> 01:55:59,480 Speaker 1: final thoughts as well. But you know, one thing we 2364 01:55:59,520 --> 01:56:02,280 Speaker 1: talked about going into this, which maybe it shouldn't matter, 2365 01:56:02,360 --> 01:56:04,840 Speaker 1: maybe it should matter. I think it's reasonable for people 2366 01:56:04,920 --> 01:56:07,160 Speaker 1: to have concerns about a man who would be eighty 2367 01:56:07,240 --> 01:56:09,880 Speaker 1: six by the end of a next term. And so 2368 01:56:10,400 --> 01:56:12,960 Speaker 1: as much as The New York Times was running a 2369 01:56:13,000 --> 01:56:15,280 Speaker 1: story that I know as planned by Biden, aied's about 2370 01:56:15,320 --> 01:56:18,120 Speaker 1: how he's preparing to overcome a stutter in this speech, 2371 01:56:19,440 --> 01:56:21,400 Speaker 1: sort of trying to set the bar low that if 2372 01:56:21,440 --> 01:56:24,000 Speaker 1: it doesn't go well, don't be an asshole. It's because 2373 01:56:24,000 --> 01:56:25,920 Speaker 1: he has a stutter. It's not because he's old. Guys 2374 01:56:26,040 --> 01:56:29,360 Speaker 1: don't say that, but ultimately, you know, I mean, he's 2375 01:56:29,400 --> 01:56:31,720 Speaker 1: still Joe Biden at eighty years old. It's still not 2376 01:56:31,840 --> 01:56:34,160 Speaker 1: what he used to be. It wasn't like an incredibly 2377 01:56:34,440 --> 01:56:38,600 Speaker 1: masterful oratory, But Ryan, I think, you know, in terms 2378 01:56:38,600 --> 01:56:41,080 Speaker 1: of what he's capable of, this was a pretty well 2379 01:56:41,120 --> 01:56:44,880 Speaker 1: delivered speech, and as Emily was saying, you know, being 2380 01:56:44,920 --> 01:56:47,120 Speaker 1: able to do a little give and take with the audience. 2381 01:56:47,320 --> 01:56:50,440 Speaker 1: That's not easy to do. So I think also he 2382 01:56:50,600 --> 01:56:54,440 Speaker 1: did himself some favors in terms of persuading people that 2383 01:56:54,720 --> 01:56:57,400 Speaker 1: this is a man who is still capable of conducting 2384 01:56:57,480 --> 01:56:59,680 Speaker 1: the business of the presidency and that we're not all 2385 01:56:59,720 --> 01:57:01,440 Speaker 1: going to be left in the hands of Kambla Harris 2386 01:57:01,480 --> 01:57:05,720 Speaker 1: your god. I think we're also starting to all grade 2387 01:57:05,800 --> 01:57:09,080 Speaker 1: him on a curve relative to what we expect from him. Like, 2388 01:57:09,240 --> 01:57:11,680 Speaker 1: I think he has successfully set the bar really low 2389 01:57:12,040 --> 01:57:15,920 Speaker 1: his public performances. Every time he tried to go off 2390 01:57:16,040 --> 01:57:19,600 Speaker 1: the teleprompter, off script with a little riff. Yeah, you're 2391 01:57:19,640 --> 01:57:23,120 Speaker 1: almost holding your breath for him. Outside of the Medicare thing, 2392 01:57:23,320 --> 01:57:26,480 Speaker 1: they were all bad, every single one. He starts out 2393 01:57:26,560 --> 01:57:28,960 Speaker 1: by saying, I get to be here because Jill's going 2394 01:57:29,040 --> 01:57:32,440 Speaker 1: to get the game Marwin anyway, So are you talking 2395 01:57:32,440 --> 01:57:40,040 Speaker 1: about the Super Bowl and the Eagles. Yeah, you have 2396 01:57:40,200 --> 01:57:45,680 Speaker 1: Donovan McNabb perform like he should. He should have He 2397 01:57:45,760 --> 01:57:47,560 Speaker 1: should have finished with the go birds at the end, 2398 01:57:47,960 --> 01:57:53,040 Speaker 1: because he's not winning miss doctor a doctor saying flag. Yes, 2399 01:57:54,800 --> 01:57:56,440 Speaker 1: well on that point, and he did seem to get 2400 01:57:56,520 --> 01:58:00,040 Speaker 1: Tyree Nichols name wrong. It wasn't Oldham Tyler, but it 2401 01:58:00,120 --> 01:58:02,960 Speaker 1: wasn't great sounding like Tyler. Yeah, it wasn't a perfect performance. 2402 01:58:03,320 --> 01:58:05,120 Speaker 1: But I do think that because the bar is so 2403 01:58:05,240 --> 01:58:08,120 Speaker 1: low for him every time he clears it and looks 2404 01:58:08,240 --> 01:58:11,800 Speaker 1: like he can give a normal presidential speech for an hour. Again, 2405 01:58:11,880 --> 01:58:13,520 Speaker 1: because the bar is so low. And part of that, 2406 01:58:13,600 --> 01:58:16,800 Speaker 1: by the way, is because Donald Trump was the preceding president. 2407 01:58:16,960 --> 01:58:19,640 Speaker 1: That's good, and Donald Trump's State of the Unions tended 2408 01:58:19,680 --> 01:58:22,520 Speaker 1: to be pretty boilerplate and conventional. That wasn't true of 2409 01:58:22,520 --> 01:58:25,160 Speaker 1: the rest of his communications. So Joe Biden being able 2410 01:58:25,200 --> 01:58:27,360 Speaker 1: to just give a speech for an hour, talk about 2411 01:58:27,400 --> 01:58:30,600 Speaker 1: his Republican friends and make America at least sort of 2412 01:58:30,840 --> 01:58:33,760 Speaker 1: be back in the political theater that people are comfortable with, 2413 01:58:34,240 --> 01:58:37,560 Speaker 1: I guess that's a win for him. Yeah, all right, okay, guys, 2414 01:58:37,600 --> 01:58:39,680 Speaker 1: thank you so much for your analysis. I hope everybody 2415 01:58:39,880 --> 01:58:43,080 Speaker 1: enjoyed this stream. Thank you so much also to our 2416 01:58:43,120 --> 01:58:45,680 Speaker 1: premium members who help support the show. And keep all 2417 01:58:45,720 --> 01:58:47,400 Speaker 1: of these things going. They are expensive to put on, 2418 01:58:47,520 --> 01:58:50,240 Speaker 1: so we really much appreciate you and we love you all. 2419 01:58:50,320 --> 01:58:52,360 Speaker 1: We're going to have some content for you guys tomorrow. 2420 01:58:52,720 --> 01:58:57,120 Speaker 1: Hint it involves a congressman attacking Crystal Ball, my partner 2421 01:58:57,160 --> 01:59:01,160 Speaker 1: over here, and Joe Rogan as a vicious, vicious attack, 2422 01:59:01,280 --> 01:59:03,800 Speaker 1: calling them anti Semitic. We will get into all of 2423 01:59:03,880 --> 01:59:06,600 Speaker 1: that tomorrow. We'll have a full show for everybody on Thursday, 2424 01:59:06,680 --> 01:59:08,840 Speaker 1: lots of great content in the interim, and we will 2425 01:59:08,880 --> 01:59:09,760 Speaker 1: see you all later